WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.940 We are tracking a weather system of truly historic, 00:00:05.240 --> 00:00:07.679 frankly terrifying dimensions this week down 00:00:07.679 --> 00:00:10.060 in the Caribbean. Yeah, it's really shaping up 00:00:10.060 --> 00:00:12.800 to be a major event. Our focus today is entirely 00:00:12.800 --> 00:00:16.300 on Hurricane Melissa. It's a storm that has just 00:00:16.300 --> 00:00:19.000 exploded in intensity over these incredibly warm 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:21.320 waters. Record waters, yeah. And now it looks 00:00:21.320 --> 00:00:24.000 like it's aiming to become potentially the strongest 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:26.370 storm ever recorded to hit Jamaica. That's the 00:00:26.370 --> 00:00:29.570 forecast and it's deeply concerning. We're going 00:00:29.570 --> 00:00:31.769 beyond just the wind speed today. We want to 00:00:31.769 --> 00:00:33.969 look at how the physics, the geography of the 00:00:33.969 --> 00:00:36.609 islands and, well, human vulnerability are all 00:00:36.609 --> 00:00:38.990 converging. It looks like a real worst case scenario 00:00:38.990 --> 00:00:40.890 brewing. It really does. The ingredients are 00:00:40.890 --> 00:00:43.670 all there. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the 00:00:43.670 --> 00:00:45.990 podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos 00:00:45.990 --> 00:00:47.929 and stories behind the weather that shapes our 00:00:47.929 --> 00:00:50.130 world. This show was created by meteorologist 00:00:50.130 --> 00:00:52.329 Rob Jones, and we're doing something new this 00:00:52.329 --> 00:00:54.310 season, offering every episode in English and 00:00:54.310 --> 00:00:56.229 Spanish. Yeah, that's right. Same stories, two 00:00:56.229 --> 00:00:58.969 languages. Why? Because weather impacts everyone 00:00:58.969 --> 00:01:01.570 and science should speak to all of us. But here's 00:01:01.570 --> 00:01:03.469 where you come in. We want to know what you think. 00:01:03.969 --> 00:01:07.370 Is this bilingual setup awesome, confusing, totally 00:01:07.370 --> 00:01:09.870 unnecessary? Tell us straight up on social media. 00:01:09.870 --> 00:01:12.590 Comment, like, share or DM us and let it rip. 00:01:13.150 --> 00:01:16.290 Now let's get into today's episode of Meteorology 00:01:16.290 --> 00:01:20.230 Matters. OK, so as of right now, Sunday, October 00:01:20.230 --> 00:01:23.150 26th, 2025, the picture from the National Hurricane 00:01:23.150 --> 00:01:25.739 Center is, well, it's urgent. It's extremely 00:01:25.739 --> 00:01:28.000 dire. Hurricane Melissa is sitting there as this 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.620 monster category four storm. Winds are packing 00:01:30.620 --> 00:01:33.599 140 miles per hour sustained. A very powerful 00:01:33.599 --> 00:01:36.519 cat four. And its location is critical. It's 00:01:36.519 --> 00:01:39.560 about 110 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. That's 00:01:39.560 --> 00:01:41.620 right. Close enough to be an imminent threat. 00:01:41.799 --> 00:01:43.939 But the immediate danger isn't just that distance, 00:01:43.980 --> 00:01:47.680 is it? It's the speed. or lack thereof. Exactly. 00:01:48.019 --> 00:01:53.780 That slow pace is arguably the single most devastating 00:01:53.780 --> 00:01:56.799 factor in this whole setup. Melissa is moving 00:01:56.799 --> 00:01:59.060 at what the National Hurricane Center is calling 00:01:59.060 --> 00:02:02.959 a near snail's pace. We're talking three to five 00:02:02.959 --> 00:02:05.810 miles per hour. just crawling. Three to five 00:02:05.810 --> 00:02:08.370 miles per hour. Yeah. And when you have a storm 00:02:08.370 --> 00:02:11.830 this intense moving that slowly, think about 00:02:11.830 --> 00:02:15.629 the duration, the extreme wind just stays and 00:02:15.629 --> 00:02:18.009 stays. And maybe even more importantly, the rainfall. 00:02:18.150 --> 00:02:20.330 Oh, the rainfall. The volume of rain dumped over 00:02:20.330 --> 00:02:22.770 one single area gets multiplied exponentially. 00:02:23.189 --> 00:02:25.069 You're not just getting a quick hit. You're facing 00:02:25.069 --> 00:02:28.990 this hours long sustained siege. A siege. That's 00:02:28.990 --> 00:02:30.669 a good word for it. Yeah. And the forecast track 00:02:30.669 --> 00:02:33.330 is bringing this slow moving monster Right towards 00:02:33.330 --> 00:02:35.250 Jamaica. Yeah, it's expected to keep drifting 00:02:35.250 --> 00:02:38.469 west very slowly for maybe a few more hours, 00:02:38.669 --> 00:02:40.530 just kind of sitting over that extremely warm 00:02:40.530 --> 00:02:42.270 water, probably gathering even more strength. 00:02:42.370 --> 00:02:44.229 Building strength. And then comes the pivot, 00:02:44.469 --> 00:02:47.090 the anticipated turn. OK, when do we expect that? 00:02:47.270 --> 00:02:49.789 We expect that turn towards the north and northeast 00:02:49.789 --> 00:02:52.870 to really begin on Monday. And that track brings 00:02:52.870 --> 00:02:55.909 the catastrophic core of the storm. You know, 00:02:55.969 --> 00:02:59.189 the tight inner eye wall with the absolute strongest 00:02:59.189 --> 00:03:02.330 winds near or over Jamaica. That's the official 00:03:02.330 --> 00:03:05.210 wording. Late Monday into the early hours of 00:03:05.210 --> 00:03:07.409 Tuesday morning. Late Monday, early Tuesday. 00:03:07.550 --> 00:03:10.870 And the big concern here is that it keeps intensifying 00:03:10.870 --> 00:03:13.610 during the slow crawl towards the island. That's 00:03:13.610 --> 00:03:16.210 the key concern. Continued intensification. So 00:03:16.210 --> 00:03:17.949 let's talk about that intensity prediction, because 00:03:17.949 --> 00:03:20.090 this is where Melissa really seems to be separating 00:03:20.090 --> 00:03:22.789 itself from. Well. from history in Jamaica. It's 00:03:22.789 --> 00:03:25.370 already a beast at Cat 4. A strong Cat 4, yes. 00:03:25.409 --> 00:03:28.710 But the consensus among the highest -end weather 00:03:28.710 --> 00:03:31.330 models, the research we're seeing, is that strengthening 00:03:31.330 --> 00:03:34.810 isn't just expected. It's likely to reach the 00:03:34.810 --> 00:03:37.930 very top of the Saffir -Simpson scale. Yes. The 00:03:37.930 --> 00:03:40.449 forecasts are now explicitly predicting Melissa 00:03:40.449 --> 00:03:43.189 will achieve catastrophic Category 5 Intensity, 00:03:43.189 --> 00:03:46.370 either right before or potentially right as it 00:03:46.370 --> 00:03:49.030 makes its closest approach or landfall on Jamaica. 00:03:49.129 --> 00:03:52.169 And if that happens? If that happens, Melissa 00:03:52.169 --> 00:03:54.849 won't just rival the strongest storms in Jamaica's 00:03:54.849 --> 00:03:57.770 history. It will officially surpass all recorded 00:03:57.770 --> 00:04:00.550 historical storms to hit the island. It would 00:04:00.550 --> 00:04:03.590 be the strongest on record. Strongest on record. 00:04:03.740 --> 00:04:06.599 We have to compare this inevitably to Hurricane 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:09.780 Gilbert back in 1988. That's the benchmark, right? 00:04:10.099 --> 00:04:12.219 The storm everyone remembers for the devastation 00:04:12.219 --> 00:04:14.659 it caused. Gilbert is definitely the historical 00:04:14.659 --> 00:04:18.319 benchmark. An intense, devastating storm. But 00:04:18.319 --> 00:04:20.379 structurally, Melissa looks like it could present 00:04:20.379 --> 00:04:22.939 an even more concentrated, maybe more severe 00:04:22.939 --> 00:04:25.680 threat in some ways. How so? Well, Gilbert's 00:04:25.680 --> 00:04:28.620 intensity was horrific, no question. But Melissa's 00:04:28.620 --> 00:04:31.079 sustained wind speeds are forecast to be significantly 00:04:31.079 --> 00:04:33.910 stronger. We're talking about potentially crossing 00:04:33.910 --> 00:04:37.069 that 157 mile per hour threshold for Cat 5. OK, 00:04:37.290 --> 00:04:39.189 stronger winds. But maybe the bigger difference 00:04:39.189 --> 00:04:42.769 is the damage corridor. Gilbert essentially raked 00:04:42.769 --> 00:04:44.949 the whole island from east to west. It spread 00:04:44.949 --> 00:04:47.370 its worst impacts over a longer path. Right, 00:04:47.490 --> 00:04:49.670 I remember that track. Melissa, because it's 00:04:49.670 --> 00:04:51.990 forecast to turn north, is carving this narrower 00:04:51.990 --> 00:04:55.129 but incredibly intense path, sort of a south 00:04:55.129 --> 00:04:58.540 to north corridor. OK. And that path looks set 00:04:58.540 --> 00:05:01.519 to directly impact major population centers, 00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:04.500 critical infrastructure particularly along that 00:05:04.500 --> 00:05:07.300 south coast with the absolute worst of the eye 00:05:07.300 --> 00:05:09.930 wall. It's like a focused perpendicular assault. 00:05:10.310 --> 00:05:12.370 So instead of spreading the damage, it's concentrating 00:05:12.370 --> 00:05:15.129 the maximum energy on one area, including Kingston, 00:05:15.329 --> 00:05:17.769 potentially. Exactly. It delivers the maximum 00:05:17.769 --> 00:05:20.009 kinetic energy, the maximum force to structures 00:05:20.009 --> 00:05:23.129 in that narrower zone. The gravity of this, it's 00:05:23.129 --> 00:05:24.850 really reflected in the language coming out of 00:05:24.850 --> 00:05:26.470 the National Hurricane Center, isn't it? They're 00:05:26.470 --> 00:05:29.110 not mincing words. No, they've abandoned the 00:05:29.110 --> 00:05:32.410 usual sort of measured meteorological tone. It's 00:05:32.410 --> 00:05:35.550 a clear, urgent message now. They're saying time 00:05:35.550 --> 00:05:37.930 has essentially run out. for people to prepare. 00:05:38.089 --> 00:05:40.470 Run out. And they are telling every resident 00:05:40.470 --> 00:05:43.629 in the potential path to seek shelter now, not 00:05:43.629 --> 00:05:46.490 tomorrow, not later today, now. Seek shelter 00:05:46.490 --> 00:05:49.230 now. And the warnings about the consequences, 00:05:49.290 --> 00:05:51.910 what happens after the storm, are just as stark. 00:05:52.110 --> 00:05:54.009 Equally stark. They're talking about extensive 00:05:54.009 --> 00:05:56.490 infrastructural damage. And that's not just homes. 00:05:57.009 --> 00:06:00.149 That's major roads, bridges, ports, the power 00:06:00.149 --> 00:06:04.319 grid. everything, which leads directly to long 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:07.829 duration power and communication outages. We 00:06:07.829 --> 00:06:10.750 could be talking weeks, maybe longer in the hardest 00:06:10.750 --> 00:06:13.550 hit areas. Weeks without power or communication. 00:06:13.790 --> 00:06:16.790 And critically, this leads to prolonged isolation 00:06:16.790 --> 00:06:18.930 of communities. If roads are out, bridges are 00:06:18.930 --> 00:06:21.410 down, communication is gone. Help can't get in. 00:06:21.670 --> 00:06:25.110 Exactly. Rescue and relief efforts become incredibly 00:06:25.110 --> 00:06:28.370 difficult, maybe impossible, for days after the 00:06:28.370 --> 00:06:30.730 storm finally moves away. And that prolonged 00:06:30.730 --> 00:06:33.769 isolation... directly impacts the advice they're 00:06:33.769 --> 00:06:35.829 giving now, right? It's very specific about where 00:06:35.829 --> 00:06:38.589 to shelter. Highly specific. People absolutely 00:06:38.589 --> 00:06:41.269 must find shelter in sturdy concrete buildings, 00:06:41.769 --> 00:06:45.009 not wood, not flimsy structures, concrete. And 00:06:45.009 --> 00:06:47.389 crucially, above potential floodwaters. Above 00:06:47.389 --> 00:06:50.189 any potential floodwaters, storm surge and freshwater 00:06:50.189 --> 00:06:52.730 flooding are both extreme threats here. And the 00:06:52.730 --> 00:06:54.970 duration. They're saying people need to be prepared 00:06:54.970 --> 00:06:57.269 to stay put for a long time. Yeah, that duration 00:06:57.269 --> 00:07:00.430 of stay is key. The advice is clear. People might 00:07:00.430 --> 00:07:02.589 need to remain sheltered, completely self -sufficient, 00:07:03.170 --> 00:07:06.920 for over 24 hours straight. Think about it. With 00:07:06.920 --> 00:07:09.199 Melissa moving at that three to five mile per 00:07:09.199 --> 00:07:12.379 hour pace, just the inner core, the eye wall 00:07:12.379 --> 00:07:15.100 and the most intense surrounding bands could 00:07:15.100 --> 00:07:18.779 take 12, maybe 18 hours just to pass over a single 00:07:18.779 --> 00:07:21.060 point on the island. Wow. And that's not even 00:07:21.060 --> 00:07:22.939 counting the hours of tropical storm conditions 00:07:22.939 --> 00:07:25.360 before and after. So yeah, you absolutely need 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:28.759 enough food, water, medication, everything for 00:07:28.759 --> 00:07:31.279 a full day, maybe longer, while the absolute 00:07:31.279 --> 00:07:34.139 worst is happening outside. Okay, let's shift 00:07:34.139 --> 00:07:36.800 focus slightly to the water threats because with 00:07:36.800 --> 00:07:39.939 a slow -moving, intense hurricane hitting mountainous 00:07:39.939 --> 00:07:42.800 islands like Jamaica, like Haiti, the rainfall 00:07:42.800 --> 00:07:44.579 is often the biggest killer, isn't it? Sometimes 00:07:44.579 --> 00:07:47.139 even more than the wind. It absolutely is. The 00:07:47.139 --> 00:07:49.500 hydrological risk here is paramount. Melissa 00:07:49.500 --> 00:07:51.899 is forecast to bring volumes of water that are 00:07:51.899 --> 00:07:53.779 almost difficult to comprehend. The numbers I 00:07:53.779 --> 00:07:55.899 saw were staggering. They are. We're looking 00:07:55.899 --> 00:07:58.600 at widespread storm totals across the whole affected 00:07:58.600 --> 00:08:01.480 region of 15 to 30 inches of rain that's forecast 00:08:01.480 --> 00:08:04.300 through Wednesday. 15 to 30 inches widespread. 00:08:04.500 --> 00:08:06.759 That alone is massive. But the real headline 00:08:06.759 --> 00:08:09.879 is the local maxima. The potential in certain 00:08:09.879 --> 00:08:11.939 spots, especially where the terrain enhances 00:08:11.939 --> 00:08:15.079 the rainfall. We are talking about the possibility 00:08:15.079 --> 00:08:18.980 of 40 inches or more of rain. Locally. 40 inches. 00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:20.959 Can you put that into context for us? What does 00:08:20.959 --> 00:08:23.459 40 inches of rain actually look like? Well, when 00:08:23.459 --> 00:08:25.879 you start getting numbers like 30 or 40 inches 00:08:25.879 --> 00:08:28.439 from a single storm system, you really have to 00:08:28.439 --> 00:08:30.540 stop thinking in inches. You're measuring rainfall 00:08:30.540 --> 00:08:34.250 in feet. Feet of rain. 40 inches is three and 00:08:34.250 --> 00:08:36.870 a third feet of water falling out of the sky 00:08:36.870 --> 00:08:39.649 onto the land, potentially over just 48 hours 00:08:39.649 --> 00:08:42.169 or so. Unbelievable. And that incredible volume 00:08:42.169 --> 00:08:45.309 is a direct result of two things. Melissa's slow 00:08:45.309 --> 00:08:48.250 forward speed, just sitting there raining, and 00:08:48.250 --> 00:08:51.210 the extremely efficient moisture generating engine 00:08:51.210 --> 00:08:53.889 of a near category five hurricane sucking up 00:08:53.889 --> 00:08:55.629 all that tropical moisture. And there's another 00:08:55.629 --> 00:08:58.129 factor, isn't there? The ground conditions before 00:08:58.129 --> 00:09:00.570 Melissa even gets there. That's a critical compound. 00:09:00.460 --> 00:09:03.840 The ground across much of Jamaica and Hispaniola 00:09:03.840 --> 00:09:06.980 is already saturated from previous smaller weather 00:09:06.980 --> 00:09:08.840 systems that have moved through recently. So 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:11.580 it can't soak up any more water. Exactly. That 00:09:11.580 --> 00:09:14.360 pre -existing saturation basically removes the 00:09:14.360 --> 00:09:16.919 soil's ability to absorb any significant new 00:09:16.919 --> 00:09:20.039 rainfall. It means nearly all of this torrential 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:23.220 rain immediately becomes surface runoff. overwhelming 00:09:23.220 --> 00:09:25.639 immediate runoff. And that overwhelming runoff 00:09:25.639 --> 00:09:28.500 hits the specific geology of Jamaica, which is 00:09:28.500 --> 00:09:31.460 highly vulnerable. Jamaica is mountainous, characterized 00:09:31.460 --> 00:09:34.279 by very steep slopes, high elevation changes, 00:09:34.659 --> 00:09:37.419 deep valleys, a recipe for disaster with that 00:09:37.419 --> 00:09:40.909 much water. It's extremely conducive to catastrophic 00:09:40.909 --> 00:09:43.330 flash flooding in the valleys and rivers and 00:09:43.330 --> 00:09:46.350 numerous widespread, potentially massive landslides 00:09:46.350 --> 00:09:48.789 on those steep slopes. Landslides. We're looking 00:09:48.789 --> 00:09:51.049 at what meteorologists call a compounding event. 00:09:51.570 --> 00:09:53.830 The torrential rain saturates the mountainsides. 00:09:53.990 --> 00:09:56.049 The immense weight of that water overcomes the 00:09:56.049 --> 00:09:58.529 soil's friction. And you get huge amounts of 00:09:58.529 --> 00:10:01.990 earth. rock debris just letting go and sliding 00:10:01.990 --> 00:10:03.870 downhill. And that doesn't just block roads. 00:10:04.149 --> 00:10:06.590 No, it can wipe out entire homes, entire communities 00:10:06.590 --> 00:10:09.690 built on or below those slopes. It isolates regions 00:10:09.690 --> 00:10:12.529 for weeks, maybe months if major roads are taken 00:10:12.529 --> 00:10:15.470 out. It's a huge deadly threat. OK, so massive 00:10:15.470 --> 00:10:18.169 freshwater flooding and landslides from the rain. 00:10:18.870 --> 00:10:21.549 Then there's the other water threat. The storm 00:10:21.549 --> 00:10:23.809 surge from the ocean, specifically targeting 00:10:23.809 --> 00:10:26.950 the South Coast. Yes, a life threatening storm 00:10:26.950 --> 00:10:29.370 surge hazard is expected along the south coast, 00:10:29.809 --> 00:10:32.330 likely peaking late Monday through Tuesday morning 00:10:32.330 --> 00:10:35.289 as the storm makes its closest approach. And 00:10:35.289 --> 00:10:37.590 the forecast heights for that surge? They are 00:10:37.590 --> 00:10:40.649 terrifying. Peak surge heights are projected 00:10:40.649 --> 00:10:43.789 to reach 9 to 13 feet above the normal high tide 00:10:43.789 --> 00:10:47.070 mark. 9 to 13 feet above normal high tide. Correct. 00:10:47.509 --> 00:10:50.149 Concentrated near and, importantly, to the east 00:10:50.149 --> 00:10:52.350 of wherever the center makes its closest approach 00:10:52.350 --> 00:10:55.409 or landfall. Remember, the strongest winds pushing 00:10:55.409 --> 00:10:57.769 the water are typically on the right side, the 00:10:57.769 --> 00:11:00.549 east side, of a northbound storm in the northern 00:11:00.549 --> 00:11:03.200 hemisphere. So if you factor in the normal high 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:05.480 tide itself, what kind of water levels are coastal 00:11:05.480 --> 00:11:07.279 structures actually facing? You could easily 00:11:07.279 --> 00:11:10.100 be looking at 15, maybe even close to 20 feet 00:11:10.100 --> 00:11:13.179 of rushing destructive saltwater inundating the 00:11:13.179 --> 00:11:15.299 immediate coastline in the worst hit areas. It's 00:11:15.299 --> 00:11:17.620 not just standing water. It's driven by hurricane 00:11:17.620 --> 00:11:20.100 force winds. We really need to highlight the 00:11:20.100 --> 00:11:22.480 specific vulnerability of Kingston, the capital, 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:26.240 in this surge scenario. Its geography seems almost 00:11:26.240 --> 00:11:28.779 perfectly designed to maximize the damage from 00:11:28.779 --> 00:11:31.960 a storm coming from the south. tragically positioned 00:11:31.960 --> 00:11:35.080 for this specific track. Kingston Harbour opens 00:11:35.080 --> 00:11:37.659 directly to the south. Right into the oncoming 00:11:37.659 --> 00:11:40.659 surge. Exactly. It's the precise direction the 00:11:40.659 --> 00:11:42.820 peak surge will be coming from as Melissa moves 00:11:42.820 --> 00:11:45.500 north. Experts have noted that the geometry of 00:11:45.500 --> 00:11:47.940 the harbor, the way it narrows, acts like a giant 00:11:47.940 --> 00:11:50.639 catcher's mitt. It catches the incoming surge, 00:11:51.059 --> 00:11:53.500 funnels it, and potentially enhances its height 00:11:53.500 --> 00:11:56.139 as it pushes into the densely populated coastal 00:11:56.139 --> 00:11:58.620 areas around the harbor. And the absolute worst 00:11:58.620 --> 00:12:01.440 -case scenario for Kingston's surge. Is if Melissa 00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:04.480 makes landfall, or its closest approach, just 00:12:04.480 --> 00:12:07.100 slightly west of Kingston, that would put the 00:12:07.100 --> 00:12:09.980 capital in that right quadrant aligning the peak 00:12:09.980 --> 00:12:12.480 surge perfectly with the harbor southward facing 00:12:12.480 --> 00:12:14.919 entrance. That would be devastating. This puts 00:12:14.919 --> 00:12:17.899 the Kingston International Airport in immediate 00:12:17.899 --> 00:12:21.100 perhaps existential danger doesn't it? Absolutely. 00:12:21.480 --> 00:12:24.340 The airport Norman Manley International is located 00:12:24.340 --> 00:12:27.320 on a very narrow peninsula, technically a tombolo, 00:12:27.379 --> 00:12:30.320 called the Palisados, that juts out, basically 00:12:30.320 --> 00:12:32.500 enclosing the harbor. Very low lying, right? 00:12:32.740 --> 00:12:37.039 Extremely low lying. If that 13 -foot surge materializes, 00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:39.899 coinciding with the peak winds battering that 00:12:39.899 --> 00:12:42.480 narrow strip of land, the forecast indicates 00:12:42.480 --> 00:12:45.299 the entire airport facility would be completely 00:12:45.299 --> 00:12:48.340 inundated, possibly destroyed. and losing that 00:12:48.340 --> 00:12:51.139 airport. Losing that major logistical hub would 00:12:51.139 --> 00:12:53.600 critically complicate any post -storm recovery 00:12:53.600 --> 00:12:56.320 efforts for the entire country. Getting aid in, 00:12:56.440 --> 00:12:59.059 getting people out, it becomes vastly harder. 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:01.840 Okay, looking beyond Jamaica now, Melissa's sheer 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:04.019 size means this catastrophe isn't confined to 00:13:04.019 --> 00:13:06.279 one island. We have to talk about the expected 00:13:06.279 --> 00:13:09.059 impacts on Hispaniola, particularly Haney and 00:13:09.059 --> 00:13:11.679 also Cuba. Definitely. The situation shaping 00:13:11.679 --> 00:13:14.120 up in Haiti, especially on the southwestern Tiberon 00:13:14.120 --> 00:13:16.240 Peninsula, looks equally catastrophic, maybe 00:13:16.240 --> 00:13:18.460 even more so given the existing vulnerabilities. 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:20.840 That area has already been hit by storms recently, 00:13:21.000 --> 00:13:23.220 hasn't it, leaving the ground unstable? Yes, 00:13:23.379 --> 00:13:26.200 the soil is already saturated and unstable from 00:13:26.200 --> 00:13:29.419 previous heavy rains and storm activity. Now, 00:13:29.559 --> 00:13:32.100 Melissa is forecast to bring catastrophic flash 00:13:32.100 --> 00:13:34.200 flooding and landslides right through the middle 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:36.299 of the week. And the rainfall totals for Haiti? 00:13:36.700 --> 00:13:38.600 Potentially even higher in spots than Jamaica. 00:13:39.289 --> 00:13:42.330 Forecasts call for total rainfall, possibly reaching 00:13:42.330 --> 00:13:45.029 three feet of water in the mountains there. Three 00:13:45.029 --> 00:13:47.529 feet. Three feet of rain on those deforested, 00:13:47.549 --> 00:13:50.990 unstable hillsides. It's unimaginable. And unlike 00:13:50.990 --> 00:13:53.669 Jamaica, Haiti's infrastructure is far more fragile. 00:13:54.029 --> 00:13:56.690 Housing is often less resilient. The potential 00:13:56.690 --> 00:13:59.250 for loss of life there is extremely high with 00:13:59.250 --> 00:14:01.370 this kind of sustained assault. And tragically 00:14:01.370 --> 00:14:03.669 that earlier storm activity you mentioned has 00:14:03.669 --> 00:14:06.250 already claimed lives in Haiti. Yeah. Even before 00:14:06.250 --> 00:14:08.830 Melissa's corps arrives. That's a crucial heartbreaking 00:14:08.830 --> 00:14:12.090 point. We already have confirmed deaths reported 00:14:12.090 --> 00:14:14.570 from earlier storm impacts a landslide in the 00:14:14.570 --> 00:14:16.750 Fontemara area near Port -au -Prince, a falling 00:14:16.750 --> 00:14:19.850 tree in Marigot. Melissa's arrival will just 00:14:19.850 --> 00:14:22.490 compound this ongoing tragedy. Isolated communities 00:14:22.490 --> 00:14:24.870 further. potentially isolating entire villages 00:14:24.870 --> 00:14:27.570 for weeks, especially where critical roads, which 00:14:27.570 --> 00:14:30.250 are often just dirt tracks, are inevitably going 00:14:30.250 --> 00:14:33.769 to be washed out or buried by landslides. Further 00:14:33.769 --> 00:14:36.509 west, Cuba is also bracing for a significant 00:14:36.509 --> 00:14:39.330 impact. There's a hurricane watch up for the 00:14:39.330 --> 00:14:41.950 eastern provinces. That's right. Grandma Santiago 00:14:41.950 --> 00:14:45.090 de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holgun provinces are all 00:14:45.090 --> 00:14:47.850 under a hurricane watch. And what's the forecast 00:14:47.850 --> 00:14:50.919 for Cuba? Still a major hurricane. The forecast 00:14:50.919 --> 00:14:53.600 suggests it will still likely be a major hurricane 00:14:53.600 --> 00:14:56.460 impact as it moves near or over eastern Cuba. 00:14:56.779 --> 00:14:59.299 Rainfall is expected to be in the 10 to 15 inch 00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:02.320 range generally, but local totals could hit 20 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:04.379 inches, especially in the mountainous Sierra 00:15:04.379 --> 00:15:07.299 Meister region. And again, mountains plus torrential 00:15:07.299 --> 00:15:09.779 rain equals. Life threatening flash flooding 00:15:09.779 --> 00:15:12.080 and landslides. It's the same deadly equation. 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:14.600 It will particularly impact rural communities, 00:15:15.000 --> 00:15:16.899 agriculture in that part of Cuba. And looking 00:15:16.899 --> 00:15:19.259 further out is Melissa continues moving generally 00:15:19.259 --> 00:15:21.779 north west after impacting the greater Antilles. 00:15:22.059 --> 00:15:24.419 The risk profile then increases significantly 00:15:24.419 --> 00:15:26.350 for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks. in 00:15:26.350 --> 00:15:28.769 Caicos Islands by the middle of the week. They 00:15:28.769 --> 00:15:30.870 need to be watching this very closely. And even 00:15:30.870 --> 00:15:33.710 further down the line. Bermuda will need to monitor 00:15:33.710 --> 00:15:36.169 the system later in the week as it potentially 00:15:36.169 --> 00:15:38.889 curves out into the Atlantic. So the core takeaway 00:15:38.889 --> 00:15:42.309 from all these impacts, it's the sheer slow motion 00:15:42.309 --> 00:15:46.250 combined with this intense rainfall over mountainous 00:15:46.250 --> 00:15:49.690 islands. It's just a perfect recipe for a multinational 00:15:49.690 --> 00:15:52.279 disaster. It really is. It echoes some of the 00:15:52.279 --> 00:15:54.559 worst historical storms in the Caribbean, like 00:15:54.559 --> 00:15:57.919 maybe Hurricane Flora back in 1963, which also 00:15:57.919 --> 00:16:00.139 stalled and caused horrific flooding and loss 00:16:00.139 --> 00:16:03.240 of life across Hispaniola and Cuba due to its 00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:05.519 slow movement. This is that kind of setup. OK, 00:16:05.559 --> 00:16:07.899 we've established the truly devastating potential 00:16:07.899 --> 00:16:10.500 impacts on people, on infrastructure, on the 00:16:10.500 --> 00:16:13.519 geography. But all that destruction is ultimately 00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:16.639 the result of this incredibly efficient, almost 00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:19.870 perfect natural engine. Let's shift focus now 00:16:19.870 --> 00:16:23.230 to the science, the thermodynamics, the physics 00:16:23.230 --> 00:16:25.610 that are driving this monster towards category 00:16:25.610 --> 00:16:27.590 five strength. Absolutely. Let's look under the 00:16:27.590 --> 00:16:30.809 hood. Okay, first off, Melissa didn't just gradually 00:16:30.809 --> 00:16:32.710 strengthen. It went through what's called rapid 00:16:32.710 --> 00:16:35.309 intensification, or RI, extreme RI, actually. 00:16:35.330 --> 00:16:37.889 It really did. It went from basically a low -end 00:16:37.889 --> 00:16:40.750 tropical storm to a high -end category four hurricane 00:16:40.750 --> 00:16:43.549 in just 24 hours. What's the official definition 00:16:43.549 --> 00:16:46.460 for RI? The official threshold used by the National 00:16:46.460 --> 00:16:49.500 Hurricane Center is a 35 mile per hour increase 00:16:49.500 --> 00:16:52.779 in the maximum sustained wind speed over a 24 00:16:52.779 --> 00:16:55.639 hour period. And also. Melissa essentially doubled 00:16:55.639 --> 00:16:58.460 that rate. It jumped from roughly 70 mile per 00:16:58.460 --> 00:17:01.299 hour winds to 140 mile per hour in that same 00:17:01.299 --> 00:17:03.720 24 hour window. That's explosive strengthening. 00:17:04.099 --> 00:17:05.940 What allows that kind of explosion to happen? 00:17:06.019 --> 00:17:08.279 What are the ingredients? For that level of RI, 00:17:08.420 --> 00:17:11.440 you generally need a perfect storm, meteorologically 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:14.250 speaking, of ingredients. Three key things. One, 00:17:14.849 --> 00:17:18.069 very deep, very warm ocean water, the fuel. Two, 00:17:18.230 --> 00:17:20.450 very low vertical wind shear, meaning the winds 00:17:20.450 --> 00:17:22.470 aren't tearing the storm apart at different altitudes. 00:17:22.910 --> 00:17:25.390 And three, high moisture content through a deep 00:17:25.390 --> 00:17:28.230 layer of the atmosphere. Melissa found all three. 00:17:28.529 --> 00:17:30.309 Let's focus on that first ingredient, the fuel 00:17:30.309 --> 00:17:32.250 source, the warm water. That seems particularly 00:17:32.250 --> 00:17:35.849 critical here. It absolutely is. The storm is 00:17:35.849 --> 00:17:39.269 currently sitting over, churning up near record 00:17:39.269 --> 00:17:42.690 warm Caribbean water. Sea surface temperatures 00:17:42.690 --> 00:17:45.349 have been measured at a scorching 86 degrees 00:17:45.349 --> 00:17:47.529 Fahrenheit. That's bath water temperature. 86 00:17:47.529 --> 00:17:50.190 degrees. But it's not just the surface temp, 00:17:50.289 --> 00:17:52.670 is it? It's the depth of that warmth. That is 00:17:52.670 --> 00:17:55.329 the crucial element here. The research flights 00:17:55.329 --> 00:17:58.269 and ocean buoy data show that this 86 degree 00:17:58.269 --> 00:18:00.869 water isn't just a thin layer on the surface. 00:18:01.390 --> 00:18:04.390 It extends down incredibly, about 200 feet deep. 00:18:04.730 --> 00:18:08.390 200 feet of 86 degree water. Why is that depth 00:18:08.390 --> 00:18:11.130 so critical for allowing a storm to get this 00:18:11.130 --> 00:18:13.490 strong and stay this strong? OK, think about 00:18:13.490 --> 00:18:16.109 what a strong hurricane does. Its powerful winds 00:18:16.109 --> 00:18:19.410 churn the ocean surface violently. Normally this 00:18:19.410 --> 00:18:22.109 process, which we call upwelling, mixes the water 00:18:22.109 --> 00:18:24.269 and brings cooler water up from deeper down. 00:18:24.490 --> 00:18:26.190 And that cooler water acts like a break, right? 00:18:26.190 --> 00:18:28.569 It cuts off the fuel supply. Exactly. It typically 00:18:28.569 --> 00:18:30.750 limits how strong a storm can get or causes it 00:18:30.750 --> 00:18:33.029 to weaken. But because Melissa is churning over 00:18:33.029 --> 00:18:35.730 200 feet of uniformly warm water, there's no 00:18:35.730 --> 00:18:38.660 cool water to bring. Precisely. The storm is 00:18:38.660 --> 00:18:40.859 completely protected from its own self -induced 00:18:40.859 --> 00:18:44.980 upwelling. It has this immense, practically inexhaustible 00:18:44.980 --> 00:18:48.119 reservoir of high -octane fuel beneath it that 00:18:48.119 --> 00:18:51.559 allows it to reach and potentially sustain peak 00:18:51.559 --> 00:18:55.059 intensity for a much longer period than it otherwise 00:18:55.059 --> 00:18:57.319 could. Okay, so the water is the fuel. Let's 00:18:57.319 --> 00:18:59.279 talk about the engine itself, this whole concept 00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:03.640 of hurricanes being warm core systems. How does 00:19:03.640 --> 00:19:05.880 releasing heat in the middle actually to actually 00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:08.140 power the storm to these extreme wind speeds. 00:19:08.400 --> 00:19:10.799 Right, so think of the hurricane as this massive 00:19:10.799 --> 00:19:13.460 kind of inverted thermal engine. It's operating 00:19:13.460 --> 00:19:16.359 between the warm, moist ocean surface and the 00:19:16.359 --> 00:19:19.079 very cold upper atmosphere, maybe 40 ,000, 50 00:19:19.079 --> 00:19:22.059 ,000 feet up. Air spirals into the storm at the 00:19:22.059 --> 00:19:24.279 surface, picks up heat and moisture, then rises 00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:26.740 rapidly in these incredibly intense thunderstorms 00:19:26.740 --> 00:19:28.799 that form the eyewall. And as that air rises? 00:19:28.940 --> 00:19:31.599 As that warm, moist air rises and cools, the 00:19:31.599 --> 00:19:33.680 vast amount of water vapor within it condenses 00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:36.150 into cloud droplets and rain. This condensation 00:19:36.150 --> 00:19:38.210 process releases an enormous amount of energy, 00:19:38.349 --> 00:19:40.470 which we call latent heat, into the air surrounding 00:19:40.470 --> 00:19:44.009 it. Latent heat release. Yes. And this happens 00:19:44.009 --> 00:19:46.950 on a massive scale in the eye wall, creating 00:19:46.950 --> 00:19:50.029 this powerful, buoyant column of exceptionally 00:19:50.029 --> 00:19:52.950 warm air right in the center, in the core of 00:19:52.950 --> 00:19:55.190 the storm. And this heat must be pretty extreme 00:19:55.190 --> 00:19:58.289 in a storm like Bellissa. It is. The data gathered 00:19:58.289 --> 00:20:00.490 by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew into 00:20:00.490 --> 00:20:03.950 Melissa showed that the air inside the eye at 00:20:03.950 --> 00:20:06.750 altitude was measured to be about 16 degrees 00:20:06.750 --> 00:20:08.890 Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding air outside 00:20:08.890 --> 00:20:11.170 the eye wall at the same level. 16 degrees warmer 00:20:11.170 --> 00:20:13.430 in the eye. That massive temperature difference, 00:20:13.609 --> 00:20:16.589 that column of exceptional warmth is a profound 00:20:16.589 --> 00:20:19.250 indicator of a deeply intense, highly efficient, 00:20:19.549 --> 00:20:22.829 well organized hurricane. It's the signature 00:20:22.829 --> 00:20:25.730 of a storm that has basically maxed out its thermodynamics. 00:20:25.740 --> 00:20:28.180 potential. And it's this intense heating mechanism 00:20:28.180 --> 00:20:30.539 in the core that ultimately drives the extreme 00:20:30.539 --> 00:20:33.220 wind speeds we see at the surface. It creates 00:20:33.220 --> 00:20:35.740 like a vacuum. That's precisely right. Those 00:20:35.740 --> 00:20:38.140 powerful updrafts in the eyewall fueled by the 00:20:38.140 --> 00:20:40.720 latent heat release lift air away from the surface 00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:43.700 incredibly rapidly. They literally remove air 00:20:43.700 --> 00:20:45.680 mass from the center faster than air can rush 00:20:45.680 --> 00:20:47.799 in at the bottom to replace it. Creating a void. 00:20:48.140 --> 00:20:51.619 Creating a void? or more accurately, a massive 00:20:51.619 --> 00:20:54.180 deficit in atmospheric pressure in the storm 00:20:54.180 --> 00:20:57.220 center at the surface. Air from the higher pressure 00:20:57.220 --> 00:20:59.880 areas outside the storm then rushes violently 00:20:59.880 --> 00:21:02.500 inward trying to fill that low pressure void. 00:21:02.859 --> 00:21:05.619 And that inward rush of air is the wind. That 00:21:05.619 --> 00:21:08.140 is the hurricane force wind we measure. The stronger 00:21:08.140 --> 00:21:10.880 the heating, the more air is lifted out, the 00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:13.440 lower the central pressure drops, the steeper 00:21:13.440 --> 00:21:15.019 the pressure gradient between the center and 00:21:15.019 --> 00:21:17.319 the outside becomes, and the faster the wind 00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:19.599 blows trying to equalize it. And the research 00:21:19.599 --> 00:21:23.059 provided a really stunning number for just how 00:21:23.059 --> 00:21:25.299 much air is missing from Melissa's center. Yeah, 00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:27.420 the current analysis based on the pressure readings 00:21:27.420 --> 00:21:30.380 suggests that approximately 6 % to 7 % of the 00:21:30.380 --> 00:21:33.000 atmosphere's normal ambient mass is currently 00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:34.940 missing from the column of air in Melissa's center. 00:21:35.279 --> 00:21:38.200 6 % to 7 % of the air is just gone. Essentially 00:21:38.200 --> 00:21:40.779 removed by the storm's dynamics. It's a staggering 00:21:40.779 --> 00:21:43.660 amount. And the physics here are really nonlinear. 00:21:44.039 --> 00:21:47.259 as the pressure measured in millibars drops lower 00:21:47.259 --> 00:21:50.079 and lower. The winds ramp up faster and faster. 00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:53.019 The pressure gradient force that forced driving 00:21:53.019 --> 00:21:56.720 the air inwards intensifies exponentially. So 00:21:56.720 --> 00:21:59.180 even a small further drop in the central pressure 00:21:59.180 --> 00:22:02.180 now could translate into a massive jump in wind 00:22:02.180 --> 00:22:04.680 speed. That's why we're seeing these Cat 5 predictions 00:22:04.680 --> 00:22:07.160 becoming so likely. And where is the intensity 00:22:07.160 --> 00:22:09.059 headed now? You mentioned it's nonlinear. It 00:22:09.059 --> 00:22:11.559 doesn't just climb smoothly. Correct. Hurricane 00:22:11.559 --> 00:22:14.240 intensification isn't usually a smooth upward 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:17.400 curve. It often involves these internal dynamics, 00:22:17.599 --> 00:22:20.200 things like eyewall replacement cycles. where 00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:22.720 an outer eye wall forms and chokes off the inner 00:22:22.720 --> 00:22:25.640 one temporarily. That can cause the intensity 00:22:25.640 --> 00:22:29.380 to briefly plateau or even dip slightly before 00:22:29.380 --> 00:22:32.140 sometimes a sharp, abrupt re -intensification 00:22:32.140 --> 00:22:35.859 occurs as the new, often larger eye wall consolidates. 00:22:35.980 --> 00:22:38.000 So the forecast models have to grapple with that 00:22:38.000 --> 00:22:40.680 complexity. They do. It makes pinpointing the 00:22:40.680 --> 00:22:43.759 exact peak intensity tricky. However, the high 00:22:43.759 --> 00:22:45.559 -end guidance, especially looking at some of 00:22:45.559 --> 00:22:47.700 the advanced ensemble models, maybe even some 00:22:47.700 --> 00:22:50.240 AI -driven predictions, like from Google DeepMind 00:22:50.240 --> 00:22:51.700 research that's been emerging. Really showing. 00:22:52.019 --> 00:22:55.160 They're consistently showing an over 80 % probability 00:22:55.160 --> 00:22:57.220 now of Melissa reaching that critical Category 00:22:57.220 --> 00:23:00.119 5 threshold, 157 mile -hour -hour -hour higher, 00:23:00.480 --> 00:23:03.160 before it impacts Jamaica. Over 80 % chance of 00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:05.279 Cat 5. Which tells us that even if the storm 00:23:05.279 --> 00:23:08.079 fluctuates a bit, say between 150 mile -hour 00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:10.700 -hour -hour Cat 4 and 160 mile -hour -hour Cat 00:23:10.700 --> 00:23:13.779 5 right at the moment of peak impact. The results 00:23:13.779 --> 00:23:15.599 on the ground are going to be catastrophic, regardless. 00:23:15.759 --> 00:23:17.819 The impacts are effectively category five impacts, 00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:21.380 whether it's, say, 55 or all cat four or 160 00:23:21.380 --> 00:23:23.740 mile or cat five at landfall. Absolutely. For 00:23:23.740 --> 00:23:25.720 the people experiencing this, the difference 00:23:25.720 --> 00:23:28.200 between a really high end category four and a 00:23:28.200 --> 00:23:30.319 category five is frankly academic. It's splitting 00:23:30.319 --> 00:23:33.259 hairs. What matters is the prolonged duration 00:23:33.259 --> 00:23:35.559 of those extreme winds, the astronomical rainfall, 00:23:35.619 --> 00:23:38.539 the massive surge. The practical difference between 00:23:38.539 --> 00:23:41.380 140 mile power winds and 160 mile power winds 00:23:41.380 --> 00:23:44.109 is mostly measured in just how much more debris, 00:23:44.390 --> 00:23:46.549 like plywood, sheet metal, signs, becomes airborne 00:23:46.549 --> 00:23:49.009 and turns into potentially lethal projectiles. 00:23:49.369 --> 00:23:51.349 The level of devastation is already locked in 00:23:51.349 --> 00:23:53.170 as extreme. OK, this is where it gets, well, 00:23:53.430 --> 00:23:55.970 really visceral. For the people who are currently 00:23:55.970 --> 00:23:59.339 hunkered down in Jamaica waiting for this. they're 00:23:59.339 --> 00:24:01.619 about to experience, or maybe are already starting 00:24:01.619 --> 00:24:04.720 to experience, this terrifying sequential assault 00:24:04.720 --> 00:24:07.359 on their sleizes. Let's try to walk through that 00:24:07.359 --> 00:24:10.140 sensory journey. What is it actually like to 00:24:10.140 --> 00:24:13.039 be inside the core of a storm this powerful? 00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:15.200 Yeah, let's try and paint that picture because 00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:17.940 preparation involves anticipating this sensory 00:24:17.940 --> 00:24:21.319 onslaught. Long before the hurricane winds actually 00:24:21.319 --> 00:24:24.539 arrive, maybe a day or two out, the first visual 00:24:24.539 --> 00:24:27.339 clue that something immense is out there is off 00:24:27.339 --> 00:24:29.819 in the sky itself. You mean those really vivid 00:24:29.819 --> 00:24:32.279 sunrises and sunsets? Exactly. You get these 00:24:32.279 --> 00:24:35.279 extra orange, deep pink, almost artificial -looking 00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:38.339 sunrises and sunsets that's caused by the hurricane's 00:24:38.339 --> 00:24:40.720 outflow, its upper -level exhaust system, basically 00:24:40.720 --> 00:24:43.019 spreading these thin, icy cirrus clouds very 00:24:43.019 --> 00:24:45.880 high up, maybe 35 ,000, 40 ,000 feet. And they 00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:48.259 catch the light. They catch the low -angle sunlight 00:24:48.259 --> 00:24:50.640 perfectly. at dawn and dusk. It's often eerily 00:24:50.640 --> 00:24:53.500 beautiful, but it's the calling card of a very 00:24:53.500 --> 00:24:56.460 large, very powerful system churning away offshore. 00:24:56.759 --> 00:24:59.019 Okay, then as the storm gets closer, maybe within 00:24:59.019 --> 00:25:02.059 12, 24 hours. You feel the air change first. 00:25:02.059 --> 00:25:05.940 It becomes oppressively muggy, humid. Then the 00:25:05.940 --> 00:25:08.880 outer rain bands start to arrive. These are often 00:25:08.880 --> 00:25:11.000 intermittent. At first you get a short, sharp 00:25:11.000 --> 00:25:13.720 downpour, maybe some gusty winds, then a brief 00:25:13.720 --> 00:25:16.140 lull, then another band comes through. And the 00:25:16.140 --> 00:25:18.519 wind starts picking up gradually. Right. It begins 00:25:18.519 --> 00:25:20.980 maybe with just a casual swaying of the palm 00:25:20.980 --> 00:25:24.140 trees, say 15, 20 mile an hour. The initial raindrops 00:25:24.140 --> 00:25:26.960 in these outer bands are often quite large, fat, 00:25:27.420 --> 00:25:30.079 distinct drops. But then the squalls become more 00:25:30.079 --> 00:25:32.299 constant. Yeah, as you get closer to the core, 00:25:32.359 --> 00:25:34.279 the squalls become more frequent, then eventually 00:25:34.279 --> 00:25:37.480 merge into just constant rain and wind. Once 00:25:37.480 --> 00:25:40.339 the wind hits sustained speeds of around 40 mile 00:25:40.339 --> 00:25:43.059 an hour official tropical storm conditions, the 00:25:43.059 --> 00:25:45.759 whole soundscape changes. How so? You start hearing 00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:48.240 that frantic, noisy rustling and whipping sound 00:25:48.240 --> 00:25:50.559 of palm fronds, you start hearing the first sounds 00:25:50.559 --> 00:25:53.400 of light debris, small branches, leaves, maybe 00:25:53.400 --> 00:25:55.220 loose items starting to blow around and hit things. 00:25:55.339 --> 00:25:57.359 And the rain changes too. Pay attention to the 00:25:57.359 --> 00:25:59.880 water, yeah. The research notes this distinct 00:25:59.880 --> 00:26:02.880 transition. As the winds intensify, the raindrops 00:26:02.880 --> 00:26:05.799 stop being big and fat. They become much smaller, 00:26:06.079 --> 00:26:08.339 littler, but far more numerous, almost like a 00:26:08.339 --> 00:26:11.019 spray. Driven by the wind. Driven hard by the 00:26:11.019 --> 00:26:14.099 intense wind field. At this point, maybe in the 00:26:14.099 --> 00:26:16.920 60 -70 mile per hour range, you're experiencing 00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:20.000 rainfall rates that can easily exceed three inches 00:26:20.000 --> 00:26:22.940 per hour. Puddles are no longer puddles. They 00:26:22.940 --> 00:26:25.240 rapidly merge into sheen flooding because the 00:26:25.240 --> 00:26:27.319 ground just can't absorb it anymore. Then you 00:26:27.319 --> 00:26:31.140 cross that threshold, 74 -75 mile per hour, into 00:26:31.140 --> 00:26:34.180 true hurricane force. What happens then? Okay, 00:26:34.240 --> 00:26:36.220 now you're in it. The power is likely out by 00:26:36.220 --> 00:26:39.319 now or will be soon. The rain is no longer really 00:26:39.319 --> 00:26:41.720 falling downwards. It's being driven almost perfectly 00:26:41.720 --> 00:26:44.240 horizontally. It becomes this constant spray 00:26:44.240 --> 00:26:46.599 of tiny droplets. People describe it like being 00:26:46.599 --> 00:26:49.000 blasted continuously by a fire hose, but one 00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:52.240 set to a fine, stinging mist. Horizontal, stinging 00:26:52.240 --> 00:26:54.440 mist. And because of that, freshwater intrusion 00:26:54.440 --> 00:26:56.960 becomes a major problem inside structures, even 00:26:56.960 --> 00:26:59.059 well -built ones. The wind pressure difference 00:26:59.059 --> 00:27:01.380 between outside and inside becomes so immense. 00:27:01.500 --> 00:27:04.279 It pushes water through tiny cracks. It physically 00:27:04.279 --> 00:27:07.549 blows water through any tiny crack crevice it 00:27:07.549 --> 00:27:10.289 can find. Under doors, around window frames, 00:27:10.450 --> 00:27:13.549 through vents, even through seemingly solid walls 00:27:13.549 --> 00:27:16.109 if there are any imperfections. People often 00:27:16.109 --> 00:27:18.049 find their homes are getting wet, even flooding 00:27:18.049 --> 00:27:20.490 slightly from the sides and top, not just from 00:27:20.490 --> 00:27:23.819 water rising from the ground. Yeah. What does 00:27:23.819 --> 00:27:25.779 Hurricane Force sound like? The sound becomes 00:27:25.779 --> 00:27:27.640 overwhelming. It's not just wind noise anymore. 00:27:27.740 --> 00:27:31.180 It's described as a constant, deep, chaotic roar. 00:27:31.740 --> 00:27:34.480 Roar. Yeah. Many people who've been through it 00:27:34.480 --> 00:27:36.640 compare it precisely to the sound of standing 00:27:36.640 --> 00:27:39.319 next to a massive, continuous waterfall or maybe 00:27:39.319 --> 00:27:41.440 a freight train that never passes. It's just 00:27:41.440 --> 00:27:43.720 this all -encompassing, deafening roar right 00:27:43.720 --> 00:27:46.180 outside your windows, sometimes for hours on 00:27:46.180 --> 00:27:48.799 end. What causes that specific roaring sound? 00:27:49.240 --> 00:27:51.640 It's believed to be caused by millions upon millions 00:27:51.640 --> 00:27:54.599 of miniature vortices, tiny, intense whirls of 00:27:54.599 --> 00:27:56.960 air constantly forming and shedding as the main 00:27:56.960 --> 00:27:59.920 wind flow curls around every single physical 00:27:59.920 --> 00:28:02.579 obstacle it encounters. Corners of buildings, 00:28:02.900 --> 00:28:06.180 trees, power poles, fences. Each tiny vortex 00:28:06.180 --> 00:28:08.440 contributes to this overall acoustic energy, 00:28:08.660 --> 00:28:11.400 this pressure trauma on your ears. And you start 00:28:11.400 --> 00:28:14.430 to hear the building itself reacting. Oh, yeah. 00:28:15.069 --> 00:28:17.309 Inside, especially in a wood frame house, but 00:28:17.309 --> 00:28:19.329 even in concrete structures, you will start to 00:28:19.329 --> 00:28:22.630 hear your house creaking, groaning, maybe popping 00:28:22.630 --> 00:28:26.009 sounds. That's the sound of the immense sustained 00:28:26.009 --> 00:28:27.690 stress the wind is putting on the structure, 00:28:27.849 --> 00:28:29.589 trying to lift the roof, trying to push in the 00:28:29.589 --> 00:28:32.410 walls, flexing the frame. It's unsettling. And 00:28:32.410 --> 00:28:35.490 speaking of unsettling internal effects. Let's 00:28:35.490 --> 00:28:37.769 go back to that incredible detail from the research, 00:28:38.269 --> 00:28:42.230 the toilet bowl phenomena. That image is so bizarrely 00:28:42.230 --> 00:28:45.309 specific. Seeing the water in your toilet bowl 00:28:45.309 --> 00:28:47.490 sloshing violently back and forth like you're 00:28:47.490 --> 00:28:50.309 on a ship in rough seas. Isn't that amazing? 00:28:50.549 --> 00:28:54.549 It is a truly stunning real world physical manifestation 00:28:54.549 --> 00:28:57.730 of the storm's invisible power acting directly 00:28:57.730 --> 00:29:00.450 on your house's systems. How does that work scientifically? 00:29:00.569 --> 00:29:02.269 Okay, to understand it, you have to remember 00:29:02.269 --> 00:29:04.509 your house's plumbing system, the drains from 00:29:04.490 --> 00:29:07.009 sinks, showers, toilets, they're all connected 00:29:07.009 --> 00:29:10.029 to a septic tank or the main sewer line, but 00:29:10.029 --> 00:29:12.609 critically that system also has a vent pipe. 00:29:12.829 --> 00:29:14.289 Right, usually sticking up through the roof. 00:29:14.609 --> 00:29:17.230 Usually a pipe sticking out of the roof. That 00:29:17.230 --> 00:29:20.150 vent pipe's job is to allow air pressure inside 00:29:20.150 --> 00:29:23.089 your plumbing system to equalize with the outside 00:29:23.089 --> 00:29:25.569 atmospheric pressure, preventing suction issues. 00:29:25.750 --> 00:29:29.170 OK. Now imagine hurricane force winds maybe gusting 00:29:29.170 --> 00:29:32.089 over 100, 120 mile per hour, screaming across 00:29:32.089 --> 00:29:34.329 the top of that open vent pipe on your roof. 00:29:34.950 --> 00:29:38.710 Those gusts cause rapid, extreme fluctuations 00:29:38.710 --> 00:29:41.089 in the air pressure right at the mouth of that 00:29:41.089 --> 00:29:43.430 pipe. So the pressure outside the pipe is going 00:29:43.430 --> 00:29:46.490 crazy. Exactly. And that rapid pressure difference 00:29:46.490 --> 00:29:49.230 compared to the relatively stable air pressure 00:29:49.230 --> 00:29:51.670 trapped inside your sealed plumbing pipes below, 00:29:52.170 --> 00:29:54.430 that differential is strong enough to physically 00:29:54.430 --> 00:29:57.490 push and pull on the column of air inside the 00:29:57.490 --> 00:29:59.849 pipes. And that moves the water. That push -pull 00:29:59.849 --> 00:30:02.269 literally forces the fluids within the pipes, 00:30:02.470 --> 00:30:04.470 including the water sitting peacefully in your 00:30:04.470 --> 00:30:07.250 toilet bowl trap, to shift violently back and 00:30:07.250 --> 00:30:09.470 forth until the pressures momentarily stabilize 00:30:09.470 --> 00:30:11.990 again between gusts. It's a direct visualization 00:30:11.990 --> 00:30:14.089 of the atmospheric pressure deficit we talked 00:30:14.089 --> 00:30:17.500 about earlier. bathroom. That is a terrifyingly 00:30:17.500 --> 00:30:19.519 brilliant illustration of the forces at play. 00:30:20.400 --> 00:30:22.799 Okay, so the wind is roaring, the house is groaning, 00:30:23.079 --> 00:30:26.480 the toilet is sloshing. As the pressure continues 00:30:26.480 --> 00:30:29.460 to drop, we approach the most dangerous part, 00:30:30.099 --> 00:30:33.160 the inner eye wall. But there might be a strange 00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:36.759 lull just before it hits. Yes, sometimes right 00:30:36.759 --> 00:30:39.319 on the immediate outskirts of the most intense 00:30:39.319 --> 00:30:42.099 eye wall core, there can be a narrow band of 00:30:42.099 --> 00:30:44.539 briefly sinking air. Meteorologists sometimes 00:30:44.539 --> 00:30:47.140 call this the moat region. And the sinking air 00:30:47.140 --> 00:30:49.759 causes the wind to decrease. For a short period, 00:30:49.880 --> 00:30:52.519 yes. The wind speed might decrease quite noticeably, 00:30:52.700 --> 00:30:54.960 maybe drop back down to strong tropical storm 00:30:54.960 --> 00:30:57.680 force for a few minutes. The rain might lessen. 00:30:57.940 --> 00:31:00.619 It can feel like a deceptive reprieve. Deceptive 00:31:00.619 --> 00:31:03.140 is the key word. Absolutely. The research, the 00:31:03.140 --> 00:31:05.259 warnings, they all emphasize this is not a chance 00:31:05.259 --> 00:31:07.400 to relax or go outside and look around. This 00:31:07.400 --> 00:31:10.039 is the absolute final moment you have to get 00:31:10.039 --> 00:31:12.339 into the safest possible place in your shelter. 00:31:12.740 --> 00:31:15.420 The most interior room, away from windows, on 00:31:15.420 --> 00:31:17.819 the lowest floor, not subject to flooding, before 00:31:17.819 --> 00:31:20.119 the absolute peak fury of the storm hits. And 00:31:20.119 --> 00:31:23.000 when that eye wall hits, it's sudden. It's total. 00:31:23.200 --> 00:31:25.220 It's often described as hitting like a wall. 00:31:25.880 --> 00:31:28.609 Instantaneous. Total fury. You go from maybe 00:31:28.609 --> 00:31:32.009 60 mile per hour winds in the moat to gusts well 00:31:32.009 --> 00:31:35.569 over 110, 130, maybe 150 mile per hour or more 00:31:35.569 --> 00:31:38.170 within minutes. Wow. It's a complete whiteout 00:31:38.170 --> 00:31:40.990 event. Visibility drops to practically zero, 00:31:41.170 --> 00:31:43.210 maybe less than 30 feet, sometimes just a few 00:31:43.210 --> 00:31:46.650 feet. The rain becomes an opaque horizontal sheet 00:31:46.650 --> 00:31:49.609 driven with such force it feels solid. And this 00:31:49.609 --> 00:31:51.470 is where the major structural damage happens. 00:31:51.549 --> 00:31:54.009 This is it. This is where you hear shingles and 00:31:54.009 --> 00:31:56.529 siding peeling off like paper. This is where 00:31:56.529 --> 00:31:59.480 wind even boarded ones might fail under the pressure 00:31:59.480 --> 00:32:01.759 and impacts. This is where roofs can begin to 00:32:01.759 --> 00:32:04.299 lift off. This is the stage where the wind easily 00:32:04.299 --> 00:32:07.000 turns unsecured objects, even fairly large ones, 00:32:07.400 --> 00:32:09.940 into deadly projectiles. There's another sense 00:32:09.940 --> 00:32:11.680 involved here too, right? The sense of smell. 00:32:11.980 --> 00:32:13.900 Yes, interestingly, researchers and survivors 00:32:13.900 --> 00:32:16.519 often note a distinct, unique scent during the 00:32:16.519 --> 00:32:18.980 peak of the eyewall passage. It's often described 00:32:18.980 --> 00:32:22.019 as the smell of freshly cut grass, or maybe like 00:32:22.019 --> 00:32:24.319 being inside a giant greenhouse. A greenhouse 00:32:24.319 --> 00:32:26.660 smell. What cause is that? It's believed to be 00:32:26.660 --> 00:32:29.880 the smell of freshly defoliated vegetation. The 00:32:29.880 --> 00:32:32.079 incredible violence of the wind is literally 00:32:32.079 --> 00:32:35.220 shredding every leaf, every needle, every bit 00:32:35.220 --> 00:32:37.640 of green off the trees and plants in its path. 00:32:38.220 --> 00:32:41.019 This massive shredding releases volatile organic 00:32:41.019 --> 00:32:43.299 compounds from the damaged plant matter into 00:32:43.299 --> 00:32:46.539 the air, creating that strange, slightly sweet 00:32:46.539 --> 00:32:50.920 green scent amidst the chaos. Wow. And sometimes, 00:32:51.079 --> 00:32:52.859 rarely, you might even get lightning in the eye 00:32:52.859 --> 00:32:55.339 wall. It's exceedingly rare in a mature, well 00:32:55.339 --> 00:32:57.579 -developed hurricane eyewall because the air 00:32:57.579 --> 00:32:59.980 motion is predominantly horizontal, which isn't 00:32:59.980 --> 00:33:02.200 great for the charge separation needed for lightning. 00:33:02.380 --> 00:33:04.500 But if it happens? If you do see flashes of lightning 00:33:04.500 --> 00:33:06.839 or hear an occasional crash of thunder embedded 00:33:06.839 --> 00:33:09.279 within the eyewall's roar, that is considered 00:33:09.279 --> 00:33:12.319 a profound signal. It usually indicates that 00:33:12.319 --> 00:33:14.460 the updrafts within that section of the eyewall 00:33:14.460 --> 00:33:17.099 have become so violently powerful, so turbulent, 00:33:17.460 --> 00:33:19.440 that they are managing to generate significant 00:33:19.440 --> 00:33:22.480 charge separation. It often points to an exceptionally 00:33:22.539 --> 00:33:25.420 intense storm core or possibly one that is still 00:33:25.420 --> 00:33:27.960 rapidly strengthening. But honestly, you'd be 00:33:27.960 --> 00:33:30.240 lucky to even hear thunder over the sheer scream 00:33:30.240 --> 00:33:32.640 of the wind at that point. Okay, so the eyewall 00:33:32.640 --> 00:33:35.460 rages. As the storm continues its slow crawl, 00:33:35.819 --> 00:33:38.200 the winds might become even more erratic on the 00:33:38.200 --> 00:33:41.299 inner edge due to smaller vortices. Yes. Embedded 00:33:41.299 --> 00:33:43.839 within the main eyewall circulation, you can 00:33:43.839 --> 00:33:46.619 get these smaller, very intense whirlwinds called 00:33:46.619 --> 00:33:49.039 mesovortices. They might only be a few miles 00:33:49.039 --> 00:33:51.579 across, but they contain extreme winds and rotate 00:33:51.579 --> 00:33:54.460 around within the main eye. As these sweep past, 00:33:54.480 --> 00:33:57.099 they can cause sudden, violent, and direction 00:33:57.099 --> 00:33:59.799 -changing gusts that are even stronger than the 00:33:59.799 --> 00:34:02.710 background wind field. And then after potentially 00:34:02.710 --> 00:34:06.769 hours of this eye -walled fury, suddenly... It 00:34:06.769 --> 00:34:09.630 stops. Abruptly. If you are directly in the path 00:34:09.630 --> 00:34:11.949 of the eye itself, the wind can drop from over 00:34:11.949 --> 00:34:14.969 100 mph to almost calm, maybe just 10 -20 mph, 00:34:15.210 --> 00:34:18.210 in a matter of minutes. The deafening roar ceases, 00:34:18.449 --> 00:34:21.210 replaced by an eerie, almost unnatural quiet. 00:34:21.309 --> 00:34:22.889 You've reached the eye. You're in the eye of 00:34:22.889 --> 00:34:24.510 the hurricane. It's often described as a very 00:34:24.510 --> 00:34:27.070 odd place. The physics flips. Instead of violently 00:34:27.070 --> 00:34:29.349 rising air, the air in the center is gently sinking. 00:34:29.730 --> 00:34:32.769 As it sinks, it compresses and warms. So the 00:34:32.769 --> 00:34:36.920 sky clears. Often, yes. The skies brighten significantly. 00:34:37.420 --> 00:34:39.880 You might see patches of blue sky, maybe even 00:34:39.880 --> 00:34:42.099 glimpse the sun directly overhead if it's daytime, 00:34:42.539 --> 00:34:44.519 even while the ground level might remain misty 00:34:44.519 --> 00:34:46.940 or hazy with spray. And the soundscape changes 00:34:46.940 --> 00:34:49.739 completely again. Totally. That massive roar 00:34:49.739 --> 00:34:53.320 is gone. Instead, you hear this incredibly ill 00:34:53.320 --> 00:34:56.320 -timed, unsettling chorus emerge from the wreckage. 00:34:56.440 --> 00:35:00.940 What kind of chorus? Tree frogs. Crickets. Insects. 00:35:01.239 --> 00:35:03.460 They all suddenly start chirping and singing 00:35:03.460 --> 00:35:06.139 loudly, utterly disoriented, probably thinking 00:35:06.139 --> 00:35:08.139 the storm has passed because the wind and rain 00:35:08.139 --> 00:35:11.219 stopped. It's bizarrely noisy in a completely 00:35:11.219 --> 00:35:13.139 different way. And you might see birds. Yes, 00:35:13.139 --> 00:35:16.039 look up. You may well see exhausted, completely 00:35:16.039 --> 00:35:18.579 disoriented birds flying around inside the eye. 00:35:18.840 --> 00:35:20.800 They get swept into the storm, can't fight the 00:35:20.800 --> 00:35:23.019 winds to get out, and essentially become trapped, 00:35:23.280 --> 00:35:26.199 forced to fly along within the calm center. They 00:35:26.199 --> 00:35:28.559 often fly until they reach land or just collapse 00:35:28.559 --> 00:35:30.860 from exhaustion. And the most dramatic sight, 00:35:31.219 --> 00:35:33.239 if you're lucky or unlucky enough to see it, 00:35:33.619 --> 00:35:37.860 the stadium effect. Ah, the stadium effect. That 00:35:37.860 --> 00:35:41.480 is the truly profound, perhaps once -in -a -lifetime 00:35:41.480 --> 00:35:43.960 moment you might experience in a strong hurricane's 00:35:43.960 --> 00:35:46.780 eye. If the clearing is wide enough and the eyewall 00:35:46.780 --> 00:35:48.840 structure is sharp enough, you can see the wall 00:35:48.840 --> 00:35:50.900 of clouds surrounding you. You can literally 00:35:50.900 --> 00:35:53.940 look up and see the towering, nearly vertical 00:35:53.940 --> 00:35:57.159 wall of the surrounding eyewall clouds completely 00:35:57.159 --> 00:35:59.800 encircling the calm area you're standing in. 00:35:59.940 --> 00:36:02.019 It looks like you are standing on the field at 00:36:02.019 --> 00:36:05.039 the bottom of a giant churning stadium made of 00:36:05.039 --> 00:36:09.210 cloud. is a moment of terrifying, awesome, terrible 00:36:09.210 --> 00:36:11.389 beauty. But a moment that comes with a critical 00:36:11.389 --> 00:36:13.610 warning. An absolutely critical warning. The 00:36:13.610 --> 00:36:15.650 research, the survivor accounts, they all say, 00:36:16.190 --> 00:36:18.250 the moment you might witness that stadium effect 00:36:18.250 --> 00:36:20.630 or any clearing in the eye is not the time for 00:36:20.630 --> 00:36:22.590 sightseeing. You need to assume the worst danger 00:36:22.590 --> 00:36:24.929 is still ahead and get immediately back into 00:36:24.929 --> 00:36:27.829 your safest shelter. Why is the eye itself still 00:36:27.829 --> 00:36:30.630 so dangerous if the wind is calm where you are? 00:36:30.869 --> 00:36:34.440 The danger is twofold, really. First, remember 00:36:34.440 --> 00:36:37.059 those mesovortices we mentioned? Those smaller 00:36:37.059 --> 00:36:39.179 whirlwinds? They don't just stay in the eye wall. 00:36:39.639 --> 00:36:42.460 They can and do pivot right through the eye itself 00:36:42.460 --> 00:36:44.480 without warning. Uh -huh. So you could get hit 00:36:44.480 --> 00:36:47.579 by a sudden 80 mile per hour gust out of nowhere. 00:36:48.019 --> 00:36:51.440 Easily. Gusts of 80 mile per hour or even higher, 00:36:51.619 --> 00:36:54.320 changing direction rapidly, can sweep across 00:36:54.320 --> 00:36:57.389 parts of the eye unexpectedly. If you're complacent 00:36:57.389 --> 00:36:59.570 and step outside to assess damage, you could 00:36:59.570 --> 00:37:01.750 be caught completely off guard and seriously 00:37:01.750 --> 00:37:04.849 injured, or worse, by flying debris kicked up 00:37:04.849 --> 00:37:06.989 by one of these vortices. OK, that's one danger. 00:37:07.210 --> 00:37:09.429 What's the second? The second and perhaps even 00:37:09.429 --> 00:37:12.190 more critical danger is the arrival of the back 00:37:12.190 --> 00:37:14.570 side of the eye wall. When the eye passes and 00:37:14.570 --> 00:37:16.849 the winds return, they will be blowing with just 00:37:16.849 --> 00:37:19.829 as much fury as the front side. but from the 00:37:19.829 --> 00:37:21.769 exact opposite direction. I mean, from the other 00:37:21.769 --> 00:37:24.550 way. Exactly. And any structure, any tree, any 00:37:24.550 --> 00:37:26.550 power line that was already damaged, weakened, 00:37:26.969 --> 00:37:28.929 perhaps leaning from the initial hours -long 00:37:28.929 --> 00:37:31.269 assault from one direction, is now going to be 00:37:31.269 --> 00:37:33.309 hit by that same incredible force but pushing 00:37:33.309 --> 00:37:35.110 it back the other way. And that often causes 00:37:35.110 --> 00:37:38.079 total failure. That reverse pressure and force 00:37:38.079 --> 00:37:41.380 is very often what causes structures that somehow 00:37:41.380 --> 00:37:43.900 survive the first half of the storm to fail completely 00:37:43.900 --> 00:37:47.000 during the second half. So the eye offers a brief 00:37:47.000 --> 00:37:50.179 deceptive pause, but the danger is far from over. 00:37:50.579 --> 00:37:52.460 In fact, some of the worst damage occurs when 00:37:52.460 --> 00:37:55.099 the back eye wall hits. You know, stepping back 00:37:55.099 --> 00:37:57.800 and looking at the whole picture. The magnitude 00:37:57.800 --> 00:38:00.900 of the challenge facing Jamaica and Haiti and 00:38:00.900 --> 00:38:03.059 Cuba right now is just immense. We've really 00:38:03.059 --> 00:38:06.400 analyzed a true worst case convergence of factors 00:38:06.400 --> 00:38:08.000 here. Yeah, it seems like everything lined up 00:38:08.000 --> 00:38:10.460 in the worst possible way. You have that incredibly 00:38:10.460 --> 00:38:12.780 slow forward speed. You have it sitting over 00:38:12.780 --> 00:38:15.300 that unprecedented depth of extremely warm water, 00:38:15.380 --> 00:38:17.420 providing almost limitless fuel. And then you 00:38:17.420 --> 00:38:19.760 have that fuel colliding directly with highly 00:38:19.760 --> 00:38:23.179 vulnerable, steep mountainous terrain. The terrain 00:38:23.179 --> 00:38:26.389 interaction is key. It's absolutely key. When 00:38:26.389 --> 00:38:28.889 a storm possessing Melissa's kind of thermodynamic 00:38:28.889 --> 00:38:31.070 efficiency, its ability to process moisture, 00:38:31.489 --> 00:38:34.949 slows down or stalls over steep geography, the 00:38:34.949 --> 00:38:37.050 result isn't just measured in miles per hour 00:38:37.050 --> 00:38:39.730 of wind, it's measured in feet of rain. And that 00:38:39.730 --> 00:38:42.829 translates directly, inevitably, into catastrophic 00:38:42.829 --> 00:38:46.110 life altering landslides and infrastructure failure. 00:38:46.650 --> 00:38:49.230 It truly is the perfect meteorological storm 00:38:49.230 --> 00:38:51.730 for disaster in that region. So let's recap the 00:38:51.730 --> 00:38:54.449 key points for everyone. We've covered the immediate 00:38:54.449 --> 00:38:57.210 historic threat. Hurricane Melissa, currently 00:38:57.210 --> 00:38:59.929 south of Kingston, intensifying towards a possible 00:38:59.929 --> 00:39:02.190 Category 5. That would make it the strongest 00:39:02.190 --> 00:39:05.309 storm ever projected to hit Jamaica. A dire forecast. 00:39:05.469 --> 00:39:07.329 It's bringing life -threatening storm surge, 00:39:07.550 --> 00:39:10.510 potentially 9 to 13 feet above high tide, especially 00:39:10.510 --> 00:39:13.210 dangerous for Kingston Harbour. We detailed the 00:39:13.210 --> 00:39:16.090 unique, almost scary physics driving this intensity, 00:39:16.389 --> 00:39:18.710 fueled by that 86 degree water extending 200 00:39:18.710 --> 00:39:21.110 feet deep, creating that powerful warm core chimney 00:39:21.110 --> 00:39:23.170 effect and the massive pressure drop. The engine 00:39:23.170 --> 00:39:26.309 is running at full throttle. walked through that 00:39:26.309 --> 00:39:29.690 terrifying multi -sensory experience of what 00:39:29.690 --> 00:39:32.590 it's actually like to be inside the eye wall 00:39:32.590 --> 00:39:35.789 from the house groaning, the waterfall roar, 00:39:35.789 --> 00:39:39.070 the strange smells, to that bizarre but telling 00:39:39.070 --> 00:39:41.349 toilet bowl phenomenon. A visceral experience, 00:39:41.449 --> 00:39:43.989 no doubt. It is absolutely vital for everyone 00:39:43.989 --> 00:39:46.469 in the path of Melissa or potentially in its 00:39:46.469 --> 00:39:49.409 path to monitor the official advisories. Those 00:39:49.409 --> 00:39:51.710 are issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:39:51.710 --> 00:39:54.559 Administration, or NOAA, specifically. the National 00:39:54.559 --> 00:39:57.210 Hurricane Center. Don't rely on rumors. Get the 00:39:57.210 --> 00:39:59.630 official word. Critical advice. Official sources 00:39:59.630 --> 00:40:01.650 only. And we also encourage you, if you want 00:40:01.650 --> 00:40:04.570 ongoing updates and analysis, to follow the creator 00:40:04.570 --> 00:40:07.590 of this show, meteorologist Rob Jones. He's very 00:40:07.590 --> 00:40:09.429 active on social media. Where can people find 00:40:09.429 --> 00:40:11.250 him? You can find him on Instagram. His handle 00:40:11.250 --> 00:40:14.409 is meteorologist. On TikTok, he's TV meteorologist. 00:40:14.590 --> 00:40:16.809 And on YouTube, just follow Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:40:16.969 --> 00:40:18.650 And on that YouTube channel, you can also find 00:40:18.650 --> 00:40:21.230 the playlist for this very show, Meteorology 00:40:21.230 --> 00:40:23.710 Matters. And of course, please do like, follow, 00:40:24.050 --> 00:40:25.610 comment, and rate to show wherever you listen, 00:40:25.690 --> 00:40:27.530 it really helps us out. You know, this whole 00:40:27.530 --> 00:40:30.090 deep dive into Melissa's physics, particularly 00:40:30.090 --> 00:40:33.690 that incredibly deep warm water layer, it really 00:40:33.690 --> 00:40:37.030 raises a crucial, maybe unsettling question for 00:40:37.030 --> 00:40:38.690 the future, something for all of us to think 00:40:38.690 --> 00:40:40.929 about long after Melissa passes. What's that? 00:40:41.130 --> 00:40:44.010 If we are now seeing these oceanic heat reservoirs, 00:40:44.010 --> 00:40:46.489 this deep warm water extending down 200 feet 00:40:46.489 --> 00:40:49.030 or more, becoming more common, maybe even the 00:40:49.030 --> 00:40:51.510 norm, in places like the Caribbean Sea or the 00:40:51.510 --> 00:40:55.099 Gulf of Mexico due to climate change, Are we 00:40:55.099 --> 00:40:58.320 fundamentally entering a new era? An era where 00:40:58.320 --> 00:41:00.800 category five potential is baseline. Exactly. 00:41:00.940 --> 00:41:03.519 An era where maybe category five intensity is 00:41:03.519 --> 00:41:06.579 no longer the rare anomaly, but becomes the expected 00:41:06.579 --> 00:41:09.320 potential outcome for any reasonably well -organized 00:41:09.320 --> 00:41:11.719 storm that encounters this kind of high -octane 00:41:11.719 --> 00:41:14.260 oceanic environment. That kind of shift would 00:41:14.260 --> 00:41:16.739 have truly terrifying implications for coastal 00:41:16.739 --> 00:41:18.699 communities, for building codes, for regional 00:41:18.699 --> 00:41:20.719 preparedness across the board. It's something 00:41:20.719 --> 00:41:22.579 we need to grapple with. You've been listening 00:41:22.579 --> 00:41:25.420 to Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist 00:41:25.420 --> 00:41:28.320 Rob Jones. Now that you've heard both our English 00:41:28.320 --> 00:41:30.940 and Spanish versions, we really want your feedback. 00:41:31.260 --> 00:41:33.760 Is this bilingual approach helping more people 00:41:33.760 --> 00:41:35.920 connect with the science, or just making things 00:41:35.920 --> 00:41:38.559 messy? Don't stay quiet, jump on our socials 00:41:38.559 --> 00:41:40.639 and let us know what you think. Like it, share 00:41:40.639 --> 00:41:43.039 it, drop a comment, or send us a message directly. 00:41:43.280 --> 00:41:45.599 Your reactions, good, bad, or brutal, will shape 00:41:45.599 --> 00:41:48.139 how we move forward. Thanks for listening, and 00:41:48.139 --> 00:41:50.719 remember, the weather always matters, but so 00:41:50.719 --> 00:41:51.400 does your opinion.