We are tracking a weather system of truly historic,
frankly terrifying dimensions this week down
in the Caribbean. Yeah, it's really shaping up
to be a major event. Our focus today is entirely
on Hurricane Melissa. It's a storm that has just
exploded in intensity over these incredibly warm
waters. Record waters, yeah. And now it looks
like it's aiming to become potentially the strongest
storm ever recorded to hit Jamaica. That's the
forecast and it's deeply concerning. We're going
beyond just the wind speed today. We want to
look at how the physics, the geography of the
islands and, well, human vulnerability are all
converging. It looks like a real worst case scenario
brewing. It really does. The ingredients are
all there. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the
podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos
and stories behind the weather that shapes our
world. This show was created by meteorologist
Rob Jones, and we're doing something new this
season, offering every episode in English and
Spanish. Yeah, that's right. Same stories, two
languages. Why? Because weather impacts everyone
and science should speak to all of us. But here's
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Comment, like, share or DM us and let it rip.
Now let's get into today's episode of Meteorology
Matters. OK, so as of right now, Sunday, October
26th, 2025, the picture from the National Hurricane
Center is, well, it's urgent. It's extremely
dire. Hurricane Melissa is sitting there as this
monster category four storm. Winds are packing
140 miles per hour sustained. A very powerful
cat four. And its location is critical. It's
about 110 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. That's
right. Close enough to be an imminent threat.
But the immediate danger isn't just that distance,
is it? It's the speed. or lack thereof. Exactly.
That slow pace is arguably the single most devastating
factor in this whole setup. Melissa is moving
at what the National Hurricane Center is calling
a near snail's pace. We're talking three to five
miles per hour. just crawling. Three to five
miles per hour. Yeah. And when you have a storm
this intense moving that slowly, think about
the duration, the extreme wind just stays and
stays. And maybe even more importantly, the rainfall.
Oh, the rainfall. The volume of rain dumped over
one single area gets multiplied exponentially.
You're not just getting a quick hit. You're facing
this hours long sustained siege. A siege. That's
a good word for it. Yeah. And the forecast track
is bringing this slow moving monster Right towards
Jamaica. Yeah, it's expected to keep drifting
west very slowly for maybe a few more hours,
just kind of sitting over that extremely warm
water, probably gathering even more strength.
Building strength. And then comes the pivot,
the anticipated turn. OK, when do we expect that?
We expect that turn towards the north and northeast
to really begin on Monday. And that track brings
the catastrophic core of the storm. You know,
the tight inner eye wall with the absolute strongest
winds near or over Jamaica. That's the official
wording. Late Monday into the early hours of
Tuesday morning. Late Monday, early Tuesday.
And the big concern here is that it keeps intensifying
during the slow crawl towards the island. That's
the key concern. Continued intensification. So
let's talk about that intensity prediction, because
this is where Melissa really seems to be separating
itself from. Well. from history in Jamaica. It's
already a beast at Cat 4. A strong Cat 4, yes.
But the consensus among the highest -end weather
models, the research we're seeing, is that strengthening
isn't just expected. It's likely to reach the
very top of the Saffir -Simpson scale. Yes. The
forecasts are now explicitly predicting Melissa
will achieve catastrophic Category 5 Intensity,
either right before or potentially right as it
makes its closest approach or landfall on Jamaica.
And if that happens? If that happens, Melissa
won't just rival the strongest storms in Jamaica's
history. It will officially surpass all recorded
historical storms to hit the island. It would
be the strongest on record. Strongest on record.
We have to compare this inevitably to Hurricane
Gilbert back in 1988. That's the benchmark, right?
The storm everyone remembers for the devastation
it caused. Gilbert is definitely the historical
benchmark. An intense, devastating storm. But
structurally, Melissa looks like it could present
an even more concentrated, maybe more severe
threat in some ways. How so? Well, Gilbert's
intensity was horrific, no question. But Melissa's
sustained wind speeds are forecast to be significantly
stronger. We're talking about potentially crossing
that 157 mile per hour threshold for Cat 5. OK,
stronger winds. But maybe the bigger difference
is the damage corridor. Gilbert essentially raked
the whole island from east to west. It spread
its worst impacts over a longer path. Right,
I remember that track. Melissa, because it's
forecast to turn north, is carving this narrower
but incredibly intense path, sort of a south
to north corridor. OK. And that path looks set
to directly impact major population centers,
critical infrastructure particularly along that
south coast with the absolute worst of the eye
wall. It's like a focused perpendicular assault.
So instead of spreading the damage, it's concentrating
the maximum energy on one area, including Kingston,
potentially. Exactly. It delivers the maximum
kinetic energy, the maximum force to structures
in that narrower zone. The gravity of this, it's
really reflected in the language coming out of
the National Hurricane Center, isn't it? They're
not mincing words. No, they've abandoned the
usual sort of measured meteorological tone. It's
a clear, urgent message now. They're saying time
has essentially run out. for people to prepare.
Run out. And they are telling every resident
in the potential path to seek shelter now, not
tomorrow, not later today, now. Seek shelter
now. And the warnings about the consequences,
what happens after the storm, are just as stark.
Equally stark. They're talking about extensive
infrastructural damage. And that's not just homes.
That's major roads, bridges, ports, the power
grid. everything, which leads directly to long
duration power and communication outages. We
could be talking weeks, maybe longer in the hardest
hit areas. Weeks without power or communication.
And critically, this leads to prolonged isolation
of communities. If roads are out, bridges are
down, communication is gone. Help can't get in.
Exactly. Rescue and relief efforts become incredibly
difficult, maybe impossible, for days after the
storm finally moves away. And that prolonged
isolation... directly impacts the advice they're
giving now, right? It's very specific about where
to shelter. Highly specific. People absolutely
must find shelter in sturdy concrete buildings,
not wood, not flimsy structures, concrete. And
crucially, above potential floodwaters. Above
any potential floodwaters, storm surge and freshwater
flooding are both extreme threats here. And the
duration. They're saying people need to be prepared
to stay put for a long time. Yeah, that duration
of stay is key. The advice is clear. People might
need to remain sheltered, completely self -sufficient,
for over 24 hours straight. Think about it. With
Melissa moving at that three to five mile per
hour pace, just the inner core, the eye wall
and the most intense surrounding bands could
take 12, maybe 18 hours just to pass over a single
point on the island. Wow. And that's not even
counting the hours of tropical storm conditions
before and after. So yeah, you absolutely need
enough food, water, medication, everything for
a full day, maybe longer, while the absolute
worst is happening outside. Okay, let's shift
focus slightly to the water threats because with
a slow -moving, intense hurricane hitting mountainous
islands like Jamaica, like Haiti, the rainfall
is often the biggest killer, isn't it? Sometimes
even more than the wind. It absolutely is. The
hydrological risk here is paramount. Melissa
is forecast to bring volumes of water that are
almost difficult to comprehend. The numbers I
saw were staggering. They are. We're looking
at widespread storm totals across the whole affected
region of 15 to 30 inches of rain that's forecast
through Wednesday. 15 to 30 inches widespread.
That alone is massive. But the real headline
is the local maxima. The potential in certain
spots, especially where the terrain enhances
the rainfall. We are talking about the possibility
of 40 inches or more of rain. Locally. 40 inches.
Can you put that into context for us? What does
40 inches of rain actually look like? Well, when
you start getting numbers like 30 or 40 inches
from a single storm system, you really have to
stop thinking in inches. You're measuring rainfall
in feet. Feet of rain. 40 inches is three and
a third feet of water falling out of the sky
onto the land, potentially over just 48 hours
or so. Unbelievable. And that incredible volume
is a direct result of two things. Melissa's slow
forward speed, just sitting there raining, and
the extremely efficient moisture generating engine
of a near category five hurricane sucking up
all that tropical moisture. And there's another
factor, isn't there? The ground conditions before
Melissa even gets there. That's a critical compound.
The ground across much of Jamaica and Hispaniola
is already saturated from previous smaller weather
systems that have moved through recently. So
it can't soak up any more water. Exactly. That
pre -existing saturation basically removes the
soil's ability to absorb any significant new
rainfall. It means nearly all of this torrential
rain immediately becomes surface runoff. overwhelming
immediate runoff. And that overwhelming runoff
hits the specific geology of Jamaica, which is
highly vulnerable. Jamaica is mountainous, characterized
by very steep slopes, high elevation changes,
deep valleys, a recipe for disaster with that
much water. It's extremely conducive to catastrophic
flash flooding in the valleys and rivers and
numerous widespread, potentially massive landslides
on those steep slopes. Landslides. We're looking
at what meteorologists call a compounding event.
The torrential rain saturates the mountainsides.
The immense weight of that water overcomes the
soil's friction. And you get huge amounts of
earth. rock debris just letting go and sliding
downhill. And that doesn't just block roads.
No, it can wipe out entire homes, entire communities
built on or below those slopes. It isolates regions
for weeks, maybe months if major roads are taken
out. It's a huge deadly threat. OK, so massive
freshwater flooding and landslides from the rain.
Then there's the other water threat. The storm
surge from the ocean, specifically targeting
the South Coast. Yes, a life threatening storm
surge hazard is expected along the south coast,
likely peaking late Monday through Tuesday morning
as the storm makes its closest approach. And
the forecast heights for that surge? They are
terrifying. Peak surge heights are projected
to reach 9 to 13 feet above the normal high tide
mark. 9 to 13 feet above normal high tide. Correct.
Concentrated near and, importantly, to the east
of wherever the center makes its closest approach
or landfall. Remember, the strongest winds pushing
the water are typically on the right side, the
east side, of a northbound storm in the northern
hemisphere. So if you factor in the normal high
tide itself, what kind of water levels are coastal
structures actually facing? You could easily
be looking at 15, maybe even close to 20 feet
of rushing destructive saltwater inundating the
immediate coastline in the worst hit areas. It's
not just standing water. It's driven by hurricane
force winds. We really need to highlight the
specific vulnerability of Kingston, the capital,
in this surge scenario. Its geography seems almost
perfectly designed to maximize the damage from
a storm coming from the south. tragically positioned
for this specific track. Kingston Harbour opens
directly to the south. Right into the oncoming
surge. Exactly. It's the precise direction the
peak surge will be coming from as Melissa moves
north. Experts have noted that the geometry of
the harbor, the way it narrows, acts like a giant
catcher's mitt. It catches the incoming surge,
funnels it, and potentially enhances its height
as it pushes into the densely populated coastal
areas around the harbor. And the absolute worst
-case scenario for Kingston's surge. Is if Melissa
makes landfall, or its closest approach, just
slightly west of Kingston, that would put the
capital in that right quadrant aligning the peak
surge perfectly with the harbor southward facing
entrance. That would be devastating. This puts
the Kingston International Airport in immediate
perhaps existential danger doesn't it? Absolutely.
The airport Norman Manley International is located
on a very narrow peninsula, technically a tombolo,
called the Palisados, that juts out, basically
enclosing the harbor. Very low lying, right?
Extremely low lying. If that 13 -foot surge materializes,
coinciding with the peak winds battering that
narrow strip of land, the forecast indicates
the entire airport facility would be completely
inundated, possibly destroyed. and losing that
airport. Losing that major logistical hub would
critically complicate any post -storm recovery
efforts for the entire country. Getting aid in,
getting people out, it becomes vastly harder.
Okay, looking beyond Jamaica now, Melissa's sheer
size means this catastrophe isn't confined to
one island. We have to talk about the expected
impacts on Hispaniola, particularly Haney and
also Cuba. Definitely. The situation shaping
up in Haiti, especially on the southwestern Tiberon
Peninsula, looks equally catastrophic, maybe
even more so given the existing vulnerabilities.
That area has already been hit by storms recently,
hasn't it, leaving the ground unstable? Yes,
the soil is already saturated and unstable from
previous heavy rains and storm activity. Now,
Melissa is forecast to bring catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides right through the middle
of the week. And the rainfall totals for Haiti?
Potentially even higher in spots than Jamaica.
Forecasts call for total rainfall, possibly reaching
three feet of water in the mountains there. Three
feet. Three feet of rain on those deforested,
unstable hillsides. It's unimaginable. And unlike
Jamaica, Haiti's infrastructure is far more fragile.
Housing is often less resilient. The potential
for loss of life there is extremely high with
this kind of sustained assault. And tragically
that earlier storm activity you mentioned has
already claimed lives in Haiti. Yeah. Even before
Melissa's corps arrives. That's a crucial heartbreaking
point. We already have confirmed deaths reported
from earlier storm impacts a landslide in the
Fontemara area near Port -au -Prince, a falling
tree in Marigot. Melissa's arrival will just
compound this ongoing tragedy. Isolated communities
further. potentially isolating entire villages
for weeks, especially where critical roads, which
are often just dirt tracks, are inevitably going
to be washed out or buried by landslides. Further
west, Cuba is also bracing for a significant
impact. There's a hurricane watch up for the
eastern provinces. That's right. Grandma Santiago
de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holgun provinces are all
under a hurricane watch. And what's the forecast
for Cuba? Still a major hurricane. The forecast
suggests it will still likely be a major hurricane
impact as it moves near or over eastern Cuba.
Rainfall is expected to be in the 10 to 15 inch
range generally, but local totals could hit 20
inches, especially in the mountainous Sierra
Meister region. And again, mountains plus torrential
rain equals. Life threatening flash flooding
and landslides. It's the same deadly equation.
It will particularly impact rural communities,
agriculture in that part of Cuba. And looking
further out is Melissa continues moving generally
north west after impacting the greater Antilles.
The risk profile then increases significantly
for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks. in
Caicos Islands by the middle of the week. They
need to be watching this very closely. And even
further down the line. Bermuda will need to monitor
the system later in the week as it potentially
curves out into the Atlantic. So the core takeaway
from all these impacts, it's the sheer slow motion
combined with this intense rainfall over mountainous
islands. It's just a perfect recipe for a multinational
disaster. It really is. It echoes some of the
worst historical storms in the Caribbean, like
maybe Hurricane Flora back in 1963, which also
stalled and caused horrific flooding and loss
of life across Hispaniola and Cuba due to its
slow movement. This is that kind of setup. OK,
we've established the truly devastating potential
impacts on people, on infrastructure, on the
geography. But all that destruction is ultimately
the result of this incredibly efficient, almost
perfect natural engine. Let's shift focus now
to the science, the thermodynamics, the physics
that are driving this monster towards category
five strength. Absolutely. Let's look under the
hood. Okay, first off, Melissa didn't just gradually
strengthen. It went through what's called rapid
intensification, or RI, extreme RI, actually.
It really did. It went from basically a low -end
tropical storm to a high -end category four hurricane
in just 24 hours. What's the official definition
for RI? The official threshold used by the National
Hurricane Center is a 35 mile per hour increase
in the maximum sustained wind speed over a 24
hour period. And also. Melissa essentially doubled
that rate. It jumped from roughly 70 mile per
hour winds to 140 mile per hour in that same
24 hour window. That's explosive strengthening.
What allows that kind of explosion to happen?
What are the ingredients? For that level of RI,
you generally need a perfect storm, meteorologically
speaking, of ingredients. Three key things. One,
very deep, very warm ocean water, the fuel. Two,
very low vertical wind shear, meaning the winds
aren't tearing the storm apart at different altitudes.
And three, high moisture content through a deep
layer of the atmosphere. Melissa found all three.
Let's focus on that first ingredient, the fuel
source, the warm water. That seems particularly
critical here. It absolutely is. The storm is
currently sitting over, churning up near record
warm Caribbean water. Sea surface temperatures
have been measured at a scorching 86 degrees
Fahrenheit. That's bath water temperature. 86
degrees. But it's not just the surface temp,
is it? It's the depth of that warmth. That is
the crucial element here. The research flights
and ocean buoy data show that this 86 degree
water isn't just a thin layer on the surface.
It extends down incredibly, about 200 feet deep.
200 feet of 86 degree water. Why is that depth
so critical for allowing a storm to get this
strong and stay this strong? OK, think about
what a strong hurricane does. Its powerful winds
churn the ocean surface violently. Normally this
process, which we call upwelling, mixes the water
and brings cooler water up from deeper down.
And that cooler water acts like a break, right?
It cuts off the fuel supply. Exactly. It typically
limits how strong a storm can get or causes it
to weaken. But because Melissa is churning over
200 feet of uniformly warm water, there's no
cool water to bring. Precisely. The storm is
completely protected from its own self -induced
upwelling. It has this immense, practically inexhaustible
reservoir of high -octane fuel beneath it that
allows it to reach and potentially sustain peak
intensity for a much longer period than it otherwise
could. Okay, so the water is the fuel. Let's
talk about the engine itself, this whole concept
of hurricanes being warm core systems. How does
releasing heat in the middle actually to actually
power the storm to these extreme wind speeds.
Right, so think of the hurricane as this massive
kind of inverted thermal engine. It's operating
between the warm, moist ocean surface and the
very cold upper atmosphere, maybe 40 ,000, 50
,000 feet up. Air spirals into the storm at the
surface, picks up heat and moisture, then rises
rapidly in these incredibly intense thunderstorms
that form the eyewall. And as that air rises?
As that warm, moist air rises and cools, the
vast amount of water vapor within it condenses
into cloud droplets and rain. This condensation
process releases an enormous amount of energy,
which we call latent heat, into the air surrounding
it. Latent heat release. Yes. And this happens
on a massive scale in the eye wall, creating
this powerful, buoyant column of exceptionally
warm air right in the center, in the core of
the storm. And this heat must be pretty extreme
in a storm like Bellissa. It is. The data gathered
by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew into
Melissa showed that the air inside the eye at
altitude was measured to be about 16 degrees
Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding air outside
the eye wall at the same level. 16 degrees warmer
in the eye. That massive temperature difference,
that column of exceptional warmth is a profound
indicator of a deeply intense, highly efficient,
well organized hurricane. It's the signature
of a storm that has basically maxed out its thermodynamics.
potential. And it's this intense heating mechanism
in the core that ultimately drives the extreme
wind speeds we see at the surface. It creates
like a vacuum. That's precisely right. Those
powerful updrafts in the eyewall fueled by the
latent heat release lift air away from the surface
incredibly rapidly. They literally remove air
mass from the center faster than air can rush
in at the bottom to replace it. Creating a void.
Creating a void? or more accurately, a massive
deficit in atmospheric pressure in the storm
center at the surface. Air from the higher pressure
areas outside the storm then rushes violently
inward trying to fill that low pressure void.
And that inward rush of air is the wind. That
is the hurricane force wind we measure. The stronger
the heating, the more air is lifted out, the
lower the central pressure drops, the steeper
the pressure gradient between the center and
the outside becomes, and the faster the wind
blows trying to equalize it. And the research
provided a really stunning number for just how
much air is missing from Melissa's center. Yeah,
the current analysis based on the pressure readings
suggests that approximately 6 % to 7 % of the
atmosphere's normal ambient mass is currently
missing from the column of air in Melissa's center.
6 % to 7 % of the air is just gone. Essentially
removed by the storm's dynamics. It's a staggering
amount. And the physics here are really nonlinear.
as the pressure measured in millibars drops lower
and lower. The winds ramp up faster and faster.
The pressure gradient force that forced driving
the air inwards intensifies exponentially. So
even a small further drop in the central pressure
now could translate into a massive jump in wind
speed. That's why we're seeing these Cat 5 predictions
becoming so likely. And where is the intensity
headed now? You mentioned it's nonlinear. It
doesn't just climb smoothly. Correct. Hurricane
intensification isn't usually a smooth upward
curve. It often involves these internal dynamics,
things like eyewall replacement cycles. where
an outer eye wall forms and chokes off the inner
one temporarily. That can cause the intensity
to briefly plateau or even dip slightly before
sometimes a sharp, abrupt re -intensification
occurs as the new, often larger eye wall consolidates.
So the forecast models have to grapple with that
complexity. They do. It makes pinpointing the
exact peak intensity tricky. However, the high
-end guidance, especially looking at some of
the advanced ensemble models, maybe even some
AI -driven predictions, like from Google DeepMind
research that's been emerging. Really showing.
They're consistently showing an over 80 % probability
now of Melissa reaching that critical Category
5 threshold, 157 mile -hour -hour -hour higher,
before it impacts Jamaica. Over 80 % chance of
Cat 5. Which tells us that even if the storm
fluctuates a bit, say between 150 mile -hour
-hour -hour Cat 4 and 160 mile -hour -hour Cat
5 right at the moment of peak impact. The results
on the ground are going to be catastrophic, regardless.
The impacts are effectively category five impacts,
whether it's, say, 55 or all cat four or 160
mile or cat five at landfall. Absolutely. For
the people experiencing this, the difference
between a really high end category four and a
category five is frankly academic. It's splitting
hairs. What matters is the prolonged duration
of those extreme winds, the astronomical rainfall,
the massive surge. The practical difference between
140 mile power winds and 160 mile power winds
is mostly measured in just how much more debris,
like plywood, sheet metal, signs, becomes airborne
and turns into potentially lethal projectiles.
The level of devastation is already locked in
as extreme. OK, this is where it gets, well,
really visceral. For the people who are currently
hunkered down in Jamaica waiting for this. they're
about to experience, or maybe are already starting
to experience, this terrifying sequential assault
on their sleizes. Let's try to walk through that
sensory journey. What is it actually like to
be inside the core of a storm this powerful?
Yeah, let's try and paint that picture because
preparation involves anticipating this sensory
onslaught. Long before the hurricane winds actually
arrive, maybe a day or two out, the first visual
clue that something immense is out there is off
in the sky itself. You mean those really vivid
sunrises and sunsets? Exactly. You get these
extra orange, deep pink, almost artificial -looking
sunrises and sunsets that's caused by the hurricane's
outflow, its upper -level exhaust system, basically
spreading these thin, icy cirrus clouds very
high up, maybe 35 ,000, 40 ,000 feet. And they
catch the light. They catch the low -angle sunlight
perfectly. at dawn and dusk. It's often eerily
beautiful, but it's the calling card of a very
large, very powerful system churning away offshore.
Okay, then as the storm gets closer, maybe within
12, 24 hours. You feel the air change first.
It becomes oppressively muggy, humid. Then the
outer rain bands start to arrive. These are often
intermittent. At first you get a short, sharp
downpour, maybe some gusty winds, then a brief
lull, then another band comes through. And the
wind starts picking up gradually. Right. It begins
maybe with just a casual swaying of the palm
trees, say 15, 20 mile an hour. The initial raindrops
in these outer bands are often quite large, fat,
distinct drops. But then the squalls become more
constant. Yeah, as you get closer to the core,
the squalls become more frequent, then eventually
merge into just constant rain and wind. Once
the wind hits sustained speeds of around 40 mile
an hour official tropical storm conditions, the
whole soundscape changes. How so? You start hearing
that frantic, noisy rustling and whipping sound
of palm fronds, you start hearing the first sounds
of light debris, small branches, leaves, maybe
loose items starting to blow around and hit things.
And the rain changes too. Pay attention to the
water, yeah. The research notes this distinct
transition. As the winds intensify, the raindrops
stop being big and fat. They become much smaller,
littler, but far more numerous, almost like a
spray. Driven by the wind. Driven hard by the
intense wind field. At this point, maybe in the
60 -70 mile per hour range, you're experiencing
rainfall rates that can easily exceed three inches
per hour. Puddles are no longer puddles. They
rapidly merge into sheen flooding because the
ground just can't absorb it anymore. Then you
cross that threshold, 74 -75 mile per hour, into
true hurricane force. What happens then? Okay,
now you're in it. The power is likely out by
now or will be soon. The rain is no longer really
falling downwards. It's being driven almost perfectly
horizontally. It becomes this constant spray
of tiny droplets. People describe it like being
blasted continuously by a fire hose, but one
set to a fine, stinging mist. Horizontal, stinging
mist. And because of that, freshwater intrusion
becomes a major problem inside structures, even
well -built ones. The wind pressure difference
between outside and inside becomes so immense.
It pushes water through tiny cracks. It physically
blows water through any tiny crack crevice it
can find. Under doors, around window frames,
through vents, even through seemingly solid walls
if there are any imperfections. People often
find their homes are getting wet, even flooding
slightly from the sides and top, not just from
water rising from the ground. Yeah. What does
Hurricane Force sound like? The sound becomes
overwhelming. It's not just wind noise anymore.
It's described as a constant, deep, chaotic roar.
Roar. Yeah. Many people who've been through it
compare it precisely to the sound of standing
next to a massive, continuous waterfall or maybe
a freight train that never passes. It's just
this all -encompassing, deafening roar right
outside your windows, sometimes for hours on
end. What causes that specific roaring sound?
It's believed to be caused by millions upon millions
of miniature vortices, tiny, intense whirls of
air constantly forming and shedding as the main
wind flow curls around every single physical
obstacle it encounters. Corners of buildings,
trees, power poles, fences. Each tiny vortex
contributes to this overall acoustic energy,
this pressure trauma on your ears. And you start
to hear the building itself reacting. Oh, yeah.
Inside, especially in a wood frame house, but
even in concrete structures, you will start to
hear your house creaking, groaning, maybe popping
sounds. That's the sound of the immense sustained
stress the wind is putting on the structure,
trying to lift the roof, trying to push in the
walls, flexing the frame. It's unsettling. And
speaking of unsettling internal effects. Let's
go back to that incredible detail from the research,
the toilet bowl phenomena. That image is so bizarrely
specific. Seeing the water in your toilet bowl
sloshing violently back and forth like you're
on a ship in rough seas. Isn't that amazing?
It is a truly stunning real world physical manifestation
of the storm's invisible power acting directly
on your house's systems. How does that work scientifically?
Okay, to understand it, you have to remember
your house's plumbing system, the drains from
sinks, showers, toilets, they're all connected
to a septic tank or the main sewer line, but
critically that system also has a vent pipe.
Right, usually sticking up through the roof.
Usually a pipe sticking out of the roof. That
vent pipe's job is to allow air pressure inside
your plumbing system to equalize with the outside
atmospheric pressure, preventing suction issues.
OK. Now imagine hurricane force winds maybe gusting
over 100, 120 mile per hour, screaming across
the top of that open vent pipe on your roof.
Those gusts cause rapid, extreme fluctuations
in the air pressure right at the mouth of that
pipe. So the pressure outside the pipe is going
crazy. Exactly. And that rapid pressure difference
compared to the relatively stable air pressure
trapped inside your sealed plumbing pipes below,
that differential is strong enough to physically
push and pull on the column of air inside the
pipes. And that moves the water. That push -pull
literally forces the fluids within the pipes,
including the water sitting peacefully in your
toilet bowl trap, to shift violently back and
forth until the pressures momentarily stabilize
again between gusts. It's a direct visualization
of the atmospheric pressure deficit we talked
about earlier. bathroom. That is a terrifyingly
brilliant illustration of the forces at play.
Okay, so the wind is roaring, the house is groaning,
the toilet is sloshing. As the pressure continues
to drop, we approach the most dangerous part,
the inner eye wall. But there might be a strange
lull just before it hits. Yes, sometimes right
on the immediate outskirts of the most intense
eye wall core, there can be a narrow band of
briefly sinking air. Meteorologists sometimes
call this the moat region. And the sinking air
causes the wind to decrease. For a short period,
yes. The wind speed might decrease quite noticeably,
maybe drop back down to strong tropical storm
force for a few minutes. The rain might lessen.
It can feel like a deceptive reprieve. Deceptive
is the key word. Absolutely. The research, the
warnings, they all emphasize this is not a chance
to relax or go outside and look around. This
is the absolute final moment you have to get
into the safest possible place in your shelter.
The most interior room, away from windows, on
the lowest floor, not subject to flooding, before
the absolute peak fury of the storm hits. And
when that eye wall hits, it's sudden. It's total.
It's often described as hitting like a wall.
Instantaneous. Total fury. You go from maybe
60 mile per hour winds in the moat to gusts well
over 110, 130, maybe 150 mile per hour or more
within minutes. Wow. It's a complete whiteout
event. Visibility drops to practically zero,
maybe less than 30 feet, sometimes just a few
feet. The rain becomes an opaque horizontal sheet
driven with such force it feels solid. And this
is where the major structural damage happens.
This is it. This is where you hear shingles and
siding peeling off like paper. This is where
wind even boarded ones might fail under the pressure
and impacts. This is where roofs can begin to
lift off. This is the stage where the wind easily
turns unsecured objects, even fairly large ones,
into deadly projectiles. There's another sense
involved here too, right? The sense of smell.
Yes, interestingly, researchers and survivors
often note a distinct, unique scent during the
peak of the eyewall passage. It's often described
as the smell of freshly cut grass, or maybe like
being inside a giant greenhouse. A greenhouse
smell. What cause is that? It's believed to be
the smell of freshly defoliated vegetation. The
incredible violence of the wind is literally
shredding every leaf, every needle, every bit
of green off the trees and plants in its path.
This massive shredding releases volatile organic
compounds from the damaged plant matter into
the air, creating that strange, slightly sweet
green scent amidst the chaos. Wow. And sometimes,
rarely, you might even get lightning in the eye
wall. It's exceedingly rare in a mature, well
-developed hurricane eyewall because the air
motion is predominantly horizontal, which isn't
great for the charge separation needed for lightning.
But if it happens? If you do see flashes of lightning
or hear an occasional crash of thunder embedded
within the eyewall's roar, that is considered
a profound signal. It usually indicates that
the updrafts within that section of the eyewall
have become so violently powerful, so turbulent,
that they are managing to generate significant
charge separation. It often points to an exceptionally
intense storm core or possibly one that is still
rapidly strengthening. But honestly, you'd be
lucky to even hear thunder over the sheer scream
of the wind at that point. Okay, so the eyewall
rages. As the storm continues its slow crawl,
the winds might become even more erratic on the
inner edge due to smaller vortices. Yes. Embedded
within the main eyewall circulation, you can
get these smaller, very intense whirlwinds called
mesovortices. They might only be a few miles
across, but they contain extreme winds and rotate
around within the main eye. As these sweep past,
they can cause sudden, violent, and direction
-changing gusts that are even stronger than the
background wind field. And then after potentially
hours of this eye -walled fury, suddenly... It
stops. Abruptly. If you are directly in the path
of the eye itself, the wind can drop from over
100 mph to almost calm, maybe just 10 -20 mph,
in a matter of minutes. The deafening roar ceases,
replaced by an eerie, almost unnatural quiet.
You've reached the eye. You're in the eye of
the hurricane. It's often described as a very
odd place. The physics flips. Instead of violently
rising air, the air in the center is gently sinking.
As it sinks, it compresses and warms. So the
sky clears. Often, yes. The skies brighten significantly.
You might see patches of blue sky, maybe even
glimpse the sun directly overhead if it's daytime,
even while the ground level might remain misty
or hazy with spray. And the soundscape changes
completely again. Totally. That massive roar
is gone. Instead, you hear this incredibly ill
-timed, unsettling chorus emerge from the wreckage.
What kind of chorus? Tree frogs. Crickets. Insects.
They all suddenly start chirping and singing
loudly, utterly disoriented, probably thinking
the storm has passed because the wind and rain
stopped. It's bizarrely noisy in a completely
different way. And you might see birds. Yes,
look up. You may well see exhausted, completely
disoriented birds flying around inside the eye.
They get swept into the storm, can't fight the
winds to get out, and essentially become trapped,
forced to fly along within the calm center. They
often fly until they reach land or just collapse
from exhaustion. And the most dramatic sight,
if you're lucky or unlucky enough to see it,
the stadium effect. Ah, the stadium effect. That
is the truly profound, perhaps once -in -a -lifetime
moment you might experience in a strong hurricane's
eye. If the clearing is wide enough and the eyewall
structure is sharp enough, you can see the wall
of clouds surrounding you. You can literally
look up and see the towering, nearly vertical
wall of the surrounding eyewall clouds completely
encircling the calm area you're standing in.
It looks like you are standing on the field at
the bottom of a giant churning stadium made of
cloud. is a moment of terrifying, awesome, terrible
beauty. But a moment that comes with a critical
warning. An absolutely critical warning. The
research, the survivor accounts, they all say,
the moment you might witness that stadium effect
or any clearing in the eye is not the time for
sightseeing. You need to assume the worst danger
is still ahead and get immediately back into
your safest shelter. Why is the eye itself still
so dangerous if the wind is calm where you are?
The danger is twofold, really. First, remember
those mesovortices we mentioned? Those smaller
whirlwinds? They don't just stay in the eye wall.
They can and do pivot right through the eye itself
without warning. Uh -huh. So you could get hit
by a sudden 80 mile per hour gust out of nowhere.
Easily. Gusts of 80 mile per hour or even higher,
changing direction rapidly, can sweep across
parts of the eye unexpectedly. If you're complacent
and step outside to assess damage, you could
be caught completely off guard and seriously
injured, or worse, by flying debris kicked up
by one of these vortices. OK, that's one danger.
What's the second? The second and perhaps even
more critical danger is the arrival of the back
side of the eye wall. When the eye passes and
the winds return, they will be blowing with just
as much fury as the front side. but from the
exact opposite direction. I mean, from the other
way. Exactly. And any structure, any tree, any
power line that was already damaged, weakened,
perhaps leaning from the initial hours -long
assault from one direction, is now going to be
hit by that same incredible force but pushing
it back the other way. And that often causes
total failure. That reverse pressure and force
is very often what causes structures that somehow
survive the first half of the storm to fail completely
during the second half. So the eye offers a brief
deceptive pause, but the danger is far from over.
In fact, some of the worst damage occurs when
the back eye wall hits. You know, stepping back
and looking at the whole picture. The magnitude
of the challenge facing Jamaica and Haiti and
Cuba right now is just immense. We've really
analyzed a true worst case convergence of factors
here. Yeah, it seems like everything lined up
in the worst possible way. You have that incredibly
slow forward speed. You have it sitting over
that unprecedented depth of extremely warm water,
providing almost limitless fuel. And then you
have that fuel colliding directly with highly
vulnerable, steep mountainous terrain. The terrain
interaction is key. It's absolutely key. When
a storm possessing Melissa's kind of thermodynamic
efficiency, its ability to process moisture,
slows down or stalls over steep geography, the
result isn't just measured in miles per hour
of wind, it's measured in feet of rain. And that
translates directly, inevitably, into catastrophic
life altering landslides and infrastructure failure.
It truly is the perfect meteorological storm
for disaster in that region. So let's recap the
key points for everyone. We've covered the immediate
historic threat. Hurricane Melissa, currently
south of Kingston, intensifying towards a possible
Category 5. That would make it the strongest
storm ever projected to hit Jamaica. A dire forecast.
It's bringing life -threatening storm surge,
potentially 9 to 13 feet above high tide, especially
dangerous for Kingston Harbour. We detailed the
unique, almost scary physics driving this intensity,
fueled by that 86 degree water extending 200
feet deep, creating that powerful warm core chimney
effect and the massive pressure drop. The engine
is running at full throttle. walked through that
terrifying multi -sensory experience of what
it's actually like to be inside the eye wall
from the house groaning, the waterfall roar,
the strange smells, to that bizarre but telling
toilet bowl phenomenon. A visceral experience,
no doubt. It is absolutely vital for everyone
in the path of Melissa or potentially in its
path to monitor the official advisories. Those
are issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, or NOAA, specifically. the National
Hurricane Center. Don't rely on rumors. Get the
official word. Critical advice. Official sources
only. And we also encourage you, if you want
ongoing updates and analysis, to follow the creator
of this show, meteorologist Rob Jones. He's very
active on social media. Where can people find
him? You can find him on Instagram. His handle
is meteorologist. On TikTok, he's TV meteorologist.
And on YouTube, just follow Rob Jones Hurricane.
And on that YouTube channel, you can also find
the playlist for this very show, Meteorology
Matters. And of course, please do like, follow,
comment, and rate to show wherever you listen,
it really helps us out. You know, this whole
deep dive into Melissa's physics, particularly
that incredibly deep warm water layer, it really
raises a crucial, maybe unsettling question for
the future, something for all of us to think
about long after Melissa passes. What's that?
If we are now seeing these oceanic heat reservoirs,
this deep warm water extending down 200 feet
or more, becoming more common, maybe even the
norm, in places like the Caribbean Sea or the
Gulf of Mexico due to climate change, Are we
fundamentally entering a new era? An era where
category five potential is baseline. Exactly.
An era where maybe category five intensity is
no longer the rare anomaly, but becomes the expected
potential outcome for any reasonably well -organized
storm that encounters this kind of high -octane
oceanic environment. That kind of shift would
have truly terrifying implications for coastal
communities, for building codes, for regional
preparedness across the board. It's something
we need to grapple with. You've been listening
to Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist
Rob Jones. Now that you've heard both our English
and Spanish versions, we really want your feedback.
Is this bilingual approach helping more people
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Your reactions, good, bad, or brutal, will shape
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remember, the weather always matters, but so
does your opinion.