WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.940 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. You know, sometimes 00:00:03.940 --> 00:00:06.019 the quietest moments in nature, well, they're 00:00:06.019 --> 00:00:07.580 the most intriguing, aren't they? They really 00:00:07.580 --> 00:00:09.919 can be. Right now, we're deep into hurricane 00:00:09.919 --> 00:00:14.279 season, but the Atlantic. It's seen this curious 00:00:14.279 --> 00:00:19.859 lull. On the surface, it feels almost deceptively 00:00:19.859 --> 00:00:22.940 calm. Deceptive is a good word for it. But what 00:00:22.940 --> 00:00:25.539 does that silence truly mean when you actually 00:00:25.539 --> 00:00:28.219 look beneath the surface? Is it a genuine break, 00:00:28.519 --> 00:00:30.980 or maybe just the quiet before something, well, 00:00:31.140 --> 00:00:33.259 something bigger? That's the million dollar question, 00:00:33.340 --> 00:00:35.359 isn't it? Yeah. And it's a crucial distinction 00:00:35.359 --> 00:00:37.859 we really need to dig into. While that recent 00:00:37.859 --> 00:00:40.899 calm might feel like a welcome breather for a 00:00:40.899 --> 00:00:43.100 lot of people, especially along the coast. Sure, 00:00:43.259 --> 00:00:45.000 yeah. The underlying conditions, they tell a 00:00:45.000 --> 00:00:48.479 much more dynamic and frankly, a pretty concerning 00:00:48.479 --> 00:00:51.070 story. Concerned how? we're observing some really 00:00:51.070 --> 00:00:53.549 significant shifts developing in the ocean and 00:00:53.549 --> 00:00:56.329 the atmosphere right now. Shifts that could dramatically 00:00:56.329 --> 00:00:59.210 shape the rest of this hurricane season and maybe 00:00:59.210 --> 00:01:01.630 even influence weather patterns well beyond that. 00:01:01.890 --> 00:01:04.489 It's a classic case of appearances being deceptive 00:01:04.489 --> 00:01:07.109 in meteorology and it definitely needs our focus. 00:01:07.909 --> 00:01:09.739 Exactly. And that's precisely why we're here 00:01:09.739 --> 00:01:12.459 today on Meteorology Matters. We're going to 00:01:12.459 --> 00:01:14.519 pull back the curtain on this tropical update, 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:17.280 connect it to some broader conversations happening 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.719 in weather science. Which are pretty interesting 00:01:19.719 --> 00:01:21.980 in themselves right now. Absolutely. And then 00:01:21.980 --> 00:01:24.480 we'll look ahead at what future weather patterns, 00:01:24.760 --> 00:01:27.599 specifically the potential return of La Nina, 00:01:28.060 --> 00:01:30.219 might mean for all of us as we head into the 00:01:30.219 --> 00:01:32.700 colder months. Right. Connecting the dots. Our 00:01:32.700 --> 00:01:35.459 mission, as always, is to give you, our listener, 00:01:35.780 --> 00:01:39.079 a clear, informed and really in -depth picture 00:01:39.079 --> 00:01:42.340 of these powerful forces at play in our atmosphere 00:01:42.340 --> 00:01:45.019 and oceans and ultimately what that means for 00:01:45.019 --> 00:01:48.140 you. So let's unpack this fascinating puzzle. 00:01:48.219 --> 00:01:50.719 Let's do it. Let's start with this quiet period 00:01:50.719 --> 00:01:53.780 in the Atlantic. It's been, what, at least 15 00:01:53.780 --> 00:01:57.079 days, a full two weeks since the last tropical 00:01:57.079 --> 00:01:59.280 storm was out there? That's right. A noticeable 00:01:59.280 --> 00:02:03.120 gap. Feels like a pretty significant quiet spell, 00:02:03.280 --> 00:02:05.140 wouldn't you say? Especially for this time of 00:02:05.140 --> 00:02:07.140 year. I mean, the historical data usually points 00:02:07.140 --> 00:02:10.080 to more action now. It is indeed remarkable, 00:02:10.599 --> 00:02:13.539 a notable quiet spell, especially when you stack 00:02:13.539 --> 00:02:16.199 it up against the historical averages for this 00:02:16.199 --> 00:02:20.300 point in the season. Typically by early September, 00:02:20.939 --> 00:02:23.680 which, you know, we often think of as the climatological 00:02:23.680 --> 00:02:25.759 peak. Right, the peak. We generally expect to 00:02:25.759 --> 00:02:28.080 have seen around eight named storms across the 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:31.409 basin. Eight? This year so far, only six named 00:02:31.409 --> 00:02:34.069 storms. So two behind average already. Exactly. 00:02:34.629 --> 00:02:36.550 And the difference gets even more pronounced, 00:02:36.770 --> 00:02:39.409 maybe even more telling, when you look at hurricanes. 00:02:39.949 --> 00:02:41.889 Historically by now, we usually have seen three 00:02:41.889 --> 00:02:43.990 hurricanes. Three hurricanes by early September. 00:02:44.370 --> 00:02:47.590 But this year, only one of those six named storms, 00:02:47.889 --> 00:02:50.750 hurricane Aaron, actually managed to reach hurricane 00:02:50.750 --> 00:02:53.889 strength. Just Aaron. Just Aaron. So yeah, the 00:02:53.889 --> 00:02:55.810 raw numbers definitely show a quieter start in 00:02:55.810 --> 00:02:58.539 terms of name systems. We're well behind schedule 00:02:58.539 --> 00:03:01.340 compared to an average season. So on the surface 00:03:01.340 --> 00:03:03.919 then, it looks like a much quieter start than 00:03:03.919 --> 00:03:06.960 usual. Fewer named storms, fewer hurricanes. 00:03:07.340 --> 00:03:10.139 But the big question is, does that really tell 00:03:10.139 --> 00:03:13.560 the whole story? Or, like you hinted, is there 00:03:13.560 --> 00:03:15.879 something more significant, maybe more potent, 00:03:16.439 --> 00:03:18.360 brewing underneath this calm that we need to 00:03:18.360 --> 00:03:19.919 be watching? Not at all. It doesn't tell the 00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:22.560 whole story. And this is precisely where digging 00:03:22.560 --> 00:03:25.000 into the meteorological data becomes absolutely 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:27.460 critical. Despite that recent lull and storm 00:03:27.460 --> 00:03:29.780 formation we just talked about, the research 00:03:29.780 --> 00:03:32.520 clearly shows that water temperatures across 00:03:32.520 --> 00:03:35.719 a huge portion of the Atlantic basin, all through 00:03:35.719 --> 00:03:37.919 the Caribbean Sea, and particularly within that 00:03:37.919 --> 00:03:41.180 contained basin of the Gulf of Mexico. Yeah, 00:03:41.699 --> 00:03:43.500 always a key area. They haven't just stayed warm. 00:03:43.680 --> 00:03:46.659 They've continued this relentless climb. In many 00:03:46.659 --> 00:03:48.719 of these areas, especially those really sensitive 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:51.000 zones for tropical development, these temperatures 00:03:51.000 --> 00:03:53.099 are actually at record high levels for this time 00:03:53.099 --> 00:03:56.159 of year. Record highs. Record highs. This isn't 00:03:56.159 --> 00:03:59.039 just a small fluctuation or a blip in the data. 00:03:59.419 --> 00:04:02.680 It represents this deep pervasive warmth, a truly 00:04:02.680 --> 00:04:04.860 exceptional heat anomaly that's been building 00:04:04.860 --> 00:04:07.750 for months. And when you say record high levels, 00:04:07.930 --> 00:04:10.469 are we talking what kind of temperatures? We're 00:04:10.469 --> 00:04:12.889 talking ocean temperatures pushing near 90 degrees 00:04:12.889 --> 00:04:15.289 Fahrenheit in significant parts of the Gulf of 00:04:15.289 --> 00:04:18.220 Mexico and the southwestern Atlantic. 90 degrees, 00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:21.199 wow. That's well above the, what is it, the 80 00:04:21.199 --> 00:04:23.480 degree threshold usually needed for storms to 00:04:23.480 --> 00:04:26.420 even get going. That's right. Way above that 00:04:26.420 --> 00:04:28.540 roughly 80 degree Fahrenheit minimum surface 00:04:28.540 --> 00:04:31.079 temperature needed to sustain the convection, 00:04:31.279 --> 00:04:33.879 the thunderstorm activity that's vital for tropical 00:04:33.879 --> 00:04:35.540 storm generation. It really sounds like we've 00:04:35.540 --> 00:04:38.079 got this like superheated bathtub out there, 00:04:38.100 --> 00:04:41.439 a massive energy reservoir just waiting. Your 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:45.319 analogy of a superheated bath is remarkably accurate, 00:04:45.560 --> 00:04:47.620 spot on. And while those surface temperatures 00:04:47.620 --> 00:04:50.800 are undeniably crucial, what's truly critical, 00:04:50.899 --> 00:04:53.399 and maybe less understood by the public, is what 00:04:53.399 --> 00:04:56.269 meteorologists call the Ocean heat content. Ocean 00:04:56.269 --> 00:04:58.029 heat content. OK, what's that exactly? So it's 00:04:58.029 --> 00:05:00.069 not just about the very top layer of the water, 00:05:00.209 --> 00:05:02.589 the skin that warms up quickly in the sun. It's 00:05:02.589 --> 00:05:05.449 about how warm the water is extending down, sometimes 00:05:05.449 --> 00:05:07.569 hundreds of feet, maybe even a thousand feet 00:05:07.569 --> 00:05:10.629 below the surface. Ah, the depth of the warmth. 00:05:10.850 --> 00:05:13.790 Exactly. And this year, the ocean heat content 00:05:13.790 --> 00:05:16.149 in the Gulf of Mexico specifically isn't just 00:05:16.149 --> 00:05:19.370 high, it's at record high levels. This exceptional 00:05:19.370 --> 00:05:21.689 warmth penetrating deep into the ocean column. 00:05:22.189 --> 00:05:24.490 that's particularly concerning. Why is that deep 00:05:24.490 --> 00:05:26.769 warmth so much more concerning than just hot 00:05:26.769 --> 00:05:29.829 surface water? Because it represents this vast, 00:05:30.470 --> 00:05:33.129 essentially inexhaustible reservoir of thermal 00:05:33.129 --> 00:05:35.829 energy. It's the ultimate fuel tank for a developing 00:05:35.829 --> 00:05:38.550 storm. OK. That deep warmth sounds like a really 00:05:38.550 --> 00:05:40.750 significant factor, almost like this hidden engine 00:05:40.750 --> 00:05:43.350 driving potential storm power. Can you maybe 00:05:43.350 --> 00:05:46.050 elaborate a bit more on why that deep ocean heat 00:05:46.050 --> 00:05:48.149 content is so critical, not just for getting 00:05:48.149 --> 00:05:50.470 a storm started, but maybe for how strong it 00:05:50.470 --> 00:05:52.730 can get? It is absolutely critical. And here's 00:05:52.730 --> 00:05:55.050 why it needs our full attention. When the water 00:05:55.050 --> 00:05:57.569 is warm deep down, not just at the surface, it 00:05:57.569 --> 00:06:00.730 provides this continuous, readily available fuel 00:06:00.730 --> 00:06:03.410 source for any tropical system that forms or 00:06:03.410 --> 00:06:06.269 moves over it. Think of it like this. A hurricane 00:06:06.269 --> 00:06:09.069 gets its energy from releasing latent heat when 00:06:09.069 --> 00:06:12.250 water vapor evaporated from that warm ocean surface 00:06:12.250 --> 00:06:15.670 condenses. Now, if the surface water is warm, 00:06:16.230 --> 00:06:19.120 but the layers underneath are cool, A strong 00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:21.899 storm can actually churn up that cooler water 00:06:21.899 --> 00:06:25.040 from below. And that weakens it. Exactly. It 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:27.360 effectively cuts off its own fuel supply and 00:06:27.360 --> 00:06:30.339 weakens itself. It's a natural break. But with 00:06:30.339 --> 00:06:33.860 deep warm water, a storm can mix the ocean really 00:06:33.860 --> 00:06:36.439 vigorously without hitting those cooler layers. 00:06:36.680 --> 00:06:40.279 Oh, so no break. No break. This deep warmth is 00:06:40.279 --> 00:06:43.079 crucial. because it helps tropical systems not 00:06:43.079 --> 00:06:46.600 just intensify, but rapidly intensify. It lets 00:06:46.600 --> 00:06:48.500 them draw immense amounts of energy from the 00:06:48.500 --> 00:06:51.259 ocean without any hindrance. Rapid intensification. 00:06:51.279 --> 00:06:53.240 We hear that term a lot, and it always sounds 00:06:53.240 --> 00:06:56.000 scary. It should sound scary. And this deep heat 00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.399 makes them far less likely to weaken once they've 00:06:58.399 --> 00:07:00.879 formed, even if they hit, say, a temporary patch 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:03.000 of atmospheric resistance like some wind shear. 00:07:03.019 --> 00:07:04.939 They can just power through it. They can maintain 00:07:04.939 --> 00:07:06.839 their strength, or even keep growing, because 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:10.019 that deep, warm water acts like this inexactable 00:07:10.019 --> 00:07:13.079 bath - constantly recharging the system. It creates 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:15.379 a much more robust, resilient, and potentially 00:07:15.379 --> 00:07:18.019 devastating storm. It makes it possible for storms 00:07:18.019 --> 00:07:20.420 to become major hurricanes in a shockingly short 00:07:20.420 --> 00:07:24.040 time. So if a storm does manage to develop in 00:07:24.040 --> 00:07:26.560 a place like the Gulf of Mexico with that record 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:30.089 high ocean heat content... You're basically saying 00:07:30.089 --> 00:07:32.290 there's significantly less time for people on 00:07:32.290 --> 00:07:34.589 the coast to get ready for its full impact. Precisely. 00:07:34.730 --> 00:07:37.189 The strengthening could be so quick that the 00:07:37.189 --> 00:07:39.329 window for evacuation, boarding up, all that 00:07:39.329 --> 00:07:41.889 stuff, it just shrinks dramatically. That's one 00:07:41.889 --> 00:07:44.389 of the most critical and dangerous aspects of 00:07:44.389 --> 00:07:48.350 having record ocean heat content in regions like 00:07:48.350 --> 00:07:51.449 the Gulf. Rapid intensification means a storm 00:07:51.449 --> 00:07:54.029 can ramp up from, say, a relatively minor tropical 00:07:54.029 --> 00:07:57.009 depression or tropical storm to a powerful, even 00:07:57.009 --> 00:08:00.569 a major, hurricane. in a very short period, sometimes 00:08:00.569 --> 00:08:03.389 less than 24 to 48 hours. Less than two days. 00:08:03.470 --> 00:08:05.970 Wow. Yeah. And that dramatically compresses the 00:08:05.970 --> 00:08:08.189 timeline for emergency managers to issue warnings, 00:08:08.589 --> 00:08:10.389 for residents to make those critical life or 00:08:10.389 --> 00:08:12.649 death decisions, and for communities to actually 00:08:12.649 --> 00:08:15.529 implement their preparedness plans. You get significantly 00:08:15.529 --> 00:08:17.670 less preparation time compared to storms that 00:08:17.670 --> 00:08:20.069 strengthen more gradually way out in the central 00:08:20.069 --> 00:08:21.949 Atlantic. That difference in lead time, that 00:08:21.949 --> 00:08:24.149 could be everything. It can literally be the 00:08:24.149 --> 00:08:26.970 difference between life and death, or between 00:08:26.970 --> 00:08:29.550 huge property damage. and more manageable impacts. 00:08:29.910 --> 00:08:32.529 It's a critical distinction. And it really underscores 00:08:32.529 --> 00:08:36.309 the need for constant vigilance and proactive 00:08:36.309 --> 00:08:39.149 year -round preparedness, especially in coastal 00:08:39.149 --> 00:08:41.909 communities near these warm water bodies. So 00:08:41.909 --> 00:08:44.809 the speed is the real killer here. The speed 00:08:44.809 --> 00:08:48.009 with which these systems can change means every 00:08:48.009 --> 00:08:51.009 single moment counts. Early action is absolutely 00:08:51.009 --> 00:08:53.379 paramount. Okay, so we've established this. We 00:08:53.379 --> 00:08:55.940 have exceptionally warm water, especially that 00:08:55.940 --> 00:08:58.799 deep ocean heat content, just sitting there primed, 00:08:58.799 --> 00:09:01.779 ready to go. But despite that, we've had this 00:09:01.779 --> 00:09:04.799 lull in activity recently. So the natural question 00:09:04.799 --> 00:09:07.690 is... What exactly has been holding back these 00:09:07.690 --> 00:09:10.250 potential storms? What's been the atmospheric 00:09:10.250 --> 00:09:12.190 resistance, as you put it, that's been counteracting 00:09:12.190 --> 00:09:14.289 all that ocean energy? That's the other crucial 00:09:14.289 --> 00:09:16.309 half of this complex weather equation. Yeah. 00:09:16.409 --> 00:09:18.149 And it really is like a delicate atmospheric 00:09:18.149 --> 00:09:20.210 dance. For the past couple of weeks, we've seen 00:09:20.210 --> 00:09:24.210 this vast persistent zone of dry air, often full 00:09:24.210 --> 00:09:26.429 of dust. Saharan dust, right? We hear about that. 00:09:26.610 --> 00:09:29.330 Exactly. Saharan dust is a big player. And that's 00:09:29.330 --> 00:09:32.169 been coupled with extensive areas experiencing 00:09:32.169 --> 00:09:34.950 what we call combative winds, or more commonly, 00:09:34.960 --> 00:09:39.039 wind shear. These two things, dry air and wind 00:09:39.039 --> 00:09:41.980 shear, acting together, have largely functioned 00:09:41.980 --> 00:09:44.559 as powerful suppressors. They've effectively 00:09:44.559 --> 00:09:46.799 hindered tropical development and stopped any 00:09:46.799 --> 00:09:49.539 significant storm from really taking hold or 00:09:49.539 --> 00:09:52.320 rapidly intensifying. Like a lid on a boiling 00:09:52.320 --> 00:09:54.840 pot. That's a great way to put it. A strong, 00:09:55.320 --> 00:09:58.100 persistent lid on top of that superheated ocean, 00:09:58.360 --> 00:10:01.019 keeping the potential energy bottled up. And 00:10:01.019 --> 00:10:03.480 where is this dry air coming from? Is it just 00:10:03.480 --> 00:10:05.919 hanging out over the Atlantic, or are there bigger 00:10:05.919 --> 00:10:07.960 weather patterns pushing it in? Oh, it's definitely 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:10.759 part of a broader intercontinental pattern. Much 00:10:10.759 --> 00:10:12.759 of this dry air has originated from distinct 00:10:12.759 --> 00:10:15.620 places. We've seen significant plumes of dry, 00:10:15.740 --> 00:10:18.080 dusty air coming all the way from the Sahara 00:10:18.080 --> 00:10:19.980 Desert and traveling across the Atlantic. All 00:10:19.980 --> 00:10:21.879 the way from Africa. All the way from Africa. 00:10:22.139 --> 00:10:24.500 Plus, we've also had dry air masses from Canada 00:10:24.500 --> 00:10:26.320 getting pulled into the circulation over the 00:10:26.320 --> 00:10:29.139 Atlantic. OK, so multiple sources. And adding 00:10:29.139 --> 00:10:31.779 to that... The overall circulation around the 00:10:31.779 --> 00:10:33.960 big central Atlantic high pressure system. The 00:10:33.960 --> 00:10:36.960 Bermuda High, sometimes. Sometimes, yeah. That, 00:10:37.279 --> 00:10:39.100 along with another large high pressure zone sitting 00:10:39.100 --> 00:10:41.559 over the eastern United States, has played a 00:10:41.559 --> 00:10:44.889 big role. These high -pressure systems create 00:10:44.889 --> 00:10:48.350 strong upper -level winds, and those winds contribute 00:10:48.350 --> 00:10:51.250 to and maintain that strong wind shear. Right, 00:10:51.289 --> 00:10:53.110 the wind shear. Can you break that down simply? 00:10:53.230 --> 00:10:55.950 What does it actually do to a storm? Sure. Wind 00:10:55.950 --> 00:10:58.070 shear is essentially a rapid change in wind speed 00:10:58.070 --> 00:11:00.409 or direction as you go up higher in the atmosphere. 00:11:01.009 --> 00:11:03.769 Strong wind shear literally rips apart the vertical 00:11:03.769 --> 00:11:06.389 structure of a developing tropical system. It 00:11:06.389 --> 00:11:09.169 tilts its central column. Tilts it. Imagine trying 00:11:09.169 --> 00:11:12.000 to build a tall tower of blocks. Yeah. keeps 00:11:12.000 --> 00:11:13.860 blowing harder. And from different directions 00:11:13.860 --> 00:11:15.779 as you build higher, it just knocks it over. 00:11:16.179 --> 00:11:18.399 It prevents that crucial heat engine from getting 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:21.320 organized into a sustained symmetrical circulation. 00:11:21.899 --> 00:11:23.919 It basically shreds the storm before it can get 00:11:23.919 --> 00:11:26.460 strong. OK, that makes a lot of sense. So you 00:11:26.460 --> 00:11:29.860 have these two big opposing forces, the ocean 00:11:29.860 --> 00:11:32.179 trying to fuel the storms and the atmosphere 00:11:32.179 --> 00:11:34.899 with dry air and sheer trying to tear them apart. 00:11:35.120 --> 00:11:37.379 Exactly. A tug of war. But these atmospheric 00:11:37.379 --> 00:11:40.019 conditions, they aren't static, right? They don't 00:11:40.019 --> 00:11:42.320 just stay the same all season long. Things change. 00:11:42.639 --> 00:11:45.059 They are absolutely not static. In fact, they're 00:11:45.059 --> 00:11:47.879 notoriously dynamic. And this is exactly why 00:11:47.879 --> 00:11:50.299 our vigilance becomes even more critical for 00:11:50.299 --> 00:11:53.059 the coming weeks. The latest research, the weather 00:11:53.059 --> 00:11:55.659 models we look at, they indicate that these atmospheric 00:11:55.659 --> 00:11:57.980 conditions, the ones that have been so good at 00:11:57.980 --> 00:12:01.360 suppressing storms, are expected to change significantly. 00:12:01.559 --> 00:12:03.820 Oh, soon. We're expecting much more conducive 00:12:03.820 --> 00:12:05.820 conditions for tropical development. That means 00:12:05.820 --> 00:12:09.679 less wind shear, less dry, dusty air. Yeah. And 00:12:09.679 --> 00:12:11.460 this could return as early as next week. Next 00:12:11.460 --> 00:12:14.299 week. And remember, as we just spent time discussing, 00:12:14.779 --> 00:12:17.720 all that very warm water, that deep record level 00:12:17.720 --> 00:12:20.419 ocean heat content, it's still sitting there. 00:12:20.419 --> 00:12:22.720 Weighted. Fully charged and ready to be tapped. 00:12:22.960 --> 00:12:24.879 So the atmospheric lid is about to come off. 00:12:25.179 --> 00:12:27.870 It looks like it. This imminent shift in the 00:12:27.870 --> 00:12:30.269 atmosphere means that the breaks on tropical 00:12:30.269 --> 00:12:33.289 activity could be easing very soon, paving the 00:12:33.289 --> 00:12:35.350 way for a potentially rapid increase in storm 00:12:35.350 --> 00:12:39.049 formation and strengthening. Wow. That sounds 00:12:39.049 --> 00:12:41.850 like a recipe for a significant increase in activity, 00:12:42.049 --> 00:12:44.070 especially with all that energy just stored up 00:12:44.070 --> 00:12:48.330 in the ocean. As forecasters, is there one area 00:12:48.330 --> 00:12:51.529 maybe of particular concern that you and your 00:12:51.529 --> 00:12:53.269 colleagues are watching really closely as these 00:12:53.269 --> 00:12:56.779 conditions start to shift? There is, yes. One 00:12:56.779 --> 00:12:59.360 zone in particular really demands our heightened 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:01.980 attention right now. It's the region stretching 00:13:01.980 --> 00:13:04.899 from the western part of the Caribbean Sea northward 00:13:04.899 --> 00:13:07.559 into the entire expanse of the Gulf of Mexico. 00:13:07.799 --> 00:13:10.019 Western Caribbean and the Gulf, okay. This area 00:13:10.019 --> 00:13:12.700 has historically been a hotbed for tropical activity. 00:13:13.059 --> 00:13:15.620 We often see storms develop there early and late 00:13:15.620 --> 00:13:18.080 in the season. But honestly, it's a region where 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:20.379 development can happen any time if the conditions 00:13:20.379 --> 00:13:22.279 are right. And conditions might be getting right 00:13:22.279 --> 00:13:25.039 soon. With the anticipated easing of wind shear 00:13:25.039 --> 00:13:28.200 and less dry air, combined with that extreme 00:13:28.200 --> 00:13:30.419 record -breaking ocean warmth we talked about. 00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:34.299 Yes. This area becomes a prime candidate for 00:13:34.299 --> 00:13:36.620 future tropical development. And critically, 00:13:36.830 --> 00:13:39.649 for rapid intensification. And storms forming 00:13:39.649 --> 00:13:42.210 there are closer to land, less warning time again. 00:13:42.330 --> 00:13:44.769 Exactly. That geographic area is also concerning 00:13:44.769 --> 00:13:46.929 because storms developing there can threaten 00:13:46.929 --> 00:13:50.269 heavily populated coastal areas with significantly 00:13:50.269 --> 00:13:52.769 reduced warning times compared to storms forming 00:13:52.769 --> 00:13:55.269 way out east. We also saw Hurricane Aaron earlier 00:13:55.269 --> 00:13:58.129 this season just explode into a category five 00:13:58.129 --> 00:14:00.470 storm in less than 25 hours, didn't we? We did. 00:14:00.529 --> 00:14:03.009 That was just astonishing and terrifying. It 00:14:03.009 --> 00:14:05.110 feels like a really stark preview of what could 00:14:05.110 --> 00:14:07.639 happen if these conditions line up again at deep 00:14:07.639 --> 00:14:10.399 ocean heat and easing atmospheric suppression. 00:14:10.980 --> 00:14:12.659 You're absolutely right to bring Aaron up. That 00:14:12.659 --> 00:14:15.299 rapid intensification event was a stark, powerful, 00:14:15.659 --> 00:14:18.379 and truly sobering illustration. It showed precisely 00:14:18.379 --> 00:14:20.519 how favorable atmospheric conditions, when they 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:23.120 combine with that deep, warm water, can fuel 00:14:23.120 --> 00:14:25.679 an incredibly fast and dramatic increase in storm 00:14:25.679 --> 00:14:28.500 strength. From tropical storm to Cat 5 and under 00:14:28.500 --> 00:14:31.620 a day, it's rare, it's extreme, and it's exceptionally 00:14:31.620 --> 00:14:35.909 dangerous. It's a vivid reminder of the immense 00:14:35.909 --> 00:14:38.350 potential for strength when all the pieces align. 00:14:38.490 --> 00:14:41.210 And it's why the current forecast for easing 00:14:41.210 --> 00:14:43.809 atmospheric suppression layered on top of the 00:14:43.809 --> 00:14:47.389 existing widespread record ocean heat is so concerning 00:14:47.389 --> 00:14:49.570 for the upcoming weeks. It really highlights 00:14:49.570 --> 00:14:52.730 how volatile these systems can be. And unpredictable 00:14:52.730 --> 00:14:54.929 sometimes. It really underscores the need for 00:14:54.929 --> 00:14:57.070 preparedness. It puts things into perspective, 00:14:57.389 --> 00:14:59.629 too. These aren't just isolated weather events, 00:14:59.629 --> 00:15:02.149 are they? They're part of this much larger global 00:15:02.149 --> 00:15:04.470 system trying to balance heat across the planet. 00:15:04.870 --> 00:15:07.149 Precisely. And as that system gets more energized 00:15:07.149 --> 00:15:09.750 by these incredibly warm oceans, the potential 00:15:09.750 --> 00:15:13.029 for these really strong, rapidly intensifying, 00:15:13.110 --> 00:15:15.210 devastating events just goes up. It feels like 00:15:15.210 --> 00:15:17.149 the whole engine of weather is running hotter. 00:15:17.490 --> 00:15:19.029 That's a very good way to think about it. It's 00:15:19.029 --> 00:15:21.669 vital to remember that depressions, tropical 00:15:21.669 --> 00:15:24.929 storms, hurricane systems, they play a fundamental, 00:15:25.429 --> 00:15:28.110 integral role in Earth's massive atmospheric 00:15:28.110 --> 00:15:31.710 engine. Their primary job in this grand global 00:15:31.710 --> 00:15:35.990 system is to move heat. to disperse and redistribute 00:15:35.990 --> 00:15:39.070 excess heat away from the tropics and push it 00:15:39.070 --> 00:15:41.509 towards the mid -latitudes. Like giant planetary 00:15:41.509 --> 00:15:44.769 air conditioners. In a way, yes. Acting as a 00:15:44.769 --> 00:15:47.210 crucial planetary cooling mechanism. It's how 00:15:47.210 --> 00:15:49.269 the planet tries to maintain a thermal balance. 00:15:49.769 --> 00:15:51.850 So the more heat that builds up and accumulates 00:15:51.850 --> 00:15:53.470 in the tropics, like we're seeing now with these 00:15:53.470 --> 00:15:56.230 persistent record high ocean temperatures, the 00:15:56.230 --> 00:15:58.509 greater the potential energy available for multiple 00:15:58.509 --> 00:16:01.299 strong hurricanes to form. potentially rapidly 00:16:01.299 --> 00:16:03.600 intensifying ones if those feverable atmospheric 00:16:03.600 --> 00:16:05.879 conditions for formation are present. More fuel 00:16:05.879 --> 00:16:08.759 means bigger potential fires essentially. Exactly 00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:10.639 they are nature's way of releasing that pent 00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:12.639 -up energy and the more energy available the 00:16:12.639 --> 00:16:14.419 more forceful and potentially frequent that release 00:16:14.419 --> 00:16:17.059 can be. This underlying principle really ties 00:16:17.059 --> 00:16:19.159 all these pieces together. Understanding these 00:16:19.159 --> 00:16:21.500 powerful weather patterns you know these potential 00:16:21.500 --> 00:16:24.919 shifts and the mechanics behind them it all relies 00:16:24.919 --> 00:16:28.720 so heavily on robust scientific research. Absolutely 00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:31.669 the foundation. And as we know, that science 00:16:31.669 --> 00:16:34.509 is constantly evolving. It's often fiercely debated, 00:16:34.649 --> 00:16:37.149 and it's always subject to rigorous review and 00:16:37.149 --> 00:16:40.450 critical examination. It's not static. It's a 00:16:40.450 --> 00:16:43.970 living, breathing thing. Indeed. And it's a dynamic 00:16:43.970 --> 00:16:46.769 process we've actually seen play out quite publicly 00:16:46.769 --> 00:16:49.629 just recently. There's been significant discussion 00:16:49.629 --> 00:16:51.610 around how weather science gets interpreted, 00:16:52.250 --> 00:16:54.450 especially when it comes to informing policy 00:16:54.450 --> 00:16:58.340 and... public understanding. For example, a working 00:16:58.340 --> 00:17:00.659 group within the energy department recently put 00:17:00.659 --> 00:17:03.659 out a report that took some, let's say, contrarian 00:17:03.659 --> 00:17:06.359 positions on several key weather topics. Contrarian 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:08.660 how? Well, they questioned things like whether 00:17:08.660 --> 00:17:10.299 weather change is actually making hurricanes 00:17:10.299 --> 00:17:12.920 more intense, something highly relevant to our 00:17:12.920 --> 00:17:15.099 discussion about ocean heat, and also questioned 00:17:15.099 --> 00:17:17.619 some aspects of the long -term effects of higher 00:17:17.619 --> 00:17:20.410 CO2 levels in the atmosphere. These positions 00:17:20.410 --> 00:17:22.829 really diverged quite sharply from the broadly 00:17:22.829 --> 00:17:25.569 accepted scientific consensus within the wider 00:17:25.569 --> 00:17:27.970 meteorological and atmospheric science communities. 00:17:28.410 --> 00:17:30.670 And that report, I remember it drew a lot of 00:17:30.670 --> 00:17:32.710 attention and a pretty strong reaction, right? 00:17:32.890 --> 00:17:36.049 Lots of scientists pushed back hard, citing errors, 00:17:36.309 --> 00:17:38.630 omissions. That's correct. It wasn't just a quiet 00:17:38.630 --> 00:17:40.690 academic disagreement, it became a very public 00:17:40.690 --> 00:17:42.609 debate. Highlighting how science corrects itself, 00:17:42.630 --> 00:17:45.170 I suppose. Exactly. The response from the scientific 00:17:45.170 --> 00:17:48.430 community was immediate and substantial. Dozens 00:17:48.430 --> 00:17:51.470 of highly respected scientists released detailed 00:17:51.470 --> 00:17:54.009 rebuttals. They meticulously pointed out what 00:17:54.009 --> 00:17:56.950 they identified as errors, methodological flaws, 00:17:57.549 --> 00:17:59.269 significant omissions in that energy department 00:17:59.269 --> 00:18:02.390 report. So a thorough critique. Very thorough. 00:18:03.250 --> 00:18:05.089 And this robotic response really underscored 00:18:05.089 --> 00:18:07.390 the importance of scientific consensus, which 00:18:07.390 --> 00:18:10.230 isn't just opinion. It's built on repeated verifiable 00:18:10.230 --> 00:18:13.130 evidence and rigorous peer review. But it also 00:18:13.130 --> 00:18:15.930 showed that critical process of open scientific 00:18:15.930 --> 00:18:18.410 debate and review playing out. What happened 00:18:18.410 --> 00:18:20.769 with the group that wrote the report? Well, in 00:18:20.769 --> 00:18:23.250 the face of this widespread critique, the Energy 00:18:23.250 --> 00:18:25.869 Department eventually dissolved the group. They 00:18:25.869 --> 00:18:29.529 stated the report had achieved its purpose of 00:18:29.529 --> 00:18:33.930 catalyzing bread or discussion. Interesting phrasing. 00:18:34.230 --> 00:18:37.559 Indeed. But this whole episode clearly underscores 00:18:37.559 --> 00:18:40.440 a fundamental principle in science. Questions 00:18:40.440 --> 00:18:43.140 are essential for progress, absolutely encouraged. 00:18:43.579 --> 00:18:46.500 However, any conclusions or findings must be 00:18:46.500 --> 00:18:49.799 rigorously supported by solid, verifiable evidence 00:18:49.799 --> 00:18:52.299 and be able to withstand peer scrutiny. The evidence 00:18:52.299 --> 00:18:55.500 has to back it up. Precisely. This ongoing pursuit 00:18:55.500 --> 00:18:58.539 of, as one spokesperson put it, a more science 00:18:58.539 --> 00:19:00.799 -based and less ideological conversation around 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:03.359 weather science is vital for maintaining accuracy 00:19:03.359 --> 00:19:05.839 and public trust. Beyond these internal debates 00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:08.119 though, weather research itself keeps breaking 00:19:08.119 --> 00:19:10.279 new ground, right? Especially in understanding 00:19:10.279 --> 00:19:13.220 the impacts of these powerful forces. I'm thinking 00:19:13.220 --> 00:19:15.579 of some recent studies making incredibly precise 00:19:15.579 --> 00:19:18.279 connections between specific weather events and 00:19:18.279 --> 00:19:20.799 these broader long -term trends. It feels like 00:19:20.799 --> 00:19:22.960 attribution science is getting really sophisticated. 00:19:23.200 --> 00:19:26.539 Precisely. It's moving forward rapidly. One fascinating 00:19:26.539 --> 00:19:29.500 and truly groundbreaking area of research published 00:19:29.500 --> 00:19:32.799 recently has actually, for the first time, quantified 00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:35.960 the causal links between worsening heat waves 00:19:35.960 --> 00:19:38.400 around the world and the global warming pollution 00:19:38.400 --> 00:19:40.819 coming from individual fossil fuel and cement 00:19:40.819 --> 00:19:43.180 companies. Individual companies, not just... 00:19:43.180 --> 00:19:46.140 overall human activity, but specific entities. 00:19:46.500 --> 00:19:49.240 Specific entities. This represents a significant 00:19:49.240 --> 00:19:51.720 leap forward. It's pushing the boundaries of 00:19:51.720 --> 00:19:54.440 extreme weather event research in surprising 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:56.960 and pretty profound ways because it moves beyond 00:19:56.960 --> 00:19:59.619 just general statements about human impact towards 00:19:59.619 --> 00:20:02.819 specific attributable causation linked to particular 00:20:02.819 --> 00:20:06.019 corporate actors. Wow. So actually tracing specific 00:20:06.019 --> 00:20:08.539 real -world heat waves back to specific companies. 00:20:08.579 --> 00:20:11.559 That sounds like a monumental task. Almost impossible 00:20:11.559 --> 00:20:14.299 scientifically. even do that? It is indeed monumental 00:20:14.299 --> 00:20:16.460 and it really speaks volumes about the increasing 00:20:16.460 --> 00:20:19.519 sophistication of modern weather science and 00:20:19.519 --> 00:20:22.019 computational modeling. The study looked at a 00:20:22.019 --> 00:20:24.440 massive data set 213 distinct heat waves that 00:20:24.440 --> 00:20:26.859 happened globally between 2000 and 2023. What 00:20:26.859 --> 00:20:29.359 they found, perhaps not entirely surprising given 00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:32.259 the broader trends, was that these heat waves 00:20:32.259 --> 00:20:34.900 got significantly more likely and more severe 00:20:34.900 --> 00:20:37.920 over that period, largely due to the cumulative 00:20:37.920 --> 00:20:40.549 effects of burning fossil fuels. Right. That 00:20:40.549 --> 00:20:42.589 makes sense, but the individual company part. 00:20:42.890 --> 00:20:45.890 That's the really granular detail that's compelling 00:20:45.890 --> 00:20:49.190 and new. The research used complex attribution 00:20:49.190 --> 00:20:51.990 models and statistical analyses, and it showed 00:20:51.990 --> 00:20:54.009 that between the first and second decade they 00:20:54.009 --> 00:20:56.710 looked at, weather change made these specific 00:20:56.710 --> 00:20:59.210 heat waves climb dramatically in likelihood. 00:21:00.009 --> 00:21:02.920 From being about 20 times more likely to an astonishing 00:21:02.920 --> 00:21:05.339 200 times more likely than they would have been 00:21:05.339 --> 00:21:08.180 without that pollution. 20 times to 200 times 00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:10.980 more likely. That's a huge jump. A massive jump. 00:21:11.099 --> 00:21:14.059 It demonstrates a quantifiable and rapidly escalating 00:21:14.059 --> 00:21:16.339 impact. And the specifics connecting to companies, 00:21:16.339 --> 00:21:18.539 that was even more striking. The research found 00:21:18.539 --> 00:21:20.880 that as many as a quarter of these extreme heat 00:21:20.880 --> 00:21:23.599 events would have been virtually impossible without 00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:26.460 the pollution from the 14 biggest carbon majors. 00:21:26.519 --> 00:21:29.019 That's the term, yes. The largest corporate and 00:21:29.019 --> 00:21:31.279 state -owned producers of fossil fuels and cement. 00:21:31.609 --> 00:21:35.089 Companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, even entire 00:21:35.089 --> 00:21:37.769 nations like the former Soviet Union. That's 00:21:37.769 --> 00:21:40.509 precisely what the research clearly shows. This 00:21:40.509 --> 00:21:43.990 new pioneering work provides these early but 00:21:43.990 --> 00:21:46.589 really powerful clues about the attributable 00:21:46.589 --> 00:21:49.869 impact of individual fossil fuel companies across 00:21:49.869 --> 00:21:52.769 their entire value chain from pulling resources 00:21:52.769 --> 00:21:55.490 out of the ground to processing shipping and 00:21:55.490 --> 00:21:57.690 the final burning of those fuels by consumers 00:21:57.690 --> 00:22:00.490 worldwide. It draws a direct line. It meticulously 00:22:00.490 --> 00:22:03.309 establishes a causal link between their activities 00:22:03.309 --> 00:22:06.289 and specific extreme weather events. And the 00:22:06.289 --> 00:22:08.869 study further determined that the same carbon 00:22:08.869 --> 00:22:11.549 major companies were collectively responsible 00:22:11.549 --> 00:22:13.849 for half of the observed increase in heat wave 00:22:13.849 --> 00:22:16.349 intensity since the pre -industrial era. Half 00:22:16.349 --> 00:22:19.190 the increase in intensity from just those entities. 00:22:19.390 --> 00:22:21.289 That's what the research indicates. It's a potent 00:22:21.289 --> 00:22:23.309 example of how scientific understanding keeps 00:22:23.309 --> 00:22:25.890 deepening. It allows us to connect the dots between 00:22:25.890 --> 00:22:28.950 specific industrial causes and their profound 00:22:28.950 --> 00:22:31.069 measurable effects within our global weather 00:22:31.069 --> 00:22:33.690 system. In ways we couldn't before. In ways that 00:22:33.690 --> 00:22:36.660 were previously unimaginable. Really? This kind 00:22:36.660 --> 00:22:39.400 of research opens up entirely new ways to understand 00:22:39.400 --> 00:22:42.500 how human activity and weather phenomena interact. 00:22:42.880 --> 00:22:45.180 But when the science is this complex and evolving 00:22:45.180 --> 00:22:47.660 and touches on such fundamental things about 00:22:47.660 --> 00:22:50.500 our world, it can sometimes become fertile ground 00:22:50.500 --> 00:22:52.740 for misinformation, can't it? Oh, absolutely. 00:22:53.000 --> 00:22:54.799 And we've definitely seen a lot more of that 00:22:54.799 --> 00:22:57.619 swirling around weather events lately. Makes 00:22:57.619 --> 00:23:00.200 it harder for people to know what's real. Unfortunately, 00:23:00.500 --> 00:23:04.059 yes, that complexity is often exploited. We've 00:23:04.059 --> 00:23:06.779 observed concerted efforts to misdirect public 00:23:06.779 --> 00:23:09.779 attention, to pull focus away from the scientifically 00:23:09.779 --> 00:23:12.500 established root causes of our current global 00:23:12.500 --> 00:23:14.279 weather challenges. Like what kind of things 00:23:14.279 --> 00:23:16.400 are we talking about? Well, for instance, after 00:23:16.400 --> 00:23:19.099 those deadly floods hit parts of Texas recently, 00:23:19.720 --> 00:23:22.059 unfounded rumors spread like wildfire about them 00:23:22.059 --> 00:23:24.799 being caused by sinister weather modification 00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:27.680 technology. Instead of, you know, extreme rainfall. 00:23:28.180 --> 00:23:31.160 Instead of natural meteorological processes potentially 00:23:31.160 --> 00:23:34.440 amplified by weather trends. Yeah. Similarly, 00:23:34.819 --> 00:23:36.619 there were baseless claims going around that 00:23:36.619 --> 00:23:39.180 California wildfires were somehow planned by 00:23:39.180 --> 00:23:41.740 officials to destroy child trafficking tunnels. 00:23:42.140 --> 00:23:46.220 Oh, wow. That's way out there. Truly outlandish 00:23:46.220 --> 00:23:49.519 conspiratorial narratives. Or that the devastation 00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:52.039 in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene wasn't 00:23:52.039 --> 00:23:54.380 the storm itself, but actually the result of 00:23:54.380 --> 00:23:57.440 a hushed up dam failure and secret cloud seeding 00:23:57.440 --> 00:23:59.900 operations. Just completely fabricated stories. 00:24:00.019 --> 00:24:01.839 Completely fabricated, yet despite their lack 00:24:01.839 --> 00:24:04.619 of any evidence, these kinds of narratives can 00:24:04.619 --> 00:24:07.299 unfortunately gain traction online and elsewhere. 00:24:07.420 --> 00:24:09.579 And these aren't just fringe ideas stuck in dark 00:24:09.579 --> 00:24:11.819 corners of the web anymore, are they? Sometimes 00:24:11.819 --> 00:24:14.220 they get amplified. spread through various channels, 00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:16.500 and actually reach a surprising number of people, 00:24:16.900 --> 00:24:19.160 affecting public perception and trust. They are 00:24:19.160 --> 00:24:21.859 amplified, yes. And that's exactly why it's so 00:24:21.859 --> 00:24:25.000 concerning. The spread of these narratives highlights 00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:28.259 the ongoing critical need for credible science 00:24:28.259 --> 00:24:30.420 -based information from trusted authorities. 00:24:31.180 --> 00:24:33.819 It really emphasizes why it's so imperative for 00:24:33.819 --> 00:24:36.740 you, our listeners, to actively seek out and 00:24:36.740 --> 00:24:39.900 rely on verifiable research and expert analysis. 00:24:39.960 --> 00:24:42.440 Where should people turn? Establish sources, 00:24:42.519 --> 00:24:45.279 like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:24:45.839 --> 00:24:48.460 or NOAA as it's often called, when trying to 00:24:48.460 --> 00:24:51.000 understand these complex weather events and what's 00:24:51.000 --> 00:24:53.859 truly driving them. go to the experts. Not just 00:24:53.859 --> 00:24:56.559 random social media posts. Definitely not. Without 00:24:56.559 --> 00:24:59.420 that commitment to factual accuracy, the public 00:24:59.420 --> 00:25:02.019 conversation can quickly become muddled, polarized, 00:25:02.380 --> 00:25:04.839 and frankly... counterproductive, which is the 00:25:04.839 --> 00:25:06.859 exact opposite of what we need during weather 00:25:06.859 --> 00:25:09.099 emergencies or when making informed decisions 00:25:09.099 --> 00:25:11.720 about our shared future. And that, I think, really 00:25:11.720 --> 00:25:14.200 underscores why programs like Meteorology Matters 00:25:14.200 --> 00:25:16.660 are so important, to try and provide that clear 00:25:16.660 --> 00:25:19.380 factual understanding and help you navigate through 00:25:19.380 --> 00:25:21.500 all the noise and complexity. Trying to cut through 00:25:21.500 --> 00:25:25.559 it, yeah. So as we move past that traditional 00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:27.539 statistical peak of the hurricane season, usually 00:25:27.539 --> 00:25:30.099 around September 10th. Right. and we head into 00:25:30.099 --> 00:25:32.660 the latter half of September and into early October, 00:25:33.220 --> 00:25:36.140 we really expect tropical activity to ramp up 00:25:36.140 --> 00:25:39.140 significantly. Yeah. That atmospheric suppression 00:25:39.140 --> 00:25:41.619 we talked about, the lid of wind shear and dry 00:25:41.619 --> 00:25:44.339 air, it's forecast to ease. The lid comes off. 00:25:44.440 --> 00:25:47.299 The lid comes off and all that record warm ocean 00:25:47.299 --> 00:25:49.539 water is just sitting there ready to fuel new 00:25:49.539 --> 00:25:53.369 systems. This shift isn't just speculation. It's 00:25:53.369 --> 00:25:55.910 based on consistent model guidance and also historical 00:25:55.910 --> 00:25:58.470 patterns for this particular time of year. Okay, 00:25:58.569 --> 00:26:00.589 so for you, our listener, especially if you live 00:26:00.589 --> 00:26:02.690 along the coast, maybe in the Caribbean, maybe 00:26:02.690 --> 00:26:05.109 anywhere along the U .S. coastline, what does 00:26:05.109 --> 00:26:07.789 that expected increase in tropical activity actually 00:26:07.789 --> 00:26:10.130 mean for your preparedness? What should people 00:26:10.130 --> 00:26:12.289 be thinking about or doing in the coming weeks 00:26:12.289 --> 00:26:15.099 and months? It means that this forecast for increased 00:26:15.099 --> 00:26:17.680 tropical activity will naturally elevate the 00:26:17.680 --> 00:26:20.420 risk for deroked impacts to the Caribbean islands, 00:26:20.779 --> 00:26:23.740 to U .S. coastlines. And history provides a very 00:26:23.740 --> 00:26:27.000 clear, very sobering lesson here. Over 50 percent, 00:26:27.140 --> 00:26:29.579 more than half, of the entire hurricane season's 00:26:29.579 --> 00:26:32.099 activity often occurs after that typical September 00:26:32.099 --> 00:26:34.839 10th peak. More than half happens after the peak. 00:26:34.920 --> 00:26:37.180 That's surprising. It is surprising to many, 00:26:37.240 --> 00:26:39.440 but it's a consistent pattern. This isn't just 00:26:39.440 --> 00:26:41.900 a statistical fluke. We've seen devastating hurricanes 00:26:41.900 --> 00:26:44.779 strike late in the season in recent years. Powerful, 00:26:44.859 --> 00:26:47.880 stark reminders. Just last year, late September, 00:26:48.579 --> 00:26:50.799 Hurricane Helene caused devastating impacts across 00:26:50.799 --> 00:26:53.440 a wide area of the southeast Florida, Georgia, 00:26:53.859 --> 00:26:57.000 western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee. Significant 00:26:57.000 --> 00:26:59.579 wind and flood damage. I remember Helene. That 00:26:59.579 --> 00:27:02.279 was rough. And the year before that, late September 00:27:02.279 --> 00:27:06.430 2022. Category 4 hurricane Ian delivered that 00:27:06.430 --> 00:27:08.670 catastrophic storm surge to southwest Florida, 00:27:09.029 --> 00:27:11.609 along with destructive winds, widespread flooding 00:27:11.609 --> 00:27:13.670 rain across the whole peninsula. Communities 00:27:13.670 --> 00:27:15.990 there are still recovering from Ian's devastation. 00:27:16.210 --> 00:27:18.990 Ian was just awful, the surge. Unbelievable. 00:27:19.630 --> 00:27:22.569 So these late season storms can be incredibly 00:27:22.569 --> 00:27:25.589 potent. And they often catch people off guard 00:27:25.589 --> 00:27:27.769 because maybe the earlier part of the season 00:27:27.769 --> 00:27:31.349 felt relatively quiet. Complacency sets in. Exactly. 00:27:31.549 --> 00:27:34.410 Complacency is dangerous, so it's absolutely 00:27:34.410 --> 00:27:38.430 crucial to remain diligent. Stay prepared, especially 00:27:38.430 --> 00:27:40.829 if you live in hurricane -prone areas. Review 00:27:40.829 --> 00:27:43.450 your emergency plans now. Have your supplies 00:27:43.450 --> 00:27:46.809 ready to go. Know your evacuation routes. And 00:27:46.809 --> 00:27:49.029 please, stay informed through official weather 00:27:49.029 --> 00:27:51.950 channels, like NOAA, your local emergency management 00:27:51.950 --> 00:27:54.109 trusted meteorologists. Don't let your guard 00:27:54.109 --> 00:27:56.150 down just because it's past the peak? Absolutely 00:27:56.150 --> 00:27:59.279 not. The season is far from over. Okay. Beyond 00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:01.039 the immediate concerns of the hurricane season, 00:28:01.220 --> 00:28:02.940 though, we're also starting to get a much clearer 00:28:02.940 --> 00:28:06.059 picture of what winter might hold, right? There's 00:28:06.059 --> 00:28:08.660 increasing talk, growing anticipation around 00:28:08.660 --> 00:28:11.180 the development of La Niña. That's another major 00:28:11.180 --> 00:28:13.099 global weather player, isn't it? That's absolutely 00:28:13.099 --> 00:28:14.900 right. Another big piece of the global puzzle. 00:28:15.339 --> 00:28:18.000 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:20.859 Weather Prediction Center, NOAA, they recently 00:28:20.859 --> 00:28:22.960 increased the odds of La Niña developing this 00:28:22.960 --> 00:28:25.480 fall. Quite significantly, actually. How much 00:28:25.480 --> 00:28:29.089 higher are the odds now? 71 % chance it will 00:28:29.089 --> 00:28:31.529 appear between October and December. That's up 00:28:31.529 --> 00:28:34.269 about 20 % just since last month's forecast. 00:28:35.150 --> 00:28:37.930 71%. That's pretty high confidence. It indicates 00:28:37.930 --> 00:28:40.589 a growing and pretty robust confidence among 00:28:40.589 --> 00:28:43.829 forecasters that this global pattern will emerge 00:28:43.829 --> 00:28:46.609 and likely influence our weather as we head towards 00:28:46.609 --> 00:28:49.450 winter. OK, so for folks who might not be familiar 00:28:49.450 --> 00:28:52.450 with the term, what exactly is La Nina? How does 00:28:52.450 --> 00:28:54.170 it fit into the bigger weather picture? What's 00:28:54.170 --> 00:28:56.869 going on there? So La Nina is one key part of 00:28:56.869 --> 00:29:00.019 this significant three -phase global weather 00:29:00.019 --> 00:29:03.519 cycle called the El Nino Southern Oscillation. 00:29:03.619 --> 00:29:06.720 You might hear it called ENSO for short. It's 00:29:06.720 --> 00:29:10.039 a totally natural phenomena and it's characterized 00:29:10.039 --> 00:29:12.339 by cooler than average surface water temperatures 00:29:12.339 --> 00:29:14.859 across the central and eastern tropical Pacific 00:29:14.859 --> 00:29:17.319 Ocean right along the equator out there. So the 00:29:17.319 --> 00:29:19.720 Pacific cools down near the equator. Exactly. 00:29:20.099 --> 00:29:22.740 A distinct band of cooler than average water 00:29:22.740 --> 00:29:25.660 forms. And this shift in ocean temperatures in 00:29:25.660 --> 00:29:28.759 the huge Pacific basin then has this profound 00:29:28.759 --> 00:29:32.279 ripple effect. It influences atmospheric circulation 00:29:32.279 --> 00:29:34.660 patterns, including those high altitude jet streams 00:29:34.660 --> 00:29:37.859 across the entire globe. So cool water in the 00:29:37.859 --> 00:29:40.480 Pacific changes the wind patterns way up high. 00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:43.519 Fundamentally, yes. Yeah. It reorganizes the 00:29:43.519 --> 00:29:45.619 major air masses in the storm tracks, especially 00:29:45.619 --> 00:29:48.460 across North America. It's a major driver of 00:29:48.460 --> 00:29:51.170 seasonal patterns. OK, so. How does that cooling 00:29:51.170 --> 00:29:54.029 in the tropical Pacific, this La Niña, typically 00:29:54.029 --> 00:29:56.450 affect our winter weather here in North America, 00:29:56.650 --> 00:29:59.369 maybe elsewhere too? What are the historical 00:29:59.369 --> 00:30:01.450 patterns? What kind of impacts might we anticipate 00:30:01.450 --> 00:30:04.190 from a La Niña winter? Historically, La Niña 00:30:04.190 --> 00:30:07.069 typically pushes the polar jet stream, that fast 00:30:07.069 --> 00:30:09.230 -flowing river of air high up that steers weather 00:30:09.230 --> 00:30:11.490 systems. Right, the jet stream. It pushes it 00:30:11.490 --> 00:30:13.289 significantly further north than usual during 00:30:13.289 --> 00:30:16.369 the winter months. And this shift, this displacement 00:30:16.369 --> 00:30:19.009 of the jet stream, fundamentally changes winter 00:30:19.009 --> 00:30:21.150 weather across the continent. How so? What does 00:30:21.150 --> 00:30:24.029 it mean for rain and snow and temperature? Generally, 00:30:24.309 --> 00:30:26.799 it can produce wetter and colder weather. than 00:30:26.799 --> 00:30:29.980 average in some areas. Particularly, it often 00:30:29.980 --> 00:30:32.480 leads to more snow and colder temperatures in 00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:34.980 places like the Pacific Northwest, up into British 00:30:34.980 --> 00:30:37.440 Columbia, and across the Northern Rockies. Good 00:30:37.440 --> 00:30:39.900 news for skiers in those areas, maybe. Often, 00:30:40.059 --> 00:30:42.640 yes. It can bring abundant snowfall to those 00:30:42.640 --> 00:30:45.359 regions. Conversely, though, La Niña is often 00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:48.920 associated with drier and sometimes warmer conditions 00:30:48.920 --> 00:30:52.180 further south. It can increase drought risk across 00:30:52.180 --> 00:30:54.920 the southern tier of the U .S. states like Nevada, 00:30:55.099 --> 00:30:57.740 New Mexico, Arizona, plus the southern half of 00:30:57.740 --> 00:31:00.960 California often see drier conditions. So wetter, 00:31:01.039 --> 00:31:03.779 colder, north, drier, warmer, south, generally 00:31:03.779 --> 00:31:06.539 speaking. That's the general tendency, yes. It's 00:31:06.539 --> 00:31:09.579 a significant influencer, especially for precipitation 00:31:09.579 --> 00:31:11.460 and temperature patterns across North America. 00:31:11.579 --> 00:31:14.700 So it's not like a universal cold and snowy forecast 00:31:14.700 --> 00:31:17.359 for everyone then. It's more like a redistribution 00:31:17.359 --> 00:31:19.740 of the weather, right? Some areas get wetter 00:31:19.740 --> 00:31:22.220 and colder, others drier, maybe milder. Exactly. 00:31:22.220 --> 00:31:24.400 It reshuffles the deck. And I assume the strength 00:31:24.400 --> 00:31:26.779 of the La Nina matters too, like how strong the 00:31:26.779 --> 00:31:28.920 cooling is in the Pacific. Does that change the 00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:30.980 impacts? Absolutely. That's an extremely important 00:31:30.980 --> 00:31:34.380 nuance. You're spot on. This global pattern is 00:31:34.380 --> 00:31:36.700 definitely modulated by the strength of the La 00:31:36.700 --> 00:31:40.380 Nina event. Generally speaking, The stronger 00:31:40.380 --> 00:31:43.460 a La Nina is, the more reliable and consistent 00:31:43.460 --> 00:31:45.460 its typical weather impacts tend to be around 00:31:45.460 --> 00:31:48.140 the world. OK. And what are they forecasting 00:31:48.140 --> 00:31:52.039 for this potential La Nina? Strong. Weak. Well, 00:31:52.200 --> 00:31:54.380 right now, forecasters are anticipating a weak 00:31:54.380 --> 00:31:57.599 La Nina to develop this fall. Weak. OK. So what 00:31:57.599 --> 00:31:59.839 does that mean for the forecast? Less certain. 00:32:00.009 --> 00:32:02.890 It means that while it certainly loads the meteorological 00:32:02.890 --> 00:32:05.150 dice in favor of those historical patterns we 00:32:05.150 --> 00:32:07.750 just discussed, it doesn't guarantee specific 00:32:07.750 --> 00:32:10.250 outcomes for every single location or every single 00:32:10.250 --> 00:32:13.670 day. Weather is always complex. There are numerous 00:32:13.670 --> 00:32:16.250 other regional and global factors at play each 00:32:16.250 --> 00:32:18.710 winter. Things like the Arctic Oscillation, other 00:32:18.710 --> 00:32:20.589 teleconnections that can mess with the jet stream 00:32:20.589 --> 00:32:23.950 patterns, too. So La Nina isn't the only thing 00:32:23.950 --> 00:32:26.410 driving winter weather. Never the sole determinant. 00:32:27.019 --> 00:32:29.640 But even a weak La Nina is a strong predictive 00:32:29.640 --> 00:32:31.779 tool, especially for those broad precipitation 00:32:31.779 --> 00:32:34.480 patterns. It gives us a valuable early outlook 00:32:34.480 --> 00:32:37.059 on what the coming winter might hold. A key piece 00:32:37.059 --> 00:32:39.339 of the puzzle, but not the whole picture. Exactly. 00:32:39.460 --> 00:32:42.359 A crucial piece of a very intricate global weather 00:32:42.359 --> 00:32:46.339 puzzle. Hashtag tag tag outro. Wow. OK, what 00:32:46.339 --> 00:32:49.319 a journey we've taken today through the current 00:32:49.319 --> 00:32:53.400 quiet in the Atlantic, but also the. The brewing 00:32:53.400 --> 00:32:56.019 potential for a very active rest of the hurricane 00:32:56.019 --> 00:32:58.059 season. Definitely something to watch. And then 00:32:58.059 --> 00:33:00.220 into the fascinating science shaping our weather. 00:33:00.460 --> 00:33:02.880 From that record warmth deep in the Gulf of Mexico 00:33:02.880 --> 00:33:05.279 hinting at a potentially volatile period ahead. 00:33:05.660 --> 00:33:08.000 That deep heat is key. To the vigorous debates 00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:09.839 within weather science that, you know, ultimately 00:33:09.839 --> 00:33:12.220 refine our understanding. And now looking ahead 00:33:12.220 --> 00:33:14.700 to the emerging La Niña forecast for winter. 00:33:15.390 --> 00:33:18.470 It's just so clear that meteorology matters deeply 00:33:18.470 --> 00:33:20.609 and profoundly in our daily lives. It really 00:33:20.609 --> 00:33:22.730 does. And understanding these intricate systems, 00:33:22.730 --> 00:33:25.450 it helps us not only appreciate the men's power 00:33:25.450 --> 00:33:28.349 and complexity of nature, but it also underscores 00:33:28.349 --> 00:33:31.569 the vital role of ongoing research. That science 00:33:31.569 --> 00:33:34.210 helps us navigate this ever -changing weather 00:33:34.210 --> 00:33:37.069 landscape. Absolutely. Stay curious, stay informed, 00:33:37.369 --> 00:33:39.509 and always, always stay prepared for whatever 00:33:39.509 --> 00:33:41.650 the atmosphere and oceans might bring our way. 00:33:41.990 --> 00:33:44.759 Great advice. And thank you for joining us on 00:33:44.759 --> 00:33:48.079 this exploration with Meteorology Matters. We 00:33:48.079 --> 00:33:49.779 really hope you've gained some valuable insights 00:33:49.779 --> 00:33:51.740 today. If you want to keep up with the latest 00:33:51.740 --> 00:33:54.279 weather developments and get more expert analysis, 00:33:54.759 --> 00:33:57.220 make sure to follow meteorologist Rob Jones. 00:33:57.400 --> 00:33:59.799 You can find him on Instagram at Meteorologist. 00:33:59.880 --> 00:34:02.880 That's M -E -T -E -O -R -O -L -G -I -S -T. Yep, 00:34:02.880 --> 00:34:05.880 that's me. On TikTok, he's at TVMeteorologist. 00:34:06.180 --> 00:34:08.480 And over on YouTube, you can find him and the 00:34:08.480 --> 00:34:10.820 Meteorology Matters podcast playlist just by 00:34:10.820 --> 00:34:13.610 searching for Rob Jones. Lots of updates there. 00:34:13.909 --> 00:34:16.369 If you enjoyed this dive into the world of weather, 00:34:16.849 --> 00:34:20.070 please do us a favor. Like, follow, comment, 00:34:20.250 --> 00:34:22.449 and rate Meteorology Matters wherever you get 00:34:22.449 --> 00:34:25.369 your podcasts. Your support truly helps us bring 00:34:25.369 --> 00:34:27.309 you more of these important conversations and 00:34:27.309 --> 00:34:29.690 keep exploring these critical topics. We appreciate 00:34:29.690 --> 00:34:32.429 it. So as we watch for those shifts in the tropical 00:34:32.429 --> 00:34:34.710 Atlantic and we look ahead to a potential La 00:34:34.710 --> 00:34:37.530 Nina winter, here's maybe a thought to mull over. 00:34:38.159 --> 00:34:41.079 How do we as individuals, as communities, as 00:34:41.079 --> 00:34:43.980 a whole global society, how do we best prepare 00:34:43.980 --> 00:34:46.900 for an evolving weather landscape when the very 00:34:46.900 --> 00:34:49.139 science that informs us is sometimes under such 00:34:49.139 --> 00:34:52.139 intense scrutiny or even actively challenged 00:34:52.139 --> 00:34:54.320 by misinformation? That's a big question. It 00:34:54.320 --> 00:34:56.420 is. It's a question that goes way beyond just 00:34:56.420 --> 00:34:58.539 forecast, doesn't it? It gets into the very fabric 00:34:58.539 --> 00:35:00.699 of our collective future. Something to think 00:35:00.699 --> 00:35:03.139 about. Until next time, stay safe and keep looking 00:35:03.139 --> 00:35:03.420 up.