WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.720 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. We're here today 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:06.200 to unpack some truly vital information, especially 00:00:06.200 --> 00:00:09.820 as we reflect on, well, a pivotal event that 00:00:09.820 --> 00:00:12.660 fundamentally reshaped our understanding of extreme 00:00:12.660 --> 00:00:14.900 weather. And our preparedness for it. Exactly. 00:00:15.019 --> 00:00:17.039 You know the date. You know the name. August 00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:21.739 29th, 2005. Hurricane Katrina. A name that still 00:00:21.739 --> 00:00:24.059 echoes, doesn't it? Especially along the Gulf 00:00:24.059 --> 00:00:27.329 Coast. Particularly in New Orleans, the Devastation 00:00:27.329 --> 00:00:29.929 Katrina unleashed was just staggering. It really 00:00:29.929 --> 00:00:32.570 was. Imagine wind gusts consistently hitting 00:00:32.570 --> 00:00:35.149 over 130 miles per hour. That's like a freight 00:00:35.149 --> 00:00:37.770 train. Yeah, just immense power. And then the 00:00:37.770 --> 00:00:40.759 storm surge. A wall of water, taller than a two 00:00:40.759 --> 00:00:43.179 -story building, sweeping inland. The images 00:00:43.179 --> 00:00:45.219 are still hard to forget. And the result was 00:00:45.219 --> 00:00:47.859 catastrophic. 80 % of New Orleans found itself 00:00:47.859 --> 00:00:51.320 submerged. And nearly 1 ,400 lives were tragically 00:00:51.320 --> 00:00:53.679 lost. It's a date just etched into our collective 00:00:53.679 --> 00:00:56.039 memory. A stark reminder, for sure. But here's 00:00:56.039 --> 00:00:58.219 where our focus lies today, where it gets really 00:00:58.219 --> 00:01:01.159 compelling. What have we actually learned in 00:01:01.159 --> 00:01:03.159 the two decades since? Right, how have we adapted? 00:01:03.500 --> 00:01:06.519 How have we innovated, improved our ability to 00:01:06.519 --> 00:01:09.239 predict hurricanes? and protect against them. 00:01:09.560 --> 00:01:11.260 That's the core question. That's our mission 00:01:11.260 --> 00:01:14.040 for this Meteorology Matters Exploration. We'll 00:01:14.040 --> 00:01:16.659 look at three major transformative shifts in 00:01:16.659 --> 00:01:19.500 hurricane forecasting. Then we'll turn our attention 00:01:19.500 --> 00:01:22.560 to the monumental engineering effort in New Orleans. 00:01:23.140 --> 00:01:25.959 We'll examine the resilience of its rebuilt flood 00:01:25.959 --> 00:01:29.079 defense system. Asking the big questions, are 00:01:29.079 --> 00:01:32.359 we truly safer? And what challenges still loom, 00:01:32.420 --> 00:01:34.379 especially, you know, with a changing climate? 00:01:34.760 --> 00:01:38.909 What's truly fascinating here and also heartbreaking, 00:01:39.730 --> 00:01:42.769 is that Katrina served as such a stark turning 00:01:42.769 --> 00:01:45.370 point, a tragic one, obviously. It wasn't just 00:01:45.370 --> 00:01:48.469 about the storm's raw power. It also, well, it 00:01:48.469 --> 00:01:51.370 ruthlessly exposed critical gaps. Gaps in what, 00:01:51.469 --> 00:01:53.170 exactly? And how we understood hurricanes, how 00:01:53.170 --> 00:01:55.390 we predicted them, and maybe most crucially, 00:01:55.450 --> 00:01:58.310 how we communicated the dangers. Ah, the communication 00:01:58.310 --> 00:02:01.090 piece. Absolutely. To grasp the human element. 00:02:01.280 --> 00:02:03.219 Think about Max Mayfield. He was the director 00:02:03.219 --> 00:02:04.739 of the National Hurricane Center back then. I 00:02:04.739 --> 00:02:07.519 remember him. He vividly recalled the conversation 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:10.539 with the New Orleans mayor right before landfall. 00:02:11.240 --> 00:02:14.180 After hanging up, he turned to a colleague, apparently 00:02:14.180 --> 00:02:16.939 with this deep sense of foreboding. He said, 00:02:17.120 --> 00:02:20.620 he doesn't get it. Just profound concern in his 00:02:20.620 --> 00:02:23.360 voice. That says so much, even with a good forecast. 00:02:23.680 --> 00:02:27.219 Exactly. And for its time, the forecast was unusually 00:02:27.219 --> 00:02:30.759 good. But that statement, he doesn't get it, 00:02:31.319 --> 00:02:33.560 underscores this huge communication challenge. 00:02:33.819 --> 00:02:35.919 A gap between the science and the understanding 00:02:35.919 --> 00:02:38.680 on the ground. Precisely. A fundamental chasm 00:02:38.680 --> 00:02:41.240 in risk perception, in translating foresight 00:02:41.240 --> 00:02:43.620 into urgent action. So the lessons go beyond 00:02:43.620 --> 00:02:46.319 just the storm itself. Oh, far beyond technology 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:48.419 and engineering. It's about the entire ecosystem 00:02:48.419 --> 00:02:51.159 of disaster preparedness. Meaning? From the initial 00:02:51.159 --> 00:02:54.020 forecast all the way through to community response. 00:02:54.240 --> 00:02:56.759 How people organize, protect themselves? The 00:02:56.759 --> 00:02:59.539 whole chain. The whole chain. So for you listening 00:02:59.539 --> 00:03:02.020 today, we'll dive into how forecasting capabilities 00:03:02.020 --> 00:03:04.719 have been transformed. Then we'll meticulously 00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:06.979 examine those new flood defenses in New Orleans. 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:09.659 And finally, we'll grapple with the evolving 00:03:09.659 --> 00:03:12.680 risks we still face, the persistent ones. Okay, 00:03:12.680 --> 00:03:14.759 with that sobering insight into the human side, 00:03:15.180 --> 00:03:18.580 let's turn to the tech. The incredible transformation 00:03:18.580 --> 00:03:21.400 in hurricane forecasting itself. Right? You might 00:03:21.400 --> 00:03:24.580 think, oh, it's just faster computers. But the 00:03:24.580 --> 00:03:27.020 investment, the sheer technological leap since 00:03:27.020 --> 00:03:30.680 Katrina, it's truly remarkable. It's far more 00:03:30.680 --> 00:03:32.840 than just a software update. Absolutely. A complete 00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:36.879 overhaul. So our first major shift. It revolves 00:03:36.879 --> 00:03:40.360 around substantial funding and staff increases. 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:44.120 Katrina really acted as a catalyst. An unprecedented 00:03:44.120 --> 00:03:46.719 boost, really. Recognizing the catastrophic toll, 00:03:47.000 --> 00:03:49.520 Congress established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement 00:03:49.520 --> 00:03:52.120 Program. Hey, Chef. as it's known. And this wasn't 00:03:52.120 --> 00:03:54.819 just adding a few extra desks. It was a systemic 00:03:54.819 --> 00:03:57.080 expansion at the Hurricane Center in Miami. Plus 00:03:57.080 --> 00:03:59.719 a massive infusion of investment into hurricane 00:03:59.719 --> 00:04:01.879 -specific computer modeling. Right. This wasn't 00:04:01.879 --> 00:04:04.979 a Band -Aid. It was a strategic long -term overhaul, 00:04:05.300 --> 00:04:08.439 an explicit acknowledgement of the value of accurate 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:12.039 forecasts. Both human and economic value. Exactly. 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:14.879 Both former director Max Mayfield and the current 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:17.519 director Michael Brennan, they've openly acknowledged 00:04:17.519 --> 00:04:20.399 it. Katrina's forecast was good for its era. 00:04:20.720 --> 00:04:23.500 But the tools were limited, severely limited. 00:04:23.779 --> 00:04:26.259 This sustained funding completely changed the 00:04:26.259 --> 00:04:29.399 game, gave meteorologists the cutting -edge resources 00:04:29.399 --> 00:04:32.360 they needed. It's a clear demonstration, isn't 00:04:32.360 --> 00:04:36.230 it? That targeted, significant investment. yields 00:04:36.230 --> 00:04:39.670 immense progress. Measurable progress in scientific 00:04:39.670 --> 00:04:42.550 prediction, directly enhancing our safety. That's 00:04:42.550 --> 00:04:44.350 absolutely right. The commitment post -Katrina 00:04:44.350 --> 00:04:46.970 wasn't just a reaction, it was absolutely necessary. 00:04:47.149 --> 00:04:49.949 It showed that even brilliant minds are constrained 00:04:49.949 --> 00:04:52.490 without the right tools. The computational power, 00:04:52.730 --> 00:04:55.730 sufficient staffing, all critical. HFE basically 00:04:55.730 --> 00:04:58.290 laid down a new foundation. Shifting from reactive 00:04:58.290 --> 00:05:01.050 to proactive. Exactly. Research -driven, continuously 00:05:01.050 --> 00:05:03.949 improving. It fostered innovation that was... 00:05:03.829 --> 00:05:06.470 frankly, missing before. So beyond the people 00:05:06.470 --> 00:05:08.689 and programs, what really shifted the paradigm 00:05:08.689 --> 00:05:10.889 was the tech itself, right? The unprecedented 00:05:10.889 --> 00:05:13.209 advancements. The eyes in the sky and the brains 00:05:13.209 --> 00:05:15.430 behind the predictions. Let's start with the 00:05:15.430 --> 00:05:18.870 satellites. The eyes. There's a fascinating, 00:05:19.089 --> 00:05:21.350 almost unbelievable detail from the Katrina era. 00:05:21.529 --> 00:05:24.589 Oh, yeah. Back in 2005, the satellites tracking 00:05:24.589 --> 00:05:27.189 Katrina. State -of -the -art, then, capturing 00:05:27.189 --> 00:05:29.490 images every five minutes. Pretty good for the 00:05:29.490 --> 00:05:32.250 time. But they had this critical flaw. Their 00:05:32.250 --> 00:05:35.410 solar -powered batteries ran low when they passed 00:05:35.410 --> 00:05:38.810 through Earth's shadow. Oh. Which meant the day 00:05:38.810 --> 00:05:41.790 before Katrina made landfall, precisely when 00:05:41.790 --> 00:05:44.490 it was rapidly intensifying over the gulf. Don't 00:05:44.490 --> 00:05:46.949 tell me. Those satellites went completely dark 00:05:46.949 --> 00:05:50.720 for two crucial hours. Two hours. Right when 00:05:50.720 --> 00:05:53.199 you need the data most. Imagine trying to track 00:05:53.199 --> 00:05:55.480 a speeding train but losing sight of it for a 00:05:55.480 --> 00:05:57.660 big chunk of time. That was the challenge. Unbelievable. 00:05:57.800 --> 00:06:00.839 So what's changed? Today, thanks to a new generation 00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:04.019 of satellites operational since about 2016, we 00:06:04.019 --> 00:06:06.720 get high definition images every single minute. 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:08.920 Every minute. That's incredible. And critically, 00:06:09.339 --> 00:06:12.500 no lengthy downtime in Earth's shadow. Continuous 00:06:12.500 --> 00:06:14.839 high resolution surveillance. That makes a world 00:06:14.839 --> 00:06:16.939 of difference. Missing those moments of rapid 00:06:16.939 --> 00:06:19.060 intensification. Could be the difference between 00:06:19.060 --> 00:06:21.399 life and death. We're far better equipped now. 00:06:21.740 --> 00:06:24.959 Indeed. That continuous monitoring at such fine 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:28.379 resolution, it's profoundly transformative. No 00:06:28.379 --> 00:06:30.839 more extrapolating from potentially old data. 00:06:31.100 --> 00:06:35.399 Exactly. Before, those blind spots forced educated 00:06:35.399 --> 00:06:38.500 guesses that could quickly diverge from reality 00:06:38.500 --> 00:06:41.819 during the most dangerous phases. But now. Now, 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:44.980 near real time, uninterrupted surveillance gives 00:06:44.980 --> 00:06:47.839 us an unprecedented understanding of the storm 00:06:47.839 --> 00:06:51.180 structure, wind fields. moisture. The whole picture. 00:06:51.519 --> 00:06:53.839 It's the foundation for much more accurate, timely 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:56.620 warnings, especially for rapid intensification, 00:06:56.980 --> 00:06:59.060 which, as we saw with Katrina, was a huge factor. 00:06:59.319 --> 00:07:01.360 And beyond the eyes in the sky, the forecast 00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:04.000 models themselves, the brains, have seen huge 00:07:04.000 --> 00:07:07.519 strides, too. Big time. In 2005, Katrina's track 00:07:07.519 --> 00:07:09.879 was tricky. First predicted towards Florida, 00:07:10.060 --> 00:07:12.279 then shifted west to Louisiana. And the models 00:07:12.279 --> 00:07:14.639 then were notoriously poor at predicting that 00:07:14.639 --> 00:07:17.060 rapid intensification the day before landfall. 00:07:17.180 --> 00:07:19.680 But today, today, the average errors in track 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:22.699 forecasting have dramatically decreased significantly 00:07:22.699 --> 00:07:25.180 better. And what about intensity? Specialized 00:07:25.180 --> 00:07:27.540 models now give a much better indication of whether 00:07:27.540 --> 00:07:30.329 a storm is likely to rapidly intensify. Much 00:07:30.329 --> 00:07:32.970 improved signals. But not perfect, right? Michael 00:07:32.970 --> 00:07:35.389 Brennan warned about that. Absolutely. Nature 00:07:35.389 --> 00:07:37.790 can still surprise us. Yeah. The urologists can 00:07:37.790 --> 00:07:39.670 still be caught off guard. You just have to look 00:07:39.670 --> 00:07:42.970 at Hurricane Otis in 2023. A truly harrowing 00:07:42.970 --> 00:07:46.449 example. Formed as a tropical storm October 24th, 00:07:46.509 --> 00:07:49.949 Eastern Pacific. Less than 24 hours later. Landfall 00:07:49.949 --> 00:07:52.470 near Acapulco is a monster category five. And 00:07:52.470 --> 00:07:54.930 the models. They completely failed to predict 00:07:54.930 --> 00:07:58.029 its terrifying speed and intensity. Over 50 lives 00:07:58.029 --> 00:08:01.290 lost. It just underscores even with vastly improved 00:08:01.290 --> 00:08:04.709 tech, that rapid intensification challenge remains 00:08:04.709 --> 00:08:06.730 formidable. It really does. And it highlights 00:08:06.730 --> 00:08:10.670 this broader, unsettling context. Climate change. 00:08:11.310 --> 00:08:13.329 Yes. Researchers find it might not cause more 00:08:13.329 --> 00:08:15.870 hurricanes overall, but it's likely causing some 00:08:15.870 --> 00:08:18.550 storms like Katrina to intensify more quickly, 00:08:18.829 --> 00:08:22.269 more violently, often just before landfall. Making 00:08:22.269 --> 00:08:25.689 accurate, rapid intensification prediction absolutely 00:08:25.689 --> 00:08:27.970 critical. Especially in our warmer world. That's 00:08:27.970 --> 00:08:31.470 a crucial point. Otis is a stark reminder. Our 00:08:31.470 --> 00:08:34.190 models are better, yes, but the environment is 00:08:34.190 --> 00:08:37.269 changing. Warmer oceans mean more fuel. Precisely. 00:08:37.470 --> 00:08:40.049 The oceans is the heat engine. Supercharge it 00:08:40.049 --> 00:08:42.789 and you provide incredible latent heat for these 00:08:42.789 --> 00:08:44.950 storms. So the challenge isn't just where it 00:08:44.950 --> 00:08:48.429 goes. But how fast it strengthens. Especially 00:08:48.429 --> 00:08:51.870 in that critical 24 to 48 hour window before 00:08:51.870 --> 00:08:55.230 landfall. It's a race then. Science versus increasingly 00:08:55.230 --> 00:08:58.289 dynamic storms. It really is an ongoing race. 00:08:58.909 --> 00:09:01.389 And that unpredictability, like with Otis, isn't 00:09:01.389 --> 00:09:04.070 just about wind speed. It connects directly to 00:09:04.070 --> 00:09:07.230 the deadliest part. Storm surge. The wall of 00:09:07.230 --> 00:09:09.379 water. So what does this mean for understanding 00:09:09.379 --> 00:09:10.960 and predicting that? Because it's not always 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:13.320 the wind causing the most fatalities. Our ability 00:09:13.320 --> 00:09:15.539 there has dramatically improved too. Storm surge 00:09:15.539 --> 00:09:18.000 was undeniably Katrina's deadliest component. 00:09:18.500 --> 00:09:21.059 That destructive wall of water breached the levees, 00:09:21.179 --> 00:09:23.460 inundated the city. And initially experts were 00:09:23.460 --> 00:09:25.460 baffled, right? Gauges washed away. Exactly. 00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:28.159 So scientists like Herman Fritz, an expert in 00:09:28.159 --> 00:09:30.740 coastal hazards, had to get creative, almost 00:09:30.740 --> 00:09:33.259 like detectives. What do they do? His first stop 00:09:33.259 --> 00:09:36.100 wasn't a lab, but the ravaged barrier islands 00:09:36.100 --> 00:09:39.120 in the Gulf. He observed natural markers. Leg 00:09:39.120 --> 00:09:41.700 wide. Bark stripped off trees by high water, 00:09:41.940 --> 00:09:44.480 meticulously measured sand scour lines, things 00:09:44.480 --> 00:09:47.639 like that. Wow. Using nature's own evidence. 00:09:48.039 --> 00:09:51.259 Combined with satellite data, modeling, they 00:09:51.259 --> 00:09:53.980 painstakingly estimated the surge height and 00:09:53.980 --> 00:09:56.779 wind power. And Fritz emphasized something crucial. 00:09:57.000 --> 00:10:00.299 He did. He said, most people don't die from wind. 00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:03.039 Even with 200 mile per hour winds, you're not 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:04.940 going to get thousands of fatalities. You're 00:10:04.940 --> 00:10:07.179 only going to get that with storm surge, flooding, 00:10:07.539 --> 00:10:10.519 and inundation. That insight really reframed 00:10:10.519 --> 00:10:12.639 the danger, didn't it? Absolutely. Fast forward 00:10:12.639 --> 00:10:15.000 to today. The advancements are truly life saving. 00:10:15.460 --> 00:10:17.899 Current forecast models are vastly superior. 00:10:18.490 --> 00:10:20.710 They don't just predict the surge height. They 00:10:20.710 --> 00:10:22.990 provide sophisticated maps showing potential 00:10:22.990 --> 00:10:26.049 inundation depths in specific low -lying areas. 00:10:26.250 --> 00:10:28.830 That granular detail is invaluable. It helps 00:10:28.830 --> 00:10:31.149 officials decide precisely which neighborhoods 00:10:31.149 --> 00:10:34.350 need evacuation. More targeted, more effective, 00:10:34.490 --> 00:10:37.009 life -saving measures. And the impact is clear. 00:10:37.769 --> 00:10:40.789 Historically, storm surge caused about half of 00:10:40.789 --> 00:10:44.350 hurricane fatalities. But since 2013, that number's 00:10:44.350 --> 00:10:48.019 down dramatically. To about 11%, according to 00:10:48.019 --> 00:10:50.220 research by Michael Brennan and others. That's 00:10:50.220 --> 00:10:53.480 a powerful demonstration. Science and tech directly 00:10:53.480 --> 00:10:56.279 saving lives. Preventing countless tragedies. 00:10:56.539 --> 00:10:59.059 A tangible success story for communities like 00:10:59.059 --> 00:11:01.840 yours. That reduction is profound. It's about 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:04.559 the forecasting accuracy and communicating the 00:11:04.559 --> 00:11:07.379 risk effectively. Visualizing the impact. Exactly. 00:11:07.700 --> 00:11:10.259 Translating complex data into actionable info 00:11:10.259 --> 00:11:13.279 for emergency managers and, crucially, for you, 00:11:13.559 --> 00:11:16.039 the public. The hard lessons from Katrina applied 00:11:16.039 --> 00:11:18.259 directly. A fundamental shift in approaching 00:11:18.259 --> 00:11:20.919 the most lethal aspect of hurricanes. Building 00:11:20.919 --> 00:11:22.740 on that, imagine getting a whole week's heads 00:11:22.740 --> 00:11:25.360 up on a potential storm. That's not just an improvement. 00:11:25.759 --> 00:11:28.080 It's a game changer for preparation. Forecasters 00:11:28.080 --> 00:11:30.879 now have much longer lead times. Earlier, more 00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:33.480 detailed warnings. Let's contrast that with 2005. 00:11:33.720 --> 00:11:36.279 Back then, an official written forecast for possible 00:11:36.279 --> 00:11:38.559 formation. Issued only up to two days ahead. 00:11:38.799 --> 00:11:41.299 And visualizing weak storm clusters was limited. 00:11:41.539 --> 00:11:44.879 Now. The National Hurricane Center can forecast 00:11:44.879 --> 00:11:48.200 possible formation up to seven days in advance. 00:11:48.220 --> 00:11:51.600 Seven days? Issuing watches, warnings, potential 00:11:51.600 --> 00:11:54.700 paths much, much sooner. That extended lead time 00:11:54.700 --> 00:11:58.200 is invaluable for large -scale evacuations. Time 00:11:58.200 --> 00:12:01.889 to secure homes, gather supplies. relocate safely. 00:12:02.110 --> 00:12:05.409 And for emergency managers, crucial days to pre 00:12:05.409 --> 00:12:08.289 -position resources, activate shelters, coordinate 00:12:08.289 --> 00:12:10.210 logistics. But there's still that challenge, 00:12:10.429 --> 00:12:12.610 right? Being too certain too early. Absolutely. 00:12:13.049 --> 00:12:15.490 Initial Katrina forecasts predicted that sharper 00:12:15.490 --> 00:12:18.370 turn towards Florida before shifting west. And 00:12:18.370 --> 00:12:21.679 Hurricane Ian in 2022. A stark reminder, shifted 00:12:21.679 --> 00:12:24.240 south at the last minute, hitting southwest Florida 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:26.240 on the edge of the forecast zone, caught some 00:12:26.240 --> 00:12:29.240 off guard. Tragically so. So while we have earlier 00:12:29.240 --> 00:12:31.419 warnings, that balance between early heads up 00:12:31.419 --> 00:12:33.759 and pinpoint accuracy, especially for landfall 00:12:33.759 --> 00:12:36.100 location, it's a persistent challenge. But the 00:12:36.100 --> 00:12:38.679 increase in lead time itself provides an indispensable 00:12:38.679 --> 00:12:41.519 window. For communities to prepare and take life 00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:44.159 saving action. This balance is delicate. Yeah. 00:12:44.279 --> 00:12:46.580 Because the further out you forecast, the wider 00:12:46.580 --> 00:12:50.539 that cone of uncertainty naturally gets. But 00:12:50.539 --> 00:12:54.019 having that initial seven -day outlook, it transforms 00:12:54.019 --> 00:12:57.000 the strategic advantage. Also... Allows preliminary 00:12:57.000 --> 00:12:59.559 preparations, activation of plans. Critically, 00:12:59.740 --> 00:13:01.820 it informs the public that something significant 00:13:01.820 --> 00:13:04.419 might be developing. Shifting the focus. From 00:13:04.419 --> 00:13:08.080 reacting to an existing storm, to actively monitoring 00:13:08.080 --> 00:13:10.039 and preparing for conditions that might lead 00:13:10.039 --> 00:13:13.080 to one. Empowering communities with foresight. 00:13:13.240 --> 00:13:15.720 Even if the details are still evolving. Exactly. 00:13:15.940 --> 00:13:19.320 A proactive approach. Monumental improvement 00:13:19.320 --> 00:13:22.220 over the past. Which brings us to that crucial 00:13:22.220 --> 00:13:25.340 question. What has New Orleans done with these 00:13:25.340 --> 00:13:28.480 improved forecasts? With this new era of preparedness. 00:13:28.940 --> 00:13:31.019 Right, the city at the epicenter of Katrina's 00:13:31.019 --> 00:13:33.399 devastation. The flood defenses there underwent 00:13:33.399 --> 00:13:36.759 a truly monumental transformation. A direct response 00:13:36.759 --> 00:13:39.460 to those catastrophic failures. We're talking 00:13:39.460 --> 00:13:41.500 about the post -Katrina investment in the hurricane 00:13:41.500 --> 00:13:45.860 and storm damage risk reduction system. A massive 00:13:45.860 --> 00:13:48.340 multi -billion dollar project. Congress approved 00:13:48.340 --> 00:13:51.779 a staggering $14 .6 billion upgrade. Adjusted 00:13:51.779 --> 00:13:54.259 for inflation in scope, that's around $23 billion 00:13:54.259 --> 00:13:57.600 today. Wow. Not just repairs, though. It's not 00:13:57.600 --> 00:14:01.460 at all. Construction of a comprehensive 139 -mile 00:14:01.460 --> 00:14:04.700 integrated system. Levees, robust flood walls, 00:14:05.179 --> 00:14:07.899 enormous floodgates. And the design goal? Protect 00:14:07.899 --> 00:14:10.419 against a one -in -a -hundred -year storm surge. 00:14:10.740 --> 00:14:13.899 That's roughly 15 feet of water. What a strong 00:14:13.899 --> 00:14:16.240 Category 3 hurricane might bring. It's one of 00:14:16.240 --> 00:14:18.600 the largest civil engineering projects in U .S. 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:21.139 history, isn't it? It really is. An incredible 00:14:21.139 --> 00:14:24.399 feat of ingenuity and resolve to fortify a major 00:14:24.399 --> 00:14:27.179 American city. An incredible investment. But 00:14:27.179 --> 00:14:30.220 the key question, how well has this multi -billion 00:14:30.220 --> 00:14:32.580 dollar system actually performed under tests? 00:14:32.720 --> 00:14:35.019 Right. Building it is one thing. Seeing it hold 00:14:35.019 --> 00:14:37.179 up under real hurricane pressure is another. 00:14:37.480 --> 00:14:39.799 Has it delivered? The first significant trial 00:14:39.799 --> 00:14:42.500 came in 2012. Hurricane Isaac. Isaac, right. 00:14:42.779 --> 00:14:45.059 Category one, but large and slow -moving. Which 00:14:45.059 --> 00:14:47.059 meant it brought a substantial 10 -foot storm 00:14:47.059 --> 00:14:49.419 surge, more like a category two surge in impact. 00:14:49.580 --> 00:14:53.059 And the HSDRS. Performed admirably. Held firm. 00:14:53.360 --> 00:14:55.200 It demonstrated its ability to withstand that 00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:57.820 level of surge. So a boost of confidence. Proof 00:14:57.820 --> 00:15:00.019 it could handle the designed 15 -foot surge from 00:15:00.019 --> 00:15:02.720 a Cat 3. Exactly. A crucial first reassurance. 00:15:03.039 --> 00:15:06.580 Then came Hurricane Ida in 2021. A much bigger 00:15:06.580 --> 00:15:09.659 challenge. And tragically, on the 16th anniversary 00:15:09.659 --> 00:15:12.139 of Katrina's landfall. IDA hit as a powerful 00:15:12.139 --> 00:15:15.399 category four, 150 mobile hour winds. Bringing 00:15:15.399 --> 00:15:18.720 a devastating surge of nine to 14 feet to Placemines 00:15:18.720 --> 00:15:20.659 Parish, south of New Orleans. And there was a 00:15:20.659 --> 00:15:23.299 breach there, right? Yes, a levee in Braithwaite. 00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:26.139 Yeah. Importantly, it was not part of the upgraded 00:15:26.139 --> 00:15:30.039 federally funded HSTRRS. That older levee was 00:15:30.039 --> 00:15:32.980 overtopped and breached. Huge damage. But the 00:15:32.980 --> 00:15:37.139 HSTRRS itself. The main system? It held. Water 00:15:37.139 --> 00:15:39.679 levels of 6 to 9 feet were common along parts 00:15:39.679 --> 00:15:41.500 of the New Orleans system, reached just a few 00:15:41.500 --> 00:15:43.759 feet below the top of the West Bank levee. So, 00:15:43.759 --> 00:15:45.899 critically, no portions of the upgraded system 00:15:45.899 --> 00:15:48.379 were overtopped? Correct. No overtopping of the 00:15:48.379 --> 00:15:50.700 HSTRS. Okay, that sounds like a success. A major 00:15:50.700 --> 00:15:53.059 success under a cat four. And in many ways it 00:15:53.059 --> 00:15:55.600 was. But here's the critical what -if that keeps 00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:58.059 experts up at night. Uh -oh. What's the what 00:15:58.059 --> 00:16:01.139 -if? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 00:16:01.139 --> 00:16:04.080 National Hurricane Center reported later if Ida 00:16:04.080 --> 00:16:06.759 had made landfall just 17 miles further east. 00:16:06.820 --> 00:16:10.340 Closer to New Orleans. Yes. Storm surge heights 00:16:10.340 --> 00:16:13.460 against the southern edge of that West Bank HSDRS 00:16:13.460 --> 00:16:16.039 levee would have been five to seven feet higher. 00:16:16.259 --> 00:16:19.440 We should move. Undeniably overtopping and potentially 00:16:19.440 --> 00:16:22.340 a catastrophic breach. And that section protects. 00:16:23.110 --> 00:16:27.350 246 ,000 people. $41 billion in assets. A massive 00:16:27.350 --> 00:16:29.809 area. So the system worked, but the margin was 00:16:29.809 --> 00:16:33.230 razor thin. Extremely thin. It underscores how 00:16:33.230 --> 00:16:35.710 even the best engineering has limits when nature 00:16:35.710 --> 00:16:38.509 pushes that hard. A slight track change could 00:16:38.509 --> 00:16:41.480 have been catastrophic. That what -if scenario 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:44.080 for Ida is truly sobering. It really highlights 00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:46.419 why distinguishing between overtopping and breach 00:16:46.419 --> 00:16:49.039 is so important. Two very different things with 00:16:49.039 --> 00:16:51.480 different consequences. Vastly different. Understanding 00:16:51.480 --> 00:16:53.720 that difference is critical for assessing and 00:16:53.720 --> 00:16:55.419 communicating risk. Okay, let's break it down. 00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:58.139 Overtopping is? During overtopping, waves or 00:16:58.139 --> 00:17:00.480 the surge just wash over the top. The levee structure 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:03.299 stays intact. Like a bathtub overflowing. Exactly. 00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:05.920 It causes relatively slow inundation behind it, 00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:08.079 water flowing over. And the breach. That's a 00:17:08.079 --> 00:17:10.420 catastrophic structure. failure, the levee fails 00:17:10.420 --> 00:17:12.700 at its base, or a section collapses. Reading 00:17:12.700 --> 00:17:16.740 a gap. A gaping hole where floodwaters pour through 00:17:16.740 --> 00:17:21.079 unabated rapidly. Far, far more serious. Much 00:17:21.079 --> 00:17:22.960 higher potential for loss of life. Because the 00:17:22.960 --> 00:17:25.099 flooding is so swift and forceful. Precisely. 00:17:25.279 --> 00:17:27.339 Often with little warning. And you said overtopping 00:17:27.339 --> 00:17:30.460 often leads to a breach. Yes. That's the dangerous 00:17:30.460 --> 00:17:33.059 connection. As water cascades over and down the 00:17:33.059 --> 00:17:35.700 back slope, it erodes the base. Dowering it away. 00:17:35.819 --> 00:17:38.380 Right. compromising structural integrity until 00:17:38.380 --> 00:17:42.440 it collapses. Look at Katrina. 50 major breaches. 00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:45.119 Almost all were caused by overtopping combined 00:17:45.119 --> 00:17:47.400 with this erosion. Wow, and the difference in 00:17:47.400 --> 00:17:51.299 potential impact. A 2011 Army Corps study, before 00:17:51.299 --> 00:17:54.779 the final upgrades, predicted maybe 974 deaths 00:17:54.779 --> 00:17:57.319 from overtopping in a major storm. Okay. But 00:17:57.319 --> 00:17:59.779 if those levees breached... The estimate jumped 00:17:59.779 --> 00:18:03.920 to 2 ,945 deaths. That's a huge difference. Highlights 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:05.960 why preventing the breach itself is paramount. 00:18:06.160 --> 00:18:08.359 Absolutely critical for safety. So if overtopping 00:18:08.359 --> 00:18:11.519 leads to breaching via erosion, what have engineers 00:18:11.519 --> 00:18:13.839 done about that specific failure point? That 00:18:13.839 --> 00:18:16.279 led to the armoring project. A key investment. 00:18:16.420 --> 00:18:19.380 Tell me about that. The Army Corps spent $145 00:18:19.380 --> 00:18:23.799 million completed in 2021 specifically to armor 00:18:23.799 --> 00:18:27.420 those earthen levees against erosion during overtopping. 00:18:27.579 --> 00:18:30.759 And they tested this. Rigorously. Partnered with 00:18:30.759 --> 00:18:32.839 Colorado State University to build a full -scale 00:18:32.839 --> 00:18:36.099 wave overtopping simulator. A massive facility. 00:18:36.240 --> 00:18:38.599 Testing materials against simulated hurricane 00:18:38.599 --> 00:18:41.440 waves. Exactly. and Louisiana State University 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:43.759 AgCenter tested different grasses for resilience 00:18:43.759 --> 00:18:46.359 even against things like mowing. So what was 00:18:46.359 --> 00:18:48.880 the solution they installed? Engineered turf 00:18:48.880 --> 00:18:51.819 reinforcement mats integrated with specific grasses 00:18:51.819 --> 00:18:54.900 installed along the inside the landward slopes 00:18:54.900 --> 00:18:58.299 of key levee stretches. And the claim is? The 00:18:58.299 --> 00:19:00.619 Corps states this armoring should greatly reduce 00:19:00.619 --> 00:19:03.380 or eliminate breaches during overtopping. Meaning 00:19:03.380 --> 00:19:05.980 less severe flooding. Their prediction, inundation 00:19:05.980 --> 00:19:08.660 depths of only about five feet in an overtopping 00:19:08.660 --> 00:19:11.759 scenario. compared to 1520 feet in Katrina's 00:19:11.759 --> 00:19:14.099 lowest areas from breaches. A dramatic improvement, 00:19:14.400 --> 00:19:16.839 but there's a catch. The critical caveat for 00:19:16.839 --> 00:19:19.960 you the listener. This armor, while well tested 00:19:19.960 --> 00:19:22.700 in sims, hasn't faced a real -world overtopping 00:19:22.700 --> 00:19:24.980 by a major hurricane yet. So it's engineered 00:19:24.980 --> 00:19:27.119 based on science, but awaiting its first true 00:19:27.119 --> 00:19:30.079 test. Precisely. Represents a huge investment, 00:19:30.539 --> 00:19:32.980 solid engineering, but the ultimate real -world 00:19:32.980 --> 00:19:36.000 performance is still unknown. Which brings us 00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:39.009 to another profound question. The system's built 00:19:39.009 --> 00:19:42.329 for a Cat 3 surge. What happens when something 00:19:42.329 --> 00:19:45.009 stronger hits? Because experts say it's only 00:19:45.009 --> 00:19:49.190 a matter of time. It's not if, but when a hurricane 00:19:49.190 --> 00:19:51.750 capable of overtopping these levees hits New 00:19:51.750 --> 00:19:54.269 Orleans. Is there historical precedent for that 00:19:54.269 --> 00:19:56.890 kind of storm hitting the area? There is. Since 00:19:56.890 --> 00:20:01.200 1851, Louisiana's seen 65 hurricanes. But only 00:20:01.200 --> 00:20:03.299 one brought a surge likely to overwhelm the current 00:20:03.299 --> 00:20:05.279 system, assuming it works as designed. Which 00:20:05.279 --> 00:20:08.299 one is that? The 1893 Cheniere -Kamanata hurricane. 00:20:08.640 --> 00:20:11.819 A powerful category four. 130 mile per hour winds, 00:20:12.099 --> 00:20:14.680 estimated 16 foot surge. 16 feet? That's above 00:20:14.680 --> 00:20:17.259 the 15 foot design limit. Exactly. It obliterated 00:20:17.259 --> 00:20:19.339 the town of Cheniere -Kamanata, killed over half 00:20:19.339 --> 00:20:22.400 its residents, 1 ,700 to 2 ,000 fatalities overall. 00:20:22.730 --> 00:20:24.869 third deadliest in U .S. history. Horrifying. 00:20:25.089 --> 00:20:27.789 Any others? An 1812 hurricane, possibly a cat 00:20:27.789 --> 00:20:30.170 four, according to researcher Carrie Mock, might 00:20:30.170 --> 00:20:32.250 also have been strong enough. It highlights this 00:20:32.250 --> 00:20:34.529 long -standing threat. So even with the incredible 00:20:34.529 --> 00:20:37.960 engineering... Expert concerns remain high. Very 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:41.619 high. Bob Jacobson, a senior consulting hydrologist, 00:20:41.819 --> 00:20:43.799 points out a critical distinction. What's that? 00:20:43.900 --> 00:20:46.140 The system was primarily designed to reduce flood 00:20:46.140 --> 00:20:50.019 insurance costs, meet federal mandates. Not necessarily 00:20:50.019 --> 00:20:52.400 for a rigorous safety certification against every 00:20:52.400 --> 00:20:54.839 extreme event. An important nuance. He believes 00:20:54.839 --> 00:20:57.660 some parts could still breach with surges exceeding 00:20:57.660 --> 00:21:00.250 that one in a hundred year level. especially 00:21:00.250 --> 00:21:03.349 along Lake Pontchartrain. Why there? Less freeboard. 00:21:03.829 --> 00:21:06.009 That's the safety margin between expected water 00:21:06.009 --> 00:21:08.829 level and the levee top. Less room for error. 00:21:09.190 --> 00:21:11.609 And he mentioned unpredictable factors too. Yes, 00:21:11.789 --> 00:21:14.490 he notes that in the chaos, unexpected bad things 00:21:14.490 --> 00:21:17.380 can happen. Like a barge breaking loose, slamming 00:21:17.380 --> 00:21:19.839 into a flood wall, causing a breach. So it's 00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:22.339 not just the design limits, it's the real world 00:21:22.339 --> 00:21:25.279 chaos of a major storm. Exactly. Forces that 00:21:25.279 --> 00:21:27.779 can test any engineering to its absolute limit. 00:21:27.960 --> 00:21:30.440 That really emphasizes the unpredictable nature. 00:21:30.579 --> 00:21:32.460 So what does this mean for the future? Because 00:21:32.460 --> 00:21:35.319 the environment isn't static, is it? Not at all. 00:21:35.480 --> 00:21:37.799 Climate change is adding profound new layers 00:21:37.799 --> 00:21:40.700 of complexity. Altering the calculus of risks. 00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:44.160 Unequivocally. It's increasing the risk to New 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:46.769 Orleans levies. in two major ways. Okay, what's 00:21:46.769 --> 00:21:49.529 the first? Rising sea levels. Steadily rising. 00:21:49.970 --> 00:21:52.349 Predicted rise at Grand Isle, the closest tide 00:21:52.349 --> 00:21:55.710 gauge, is over two feet by 2050 compared to 2000 00:21:55.710 --> 00:21:58.269 levels. Two feet is significant. And here's a 00:21:58.269 --> 00:22:01.069 crucial detail. More than half of that relative 00:22:01.069 --> 00:22:04.930 rise is actually from the land sinking. Subsidence. 00:22:05.329 --> 00:22:08.509 Why is the land sinking? Largely human causes. 00:22:08.970 --> 00:22:11.849 Extracting groundwater, oil, compacts the soil. 00:22:12.349 --> 00:22:15.130 And the river levees themselves. while essential 00:22:15.130 --> 00:22:18.170 for protection, stop the natural sediment deposition 00:22:18.170 --> 00:22:20.490 that used to build the Delta land. So controlling 00:22:20.490 --> 00:22:23.150 the river inadvertently contributes to the sinking? 00:22:23.410 --> 00:22:26.539 In some ways, yes. We've altered natural processes. 00:22:26.720 --> 00:22:28.960 And the implication of rising sea levels. Maintaining 00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:30.819 that one -in -one of your protection requires 00:22:30.819 --> 00:22:34.279 regularly raising the levees. A monumental, ongoing 00:22:34.279 --> 00:22:37.039 task. Especially with debates over funding for 00:22:37.039 --> 00:22:39.400 climate risk reduction. It's a constant uphill 00:22:39.400 --> 00:22:41.480 battle against a rising tide, quite literally. 00:22:41.579 --> 00:22:43.079 OK, that's the first way. What's the second? 00:22:43.480 --> 00:22:46.420 Stronger hurricanes. A clear trend. Think of 00:22:46.420 --> 00:22:49.369 them as heat engines. And a hotter ocean provides 00:22:49.369 --> 00:22:52.549 more fuel. Exactly. Allowing them to grow more 00:22:52.549 --> 00:22:55.329 powerful, intensify more rapidly, assuming other 00:22:55.329 --> 00:22:57.849 conditions are right. Like low wind shear, moist 00:22:57.849 --> 00:23:00.710 atmosphere. Right. Climate theory and modeling 00:23:00.710 --> 00:23:03.549 consistently show a projected increase in the 00:23:03.549 --> 00:23:06.450 proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. And 00:23:06.450 --> 00:23:09.430 more storms that rapidly intensify just before 00:23:09.430 --> 00:23:12.410 landfall. Which is a huge shift. It amplifies 00:23:12.410 --> 00:23:14.690 the risk to a system designed for a Category 00:23:14.690 --> 00:23:17.950 3 storm. Creating a dangerous mismatch. Defense 00:23:17.950 --> 00:23:20.970 capacity versus intensifying threats. Precisely. 00:23:21.289 --> 00:23:23.609 We're meticulously building for one scenario, 00:23:23.930 --> 00:23:25.930 while the changing climate prepares for another, 00:23:25.950 --> 00:23:28.589 more extreme one. What's fascinating here, though, 00:23:28.589 --> 00:23:30.809 and a powerful argument for sustained investment, 00:23:31.210 --> 00:23:33.569 is the clear, quantifiable value of investing 00:23:33.569 --> 00:23:36.569 in meteorology. Despite the fragility of commitment 00:23:36.569 --> 00:23:39.029 waivers. Right. The investments post -Katrina 00:23:39.029 --> 00:23:41.710 yielded immense returns. A compelling example 00:23:41.710 --> 00:23:43.750 of science funding providing tangible benefits. 00:23:43.890 --> 00:23:46.029 How significant were those returns? Consider 00:23:46.029 --> 00:23:48.970 this. The National Science Board, back in 2006, 00:23:49.509 --> 00:23:52.890 recommended a $300 million annual increase in 00:23:52.890 --> 00:23:55.670 hurricane research funding, a massive jump from 00:23:55.670 --> 00:23:57.710 the $20 million at the time. And the Hurricane 00:23:57.710 --> 00:24:00.670 Forecast Improvement Program, HFE, born from 00:24:00.670 --> 00:24:03.630 that. Directly led to over 50 % improvement in 00:24:03.630 --> 00:24:06.750 track forecasts, over 30 % intensity forecast 00:24:06.750 --> 00:24:10.289 since 2005, across all lead times. That's huge 00:24:10.289 --> 00:24:13.599 progress. And the economic impact. A 2024 study 00:24:13.599 --> 00:24:15.920 found these advancements reduced average costs 00:24:15.920 --> 00:24:18.960 by an astonishing five billion dollars per major 00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:22.119 landfalling hurricane between 2005 and 2020. 00:24:22.460 --> 00:24:25.619 Five billion per storm. How? Two ways. Either 00:24:25.619 --> 00:24:28.140 decreasing deaths and damages via better evacuations 00:24:28.140 --> 00:24:30.940 and prep. Or. Or increasing confidence in decisions 00:24:30.940 --> 00:24:33.140 not to spend money on adaptation if a storm shifts 00:24:33.140 --> 00:24:35.559 away. avoiding unnecessary costs. So for you 00:24:35.559 --> 00:24:38.279 listening, this is a clear case. Scientific investment 00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:40.960 directly saves money and lives. A highly effective 00:24:40.960 --> 00:24:43.180 form of risk reduction, not just a cost. Those 00:24:43.180 --> 00:24:45.079 numbers are striking. So where does forecasting 00:24:45.079 --> 00:24:47.680 go next? We've seen incredible progress, but 00:24:47.680 --> 00:24:50.559 are there new hurdles, new challenges? Unfortunately, 00:24:50.720 --> 00:24:54.000 yes. There are real concerns about recent budget 00:24:54.000 --> 00:24:57.579 shifts threatening future progress. How so? Sources 00:24:57.579 --> 00:24:59.839 indicate significant budget changes affected 00:24:59.839 --> 00:25:02.400 agencies involved in natural disasters during 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:05.960 a recent administration. FEMA the National Weather 00:25:05.960 --> 00:25:08.700 Service, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:25:08.700 --> 00:25:11.259 Administration. Impacting their ability to continue 00:25:11.259 --> 00:25:14.619 improvements. James Franklin, a retired meteorologist, 00:25:14.920 --> 00:25:17.279 called the post -Katrina investment the greatest 00:25:17.279 --> 00:25:21.559 success for forecast accuracy. But he and others 00:25:21.559 --> 00:25:24.849 fear future progress might be stymied. making 00:25:24.849 --> 00:25:26.930 the next generation of improvements less likely 00:25:26.930 --> 00:25:29.789 to happen. It highlights that critical ongoing 00:25:29.789 --> 00:25:32.069 debate about sustained investment in these vital 00:25:32.069 --> 00:25:34.710 areas, especially facing escalating climate threats. 00:25:34.950 --> 00:25:37.150 Are there specific areas where improvement is 00:25:37.150 --> 00:25:39.490 still needed? Michael Brennan hopes to see inland 00:25:39.490 --> 00:25:42.390 flooding forecasts improve next. Inland flooding? 00:25:42.869 --> 00:25:45.579 Like from Hurricane Helene? Exactly. He mentioned 00:25:45.579 --> 00:25:48.180 the National Hurricane Center issued an unprecedented 00:25:48.180 --> 00:25:50.660 release about extreme flooding risk in the Appalachians 00:25:50.660 --> 00:25:53.079 for Helene, really trying to ring the alarm bell. 00:25:53.339 --> 00:25:55.880 But it still caught people off guard. The eventual 00:25:55.880 --> 00:25:59.299 extent inland did, yes. As Brennan notes, we 00:25:59.299 --> 00:26:01.680 learn something from every event, applying lessons 00:26:01.680 --> 00:26:05.839 from Katrina Ian Helene to continuously improve. 00:26:06.119 --> 00:26:09.039 A constant learning cycle. Absolutely. Communication 00:26:09.039 --> 00:26:12.039 services forecasts always adapting. Then there's 00:26:12.039 --> 00:26:14.509 that persistent evacuation dilemma. And it's 00:26:14.509 --> 00:26:17.509 growing, isn't it? Rapidly intensifying hurricanes, 00:26:17.869 --> 00:26:20.170 more common with climate change, shrink that 00:26:20.170 --> 00:26:23.250 critical evacuation window. And New Orleans needs... 00:26:23.250 --> 00:26:25.809 A full 72 hours to safely evacuate everyone. 00:26:26.069 --> 00:26:28.490 A massive undertaking. That window might just 00:26:28.490 --> 00:26:31.049 not be available with a rapidly intensifying 00:26:31.049 --> 00:26:34.190 cap four or five. A terrifying prospect. Which 00:26:34.190 --> 00:26:37.029 is why, for you, the listener, awareness is key. 00:26:37.589 --> 00:26:39.970 Understanding these trends, the progress, the 00:26:39.970 --> 00:26:43.240 challenges. It's part of the solution. Informed 00:26:43.240 --> 00:26:45.380 citizens can advocate for a sustained investment 00:26:45.380 --> 00:26:47.700 for community preparedness, helping safeguard 00:26:47.700 --> 00:26:51.220 lives and livelihoods. So wrapping this up, what 00:26:51.220 --> 00:26:53.319 does it all mean? We've journeyed through two 00:26:53.319 --> 00:26:55.819 decades of incredible science, amazing engineering, 00:26:56.119 --> 00:26:58.279 satellites to armored levees, all driven by the 00:26:58.279 --> 00:27:00.359 harsh lessons of Hurricane Katrina. We've seen 00:27:00.359 --> 00:27:03.119 forecasting is dramatically better. Storm surge 00:27:03.119 --> 00:27:06.160 is better understood. better predicted. And New 00:27:06.160 --> 00:27:08.859 Orleans defenses are significantly more robust, 00:27:08.960 --> 00:27:12.220 much stronger than before. But crucial challenges 00:27:12.220 --> 00:27:16.019 remain. Intensifying storms due to climate change, 00:27:16.500 --> 00:27:19.720 potential funding fluctuations. We've made immense 00:27:19.720 --> 00:27:23.079 strides, but Mother Nature keeps evolving. And 00:27:23.079 --> 00:27:25.720 so must our preparedness, our vigilance, our 00:27:25.720 --> 00:27:28.460 commitment to keep improving. This really raises 00:27:28.460 --> 00:27:30.099 an important question for you listening at home 00:27:30.099 --> 00:27:33.819 to consider. What role do you think continued 00:27:33.819 --> 00:27:36.559 scientific investment plays in safeguarding our 00:27:36.559 --> 00:27:39.539 communities? Beyond the tech. Exactly. Even with 00:27:39.539 --> 00:27:41.980 the most advanced technology, the best engineering, 00:27:42.900 --> 00:27:45.339 the human element remains the ultimate variable. 00:27:45.529 --> 00:27:49.089 Our ability to prepare, respond, adapt. How do 00:27:49.089 --> 00:27:51.750 we ensure effective communication, comprehensive 00:27:51.750 --> 00:27:54.289 community preparedness, not only keep pace with 00:27:54.289 --> 00:27:56.309 science, but actually lead the way? Especially 00:27:56.309 --> 00:27:58.509 when the stakes are just so incredibly high. 00:27:58.569 --> 00:28:00.390 It's the critical question. That's a powerful 00:28:00.390 --> 00:28:02.329 thought to leave you with. And it really underscores 00:28:02.329 --> 00:28:04.789 why meteorology matters. We hope this exploration 00:28:04.789 --> 00:28:06.990 has given you a clearer, more nuanced picture. 00:28:07.269 --> 00:28:09.829 The complexities and the triumphs in hurricane 00:28:09.829 --> 00:28:12.920 science and safety. If you found this insightful, 00:28:13.339 --> 00:28:16.180 please like, follow, comment, and rate Meteorology 00:28:16.180 --> 00:28:18.319 Matters wherever you listen. If feedback helps 00:28:18.319 --> 00:28:20.680 others, find the show. And for more incredible 00:28:20.680 --> 00:28:23.240 insights into weather phenomena, make sure to 00:28:23.240 --> 00:28:25.880 follow meteorologist Rob Jones. Where can people 00:28:25.880 --> 00:28:28.880 find him? You can find him on Instagram as Meteorologist. 00:28:29.000 --> 00:28:31.920 That's easy to remember. Got it. On TikTok, he's 00:28:31.920 --> 00:28:35.019 TV Meteorologist. OK. And on YouTube, just search 00:28:35.019 --> 00:28:37.660 for Rob Jones Hurricane. You'll also find the 00:28:37.660 --> 00:28:39.640 Meteorology Matters playlist there. Excellent. 00:28:39.779 --> 00:28:42.380 Lots of ways to connect. Definitely. Until next 00:28:42.380 --> 00:28:44.859 time, stay informed, stay curious, and stay safe.