WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.919 Welcome to the Meteorology Matters podcast. Today 00:00:02.919 --> 00:00:05.379 we're, well, we're taking a moment to reflect 00:00:05.379 --> 00:00:08.240 on something really significant. It's the 20th 00:00:08.240 --> 00:00:11.109 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. It really is 00:00:11.109 --> 00:00:13.570 a major milestone. An event that wasn't just 00:00:13.570 --> 00:00:16.309 about the incredible destruction, but how it 00:00:16.309 --> 00:00:18.809 fundamentally changed how we look at natural 00:00:18.809 --> 00:00:20.870 disasters, and maybe more importantly, how we 00:00:20.870 --> 00:00:23.710 prepare or don't prepare. That's the unsettling 00:00:23.710 --> 00:00:26.609 part, isn't it? Looking back, you see so much 00:00:26.609 --> 00:00:29.269 progress, so much change in how we handle these 00:00:29.269 --> 00:00:32.609 storms. But then you also see these echoes, these 00:00:32.609 --> 00:00:35.689 challenges from 20 years ago that feel, well, 00:00:35.929 --> 00:00:39.460 uncomfortably close even now. Absolutely. So 00:00:39.460 --> 00:00:41.640 our mission today on Meteorology Matters is to 00:00:41.640 --> 00:00:44.780 really unpack that complex legacy. We'll trace 00:00:44.780 --> 00:00:48.560 Katrina's meteorological journey, which was ferocious. 00:00:48.579 --> 00:00:50.700 Oh, absolutely. We'll look at the huge challenges 00:00:50.700 --> 00:00:52.740 in the human response, the recovery efforts, 00:00:52.820 --> 00:00:55.159 which were often chaotic. To say the least. And 00:00:55.159 --> 00:00:57.759 then, importantly, explore how those lessons, 00:00:57.939 --> 00:01:00.140 the hard -won ones, and maybe the ones we've 00:01:00.140 --> 00:01:02.640 let slip, how they still shape our vulnerability 00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:04.939 today. Exactly. We want to pull out the critical 00:01:04.939 --> 00:01:07.480 insights, look at Katrina's impact, how disaster 00:01:07.480 --> 00:01:09.640 management and hurricane science have evolved 00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:12.500 since 05. What did we actually learn? What really 00:01:12.500 --> 00:01:16.219 got better? And why are some top experts now 00:01:16.219 --> 00:01:18.299 ringing alarm bells saying we might be, you know, 00:01:18.480 --> 00:01:20.819 backsliding, slipping back into some dangerous 00:01:20.819 --> 00:01:23.760 old habits? It's a huge story. Nature's power, 00:01:23.939 --> 00:01:26.760 yes, but also human systems, human resilience 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:29.739 and, well, sometimes human failure. It really 00:01:29.739 --> 00:01:33.370 is. OK, so. To really get a grip on Katrina's 00:01:33.370 --> 00:01:35.390 impact, we have to go back to the storm itself, 00:01:35.469 --> 00:01:38.909 the raw power. And we often hear disasters are 00:01:38.909 --> 00:01:41.170 unforeseen, but the warnings for New Orleans, 00:01:41.709 --> 00:01:43.549 they were stark. Let's start at the beginning, 00:01:43.670 --> 00:01:46.049 the storm's birth. Right. It wasn't just one 00:01:46.049 --> 00:01:48.569 thing. It was kind of a meteorological mix. You 00:01:48.569 --> 00:01:51.590 had a tropical wave, remnants of an old depression, 00:01:51.689 --> 00:01:53.989 an upper level trough. All coming together. Yeah, 00:01:54.010 --> 00:01:56.310 coalescing over the southeastern Bahamas. That 00:01:56.310 --> 00:02:00.150 was August 23, 2005. And it didn't hang around. 00:02:00.319 --> 00:02:03.060 No time wasted. Pretty quickly. August 24th, 00:02:03.120 --> 00:02:05.939 it's tropical storm Katrina. A day later, boom, 00:02:06.340 --> 00:02:08.639 hurricane status. And its first landfall was 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:11.479 Florida. That's right. Category one, southeastern 00:02:11.479 --> 00:02:13.479 Florida, right near the Miami -Dade - Broward 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:17.280 County line, August 25th. Okay. But here's the 00:02:17.280 --> 00:02:20.180 thing. Usually crossing land, especially a peninsula 00:02:20.180 --> 00:02:23.699 like Florida, it tears a storm up. Yeah, disrupts 00:02:23.699 --> 00:02:27.250 the core. But Katrina... Its eyes stayed remarkably 00:02:27.250 --> 00:02:30.009 intact crossing the Everglades, which are, you 00:02:30.009 --> 00:02:32.110 know, very wet, but still land. So it maintained 00:02:32.110 --> 00:02:34.530 its structure. It did, which meant as soon as 00:02:34.530 --> 00:02:37.610 it hit that warm Gulf of Mexico water, it was 00:02:37.610 --> 00:02:40.289 perfectly set up to re -intensify. Fast. Like 00:02:40.289 --> 00:02:43.370 adding fuel to a fire. Exactly. High octane fuel 00:02:43.370 --> 00:02:45.930 for a supercharged engine. And intensify feels 00:02:45.930 --> 00:02:48.250 like an understatement. It just exploded in the 00:02:48.250 --> 00:02:50.990 Gulf. It really did. We saw two distinct periods 00:02:50.990 --> 00:02:53.789 of rapid intensification. That's where a storm 00:02:53.789 --> 00:02:56.009 strengthens incredibly quickly. Grindingly fast. 00:02:56.110 --> 00:02:58.610 Yeah. In less than 12 hours, this is August 28th, 00:02:58.710 --> 00:03:01.090 Katrina just surged. Went from a category three 00:03:01.090 --> 00:03:04.550 to a monster category five. Wow. That speed itself 00:03:04.550 --> 00:03:07.030 is a lesson, isn't it? Even with warnings, these 00:03:07.030 --> 00:03:10.719 shifts can happen so fast. perilously fast, reduces 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:14.080 reaction time down to almost nothing. That rapid 00:03:14.080 --> 00:03:19.159 intensification it peaked at 150 knots. That's 00:03:19.159 --> 00:03:21.919 173 miles per hour winds. Just hard to even imagine 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:24.639 that force. And the pressure dropped like a stone, 00:03:24.639 --> 00:03:28.500 down to 902 millibars. At the time, that was 00:03:28.500 --> 00:03:30.599 the fourth lowest pressure ever recorded in the 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:32.460 Atlantic. And that low pressure, it's not just 00:03:32.460 --> 00:03:35.000 a number, is it? It's what pulls the ocean inward. 00:03:35.240 --> 00:03:37.439 Essentially, yes. It creates a vacuum effect 00:03:37.439 --> 00:03:39.300 that helps lift the sea surface, contributing 00:03:39.300 --> 00:03:42.330 massively to the storm surge. predicting that 00:03:42.330 --> 00:03:44.789 kind of explosive growth is, well, the holy grail 00:03:44.789 --> 00:03:46.930 for forecasters because it leaves communities 00:03:46.930 --> 00:03:49.379 so little time. So after hitting that peak, that 00:03:49.379 --> 00:03:51.819 Cat 5 monster status, it did weaken slightly 00:03:51.819 --> 00:03:53.979 before hitting Louisiana. It did, yeah. It settled 00:03:53.979 --> 00:03:56.280 back to a Category 3 before its first Louisiana 00:03:56.280 --> 00:03:59.240 landfall near Burrus, winds around 127 miles 00:03:59.240 --> 00:04:02.500 per hour, 110 knots. Still incredibly powerful. 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:04.439 Absolutely. And then a second landfall a few 00:04:04.439 --> 00:04:06.719 hours later near the Louisiana -Mississippi border, 00:04:06.900 --> 00:04:09.599 still a Cat 3, about 121 miles per hour. What 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:11.620 caused that weakening, just natural fluctuations? 00:04:11.879 --> 00:04:14.039 Mostly internal changes. It went through something 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:16.759 called an eyewall replacement cycle. Think of 00:04:16.759 --> 00:04:19.540 it like the storm reorganizing, forming a new, 00:04:19.779 --> 00:04:22.680 often larger eye. So the peak winds might drop 00:04:22.680 --> 00:04:25.300 a bit, but the storm gets bigger. Exactly. And 00:04:25.300 --> 00:04:28.079 that's crucial. Even as a cap three, Katrina 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:31.180 was exceptionally large. Its hurricane force 00:04:31.180 --> 00:04:33.680 winds stretched way out from the center. Meaning 00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:36.959 the damage footprint was huge. Massive. That 00:04:36.959 --> 00:04:39.519 size was a huge factor in the catastrophic storm 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:42.139 surge it generated. It reminds you, the category 00:04:42.139 --> 00:04:44.800 number isn't the whole story. Size matters a 00:04:44.800 --> 00:04:48.199 lot. Okay. Let's shift focus to New Orleans itself, 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:51.860 the city's geography. It just seems tailor -made 00:04:51.860 --> 00:04:54.699 for disaster. It's tragically unique. Over 80 00:04:54.699 --> 00:04:57.600 % of the city is at or below sea level. It really 00:04:57.600 --> 00:04:59.680 is like a bowl. Protected by levees? Protected 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:01.779 by a complex system of levees and flood walls, 00:05:01.980 --> 00:05:05.620 yes. But that very geography made it incredibly 00:05:05.620 --> 00:05:07.759 vulnerable. And that vulnerability wasn't just 00:05:07.759 --> 00:05:10.389 natural, right? Human actions played a part. 00:05:10.649 --> 00:05:13.709 A huge part. Decades of wetland loss and coastal 00:05:13.709 --> 00:05:15.730 erosion had stripped away the city's natural 00:05:15.730 --> 00:05:18.050 defenses. Those marshes and swamps acted like 00:05:18.050 --> 00:05:21.329 a buffer. A massive buffer. They absorbed storm 00:05:21.329 --> 00:05:24.910 surge, slowed down winds. But as they disappeared, 00:05:25.290 --> 00:05:27.829 the Gulf of Mexico basically moved closer to 00:05:27.829 --> 00:05:29.990 the city's doorstep. Bringing the full force 00:05:29.990 --> 00:05:33.509 of the storm right in. A lesson in messing with 00:05:33.509 --> 00:05:36.110 natural systems. A profound one. And the really 00:05:36.110 --> 00:05:38.850 tough part is, this wasn't a secret. The danger 00:05:38.850 --> 00:05:41.529 was known. Predicted, even. Well, absolutely. 00:05:42.050 --> 00:05:45.170 It wasn't a surprise attack. Back in 2002, the 00:05:45.170 --> 00:05:47.509 New Orleans Times -Picking -In ran this incredible 00:05:47.509 --> 00:05:50.569 10 -part series, called it The Big One. Chilling 00:05:50.569 --> 00:05:52.569 title. And it laid out exactly what could happen. 00:05:52.730 --> 00:05:55.509 Predicted a major hurricane could put 20 feet 00:05:55.509 --> 00:05:59.089 of water in the city. 20 feet? That's not a vague 00:05:59.089 --> 00:06:01.889 warning. That's a specific, terrifying forecast. 00:06:02.029 --> 00:06:04.389 It was. And scientists were sounding the alarm, 00:06:04.689 --> 00:06:07.519 too. Ivor van Heerden, who was co -director of 00:06:07.519 --> 00:06:09.920 LSU's Hurricane Center then, he specifically 00:06:09.920 --> 00:06:12.199 warned the Army Corps of Engineers. About the 00:06:12.199 --> 00:06:14.399 levees themselves? Yes. He pointed out the parts 00:06:14.399 --> 00:06:17.300 were built on soft soil, prone to erosion, prone 00:06:17.300 --> 00:06:19.660 to failure. And the Corps' response? He recalled 00:06:19.660 --> 00:06:21.800 it being quite dismissive, something like, these 00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:23.800 are federal levees built to federal standards. 00:06:23.860 --> 00:06:27.540 They're not going to fail. Wow. A sort of... 00:06:27.439 --> 00:06:30.740 Institutional blindness. Or perhaps overconfidence, 00:06:31.839 --> 00:06:34.519 ignoring the specific local risks the science 00:06:34.519 --> 00:06:36.519 being presented. And the warnings kept coming. 00:06:36.579 --> 00:06:38.699 There was that FEMA simulation exercise. Right, 00:06:38.819 --> 00:06:41.819 just a year before Katrina in 2004, Hurricane 00:06:41.819 --> 00:06:45.240 Pam, funded by FEMA. And what did Pam predict? 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:47.819 Pretty much exactly what happened. Thousands 00:06:47.819 --> 00:06:50.699 of deaths, city -wide flooding from a slow -moving 00:06:50.699 --> 00:06:53.259 Category 3 hitting New Orleans. It was a dry 00:06:53.259 --> 00:06:55.399 run for the apocalypse. So the blueprint for 00:06:55.399 --> 00:06:58.139 disaster wasn't right there? It was. But Van 00:06:58.139 --> 00:07:00.959 Heerden, who was involved in PAM, he felt the 00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:03.480 federal officials just didn't grasp the severity. 00:07:03.899 --> 00:07:06.060 He even mentioned hearing laughter in back rooms 00:07:06.060 --> 00:07:08.319 during his presentation, like he was just some 00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:10.680 geek with a strange accent. That's incredibly 00:07:10.680 --> 00:07:13.100 frustrating. If the warnings were so clear, so 00:07:13.100 --> 00:07:15.620 detailed, why wasn't more done? That's the billion 00:07:15.620 --> 00:07:17.970 -dollar question, isn't it? It seems it wasn't 00:07:17.970 --> 00:07:20.029 a lack of knowledge, but a failure to act on 00:07:20.029 --> 00:07:21.949 that knowledge. A failure to connect the dots 00:07:21.949 --> 00:07:24.189 and invest appropriately. And the consequence 00:07:24.189 --> 00:07:26.689 of that failure was the impact of the storm itself. 00:07:26.850 --> 00:07:28.910 The storm surge, you described it as monumental. 00:07:29.269 --> 00:07:31.769 It truly was. Along a 20 -mile stretch of the 00:07:31.769 --> 00:07:35.629 Mississippi coast, it hit 24 to 28 feet. The 00:07:35.629 --> 00:07:38.490 peak recorded was 27 .8 feet at past Christian. 00:07:38.750 --> 00:07:40.949 Can you even visualize that? Three stories high. 00:07:41.050 --> 00:07:44.189 Pretty much. A wall of churning water. And it 00:07:44.189 --> 00:07:47.100 wasn't just one spot. Eastern New Orleans, St. 00:07:47.220 --> 00:07:49.800 Bernard Parish, Plaquemines Parish, they got 00:07:49.800 --> 00:07:52.660 15 to 19 feet. Still catastrophic. Absolutely. 00:07:52.819 --> 00:07:55.579 Even Western New Orleans saw 10 to 14 feet. It 00:07:55.579 --> 00:07:57.779 just overwhelmed the defenses. And the levees. 00:07:58.079 --> 00:08:00.800 They failed. They did. The surge poured over 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:02.899 the tops and just eroded them from the backside. 00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:05.680 Major breaches along the Industrial Canal, the 00:08:05.680 --> 00:08:08.439 London Avenue Canal, the 17th Street Canal. Leading 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:11.259 to that unbelievable flooding figure. 80 % of 00:08:11.259 --> 00:08:14.199 the city. 80%. Some areas under 20 feet of water. 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:17.720 And it took 43 days. 43 days to pump it all out. 00:08:17.839 --> 00:08:20.480 Just let that sink in. 43 days underwater. The 00:08:20.480 --> 00:08:22.720 scale is hard to comprehend. And the human cost? 00:08:22.939 --> 00:08:25.660 Equally immense. Horrifying. Katrina remains 00:08:25.660 --> 00:08:29.459 one of the deadliest U .S. hurricanes, 1 ,392 00:08:29.459 --> 00:08:32.100 total fatalities. And that includes direct and 00:08:32.100 --> 00:08:36.500 indirect deaths. Yes. 520 direct deaths, people 00:08:36.500 --> 00:08:38.740 killed by the storm itself, mostly storm surge, 00:08:39.259 --> 00:08:42.659 and then 565 indirect deaths. Things like heat 00:08:42.659 --> 00:08:44.960 stress during the aftermath, lack of medical 00:08:44.960 --> 00:08:47.639 care, accidents during cleanup. Mostly in Louisiana 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:50.220 and Mississippi. Predominantly. Louisiana depths 00:08:50.220 --> 00:08:52.059 were mostly from the flooding in its aftermath. 00:08:52.879 --> 00:08:55.120 Mississippi saw more direct storm surge fatalities. 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:58.100 Yeah. These numbers. They represent shattered 00:08:58.100 --> 00:09:00.639 families, lost communities. The personal stories 00:09:00.639 --> 00:09:02.679 are just heartbreaking. Robert Green from the 00:09:02.679 --> 00:09:05.080 Lower Ninth Ward. Yeah, his account, his house 00:09:05.080 --> 00:09:07.500 floating away, his family, mother, grandkids 00:09:07.500 --> 00:09:10.080 clinging to the roof. And tragically losing his 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:12.039 mother and granddaughter. Yet his resilience, 00:09:12.419 --> 00:09:14.580 saying, I'm a New Orleanian, participating in 00:09:14.580 --> 00:09:16.500 the commemorative parades now. It speaks volumes 00:09:16.500 --> 00:09:18.659 about the spirit there. It's an unimaginable 00:09:18.659 --> 00:09:22.450 loss. And the economic toll. Astronomical. $125 00:09:22.450 --> 00:09:25.830 billion in damage back in 2005. Which adjusts 00:09:25.830 --> 00:09:30.830 to? About $186 .3 billion in 2022. Still the 00:09:30.830 --> 00:09:33.230 costliest U .S. hurricane ever. That number alone 00:09:33.230 --> 00:09:35.629 tells you the scale. It's not just a human tragedy, 00:09:35.889 --> 00:09:38.370 but an economic cataclysm with impacts that last 00:09:38.370 --> 00:09:41.250 for generations. Absolutely. A profound economic 00:09:41.250 --> 00:09:44.070 shock. Which brings us to the evacuation and 00:09:44.070 --> 00:09:47.350 the initial response. Chaos seems like the right 00:09:47.350 --> 00:09:49.850 word. Utter chaos. Yeah. A systemic failure, 00:09:49.929 --> 00:09:53.149 really. Governor Blanco issued a mandatory evacuation, 00:09:53.269 --> 00:09:55.970 but maybe 100 ,000 people stayed behind. Why? 00:09:56.350 --> 00:09:58.429 Couldn't get out. Many lacked transportation, 00:09:58.889 --> 00:10:01.409 lacked resources. It starkly highlighted the 00:10:01.409 --> 00:10:04.250 social inequities that disasters always expose. 00:10:04.629 --> 00:10:07.389 The plans to use school buses, city buses. Yeah. 00:10:07.590 --> 00:10:10.309 They just didn't happen. Leaving thousands stranded. 00:10:10.529 --> 00:10:13.570 Exactly. And the designated shelters. They weren't 00:10:13.570 --> 00:10:15.909 much better. The Superdome, the shelter of last 00:10:15.909 --> 00:10:18.230 resort, was overwhelmed almost immediately. And 00:10:18.230 --> 00:10:20.169 the Convention Center, reports from there were 00:10:20.169 --> 00:10:23.389 horrific. Desperate. No food, no water, no medical 00:10:23.389 --> 00:10:26.370 care, no security. Reports of lawlessness. It 00:10:26.370 --> 00:10:28.490 became the symbol of absolute system breakdown. 00:10:28.870 --> 00:10:31.169 A place of supposed safety turned into a scene 00:10:31.169 --> 00:10:33.610 of intense suffering. What's almost unbelievable 00:10:33.610 --> 00:10:35.509 is the apparent lack of awareness at the top. 00:10:35.730 --> 00:10:38.289 That interview with DHS Secretary Cherdoff? Right. 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:40.940 three days after landfall, and he seemed unaware 00:10:40.940 --> 00:10:42.960 of the conditions at the convention center. He 00:10:42.960 --> 00:10:44.720 thought the Superdome, the official site, was 00:10:44.720 --> 00:10:46.960 supplied. But the convention center was where 00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:49.320 thousands ended up spontaneously. Precisely. 00:10:49.379 --> 00:10:52.000 It showed this massive disconnect, a failure 00:10:52.000 --> 00:10:54.659 of real -time situational awareness at the highest 00:10:54.659 --> 00:10:56.539 levels of government. They just didn't seem to 00:10:56.539 --> 00:10:58.980 know what was happening on the ground. That disconnect 00:10:58.980 --> 00:11:01.759 wasn't just a momentary lapse, was it? It pointed 00:11:01.759 --> 00:11:04.320 to deeper problems in the federal response structure 00:11:04.320 --> 00:11:08.340 itself. FEMA came under incredible fire. Intense 00:11:08.340 --> 00:11:12.120 fire. And you have to look back a bit. In 2003, 00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:14.659 FEMA got absorbed into the new Department of 00:11:14.659 --> 00:11:17.320 Homeland Security. Post -9 -11 reorganization, 00:11:17.480 --> 00:11:20.139 focus on counter -terrorism. Right. But experts 00:11:20.139 --> 00:11:22.860 like Sarah DeYoung argue that Move cut FEMA off 00:11:22.860 --> 00:11:25.340 from direct access to the president. hindered 00:11:25.340 --> 00:11:27.440 its ability to act quickly and decisively in 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:30.460 a natural disaster, took away its clout, essentially. 00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:32.799 And it wasn't just structure, but people too. 00:11:32.919 --> 00:11:35.539 The brain drain. Samantha Montana talks about 00:11:35.539 --> 00:11:39.059 that. The reorganization led to experienced expert 00:11:39.059 --> 00:11:42.019 staff leaving FEMA. You lose that institutional 00:11:42.019 --> 00:11:44.460 knowledge that expertise built over years. And 00:11:44.460 --> 00:11:47.039 you're left vulnerable when a crisis hits. Critically 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:50.080 vulnerable. As Stephen Murphy from Tulane said, 00:11:50.360 --> 00:11:53.559 in New Orleans, FEMA became a four -letter word. 00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:56.539 That tells you everything about the public perception 00:11:56.539 --> 00:11:59.080 of the loss of trust. And trust is everything 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:01.700 in a disaster. Absolutely vital. Without it, 00:12:02.039 --> 00:12:04.559 recovery is 10 times harder. The official review 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:06.820 afterward, the Bush administration report, it 00:12:06.820 --> 00:12:10.000 laid out numerous failings, 14 critical challenges. 00:12:10.159 --> 00:12:12.399 Yeah, it was a pretty stark assessment. Instead 00:12:12.399 --> 00:12:15.720 of listing all 14 like a checklist, maybe we 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:18.259 can group them, see the bigger patterns of failure. 00:12:18.779 --> 00:12:21.399 It seems like the core issue was the system just 00:12:21.399 --> 00:12:23.720 wasn't built for something this big. That's a 00:12:23.720 --> 00:12:26.259 great way to look at it. A catastrophe overwhelmed 00:12:26.259 --> 00:12:29.820 a system designed for lesser disasters. So let's 00:12:29.820 --> 00:12:32.240 maybe start with a theme of command communication 00:12:32.240 --> 00:12:35.559 and coordination chaos. Sounds about right. First, 00:12:36.059 --> 00:12:38.100 just basic national preparedness. The report 00:12:38.100 --> 00:12:41.120 found structural flaws. No unified management 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:44.330 for a catastrophe. Unclear command control. Key 00:12:44.330 --> 00:12:45.990 leaders weren't even familiar with the basic 00:12:45.990 --> 00:12:48.269 playbook, the National Response Plan, or the 00:12:48.269 --> 00:12:50.769 Incident Command System. So the plan existed, 00:12:50.830 --> 00:12:53.590 but people didn't know how to use it. Or it wasn't 00:12:53.590 --> 00:12:57.009 robust enough for this scale. Then you have the 00:12:57.009 --> 00:12:59.529 integrated use of military capabilities. The 00:12:59.529 --> 00:13:03.750 DoD had this cumbersome 21 -step process just 00:13:03.750 --> 00:13:06.649 to request help. 21 steps while a city drowns. 00:13:06.929 --> 00:13:11.250 Exactly. Slow, bureaucratic. Plus... Poor coordination 00:13:11.250 --> 00:13:13.210 between active duty military and the National 00:13:13.210 --> 00:13:16.250 Guard because they had separate command chains, 00:13:16.509 --> 00:13:18.289 like two hands not knowing what the other's doing. 00:13:18.490 --> 00:13:21.129 Which obviously links to communications. Totally 00:13:21.129 --> 00:13:23.909 broken. Katrina literally wiped out the infrastructure, 00:13:24.450 --> 00:13:27.110 cell towers down, landlines dead. It wasn't just 00:13:27.110 --> 00:13:28.950 about radios not talking to each other, though 00:13:28.950 --> 00:13:31.409 that was also an issue. The whole network collapsed. 00:13:31.490 --> 00:13:34.750 Right. And even when assets were available, like 00:13:34.750 --> 00:13:36.870 a big cache of radios from the Forest Service, 00:13:37.210 --> 00:13:39.529 there was no plan to integrate them. The communication 00:13:39.529 --> 00:13:42.029 backbone just snapped. And that breakdown extended 00:13:42.029 --> 00:13:44.870 to talking to the public, public communications. 00:13:45.870 --> 00:13:47.629 Noah, the National Hurricane Center did a great 00:13:47.629 --> 00:13:49.490 job getting the weather warnings out beforehand. 00:13:49.970 --> 00:13:52.269 That saved lives, no question. But during and 00:13:52.269 --> 00:13:55.090 after. State and local officials didn't use the 00:13:55.090 --> 00:13:58.169 emergency alert system effectively. And worse, 00:13:58.649 --> 00:14:00.929 you had conflicting messages coming from different 00:14:00.929 --> 00:14:04.149 government sources. That created confusion, eroded 00:14:04.149 --> 00:14:06.799 trust. right when people needed clear information 00:14:06.799 --> 00:14:10.240 most. Confusion is the enemy in a crisis. Absolutely. 00:14:10.799 --> 00:14:13.419 And this coordination chaos even hampered dealing 00:14:13.419 --> 00:14:15.820 with outside help. Foreign assistance, for instance. 00:14:16.179 --> 00:14:18.399 We weren't ready for international aid. Shockingly 00:14:18.399 --> 00:14:22.000 unprepared. 151 nations offered help. Yeah. But 00:14:22.000 --> 00:14:24.539 the U .S. lacked systems to manage it, prioritize 00:14:24.539 --> 00:14:27.279 it, integrate it. Bureaucracy led to delays, 00:14:27.919 --> 00:14:30.500 unused resources. It was embarrassing. We couldn't 00:14:30.500 --> 00:14:32.620 even track foreign nationals affected. And what 00:14:32.620 --> 00:14:35.779 about help from within the U .S., non -governmental 00:14:35.779 --> 00:14:38.879 groups? Non -governmental aid was huge. Faith 00:14:38.879 --> 00:14:42.299 -based groups, NGOs, they did incredible work. 00:14:42.480 --> 00:14:44.659 often despite government hurdles. But they weren't 00:14:44.659 --> 00:14:47.340 integrated into the plan. No real plan existed 00:14:47.340 --> 00:14:50.019 to leverage them effectively. A failure to harness 00:14:50.019 --> 00:14:52.720 the power of civil society, which is often first 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:54.799 on the ground. OK, so that's the command and 00:14:54.799 --> 00:14:57.120 coordination mess. What's the next big theme? 00:14:57.460 --> 00:14:59.460 It's called the logistical and humanitarian crisis. 00:15:00.259 --> 00:15:02.899 This covers getting resources and aid to people. 00:15:03.019 --> 00:15:05.679 Starting with just basic logistics and evacuations. 00:15:05.820 --> 00:15:08.720 The system was totally inadequate. Federal managers 00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:10.659 struggled to figure out what was needed where, 00:15:11.019 --> 00:15:13.539 how to track supplies, how to use private companies 00:15:13.539 --> 00:15:16.720 effectively, and the feds were unprepared for 00:15:16.720 --> 00:15:19.860 mass evacuations when local efforts failed, hence 00:15:19.860 --> 00:15:22.480 the Superdome disaster. Yeah. And search and 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:24.659 rescue, you mentioned coordination issues there 00:15:24.659 --> 00:15:27.620 too. Severely hampered. No single integrated 00:15:27.620 --> 00:15:32.399 command. Coast Guard, FEMA teams, DOD. often 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:35.519 working in silos. Leading to duplication or gaps. 00:15:35.879 --> 00:15:37.700 Right. Rescued people were sometimes just dropped 00:15:37.700 --> 00:15:40.340 off, like on highway overpasses with no support. 00:15:40.820 --> 00:15:43.019 And many SAR teams weren't even trained for water 00:15:43.019 --> 00:15:44.919 rescue, which was the main need. And then there's 00:15:44.919 --> 00:15:47.279 public safety and security, law and order breakdown. 00:15:47.539 --> 00:15:49.779 It deteriorated rapidly, especially in New Orleans. 00:15:50.419 --> 00:15:52.340 The local police were overwhelmed. Many were 00:15:52.340 --> 00:15:54.940 victims themselves. Federal law enforcement was 00:15:54.940 --> 00:15:58.000 slow to arrive and lacked pre -planned coordination. 00:15:58.460 --> 00:16:00.899 It made a terrifying situation even more dangerous. 00:16:01.129 --> 00:16:03.509 Health care must have collapsed, too. Public 00:16:03.509 --> 00:16:05.970 health and medical support. Completely overwhelmed. 00:16:06.529 --> 00:16:08.250 Louisiana and Mississippi were already ranked 00:16:08.250 --> 00:16:10.850 49th and 50th in public health infrastructure 00:16:10.850 --> 00:16:13.149 before the storm. So they had no capacity for 00:16:13.149 --> 00:16:15.750 this. None. Federal medical assets were poorly 00:16:15.750 --> 00:16:19.110 coordinated. Aid was delayed. Resources sat unused. 00:16:19.590 --> 00:16:21.269 Volunteer doctors and nurses weren't managed 00:16:21.269 --> 00:16:24.230 effectively. Just chaos. And for the survivors 00:16:24.230 --> 00:16:27.879 who lost everything. Human services. A bureaucratic 00:16:27.879 --> 00:16:31.159 nightmare. Vulnerable people navigating complex 00:16:31.159 --> 00:16:34.259 systems just to get basic help. Disaster recovery 00:16:34.259 --> 00:16:36.340 centers were supposed to be one -stop shops, 00:16:36.639 --> 00:16:38.799 but they weren't. People bounced from agency 00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:41.299 to agency. Adding trauma to trauma. Exactly. 00:16:41.740 --> 00:16:44.340 And finally, under this theme, mass care and 00:16:44.340 --> 00:16:47.039 housing. Just finding places for hundreds of 00:16:47.039 --> 00:16:49.419 thousands of displaced people. The scale was 00:16:49.419 --> 00:16:51.460 unprecedented. And the plans were inadequate. 00:16:51.840 --> 00:16:54.139 Federal solutions like cruise ships and those 00:16:54.139 --> 00:16:56.320 infamous trailers often didn't meet people's 00:16:56.320 --> 00:16:59.360 needs. And expertise from agencies like HUD wasn't 00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:01.759 brought in effectively until much later. Trying 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:05.240 to solve a massive complex problem with ill -fitting, 00:17:05.519 --> 00:17:08.519 slow solutions? Pretty much. Okay, one more big 00:17:08.519 --> 00:17:11.779 theme from that report. Yes, let's call it infrastructure 00:17:11.779 --> 00:17:15.680 and environmental neglect. Things beyond the 00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:18.200 immediate human crisis. Like critical infrastructure 00:17:18.200 --> 00:17:22.099 itself. Power. Energy. Katrina hammered it. especially 00:17:22.099 --> 00:17:26.079 the energy sector. Millions lost power. But federal 00:17:26.079 --> 00:17:28.599 efforts to assess and repair were hampered by 00:17:28.599 --> 00:17:30.980 poor coordination between different support functions 00:17:30.980 --> 00:17:33.380 and between federal, state, and local levels. 00:17:33.819 --> 00:17:35.759 There wasn't even a good understanding of how 00:17:35.759 --> 00:17:37.680 different infrastructure systems depended on 00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:40.480 each other. Like power fails, then water pumps 00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:43.619 fail. Exactly. Cascading failures. And the damage 00:17:43.619 --> 00:17:46.400 assessment teams often lacked the specific expertise 00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:48.960 needed for things like power grids or refineries. 00:17:49.059 --> 00:17:51.619 And the environment. Environmental hazards and 00:17:51.619 --> 00:17:54.779 debris removal must have been huge issues. Massive. 00:17:54.819 --> 00:17:57.900 Over 7 million gallons of oil spilled. Superfund 00:17:57.900 --> 00:18:00.599 hazardous waste sites flooded. But identifying 00:18:00.599 --> 00:18:03.319 these hazards and warning people was slow, hampered 00:18:03.319 --> 00:18:05.779 by other priorities. And debris removal, especially 00:18:05.779 --> 00:18:08.400 from private property, got bogged down in complex 00:18:08.400 --> 00:18:11.079 rules. A mountain of debris made recovery even 00:18:11.079 --> 00:18:14.839 harder. So, taken together. Those 14 points, 00:18:15.140 --> 00:18:18.740 grouped like that, they paint a devastating picture 00:18:18.740 --> 00:18:21.460 of a system totally unprepared. Fundamentally 00:18:21.460 --> 00:18:23.960 unprepared for a catastrophe of that scale. It 00:18:23.960 --> 00:18:26.859 revealed deep flaws in almost every aspect of 00:18:26.859 --> 00:18:28.859 disaster management. Which makes it even more 00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:31.279 concerning to hear experts now talking about 00:18:31.279 --> 00:18:33.859 backsliding. 20 years later, are we forgetting 00:18:33.859 --> 00:18:36.299 those lessons? That's the fear. It's alarming. 00:18:36.660 --> 00:18:39.079 Experts within the system are raising these concerns. 00:18:39.259 --> 00:18:41.700 What does backsliding actually mean in practice? 00:18:42.029 --> 00:18:45.609 Fewer resources, less expertise. Both and more. 00:18:46.490 --> 00:18:48.869 Samantha Montano stated quite bluntly that many 00:18:48.869 --> 00:18:51.970 gains FEMA made post -Katrina have backslid in 00:18:51.970 --> 00:18:55.029 the past four months, echoing the pre -Katrina 00:18:55.029 --> 00:18:57.230 vulnerabilities. That's a strong statement. It 00:18:57.230 --> 00:18:59.529 is, and there are specifics. FEMA has reportedly 00:18:59.529 --> 00:19:01.630 lost about a quarter of its full -time staff, 00:19:01.910 --> 00:19:03.849 including senior leaders. Experience walking 00:19:03.849 --> 00:19:06.279 out the door. Exactly. And there's concern about 00:19:06.279 --> 00:19:09.140 political appointees lacking real emergency management 00:19:09.140 --> 00:19:11.380 expertise. The current acting administrator, 00:19:11.680 --> 00:19:13.819 David Richardson, reports say he came from counter 00:19:13.819 --> 00:19:17.420 -WMD work, the Marines, and was reportedly unaware 00:19:17.420 --> 00:19:20.279 the U .S. has a hurricane season. Wait, seriously? 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:23.599 unaware of hurricane season. That was the report. 00:19:24.019 --> 00:19:26.440 Whether it's entirely accurate or not, it signals 00:19:26.440 --> 00:19:29.440 a worrying trend mirroring the pre -Katrina era 00:19:29.440 --> 00:19:32.059 when political connections sometimes trumped 00:19:32.059 --> 00:19:34.440 expertise and appointments. That brain drain 00:19:34.440 --> 00:19:36.819 again. Losing the people who actually know how 00:19:36.819 --> 00:19:38.940 to manage these events. It's a direct threat. 00:19:39.619 --> 00:19:41.359 Expertise isn't optional in this field. It's 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:43.529 critical. And it's not just personnel. What about 00:19:43.529 --> 00:19:46.390 funding? Budget cuts and program freezes? Also 00:19:46.390 --> 00:19:50.349 happening. $750 million cut from the BRIC grant 00:19:50.349 --> 00:19:52.990 program that's for building resilient infrastructure 00:19:52.990 --> 00:19:56.009 before disasters hit. So less prevention money. 00:19:56.589 --> 00:19:59.329 And reportedly, no new hazard mitigation grants 00:19:59.329 --> 00:20:02.490 allocated to states since February 2025, despite 00:20:02.490 --> 00:20:04.950 applications piling up. That's leaving communities 00:20:04.950 --> 00:20:07.450 more vulnerable down the line. And then there 00:20:07.450 --> 00:20:09.970 are bureaucratic hurdles, making it harder for 00:20:09.970 --> 00:20:13.470 FEMA to actually operate. Yes, bureaucratic hurdles 00:20:13.470 --> 00:20:16.349 and restrictive policies. Reports suggest new 00:20:16.349 --> 00:20:19.349 expense policies under DHS Secretary Kristi Noem 00:20:19.349 --> 00:20:22.390 have slowed things down dramatically. Thousands 00:20:22.390 --> 00:20:24.809 of contracts backlogged for basic things like 00:20:24.809 --> 00:20:27.549 cell phones or crucial things like debris removal. 00:20:27.769 --> 00:20:29.549 So even if they have the money, they can't spend 00:20:29.549 --> 00:20:32.730 it quickly. That seems to be the issue. It reportedly 00:20:32.730 --> 00:20:35.250 caused delays during the Texas floods in July 00:20:35.250 --> 00:20:38.670 2025. If your rapid response agency is tangled 00:20:38.670 --> 00:20:41.789 in red tape, how can it respond rapidly? It's 00:20:41.789 --> 00:20:43.910 gotten so bad that FEMA employees themselves 00:20:43.910 --> 00:20:47.630 are protesting. Over 180 signed a letter to Congress 00:20:47.630 --> 00:20:49.809 warning that current leadership and policies 00:20:49.809 --> 00:20:53.009 risk a Katrina level disaster, calling for FEMA 00:20:53.009 --> 00:20:55.990 to be independent outside of DHS. That's extraordinary 00:20:55.990 --> 00:20:58.690 internal dissent like that. It signals deep problems. 00:20:59.250 --> 00:21:00.809 And there have been odd staff reassignments, 00:21:01.049 --> 00:21:04.400 too. Dozens of FEMA staff reportedly reassigned 00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:06.980 to help ICE with recruitment. Taking disaster 00:21:06.980 --> 00:21:09.420 experts away from disaster prep. Employees argue 00:21:09.420 --> 00:21:11.799 it violates the post -Katrina reforms meant to 00:21:11.799 --> 00:21:14.440 protect FEMA's mission capability. It directly 00:21:14.440 --> 00:21:16.720 weakens hurricane season readiness. This all 00:21:16.720 --> 00:21:18.720 feeds into a bigger debate about the federal 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:21.750 role, doesn't it? proposals to eliminate FEMA. 00:21:22.109 --> 00:21:24.529 Yes, the administration has floated that idea, 00:21:24.670 --> 00:21:27.190 leaving it all to the states. But polling shows 00:21:27.190 --> 00:21:29.589 three quarters of Americans reject that. People 00:21:29.589 --> 00:21:31.970 seem to understand states can't handle this alone. 00:21:32.470 --> 00:21:35.609 Experts certainly do. LT General Russell Honore, 00:21:35.990 --> 00:21:38.150 the man who led the military response in Katrina, 00:21:38.549 --> 00:21:41.890 is adamant. No state can handle a major storm, 00:21:42.450 --> 00:21:45.130 thousands of rescues, mass evacuations without 00:21:45.130 --> 00:21:47.259 federal help. The military only got involved 00:21:47.259 --> 00:21:50.180 because the state was overwhelmed. Exactly. And 00:21:50.180 --> 00:21:52.460 Stephen Murphy at Tulane says New Orleans simply 00:21:52.460 --> 00:21:54.259 wouldn't have recovered without federal support. 00:21:54.440 --> 00:21:56.579 So what's the real cost of inaction here if we 00:21:56.579 --> 00:21:58.539 allow this backsliding? It means states will 00:21:58.539 --> 00:22:00.500 be unable to cope financially or logistically. 00:22:01.079 --> 00:22:03.640 With the next big one, Louisiana's entire budget 00:22:03.640 --> 00:22:08.400 in 2005 was $17 .5 billion. Katrina cost $125 00:22:08.400 --> 00:22:11.859 billion. The math doesn't work. So disinvestment 00:22:11.859 --> 00:22:14.359 now means exponentially higher costs and money 00:22:14.359 --> 00:22:16.960 and lives later. Precisely. It's forgetting the 00:22:16.960 --> 00:22:18.819 most fundamental economic lesson of Katrina. 00:22:19.460 --> 00:22:21.519 Preparation and prevention pay huge dividends. 00:22:22.160 --> 00:22:24.819 Backsliding is fiscally irresponsible and dangerous. 00:22:25.240 --> 00:22:27.240 OK, that's sobering. But let's pivot to something 00:22:27.240 --> 00:22:30.019 more positive. Because alongside these systemic 00:22:30.019 --> 00:22:32.759 worries, there have been huge leaps in the science, 00:22:33.039 --> 00:22:35.059 right? Meteorology and forecasting. Absolutely. 00:22:35.099 --> 00:22:37.519 That's the encouraging part of the story. Katrina, 00:22:37.900 --> 00:22:42.470 Rita, Wilma, that brutal 2005 season, it really 00:22:42.470 --> 00:22:45.029 galvanized the research community. Spurred investment. 00:22:45.269 --> 00:22:47.769 Big time. It led directly to the Hurricane Forecast 00:22:47.769 --> 00:22:50.839 Improvement Project, HVEP. launched by NOAA in 00:22:50.839 --> 00:22:54.519 2007, a major collaborative effort. And they 00:22:54.519 --> 00:22:57.039 set some pretty audacious goals. Extremely ambitious. 00:22:57.799 --> 00:22:59.819 Congress mandated the improved track and intensity 00:22:59.819 --> 00:23:03.039 forecast by 50 % within a decade. 50 %? Did they 00:23:03.039 --> 00:23:06.559 actually hit that? Largely yes. By 2023, a five 00:23:06.559 --> 00:23:09.519 -day track forecast was as accurate as a 2D forecast 00:23:09.519 --> 00:23:11.990 was back in 2005. Think about that extra lead 00:23:11.990 --> 00:23:14.430 time. That's huge for evacuations, preparations. 00:23:15.009 --> 00:23:16.990 Massive. And intensity forecast errors dropped 00:23:16.990 --> 00:23:21.549 56 % between 2007 and 2023. Even rapid intensification 00:23:21.549 --> 00:23:24.210 forecasting improved by 25%. It's a remarkable 00:23:24.210 --> 00:23:26.269 success. As Jeff Master said, funding works. 00:23:26.529 --> 00:23:28.250 Invest in the science, get better forecasts. 00:23:28.369 --> 00:23:30.549 It's clear proof of concept. So what's behind 00:23:30.549 --> 00:23:33.349 these improvements? Better computers. That's 00:23:33.349 --> 00:23:35.549 a big part of it. Advanced computer models. Right. 00:23:35.650 --> 00:23:37.869 We have much more powerful supercomputers now. 00:23:38.059 --> 00:23:40.720 like at the NOAA lab in Boulder. They can run 00:23:40.720 --> 00:23:43.740 models with much finer detail, especially resolving 00:23:43.740 --> 00:23:46.920 the storm's inner core, which is key for intensity 00:23:46.920 --> 00:23:49.460 changes. Higher resolution means more accuracy. 00:23:49.759 --> 00:23:52.319 Essentially, yes. And these models are constantly 00:23:52.319 --> 00:23:55.099 running, incorporating new data, learning, and 00:23:55.099 --> 00:23:57.420 improving. And the data itself is better, too. 00:23:57.539 --> 00:24:00.660 Enhanced observations. Crucially better. Those 00:24:00.660 --> 00:24:02.859 hurricane hunter planes flying into the storms, 00:24:03.000 --> 00:24:05.500 they deploy drop sons, little sensor packs on 00:24:05.500 --> 00:24:08.869 parachutes, and use Doppler radar. That data 00:24:08.869 --> 00:24:12.309 can improve forecast by up to 24%. Brave work 00:24:12.309 --> 00:24:14.529 getting that data. Incredible dedication. And 00:24:14.529 --> 00:24:16.250 then there's satellite technology. It's just 00:24:16.250 --> 00:24:18.309 revolutionized things. Beyond just pictures of 00:24:18.309 --> 00:24:21.430 clouds. Way beyond. Early 2000 satellites gave 00:24:21.430 --> 00:24:24.369 us cloud top views. Now, satellites like DOES 00:24:24.369 --> 00:24:27.690 -16 give stunningly clear images, sub -kilometer 00:24:27.690 --> 00:24:30.130 resolution. But the real game changer is microwave 00:24:30.130 --> 00:24:32.769 sensors, including on DoD satellites. They're 00:24:32.769 --> 00:24:35.789 like an MRI on the storm. They let scientists 00:24:35.789 --> 00:24:38.569 see through the clouds, assess the storm's internal 00:24:38.569 --> 00:24:40.990 structure, its potential for strengthening, how 00:24:40.990 --> 00:24:43.390 much rain it holds. So you can see inside, not 00:24:43.390 --> 00:24:45.789 just the surface. That must help with predicting 00:24:45.789 --> 00:24:48.730 rapid intensification. Exactly. It gives critical 00:24:48.730 --> 00:24:50.829 clues about whether a storm is about to explode 00:24:50.829 --> 00:24:53.730 in strength. So better science, better tech, 00:24:53.869 --> 00:24:57.410 better forecasts. Is there a demonstrable economic 00:24:57.410 --> 00:25:00.990 value to this? Does it save money? Immensely 00:25:00.990 --> 00:25:03.569 so. It's not just cool science. It's an incredible 00:25:03.569 --> 00:25:06.990 investment. HAP cost about 250 million dollars 00:25:06.990 --> 00:25:10.329 over its first decade, 2009 to 2019. OK, seems 00:25:10.329 --> 00:25:13.210 like a lot, but. But a 2024 economic analysis 00:25:13.210 --> 00:25:15.809 calculated the value of those improved forecasts 00:25:15.809 --> 00:25:19.250 at roughly $2 billion saved for every single 00:25:19.250 --> 00:25:21.430 major storm that makes landfall. Two billion 00:25:21.430 --> 00:25:23.609 per storm. That's the estimate. The return on 00:25:23.609 --> 00:25:25.569 investment is staggering. So spending on weather 00:25:25.569 --> 00:25:28.470 research isn't an expense. It's like a 401k for 00:25:28.470 --> 00:25:30.769 national resilience, as one expert put it. It 00:25:30.769 --> 00:25:33.630 saves lives. protects property and yields massive 00:25:33.630 --> 00:25:37.049 economic returns. It's a powerful argument against 00:25:37.049 --> 00:25:39.430 cutting science budgets. A brilliant financial 00:25:39.430 --> 00:25:41.329 strategy, really. When you look at it that way, 00:25:41.490 --> 00:25:44.009 yes. But here's the harsh reality check. Even 00:25:44.009 --> 00:25:46.829 as our forecasts get better, the storms themselves 00:25:46.829 --> 00:25:50.349 seem to be getting worse. Climate change is amplifying 00:25:50.349 --> 00:25:53.140 the threat. That's the unavoidable context now. 00:25:53.539 --> 00:25:56.079 Researchers are virtually certain climate change 00:25:56.079 --> 00:25:58.019 is making tropical cyclones more destructive. 00:25:58.480 --> 00:26:00.980 It has a whole new layer of risk. How exactly? 00:26:01.220 --> 00:26:03.900 What are the mechanisms? Several key ways. First, 00:26:04.279 --> 00:26:06.279 hotter oceans. The Gulf of Mexico, for instance, 00:26:06.359 --> 00:26:08.660 is about one degree Celsius warmer than in the 00:26:08.660 --> 00:26:12.759 1950s. That warmer water is pure fuel for hurricanes. 00:26:12.920 --> 00:26:15.680 More energy, stronger storms. And a higher likelihood 00:26:15.680 --> 00:26:18.700 of that dangerous, rapid intensification. Less 00:26:18.700 --> 00:26:20.700 time to prepare for potentially stronger storms. 00:26:20.880 --> 00:26:22.940 And the atmosphere itself. Hotter atmosphere, 00:26:23.019 --> 00:26:26.000 more rain. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, 00:26:26.039 --> 00:26:29.240 about 7 % more for every one degree Celsius rise. 00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:32.420 Like a bigger sponge. Exactly. So when a hurricane 00:26:32.420 --> 00:26:35.240 wrings that sponge out, you get more torrential 00:26:35.240 --> 00:26:38.220 rainfall. Climate change boosted Hurricane Harvey's 00:26:38.220 --> 00:26:41.880 rainfall by an estimated 15%. And remember, water 00:26:41.880 --> 00:26:44.319 surge and rain is often the biggest killer and 00:26:44.319 --> 00:26:46.880 causes the most damage. Not just the wind. Not 00:26:46.880 --> 00:26:49.079 just the wind. We're also seeing northward track 00:26:49.079 --> 00:26:51.640 shifts. Storms are tending to reach their peak 00:26:51.640 --> 00:26:54.000 intensity farther north. Meaning places less 00:26:54.000 --> 00:26:56.819 prepared could get hit harder, like New York, 00:26:56.920 --> 00:27:00.000 maybe? Potentially, yes. Cities that historically 00:27:00.000 --> 00:27:02.319 weren't in the primary impact zone might face 00:27:02.319 --> 00:27:05.119 greater threats. The risk map is changing. And 00:27:05.119 --> 00:27:07.700 the possibility of multiple big storms at once 00:27:07.700 --> 00:27:10.180 compounding disasters. Climate change makes that 00:27:10.180 --> 00:27:12.940 more likely. We saw it in 2017 with Harvey, Irma, 00:27:12.980 --> 00:27:15.619 and Maria. That stretched even a better staffed 00:27:15.619 --> 00:27:19.700 FEMA thin. Imagine that scenario today with the 00:27:19.700 --> 00:27:22.519 backsliding concerns. It's worrying. Especially 00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:24.880 since more people are living on the coasts. Increased 00:27:24.880 --> 00:27:26.980 coastal development. That's another huge factor. 00:27:27.319 --> 00:27:29.619 Development in hurricane -prone areas has exploded. 00:27:30.160 --> 00:27:32.079 We're putting more people and more valuable property 00:27:32.079 --> 00:27:34.119 directly in the path of these stronger storms. 00:27:34.220 --> 00:27:37.119 Zilling bigger targets. Unfortunately, yes. And 00:27:37.119 --> 00:27:39.680 think about the aftermath. Vulnerability to heat. 00:27:39.930 --> 00:27:43.009 Power outages after a storm in hotter conditions. 00:27:43.529 --> 00:27:45.849 Exactly. Hotter baseline temperatures mean power 00:27:45.849 --> 00:27:48.109 outages are more dangerous. People left without 00:27:48.109 --> 00:27:50.769 AC for weeks face serious heat stress risks. 00:27:51.210 --> 00:27:54.069 We saw heat -related deaths after Katrina. That 00:27:54.069 --> 00:27:56.329 risk is amplified now. And the ultimate cruel 00:27:56.329 --> 00:27:59.789 irony. The very forecast improvements we've made 00:27:59.789 --> 00:28:02.369 are now potentially at risk. That's the fear. 00:28:02.710 --> 00:28:04.960 Cuts to the National Weather Service. The agency 00:28:04.960 --> 00:28:07.779 doing this vital work could undermine our ability 00:28:07.779 --> 00:28:10.420 to forecast rapid intensification accurately 00:28:10.420 --> 00:28:12.900 just when climate change makes it more likely 00:28:12.900 --> 00:28:15.400 and more critical to predict. It's dangerously 00:28:15.400 --> 00:28:17.599 short -sighted. So bringing this all together, 00:28:18.039 --> 00:28:20.039 the science is better but the threat is growing 00:28:20.039 --> 00:28:22.460 and our response systems might be weakening again. 00:28:22.859 --> 00:28:24.799 What does this mean for future resilience? What 00:28:24.799 --> 00:28:27.619 are the key takeaways for, you know, for us? 00:28:27.900 --> 00:28:29.759 Well, first we have to continue the scientific 00:28:29.759 --> 00:28:33.589 push. No complacency. HOPE is still setting goals, 00:28:33.950 --> 00:28:36.710 modeling storm cores seven days out, better surge 00:28:36.710 --> 00:28:39.390 and rain forecasts. It's an ongoing race. And 00:28:39.390 --> 00:28:41.529 importantly, integrating social science now. 00:28:41.690 --> 00:28:45.170 That seems new. Hugely important. Recognizing 00:28:45.170 --> 00:28:47.869 that a perfect forecast is useless if people 00:28:47.869 --> 00:28:51.150 don't get it, understand it, or act on it. So 00:28:51.150 --> 00:28:53.920 tailoring communication. Understanding behavior. 00:28:54.220 --> 00:28:56.559 Exactly. It's about making the science actionable 00:28:56.559 --> 00:28:59.380 for diverse communities, translating data into 00:28:59.380 --> 00:29:01.880 decisions. But all this progress is threatened 00:29:01.880 --> 00:29:04.920 by the danger of disinvestment. It really is. 00:29:05.420 --> 00:29:08.359 Experts warn cuts and chaos at agencies like 00:29:08.359 --> 00:29:12.079 NOAA could set us back years losing the ground 00:29:12.079 --> 00:29:14.759 we've gained. It jeopardizes safety. It ignores 00:29:14.759 --> 00:29:17.480 the economic benefits of forecasting. It's gambling 00:29:17.480 --> 00:29:19.990 with lives and property. Beyond the science, 00:29:20.069 --> 00:29:22.990 what about the human and systemic elements of 00:29:22.990 --> 00:29:25.049 preparedness? It's not just about levies, right? 00:29:25.109 --> 00:29:27.269 Not at all. It's about social and economic planning, 00:29:27.450 --> 00:29:30.190 too. What happens to evacuees? Do host communities 00:29:30.190 --> 00:29:32.450 have resources? Katrina showed we need plans 00:29:32.450 --> 00:29:34.930 for the displaced, not just plans for the disaster 00:29:34.930 --> 00:29:36.890 zone. Thinking about the whole picture. The whole 00:29:36.890 --> 00:29:39.750 system. And community engagement is key. Bringing 00:29:39.750 --> 00:29:41.849 everyone in youth, marginalized groups makes 00:29:41.849 --> 00:29:44.269 planning stronger, builds resilience from the 00:29:44.269 --> 00:29:46.650 ground up. It can't be just hopped down. And 00:29:46.650 --> 00:29:48.849 ultimately, Katrina hammered home the indispensable 00:29:48.849 --> 00:29:52.069 federal role. Undeniably, no state can handle 00:29:52.069 --> 00:29:54.930 a catastrophe alone. The scale requires federal 00:29:54.930 --> 00:29:58.710 coordination, resources, expertise. Disengaging 00:29:58.710 --> 00:30:01.410 is not an option. Preparation, though costly, 00:30:01.849 --> 00:30:03.990 is always cheaper than recovery. So the path 00:30:03.990 --> 00:30:06.589 forward seems clear, if challenging. It requires 00:30:06.589 --> 00:30:08.990 sustained commitment, strong federal support, 00:30:09.230 --> 00:30:11.630 coordination, investment and expertise, both 00:30:11.630 --> 00:30:14.069 scientific and logistical. We need to remember 00:30:14.069 --> 00:30:17.390 what worked after Katrina. the reforms, the investments, 00:30:17.529 --> 00:30:19.549 and make sure those aren't eroded. We have the 00:30:19.549 --> 00:30:21.230 roadmap. We just need the will to follow it. 00:30:21.589 --> 00:30:23.549 So today on the Meteorology Matters podcast, 00:30:23.630 --> 00:30:25.710 we've really journeyed through Katrina's legacy, 00:30:25.930 --> 00:30:28.230 the incredible scientific leaps, but also these 00:30:28.230 --> 00:30:30.130 deeply concerning warnings about our current 00:30:30.130 --> 00:30:32.490 preparedness. The lessons are stark. We need 00:30:32.490 --> 00:30:34.769 a robust, coordinated, well -funded approach, 00:30:34.930 --> 00:30:36.930 especially as climate change loads the dice. 00:30:37.130 --> 00:30:39.509 We just can't afford amnesia. Which really brings 00:30:39.509 --> 00:30:41.529 it back to you, our listener. What does being 00:30:41.529 --> 00:30:45.019 prepared truly mean now for you? your family, 00:30:45.279 --> 00:30:48.599 your community, the nation, with stronger storms 00:30:48.599 --> 00:30:51.599 and potentially weaker systems. How do we make 00:30:51.599 --> 00:30:53.900 sure the lessons of Katrina aren't just history 00:30:53.900 --> 00:30:56.740 but are actually embedded in how we act so we 00:30:56.740 --> 00:30:59.400 don't repeat those systemic failures? It's a 00:30:59.400 --> 00:31:01.700 vital question. Keep thinking about that balance 00:31:01.700 --> 00:31:04.960 of responsibility, local, state, federal, and 00:31:04.960 --> 00:31:07.900 what resilience looks like where you live. Your 00:31:07.900 --> 00:31:10.700 awareness matters. Thank you for joining us on 00:31:10.700 --> 00:31:12.799 this important edition of the Meteorology Matters 00:31:12.799 --> 00:31:15.180 podcast. We hope it gave you a deeper understanding 00:31:15.180 --> 00:31:17.200 and sparked some critical thinking. Stay safe 00:31:17.200 --> 00:31:19.180 out there. Before we go, don't forget to follow 00:31:19.180 --> 00:31:21.839 meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram. He's at 00:31:21.839 --> 00:31:25.279 Meteorologist. On TikTok, find him at TV Meteorologist 00:31:25.279 --> 00:31:27.759 and over on YouTube, search for Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:31:28.279 --> 00:31:30.539 You can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast 00:31:30.539 --> 00:31:33.000 playlist there. Until next time, stay curious, 00:31:33.259 --> 00:31:34.819 stay informed and stay safe.