WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.339 Okay, let's unpack this. Today, we're embarking 00:00:03.339 --> 00:00:07.099 on a deep exploration really into the heart of 00:00:07.099 --> 00:00:09.480 a truly massive weather event, a storm that hasn't 00:00:09.480 --> 00:00:11.419 just commanded our attention here, but has, well, 00:00:11.539 --> 00:00:13.380 quite literally captured global attention with 00:00:13.380 --> 00:00:16.429 its staggering scale. Hurricane Aaron. We're 00:00:16.429 --> 00:00:18.870 talking about a system so immensely vast. I mean, 00:00:19.030 --> 00:00:21.929 its cloud shield already extends a colossal 1 00:00:21.929 --> 00:00:24.750 ,000 miles. Think about that. Reaching all the 00:00:24.750 --> 00:00:26.769 way from the, you know, sun -drenched beaches 00:00:26.769 --> 00:00:29.109 of the Bahamas up to the cooler climes of New 00:00:29.109 --> 00:00:31.269 England. Just pause for a moment and consider 00:00:31.269 --> 00:00:34.070 that scale that's an atmospheric influence covering 00:00:34.070 --> 00:00:36.990 more than 15 states. It's an astonishing footprint. 00:00:37.229 --> 00:00:39.549 As we speak, the calendar shows us it's Thursday, 00:00:39.630 --> 00:00:42.530 August 21st, 2025, and ARIN is currently making 00:00:42.530 --> 00:00:44.590 its closest approach to the North Carolina coast. 00:00:44.990 --> 00:00:47.149 Our mission for this Meteorology Matters deep 00:00:47.149 --> 00:00:49.090 dive isn't just to track its immediate movements. 00:00:49.289 --> 00:00:51.130 No, we're here to sort of peel back the layers 00:00:51.130 --> 00:00:53.409 of Aaron's current behavior to project its path 00:00:53.409 --> 00:00:55.490 and the immediate impacts it will have. And perhaps 00:00:55.490 --> 00:00:57.990 most importantly, to meticulously connect the 00:00:57.990 --> 00:01:00.350 dots between such powerful, far reaching events 00:01:00.350 --> 00:01:03.149 and well, the larger climate picture that is 00:01:03.149 --> 00:01:05.250 undeniably shaping our world and the behavior 00:01:05.250 --> 00:01:07.629 of these storms. Yeah. And what's particularly 00:01:07.629 --> 00:01:09.430 compelling about Aaron, as you've highlighted 00:01:09.430 --> 00:01:12.760 so well, is not just its sheer scale. but how 00:01:12.760 --> 00:01:15.799 its very characteristics, its immense size, its 00:01:15.799 --> 00:01:18.459 rapid intensification, how they reflect these 00:01:18.459 --> 00:01:20.980 broader meteorological trends, trends that are 00:01:20.980 --> 00:01:23.000 becoming increasingly vital for us to understand. 00:01:23.400 --> 00:01:25.459 We're going to be discussing information gleaned 00:01:25.459 --> 00:01:28.900 directly from the very latest forecasts, real 00:01:28.900 --> 00:01:31.200 -time observations from those incredibly brave 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:33.319 hurricane hunters flying right into the storm, 00:01:33.799 --> 00:01:35.939 and of course, meticulous meteorological analysis. 00:01:36.420 --> 00:01:39.459 This confluence of data It really allows us to 00:01:39.459 --> 00:01:42.680 paint a comprehensive and dynamic picture of 00:01:42.680 --> 00:01:45.560 this formidable system. Absolutely. Now that 00:01:45.560 --> 00:01:47.599 we've set the stage with Aaron's immense scale, 00:01:47.780 --> 00:01:50.239 let's turn to its immediate behavior. What are 00:01:50.239 --> 00:01:52.019 the latest observations telling us about its 00:01:52.019 --> 00:01:54.579 current state and movement out there? Well, currently, 00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:57.299 Aaron is positioned around 34 .2 degrees north 00:01:57.299 --> 00:02:01.040 latitude, 72 .1 degrees west longitude. It is 00:02:01.040 --> 00:02:03.900 just literally just past its closest point to 00:02:03.900 --> 00:02:06.269 the North Carolina coast. It's moving at a pretty 00:02:06.269 --> 00:02:09.610 brisk pace northeastward at a clip of 15 knots, 00:02:09.969 --> 00:02:13.250 which translates to roughly 17 miles per hour. 00:02:13.930 --> 00:02:15.750 And despite having made its closest pass, it 00:02:15.750 --> 00:02:18.550 remains a remarkably powerful system. Estimated 00:02:18.550 --> 00:02:20.870 maximum sustained winds are still at a formidable 00:02:20.870 --> 00:02:24.150 90 knots or about 105 miles per hour. Still a 00:02:24.150 --> 00:02:26.509 strong category, too, then. Exactly. Still packing 00:02:26.509 --> 00:02:28.870 quite a punch. And we've had critical eyes on 00:02:28.870 --> 00:02:30.990 this storm, literally. The Air Force Reserve 00:02:30.990 --> 00:02:33.430 hurricane hunters, these, well, intrepid individuals 00:02:33.430 --> 00:02:36.180 who fly directly into the They've been providing 00:02:36.180 --> 00:02:38.379 invaluable data, haven't they? What did their 00:02:38.379 --> 00:02:40.360 last transect through air and reveal? They have 00:02:40.360 --> 00:02:43.300 indeed provided crucial insights, yes. On their 00:02:43.300 --> 00:02:45.879 last pass, they measured 700 millibar flight 00:02:45.879 --> 00:02:49.340 level winds of 100 knots. Now, for some context 00:02:49.340 --> 00:02:53.699 for you, 700 millibars is roughly... equivalent 00:02:53.699 --> 00:02:56.580 to an altitude of about 10 ,000 feet. And that's 00:02:56.580 --> 00:02:59.039 a crucial level for assessing the storm's actual 00:02:59.039 --> 00:03:01.800 wind structure. It's often less affected by surface 00:03:01.800 --> 00:03:03.659 friction than measurements closer to the ocean. 00:03:04.080 --> 00:03:06.620 So it gives us a clear, more representative picture 00:03:06.620 --> 00:03:09.419 of its inner core strength and how winds are 00:03:09.419 --> 00:03:12.120 distributed within the storm itself. They also 00:03:12.120 --> 00:03:13.960 found that the central pressure had risen slightly 00:03:13.960 --> 00:03:17.000 to 945 millibars. Okay, and a rising pressure 00:03:17.000 --> 00:03:20.060 means? Well, in simple terms, a hurricane's strength 00:03:20.060 --> 00:03:22.479 is inversely proportional to its central pressure. 00:03:22.919 --> 00:03:24.719 So the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:27.060 So this slight increase in pressure, while it 00:03:27.060 --> 00:03:29.400 might seem small, it's a subtle but important 00:03:29.400 --> 00:03:31.860 indicator. It suggests Aaron's peak intensity 00:03:31.860 --> 00:03:33.900 may have passed, or at least it's starting a 00:03:33.900 --> 00:03:35.939 slow decline, maybe undergoing some structural 00:03:35.939 --> 00:03:38.650 reorganization. Visually, the low -level center 00:03:38.650 --> 00:03:41.129 of the storm is still deeply embedded beneath 00:03:41.129 --> 00:03:44.689 a vast 90 nautical mile central dense overcast. 00:03:45.629 --> 00:03:47.889 And this isn't just a visual detail. The central 00:03:47.889 --> 00:03:50.509 dense overcast, it refers to the tightly packed 00:03:50.509 --> 00:03:53.729 circular cloud shield of deep convective clouds 00:03:53.729 --> 00:03:55.750 that typically surrounds the eye of a mature 00:03:55.750 --> 00:03:58.810 hurricane. It tells meteorologists that the storm's 00:03:58.810 --> 00:04:01.069 engine room, where all the energy is being drawn 00:04:01.069 --> 00:04:03.990 up from the ocean, is vast and incredibly well 00:04:03.990 --> 00:04:06.599 established. And that contributes significantly 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:09.539 to its enormous size and widespread impacts, 00:04:09.979 --> 00:04:13.159 even far from the immediate core. However, we're 00:04:13.159 --> 00:04:15.259 also observing outer convective bands stretching 00:04:15.259 --> 00:04:17.699 a couple hundred miles away, and importantly, 00:04:18.579 --> 00:04:20.839 some recent erosion of clouds in the southwestern 00:04:20.839 --> 00:04:22.860 part of the circulation. Right. So we have the 00:04:22.860 --> 00:04:24.800 slight rise in pressure, the satellite estimates 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:27.259 perhaps being a bit lower, and this cloud erosion 00:04:27.259 --> 00:04:29.660 you mentioned. What does that collection of observations 00:04:29.660 --> 00:04:31.870 tell you about Aaron's immediate future? Well, 00:04:31.870 --> 00:04:34.230 if we connect this to the broader meteorological 00:04:34.230 --> 00:04:37.550 picture, that slight rise in central pressure, 00:04:37.829 --> 00:04:39.949 combined with some of the satellite intensity 00:04:39.949 --> 00:04:43.709 estimates being a little lower. And yes, the 00:04:43.709 --> 00:04:46.790 erosion of clouds in the southwestern part, it 00:04:46.790 --> 00:04:48.930 all points directly to an increase in what we 00:04:48.930 --> 00:04:51.569 call wind shear. Wind shear, OK. For you, our 00:04:51.569 --> 00:04:54.269 listeners, increasing shear basically means that 00:04:54.269 --> 00:04:56.889 the wind speeds and directions are changing rapidly 00:04:56.889 --> 00:04:59.170 with height in the atmosphere around the storm. 00:04:59.689 --> 00:05:02.939 Imagine a tall perfectly formed spinning top, 00:05:03.060 --> 00:05:05.160 right? If you suddenly blew on it from different 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:06.959 directions and at different heights, it would 00:05:06.959 --> 00:05:09.360 start to wobble, tilt. Right, lose its balance. 00:05:09.540 --> 00:05:11.920 Exactly. It eventually loses its tight upright 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:14.160 spin. That's essentially what shear does to a 00:05:14.160 --> 00:05:16.240 hurricane. It can really tear at a hurricane 00:05:16.240 --> 00:05:19.759 structure, making it less organized and generally 00:05:19.759 --> 00:05:22.279 less able to intensify further or even causing 00:05:22.279 --> 00:05:24.300 it to weaken. Okay, that makes sense. And what 00:05:24.300 --> 00:05:26.560 about its path? Where is it headed now? As for 00:05:26.560 --> 00:05:29.100 its future track, the forecast reasoning remains 00:05:29.100 --> 00:05:31.339 quite consistent among the various weather models, 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:34.360 which is good. Aaron is expected to continue 00:05:34.360 --> 00:05:37.000 accelerating, making a pretty significant turn 00:05:37.000 --> 00:05:40.500 northeastward by Friday. This change in direction 00:05:40.500 --> 00:05:43.019 is because it's becoming increasingly embedded 00:05:43.019 --> 00:05:45.819 within the mid -latitude westerlies. Essentially, 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:48.639 it's getting caught in those fast -moving west 00:05:48.639 --> 00:05:51.060 -to -east atmospheric currents that exist outside 00:05:51.060 --> 00:05:53.120 the tropics. So it gets swept along, basically? 00:05:53.180 --> 00:05:55.459 Pretty much. These powerful winds will propel 00:05:55.459 --> 00:05:58.399 it rapidly eastward across the Atlantic. The 00:05:58.399 --> 00:06:01.139 latest track forecast actually shows Aaron racing 00:06:01.139 --> 00:06:03.560 across the North Atlantic, with its forward speed 00:06:03.560 --> 00:06:06.579 projected to peak at a rather brisk 35 knots 00:06:06.579 --> 00:06:09.639 that's around 40 miles per hour in about 72 hours 00:06:09.639 --> 00:06:12.759 from now. Wow, really moving. This naturally 00:06:12.759 --> 00:06:15.139 leads us to ask, will it get stronger? Given 00:06:15.139 --> 00:06:17.240 what you just described about the shear, it sounds 00:06:17.240 --> 00:06:19.339 like that window might be closing. You're absolutely 00:06:19.339 --> 00:06:22.240 right to ask that. The critical query then becomes, 00:06:22.379 --> 00:06:25.519 will it get stronger? And the answer, fortunately, 00:06:25.959 --> 00:06:27.939 seems to be that significant strengthening isn't 00:06:27.939 --> 00:06:31.160 expected. The atmosphere surrounding Aaron is 00:06:31.160 --> 00:06:33.899 becoming increasingly stable, and with that increasing 00:06:33.899 --> 00:06:36.899 shear we just discussed, the window for any further 00:06:36.899 --> 00:06:39.819 intensification is rapidly closing. We're looking 00:06:39.819 --> 00:06:42.259 at a period of slow weakening over the next 36 00:06:42.259 --> 00:06:44.879 hours or so. which will then likely transition 00:06:44.879 --> 00:06:47.540 into a more steady, gradual, weakening trend 00:06:47.540 --> 00:06:50.339 after that time. That's genuinely good news. 00:06:50.560 --> 00:06:52.439 It is. Good news for anyone who might have been 00:06:52.439 --> 00:06:54.500 concerned about it regaining its former Category 00:06:54.500 --> 00:06:57.279 5 intensity. Its energy source is shifting, and 00:06:57.279 --> 00:06:59.019 its structure is just becoming less favorable 00:06:59.019 --> 00:07:02.079 for pure tropical strength. Okay, so what does 00:07:02.079 --> 00:07:04.560 this all mean for those of you along the coast? 00:07:05.040 --> 00:07:06.899 Let's turn our attention to the key messages 00:07:06.899 --> 00:07:09.540 directly from the forecasters. Because despite 00:07:09.540 --> 00:07:11.420 Aaron beginning to pull away from the immediate 00:07:11.420 --> 00:07:14.259 U .S. coastline, its sheer, immense size means 00:07:14.259 --> 00:07:16.480 its influence is still incredibly far -reaching 00:07:16.480 --> 00:07:19.399 and vast. General warnings are currently in effect 00:07:19.399 --> 00:07:22.139 for life -threatening surf and dangerously powerful 00:07:22.139 --> 00:07:24.939 rip currents along beaches across a massive area. 00:07:25.300 --> 00:07:27.399 This includes the Bahamas, much of the U .S. 00:07:27.439 --> 00:07:30.310 East Coast, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. these 00:07:30.310 --> 00:07:33.129 dangerous conditions. They're expected to persist 00:07:33.129 --> 00:07:36.089 not just for hours, but for several days. It 00:07:36.089 --> 00:07:38.189 is absolutely crucial for your safety to follow 00:07:38.189 --> 00:07:40.050 advice from lifeguards and local authorities. 00:07:40.329 --> 00:07:42.370 Pay immediate attention to any beach warning 00:07:42.370 --> 00:07:45.029 flags you see. Seriously. And this isn't just 00:07:45.029 --> 00:07:47.310 about direct hits, it's really about the widespread 00:07:47.310 --> 00:07:50.189 impact of a truly gigantic storm system. Air 00:07:50.189 --> 00:07:52.290 in sheer size is precisely what makes it such 00:07:52.290 --> 00:07:54.149 a serious threat, even when it's hundreds of 00:07:54.149 --> 00:07:56.709 miles offshore. Its tropical storm force wind 00:07:56.709 --> 00:07:59.149 field alone extends an astonishing 300 miles 00:07:59.079 --> 00:08:01.560 from its center. And the high energy, dangerous 00:08:01.560 --> 00:08:03.579 ocean waves it generates, they're reaching over 00:08:03.579 --> 00:08:06.160 1 ,500 miles from the storm's core. That stretches 00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:08.579 from Florida all the way up to Newfoundland, 00:08:08.579 --> 00:08:10.660 Canada. That's why we're seeing an unprecedented 00:08:10.660 --> 00:08:13.899 15 states from Florida clear up to Maine, currently 00:08:13.899 --> 00:08:16.199 under some form of alert for hazardous coastal 00:08:16.199 --> 00:08:19.269 conditions. The geographic influence is just 00:08:19.269 --> 00:08:21.970 remarkable. It really is. And delving deeper 00:08:21.970 --> 00:08:23.730 into this, what's particularly compelling here 00:08:23.730 --> 00:08:27.290 is how the storm's massive size translates into 00:08:27.290 --> 00:08:30.529 very real, localized, and incredibly serious 00:08:30.529 --> 00:08:33.509 threats on the ground. Or, well, on the coast. 00:08:34.009 --> 00:08:36.230 Let's maybe break this down into specific regional 00:08:36.230 --> 00:08:38.750 impacts, connecting the storm's characteristics 00:08:38.750 --> 00:08:41.750 to the observed and anticipated effects. Good 00:08:41.750 --> 00:08:43.970 idea. Let's start with North Carolina, where 00:08:43.970 --> 00:08:45.929 it just made its closest approach. Right. For 00:08:45.929 --> 00:08:48.269 North Carolina, specifically the vulnerable outer 00:08:48.269 --> 00:08:50.929 banks, we are currently seeing ongoing storm 00:08:50.929 --> 00:08:53.269 surge, flooding and tropical storm conditions 00:08:53.269 --> 00:08:55.250 that will continue throughout today and into 00:08:55.250 --> 00:08:58.059 the evening. This storm surge, combined with 00:08:58.059 --> 00:09:01.039 truly large, powerful waves, is expected to lead 00:09:01.039 --> 00:09:04.279 to significant beach erosion and overwash. Imagine 00:09:04.279 --> 00:09:06.539 living on Hatteras Island, where Highway 12, 00:09:06.620 --> 00:09:09.159 your literal lifeline. It's not just flooded, 00:09:09.360 --> 00:09:11.919 but overwashed, meaning layers of sand and debris 00:09:11.919 --> 00:09:14.379 are now covering the road, making it completely 00:09:14.379 --> 00:09:17.399 impassable in places. Wow, that's isolation right 00:09:17.399 --> 00:09:20.600 there. Exactly. It isolates communities, complicates 00:09:20.600 --> 00:09:23.080 any emergency efforts, and makes travel impossible 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:26.230 for residents. Evacuation orders, in fact, remain 00:09:26.230 --> 00:09:28.649 firmly in place for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands 00:09:28.649 --> 00:09:31.750 for good reason. We're talking about anticipated 00:09:31.750 --> 00:09:34.649 wind gusts of 40 to 60 miles per hour in the 00:09:34.649 --> 00:09:36.909 Outer Banks combined with up to four feet of 00:09:36.909 --> 00:09:40.370 storm surge. And waves. Waves that could reach 00:09:40.370 --> 00:09:42.730 up to 20 feet 20 feet. It's hard to even visualize 00:09:42.730 --> 00:09:45.470 the power of that It's immense like two -story 00:09:45.470 --> 00:09:47.750 buildings collapsing onto the shore with every 00:09:47.750 --> 00:09:49.850 wave That's the kind of destructive force we're 00:09:49.850 --> 00:09:52.690 discussing and the highest tides which will exacerbate 00:09:52.690 --> 00:09:54.909 these effects They're expected this evening and 00:09:54.909 --> 00:09:57.250 will continue through Saturday So it's prolonged 00:09:57.250 --> 00:09:59.830 exposure and it's important to note the severity 00:09:59.830 --> 00:10:02.149 the governor of North Carolina has already declared 00:10:02.149 --> 00:10:04.149 a state of emergency They're taking this very 00:10:04.149 --> 00:10:06.549 seriously understandably. So okay moving north, 00:10:06.549 --> 00:10:09.700 Virginia and Maryland Yes, zooming out, the broader 00:10:09.700 --> 00:10:12.259 implications extend north to Virginia and Maryland. 00:10:13.019 --> 00:10:14.960 Virginia is also experiencing tropical storm 00:10:14.960 --> 00:10:18.100 conditions. Wind gusts to tropical storm forests 00:10:18.100 --> 00:10:20.320 are likely along portions of the U .S. Mid -Atlantic 00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:23.879 coast. We are anticipating moderate to even major 00:10:23.879 --> 00:10:26.000 coastal flooding, especially tonight, stretching 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.200 from Virginia Beach up to Ocean City, Maryland. 00:10:28.490 --> 00:10:30.830 For residents and businesses in these coastal 00:10:30.830 --> 00:10:33.070 areas, this translates to the very real potential 00:10:33.070 --> 00:10:36.149 for numerous road closures and significant inundation 00:10:36.149 --> 00:10:39.090 of homes of businesses near the shore. Beyond 00:10:39.090 --> 00:10:41.230 the flooding, you've got large, pounding waves 00:10:41.230 --> 00:10:43.870 of 10 to 14 feet, strong rip currents that can 00:10:43.870 --> 00:10:45.990 pull even experienced swimmers out to sea. Very 00:10:45.990 --> 00:10:49.490 dangerous. Extremely. And significant beach erosion, 00:10:49.830 --> 00:10:53.549 too. In the Chesapeake Bay area, that vast tidal 00:10:53.549 --> 00:10:55.809 estuary from Norfolk all the way up to Annapolis, 00:10:55.809 --> 00:10:58.789 Maryland. Water levels could be notably higher 00:10:58.789 --> 00:11:01.389 than normal, up to three feet higher. That could 00:11:01.389 --> 00:11:04.850 inundate low -lying coastal areas there. We could 00:11:04.850 --> 00:11:06.769 even see up to a half foot of flooding along 00:11:06.769 --> 00:11:09.210 the tidal Potomac River, potentially reaching 00:11:09.210 --> 00:11:11.289 into parts of Washington, D .C.'s waterfront. 00:11:11.870 --> 00:11:13.970 The National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia, 00:11:13.990 --> 00:11:16.210 they put it very starkly in their warning. I 00:11:16.210 --> 00:11:18.509 should quote this, dangerous shore break can 00:11:18.509 --> 00:11:21.110 throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the 00:11:21.110 --> 00:11:24.049 bottom causing neck and back injuries. Oof. That 00:11:24.049 --> 00:11:26.990 is incredibly vivid and sobering. It really underscores 00:11:26.990 --> 00:11:29.570 that even without direct landfall, these impacts 00:11:29.570 --> 00:11:32.590 are life -altering, potentially deadly. Absolutely. 00:11:32.690 --> 00:11:34.769 It's not just about the storm center. So how 00:11:34.769 --> 00:11:36.870 far north will these hazardous impacts really 00:11:36.870 --> 00:11:39.210 reach with significant force? What can communities 00:11:39.210 --> 00:11:41.629 in Delaware and New Jersey expect? Right. The 00:11:41.629 --> 00:11:44.789 critical query then becomes, how far north do 00:11:44.789 --> 00:11:47.899 these serious impacts extend? Moving into Delaware 00:11:47.899 --> 00:11:49.659 and New Jersey, we're seeing the potential for 00:11:49.659 --> 00:11:52.580 one to two feet of water inundating coastal and 00:11:52.580 --> 00:11:55.059 bayside communities along with tidal waterways 00:11:55.059 --> 00:11:57.519 that could make numerous roads impassable and 00:11:57.519 --> 00:12:01.120 severely restrict access. Dangerous surf is expected 00:12:01.120 --> 00:12:03.799 to slam the coastline, particularly today, Thursday, 00:12:04.179 --> 00:12:07.080 bringing immense wave energy. The worst conditions 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:08.879 will likely coincide with the high tide this 00:12:08.879 --> 00:12:11.200 evening, though hazardous conditions are certainly 00:12:11.200 --> 00:12:14.009 expected to continue right through Friday. The 00:12:14.009 --> 00:12:15.889 National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, 00:12:15.909 --> 00:12:18.250 New Jersey, had a particularly memorable phrase 00:12:18.250 --> 00:12:20.490 for it. They just said, the sea will be quite 00:12:20.490 --> 00:12:23.169 angry. Quite angry. That says a lot. It does. 00:12:23.230 --> 00:12:25.690 It signifies immense destructive wave power that 00:12:25.690 --> 00:12:28.450 can reshape shorelines and engage anyone too 00:12:28.450 --> 00:12:30.830 close to the water. It's not just a poetic description. 00:12:31.389 --> 00:12:33.210 Understood. And even further north, New York, 00:12:33.269 --> 00:12:36.570 New England. Even further north, yes. Reaching 00:12:36.570 --> 00:12:38.909 into New York and New England, from Staten Island 00:12:38.909 --> 00:12:41.110 all the way out to Montauk, New York, and then 00:12:41.110 --> 00:12:44.879 up to Nantucket, Massachusetts. High surf advisories 00:12:44.879 --> 00:12:47.879 and coastal flood warnings are firmly in effect. 00:12:48.320 --> 00:12:50.919 Here too, the primary risk is for life -threatening 00:12:50.919 --> 00:12:53.539 swimming and surfing conditions. Those powerful 00:12:53.539 --> 00:12:55.759 rip currents that act like invisible rivers pulling 00:12:55.759 --> 00:12:58.600 you out. And localized beach erosion, which can 00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:00.960 undermine coastal structures and dunes. Wave 00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:03.220 heights and energy will peak later today, Thursday 00:13:03.220 --> 00:13:05.980 and into Friday. We could see waves of 16 feet 00:13:05.980 --> 00:13:07.899 potentially hitting the south shore of Long Island. 00:13:08.100 --> 00:13:10.360 16 feet on Long Island's south shore? That's 00:13:10.360 --> 00:13:13.070 significant erosion potential. Huge potential. 00:13:13.429 --> 00:13:15.529 Think of a two -story house collapsing onto the 00:13:15.529 --> 00:13:17.830 beach repeatedly. That's the kind of energy. 00:13:18.210 --> 00:13:20.830 It could cause significant dune erosion and coastal 00:13:20.830 --> 00:13:23.169 flooding, with maybe up to two feet of water 00:13:23.169 --> 00:13:26.529 inundating vulnerable waterfront areas. Further 00:13:26.529 --> 00:13:28.870 up the coast, say from Cape Cod, Massachusetts 00:13:28.870 --> 00:13:31.769 up to Eastport, Maine, waves could reach up to 00:13:31.769 --> 00:13:33.690 18 feet at the southern end of that stretch. 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:36.419 gradually decreasing to around 10 feet toward 00:13:36.419 --> 00:13:38.639 the northern end, but still bringing similar 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:40.919 dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 00:13:40.919 --> 00:13:43.179 beach erosion issues. And it doesn't stop there, 00:13:43.259 --> 00:13:45.120 does it? You mentioned its reach beyond the U 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:48.379 .S. No, it really doesn't. Aaron's immense reach 00:13:48.379 --> 00:13:51.259 extends far beyond the U .S. mainland, truly 00:13:51.259 --> 00:13:53.879 demonstrating its global influence. Bermuda, 00:13:53.940 --> 00:13:56.039 for instance, will experience dangerous 10 to 00:13:56.039 --> 00:13:59.259 20 -foot waves as Aaron passes about 300 to 400 00:13:59.259 --> 00:14:01.960 miles to their west and north. There's even the 00:14:01.960 --> 00:14:03.720 potential for rogue waves those exceptionally 00:14:03.720 --> 00:14:06.019 large unexpected waves that seem to appear out 00:14:06.019 --> 00:14:09.259 of nowhere Maybe reaching up to 30 feet 30 feet. 00:14:09.259 --> 00:14:12.179 That's terrifying. It's like a three -story building 00:14:12.179 --> 00:14:15.659 water crashing down unbelievable force. Squalls 00:14:15.659 --> 00:14:17.899 of heavy rain and strong tropical storm force 00:14:17.899 --> 00:14:20.539 winds are also expected for Bermuda from today, 00:14:20.559 --> 00:14:23.120 Thursday, into early Friday. And for Atlantic 00:14:23.120 --> 00:14:25.080 Canada, rough and dangerous seas are anticipated 00:14:25.080 --> 00:14:27.080 along the southern coastlines of Nova Scotia 00:14:27.080 --> 00:14:30.379 and Newfoundland from Friday into Saturday. Gusts 00:14:30.379 --> 00:14:32.279 to gale force are possible along the coast of 00:14:32.279 --> 00:14:34.879 Nova Scotia on Friday, and then the Avalon Peninsula 00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:38.340 of Newfoundland on Saturday. This storm's influence 00:14:38.340 --> 00:14:41.240 truly spans a massive section of the North Atlantic, 00:14:41.799 --> 00:14:43.659 affecting countless communities even without 00:14:43.659 --> 00:14:45.779 making a direct landfall anywhere else from here 00:14:45.779 --> 00:14:48.610 on out. So Aaron is a truly massive storm as 00:14:48.610 --> 00:14:51.629 we've detailed, but it's also evolving and quite 00:14:51.629 --> 00:14:53.269 rapidly into something fundamentally different. 00:14:53.309 --> 00:14:55.669 What's next for it? Where is it heading beyond 00:14:55.669 --> 00:14:57.710 our shores? This is where we start talking about 00:14:57.710 --> 00:15:00.370 its grand transition, right? Moving from a fully 00:15:00.370 --> 00:15:03.210 tropical system to a post -tropical one. That's 00:15:03.210 --> 00:15:05.590 exactly right. The official forecast has in fact 00:15:05.590 --> 00:15:08.269 moved up Aaron's transition to a post -tropical 00:15:08.269 --> 00:15:10.840 cyclone. They're now calling for it at 60 hours 00:15:10.840 --> 00:15:13.200 from now, though some of the very latest guidance 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:15.179 based on the storm's current characteristics 00:15:15.179 --> 00:15:17.259 and the environment indicates this could happen 00:15:17.259 --> 00:15:20.460 even sooner, perhaps within, say, 36 to 48 hours. 00:15:20.679 --> 00:15:22.779 This is a crucial shift in its identity, how 00:15:22.779 --> 00:15:25.210 it gets its energy. Let's look at some key points 00:15:25.210 --> 00:15:27.830 from the forecast positions and maximum winds 00:15:27.830 --> 00:15:30.690 just to trace its journey across the Atlantic. 00:15:31.090 --> 00:15:33.649 At 5 a .m. Eastern Daylight Time today, Thursday, 00:15:33.690 --> 00:15:38.230 August 21st, Aaron was at 34 .2 north, 72 .1 00:15:38.230 --> 00:15:41.070 west, still sporting those powerful 90 knots 00:15:41.070 --> 00:15:44.470 or 105 miles per hour winds. But by 60 hours 00:15:44.470 --> 00:15:46.649 from now, so that's Saturday evening, it's projected 00:15:46.649 --> 00:15:50.809 to be way out at 43 .6 north, 48 .7 west, winds 00:15:50.809 --> 00:15:53.240 dropping to 65 knots or 75 miles per hour. miles 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:55.019 per hour and that's the point it will be formally 00:15:55.019 --> 00:15:57.179 classified as post tropical or extra tropical 00:15:57.179 --> 00:16:00.059 correct correct that's the marker okay then by 00:16:00.059 --> 00:16:02.759 72 hours early Sunday it's forecast to be at 00:16:02.759 --> 00:16:05.480 forty six point seven north forty point two west 00:16:05.480 --> 00:16:08.639 still a substantial system with 60 knots or 70 00:16:08.639 --> 00:16:11.840 miles per hour winds And even way out at 120 00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:14.059 hours, that's next Tuesday, it's expected to 00:16:14.059 --> 00:16:18.139 be near 56 .8 north, 21 .7 west, still with 45 00:16:18.139 --> 00:16:20.700 knots or 50 miles per hour winds. Still a significant 00:16:20.700 --> 00:16:23.019 force. It really is. That trajectory shows it 00:16:23.019 --> 00:16:24.840 literally crossing the entire Atlantic basin. 00:16:25.059 --> 00:16:27.100 It's quite a journey. And what's particularly 00:16:27.100 --> 00:16:28.759 fascinating here, what the models are showing, 00:16:28.860 --> 00:16:30.860 is that even as Aaron loses his tropical core 00:16:30.860 --> 00:16:33.179 and undergoes this post -tropical transformation, 00:16:33.799 --> 00:16:36.299 global weather models like the GFS and the European 00:16:36.299 --> 00:16:39.100 ECMWH, they're consistently trending toward keeping 00:16:39.100 --> 00:16:41.470 it remarkable. large and strong as it continues 00:16:41.470 --> 00:16:43.269 its rapid journey across the North Atlantic. 00:16:43.529 --> 00:16:45.789 So explain that extratropical transition a bit 00:16:45.789 --> 00:16:47.909 more. It loses its tropical heart but doesn't 00:16:47.909 --> 00:16:50.899 just fizzle out. Exactly. For our listeners, 00:16:51.299 --> 00:16:53.480 extra -tropical transition means the storm loses 00:16:53.480 --> 00:16:56.519 its warm, symmetric tropical core, which relies 00:16:56.519 --> 00:16:59.460 entirely on warm ocean waters for its energy. 00:16:59.899 --> 00:17:02.399 Instead, it essentially merges with a separate 00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:05.180 mid -latitude weather system. It starts drawing 00:17:05.180 --> 00:17:07.359 its energy now from these stark temperature differences 00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:09.279 found in the atmosphere outside the tropics' 00:17:09.440 --> 00:17:11.799 baroclinic energy, we call it, rather than just 00:17:11.799 --> 00:17:14.059 from ocean heat. But this doesn't necessarily 00:17:14.059 --> 00:17:16.259 mean it weakens significantly right away. In 00:17:16.259 --> 00:17:18.539 fact, its wind field can actually expand dramatically 00:17:18.539 --> 00:17:20.480 during this process. It could become an even 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:22.880 more sprawling and impactful system covering 00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:25.380 a much wider area. Interesting. So it changes 00:17:25.380 --> 00:17:28.140 character but not necessarily loses all its punch. 00:17:28.559 --> 00:17:31.740 Precisely. In fact, the National Oceanic and 00:17:31.740 --> 00:17:35.339 Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has adjusted 00:17:35.339 --> 00:17:37.839 its wind radii and intensity forecasts upward 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:40.779 for this post -tropical phase. That indicates 00:17:40.779 --> 00:17:42.819 it will continue to be a substantial system. 00:17:43.039 --> 00:17:45.980 capable of generating significant impacts across 00:17:45.980 --> 00:17:49.299 a very wide swath of ocean and eventually land. 00:17:49.710 --> 00:17:52.269 And if we connect this to the broader global 00:17:52.269 --> 00:17:55.150 picture, the remnants of Aaron will be scooped 00:17:55.150 --> 00:17:57.549 up and carried by the powerful jet stream, those 00:17:57.549 --> 00:18:00.210 fast moving rivers of air high in the atmosphere. 00:18:00.230 --> 00:18:02.170 They'll carry it straight across the Atlantic, 00:18:02.529 --> 00:18:04.309 heading directly toward Western Europe early 00:18:04.309 --> 00:18:06.710 next week. We're talking Monday and Tuesday specifically. 00:18:07.309 --> 00:18:10.130 Even as a post -tropical system, it's still expected 00:18:10.130 --> 00:18:13.049 to pack a considerable punch. It'll bring a notable 00:18:13.049 --> 00:18:15.450 risk of gusty, potentially damaging winds and 00:18:15.450 --> 00:18:18.009 large, dangerous waves, particularly to Ireland 00:18:18.009 --> 00:18:20.359 and Britain. Coastal communities there will definitely 00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:22.779 need to prepare for its arrival. That's an absolutely 00:18:22.779 --> 00:18:25.119 astonishing journey for one storm system. But 00:18:25.119 --> 00:18:27.640 this raises an important question. How exactly 00:18:27.640 --> 00:18:29.539 did it get so big in the first place? It's not 00:18:29.539 --> 00:18:32.619 just powerful. It's geographically immense. It's 00:18:32.619 --> 00:18:35.079 a truly remarkable transformation and a crucial 00:18:35.079 --> 00:18:37.299 aspect of understanding Aaron. It really does 00:18:37.299 --> 00:18:40.339 raise that question. How did it get so big? Aaron 00:18:40.339 --> 00:18:42.779 began as a more tightly coiled, albeit still 00:18:42.779 --> 00:18:46.319 incredibly powerful, category five storm. But 00:18:46.319 --> 00:18:48.950 since then, Its wind field has expanded to be 00:18:48.950 --> 00:18:52.910 more than, get this, 12 times larger than it 00:18:52.910 --> 00:18:55.390 was at its tropical peak intensity. 12 times 00:18:55.390 --> 00:18:58.349 larger. That's incredible. It really is. Think 00:18:58.349 --> 00:19:00.630 about that for a moment. It's like a small, intense 00:19:00.630 --> 00:19:03.470 vortex suddenly expanding its influence to cover 00:19:03.470 --> 00:19:07.049 a massive area. Currently, hurricane force winds 00:19:07.049 --> 00:19:10.369 extend a substantial 105 miles out from the center, 00:19:10.710 --> 00:19:13.210 and tropical storm force winds reach out an astounding 00:19:13.210 --> 00:19:16.170 325 miles from the center in some directions. 00:19:16.380 --> 00:19:19.200 This massive expansion is exactly why its impacts 00:19:19.200 --> 00:19:21.559 are so far -reaching. It's why we're seeing hazardous 00:19:21.559 --> 00:19:23.779 conditions so far from the storm's core, even 00:19:23.779 --> 00:19:25.839 when it's hundreds of miles away from land. It's 00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:27.839 a testament to the storm's ability to reorganize 00:19:27.839 --> 00:19:30.400 and expand its influence, a characteristic often 00:19:30.400 --> 00:19:32.359 linked, actually, to these rapid intensification 00:19:32.359 --> 00:19:35.099 events we saw earlier. Okay, this journey into 00:19:35.099 --> 00:19:37.740 Aaron's life cycle, from its rapid intensification 00:19:37.740 --> 00:19:40.579 to its massive size and these far -reaching impacts, 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:42.819 it brings us to an even bigger, more profound 00:19:42.819 --> 00:19:44.960 question, doesn't it? How does the storm intensify 00:19:44.960 --> 00:19:47.410 so rapidly? How does it become so massive? And 00:19:47.410 --> 00:19:48.990 why does it have such far -reaching influences 00:19:48.990 --> 00:19:51.349 across our planet? This is where climate science 00:19:51.349 --> 00:19:53.349 truly comes into play and where the dots, as 00:19:53.349 --> 00:19:55.849 you said, begin to connect very clearly. Think 00:19:55.849 --> 00:19:58.650 about this again. Overnight last Friday, Hurricane 00:19:58.650 --> 00:20:01.549 Aaron ratcheted up from a Category 1 to a Category 00:20:01.549 --> 00:20:04.349 5 storm. That made it one of the top five most 00:20:04.349 --> 00:20:07.130 quickly intensifying hurricanes on record. Its 00:20:07.130 --> 00:20:09.470 wind speeds increased by nearly 85 miles per 00:20:09.470 --> 00:20:12.589 hour in just 24 hours, peaking at an incredible 00:20:12.589 --> 00:20:15.920 161 miles per hour. This kind of explosive growth 00:20:15.920 --> 00:20:18.380 is what meteorologists call rapid intensification, 00:20:18.660 --> 00:20:20.420 and it's a phenomenon we seem to be seeing more 00:20:20.420 --> 00:20:22.180 and more of. And what's critically important 00:20:22.180 --> 00:20:25.140 here, what's truly fascinating, is how directly 00:20:25.140 --> 00:20:28.119 these rapid intensification events are being 00:20:28.119 --> 00:20:31.410 linked to global warming. As Jim Cawson, a renowned 00:20:31.410 --> 00:20:34.049 hurricane specialist and climate scientist, formerly 00:20:34.049 --> 00:20:36.529 with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:20:36.970 --> 00:20:38.730 put it so succinctly, and I think it's worth 00:20:38.730 --> 00:20:41.670 quoting again, it's a very easy set of dots to 00:20:41.670 --> 00:20:44.170 connect, pointing to a clear human fingerprint 00:20:44.170 --> 00:20:46.569 on these types of events. A human fingerprint? 00:20:46.930 --> 00:20:49.349 That's a strong statement. It is. He's telling 00:20:49.349 --> 00:20:51.789 us that the underlying conditions of our planet 00:20:51.789 --> 00:20:54.170 are changing in ways that make such explosive 00:20:54.170 --> 00:20:57.910 growth not just possible. but increasingly probable. 00:20:58.549 --> 00:21:00.849 Scientists identify this human fingerprint by 00:21:00.849 --> 00:21:03.529 using sophisticated climate models. They compare 00:21:03.529 --> 00:21:05.630 what happened in reality with simulations of 00:21:05.630 --> 00:21:08.029 a world without human -caused greenhouse gas 00:21:08.029 --> 00:21:10.710 emissions. And these models consistently show 00:21:10.710 --> 00:21:13.630 that the extreme ocean warmth needed for rapid 00:21:13.630 --> 00:21:16.569 intensification is far, far more likely in our 00:21:16.569 --> 00:21:20.000 current warming world. Daniel Guilford, another 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:22.200 prominent climate scientist, provides a really 00:21:22.200 --> 00:21:24.500 useful analogy for understanding this whole process. 00:21:25.000 --> 00:21:27.559 He likens hurricanes to car engines needing fuel. 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:30.599 The primary fuel source for these powerful engines 00:21:30.599 --> 00:21:32.819 is the ocean surface heat. Right, makes sense. 00:21:32.920 --> 00:21:34.740 So as the temperature of the ocean surface goes 00:21:34.740 --> 00:21:37.119 up, that simply adds more fuel for these storms 00:21:37.119 --> 00:21:39.680 to utilize, allowing them to intensify more quickly 00:21:39.680 --> 00:21:41.759 and potentially reach higher peak intensities. 00:21:42.079 --> 00:21:44.759 This naturally leads us to ask, just how warm 00:21:44.759 --> 00:21:46.700 are the oceans right now? Yeah, what's the situation? 00:21:46.900 --> 00:21:49.500 Well, the answer is significantly warmer than 00:21:49.500 --> 00:21:52.359 historical averages. For over a century now, 00:21:52.539 --> 00:21:54.599 human emitted greenhouse gases have been accumulating 00:21:54.599 --> 00:21:57.339 in our atmosphere, trapping heat within the planet's 00:21:57.339 --> 00:22:00.779 climate system. 2024, in fact, was unequivocally 00:22:00.779 --> 00:22:02.799 crowned the hottest year on record globally. 00:22:03.579 --> 00:22:06.839 By May of 2024, nearly a quarter of full quarter 00:22:06.839 --> 00:22:09.559 of the world's entire ocean area experienced 00:22:09.559 --> 00:22:12.319 what are called marine heat waves. Essentially 00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:14.920 turning vast stretches of ocean into what some 00:22:14.920 --> 00:22:18.180 experts have described as bathwater. Wow. And 00:22:18.180 --> 00:22:20.059 our Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the main 00:22:20.059 --> 00:22:22.140 development region where hurricanes often form 00:22:22.140 --> 00:22:24.940 and track, it remains anomalously warmer than 00:22:24.940 --> 00:22:28.240 average. This warmth has led forecasters to anticipate 00:22:28.240 --> 00:22:30.539 a busier than usual hurricane season overall, 00:22:31.059 --> 00:22:33.480 and for the storms that do form, a higher potential 00:22:33.480 --> 00:22:35.420 for this kind of rapid intensification we saw 00:22:35.420 --> 00:22:38.240 with Aaron. So warmer oceans mean more fuel for 00:22:38.240 --> 00:22:40.619 intensity. What are the broader impacts of that 00:22:40.619 --> 00:22:42.740 increased fuel supply on storms like air and 00:22:42.740 --> 00:22:44.619 beyond just wind speed? That's a great question 00:22:44.619 --> 00:22:47.460 because the impacts of these warmer oceans extend 00:22:47.460 --> 00:22:50.880 far beyond just the storm's intensity. They also 00:22:50.880 --> 00:22:53.599 mean a greater potential for more rain. Warmer 00:22:53.599 --> 00:22:56.059 air fundamentally has the capacity to hold more 00:22:56.059 --> 00:22:58.880 moisture. It's just basic physics. Right, like 00:22:58.880 --> 00:23:00.799 a bigger sponge. Exactly, like a bigger sponge. 00:23:01.900 --> 00:23:04.099 So hurricanes forming in these hotter, more humid 00:23:04.099 --> 00:23:06.819 conditions can carry a significantly greater 00:23:06.819 --> 00:23:09.819 amount of rain. This leads to more severe freshwater 00:23:09.819 --> 00:23:12.519 flooding once they make landfall or even just 00:23:12.519 --> 00:23:15.960 skirt close to coastal areas. Often it's the 00:23:15.960 --> 00:23:18.779 water. not just the wind, that proves to be the 00:23:18.779 --> 00:23:21.640 deadliest component of these storms. So intensity 00:23:21.640 --> 00:23:24.720 and rainfall potential both increasing? Yes. 00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:26.920 And if we connect this to the broader climate 00:23:26.920 --> 00:23:29.259 picture again, analysis from Climate Central, 00:23:29.720 --> 00:23:32.140 they're a science communication nonprofit specializing 00:23:32.140 --> 00:23:35.180 in synthesizing climate research. Their analysis 00:23:35.180 --> 00:23:37.259 suggests that human -cost climate change made 00:23:37.259 --> 00:23:39.660 the warm water temperature around where air informed 00:23:39.660 --> 00:23:43.059 90 % more likely. 90 % more likely. That's a 00:23:43.059 --> 00:23:45.279 huge increase in probability. It's a very powerful 00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:47.920 attribution finding. They use statistical modeling 00:23:47.920 --> 00:23:50.519 that compares the current conditions to a simulated 00:23:50.519 --> 00:23:53.319 world without human induced warming, and the 00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:56.539 difference is stark. Their early estimate, using 00:23:56.539 --> 00:23:59.539 the same robust statistical model, also found 00:23:59.539 --> 00:24:02.079 that this extra ocean heat could potentially 00:24:02.079 --> 00:24:05.339 drive 50 % greater damage, specifically from 00:24:05.339 --> 00:24:07.299 things like tidal erosion and coastal flooding 00:24:07.299 --> 00:24:10.240 in the affected areas. 50 % more damage? Potentially, 00:24:10.339 --> 00:24:13.680 yes. It's not a vague projection. It's tied to 00:24:13.680 --> 00:24:17.079 the specific, measurable increase in water temperature 00:24:17.079 --> 00:24:19.599 likelihood attributed to climate change. And 00:24:19.599 --> 00:24:21.920 this ties into sea level rise as well, doesn't 00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:24.680 it? Absolutely. It compounds the problem. This 00:24:24.680 --> 00:24:27.559 also includes the exacerbating impact of rising 00:24:27.559 --> 00:24:30.480 sea levels on coastal flooding. As polar regions 00:24:30.480 --> 00:24:33.180 melt and sea levels continue their steady, relentless 00:24:33.180 --> 00:24:35.880 climb due to both melting ice and the thermal 00:24:35.880 --> 00:24:37.859 expansion of the warming ocean waters themselves. 00:24:38.059 --> 00:24:40.420 Right, water expands when it heats up. Exactly. 00:24:40.900 --> 00:24:43.599 So that rising tidal baseline means that any 00:24:43.599 --> 00:24:45.940 coastal flooding caused by storms automatically 00:24:45.940 --> 00:24:48.759 becomes correspondingly larger and reaches further 00:24:48.759 --> 00:24:52.900 inland. To illustrate this, Think back to Hurricane 00:24:52.900 --> 00:24:55.539 Sandy, which devastated parts of the U .S. Northeast 00:24:55.539 --> 00:24:58.299 some years ago. Analyses showed that the floods 00:24:58.299 --> 00:25:00.579 from that storm were four inches deeper than 00:25:00.579 --> 00:25:02.779 they would have been without the sea level rise 00:25:02.779 --> 00:25:04.819 that had already occurred by that time. Four 00:25:04.819 --> 00:25:06.720 inches doesn't sound like a huge amount, but 00:25:06.720 --> 00:25:09.640 it can be critical. As one expert pointed out, 00:25:09.920 --> 00:25:11.880 four inches could easily be the difference between 00:25:11.880 --> 00:25:13.619 the bottom floor of a building being flooded 00:25:13.619 --> 00:25:16.180 catastrophically and remaining completely dry. 00:25:16.380 --> 00:25:18.400 Yeah, the difference between minor inconvenience 00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:21.220 and total loss for a homeowner or business. Precisely. 00:25:21.440 --> 00:25:24.299 It highlights how even seemingly small changes 00:25:24.299 --> 00:25:26.799 in baseline conditions can have massive real 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:29.920 -world consequences during extreme events. And 00:25:29.920 --> 00:25:31.759 finally, let's just quickly revisit something 00:25:31.759 --> 00:25:34.019 Aaron did in its life cycle that contributes 00:25:34.019 --> 00:25:37.619 to its vast size. It underwent an eye wall replacement 00:25:37.619 --> 00:25:39.900 cycle. Right, you mentioned that earlier. Yes. 00:25:40.480 --> 00:25:43.059 This is a complex meteorological term, but basically 00:25:43.059 --> 00:25:45.619 the hurricane grows a second larger eye wall 00:25:45.619 --> 00:25:48.700 around its original inner one. It's quite common 00:25:48.700 --> 00:25:51.849 in very intense hurricanes like Aaron was. Now, 00:25:51.990 --> 00:25:54.210 while this process can sometimes slightly weaken 00:25:54.210 --> 00:25:56.829 the storm's absolute maximum wind speeds for 00:25:56.829 --> 00:25:59.210 a time as the energy gets distributed over a 00:25:59.210 --> 00:26:01.730 wider area, it almost always makes the storm 00:26:01.730 --> 00:26:04.569 significantly larger in overall size. It spreads 00:26:04.569 --> 00:26:07.309 its impactful wind field over a much, much wider 00:26:07.309 --> 00:26:10.049 area. Making it bigger, even if slightly less 00:26:10.049 --> 00:26:12.869 intense at the very core. Exactly. And what's 00:26:12.869 --> 00:26:15.369 interesting, connect back to our theme, is that 00:26:15.369 --> 00:26:17.990 faster intensification, which is directly driven 00:26:17.990 --> 00:26:20.829 by that warm ocean water we've discussed, actually 00:26:20.829 --> 00:26:23.430 makes these eyewall replacement cycles more likely 00:26:23.430 --> 00:26:26.309 to occur. As Jim Costin emphasized earlier, and 00:26:26.309 --> 00:26:28.490 it really bears repeating, all these behaviors 00:26:28.490 --> 00:26:30.650 are ultimately linked to the warm water that 00:26:30.650 --> 00:26:32.670 these storms are sitting on top of. The water 00:26:32.670 --> 00:26:34.890 is warm because the planet is heating up. It's 00:26:34.890 --> 00:26:37.329 a powerful and direct link. It is. A link we 00:26:37.329 --> 00:26:39.569 are seeing play out with remarkable clarity in 00:26:39.569 --> 00:26:43.029 storms like Hurricane Erin. OK, so as air and 00:26:43.029 --> 00:26:45.369 barrels across the Atlantic heading eventually 00:26:45.369 --> 00:26:47.910 for Europe, are there other tropical systems 00:26:47.910 --> 00:26:50.250 out there we should be keeping an eye on? What 00:26:50.250 --> 00:26:52.990 does the immediate future hold for the tropics, 00:26:53.049 --> 00:26:56.069 or are we perhaps due for a bit of a breather 00:26:56.069 --> 00:26:58.630 after such an active period in this major storm? 00:26:59.369 --> 00:27:02.009 Well, we are indeed monitoring two other disturbances 00:27:02.009 --> 00:27:04.009 currently in the Atlantic basin, though it's 00:27:04.009 --> 00:27:06.150 important to stress neither of them currently 00:27:06.150 --> 00:27:08.089 appears to pose a direct threat to the United 00:27:08.089 --> 00:27:11.839 States. The first is a relatively large and frankly 00:27:11.839 --> 00:27:14.799 somewhat disorganized tropical wave that is approaching 00:27:14.799 --> 00:27:16.839 the northeastern Caribbean islands right now. 00:27:17.519 --> 00:27:19.900 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:27:19.900 --> 00:27:23.259 is currently giving this one a 70 % chance of 00:27:23.259 --> 00:27:25.000 eventually developing into a tropical depression 00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:27.500 or tropical storm over the next week or so. It's 00:27:27.500 --> 00:27:29.079 expected to approach the windward and leeward 00:27:29.079 --> 00:27:32.180 islands today, Thursday, and into Friday, bringing 00:27:32.180 --> 00:27:34.500 with it scattered downpours and maybe some gusty 00:27:34.500 --> 00:27:37.200 winds. However, the strong consensus among the 00:27:37.200 --> 00:27:38.839 computer forecast models is that it won't be 00:27:38.839 --> 00:27:40.559 particularly strong when it's in the vicinity 00:27:40.559 --> 00:27:43.440 of those islands tomorrow or Saturday. So that 00:27:43.440 --> 00:27:46.160 mitigates the direct risk there. OK. And after 00:27:46.160 --> 00:27:48.799 it passes the islands? After that, it's most 00:27:48.799 --> 00:27:51.299 likely to take a northward path out into the 00:27:51.299 --> 00:27:53.740 open waters of the Western Atlantic. While it 00:27:53.740 --> 00:27:56.019 may strengthen into a tropical storm over the 00:27:56.019 --> 00:27:58.839 open ocean, there's a strong, almost fall -like 00:27:58.839 --> 00:28:02.380 cold front moving off the U .S. East Coast. And 00:28:02.380 --> 00:28:04.480 its accompanying dip in the jet stream looks 00:28:04.480 --> 00:28:07.099 very likely to scoop this disturbance up and 00:28:07.099 --> 00:28:09.579 direct it well off the U .S. East Coast, possibly 00:28:09.579 --> 00:28:11.900 even east of Bermuda, as it heads harmlessly 00:28:11.900 --> 00:28:15.539 out to sea. So, not a U .S. threat. Good to hear. 00:28:15.700 --> 00:28:17.680 And the second disturbance? The second wave, 00:28:17.720 --> 00:28:20.839 which has been designated as INVEST hashtag 99L, 00:28:20.990 --> 00:28:23.410 by forecasters that invest just means it's being 00:28:23.410 --> 00:28:25.950 investigated for potential development, is located 00:28:25.950 --> 00:28:28.569 far out in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It 00:28:28.569 --> 00:28:30.890 currently has about a 40 % chance of development 00:28:30.890 --> 00:28:33.549 over the next seven days. However, it's facing 00:28:33.549 --> 00:28:35.970 increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions ahead. 00:28:36.410 --> 00:28:38.569 We're talking a significant amount of dry air 00:28:38.569 --> 00:28:41.250 entrainment and unfavorable wind shear. So if 00:28:41.250 --> 00:28:43.369 it doesn't manage to organize itself significantly 00:28:43.369 --> 00:28:45.829 today or tomorrow, its chances of developing 00:28:45.829 --> 00:28:48.210 further are actually quite slim. So likely to 00:28:48.210 --> 00:28:51.240 fizzle. Most likely, yes. In any case, there 00:28:51.240 --> 00:28:54.079 is currently no indication of that system being 00:28:54.079 --> 00:28:56.700 a threat to land. It's most likely to just die 00:28:56.700 --> 00:28:59.940 out over the open tropical Atlantic. If, by some 00:28:59.940 --> 00:29:02.000 really slim chance, it were to overcome these 00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:04.039 odds and become a problem, it would be a very 00:29:04.039 --> 00:29:05.740 long time from now, maybe in the western Caribbean 00:29:05.740 --> 00:29:08.140 or the southern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps nine 00:29:08.140 --> 00:29:10.839 or ten days from now. But that's highly unlikely. 00:29:11.039 --> 00:29:13.440 And then there's one more little area of interest 00:29:13.440 --> 00:29:16.680 on the map today, a non -tropical low pressure 00:29:16.680 --> 00:29:19.140 system lingering on the tail end of an old cold 00:29:19.140 --> 00:29:21.359 front. It has a very short window of time, maybe 00:29:21.359 --> 00:29:24.200 a day or so, to potentially develop into a tropical 00:29:24.200 --> 00:29:27.140 or subtropical depression before it too is swept 00:29:27.140 --> 00:29:29.680 out to sea. Again, posing no threat to land. 00:29:30.200 --> 00:29:32.720 We sometimes call these low odds lemons. Low 00:29:32.720 --> 00:29:34.980 odds lemon. I like that. So it sounds like some 00:29:34.980 --> 00:29:37.519 ongoing activity, but thankfully no immediate 00:29:37.519 --> 00:29:40.059 U .S. threats looming right now. Does this suggest 00:29:40.059 --> 00:29:41.740 a trend for the coming weeks? Are we heading 00:29:41.740 --> 00:29:45.000 into a quieter period? Yeah, that naturally leads 00:29:45.000 --> 00:29:46.660 us to an important question about the coming 00:29:46.660 --> 00:29:49.259 weeks for the broader tropical Atlantic. And 00:29:49.259 --> 00:29:50.960 it does look like we're probably heading into 00:29:50.960 --> 00:29:53.160 a bit of a lull in tropical development across 00:29:53.160 --> 00:29:56.670 the Atlantic basin. I would anticipate a relatively 00:29:56.670 --> 00:30:00.710 quiet stretch for the next 10 to 14 days. It's 00:30:00.710 --> 00:30:02.549 a period that could possibly extend into the 00:30:02.549 --> 00:30:05.470 first week of September. And why is that? What 00:30:05.470 --> 00:30:08.549 causes a low like this? This quiet period is 00:30:08.549 --> 00:30:11.509 primarily expected due to something called subsidence, 00:30:11.789 --> 00:30:14.390 which is essentially large -scale sinking air 00:30:14.390 --> 00:30:16.970 over much of the tropical Atlantic. When air 00:30:16.970 --> 00:30:19.769 sinks like that, it warms up and it dries out. 00:30:20.029 --> 00:30:22.170 And this effectively squashes any attempts at 00:30:22.170 --> 00:30:24.900 storminess. It creates a very unfavorable environment. 00:30:25.220 --> 00:30:27.039 It makes it significantly more difficult for 00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:29.740 tropical storms and hurricanes to form or strengthen. 00:30:29.900 --> 00:30:31.720 It's kind of like having a lid or a cap on the 00:30:31.720 --> 00:30:33.839 atmosphere, preventing the deep thunderstorms, 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:36.259 the convection needed for hurricane formation. 00:30:37.059 --> 00:30:40.559 OK, so a temporary cap on activity, but not necessarily 00:30:40.559 --> 00:30:42.359 the end of the season. Oh, definitely not the 00:30:42.359 --> 00:30:43.900 end of the season. We always have to look ahead. 00:30:44.559 --> 00:30:47.180 And long range models, including the sophisticated 00:30:47.180 --> 00:30:50.480 ECMWF weekly ensembles, they are suggesting that 00:30:50.480 --> 00:30:52.990 the back half of September could feature above 00:30:52.990 --> 00:30:55.049 average activity again, and potentially there 00:30:55.049 --> 00:30:57.190 could be some cause for concern, especially maybe 00:30:57.190 --> 00:30:59.670 in the Gulf of Mexico later in September. So 00:30:59.670 --> 00:31:01.630 it's not a complete all clear for the entire 00:31:01.630 --> 00:31:04.210 season by any means, but a temporary reprieve 00:31:04.210 --> 00:31:06.089 does look like it's on the horizon. That's a 00:31:06.089 --> 00:31:08.069 lot to consider from the intricate mechanics 00:31:08.069 --> 00:31:10.369 of rapid intensification to the global reach 00:31:10.369 --> 00:31:13.009 of a single hurricane like Aaron. We've gone 00:31:13.009 --> 00:31:15.730 deep today into Hurricane Aaron's immense size, 00:31:15.910 --> 00:31:18.250 its far reaching impacts across the eastern seaboard 00:31:18.250 --> 00:31:20.630 and even potentially into Europe, and the critical 00:31:20.630 --> 00:31:23.109 role that warming oceans play in intensifying 00:31:23.109 --> 00:31:25.690 such events and influencing their very structure. 00:31:26.430 --> 00:31:28.849 It's a powerful reminder, isn't it, of the dynamic 00:31:28.849 --> 00:31:31.630 and interconnected nature of weather and climate, 00:31:32.049 --> 00:31:34.809 how what happens far out in the ocean can profoundly 00:31:34.809 --> 00:31:37.430 affect communities thousands of miles away. So 00:31:37.430 --> 00:31:39.049 what does this all mean for you, our listener? 00:31:39.490 --> 00:31:41.829 As we've seen with Erin, the influence of ocean 00:31:41.829 --> 00:31:44.750 temperatures on storm behavior is really undeniable. 00:31:45.049 --> 00:31:47.390 It affects not just its peak intensity, but its 00:31:47.390 --> 00:31:49.710 very structure, its size, its expansive reach. 00:31:50.170 --> 00:31:52.480 How does Understanding these dots to connect 00:31:52.480 --> 00:31:54.779 from the science of rapid intensification to 00:31:54.779 --> 00:31:57.140 the reality of sea level rise, how does that 00:31:57.140 --> 00:31:58.920 change your perspective on weather forecasts 00:31:58.920 --> 00:32:00.619 and what steps might this knowledge inspire you 00:32:00.619 --> 00:32:03.259 to take? Whether that's just staying better informed, 00:32:03.519 --> 00:32:05.599 preparing your home more effectively, or maybe 00:32:05.599 --> 00:32:07.599 thinking about community resilience in a new 00:32:07.599 --> 00:32:10.180 way. It's something to think about. Absolutely. 00:32:10.539 --> 00:32:12.980 Knowledge is most valuable when it's not just 00:32:12.980 --> 00:32:16.000 passively received. but truly understood and 00:32:16.000 --> 00:32:18.579 then applied to our lives and how we view the 00:32:18.579 --> 00:32:20.819 world around us. There's always more to learn, 00:32:20.920 --> 00:32:24.740 always. And consistently considering multiple 00:32:24.740 --> 00:32:26.599 perspectives, especially regarding our changing 00:32:26.599 --> 00:32:29.319 climate, it truly enriches our understanding 00:32:29.319 --> 00:32:31.759 of events like Hurricane Erin and how they fit 00:32:31.759 --> 00:32:34.119 into the broader planetary picture that is constantly 00:32:34.119 --> 00:32:36.920 evolving around us. Well said. Thank you for 00:32:36.920 --> 00:32:39.880 joining us for this in -depth Meteorology Matters 00:32:39.880 --> 00:32:41.900 deep dive. We really hope it's given you a deeper 00:32:41.900 --> 00:32:44.099 understanding of Hurricane Aaron and the complex 00:32:44.099 --> 00:32:46.460 forces at play. For more insights and updates 00:32:46.460 --> 00:32:48.519 from meteorologist Rob Jones, you can follow 00:32:48.519 --> 00:32:50.700 him on Instagram. He's handled as Meteorologist. 00:32:50.920 --> 00:32:53.579 On TikTok, you can find him at TV Meteorologist 00:32:53.579 --> 00:32:55.779 and find him on YouTube by following Rob Jones 00:32:55.779 --> 00:32:58.440 Hurricane. That YouTube channel, Rob Jones Hurricane, 00:32:58.480 --> 00:33:00.700 is also where you can find the Meteorology Matters 00:33:00.700 --> 00:33:03.279 podcast playlist with all our episodes. Until 00:33:03.279 --> 00:33:05.519 next time, stay curious and stay informed.