Okay, let's unpack this. Today, we're embarking
on a deep exploration really into the heart of
a truly massive weather event, a storm that hasn't
just commanded our attention here, but has, well,
quite literally captured global attention with
its staggering scale. Hurricane Aaron. We're
talking about a system so immensely vast. I mean,
its cloud shield already extends a colossal 1
,000 miles. Think about that. Reaching all the
way from the, you know, sun -drenched beaches
of the Bahamas up to the cooler climes of New
England. Just pause for a moment and consider
that scale that's an atmospheric influence covering
more than 15 states. It's an astonishing footprint.
As we speak, the calendar shows us it's Thursday,
August 21st, 2025, and ARIN is currently making
its closest approach to the North Carolina coast.
Our mission for this Meteorology Matters deep
dive isn't just to track its immediate movements.
No, we're here to sort of peel back the layers
of Aaron's current behavior to project its path
and the immediate impacts it will have. And perhaps
most importantly, to meticulously connect the
dots between such powerful, far reaching events
and well, the larger climate picture that is
undeniably shaping our world and the behavior
of these storms. Yeah. And what's particularly
compelling about Aaron, as you've highlighted
so well, is not just its sheer scale. but how
its very characteristics, its immense size, its
rapid intensification, how they reflect these
broader meteorological trends, trends that are
becoming increasingly vital for us to understand.
We're going to be discussing information gleaned
directly from the very latest forecasts, real
-time observations from those incredibly brave
hurricane hunters flying right into the storm,
and of course, meticulous meteorological analysis.
This confluence of data It really allows us to
paint a comprehensive and dynamic picture of
this formidable system. Absolutely. Now that
we've set the stage with Aaron's immense scale,
let's turn to its immediate behavior. What are
the latest observations telling us about its
current state and movement out there? Well, currently,
Aaron is positioned around 34 .2 degrees north
latitude, 72 .1 degrees west longitude. It is
just literally just past its closest point to
the North Carolina coast. It's moving at a pretty
brisk pace northeastward at a clip of 15 knots,
which translates to roughly 17 miles per hour.
And despite having made its closest pass, it
remains a remarkably powerful system. Estimated
maximum sustained winds are still at a formidable
90 knots or about 105 miles per hour. Still a
strong category, too, then. Exactly. Still packing
quite a punch. And we've had critical eyes on
this storm, literally. The Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunters, these, well, intrepid individuals
who fly directly into the They've been providing
invaluable data, haven't they? What did their
last transect through air and reveal? They have
indeed provided crucial insights, yes. On their
last pass, they measured 700 millibar flight
level winds of 100 knots. Now, for some context
for you, 700 millibars is roughly... equivalent
to an altitude of about 10 ,000 feet. And that's
a crucial level for assessing the storm's actual
wind structure. It's often less affected by surface
friction than measurements closer to the ocean.
So it gives us a clear, more representative picture
of its inner core strength and how winds are
distributed within the storm itself. They also
found that the central pressure had risen slightly
to 945 millibars. Okay, and a rising pressure
means? Well, in simple terms, a hurricane's strength
is inversely proportional to its central pressure.
So the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
So this slight increase in pressure, while it
might seem small, it's a subtle but important
indicator. It suggests Aaron's peak intensity
may have passed, or at least it's starting a
slow decline, maybe undergoing some structural
reorganization. Visually, the low -level center
of the storm is still deeply embedded beneath
a vast 90 nautical mile central dense overcast.
And this isn't just a visual detail. The central
dense overcast, it refers to the tightly packed
circular cloud shield of deep convective clouds
that typically surrounds the eye of a mature
hurricane. It tells meteorologists that the storm's
engine room, where all the energy is being drawn
up from the ocean, is vast and incredibly well
established. And that contributes significantly
to its enormous size and widespread impacts,
even far from the immediate core. However, we're
also observing outer convective bands stretching
a couple hundred miles away, and importantly,
some recent erosion of clouds in the southwestern
part of the circulation. Right. So we have the
slight rise in pressure, the satellite estimates
perhaps being a bit lower, and this cloud erosion
you mentioned. What does that collection of observations
tell you about Aaron's immediate future? Well,
if we connect this to the broader meteorological
picture, that slight rise in central pressure,
combined with some of the satellite intensity
estimates being a little lower. And yes, the
erosion of clouds in the southwestern part, it
all points directly to an increase in what we
call wind shear. Wind shear, OK. For you, our
listeners, increasing shear basically means that
the wind speeds and directions are changing rapidly
with height in the atmosphere around the storm.
Imagine a tall perfectly formed spinning top,
right? If you suddenly blew on it from different
directions and at different heights, it would
start to wobble, tilt. Right, lose its balance.
Exactly. It eventually loses its tight upright
spin. That's essentially what shear does to a
hurricane. It can really tear at a hurricane
structure, making it less organized and generally
less able to intensify further or even causing
it to weaken. Okay, that makes sense. And what
about its path? Where is it headed now? As for
its future track, the forecast reasoning remains
quite consistent among the various weather models,
which is good. Aaron is expected to continue
accelerating, making a pretty significant turn
northeastward by Friday. This change in direction
is because it's becoming increasingly embedded
within the mid -latitude westerlies. Essentially,
it's getting caught in those fast -moving west
-to -east atmospheric currents that exist outside
the tropics. So it gets swept along, basically?
Pretty much. These powerful winds will propel
it rapidly eastward across the Atlantic. The
latest track forecast actually shows Aaron racing
across the North Atlantic, with its forward speed
projected to peak at a rather brisk 35 knots
that's around 40 miles per hour in about 72 hours
from now. Wow, really moving. This naturally
leads us to ask, will it get stronger? Given
what you just described about the shear, it sounds
like that window might be closing. You're absolutely
right to ask that. The critical query then becomes,
will it get stronger? And the answer, fortunately,
seems to be that significant strengthening isn't
expected. The atmosphere surrounding Aaron is
becoming increasingly stable, and with that increasing
shear we just discussed, the window for any further
intensification is rapidly closing. We're looking
at a period of slow weakening over the next 36
hours or so. which will then likely transition
into a more steady, gradual, weakening trend
after that time. That's genuinely good news.
It is. Good news for anyone who might have been
concerned about it regaining its former Category
5 intensity. Its energy source is shifting, and
its structure is just becoming less favorable
for pure tropical strength. Okay, so what does
this all mean for those of you along the coast?
Let's turn our attention to the key messages
directly from the forecasters. Because despite
Aaron beginning to pull away from the immediate
U .S. coastline, its sheer, immense size means
its influence is still incredibly far -reaching
and vast. General warnings are currently in effect
for life -threatening surf and dangerously powerful
rip currents along beaches across a massive area.
This includes the Bahamas, much of the U .S.
East Coast, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. these
dangerous conditions. They're expected to persist
not just for hours, but for several days. It
is absolutely crucial for your safety to follow
advice from lifeguards and local authorities.
Pay immediate attention to any beach warning
flags you see. Seriously. And this isn't just
about direct hits, it's really about the widespread
impact of a truly gigantic storm system. Air
in sheer size is precisely what makes it such
a serious threat, even when it's hundreds of
miles offshore. Its tropical storm force wind
field alone extends an astonishing 300 miles
from its center. And the high energy, dangerous
ocean waves it generates, they're reaching over
1 ,500 miles from the storm's core. That stretches
from Florida all the way up to Newfoundland,
Canada. That's why we're seeing an unprecedented
15 states from Florida clear up to Maine, currently
under some form of alert for hazardous coastal
conditions. The geographic influence is just
remarkable. It really is. And delving deeper
into this, what's particularly compelling here
is how the storm's massive size translates into
very real, localized, and incredibly serious
threats on the ground. Or, well, on the coast.
Let's maybe break this down into specific regional
impacts, connecting the storm's characteristics
to the observed and anticipated effects. Good
idea. Let's start with North Carolina, where
it just made its closest approach. Right. For
North Carolina, specifically the vulnerable outer
banks, we are currently seeing ongoing storm
surge, flooding and tropical storm conditions
that will continue throughout today and into
the evening. This storm surge, combined with
truly large, powerful waves, is expected to lead
to significant beach erosion and overwash. Imagine
living on Hatteras Island, where Highway 12,
your literal lifeline. It's not just flooded,
but overwashed, meaning layers of sand and debris
are now covering the road, making it completely
impassable in places. Wow, that's isolation right
there. Exactly. It isolates communities, complicates
any emergency efforts, and makes travel impossible
for residents. Evacuation orders, in fact, remain
firmly in place for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands
for good reason. We're talking about anticipated
wind gusts of 40 to 60 miles per hour in the
Outer Banks combined with up to four feet of
storm surge. And waves. Waves that could reach
up to 20 feet 20 feet. It's hard to even visualize
the power of that It's immense like two -story
buildings collapsing onto the shore with every
wave That's the kind of destructive force we're
discussing and the highest tides which will exacerbate
these effects They're expected this evening and
will continue through Saturday So it's prolonged
exposure and it's important to note the severity
the governor of North Carolina has already declared
a state of emergency They're taking this very
seriously understandably. So okay moving north,
Virginia and Maryland Yes, zooming out, the broader
implications extend north to Virginia and Maryland.
Virginia is also experiencing tropical storm
conditions. Wind gusts to tropical storm forests
are likely along portions of the U .S. Mid -Atlantic
coast. We are anticipating moderate to even major
coastal flooding, especially tonight, stretching
from Virginia Beach up to Ocean City, Maryland.
For residents and businesses in these coastal
areas, this translates to the very real potential
for numerous road closures and significant inundation
of homes of businesses near the shore. Beyond
the flooding, you've got large, pounding waves
of 10 to 14 feet, strong rip currents that can
pull even experienced swimmers out to sea. Very
dangerous. Extremely. And significant beach erosion,
too. In the Chesapeake Bay area, that vast tidal
estuary from Norfolk all the way up to Annapolis,
Maryland. Water levels could be notably higher
than normal, up to three feet higher. That could
inundate low -lying coastal areas there. We could
even see up to a half foot of flooding along
the tidal Potomac River, potentially reaching
into parts of Washington, D .C.'s waterfront.
The National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia,
they put it very starkly in their warning. I
should quote this, dangerous shore break can
throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the
bottom causing neck and back injuries. Oof. That
is incredibly vivid and sobering. It really underscores
that even without direct landfall, these impacts
are life -altering, potentially deadly. Absolutely.
It's not just about the storm center. So how
far north will these hazardous impacts really
reach with significant force? What can communities
in Delaware and New Jersey expect? Right. The
critical query then becomes, how far north do
these serious impacts extend? Moving into Delaware
and New Jersey, we're seeing the potential for
one to two feet of water inundating coastal and
bayside communities along with tidal waterways
that could make numerous roads impassable and
severely restrict access. Dangerous surf is expected
to slam the coastline, particularly today, Thursday,
bringing immense wave energy. The worst conditions
will likely coincide with the high tide this
evening, though hazardous conditions are certainly
expected to continue right through Friday. The
National Weather Service office in Mount Holly,
New Jersey, had a particularly memorable phrase
for it. They just said, the sea will be quite
angry. Quite angry. That says a lot. It does.
It signifies immense destructive wave power that
can reshape shorelines and engage anyone too
close to the water. It's not just a poetic description.
Understood. And even further north, New York,
New England. Even further north, yes. Reaching
into New York and New England, from Staten Island
all the way out to Montauk, New York, and then
up to Nantucket, Massachusetts. High surf advisories
and coastal flood warnings are firmly in effect.
Here too, the primary risk is for life -threatening
swimming and surfing conditions. Those powerful
rip currents that act like invisible rivers pulling
you out. And localized beach erosion, which can
undermine coastal structures and dunes. Wave
heights and energy will peak later today, Thursday
and into Friday. We could see waves of 16 feet
potentially hitting the south shore of Long Island.
16 feet on Long Island's south shore? That's
significant erosion potential. Huge potential.
Think of a two -story house collapsing onto the
beach repeatedly. That's the kind of energy.
It could cause significant dune erosion and coastal
flooding, with maybe up to two feet of water
inundating vulnerable waterfront areas. Further
up the coast, say from Cape Cod, Massachusetts
up to Eastport, Maine, waves could reach up to
18 feet at the southern end of that stretch.
gradually decreasing to around 10 feet toward
the northern end, but still bringing similar
dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
beach erosion issues. And it doesn't stop there,
does it? You mentioned its reach beyond the U
.S. No, it really doesn't. Aaron's immense reach
extends far beyond the U .S. mainland, truly
demonstrating its global influence. Bermuda,
for instance, will experience dangerous 10 to
20 -foot waves as Aaron passes about 300 to 400
miles to their west and north. There's even the
potential for rogue waves those exceptionally
large unexpected waves that seem to appear out
of nowhere Maybe reaching up to 30 feet 30 feet.
That's terrifying. It's like a three -story building
water crashing down unbelievable force. Squalls
of heavy rain and strong tropical storm force
winds are also expected for Bermuda from today,
Thursday, into early Friday. And for Atlantic
Canada, rough and dangerous seas are anticipated
along the southern coastlines of Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland from Friday into Saturday. Gusts
to gale force are possible along the coast of
Nova Scotia on Friday, and then the Avalon Peninsula
of Newfoundland on Saturday. This storm's influence
truly spans a massive section of the North Atlantic,
affecting countless communities even without
making a direct landfall anywhere else from here
on out. So Aaron is a truly massive storm as
we've detailed, but it's also evolving and quite
rapidly into something fundamentally different.
What's next for it? Where is it heading beyond
our shores? This is where we start talking about
its grand transition, right? Moving from a fully
tropical system to a post -tropical one. That's
exactly right. The official forecast has in fact
moved up Aaron's transition to a post -tropical
cyclone. They're now calling for it at 60 hours
from now, though some of the very latest guidance
based on the storm's current characteristics
and the environment indicates this could happen
even sooner, perhaps within, say, 36 to 48 hours.
This is a crucial shift in its identity, how
it gets its energy. Let's look at some key points
from the forecast positions and maximum winds
just to trace its journey across the Atlantic.
At 5 a .m. Eastern Daylight Time today, Thursday,
August 21st, Aaron was at 34 .2 north, 72 .1
west, still sporting those powerful 90 knots
or 105 miles per hour winds. But by 60 hours
from now, so that's Saturday evening, it's projected
to be way out at 43 .6 north, 48 .7 west, winds
dropping to 65 knots or 75 miles per hour. miles
per hour and that's the point it will be formally
classified as post tropical or extra tropical
correct correct that's the marker okay then by
72 hours early Sunday it's forecast to be at
forty six point seven north forty point two west
still a substantial system with 60 knots or 70
miles per hour winds And even way out at 120
hours, that's next Tuesday, it's expected to
be near 56 .8 north, 21 .7 west, still with 45
knots or 50 miles per hour winds. Still a significant
force. It really is. That trajectory shows it
literally crossing the entire Atlantic basin.
It's quite a journey. And what's particularly
fascinating here, what the models are showing,
is that even as Aaron loses his tropical core
and undergoes this post -tropical transformation,
global weather models like the GFS and the European
ECMWH, they're consistently trending toward keeping
it remarkable. large and strong as it continues
its rapid journey across the North Atlantic.
So explain that extratropical transition a bit
more. It loses its tropical heart but doesn't
just fizzle out. Exactly. For our listeners,
extra -tropical transition means the storm loses
its warm, symmetric tropical core, which relies
entirely on warm ocean waters for its energy.
Instead, it essentially merges with a separate
mid -latitude weather system. It starts drawing
its energy now from these stark temperature differences
found in the atmosphere outside the tropics'
baroclinic energy, we call it, rather than just
from ocean heat. But this doesn't necessarily
mean it weakens significantly right away. In
fact, its wind field can actually expand dramatically
during this process. It could become an even
more sprawling and impactful system covering
a much wider area. Interesting. So it changes
character but not necessarily loses all its punch.
Precisely. In fact, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has adjusted
its wind radii and intensity forecasts upward
for this post -tropical phase. That indicates
it will continue to be a substantial system.
capable of generating significant impacts across
a very wide swath of ocean and eventually land.
And if we connect this to the broader global
picture, the remnants of Aaron will be scooped
up and carried by the powerful jet stream, those
fast moving rivers of air high in the atmosphere.
They'll carry it straight across the Atlantic,
heading directly toward Western Europe early
next week. We're talking Monday and Tuesday specifically.
Even as a post -tropical system, it's still expected
to pack a considerable punch. It'll bring a notable
risk of gusty, potentially damaging winds and
large, dangerous waves, particularly to Ireland
and Britain. Coastal communities there will definitely
need to prepare for its arrival. That's an absolutely
astonishing journey for one storm system. But
this raises an important question. How exactly
did it get so big in the first place? It's not
just powerful. It's geographically immense. It's
a truly remarkable transformation and a crucial
aspect of understanding Aaron. It really does
raise that question. How did it get so big? Aaron
began as a more tightly coiled, albeit still
incredibly powerful, category five storm. But
since then, Its wind field has expanded to be
more than, get this, 12 times larger than it
was at its tropical peak intensity. 12 times
larger. That's incredible. It really is. Think
about that for a moment. It's like a small, intense
vortex suddenly expanding its influence to cover
a massive area. Currently, hurricane force winds
extend a substantial 105 miles out from the center,
and tropical storm force winds reach out an astounding
325 miles from the center in some directions.
This massive expansion is exactly why its impacts
are so far -reaching. It's why we're seeing hazardous
conditions so far from the storm's core, even
when it's hundreds of miles away from land. It's
a testament to the storm's ability to reorganize
and expand its influence, a characteristic often
linked, actually, to these rapid intensification
events we saw earlier. Okay, this journey into
Aaron's life cycle, from its rapid intensification
to its massive size and these far -reaching impacts,
it brings us to an even bigger, more profound
question, doesn't it? How does the storm intensify
so rapidly? How does it become so massive? And
why does it have such far -reaching influences
across our planet? This is where climate science
truly comes into play and where the dots, as
you said, begin to connect very clearly. Think
about this again. Overnight last Friday, Hurricane
Aaron ratcheted up from a Category 1 to a Category
5 storm. That made it one of the top five most
quickly intensifying hurricanes on record. Its
wind speeds increased by nearly 85 miles per
hour in just 24 hours, peaking at an incredible
161 miles per hour. This kind of explosive growth
is what meteorologists call rapid intensification,
and it's a phenomenon we seem to be seeing more
and more of. And what's critically important
here, what's truly fascinating, is how directly
these rapid intensification events are being
linked to global warming. As Jim Cawson, a renowned
hurricane specialist and climate scientist, formerly
with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
put it so succinctly, and I think it's worth
quoting again, it's a very easy set of dots to
connect, pointing to a clear human fingerprint
on these types of events. A human fingerprint?
That's a strong statement. It is. He's telling
us that the underlying conditions of our planet
are changing in ways that make such explosive
growth not just possible. but increasingly probable.
Scientists identify this human fingerprint by
using sophisticated climate models. They compare
what happened in reality with simulations of
a world without human -caused greenhouse gas
emissions. And these models consistently show
that the extreme ocean warmth needed for rapid
intensification is far, far more likely in our
current warming world. Daniel Guilford, another
prominent climate scientist, provides a really
useful analogy for understanding this whole process.
He likens hurricanes to car engines needing fuel.
The primary fuel source for these powerful engines
is the ocean surface heat. Right, makes sense.
So as the temperature of the ocean surface goes
up, that simply adds more fuel for these storms
to utilize, allowing them to intensify more quickly
and potentially reach higher peak intensities.
This naturally leads us to ask, just how warm
are the oceans right now? Yeah, what's the situation?
Well, the answer is significantly warmer than
historical averages. For over a century now,
human emitted greenhouse gases have been accumulating
in our atmosphere, trapping heat within the planet's
climate system. 2024, in fact, was unequivocally
crowned the hottest year on record globally.
By May of 2024, nearly a quarter of full quarter
of the world's entire ocean area experienced
what are called marine heat waves. Essentially
turning vast stretches of ocean into what some
experts have described as bathwater. Wow. And
our Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the main
development region where hurricanes often form
and track, it remains anomalously warmer than
average. This warmth has led forecasters to anticipate
a busier than usual hurricane season overall,
and for the storms that do form, a higher potential
for this kind of rapid intensification we saw
with Aaron. So warmer oceans mean more fuel for
intensity. What are the broader impacts of that
increased fuel supply on storms like air and
beyond just wind speed? That's a great question
because the impacts of these warmer oceans extend
far beyond just the storm's intensity. They also
mean a greater potential for more rain. Warmer
air fundamentally has the capacity to hold more
moisture. It's just basic physics. Right, like
a bigger sponge. Exactly, like a bigger sponge.
So hurricanes forming in these hotter, more humid
conditions can carry a significantly greater
amount of rain. This leads to more severe freshwater
flooding once they make landfall or even just
skirt close to coastal areas. Often it's the
water. not just the wind, that proves to be the
deadliest component of these storms. So intensity
and rainfall potential both increasing? Yes.
And if we connect this to the broader climate
picture again, analysis from Climate Central,
they're a science communication nonprofit specializing
in synthesizing climate research. Their analysis
suggests that human -cost climate change made
the warm water temperature around where air informed
90 % more likely. 90 % more likely. That's a
huge increase in probability. It's a very powerful
attribution finding. They use statistical modeling
that compares the current conditions to a simulated
world without human induced warming, and the
difference is stark. Their early estimate, using
the same robust statistical model, also found
that this extra ocean heat could potentially
drive 50 % greater damage, specifically from
things like tidal erosion and coastal flooding
in the affected areas. 50 % more damage? Potentially,
yes. It's not a vague projection. It's tied to
the specific, measurable increase in water temperature
likelihood attributed to climate change. And
this ties into sea level rise as well, doesn't
it? Absolutely. It compounds the problem. This
also includes the exacerbating impact of rising
sea levels on coastal flooding. As polar regions
melt and sea levels continue their steady, relentless
climb due to both melting ice and the thermal
expansion of the warming ocean waters themselves.
Right, water expands when it heats up. Exactly.
So that rising tidal baseline means that any
coastal flooding caused by storms automatically
becomes correspondingly larger and reaches further
inland. To illustrate this, Think back to Hurricane
Sandy, which devastated parts of the U .S. Northeast
some years ago. Analyses showed that the floods
from that storm were four inches deeper than
they would have been without the sea level rise
that had already occurred by that time. Four
inches doesn't sound like a huge amount, but
it can be critical. As one expert pointed out,
four inches could easily be the difference between
the bottom floor of a building being flooded
catastrophically and remaining completely dry.
Yeah, the difference between minor inconvenience
and total loss for a homeowner or business. Precisely.
It highlights how even seemingly small changes
in baseline conditions can have massive real
-world consequences during extreme events. And
finally, let's just quickly revisit something
Aaron did in its life cycle that contributes
to its vast size. It underwent an eye wall replacement
cycle. Right, you mentioned that earlier. Yes.
This is a complex meteorological term, but basically
the hurricane grows a second larger eye wall
around its original inner one. It's quite common
in very intense hurricanes like Aaron was. Now,
while this process can sometimes slightly weaken
the storm's absolute maximum wind speeds for
a time as the energy gets distributed over a
wider area, it almost always makes the storm
significantly larger in overall size. It spreads
its impactful wind field over a much, much wider
area. Making it bigger, even if slightly less
intense at the very core. Exactly. And what's
interesting, connect back to our theme, is that
faster intensification, which is directly driven
by that warm ocean water we've discussed, actually
makes these eyewall replacement cycles more likely
to occur. As Jim Costin emphasized earlier, and
it really bears repeating, all these behaviors
are ultimately linked to the warm water that
these storms are sitting on top of. The water
is warm because the planet is heating up. It's
a powerful and direct link. It is. A link we
are seeing play out with remarkable clarity in
storms like Hurricane Erin. OK, so as air and
barrels across the Atlantic heading eventually
for Europe, are there other tropical systems
out there we should be keeping an eye on? What
does the immediate future hold for the tropics,
or are we perhaps due for a bit of a breather
after such an active period in this major storm?
Well, we are indeed monitoring two other disturbances
currently in the Atlantic basin, though it's
important to stress neither of them currently
appears to pose a direct threat to the United
States. The first is a relatively large and frankly
somewhat disorganized tropical wave that is approaching
the northeastern Caribbean islands right now.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
is currently giving this one a 70 % chance of
eventually developing into a tropical depression
or tropical storm over the next week or so. It's
expected to approach the windward and leeward
islands today, Thursday, and into Friday, bringing
with it scattered downpours and maybe some gusty
winds. However, the strong consensus among the
computer forecast models is that it won't be
particularly strong when it's in the vicinity
of those islands tomorrow or Saturday. So that
mitigates the direct risk there. OK. And after
it passes the islands? After that, it's most
likely to take a northward path out into the
open waters of the Western Atlantic. While it
may strengthen into a tropical storm over the
open ocean, there's a strong, almost fall -like
cold front moving off the U .S. East Coast. And
its accompanying dip in the jet stream looks
very likely to scoop this disturbance up and
direct it well off the U .S. East Coast, possibly
even east of Bermuda, as it heads harmlessly
out to sea. So, not a U .S. threat. Good to hear.
And the second disturbance? The second wave,
which has been designated as INVEST hashtag 99L,
by forecasters that invest just means it's being
investigated for potential development, is located
far out in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It
currently has about a 40 % chance of development
over the next seven days. However, it's facing
increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions ahead.
We're talking a significant amount of dry air
entrainment and unfavorable wind shear. So if
it doesn't manage to organize itself significantly
today or tomorrow, its chances of developing
further are actually quite slim. So likely to
fizzle. Most likely, yes. In any case, there
is currently no indication of that system being
a threat to land. It's most likely to just die
out over the open tropical Atlantic. If, by some
really slim chance, it were to overcome these
odds and become a problem, it would be a very
long time from now, maybe in the western Caribbean
or the southern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps nine
or ten days from now. But that's highly unlikely.
And then there's one more little area of interest
on the map today, a non -tropical low pressure
system lingering on the tail end of an old cold
front. It has a very short window of time, maybe
a day or so, to potentially develop into a tropical
or subtropical depression before it too is swept
out to sea. Again, posing no threat to land.
We sometimes call these low odds lemons. Low
odds lemon. I like that. So it sounds like some
ongoing activity, but thankfully no immediate
U .S. threats looming right now. Does this suggest
a trend for the coming weeks? Are we heading
into a quieter period? Yeah, that naturally leads
us to an important question about the coming
weeks for the broader tropical Atlantic. And
it does look like we're probably heading into
a bit of a lull in tropical development across
the Atlantic basin. I would anticipate a relatively
quiet stretch for the next 10 to 14 days. It's
a period that could possibly extend into the
first week of September. And why is that? What
causes a low like this? This quiet period is
primarily expected due to something called subsidence,
which is essentially large -scale sinking air
over much of the tropical Atlantic. When air
sinks like that, it warms up and it dries out.
And this effectively squashes any attempts at
storminess. It creates a very unfavorable environment.
It makes it significantly more difficult for
tropical storms and hurricanes to form or strengthen.
It's kind of like having a lid or a cap on the
atmosphere, preventing the deep thunderstorms,
the convection needed for hurricane formation.
OK, so a temporary cap on activity, but not necessarily
the end of the season. Oh, definitely not the
end of the season. We always have to look ahead.
And long range models, including the sophisticated
ECMWF weekly ensembles, they are suggesting that
the back half of September could feature above
average activity again, and potentially there
could be some cause for concern, especially maybe
in the Gulf of Mexico later in September. So
it's not a complete all clear for the entire
season by any means, but a temporary reprieve
does look like it's on the horizon. That's a
lot to consider from the intricate mechanics
of rapid intensification to the global reach
of a single hurricane like Aaron. We've gone
deep today into Hurricane Aaron's immense size,
its far reaching impacts across the eastern seaboard
and even potentially into Europe, and the critical
role that warming oceans play in intensifying
such events and influencing their very structure.
It's a powerful reminder, isn't it, of the dynamic
and interconnected nature of weather and climate,
how what happens far out in the ocean can profoundly
affect communities thousands of miles away. So
what does this all mean for you, our listener?
As we've seen with Erin, the influence of ocean
temperatures on storm behavior is really undeniable.
It affects not just its peak intensity, but its
very structure, its size, its expansive reach.
How does Understanding these dots to connect
from the science of rapid intensification to
the reality of sea level rise, how does that
change your perspective on weather forecasts
and what steps might this knowledge inspire you
to take? Whether that's just staying better informed,
preparing your home more effectively, or maybe
thinking about community resilience in a new
way. It's something to think about. Absolutely.
Knowledge is most valuable when it's not just
passively received. but truly understood and
then applied to our lives and how we view the
world around us. There's always more to learn,
always. And consistently considering multiple
perspectives, especially regarding our changing
climate, it truly enriches our understanding
of events like Hurricane Erin and how they fit
into the broader planetary picture that is constantly
evolving around us. Well said. Thank you for
joining us for this in -depth Meteorology Matters
deep dive. We really hope it's given you a deeper
understanding of Hurricane Aaron and the complex
forces at play. For more insights and updates
from meteorologist Rob Jones, you can follow
him on Instagram. He's handled as Meteorologist.
On TikTok, you can find him at TV Meteorologist
and find him on YouTube by following Rob Jones
Hurricane. That YouTube channel, Rob Jones Hurricane,
is also where you can find the Meteorology Matters
podcast playlist with all our episodes. Until
next time, stay curious and stay informed.