Welcome to the Meteorology Matters podcast. We're
the place where we take a closer look at the
powerful forces shaping our weather and really
try to bring you the most important insights
without all the jargon. That's the goal. Today,
we're diving deep into the Atlantic hurricane
season. We're focusing on a pretty significant
system that's, well, it's on everyone's radar
right now, Hurricane Aaron. Yeah, and we'll also
touch on a couple of other tropical waves that
are, you know, just getting started out there.
Our mission today is really to unpack the very
latest data, help you understand what it means
for conditions along the coast, and just give
you the knowledge you need to stay well -informed.
And it's a crucial time of year for this stuff.
Absolutely. And with us, as always, is our expert
guide to this complex world of weather. Great
to be here. Lots to talk about today. Definitely.
Now, before we jump in, If you want to stay even
more informed, maybe get some real -time updates
from a trusted voice, make sure you follow meteorologist
Rob Jones. Oh yeah, Rob's excellent. On Instagram,
his handle is super easy, it's just meteorologist.
Simple enough. And on TikTok, you can find him
at TV meteorologist. Got it. And for our YouTube
listeners, follow Rob Jones Hurricane. That's
where you'll also find the entire Meteorology
Matters podcast playlist, actually. Oh, handy.
Yeah. You won't want to miss his live updates,
especially with active systems like Aaron out
there. No, definitely not. And the information
we're about to discuss today, it's really vital
for anyone in coastal areas or, you know, even
if you just have interests there. Right. We'll
break down what's happening, why it matters and
what to keep an eye on. OK, let's get right into
it then with Hurricane Aaron. It's currently
the most active system out there, the one demanding
the most attention. What's the absolute latest
as of this Tuesday, August 19th? OK, so as of
2 .00 p .m. Eastern Daylight Time today, the
National Hurricane Center in Miami is issuing
regular advisories on Hurricane Aaron. Its current
position puts it a couple hundred miles to the
northeast of the southeast Bahamas. OK, so still
offshore. But definitely relevant. Definitely
relevant. And it's an active system, meaning
continuous monitoring, constant updates are being
issued. As new data comes in, they're watching
it very, very closely. So what does this hurricane
look like up close? You hear about these Hurricane
Hunter flights. What are those vital Air Force
reports telling us? They fly right into it, right?
They do, yeah. It's incredible work. And what's
fascinating here is the complexity of Aaron's
Structure right now the cloud pattern continues
to be disrupted by vertical wind shear. OK. Explain
shear force again quickly. Sure. It's basically
winds blowing in different directions or at different
speeds at different heights in the atmosphere.
Imagine it like trying to build a tower of blocks
when the wind keeps changing direction at each
level. Right. It kind of tilts it or tears it
apart. Exactly. It tears at the storm structure.
And this shear is leaving the low level center,
the actual core circulation near the surface,
situated near the northwestern edge of the main
area of deep convection. So the engine isn't
quite under the main thunderstorm activity. Pretty
much, yeah. That's a good way to put it. It's
offset. However, even with that disruption, there
are still well -defined convective banding features,
mostly over the eastern semicircle. OK, so what
are those bands? Those are like, uh... curved
lines of really intense thunderstorms spiraling
inwards. Their presence tells us there's still
organized activity, still some power there, despite
the sheer. Gotcha. And the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
have also reported something interesting. The
central pressure has actually risen. compared
to earlier this morning. Risen. Doesn't lower
pressure usually mean stronger? Generally, yes.
Lower pressure, stronger storm. So a rise usually
suggests some weakening, or at least not strengthening.
The official advisory intensity is set at 90
knots, which translates to 105 miles per hour.
So a solid category two. Still very strong. Oh,
absolutely. But it's worth noting that the actual
wind observations from the hurricane hunters
suggest this intensity estimate might be a little
on the high side. It just highlights the challenge.
Trying to get a precise measurement in such a
dynamic, somewhat disorganized system is really,
really tricky. Yeah, I can imagine. It's not
just one simple number. Not at all. OK. And we're
hearing a lot about air and growing in size.
How significant is this? And what does it really
mean for its power, its potential impact? Because
that sounds almost more concerning than just
the wind speed number. This raises a really,
really important point about how we perceive
hurricane danger. We often fixate on that category
number, right? The Saffir -Simpson scale. Right,
cat 1, cat 2, cat 3. Exactly. But the storm size,
its actual diameter, is just as critical, maybe
even more so sometimes, especially for things
like storm surge and coastal flooding. OK. So
while Aaron's top winds have actually weakened
slightly down to that cat 2 level from where
they were, The system itself is dramatically
growing in size. How dramatically? It's already
twice as large as it was just a few days ago.
Wow. Twice the size. Yep. And the forecast is
for it to become one of the largest major hurricanes
that's category three or stronger on record in
terms of physical size. One of the largest major
hurricanes ever, size -wise. Size -wise, yeah.
By Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast shows
the breadth of its tropical storm winds. That's
winds of 39 miles per hour or stronger, reaching
over 525 miles across. 500 miles. That's enormous.
It's hard to even picture. It is. To put that
in perspective, this would make Aaron the largest
major hurricane since Fiona back in September
2022. And get this, it would be only the sixth
major hurricane to grow to such a colossal size
this whole century. Only the sixth this century?
That's rare. Very rare. And here's the key takeaway.
That huge increase in the storm's diameter more
than makes up for the slight decrease in peak
wind speed when you think about the total energy
the storm transfers to the ocean. Okay, how does
that work? Well, a larger storm pushes a much
larger volume of water over a much wider area.
So it creates a more extensive impact zone. The
storm surge potential is greater over a longer
stretch of coast. The waves are generated over
a larger fetch. It's just a bigger footprint
of danger. So size matters, maybe even more than
peak intensity in some ways? For widespread coastal
impacts like surge and erosion, absolutely. It's
about the total energy, not just the peak wind
in one tiny spot near the eye. OK, that really
reframes the threat. So what's the expected path
for Aaron? Where is this massive system headed,
and how is its intensity expected to evolve,
considering all these complex factors? Right
now, its initial motion is a bit faster, moving
northwest at about 8 knots, roughly 9 miles per
hour. The forecast track shows Aaron is expected
to make a turn northward. It'll curve around
the western edge of a big high pressure system,
a subtropical anti -cyclone, that's centered
southeast of Bermuda. It's like a steering current
pushing it north. Exactly. That high pressure
acts like a barrier, steering the storm around
it. Then, later in the forecast period, the system
should turn more towards the northeast, and it
should pick up some forward speed as it gets
caught up in the mid -latitude west release.
Those are the winds that usually push storms
out to sea. Generally, yes. The prevailing west
to east flow higher up in the atmosphere. The
good news... is that there haven't been significant
shifts or big changes in the National Hurricane
Center's forecast track recently. Okay, good.
Consistency is helpful. It is. And the official
forecast track is very close to the latest dynamical
model consensus, meaning most of these sophisticated
computer models agree on the general path. that
gives us relatively high confidence in where
it's generally headed. Okay, that's the track.
What about the intensity? You said it was tricky.
Yeah, predicting its intensity is somewhat problematic.
It's a real challenge right now. Why is that?
Well, given its current messy look, you know,
the disorganization from the shear, you might
be hesitant to forecast it getting much stronger.
Right, it doesn't look primed to intensify. Exactly.
But the dynamical models, the complex ones, they're
showing increasingly favorable conditions developing
above the storm. Specifically, more anti -cyclonic
upper -level flow. Okay, meaning? Think of it
like the storm's exhaust system. Good outflow
aloft, like a well -ventilated chimney, allows
the storm to breathe better. pull in more warm,
moist air at the surface, and potentially strengthen.
I see. Better ventilation. Right. And those same
models are also showing a significant decrease
in that vertical wind shear that's been bothering
it. Ah, so the thing tearing it apart might ease
up. Exactly. So if the shear weakens and the
outflow improves... It could re -strengthen.
It could. Therefore, the official forecast from
the National Hurricane Center does show a bit
of re -strengthening over the next 36 hours or
so. How much? Potentially reaching 95 knots,
which is about 110 miles per hour. Still a strong
category 2, maybe flirting with cat 3. Okay.
Now, this forecast is a little higher than the
average model consensus, but it's actually below
some other guidance like the statistical models.
So still some uncertainty, but leaning towards
maintaining strength or slightly increasing.
That's the best way to put it. There's still
a range of possibilities. But the core of the
storm, the part with the strongest winds, there's
high confidence it will pass somewhere between
North Carolina and Bermuda. OK, between NC and
Bermuda. That's key. Yes. And it's expected to
move fairly slowly through the first half of
this week. Slow is bad for coastal impacts, right?
More time for waves and surge. Definitely. A
longer duration of impact than it should accelerate
out to sea on Friday and Saturday. OK, this is
where it gets really critical for you, our listener,
especially if you're anywhere near the East Coast.
What are the immediate and the most widespread
dangers we need to be aware of from this massive
hurricane Aaron? The number one most immediate
and most widespread danger is life -threatening
surf and rip currents. Life -threatening. Absolutely.
These conditions are expected along a huge stretch
of coastline, the Bahamas, much of the U .S.
East Coast, Bermuda, even Atlantic Canada over
the next several days. Wow, that's a huge area.
It is. The rip current risk is already rated
as high along most of the U .S. East Coast right
now. Oh, already? Yes. And the main swell energy
hasn't even fully arrived yet. We're already
hearing about rescues happening at beaches in
North Carolina. Geez. So it's critical, absolutely
critical, that beachgoers in all these areas
follow advice from lifeguards and local authorities.
Pay attention to those beach warning flags. Don't
underestimate the ocean. Never. Especially not
now. Even knee -level water with a kind of strong
currents Aaron will generate, even from hundreds
of miles away, can easily knock you off your
feet and pull you out. That's a scary thought,
like this knee -deep water. It's incredibly dangerous.
A undertow can be immense. And what about North
Carolina specifically, particularly the Outer
Banks? We're hearing about watches being issued
there, tropical storm watches, storm surge watches.
Sounds serious for those islands. It is, yeah.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical
storm watch for eastern North Carolina, specifically
because Aaron's expanding wind field could brush
the Outer Banks. Okay, a wash means conditions
are possible. Correct. Possible within about
48 hours. In this case, sustained winds of 40
miles per hour or higher, with gusts maybe up
to 50 or 60 miles per hour. Still strong enough
to cause damage. Oh, yeah. Downed trees, power
outages definitely makes travel dangerous. So
people there need to stay really aware. of updates
to the wind forecast. And the storm surge watch.
That sounds even more concerning for low -lying
areas. It is, arguably. That watch means there's
the possibility the ocean water could rise over
three feet above the normal high tide level.
Three feet above high tide. Over three feet,
yes. And for the Outer Banks specifically and
nearby areas, the forecast is actually for potentially
four feet above normal high tide. Four feet.
That would inundate a lot of areas. It would
put significant pressure on the beaches, dunes,
roads, homes, everything near the ocean. And
remember, that's the still water rise. On top
of that, you'll have large, powerful waves. But
definitely dangerous. Exactly. And this surge
potential isn't just for the Outer Banks. Areas
as far south as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina,
and north up to Norfolk in the Tidewater area
of Virginia could see storm surge up to three
feet above normal. So the impact is really broad
because of the storm size. Precisely. This surge
and the large waves will lead to significant
beach erosion and overwash. That's when waves
wash over the dunes and onto roads. Like Highway
12. Especially Highway 12. It could become impassable
in spots. And that's why mandatory evacuations
have already been ordered for parts of the Outer
Banks Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island in
Dare County. The really low -lying vulnerable
spots. Mandatory evacuations already. They're
taking it seriously. As they should. History
shows those areas are extremely vulnerable. So
beyond North Carolina and that immediate threat,
how far north will these impacts, particularly
the dangerous surf and coastal flooding, stretch?
And what about rainfall? OK, let's trace it up
the coast. Through today, strong swells generated
by Aaron are increasingly reaching the southeast
coast, mainly from, say, Palm Beach County in
Florida up to Cape Hatteras. These aren't just
normal waves. They're long period swells, carrying
a ton of energy. They'll pound the shorelines
for the next three days. Three days of pounding
waves. Yeah, leading to more erosion, overwash,
and those dangerous currents we talked about.
Even South Florida, though somewhat shielded
by the Bahamas, needs to watch for rip current
alerts. Okay. And further north. Late Wednesday
and then right through Friday, those impacts
will march north. We're talking the entire northern
half of the East Coast. So Virginia, Delmarva.
Yep, the Tidewater area, Delmarva Peninsula,
the Jersey Shore, coastal Long Island, New England,
even eventually into Atlantic Canada. Wow, all
the way up. All the way up. And the coastal vulnerability,
the flooding potential, will peak during high
tide cycles. Right, the storm pushes the tide
even higher. Exactly. You get the normal tide
plus the storm surge plus the big waves on top.
It's a recipe for a significant coastal flooding
and erosion, especially over multiple tide cycles
because Aaron is moving relatively slowly at
first. And rainfall? Is that a major concern
for the U .S. coast? For the immediate U .S.
coast, the primary threat is really the water
impacts from the ocean. The surge, waves, currents,
erosion. The heaviest rainfall from Aaron's outer
bands is more focused currently over the Turks
and Kaikos and expected tonight for the Bahamas.
Okay. So flash flooding and urban flooding are
possible there. But for the mainland US, it's
mainly about the coastal and marine hazards.
Got it. Now you mentioned earlier something about
a potential sneaky rain event for the Northeast,
a PRE. What is that exactly? And why flag it
if only one model is showing it? Sounds intriguing.
Yeah, it's definitely intriguing. And it's a
low risk scenario right now, but one worth mentioning
because the potential impact, if it happened,
could be significant locally. OK. P .R .E. predecessor
rain event. Right. It could potentially occur
somewhere in the northeast, maybe Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. How does it work? Basically,
even though air in itself is still well offshore,
its tropical moisture gets drawn northward ahead
of the storm. And this plume of moisture can
interact with a separate weather feature, like
a frontal boundary that might be stalled near,
say, Long Island or southern New England. OK.
Tropical moisture meets a front. Exactly. And
when that happens, it can create a narrow but
very intense band of heavy rainfall, like focusing
a fire hose of tropical moisture. Ah, leading
to localized flooding. Precisely. Localized downpours,
much higher rainfall rates than you'd otherwise
expect, potential for flash flooding in that
narrow strip. And you called it sneaky. Why?
Because currently, Only one of the major global
weather models, the European model, is really
highlighting this potential strongly. Just one.
Yeah. The others aren't really seeing it the
same way. That makes it a nuanced forecast detail.
There isn't strong model consensus. But the European
model is generally well respected. Very well
respected. So when it hints at something like
this, even if other models disagree, forecasters
pay attention. It represents that low probability,
potentially high impact event. Right. Something
to watch, even if it's just an outside chance.
Exactly. It's a perfect example of looking for
those subtle signals in the forecast data. OK,
so Aaron is clearly the main event right now,
demanding huge attention. But what else is happening
out there in the tropical Atlantic? The season
feels like it's really churning now. You're absolutely
right. It's definitely an active period. And
if we look at the bigger picture, the National
Hurricane Center is tracking two additional tropical
waves moving west across the Atlantic. between
Africa and the Caribbean. Two more. OK. Yeah.
It just reminds you that even with a dominant
storm like Aaron, the tropics can brew up multiple
systems at once. Keeps forecasters very busy.
All right. Let's take the first one, the one
that's closer to the Lourdes Islands. What's
its status? What's its potential as we head towards
the weekend? OK. This system is currently a large
but still pretty disorganized tropical disturbance.
It's located over the central tropical Atlantic.
disorganized showers and storms. Yep, a broad
area of them. But looking ahead, the environmental
conditions appear to be becoming more conducive
for gradual development. Warmer waters, enough
moisture, maybe less wind shear, the ingredients
are starting to come together. Okay. So there's
a chance, a decent chance, actually, that a tropical
depression could form later this week or maybe
over the weekend. What kind of chance are we
talking? The National Hurricane Center gives
it a medium chance of formation through the next
seven days. They put it at 60%. 60%. OK, that's
significant. Where is it headed? It's expected
to move generally westward to northwestward fairly
quickly, maybe around 20 miles per hour. On that
track, it would approach the vicinity of the
northern Leeward Islands. Big Antigua, St. Kitts,
that area, probably on Friday. OK. Folks, there
need to be watching closely, then. Absolutely.
And if it strengthens enough, if the winds hit
40 miles per hour, it would get a name. Tropical
Storm Fernand. Fernand. Got it. What happens
after the Leeward Islands? Well, the general
consensus among the long -range computer models
is that this system, whether it's Fernand or
just a disturbance, will likely pass over or
near Puerto Rico. and the surrounding islands.
And then it's forecast to make a turn towards
the north. Ah, recurving. Looks like it. There's
a strong dip in the jet stream expected to move
in, which should basically scoop it up and lift
it out of the deep tropics. Does that mean it
misses the U .S. East Coast? It's not clear yet
how close it might come after that northward
turn. It's still pretty far out. And forecasts
for disorganized systems are always, you know,
subject to significant changes. Right. Harder
to predict without a clear center. Exactly. So
for now, the main message is awareness, especially
for the Caribbean islands first. A system is
heading into an area we watch very closely this
time of year. OK, that's one to watch. What about
the other disturbance, the one further east,
closer to Africa? How does that one look? This
is another tropical wave, yeah. It's currently
located about 100 miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. And similar to the other one, initially,
it's producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
But is the environment different for this one?
It seems so. The environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for development over
the next couple of days as it moves west at about
15 miles per hour. Marginally favorable. OK,
so less potential. Looks that way. The National
Hurricane Center reflects that they give it only
a low chance of development, just 30 % through
the next 48 hours and also only 30 % through
the next seven days. Low chance, okay. Why is
that? Well, looking further down the road towards
the end of this week, this system is forecast
to encounter a less favorable environment. Less
favorable how? The computer models suggest it's
going to run into a lot of dry air. Ah, dry air
kills tropical storms. It really does. It chokes
off the moisture they need. Plus, the models
also show an upper -level wind pattern that's
not very conducive, maybe too much shear again,
or poor outflow. So even though it looks vigorous
on satellites sometimes. Yeah, sometimes these
waves can look impressive visually with big bursts
of thunderstorms, but if the surrounding atmosphere
isn't right, they just can't get organized or
sustain themselves. Makes sense. The models generally
don't do much with this one in terms of development.
But, you know, it's hurricane season. You watch
everything. I watch everything carefully, yeah.
Conditions can always change unexpectedly. It's
just so clear, listening to all this, that forecasting
these systems, Aaron's intensity, its size, these
other waves, it's just a massive ongoing scientific
effort, isn't it? What does this deep dive really
tell us about how the National Hurricane Center
works and the challenges they face? It really
highlights the dynamic nature of forecasting.
Absolutely. The advisories and discussions we're
talking about, they aren't static predictions.
They're constantly being refined based on a huge
flow of incoming data. Like the Hurricane Hunter
data we mentioned. Exactly. That's critical real
-time ground truth or maybe air truth data. For
Erin, we see that constant balancing act forecasters
have to perform. Balancing what? Balancing the
storm's current appearance. You know, the messy
structure due to shear. against other factors
like the improving upper level outflow or the
forecast decrease in shear, which both suggest
potential strengthening. Right, conflicting signals
almost. Often, yes. Yeah. It's complex physics
playing out. And then there's the size factor
with Aaron. The global models showing this dramatic
increase in size is a huge piece of the puzzle.
And you said that might mean the standard risk
products underestimate the wind threat. Potentially,
yeah. Those probability tools often rely on averages,
and Aaron's forecast wind field is much larger
than average, so the actual area likely to experience
hazardous winds could be wider than those standard
tools suggest. It challenges assumptions. It
really forces you to look beyond just the category
number. Absolutely. And for those other less
organized tropical waves, the challenge is different,
but just as tough. without that well -defined
center. It's hard for the models to lock onto
a track. Exactly. Predicting the long -term track
and intensity is really difficult until the system
gets better organized. It's like trying to predict
where smoke will go before it's clearly rising
from a chimney. That's a good analogy. And even
that single model hinting at the PRE, the predecessor
rain event, it just underscores how forecasters
have to consider every piece of data, every possible
scenario, even low probability ones, because
the local impact could still be significant.
It's this constant synthesis of data, models,
and expert judgment. It's incredibly demanding
work. So, pulling this all together for you,
our listener, what does this mean in terms of
preparedness? What's the bottom line, the key
takeaway for staying safe with Aaron and these
other systems out there? The key message always
is preparedness and vigilance. Don't wait. Okay.
Aaron is expected to produce life -threatening
surf and rip currents along huge stretches of
the coast. Bahamas, US East Coast, Bermuda, Atlantic
Canada. That's a certainty. Don't go in the water.
Please don't, unless lifeguards say it's safe.
and heed those flags. For North Carolina, especially
the Outer Banks, storm surge flooding and tropical
storm conditions are expected. That's why evacuations
are happening. Heavy rainfall is also a threat
for the Turks and Kaikos and the Bahamas, leading
to potential flash floods there. And further
up the U .S. coast. Interests along the mid -Atlantic,
southern New England coasts and Bermuda. need
to monitor Aaron's progress closely for strong
winds, possibly arriving Thursday and Friday,
along with those dangerous coastal conditions.
And it's a long event. Yes, that's crucial. It's
a long duration event. That increased wave energy
and potential surge will affect multiple high
tide cycles, making coastal flooding and erosion
worse over several days. So what should people
do? Follow advice from your local emergency managers
and authorities. Listen to lifeguards. Heed all
warnings and watches issued for your area. Know
the difference between a watch and a warning.
Yes. A watch means be prepared. Conditions are
possible. A warning means take action. Conditions
are expected or imminent. And please remember
how dangerous even shallow water can be with
these powerful currents. Even knee deep? Even
knee deep. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, NRAA, through the National Hurricane
Center, has fantastic resources online about
hurricane preparedness. Use them. Make a plan.
Be ready. Great advice. Stay informed. Stay prepared.
Hashtag hashtag outro. Wow, what a really thorough
look at everything happening in the Atlantic
right now. We've seen how hurricane Aaron, even
with some intensity ups and downs, poses this
really significant widespread threat, mainly
because of its incredible size. Yeah, that size
factor is key. Yeah, driving dangerous surf,
rip currents, and that critical storm surge potential.
It really challenges how we usually think about
hurricane danger, doesn't it? It really does.
It forces a broader perspective. And we've also
touched on those other systems brewing, just
reminding us the season is active and far from
over. Indeed. Understanding these dynamics, the
forecasting challenges, it helps appreciate the
sheer scale of these events and really the constant
need for vigilance. So as you, our listener,
reflect on our discussion today about Erin, about
forecasting. Maybe consider this. We often focus
on the peak, right? The strongest win, the highest
point. But Erin is showing us that sometimes
the biggest impact comes from something less
obvious, like its sheer breadth. The overall
footprint. Exactly. So how might that apply elsewhere
in your life? When you're looking at complex
information, maybe it's financial news, maybe
a social issue, a work project. Are you maybe
focusing too much on the peak intensity, the
headline number, while a larger, maybe quieter
breadth of influence is actually shaping the
real outcome? That's a fascinating thought. What
seemingly minor details, once you understand
them, actually reveal the bigger picture? Something
to think about. Thank you so much for joining
us on this Meteorology Matters podcast. And a
huge thank you to our expert for sharing such
invaluable, detailed insights today. Always a
pleasure. Glad I could help break it down. And
remember, if you want to stay even more informed
with real time updates, do follow meteorologist
Rob Jones on Instagram. He's just meteorologist
to find on TikTok. He's TV meteorologist. And
on YouTube, look for Rob Jones Hurricane. That's
also where you can find our entire Meteorology
Matters podcast playlist. Stay safe out there,
stay informed, and we'll catch you next time
on Meteorology Matters.