WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.700 Welcome to the Meteorology Matters podcast. We're 00:00:02.700 --> 00:00:05.059 the place where we take a closer look at the 00:00:05.059 --> 00:00:09.320 powerful forces shaping our weather and really 00:00:09.320 --> 00:00:11.359 try to bring you the most important insights 00:00:11.359 --> 00:00:14.060 without all the jargon. That's the goal. Today, 00:00:14.179 --> 00:00:16.460 we're diving deep into the Atlantic hurricane 00:00:16.460 --> 00:00:19.399 season. We're focusing on a pretty significant 00:00:19.399 --> 00:00:21.820 system that's, well, it's on everyone's radar 00:00:21.820 --> 00:00:25.890 right now, Hurricane Aaron. Yeah, and we'll also 00:00:25.890 --> 00:00:27.949 touch on a couple of other tropical waves that 00:00:27.949 --> 00:00:29.690 are, you know, just getting started out there. 00:00:30.190 --> 00:00:33.030 Our mission today is really to unpack the very 00:00:33.030 --> 00:00:35.469 latest data, help you understand what it means 00:00:35.469 --> 00:00:37.969 for conditions along the coast, and just give 00:00:37.969 --> 00:00:39.770 you the knowledge you need to stay well -informed. 00:00:39.950 --> 00:00:41.829 And it's a crucial time of year for this stuff. 00:00:42.049 --> 00:00:45.729 Absolutely. And with us, as always, is our expert 00:00:45.729 --> 00:00:49.030 guide to this complex world of weather. Great 00:00:49.030 --> 00:00:51.469 to be here. Lots to talk about today. Definitely. 00:00:51.850 --> 00:00:54.140 Now, before we jump in, If you want to stay even 00:00:54.140 --> 00:00:56.219 more informed, maybe get some real -time updates 00:00:56.219 --> 00:00:58.840 from a trusted voice, make sure you follow meteorologist 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:01.560 Rob Jones. Oh yeah, Rob's excellent. On Instagram, 00:01:01.820 --> 00:01:04.439 his handle is super easy, it's just meteorologist. 00:01:04.500 --> 00:01:06.780 Simple enough. And on TikTok, you can find him 00:01:06.780 --> 00:01:09.760 at TV meteorologist. Got it. And for our YouTube 00:01:09.760 --> 00:01:13.260 listeners, follow Rob Jones Hurricane. That's 00:01:13.260 --> 00:01:15.379 where you'll also find the entire Meteorology 00:01:15.379 --> 00:01:18.140 Matters podcast playlist, actually. Oh, handy. 00:01:18.400 --> 00:01:20.099 Yeah. You won't want to miss his live updates, 00:01:20.159 --> 00:01:22.099 especially with active systems like Aaron out 00:01:22.099 --> 00:01:24.599 there. No, definitely not. And the information 00:01:24.599 --> 00:01:27.840 we're about to discuss today, it's really vital 00:01:27.840 --> 00:01:30.620 for anyone in coastal areas or, you know, even 00:01:30.620 --> 00:01:32.840 if you just have interests there. Right. We'll 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.799 break down what's happening, why it matters and 00:01:35.799 --> 00:01:38.310 what to keep an eye on. OK, let's get right into 00:01:38.310 --> 00:01:40.409 it then with Hurricane Aaron. It's currently 00:01:40.409 --> 00:01:42.829 the most active system out there, the one demanding 00:01:42.829 --> 00:01:45.590 the most attention. What's the absolute latest 00:01:45.590 --> 00:01:49.650 as of this Tuesday, August 19th? OK, so as of 00:01:49.650 --> 00:01:53.390 2 .00 p .m. Eastern Daylight Time today, the 00:01:53.390 --> 00:01:56.390 National Hurricane Center in Miami is issuing 00:01:56.390 --> 00:01:59.829 regular advisories on Hurricane Aaron. Its current 00:01:59.829 --> 00:02:02.909 position puts it a couple hundred miles to the 00:02:02.909 --> 00:02:05.709 northeast of the southeast Bahamas. OK, so still 00:02:05.709 --> 00:02:08.449 offshore. But definitely relevant. Definitely 00:02:08.449 --> 00:02:10.750 relevant. And it's an active system, meaning 00:02:10.750 --> 00:02:13.770 continuous monitoring, constant updates are being 00:02:13.770 --> 00:02:16.409 issued. As new data comes in, they're watching 00:02:16.409 --> 00:02:19.610 it very, very closely. So what does this hurricane 00:02:19.610 --> 00:02:21.990 look like up close? You hear about these Hurricane 00:02:21.990 --> 00:02:24.710 Hunter flights. What are those vital Air Force 00:02:24.710 --> 00:02:26.770 reports telling us? They fly right into it, right? 00:02:26.830 --> 00:02:30.030 They do, yeah. It's incredible work. And what's 00:02:30.030 --> 00:02:34.050 fascinating here is the complexity of Aaron's 00:02:34.240 --> 00:02:38.080 Structure right now the cloud pattern continues 00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:40.860 to be disrupted by vertical wind shear. OK. Explain 00:02:40.860 --> 00:02:42.939 shear force again quickly. Sure. It's basically 00:02:42.939 --> 00:02:44.960 winds blowing in different directions or at different 00:02:44.960 --> 00:02:46.580 speeds at different heights in the atmosphere. 00:02:47.219 --> 00:02:51.099 Imagine it like trying to build a tower of blocks 00:02:51.099 --> 00:02:53.539 when the wind keeps changing direction at each 00:02:53.539 --> 00:02:55.539 level. Right. It kind of tilts it or tears it 00:02:55.539 --> 00:02:57.560 apart. Exactly. It tears at the storm structure. 00:02:57.860 --> 00:02:59.740 And this shear is leaving the low level center, 00:02:59.860 --> 00:03:02.520 the actual core circulation near the surface, 00:03:03.159 --> 00:03:05.199 situated near the northwestern edge of the main 00:03:05.199 --> 00:03:08.319 area of deep convection. So the engine isn't 00:03:08.319 --> 00:03:11.000 quite under the main thunderstorm activity. Pretty 00:03:11.000 --> 00:03:13.000 much, yeah. That's a good way to put it. It's 00:03:13.000 --> 00:03:17.159 offset. However, even with that disruption, there 00:03:17.159 --> 00:03:20.219 are still well -defined convective banding features, 00:03:20.599 --> 00:03:22.819 mostly over the eastern semicircle. OK, so what 00:03:22.819 --> 00:03:26.099 are those bands? Those are like, uh... curved 00:03:26.099 --> 00:03:29.639 lines of really intense thunderstorms spiraling 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:32.400 inwards. Their presence tells us there's still 00:03:32.400 --> 00:03:35.300 organized activity, still some power there, despite 00:03:35.300 --> 00:03:39.699 the sheer. Gotcha. And the Hurricane Hunter aircraft 00:03:39.699 --> 00:03:42.500 have also reported something interesting. The 00:03:42.500 --> 00:03:45.590 central pressure has actually risen. compared 00:03:45.590 --> 00:03:47.650 to earlier this morning. Risen. Doesn't lower 00:03:47.650 --> 00:03:50.050 pressure usually mean stronger? Generally, yes. 00:03:50.389 --> 00:03:53.490 Lower pressure, stronger storm. So a rise usually 00:03:53.490 --> 00:03:55.650 suggests some weakening, or at least not strengthening. 00:03:55.849 --> 00:03:58.009 The official advisory intensity is set at 90 00:03:58.009 --> 00:04:01.050 knots, which translates to 105 miles per hour. 00:04:01.270 --> 00:04:03.930 So a solid category two. Still very strong. Oh, 00:04:03.930 --> 00:04:06.009 absolutely. But it's worth noting that the actual 00:04:06.009 --> 00:04:07.810 wind observations from the hurricane hunters 00:04:07.810 --> 00:04:10.509 suggest this intensity estimate might be a little 00:04:10.509 --> 00:04:13.060 on the high side. It just highlights the challenge. 00:04:14.180 --> 00:04:17.420 Trying to get a precise measurement in such a 00:04:17.420 --> 00:04:21.220 dynamic, somewhat disorganized system is really, 00:04:21.220 --> 00:04:23.000 really tricky. Yeah, I can imagine. It's not 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:25.920 just one simple number. Not at all. OK. And we're 00:04:25.920 --> 00:04:27.740 hearing a lot about air and growing in size. 00:04:27.879 --> 00:04:30.139 How significant is this? And what does it really 00:04:30.139 --> 00:04:32.939 mean for its power, its potential impact? Because 00:04:32.939 --> 00:04:34.699 that sounds almost more concerning than just 00:04:34.699 --> 00:04:37.120 the wind speed number. This raises a really, 00:04:37.120 --> 00:04:39.180 really important point about how we perceive 00:04:39.180 --> 00:04:42.279 hurricane danger. We often fixate on that category 00:04:42.279 --> 00:04:44.959 number, right? The Saffir -Simpson scale. Right, 00:04:45.180 --> 00:04:48.720 cat 1, cat 2, cat 3. Exactly. But the storm size, 00:04:49.040 --> 00:04:52.259 its actual diameter, is just as critical, maybe 00:04:52.259 --> 00:04:54.579 even more so sometimes, especially for things 00:04:54.579 --> 00:04:57.379 like storm surge and coastal flooding. OK. So 00:04:57.379 --> 00:04:59.519 while Aaron's top winds have actually weakened 00:04:59.519 --> 00:05:01.819 slightly down to that cat 2 level from where 00:05:01.819 --> 00:05:04.519 they were, The system itself is dramatically 00:05:04.519 --> 00:05:06.920 growing in size. How dramatically? It's already 00:05:06.920 --> 00:05:08.680 twice as large as it was just a few days ago. 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:12.220 Wow. Twice the size. Yep. And the forecast is 00:05:12.220 --> 00:05:14.120 for it to become one of the largest major hurricanes 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:16.639 that's category three or stronger on record in 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:18.759 terms of physical size. One of the largest major 00:05:18.759 --> 00:05:20.860 hurricanes ever, size -wise. Size -wise, yeah. 00:05:21.680 --> 00:05:24.610 By Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast shows 00:05:24.610 --> 00:05:27.670 the breadth of its tropical storm winds. That's 00:05:27.670 --> 00:05:30.370 winds of 39 miles per hour or stronger, reaching 00:05:30.370 --> 00:05:34.029 over 525 miles across. 500 miles. That's enormous. 00:05:34.149 --> 00:05:36.389 It's hard to even picture. It is. To put that 00:05:36.389 --> 00:05:40.350 in perspective, this would make Aaron the largest 00:05:40.350 --> 00:05:43.029 major hurricane since Fiona back in September 00:05:43.029 --> 00:05:46.670 2022. And get this, it would be only the sixth 00:05:46.670 --> 00:05:49.410 major hurricane to grow to such a colossal size 00:05:49.410 --> 00:05:51.910 this whole century. Only the sixth this century? 00:05:51.990 --> 00:05:54.589 That's rare. Very rare. And here's the key takeaway. 00:05:55.269 --> 00:05:57.990 That huge increase in the storm's diameter more 00:05:57.990 --> 00:06:00.069 than makes up for the slight decrease in peak 00:06:00.069 --> 00:06:02.209 wind speed when you think about the total energy 00:06:02.209 --> 00:06:04.209 the storm transfers to the ocean. Okay, how does 00:06:04.209 --> 00:06:06.310 that work? Well, a larger storm pushes a much 00:06:06.310 --> 00:06:08.750 larger volume of water over a much wider area. 00:06:09.480 --> 00:06:12.740 So it creates a more extensive impact zone. The 00:06:12.740 --> 00:06:15.240 storm surge potential is greater over a longer 00:06:15.240 --> 00:06:17.660 stretch of coast. The waves are generated over 00:06:17.660 --> 00:06:20.420 a larger fetch. It's just a bigger footprint 00:06:20.420 --> 00:06:23.639 of danger. So size matters, maybe even more than 00:06:23.639 --> 00:06:26.439 peak intensity in some ways? For widespread coastal 00:06:26.439 --> 00:06:29.519 impacts like surge and erosion, absolutely. It's 00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:31.579 about the total energy, not just the peak wind 00:06:31.579 --> 00:06:34.240 in one tiny spot near the eye. OK, that really 00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:37.480 reframes the threat. So what's the expected path 00:06:37.480 --> 00:06:40.589 for Aaron? Where is this massive system headed, 00:06:40.990 --> 00:06:43.529 and how is its intensity expected to evolve, 00:06:43.970 --> 00:06:46.449 considering all these complex factors? Right 00:06:46.449 --> 00:06:48.790 now, its initial motion is a bit faster, moving 00:06:48.790 --> 00:06:51.769 northwest at about 8 knots, roughly 9 miles per 00:06:51.769 --> 00:06:54.610 hour. The forecast track shows Aaron is expected 00:06:54.610 --> 00:06:57.949 to make a turn northward. It'll curve around 00:06:57.949 --> 00:07:00.149 the western edge of a big high pressure system, 00:07:00.610 --> 00:07:02.810 a subtropical anti -cyclone, that's centered 00:07:02.810 --> 00:07:04.730 southeast of Bermuda. It's like a steering current 00:07:04.730 --> 00:07:07.139 pushing it north. Exactly. That high pressure 00:07:07.139 --> 00:07:09.620 acts like a barrier, steering the storm around 00:07:09.620 --> 00:07:12.720 it. Then, later in the forecast period, the system 00:07:12.720 --> 00:07:15.120 should turn more towards the northeast, and it 00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:16.839 should pick up some forward speed as it gets 00:07:16.839 --> 00:07:18.560 caught up in the mid -latitude west release. 00:07:18.839 --> 00:07:20.920 Those are the winds that usually push storms 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:24.279 out to sea. Generally, yes. The prevailing west 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:27.660 to east flow higher up in the atmosphere. The 00:07:27.660 --> 00:07:31.009 good news... is that there haven't been significant 00:07:31.009 --> 00:07:33.889 shifts or big changes in the National Hurricane 00:07:33.889 --> 00:07:36.310 Center's forecast track recently. Okay, good. 00:07:36.529 --> 00:07:39.129 Consistency is helpful. It is. And the official 00:07:39.129 --> 00:07:42.949 forecast track is very close to the latest dynamical 00:07:42.949 --> 00:07:46.189 model consensus, meaning most of these sophisticated 00:07:46.189 --> 00:07:50.350 computer models agree on the general path. that 00:07:50.350 --> 00:07:52.449 gives us relatively high confidence in where 00:07:52.449 --> 00:07:54.449 it's generally headed. Okay, that's the track. 00:07:54.629 --> 00:07:56.149 What about the intensity? You said it was tricky. 00:07:56.449 --> 00:07:59.569 Yeah, predicting its intensity is somewhat problematic. 00:07:59.790 --> 00:08:01.490 It's a real challenge right now. Why is that? 00:08:01.670 --> 00:08:03.889 Well, given its current messy look, you know, 00:08:04.069 --> 00:08:06.470 the disorganization from the shear, you might 00:08:06.470 --> 00:08:08.930 be hesitant to forecast it getting much stronger. 00:08:09.110 --> 00:08:11.860 Right, it doesn't look primed to intensify. Exactly. 00:08:12.439 --> 00:08:15.800 But the dynamical models, the complex ones, they're 00:08:15.800 --> 00:08:18.600 showing increasingly favorable conditions developing 00:08:18.600 --> 00:08:22.540 above the storm. Specifically, more anti -cyclonic 00:08:22.540 --> 00:08:25.040 upper -level flow. Okay, meaning? Think of it 00:08:25.040 --> 00:08:27.660 like the storm's exhaust system. Good outflow 00:08:27.660 --> 00:08:30.839 aloft, like a well -ventilated chimney, allows 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:33.970 the storm to breathe better. pull in more warm, 00:08:34.149 --> 00:08:36.870 moist air at the surface, and potentially strengthen. 00:08:37.009 --> 00:08:40.029 I see. Better ventilation. Right. And those same 00:08:40.029 --> 00:08:42.409 models are also showing a significant decrease 00:08:42.409 --> 00:08:44.330 in that vertical wind shear that's been bothering 00:08:44.330 --> 00:08:47.269 it. Ah, so the thing tearing it apart might ease 00:08:47.269 --> 00:08:50.309 up. Exactly. So if the shear weakens and the 00:08:50.309 --> 00:08:52.490 outflow improves... It could re -strengthen. 00:08:52.769 --> 00:08:55.730 It could. Therefore, the official forecast from 00:08:55.730 --> 00:08:57.710 the National Hurricane Center does show a bit 00:08:57.710 --> 00:08:59.929 of re -strengthening over the next 36 hours or 00:08:59.929 --> 00:09:02.389 so. How much? Potentially reaching 95 knots, 00:09:02.470 --> 00:09:04.929 which is about 110 miles per hour. Still a strong 00:09:04.929 --> 00:09:07.529 category 2, maybe flirting with cat 3. Okay. 00:09:07.879 --> 00:09:10.200 Now, this forecast is a little higher than the 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:12.980 average model consensus, but it's actually below 00:09:12.980 --> 00:09:15.139 some other guidance like the statistical models. 00:09:15.899 --> 00:09:18.480 So still some uncertainty, but leaning towards 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:20.700 maintaining strength or slightly increasing. 00:09:20.980 --> 00:09:22.539 That's the best way to put it. There's still 00:09:22.539 --> 00:09:25.379 a range of possibilities. But the core of the 00:09:25.379 --> 00:09:27.919 storm, the part with the strongest winds, there's 00:09:27.919 --> 00:09:30.179 high confidence it will pass somewhere between 00:09:30.179 --> 00:09:32.940 North Carolina and Bermuda. OK, between NC and 00:09:32.940 --> 00:09:35.820 Bermuda. That's key. Yes. And it's expected to 00:09:35.820 --> 00:09:37.940 move fairly slowly through the first half of 00:09:37.940 --> 00:09:40.740 this week. Slow is bad for coastal impacts, right? 00:09:41.139 --> 00:09:43.320 More time for waves and surge. Definitely. A 00:09:43.320 --> 00:09:46.279 longer duration of impact than it should accelerate 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:48.940 out to sea on Friday and Saturday. OK, this is 00:09:48.940 --> 00:09:50.740 where it gets really critical for you, our listener, 00:09:50.980 --> 00:09:52.740 especially if you're anywhere near the East Coast. 00:09:53.679 --> 00:09:57.580 What are the immediate and the most widespread 00:09:57.580 --> 00:10:00.419 dangers we need to be aware of from this massive 00:10:00.419 --> 00:10:03.500 hurricane Aaron? The number one most immediate 00:10:03.500 --> 00:10:06.120 and most widespread danger is life -threatening 00:10:06.120 --> 00:10:08.679 surf and rip currents. Life -threatening. Absolutely. 00:10:09.159 --> 00:10:11.279 These conditions are expected along a huge stretch 00:10:11.279 --> 00:10:13.759 of coastline, the Bahamas, much of the U .S. 00:10:13.779 --> 00:10:16.779 East Coast, Bermuda, even Atlantic Canada over 00:10:16.779 --> 00:10:19.460 the next several days. Wow, that's a huge area. 00:10:19.879 --> 00:10:22.580 It is. The rip current risk is already rated 00:10:22.580 --> 00:10:24.980 as high along most of the U .S. East Coast right 00:10:24.980 --> 00:10:28.029 now. Oh, already? Yes. And the main swell energy 00:10:28.029 --> 00:10:30.529 hasn't even fully arrived yet. We're already 00:10:30.529 --> 00:10:32.669 hearing about rescues happening at beaches in 00:10:32.669 --> 00:10:36.389 North Carolina. Geez. So it's critical, absolutely 00:10:36.389 --> 00:10:39.809 critical, that beachgoers in all these areas 00:10:39.809 --> 00:10:42.929 follow advice from lifeguards and local authorities. 00:10:43.710 --> 00:10:46.210 Pay attention to those beach warning flags. Don't 00:10:46.210 --> 00:10:48.909 underestimate the ocean. Never. Especially not 00:10:48.909 --> 00:10:52.110 now. Even knee -level water with a kind of strong 00:10:52.110 --> 00:10:54.629 currents Aaron will generate, even from hundreds 00:10:54.629 --> 00:10:57.250 of miles away, can easily knock you off your 00:10:57.250 --> 00:10:59.389 feet and pull you out. That's a scary thought, 00:10:59.629 --> 00:11:01.929 like this knee -deep water. It's incredibly dangerous. 00:11:02.110 --> 00:11:04.070 A undertow can be immense. And what about North 00:11:04.070 --> 00:11:06.129 Carolina specifically, particularly the Outer 00:11:06.129 --> 00:11:08.070 Banks? We're hearing about watches being issued 00:11:08.070 --> 00:11:10.629 there, tropical storm watches, storm surge watches. 00:11:11.070 --> 00:11:13.269 Sounds serious for those islands. It is, yeah. 00:11:13.750 --> 00:11:16.029 The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical 00:11:16.029 --> 00:11:19.029 storm watch for eastern North Carolina, specifically 00:11:19.029 --> 00:11:22.149 because Aaron's expanding wind field could brush 00:11:22.149 --> 00:11:24.350 the Outer Banks. Okay, a wash means conditions 00:11:24.350 --> 00:11:27.159 are possible. Correct. Possible within about 00:11:27.159 --> 00:11:30.580 48 hours. In this case, sustained winds of 40 00:11:30.580 --> 00:11:33.419 miles per hour or higher, with gusts maybe up 00:11:33.419 --> 00:11:35.679 to 50 or 60 miles per hour. Still strong enough 00:11:35.679 --> 00:11:39.159 to cause damage. Oh, yeah. Downed trees, power 00:11:39.159 --> 00:11:42.559 outages definitely makes travel dangerous. So 00:11:42.559 --> 00:11:46.149 people there need to stay really aware. of updates 00:11:46.149 --> 00:11:48.950 to the wind forecast. And the storm surge watch. 00:11:49.049 --> 00:11:51.009 That sounds even more concerning for low -lying 00:11:51.009 --> 00:11:54.190 areas. It is, arguably. That watch means there's 00:11:54.190 --> 00:11:56.809 the possibility the ocean water could rise over 00:11:56.809 --> 00:11:58.789 three feet above the normal high tide level. 00:11:58.909 --> 00:12:00.610 Three feet above high tide. Over three feet, 00:12:00.669 --> 00:12:03.090 yes. And for the Outer Banks specifically and 00:12:03.090 --> 00:12:06.110 nearby areas, the forecast is actually for potentially 00:12:06.110 --> 00:12:08.490 four feet above normal high tide. Four feet. 00:12:08.649 --> 00:12:10.570 That would inundate a lot of areas. It would 00:12:10.570 --> 00:12:12.990 put significant pressure on the beaches, dunes, 00:12:13.210 --> 00:12:16.389 roads, homes, everything near the ocean. And 00:12:16.389 --> 00:12:18.450 remember, that's the still water rise. On top 00:12:18.450 --> 00:12:20.490 of that, you'll have large, powerful waves. But 00:12:20.490 --> 00:12:22.710 definitely dangerous. Exactly. And this surge 00:12:22.710 --> 00:12:24.970 potential isn't just for the Outer Banks. Areas 00:12:24.970 --> 00:12:26.990 as far south as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 00:12:27.370 --> 00:12:29.409 and north up to Norfolk in the Tidewater area 00:12:29.409 --> 00:12:32.389 of Virginia could see storm surge up to three 00:12:32.389 --> 00:12:35.029 feet above normal. So the impact is really broad 00:12:35.029 --> 00:12:38.340 because of the storm size. Precisely. This surge 00:12:38.340 --> 00:12:40.860 and the large waves will lead to significant 00:12:40.860 --> 00:12:43.679 beach erosion and overwash. That's when waves 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:46.279 wash over the dunes and onto roads. Like Highway 00:12:46.279 --> 00:12:49.519 12. Especially Highway 12. It could become impassable 00:12:49.519 --> 00:12:52.299 in spots. And that's why mandatory evacuations 00:12:52.299 --> 00:12:54.039 have already been ordered for parts of the Outer 00:12:54.039 --> 00:12:56.600 Banks Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island in 00:12:56.600 --> 00:12:59.320 Dare County. The really low -lying vulnerable 00:12:59.320 --> 00:13:01.639 spots. Mandatory evacuations already. They're 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:04.059 taking it seriously. As they should. History 00:13:04.059 --> 00:13:07.009 shows those areas are extremely vulnerable. So 00:13:07.009 --> 00:13:08.970 beyond North Carolina and that immediate threat, 00:13:09.409 --> 00:13:11.870 how far north will these impacts, particularly 00:13:11.870 --> 00:13:14.429 the dangerous surf and coastal flooding, stretch? 00:13:14.850 --> 00:13:16.769 And what about rainfall? OK, let's trace it up 00:13:16.769 --> 00:13:19.929 the coast. Through today, strong swells generated 00:13:19.929 --> 00:13:22.090 by Aaron are increasingly reaching the southeast 00:13:22.090 --> 00:13:25.549 coast, mainly from, say, Palm Beach County in 00:13:25.549 --> 00:13:28.289 Florida up to Cape Hatteras. These aren't just 00:13:28.289 --> 00:13:30.809 normal waves. They're long period swells, carrying 00:13:30.809 --> 00:13:33.549 a ton of energy. They'll pound the shorelines 00:13:33.549 --> 00:13:35.769 for the next three days. Three days of pounding 00:13:35.769 --> 00:13:38.830 waves. Yeah, leading to more erosion, overwash, 00:13:39.330 --> 00:13:41.169 and those dangerous currents we talked about. 00:13:41.549 --> 00:13:44.389 Even South Florida, though somewhat shielded 00:13:44.389 --> 00:13:47.529 by the Bahamas, needs to watch for rip current 00:13:47.529 --> 00:13:51.039 alerts. Okay. And further north. Late Wednesday 00:13:51.039 --> 00:13:53.480 and then right through Friday, those impacts 00:13:53.480 --> 00:13:56.320 will march north. We're talking the entire northern 00:13:56.320 --> 00:13:59.059 half of the East Coast. So Virginia, Delmarva. 00:13:59.259 --> 00:14:01.639 Yep, the Tidewater area, Delmarva Peninsula, 00:14:02.460 --> 00:14:05.860 the Jersey Shore, coastal Long Island, New England, 00:14:06.980 --> 00:14:09.519 even eventually into Atlantic Canada. Wow, all 00:14:09.519 --> 00:14:12.340 the way up. All the way up. And the coastal vulnerability, 00:14:12.519 --> 00:14:14.779 the flooding potential, will peak during high 00:14:14.779 --> 00:14:16.820 tide cycles. Right, the storm pushes the tide 00:14:16.820 --> 00:14:18.950 even higher. Exactly. You get the normal tide 00:14:18.950 --> 00:14:21.210 plus the storm surge plus the big waves on top. 00:14:21.509 --> 00:14:23.830 It's a recipe for a significant coastal flooding 00:14:23.830 --> 00:14:26.490 and erosion, especially over multiple tide cycles 00:14:26.490 --> 00:14:28.990 because Aaron is moving relatively slowly at 00:14:28.990 --> 00:14:31.720 first. And rainfall? Is that a major concern 00:14:31.720 --> 00:14:34.179 for the U .S. coast? For the immediate U .S. 00:14:34.259 --> 00:14:36.700 coast, the primary threat is really the water 00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:40.139 impacts from the ocean. The surge, waves, currents, 00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:43.259 erosion. The heaviest rainfall from Aaron's outer 00:14:43.259 --> 00:14:45.820 bands is more focused currently over the Turks 00:14:45.820 --> 00:14:48.580 and Kaikos and expected tonight for the Bahamas. 00:14:48.879 --> 00:14:51.269 Okay. So flash flooding and urban flooding are 00:14:51.269 --> 00:14:54.190 possible there. But for the mainland US, it's 00:14:54.190 --> 00:14:56.309 mainly about the coastal and marine hazards. 00:14:56.730 --> 00:14:58.830 Got it. Now you mentioned earlier something about 00:14:58.830 --> 00:15:01.549 a potential sneaky rain event for the Northeast, 00:15:02.169 --> 00:15:05.570 a PRE. What is that exactly? And why flag it 00:15:05.570 --> 00:15:08.210 if only one model is showing it? Sounds intriguing. 00:15:08.429 --> 00:15:10.029 Yeah, it's definitely intriguing. And it's a 00:15:10.029 --> 00:15:12.769 low risk scenario right now, but one worth mentioning 00:15:12.769 --> 00:15:16.009 because the potential impact, if it happened, 00:15:16.169 --> 00:15:19.379 could be significant locally. OK. P .R .E. predecessor 00:15:19.379 --> 00:15:21.179 rain event. Right. It could potentially occur 00:15:21.179 --> 00:15:24.100 somewhere in the northeast, maybe Wednesday night 00:15:24.100 --> 00:15:26.720 into Thursday morning. How does it work? Basically, 00:15:26.879 --> 00:15:29.059 even though air in itself is still well offshore, 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:31.840 its tropical moisture gets drawn northward ahead 00:15:31.840 --> 00:15:34.379 of the storm. And this plume of moisture can 00:15:34.379 --> 00:15:36.399 interact with a separate weather feature, like 00:15:36.399 --> 00:15:38.679 a frontal boundary that might be stalled near, 00:15:38.940 --> 00:15:41.840 say, Long Island or southern New England. OK. 00:15:41.960 --> 00:15:44.669 Tropical moisture meets a front. Exactly. And 00:15:44.669 --> 00:15:47.649 when that happens, it can create a narrow but 00:15:47.649 --> 00:15:51.570 very intense band of heavy rainfall, like focusing 00:15:51.570 --> 00:15:54.190 a fire hose of tropical moisture. Ah, leading 00:15:54.190 --> 00:15:57.710 to localized flooding. Precisely. Localized downpours, 00:15:57.950 --> 00:15:59.710 much higher rainfall rates than you'd otherwise 00:15:59.710 --> 00:16:02.149 expect, potential for flash flooding in that 00:16:02.149 --> 00:16:04.309 narrow strip. And you called it sneaky. Why? 00:16:04.870 --> 00:16:09.230 Because currently, Only one of the major global 00:16:09.230 --> 00:16:11.990 weather models, the European model, is really 00:16:11.990 --> 00:16:14.370 highlighting this potential strongly. Just one. 00:16:14.610 --> 00:16:16.049 Yeah. The others aren't really seeing it the 00:16:16.049 --> 00:16:18.669 same way. That makes it a nuanced forecast detail. 00:16:18.730 --> 00:16:21.110 There isn't strong model consensus. But the European 00:16:21.110 --> 00:16:23.750 model is generally well respected. Very well 00:16:23.750 --> 00:16:25.809 respected. So when it hints at something like 00:16:25.809 --> 00:16:28.789 this, even if other models disagree, forecasters 00:16:28.789 --> 00:16:31.929 pay attention. It represents that low probability, 00:16:32.570 --> 00:16:34.529 potentially high impact event. Right. Something 00:16:34.529 --> 00:16:36.590 to watch, even if it's just an outside chance. 00:16:36.809 --> 00:16:38.990 Exactly. It's a perfect example of looking for 00:16:38.990 --> 00:16:41.990 those subtle signals in the forecast data. OK, 00:16:42.210 --> 00:16:44.389 so Aaron is clearly the main event right now, 00:16:44.450 --> 00:16:47.950 demanding huge attention. But what else is happening 00:16:47.950 --> 00:16:50.549 out there in the tropical Atlantic? The season 00:16:50.549 --> 00:16:53.990 feels like it's really churning now. You're absolutely 00:16:53.990 --> 00:16:56.210 right. It's definitely an active period. And 00:16:56.210 --> 00:16:58.149 if we look at the bigger picture, the National 00:16:58.149 --> 00:17:01.169 Hurricane Center is tracking two additional tropical 00:17:01.169 --> 00:17:03.730 waves moving west across the Atlantic. between 00:17:03.730 --> 00:17:06.029 Africa and the Caribbean. Two more. OK. Yeah. 00:17:06.089 --> 00:17:08.049 It just reminds you that even with a dominant 00:17:08.049 --> 00:17:10.730 storm like Aaron, the tropics can brew up multiple 00:17:10.730 --> 00:17:13.490 systems at once. Keeps forecasters very busy. 00:17:13.789 --> 00:17:15.529 All right. Let's take the first one, the one 00:17:15.529 --> 00:17:17.470 that's closer to the Lourdes Islands. What's 00:17:17.470 --> 00:17:19.710 its status? What's its potential as we head towards 00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:23.769 the weekend? OK. This system is currently a large 00:17:23.769 --> 00:17:27.069 but still pretty disorganized tropical disturbance. 00:17:27.150 --> 00:17:29.769 It's located over the central tropical Atlantic. 00:17:30.920 --> 00:17:33.319 disorganized showers and storms. Yep, a broad 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:36.759 area of them. But looking ahead, the environmental 00:17:36.759 --> 00:17:39.180 conditions appear to be becoming more conducive 00:17:39.180 --> 00:17:42.420 for gradual development. Warmer waters, enough 00:17:42.420 --> 00:17:46.240 moisture, maybe less wind shear, the ingredients 00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:48.509 are starting to come together. Okay. So there's 00:17:48.509 --> 00:17:51.309 a chance, a decent chance, actually, that a tropical 00:17:51.309 --> 00:17:53.109 depression could form later this week or maybe 00:17:53.109 --> 00:17:54.710 over the weekend. What kind of chance are we 00:17:54.710 --> 00:17:56.589 talking? The National Hurricane Center gives 00:17:56.589 --> 00:17:58.730 it a medium chance of formation through the next 00:17:58.730 --> 00:18:02.509 seven days. They put it at 60%. 60%. OK, that's 00:18:02.509 --> 00:18:04.750 significant. Where is it headed? It's expected 00:18:04.750 --> 00:18:08.970 to move generally westward to northwestward fairly 00:18:08.970 --> 00:18:11.890 quickly, maybe around 20 miles per hour. On that 00:18:11.890 --> 00:18:14.750 track, it would approach the vicinity of the 00:18:14.750 --> 00:18:18.039 northern Leeward Islands. Big Antigua, St. Kitts, 00:18:18.079 --> 00:18:20.960 that area, probably on Friday. OK. Folks, there 00:18:20.960 --> 00:18:22.940 need to be watching closely, then. Absolutely. 00:18:23.200 --> 00:18:25.079 And if it strengthens enough, if the winds hit 00:18:25.079 --> 00:18:28.099 40 miles per hour, it would get a name. Tropical 00:18:28.099 --> 00:18:32.240 Storm Fernand. Fernand. Got it. What happens 00:18:32.240 --> 00:18:34.660 after the Leeward Islands? Well, the general 00:18:34.660 --> 00:18:37.180 consensus among the long -range computer models 00:18:37.180 --> 00:18:40.000 is that this system, whether it's Fernand or 00:18:40.000 --> 00:18:42.839 just a disturbance, will likely pass over or 00:18:42.839 --> 00:18:45.069 near Puerto Rico. and the surrounding islands. 00:18:45.390 --> 00:18:48.029 And then it's forecast to make a turn towards 00:18:48.029 --> 00:18:51.430 the north. Ah, recurving. Looks like it. There's 00:18:51.430 --> 00:18:53.569 a strong dip in the jet stream expected to move 00:18:53.569 --> 00:18:57.230 in, which should basically scoop it up and lift 00:18:57.230 --> 00:18:59.190 it out of the deep tropics. Does that mean it 00:18:59.190 --> 00:19:02.109 misses the U .S. East Coast? It's not clear yet 00:19:02.109 --> 00:19:04.369 how close it might come after that northward 00:19:04.369 --> 00:19:07.900 turn. It's still pretty far out. And forecasts 00:19:07.900 --> 00:19:10.359 for disorganized systems are always, you know, 00:19:10.539 --> 00:19:12.980 subject to significant changes. Right. Harder 00:19:12.980 --> 00:19:15.559 to predict without a clear center. Exactly. So 00:19:15.559 --> 00:19:18.859 for now, the main message is awareness, especially 00:19:18.859 --> 00:19:21.799 for the Caribbean islands first. A system is 00:19:21.799 --> 00:19:24.079 heading into an area we watch very closely this 00:19:24.079 --> 00:19:26.680 time of year. OK, that's one to watch. What about 00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:28.859 the other disturbance, the one further east, 00:19:28.940 --> 00:19:31.349 closer to Africa? How does that one look? This 00:19:31.349 --> 00:19:33.569 is another tropical wave, yeah. It's currently 00:19:33.569 --> 00:19:35.849 located about 100 miles south of the Cabo Verde 00:19:35.849 --> 00:19:38.470 Islands. And similar to the other one, initially, 00:19:38.869 --> 00:19:41.750 it's producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 00:19:41.869 --> 00:19:43.869 But is the environment different for this one? 00:19:44.109 --> 00:19:47.289 It seems so. The environmental conditions appear 00:19:47.289 --> 00:19:49.690 only marginally favorable for development over 00:19:49.690 --> 00:19:52.109 the next couple of days as it moves west at about 00:19:52.109 --> 00:19:54.890 15 miles per hour. Marginally favorable. OK, 00:19:54.970 --> 00:19:58.630 so less potential. Looks that way. The National 00:19:58.630 --> 00:20:00.750 Hurricane Center reflects that they give it only 00:20:00.750 --> 00:20:03.829 a low chance of development, just 30 % through 00:20:03.829 --> 00:20:06.750 the next 48 hours and also only 30 % through 00:20:06.750 --> 00:20:09.529 the next seven days. Low chance, okay. Why is 00:20:09.529 --> 00:20:12.730 that? Well, looking further down the road towards 00:20:12.730 --> 00:20:15.470 the end of this week, this system is forecast 00:20:15.470 --> 00:20:18.109 to encounter a less favorable environment. Less 00:20:18.109 --> 00:20:20.690 favorable how? The computer models suggest it's 00:20:20.690 --> 00:20:23.740 going to run into a lot of dry air. Ah, dry air 00:20:23.740 --> 00:20:26.539 kills tropical storms. It really does. It chokes 00:20:26.539 --> 00:20:28.740 off the moisture they need. Plus, the models 00:20:28.740 --> 00:20:31.160 also show an upper -level wind pattern that's 00:20:31.160 --> 00:20:33.779 not very conducive, maybe too much shear again, 00:20:34.180 --> 00:20:36.420 or poor outflow. So even though it looks vigorous 00:20:36.420 --> 00:20:38.920 on satellites sometimes. Yeah, sometimes these 00:20:38.920 --> 00:20:41.119 waves can look impressive visually with big bursts 00:20:41.119 --> 00:20:43.640 of thunderstorms, but if the surrounding atmosphere 00:20:43.640 --> 00:20:46.619 isn't right, they just can't get organized or 00:20:46.619 --> 00:20:48.980 sustain themselves. Makes sense. The models generally 00:20:48.980 --> 00:20:50.839 don't do much with this one in terms of development. 00:20:51.230 --> 00:20:53.529 But, you know, it's hurricane season. You watch 00:20:53.529 --> 00:20:55.289 everything. I watch everything carefully, yeah. 00:20:55.569 --> 00:20:58.529 Conditions can always change unexpectedly. It's 00:20:58.529 --> 00:21:01.650 just so clear, listening to all this, that forecasting 00:21:01.650 --> 00:21:04.569 these systems, Aaron's intensity, its size, these 00:21:04.569 --> 00:21:07.869 other waves, it's just a massive ongoing scientific 00:21:07.869 --> 00:21:10.869 effort, isn't it? What does this deep dive really 00:21:10.869 --> 00:21:13.529 tell us about how the National Hurricane Center 00:21:13.529 --> 00:21:16.309 works and the challenges they face? It really 00:21:16.309 --> 00:21:18.349 highlights the dynamic nature of forecasting. 00:21:18.569 --> 00:21:21.390 Absolutely. The advisories and discussions we're 00:21:21.390 --> 00:21:22.950 talking about, they aren't static predictions. 00:21:23.130 --> 00:21:25.829 They're constantly being refined based on a huge 00:21:25.829 --> 00:21:28.289 flow of incoming data. Like the Hurricane Hunter 00:21:28.289 --> 00:21:31.009 data we mentioned. Exactly. That's critical real 00:21:31.009 --> 00:21:34.910 -time ground truth or maybe air truth data. For 00:21:34.910 --> 00:21:37.829 Erin, we see that constant balancing act forecasters 00:21:37.829 --> 00:21:40.450 have to perform. Balancing what? Balancing the 00:21:40.450 --> 00:21:42.769 storm's current appearance. You know, the messy 00:21:42.769 --> 00:21:45.259 structure due to shear. against other factors 00:21:45.259 --> 00:21:48.259 like the improving upper level outflow or the 00:21:48.259 --> 00:21:50.859 forecast decrease in shear, which both suggest 00:21:50.859 --> 00:21:53.319 potential strengthening. Right, conflicting signals 00:21:53.319 --> 00:21:56.140 almost. Often, yes. Yeah. It's complex physics 00:21:56.140 --> 00:21:58.160 playing out. And then there's the size factor 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:01.779 with Aaron. The global models showing this dramatic 00:22:01.779 --> 00:22:05.599 increase in size is a huge piece of the puzzle. 00:22:05.880 --> 00:22:07.619 And you said that might mean the standard risk 00:22:07.619 --> 00:22:10.359 products underestimate the wind threat. Potentially, 00:22:10.539 --> 00:22:13.500 yeah. Those probability tools often rely on averages, 00:22:14.079 --> 00:22:16.240 and Aaron's forecast wind field is much larger 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:19.880 than average, so the actual area likely to experience 00:22:19.880 --> 00:22:23.059 hazardous winds could be wider than those standard 00:22:23.059 --> 00:22:26.259 tools suggest. It challenges assumptions. It 00:22:26.259 --> 00:22:28.640 really forces you to look beyond just the category 00:22:28.640 --> 00:22:31.559 number. Absolutely. And for those other less 00:22:31.559 --> 00:22:34.539 organized tropical waves, the challenge is different, 00:22:34.740 --> 00:22:37.319 but just as tough. without that well -defined 00:22:37.319 --> 00:22:39.359 center. It's hard for the models to lock onto 00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:41.940 a track. Exactly. Predicting the long -term track 00:22:41.940 --> 00:22:44.660 and intensity is really difficult until the system 00:22:44.660 --> 00:22:46.599 gets better organized. It's like trying to predict 00:22:46.599 --> 00:22:49.500 where smoke will go before it's clearly rising 00:22:49.500 --> 00:22:51.890 from a chimney. That's a good analogy. And even 00:22:51.890 --> 00:22:54.509 that single model hinting at the PRE, the predecessor 00:22:54.509 --> 00:22:57.250 rain event, it just underscores how forecasters 00:22:57.250 --> 00:23:00.509 have to consider every piece of data, every possible 00:23:00.509 --> 00:23:03.730 scenario, even low probability ones, because 00:23:03.730 --> 00:23:05.730 the local impact could still be significant. 00:23:05.930 --> 00:23:09.250 It's this constant synthesis of data, models, 00:23:09.710 --> 00:23:12.190 and expert judgment. It's incredibly demanding 00:23:12.190 --> 00:23:14.480 work. So, pulling this all together for you, 00:23:14.539 --> 00:23:17.440 our listener, what does this mean in terms of 00:23:17.440 --> 00:23:19.660 preparedness? What's the bottom line, the key 00:23:19.660 --> 00:23:21.980 takeaway for staying safe with Aaron and these 00:23:21.980 --> 00:23:24.700 other systems out there? The key message always 00:23:24.700 --> 00:23:27.920 is preparedness and vigilance. Don't wait. Okay. 00:23:28.200 --> 00:23:30.240 Aaron is expected to produce life -threatening 00:23:30.240 --> 00:23:32.740 surf and rip currents along huge stretches of 00:23:32.740 --> 00:23:35.940 the coast. Bahamas, US East Coast, Bermuda, Atlantic 00:23:35.940 --> 00:23:38.420 Canada. That's a certainty. Don't go in the water. 00:23:38.640 --> 00:23:40.400 Please don't, unless lifeguards say it's safe. 00:23:40.619 --> 00:23:43.519 and heed those flags. For North Carolina, especially 00:23:43.519 --> 00:23:46.099 the Outer Banks, storm surge flooding and tropical 00:23:46.099 --> 00:23:48.579 storm conditions are expected. That's why evacuations 00:23:48.579 --> 00:23:50.759 are happening. Heavy rainfall is also a threat 00:23:50.759 --> 00:23:53.099 for the Turks and Kaikos and the Bahamas, leading 00:23:53.099 --> 00:23:55.099 to potential flash floods there. And further 00:23:55.099 --> 00:23:57.660 up the U .S. coast. Interests along the mid -Atlantic, 00:23:57.900 --> 00:24:00.130 southern New England coasts and Bermuda. need 00:24:00.130 --> 00:24:03.150 to monitor Aaron's progress closely for strong 00:24:03.150 --> 00:24:05.289 winds, possibly arriving Thursday and Friday, 00:24:05.910 --> 00:24:07.750 along with those dangerous coastal conditions. 00:24:08.049 --> 00:24:10.809 And it's a long event. Yes, that's crucial. It's 00:24:10.809 --> 00:24:13.410 a long duration event. That increased wave energy 00:24:13.410 --> 00:24:15.910 and potential surge will affect multiple high 00:24:15.910 --> 00:24:18.430 tide cycles, making coastal flooding and erosion 00:24:18.430 --> 00:24:21.309 worse over several days. So what should people 00:24:21.309 --> 00:24:24.349 do? Follow advice from your local emergency managers 00:24:24.349 --> 00:24:27.609 and authorities. Listen to lifeguards. Heed all 00:24:27.609 --> 00:24:30.009 warnings and watches issued for your area. Know 00:24:30.009 --> 00:24:31.950 the difference between a watch and a warning. 00:24:32.150 --> 00:24:35.450 Yes. A watch means be prepared. Conditions are 00:24:35.450 --> 00:24:38.329 possible. A warning means take action. Conditions 00:24:38.329 --> 00:24:41.140 are expected or imminent. And please remember 00:24:41.140 --> 00:24:43.440 how dangerous even shallow water can be with 00:24:43.440 --> 00:24:45.740 these powerful currents. Even knee deep? Even 00:24:45.740 --> 00:24:48.660 knee deep. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:24:48.660 --> 00:24:51.460 Administration, NRAA, through the National Hurricane 00:24:51.460 --> 00:24:54.339 Center, has fantastic resources online about 00:24:54.339 --> 00:24:57.160 hurricane preparedness. Use them. Make a plan. 00:24:57.420 --> 00:25:00.740 Be ready. Great advice. Stay informed. Stay prepared. 00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:04.980 Hashtag hashtag outro. Wow, what a really thorough 00:25:04.980 --> 00:25:06.519 look at everything happening in the Atlantic 00:25:06.519 --> 00:25:08.880 right now. We've seen how hurricane Aaron, even 00:25:08.880 --> 00:25:11.880 with some intensity ups and downs, poses this 00:25:11.880 --> 00:25:14.400 really significant widespread threat, mainly 00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:16.980 because of its incredible size. Yeah, that size 00:25:16.980 --> 00:25:19.839 factor is key. Yeah, driving dangerous surf, 00:25:20.299 --> 00:25:22.740 rip currents, and that critical storm surge potential. 00:25:23.220 --> 00:25:25.599 It really challenges how we usually think about 00:25:25.599 --> 00:25:27.490 hurricane danger, doesn't it? It really does. 00:25:27.609 --> 00:25:29.890 It forces a broader perspective. And we've also 00:25:29.890 --> 00:25:32.009 touched on those other systems brewing, just 00:25:32.009 --> 00:25:34.890 reminding us the season is active and far from 00:25:34.890 --> 00:25:38.029 over. Indeed. Understanding these dynamics, the 00:25:38.029 --> 00:25:40.450 forecasting challenges, it helps appreciate the 00:25:40.450 --> 00:25:43.450 sheer scale of these events and really the constant 00:25:43.450 --> 00:25:46.230 need for vigilance. So as you, our listener, 00:25:46.589 --> 00:25:48.829 reflect on our discussion today about Erin, about 00:25:48.829 --> 00:25:51.380 forecasting. Maybe consider this. We often focus 00:25:51.380 --> 00:25:53.740 on the peak, right? The strongest win, the highest 00:25:53.740 --> 00:25:55.799 point. But Erin is showing us that sometimes 00:25:55.799 --> 00:25:57.640 the biggest impact comes from something less 00:25:57.640 --> 00:26:00.859 obvious, like its sheer breadth. The overall 00:26:00.859 --> 00:26:04.359 footprint. Exactly. So how might that apply elsewhere 00:26:04.359 --> 00:26:06.859 in your life? When you're looking at complex 00:26:06.859 --> 00:26:08.960 information, maybe it's financial news, maybe 00:26:08.960 --> 00:26:12.359 a social issue, a work project. Are you maybe 00:26:12.359 --> 00:26:14.619 focusing too much on the peak intensity, the 00:26:14.619 --> 00:26:18.279 headline number, while a larger, maybe quieter 00:26:18.279 --> 00:26:20.660 breadth of influence is actually shaping the 00:26:20.660 --> 00:26:22.819 real outcome? That's a fascinating thought. What 00:26:22.819 --> 00:26:25.019 seemingly minor details, once you understand 00:26:25.019 --> 00:26:27.579 them, actually reveal the bigger picture? Something 00:26:27.579 --> 00:26:29.980 to think about. Thank you so much for joining 00:26:29.980 --> 00:26:32.579 us on this Meteorology Matters podcast. And a 00:26:32.579 --> 00:26:34.920 huge thank you to our expert for sharing such 00:26:34.920 --> 00:26:37.980 invaluable, detailed insights today. Always a 00:26:37.980 --> 00:26:39.460 pleasure. Glad I could help break it down. And 00:26:39.460 --> 00:26:41.640 remember, if you want to stay even more informed 00:26:41.640 --> 00:26:44.519 with real time updates, do follow meteorologist 00:26:44.519 --> 00:26:47.380 Rob Jones on Instagram. He's just meteorologist 00:26:47.380 --> 00:26:50.180 to find on TikTok. He's TV meteorologist. And 00:26:50.180 --> 00:26:52.619 on YouTube, look for Rob Jones Hurricane. That's 00:26:52.619 --> 00:26:55.099 also where you can find our entire Meteorology 00:26:55.099 --> 00:26:58.250 Matters podcast playlist. Stay safe out there, 00:26:58.450 --> 00:27:00.470 stay informed, and we'll catch you next time 00:27:00.470 --> 00:27:02.029 on Meteorology Matters.