WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.520 Imagine standing on a coastline, you know, the 00:00:02.520 --> 00:00:05.759 air just thick with anticipation. You can feel 00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:09.679 the sheer raw power of the ocean as these massive 00:00:09.679 --> 00:00:13.119 waves crash ashore. It's such a primal force, 00:00:13.320 --> 00:00:15.699 really a reminder of nature's might, even when 00:00:15.699 --> 00:00:18.399 the storm itself is like hundreds of miles away. 00:00:18.859 --> 00:00:20.379 Absolutely. That energy travels incredibly far. 00:00:20.399 --> 00:00:22.620 And that's precisely the kind of visceral impact 00:00:22.620 --> 00:00:24.699 that many folks along the U .S. East Coast are 00:00:24.699 --> 00:00:27.660 probably experiencing right now. Welcome, everyone, 00:00:27.660 --> 00:00:29.539 to the Meteorology Matters podcast. Glad to be 00:00:29.539 --> 00:00:32.079 here. Today we're taking a deep dive into something 00:00:32.079 --> 00:00:34.320 that's really been making headlines, even from 00:00:34.320 --> 00:00:38.500 a distance. Hurricane Aaron. It's quite a dynamic, 00:00:38.880 --> 00:00:40.920 powerful system. It really has been fascinating 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:43.500 to watch, meteorologically speaking. Yeah. It's 00:00:43.500 --> 00:00:46.399 captivated meteorologists, definitely concerned 00:00:46.399 --> 00:00:48.679 coastal communities, even from way offshore. 00:00:49.079 --> 00:00:51.420 And while its current path looks incredibly fortunate 00:00:51.420 --> 00:00:53.859 for many. Extremely fortunate. Erin gives us 00:00:53.859 --> 00:00:56.340 this crucial, almost textbook chance to understand 00:00:56.340 --> 00:00:58.579 a phenomenon that seems to be, well, more and 00:00:58.579 --> 00:01:01.280 more prevalent and concerning in recent decades. 00:01:01.939 --> 00:01:04.859 Rapid intensification. That's the key takeaway 00:01:04.859 --> 00:01:07.200 from this event, I think, beyond the immediate 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:09.840 forecast. Exactly. So we're going to go beyond 00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:12.379 just the latest forecast track for Erin and really 00:01:12.379 --> 00:01:14.640 explore why understanding these accelerating 00:01:14.640 --> 00:01:17.280 trends isn't just for weather geeks like us. 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:20.219 Right. It impacts everyone. It's vital for anyone 00:01:20.219 --> 00:01:22.359 living near the coast, for emergency planning. 00:01:22.349 --> 00:01:26.250 really for anyone just curious about our changing 00:01:26.250 --> 00:01:28.829 planet and the forces shaping its climate and 00:01:28.829 --> 00:01:31.870 to guide us through this complex but absolutely 00:01:31.870 --> 00:01:34.739 fascinating and critical material. We have our 00:01:34.739 --> 00:01:37.040 expert. Thank you. Yeah, what we're seeing with 00:01:37.040 --> 00:01:39.340 Aaron, it isn't just another powerful storm. 00:01:39.500 --> 00:01:42.280 It really is a living, breathing example of some 00:01:42.280 --> 00:01:44.319 pretty significant shifts in our global weather 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:47.760 patterns. So my aim today is really to help you 00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:50.260 connect the dots, maybe offer some broader context 00:01:50.260 --> 00:01:53.060 and a scientific underpinning of these incredible 00:01:53.060 --> 00:01:55.900 atmospheric processes. Okay. And ultimately try 00:01:55.900 --> 00:01:57.939 to understand what it all means for you. OK, 00:01:58.099 --> 00:02:01.019 so let's unpack this, starting with Hurricane 00:02:01.019 --> 00:02:04.640 Aaron itself. It's been, well, truly captivating, 00:02:04.879 --> 00:02:08.500 if a bit concerning, to watch unfold. From a 00:02:08.500 --> 00:02:10.599 meteorologist's standpoint, what's the very latest 00:02:10.599 --> 00:02:12.939 picture, especially considering that really dramatic 00:02:12.939 --> 00:02:15.259 initial strengthening? Yeah, you're right to 00:02:15.259 --> 00:02:19.409 flag that initial strengthening. It was... Remarkable 00:02:19.409 --> 00:02:21.469 is probably the word. Right. Just yesterday, 00:02:21.710 --> 00:02:24.250 the atmospheric conditions just converged in 00:02:24.250 --> 00:02:26.810 this stunning way, really allowing Hurricane 00:02:26.810 --> 00:02:29.210 Aaron to literally blow up into a Category 5 00:02:29.210 --> 00:02:31.789 storm. Just like that? Pretty much. The speed 00:02:31.789 --> 00:02:34.310 of that transformation was, well, truly something. 00:02:34.449 --> 00:02:36.909 It was, in fact, one of the fastest intensifications 00:02:36.909 --> 00:02:39.550 ever observed. Wow. And just to put that into 00:02:39.550 --> 00:02:41.629 perspective for you, the central pressure recorded 00:02:41.629 --> 00:02:44.439 when it peaked was extremely low. Nostalgicly 00:02:44.439 --> 00:02:46.479 low, actually. It was the second lowest ever 00:02:46.479 --> 00:02:48.460 recorded for an August hurricane. Second lowest? 00:02:48.580 --> 00:02:51.080 What was the first? The only storm that surpassed 00:02:51.080 --> 00:02:53.680 it in August was Hurricane Allen way back in 00:02:53.680 --> 00:02:56.939 1980. Allen, right. I remember that one. So this 00:02:56.939 --> 00:02:59.580 kind of sudden, you know, explosive surge in 00:02:59.580 --> 00:03:02.520 power where a storm just seems to defy expectations 00:03:02.520 --> 00:03:05.400 and accelerated strength, that's precisely the 00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:07.560 heart of what we mean when we talk about rapid 00:03:07.560 --> 00:03:10.580 intensification. OK. The environment around Aaron 00:03:10.580 --> 00:03:12.900 was just perfectly primed. We saw incredibly 00:03:12.900 --> 00:03:15.219 warm ocean water, just loads of fuel. Right, 00:03:15.319 --> 00:03:18.099 the fuel. Coupled with very low vertical wind 00:03:18.099 --> 00:03:20.599 shear. So basically, very little disruption from 00:03:20.599 --> 00:03:23.060 winds at different heights, which let the storm's 00:03:23.060 --> 00:03:25.080 structure stay intact and its inner core just 00:03:25.080 --> 00:03:27.620 consolidate really efficiently. All the necessary 00:03:27.620 --> 00:03:29.759 ingredients just came together at exactly the 00:03:29.759 --> 00:03:32.240 right time, creating this stunning surge in strength. 00:03:33.060 --> 00:03:35.509 Whoa. It's a stark reminder of the immense energy 00:03:35.509 --> 00:03:37.849 in these systems when conditions align perfectly. 00:03:38.150 --> 00:03:40.969 And crucially, that terrifying intensity. Well, 00:03:41.289 --> 00:03:43.389 yeah, a stark illustration of the phenomenon. 00:03:43.389 --> 00:03:47.430 It has stayed offshore. So from a safety perspective, 00:03:47.550 --> 00:03:49.870 can you elaborate on Aaron's projected path? 00:03:50.229 --> 00:03:52.909 Explain why that specific track offers such a, 00:03:52.909 --> 00:03:55.650 well, profound sense of relief for so many people. 00:03:56.030 --> 00:03:57.870 Absolutely. And profoundly is the right word. 00:03:58.150 --> 00:04:01.810 We are. To put it mildly, extremely fortunate 00:04:01.810 --> 00:04:04.830 with Aaron's track so far. Currently, the storm 00:04:04.830 --> 00:04:07.789 is tracking about 150 miles offshore of Puerto 00:04:07.789 --> 00:04:12.110 Rico. But the really critical detail is its projected 00:04:12.110 --> 00:04:14.509 path over the next few days. Where is it headed? 00:04:15.050 --> 00:04:17.870 Aaron is forecast to make a pretty sharp turn 00:04:17.870 --> 00:04:19.870 north, well before it even gets close to the 00:04:19.870 --> 00:04:23.670 Bahamas. From there, it's going to essentially 00:04:23.670 --> 00:04:26.040 thread the needle. It'll split the gap between 00:04:26.040 --> 00:04:28.639 the U .S. East Coast, specifically around North 00:04:28.639 --> 00:04:31.439 Carolina, and the island of Bermuda. Ah, so right 00:04:31.439 --> 00:04:34.160 between them. Exactly. And ultimately, its trajectory 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:36.939 will take it well out to sea, away from any significant 00:04:36.939 --> 00:04:39.800 land masses. Who? The large -scale weather pattern 00:04:39.800 --> 00:04:42.079 that sort of orchestrated this specific path, 00:04:42.319 --> 00:04:45.279 it's an immense blessing for those densely populated 00:04:45.279 --> 00:04:47.379 coastal areas. Yeah, you say that again. I mean, 00:04:47.379 --> 00:04:49.939 if this powerful storm had veered even slightly 00:04:49.939 --> 00:04:52.339 west, closer to the Caribbean islands or the 00:04:52.339 --> 00:04:55.199 U .S. mainland. Yeah. the impacts could have 00:04:55.199 --> 00:04:57.240 been catastrophic. We're talking the difference 00:04:57.240 --> 00:04:59.680 between a near miss and a direct hit on major 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:03.139 population centers. This particular pattern has 00:05:03.139 --> 00:05:06.699 effectively acted like a giant atmospheric shepherd, 00:05:06.699 --> 00:05:10.120 you know, steering a truly monstrous storm away 00:05:10.120 --> 00:05:13.319 from direct land interaction. It really is the 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:16.459 best case scenario, given its initial incredible 00:05:16.459 --> 00:05:19.740 intensity. It means that while the storm is undeniably 00:05:19.740 --> 00:05:22.529 powerful, And yes, it will bring significant 00:05:22.529 --> 00:05:25.029 indirect impacts. Which we'll get to. Exactly. 00:05:25.370 --> 00:05:27.930 But it's not delivering the devastating winds, 00:05:28.069 --> 00:05:30.230 the storm surge, the torrential rain you get 00:05:30.230 --> 00:05:32.949 with a direct hit. And that dramatically changes 00:05:32.949 --> 00:05:35.069 the type of preparation and response needed. 00:05:35.550 --> 00:05:38.310 It's a huge sigh of relief for millions. Definitely 00:05:38.310 --> 00:05:40.569 good to hear it's staying offshore. But I understand 00:05:40.569 --> 00:05:43.709 it's also undergone some structural changes since 00:05:43.709 --> 00:05:46.069 it peaked. What's its current status? And how 00:05:46.069 --> 00:05:48.629 do those changes affect its intensity and maybe, 00:05:48.689 --> 00:05:51.370 more importantly, its overall footprint? That's 00:05:51.370 --> 00:05:53.209 a very perceptive question. It really highlights 00:05:53.209 --> 00:05:55.329 how dynamic these systems are. You're right. 00:05:55.389 --> 00:05:57.730 Aaron has weakened somewhat from that peak Category 00:05:57.730 --> 00:06:00.970 5 intensity. As of now, it's a powerful Category 00:06:00.970 --> 00:06:04.949 3 hurricane. But, and this is important, this 00:06:04.949 --> 00:06:07.089 change isn't necessarily a sign of the storm 00:06:07.089 --> 00:06:10.149 just dying out or becoming less of a threat overall. 00:06:10.290 --> 00:06:12.129 Right. It's more complex than that. Exactly. 00:06:12.769 --> 00:06:15.189 Instead, it's undergoing a very natural, the 00:06:15.189 --> 00:06:18.910 complex, cyclical process. It's called an eyewall 00:06:18.910 --> 00:06:21.519 replacement cycle. Okay, eye wall replacement. 00:06:21.660 --> 00:06:24.680 How does that work? So, try to visualize a hurricane 00:06:24.680 --> 00:06:26.759 like a donut. The hole is the eye, right? Right. 00:06:26.980 --> 00:06:29.100 And the donut itself is the eye wall. That's 00:06:29.100 --> 00:06:30.980 where the strongest winds and heaviest rains 00:06:30.980 --> 00:06:34.230 are. Got it. During an eyewall replacement cycle, 00:06:34.490 --> 00:06:37.569 the storm develops a new, larger eyewall structure 00:06:37.569 --> 00:06:40.569 that forms around the original inner one. Ah, 00:06:40.790 --> 00:06:43.290 okay, like rings on a tree almost. Kind of. And 00:06:43.290 --> 00:06:46.129 as this new outer eyewall forms and starts to 00:06:46.129 --> 00:06:48.689 contract, it essentially chokes off the original 00:06:48.689 --> 00:06:52.110 inner eyewall, causing it to dissipate. Now this 00:06:52.110 --> 00:06:54.610 process, as the energy gets redistributed over 00:06:54.610 --> 00:06:57.889 a larger area, typically causes the peak wind 00:06:57.889 --> 00:07:00.899 speeds to temporarily diminish. because the storm's 00:07:00.899 --> 00:07:03.500 energy is being spread out over a larger circulation 00:07:03.500 --> 00:07:06.920 diameter. Think of, like, a figure skater. When 00:07:06.920 --> 00:07:08.800 they pull their arms in, they spin faster, right? 00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:10.300 Yeah. When they extend their arms, they slow 00:07:10.300 --> 00:07:13.000 down. Aaron's doing something similar with its 00:07:13.000 --> 00:07:15.379 structure, just on a much grander, more powerful 00:07:15.379 --> 00:07:17.800 scale. Okay, makes sense. But what's crucial 00:07:17.800 --> 00:07:20.000 to understand here is that this doesn't necessarily 00:07:20.000 --> 00:07:23.379 mean a less dangerous storm overall. How so? 00:07:23.819 --> 00:07:26.509 Well... While the peak winds might drop temporarily, 00:07:27.009 --> 00:07:30.069 the storm's overall size expands. Ah, it gets 00:07:30.069 --> 00:07:32.930 bigger. Exactly. Which means it will move more 00:07:32.930 --> 00:07:35.509 water, potentially creating stronger and more 00:07:35.509 --> 00:07:37.709 widespread storm surge if it were closer to land. 00:07:37.750 --> 00:07:40.829 Right. And generating more significant and broader 00:07:40.829 --> 00:07:44.449 wave action and currents even far offshore. This 00:07:44.449 --> 00:07:46.810 process is also notoriously hard to forecast 00:07:46.810 --> 00:07:50.269 precisely the timing, the exact impact on intensity. 00:07:50.610 --> 00:07:52.790 It adds another layer of complexity. So it could 00:07:52.790 --> 00:07:55.740 even get stronger again. Absolutely. We actually 00:07:55.740 --> 00:07:58.779 expect Aaron's intensity to fluctuate a bit as 00:07:58.779 --> 00:08:00.839 it continues these cycles and encounters other 00:08:00.839 --> 00:08:04.560 factors. In fact, it is forecast to re -intensify 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:07.139 again as it turns north well east of the Bahamas 00:08:07.139 --> 00:08:11.420 even as it continues to grow in size. This expansion 00:08:11.420 --> 00:08:13.740 means the storm could still have a really far 00:08:13.740 --> 00:08:16.660 -reaching influence, even if its core stays way 00:08:16.660 --> 00:08:20.040 out at sea. So even with an offshore track and 00:08:20.040 --> 00:08:22.220 some, you know, temporary weakening, you're saying 00:08:22.220 --> 00:08:24.560 its sheer energy is still going to be felt far 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:28.040 and wide. What are the specific coastal impacts 00:08:28.040 --> 00:08:30.379 we should be preparing for along the U .S. East 00:08:30.379 --> 00:08:33.659 Coast and beyond? Indeed. That's precisely the 00:08:33.659 --> 00:08:36.269 message we need to get across clearly. Even an 00:08:36.269 --> 00:08:38.409 offshore hurricane of this magnitude, especially 00:08:38.409 --> 00:08:40.909 one that's expanded in size like Aaron has, puts 00:08:40.909 --> 00:08:42.809 a tremendous amount of kinetic energy into the 00:08:42.809 --> 00:08:45.389 ocean. Just churns it up. Exactly. And this energy 00:08:45.389 --> 00:08:47.929 primarily shows up as unusually strong and dangerous 00:08:47.929 --> 00:08:50.710 currents and large powerful wave swells which 00:08:50.710 --> 00:08:53.750 will propagate across vast distances. These impacts 00:08:53.750 --> 00:08:56.509 will be felt along a really wide range of coastlines, 00:08:56.769 --> 00:08:58.730 extending from the Caribbean all the way up to 00:08:58.730 --> 00:09:01.490 Canada, including the Bahamas and the entire 00:09:01.490 --> 00:09:04.169 U .S. East Coast. The whole coast? Basically. 00:09:04.389 --> 00:09:06.529 Pretty much. Let's break down the specifics for 00:09:06.529 --> 00:09:09.990 you. For Florida and the southeast coast, you 00:09:09.990 --> 00:09:12.389 can expect these ocean impacts to start showing 00:09:12.389 --> 00:09:15.250 up as early as Tuesday. Tuesday. The main areas 00:09:15.250 --> 00:09:17.950 of concern will stretch from roughly Palm Beach 00:09:17.950 --> 00:09:22.370 County northwards up to the Georgia border. Now 00:09:22.370 --> 00:09:24.769 the Bahamas will actually act as a bit of a physical 00:09:24.769 --> 00:09:27.529 barrier. Oh, interesting. Yeah. Which helps diminish 00:09:27.529 --> 00:09:29.870 some of the direct wave energy that South Florida 00:09:29.870 --> 00:09:32.149 might otherwise get. Right. But rip currents. 00:09:32.480 --> 00:09:35.179 Rip currents will remain a very significant and 00:09:35.179 --> 00:09:37.860 life -threatening concern for beaches throughout 00:09:37.860 --> 00:09:39.759 that entire region. Definitely need to watch 00:09:39.759 --> 00:09:41.639 out for those. And the surf will be elevated 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:45.419 too, making swimming hazardous. Then, as the 00:09:45.419 --> 00:09:48.220 storm tracks northward, the peak impacts will 00:09:48.220 --> 00:09:50.539 shift to the Mid -Atlantic and New England regions. 00:09:51.179 --> 00:09:53.220 That'll happen primarily on Wednesday and Thursday. 00:09:53.700 --> 00:09:55.919 Mid -Atlantic and New England? Wet Thursdays. 00:09:55.960 --> 00:09:58.299 Right. Our computer prediction maps are showing 00:09:58.299 --> 00:10:01.480 this peak wave energy and stronger current activity 00:10:01.480 --> 00:10:04.139 focused very clearly between Cape Hatteras in 00:10:04.139 --> 00:10:06.740 North Carolina and southern New England, particularly 00:10:06.740 --> 00:10:09.480 during Thursday morning. You'll see those impressive 00:10:09.480 --> 00:10:13.240 albeit dangerous swells rolling in. Okay. What 00:10:13.240 --> 00:10:16.649 about wind? Any direct wind impacts expected 00:10:16.649 --> 00:10:19.330 on land? In terms of fringe wind effects, so 00:10:19.330 --> 00:10:21.950 we're talking the outer bands, not hurricane 00:10:21.950 --> 00:10:24.490 force winds. Right, not the core. Exactly. Eastern 00:10:24.490 --> 00:10:26.870 North Carolina, the Virginia Tidewater region, 00:10:27.389 --> 00:10:29.610 and maybe the Delmarva Peninsula are the most 00:10:29.610 --> 00:10:32.049 likely U .S. locations to feel some of those 00:10:32.049 --> 00:10:35.289 effects. Probably around Wednesday. Okay. Now, 00:10:35.509 --> 00:10:37.610 nothing severe or damaging is expected in those 00:10:37.610 --> 00:10:40.070 areas, but you'll likely feel a noticeable difference 00:10:40.070 --> 00:10:42.950 in the wind, a distinct indication that a strong, 00:10:43.169 --> 00:10:45.690 broad storm is churning offshore. A reminder 00:10:45.690 --> 00:10:48.070 it's out there. Precisely. The good news is by 00:10:48.070 --> 00:10:50.190 Friday, Aaron should be moving well out to sea, 00:10:50.629 --> 00:10:52.370 which is excellent news for the weekend. Ah, 00:10:52.490 --> 00:10:54.210 good. This means the weekend along the beaches 00:10:54.210 --> 00:10:56.309 should look much finer for most areas that felt 00:10:56.309 --> 00:10:58.809 its influence earlier in the week. Conditions 00:10:58.809 --> 00:11:01.450 should slowly start returning to normal. That's 00:11:01.450 --> 00:11:03.830 absolutely crucial information for anyone with 00:11:03.830 --> 00:11:06.009 beach plans or coastal activities this week. 00:11:06.470 --> 00:11:10.309 It really sounds like vigilance is key. So what's 00:11:10.309 --> 00:11:12.370 your strongest safety message for our listeners 00:11:12.370 --> 00:11:15.850 given these expected far -reaching impacts? My 00:11:15.850 --> 00:11:19.730 strongest and most urgent advice is this. Anyone 00:11:19.730 --> 00:11:23.230 planning beach activities. swimming, surfing, 00:11:23.490 --> 00:11:25.870 even just wading or any boating activities this 00:11:25.870 --> 00:11:29.029 week, you absolutely must pay close attention 00:11:29.029 --> 00:11:32.129 to instructions from local harbor masters, lifeguards 00:11:32.129 --> 00:11:36.309 and emergency services. The currents along the 00:11:36.309 --> 00:11:39.250 coastlines, I just mentioned, will be unusually 00:11:39.250 --> 00:11:42.210 strong, unpredictable and genuinely dangerous 00:11:42.210 --> 00:11:44.889 till Aaron moves well out to sea. This isn't 00:11:44.889 --> 00:11:46.690 just about the size of the waves you can see. 00:11:46.730 --> 00:11:49.710 It's about powerful, often unseen currents that 00:11:49.710 --> 00:11:51.929 can pull you away from shore. with alarming speed. 00:11:51.990 --> 00:11:54.929 Right, the rip currents. Exactly. And specifically 00:11:54.929 --> 00:11:56.730 for rip currents, and this is a critical safety 00:11:56.730 --> 00:11:58.809 rule that saves lives if you do find yourself 00:11:58.809 --> 00:12:00.750 caught in one, the most important thing is to 00:12:00.750 --> 00:12:03.509 remain calm. Don't panic. Don't panic. Do not 00:12:03.509 --> 00:12:05.509 try to fight the current and swim directly back 00:12:05.509 --> 00:12:07.529 to shore against it. That will only exhaust you. 00:12:07.830 --> 00:12:11.210 Instead, the correct life -saving action is to 00:12:11.210 --> 00:12:13.830 swim parallel to the beach. Parallel, OK. Rip 00:12:13.830 --> 00:12:16.289 currents are typically narrow. So by swimming 00:12:16.289 --> 00:12:18.570 parallel, you'll soon swim out of that narrow 00:12:18.570 --> 00:12:21.240 current and into calmer water. From there, you 00:12:21.240 --> 00:12:23.980 can then safely swim ashore. Swim parallel, then 00:12:23.980 --> 00:12:26.960 swim in. Exactly. It's a simple rule, but it 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:29.299 is unequivocally effective and can be the difference 00:12:29.299 --> 00:12:32.019 between a close call and a tragedy. Always check 00:12:32.019 --> 00:12:34.399 local conditions and respect those warning flags. 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.460 Excellent. Truly vital advice. We hope everyone 00:12:37.460 --> 00:12:41.700 takes that to heart. Beyond Erin, which is certainly 00:12:41.700 --> 00:12:44.460 grabbing the headlines, are there any other systems 00:12:44.460 --> 00:12:47.179 out there that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:12:47.179 --> 00:12:49.600 Administration's National Hurricane Center is 00:12:49.600 --> 00:12:52.200 keeping an eye on? Yes, there are a couple of 00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:54.039 other systems worth a brief mention. We never 00:12:54.039 --> 00:12:55.740 just focus on the one storm, right? We're always 00:12:55.740 --> 00:12:59.120 scanning the horizon. Always. So offshore of 00:12:59.120 --> 00:13:01.039 Cape Hatteras, the National Hurricane Center 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:03.399 is currently monitoring what they describe as 00:13:03.399 --> 00:13:06.419 a low -probability, non -tropical low -pressure 00:13:06.419 --> 00:13:09.220 system. Yeah, starting out that way. It has a 00:13:09.220 --> 00:13:12.139 slight chance, maybe 10 to 20 percent, of taking 00:13:12.139 --> 00:13:15.179 on some brief tropical or subtropical characteristics 00:13:15.179 --> 00:13:17.940 today or tomorrow. OK. But it's expected to be 00:13:17.940 --> 00:13:20.679 quickly swept out to sea. It might briefly become 00:13:20.679 --> 00:13:23.799 a depression, maybe even get a name. But the 00:13:23.799 --> 00:13:25.860 good news is it's not expected to affect land 00:13:25.860 --> 00:13:28.919 at all. It'll be very sure lived if it even develops. 00:13:29.360 --> 00:13:32.039 OK, so nothing major there. What else? Then there's 00:13:32.039 --> 00:13:34.799 what many are starting to call the next African 00:13:34.799 --> 00:13:37.470 system. There's a disturbance currently way out 00:13:37.470 --> 00:13:40.409 in the Far Eastern Atlantic. One of those long 00:13:40.409 --> 00:13:43.970 track waves. Exactly. Some, though definitely 00:13:43.970 --> 00:13:46.649 not all, computer forecast models are showing 00:13:46.649 --> 00:13:48.909 it could develop significantly by the end of 00:13:48.909 --> 00:13:51.960 the week. enough to potentially become a disruptive 00:13:51.960 --> 00:13:53.940 system down the road. Where would it be by then? 00:13:54.139 --> 00:13:56.460 The National Hurricane Center is currently highlighting 00:13:56.460 --> 00:13:59.120 a large potential development area for later 00:13:59.120 --> 00:14:01.399 in the week, when this disturbance is expected 00:14:01.399 --> 00:14:03.659 to be approaching the Caribbean islands. Approaching 00:14:03.659 --> 00:14:06.860 the Caribbean, okay. Now for next weekend, there's 00:14:06.860 --> 00:14:09.639 currently a significant lack of consensus in 00:14:09.639 --> 00:14:12.139 the various computer forecasts. It's really all 00:14:12.139 --> 00:14:15.139 over the place. Oh! Some predictions take the 00:14:15.139 --> 00:14:17.730 system north. kind of following a path similar 00:14:17.730 --> 00:14:20.110 to Aaron's, recurbing out to sea. That'd be good. 00:14:20.429 --> 00:14:22.830 Others, however, take it west, directly into 00:14:22.830 --> 00:14:25.029 the Caribbean Islands, which would obviously 00:14:25.029 --> 00:14:27.230 be a much more concerning scenario. Definitely. 00:14:27.649 --> 00:14:30.909 We absolutely need this disturbance to develop 00:14:30.909 --> 00:14:33.629 a bit more, get more organized, before the models 00:14:33.629 --> 00:14:36.169 can offer more consistent and reliable forecasts. 00:14:36.730 --> 00:14:39.070 They need something more defined to latch onto. 00:14:39.269 --> 00:14:43.889 Makes sense. But I have to stress this. We never 00:14:43.889 --> 00:14:47.450 ever discount these kinds of systems automatically 00:14:47.450 --> 00:14:50.610 this time of year. August and September are prime 00:14:50.610 --> 00:14:53.929 time for these long track African waves to develop 00:14:53.929 --> 00:14:56.669 into major hurricanes. Right, historically. Exactly. 00:14:57.289 --> 00:14:59.149 It's precisely the type of system that can cause 00:14:59.149 --> 00:15:01.289 significant problems for land masses down the 00:15:01.289 --> 00:15:03.750 line. So it will definitely bear watching very 00:15:03.750 --> 00:15:05.429 closely over the next few days. We'll keep an 00:15:05.429 --> 00:15:07.129 eye on it. You know what's truly fascinating 00:15:07.129 --> 00:15:09.620 here with Erin? beyond its immediate impacts 00:15:09.620 --> 00:15:12.539 and current track, is that initial, incredibly 00:15:12.539 --> 00:15:14.860 rapid intensification. Yeah, that jump to cat 00:15:14.860 --> 00:15:17.960 five. Right. And this leads us to a really crucial 00:15:17.960 --> 00:15:20.340 question that meteorologists and climate scientists 00:15:20.340 --> 00:15:24.200 are wrestling with. What exactly is rapid intensification? 00:15:24.779 --> 00:15:27.159 And maybe more importantly, why are we hearing 00:15:27.159 --> 00:15:29.700 so much more about it now? Especially when we 00:15:29.700 --> 00:15:32.200 look at the historical context and the findings 00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:34.259 from recent scientific studies. That's a perfect 00:15:34.259 --> 00:15:36.779 lead -in. Because when we talk about a storm 00:15:36.779 --> 00:15:39.299 blowing up into a category five overnight, it's 00:15:39.299 --> 00:15:42.600 not just like a dramatic phrase. It's a specific, 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:45.700 measurable thing, isn't it? It is. So just to 00:15:45.700 --> 00:15:47.440 make sure we're all on the same page, what is 00:15:47.440 --> 00:15:50.340 the precise formal meteorological definition 00:15:50.340 --> 00:15:53.080 that NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:55.679 Administration uses for rapid intensification? 00:15:55.879 --> 00:15:59.139 Right. NOAA specifically defines rapid intensification, 00:15:59.279 --> 00:16:01.960 or RI, as we often call it, as an increase in 00:16:01.960 --> 00:16:04.340 a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained wind speed 00:16:04.399 --> 00:16:07.820 35 miles per hour or more. within a 24 -hour 00:16:07.820 --> 00:16:10.360 period. 35 miles per hour in 24 hours, okay. 00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:12.940 Exactly. And that specific threshold, 35 and 00:16:12.940 --> 00:16:15.700 24, it isn't arbitrary. It's a carefully chosen 00:16:15.700 --> 00:16:17.720 benchmark. Why that number? Well, it's critical 00:16:17.720 --> 00:16:20.059 because it allows forecasters to quantitatively 00:16:20.059 --> 00:16:23.220 assess and categorize these sudden, dangerous 00:16:23.220 --> 00:16:25.980 increases in strength. When a storm meets or 00:16:25.980 --> 00:16:28.899 exceeds that criterion, it signals a significant, 00:16:29.159 --> 00:16:31.580 swift escalation in the threat level. Oh, like 00:16:31.580 --> 00:16:34.639 a red flag. Precisely. It demands immediate attention 00:16:34.639 --> 00:16:37.100 and triggers specific protocols calls for emergency 00:16:37.100 --> 00:16:40.659 response efforts. It serves as a clear objective 00:16:40.659 --> 00:16:42.960 benchmark for when a storm becomes far more dangerous, 00:16:43.059 --> 00:16:45.759 far more quickly, which really challenges our 00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:48.100 traditional lead times for preparation. Right. 00:16:48.159 --> 00:16:50.759 So it's not just a number. It's a direct indicator 00:16:50.759 --> 00:16:54.059 of elevated risk to life and property. That definition 00:16:54.059 --> 00:16:56.179 really helps put it into perspective. And like 00:16:56.179 --> 00:16:58.080 you said, it's not just theoretical or a number 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:00.799 on a chart. We've unfortunately seen some truly 00:17:00.799 --> 00:17:04.000 devastating real -world examples of rapid intensification 00:17:04.000 --> 00:17:06.279 recently. Can you share some of those just to 00:17:06.279 --> 00:17:08.900 illustrate the profound, often tragic impact? 00:17:09.279 --> 00:17:11.119 Certainly. And the real -world impact is, yeah, 00:17:11.339 --> 00:17:13.519 profound and often devastating, leaving communities 00:17:13.519 --> 00:17:15.539 very little time to react. Consider Hurricane 00:17:15.539 --> 00:17:20.799 Lee just last year, 2023. Lee, yeah. Intense. 00:17:21.079 --> 00:17:23.490 Astonishing example. Lee went from being barely 00:17:23.490 --> 00:17:25.910 a hurricane, winds around 80 miles per hour, 00:17:26.190 --> 00:17:30.089 to a top tier category five monster with 155 00:17:30.089 --> 00:17:33.829 mile per hour winds in just 24 hours. Yeah, that's 00:17:33.829 --> 00:17:37.579 a 75 mile per hour. Jump. Exactly. 75 miles per 00:17:37.579 --> 00:17:40.099 hour increase. More than double the RI threshold 00:17:40.099 --> 00:17:42.839 in just one day. Imagine trying to prepare for 00:17:42.839 --> 00:17:44.960 that kind of escalation. Unbelievable. Then there's 00:17:44.960 --> 00:17:48.339 Hurricane Maria back in 2017. An incredibly impactful 00:17:48.339 --> 00:17:50.960 and tragic example. Maria in Puerto Rico. That's 00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:53.259 the one. Yeah. Before it devastated Puerto Rico, 00:17:53.359 --> 00:17:55.859 Maria accelerated from a strong category one, 00:17:55.980 --> 00:17:58.819 about 90 mile per hour winds, to a catastrophic 00:17:58.819 --> 00:18:02.619 160 mile per hour monster in a mere 15 hours. 00:18:02.819 --> 00:18:05.660 15 hours. Not even a full day. Not even the speed 00:18:05.660 --> 00:18:07.880 and intensity of that strengthening left communities 00:18:07.880 --> 00:18:10.299 on the island with almost no time to adequately 00:18:10.299 --> 00:18:13.259 prepare or evacuate. The result was just widespread 00:18:13.259 --> 00:18:15.460 destruction, a humanitarian crisis. Terrible. 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:17.819 Ultimately linked to nearly 3 ,000 fatalities, 00:18:18.339 --> 00:18:21.259 both direct and indirect. It really stands as 00:18:21.259 --> 00:18:23.759 a chilling testament to R .I.'s destructive potential. 00:18:24.019 --> 00:18:26.160 And these aren't just like isolated incidents 00:18:26.160 --> 00:18:28.859 from the last few years. Not at all. The year 00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:31.220 2020, for example, that record breaking hurricane 00:18:31.220 --> 00:18:34.640 season. Six of those storms rapidly intensified. 00:18:34.920 --> 00:18:38.039 Hannah, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma, Delta. Six 00:18:38.039 --> 00:18:40.779 in one year? Six. And since then, we've continued 00:18:40.779 --> 00:18:43.539 to see RI play a critical role in some of the 00:18:43.539 --> 00:18:45.880 most deadly and costly storms hitting the U .S. 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:49.519 and the Caribbean. Think about Ida in 2021. Ida, 00:18:49.640 --> 00:18:52.819 yeah, Louisiana. Ian in 2022 in Florida. Devastating. 00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:55.880 And Adelia just last year, 2023, also hitting 00:18:55.880 --> 00:18:59.099 Florida. These cases visibly show that RI isn't 00:18:59.099 --> 00:19:02.160 just some scientific curiosity. It is a critical, 00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:04.700 often underestimated factor in the most destructive 00:19:04.700 --> 00:19:07.859 hurricanes we face. It correctly translates into 00:19:07.859 --> 00:19:10.819 human suffering and huge economic loss. Those 00:19:10.819 --> 00:19:13.200 examples are incredibly sobering, really highlights 00:19:13.200 --> 00:19:16.019 the human cost. So beyond the sheer power, what 00:19:16.019 --> 00:19:17.720 are the critical challenges that this phenomenon 00:19:17.720 --> 00:19:20.420 poses specifically for communities and for the 00:19:20.420 --> 00:19:22.380 meteorologists and emergency managers trying 00:19:22.380 --> 00:19:24.920 to protect them? Why is rapid intensification 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:27.539 so uniquely concerning? Well, the challenges 00:19:27.539 --> 00:19:29.980 are multifaceted and incredibly serious. They 00:19:29.980 --> 00:19:31.900 really stretch our preparedness and forecasting 00:19:31.900 --> 00:19:33.900 capabilities right to their limits. Firstly, 00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:37.019 and maybe most critically, it creates immense 00:19:37.019 --> 00:19:40.220 difficulty for the public response. How so? When 00:19:40.220 --> 00:19:42.740 a storm undergoes rapid intensification, especially 00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:45.619 as it nears land, it just compresses the timeline 00:19:45.619 --> 00:19:47.180 for critical decision -making. Right. You have 00:19:47.180 --> 00:19:50.299 less time. Much less time. People on the storm's 00:19:50.299 --> 00:19:52.160 path are left with very little time to make life 00:19:52.160 --> 00:19:55.049 -saving choices, should they evacuate. Is there 00:19:55.049 --> 00:19:57.329 even time to evacuate? Can they secure their 00:19:57.329 --> 00:19:59.589 homes? Is it safer maybe to shelter in place 00:19:59.589 --> 00:20:02.809 now? That window for critical action just shrinks 00:20:02.809 --> 00:20:06.009 dramatically, often from days down to mere hours. 00:20:06.690 --> 00:20:08.589 A storm that looked like a manageable Category 00:20:08.589 --> 00:20:11.150 1 might suddenly become a devastating Category 00:20:11.150 --> 00:20:14.160 4 overnight. It catches communities completely 00:20:14.160 --> 00:20:16.559 off guard, leaves insufficient time for people 00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:19.799 to follow safety protocols. This sudden escalation 00:20:19.799 --> 00:20:22.259 can lead to delays in evacuation or even make 00:20:22.259 --> 00:20:24.759 it completely unsafe to evacuate, putting lives 00:20:24.759 --> 00:20:27.619 at extreme risk. That's terrifying. Secondly, 00:20:27.940 --> 00:20:30.140 it presents significant forecasting hurdles for 00:20:30.140 --> 00:20:33.579 us, for meteorologists. It amplifies what's already 00:20:33.579 --> 00:20:35.980 a really complex task. Intensity forecasting 00:20:35.980 --> 00:20:39.200 is hard anyway. Yeah, exactly. Predicting the 00:20:39.200 --> 00:20:42.319 exact intensity of a tropical cyclone. especially 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:44.880 its peak winds, and how it behaves during rapid 00:20:44.880 --> 00:20:47.279 changes is arguably one of the hardest parts 00:20:47.279 --> 00:20:50.319 of hurricane forecasting. When a storm is rapidly 00:20:50.319 --> 00:20:53.960 intensifying, that challenge is amplified exponentially. 00:20:54.220 --> 00:20:56.769 Why is it so hard to predict? Our current numerical 00:20:56.769 --> 00:20:58.750 weather prediction models, they're constantly 00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:01.569 improving, but they still struggle to accurately 00:21:01.569 --> 00:21:04.569 capture the really fine -scale atmospheric and 00:21:04.569 --> 00:21:07.589 oceanic processes that drive RRI. The details 00:21:07.589 --> 00:21:09.809 matter. Immensely. So this makes it incredibly 00:21:09.809 --> 00:21:12.170 difficult to predict how severe the storm will 00:21:12.170 --> 00:21:14.910 actually be when it makes landfall, or even when 00:21:14.910 --> 00:21:17.369 it's still offshore but impacting the coast like 00:21:17.369 --> 00:21:20.490 Aaron is. This uncertainty then cascades down 00:21:20.490 --> 00:21:22.809 to emergency managers. Right, they need accurate 00:21:22.809 --> 00:21:25.710 forecasts to plan. Absolutely. It makes it far 00:21:25.710 --> 00:21:27.930 harder for them to adequately prepare resources, 00:21:28.430 --> 00:21:30.730 determining evacuation routes, figuring out shelter 00:21:30.730 --> 00:21:33.170 capacity, pre -positioning medical supplies, 00:21:33.390 --> 00:21:35.509 deploying first responders. They're essentially 00:21:35.509 --> 00:21:37.390 planning for a moving target that's accelerating 00:21:37.390 --> 00:21:40.569 its power at an unprecedented rate, often with 00:21:40.569 --> 00:21:42.789 less than 24 hours notice for the most dramatic 00:21:42.789 --> 00:21:46.410 shifts. And the bottom line, the undeniable truth 00:21:46.410 --> 00:21:49.170 is that the most damaging and destructive storms, 00:21:49.420 --> 00:21:52.400 The ones causing widespread devastation, catastrophic 00:21:52.400 --> 00:21:56.339 economic losses, tragic loss of life. They very 00:21:56.339 --> 00:21:59.220 often exhibit rapid intensification at some point 00:21:59.220 --> 00:22:02.319 in their life cycle. So R .I. is a hallmark of 00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:05.319 the worst storms. It often is. It transforms 00:22:05.319 --> 00:22:07.220 what might have been a manageable weather event 00:22:07.220 --> 00:22:10.319 into an extreme disaster, frequently with little 00:22:10.319 --> 00:22:12.839 warning for those directly in its path. This 00:22:12.839 --> 00:22:14.740 makes it a phenomenon that demands our utmost 00:22:14.740 --> 00:22:18.000 attention, understanding, and frankly, investment 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:20.380 in improved forecasting and preparedness. So 00:22:20.380 --> 00:22:22.859 if we look beyond these individual storms and 00:22:22.859 --> 00:22:25.000 look at the bigger picture, the trends, what 00:22:25.000 --> 00:22:26.839 does this all mean? When we look at the scientific 00:22:26.839 --> 00:22:29.619 data, is this rapid intensification something 00:22:29.619 --> 00:22:31.599 that's always happened with this frequency and 00:22:31.599 --> 00:22:35.039 intensity? Or are we truly seeing a new statistically 00:22:35.039 --> 00:22:37.940 significant trend emerging in our climate? That 00:22:37.940 --> 00:22:39.400 really is the million dollar question, isn't 00:22:39.400 --> 00:22:42.460 it? Unfortunately, recent very rigorous scientific 00:22:42.460 --> 00:22:44.240 research has provided a pretty clear answer. 00:22:44.359 --> 00:22:46.799 Oh, yeah. What did it find? There was a comprehensive 00:22:46.799 --> 00:22:49.779 study that meticulously analyzed an extensive 00:22:49.779 --> 00:22:54.200 data set, 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones, spanning 00:22:54.200 --> 00:22:57.119 a significant period from 1971 all the way to 00:22:57.119 --> 00:22:59.619 2020. That's a lot of storms over a long time. 00:22:59.839 --> 00:23:02.240 Exactly. And this research wasn't just a casual 00:23:02.240 --> 00:23:04.660 observation. It was specifically designed to 00:23:04.660 --> 00:23:07.119 definitively confirm what many scientists had 00:23:07.119 --> 00:23:10.519 suspected for years. These trends are not just 00:23:10.519 --> 00:23:13.059 anecdotal. They're not simply within the realm 00:23:13.059 --> 00:23:15.740 of natural variability. They're real. They are 00:23:15.740 --> 00:23:18.539 statistically significant and represent a fundamental 00:23:18.539 --> 00:23:21.500 shift. The scope was broad, looking at basin 00:23:21.500 --> 00:23:24.160 wide changes in the Atlantic, providing a truly 00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:26.539 comprehensive assessment of how these storms 00:23:26.539 --> 00:23:28.940 are evolving over decades. It's about finding 00:23:28.940 --> 00:23:32.079 the signal through the noise. Right. And what 00:23:32.079 --> 00:23:34.579 did that comprehensive assessment find? Can you 00:23:34.579 --> 00:23:36.940 quantify this increase for us? Maybe starting 00:23:36.940 --> 00:23:38.900 with the likelihood of a storm, say, becoming 00:23:38.900 --> 00:23:41.519 a major hurricane really quickly. Yeah, the findings 00:23:41.519 --> 00:23:44.799 are stark. Quite frankly, alarming. Leaves very 00:23:44.799 --> 00:23:47.039 little room for ambiguity. The study highlighted 00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:49.640 a dramatic increase in what we call major intensification. 00:23:49.660 --> 00:23:51.900 OK, what's that? That means a storm powering 00:23:51.900 --> 00:23:54.700 up from a category one or weaker hurricane to 00:23:54.700 --> 00:23:57.519 a major hurricane, which is category three or 00:23:57.519 --> 00:24:01.250 stronger in just 24 hours. Cat 1 to Cat 3 plus 00:24:01.250 --> 00:24:04.130 in a day. Exactly. In the last two decades, specifically 00:24:04.130 --> 00:24:07.690 2001 to 2020, storms were more than twice as 00:24:07.690 --> 00:24:10.210 likely to undergo this kind of rapid escalation 00:24:10.210 --> 00:24:12.269 compared to the earlier period. More than twice 00:24:12.269 --> 00:24:14.880 as likely. Yep. To put numbers on it, it happened 00:24:14.880 --> 00:24:18.039 8 .1 % of the time in that modern era compared 00:24:18.039 --> 00:24:20.680 to only 3 .2 % of the time during the historical 00:24:20.680 --> 00:24:25.160 period from 1971 to 1990. Wow. 3 .2 % up to 8 00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:28.299 .1%. That's a huge jump. It's a truly significant 00:24:28.299 --> 00:24:30.720 increase. A doubling of that specific risk in 00:24:30.720 --> 00:24:33.680 just a few decades. But it's crucial to understand 00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:36.380 it's not just these most extreme major hurricane 00:24:36.380 --> 00:24:38.759 cases that are changing. OK. The research found 00:24:38.759 --> 00:24:41.019 that storms, just in general, are intensifying 00:24:41.019 --> 00:24:43.079 faster than they used to across various time 00:24:43.079 --> 00:24:45.200 windows. So average intensification is up too? 00:24:45.259 --> 00:24:48.019 Yes. When we look at the mean maximum intensification 00:24:48.019 --> 00:24:50.440 rates, basically the average fastest intensification 00:24:50.440 --> 00:24:52.940 a storm achieves over a given period, the numbers 00:24:52.940 --> 00:24:55.740 are striking. Give us some numbers. OK. For 12 00:24:55.740 --> 00:24:58.140 -hour windows, the mean intensification rates 00:24:58.140 --> 00:25:01.859 increased by nearly 29%, went from about 12 .2 00:25:01.859 --> 00:25:04.880 knots historically to 15 .7 knots recently. Big 00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:08.140 knots. That's about 1 .15 mile per hour, right? 00:25:08.259 --> 00:25:09.880 That's right. So that's an increase of about 00:25:09.880 --> 00:25:12.680 four miles per hour in the average 12 -hour intensification 00:25:12.680 --> 00:25:15.640 speed. For 24 -hour windows, the increase was 00:25:15.640 --> 00:25:19.890 over 27%. from 17 .7 knots up to 22 .5 knots. 00:25:20.170 --> 00:25:22.509 That's nearly six miles per hour faster on average 00:25:22.509 --> 00:25:25.049 over 24 hours. Still significant. And for 36 00:25:25.049 --> 00:25:27.750 hour windows, we saw an increase of over 26 percent 00:25:27.750 --> 00:25:30.869 from 21 .3 knots to 26 .9 knots. These aren't 00:25:30.869 --> 00:25:33.069 minor fluctuations. These are average systemic 00:25:33.069 --> 00:25:35.930 increases across the board. It indicates a fundamental 00:25:35.930 --> 00:25:38.150 shift in how quickly storms gain strength. So 00:25:38.150 --> 00:25:40.130 it's not just the outliers getting more extreme, 00:25:40.170 --> 00:25:42.069 but the average storm is also getting stronger, 00:25:42.170 --> 00:25:44.369 faster. That's a big shift itself. But what about 00:25:44.369 --> 00:25:47.170 those truly extreme, potentially most damaging 00:25:47.170 --> 00:25:49.750 intensification events, have those seen an even 00:25:49.750 --> 00:25:51.670 more pronounced increase? Because that seems 00:25:51.670 --> 00:25:53.509 like where the most devastating impacts often 00:25:53.509 --> 00:25:55.529 come from. You're absolutely right to hone in 00:25:55.529 --> 00:25:57.710 on that. And yeah, it's here that the findings 00:25:57.710 --> 00:26:01.990 become even more concerning. The rarest but potentially 00:26:01.990 --> 00:26:05.789 most damaging intensification events, what we 00:26:05.789 --> 00:26:09.069 sometimes call the 99 .5th percentile. A really 00:26:09.069 --> 00:26:12.069 extreme end. Exactly. The most powerful sudden 00:26:12.069 --> 00:26:15.230 increases that historically occurred almost never 00:26:15.230 --> 00:26:18.190 air if. Those have seen even more pronounced 00:26:18.190 --> 00:26:20.750 increases. This is where the most devastating 00:26:20.750 --> 00:26:23.690 impacts often originate, precisely because they're 00:26:23.690 --> 00:26:26.170 so hard to anticipate and prepare for. So how 00:26:26.170 --> 00:26:28.329 much of those increase? For these extreme events, 00:26:28.609 --> 00:26:30.710 looking at 12 -hour windows, intensification 00:26:30.710 --> 00:26:34.069 increased by over 16 knots. For 24 -hour windows, 00:26:34.329 --> 00:26:37.509 also over 16 knots. And for 36 -hour windows, 00:26:37.930 --> 00:26:40.089 these extreme events saw gains of over 20 knots. 00:26:40.299 --> 00:26:43.140 Wow. So the worst are getting even worse, faster. 00:26:43.299 --> 00:26:45.099 That's what the data suggests. It means the most 00:26:45.099 --> 00:26:47.640 powerful, sudden, and therefore most dangerous 00:26:47.640 --> 00:26:50.539 increases in storm strength are becoming not 00:26:50.539 --> 00:26:52.900 only more common, but also significantly more 00:26:52.900 --> 00:26:55.119 extreme in their magnitude. OK. And it's not 00:26:55.119 --> 00:26:57.259 just about the absolute rates. The probabilities 00:26:57.259 --> 00:26:59.619 of exceeding certain dangerous thresholds have 00:26:59.619 --> 00:27:01.339 also gone up significantly. Like the odds are 00:27:01.339 --> 00:27:04.000 higher now. Exactly. It has become statistically 00:27:04.000 --> 00:27:07.259 more likely for storms to exceed specific intensification 00:27:07.259 --> 00:27:10.140 rates over time. For example, the probability 00:27:10.140 --> 00:27:13.180 of a storm intensifying by 50 knots or more within 00:27:13.180 --> 00:27:16.500 24 hours. 50 knots, that's cat one to cat three 00:27:16.500 --> 00:27:19.059 territory. Roughly, yeah. That probability grew 00:27:19.059 --> 00:27:22.980 from a low 2 .6 % in the historical era to 7 00:27:22.980 --> 00:27:26.519 .4 % in the modern era. 2 .6 to 7 .4, that's 00:27:26.519 --> 00:27:28.740 almost three times more likely. Approximately 00:27:28.740 --> 00:27:32.019 2 .8 times more likely, yes. Similarly, an even 00:27:32.019 --> 00:27:35.160 more extreme 65 knot intensification within 24 00:27:35.160 --> 00:27:37.619 hours, that's like going from a cat one to a 00:27:37.619 --> 00:27:39.950 storm. on Cat 4. Huge jump. That's now about 00:27:39.950 --> 00:27:42.369 4 .9 times more likely than it was historically. 00:27:42.750 --> 00:27:45.190 These aren't minor shifts. They are statistically 00:27:45.190 --> 00:27:48.029 robust, highly significant changes that really 00:27:48.029 --> 00:27:50.130 demand our urgent attention and adaptation. And 00:27:50.130 --> 00:27:51.829 that's reflected pretty starkly in the Saffir 00:27:51.829 --> 00:27:53.769 -Simpson categories too, isn't it? Storms are 00:27:53.769 --> 00:27:55.769 just jumping categories much faster than they 00:27:55.769 --> 00:27:57.710 used to, which again just shrinks that critical 00:27:57.710 --> 00:27:59.630 preparation window. That's absolutely correct. 00:27:59.730 --> 00:28:02.230 It's a direct consequence of these accelerating 00:28:02.230 --> 00:28:05.420 intensification rates. Modern tropical cyclones 00:28:05.420 --> 00:28:08.180 are now more than twice as likely to jump from 00:28:08.180 --> 00:28:11.799 a category one or weaker storm to a major hurricane 00:28:11.799 --> 00:28:15.019 category three or greater within just 24 or 36 00:28:15.019 --> 00:28:17.839 hours compared to historical periods. Twice as 00:28:17.839 --> 00:28:20.779 likely in 24 or 36 hours. Right. And if we look 00:28:20.779 --> 00:28:22.880 at an even shorter, more compressed 12 -hour 00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:25.500 window, that likelihood becomes more than three 00:28:25.500 --> 00:28:28.180 times as great. Three times in just 12 hours. 00:28:28.500 --> 00:28:30.960 Wow. It's a profound increase in the speed at 00:28:30.960 --> 00:28:33.480 which a relatively manageable storm can transform 00:28:33.480 --> 00:28:35.839 to a catastrophic threat. And the statistics 00:28:35.839 --> 00:28:39.140 back this up strongly. Very strongly. The statistical 00:28:39.140 --> 00:28:41.519 significance of these findings from a scientific 00:28:41.519 --> 00:28:44.000 standpoint is paramount. The study's analyses 00:28:44.000 --> 00:28:46.500 were so robust that they suggest it would have 00:28:46.500 --> 00:28:49.180 been, and I quote, statistically impossible to 00:28:49.180 --> 00:28:51.759 observe the sheer number of these rapid intensification 00:28:51.759 --> 00:28:55.079 events we've seen in the modern era if the underlying 00:28:55.079 --> 00:28:57.400 rates of intensification had not fundamentally 00:28:57.400 --> 00:28:59.660 changed from historical periods. Statistically 00:28:59.660 --> 00:29:02.140 impossible. That's a strong statement. It is. 00:29:02.200 --> 00:29:04.619 It means this isn't just a fluctuation within 00:29:04.619 --> 00:29:07.940 natural variability. It's a clear, observable, 00:29:08.279 --> 00:29:10.660 and statistically undeniable trend that falls 00:29:10.660 --> 00:29:13.579 outside the realm of what we'd based on the last 00:29:13.579 --> 00:29:15.940 half century of data. So connecting this to the 00:29:15.940 --> 00:29:18.740 bigger picture, it really shows that the hazards 00:29:18.740 --> 00:29:21.420 our coastlines face are truly evolving. They 00:29:21.420 --> 00:29:23.700 absolutely are. This raises the really important 00:29:23.700 --> 00:29:27.259 question, what's driving these alarming fundamental 00:29:27.259 --> 00:29:30.279 changes and how quickly hurricanes can power 00:29:30.279 --> 00:29:33.549 up? It feels like every conversation about powerful 00:29:33.549 --> 00:29:35.690 weather events eventually circles back to the 00:29:35.690 --> 00:29:39.029 ocean. Is that truly the case here? Is the ocean 00:29:39.029 --> 00:29:42.170 the primary driving force? It is absolutely foundational. 00:29:42.349 --> 00:29:44.829 The ocean isn't just a driving force, it is the 00:29:44.829 --> 00:29:47.009 critical fuel source for strengthening storms. 00:29:47.190 --> 00:29:50.200 The fuel tank. Exactly. To understand why, you 00:29:50.200 --> 00:29:52.160 have to think of tropal cyclones as these incredibly 00:29:52.160 --> 00:29:54.940 efficient massive heat engines. Their fundamental 00:29:54.940 --> 00:29:57.339 process is transporting excess warmth from the 00:29:57.339 --> 00:30:00.000 oceans and the atmosphere up to higher latitudes, 00:30:00.400 --> 00:30:02.460 releasing immense amounts of energy as they do 00:30:02.460 --> 00:30:05.039 it. Okay. Heat engines fueled by warm water. 00:30:05.480 --> 00:30:07.859 Precisely. And here's where the broader context, 00:30:08.000 --> 00:30:09.940 the global picture, becomes critically important. 00:30:10.089 --> 00:30:14.190 A staggering 90 % of the excess warming caused 00:30:14.190 --> 00:30:16.789 by human activity on this planet has gone directly 00:30:16.789 --> 00:30:21.210 into our oceans. 90%. 90%. This isn't a theoretical 00:30:21.210 --> 00:30:24.049 projection. It's an observed, measured reality. 00:30:24.529 --> 00:30:27.230 We have unequivocally seen a measurable increase 00:30:27.230 --> 00:30:29.690 in ocean temperatures, not just at the surface, 00:30:30.109 --> 00:30:32.329 but extending down to significant depths, what 00:30:32.329 --> 00:30:35.190 we call ocean heat content, or OHC. So it's not 00:30:35.190 --> 00:30:38.170 just skin deep. Not at all. This OHC provides 00:30:38.170 --> 00:30:40.730 a deep reservoir of energy for storms to tap 00:30:40.730 --> 00:30:43.569 into. The average global ocean surface temperatures 00:30:43.569 --> 00:30:46.769 have increased by about 0 .88 degrees Celsius 00:30:46.769 --> 00:30:50.329 from the pre -industrial period 1850 -1900 up 00:30:50.329 --> 00:30:53.269 to 2011 -2020. Almost a full degree Celsius. 00:30:53.509 --> 00:30:55.529 And a truly significant chunk of that warming 00:30:55.529 --> 00:30:58.549 0 .60 degrees Celsius has occurred just since 00:30:58.549 --> 00:31:01.569 1980. Most of it recently. Yes. And this year, 00:31:01.589 --> 00:31:03.490 for instance, we've seen oceans setting heat 00:31:03.490 --> 00:31:06.450 records month after month. forces the idea that 00:31:06.450 --> 00:31:08.589 temperatures are genuinely off the charts, well 00:31:08.589 --> 00:31:11.029 beyond historical norms. So the link seems pretty 00:31:11.029 --> 00:31:13.430 clear then. The conclusion is compelling and 00:31:13.430 --> 00:31:16.349 points to a direct causal link. The simultaneous 00:31:16.349 --> 00:31:19.269 observed increases in extreme sea surface temperatures 00:31:19.269 --> 00:31:23.049 and the documented maximum tropical cyclone intensification 00:31:23.049 --> 00:31:26.250 rates strongly suggest that human caused warming 00:31:26.250 --> 00:31:28.950 has already had a measurable, detectable impact 00:31:28.950 --> 00:31:31.809 on how fast these storms strengthen. Warmer ocean, 00:31:31.930 --> 00:31:35.319 more fuel, faster intensification. That's the 00:31:35.319 --> 00:31:38.039 core principle. A warmer ocean means more available 00:31:38.039 --> 00:31:40.019 energy for these heat engines, allowing them 00:31:40.019 --> 00:31:42.420 to spin up and intensify at speeds we really 00:31:42.420 --> 00:31:44.779 haven't seen with this frequency before. It's 00:31:44.779 --> 00:31:46.940 a direct, undeniable link between the warming 00:31:46.940 --> 00:31:49.220 planet and the increased hazard we're observing. 00:31:49.799 --> 00:31:52.160 So warmer oceans are feeding these monster storms, 00:31:52.339 --> 00:31:55.299 giving them more fuel to intensify faster. But 00:31:55.299 --> 00:31:57.400 what about where these storms are intensifying 00:31:57.400 --> 00:31:59.779 most rapidly? Has there been a noticeable shift 00:31:59.779 --> 00:32:02.299 in the geography of rapid intensification across 00:32:02.299 --> 00:32:04.480 the Atlantic basin? Because that would have huge 00:32:04.480 --> 00:32:06.380 implications for different coastal communities. 00:32:06.720 --> 00:32:08.799 Yes, that's another incredibly significant finding 00:32:08.799 --> 00:32:11.440 from the research. And it absolutely has critical 00:32:11.440 --> 00:32:13.339 implications for how different regions are affected 00:32:13.339 --> 00:32:16.279 and how we need to adapt our preparedness. OK, 00:32:16.440 --> 00:32:20.819 so where is it happening more or less? The locations 00:32:20.819 --> 00:32:23.380 where tropical cyclones are most likely to undergo 00:32:23.380 --> 00:32:26.380 their most rapid strengthening have indeed changed 00:32:26.380 --> 00:32:29.440 over the past few decades. Interestingly, there's 00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:31.680 a noted decrease in the likelihood of tropical 00:32:31.680 --> 00:32:34.019 cyclones undergoing their most rapid strengthening 00:32:34.019 --> 00:32:36.960 in the Gulf of Mexico. Oh, a decrease in the 00:32:36.960 --> 00:32:39.559 Gulf. That's surprising. It is a bit counterintuitive, 00:32:39.579 --> 00:32:43.240 perhaps. While storms certainly still form and 00:32:43.240 --> 00:32:46.539 impact the Gulf, and can be devastating, the 00:32:46.539 --> 00:32:50.079 fastest most extreme strengthening events are 00:32:50.079 --> 00:32:52.859 becoming statistically less likely to occur there 00:32:52.859 --> 00:32:55.859 compared to historical periods. It doesn't mean 00:32:55.859 --> 00:32:58.299 the Gulf is safe from our eye, just that the 00:32:58.299 --> 00:33:00.380 highest probability seems to be shifting elsewhere. 00:33:00.660 --> 00:33:03.079 So where is it shifting to? Conversely, and this 00:33:03.079 --> 00:33:05.180 is the concerning part, we are seeing significant 00:33:05.180 --> 00:33:07.740 increases in the likelihood of rapid intensification 00:33:07.740 --> 00:33:10.859 along and east of the U .S. Atlantic coast. Okay, 00:33:10.940 --> 00:33:13.230 right near the east coast. Yes. Also, in the 00:33:13.230 --> 00:33:15.170 tropical eastern Atlantic, that main development 00:33:15.170 --> 00:33:16.930 region for those long track hurricanes. Or they 00:33:16.930 --> 00:33:19.390 often start. Exactly. And also in the southern 00:33:19.390 --> 00:33:21.230 Caribbean Sea. Southern Caribbean, too. Okay. 00:33:21.509 --> 00:33:24.970 This geographical shift has profound direct implications. 00:33:25.450 --> 00:33:27.990 For the U .S. East Coast, for instance, it means 00:33:27.990 --> 00:33:30.509 an increased threat from storms that can suddenly 00:33:30.509 --> 00:33:33.549 explode in power closer to shore, leaving even 00:33:33.549 --> 00:33:36.069 less time for preparation. Right. And this region 00:33:36.069 --> 00:33:38.210 is already grappling with other evolving storm 00:33:38.210 --> 00:33:40.390 hazards, like slower moving storms, dropping 00:33:40.390 --> 00:33:43.029 more rain, and changing storm tracks, bringing 00:33:43.029 --> 00:33:45.549 unexpected impacts. So it's compounding the risks 00:33:45.549 --> 00:33:48.430 there. It seems to be. And consider the devastating 00:33:48.430 --> 00:33:51.910 potential for relatively resource -poor Central 00:33:51.910 --> 00:33:55.049 American nations. Yeah. When storms rapidly intensify, 00:33:54.960 --> 00:33:57.759 in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, often very 00:33:57.759 --> 00:34:00.640 close to land, it can create catastrophic impacts 00:34:00.640 --> 00:34:03.920 with minimal warning. We saw this horribly exemplified 00:34:03.920 --> 00:34:06.819 in 2020 with hurricanes Ida and Iota. Ida and 00:34:06.819 --> 00:34:09.699 Iota, right, late season storms too. Very late 00:34:09.699 --> 00:34:12.280 season, in November, both quickly intensified 00:34:12.280 --> 00:34:14.380 into major hurricanes just as they approached 00:34:14.380 --> 00:34:16.980 the coast of Nicaragua. causing immense destruction, 00:34:17.519 --> 00:34:20.280 landslides, widespread loss of life in an area 00:34:20.280 --> 00:34:22.760 with limited infrastructure to withstand that 00:34:22.760 --> 00:34:25.659 kind of sudden onslaught. So these spatial shifts 00:34:25.659 --> 00:34:28.300 mean different communities are facing new and 00:34:28.300 --> 00:34:31.119 heightened threats, really requiring a reevaluation 00:34:31.119 --> 00:34:33.880 of long -standing risk assessments. Here's where 00:34:33.880 --> 00:34:36.320 it gets really interesting and maybe a bit daunting. 00:34:36.599 --> 00:34:39.380 You've laid out the evidence so clearly. Storms 00:34:39.380 --> 00:34:41.880 are intensifying faster, more frequently, and 00:34:41.880 --> 00:34:45.739 in new places, all fueled by warmer oceans. So 00:34:45.739 --> 00:34:48.119 what are the broader implications of this? How 00:34:48.119 --> 00:34:51.239 do we prepare? How do we adapt to these changing 00:34:51.239 --> 00:34:53.179 storm patterns? It sounds like we're not just 00:34:53.179 --> 00:34:56.139 dealing with stronger storms, but also more unpredictable 00:34:56.139 --> 00:34:58.579 ones, potentially closer to home, shrinking those 00:34:58.579 --> 00:35:00.739 warning windows. You've hit on the core, yeah, 00:35:00.840 --> 00:35:03.320 the existential challenge we face. These findings 00:35:03.320 --> 00:35:06.300 underscore the urgent, profound need for a much 00:35:06.300 --> 00:35:09.360 better, more nuanced understanding of these changing 00:35:09.360 --> 00:35:11.780 intensification rates. We need to catch up. We 00:35:11.780 --> 00:35:14.809 do. It fundamentally redefines the difficulty 00:35:14.809 --> 00:35:18.030 in accurately forecasting and effectively communicating 00:35:18.030 --> 00:35:22.050 the increasing hazard to the public. Those traditional 00:35:22.050 --> 00:35:25.050 lead times for evacuation or preparation, the 00:35:25.050 --> 00:35:26.869 ones communities have relied on for decades, 00:35:27.409 --> 00:35:29.889 they're simply shrinking, often to impractical 00:35:29.889 --> 00:35:32.849 time scales. This really necessitates a radical 00:35:32.849 --> 00:35:34.849 rethink of our entire approach. So what does 00:35:34.849 --> 00:35:37.809 that rethink look like? It leads us to a dual 00:35:37.809 --> 00:35:40.159 necessity, really. A two -pronged approach we 00:35:40.159 --> 00:35:42.860 have to embrace simultaneously. On one hand, 00:35:43.179 --> 00:35:46.920 there is the undeniable, clear, urgent need to 00:35:46.920 --> 00:35:49.380 curb carbon emissions globally. Addressing the 00:35:49.380 --> 00:35:51.900 root cause. Exactly. Limiting future warming 00:35:51.900 --> 00:35:54.119 is essential to mitigate additional, potentially 00:35:54.119 --> 00:35:56.719 even more drastic changes in intensification 00:35:56.719 --> 00:35:59.860 rates down the line. If we continue on our current 00:35:59.860 --> 00:36:02.059 emissions trajectory, we can expect these alarming 00:36:02.059 --> 00:36:05.079 trends to persist, potentially worsen. This is 00:36:05.079 --> 00:36:06.940 about preventing the problem from escalating 00:36:06.940 --> 00:36:09.219 beyond our capacity to adapt. Makes sense. What's 00:36:09.219 --> 00:36:11.920 the other prong? On the other hand, we have the 00:36:11.920 --> 00:36:15.000 equally vital and immediate need for robust emergency 00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:18.340 preparedness plans and resilience measures. These 00:36:18.340 --> 00:36:20.659 have to allow our coastlines to adapt to the 00:36:20.659 --> 00:36:22.980 storms that are already exhibiting these increased 00:36:22.980 --> 00:36:25.360 strengthening rates and will continue to do so 00:36:25.360 --> 00:36:27.940 in the coming decades, even with mitigation efforts 00:36:27.940 --> 00:36:30.920 underway. So adaptation for the change is already 00:36:30.920 --> 00:36:34.110 happening. Precisely. This means investing significantly 00:36:34.110 --> 00:36:36.690 in resilient infrastructure, elevating homes, 00:36:37.269 --> 00:36:39.130 hardening critical facilities like hospitals 00:36:39.130 --> 00:36:42.150 and power grids. It means continually improving 00:36:42.150 --> 00:36:44.730 our early warning systems, making them faster, 00:36:44.969 --> 00:36:47.829 more precise. It means refining and practicing 00:36:47.829 --> 00:36:50.690 evacuation protocols to account for these compressed 00:36:50.690 --> 00:36:53.349 timelines. And public awareness too. Absolutely 00:36:53.349 --> 00:36:56.409 critical. comprehensive public education campaigns 00:36:56.409 --> 00:36:59.070 so that every individual understands the increased 00:36:59.070 --> 00:37:01.650 risk and knows exactly what to do when a storm 00:37:01.650 --> 00:37:03.889 intensifies unexpectedly quickly. It's about 00:37:03.889 --> 00:37:06.349 building a more resilient future against a hazard 00:37:06.349 --> 00:37:09.230 that is actively, measurably evolving right now. 00:37:09.789 --> 00:37:11.969 We cannot afford to address one without the other. 00:37:12.530 --> 00:37:14.670 Mitigation and adaptation have to go hand in 00:37:14.670 --> 00:37:17.409 hand. That's a truly powerful and actionable 00:37:17.409 --> 00:37:20.570 message. So just to recap our deep dive today, 00:37:21.110 --> 00:37:23.909 Hurricane Aaron, now a category three, has fortunately 00:37:23.909 --> 00:37:26.570 stayed offshore for populated areas. But its 00:37:26.570 --> 00:37:29.710 energy, its power, will still be felt along US 00:37:29.710 --> 00:37:32.889 East Coast beaches, dangerous currents, powerful 00:37:32.889 --> 00:37:35.050 waves. Definitely be careful out there. Please 00:37:35.050 --> 00:37:38.110 do. Critically, Aaron's initial dramatic strengthening 00:37:38.110 --> 00:37:40.489 was a prime example of rapid intensification. 00:37:41.010 --> 00:37:43.389 We learned this phenomenon is now more than twice 00:37:43.389 --> 00:37:45.780 as likely to occur than it was just a few decades 00:37:45.780 --> 00:37:48.320 ago, making storms more dangerous, less predictable. 00:37:48.860 --> 00:37:51.760 A significant data -driven trend. And this increase 00:37:51.760 --> 00:37:54.239 is largely driven by warming oceans, providing 00:37:54.239 --> 00:37:56.699 more fuel for these powerful systems. And it's 00:37:56.699 --> 00:37:58.980 not just the intensity. The very locations where 00:37:58.980 --> 00:38:01.719 this rapid intensification is occurring are shifting, 00:38:02.099 --> 00:38:04.079 presenting new and heightened threats, particularly 00:38:04.079 --> 00:38:06.019 to the U .S. East Coast and parts of the Caribbean. 00:38:06.420 --> 00:38:09.420 Indeed. The data clearly indicates a measurable 00:38:09.420 --> 00:38:12.820 impact of human -caused warming on how fast these 00:38:12.820 --> 00:38:15.530 storms strengthen. It really underscores the 00:38:15.530 --> 00:38:19.460 urgency of both. global mitigation efforts, and 00:38:19.460 --> 00:38:21.579 those localized adaptation strategies we just 00:38:21.579 --> 00:38:24.179 talked about. These aren't just scientific curiosities. 00:38:24.519 --> 00:38:27.199 They are real -world changes demanding real -world 00:38:27.199 --> 00:38:29.739 solutions. And as we wrap up today's Meteorology 00:38:29.739 --> 00:38:32.260 Matters podcast, I want to leave you, our listeners, 00:38:32.320 --> 00:38:34.920 with maybe a thought -provoking idea to consider. 00:38:35.480 --> 00:38:38.559 Given these changing patterns of storm intensification, 00:38:38.920 --> 00:38:42.500 their shifting movement, how might our very understanding 00:38:42.500 --> 00:38:45.380 of hurricane season itself need to evolve as 00:38:45.380 --> 00:38:48.500 it just dates on a calendar? What does this mean 00:38:48.500 --> 00:38:51.420 for how we live, build, and plan along our coastlines, 00:38:51.820 --> 00:38:53.599 not just for the next storm, but for the next 00:38:53.599 --> 00:38:56.380 generation? It's a critical question for our 00:38:56.380 --> 00:38:58.679 future resilience and one we all need to continue 00:38:58.679 --> 00:39:01.179 exploring. A very important question indeed. 00:39:01.380 --> 00:39:03.420 You've been listening to the Meteorology Matters 00:39:03.420 --> 00:39:05.780 podcast. For more insights and updates on weather 00:39:05.780 --> 00:39:08.260 phenomena, you can follow meteorologist Rob Jones 00:39:08.260 --> 00:39:10.960 on Instagram. He's at meteorologist. That's meteorologist. 00:39:11.039 --> 00:39:14.400 On TikTok, he's at TV meteorologist. TV meteorologist. 00:39:14.590 --> 00:39:17.150 And on YouTube, just search for Rob Jones Hurricane, 00:39:17.429 --> 00:39:19.590 that's Rob Jones Hurricane, where you'll also 00:39:19.590 --> 00:39:21.710 find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist 00:39:21.710 --> 00:39:24.250 with our past discussions. Thank you so much 00:39:24.250 --> 00:39:26.369 for joining us for this deep dive into how the 00:39:26.369 --> 00:39:28.409 world and its weather is changing around us.