Welcome, welcome, welcome to Meteorology Matters.
I'm genuinely excited you're with us today. Great
to be here. We're going to take a really important
and I think insightful look into the heart of
the Atlantic hurricane season. Yeah, things are
definitely starting to percolate out there. They
really are. If you've spent any time online or
even just caught a news headline, you've probably
noticed this growing buzz about the tropics.
Oh, yeah. It's hard to miss. And it can feel
like a lot to process, can't it? So many maps
flying around, so much chatter, and sometimes,
well, frankly, conflicting ideas about what's
actually unfolding. Absolutely. That's where
the confusion can set in. So today our mission
really is to cut through all that noise and give
you a clear comprehensive understanding. OK,
let's unpack this. Indeed. Our goal for this
particular deep dive, it isn't just about reporting
the latest facts. We want to truly empower you,
the listener. Right. We're going to distill the
most reliable forecasts, you know, straight from
the National Hurricane Center. We want to bypass
that often misleading chatter you see on social
media and provide you with a really crystal clear
understanding of the bigger picture. What's fascinating
here is we're going to connect these latest developments
to the broader patterns. The why behind it all.
Exactly. The patterns shaping our hurricane season,
helping you understand why the tropics seem to
be waking up now and what you can genuinely expect
in the coming weeks. Precisely. And to guide
us through this. Well, it's an intricate dance
of atmospheric forces, isn't it? It really is.
We're going to hone in on a few key areas today.
We'll focus heavily on that significant African
disturbance, the one getting a lot of attention.
Yeah, that's the main player right now. We'll
delve into the science behind hurricane development
this time of year, explore the conducive conditions
that are currently aligning. All those ingredients
coming together. And maybe most importantly,
we'll try to equip you with the knowledge to
interpret those long -range model forecasts.
So you can constantly separate the real signal
from the noise, you know? Yeah, managing expectations
is key. It's all about becoming truly well -informed,
not just sort of inundated with data overload.
Couldn't agree more. So let's jump right into
the big story unfolding in the Atlantic, that
truly massive African disturbance. This is the
one that has everyone's attention and... Well,
for good reason. The National Hurricane Center
is actively highlighting a very large potential
development area for this system. It's just begun
its journey off the African continent. That's
right. And when we look at its current state,
it's quite notable. Initially, it's described
as very large, somewhat ill -defined. Meaning
not tightly wound yet. Exactly. It lacks a tightly
organized center at this stage. But, and this
is important, it is already showing some early
signs of a circulation. That's a crucial first
step. And perhaps most importantly, it's carrying
a substantial amount of deep moisture with it.
That's one of the foundational ingredients for
a hurricane formation. Got it. Fuel. Right. Now,
to put this in perspective, Unlike some previous
systems we tracked this season, remember Invest
96L? Yeah, the one that went north. Exactly.
That tended to track northward because of a stubborn,
blocking, high -pressure system. Think of it
like a big, invisible wall in the atmosphere.
Forcing things around it. Precisely. But for
this new disturbance, there's actually a strong
consensus among the various global computer forecasts.
They show it continuing on a general east -to
-west path. Towards the Caribbean. Towards the
Caribbean, yes, for the better part of next week.
This is largely because that upper -level blocking
high, while it's expected to weaken a bit, will
still be strong enough to keep it moving generally
westward for several days. Before any potential
turn. Before any significant northward turn might
happen later on. Okay. And... As with any potential
storm, there are always these critical questions
forecasters are wrestling with, right? What are
the big unknowns for this system now? What are
meteorologists looking for? Well, the first major
question really is when. When will this disturbance
sufficiently fight off the dust and dry air it's
encountering? This Saharan air layer. Exactly.
The Saharan air layer, that plume of dry, dusty
air, often moves off Africa right alongside these
tropical waves. It acts as a real inhibitor.
Like throwing sand in the gears. Kind of, yeah.
This system needs to overcome that environmental
resistance to really develop an organized circulation
with sustained thunderstorms. It needs to clear
out that dusty air to get going. Makes sense.
And the second question. The second big question
revolves around how the steering currents are
going to evolve, especially as we head into next
weekend and the following week. OK, explain steering
currents again briefly. Think of them as invisible
rivers of air high up in the atmosphere. They
carry and guide weather systems, much like ocean
currents guide a ship. Right. This is where the
long -term track really comes into play. Those
currents dictate the path. So how does something
like the jet stream play into all of this? I
know that can make a huge difference in where
a storm ultimately goes, sometimes far from where
it started. That's a great question, and it's
absolutely pivotal here. The consensus among
various computer forecasts suggests a slight
dip in the jet stream is predicted. A dip, like
a trough. Yeah, a trough, exactly. It's predicted
to weaken that blocking high pressure system
over the weekend. This weakening would then potentially
allow the developing disturbance to lift slightly
northward. But the exact nature, the timing,
the depth of this dip that's critical, it will
directly control how close the system ultimately
comes to the northeastern Caribbean islands.
And potentially beyond. And later potentially
the Bahamas or the southeast United States. Many
computer forecasts right now show the system
as at least a tropical storm by that time nearing
the Caribbean. Some even show hurricane strength.
Wow, okay. This is why we watch the jet stream
so closely. It's like the master conductor for
these systems. And the rate at which a system
intensifies also affects its path, isn't it?
I remember hearing that. It seems a bit counterintuitive,
maybe. It does, but it's a crucial point, often
misunderstood. How quickly the storm intensifies
is extremely important. Why is that? Because
a stronger tropical system is much more likely
to be pulled northward by that dip in the jet
stream we just talked about. So stronger means
more likely to turn north sooner. Generally,
yes. Think of the atmosphere in layers, like
a cake. Lower level winds might push a weaker,
shallow storm westward. But a strong hurricane
builds these towering thunderstorms. Right, way
up high. Exactly. They punch up into the faster,
higher -altitude rivers of air, like the jet
stream. It's like a shallow boat versus a deep
-keeled ship. Only the ship gets truly speared
by the deep, powerful currents. Gotcha. So the
storm structure interacts differently with the
steering layers. Precisely. A rapidly intensifying
storm has its upper -level circulation influenced
by those stronger, higher steering currents pulling
it more northward. Conversely, a system that
develops more slowly… Stays further west longer.
Tends to travel farther west, yeah. It stays
under the influence of the lower -level trade
winds for a longer period before eventually making
any northward turn. This difference in development
pace can mean hundreds of miles difference in
a long -range forecast track. And I imagine these
subtle differences in development, how fast it
spins up, the exact nature of those atmospheric
layers, that's what causes all the varied long
-range forecasts we see swirling around online,
right? The ones that cause so much anxiety sometimes.
Precisely. The differences in the rate of intensification,
along with the exact depth and nature of that
jet stream dip. That's exactly what accounts
for the wide range of long -range forecasts you
might see. One possibility exactly because the
precise evolution of these intricate details
is at this point unknowable more than about say
five to seven days out It's simply impossible
to accurately forecast a storm's exact track
a week or more in advance with any real confidence
good reminder Yeah, a single model run showing
a category five hitting your town ten days from
now It's just one scenario out of many many possibilities.
It should be viewed with extreme skepticism So
given all this uncertainty, but also the potential,
what does this all mean for us right now? How
much hype should we pay attention to? How do
we distill what's truly important? OK, what we
do know with a good degree of confidence is this.
The overall weather pattern across the Atlantic.
from the Caribbean islands all the way to the
southeast US coast, is currently forecast to
be quite conducive for this system to organize
and strengthen. It's a very favorable environment
setting up. So the ingredients are there? The
ingredients look like they'll be there, yes.
In fact, enough long -range forecasts are showing
the potential for hurricane development that
we can say there's a good chance we'll see Hurricane
Aaron emerge from this system within the next
week or so. Okay, Hurricane Aaron potentially.
But... And this is the big but. This is absolutely
vital to clarify. Many of the potential tracks
currently show the system turning northward and
staying offshore of the East Coast as it approaches.
So no need to panic about a specific landfall
point yet. Absolutely no reason at this stage
to focus on any one specific location for potential
impacts or to begin, you know, drastic preparation
as we move through next week. If the system becomes
better defined, which the consensus of forecasts
currently suggests, it will need this. then our
confidence in what the computer projections are
telling us will naturally increase significantly.
We'll be able to narrow down those possibilities.
That's a great reminder to keep perspective and
focus on the current reliable information from
the National Hurricane Center. Okay, beyond this
main event, what else is stirring in the Atlantic
right now? Any other systems we should be aware
of, or are they largely fizzling out? Yes, there
are a few other areas we've been tracking. The
National Hurricane Center is still tracking INVEST
-96L, the one we mentioned earlier that tracked
north. How's that one looking? For this one,
they've actually lowered the odds for it to develop
into a tropical depression. It's in the low range
now, meaning they're still investigating it,
but its chances are looking slim. And no threat
to land. No threat to land regardless. It's expected
to turn out to sea well before reaching Bermuda.
It's staying a fish storm, as we call them. OK.
And what about that small system that was briefly
offshore of the Carolinas? I think some coastal
folks were watching that one. That small system,
yeah, that one has now been completely absorbed
by a cold front. It's effectively washed away,
so it's no longer a factor for anyone. Gone.
Pretty much. Its development odds had been lowered
to 20 % anyway, and it's expected to become non
-tropical and just move away. Might even bring
some drier air to the Carolinas in its wake.
Which might be welcome after recent rains in
some spots. Could be, yeah. We also had tropical
storm Dexter making some noise for a bit, didn't
we? What happened with that system? Is it still
a concern anywhere? Ah, Dexter. It did gain some
steam for a bit, got itself a name, but it's
now effectively hauling away from the United
States. It's no longer a tropical system. It's
become non -tropical. Another fish storm. Another
fish storm, exactly. It's staying firmly in no
man's land, way north of Bermuda, moving into
cooler waters where it's steadily weakening.
So no concerns there for land. Essentially just
a remnant now. OK, good. So now that we've covered
the current systems, let's step back again and
look at that bigger picture. Why is the Atlantic
waking up now? It really feels like someone flipped
a switch after a relatively quiet June and July.
What's driving this change? Yeah, it does feel
like that sometimes. And if we connect this to
the bigger picture. These forecasts, the ones
we're seeing now, they're really telling us something
important about the next few weeks. Right. The
latest updates to the Atlantic hurricane season
outlook from places like Colorado State University
and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
know that they confirm this shift. What are they
saying now? Still predicting an active season
overall? They are. Colorado State is still predicting
a robust season. 16 named storms, eight hurricanes,
and three category three or stronger hurricanes.
OK. And NOAA's forecast falls within a similar
range. 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes,
and three to five major hurricanes. So still
above average numbers expected. Definitely. And
what these numbers overwhelmingly indicate is
a season that is back -loaded. Back -loaded,
meaning? Meaning we should expect significantly
more hurricane activity later in the season,
August, September, October, compared to the early
part. And that's exactly what we're starting
to see kick into gear right now. So this isn't
random. It's a pattern. It's not just a random
occurrence. It's a climatological pattern kicking
into gear. So it's not just a coincidence we're
suddenly seeing all this activity. This is actually
a predictable shift, right? We're truly entering
what's known as the Cape Verde season. Can you
explain why that's so significant? What does
that mean? Precisely. The main development region,
the MDR as we call it, is indeed coming to life,
which is entirely typical for this specific time
of year. The MDR being that stretch from Africa
towards the Caribbean. Exactly, that main nursery
area. For centuries, mariners, meteorologists,
they've observed that August, September, and
October are the peak months for storms forming
off the west coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde
Islands, and then tracking westward across the
Atlantic. And there are reasons for that timing.
Oh, yes. There's a confluence of atmospheric
and oceanic factors that are now falling into
place to make this happen. First, the Atlantic
waters. They are slightly warmer than normal
right now. Still quite warm. Still quite warm.
While maybe not as extreme as what we saw last
year, sea surface temperatures are definitely
warm upper 80s, even low 90s Fahrenheit in some
spots, especially as you get closer to the windward
and leeward islands and in the Gulf of Mexico.
And warm water is fuel. It provides ample energy
for storms to develop and intensify. Think of
it as high octane fuel for these potential systems.
OK. And I've heard the term La Nina light. being
used recently. How does that play into the current
conditions? What does that mean for hurricane
development? That's a good observation. And it's
another key factor. We're seeing what could be
described as La Niña -like conditions developing
in the Pacific. And that affects the Atlantic.
It does. Generally, La Niña means the atmosphere
over the Atlantic becomes more conducive to storm
development, particularly later in the season.
How so? In a nutshell, La Nina typically leads
to reduced vertical wind shear over the main
hurricane development regions of the Atlantic.
Wind shear. That's bad for storms, right? Vertical
wind shear is very bad for developing storms.
It's the change in wind speed or direction with
height in the atmosphere. Imagine a developing
storm like a tall spinning top. Okay. Strong
wind shear is like a giant hand trying to push
that top over, tearing it apart before it can
really get going and strengthen. Ah, disrupts
the structure. Exactly. But low wind shear, on
the other hand, allows that top to spin freely,
grow taller, get organized. So with these La
Niña light conditions potentially influencing
things, we expect really low wind shear right
over where these storms may potentially form.
Fewer disruptive forces. Fewer disruptive forces
high up that can tear apart developing. systems.
And remember, the upper level winds over the
Caribbean were very hostile back in June and
July. That was like a double minus against storm
development. Why aren't things were quiet then?
But those conditions are now balancing out. They're
becoming much more favorable, allowing for this
increase in activity. So all the ingredients
are coming together. Warm water, minimal shear,
and those tropical waves rolling off Africa.
So it sounds like we might be seeing a steady
stream, or as some people call it, a parade of
systems. coming off Africa from this point forward.
Is that likely? The current pattern certainly
looks like it will lead to something like a parade
of systems coming in the general direction of
the Caribbean. This is quite common as the Cape
Verde season really kicks into high gear. And
historically this timing lines up. It lines up
perfectly. To put it in historical context, the
average date for the first Atlantic hurricane
formation is August 11th. We're right around
there. We are, and the climatological peak of
the entire hurricane season is September 10th.
So we're still building towards the peak. This
really reinforces that idea of a back -loaded
season. Any past seasons this reminds you of.
Well, we can draw some parallels. The 2010 hurricane
season also had a quiet start. June and July
were slow. But then it saw a significant pickup
in late August. That year was actually heavy
on fish storms that thankfully stayed out at
sea. So active doesn't always mean landfalls.
Doesn't always mean landfalls, exactly. It offers
a hopeful parallel that increased activity depends
heavily on those steering currents we talked
about. But then you look further back, 2004 was
a very busy landfalling year. Ivan Jean Francis.
Yeah, remember that. That reminds us of the potential
impact. The point is, the shift in activity is
well within historical norms for this time of
year, but the conditions now are very conducive
for that activity to really ramp up. So what
does all this mean for us as we try to navigate
this increasingly active period? Because it feels
like as soon as the tropics wake up, so does
the, let's call it, information storm on social
media. Right. This raises that important question.
Yeah. How do we make sense of all this information
without getting swept up in the hype, the anxiety?
One of the biggest issues we encounter every
year is what some people playfully call the GFS
Kane phenomenon. GFS Kane. meaning those crazy
looking maps. Exactly. You'll see these viral
social media posts showing extreme storms, sometimes
category five monsters, supposedly impacting
specific parts of the coast 10, 12, 14 days out.
I see those all the time. It's crucial, crucial
to understand that these single scenario maps
are very often designed purely for clicks. They
get shared like wildfire. But they aren't reliable
forecasts. They are not skillful or credible
forecasts at that range. They are simply too
far in the future to be reliable. Models like
the GFS, the Global Forecast System, they tend
to spin up a storm far out in their calculations.
Just trying possibilities. Kind of. And such
specific forecasts will literally bounce around
daily, changing drastically as new data comes
in. There's no real news or actionable information
in those single scary looking maps. They just
create unnecessary anxiety. So if single model
runs aren't reliable that far out, what should
we be looking at? What's the difference? Because
I know there's a lot of talk about ensemble forecasts.
How do they help us gain more confidence? That's
where the power of ensembles comes in, and it's
a vital concept for anyone following hurricane
season seriously. Okay, explain ensembles. Ensemble
forecasts, like those from the European model
ensemble system or even the newer Google AI model
and the Euro AI model. They run their core atmospheric
model many, many times. Not just once. Not just
once. Sometimes up to 50 or 100 times, each with
subtle, slightly varied starting conditions,
tiny changes in temperature, pressure, things
like that. To account for uncertainty in the
starting point. Precisely. This process generates
a wide range of possible outcomes. It creates
what often looks like a spaghetti plot on a map,
where each strand represents a different potential
track from one of those model runs. I've seen
those spaghetti plots. Right. Now when you see
the different colors representing these different
runs clustering tightly together. All going to
roughly the same place. Exactly. That gives forecasters
much higher confidence in a particular outcome.
It means that even with slight uncertainties
in the initial data, the model keeps pointing
to a similar solution. And if they're spread
out all over the place? Conversely, when those
lines are widespread and scattered, like spaghetti
thrown against a wall, it indicates very high
uncertainty, even for new technologies like Google's
AI model. So spread means... Low confidence.
Low confidence. It tells us the atmosphere is
less predictable at that time. By the way, that
Google AI model is available for anyone to look
at. And while it's still improving, it has this
unique ability to self -correct and update much
faster than the traditional models. But the principle
is the same. Convergence means confidence. Divergence
means uncertainty. That's what meteorologists
use to gauge the forecast confidence. That makes
a lot more sense looking at the consensus, not
just one wild outlier. Okay, and then there's
the cone of uncertainty, which I think still
often gets misunderstood. What's the biggest
misconception you find people have about the
cone? Oh, the cone. Yeah, probably one of the
most misunderstood visuals in hurricane forecasting.
The biggest misconception, hands down, is that
the cone represents the area of impacts. Like
if you're outside the cone, you're safe. That's
exactly the misconception and it's absolutely
not true. It's crucial to understand the cone
is specifically designed to show the probable
track of the center of the storm based on historical
forecast errors. Just the probable path of the
center point over time. It does not by any means
represent the entirety of the storm's impacts.
Because impacts are much wider. Much wider. Impacts
like heavy rain, strong winds, danger. a storm
surge, they can and often do extend far beyond
the boundaries of that cone, sometimes hundreds
of miles away from the center. That's a really
important distinction. It is. On the positive
side, the cone has actually narrowed significantly
over the years. Oh really? Why is that? It reflects
the much improved accuracy and track forecasting.
Meteorologists have gotten much better at predicting
where a storm will go. That's a huge success
story. But intensity is still tricky. Exactly.
A significant challenge that remains is intensity
forecasting, especially predicting rapid intensification
when a storm suddenly strengthens much faster
than expected. Right. That can happen quickly.
It can. Yeah. And because of this uncertainty
and intensity, our advice generally is always
to prepare for a storm potentially one category
stronger than what is officially forecast, especially
given the potential for rapid intensification
over very warm waters like those warm ocean eddies.
that can act like rocket fuel. Good advice. So
don't focus on the edge of the cone. Don't focus
on the edge of the cone. Focus on whether your
location is in the general vicinity of its potential
path and prepare for potential impacts accordingly,
considering the intensity uncertainty. Okay,
now having discussed how meteorologists use these
tools, the models, the comb, and understand their
limitations, let's maybe look at how they apply
that understanding to the very latest raw data
coming in. This informs their confidence levels,
right? It's almost like looking over a meteorologist's
shoulder at their notes. What are the current
specifics for that main African tropical wave,
18W, from the latest technical discussions? Certainly,
yeah. Zooming in on those latest tropical weather
discussions, which are quite detailed, that African
tropical wave, designated 18W, currently has
its axis, its center line, essentially positioned
roughly along 18 degrees west longitude. It extends
southward from about 16 degrees north latitude.
And what's associated with it? Clouds. Thunderstorms.
Associated with this wave, we're observing, and
this is their terminology, numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection. Which means thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms, yeah. Rising air creating clouds
and storms. This activity is located generally
from 1 degree north to 15 degrees north latitude
and east of 20 degrees west longitude. And the
forecast for it. Development chances. The National
Hurricane Center indicates a low chance of slow
development for this wave over the next seven
days. That's the official word right now. Low
chance, but still possible. Still possible, yes.
As it moves west, northwestward at about 15 knots
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The main hurdles right now are still that initial
dry air and dust it's encountering. Those are
the primary hindrances. OK. And there's also
that central Atlantic tropical wave you mentioned,
AL -96. What's the latest on that one? How's
it behaving? Yes, the Central Atlantic Tropical
Wave, identified as 46W, or also INVEST AL96.
Its axis is along 46 degrees west longitude,
stretching from 9 north to 23 north, also moving
westward around 15 knots. And there's a low pressure
with it. There's a 1013 millibar low pressure
center, that's AL96 specifically, noted along
the northern part of this wave's axis, near 20
north latitude. Scattered moderate convection
more thunderstorms is present near this low between
44 and 47 west longitude development odds for
this one Well, development of this specific low
pressure is not expected over the next 48 hours.
Again, mainly due to dry air surrounding it,
that common initial obstacle. But longer term.
Some gradual development is possible during the
early or middle part of next week as the system
moves north westward to northward across the
central Atlantic. So this feature also carries
a low chance of tropical development over the
next seven days. But it's another one in that
parade that we're definitely monitoring. Good
to keep track of the individual players. How
about the broader atmospheric features, like
the monsoon trough and the intertropical convergence
zone, the ITCZ? They're always key players, right,
like the nurseries. Indeed they are. Understanding
them provides crucial context for where these
waves come from. The monsoon trough axis currently
enters the Atlantic near 19 north, 16 .5 west,
and then stretches southwestward to 5 .5 north,
38 west. And that's a low pressure area. It is.
This trough is essentially a zone of enhanced
moisture and instability in the atmosphere, often
the breeding ground for the very waves that can
become tropical systems later on. And the ITCZ.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ,
is currently located from 14 North, 48 West to
11 North. 58 West. This is that persistent belt
of low pressure near the equator where the trade
winds from the northern and southern hemispheres
converge. Creates rising air. Creates lots of
rising air leading to widespread convection.
We've observed scattered moderate convection
forming this morning from five north to nine
north between 20 West and 30 West, all associated
with these broader features. They serve as continuous
sources of tropical activity. These are really
the large scale drivers of the Cape Verde season.
OK, let's bring. We're getting a bit closer to
home now. What are the prevailing conditions
in the Gulf of Mexico right now? Is it quiet
over there, or are there any brewing concerns?
In the Gulf of Mexico, things are relatively
quiet overall. There's a surface trough extending
across northern Florida to near 27 north, 86
west. Any weather with that? Scattered moderate
convection, some thunderstorms, continue north
of this trough, mainly offshore of the Florida
Panhandle, and also over the far eastern gulf,
east of 85 West. There's also some scattered
moderate convection ongoing over the eastern
bay of Campache, linked to a surface trough along
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. But
mostly calm. Otherwise, yeah, the basin is largely
dominated by a 10 -15 millibar high pressure
system centered in the western gulf that's leading
to light, to gentle winds and... relatively slight
seas, generally calm conditions. And the forecast
for the Gulf? Weak high pressure is expected
to continue dominating the weather pattern across
the Gulf waters into the middle of next week.
That supports mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas. We might see some
fresh northeast winds pulse nightly, starting
maybe Monday night, west of the Yucatan Peninsula.
That's as a diurnal trough, a daily low pressure
feature moves westward offshore into the Bay
of Kempest each evening. But overall, the Gulf
remains fairly quiet for now. Always worth keeping
an eye on, though. Always. Okay, and what about
the Caribbean Sea? Active? Or relatively quiet
compared to the deeper Atlantic where those waves
are forming? The Caribbean Sea has seen some
changes recently. Convection that was previously
active in the Northwest basin dissipated early
this morning, so fair weather is now prevailing
throughout most of the basin, with the trade
winds dominating. What kind of winds? We're seeing
moderate to fresh easterlies in the Central Basin,
gentle to moderate east winds in the eastern
and southwest parts. In the Northwest Caribbean,
light to gentle southeast winds are present.
And the seas? Seas are generally three to five
feet, a bit higher, maybe five to seven feet
in the south central basin, and calmer one to
three feet up in the northwest. What's the forecast
look like for the Caribbean? Looking ahead, high
pressure located north of the basin, combined
with the Colombian low to the south, that setup
will support fresh to locally strong winds and
moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore
of Venezuela and Colombia. That's primarily today.
Gets windy there sometimes. It does. After a
brief lull, a passing tropical wave is expected
to cause similar wind speeds to return again
starting Tuesday. And in the Gulf of Honduras,
we might see pulsing winds of fresh speeds with
moderate seas tonight through Wednesday night.
But elsewhere. Elsewhere across the Caribbean,
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas are forecast through early next week. So
a few localized areas of elevated winds and seas,
but largely stable for now compared to the main.
development region. OK, moving farther out into
the Atlantic Ocean, away from the immediate coastal
areas in the Caribbean, what's happening in those
open waters that might influence systems down
the line? Or just tell us about the general state.
Right. Out in the broader Atlantic, there's a
deep layer trough. Remember, that's a persistent
area of low pressure and instability through
much of the atmosphere. It's situated across
the far northwest waters right now. Causing any
weather. It is currently leading to scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection west of
77 west longitude that's impacting waters offshore
of Florida and the northwest Bahamas. There's
also a surface trough extending from 30 north
56 west down to 25 north 61 west but that one
is producing little in the way of significant
weather right now. The remaining convection out
in the basin is mostly associated with those
tropical waves and the monsoon trough we already
discussed. What about winds and seas out there?
Generally west of 50 degrees west longitude,
we're seeing gentle east winds and moderate seas.
To the east of 50 west, for waters south of 15
north, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to
6 feet are dominant. North of 15 north, however,
it's windier. Fresh to locally strong northeast
winds and seas of 6 to 10 feet are dominant.
Where are the highest seas? The highest seas
are specifically noted in a corridor stretching
from 18 north to 26 north latitude, between 18
west and 34 west longitudes, so quite choppy
out there in that zone. And the forecast for
the open Atlantic? Anything developing? For the
forecast west of 55 west, that low pressure system,
AL96, the one associated with the tropical waves
southeast of the region, is forecast to move
northwest. It may impact the far northeast waters
during the early to middle parts of next week.
Still low chance of development, though. Still
a low chance of tropical formation with this
low as it moves northwest or north during this
period. Otherwise, a relatively weak pressure
gradient, meaning only slight differences in
air pressure will support generally gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
most of the Western Atlantic region through Sunday.
Maybe some occasional fresh pulsing winds near
Hispaniola. It's truly a vast and dynamic ocean
out there. It really is. So after all that incredibly
detailed technical discussion, let's bring it
back again to what this all means for you, our
listener. What practical concerns should you
be thinking about, especially as we head into
this clearly more active part of the season?
What are some of the realities of a backloaded
season kicking in? Yeah, absolutely. One significant
concern that often arises, and it's increasingly
critical to understand even with weaker systems
or storms that don't make a direct landfall,
is inland flooding. Not just storm surge on the
coast. Exactly. This is really important. We
know that warmer air holds significantly more
moisture. It's basic physics. For every degree
Celsius hotter, the air can hold about seven
percent more water vapor. Wow. Seven percent
per degree. It adds up fast. So this means that
when storms do fire up in this warmer environment,
they can carry a tremendous amount more rain.
That leads to potentially very heavy amounts
of precipitation over a short period. Even far
from the storm center. If you are inland, in
areas that might not typically associate themselves
with direct hurricane wind impacts, if you live
in an area prone to inland flooding, maybe from
overflowing rivers, already saturated ground,
or overwhelmed drainage systems, this is definitely
something to acknowledge and prepare for proactively.
Good point. It's not just a coastal threat. Not
at all. Water is often the biggest danger. And
as we talk about preparing, you know, those of
us who live in hurricane prone areas like Florida,
we often have our own little hurricane preparedness.
strategies or hacks we've picked up over the
years. What are some practical tips for folks
to get ready now before something potentially
develops maybe beyond just the basic flashlight
and batteries kit? Absolutely. Now is absolutely
the time to prepare. Don't wait until a storm
is bearing down on you and the store shelves
are completely empty. The lines get crazy. They
do. Beyond the basic emergency kit, consider
some strategic hacks that can really help. One
I've heard for important documents, passports,
insurance papers, irreplaceable family photos.
A dishwasher can actually be a surprisingly safe
place to store them during potential flooding.
It's designed to be watertight, right? Never
thought of that. Clever. Another great tip, especially
if you anticipate power outages, which are common,
make and freeze a large batch of coffee. Or even
just water bottles or jugs of water. Why coffee?
Well, not only will you have iced coffee ready
to enjoy when the power is out. Right. But more
importantly, these large frozen blocks of coffee
or water act like giant ice packs. They can help
keep your freezer and refrigerator cold for much
longer, presuming perishable food for an extended
period. Smart. Extend the life of the freezer
contents? Exactly. And more broadly, think about
financial preparedness. Gather important insurance
policy numbers. Maybe have some cash on hand
since ATMs and credit card machines might be
down. Understand your deductibles. Communication
plans, too. Definitely discuss communication
plans with family members, especially if you
might get separated or cell service goes down.
Who do you contact out of state? How will that
check in? And just stay calm. And remember, preparedness
is also a mental game. Staying calm and informed,
relying on credible sources rather than reacting
emotionally to hype, that's your biggest asset.
Having a plan and a well -stocked kit truly gives
you peace of mind. This has been incredibly insightful.
Thank you. It's clear the Atlantic is indeed
entering a much more active phase, particularly
with this significant African disturbance rolling
out. And it's all aligning with what climatology
tells us should happen this time of year. But
the main takeaway here, I think, for all of us,
is that reliable science -backed information
is absolutely paramount. That's the key. It helps
avoid unnecessary worry, and it helps us prepare
effectively and intelligently. That's right.
Continue to stay informed through those reliable
channels, like the National Hurricane Center.
Don't fall prey to the social media hype machines
that are often designed just to grab attention,
rather than provide accurate, actionable information.
Be discerning. your sources, absolutely. And
understand the limitations of those really long
-range forecasts. Focus on the next few days
to a week out for reliable details. And as we
wrap up this deep dive for Meteorology Matters,
I want to leave you, our listener, with a final
provocative thought to consider as this season
progresses. Okay. As we see this overall pattern
in the Atlantic becoming more conducive for a
Cape Verde season, which again is entirely usual
for this time of year, and we witness these atmospheric
and oceanic conditions aligning just right to
make that happen, it truly makes you ponder how
might we need to redefine what a typical hurricane
season looks like in the years to come, especially
as these larger global climate patterns continue
to evolve and potentially shift baselines. That's
a deep question. What does normal even mean anymore?
Exactly. It's a question worth mulling over long
after this discussion concludes. Something to
think about as we watch things unfold. A fascinating
thought indeed. For more updates and to keep
following meteorologist Rob Jones, you can find
him on Instagram. His handle is Meteorologist.
Easy to remember. On TikTok, he's at TV Meteorologist.
And on YouTube, just search for Rob Jones Hurricane.
And on that YouTube channel, you'll also find
the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist with
our past deep dives. And we absolutely encourage
you to do that. Stay plugged into reliable sources.
The more informed you are, the better prepared
you can be. And honestly, the more clarity you'll
have during what can sometimes feel like an uncertain
time. Absolutely. Thank you so much for tuning
in to Meteorology Matters. We appreciate you
joining us for this deep dive. Stay safe out
there.