WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.580 Welcome, welcome, welcome to Meteorology Matters. 00:00:02.879 --> 00:00:05.240 I'm genuinely excited you're with us today. Great 00:00:05.240 --> 00:00:07.299 to be here. We're going to take a really important 00:00:07.299 --> 00:00:10.880 and I think insightful look into the heart of 00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:13.349 the Atlantic hurricane season. Yeah, things are 00:00:13.349 --> 00:00:14.869 definitely starting to percolate out there. They 00:00:14.869 --> 00:00:17.769 really are. If you've spent any time online or 00:00:17.769 --> 00:00:20.829 even just caught a news headline, you've probably 00:00:20.829 --> 00:00:22.850 noticed this growing buzz about the tropics. 00:00:23.010 --> 00:00:25.309 Oh, yeah. It's hard to miss. And it can feel 00:00:25.309 --> 00:00:27.890 like a lot to process, can't it? So many maps 00:00:27.890 --> 00:00:30.789 flying around, so much chatter, and sometimes, 00:00:30.789 --> 00:00:33.649 well, frankly, conflicting ideas about what's 00:00:33.649 --> 00:00:35.950 actually unfolding. Absolutely. That's where 00:00:35.950 --> 00:00:38.990 the confusion can set in. So today our mission 00:00:38.990 --> 00:00:41.689 really is to cut through all that noise and give 00:00:41.689 --> 00:00:44.390 you a clear comprehensive understanding. OK, 00:00:44.390 --> 00:00:47.549 let's unpack this. Indeed. Our goal for this 00:00:47.549 --> 00:00:50.030 particular deep dive, it isn't just about reporting 00:00:50.030 --> 00:00:52.570 the latest facts. We want to truly empower you, 00:00:52.590 --> 00:00:54.770 the listener. Right. We're going to distill the 00:00:54.770 --> 00:00:57.549 most reliable forecasts, you know, straight from 00:00:57.549 --> 00:01:00.250 the National Hurricane Center. We want to bypass 00:01:00.250 --> 00:01:02.750 that often misleading chatter you see on social 00:01:02.750 --> 00:01:06.049 media and provide you with a really crystal clear 00:01:06.049 --> 00:01:09.730 understanding of the bigger picture. What's fascinating 00:01:09.730 --> 00:01:12.969 here is we're going to connect these latest developments 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:16.180 to the broader patterns. The why behind it all. 00:01:16.680 --> 00:01:19.439 Exactly. The patterns shaping our hurricane season, 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:22.040 helping you understand why the tropics seem to 00:01:22.040 --> 00:01:25.280 be waking up now and what you can genuinely expect 00:01:25.280 --> 00:01:28.120 in the coming weeks. Precisely. And to guide 00:01:28.120 --> 00:01:30.989 us through this. Well, it's an intricate dance 00:01:30.989 --> 00:01:33.209 of atmospheric forces, isn't it? It really is. 00:01:33.510 --> 00:01:36.409 We're going to hone in on a few key areas today. 00:01:36.989 --> 00:01:40.129 We'll focus heavily on that significant African 00:01:40.129 --> 00:01:42.290 disturbance, the one getting a lot of attention. 00:01:42.430 --> 00:01:44.209 Yeah, that's the main player right now. We'll 00:01:44.209 --> 00:01:46.430 delve into the science behind hurricane development 00:01:46.430 --> 00:01:49.989 this time of year, explore the conducive conditions 00:01:49.989 --> 00:01:51.849 that are currently aligning. All those ingredients 00:01:51.849 --> 00:01:54.010 coming together. And maybe most importantly, 00:01:54.469 --> 00:01:57.150 we'll try to equip you with the knowledge to 00:01:57.150 --> 00:02:00.170 interpret those long -range model forecasts. 00:02:00.790 --> 00:02:03.129 So you can constantly separate the real signal 00:02:03.129 --> 00:02:05.969 from the noise, you know? Yeah, managing expectations 00:02:05.969 --> 00:02:09.629 is key. It's all about becoming truly well -informed, 00:02:10.030 --> 00:02:12.889 not just sort of inundated with data overload. 00:02:13.069 --> 00:02:15.150 Couldn't agree more. So let's jump right into 00:02:15.150 --> 00:02:17.729 the big story unfolding in the Atlantic, that 00:02:17.729 --> 00:02:21.129 truly massive African disturbance. This is the 00:02:21.129 --> 00:02:23.039 one that has everyone's attention and... Well, 00:02:23.259 --> 00:02:25.879 for good reason. The National Hurricane Center 00:02:25.879 --> 00:02:29.780 is actively highlighting a very large potential 00:02:29.780 --> 00:02:32.780 development area for this system. It's just begun 00:02:32.780 --> 00:02:35.270 its journey off the African continent. That's 00:02:35.270 --> 00:02:37.169 right. And when we look at its current state, 00:02:37.490 --> 00:02:40.490 it's quite notable. Initially, it's described 00:02:40.490 --> 00:02:43.370 as very large, somewhat ill -defined. Meaning 00:02:43.370 --> 00:02:46.330 not tightly wound yet. Exactly. It lacks a tightly 00:02:46.330 --> 00:02:48.669 organized center at this stage. But, and this 00:02:48.669 --> 00:02:51.110 is important, it is already showing some early 00:02:51.110 --> 00:02:53.389 signs of a circulation. That's a crucial first 00:02:53.389 --> 00:02:55.830 step. And perhaps most importantly, it's carrying 00:02:55.830 --> 00:02:58.289 a substantial amount of deep moisture with it. 00:02:58.310 --> 00:03:00.289 That's one of the foundational ingredients for 00:03:00.289 --> 00:03:03.250 a hurricane formation. Got it. Fuel. Right. Now, 00:03:03.409 --> 00:03:05.900 to put this in perspective, Unlike some previous 00:03:05.900 --> 00:03:08.379 systems we tracked this season, remember Invest 00:03:08.379 --> 00:03:11.300 96L? Yeah, the one that went north. Exactly. 00:03:11.740 --> 00:03:15.360 That tended to track northward because of a stubborn, 00:03:15.879 --> 00:03:18.639 blocking, high -pressure system. Think of it 00:03:18.639 --> 00:03:21.500 like a big, invisible wall in the atmosphere. 00:03:21.879 --> 00:03:24.740 Forcing things around it. Precisely. But for 00:03:24.740 --> 00:03:27.219 this new disturbance, there's actually a strong 00:03:27.219 --> 00:03:30.280 consensus among the various global computer forecasts. 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:32.780 They show it continuing on a general east -to 00:03:32.780 --> 00:03:34.840 -west path. Towards the Caribbean. Towards the 00:03:34.840 --> 00:03:37.120 Caribbean, yes, for the better part of next week. 00:03:37.740 --> 00:03:40.120 This is largely because that upper -level blocking 00:03:40.120 --> 00:03:42.819 high, while it's expected to weaken a bit, will 00:03:42.819 --> 00:03:45.139 still be strong enough to keep it moving generally 00:03:45.139 --> 00:03:47.960 westward for several days. Before any potential 00:03:47.960 --> 00:03:50.199 turn. Before any significant northward turn might 00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:53.719 happen later on. Okay. And... As with any potential 00:03:53.719 --> 00:03:56.479 storm, there are always these critical questions 00:03:56.479 --> 00:03:58.360 forecasters are wrestling with, right? What are 00:03:58.360 --> 00:04:00.560 the big unknowns for this system now? What are 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:03.340 meteorologists looking for? Well, the first major 00:04:03.340 --> 00:04:06.139 question really is when. When will this disturbance 00:04:06.139 --> 00:04:08.680 sufficiently fight off the dust and dry air it's 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:11.199 encountering? This Saharan air layer. Exactly. 00:04:11.699 --> 00:04:14.960 The Saharan air layer, that plume of dry, dusty 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:18.699 air, often moves off Africa right alongside these 00:04:18.699 --> 00:04:21.779 tropical waves. It acts as a real inhibitor. 00:04:21.899 --> 00:04:24.000 Like throwing sand in the gears. Kind of, yeah. 00:04:24.259 --> 00:04:26.699 This system needs to overcome that environmental 00:04:26.699 --> 00:04:29.819 resistance to really develop an organized circulation 00:04:29.819 --> 00:04:32.579 with sustained thunderstorms. It needs to clear 00:04:32.579 --> 00:04:35.100 out that dusty air to get going. Makes sense. 00:04:35.759 --> 00:04:38.040 And the second question. The second big question 00:04:38.040 --> 00:04:39.959 revolves around how the steering currents are 00:04:39.959 --> 00:04:42.680 going to evolve, especially as we head into next 00:04:42.680 --> 00:04:45.120 weekend and the following week. OK, explain steering 00:04:45.120 --> 00:04:47.860 currents again briefly. Think of them as invisible 00:04:47.860 --> 00:04:51.079 rivers of air high up in the atmosphere. They 00:04:51.079 --> 00:04:54.220 carry and guide weather systems, much like ocean 00:04:54.220 --> 00:04:56.519 currents guide a ship. Right. This is where the 00:04:56.519 --> 00:04:58.699 long -term track really comes into play. Those 00:04:58.699 --> 00:05:01.379 currents dictate the path. So how does something 00:05:01.379 --> 00:05:03.319 like the jet stream play into all of this? I 00:05:03.319 --> 00:05:05.000 know that can make a huge difference in where 00:05:05.000 --> 00:05:07.720 a storm ultimately goes, sometimes far from where 00:05:07.720 --> 00:05:10.180 it started. That's a great question, and it's 00:05:10.180 --> 00:05:12.839 absolutely pivotal here. The consensus among 00:05:12.839 --> 00:05:15.339 various computer forecasts suggests a slight 00:05:15.339 --> 00:05:18.220 dip in the jet stream is predicted. A dip, like 00:05:18.220 --> 00:05:20.860 a trough. Yeah, a trough, exactly. It's predicted 00:05:20.860 --> 00:05:23.519 to weaken that blocking high pressure system 00:05:23.519 --> 00:05:27.540 over the weekend. This weakening would then potentially 00:05:27.540 --> 00:05:30.560 allow the developing disturbance to lift slightly 00:05:30.560 --> 00:05:34.259 northward. But the exact nature, the timing, 00:05:34.500 --> 00:05:37.319 the depth of this dip that's critical, it will 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:39.920 directly control how close the system ultimately 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:42.339 comes to the northeastern Caribbean islands. 00:05:42.420 --> 00:05:44.759 And potentially beyond. And later potentially 00:05:44.759 --> 00:05:48.100 the Bahamas or the southeast United States. Many 00:05:48.100 --> 00:05:50.339 computer forecasts right now show the system 00:05:50.339 --> 00:05:53.060 as at least a tropical storm by that time nearing 00:05:53.060 --> 00:05:56.980 the Caribbean. Some even show hurricane strength. 00:05:57.139 --> 00:05:59.180 Wow, okay. This is why we watch the jet stream 00:05:59.180 --> 00:06:01.339 so closely. It's like the master conductor for 00:06:01.339 --> 00:06:03.540 these systems. And the rate at which a system 00:06:03.540 --> 00:06:05.800 intensifies also affects its path, isn't it? 00:06:05.980 --> 00:06:08.199 I remember hearing that. It seems a bit counterintuitive, 00:06:08.259 --> 00:06:10.759 maybe. It does, but it's a crucial point, often 00:06:10.759 --> 00:06:13.579 misunderstood. How quickly the storm intensifies 00:06:13.579 --> 00:06:16.470 is extremely important. Why is that? Because 00:06:16.470 --> 00:06:19.370 a stronger tropical system is much more likely 00:06:19.370 --> 00:06:21.850 to be pulled northward by that dip in the jet 00:06:21.850 --> 00:06:24.029 stream we just talked about. So stronger means 00:06:24.029 --> 00:06:27.050 more likely to turn north sooner. Generally, 00:06:27.250 --> 00:06:29.649 yes. Think of the atmosphere in layers, like 00:06:29.649 --> 00:06:32.410 a cake. Lower level winds might push a weaker, 00:06:32.610 --> 00:06:35.660 shallow storm westward. But a strong hurricane 00:06:35.660 --> 00:06:38.240 builds these towering thunderstorms. Right, way 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:41.040 up high. Exactly. They punch up into the faster, 00:06:41.139 --> 00:06:43.459 higher -altitude rivers of air, like the jet 00:06:43.459 --> 00:06:45.860 stream. It's like a shallow boat versus a deep 00:06:45.860 --> 00:06:48.980 -keeled ship. Only the ship gets truly speared 00:06:48.980 --> 00:06:51.899 by the deep, powerful currents. Gotcha. So the 00:06:51.899 --> 00:06:53.680 storm structure interacts differently with the 00:06:53.680 --> 00:06:57.199 steering layers. Precisely. A rapidly intensifying 00:06:57.199 --> 00:07:00.079 storm has its upper -level circulation influenced 00:07:00.079 --> 00:07:02.420 by those stronger, higher steering currents pulling 00:07:02.420 --> 00:07:05.339 it more northward. Conversely, a system that 00:07:05.339 --> 00:07:07.860 develops more slowly… Stays further west longer. 00:07:08.000 --> 00:07:10.279 Tends to travel farther west, yeah. It stays 00:07:10.279 --> 00:07:12.040 under the influence of the lower -level trade 00:07:12.040 --> 00:07:14.279 winds for a longer period before eventually making 00:07:14.279 --> 00:07:17.120 any northward turn. This difference in development 00:07:17.120 --> 00:07:19.279 pace can mean hundreds of miles difference in 00:07:19.279 --> 00:07:22.399 a long -range forecast track. And I imagine these 00:07:22.399 --> 00:07:24.459 subtle differences in development, how fast it 00:07:24.459 --> 00:07:27.959 spins up, the exact nature of those atmospheric 00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:30.740 layers, that's what causes all the varied long 00:07:30.740 --> 00:07:32.800 -range forecasts we see swirling around online, 00:07:33.060 --> 00:07:35.339 right? The ones that cause so much anxiety sometimes. 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:38.839 Precisely. The differences in the rate of intensification, 00:07:39.379 --> 00:07:42.060 along with the exact depth and nature of that 00:07:42.060 --> 00:07:44.769 jet stream dip. That's exactly what accounts 00:07:44.769 --> 00:07:47.209 for the wide range of long -range forecasts you 00:07:47.209 --> 00:07:54.189 might see. One possibility exactly because the 00:07:54.189 --> 00:07:56.069 precise evolution of these intricate details 00:07:56.069 --> 00:07:59.290 is at this point unknowable more than about say 00:07:59.290 --> 00:08:02.089 five to seven days out It's simply impossible 00:08:02.089 --> 00:08:04.670 to accurately forecast a storm's exact track 00:08:04.670 --> 00:08:07.569 a week or more in advance with any real confidence 00:08:07.569 --> 00:08:10.069 good reminder Yeah, a single model run showing 00:08:10.069 --> 00:08:12.370 a category five hitting your town ten days from 00:08:12.370 --> 00:08:15.269 now It's just one scenario out of many many possibilities. 00:08:15.269 --> 00:08:18.420 It should be viewed with extreme skepticism So 00:08:18.420 --> 00:08:20.560 given all this uncertainty, but also the potential, 00:08:21.019 --> 00:08:22.639 what does this all mean for us right now? How 00:08:22.639 --> 00:08:24.360 much hype should we pay attention to? How do 00:08:24.360 --> 00:08:27.139 we distill what's truly important? OK, what we 00:08:27.139 --> 00:08:30.120 do know with a good degree of confidence is this. 00:08:31.079 --> 00:08:34.360 The overall weather pattern across the Atlantic. 00:08:34.620 --> 00:08:37.320 from the Caribbean islands all the way to the 00:08:37.320 --> 00:08:41.159 southeast US coast, is currently forecast to 00:08:41.159 --> 00:08:43.860 be quite conducive for this system to organize 00:08:43.860 --> 00:08:47.179 and strengthen. It's a very favorable environment 00:08:47.179 --> 00:08:49.120 setting up. So the ingredients are there? The 00:08:49.120 --> 00:08:50.919 ingredients look like they'll be there, yes. 00:08:51.100 --> 00:08:53.899 In fact, enough long -range forecasts are showing 00:08:53.899 --> 00:08:56.340 the potential for hurricane development that 00:08:56.340 --> 00:08:58.500 we can say there's a good chance we'll see Hurricane 00:08:58.500 --> 00:09:00.340 Aaron emerge from this system within the next 00:09:00.340 --> 00:09:02.240 week or so. Okay, Hurricane Aaron potentially. 00:09:02.899 --> 00:09:05.519 But... And this is the big but. This is absolutely 00:09:05.519 --> 00:09:08.220 vital to clarify. Many of the potential tracks 00:09:08.220 --> 00:09:10.820 currently show the system turning northward and 00:09:10.820 --> 00:09:13.139 staying offshore of the East Coast as it approaches. 00:09:13.720 --> 00:09:16.059 So no need to panic about a specific landfall 00:09:16.059 --> 00:09:18.600 point yet. Absolutely no reason at this stage 00:09:18.600 --> 00:09:21.460 to focus on any one specific location for potential 00:09:21.460 --> 00:09:24.539 impacts or to begin, you know, drastic preparation 00:09:24.539 --> 00:09:27.700 as we move through next week. If the system becomes 00:09:27.700 --> 00:09:30.299 better defined, which the consensus of forecasts 00:09:30.299 --> 00:09:33.730 currently suggests, it will need this. then our 00:09:33.730 --> 00:09:36.029 confidence in what the computer projections are 00:09:36.029 --> 00:09:38.330 telling us will naturally increase significantly. 00:09:38.850 --> 00:09:40.750 We'll be able to narrow down those possibilities. 00:09:41.250 --> 00:09:43.250 That's a great reminder to keep perspective and 00:09:43.250 --> 00:09:45.429 focus on the current reliable information from 00:09:45.429 --> 00:09:49.009 the National Hurricane Center. Okay, beyond this 00:09:49.009 --> 00:09:51.789 main event, what else is stirring in the Atlantic 00:09:51.789 --> 00:09:54.269 right now? Any other systems we should be aware 00:09:54.269 --> 00:09:57.639 of, or are they largely fizzling out? Yes, there 00:09:57.639 --> 00:09:59.580 are a few other areas we've been tracking. The 00:09:59.580 --> 00:10:02.220 National Hurricane Center is still tracking INVEST 00:10:02.220 --> 00:10:04.679 -96L, the one we mentioned earlier that tracked 00:10:04.679 --> 00:10:07.139 north. How's that one looking? For this one, 00:10:07.259 --> 00:10:09.179 they've actually lowered the odds for it to develop 00:10:09.179 --> 00:10:11.419 into a tropical depression. It's in the low range 00:10:11.419 --> 00:10:13.740 now, meaning they're still investigating it, 00:10:14.059 --> 00:10:16.879 but its chances are looking slim. And no threat 00:10:16.879 --> 00:10:19.679 to land. No threat to land regardless. It's expected 00:10:19.679 --> 00:10:22.340 to turn out to sea well before reaching Bermuda. 00:10:22.570 --> 00:10:25.870 It's staying a fish storm, as we call them. OK. 00:10:26.129 --> 00:10:28.730 And what about that small system that was briefly 00:10:28.730 --> 00:10:31.620 offshore of the Carolinas? I think some coastal 00:10:31.620 --> 00:10:33.519 folks were watching that one. That small system, 00:10:33.720 --> 00:10:36.580 yeah, that one has now been completely absorbed 00:10:36.580 --> 00:10:38.980 by a cold front. It's effectively washed away, 00:10:39.019 --> 00:10:41.259 so it's no longer a factor for anyone. Gone. 00:10:41.460 --> 00:10:43.639 Pretty much. Its development odds had been lowered 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:46.399 to 20 % anyway, and it's expected to become non 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:49.000 -tropical and just move away. Might even bring 00:10:49.000 --> 00:10:51.539 some drier air to the Carolinas in its wake. 00:10:51.679 --> 00:10:54.100 Which might be welcome after recent rains in 00:10:54.100 --> 00:10:56.200 some spots. Could be, yeah. We also had tropical 00:10:56.200 --> 00:10:58.460 storm Dexter making some noise for a bit, didn't 00:10:58.460 --> 00:11:01.149 we? What happened with that system? Is it still 00:11:01.149 --> 00:11:05.149 a concern anywhere? Ah, Dexter. It did gain some 00:11:05.149 --> 00:11:07.769 steam for a bit, got itself a name, but it's 00:11:07.769 --> 00:11:10.009 now effectively hauling away from the United 00:11:10.009 --> 00:11:12.169 States. It's no longer a tropical system. It's 00:11:12.169 --> 00:11:14.590 become non -tropical. Another fish storm. Another 00:11:14.590 --> 00:11:17.350 fish storm, exactly. It's staying firmly in no 00:11:17.350 --> 00:11:20.049 man's land, way north of Bermuda, moving into 00:11:20.049 --> 00:11:22.029 cooler waters where it's steadily weakening. 00:11:22.549 --> 00:11:25.590 So no concerns there for land. Essentially just 00:11:25.590 --> 00:11:28.149 a remnant now. OK, good. So now that we've covered 00:11:28.149 --> 00:11:30.629 the current systems, let's step back again and 00:11:30.629 --> 00:11:33.629 look at that bigger picture. Why is the Atlantic 00:11:33.629 --> 00:11:36.750 waking up now? It really feels like someone flipped 00:11:36.750 --> 00:11:39.649 a switch after a relatively quiet June and July. 00:11:40.149 --> 00:11:42.529 What's driving this change? Yeah, it does feel 00:11:42.529 --> 00:11:44.769 like that sometimes. And if we connect this to 00:11:44.769 --> 00:11:47.269 the bigger picture. These forecasts, the ones 00:11:47.269 --> 00:11:49.710 we're seeing now, they're really telling us something 00:11:49.710 --> 00:11:52.090 important about the next few weeks. Right. The 00:11:52.090 --> 00:11:54.289 latest updates to the Atlantic hurricane season 00:11:54.289 --> 00:11:56.669 outlook from places like Colorado State University 00:11:56.669 --> 00:11:59.669 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:11:59.669 --> 00:12:01.769 know that they confirm this shift. What are they 00:12:01.769 --> 00:12:03.870 saying now? Still predicting an active season 00:12:03.870 --> 00:12:06.629 overall? They are. Colorado State is still predicting 00:12:06.629 --> 00:12:10.210 a robust season. 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, 00:12:10.350 --> 00:12:12.529 and three category three or stronger hurricanes. 00:12:12.649 --> 00:12:15.070 OK. And NOAA's forecast falls within a similar 00:12:15.070 --> 00:12:18.950 range. 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, 00:12:19.330 --> 00:12:21.789 and three to five major hurricanes. So still 00:12:21.789 --> 00:12:24.389 above average numbers expected. Definitely. And 00:12:24.389 --> 00:12:26.610 what these numbers overwhelmingly indicate is 00:12:26.610 --> 00:12:29.470 a season that is back -loaded. Back -loaded, 00:12:29.470 --> 00:12:32.090 meaning? Meaning we should expect significantly 00:12:32.090 --> 00:12:34.570 more hurricane activity later in the season, 00:12:34.789 --> 00:12:36.710 August, September, October, compared to the early 00:12:36.710 --> 00:12:38.870 part. And that's exactly what we're starting 00:12:38.870 --> 00:12:41.470 to see kick into gear right now. So this isn't 00:12:41.470 --> 00:12:43.610 random. It's a pattern. It's not just a random 00:12:43.610 --> 00:12:45.990 occurrence. It's a climatological pattern kicking 00:12:45.990 --> 00:12:48.169 into gear. So it's not just a coincidence we're 00:12:48.169 --> 00:12:50.190 suddenly seeing all this activity. This is actually 00:12:50.190 --> 00:12:53.309 a predictable shift, right? We're truly entering 00:12:53.309 --> 00:12:56.450 what's known as the Cape Verde season. Can you 00:12:56.450 --> 00:12:58.409 explain why that's so significant? What does 00:12:58.409 --> 00:13:01.629 that mean? Precisely. The main development region, 00:13:01.870 --> 00:13:04.809 the MDR as we call it, is indeed coming to life, 00:13:04.830 --> 00:13:07.470 which is entirely typical for this specific time 00:13:07.470 --> 00:13:10.220 of year. The MDR being that stretch from Africa 00:13:10.220 --> 00:13:12.519 towards the Caribbean. Exactly, that main nursery 00:13:12.519 --> 00:13:16.200 area. For centuries, mariners, meteorologists, 00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:18.480 they've observed that August, September, and 00:13:18.480 --> 00:13:21.259 October are the peak months for storms forming 00:13:21.259 --> 00:13:23.820 off the west coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde 00:13:23.820 --> 00:13:26.259 Islands, and then tracking westward across the 00:13:26.259 --> 00:13:28.340 Atlantic. And there are reasons for that timing. 00:13:28.639 --> 00:13:31.759 Oh, yes. There's a confluence of atmospheric 00:13:31.759 --> 00:13:34.299 and oceanic factors that are now falling into 00:13:34.299 --> 00:13:36.899 place to make this happen. First, the Atlantic 00:13:36.899 --> 00:13:39.809 waters. They are slightly warmer than normal 00:13:39.809 --> 00:13:42.090 right now. Still quite warm. Still quite warm. 00:13:42.529 --> 00:13:44.549 While maybe not as extreme as what we saw last 00:13:44.549 --> 00:13:47.129 year, sea surface temperatures are definitely 00:13:47.129 --> 00:13:51.210 warm upper 80s, even low 90s Fahrenheit in some 00:13:51.210 --> 00:13:53.950 spots, especially as you get closer to the windward 00:13:53.950 --> 00:13:56.389 and leeward islands and in the Gulf of Mexico. 00:13:56.669 --> 00:13:59.710 And warm water is fuel. It provides ample energy 00:13:59.710 --> 00:14:02.370 for storms to develop and intensify. Think of 00:14:02.370 --> 00:14:04.990 it as high octane fuel for these potential systems. 00:14:05.110 --> 00:14:08.049 OK. And I've heard the term La Nina light. being 00:14:08.049 --> 00:14:10.929 used recently. How does that play into the current 00:14:10.929 --> 00:14:13.169 conditions? What does that mean for hurricane 00:14:13.169 --> 00:14:15.250 development? That's a good observation. And it's 00:14:15.250 --> 00:14:17.450 another key factor. We're seeing what could be 00:14:17.450 --> 00:14:20.090 described as La Niña -like conditions developing 00:14:20.090 --> 00:14:21.789 in the Pacific. And that affects the Atlantic. 00:14:22.070 --> 00:14:24.889 It does. Generally, La Niña means the atmosphere 00:14:24.889 --> 00:14:27.350 over the Atlantic becomes more conducive to storm 00:14:27.350 --> 00:14:29.629 development, particularly later in the season. 00:14:29.710 --> 00:14:32.750 How so? In a nutshell, La Nina typically leads 00:14:32.750 --> 00:14:35.870 to reduced vertical wind shear over the main 00:14:35.870 --> 00:14:38.129 hurricane development regions of the Atlantic. 00:14:38.490 --> 00:14:41.029 Wind shear. That's bad for storms, right? Vertical 00:14:41.029 --> 00:14:43.409 wind shear is very bad for developing storms. 00:14:43.950 --> 00:14:46.470 It's the change in wind speed or direction with 00:14:46.470 --> 00:14:49.909 height in the atmosphere. Imagine a developing 00:14:49.909 --> 00:14:53.279 storm like a tall spinning top. Okay. Strong 00:14:53.279 --> 00:14:55.679 wind shear is like a giant hand trying to push 00:14:55.679 --> 00:14:57.600 that top over, tearing it apart before it can 00:14:57.600 --> 00:14:59.879 really get going and strengthen. Ah, disrupts 00:14:59.879 --> 00:15:03.059 the structure. Exactly. But low wind shear, on 00:15:03.059 --> 00:15:05.740 the other hand, allows that top to spin freely, 00:15:06.039 --> 00:15:09.120 grow taller, get organized. So with these La 00:15:09.120 --> 00:15:11.259 Niña light conditions potentially influencing 00:15:11.259 --> 00:15:14.460 things, we expect really low wind shear right 00:15:14.460 --> 00:15:16.879 over where these storms may potentially form. 00:15:17.100 --> 00:15:19.700 Fewer disruptive forces. Fewer disruptive forces 00:15:19.700 --> 00:15:22.120 high up that can tear apart developing. systems. 00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:23.820 And remember, the upper level winds over the 00:15:23.820 --> 00:15:26.539 Caribbean were very hostile back in June and 00:15:26.539 --> 00:15:29.019 July. That was like a double minus against storm 00:15:29.019 --> 00:15:30.419 development. Why aren't things were quiet then? 00:15:30.740 --> 00:15:33.159 But those conditions are now balancing out. They're 00:15:33.159 --> 00:15:35.879 becoming much more favorable, allowing for this 00:15:35.879 --> 00:15:38.059 increase in activity. So all the ingredients 00:15:38.059 --> 00:15:41.240 are coming together. Warm water, minimal shear, 00:15:41.379 --> 00:15:43.779 and those tropical waves rolling off Africa. 00:15:44.120 --> 00:15:46.440 So it sounds like we might be seeing a steady 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:50.019 stream, or as some people call it, a parade of 00:15:50.019 --> 00:15:52.600 systems. coming off Africa from this point forward. 00:15:52.740 --> 00:15:55.200 Is that likely? The current pattern certainly 00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:57.179 looks like it will lead to something like a parade 00:15:57.179 --> 00:15:59.320 of systems coming in the general direction of 00:15:59.320 --> 00:16:02.080 the Caribbean. This is quite common as the Cape 00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:04.919 Verde season really kicks into high gear. And 00:16:04.919 --> 00:16:07.220 historically this timing lines up. It lines up 00:16:07.220 --> 00:16:10.240 perfectly. To put it in historical context, the 00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:12.500 average date for the first Atlantic hurricane 00:16:12.500 --> 00:16:14.860 formation is August 11th. We're right around 00:16:14.860 --> 00:16:17.500 there. We are, and the climatological peak of 00:16:17.500 --> 00:16:20.080 the entire hurricane season is September 10th. 00:16:20.120 --> 00:16:22.159 So we're still building towards the peak. This 00:16:22.159 --> 00:16:24.639 really reinforces that idea of a back -loaded 00:16:24.639 --> 00:16:26.899 season. Any past seasons this reminds you of. 00:16:27.070 --> 00:16:30.309 Well, we can draw some parallels. The 2010 hurricane 00:16:30.309 --> 00:16:32.830 season also had a quiet start. June and July 00:16:32.830 --> 00:16:35.850 were slow. But then it saw a significant pickup 00:16:35.850 --> 00:16:38.830 in late August. That year was actually heavy 00:16:38.830 --> 00:16:41.470 on fish storms that thankfully stayed out at 00:16:41.470 --> 00:16:43.850 sea. So active doesn't always mean landfalls. 00:16:44.110 --> 00:16:46.649 Doesn't always mean landfalls, exactly. It offers 00:16:46.649 --> 00:16:49.269 a hopeful parallel that increased activity depends 00:16:49.269 --> 00:16:51.210 heavily on those steering currents we talked 00:16:51.210 --> 00:16:54.029 about. But then you look further back, 2004 was 00:16:54.029 --> 00:16:58.580 a very busy landfalling year. Ivan Jean Francis. 00:16:59.100 --> 00:17:01.580 Yeah, remember that. That reminds us of the potential 00:17:01.580 --> 00:17:04.480 impact. The point is, the shift in activity is 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:06.680 well within historical norms for this time of 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:09.599 year, but the conditions now are very conducive 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:12.220 for that activity to really ramp up. So what 00:17:12.220 --> 00:17:14.019 does all this mean for us as we try to navigate 00:17:14.019 --> 00:17:17.099 this increasingly active period? Because it feels 00:17:17.099 --> 00:17:19.019 like as soon as the tropics wake up, so does 00:17:19.019 --> 00:17:21.640 the, let's call it, information storm on social 00:17:21.640 --> 00:17:24.400 media. Right. This raises that important question. 00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:27.009 Yeah. How do we make sense of all this information 00:17:27.009 --> 00:17:29.529 without getting swept up in the hype, the anxiety? 00:17:29.789 --> 00:17:31.589 One of the biggest issues we encounter every 00:17:31.589 --> 00:17:34.549 year is what some people playfully call the GFS 00:17:34.549 --> 00:17:37.799 Kane phenomenon. GFS Kane. meaning those crazy 00:17:37.799 --> 00:17:40.539 looking maps. Exactly. You'll see these viral 00:17:40.539 --> 00:17:44.000 social media posts showing extreme storms, sometimes 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:46.720 category five monsters, supposedly impacting 00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:49.859 specific parts of the coast 10, 12, 14 days out. 00:17:50.099 --> 00:17:52.759 I see those all the time. It's crucial, crucial 00:17:52.759 --> 00:17:55.180 to understand that these single scenario maps 00:17:55.180 --> 00:17:58.089 are very often designed purely for clicks. They 00:17:58.089 --> 00:18:00.890 get shared like wildfire. But they aren't reliable 00:18:00.890 --> 00:18:03.410 forecasts. They are not skillful or credible 00:18:03.410 --> 00:18:05.650 forecasts at that range. They are simply too 00:18:05.650 --> 00:18:08.089 far in the future to be reliable. Models like 00:18:08.089 --> 00:18:10.450 the GFS, the Global Forecast System, they tend 00:18:10.450 --> 00:18:13.210 to spin up a storm far out in their calculations. 00:18:13.329 --> 00:18:15.930 Just trying possibilities. Kind of. And such 00:18:15.930 --> 00:18:18.230 specific forecasts will literally bounce around 00:18:18.230 --> 00:18:20.950 daily, changing drastically as new data comes 00:18:20.950 --> 00:18:23.910 in. There's no real news or actionable information 00:18:23.910 --> 00:18:26.190 in those single scary looking maps. They just 00:18:26.190 --> 00:18:29.789 create unnecessary anxiety. So if single model 00:18:29.789 --> 00:18:33.470 runs aren't reliable that far out, what should 00:18:33.470 --> 00:18:35.529 we be looking at? What's the difference? Because 00:18:35.529 --> 00:18:37.509 I know there's a lot of talk about ensemble forecasts. 00:18:37.930 --> 00:18:40.210 How do they help us gain more confidence? That's 00:18:40.210 --> 00:18:42.309 where the power of ensembles comes in, and it's 00:18:42.309 --> 00:18:44.490 a vital concept for anyone following hurricane 00:18:44.490 --> 00:18:47.650 season seriously. Okay, explain ensembles. Ensemble 00:18:47.650 --> 00:18:49.950 forecasts, like those from the European model 00:18:49.950 --> 00:18:52.950 ensemble system or even the newer Google AI model 00:18:52.950 --> 00:18:57.829 and the Euro AI model. They run their core atmospheric 00:18:57.829 --> 00:19:01.089 model many, many times. Not just once. Not just 00:19:01.089 --> 00:19:04.869 once. Sometimes up to 50 or 100 times, each with 00:19:04.869 --> 00:19:07.630 subtle, slightly varied starting conditions, 00:19:08.329 --> 00:19:10.089 tiny changes in temperature, pressure, things 00:19:10.089 --> 00:19:11.970 like that. To account for uncertainty in the 00:19:11.970 --> 00:19:14.670 starting point. Precisely. This process generates 00:19:14.670 --> 00:19:17.210 a wide range of possible outcomes. It creates 00:19:17.210 --> 00:19:19.490 what often looks like a spaghetti plot on a map, 00:19:19.930 --> 00:19:22.349 where each strand represents a different potential 00:19:22.349 --> 00:19:24.430 track from one of those model runs. I've seen 00:19:24.430 --> 00:19:26.869 those spaghetti plots. Right. Now when you see 00:19:26.869 --> 00:19:29.049 the different colors representing these different 00:19:29.049 --> 00:19:31.529 runs clustering tightly together. All going to 00:19:31.529 --> 00:19:35.220 roughly the same place. Exactly. That gives forecasters 00:19:35.220 --> 00:19:37.680 much higher confidence in a particular outcome. 00:19:38.279 --> 00:19:40.400 It means that even with slight uncertainties 00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:42.960 in the initial data, the model keeps pointing 00:19:42.960 --> 00:19:45.079 to a similar solution. And if they're spread 00:19:45.079 --> 00:19:47.240 out all over the place? Conversely, when those 00:19:47.240 --> 00:19:49.500 lines are widespread and scattered, like spaghetti 00:19:49.500 --> 00:19:52.420 thrown against a wall, it indicates very high 00:19:52.420 --> 00:19:55.440 uncertainty, even for new technologies like Google's 00:19:55.440 --> 00:19:58.900 AI model. So spread means... Low confidence. 00:19:59.099 --> 00:20:01.819 Low confidence. It tells us the atmosphere is 00:20:01.819 --> 00:20:04.099 less predictable at that time. By the way, that 00:20:04.099 --> 00:20:06.480 Google AI model is available for anyone to look 00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:08.980 at. And while it's still improving, it has this 00:20:08.980 --> 00:20:11.539 unique ability to self -correct and update much 00:20:11.539 --> 00:20:14.539 faster than the traditional models. But the principle 00:20:14.539 --> 00:20:17.990 is the same. Convergence means confidence. Divergence 00:20:17.990 --> 00:20:20.450 means uncertainty. That's what meteorologists 00:20:20.450 --> 00:20:23.190 use to gauge the forecast confidence. That makes 00:20:23.190 --> 00:20:25.190 a lot more sense looking at the consensus, not 00:20:25.190 --> 00:20:28.049 just one wild outlier. Okay, and then there's 00:20:28.049 --> 00:20:30.230 the cone of uncertainty, which I think still 00:20:30.230 --> 00:20:32.289 often gets misunderstood. What's the biggest 00:20:32.289 --> 00:20:34.170 misconception you find people have about the 00:20:34.170 --> 00:20:37.210 cone? Oh, the cone. Yeah, probably one of the 00:20:37.210 --> 00:20:39.730 most misunderstood visuals in hurricane forecasting. 00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:43.440 The biggest misconception, hands down, is that 00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:46.119 the cone represents the area of impacts. Like 00:20:46.119 --> 00:20:47.960 if you're outside the cone, you're safe. That's 00:20:47.960 --> 00:20:49.859 exactly the misconception and it's absolutely 00:20:49.859 --> 00:20:51.640 not true. It's crucial to understand the cone 00:20:51.640 --> 00:20:54.019 is specifically designed to show the probable 00:20:54.019 --> 00:20:56.759 track of the center of the storm based on historical 00:20:56.759 --> 00:20:59.940 forecast errors. Just the probable path of the 00:20:59.940 --> 00:21:02.660 center point over time. It does not by any means 00:21:02.660 --> 00:21:05.000 represent the entirety of the storm's impacts. 00:21:05.119 --> 00:21:07.759 Because impacts are much wider. Much wider. Impacts 00:21:07.759 --> 00:21:10.750 like heavy rain, strong winds, danger. a storm 00:21:10.750 --> 00:21:15.170 surge, they can and often do extend far beyond 00:21:15.170 --> 00:21:17.490 the boundaries of that cone, sometimes hundreds 00:21:17.490 --> 00:21:19.670 of miles away from the center. That's a really 00:21:19.670 --> 00:21:21.809 important distinction. It is. On the positive 00:21:21.809 --> 00:21:24.650 side, the cone has actually narrowed significantly 00:21:24.650 --> 00:21:27.470 over the years. Oh really? Why is that? It reflects 00:21:27.470 --> 00:21:30.029 the much improved accuracy and track forecasting. 00:21:31.009 --> 00:21:33.210 Meteorologists have gotten much better at predicting 00:21:33.210 --> 00:21:36.329 where a storm will go. That's a huge success 00:21:36.329 --> 00:21:39.339 story. But intensity is still tricky. Exactly. 00:21:39.900 --> 00:21:42.599 A significant challenge that remains is intensity 00:21:42.599 --> 00:21:46.220 forecasting, especially predicting rapid intensification 00:21:46.220 --> 00:21:48.759 when a storm suddenly strengthens much faster 00:21:48.759 --> 00:21:50.579 than expected. Right. That can happen quickly. 00:21:50.740 --> 00:21:53.160 It can. Yeah. And because of this uncertainty 00:21:53.160 --> 00:21:56.000 and intensity, our advice generally is always 00:21:56.000 --> 00:21:58.559 to prepare for a storm potentially one category 00:21:58.559 --> 00:22:01.819 stronger than what is officially forecast, especially 00:22:01.819 --> 00:22:04.140 given the potential for rapid intensification 00:22:04.140 --> 00:22:08.099 over very warm waters like those warm ocean eddies. 00:22:07.880 --> 00:22:11.019 that can act like rocket fuel. Good advice. So 00:22:11.019 --> 00:22:13.279 don't focus on the edge of the cone. Don't focus 00:22:13.279 --> 00:22:14.940 on the edge of the cone. Focus on whether your 00:22:14.940 --> 00:22:17.519 location is in the general vicinity of its potential 00:22:17.519 --> 00:22:20.200 path and prepare for potential impacts accordingly, 00:22:20.759 --> 00:22:22.779 considering the intensity uncertainty. Okay, 00:22:22.940 --> 00:22:25.920 now having discussed how meteorologists use these 00:22:25.920 --> 00:22:28.500 tools, the models, the comb, and understand their 00:22:28.500 --> 00:22:31.559 limitations, let's maybe look at how they apply 00:22:31.559 --> 00:22:34.019 that understanding to the very latest raw data 00:22:34.019 --> 00:22:37.099 coming in. This informs their confidence levels, 00:22:37.299 --> 00:22:39.599 right? It's almost like looking over a meteorologist's 00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:42.259 shoulder at their notes. What are the current 00:22:42.259 --> 00:22:45.079 specifics for that main African tropical wave, 00:22:45.220 --> 00:22:48.119 18W, from the latest technical discussions? Certainly, 00:22:48.299 --> 00:22:50.579 yeah. Zooming in on those latest tropical weather 00:22:50.579 --> 00:22:53.440 discussions, which are quite detailed, that African 00:22:53.440 --> 00:22:56.319 tropical wave, designated 18W, currently has 00:22:56.319 --> 00:22:58.640 its axis, its center line, essentially positioned 00:22:58.640 --> 00:23:02.119 roughly along 18 degrees west longitude. It extends 00:23:02.119 --> 00:23:04.880 southward from about 16 degrees north latitude. 00:23:05.279 --> 00:23:08.619 And what's associated with it? Clouds. Thunderstorms. 00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:10.420 Associated with this wave, we're observing, and 00:23:10.420 --> 00:23:12.440 this is their terminology, numerous moderate 00:23:12.440 --> 00:23:16.240 to isolated strong convection. Which means thunderstorms. 00:23:16.380 --> 00:23:18.859 Thunderstorms, yeah. Rising air creating clouds 00:23:18.859 --> 00:23:21.359 and storms. This activity is located generally 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:23.920 from 1 degree north to 15 degrees north latitude 00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:26.940 and east of 20 degrees west longitude. And the 00:23:26.940 --> 00:23:29.569 forecast for it. Development chances. The National 00:23:29.569 --> 00:23:32.069 Hurricane Center indicates a low chance of slow 00:23:32.069 --> 00:23:33.910 development for this wave over the next seven 00:23:33.910 --> 00:23:35.869 days. That's the official word right now. Low 00:23:35.869 --> 00:23:38.609 chance, but still possible. Still possible, yes. 00:23:38.950 --> 00:23:42.710 As it moves west, northwestward at about 15 knots 00:23:42.710 --> 00:23:45.069 across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. 00:23:45.289 --> 00:23:47.910 The main hurdles right now are still that initial 00:23:47.910 --> 00:23:50.329 dry air and dust it's encountering. Those are 00:23:50.329 --> 00:23:53.230 the primary hindrances. OK. And there's also 00:23:53.230 --> 00:23:55.029 that central Atlantic tropical wave you mentioned, 00:23:55.049 --> 00:23:58.009 AL -96. What's the latest on that one? How's 00:23:58.009 --> 00:24:00.210 it behaving? Yes, the Central Atlantic Tropical 00:24:00.210 --> 00:24:04.430 Wave, identified as 46W, or also INVEST AL96. 00:24:04.789 --> 00:24:08.089 Its axis is along 46 degrees west longitude, 00:24:08.309 --> 00:24:11.329 stretching from 9 north to 23 north, also moving 00:24:11.329 --> 00:24:13.890 westward around 15 knots. And there's a low pressure 00:24:13.890 --> 00:24:16.609 with it. There's a 1013 millibar low pressure 00:24:16.609 --> 00:24:19.789 center, that's AL96 specifically, noted along 00:24:19.789 --> 00:24:22.630 the northern part of this wave's axis, near 20 00:24:22.630 --> 00:24:25.289 north latitude. Scattered moderate convection 00:24:25.289 --> 00:24:27.849 more thunderstorms is present near this low between 00:24:27.849 --> 00:24:30.710 44 and 47 west longitude development odds for 00:24:30.710 --> 00:24:33.079 this one Well, development of this specific low 00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:35.920 pressure is not expected over the next 48 hours. 00:24:36.200 --> 00:24:38.720 Again, mainly due to dry air surrounding it, 00:24:38.799 --> 00:24:41.500 that common initial obstacle. But longer term. 00:24:41.940 --> 00:24:44.140 Some gradual development is possible during the 00:24:44.140 --> 00:24:46.259 early or middle part of next week as the system 00:24:46.259 --> 00:24:48.720 moves north westward to northward across the 00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:51.759 central Atlantic. So this feature also carries 00:24:51.759 --> 00:24:53.819 a low chance of tropical development over the 00:24:53.819 --> 00:24:56.160 next seven days. But it's another one in that 00:24:56.160 --> 00:24:58.440 parade that we're definitely monitoring. Good 00:24:58.440 --> 00:25:01.000 to keep track of the individual players. How 00:25:01.000 --> 00:25:03.700 about the broader atmospheric features, like 00:25:03.700 --> 00:25:06.099 the monsoon trough and the intertropical convergence 00:25:06.099 --> 00:25:09.279 zone, the ITCZ? They're always key players, right, 00:25:09.339 --> 00:25:11.559 like the nurseries. Indeed they are. Understanding 00:25:11.559 --> 00:25:13.779 them provides crucial context for where these 00:25:13.779 --> 00:25:16.700 waves come from. The monsoon trough axis currently 00:25:16.700 --> 00:25:20.619 enters the Atlantic near 19 north, 16 .5 west, 00:25:21.000 --> 00:25:23.839 and then stretches southwestward to 5 .5 north, 00:25:24.180 --> 00:25:26.880 38 west. And that's a low pressure area. It is. 00:25:27.240 --> 00:25:29.460 This trough is essentially a zone of enhanced 00:25:29.460 --> 00:25:32.359 moisture and instability in the atmosphere, often 00:25:32.359 --> 00:25:34.259 the breeding ground for the very waves that can 00:25:34.259 --> 00:25:37.099 become tropical systems later on. And the ITCZ. 00:25:37.440 --> 00:25:40.480 The Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, 00:25:40.740 --> 00:25:43.799 is currently located from 14 North, 48 West to 00:25:43.799 --> 00:25:47.430 11 North. 58 West. This is that persistent belt 00:25:47.430 --> 00:25:50.109 of low pressure near the equator where the trade 00:25:50.109 --> 00:25:52.269 winds from the northern and southern hemispheres 00:25:52.269 --> 00:25:54.670 converge. Creates rising air. Creates lots of 00:25:54.670 --> 00:25:56.829 rising air leading to widespread convection. 00:25:57.170 --> 00:25:59.450 We've observed scattered moderate convection 00:25:59.450 --> 00:26:02.009 forming this morning from five north to nine 00:26:02.009 --> 00:26:05.549 north between 20 West and 30 West, all associated 00:26:05.549 --> 00:26:08.109 with these broader features. They serve as continuous 00:26:08.109 --> 00:26:10.630 sources of tropical activity. These are really 00:26:10.630 --> 00:26:13.009 the large scale drivers of the Cape Verde season. 00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:15.069 OK, let's bring. We're getting a bit closer to 00:26:15.069 --> 00:26:17.369 home now. What are the prevailing conditions 00:26:17.369 --> 00:26:19.470 in the Gulf of Mexico right now? Is it quiet 00:26:19.470 --> 00:26:21.269 over there, or are there any brewing concerns? 00:26:21.509 --> 00:26:23.569 In the Gulf of Mexico, things are relatively 00:26:23.569 --> 00:26:26.230 quiet overall. There's a surface trough extending 00:26:26.230 --> 00:26:29.690 across northern Florida to near 27 north, 86 00:26:29.690 --> 00:26:32.579 west. Any weather with that? Scattered moderate 00:26:32.579 --> 00:26:35.079 convection, some thunderstorms, continue north 00:26:35.079 --> 00:26:37.380 of this trough, mainly offshore of the Florida 00:26:37.380 --> 00:26:39.940 Panhandle, and also over the far eastern gulf, 00:26:40.079 --> 00:26:43.039 east of 85 West. There's also some scattered 00:26:43.039 --> 00:26:45.319 moderate convection ongoing over the eastern 00:26:45.319 --> 00:26:47.900 bay of Campache, linked to a surface trough along 00:26:47.900 --> 00:26:50.180 the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. But 00:26:50.180 --> 00:26:52.859 mostly calm. Otherwise, yeah, the basin is largely 00:26:52.859 --> 00:26:56.259 dominated by a 10 -15 millibar high pressure 00:26:56.259 --> 00:26:58.799 system centered in the western gulf that's leading 00:26:58.799 --> 00:27:01.559 to light, to gentle winds and... relatively slight 00:27:01.559 --> 00:27:04.920 seas, generally calm conditions. And the forecast 00:27:04.920 --> 00:27:07.519 for the Gulf? Weak high pressure is expected 00:27:07.519 --> 00:27:09.960 to continue dominating the weather pattern across 00:27:09.960 --> 00:27:11.980 the Gulf waters into the middle of next week. 00:27:12.539 --> 00:27:14.859 That supports mostly gentle to moderate winds 00:27:14.859 --> 00:27:17.700 and slight to moderate seas. We might see some 00:27:17.700 --> 00:27:20.160 fresh northeast winds pulse nightly, starting 00:27:20.160 --> 00:27:22.740 maybe Monday night, west of the Yucatan Peninsula. 00:27:23.000 --> 00:27:25.839 That's as a diurnal trough, a daily low pressure 00:27:25.839 --> 00:27:28.140 feature moves westward offshore into the Bay 00:27:28.140 --> 00:27:30.740 of Kempest each evening. But overall, the Gulf 00:27:30.740 --> 00:27:33.480 remains fairly quiet for now. Always worth keeping 00:27:33.480 --> 00:27:36.160 an eye on, though. Always. Okay, and what about 00:27:36.160 --> 00:27:40.700 the Caribbean Sea? Active? Or relatively quiet 00:27:40.700 --> 00:27:43.140 compared to the deeper Atlantic where those waves 00:27:43.140 --> 00:27:45.299 are forming? The Caribbean Sea has seen some 00:27:45.299 --> 00:27:47.819 changes recently. Convection that was previously 00:27:47.819 --> 00:27:50.019 active in the Northwest basin dissipated early 00:27:50.019 --> 00:27:52.519 this morning, so fair weather is now prevailing 00:27:52.519 --> 00:27:54.619 throughout most of the basin, with the trade 00:27:54.619 --> 00:27:56.779 winds dominating. What kind of winds? We're seeing 00:27:56.779 --> 00:28:00.299 moderate to fresh easterlies in the Central Basin, 00:28:00.700 --> 00:28:03.019 gentle to moderate east winds in the eastern 00:28:03.019 --> 00:28:05.880 and southwest parts. In the Northwest Caribbean, 00:28:06.420 --> 00:28:08.519 light to gentle southeast winds are present. 00:28:09.039 --> 00:28:11.630 And the seas? Seas are generally three to five 00:28:11.630 --> 00:28:14.410 feet, a bit higher, maybe five to seven feet 00:28:14.410 --> 00:28:17.269 in the south central basin, and calmer one to 00:28:17.269 --> 00:28:19.670 three feet up in the northwest. What's the forecast 00:28:19.670 --> 00:28:21.970 look like for the Caribbean? Looking ahead, high 00:28:21.970 --> 00:28:24.089 pressure located north of the basin, combined 00:28:24.089 --> 00:28:26.650 with the Colombian low to the south, that setup 00:28:26.650 --> 00:28:29.450 will support fresh to locally strong winds and 00:28:29.450 --> 00:28:32.269 moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore 00:28:32.269 --> 00:28:35.069 of Venezuela and Colombia. That's primarily today. 00:28:35.269 --> 00:28:37.779 Gets windy there sometimes. It does. After a 00:28:37.779 --> 00:28:40.640 brief lull, a passing tropical wave is expected 00:28:40.640 --> 00:28:43.079 to cause similar wind speeds to return again 00:28:43.079 --> 00:28:46.039 starting Tuesday. And in the Gulf of Honduras, 00:28:46.180 --> 00:28:48.619 we might see pulsing winds of fresh speeds with 00:28:48.619 --> 00:28:50.960 moderate seas tonight through Wednesday night. 00:28:51.220 --> 00:28:53.240 But elsewhere. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, 00:28:53.740 --> 00:28:56.079 gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 00:28:56.079 --> 00:28:59.599 seas are forecast through early next week. So 00:28:59.599 --> 00:29:02.920 a few localized areas of elevated winds and seas, 00:29:03.140 --> 00:29:05.720 but largely stable for now compared to the main. 00:29:05.740 --> 00:29:08.240 development region. OK, moving farther out into 00:29:08.240 --> 00:29:10.440 the Atlantic Ocean, away from the immediate coastal 00:29:10.440 --> 00:29:13.359 areas in the Caribbean, what's happening in those 00:29:13.359 --> 00:29:15.660 open waters that might influence systems down 00:29:15.660 --> 00:29:17.900 the line? Or just tell us about the general state. 00:29:18.279 --> 00:29:20.500 Right. Out in the broader Atlantic, there's a 00:29:20.500 --> 00:29:22.339 deep layer trough. Remember, that's a persistent 00:29:22.339 --> 00:29:24.640 area of low pressure and instability through 00:29:24.640 --> 00:29:26.759 much of the atmosphere. It's situated across 00:29:26.759 --> 00:29:29.160 the far northwest waters right now. Causing any 00:29:29.160 --> 00:29:31.569 weather. It is currently leading to scattered 00:29:31.569 --> 00:29:34.849 moderate to isolated strong convection west of 00:29:34.849 --> 00:29:38.390 77 west longitude that's impacting waters offshore 00:29:38.390 --> 00:29:40.769 of Florida and the northwest Bahamas. There's 00:29:40.769 --> 00:29:43.730 also a surface trough extending from 30 north 00:29:43.730 --> 00:29:47.710 56 west down to 25 north 61 west but that one 00:29:47.710 --> 00:29:49.910 is producing little in the way of significant 00:29:49.910 --> 00:29:52.220 weather right now. The remaining convection out 00:29:52.220 --> 00:29:54.299 in the basin is mostly associated with those 00:29:54.299 --> 00:29:56.519 tropical waves and the monsoon trough we already 00:29:56.519 --> 00:29:59.339 discussed. What about winds and seas out there? 00:29:59.900 --> 00:30:02.619 Generally west of 50 degrees west longitude, 00:30:02.779 --> 00:30:05.359 we're seeing gentle east winds and moderate seas. 00:30:05.799 --> 00:30:08.680 To the east of 50 west, for waters south of 15 00:30:08.680 --> 00:30:11.980 north, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 00:30:11.980 --> 00:30:14.960 6 feet are dominant. North of 15 north, however, 00:30:15.000 --> 00:30:18.019 it's windier. Fresh to locally strong northeast 00:30:18.019 --> 00:30:20.299 winds and seas of 6 to 10 feet are dominant. 00:30:20.170 --> 00:30:22.230 Where are the highest seas? The highest seas 00:30:22.230 --> 00:30:24.309 are specifically noted in a corridor stretching 00:30:24.309 --> 00:30:27.789 from 18 north to 26 north latitude, between 18 00:30:27.789 --> 00:30:30.529 west and 34 west longitudes, so quite choppy 00:30:30.529 --> 00:30:32.349 out there in that zone. And the forecast for 00:30:32.349 --> 00:30:34.730 the open Atlantic? Anything developing? For the 00:30:34.730 --> 00:30:37.970 forecast west of 55 west, that low pressure system, 00:30:38.089 --> 00:30:40.569 AL96, the one associated with the tropical waves 00:30:40.569 --> 00:30:42.690 southeast of the region, is forecast to move 00:30:42.690 --> 00:30:45.740 northwest. It may impact the far northeast waters 00:30:45.740 --> 00:30:47.779 during the early to middle parts of next week. 00:30:48.160 --> 00:30:50.299 Still low chance of development, though. Still 00:30:50.299 --> 00:30:52.380 a low chance of tropical formation with this 00:30:52.380 --> 00:30:55.000 low as it moves northwest or north during this 00:30:55.000 --> 00:30:58.180 period. Otherwise, a relatively weak pressure 00:30:58.180 --> 00:31:00.579 gradient, meaning only slight differences in 00:31:00.579 --> 00:31:02.920 air pressure will support generally gentle to 00:31:02.920 --> 00:31:05.700 moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across 00:31:05.700 --> 00:31:07.819 most of the Western Atlantic region through Sunday. 00:31:08.250 --> 00:31:11.009 Maybe some occasional fresh pulsing winds near 00:31:11.009 --> 00:31:14.490 Hispaniola. It's truly a vast and dynamic ocean 00:31:14.490 --> 00:31:18.190 out there. It really is. So after all that incredibly 00:31:18.190 --> 00:31:20.730 detailed technical discussion, let's bring it 00:31:20.730 --> 00:31:22.789 back again to what this all means for you, our 00:31:22.789 --> 00:31:25.150 listener. What practical concerns should you 00:31:25.150 --> 00:31:27.049 be thinking about, especially as we head into 00:31:27.049 --> 00:31:29.230 this clearly more active part of the season? 00:31:29.730 --> 00:31:31.930 What are some of the realities of a backloaded 00:31:31.930 --> 00:31:35.099 season kicking in? Yeah, absolutely. One significant 00:31:35.099 --> 00:31:37.680 concern that often arises, and it's increasingly 00:31:37.680 --> 00:31:40.440 critical to understand even with weaker systems 00:31:40.440 --> 00:31:42.859 or storms that don't make a direct landfall, 00:31:43.299 --> 00:31:45.440 is inland flooding. Not just storm surge on the 00:31:45.440 --> 00:31:48.730 coast. Exactly. This is really important. We 00:31:48.730 --> 00:31:51.170 know that warmer air holds significantly more 00:31:51.170 --> 00:31:54.650 moisture. It's basic physics. For every degree 00:31:54.650 --> 00:31:57.109 Celsius hotter, the air can hold about seven 00:31:57.109 --> 00:32:00.410 percent more water vapor. Wow. Seven percent 00:32:00.410 --> 00:32:03.609 per degree. It adds up fast. So this means that 00:32:03.609 --> 00:32:06.210 when storms do fire up in this warmer environment, 00:32:06.250 --> 00:32:08.490 they can carry a tremendous amount more rain. 00:32:08.910 --> 00:32:11.349 That leads to potentially very heavy amounts 00:32:11.349 --> 00:32:13.950 of precipitation over a short period. Even far 00:32:13.950 --> 00:32:16.109 from the storm center. If you are inland, in 00:32:16.109 --> 00:32:18.230 areas that might not typically associate themselves 00:32:18.230 --> 00:32:21.029 with direct hurricane wind impacts, if you live 00:32:21.029 --> 00:32:23.190 in an area prone to inland flooding, maybe from 00:32:23.190 --> 00:32:25.250 overflowing rivers, already saturated ground, 00:32:25.430 --> 00:32:27.589 or overwhelmed drainage systems, this is definitely 00:32:27.589 --> 00:32:30.190 something to acknowledge and prepare for proactively. 00:32:30.329 --> 00:32:32.569 Good point. It's not just a coastal threat. Not 00:32:32.569 --> 00:32:35.309 at all. Water is often the biggest danger. And 00:32:35.309 --> 00:32:37.730 as we talk about preparing, you know, those of 00:32:37.730 --> 00:32:40.069 us who live in hurricane prone areas like Florida, 00:32:40.529 --> 00:32:42.809 we often have our own little hurricane preparedness. 00:32:43.349 --> 00:32:45.430 strategies or hacks we've picked up over the 00:32:45.430 --> 00:32:48.349 years. What are some practical tips for folks 00:32:48.349 --> 00:32:51.190 to get ready now before something potentially 00:32:51.190 --> 00:32:53.970 develops maybe beyond just the basic flashlight 00:32:53.970 --> 00:32:56.589 and batteries kit? Absolutely. Now is absolutely 00:32:56.589 --> 00:32:59.089 the time to prepare. Don't wait until a storm 00:32:59.089 --> 00:33:00.930 is bearing down on you and the store shelves 00:33:00.930 --> 00:33:03.710 are completely empty. The lines get crazy. They 00:33:03.710 --> 00:33:07.890 do. Beyond the basic emergency kit, consider 00:33:07.890 --> 00:33:10.569 some strategic hacks that can really help. One 00:33:10.569 --> 00:33:13.710 I've heard for important documents, passports, 00:33:14.190 --> 00:33:16.890 insurance papers, irreplaceable family photos. 00:33:17.730 --> 00:33:19.730 A dishwasher can actually be a surprisingly safe 00:33:19.730 --> 00:33:21.809 place to store them during potential flooding. 00:33:22.309 --> 00:33:24.769 It's designed to be watertight, right? Never 00:33:24.769 --> 00:33:27.529 thought of that. Clever. Another great tip, especially 00:33:27.529 --> 00:33:30.049 if you anticipate power outages, which are common, 00:33:30.730 --> 00:33:33.700 make and freeze a large batch of coffee. Or even 00:33:33.700 --> 00:33:36.319 just water bottles or jugs of water. Why coffee? 00:33:36.500 --> 00:33:38.339 Well, not only will you have iced coffee ready 00:33:38.339 --> 00:33:41.299 to enjoy when the power is out. Right. But more 00:33:41.299 --> 00:33:44.000 importantly, these large frozen blocks of coffee 00:33:44.000 --> 00:33:47.519 or water act like giant ice packs. They can help 00:33:47.519 --> 00:33:49.740 keep your freezer and refrigerator cold for much 00:33:49.740 --> 00:33:52.400 longer, presuming perishable food for an extended 00:33:52.400 --> 00:33:54.980 period. Smart. Extend the life of the freezer 00:33:54.980 --> 00:33:57.880 contents? Exactly. And more broadly, think about 00:33:57.880 --> 00:34:01.400 financial preparedness. Gather important insurance 00:34:01.400 --> 00:34:04.000 policy numbers. Maybe have some cash on hand 00:34:04.000 --> 00:34:06.079 since ATMs and credit card machines might be 00:34:06.079 --> 00:34:08.880 down. Understand your deductibles. Communication 00:34:08.880 --> 00:34:11.099 plans, too. Definitely discuss communication 00:34:11.099 --> 00:34:13.800 plans with family members, especially if you 00:34:13.800 --> 00:34:16.440 might get separated or cell service goes down. 00:34:16.639 --> 00:34:18.639 Who do you contact out of state? How will that 00:34:18.639 --> 00:34:21.699 check in? And just stay calm. And remember, preparedness 00:34:21.699 --> 00:34:25.519 is also a mental game. Staying calm and informed, 00:34:26.000 --> 00:34:28.280 relying on credible sources rather than reacting 00:34:28.280 --> 00:34:30.659 emotionally to hype, that's your biggest asset. 00:34:31.059 --> 00:34:33.579 Having a plan and a well -stocked kit truly gives 00:34:33.579 --> 00:34:35.800 you peace of mind. This has been incredibly insightful. 00:34:35.900 --> 00:34:38.039 Thank you. It's clear the Atlantic is indeed 00:34:38.039 --> 00:34:40.539 entering a much more active phase, particularly 00:34:40.539 --> 00:34:43.280 with this significant African disturbance rolling 00:34:43.280 --> 00:34:46.380 out. And it's all aligning with what climatology 00:34:46.380 --> 00:34:49.199 tells us should happen this time of year. But 00:34:49.199 --> 00:34:51.940 the main takeaway here, I think, for all of us, 00:34:52.239 --> 00:34:55.280 is that reliable science -backed information 00:34:55.280 --> 00:34:58.360 is absolutely paramount. That's the key. It helps 00:34:58.360 --> 00:35:01.559 avoid unnecessary worry, and it helps us prepare 00:35:01.559 --> 00:35:04.019 effectively and intelligently. That's right. 00:35:04.159 --> 00:35:06.039 Continue to stay informed through those reliable 00:35:06.039 --> 00:35:08.199 channels, like the National Hurricane Center. 00:35:08.380 --> 00:35:11.360 Don't fall prey to the social media hype machines 00:35:11.360 --> 00:35:13.619 that are often designed just to grab attention, 00:35:13.699 --> 00:35:16.340 rather than provide accurate, actionable information. 00:35:16.460 --> 00:35:20.360 Be discerning. your sources, absolutely. And 00:35:20.360 --> 00:35:22.940 understand the limitations of those really long 00:35:22.940 --> 00:35:25.659 -range forecasts. Focus on the next few days 00:35:25.659 --> 00:35:28.820 to a week out for reliable details. And as we 00:35:28.820 --> 00:35:31.139 wrap up this deep dive for Meteorology Matters, 00:35:31.159 --> 00:35:33.420 I want to leave you, our listener, with a final 00:35:33.420 --> 00:35:35.940 provocative thought to consider as this season 00:35:35.940 --> 00:35:39.420 progresses. Okay. As we see this overall pattern 00:35:39.420 --> 00:35:41.559 in the Atlantic becoming more conducive for a 00:35:41.559 --> 00:35:44.119 Cape Verde season, which again is entirely usual 00:35:44.119 --> 00:35:47.179 for this time of year, and we witness these atmospheric 00:35:47.179 --> 00:35:49.699 and oceanic conditions aligning just right to 00:35:49.699 --> 00:35:53.099 make that happen, it truly makes you ponder how 00:35:53.099 --> 00:35:55.719 might we need to redefine what a typical hurricane 00:35:55.719 --> 00:35:58.539 season looks like in the years to come, especially 00:35:58.539 --> 00:36:01.199 as these larger global climate patterns continue 00:36:01.199 --> 00:36:04.719 to evolve and potentially shift baselines. That's 00:36:04.719 --> 00:36:07.320 a deep question. What does normal even mean anymore? 00:36:07.679 --> 00:36:10.519 Exactly. It's a question worth mulling over long 00:36:10.519 --> 00:36:12.840 after this discussion concludes. Something to 00:36:12.840 --> 00:36:15.599 think about as we watch things unfold. A fascinating 00:36:15.599 --> 00:36:18.289 thought indeed. For more updates and to keep 00:36:18.289 --> 00:36:20.949 following meteorologist Rob Jones, you can find 00:36:20.949 --> 00:36:23.949 him on Instagram. His handle is Meteorologist. 00:36:24.289 --> 00:36:27.510 Easy to remember. On TikTok, he's at TV Meteorologist. 00:36:27.829 --> 00:36:30.429 And on YouTube, just search for Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:36:30.809 --> 00:36:32.530 And on that YouTube channel, you'll also find 00:36:32.530 --> 00:36:34.849 the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist with 00:36:34.849 --> 00:36:37.469 our past deep dives. And we absolutely encourage 00:36:37.469 --> 00:36:39.889 you to do that. Stay plugged into reliable sources. 00:36:40.130 --> 00:36:41.969 The more informed you are, the better prepared 00:36:41.969 --> 00:36:44.690 you can be. And honestly, the more clarity you'll 00:36:44.690 --> 00:36:46.989 have during what can sometimes feel like an uncertain 00:36:46.989 --> 00:36:49.869 time. Absolutely. Thank you so much for tuning 00:36:49.869 --> 00:36:52.070 in to Meteorology Matters. We appreciate you 00:36:52.070 --> 00:36:54.150 joining us for this deep dive. Stay safe out 00:36:54.150 --> 00:36:54.349 there.