WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.339 Okay, let's unpack this. For those of you who 00:00:02.339 --> 00:00:04.219 regularly track climate shifts and infrastructure 00:00:04.219 --> 00:00:06.919 planning, you already know how critical long 00:00:06.919 --> 00:00:08.939 -range weather data is, but what happens when 00:00:08.939 --> 00:00:12.539 the most advanced tool we have, designed specifically 00:00:12.539 --> 00:00:15.060 to give us foresight into our rainfall future, 00:00:15.220 --> 00:00:17.379 I mean, a system crucial for protecting lives 00:00:17.379 --> 00:00:19.679 and property, what happens when that's suddenly 00:00:19.679 --> 00:00:23.140 put on ice? Welcome to the Meteorology Matters 00:00:23.140 --> 00:00:25.059 podcast. Today we're taking a deep dive into 00:00:25.059 --> 00:00:26.739 something that while it really touches every 00:00:26.739 --> 00:00:28.600 single community across the United States, how 00:00:28.600 --> 00:00:31.920 we predict extreme rainfall, especially now as 00:00:31.920 --> 00:00:34.880 our climate is, let's face it, rapidly shifting. 00:00:35.020 --> 00:00:36.840 We're talking about the fundamental science that 00:00:36.840 --> 00:00:39.700 lets us prepare for dangerous flood events, and 00:00:39.700 --> 00:00:42.060 importantly, a groundbreaking program that was 00:00:42.060 --> 00:00:44.280 really poised to revolutionize that preparation. 00:00:44.509 --> 00:00:46.850 Until it wasn't, we're going to explore what 00:00:46.850 --> 00:00:50.590 this vital project, known as Atlas 15, was meticulously 00:00:50.590 --> 00:00:53.250 engineered to achieve. And, maybe more importantly, 00:00:53.689 --> 00:00:55.810 precisely why its most crucial component, the 00:00:55.810 --> 00:00:57.609 part that looks squarely into our future rainfall 00:00:57.609 --> 00:01:00.270 risks, has been, well... inexplicably halted. 00:01:00.350 --> 00:01:02.369 You're going to hear why leading experts believe 00:01:02.369 --> 00:01:04.629 this decision could leave entire communities 00:01:04.629 --> 00:01:07.890 dangerously vulnerable, especially with the escalating 00:01:07.890 --> 00:01:09.849 number of severe floods we're already seeing. 00:01:10.290 --> 00:01:12.030 This isn't just about, you know, numbers on a 00:01:12.030 --> 00:01:13.829 chart. It's about safety. It's about resilience 00:01:13.829 --> 00:01:16.329 and frankly the staggering cost of inaction. 00:01:17.010 --> 00:01:19.709 So let's set the stage. What exactly is Atlas 00:01:19.709 --> 00:01:22.430 15 and why is it considered so incredibly important 00:01:22.430 --> 00:01:25.620 for the safety and the long -term planning of 00:01:25.620 --> 00:01:27.700 our communities. That's really the foundational 00:01:27.700 --> 00:01:30.840 question, isn't it? What's truly groundbreaking 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:34.099 about Atlas 15 is how it's designed. It's meant 00:01:34.099 --> 00:01:37.079 to be the definitive source, spatially continuous, 00:01:37.599 --> 00:01:41.180 for understanding precipitation frequency across 00:01:41.180 --> 00:01:43.840 the entire United States. Spatially continuous, 00:01:43.980 --> 00:01:46.700 so like... covering everywhere. Exactly. Think 00:01:46.700 --> 00:01:49.879 of it as this unparalleled national map. And 00:01:49.879 --> 00:01:51.640 it doesn't just show you how much rain might 00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:54.599 fall, but precisely the statistically expected 00:01:54.599 --> 00:01:58.019 amount for any given storm duration. So that 00:01:58.019 --> 00:02:00.579 could be anything from a quick five -minute downpour 00:02:00.579 --> 00:02:03.739 right up to, say, two months of continuous rain. 00:02:03.920 --> 00:02:06.560 60 days. Wow. Yeah, at any specific location 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:09.379 you can imagine. And it's not about vague possibilities. 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:12.300 It's about the precise probability of an event 00:02:12.300 --> 00:02:14.300 happening, like, you know, a 20 % chance chance 00:02:14.300 --> 00:02:16.400 that a certain rainfall amount will be exceeded 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:19.039 in any given year. OK, so it gives planners actual 00:02:19.039 --> 00:02:21.139 odds to work with. Precisely. And this represents 00:02:21.139 --> 00:02:23.780 a truly monumental upgrade from our current standard, 00:02:23.979 --> 00:02:26.460 which is called Atlas 14. Right, Atlas 14. I've 00:02:26.460 --> 00:02:28.159 had that mentioned a lot in engineering context. 00:02:28.409 --> 00:02:31.770 Oh, absolutely. For decades, Atlas 14 has been 00:02:31.770 --> 00:02:35.069 the steadfast bedrock. Civil engineers, regional 00:02:35.069 --> 00:02:37.870 planners, they've all relied on it. It guides 00:02:37.870 --> 00:02:40.870 the design of everything from essential drainage 00:02:40.870 --> 00:02:44.810 systems to massive city infrastructure projects. 00:02:45.449 --> 00:02:47.930 Its data really underpins countless critical 00:02:47.930 --> 00:02:50.789 decisions that affect our daily lives, our safety, 00:02:51.310 --> 00:02:53.469 the very foundation of our built environment. 00:02:54.050 --> 00:02:56.409 So for decades, that's been our guiding star 00:02:56.409 --> 00:02:59.210 for planning. But now with our climate changing 00:02:59.210 --> 00:03:02.569 so fast, it sounds like that star is Well, it's 00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:04.590 moving, isn't it? And we definitely need a new 00:03:04.590 --> 00:03:06.550 map. Absolutely. That's a great way to put it. 00:03:06.710 --> 00:03:08.849 The core insight here, the real sort of paradigm 00:03:08.849 --> 00:03:11.169 shift with Atlas 15, is its move away from what's 00:03:11.169 --> 00:03:13.169 called a stationary assumption. A stationary 00:03:13.169 --> 00:03:15.810 assumption, meaning? Meaning it assumes the climate 00:03:15.810 --> 00:03:18.509 is stable. That extreme precipitation events 00:03:18.509 --> 00:03:21.449 don't significantly change over time. For decades, 00:03:21.469 --> 00:03:23.789 we designed things as if the climate were static. 00:03:24.150 --> 00:03:26.710 Imagine building a house for, say, 20th century 00:03:26.710 --> 00:03:29.169 weather and just assuming it would never fundamentally 00:03:29.169 --> 00:03:31.509 change. Which we now know isn't true. Exactly. 00:03:32.110 --> 00:03:34.590 But Atlas 15, for the very first time at this 00:03:34.590 --> 00:03:37.090 national scale, would account for future temporal 00:03:37.090 --> 00:03:39.550 trends in rainfall all the way through the year 00:03:39.550 --> 00:03:43.009 2100. It embraces a non -stationary assumption. 00:03:43.129 --> 00:03:45.389 Non -stationary. OK, so it builds in the fact 00:03:45.389 --> 00:03:47.289 that things are changing. Precisely. Think of 00:03:47.289 --> 00:03:50.719 it like this. A stationary approach is like predicting 00:03:50.719 --> 00:03:53.639 future traffic based only on today's patterns. 00:03:53.719 --> 00:03:56.819 OK. A non -stationary approach, which Atlas 15 00:03:56.819 --> 00:03:59.759 embraces, means you're also factoring in that, 00:04:00.120 --> 00:04:01.719 say, the number of cars on the road is growing 00:04:01.719 --> 00:04:04.939 every single year. So you predict, based on future 00:04:04.939 --> 00:04:07.199 traffic, not just what's happened before. That 00:04:07.199 --> 00:04:08.759 makes sense. You have to account for the trend. 00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:11.680 Right. And that foresight is absolutely crucial 00:04:11.680 --> 00:04:13.699 for planning resilient infrastructure. And what 00:04:13.699 --> 00:04:16.439 we know is a rapidly changing climate. The science 00:04:16.439 --> 00:04:19.220 has advanced. equivocally acknowledge that past 00:04:19.220 --> 00:04:21.259 patterns are no longer a perfect predictor of 00:04:21.259 --> 00:04:23.420 future risks, especially with warming global 00:04:23.420 --> 00:04:25.620 temperatures? That's a huge leap in thinking, 00:04:25.639 --> 00:04:27.980 isn't it? It means we're no longer just predicting 00:04:27.980 --> 00:04:30.899 weather in the short term, but predicting the 00:04:30.899 --> 00:04:33.120 impact of climate change on weather, specifically 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:36.620 rainfall, decades out. And this wasn't just some 00:04:36.620 --> 00:04:39.379 like academic side project, right? This is a 00:04:39.379 --> 00:04:42.300 federally funded, broadly supported effort. Exactly 00:04:42.300 --> 00:04:44.680 right. It's important to note that the United 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:47.180 States Congress, specifically through the bipartisan 00:04:47.180 --> 00:04:50.019 infrastructure law, actually provided the National 00:04:50.019 --> 00:04:53.819 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, 00:04:53.980 --> 00:04:57.519 with direct funding to update Atlas 14 and, crucially, 00:04:58.160 --> 00:05:01.180 develop Atlas 15. NOAA's own Office of Water 00:05:01.180 --> 00:05:03.180 Prediction is developing it, with contributions 00:05:03.180 --> 00:05:05.779 from a really vast array of experts across government 00:05:05.779 --> 00:05:08.620 agencies, private industry, academia. This isn't 00:05:08.620 --> 00:05:11.759 some small, isolated project. It's a monumental 00:05:11.759 --> 00:05:13.319 collection. collaborative scientific endeavor 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:16.579 backed by federal law and broad expertise. So 00:05:16.579 --> 00:05:18.839 Alice 15 sounds like the essential tool we desperately 00:05:18.839 --> 00:05:21.319 need, especially for a future with more extreme 00:05:21.319 --> 00:05:26.410 weather and escalating flood risks. But it's 00:05:26.410 --> 00:05:28.769 not quite that simple, is it? Things got complicated. 00:05:28.870 --> 00:05:31.009 We understand Atlas 15 was intended to be released 00:05:31.009 --> 00:05:33.970 in two distinct volumes. Can you break those 00:05:33.970 --> 00:05:36.290 down for us? What do they entail? And where do 00:05:36.290 --> 00:05:38.990 things stand now? Absolutely. It was intelligently 00:05:38.990 --> 00:05:41.389 envisioned in two parts, volume one and volume 00:05:41.389 --> 00:05:45.069 two. Volume one provides a comprehensive snapshot 00:05:45.069 --> 00:05:48.629 of current precipitation estimates. It meticulously 00:05:48.629 --> 00:05:50.470 accounts for temporal changes and historical 00:05:50.470 --> 00:05:52.449 observations right up to the present day. When 00:05:52.449 --> 00:05:54.470 it's published, this will significantly update 00:05:54.470 --> 00:05:57.519 and supersede the existing Atlas 14 data. So 00:05:57.519 --> 00:05:59.220 it brings us up to date based on recent history. 00:05:59.500 --> 00:06:01.519 Okay, so Volume 1 is like the modern version 00:06:01.519 --> 00:06:03.740 of Atlas 14 using the latest historical data. 00:06:04.019 --> 00:06:05.920 Pretty much. In that part of the project, Volume 00:06:05.920 --> 00:06:08.519 1 is still on track. Preliminary estimates for 00:06:08.519 --> 00:06:10.259 the contiguous US are expected to be available 00:06:10.259 --> 00:06:12.819 for peer review this year, 2025, and then published 00:06:12.819 --> 00:06:15.319 estimates by 2026. So that alone is a valuable 00:06:15.319 --> 00:06:17.459 update for planners and engineers working with, 00:06:17.459 --> 00:06:19.600 you know, contemporary conditions. OK, that's 00:06:19.600 --> 00:06:21.720 good news at least. But then there's volume two. 00:06:21.779 --> 00:06:24.180 Right. And here's where the true foresight and, 00:06:24.180 --> 00:06:26.439 well, the unexpected twist in this story comes 00:06:26.439 --> 00:06:29.500 in. Volume two is where the real forward looking 00:06:29.500 --> 00:06:32.800 capability resides. This volume was ingeniously 00:06:32.800 --> 00:06:35.279 designed to provide model based precipitation 00:06:35.279 --> 00:06:37.800 frequency estimates projected directly into the 00:06:37.800 --> 00:06:39.980 future. Okay, so that's the non -stationary part 00:06:39.980 --> 00:06:43.000 in action. Exactly. It takes the robust current 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:45.420 estimates from Volume 1 and then applies these 00:06:45.420 --> 00:06:48.120 sophisticated adjustment factors based on downscaled 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:50.699 climate model data. Essentially, it was built 00:06:50.699 --> 00:06:54.259 to show us, in granular, actionable detail, how 00:06:54.259 --> 00:06:56.779 rainfall risks, the frequency, the intensity 00:06:56.779 --> 00:06:59.139 of storms, how those will evolve in a warming 00:06:59.139 --> 00:07:01.819 world, peering decades into the future to help 00:07:01.819 --> 00:07:04.740 communities not just react but proactively prepare. 00:07:05.000 --> 00:07:06.959 And this Volume 2, the one that tells us about 00:07:06.959 --> 00:07:09.180 future risks, that's the part that has been stopped. 00:07:09.399 --> 00:07:11.560 We've heard conflicting reports about why. What 00:07:11.560 --> 00:07:13.980 exactly happened to this crucial component? That's 00:07:13.980 --> 00:07:17.160 correct. Work on volume two, specifically Atlas 00:07:17.160 --> 00:07:20.779 15's climate projections, has been put on indefinite 00:07:20.779 --> 00:07:23.939 hold for months now. According to reports, this 00:07:23.939 --> 00:07:26.180 decision came after a review of volume two was 00:07:26.180 --> 00:07:28.939 ordered this spring by Commerce Secretary Howard 00:07:28.939 --> 00:07:31.379 Litnick, who is an official appointed by the 00:07:31.379 --> 00:07:33.819 Donald Trump administration. OK, so a review 00:07:33.819 --> 00:07:36.519 was ordered by the Commerce Secretary. What was 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:39.199 the official reason given? Well, a spokeswoman 00:07:39.199 --> 00:07:41.079 for the National Weather Service speaking on 00:07:41.079 --> 00:07:43.959 behalf of NOAA confirmed the delay. The statement 00:07:43.959 --> 00:07:46.540 was that the review is about making sure research 00:07:46.540 --> 00:07:48.759 dollars and technology investments are being 00:07:48.759 --> 00:07:51.560 put to the very best use for the American people. 00:07:52.620 --> 00:07:55.379 Maximizing resources. But you mentioned conflicting 00:07:55.379 --> 00:07:58.240 reports. Yes, because former federal officials 00:07:58.240 --> 00:08:00.420 who were intimately familiar with the project, 00:08:00.500 --> 00:08:02.680 they offer a different perspective. Ed Clark, 00:08:02.819 --> 00:08:04.899 for instance, he was the director of NOAA's National 00:08:04.899 --> 00:08:07.860 Water Center until recently. He noted that the 00:08:07.860 --> 00:08:10.100 research for Volume 2 was actually nearly complete 00:08:10.100 --> 00:08:12.899 before he retired in April. Nearly complete that's 00:08:12.899 --> 00:08:15.519 what he stated and he explicitly emphasized that 00:08:15.519 --> 00:08:18.639 the remaining work wasn't a large price tag Implying 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:21.420 that cost wasn't really the primary barrier or 00:08:21.420 --> 00:08:23.480 perhaps shouldn't have been so we have these 00:08:23.480 --> 00:08:26.339 two narratives an official statement about maximizing 00:08:26.339 --> 00:08:28.699 resource use ensuring taxpayer money is well 00:08:28.699 --> 00:08:31.860 spent and on the other hand Experts like Clark 00:08:31.860 --> 00:08:34.879 saying the work was almost done wasn't that expensive 00:08:34.879 --> 00:08:38.230 and is incredibly vital From your perspective, 00:08:38.590 --> 00:08:40.830 what could be the potential arguments for initiating 00:08:40.830 --> 00:08:43.330 such a review, even if the research was nearing 00:08:43.330 --> 00:08:46.090 completion? And how do experts weigh those against 00:08:46.090 --> 00:08:47.889 the warnings we're hearing about losing this 00:08:47.889 --> 00:08:50.299 critical data? That's a really crucial point 00:08:50.299 --> 00:08:52.919 of contention. You could argue from a purely 00:08:52.919 --> 00:08:55.580 administrative standpoint that any new leadership 00:08:55.580 --> 00:08:57.860 or even existing leadership under a particular 00:08:57.860 --> 00:09:01.320 administration might want to review ongoing projects, 00:09:01.320 --> 00:09:03.860 you know, to ensure alignment with their priorities, 00:09:04.059 --> 00:09:06.559 perhaps scrutinize the methodology, maybe evaluate 00:09:06.559 --> 00:09:08.940 the underlying climate models for robustness, 00:09:09.500 --> 00:09:12.000 even if the scientists involved are confident. 00:09:12.639 --> 00:09:14.700 Due diligence, they might call it. Okay, so a 00:09:14.700 --> 00:09:17.379 standard procedural review, potentially. Potentially. 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:20.379 However, experts like Clark are weighing that 00:09:20.379 --> 00:09:23.460 against the, frankly, immense public good this 00:09:23.460 --> 00:09:26.220 data promises. They argue that halting a nearly 00:09:26.220 --> 00:09:29.120 complete project, one that's described as relatively 00:09:29.120 --> 00:09:32.120 inexpensive at this stage and one with such profound 00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:34.940 implications for public safety and fiscal responsibility, 00:09:35.860 --> 00:09:37.679 well, it simply doesn't seem to align with the 00:09:37.679 --> 00:09:40.740 idea of best use of resources. Right. The urgency 00:09:40.740 --> 00:09:42.990 seems to be a major factor for them. Absolutely. 00:09:43.330 --> 00:09:45.269 The urgency of climate change impacts, which 00:09:45.269 --> 00:09:48.070 we're seeing daily, makes any delay and crucial 00:09:48.070 --> 00:09:50.909 foresight deeply concerning. Regardless of the 00:09:50.909 --> 00:09:53.389 stated intentions behind the review, the question 00:09:53.389 --> 00:09:55.909 really becomes whether a review is genuinely 00:09:55.909 --> 00:09:58.990 about optimizing things or if it inadvertently 00:09:58.990 --> 00:10:01.870 or some might argue intentionally hampers progress 00:10:01.870 --> 00:10:03.870 on climate sensitive projects like this one. 00:10:03.970 --> 00:10:05.629 That definitely makes the situation even more 00:10:05.629 --> 00:10:08.590 perplexing. So, OK, let's get down to brass tacks 00:10:08.590 --> 00:10:11.230 here. What is this indefinite suspension of volume 00:10:11.230 --> 00:10:13.909 two? mean for us, for the general public? If 00:10:13.909 --> 00:10:16.750 we lose this crucial future projection, what's 00:10:16.750 --> 00:10:19.570 the real tangible impact on our safety, our communities, 00:10:19.649 --> 00:10:22.549 and ultimately our wallets? This raises an absolutely 00:10:22.549 --> 00:10:26.330 vital question. And the answer is quite stark 00:10:26.330 --> 00:10:28.970 and immediate. We are not talking about hypothetical 00:10:28.970 --> 00:10:32.210 future problems, not at all. These are current 00:10:32.210 --> 00:10:34.429 escalating threats that impact communities right 00:10:34.429 --> 00:10:37.610 now. The toll of intensifying storms is already 00:10:37.610 --> 00:10:40.090 painfully apparent across the country. Just look 00:10:40.090 --> 00:10:42.889 at the first 15 days of July this year. The National 00:10:42.889 --> 00:10:45.009 Weather Service reported double the usual number 00:10:45.009 --> 00:10:46.809 of flash floods. Double. That's significant. 00:10:46.909 --> 00:10:49.509 It's huge. And this wasn't just a statistic. 00:10:49.809 --> 00:10:52.389 It included tragic delusions, like in central 00:10:52.389 --> 00:10:56.070 Texas, that claimed over 130 lives. Heavy rains 00:10:56.070 --> 00:10:58.230 in the Northeast drowned two people in New Jersey 00:10:58.230 --> 00:11:00.929 severely submerged New York's subway stations, 00:11:01.649 --> 00:11:04.289 paralyzing parts of the city. These aren't isolated 00:11:04.399 --> 00:11:07.419 anymore, they're becoming horrifyingly more frequent, 00:11:07.480 --> 00:11:09.639 more intense. And without the forward -looking 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:12.759 data that Atlas 15 Volume 2 promised, communities 00:11:12.759 --> 00:11:15.720 are, frankly, tragically struggling to keep up. 00:11:15.940 --> 00:11:17.500 It feels like we're constantly reacting, not 00:11:17.500 --> 00:11:19.799 preparing. Exactly. And consider this alarming 00:11:19.799 --> 00:11:22.460 reality. Communities across the country are still 00:11:22.460 --> 00:11:25.240 relying on rainfall data that is decades old 00:11:25.240 --> 00:11:27.059 to determine their flood risks and design their 00:11:27.059 --> 00:11:30.740 infrastructure. Decades. Decades old. In this 00:11:30.740 --> 00:11:33.590 rapidly changing climate. Yes. Imagine trying 00:11:33.590 --> 00:11:36.049 to navigate a rapidly changing, unpredictable 00:11:36.049 --> 00:11:38.789 road ahead by looking only in your rearview mirror. 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:41.120 That's essentially what we're doing without these 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:44.440 future projections. Without Atlas 15 Volume 2, 00:11:44.500 --> 00:11:47.179 there will be no single authoritative national 00:11:47.179 --> 00:11:50.159 data set to show how rainfall and flood threats 00:11:50.159 --> 00:11:52.740 will undeniably increase as the world warms. 00:11:53.120 --> 00:11:56.340 This creates a dangerous and, frankly, expanding 00:11:56.340 --> 00:11:59.080 knowledge gap for absolutely crucial long -term 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:02.000 planning. It leaves us blindsided by events that 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:04.500 we could and really should anticipate. And even 00:12:04.500 --> 00:12:07.059 Volume 1, the updated historical data, might 00:12:07.059 --> 00:12:09.610 not be enough. Well, Jeremy Porter, who leads 00:12:09.610 --> 00:12:11.389 climate implications research at the First Street 00:12:11.389 --> 00:12:13.490 Foundation, he highlights that critical point. 00:12:13.710 --> 00:12:15.750 Even volume one, which uses historical data, 00:12:15.889 --> 00:12:18.190 he says, will be out of date very quickly because 00:12:18.190 --> 00:12:20.490 rising global temperatures are just so profoundly 00:12:20.490 --> 00:12:22.649 and rapidly altering precipitation patterns. 00:12:22.850 --> 00:12:24.909 Right. The underlying system's changing too fast. 00:12:25.080 --> 00:12:27.580 Exactly. The physics are clear. They're undeniable. 00:12:28.019 --> 00:12:30.559 A warmer atmosphere simply holds more moisture 00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:33.740 that provides significantly more fuel for extreme 00:12:33.740 --> 00:12:37.039 storms. His team's analysis found that a staggering 00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:40.120 20 percent of the U .S. has already seen a fourfold 00:12:40.120 --> 00:12:42.379 increase in the likelihood of what used to be 00:12:42.379 --> 00:12:44.740 considered a one in 100 year rainfall event. 00:12:44.940 --> 00:12:47.059 A fourfold increase for one fifth of the country 00:12:47.059 --> 00:12:49.419 already. Already. And these once rare events 00:12:49.419 --> 00:12:51.600 are now expected to become even more common. 00:12:52.059 --> 00:12:53.799 Turning what we thought of as once in a lifetime 00:12:53.799 --> 00:12:56.320 floods in to much more frequent, devastating 00:12:56.320 --> 00:12:58.700 occurrences. So it's not just about bigger storms. 00:12:58.820 --> 00:13:01.080 It's like our whole definition of extreme is 00:13:01.080 --> 00:13:03.580 being rapidly rewritten, and our current plans 00:13:03.580 --> 00:13:05.840 just aren't accounting for it. What's the practical 00:13:05.840 --> 00:13:08.419 implication of that for, say, a city engineer 00:13:08.419 --> 00:13:11.120 trying to design a bridge or a culvert? Precisely. 00:13:11.259 --> 00:13:13.200 It's a moving target, and they're aiming based 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:16.529 on old information. Ed Clark, the former NOAA 00:13:16.529 --> 00:13:19.210 official we mentioned, he explicitly stated that 00:13:19.210 --> 00:13:22.429 delaying or cancelling Atlas 15's climate injections 00:13:22.429 --> 00:13:25.070 could leave communities dangerously unprepared 00:13:25.070 --> 00:13:27.730 for these shifting flood risks. He stressed that 00:13:27.730 --> 00:13:29.970 it makes it significantly harder, maybe even 00:13:29.970 --> 00:13:32.529 impossible sometimes, for engineers to properly 00:13:32.529 --> 00:13:35.830 design buildings, bridges, road culverts, all 00:13:35.830 --> 00:13:38.570 sorts of vital projects, to design them to cope 00:13:38.570 --> 00:13:40.950 with future rainfall extremes that are no longer 00:13:40.950 --> 00:13:44.470 theoretical, but, uh... And he linked it to cost 00:13:44.470 --> 00:13:47.289 savings, didn't he? He did. His summation was 00:13:47.289 --> 00:13:49.889 powerful, I thought. He said, designing our infrastructure 00:13:49.889 --> 00:13:52.350 for resilience is fundamentally a cost -saving 00:13:52.350 --> 00:13:54.610 measure. When we don't design for these future 00:13:54.610 --> 00:13:56.669 conditions, we are essentially guaranteeing that 00:13:56.669 --> 00:13:59.289 we'll have to pay far more later, often repeatedly. 00:13:59.690 --> 00:14:02.450 To repair or replace severely damaged infrastructure, 00:14:02.830 --> 00:14:05.690 it drains taxpayer dollars and massively disrupts 00:14:05.690 --> 00:14:07.330 lives. That really puts it in perspective. It's 00:14:07.330 --> 00:14:09.129 not just about the initial cost, but the long 00:14:09.129 --> 00:14:11.950 -term cost of not preparing. Exactly. And Chad 00:14:11.950 --> 00:14:13.929 Brigennis, he's the executive director of the 00:14:13.929 --> 00:14:16.789 Association of State Floodplain Managers. He 00:14:16.789 --> 00:14:19.730 emphasizes this point, especially for you, the 00:14:19.730 --> 00:14:23.169 taxpayer. He points out that city and state regulations 00:14:23.169 --> 00:14:25.889 and the civil engineers designing critical infrastructure, 00:14:26.169 --> 00:14:28.529 they aren't just encouraged. They're often required 00:14:28.529 --> 00:14:31.210 to consult NOAA's data. And these projects, you 00:14:31.210 --> 00:14:33.809 know, bridges, dams, drainage systems, they're 00:14:33.809 --> 00:14:36.929 meant to last 50 years, maybe even more. 50 years 00:14:36.929 --> 00:14:39.679 or more built on potentially outdated data. That's 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:42.720 the risk. So without these future projections, 00:14:43.019 --> 00:14:49.980 Brigidus asks us to think about it. infrastructure 00:14:49.980 --> 00:14:52.779 that simply wasn't designed for the weather conditions 00:14:52.779 --> 00:14:55.080 climate change is bringing. The cycle of damage 00:14:55.080 --> 00:14:57.600 and repair. Precisely. His conclusion is crystal 00:14:57.600 --> 00:14:59.879 clear. If we have this future information we 00:14:59.879 --> 00:15:01.620 won't have to continue to be in the cycle of 00:15:01.620 --> 00:15:04.379 damage, repair, replace, damage again. This isn't 00:15:04.379 --> 00:15:06.600 just about scientific accuracy. It's about fundamental 00:15:06.600 --> 00:15:09.100 fiscal responsibility and the basic well -being 00:15:09.100 --> 00:15:12.250 of every American community. That's a very stark 00:15:12.250 --> 00:15:15.110 reminder of the financial and human cost. And 00:15:15.110 --> 00:15:17.429 wasn't there even concrete evidence of this impact 00:15:17.429 --> 00:15:20.230 from areas that did get a glimpse of this forward 00:15:20.230 --> 00:15:23.009 looking data? Right. A pilot program. There was, 00:15:23.230 --> 00:15:26.730 yes. Which makes the suspension even more frustrating 00:15:26.730 --> 00:15:29.450 for many observers. A pilot version of Atlas 00:15:29.450 --> 00:15:32.389 15 was done for Montana, and it did include future 00:15:32.389 --> 00:15:34.710 projections. It showed that rainfall rates for 00:15:34.710 --> 00:15:36.830 what were once considered one in a hundred year 00:15:36.830 --> 00:15:39.230 events could increase significantly on the current 00:15:39.230 --> 00:15:42.350 warming path. This is an abstract theory. It's 00:15:42.350 --> 00:15:44.929 tangible data for a specific region. And what 00:15:44.929 --> 00:15:48.169 about other vulnerable areas? Well, flood -prone 00:15:48.169 --> 00:15:50.590 regions like the Northeast and Appalachia, they 00:15:50.590 --> 00:15:53.289 are expected to experience even greater increases 00:15:53.289 --> 00:15:56.360 in extreme rainfall. But without Volume 2 being 00:15:56.360 --> 00:15:58.659 completed and released, those states won't know 00:15:58.659 --> 00:16:01.159 the exact extent of these critical changes. They're 00:16:01.159 --> 00:16:03.779 left planning, essentially, flying blind. Planning 00:16:03.779 --> 00:16:06.600 for a past climate that, quite simply, no longer 00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:08.679 exists. It's like knowing there's a storm coming, 00:16:08.860 --> 00:16:10.980 but having no idea if it's just a drizzle or 00:16:10.980 --> 00:16:13.620 a Category 5 hurricane. This is a truly sobering 00:16:13.620 --> 00:16:15.919 picture. Okay, let's shift gears slightly for 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:18.370 a moment, though it's all connected. Let's zoom 00:16:18.370 --> 00:16:19.970 in on the cutting -edge science that was being 00:16:19.970 --> 00:16:23.029 developed for Volume 2. What exactly are we talking 00:16:23.029 --> 00:16:25.690 about when we discuss tools like iMURG and these 00:16:25.690 --> 00:16:27.990 hybrid models? And what capability are we actually 00:16:27.990 --> 00:16:31.090 missing out on by not having Volume 2 move forward? 00:16:31.259 --> 00:16:33.279 Absolutely. It's important to understand the 00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:35.860 sophistication here. The research we're discussing, 00:16:35.940 --> 00:16:38.100 leveraging something kind of integrated multi 00:16:38.100 --> 00:16:40.320 -satellite retrievals for global precipitation 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:43.159 measurement. IMERG. IMERG, exactly. It's precisely 00:16:43.159 --> 00:16:45.080 the kind of advanced science that would have 00:16:45.080 --> 00:16:49.360 fed directly into Atlas 15 Volume 2. IMERG is 00:16:49.360 --> 00:16:52.039 really a next -generation satellite -based precipitation 00:16:52.039 --> 00:16:54.840 product. It's incredibly sophisticated. It doesn't 00:16:54.840 --> 00:16:57.460 just collect data from one satellite, but combines 00:16:57.460 --> 00:17:00.299 data from various satellite sources and then 00:17:00.299 --> 00:17:02.590 crucially it rigorously calibrates that data 00:17:02.590 --> 00:17:05.289 with extensive global ground observations rain 00:17:05.289 --> 00:17:08.950 gauges on the ground. This multi -source, validated 00:17:08.950 --> 00:17:11.509 approach gives it an incredibly high degree of 00:17:11.509 --> 00:17:14.170 accuracy and reliability for precipitation estimates, 00:17:14.710 --> 00:17:17.069 especially across vast regions where ground data 00:17:17.069 --> 00:17:19.349 might be sparse. Okay, so it's pointing together 00:17:19.349 --> 00:17:22.029 the best of space -based and ground -based data? 00:17:22.210 --> 00:17:24.500 In essence, yes. And the study we're looking 00:17:24.500 --> 00:17:28.140 at introduces a novel hybrid PDF model for estimating 00:17:28.140 --> 00:17:30.519 what are called depth duration frequency curves, 00:17:30.819 --> 00:17:34.259 DDF curves, using this IMERG data. DDF curves. 00:17:34.380 --> 00:17:36.279 Remind us what those are again. Right. DDF curves 00:17:36.279 --> 00:17:39.079 are basically the precision blueprints for engineers 00:17:39.079 --> 00:17:41.619 and hydrologists. They tell you exactly how much 00:17:41.619 --> 00:17:45.079 rain depth is expected over a given time duration, 00:17:45.140 --> 00:17:49.220 say, one hour or 24 hours. And critically, how 00:17:49.220 --> 00:17:51.500 often frequency that kind of event is likely 00:17:51.500 --> 00:17:54.299 to occur maybe once every 10 years, or once every 00:17:54.299 --> 00:17:57.700 100 years, or even more rarely. This data is 00:17:57.700 --> 00:17:59.779 the absolute bedrock for designing everything 00:17:59.779 --> 00:18:02.259 from storm drains and culverts to bridges and 00:18:02.259 --> 00:18:04.920 skyscrapers, ensuring they can handle the expected 00:18:04.920 --> 00:18:07.480 rainfall without failing. Got it. So these DDF 00:18:07.480 --> 00:18:09.579 curves are the vital numbers engineers need. 00:18:09.819 --> 00:18:12.019 How does this new hybrid model improve on how 00:18:12.019 --> 00:18:14.019 we get those numbers? Well, the true brilliance 00:18:14.019 --> 00:18:16.220 of this hybrid model isn't just about using more 00:18:16.220 --> 00:18:19.180 data, like from IMERG, but its inherent intelligence, 00:18:19.180 --> 00:18:21.799 if you will. This model integrates no less than 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:23.720 four four different probability distribution 00:18:23.720 --> 00:18:26.660 functions. Okay, probability distribution functions. 00:18:26.859 --> 00:18:28.779 Yeah. Those are the math formulas. Exactly. They're 00:18:28.779 --> 00:18:31.559 just the mathematical formulas or models that 00:18:31.559 --> 00:18:34.880 help us predict the likelihood of different rainfall 00:18:34.880 --> 00:18:37.880 amounts happening. The probability of getting 00:18:37.880 --> 00:18:40.299 two inches in an hour versus five inches, for 00:18:40.299 --> 00:18:43.799 example. Now, why is using four of them so important? 00:18:44.029 --> 00:18:46.930 Because no single mathematical model works perfectly 00:18:46.930 --> 00:18:50.289 across all climate zones. A formula that's great 00:18:50.289 --> 00:18:53.710 for, say, the rainy Pacific Northwest might not 00:18:53.710 --> 00:18:56.450 be the best for the arid southwest. Ah, so different 00:18:56.450 --> 00:18:58.730 climates need different math. Essentially, yes. 00:18:59.069 --> 00:19:01.509 What this hybrid approach does is it dynamically 00:19:01.509 --> 00:19:04.250 adjusts its weights. How much importance it gives 00:19:04.250 --> 00:19:06.529 to each of those four individual mathematical 00:19:06.529 --> 00:19:09.369 models based on the specific local climate conditions. 00:19:09.849 --> 00:19:12.390 This optimizes the rainfall estimates for both 00:19:12.390 --> 00:19:15.299 wet regions and dry regions, making the predictions 00:19:15.299 --> 00:19:18.099 much more accurate and precisely tailored to 00:19:18.099 --> 00:19:20.740 specific geographies, that's crucial for real 00:19:20.740 --> 00:19:22.900 world applications. So it adapts itself depending 00:19:22.900 --> 00:19:25.619 on where you're looking. Precisely. And the study 00:19:25.619 --> 00:19:28.240 rigorously showed that the DDF estimates derived 00:19:28.240 --> 00:19:30.880 from IMERG using this hybrid model aligned very 00:19:30.880 --> 00:19:33.720 strongly with the existing Atlas 14 data, where 00:19:33.720 --> 00:19:37.099 we have good ground truth from over 2 ,300 stations 00:19:37.099 --> 00:19:40.569 across the contiguous US. This validation isn't 00:19:40.569 --> 00:19:43.349 just a detail. It powerfully demonstrates its 00:19:43.349 --> 00:19:46.089 robust capability for continental scale extreme 00:19:46.089 --> 00:19:49.009 precipitation analysis. It's not just a theoretical 00:19:49.009 --> 00:19:51.710 concept. It's a proven, high -performing tool 00:19:51.710 --> 00:19:54.150 ready for prime time. That sounds like a significant 00:19:54.150 --> 00:19:56.869 step forward in accuracy. It is. A key innovation 00:19:56.869 --> 00:19:59.369 here is that this hybrid model gives us a much 00:19:59.369 --> 00:20:01.809 better way to understand how precipitation extremes 00:20:01.809 --> 00:20:05.069 actually vary with climate zone and wetness conditions. 00:20:05.390 --> 00:20:07.630 That's a major improvement over relying on just 00:20:07.630 --> 00:20:11.059 one single model of for everywhere. And its adaptability 00:20:11.059 --> 00:20:13.240 to climate change projections is absolutely key. 00:20:13.480 --> 00:20:15.259 Remember, those projections predict not only 00:20:15.259 --> 00:20:17.539 increases in extreme precipitation, but also 00:20:17.539 --> 00:20:19.660 significant shifts in patterns. Right. Things 00:20:19.660 --> 00:20:21.839 might get wetter overall in some places, but 00:20:21.839 --> 00:20:24.119 maybe the rain falls in shorter, more intense 00:20:24.119 --> 00:20:26.930 bursts, for example. Exactly. So, for instance, 00:20:27.150 --> 00:20:29.089 in high precipitation areas, like the eastern 00:20:29.089 --> 00:20:31.470 US, where heavy, prolonged rains are common, 00:20:31.849 --> 00:20:34.470 the model might determine an optimal equal weighting 00:20:34.470 --> 00:20:36.690 for its components to capture those events accurately. 00:20:37.230 --> 00:20:40.450 But then, in drier, western areas, where maybe 00:20:40.450 --> 00:20:42.589 flashier, shorter -duration intense events are 00:20:42.589 --> 00:20:46.240 more critical, it intelligently adapts. It might 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:48.319 give more weight to the mathematical models better 00:20:48.319 --> 00:20:51.420 suited for those specific conditions. This capability 00:20:51.420 --> 00:20:54.779 means significantly more accurate extreme precipitation 00:20:54.779 --> 00:20:57.599 forecasting tailored for very different regional 00:20:57.599 --> 00:21:00.160 needs across the country. That kind of regional 00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:02.839 precision sounds incredibly valuable. It moves 00:21:02.839 --> 00:21:04.880 away from a one -size -fits -all approach to 00:21:04.880 --> 00:21:07.019 something that genuinely understands the nuances 00:21:07.019 --> 00:21:09.940 of different climates. Were there any limitations 00:21:09.940 --> 00:21:12.220 or biases identified? I mean, it's pretty common 00:21:12.220 --> 00:21:14.869 in complex modeling like this, right? Absolutely, 00:21:15.049 --> 00:21:17.769 and it's important to acknowledge them. Understanding 00:21:17.769 --> 00:21:20.829 limitations is just part of robust science. The 00:21:20.829 --> 00:21:23.430 research did identify some biases, which is normal 00:21:23.430 --> 00:21:27.170 and expected. For example, IMERG tends to slightly 00:21:27.170 --> 00:21:29.950 underestimate rainfall in some of the drier western 00:21:29.950 --> 00:21:32.829 regions, particularly for shorter duration events, 00:21:32.950 --> 00:21:35.849 and it might slightly overestimate in some wetter 00:21:35.849 --> 00:21:38.130 eastern areas, especially for longer durations. 00:21:38.230 --> 00:21:41.069 Okay, so there are known tendencies. Yes, but 00:21:41.069 --> 00:21:43.710 these are well understood biases. The crucial 00:21:43.710 --> 00:21:46.049 point is that because they are understood, they 00:21:46.049 --> 00:21:48.569 can be accounted for. They can be further refined 00:21:48.569 --> 00:21:51.289 through ongoing research and calibration. These 00:21:51.289 --> 00:21:53.730 aren't fundamental flaws that undermine the model's 00:21:53.730 --> 00:21:56.049 overall utility. They're known quantities that 00:21:56.049 --> 00:21:58.089 engineers and planners are actually trained to 00:21:58.089 --> 00:22:00.450 work with. Knowing these biases allows them to 00:22:00.450 --> 00:22:02.690 apply precise adjustment factors in their designs, 00:22:03.150 --> 00:22:05.650 ensuring real -world accuracy. So the biases 00:22:05.650 --> 00:22:08.839 are known and manageable. Correct. And this kind 00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:11.640 of precise, regionally adapted predictive analytics 00:22:11.640 --> 00:22:15.059 is truly essential for developing effective climate 00:22:15.059 --> 00:22:18.200 adaptation strategies. It directly supports better 00:22:18.200 --> 00:22:20.900 flood risk management. It leads to improved and 00:22:20.900 --> 00:22:23.519 more resilient infrastructure planning. It even 00:22:23.519 --> 00:22:26.059 enables more effective ecosystem conservation 00:22:26.059 --> 00:22:28.819 in areas most vulnerable to climate -induced 00:22:28.819 --> 00:22:31.799 extreme weather events. Plus, the ability to 00:22:31.799 --> 00:22:33.900 seamlessly integrate this kind of model with 00:22:33.900 --> 00:22:36.079 machine learning techniques further amplifies 00:22:36.079 --> 00:22:38.640 its potential. It allows for continuous learning 00:22:38.640 --> 00:22:40.839 and improvement in forecasting accuracy over 00:22:40.839 --> 00:22:42.960 time. It's like a living tool that learns and 00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:45.519 gets better. It certainly sounds like the science 00:22:45.519 --> 00:22:48.519 is not only ready, but really capable of providing 00:22:48.519 --> 00:22:50.839 the nuanced, forward -looking information our 00:22:50.839 --> 00:22:52.839 communities desperately need to face a changing 00:22:52.839 --> 00:22:55.200 climate. It seems, then, that the suspension 00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:59.319 of Volume 2 could really lead us to inadvertently 00:22:59.319 --> 00:23:01.420 or perhaps deliberately ignore these critical 00:23:01.420 --> 00:23:03.420 insights into our changing climate, potentially 00:23:03.420 --> 00:23:05.140 leaving communities much more vulnerable. That's 00:23:05.140 --> 00:23:07.980 a profound implication. It is. It essentially 00:23:07.980 --> 00:23:10.359 means we might be consciously choosing to operate 00:23:10.359 --> 00:23:13.000 with an incomplete picture of our future risks, 00:23:13.039 --> 00:23:15.299 despite having the scientific capability right 00:23:15.299 --> 00:23:18.220 here, right now, to paint a much clearer one. 00:23:18.799 --> 00:23:21.720 So, to try and tie all this together, we've explored 00:23:21.720 --> 00:23:24.299 ALICE -15, its immense promise to help us foresee 00:23:24.299 --> 00:23:27.440 future rainfall extremes, and the really groundbreaking 00:23:27.440 --> 00:23:29.720 science, like IMERG and the hybrid models, that 00:23:29.720 --> 00:23:32.359 was driving it forward. Yet, the critical volume 00:23:32.359 --> 00:23:34.960 2, The part designed specifically to give us 00:23:34.960 --> 00:23:38.259 those absolutely vital future projections that's 00:23:38.259 --> 00:23:41.039 been indefinitely suspended following a review 00:23:41.039 --> 00:23:43.279 ordered by officials in the Donald Trump administration. 00:23:43.619 --> 00:23:45.420 And as we've heard, this isn't just about scientific 00:23:45.420 --> 00:23:48.339 data, as important as that is. It seems deeply 00:23:48.339 --> 00:23:50.480 connected to the safety of our homes, the long 00:23:50.480 --> 00:23:52.380 -term resilience of our roads, bridges, cities, 00:23:52.559 --> 00:23:54.660 our infrastructure, and of course the massive 00:23:54.660 --> 00:23:57.160 escalating costs we continue to face from ever 00:23:57.160 --> 00:23:58.799 -increasing flood events across the country. 00:23:58.890 --> 00:24:01.450 That's right. Without these authoritative future 00:24:01.450 --> 00:24:03.730 projections, communities are really left trying 00:24:03.730 --> 00:24:06.269 to build and plan with an incomplete picture. 00:24:06.589 --> 00:24:09.029 They're relying on outdated assumptions in a 00:24:09.029 --> 00:24:11.250 world that is fundamentally and rapidly changing 00:24:11.250 --> 00:24:13.730 around them. The consequences are tangible. We 00:24:13.730 --> 00:24:16.670 see them in the news. More frequent and devastating 00:24:16.670 --> 00:24:19.630 floods, higher repair costs for taxpayers, and 00:24:19.630 --> 00:24:22.349 most tragically, more lives put needlessly at 00:24:22.349 --> 00:24:25.009 risk. The ability to predict these future conditions 00:24:25.009 --> 00:24:27.710 using advanced tools like the IMERG hybrid model. 00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:30.460 It sounds less like an academic exercise and 00:24:30.460 --> 00:24:32.740 more like, as you said, a taxpayer -saving, even 00:24:32.740 --> 00:24:35.160 life -saving imperative. Many experts would certainly 00:24:35.160 --> 00:24:37.900 argue that. So the decision to halt this work, 00:24:38.240 --> 00:24:41.400 to pause this progress, it means that we as a 00:24:41.400 --> 00:24:44.380 nation are potentially less informed and consequently 00:24:44.380 --> 00:24:47.619 far more vulnerable to the accelerating impacts 00:24:47.619 --> 00:24:50.039 of climate change that we know are happening. 00:24:50.319 --> 00:24:52.680 As you or listeners go about your day, maybe 00:24:52.680 --> 00:24:54.680 consider the floods we've already seen just this 00:24:54.680 --> 00:24:57.400 July alone. Think about the mounting costs of 00:24:57.400 --> 00:25:01.200 rebuilding both financially and emotionally for 00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:04.000 the communities affected. Now just imagine for 00:25:04.000 --> 00:25:05.640 a moment if our communities actually had that 00:25:05.640 --> 00:25:08.019 authoritative forward -looking data that Atlas 00:25:08.019 --> 00:25:11.099 15 Volume 2 promised. What fundamental changes 00:25:11.099 --> 00:25:13.339 would we make? In our infrastructure, our zoning 00:25:13.339 --> 00:25:15.839 laws, our emergency preparedness plans, what 00:25:15.839 --> 00:25:18.099 devastating disasters could we potentially avert 00:25:18.099 --> 00:25:20.559 or at least mitigate significantly? That's something 00:25:20.559 --> 00:25:22.519 truly worth mulling over. Thank you for joining 00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:24.640 us on this critical discussion for the Meteorology 00:25:24.640 --> 00:25:26.799 Matters podcast. It's certainly given us a lot 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:29.160 to think about. For more insights into the world 00:25:29.160 --> 00:25:31.259 of meteorology and how it impacts all our lives, 00:25:31.619 --> 00:25:33.299 make sure you follow meteorologist Rob Jones 00:25:33.299 --> 00:25:36.000 on Instagram. His handle there is simply Meteorologist. 00:25:36.339 --> 00:25:38.960 On TikTok, you can find him at TVMeteorologist. 00:25:39.130 --> 00:25:40.950 And for all things weather, including our full 00:25:40.950 --> 00:25:43.549 podcast playlist, you can subscribe to Rob Jones 00:25:43.549 --> 00:25:46.690 Hurricane over on YouTube. You'll find the Meteorology 00:25:46.690 --> 00:25:49.470 Matters podcast playlist right there, too. Stay 00:25:49.470 --> 00:25:51.230 informed and stay curious.