WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.060 Welcome, everyone, to the Meteorology Matters 00:00:02.060 --> 00:00:05.120 podcast. Today, we're embarking on a really crucial 00:00:05.120 --> 00:00:07.980 discussion, digging deep into an event that has 00:00:07.980 --> 00:00:10.919 left so many people asking some profound questions. 00:00:11.019 --> 00:00:12.820 And we're here to try and give you the insights 00:00:12.820 --> 00:00:15.580 you need to understand it fully. We are focusing 00:00:15.580 --> 00:00:18.399 on the catastrophic flash flood that struck the 00:00:18.399 --> 00:00:22.179 Texas Hill Country back on July 5th, 2025. This 00:00:22.179 --> 00:00:25.440 wasn't just a severe weather event. It was a 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:28.300 truly devastating human tragedy. It claimed an 00:00:28.300 --> 00:00:30.120 astonishing number of lives. lives, including, 00:00:30.320 --> 00:00:33.420 very sadly, many children. It just raises these 00:00:33.420 --> 00:00:36.340 critical questions about our forecasting capabilities, 00:00:37.479 --> 00:00:39.320 the communication channels that are supposed 00:00:39.320 --> 00:00:41.719 to keep us safe, and frankly, the state of our 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:43.659 preparedness. How could something like this, 00:00:43.659 --> 00:00:45.600 this catastrophic unfold, even though warnings 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:47.939 were issued, were those warnings actually sufficient? 00:00:48.000 --> 00:00:49.579 Or was there some kind of fundamental breakdown 00:00:49.579 --> 00:00:51.439 somewhere else in the chain of public safety? 00:00:51.740 --> 00:00:54.399 To help us navigate these incredibly complex 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:56.619 and often heartbreaking layers, we have an expert 00:00:56.619 --> 00:00:58.439 with us today, someone who can really connect 00:00:58.439 --> 00:01:00.780 the intricate dots and provide some invaluable 00:01:00.780 --> 00:01:02.820 context for these challenging events. We're going 00:01:02.820 --> 00:01:05.060 to unpack this recent tragedy, hopefully giving 00:01:05.060 --> 00:01:07.719 you a much clearer picture of what really transpired. 00:01:07.939 --> 00:01:10.319 And remember, you can find more in -depth discussions 00:01:10.319 --> 00:01:12.799 just like this one by searching Rob Jones Hurricane 00:01:12.799 --> 00:01:16.019 over on YouTube. You'll also find the Meteorology 00:01:16.019 --> 00:01:18.859 Matters podcast playlist right there. And please 00:01:18.859 --> 00:01:21.040 be sure to follow meteorologist Rob Jones on 00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:24.019 Instagram. That's Meteorologist and also on TikTok 00:01:24.019 --> 00:01:26.939 at TV Meteorologist. The nightmare unfolds in 00:01:26.939 --> 00:01:29.650 the Texas Hill country. Let's start, if we can, 00:01:29.750 --> 00:01:33.189 by just confronting the immediate devastating 00:01:33.189 --> 00:01:37.510 human impact of this truly horrific event. The 00:01:37.510 --> 00:01:39.409 images, the personal accounts coming out of the 00:01:39.409 --> 00:01:42.430 Texas Hill Country are just gut wrenching. We're 00:01:42.430 --> 00:01:45.150 talking about widespread destruction and a profound 00:01:45.150 --> 00:01:48.010 loss of life. As of the recent reports, at least 00:01:48.010 --> 00:01:50.730 37 people are confirmed dead across Texas because 00:01:50.730 --> 00:01:53.349 of these floods. And maybe the most heartbreaking 00:01:53.349 --> 00:01:56.140 part of this toll It includes 14 children. Just 00:01:56.140 --> 00:01:58.879 try to imagine the terror, the desperation. Search 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:01.859 efforts have been agonizingly slow, really arduous, 00:02:01.859 --> 00:02:04.099 and they're still ongoing for over two dozen 00:02:04.099 --> 00:02:06.519 children reported missing from Camp Mystic. That's 00:02:06.519 --> 00:02:08.240 a well -known Christian summer camp right there 00:02:08.240 --> 00:02:11.319 in Kerr County. The thought of those young lives 00:02:11.319 --> 00:02:14.060 just so abruptly and tragically cut short, it's 00:02:14.060 --> 00:02:17.400 almost unbearable. And the sheer scale of the 00:02:17.400 --> 00:02:20.099 environmental destruction is almost impossible 00:02:20.099 --> 00:02:22.360 to really comprehend. The Guadalupe River in 00:02:22.360 --> 00:02:23.900 Kerrville, you know, typically it's this tranquil 00:02:23.900 --> 00:02:25.860 waterway just meandering through the landscape. 00:02:26.259 --> 00:02:29.120 It transformed into just an unimaginable torrent. 00:02:29.280 --> 00:02:32.180 It rose an astonishing 26 feet. 26 feet. Yeah, 00:02:32.259 --> 00:02:35.960 that's a staggering eight meters. in just 45 00:02:35.960 --> 00:02:39.379 minutes before daybreak on that Friday. Think 00:02:39.379 --> 00:02:42.780 about that for a second. A literal wall of water 00:02:42.780 --> 00:02:45.680 moving with incredible speed and just this almost 00:02:45.680 --> 00:02:49.259 unfathomable ferocity. Unbelievable power. Sweeping 00:02:49.259 --> 00:02:51.599 away everything that stood in its path. It devoured 00:02:51.599 --> 00:02:54.840 homes, vehicles, the very landscape itself, the 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:57.439 scene left behind in the wake of this deluge. 00:02:57.789 --> 00:03:00.849 It's just a stark, chilling testament to that 00:03:00.849 --> 00:03:04.330 raw power. Homes and vehicles, once firmly rooted, 00:03:04.449 --> 00:03:05.990 they were simply ripped from their foundations, 00:03:06.250 --> 00:03:09.189 carried violently downstream, ending up as just 00:03:09.189 --> 00:03:12.729 mangled debris miles away. Trees, once strong 00:03:12.729 --> 00:03:15.090 and vibrant, found twisted, splintered along 00:03:15.090 --> 00:03:17.550 the flooded riverbanks. In some cases, entire 00:03:17.550 --> 00:03:19.669 structures just reduced a little more than rubble. 00:03:20.009 --> 00:03:21.949 We've seen images, haven't we, of buildings missing 00:03:21.949 --> 00:03:24.289 entire front walls? Yeah, just gutted. Exposing 00:03:24.289 --> 00:03:27.030 their interiors. Or that pickup truck tossed 00:03:27.030 --> 00:03:29.710 onto its side like a toy. Utterly powerless against 00:03:29.710 --> 00:03:32.669 that force. And the personal accounts, the stories 00:03:32.669 --> 00:03:35.110 from those who lived through it or desperately 00:03:35.110 --> 00:03:37.750 searching for loved ones, they're truly agonizing. 00:03:37.949 --> 00:03:40.370 13 -year -old Eleanor Lester, she was a camper 00:03:40.370 --> 00:03:42.849 at Camp Mystic. She described the site as being 00:03:42.849 --> 00:03:45.719 completely destroyed. She vividly recounted the 00:03:45.719 --> 00:03:49.080 chaos, the sound of helicopters landing, carrying 00:03:49.080 --> 00:03:52.060 people away to safety, and the terrifying experience 00:03:52.060 --> 00:03:54.719 of girls, including herself, just holding onto 00:03:54.719 --> 00:03:57.740 a single rope for dear life to cross a whipping 00:03:57.740 --> 00:04:01.819 bridge with the raging water swirling, thrashing 00:04:01.819 --> 00:04:04.500 around their legs. Then there's the harrowing 00:04:04.500 --> 00:04:06.900 story of Erin Burgess, who found herself clinging 00:04:06.900 --> 00:04:09.159 precariously to a tree with her teenage son. 00:04:09.180 --> 00:04:11.659 Just holding on. Watching in horror as her boyfriend 00:04:11.659 --> 00:04:13.919 and their beloved dog were tragically swept away 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:16.480 by the relentless raging currents. And Barry 00:04:16.480 --> 00:04:19.399 Adelman shared how his family, I mean, encompassing 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:22.060 generations from his 94 -year -old grandmother 00:04:22.060 --> 00:04:24.060 to his 9 -year -old grandson. The whole family. 00:04:24.259 --> 00:04:26.160 They were forced to seek refuge in the attic 00:04:26.160 --> 00:04:29.000 of their three -story house, water steadily engulfing 00:04:29.000 --> 00:04:31.639 the lower floors, rising with just terrifying 00:04:31.639 --> 00:04:34.740 speed. Unimaginable. The human toll, the emotional, 00:04:34.980 --> 00:04:39.050 the physical trauma. It's truly immense. It will 00:04:39.050 --> 00:04:41.490 resonate for years to come. What's immediately 00:04:41.490 --> 00:04:44.509 striking from those accounts, as heartbreaking 00:04:44.509 --> 00:04:48.250 as they are, is that undeniable element of surprise. 00:04:49.170 --> 00:04:52.089 This catastrophic event, it didn't just happen, 00:04:52.189 --> 00:04:53.930 it unfolded right in the middle of the night. 00:04:53.930 --> 00:04:57.009 Right, while people were sleeping. Exactly. Catching 00:04:57.009 --> 00:04:59.230 countless residents and campers completely off 00:04:59.230 --> 00:05:02.810 guard, many asleep, unaware of the danger. And 00:05:02.810 --> 00:05:06.180 it happened in a region that... tragically, is 00:05:06.180 --> 00:05:08.800 profoundly historically susceptible to these 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:11.800 kinds of events. The Texas Hill Country, as many 00:05:11.800 --> 00:05:15.100 folks there know all too well, is often and aptly 00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:17.459 called Flash Flood Alley. I've heard that term 00:05:17.459 --> 00:05:19.759 many times. And it's not just a catchy nickname. 00:05:19.920 --> 00:05:22.620 It's a stark geological and hydrological reality 00:05:22.620 --> 00:05:25.220 defines the region. The terrain there is characterized 00:05:25.220 --> 00:05:28.160 by these rugged steep hills and relatively narrow 00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:31.139 river basins and canyons. OK. So that means is 00:05:31.139 --> 00:05:33.399 when you get significant rainfall instead of 00:05:33.399 --> 00:05:35.180 soaking slowly and harmlessly into the ground, 00:05:35.439 --> 00:05:38.079 especially parched ground, the water rushes rapidly 00:05:38.079 --> 00:05:41.019 down those inclines. It funnels and concentrates 00:05:41.019 --> 00:05:43.540 with incredible speed into those constricted 00:05:43.540 --> 00:05:46.689 riverbeds. This natural setup creates the perfect 00:05:46.689 --> 00:05:49.730 conditions for extremely fast -rising, violent 00:05:49.730 --> 00:05:52.050 flood waters, often with very little warning 00:05:52.050 --> 00:05:54.569 for those in their path. The challenges facing 00:05:54.569 --> 00:05:56.329 search and rescue efforts after something like 00:05:56.329 --> 00:05:59.389 this are just immense, bordering on insurmountable 00:05:59.389 --> 00:06:02.339 in some spots. Rescue crews both local and federal 00:06:02.339 --> 00:06:04.759 they're deploying every single tool every resource 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:07.620 they have helicopters boats high -tech helicopters 00:06:07.620 --> 00:06:10.120 surveying specialized boats navigating really 00:06:10.120 --> 00:06:13.240 treacherous currents Drones giving those invaluable 00:06:13.240 --> 00:06:16.439 aerial views all operating under extremely harsh 00:06:16.439 --> 00:06:18.600 often dangerous conditions, right? We've heard 00:06:18.600 --> 00:06:21.500 reports around 850 people rescued so far, which 00:06:21.500 --> 00:06:24.720 is just a powerful testament to the heroic tireless 00:06:24.720 --> 00:06:27.399 efforts of these teams Absolutely, but the ongoing 00:06:27.399 --> 00:06:30.230 search for victims for those still missing It's 00:06:30.230 --> 00:06:32.209 made exponentially harder by several factors. 00:06:32.529 --> 00:06:34.329 It happened over a major holiday weekend, the 00:06:34.329 --> 00:06:36.509 Fourth of July weekend. Ah, right. Lots of visitors. 00:06:36.970 --> 00:06:39.649 Exactly. Many people traveling, visiting, vacationing. 00:06:39.750 --> 00:06:42.029 It makes it incredibly hard to estimate precisely 00:06:42.029 --> 00:06:44.589 how many individuals might be missing or where 00:06:44.589 --> 00:06:46.610 they might have been. Then you've got the sheer 00:06:46.610 --> 00:06:48.790 volume of debris, the altered landscape, the 00:06:48.790 --> 00:06:52.569 continued high water levels. Yeah. It all impedes 00:06:52.569 --> 00:06:54.550 recovery. Must be incredibly difficult work. 00:06:54.779 --> 00:06:56.920 Governor Greg Abbott has publicly pledged authorities 00:06:56.920 --> 00:06:59.600 will be relentless in their pursuit, vowing to 00:06:59.600 --> 00:07:02.319 find every one of them. And Homeland Security 00:07:02.319 --> 00:07:05.240 Secretary Kristi Noem also promised significant 00:07:05.240 --> 00:07:07.100 federal resources from the current administration 00:07:07.100 --> 00:07:09.779 to aid in these vital efforts. It's an undertaking 00:07:09.779 --> 00:07:13.060 of truly massive scale. And the human toll, both 00:07:13.060 --> 00:07:15.699 lives lost and lives just irrevocably altered, 00:07:15.860 --> 00:07:21.069 it's profound, deeply tragic. So given that scale 00:07:21.069 --> 00:07:23.069 of devastation we've just talked about and that 00:07:23.069 --> 00:07:25.730 undeniable element of surprise for so many people, 00:07:26.209 --> 00:07:29.449 the crucial question that pops up almost immediately 00:07:29.449 --> 00:07:34.310 is this. What did meteorologists know? And importantly, 00:07:34.449 --> 00:07:37.170 when did they know it? This isn't just about 00:07:37.170 --> 00:07:40.029 raw weather data. It's fundamentally about the 00:07:40.029 --> 00:07:42.569 flow of critical information from the science 00:07:42.569 --> 00:07:45.529 side to those who can actually act on it. What 00:07:45.529 --> 00:07:48.509 did the forecast really say in the hours leading 00:07:48.509 --> 00:07:50.980 up to this catastrophe? And here's where the 00:07:50.980 --> 00:07:53.660 story gets some important nuance, I think. Initial 00:07:53.660 --> 00:07:56.300 reports, analysis, they confirmed that both private 00:07:56.300 --> 00:07:59.079 forecasting companies like AccuWeather and the 00:07:59.079 --> 00:08:01.660 National Weather Service did send out warnings. 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:04.079 Warnings about the potential for flash flooding 00:08:04.079 --> 00:08:06.899 many hours before the devastating torrent really 00:08:06.899 --> 00:08:09.220 hit. Right. That's a key point. It wasn't a complete 00:08:09.220 --> 00:08:11.279 surprise in the meteorological sense. So we're 00:08:11.279 --> 00:08:12.879 not talking about a total absence of warning 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:14.579 here, which is a critical distinction, right? 00:08:14.579 --> 00:08:17.019 Absolutely. For instance, the National Weather 00:08:17.019 --> 00:08:19.680 Service. Specifically, the San Angelo office, 00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:22.459 they cover Kerr County. They issued a series 00:08:22.459 --> 00:08:24.939 of flash flood warnings in the early hours of 00:08:24.939 --> 00:08:27.639 Friday morning. And then, as the meteorological 00:08:27.639 --> 00:08:30.519 situation clearly escalated, got more intense, 00:08:30.879 --> 00:08:33.279 they followed up with something pretty rare and 00:08:33.279 --> 00:08:36.600 highly significant. Flash flood emergencies. 00:08:36.919 --> 00:08:39.259 That's the highest level of warning. Right. That 00:08:39.259 --> 00:08:41.639 designation isn't used lightly at all. It's a 00:08:41.639 --> 00:08:44.480 particularly strong urgent alert. It signifies 00:08:44.480 --> 00:08:47.860 an imminent, life -threatening situation. A clear, 00:08:48.039 --> 00:08:50.840 unequivocal signal that extreme danger was unfolding 00:08:50.840 --> 00:08:52.960 right then. You've really hit on a vital point 00:08:52.960 --> 00:08:55.360 there about nuance. While the devastation that 00:08:55.360 --> 00:08:58.059 unfolded was, yes, unprecedented in its immediate 00:08:58.059 --> 00:09:01.240 impact and scale, the forecast, in terms of identifying 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:03.279 the potential for a truly significant event, 00:09:03.460 --> 00:09:06.200 was actually, relatively speaking, quite good. 00:09:06.379 --> 00:09:09.059 Okay, so not a total miss then? Not a total miss, 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:11.659 no. And that's a crucial takeaway. Forecasters 00:09:11.659 --> 00:09:13.940 had for days identified the risk for what they 00:09:13.940 --> 00:09:16.080 internally called a lower probability but much 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:19.240 higher impact flood event overnight. Lower probability, 00:09:19.419 --> 00:09:22.100 higher impact. That specific phrasing tells you 00:09:22.100 --> 00:09:25.529 they were aware of a lurking severe threat. Even 00:09:25.529 --> 00:09:28.429 if the odds were uncertain, the potential consequences 00:09:28.429 --> 00:09:31.110 were clear in their minds. Let's really dig into 00:09:31.110 --> 00:09:33.470 the specifics, though. What was predicted versus 00:09:33.470 --> 00:09:36.110 what actually happened? Because the numbers, 00:09:36.330 --> 00:09:38.950 they paint a stark picture, but they also highlight 00:09:38.950 --> 00:09:41.850 the forecasting challenge. Earlier in the week, 00:09:42.389 --> 00:09:45.129 initial NWS forecasts for the Hill Country predicted 00:09:45.129 --> 00:09:48.309 widespread rain totals, maybe four to eight inches. 00:09:48.409 --> 00:09:50.490 OK, four to eight inches. Then a flood watch 00:09:50.490 --> 00:09:53.830 was issued through early Friday morning. It cautioned 00:09:53.830 --> 00:09:56.009 for more general widespread rain, one to two 00:09:56.009 --> 00:09:58.429 inches, but critically, it also highlighted a 00:09:58.429 --> 00:10:00.830 narrow band where three to five inches were possible, 00:10:01.250 --> 00:10:03.210 and it warned that this would likely lead to 00:10:03.210 --> 00:10:05.350 flooding. So potential for three to five inches 00:10:05.350 --> 00:10:07.649 and likely flooding. Right. Now, contrast those 00:10:07.649 --> 00:10:09.789 predictions with the brutal reality. The hardest 00:10:09.789 --> 00:10:12.110 hit area around Kerr County received widespread 00:10:12.110 --> 00:10:15.110 totals of 10 to 15 inches of rain. 10 to 15? 00:10:15.440 --> 00:10:18.059 And in some highly localized spots, that number 00:10:18.059 --> 00:10:21.779 soared, exceeding an astonishing 18 inches. Think 00:10:21.779 --> 00:10:24.820 about this. In some places, four months worth 00:10:24.820 --> 00:10:27.779 of rainfall came down in just four hours. Four 00:10:27.779 --> 00:10:30.659 months in four hours. That's almost impossible 00:10:30.659 --> 00:10:33.299 to imagine. It's an almost unfathomable amount 00:10:33.299 --> 00:10:35.860 of water in such compressed time, and it far 00:10:35.860 --> 00:10:37.620 exceeded even the higher end of those initial 00:10:37.620 --> 00:10:42.139 predictions. So while the exact extreme intensity 00:10:42.139 --> 00:10:46.220 and the precise localized bullseye of this unprecedented 00:10:46.220 --> 00:10:49.139 deluge were incredibly difficult to pinpoint 00:10:49.139 --> 00:10:51.820 with absolute certainty days in advance, and 00:10:51.820 --> 00:10:54.679 that's a common challenge in meteorology, pinpointing 00:10:54.679 --> 00:10:58.240 the exact location of the heaviest rain. Forecasters 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:00.360 were absolutely absolutely diligently watching 00:11:00.360 --> 00:11:03.179 for specific atmospheric conditions that could 00:11:03.179 --> 00:11:06.179 lead to such catastrophic deluges. They were, 00:11:06.179 --> 00:11:08.700 for example, keenly observing for training storms. 00:11:08.840 --> 00:11:10.360 You mentioned that earlier. Right, like cars 00:11:10.360 --> 00:11:13.360 on a train track. Exactly, where individual thunderstorms 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:15.580 repeatedly regenerate and pass over the exact 00:11:15.580 --> 00:11:17.679 same area, each dropping a fresh load of rain. 00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:21.080 They were also meticulously tracking a mesoscale 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:23.519 convective vortex, often just called an MCV. 00:11:23.620 --> 00:11:27.200 MCV, OK. This is a weak, swirling, low -pressure 00:11:27.200 --> 00:11:29.580 system in the atmosphere. maybe 20 or 30 miles 00:11:29.580 --> 00:11:32.980 across, but it can act like a pinwheel circulating 00:11:32.980 --> 00:11:35.080 vast amounts of tropical moisture and effectively 00:11:35.080 --> 00:11:37.759 pumping it into an area. So it concentrates the 00:11:37.759 --> 00:11:40.419 moisture? Precisely. These are the kinds of systems 00:11:40.419 --> 00:11:43.620 that, if they stall over one region, can dump 00:11:43.620 --> 00:11:47.659 immense sustained amounts of rain. Forecasters 00:11:47.659 --> 00:11:49.600 at the San Angelo Weather Service office, for 00:11:49.600 --> 00:11:52.240 instance, they even specifically wrote in their 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:54.200 internal discussions on Thursday afternoon about 00:11:54.200 --> 00:11:56.840 the potential for torrential rainfall and flash 00:11:56.840 --> 00:11:59.879 flooding if a weak system converged with the 00:11:59.879 --> 00:12:03.279 extremely moist air mass already in place. They 00:12:03.279 --> 00:12:04.980 acknowledged the uncertainty, though, stating, 00:12:05.059 --> 00:12:07.840 and this is a direct quote, still, these features 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:10.600 are so weak and the interaction so complicated, 00:12:11.000 --> 00:12:13.399 if and where this band develops remains uncertain. 00:12:13.740 --> 00:12:16.360 But despite that uncertainty, the concern for 00:12:16.360 --> 00:12:19.139 a very severe event was undeniably there in their 00:12:19.139 --> 00:12:21.220 internal discussion. Right. They saw the ingredients 00:12:21.220 --> 00:12:23.720 for prison. They did. And as the early morning 00:12:23.720 --> 00:12:26.139 hours of Friday progressed, the picture rapidly 00:12:26.139 --> 00:12:29.799 became much clearer and far more dire. By 4 a 00:12:29.799 --> 00:12:32.440 .m., it was absolutely evident that the rainfall 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:35.080 was far, far more intense and widespread than 00:12:35.080 --> 00:12:37.799 even the escalated initial projections. This 00:12:37.799 --> 00:12:40.340 critical real -time understanding led to a stark 00:12:40.340 --> 00:12:43.600 and unequivocal Facebook post at 4 .26 a .m. 00:12:43.600 --> 00:12:46.500 from the San Angelo meteorologist, a desperate, 00:12:46.899 --> 00:12:49.080 urgent public warning. What did it say? It said, 00:12:49.120 --> 00:12:52.960 in bold, this is a life situation, six to ten 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:55.159 inches of rain has fallen and an additional three 00:12:55.159 --> 00:12:57.059 to four inches is expected through daybreak. 00:12:57.179 --> 00:12:59.860 Wow, very direct. Extremely direct. This was 00:12:59.860 --> 00:13:02.299 a clear urgent warning issued as the most dangerous 00:13:02.299 --> 00:13:04.980 phase of the event was actively unfolding. So 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:07.059 if we analyze the forecasters actions purely 00:13:07.059 --> 00:13:09.220 in terms of their meteorological responsibilities, 00:13:09.539 --> 00:13:11.480 they did precisely what they were supposed to 00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:13.500 do within the limits of scientific prediction. 00:13:13.919 --> 00:13:16.179 They identified the initial risk, diligently 00:13:16.179 --> 00:13:18.779 tracked the system as it developed, and crucially 00:13:18.779 --> 00:13:21.039 escalated their warnings in real time. time as 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:23.659 the unprecedented magnitude of the rainfall became 00:13:23.659 --> 00:13:27.019 terrifyingly evident. So the forecast, while 00:13:27.019 --> 00:13:29.399 obviously not predicting 18 inches in one spot 00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:31.779 days out. Right, that's incredibly difficult. 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:34.100 It was relatively good in flagging the danger 00:13:34.100 --> 00:13:37.340 and escalating warnings, especially considering, 00:13:37.460 --> 00:13:40.360 as we'll discuss, the pressures the NWS is under. 00:13:40.580 --> 00:13:43.480 The science of the deluge. Why so much water? 00:13:43.659 --> 00:13:45.759 Okay, that brings us right to the heart of the 00:13:45.759 --> 00:13:48.370 meteorological forces at play here. We've discussed 00:13:48.370 --> 00:13:50.629 the devastating impact, the fact that warnings 00:13:50.629 --> 00:13:53.370 were issued. But to really understand the sheer 00:13:53.370 --> 00:13:55.389 force unleashed that morning, we need to delve 00:13:55.389 --> 00:13:58.539 into the atmosphere itself. What were the extraordinary 00:13:58.539 --> 00:14:00.740 atmospheric ingredients that lined up to create 00:14:00.740 --> 00:14:03.159 this catastrophic downpour? This wasn't just 00:14:03.159 --> 00:14:05.320 a normal thunderstorm, clearly. Oh, absolutely 00:14:05.320 --> 00:14:08.000 not. This was a convergence of multiple powerful 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:10.720 factors and almost perfect atmospheric alignment 00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:13.080 that created truly extraordinary conditions. 00:14:13.879 --> 00:14:16.220 A set of meteorologists would describe as exceptionally 00:14:16.220 --> 00:14:19.320 rare. First and foremost, the sources of moisture 00:14:19.320 --> 00:14:21.659 fueling this event were just incredibly abundant 00:14:21.659 --> 00:14:24.240 and intensely potent. You had these powerful 00:14:24.240 --> 00:14:27.000 deep plumes of moisture streaming continuously 00:14:27.000 --> 00:14:29.500 northward, directly from the warm waters of the 00:14:29.500 --> 00:14:31.320 Gulf of Mexico. Like an open spigot, really. 00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:33.899 It's pumping it in. Exactly. But there was another 00:14:33.899 --> 00:14:36.700 equally critical element adding to the saturation, 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:39.659 the lingering remnants of tropical stormberry. 00:14:39.820 --> 00:14:41.720 Berry. That was days earlier, wasn't it? We were 00:14:41.720 --> 00:14:44.700 in Mexico. It was. The system had officially 00:14:44.700 --> 00:14:47.220 dissipated over northeastern Mexico about five 00:14:47.220 --> 00:14:50.179 days prior. But it left behind this intensely 00:14:50.179 --> 00:14:53.620 moist, highly unstable air mass. This residual 00:14:53.620 --> 00:14:56.279 moisture slowly wafted north. northward, right 00:14:56.279 --> 00:14:59.320 into Texas, effectively preloading the atmosphere 00:14:59.320 --> 00:15:02.700 over the region, like a giant invisible sponge 00:15:02.700 --> 00:15:05.220 already saturated to its absolute limit before 00:15:05.220 --> 00:15:07.600 the main event even started. And to compound 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:10.740 this already precarious situation, sea surface 00:15:10.740 --> 00:15:12.720 temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico had been running 00:15:12.720 --> 00:15:15.039 significantly above average for months leading 00:15:15.039 --> 00:15:17.159 up to this. Warmer water means more evaporation, 00:15:17.340 --> 00:15:19.779 right? Precisely, which translates directly into 00:15:19.779 --> 00:15:22.139 more water vapor being infused into the atmosphere, 00:15:22.460 --> 00:15:24.820 essentially more fuel for any potential storm. 00:15:24.649 --> 00:15:27.470 And as if that wasn't enough, even more moisture 00:15:27.470 --> 00:15:29.570 was pulled in from the Pacific Ocean to the West, 00:15:29.889 --> 00:15:31.669 adding yet another layer to this atmospheric 00:15:31.669 --> 00:15:34.049 cocktail. So moisture from the Gulf, remnants 00:15:34.049 --> 00:15:37.200 of berry. and the Pacific. Yes. All of these 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:39.960 factors combined to create an atmosphere so primed 00:15:39.960 --> 00:15:42.480 for massive rainfall that it was frankly astonishing. 00:15:43.139 --> 00:15:45.580 Then you had the actual mechanics, the training 00:15:45.580 --> 00:15:48.980 storms and that mesoscale convective vortex MCV 00:15:48.980 --> 00:15:52.240 we mentioned. This weak swirl only about 20 to 00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:54.820 30 miles across. It didn't just circulate tropical 00:15:54.820 --> 00:15:57.000 moisture. It acted like that pinwheel or conveyor 00:15:57.000 --> 00:15:59.259 belt. Instead of moving quickly and allowing 00:15:59.259 --> 00:16:01.799 storms to pass, it stalled almost completely. 00:16:01.820 --> 00:16:04.679 Just sat there. pretty much, causing storms to 00:16:04.679 --> 00:16:07.179 repeatedly regenerate over the exact same area, 00:16:07.879 --> 00:16:10.100 continuously wringing out moisture again and 00:16:10.100 --> 00:16:13.639 again, over and over. As one meteorologist vividly 00:16:13.639 --> 00:16:16.000 put it, it was a weather system without a road 00:16:16.000 --> 00:16:18.200 to get away from the Lone Star State. Why didn't 00:16:18.200 --> 00:16:21.039 it move? Because the crucial upper level winds, 00:16:21.139 --> 00:16:23.440 the powerful steering currents of the jet stream, 00:16:24.120 --> 00:16:26.799 they just weren't present in that area to push 00:16:26.799 --> 00:16:29.159 this moisture laden system away. It was essentially 00:16:29.159 --> 00:16:32.870 stuck in place, relentlessly dumping rain. The 00:16:32.870 --> 00:16:35.309 sheer, almost unimaginable amount of moisture 00:16:35.309 --> 00:16:37.629 contained within that column of atmosphere was 00:16:37.629 --> 00:16:40.590 staggering. Total atmospheric moisture readings 00:16:40.590 --> 00:16:43.850 in this region were recorded in the top 0 .5 00:16:43.850 --> 00:16:46.110 % of historical observations for this time of 00:16:46.110 --> 00:16:48.429 year, the top half percent. Top half percent, 00:16:48.470 --> 00:16:51.110 that's incredible. It is. To try and grasp that 00:16:51.110 --> 00:16:53.990 scale, consider this. If you could condense all 00:16:53.990 --> 00:16:56.330 the water vapor above just a single square inch 00:16:56.330 --> 00:16:59.250 of ground, it would have amounted to 2 .25 inches 00:16:59.250 --> 00:17:01.230 of liquid water. Two and a quarter inches of 00:17:01.230 --> 00:17:03.070 water just held in the air above every square 00:17:03.070 --> 00:17:06.299 inch. Exactly. That is an extraordinary amount 00:17:06.299 --> 00:17:09.119 of potential rainfall, far exceeding what's typical, 00:17:09.799 --> 00:17:12.619 truly priming the atmosphere for a deluge of 00:17:12.619 --> 00:17:15.880 historic proportions. Imagine that massive sponge 00:17:15.880 --> 00:17:19.099 constantly being squeezed out over the same tiny 00:17:19.099 --> 00:17:22.539 spot, then immediately dipped back into an overflowing 00:17:22.539 --> 00:17:25.079 bucket of water, only to be squeezed out again, 00:17:25.460 --> 00:17:27.880 each squeeze delivering more catastrophic rain. 00:17:29.079 --> 00:17:31.599 overlay all of these extraordinary atmospheric 00:17:31.599 --> 00:17:33.980 conditions with the unique local geography of 00:17:33.980 --> 00:17:36.220 the Texas Hill Country. Back to Flash Flood Alley. 00:17:36.420 --> 00:17:38.599 Back to Flash Flood Alley, exactly. Known for 00:17:38.599 --> 00:17:41.440 it for a very serious reason. The rugged hills 00:17:41.440 --> 00:17:43.839 carved by ancient rivers, the narrow winding 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:46.859 river basins. It means when water falls, it doesn't 00:17:46.859 --> 00:17:49.960 soak in well. It rushes down quickly, accelerating 00:17:49.960 --> 00:17:51.980 and concentrating as it flows into the valleys. 00:17:52.500 --> 00:17:54.539 And to make matters even worse, the area had 00:17:54.539 --> 00:17:56.799 been experiencing significant drought conditions 00:17:56.799 --> 00:17:58.779 in the months prior. So the ground was hard. 00:17:58.890 --> 00:18:02.309 Dry, parched, hard ground acts like concrete, 00:18:02.490 --> 00:18:04.750 as one senior meteorologist described it. It 00:18:04.750 --> 00:18:07.730 has very little capacity to absorb water. So 00:18:07.730 --> 00:18:10.430 virtually all of that immense rainfall immediately 00:18:10.430 --> 00:18:13.390 becomes rapid runoff, dramatically intensifying 00:18:13.390 --> 00:18:15.970 the flood potential. And it's vital, I think, 00:18:16.089 --> 00:18:18.269 to connect this event to the broader context 00:18:18.269 --> 00:18:21.059 of our changing climate. The climate change link. 00:18:21.839 --> 00:18:24.400 Yes. Meteorologists and climate scientists consistently 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:27.019 explain that a warmer atmosphere, influenced 00:18:27.019 --> 00:18:30.200 by human -caused climate change, can indeed hold 00:18:30.200 --> 00:18:32.880 significantly more moisture, more water vapor. 00:18:32.960 --> 00:18:35.519 This doesn't necessarily mean we'll see more 00:18:35.519 --> 00:18:38.019 rain events everywhere all the time. But when 00:18:38.019 --> 00:18:40.079 they do occur, they have the potential to be 00:18:40.079 --> 00:18:42.519 far more severe, more intense, more concentrated 00:18:42.519 --> 00:18:45.299 in localized areas. They can tap into what Shel 00:18:45.299 --> 00:18:47.980 Winkley of Climate Central aptly turned a historic 00:18:47.980 --> 00:18:50.809 level of moisture. Brett Anderson of AccuWeather 00:18:50.809 --> 00:18:53.029 echoed this, noting a warmer atmosphere holds 00:18:53.029 --> 00:18:55.390 more moisture and we're observing much more total 00:18:55.390 --> 00:18:57.630 atmospheric moisture globally in recent years. 00:18:58.130 --> 00:19:00.210 So more fuel available when these events happen. 00:19:00.650 --> 00:19:03.829 Yeah, exactly. So while this was roughly a once 00:19:03.829 --> 00:19:06.029 in a generation event in terms of its intensity, 00:19:06.289 --> 00:19:08.549 it unfortunately fits a pattern consistent with 00:19:08.549 --> 00:19:11.450 climate change projections. A former chief scientist 00:19:11.450 --> 00:19:14.190 for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:19:14.190 --> 00:19:18.529 Administration, Ryan Mao, he calculated Get this. 00:19:19.150 --> 00:19:22.589 An astonishing 120 billion gallons of water. 00:19:22.730 --> 00:19:26.670 Billion. With a B. 120 billion gallons dropped 00:19:26.670 --> 00:19:29.710 on Kerr County alone in just a few hours. That 00:19:29.710 --> 00:19:32.309 number is just staggering. It speaks volumes. 00:19:32.410 --> 00:19:35.140 It really does. The communication chasm. Warnings 00:19:35.140 --> 00:19:37.160 versus preparedness. Okay, so we've established 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:39.920 the atmosphere was primed almost unprecedentedly 00:19:39.920 --> 00:19:42.799 so and that meteorologists did see the significant 00:19:42.799 --> 00:19:45.839 risk and issued warnings escalating them as needed 00:19:45.839 --> 00:19:48.500 even if the absolute peak rainfall was hard to 00:19:48.500 --> 00:19:50.680 nail down beforehand. But here's where it gets 00:19:50.680 --> 00:19:53.619 really well perplexing and critical. If those 00:19:53.619 --> 00:19:56.000 warnings were sent then why? Why were so many 00:19:56.000 --> 00:19:57.799 people especially those children at the summer 00:19:57.799 --> 00:20:00.279 camps caught so utterly by surprise in the middle 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:02.730 of the night? This raises incredibly uncomfortable 00:20:02.730 --> 00:20:04.430 questions about preparedness, doesn't it? It 00:20:04.430 --> 00:20:07.269 absolutely does. Why weren't these camps evacuated 00:20:07.269 --> 00:20:10.529 in advance? Especially given the known risk in 00:20:10.529 --> 00:20:13.289 flash flood alley and the warnings about a potentially 00:20:13.289 --> 00:20:15.849 high impact event overnight. Was there just a 00:20:15.849 --> 00:20:18.289 profound breakdown in communication somewhere 00:20:18.289 --> 00:20:20.849 in that chain between the forecasters and the 00:20:20.849 --> 00:20:23.309 local officials responsible for safety? This 00:20:23.309 --> 00:20:25.849 is without a doubt the absolute crux of the problem. 00:20:26.289 --> 00:20:28.650 The critical communication chasm that appears 00:20:28.650 --> 00:20:31.599 to have tragically unfolded. What we're seeing 00:20:31.599 --> 00:20:34.460 are significant discrepancies, and in some cases 00:20:34.460 --> 00:20:37.259 you could argue outright failures, in how these 00:20:37.259 --> 00:20:39.960 urgent warnings were not just received but also 00:20:39.960 --> 00:20:42.740 interpreted and ultimately acted upon. AccuWeather, 00:20:42.779 --> 00:20:44.819 for instance, the private forecasting service, 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:47.339 they stated unequivocally in their post -event 00:20:47.339 --> 00:20:50.079 analysis that their warnings should have provided 00:20:50.079 --> 00:20:52.720 officials with ample time to evacuate camps such 00:20:52.720 --> 00:20:55.160 as Camp Mystic and get people to safety. That's 00:20:55.160 --> 00:20:57.890 a pretty direct statement, ample time. It's very 00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:00.710 direct. It challenges any claims of a complete 00:21:00.710 --> 00:21:03.009 lack of foresight or sufficient warning time. 00:21:03.529 --> 00:21:05.670 Yet we have these conflicting statements from 00:21:05.670 --> 00:21:08.210 various officials, which creates a really confusing 00:21:08.210 --> 00:21:10.089 narrative for the public, trying to understand 00:21:10.089 --> 00:21:13.230 what happened. Nimkid, he's the chief of the 00:21:13.230 --> 00:21:16.009 Texas Division of Emergency Management, TDM. 00:21:16.609 --> 00:21:18.950 He publicly claimed that original forecast did 00:21:18.950 --> 00:21:21.769 not predict the amount of rain that we saw. Which 00:21:21.769 --> 00:21:25.009 seems to contradict what the NWS and AccuWeather 00:21:25.009 --> 00:21:27.910 are saying about identifying the potential for 00:21:27.910 --> 00:21:30.710 a severe event. It does seem to contradict that 00:21:30.710 --> 00:21:34.109 nuance. While the exact totals exceeded initial 00:21:34.109 --> 00:21:36.369 lower -end predictions, the severe potential 00:21:36.369 --> 00:21:39.049 for a high -impact flood event was clearly identified. 00:21:39.470 --> 00:21:41.509 And crucially, those flash flood emergencies, 00:21:41.930 --> 00:21:44.549 the highest alert were issued as the event intensified 00:21:44.549 --> 00:21:46.849 overnight. Chief Kidd also mentioned that his 00:21:46.849 --> 00:21:49.250 agency, TDM, worked with our own meteorologist 00:21:49.250 --> 00:21:52.190 to fine -tune that weather statement. But he 00:21:52.190 --> 00:21:54.750 conspicuously didn't elaborate on any updated 00:21:54.750 --> 00:21:57.410 urgent interpretation that should have or could 00:21:57.410 --> 00:22:00.869 have led to earlier proactive evacuations, especially 00:22:00.869 --> 00:22:03.630 of vulnerable populations like those camps. So 00:22:03.630 --> 00:22:06.349 they fine -tuned it but didn't necessarily issue 00:22:06.349 --> 00:22:09.470 evacuation orders based on that. That part remains 00:22:09.470 --> 00:22:12.539 unclear from his statements. Furthermore, Lieutenant 00:22:12.539 --> 00:22:15.380 Governor Dan Patrick stated publicly that a senior 00:22:15.380 --> 00:22:18.759 TDM official, Region 6 Assistant Chief Jay Hall, 00:22:19.359 --> 00:22:21.460 personally contacted the judges and mayors in 00:22:21.460 --> 00:22:24.480 that area and notified them all of potential 00:22:24.480 --> 00:22:27.759 flooding. Patrick added, Yesterday morning, the 00:22:27.759 --> 00:22:30.119 message was sent. It is up to the local counties 00:22:30.119 --> 00:22:32.759 and mayors under the law to evacuate if they 00:22:32.759 --> 00:22:35.180 feel a need. That information was passed along. 00:22:35.740 --> 00:22:37.960 OK, so the state is saying we told the local 00:22:37.960 --> 00:22:40.559 guys it was their call. That appears to be the 00:22:40.559 --> 00:22:42.880 message from the state level. The responsibility 00:22:42.880 --> 00:22:44.940 was pushed down to local authorities to interpret 00:22:44.940 --> 00:22:48.359 an act. But then you turn to those local officials 00:22:48.359 --> 00:22:50.940 on the ground and the narrative shifts dramatically. 00:22:51.259 --> 00:22:53.799 It paints a very different picture. Kirk County 00:22:53.799 --> 00:22:55.799 Judge Rob Kelly, he's the county's chief elected 00:22:55.799 --> 00:22:59.319 official, the primary emergency manager. He directly 00:22:59.319 --> 00:23:01.240 contradicted the idea of sufficient warning. 00:23:01.460 --> 00:23:04.579 What did he say? He emphatically stated, we do 00:23:04.579 --> 00:23:07.539 not have a warning system and then claimed no 00:23:07.539 --> 00:23:10.319 one knew this kind of flood was coming. He reiterated, 00:23:10.500 --> 00:23:12.180 we had no reason to believe this was going to 00:23:12.180 --> 00:23:15.160 be anything like what has happened here, none 00:23:15.160 --> 00:23:18.180 whatsoever. No warning system and no one knew. 00:23:18.259 --> 00:23:20.099 That's starkly different from the state saying 00:23:20.099 --> 00:23:23.400 they notified them. It suggests a profound disconnect, 00:23:23.539 --> 00:23:26.240 doesn't it? Either in communication or in understanding 00:23:26.240 --> 00:23:29.400 the severity of the information received. Kerrville 00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:31.980 city manager Dalton Rice echoed this apparent 00:23:31.980 --> 00:23:34.519 lack of awareness, stating simply that the rain 00:23:34.519 --> 00:23:37.180 event dumped more rain than what was forecasted. 00:23:37.309 --> 00:23:39.470 These statements from local officials suggest 00:23:39.470 --> 00:23:41.289 either the warnings didn't reach them clearly, 00:23:41.690 --> 00:23:44.009 the severity wasn't properly conveyed or understood, 00:23:44.450 --> 00:23:46.630 or they simply weren't perceived as urgent enough 00:23:46.630 --> 00:23:49.390 to warrant a preemptive middle of the night evacuation. 00:23:50.049 --> 00:23:52.369 And the timing of the public alerts, that's incredibly 00:23:52.369 --> 00:23:54.769 telling. It points to a critical failure in the 00:23:54.769 --> 00:23:57.250 dissemination chain. The National Weather Service 00:23:57.250 --> 00:23:59.529 issued that flash flood warning for Kerr County 00:23:59.529 --> 00:24:03.680 at 1 14 a .m. Friday, a clear An ambiguous alert. 00:24:06.079 --> 00:24:09.220 However, it was at least four hours later, a 00:24:09.220 --> 00:24:12.259 crucial, dangerous delay before any county or 00:24:12.259 --> 00:24:15.500 city government entity in the affected area posted 00:24:15.500 --> 00:24:18.519 any directions to evacuate or take shelter on 00:24:18.519 --> 00:24:21.160 their official social media channels. Four hours. 00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:23.920 In the middle of the night, four hours, this 00:24:23.920 --> 00:24:27.059 gap is absolutely critical. People are most vulnerable 00:24:27.059 --> 00:24:29.680 during overnight hours. They're asleep. They're 00:24:29.680 --> 00:24:31.799 generally not monitoring weather alerts, news, 00:24:31.960 --> 00:24:35.099 or social media constantly. Of course. This significant 00:24:35.099 --> 00:24:37.500 lag suggests a profound communication problem. 00:24:37.720 --> 00:24:40.420 Not just in the initial issuance of the warning 00:24:40.420 --> 00:24:43.940 by the NWS, but in its effective and timely dissemination 00:24:43.940 --> 00:24:46.059 to the public, and perhaps more importantly, 00:24:46.539 --> 00:24:48.640 in its interpretation and activation by local 00:24:48.640 --> 00:24:51.339 emergency management and other officials responsible 00:24:51.339 --> 00:24:53.299 for triggering public action like evacuations. 00:24:54.019 --> 00:24:55.759 The tragic consequence of this communication 00:24:55.759 --> 00:24:58.799 breakdown is painfully clear. It was felt directly 00:24:58.799 --> 00:25:01.519 by those in harm's way. Campers like 13 -year 00:25:01.519 --> 00:25:03.920 -old Eleanor Lester were indeed woken just after 00:25:03.920 --> 00:25:06.400 midnight by the raging waters and had to be rescued 00:25:06.400 --> 00:25:08.680 amidst the chaos. Right when the NWS was issuing 00:25:08.680 --> 00:25:12.140 its most urgent alerts. Precisely. That timing 00:25:12.140 --> 00:25:15.549 aligns perfectly. This sequence warnings issued 00:25:15.549 --> 00:25:18.369 by meteorologists, but people still caught unaware 00:25:18.369 --> 00:25:20.630 in the dead of night strongly highlights the 00:25:20.630 --> 00:25:23.890 unpreparedness Not just of the camp perhaps but 00:25:23.890 --> 00:25:26.049 the broader local communication and response 00:25:26.049 --> 00:25:28.450 system Yeah, it really shifts the focus doesn't 00:25:28.450 --> 00:25:31.289 it from the content of the forecast itself? Which 00:25:31.289 --> 00:25:33.670 again was relatively good in flagging the danger 00:25:33.670 --> 00:25:37.609 right to its effective dissemination? its interpretation, 00:25:37.930 --> 00:25:40.269 and the critical lack of preparedness or action 00:25:40.269 --> 00:25:43.109 that left so many vulnerable during those crucial 00:25:43.109 --> 00:25:45.619 overnight hours. It raises those difficult questions. 00:25:45.960 --> 00:25:48.400 Were there clear established protocols for what 00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:51.140 a flash flood emergency warning means locally, 00:25:51.619 --> 00:25:54.180 especially overnight? Were camp staff adequately 00:25:54.180 --> 00:25:56.339 trained or informed about these specific risks 00:25:56.339 --> 00:25:58.599 in flash flood alley? That communication and 00:25:58.599 --> 00:26:01.079 preparedness gap seems to be what truly exacerbated 00:26:01.079 --> 00:26:03.420 the tragedy here. The system under strain, the 00:26:03.420 --> 00:26:06.099 impact of resource cuts. So what does this all 00:26:06.099 --> 00:26:09.390 ultimately mean then? I mean, beyond the immediate 00:26:09.390 --> 00:26:12.170 events, the tragic communication failures we've 00:26:12.170 --> 00:26:14.849 just dissected, the individual harrowing stories, 00:26:15.369 --> 00:26:17.650 there's this much bigger underlying story here, 00:26:17.690 --> 00:26:20.269 isn't there, about the resources that are dedicated 00:26:20.269 --> 00:26:22.630 to keeping us safe as a nation? When we look 00:26:22.630 --> 00:26:24.289 at this situation, there are these concerning 00:26:24.289 --> 00:26:26.130 systemic issues that just, well, they have to 00:26:26.130 --> 00:26:27.390 be addressed. This doesn't feel like just an 00:26:27.390 --> 00:26:29.769 isolated incident. It feels like a symptom of 00:26:29.769 --> 00:26:31.970 broader pressures on our public safety infrastructure. 00:26:32.250 --> 00:26:35.230 You've precisely identified the underlying issue, 00:26:35.309 --> 00:26:38.789 I think. The criticism, particularly that, frankly, 00:26:39.069 --> 00:26:41.529 misplaced blame from the Texas Division of Emergency 00:26:41.529 --> 00:26:43.549 Management Chief aimed at the National Weather 00:26:43.549 --> 00:26:47.269 Service. It comes amid a deeply disturbing backdrop. 00:26:47.710 --> 00:26:50.710 That backdrop is significant, sustained funding 00:26:50.710 --> 00:26:53.309 cuts, and chronic staff shortages that are plaguing 00:26:53.309 --> 00:26:55.130 the National Weather Service and other vital 00:26:55.130 --> 00:26:57.670 emergency management agencies across the country. 00:26:57.849 --> 00:27:00.789 This isn't new, is it? No, unfortunately not. 00:27:00.890 --> 00:27:03.769 This situation appears to be an unintended, yet 00:27:03.769 --> 00:27:06.410 potentially devastating consequence of broader 00:27:06.410 --> 00:27:09.170 federal policies, particularly those enacted 00:27:09.170 --> 00:27:11.910 by the Trump administration, which prioritized 00:27:11.910 --> 00:27:14.650 federal workforce reductions. Let's dig into 00:27:14.650 --> 00:27:16.670 the specifics here because it matters. The Trump 00:27:16.670 --> 00:27:18.789 administration made cuts to the federal workforce 00:27:18.789 --> 00:27:21.789 an early and significant priority. These reductions 00:27:21.789 --> 00:27:23.930 extended significantly, and some would argue 00:27:23.930 --> 00:27:26.329 disproportionately, to the National Weather Service. 00:27:26.829 --> 00:27:29.049 This crucial agency was specifically targeted 00:27:29.049 --> 00:27:30.769 by something called the Department of Government 00:27:30.769 --> 00:27:33.849 Efficiency, leading directly to the loss of approximately 00:27:33.849 --> 00:27:37.049 600 staffers nationwide. That's 100 people. That's 00:27:37.049 --> 00:27:40.569 a lot for a specialized agency like NWS. It's 00:27:40.569 --> 00:27:43.190 a huge number. Internal documents and reports 00:27:43.190 --> 00:27:45.970 even before the specific flood indicated the 00:27:45.970 --> 00:27:48.630 NWS was already preparing for degraded forecasting 00:27:48.630 --> 00:27:51.789 services and facing severe shortages of highly 00:27:51.789 --> 00:27:54.829 trained meteorologists. This means less capacity, 00:27:55.190 --> 00:27:57.630 potentially slower response times, and definitely 00:27:57.630 --> 00:28:00.650 an increased burden on the remaining staff. And 00:28:00.650 --> 00:28:03.230 there's a glaring, particularly impactful example 00:28:03.230 --> 00:28:05.549 of this directly at the local level where this 00:28:05.549 --> 00:28:08.109 tragedy occurred. It involves a critical position, 00:28:08.569 --> 00:28:11.470 the warning coordination meteorologist, the WCM. 00:28:11.509 --> 00:28:14.460 The WCM, what exactly do they do? This role is 00:28:14.460 --> 00:28:17.339 absolutely vital within an NWS office. The WCM 00:28:17.339 --> 00:28:19.940 is the primary liaison. They coordinate warnings 00:28:19.940 --> 00:28:22.380 directly with outside entities, local emergency 00:28:22.380 --> 00:28:24.839 management, law enforcement, the media. They 00:28:24.839 --> 00:28:28.140 act as a crucial voice, translating complex meteorological 00:28:28.140 --> 00:28:30.740 information into actionable public safety messages. 00:28:31.039 --> 00:28:33.579 They build relationships. OK, so the key communication 00:28:33.579 --> 00:28:36.319 link. Exactly. And this specific WCM position 00:28:36.319 --> 00:28:39.299 at the local NWS office in San Angelo, the one 00:28:39.299 --> 00:28:41.599 covering Kerr County, has been vacant since April. 00:28:41.839 --> 00:28:45.480 Vacant since April. major flood. Yes. The longtime 00:28:45.480 --> 00:28:48.680 employee who held that role, Paul Yura, someone 00:28:48.680 --> 00:28:51.700 with tremendous experience, invaluable, nuanced 00:28:51.700 --> 00:28:54.099 understanding of local weather patterns, local 00:28:54.099 --> 00:28:57.240 needs, built relationships over years, he took 00:28:57.240 --> 00:28:59.759 an early retirement package. This wasn't just 00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:01.740 a random departure. It was part of a structured 00:29:01.740 --> 00:29:04.460 early retirement program offered during extensive 00:29:04.460 --> 00:29:07.039 budget and personnel reductions within NOAA, 00:29:07.119 --> 00:29:09.359 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:29:09.819 --> 00:29:13.869 and NWS's parent agency. So forced out by budget 00:29:13.869 --> 00:29:15.809 cuts, essentially. Effectively, yes, through 00:29:15.809 --> 00:29:17.990 these early retirement incentives driven by budget 00:29:17.990 --> 00:29:20.490 constraints. When you lose someone with that 00:29:20.490 --> 00:29:23.130 level of institutional knowledge and local expertise, 00:29:23.349 --> 00:29:25.190 especially in that critical coordination role, 00:29:25.569 --> 00:29:28.779 it creates a void. A void that's incredibly difficult 00:29:28.779 --> 00:29:31.720 to fill, particularly in a high -stakes, rapidly 00:29:31.720 --> 00:29:34.180 evolving situation like a flash flood. And it's 00:29:34.180 --> 00:29:36.460 not just that one critical role. That San Angelo 00:29:36.460 --> 00:29:38.539 office, responsible for warnings in this region, 00:29:39.000 --> 00:29:41.039 currently has five other critical vacancies. 00:29:41.099 --> 00:29:44.039 Five more. Yes. Another management position. 00:29:44.269 --> 00:29:47.470 Two frontline meteorologists, the people actually 00:29:47.470 --> 00:29:50.089 making the forecasts and warnings, a hydrologist 00:29:50.089 --> 00:29:52.490 who specializes in water flow and flood prediction, 00:29:53.049 --> 00:29:55.349 and an electronic technician who maintains the 00:29:55.349 --> 00:29:57.470 vital radar and other equipment. That sounds 00:29:57.470 --> 00:29:59.970 like a skeleton crew almost. It creates immense 00:29:59.970 --> 00:30:03.269 strain. All five living former directors of the 00:30:03.269 --> 00:30:05.670 National Weather Service were so alarmed by these 00:30:05.670 --> 00:30:09.250 cuts nationally that they issued a stark, unprecedented 00:30:09.250 --> 00:30:11.769 warning back in May. They feared these reductions 00:30:11.769 --> 00:30:14.369 would leave the nation's official weather forecasting 00:30:14.369 --> 00:30:17.109 entity at a significant deficit, just as we head 00:30:17.109 --> 00:30:19.809 into the busiest time for severe storm predictions 00:30:19.809 --> 00:30:21.890 like tornadoes and hurricanes. What was their 00:30:21.890 --> 00:30:24.210 biggest fear? Their absolute worst nightmare, 00:30:24.470 --> 00:30:28.450 they explicitly wrote, was needless loss of life. 00:30:29.029 --> 00:30:31.829 A fear that, tragically, seems to have been realized 00:30:31.829 --> 00:30:34.569 here. Broadly, NBC News reported that the agency 00:30:34.569 --> 00:30:36.750 was forced to shuffle existing employees around 00:30:36.750 --> 00:30:40.049 just to cover about 150 vacated positions nationwide, 00:30:40.470 --> 00:30:42.950 a result of both firings of probationary employees 00:30:42.950 --> 00:30:44.950 and those early retirements of other experienced 00:30:44.950 --> 00:30:47.690 workers. This internal shuffling meant some crucial 00:30:47.690 --> 00:30:50.069 forecasting offices were left without overnight 00:30:50.069 --> 00:30:52.730 service. No overnight service for weather forecasting. 00:30:52.970 --> 00:30:55.569 In some offices, yes. Directly increasing the 00:30:55.569 --> 00:30:57.269 risk to the public during critical nighttime 00:30:57.269 --> 00:30:59.990 events like this one. Now, thankfully, the NWS 00:30:59.990 --> 00:31:02.190 was granted a waiver for a hiring freeze in June 00:31:02.190 --> 00:31:05.289 and is now actively trying to hire 126 people 00:31:05.289 --> 00:31:07.930 to stabilize the agency. That's something, at 00:31:07.930 --> 00:31:10.829 least. It is, but the severe shortages and the 00:31:10.829 --> 00:31:13.289 profound loss of invaluable expertise from those 00:31:13.289 --> 00:31:16.430 early retirements, like Paul Uras, mean the agency's 00:31:16.430 --> 00:31:19.170 capacity is still diminished. This is a deficit 00:31:19.170 --> 00:31:22.210 that needs urgent, sustained attention and resources. 00:31:23.029 --> 00:31:25.900 So... When the Texas Division of Emergency Management 00:31:25.900 --> 00:31:29.539 Chief, NMKID, wrongly placed blame on the National 00:31:29.539 --> 00:31:33.039 Weather Service in this specific case, it unfortunately 00:31:33.039 --> 00:31:36.339 obscures this much larger systemic reality. Right. 00:31:36.339 --> 00:31:38.500 It ignores the context of the strain they were 00:31:38.500 --> 00:31:40.900 under. Exactly. In this instance, the forecasters, 00:31:40.900 --> 00:31:43.059 despite operating within a system clearly under 00:31:43.059 --> 00:31:45.960 severe stress, facing significant understaffing, 00:31:46.000 --> 00:31:48.480 loss of crucial knowledge, degradation of things 00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:50.579 like weather balloon launches, which provide 00:31:50.579 --> 00:31:53.180 vital atmospheric data, they They did what they 00:31:53.180 --> 00:31:55.920 were supposed to do meteorologically. They identified 00:31:55.920 --> 00:31:59.059 the risk. They issued escalating warnings. The 00:31:59.059 --> 00:32:01.680 fundamental problem, as we've highlighted, seems 00:32:01.680 --> 00:32:04.180 to be that profound communication breakdown and 00:32:04.180 --> 00:32:06.480 the resulting lack of preparedness or action 00:32:06.480 --> 00:32:09.380 at the local level. A problem likely exacerbated 00:32:09.380 --> 00:32:12.619 by the weakened state of the NWS itself. Undoubtedly. 00:32:13.240 --> 00:32:15.619 The ongoing defunding of science and crucial 00:32:15.619 --> 00:32:18.579 agencies by the Trump administration, and frankly, 00:32:18.819 --> 00:32:21.460 what they continue to do by defunding, it is 00:32:21.460 --> 00:32:23.640 going to cause even more problems. It will put 00:32:23.640 --> 00:32:26.240 more people in harm's way across many vital sectors. 00:32:26.720 --> 00:32:28.880 Even the Secretary of Homeland Security herself 00:32:28.880 --> 00:32:31.180 acknowledged this, speaking about the pressing 00:32:31.180 --> 00:32:33.700 need for upgraded technology, a need that budget 00:32:33.700 --> 00:32:36.460 cuts directly undermine. It's a stark reminder, 00:32:36.599 --> 00:32:40.809 isn't it? The very real human cost. when critical 00:32:40.809 --> 00:32:42.910 public services are systematically weakened. 00:32:42.930 --> 00:32:45.569 It truly is. Lessons from Flash Flood Alley, 00:32:45.650 --> 00:32:48.269 looking ahead. It's a really sobering thought, 00:32:48.529 --> 00:32:50.349 deeply concerning when you connect those dots. 00:32:50.809 --> 00:32:52.390 And the Texas health country, as you've said, 00:32:52.609 --> 00:32:54.910 has endured this type of tragedy before. This 00:32:54.910 --> 00:32:56.829 isn't its first catastrophic flood, and sadly, 00:32:56.990 --> 00:33:00.470 it probably won't be its last. So what can history 00:33:00.470 --> 00:33:02.599 teach us here? about preparing for these events 00:33:02.599 --> 00:33:04.900 and what does this particular disaster mean for 00:33:04.900 --> 00:33:07.180 the future not just in flash flood alley but 00:33:07.180 --> 00:33:09.839 potentially across other vulnerable regions how 00:33:09.839 --> 00:33:12.519 do we possibly break this awful cycle history 00:33:12.519 --> 00:33:15.299 in this case offers a stark painful and unfortunately 00:33:15.299 --> 00:33:18.400 recurring lesson as we've emphasized that infamous 00:33:18.400 --> 00:33:21.990 nickname flash flood alley It's not casual. It 00:33:21.990 --> 00:33:24.390 is earned through repeated, tragic experience. 00:33:24.849 --> 00:33:27.369 It signifies an area intrinsically, geographically, 00:33:27.569 --> 00:33:30.109 hydrologically at extremely high risk for these 00:33:30.109 --> 00:33:33.349 types of catastrophic, rapid onset floods. This 00:33:33.349 --> 00:33:35.529 recent tragedy, while devastating and shocking, 00:33:35.970 --> 00:33:38.309 is unfortunately not unique in the long, sorrowful 00:33:38.309 --> 00:33:40.759 history of this region's weather. It fits a pattern 00:33:40.759 --> 00:33:42.799 that underscores these systemic vulnerabilities. 00:33:43.420 --> 00:33:45.359 We can look back at past tragedies to really 00:33:45.359 --> 00:33:47.640 understand this recurring pattern and the lessons 00:33:47.640 --> 00:33:49.819 that perhaps haven't been fully learned or implemented 00:33:49.819 --> 00:33:53.440 properly. 1987, a flood on the Guadalupe River 00:33:53.440 --> 00:33:56.079 site rise 29 feet, almost identical surge to 00:33:56.079 --> 00:33:59.059 what we just saw. 29 feet. Wow. In that event, 00:33:59.460 --> 00:34:01.980 a church camp bus evacuating children was tragically 00:34:01.980 --> 00:34:04.579 swept away. Ten children lost their lives. Oh 00:34:04.579 --> 00:34:07.240 no, the echoes of Camp Mystic. Chilling. Chillingly 00:34:07.240 --> 00:34:10.909 familiar. Then, 1998. Another widespread catastrophic 00:34:10.909 --> 00:34:13.170 flood event near San Marcos got 30 inches of 00:34:13.170 --> 00:34:15.349 rain in a short period homes along the Guadalupe 00:34:15.349 --> 00:34:18.090 washed off their foundations just gone 30 inches 00:34:18.090 --> 00:34:21.070 demonstrating the sheer force and more recently 00:34:21.070 --> 00:34:24.579 2015 The Blanco River. Catastrophic flooding 00:34:24.579 --> 00:34:27.280 during the Memorial Day weekend. Houses, bridges 00:34:27.280 --> 00:34:29.860 washed away, 13 people killed across the region. 00:34:30.300 --> 00:34:32.739 We've also seen similar deadly flash floods elsewhere 00:34:32.739 --> 00:34:35.460 in Texas, like San Antonio in June, and in places 00:34:35.460 --> 00:34:37.780 like West Virginia. It shows this is a dangerous 00:34:37.780 --> 00:34:39.880 pattern, not just confined to one spot. These 00:34:39.880 --> 00:34:41.699 aren't just historical footnotes, then they're 00:34:41.699 --> 00:34:46.219 grim warnings. Grim, repeated warnings. Exactly. 00:34:46.940 --> 00:34:49.480 The overwhelming takeaway from this event, underscored 00:34:49.480 --> 00:34:52.639 so powerfully by that historical context, is 00:34:52.639 --> 00:34:55.760 the critical, absolute necessity for a robust, 00:34:56.380 --> 00:34:58.860 consistently well -funded national weather service. 00:34:59.070 --> 00:35:01.590 It's not just about the raw data from satellites 00:35:01.590 --> 00:35:03.909 and radars. It's about the irreplaceable human 00:35:03.909 --> 00:35:06.369 expertise to meticulously interpret that data, 00:35:06.750 --> 00:35:09.730 the dedicated staff to monitor it 24 -7, even 00:35:09.730 --> 00:35:12.010 through the night, and the reliable systems to 00:35:12.010 --> 00:35:13.989 disseminate those warnings effectively and urgently. 00:35:14.429 --> 00:35:17.050 And equally important, maybe even more so, are 00:35:17.050 --> 00:35:19.730 seamless, iron -clad communication protocols. 00:35:20.409 --> 00:35:22.150 Protocols that ensure these critical warnings 00:35:22.150 --> 00:35:25.230 travel unimpeded and are acted upon. From forecasting 00:35:25.230 --> 00:35:27.429 agencies directly to local emergency management 00:35:27.429 --> 00:35:29.920 to local officials, and most crucially directly 00:35:29.920 --> 00:35:32.960 to the public, in a timely, understandable, actionable 00:35:32.960 --> 00:35:35.579 manner. And those profound gaps in that vital 00:35:35.579 --> 00:35:37.679 communication chain were just tragically exposed 00:35:37.679 --> 00:35:40.360 here. Exposed in the most devastating way possible. 00:35:41.440 --> 00:35:43.800 This tragedy, it raises an incredibly important 00:35:43.800 --> 00:35:45.820 question for all of us, really. Something for 00:35:45.820 --> 00:35:47.360 you, the listener, to really think about, perhaps 00:35:47.360 --> 00:35:50.539 explore further. When our natural world becomes 00:35:50.539 --> 00:35:53.519 demonstrably more unpredictable, when extreme 00:35:53.519 --> 00:35:55.920 weather events become more frequent, more intense, 00:35:56.320 --> 00:35:58.820 potentially fueled by climate change, and when 00:35:58.820 --> 00:36:01.039 our fundamental warning systems are placed under 00:36:01.039 --> 00:36:03.639 immense pressure, weakened by chronic underfunding 00:36:03.639 --> 00:36:06.940 staff shortages, what exactly is our role as 00:36:06.940 --> 00:36:10.000 individuals? What can we do? What is our responsibility 00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:12.690 in understanding these complex risks? and preparing 00:36:12.690 --> 00:36:15.969 our own households, our communities, and in advocating 00:36:15.969 --> 00:36:18.170 vigorously for the resources that are absolutely 00:36:18.170 --> 00:36:20.820 essential to keep our communities safe. And maybe 00:36:20.820 --> 00:36:23.699 even more profoundly, how do we ensure that those 00:36:23.699 --> 00:36:25.679 in positions of power, from local county judges 00:36:25.679 --> 00:36:28.480 to state leaders, federal leaders, consistently 00:36:28.480 --> 00:36:30.739 prioritize the well -being, the safety of their 00:36:30.739 --> 00:36:33.659 citizens, by investing robustly in critical public 00:36:33.659 --> 00:36:36.800 services like the NWS, rather than consistently 00:36:36.800 --> 00:36:39.000 defunding and eroding them? That's a powerful 00:36:39.000 --> 00:36:41.079 question to leave us with. It's a question that 00:36:41.079 --> 00:36:43.420 demands our collective attention, our critical 00:36:43.420 --> 00:36:46.539 thinking, and indeed our collective action, if 00:36:46.539 --> 00:36:48.559 we want to prevent such tragedies from happening 00:36:48.559 --> 00:36:51.469 again and again. This exploration into the Texas 00:36:51.469 --> 00:36:54.949 hill country floods. It has been profoundly eye 00:36:54.949 --> 00:36:57.849 -opening and honestly at times deeply unsettling. 00:36:58.380 --> 00:37:01.380 We've delved into the incredible, almost unimaginable 00:37:01.380 --> 00:37:04.159 intensity of that rain, the complex and powerful 00:37:04.159 --> 00:37:06.579 science behind it, and the relative quality of 00:37:06.579 --> 00:37:09.099 the forecast, despite those inherent challenges 00:37:09.099 --> 00:37:11.760 and systemic pressures. But what truly stands 00:37:11.760 --> 00:37:14.579 out, what's been tragically illuminated, is that 00:37:14.579 --> 00:37:17.019 critical breakdown in communication and the resulting 00:37:17.019 --> 00:37:20.260 lack of preparedness that so tragically exacerbated 00:37:20.260 --> 00:37:23.179 the situation. This alongside that worrying, 00:37:23.400 --> 00:37:26.219 ongoing trend of underfunding vital public safety 00:37:26.219 --> 00:37:28.710 agencies like the National Weather service, it 00:37:28.710 --> 00:37:31.309 just paints a really stark picture. Thank you 00:37:31.309 --> 00:37:33.349 so much for joining us on this in -depth exploration 00:37:33.349 --> 00:37:35.550 today. We truly hope this discussion has provided 00:37:35.550 --> 00:37:38.010 you with a clearer, maybe more nuanced understanding 00:37:38.010 --> 00:37:40.170 of what was a complex and truly heartbreaking 00:37:40.170 --> 00:37:42.869 situation. And perhaps it sparked some new questions 00:37:42.869 --> 00:37:45.340 for you to explore further on your own. Remember, 00:37:45.400 --> 00:37:46.739 for more in -depth discussions like this, you 00:37:46.739 --> 00:37:48.760 can always find the Meteorology Matters podcast 00:37:48.760 --> 00:37:50.800 over on YouTube. Just search Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:37:51.239 --> 00:37:53.380 While you're there, you'll also find that dedicated 00:37:53.380 --> 00:37:56.079 playlist specifically for the Meteorology Matters 00:37:56.079 --> 00:37:58.699 podcast. And for more updates and insights, please 00:37:58.699 --> 00:38:01.179 do follow meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram. 00:38:01.340 --> 00:38:03.980 His handle is Meteorologist and also on TikTok 00:38:03.980 --> 00:38:06.880 at TVMeteorologist. Until next time, please stay 00:38:06.880 --> 00:38:08.980 safe, stay informed, and always remain curious.