Welcome to the Meteorology Matters podcast. Great
to be here. Today, we're looking at some, well,
frankly, unsettling weather patterns, focusing
particularly on Florida right now. Yeah, the
situation down there is pretty dramatic. We're
seeing extreme heat in the coastal waters. I
mean, there was that report of ocean temperatures
hitting nearly 98 degrees Fahrenheit in Everglades
National Park recently. 98 degrees, that's something
you'd maybe expect in peak July, not late May.
Exactly. So today, we want to really understand
this marine heat wave. What's causing it? What
are the impacts right now on weather, on ecosystems?
And crucially, what it might signal for the upcoming
hurricane season, especially given the patterns
we've seen lately with powerful storms. OK, so
let's start with the heat wave itself. It's affecting
waters near Florida, the Caribbean, the Bahamas.
What exactly defines a marine heat wave? Right.
So basically it's a large area of the ocean where
the water temperatures stay well above average
for an extended time. And the current situation
is rated pretty highly. It is. The data we're
seeing shows conditions rated as strong to severe.
That's a level two or three on the Coral Reef
Watch Scale from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, or NOAA. And those specific temperatures,
they just seem unreal for this time of year.
They really are. That nearly 98 degree reading,
that was near Bowie Key in the Everglades. And
even this week, it was still around 97 degrees
there. Wow. And this isn't just one spot. It
stretches from Florida's Big Bend area southward
right through the Keys. The main thing is just
how hot it is and how early it is. Precisely.
These are temperatures we'd normally associate
with much, much later in the summer. And one
of the most immediate and frankly tragic impacts
is on the coral reefs. Yeah, absolutely. The
bleaching alert levels are very high. We saw
severe coral bleaching in Florida back in 2023.
I remember that it was really bad. So bad that
NOAA actually had to extend its severity scale
because the existing one just wasn't enough.
That's incredible. And if you look at the long
term data near Bowie Key, you see this steady
warming trend in the sea temperatures going back
to 2023. It's not just a blip. It's persistent.
Is this heat just around Florida or other areas
feeling it too? No, it's definitely not isolated.
Reports show similar strong to severe marine
heat waves in the western Bahamas around Cuba,
Jamaica, Haiti. So a wide area. A very wide area.
And even closer to home near Pensacola, Florida
and along the Texas coast from Galveston down
to South Padre Island. Again, you're seeing water
temperatures more typical of July. So the takeaway
is that a huge chunk of the Gulf and the nearby
Atlantic is just loaded with this extra heat
energy. That's exactly right. Primed. OK, so
it's clearly affecting marine life. But how does
this superheated water translate to the weather
we feel on land, especially near the coasts?
Well, you can think of these hot ocean areas
as like a local heater for the atmosphere right
above. They pump a lot more moisture and heat
energy into the air, and that can help lock in
unusually high air temperatures and really high
humidity levels over land nearby, sometimes for
weeks. We've definitely felt that heat in the
southern states, even while it's been cooler
elsewhere. We certainly have. While the north
has had different patterns keeping things cooler,
the south has been baking, and that's directly
influenced by this marine heat. The number of
records is staggering. It really is. Just this
month, Over 4 ,000 daily record high temperature
reports across the U .S. That's more than double
the number of record lows being set. 4 ,000.
Wow. Any specific examples that stand out? Oh,
definitely. Tampa just had its hottest May morning
on record. Records go back to 1890 there last
Thursday. The low temperature was 80 degrees
Fahrenheit. Meaning it never got cooler than
80 overnight. Exactly. And Fort Lauderdale set
a similar kind of record, their highest May minimum
temp, at 82 degrees on Monday. Even Houston,
with records since 1889, set seven new overnight
warmth records this month, including a new monthly
record low of 82. So the nights just aren't cooling
off. That's tough. Incredibly tough for people,
for agriculture, for everything. And alongside
the heat, the humidity has just been oppressive.
And that's a direct result of the warm water.
You get much more evaporation off these hot ocean
surfaces. Right. That adds a tremendous amount
of moisture to the lower atmosphere. So you end
up with this unusually high humidity for May,
and we're seeing the effects of that moisture
plume stretching way up the East Coast, even
up towards Maine. And all the extra moisture
in the air, that's like fuel for storms, isn't
it? Precisely. It's like adding high octane fuel
to the atmosphere. It significantly boosts the
potential for heavy downpours and strong thunderstorms.
And the forecasts reflect that risk. They do.
We're seeing forecasts showing a high chance
of heavy rain and intense storms across the southern
and eastern states. That happens when this warm,
really humid air clashes with any cooler, drier
air moving in from the north or west. We've already
seen some pretty nasty storms pop up recently.
Yeah, there have been examples like... Golf ball
size hail in places like Vero Lake Estates in
Florida and also down in Austin, Texas. So the
risks are real. Very real. The forecast risks
include things like isolated tornadoes, damaging
street line winds, large hail and critically
flash flooding because of the sheer amount of
moisture available. You mentioned the moisture,
the fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more
water vapor overall. Does that automatically
mean any tropical system that might form would
be rainier? That's a key point, yes. A fundamental
principle of physics, really. A warmer atmosphere
can hold significantly more moisture. So more
fuel for rain. Exactly. Which means any tropical
system, hurricane or tropical storm that develops
in this environment has the potential to dump
much, much more rain than it might have decades
ago. And that increases the inland flood risk,
sometimes far from the coast. Traumatically.
Often hundreds of miles inland. We have research,
like from David Keelings at the University of
Florida, documenting this. His work shows an
increase of about 25 more extreme rain events
happening in Florida each year now, compared
to 50 years ago. And all that extra rain makes
the ground soggy, which causes other problems
too. Right. You get these increasingly saturated
soils from rainier seasons overall that weakens
tree root systems, making them much easier to
topple by wind. Even winds that aren't quite
hurricane force can turn down a lot more trees
if the ground is waterlogged. Like we saw with
Hurricane Milton last year. That's a good example.
The winds were destructive, but the already saturated
ground made the tree damage significantly worse
in many areas. Okay, so we have these incredibly
hot oceans impacting daily weather with heat.
humidity, heavier rain. Let's pivot now to what
this means for hurricanes specifically. There's
a pretty direct link between hot water and storm
power, isn't there? Oh, absolutely fundamental.
Tropical cyclones are like heat engines. They
draw their energy, their fuel for wind, directly
from the ocean surface heat. So warmer water
equals more fuel. More fuel available, which
means storms can potentially spin up faster,
reach higher maximum wind speeds, and maybe most
importantly, intensify more rapidly. Right. I've
seen analysis suggesting warmer waters really
boost the chances of that rapid intensification.
That's what the data shows. One analysis found
warmer ocean temps increased the odds of a storm
undergoing rapid intensification by about 50%.
50%. Wow. And if you look back over the last
40 years or so, Most tropical cyclones that rapidly
intensified did so when they were over abnormally
warm water. And just to remind listeners, rapid
intensification is that scary scenario where
a storm suddenly gets much stronger very quickly.
Exactly. It's defined as an increase in maximum
sustained winds of at least 35 miles per hour
in just a 24 -hour period. It can turn a, you
know, maybe manageable storm into a potential
catastrophe with very little warning time. Which
is terrifying for people on the path. It really
is. There's a quote from Jeff Masters, a well
-known hurricane scientist who used to be with
NOAA, where he said something like, anything
loose in the Gulf is going to basically have
double the damage potential it used to compared
to 100 years ago. Double the damage potential.
That really underscores the risk from warmer
waters. It does. And the stats support this connection.
Nearly three out of every four major hurricanes,
category three or higher, that formed in the
Atlantic or Gulf, they traveled over record hot
waters at some point. And looking just at the
Gulf Coast landfalls. Over the past 25 years,
half, fully half of all the hurricanes that made
landfall on the Gulf Coast were major hurricanes
at the time they hit land. That's a really striking
statistic. You mentioned the Gulf. Why is the
Gulf of Mexico warming so much faster than other
oceans? It is. The Gulf is warming at roughly
twice the rate of other global seas. And all
that extra heat content is acting as high -grade
fuel for storms entering the basin. And these
marine heat waves, like the one now, are becoming
more common there? They are. While tracking them
systematically is relatively new, maybe since
the 1990s, they've definitely become more common
and more intense since then. especially in the
Gulf. And when a storm encounters one of these
heat waves, that's when the rapid intensification
risk really jumps up. The analysis strongly suggests
that. Since scientists started measuring these
heat waves, about two out of every three rapidly
intensifying storms pass through one of these
hot spots. And more recently... Over just the
last decade, the link is even tighter. All the
two storms that rapidly intensified traveled
over unusually warm waters. The takeaway is clear.
These marine heat waves are a key ingredient
for the most dangerous aspect of modern hurricanes,
their ability to suddenly explode in strength.
And it doesn't take a huge temperature difference
to matter, does it? No, it doesn't. The data
shows the average ocean temperature was about
two degrees Fahrenheit higher, where storms rapidly
intensified compared to other parts of their
track. And remember, even just one degree Fahrenheit
above average can seriously harm marine life
like coral. So these seemingly small temperature
bulks have really big consequences. We've also
seen more of the most extreme storms, category
5s, recently. That's another really concerning
trend. Nearly half of all recorded Atlantic category
5 hurricanes over the last 40 years have actually
occurred just in the last decade. Half in the
last 10 years. Yes. And every single one of those
recent cat 5s underwent rapid intensification,
and four out of the five happened over record
hot waters. It strongly suggests the ceiling
for hurricane intensity is rising. So are experts
starting to talk about a new era for hurricanes,
particularly in the Gulf? Some are, yes. Jeff
Masters, who we mentioned, has said, it's quite
possible we've entered a new era of increased
hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. And
he added, certainly we have reached a new era
of activity for more intense storms. More intense
storms seems like the key finding. It does. And
Sam Lillo, another researcher formerly with NOAA,
made the point that this warming basically shifts
and widens the windows of opportunity for storms
to strengthen. So just to summarize that point
based on the research. Warmer waters clearly
link to more powerful storms, but the evidence
isn't as strong that they cause more storms overall.
That seems to be the consensus in the sources,
yes. The most robust connection is to intensity,
making the storms that do form potentially much
stronger rather than necessarily increasing the
total number of storms each year. Let's go back
to that striking pattern you mentioned, the Gulf
Coast, seeming like a bullseye recently. Why
have almost all major hurricane landfalls hit
the Gulf since the late 90s? It's a really remarkable
statistic when you look at it. Since 1999, there
have been 18 major hurricane landfalls on the
continental U .S. All but one of them were on
the Gulf Coast. All but one in over 20 years.
And the trend is even more stark recently. Since
2017, All 10 major U .S. landfalls have been
on the Gulf Coast. That includes six hitting
Florida, with Milton and Helene last year being
the latest. An eight -year streak of nothing
but major Gulf landfalls. Is that unprecedented?
In terms of frequency within that time frame,
yes. It appears unprecedented in the historical
record, even more frequent than an active period
back in the late 1940s and 1950s. Does the Gulf's
shape play into this? It certainly contributes.
The Gulf is relatively enclosed, right? It's
not wide open like the Atlantic. So once a strong
storm gets into the Gulf, there's less distance
and less time over water for it to potentially
encounter unfavorable conditions like wind shear
or dry air. They could weaken it before it hits
land. It's sort of geographically constrained.
Are there bigger atmospheric patterns influencing
this Gulf? focus like El Nino or La Nina? Experts
definitely think so. Large -scale patterns like
the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ESO play
a big role. Specifically, La Nina phases tend
to create conditions in the Atlantic basin that
are more favorable for hurricanes. How so? During
La Nina, you typically get less vertical wind
shear. That's the change in wind speed or direction
with height that can tear storms apart. You also
tend to get less dry, sinking air. Both factors
help storms develop and intensify. And La Nina
can steer storms differently too. Yes, that's
crucial. La Niña can shift the position and strength
of the jet stream in a way that tends to steer
storms more towards the U .S. coastline, and
often specifically towards the Gulf of Mexico.
And we've had a lot of La Niña recently, haven't
we? We have. Surprisingly frequent and long -lasting
La Niña events in the Atlantic over the last
seven years or so, pretty much every season except
two. That's surprised some scientists and has
likely contributed significantly to these steering
patterns favoring the Gulf. So is this Gulf bullseye
pattern purely natural cycles like La Nina or
is climate change playing a role in the steering
or maybe a combination? What do the sources say?
That's where there's still some scientific uncertainty.
Eight years is a very noticeable streak. But
in climate terms, it's still a relatively short
period to definitively say it's a permanent shift
driven by climate change alone. OK. It's possible
that climate change could create atmospheric
conditions that mimic some La Nina effects, potentially
making Gulf landfalls more likely over the long
term. But predicting specific storm tracks years
out based on climate change is still really challenging.
So not a sure thing yet. Right. Jeff Masters
pointed this out, saying he wasn't totally convinced
this eight year run is the new normal. He recalled
that Florida went a whole decade, from 2006 to
2015, without any hurricane landfall, let alone
a major one. That's a good point. Things can
shift back. Patterns can definitely shift. However,
it's also worth noting that forecasts suggest
we might be heading into another La Nina this
hurricane season. So those favorable conditions
for Gulf storms could continue, at least in the
near term. The takeaway is the intensity link
to warming is strong, but the specific location
link over just eight years is less certain, could
be natural variability amplified, could be something
more. Okay, so looking forward, putting it all
together, what's the consensus from the data
and experts on the future of hurricanes in a
warmer world? The confidence is very high on
two key points. Tropical cyclones are expected
to become more intense, and they are expected
to become significantly wetter. And we know water
is the biggest killer in these storms now. Increasingly
so. Rainfall flooding has become the deadliest
aspect. Data from the last decade shows it caused
nearly 60 percent of all U .S. hurricane -related
deaths. And storm surge isn't going away either,
especially with sea level rise. Exactly. Storm
surge, the water pushed ashore by the storm's
winds, will be riding on top of higher baseline
sea levels. That amplifies the reach and depth
of the flooding. You mentioned Florida's west
coast could see significant sea level rise. Projections
suggest over a foot of sea level rise there by
2050, even under more optimistic scenarios. That
puts vastly more people and property at risk
from surge, including many who live outside the
current designated evacuation zones. You saw
the impact of surge from Helene in Pinellas County
last year. Imagine that same surge starting from
a baseline that's a foot higher. Yeah, that's
a sobering thought. And the rain threat just
compounds things further. It does. Because that
warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, hurricanes
are literally carrying more water. That means
higher rainfall totals, leading to more widespread
and dangerous inland flooding. Affecting areas
far from the coast. Right. Areas that maybe don't
think of themselves as being in a hurricane zone
can suddenly face life -threatening flash floods.
People might be less prepared. Evacuation rights
might not be designed for that kind of water.
We saw tragic examples of that rainfall flooding
recently. We did. Helene caused flooding deaths
while inland in the Carolinas and Georgia and
also in Florida. And Hurricane Milton last year
produced truly historic rainfall in Tampa Bay.
Parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties got
around 17 inches in just five hours. 17 inches
in five hours? Unbelievable amounts. It completely
overwhelmed stormwater systems, flooded inland
neighborhoods that hadn't flooded like that before.
Some analyses put rainfall rates in certain spots
at one in a thousand year levels. So hotter water
means stronger storms, warmer air means wetter
storms. It leads to the conclusion Jeff Masters
summarized. The extremes will get more extreme.
It really suggests that while hurricanes might
feel more routine in some ways because of recent
frequency, the ones that do hit could be significantly
more formidable, primarily because of the increased
water threats, both surge and rain. Okay. Lots
to think about there. Definitely. Which leads
to a provocative thought for you, the listener,
to mull over. If the Gulf of Mexico's geography...
makes it something of a natural trap for storms,
especially intensifying ones. And if warming
oceans are clearly boosting the potential for
that dangerous rapid intensification, what does
that really mean for how we all need to prepare?
Not just if you live right on the beach, but
maybe hundreds of miles inland, facing unprecedented
rainfall and rivers overflowing because the ground
is already soaked. How does that change your
calculus? A really important question. That wraps
up this edition of the Meteorology Matters podcast.
We hope this look at the marine heat wave and
its connection to our weather and future hurricane
risks has given you some valuable insights. Thanks
for joining us. For more weather insights and
updates, you can follow meteorologist Rob Jones
on Instagram. His handle is meteorologist. You
can also find him on TikTok under TV meteorologist.
And on YouTube, just search for Rob Jones hurricane.
That's where you can also find the Meteorology
Matters podcast playlist with our other deep
dives. Thanks again for listening. Join us next
time as we continue to explore the forces shaping
our world.