WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.379 Welcome to the Meteorology Matters podcast. Great 00:00:02.379 --> 00:00:04.980 to be here. Today, we're looking at some, well, 00:00:05.240 --> 00:00:07.559 frankly, unsettling weather patterns, focusing 00:00:07.559 --> 00:00:10.300 particularly on Florida right now. Yeah, the 00:00:10.300 --> 00:00:12.439 situation down there is pretty dramatic. We're 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:15.259 seeing extreme heat in the coastal waters. I 00:00:15.259 --> 00:00:18.120 mean, there was that report of ocean temperatures 00:00:18.120 --> 00:00:21.420 hitting nearly 98 degrees Fahrenheit in Everglades 00:00:21.420 --> 00:00:25.280 National Park recently. 98 degrees, that's something 00:00:25.280 --> 00:00:28.519 you'd maybe expect in peak July, not late May. 00:00:28.670 --> 00:00:32.030 Exactly. So today, we want to really understand 00:00:32.030 --> 00:00:34.549 this marine heat wave. What's causing it? What 00:00:34.549 --> 00:00:37.250 are the impacts right now on weather, on ecosystems? 00:00:37.570 --> 00:00:40.229 And crucially, what it might signal for the upcoming 00:00:40.229 --> 00:00:42.750 hurricane season, especially given the patterns 00:00:42.750 --> 00:00:45.880 we've seen lately with powerful storms. OK, so 00:00:45.880 --> 00:00:48.280 let's start with the heat wave itself. It's affecting 00:00:48.280 --> 00:00:50.979 waters near Florida, the Caribbean, the Bahamas. 00:00:51.340 --> 00:00:53.880 What exactly defines a marine heat wave? Right. 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:55.840 So basically it's a large area of the ocean where 00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:57.799 the water temperatures stay well above average 00:00:57.799 --> 00:01:00.799 for an extended time. And the current situation 00:01:00.799 --> 00:01:03.859 is rated pretty highly. It is. The data we're 00:01:03.859 --> 00:01:06.359 seeing shows conditions rated as strong to severe. 00:01:06.659 --> 00:01:09.120 That's a level two or three on the Coral Reef 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:11.819 Watch Scale from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:01:11.819 --> 00:01:15.560 Administration, or NOAA. And those specific temperatures, 00:01:15.739 --> 00:01:17.900 they just seem unreal for this time of year. 00:01:18.040 --> 00:01:20.959 They really are. That nearly 98 degree reading, 00:01:20.959 --> 00:01:24.060 that was near Bowie Key in the Everglades. And 00:01:24.060 --> 00:01:26.500 even this week, it was still around 97 degrees 00:01:26.500 --> 00:01:29.500 there. Wow. And this isn't just one spot. It 00:01:29.500 --> 00:01:33.140 stretches from Florida's Big Bend area southward 00:01:33.140 --> 00:01:35.000 right through the Keys. The main thing is just 00:01:35.000 --> 00:01:37.819 how hot it is and how early it is. Precisely. 00:01:38.239 --> 00:01:39.840 These are temperatures we'd normally associate 00:01:39.840 --> 00:01:41.969 with much, much later in the summer. And one 00:01:41.969 --> 00:01:44.909 of the most immediate and frankly tragic impacts 00:01:44.909 --> 00:01:47.250 is on the coral reefs. Yeah, absolutely. The 00:01:47.250 --> 00:01:49.430 bleaching alert levels are very high. We saw 00:01:49.430 --> 00:01:52.549 severe coral bleaching in Florida back in 2023. 00:01:52.730 --> 00:01:55.569 I remember that it was really bad. So bad that 00:01:55.569 --> 00:01:57.790 NOAA actually had to extend its severity scale 00:01:57.790 --> 00:01:59.709 because the existing one just wasn't enough. 00:01:59.829 --> 00:02:01.870 That's incredible. And if you look at the long 00:02:01.870 --> 00:02:05.250 term data near Bowie Key, you see this steady 00:02:05.250 --> 00:02:07.450 warming trend in the sea temperatures going back 00:02:07.450 --> 00:02:11.069 to 2023. It's not just a blip. It's persistent. 00:02:11.409 --> 00:02:14.349 Is this heat just around Florida or other areas 00:02:14.349 --> 00:02:16.590 feeling it too? No, it's definitely not isolated. 00:02:17.550 --> 00:02:20.689 Reports show similar strong to severe marine 00:02:20.689 --> 00:02:23.229 heat waves in the western Bahamas around Cuba, 00:02:24.009 --> 00:02:27.229 Jamaica, Haiti. So a wide area. A very wide area. 00:02:27.340 --> 00:02:29.780 And even closer to home near Pensacola, Florida 00:02:29.780 --> 00:02:31.960 and along the Texas coast from Galveston down 00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:34.419 to South Padre Island. Again, you're seeing water 00:02:34.419 --> 00:02:36.560 temperatures more typical of July. So the takeaway 00:02:36.560 --> 00:02:38.620 is that a huge chunk of the Gulf and the nearby 00:02:38.620 --> 00:02:40.979 Atlantic is just loaded with this extra heat 00:02:40.979 --> 00:02:43.780 energy. That's exactly right. Primed. OK, so 00:02:43.780 --> 00:02:46.280 it's clearly affecting marine life. But how does 00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:48.740 this superheated water translate to the weather 00:02:48.740 --> 00:02:51.919 we feel on land, especially near the coasts? 00:02:51.979 --> 00:02:53.379 Well, you can think of these hot ocean areas 00:02:53.379 --> 00:02:55.719 as like a local heater for the atmosphere right 00:02:55.719 --> 00:02:58.009 above. They pump a lot more moisture and heat 00:02:58.009 --> 00:03:00.969 energy into the air, and that can help lock in 00:03:00.969 --> 00:03:04.590 unusually high air temperatures and really high 00:03:04.590 --> 00:03:06.810 humidity levels over land nearby, sometimes for 00:03:06.810 --> 00:03:08.969 weeks. We've definitely felt that heat in the 00:03:08.969 --> 00:03:11.050 southern states, even while it's been cooler 00:03:11.050 --> 00:03:13.909 elsewhere. We certainly have. While the north 00:03:13.909 --> 00:03:16.069 has had different patterns keeping things cooler, 00:03:16.469 --> 00:03:18.710 the south has been baking, and that's directly 00:03:18.710 --> 00:03:21.590 influenced by this marine heat. The number of 00:03:21.590 --> 00:03:24.469 records is staggering. It really is. Just this 00:03:24.469 --> 00:03:27.439 month, Over 4 ,000 daily record high temperature 00:03:27.439 --> 00:03:30.219 reports across the U .S. That's more than double 00:03:30.219 --> 00:03:33.340 the number of record lows being set. 4 ,000. 00:03:33.460 --> 00:03:35.919 Wow. Any specific examples that stand out? Oh, 00:03:35.919 --> 00:03:38.139 definitely. Tampa just had its hottest May morning 00:03:38.139 --> 00:03:41.120 on record. Records go back to 1890 there last 00:03:41.120 --> 00:03:43.699 Thursday. The low temperature was 80 degrees 00:03:43.699 --> 00:03:45.539 Fahrenheit. Meaning it never got cooler than 00:03:45.539 --> 00:03:48.560 80 overnight. Exactly. And Fort Lauderdale set 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:50.639 a similar kind of record, their highest May minimum 00:03:50.639 --> 00:03:54.009 temp, at 82 degrees on Monday. Even Houston, 00:03:54.289 --> 00:03:57.509 with records since 1889, set seven new overnight 00:03:57.509 --> 00:04:00.129 warmth records this month, including a new monthly 00:04:00.129 --> 00:04:02.689 record low of 82. So the nights just aren't cooling 00:04:02.689 --> 00:04:05.370 off. That's tough. Incredibly tough for people, 00:04:05.930 --> 00:04:08.110 for agriculture, for everything. And alongside 00:04:08.110 --> 00:04:11.310 the heat, the humidity has just been oppressive. 00:04:11.689 --> 00:04:13.289 And that's a direct result of the warm water. 00:04:13.409 --> 00:04:16.410 You get much more evaporation off these hot ocean 00:04:16.410 --> 00:04:19.009 surfaces. Right. That adds a tremendous amount 00:04:19.009 --> 00:04:21.449 of moisture to the lower atmosphere. So you end 00:04:21.449 --> 00:04:24.050 up with this unusually high humidity for May, 00:04:25.029 --> 00:04:26.790 and we're seeing the effects of that moisture 00:04:26.790 --> 00:04:29.029 plume stretching way up the East Coast, even 00:04:29.029 --> 00:04:31.230 up towards Maine. And all the extra moisture 00:04:31.230 --> 00:04:33.230 in the air, that's like fuel for storms, isn't 00:04:33.230 --> 00:04:36.009 it? Precisely. It's like adding high octane fuel 00:04:36.009 --> 00:04:38.870 to the atmosphere. It significantly boosts the 00:04:38.870 --> 00:04:41.689 potential for heavy downpours and strong thunderstorms. 00:04:41.949 --> 00:04:44.709 And the forecasts reflect that risk. They do. 00:04:45.230 --> 00:04:47.069 We're seeing forecasts showing a high chance 00:04:47.069 --> 00:04:50.009 of heavy rain and intense storms across the southern 00:04:50.009 --> 00:04:52.730 and eastern states. That happens when this warm, 00:04:52.889 --> 00:04:55.389 really humid air clashes with any cooler, drier 00:04:55.389 --> 00:04:57.730 air moving in from the north or west. We've already 00:04:57.730 --> 00:05:00.129 seen some pretty nasty storms pop up recently. 00:05:00.550 --> 00:05:03.509 Yeah, there have been examples like... Golf ball 00:05:03.509 --> 00:05:05.970 size hail in places like Vero Lake Estates in 00:05:05.970 --> 00:05:08.269 Florida and also down in Austin, Texas. So the 00:05:08.269 --> 00:05:11.230 risks are real. Very real. The forecast risks 00:05:11.230 --> 00:05:14.230 include things like isolated tornadoes, damaging 00:05:14.230 --> 00:05:17.509 street line winds, large hail and critically 00:05:17.509 --> 00:05:19.850 flash flooding because of the sheer amount of 00:05:19.850 --> 00:05:22.269 moisture available. You mentioned the moisture, 00:05:22.410 --> 00:05:25.310 the fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more 00:05:25.310 --> 00:05:28.209 water vapor overall. Does that automatically 00:05:28.209 --> 00:05:31.329 mean any tropical system that might form would 00:05:31.329 --> 00:05:34.110 be rainier? That's a key point, yes. A fundamental 00:05:34.110 --> 00:05:36.470 principle of physics, really. A warmer atmosphere 00:05:36.470 --> 00:05:39.370 can hold significantly more moisture. So more 00:05:39.370 --> 00:05:42.670 fuel for rain. Exactly. Which means any tropical 00:05:42.670 --> 00:05:45.810 system, hurricane or tropical storm that develops 00:05:45.810 --> 00:05:48.129 in this environment has the potential to dump 00:05:48.129 --> 00:05:50.589 much, much more rain than it might have decades 00:05:50.589 --> 00:05:52.930 ago. And that increases the inland flood risk, 00:05:53.089 --> 00:05:55.310 sometimes far from the coast. Traumatically. 00:05:55.829 --> 00:05:59.029 Often hundreds of miles inland. We have research, 00:05:59.290 --> 00:06:00.970 like from David Keelings at the University of 00:06:00.970 --> 00:06:03.769 Florida, documenting this. His work shows an 00:06:03.769 --> 00:06:06.750 increase of about 25 more extreme rain events 00:06:06.750 --> 00:06:08.850 happening in Florida each year now, compared 00:06:08.850 --> 00:06:11.290 to 50 years ago. And all that extra rain makes 00:06:11.290 --> 00:06:13.389 the ground soggy, which causes other problems 00:06:13.389 --> 00:06:16.089 too. Right. You get these increasingly saturated 00:06:16.089 --> 00:06:19.350 soils from rainier seasons overall that weakens 00:06:19.350 --> 00:06:21.689 tree root systems, making them much easier to 00:06:21.689 --> 00:06:24.120 topple by wind. Even winds that aren't quite 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:26.740 hurricane force can turn down a lot more trees 00:06:26.740 --> 00:06:29.100 if the ground is waterlogged. Like we saw with 00:06:29.100 --> 00:06:31.420 Hurricane Milton last year. That's a good example. 00:06:31.860 --> 00:06:34.399 The winds were destructive, but the already saturated 00:06:34.399 --> 00:06:36.860 ground made the tree damage significantly worse 00:06:36.860 --> 00:06:39.259 in many areas. Okay, so we have these incredibly 00:06:39.259 --> 00:06:42.139 hot oceans impacting daily weather with heat. 00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:45.600 humidity, heavier rain. Let's pivot now to what 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:48.300 this means for hurricanes specifically. There's 00:06:48.300 --> 00:06:51.139 a pretty direct link between hot water and storm 00:06:51.139 --> 00:06:53.100 power, isn't there? Oh, absolutely fundamental. 00:06:53.720 --> 00:06:55.939 Tropical cyclones are like heat engines. They 00:06:55.939 --> 00:06:58.740 draw their energy, their fuel for wind, directly 00:06:58.740 --> 00:07:01.000 from the ocean surface heat. So warmer water 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:03.720 equals more fuel. More fuel available, which 00:07:03.720 --> 00:07:06.259 means storms can potentially spin up faster, 00:07:06.660 --> 00:07:09.819 reach higher maximum wind speeds, and maybe most 00:07:09.819 --> 00:07:12.579 importantly, intensify more rapidly. Right. I've 00:07:12.579 --> 00:07:15.019 seen analysis suggesting warmer waters really 00:07:15.019 --> 00:07:17.439 boost the chances of that rapid intensification. 00:07:17.540 --> 00:07:20.079 That's what the data shows. One analysis found 00:07:20.079 --> 00:07:22.680 warmer ocean temps increased the odds of a storm 00:07:22.680 --> 00:07:25.740 undergoing rapid intensification by about 50%. 00:07:25.740 --> 00:07:29.060 50%. Wow. And if you look back over the last 00:07:29.060 --> 00:07:32.149 40 years or so, Most tropical cyclones that rapidly 00:07:32.149 --> 00:07:35.129 intensified did so when they were over abnormally 00:07:35.129 --> 00:07:37.769 warm water. And just to remind listeners, rapid 00:07:37.769 --> 00:07:40.509 intensification is that scary scenario where 00:07:40.509 --> 00:07:43.350 a storm suddenly gets much stronger very quickly. 00:07:43.649 --> 00:07:46.230 Exactly. It's defined as an increase in maximum 00:07:46.230 --> 00:07:48.910 sustained winds of at least 35 miles per hour 00:07:48.910 --> 00:07:51.769 in just a 24 -hour period. It can turn a, you 00:07:51.769 --> 00:07:54.329 know, maybe manageable storm into a potential 00:07:54.329 --> 00:07:57.069 catastrophe with very little warning time. Which 00:07:57.069 --> 00:07:59.220 is terrifying for people on the path. It really 00:07:59.220 --> 00:08:01.860 is. There's a quote from Jeff Masters, a well 00:08:01.860 --> 00:08:03.620 -known hurricane scientist who used to be with 00:08:03.620 --> 00:08:06.420 NOAA, where he said something like, anything 00:08:06.420 --> 00:08:09.680 loose in the Gulf is going to basically have 00:08:09.680 --> 00:08:12.180 double the damage potential it used to compared 00:08:12.180 --> 00:08:14.459 to 100 years ago. Double the damage potential. 00:08:14.500 --> 00:08:16.699 That really underscores the risk from warmer 00:08:16.699 --> 00:08:19.699 waters. It does. And the stats support this connection. 00:08:19.870 --> 00:08:22.829 Nearly three out of every four major hurricanes, 00:08:23.089 --> 00:08:25.569 category three or higher, that formed in the 00:08:25.569 --> 00:08:28.250 Atlantic or Gulf, they traveled over record hot 00:08:28.250 --> 00:08:30.089 waters at some point. And looking just at the 00:08:30.089 --> 00:08:32.929 Gulf Coast landfalls. Over the past 25 years, 00:08:33.370 --> 00:08:35.429 half, fully half of all the hurricanes that made 00:08:35.429 --> 00:08:37.710 landfall on the Gulf Coast were major hurricanes 00:08:37.710 --> 00:08:40.700 at the time they hit land. That's a really striking 00:08:40.700 --> 00:08:42.659 statistic. You mentioned the Gulf. Why is the 00:08:42.659 --> 00:08:45.019 Gulf of Mexico warming so much faster than other 00:08:45.019 --> 00:08:47.840 oceans? It is. The Gulf is warming at roughly 00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:50.419 twice the rate of other global seas. And all 00:08:50.419 --> 00:08:52.779 that extra heat content is acting as high -grade 00:08:52.779 --> 00:08:54.980 fuel for storms entering the basin. And these 00:08:54.980 --> 00:08:57.539 marine heat waves, like the one now, are becoming 00:08:57.539 --> 00:09:00.679 more common there? They are. While tracking them 00:09:00.679 --> 00:09:02.879 systematically is relatively new, maybe since 00:09:02.879 --> 00:09:05.960 the 1990s, they've definitely become more common 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:08.730 and more intense since then. especially in the 00:09:08.730 --> 00:09:11.029 Gulf. And when a storm encounters one of these 00:09:11.029 --> 00:09:13.730 heat waves, that's when the rapid intensification 00:09:13.730 --> 00:09:16.830 risk really jumps up. The analysis strongly suggests 00:09:16.830 --> 00:09:19.149 that. Since scientists started measuring these 00:09:19.149 --> 00:09:22.149 heat waves, about two out of every three rapidly 00:09:22.149 --> 00:09:24.710 intensifying storms pass through one of these 00:09:24.710 --> 00:09:26.929 hot spots. And more recently... Over just the 00:09:26.929 --> 00:09:30.029 last decade, the link is even tighter. All the 00:09:30.029 --> 00:09:32.529 two storms that rapidly intensified traveled 00:09:32.529 --> 00:09:35.850 over unusually warm waters. The takeaway is clear. 00:09:36.590 --> 00:09:39.110 These marine heat waves are a key ingredient 00:09:39.110 --> 00:09:41.509 for the most dangerous aspect of modern hurricanes, 00:09:41.870 --> 00:09:43.750 their ability to suddenly explode in strength. 00:09:43.950 --> 00:09:46.190 And it doesn't take a huge temperature difference 00:09:46.190 --> 00:09:49.070 to matter, does it? No, it doesn't. The data 00:09:49.070 --> 00:09:50.909 shows the average ocean temperature was about 00:09:50.909 --> 00:09:53.450 two degrees Fahrenheit higher, where storms rapidly 00:09:53.450 --> 00:09:55.169 intensified compared to other parts of their 00:09:55.169 --> 00:09:57.990 track. And remember, even just one degree Fahrenheit 00:09:57.990 --> 00:10:00.610 above average can seriously harm marine life 00:10:00.610 --> 00:10:03.529 like coral. So these seemingly small temperature 00:10:03.529 --> 00:10:06.419 bulks have really big consequences. We've also 00:10:06.419 --> 00:10:09.340 seen more of the most extreme storms, category 00:10:09.340 --> 00:10:11.960 5s, recently. That's another really concerning 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:15.399 trend. Nearly half of all recorded Atlantic category 00:10:15.399 --> 00:10:18.820 5 hurricanes over the last 40 years have actually 00:10:18.820 --> 00:10:21.100 occurred just in the last decade. Half in the 00:10:21.100 --> 00:10:24.360 last 10 years. Yes. And every single one of those 00:10:24.360 --> 00:10:28.259 recent cat 5s underwent rapid intensification, 00:10:28.940 --> 00:10:31.019 and four out of the five happened over record 00:10:31.019 --> 00:10:34.320 hot waters. It strongly suggests the ceiling 00:10:34.320 --> 00:10:37.240 for hurricane intensity is rising. So are experts 00:10:37.240 --> 00:10:39.659 starting to talk about a new era for hurricanes, 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.240 particularly in the Gulf? Some are, yes. Jeff 00:10:43.240 --> 00:10:45.600 Masters, who we mentioned, has said, it's quite 00:10:45.600 --> 00:10:47.539 possible we've entered a new era of increased 00:10:47.539 --> 00:10:49.820 hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. And 00:10:49.820 --> 00:10:51.980 he added, certainly we have reached a new era 00:10:51.980 --> 00:10:54.419 of activity for more intense storms. More intense 00:10:54.419 --> 00:10:57.059 storms seems like the key finding. It does. And 00:10:57.059 --> 00:10:59.480 Sam Lillo, another researcher formerly with NOAA, 00:10:59.820 --> 00:11:01.940 made the point that this warming basically shifts 00:11:01.940 --> 00:11:04.240 and widens the windows of opportunity for storms 00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:06.379 to strengthen. So just to summarize that point 00:11:06.379 --> 00:11:08.840 based on the research. Warmer waters clearly 00:11:08.840 --> 00:11:11.340 link to more powerful storms, but the evidence 00:11:11.340 --> 00:11:14.220 isn't as strong that they cause more storms overall. 00:11:14.379 --> 00:11:16.179 That seems to be the consensus in the sources, 00:11:16.419 --> 00:11:19.419 yes. The most robust connection is to intensity, 00:11:19.740 --> 00:11:21.940 making the storms that do form potentially much 00:11:21.940 --> 00:11:25.220 stronger rather than necessarily increasing the 00:11:25.220 --> 00:11:27.059 total number of storms each year. Let's go back 00:11:27.059 --> 00:11:29.039 to that striking pattern you mentioned, the Gulf 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:32.000 Coast, seeming like a bullseye recently. Why 00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:35.080 have almost all major hurricane landfalls hit 00:11:35.080 --> 00:11:38.259 the Gulf since the late 90s? It's a really remarkable 00:11:38.259 --> 00:11:41.480 statistic when you look at it. Since 1999, there 00:11:41.480 --> 00:11:44.220 have been 18 major hurricane landfalls on the 00:11:44.220 --> 00:11:46.720 continental U .S. All but one of them were on 00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:49.100 the Gulf Coast. All but one in over 20 years. 00:11:49.360 --> 00:11:51.659 And the trend is even more stark recently. Since 00:11:51.659 --> 00:11:55.059 2017, All 10 major U .S. landfalls have been 00:11:55.059 --> 00:11:57.200 on the Gulf Coast. That includes six hitting 00:11:57.200 --> 00:11:59.960 Florida, with Milton and Helene last year being 00:11:59.960 --> 00:12:01.700 the latest. An eight -year streak of nothing 00:12:01.700 --> 00:12:03.919 but major Gulf landfalls. Is that unprecedented? 00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:05.980 In terms of frequency within that time frame, 00:12:06.240 --> 00:12:08.899 yes. It appears unprecedented in the historical 00:12:08.899 --> 00:12:11.580 record, even more frequent than an active period 00:12:11.580 --> 00:12:14.620 back in the late 1940s and 1950s. Does the Gulf's 00:12:14.620 --> 00:12:17.320 shape play into this? It certainly contributes. 00:12:17.519 --> 00:12:19.679 The Gulf is relatively enclosed, right? It's 00:12:19.679 --> 00:12:22.639 not wide open like the Atlantic. So once a strong 00:12:22.639 --> 00:12:25.320 storm gets into the Gulf, there's less distance 00:12:25.320 --> 00:12:27.840 and less time over water for it to potentially 00:12:27.840 --> 00:12:30.820 encounter unfavorable conditions like wind shear 00:12:30.820 --> 00:12:33.320 or dry air. They could weaken it before it hits 00:12:33.320 --> 00:12:35.940 land. It's sort of geographically constrained. 00:12:36.240 --> 00:12:39.320 Are there bigger atmospheric patterns influencing 00:12:39.320 --> 00:12:43.519 this Gulf? focus like El Nino or La Nina? Experts 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:45.759 definitely think so. Large -scale patterns like 00:12:45.759 --> 00:12:48.279 the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ESO play 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:51.679 a big role. Specifically, La Nina phases tend 00:12:51.679 --> 00:12:53.700 to create conditions in the Atlantic basin that 00:12:53.700 --> 00:12:56.879 are more favorable for hurricanes. How so? During 00:12:56.879 --> 00:12:59.639 La Nina, you typically get less vertical wind 00:12:59.639 --> 00:13:02.210 shear. That's the change in wind speed or direction 00:13:02.210 --> 00:13:04.850 with height that can tear storms apart. You also 00:13:04.850 --> 00:13:07.629 tend to get less dry, sinking air. Both factors 00:13:07.629 --> 00:13:10.049 help storms develop and intensify. And La Nina 00:13:10.049 --> 00:13:12.730 can steer storms differently too. Yes, that's 00:13:12.730 --> 00:13:16.190 crucial. La Niña can shift the position and strength 00:13:16.190 --> 00:13:18.450 of the jet stream in a way that tends to steer 00:13:18.450 --> 00:13:22.450 storms more towards the U .S. coastline, and 00:13:22.450 --> 00:13:24.509 often specifically towards the Gulf of Mexico. 00:13:24.850 --> 00:13:26.590 And we've had a lot of La Niña recently, haven't 00:13:26.590 --> 00:13:30.389 we? We have. Surprisingly frequent and long -lasting 00:13:30.389 --> 00:13:32.750 La Niña events in the Atlantic over the last 00:13:32.750 --> 00:13:34.889 seven years or so, pretty much every season except 00:13:34.889 --> 00:13:38.370 two. That's surprised some scientists and has 00:13:38.370 --> 00:13:40.429 likely contributed significantly to these steering 00:13:40.429 --> 00:13:43.710 patterns favoring the Gulf. So is this Gulf bullseye 00:13:43.710 --> 00:13:47.250 pattern purely natural cycles like La Nina or 00:13:47.250 --> 00:13:49.669 is climate change playing a role in the steering 00:13:49.669 --> 00:13:52.529 or maybe a combination? What do the sources say? 00:13:52.929 --> 00:13:55.210 That's where there's still some scientific uncertainty. 00:13:55.710 --> 00:13:58.200 Eight years is a very noticeable streak. But 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:00.659 in climate terms, it's still a relatively short 00:14:00.659 --> 00:14:03.299 period to definitively say it's a permanent shift 00:14:03.299 --> 00:14:06.159 driven by climate change alone. OK. It's possible 00:14:06.159 --> 00:14:07.960 that climate change could create atmospheric 00:14:07.960 --> 00:14:10.779 conditions that mimic some La Nina effects, potentially 00:14:10.779 --> 00:14:12.960 making Gulf landfalls more likely over the long 00:14:12.960 --> 00:14:16.139 term. But predicting specific storm tracks years 00:14:16.139 --> 00:14:18.960 out based on climate change is still really challenging. 00:14:19.379 --> 00:14:22.840 So not a sure thing yet. Right. Jeff Masters 00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:25.299 pointed this out, saying he wasn't totally convinced 00:14:25.299 --> 00:14:28.039 this eight year run is the new normal. He recalled 00:14:28.039 --> 00:14:30.820 that Florida went a whole decade, from 2006 to 00:14:30.820 --> 00:14:34.340 2015, without any hurricane landfall, let alone 00:14:34.340 --> 00:14:36.360 a major one. That's a good point. Things can 00:14:36.360 --> 00:14:39.159 shift back. Patterns can definitely shift. However, 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:41.419 it's also worth noting that forecasts suggest 00:14:41.419 --> 00:14:43.799 we might be heading into another La Nina this 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:46.460 hurricane season. So those favorable conditions 00:14:46.460 --> 00:14:48.740 for Gulf storms could continue, at least in the 00:14:48.740 --> 00:14:51.429 near term. The takeaway is the intensity link 00:14:51.429 --> 00:14:54.610 to warming is strong, but the specific location 00:14:54.610 --> 00:14:58.129 link over just eight years is less certain, could 00:14:58.129 --> 00:15:00.570 be natural variability amplified, could be something 00:15:00.570 --> 00:15:02.590 more. Okay, so looking forward, putting it all 00:15:02.590 --> 00:15:04.909 together, what's the consensus from the data 00:15:04.909 --> 00:15:07.090 and experts on the future of hurricanes in a 00:15:07.090 --> 00:15:09.490 warmer world? The confidence is very high on 00:15:09.490 --> 00:15:12.490 two key points. Tropical cyclones are expected 00:15:12.490 --> 00:15:14.629 to become more intense, and they are expected 00:15:14.629 --> 00:15:17.169 to become significantly wetter. And we know water 00:15:17.169 --> 00:15:20.080 is the biggest killer in these storms now. Increasingly 00:15:20.080 --> 00:15:22.740 so. Rainfall flooding has become the deadliest 00:15:22.740 --> 00:15:25.919 aspect. Data from the last decade shows it caused 00:15:25.919 --> 00:15:29.419 nearly 60 percent of all U .S. hurricane -related 00:15:29.419 --> 00:15:31.840 deaths. And storm surge isn't going away either, 00:15:32.039 --> 00:15:34.559 especially with sea level rise. Exactly. Storm 00:15:34.559 --> 00:15:36.820 surge, the water pushed ashore by the storm's 00:15:36.820 --> 00:15:39.379 winds, will be riding on top of higher baseline 00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:42.460 sea levels. That amplifies the reach and depth 00:15:42.460 --> 00:15:44.350 of the flooding. You mentioned Florida's west 00:15:44.350 --> 00:15:47.490 coast could see significant sea level rise. Projections 00:15:47.490 --> 00:15:50.149 suggest over a foot of sea level rise there by 00:15:50.149 --> 00:15:53.549 2050, even under more optimistic scenarios. That 00:15:53.549 --> 00:15:55.990 puts vastly more people and property at risk 00:15:55.990 --> 00:15:58.690 from surge, including many who live outside the 00:15:58.690 --> 00:16:01.649 current designated evacuation zones. You saw 00:16:01.649 --> 00:16:04.090 the impact of surge from Helene in Pinellas County 00:16:04.090 --> 00:16:07.009 last year. Imagine that same surge starting from 00:16:07.009 --> 00:16:09.379 a baseline that's a foot higher. Yeah, that's 00:16:09.379 --> 00:16:11.059 a sobering thought. And the rain threat just 00:16:11.059 --> 00:16:13.820 compounds things further. It does. Because that 00:16:13.820 --> 00:16:16.360 warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, hurricanes 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:18.940 are literally carrying more water. That means 00:16:18.940 --> 00:16:21.480 higher rainfall totals, leading to more widespread 00:16:21.480 --> 00:16:23.820 and dangerous inland flooding. Affecting areas 00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:26.559 far from the coast. Right. Areas that maybe don't 00:16:26.559 --> 00:16:28.980 think of themselves as being in a hurricane zone 00:16:28.980 --> 00:16:31.659 can suddenly face life -threatening flash floods. 00:16:32.039 --> 00:16:34.600 People might be less prepared. Evacuation rights 00:16:34.600 --> 00:16:36.379 might not be designed for that kind of water. 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:38.720 We saw tragic examples of that rainfall flooding 00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:41.580 recently. We did. Helene caused flooding deaths 00:16:41.580 --> 00:16:44.159 while inland in the Carolinas and Georgia and 00:16:44.159 --> 00:16:46.980 also in Florida. And Hurricane Milton last year 00:16:46.980 --> 00:16:49.919 produced truly historic rainfall in Tampa Bay. 00:16:50.590 --> 00:16:53.250 Parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties got 00:16:53.250 --> 00:16:56.490 around 17 inches in just five hours. 17 inches 00:16:56.490 --> 00:16:59.090 in five hours? Unbelievable amounts. It completely 00:16:59.090 --> 00:17:01.590 overwhelmed stormwater systems, flooded inland 00:17:01.590 --> 00:17:03.509 neighborhoods that hadn't flooded like that before. 00:17:04.309 --> 00:17:06.750 Some analyses put rainfall rates in certain spots 00:17:06.750 --> 00:17:09.789 at one in a thousand year levels. So hotter water 00:17:09.789 --> 00:17:12.349 means stronger storms, warmer air means wetter 00:17:12.349 --> 00:17:14.950 storms. It leads to the conclusion Jeff Masters 00:17:14.950 --> 00:17:17.910 summarized. The extremes will get more extreme. 00:17:18.730 --> 00:17:21.049 It really suggests that while hurricanes might 00:17:21.049 --> 00:17:23.549 feel more routine in some ways because of recent 00:17:23.549 --> 00:17:26.589 frequency, the ones that do hit could be significantly 00:17:26.589 --> 00:17:29.049 more formidable, primarily because of the increased 00:17:29.049 --> 00:17:32.269 water threats, both surge and rain. Okay. Lots 00:17:32.269 --> 00:17:35.230 to think about there. Definitely. Which leads 00:17:35.230 --> 00:17:37.670 to a provocative thought for you, the listener, 00:17:38.029 --> 00:17:41.650 to mull over. If the Gulf of Mexico's geography... 00:17:41.519 --> 00:17:44.900 makes it something of a natural trap for storms, 00:17:45.380 --> 00:17:47.680 especially intensifying ones. And if warming 00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:50.660 oceans are clearly boosting the potential for 00:17:50.660 --> 00:17:54.039 that dangerous rapid intensification, what does 00:17:54.039 --> 00:17:57.000 that really mean for how we all need to prepare? 00:17:57.259 --> 00:17:59.559 Not just if you live right on the beach, but 00:17:59.559 --> 00:18:02.660 maybe hundreds of miles inland, facing unprecedented 00:18:02.660 --> 00:18:05.460 rainfall and rivers overflowing because the ground 00:18:05.460 --> 00:18:08.059 is already soaked. How does that change your 00:18:08.059 --> 00:18:10.420 calculus? A really important question. That wraps 00:18:10.420 --> 00:18:12.920 up this edition of the Meteorology Matters podcast. 00:18:13.519 --> 00:18:15.500 We hope this look at the marine heat wave and 00:18:15.500 --> 00:18:17.920 its connection to our weather and future hurricane 00:18:17.920 --> 00:18:20.920 risks has given you some valuable insights. Thanks 00:18:20.920 --> 00:18:22.940 for joining us. For more weather insights and 00:18:22.940 --> 00:18:25.140 updates, you can follow meteorologist Rob Jones 00:18:25.140 --> 00:18:27.990 on Instagram. His handle is meteorologist. You 00:18:27.990 --> 00:18:30.609 can also find him on TikTok under TV meteorologist. 00:18:30.730 --> 00:18:33.109 And on YouTube, just search for Rob Jones hurricane. 00:18:33.589 --> 00:18:35.049 That's where you can also find the Meteorology 00:18:35.049 --> 00:18:37.289 Matters podcast playlist with our other deep 00:18:37.289 --> 00:18:39.650 dives. Thanks again for listening. Join us next 00:18:39.650 --> 00:18:42.549 time as we continue to explore the forces shaping 00:18:42.549 --> 00:18:43.109 our world.