OK, here we go again. That time of year rolls
around, and everyone starts wondering, what's
the Atlantic hurricane season going to bring
this time? Yeah, there's always that mix, isn't
there? A bit of anticipation, maybe a little
bit of concern, too. Definitely concern. And
last year was such a stark reminder that it's
not just the coast, the inland flooding that
can reach really far. Absolutely. Those impacts
go way beyond the immediate shoreline. That's
something we really need to keep in mind. It
really is. So welcome back, everyone, to the
Meteorology Matters podcast. Today we are going
to get right into it. The expert predictions,
the latest ones, for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane
season. We've looked at the outlooks, and yeah,
the goal today is to really unpack what matters
most. To help you understand what you need to
know as we head into the season, it's about getting
the key takeaways. Cutting through the noise,
basically. It's focusing on what the science
is telling us right now. Okay, so let's kick
things off with the basics, just a quick refresher.
When does the Atlantic season officially run?
All right, the official dates haven't changed.
June 1st right through November 30th. That's
the main window we watch covers the Atlantic,
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, the whole basin.
Exactly. That six month period is when we see
the vast majority of activity. And historically
speaking, what does a sort of average or typical
season look like in terms of storm numbers? Well,
if you look at the long -term average, you're
typically talking about 14 named storms. Okay,
14. And how many of those usually become hurricanes?
Usually around seven of those reach hurricane
strength. And then out of those seven, about
three become major hurricanes. Right, major hurricanes.
Let's define that quickly. What pushes a storm
into that major category? Good question. A major
hurricane is category three, four, or five on
the Saffron So that means winds, what, over 110
miles per hour? Sustained winds of 111 miles
per hour or higher, yeah. These are the ones
that, you know, pose the biggest threats, wind
obviously, but also often catastrophic storm
surge and really intense rainfall. Got it. So
that's the baseline, the historical average.
Now for the main event, what are the big forecasts
saying? for 2025. What's the headline? OK, the
main forecast we often look to first is from
NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
and their latest outlook points pretty strongly
toward an above normal season this year. Above
normal. OK, that definitely gets your attention.
How confident are they feeling about that prediction?
They're putting a 70 percent confidence level
on their forecast ranges. Specifically, they're
saying there's a 60 percent chance the season
will be above normal. 60 percent. And the chances
for near normal or below normal. Much lower.
A 30 % chance of an air normal season and just
a 10 % chance of below normal season. The odds
are definitely tilted towards active. Okay. And
what about the actual numbers? What ranges are
they forecasting for storms? Their forecast is
for 13 to 19 total named storms this season.
13 to 19 and hurricanes within that. Right. Out
of those, they expect six to 10 to become hurricanes.
Six to 10. And the majors, the cat threes and
higher. They're forecasting three to five major
hurricanes. Hmm. Three to five majors. Well,
it's a range, but the upper end is definitely
concerning. How does this line up with other
forecasts like, say, Colorado State University?
I know they put one out earlier. Yeah, good point.
CSU's April forecast, for instance, gave more
specific numbers. Seventeen named storms, nine
hurricanes, four major hurricanes. So pretty
similar ballpark, but NOAA gives the range. Exactly.
NOAA's approach is to provide those ranges because
Honestly, there's always uncertainty in these
long -range seasonal outlooks. CSU and some others
give their single best estimate. Both are valuable
ways to look at it. Okay, but the overall message
seems clear. The consensus is leaning towards
an active above -normal season. So why? What
are the main climate factors pushing the forecast
in that direction? Right, there are several key
factors kind of aligning this year. One of the
big ones is what's happening, or rather not happening,
in the Pacific Ocean with Inso, El Nino, and
La Nina. Okay, so where are we with Inso? We
are currently in an ENSO neutral phase. So neither
El Nino nor La Nina is really in charge right
now. Neutral. Now I remember El Nino usually
means fewer Atlantic hurricanes, right? Because
of wind shear. That's generally true. Yeah. Strong
El Nino tends to increase upper level wind shear
over the Atlantic, which basically tears developing
storms apart. La Nina, on the other hand, often
reduces shear helping storms. So if it's neutral,
does that mean shear isn't a major factor either
way? Well, it means that dominant Ienso influence
isn't there, which actually makes the forecast
a bit trickier because it allows other factors
to potentially play a bigger role in how the
season shapes up. Ah, OK. So the absence of El
Niño or La Niña opens the door for other conditions
to dominate. What are those conditions looking
like? Well, the big one is the Atlantic Ocean
itself. The water temperatures across most of
the basin are warmer than average. And warm water
is hurricane fuel. Exactly. It provides the heat
energy storms need to form and intensify. Now,
there is an interesting wrinkle this year. Oh,
what's that? While the basin is warm overall.
The specific area known as the main development
region, the stretch between Africa and the Caribbean
where a lot of powerful storms get started, is
actually running a bit cooler than it was at
this exact time last year. Maybe around two degrees
Fahrenheit cooler. Huh. Compared to the record
heat we saw going into last season, that sounds
like a pretty noticeable difference in that key
spot. It is noticeable, and it's definitely something
forecasters are watching. It introduces a bit
of uncertainty compared to last year's setup.
Could that cooler pocket dampen things down significantly?
It's possible. It could have some effect. But
the overall basin heat content is still quite
high. And things like weaker trade winds could
allow that cooler surface water to mix out and
warmer water to come up fairly quickly. So the
prevailing thought is still that the warm Atlantic
is a major factor favoring activity. Okay, so
warm water overall is still a big plus for storms.
What else? You mentioned wind shear earlier.
Right. Besides the ENSO influence, the expectation
is for generally weak wind shear across the tropical
Atlantic this season. So less disruption for
developing storms. They can kind of... build
up without getting knocked over by strong upper
level winds. Precisely. Weak shear lets the storm
structure stay organized and allows it to strengthen
more readily. Warm water, weak shear, anything
else? One more piece is the potential for an
active West African monsoon. Ah, the monsoon.
How does that connect? Well, the monsoon generates
tropical waves, disturbances that move off the
coast of Africa out over the Atlantic. And these
waves are often the seeds for some of the strongest,
longest -lived hurricanes we see. An active monsoon
means more potential seeds. So putting it all
together, neutral ENSO not getting in the way,
generally warm ocean fuel, weak shear allowing
storms to grow, maybe more seeds coming off Africa,
it sounds like. Well, it sounds like the ingredients
are there. Yeah, it points towards what meteorologists
have been calling a high activity era in the
Atlantic continuing. This era is marked by that
higher ocean heat content and atmospheric patterns
like weaker trade winds that just generally favor
storm formation and intensification. OK, that.
paints a pretty clear picture for why the forecast
is above normal. But you mentioned uncertainty
earlier, especially with the neutral ENSO. What
are some of those question marks that could still
sway how the season actually unfolds? That's
a really important point. These forecasts are
about probabilities, not certainties. And ENSO
neutral years, historically, are kind of wild
cards. How so? We've seen ENSO neutral years
produce everything from very quiet hurricane
seasons to extremely active ones. There's just
a wider range of possibilities compared to when
you have a strong El Nino suppressing things
or a strong La Nina boosting things. So that
neutral state adds inherent unpredictability.
And that slightly cooler spot in the main development
region compared to last year that fits into the
uncertainty too. It definitely does. It's a difference
from the setup we saw heading into 2024 when
that region was exceptionally warm. It doesn't
cancel out the overall warmth, but it's a nuance,
a variable that forecasters are tracking. Any
other unexpected factors popping up? Well, there's
an interesting global observation. As of late
May, when these forecasts were coming out, the
entire Northern Hemisphere hadn't actually seen
its first storm reach tropical storm strength
yet this year. Really? None at all by late May.
Is that late? It's quite late compared to the
average climatology. And what's kind of intriguing
is that a similar slow start globally happened
in 2024 as well. And that did factor into some
forecast thinking then, how this current global
quiet period resolves. Well, it adds another
layer of complexity. So it's like the whole climate
system is interconnected in ways we're still
figuring out, and little anomalies can pop up.
Exactly. Experts often mention lesser understood
climate variables around the globe that also
play a role. It's a complex dance. OK, so we
have this forecast. Likely above normal, backed
by warm water and weak shear, but with paviots
around the neutral ESO, that specific cooler
patch of water compared to last year, and maybe
some global weirdness. What does this whole picture
mean for you, the listener? Why should someone
inland pay close attention? This is really the
bottom line. These seasonal outlooks give us
the big picture, but preparedness is personal.
And storms like Helene and Debbie last year drove
home the point that devastating impacts, especially
inland flooding, can happen hundreds of miles
from where the storm makes landfall. Yeah, thinking
you're safe just because you're not on the beach.
That's just not realistic anymore, is it? Not
at all. So given this forecast, what are the
agencies like NOAA and the National Weather Service
doing to improve warnings and help people get
ready this year? Are there new tools or improvements
coming online? Yes. They're constantly working
on it. They've stated they have, and I quote,
never had more advanced models and warning systems
in place. That's good to hear. What specifically?
Are the forecast models getting better? They
are. They're continuing to upgrade their main
hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast
System, or HAFS. The goal this year is another
5 % improvement in accuracy for both the storm's
track and its intensity. Even a small improvement
there can make a big difference in lead time,
I imagine. Absolutely. And speaking of lead time,
they're also extending how far out they can issue
certain warnings. Oh, like what? The National
Hurricane Center can now issue advisories like
watches and warnings up to 72 hours before life
-threatening storm surge or tropical storm force
winds are expected to reach land. 72 hours. Three
days notice for those specific impacts. That's
huge for planning. It really is a significant
increase in potential warning time. And their
longer range outlook, the Global Tropical Hazards
Outlook, now goes out three weeks instead of
two, giving an even earlier heads up about potential
development areas globally. Are they doing anything
different with how they communicate the warnings,
making them clearer? Yes, several things there.
They're introducing Spanish language text for
key products like the tropical weather outlook
and public advisories, which is great for reaching
more people. That's important. And they're continuing
with that experimental forecast cone graphic
that shows the inland watches and warnings for
the U .S. I remember seeing that last year, showing
the warnings extending way inland. Any changes
to that? Yeah, a useful tweak this year. The
experimental cone will specifically highlight
areas that are under both a hurricane watch and
a tropical storm warning at the same time. Helps
clarify potentially confusing overlapping zones.
Okay, that makes sense. They're also making a
point to provide a dedicated rip current risk
map whenever there's an active tropical system.
Rip currents. Why the special focus there? Because
swells from a hurricane far out at sea can create
dangerous rip currents along coasts days before
the storm gets close. Or even if the storm never
hits land at all, it's a hidden danger tied to
these systems. That's a really good point. What
about new tech? Are they using any new gadgets
to study these storms? They are. They're using
an experimental radar system called ROARS on
the P -3 Hurricane Hunter planes. It actually
scans downward from the aircraft. Downward? What
does it measure? It collects data on the ocean
waves and, crucially, the wind structure right
near the sea surface inside the storm. That's
really hard data to get otherwise and helps improve
intensity forecasts. Wow. Getting data right
down at the ocean surface. And for the inland
flood threat. They have an experimental tool
called the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal.
Basically, it's a user -friendly way to see forecasts
for heavy rain and potential flash flooding up
to three days out. So helping people visualize
that rainfall threat, like what we saw with Helene.
Exactly. Trying to give more specific, actionable
information on that inland flood risk. OK, so.
Lots of advancements in the background, better
models, longer lead times, clearer communication,
new tech. But bringing it back to the listener,
what's the number one takeaway message from the
experts right now? It's simple and it's consistent.
Be prepared. This forecast, leaning above normal,
is your signal to take action now. It's not about
predicting exactly where storms will hit. Right.
It's about the overall potential for the season.
Exactly. So make your plan. Know your evacuation
zone if you're in one. Gather your supplies.
Do it now before a storm is even on the map,
let alone threatening your area. Don't wait.
Preparation today means less panic tomorrow.
And just to reiterate, this forecast covers the
whole six -month season across the entire Atlantic
basin. It doesn't tell us about specific landfalls.
Correct. And NOAA will issue an updated forecast
in early August, just before we hit the typical
peak of the season. So we'll see if anything
is changed by that. OK, so to sum up, experts
are predicting an above average 2025 Atlantic
hurricane season. Key drivers are the warm Atlantic
waters and likely weak wind shear, though the
neutral ENSO phase adds a layer of uncertainty.
And there are those other nuances like. the MDR
attempts compared to last year and the slow global
start. Right. But importantly, forecasting tools
and warning systems are improving, giving potentially
more lead time. The crucial message, though,
remains personal preparedness. That's the essence
of it for this stage of the season. So here's
something to think about as we wrap up. When
you hear about these complex global factors influencing
our local hurricane season and you remember how
impacts like flooding can reach so far inland.
How does that change the way you personally think
about being prepared? Does it make you feel more
connected maybe to these large -scale weather
systems? It certainly highlights how interconnected
everything is, doesn't it? Local weather isn't
always just local. Absolutely. Well you can find
more great weather insights and the Meteorology
Matters podcast playlist by following meteorologist
Rob Jones. He's on Instagram as meteorologist.
Check him out on TikTok as TV meteorologist and
definitely subscribe on YouTube at Rob Jones
Hurricane. Thanks for tuning in for this look
at the season ahead. Stay informed, everyone,
and please stay prepared.