WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.759 OK, here we go again. That time of year rolls 00:00:02.759 --> 00:00:05.519 around, and everyone starts wondering, what's 00:00:05.519 --> 00:00:07.759 the Atlantic hurricane season going to bring 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:10.140 this time? Yeah, there's always that mix, isn't 00:00:10.140 --> 00:00:12.699 there? A bit of anticipation, maybe a little 00:00:12.699 --> 00:00:16.699 bit of concern, too. Definitely concern. And 00:00:16.699 --> 00:00:19.660 last year was such a stark reminder that it's 00:00:19.660 --> 00:00:22.739 not just the coast, the inland flooding that 00:00:22.739 --> 00:00:25.100 can reach really far. Absolutely. Those impacts 00:00:25.100 --> 00:00:27.440 go way beyond the immediate shoreline. That's 00:00:27.440 --> 00:00:28.980 something we really need to keep in mind. It 00:00:28.980 --> 00:00:31.600 really is. So welcome back, everyone, to the 00:00:31.600 --> 00:00:34.140 Meteorology Matters podcast. Today we are going 00:00:34.140 --> 00:00:37.090 to get right into it. The expert predictions, 00:00:37.210 --> 00:00:40.689 the latest ones, for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane 00:00:40.689 --> 00:00:43.390 season. We've looked at the outlooks, and yeah, 00:00:43.530 --> 00:00:45.649 the goal today is to really unpack what matters 00:00:45.649 --> 00:00:47.570 most. To help you understand what you need to 00:00:47.570 --> 00:00:50.130 know as we head into the season, it's about getting 00:00:50.130 --> 00:00:52.130 the key takeaways. Cutting through the noise, 00:00:52.509 --> 00:00:53.649 basically. It's focusing on what the science 00:00:53.649 --> 00:00:56.170 is telling us right now. Okay, so let's kick 00:00:56.170 --> 00:00:58.490 things off with the basics, just a quick refresher. 00:00:59.130 --> 00:01:01.369 When does the Atlantic season officially run? 00:01:01.560 --> 00:01:03.299 All right, the official dates haven't changed. 00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:06.099 June 1st right through November 30th. That's 00:01:06.099 --> 00:01:08.340 the main window we watch covers the Atlantic, 00:01:08.700 --> 00:01:12.019 Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, the whole basin. 00:01:12.319 --> 00:01:14.879 Exactly. That six month period is when we see 00:01:14.879 --> 00:01:17.680 the vast majority of activity. And historically 00:01:17.680 --> 00:01:20.900 speaking, what does a sort of average or typical 00:01:20.900 --> 00:01:23.760 season look like in terms of storm numbers? Well, 00:01:23.760 --> 00:01:25.260 if you look at the long -term average, you're 00:01:25.260 --> 00:01:27.980 typically talking about 14 named storms. Okay, 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.760 14. And how many of those usually become hurricanes? 00:01:31.140 --> 00:01:33.620 Usually around seven of those reach hurricane 00:01:33.620 --> 00:01:35.560 strength. And then out of those seven, about 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:38.500 three become major hurricanes. Right, major hurricanes. 00:01:38.500 --> 00:01:40.700 Let's define that quickly. What pushes a storm 00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:43.159 into that major category? Good question. A major 00:01:43.159 --> 00:01:45.780 hurricane is category three, four, or five on 00:01:45.780 --> 00:01:49.390 the Saffron So that means winds, what, over 110 00:01:49.390 --> 00:01:52.230 miles per hour? Sustained winds of 111 miles 00:01:52.230 --> 00:01:54.230 per hour or higher, yeah. These are the ones 00:01:54.230 --> 00:01:56.250 that, you know, pose the biggest threats, wind 00:01:56.250 --> 00:01:59.209 obviously, but also often catastrophic storm 00:01:59.209 --> 00:02:02.849 surge and really intense rainfall. Got it. So 00:02:02.849 --> 00:02:04.849 that's the baseline, the historical average. 00:02:05.750 --> 00:02:09.009 Now for the main event, what are the big forecasts 00:02:09.009 --> 00:02:12.629 saying? for 2025. What's the headline? OK, the 00:02:12.629 --> 00:02:14.789 main forecast we often look to first is from 00:02:14.789 --> 00:02:18.129 NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:02:18.490 --> 00:02:20.610 and their latest outlook points pretty strongly 00:02:20.610 --> 00:02:23.509 toward an above normal season this year. Above 00:02:23.509 --> 00:02:25.389 normal. OK, that definitely gets your attention. 00:02:25.710 --> 00:02:27.770 How confident are they feeling about that prediction? 00:02:27.969 --> 00:02:30.330 They're putting a 70 percent confidence level 00:02:30.330 --> 00:02:32.870 on their forecast ranges. Specifically, they're 00:02:32.870 --> 00:02:34.610 saying there's a 60 percent chance the season 00:02:34.610 --> 00:02:37.689 will be above normal. 60 percent. And the chances 00:02:37.689 --> 00:02:40.289 for near normal or below normal. Much lower. 00:02:41.270 --> 00:02:43.629 A 30 % chance of an air normal season and just 00:02:43.629 --> 00:02:46.330 a 10 % chance of below normal season. The odds 00:02:46.330 --> 00:02:48.289 are definitely tilted towards active. Okay. And 00:02:48.289 --> 00:02:50.169 what about the actual numbers? What ranges are 00:02:50.169 --> 00:02:52.469 they forecasting for storms? Their forecast is 00:02:52.469 --> 00:02:56.229 for 13 to 19 total named storms this season. 00:02:56.469 --> 00:02:59.629 13 to 19 and hurricanes within that. Right. Out 00:02:59.629 --> 00:03:02.210 of those, they expect six to 10 to become hurricanes. 00:03:02.330 --> 00:03:05.310 Six to 10. And the majors, the cat threes and 00:03:05.310 --> 00:03:07.430 higher. They're forecasting three to five major 00:03:07.430 --> 00:03:10.860 hurricanes. Hmm. Three to five majors. Well, 00:03:11.000 --> 00:03:12.580 it's a range, but the upper end is definitely 00:03:12.580 --> 00:03:15.199 concerning. How does this line up with other 00:03:15.199 --> 00:03:17.659 forecasts like, say, Colorado State University? 00:03:17.780 --> 00:03:19.780 I know they put one out earlier. Yeah, good point. 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:23.439 CSU's April forecast, for instance, gave more 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:26.740 specific numbers. Seventeen named storms, nine 00:03:26.740 --> 00:03:29.360 hurricanes, four major hurricanes. So pretty 00:03:29.360 --> 00:03:32.099 similar ballpark, but NOAA gives the range. Exactly. 00:03:32.539 --> 00:03:34.800 NOAA's approach is to provide those ranges because 00:03:35.120 --> 00:03:36.979 Honestly, there's always uncertainty in these 00:03:36.979 --> 00:03:40.000 long -range seasonal outlooks. CSU and some others 00:03:40.000 --> 00:03:42.900 give their single best estimate. Both are valuable 00:03:42.900 --> 00:03:45.580 ways to look at it. Okay, but the overall message 00:03:45.580 --> 00:03:48.180 seems clear. The consensus is leaning towards 00:03:48.180 --> 00:03:51.990 an active above -normal season. So why? What 00:03:51.990 --> 00:03:54.550 are the main climate factors pushing the forecast 00:03:54.550 --> 00:03:56.629 in that direction? Right, there are several key 00:03:56.629 --> 00:03:58.469 factors kind of aligning this year. One of the 00:03:58.469 --> 00:04:00.449 big ones is what's happening, or rather not happening, 00:04:00.590 --> 00:04:03.530 in the Pacific Ocean with Inso, El Nino, and 00:04:03.530 --> 00:04:06.069 La Nina. Okay, so where are we with Inso? We 00:04:06.069 --> 00:04:09.409 are currently in an ENSO neutral phase. So neither 00:04:09.409 --> 00:04:11.949 El Nino nor La Nina is really in charge right 00:04:11.949 --> 00:04:14.990 now. Neutral. Now I remember El Nino usually 00:04:14.990 --> 00:04:18.149 means fewer Atlantic hurricanes, right? Because 00:04:18.149 --> 00:04:21.029 of wind shear. That's generally true. Yeah. Strong 00:04:21.029 --> 00:04:24.009 El Nino tends to increase upper level wind shear 00:04:24.009 --> 00:04:26.449 over the Atlantic, which basically tears developing 00:04:26.449 --> 00:04:30.129 storms apart. La Nina, on the other hand, often 00:04:30.129 --> 00:04:33.750 reduces shear helping storms. So if it's neutral, 00:04:34.449 --> 00:04:37.689 does that mean shear isn't a major factor either 00:04:37.689 --> 00:04:40.250 way? Well, it means that dominant Ienso influence 00:04:40.250 --> 00:04:43.009 isn't there, which actually makes the forecast 00:04:43.009 --> 00:04:45.470 a bit trickier because it allows other factors 00:04:45.470 --> 00:04:47.990 to potentially play a bigger role in how the 00:04:47.990 --> 00:04:51.720 season shapes up. Ah, OK. So the absence of El 00:04:51.720 --> 00:04:55.060 Niño or La Niña opens the door for other conditions 00:04:55.060 --> 00:04:56.980 to dominate. What are those conditions looking 00:04:56.980 --> 00:04:58.779 like? Well, the big one is the Atlantic Ocean 00:04:58.779 --> 00:05:01.060 itself. The water temperatures across most of 00:05:01.060 --> 00:05:03.220 the basin are warmer than average. And warm water 00:05:03.220 --> 00:05:06.100 is hurricane fuel. Exactly. It provides the heat 00:05:06.100 --> 00:05:08.819 energy storms need to form and intensify. Now, 00:05:08.819 --> 00:05:10.860 there is an interesting wrinkle this year. Oh, 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:13.740 what's that? While the basin is warm overall. 00:05:13.980 --> 00:05:16.819 The specific area known as the main development 00:05:16.819 --> 00:05:19.300 region, the stretch between Africa and the Caribbean 00:05:19.300 --> 00:05:22.019 where a lot of powerful storms get started, is 00:05:22.019 --> 00:05:24.199 actually running a bit cooler than it was at 00:05:24.199 --> 00:05:27.480 this exact time last year. Maybe around two degrees 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:30.079 Fahrenheit cooler. Huh. Compared to the record 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:32.860 heat we saw going into last season, that sounds 00:05:32.860 --> 00:05:34.980 like a pretty noticeable difference in that key 00:05:34.980 --> 00:05:37.360 spot. It is noticeable, and it's definitely something 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:39.959 forecasters are watching. It introduces a bit 00:05:39.959 --> 00:05:42.660 of uncertainty compared to last year's setup. 00:05:42.839 --> 00:05:47.100 Could that cooler pocket dampen things down significantly? 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:49.399 It's possible. It could have some effect. But 00:05:49.399 --> 00:05:51.740 the overall basin heat content is still quite 00:05:51.740 --> 00:05:54.040 high. And things like weaker trade winds could 00:05:54.040 --> 00:05:56.800 allow that cooler surface water to mix out and 00:05:56.800 --> 00:05:59.490 warmer water to come up fairly quickly. So the 00:05:59.490 --> 00:06:01.550 prevailing thought is still that the warm Atlantic 00:06:01.550 --> 00:06:04.470 is a major factor favoring activity. Okay, so 00:06:04.470 --> 00:06:06.850 warm water overall is still a big plus for storms. 00:06:07.310 --> 00:06:08.870 What else? You mentioned wind shear earlier. 00:06:09.410 --> 00:06:12.449 Right. Besides the ENSO influence, the expectation 00:06:12.449 --> 00:06:15.449 is for generally weak wind shear across the tropical 00:06:15.449 --> 00:06:18.310 Atlantic this season. So less disruption for 00:06:18.310 --> 00:06:20.259 developing storms. They can kind of... build 00:06:20.259 --> 00:06:22.879 up without getting knocked over by strong upper 00:06:22.879 --> 00:06:26.560 level winds. Precisely. Weak shear lets the storm 00:06:26.560 --> 00:06:29.160 structure stay organized and allows it to strengthen 00:06:29.160 --> 00:06:32.439 more readily. Warm water, weak shear, anything 00:06:32.439 --> 00:06:35.339 else? One more piece is the potential for an 00:06:35.339 --> 00:06:39.259 active West African monsoon. Ah, the monsoon. 00:06:39.339 --> 00:06:41.519 How does that connect? Well, the monsoon generates 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:43.959 tropical waves, disturbances that move off the 00:06:43.959 --> 00:06:46.500 coast of Africa out over the Atlantic. And these 00:06:46.500 --> 00:06:49.019 waves are often the seeds for some of the strongest, 00:06:49.220 --> 00:06:52.519 longest -lived hurricanes we see. An active monsoon 00:06:52.519 --> 00:06:54.819 means more potential seeds. So putting it all 00:06:54.819 --> 00:06:57.220 together, neutral ENSO not getting in the way, 00:06:57.579 --> 00:07:00.240 generally warm ocean fuel, weak shear allowing 00:07:00.240 --> 00:07:03.319 storms to grow, maybe more seeds coming off Africa, 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:05.060 it sounds like. Well, it sounds like the ingredients 00:07:05.060 --> 00:07:07.040 are there. Yeah, it points towards what meteorologists 00:07:07.040 --> 00:07:09.920 have been calling a high activity era in the 00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:12.699 Atlantic continuing. This era is marked by that 00:07:12.699 --> 00:07:15.300 higher ocean heat content and atmospheric patterns 00:07:15.300 --> 00:07:17.800 like weaker trade winds that just generally favor 00:07:17.800 --> 00:07:20.600 storm formation and intensification. OK, that. 00:07:20.800 --> 00:07:23.500 paints a pretty clear picture for why the forecast 00:07:23.500 --> 00:07:26.180 is above normal. But you mentioned uncertainty 00:07:26.180 --> 00:07:29.600 earlier, especially with the neutral ENSO. What 00:07:29.600 --> 00:07:31.639 are some of those question marks that could still 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:34.800 sway how the season actually unfolds? That's 00:07:34.800 --> 00:07:37.160 a really important point. These forecasts are 00:07:37.160 --> 00:07:40.600 about probabilities, not certainties. And ENSO 00:07:40.600 --> 00:07:43.000 neutral years, historically, are kind of wild 00:07:43.000 --> 00:07:46.100 cards. How so? We've seen ENSO neutral years 00:07:46.100 --> 00:07:49.490 produce everything from very quiet hurricane 00:07:49.490 --> 00:07:52.670 seasons to extremely active ones. There's just 00:07:52.670 --> 00:07:54.930 a wider range of possibilities compared to when 00:07:54.930 --> 00:07:56.990 you have a strong El Nino suppressing things 00:07:56.990 --> 00:08:00.089 or a strong La Nina boosting things. So that 00:08:00.089 --> 00:08:02.389 neutral state adds inherent unpredictability. 00:08:02.670 --> 00:08:05.129 And that slightly cooler spot in the main development 00:08:05.129 --> 00:08:07.089 region compared to last year that fits into the 00:08:07.089 --> 00:08:09.509 uncertainty too. It definitely does. It's a difference 00:08:09.509 --> 00:08:12.430 from the setup we saw heading into 2024 when 00:08:12.430 --> 00:08:14.509 that region was exceptionally warm. It doesn't 00:08:14.509 --> 00:08:17.209 cancel out the overall warmth, but it's a nuance, 00:08:17.250 --> 00:08:20.050 a variable that forecasters are tracking. Any 00:08:20.050 --> 00:08:22.790 other unexpected factors popping up? Well, there's 00:08:22.790 --> 00:08:25.779 an interesting global observation. As of late 00:08:25.779 --> 00:08:28.360 May, when these forecasts were coming out, the 00:08:28.360 --> 00:08:30.480 entire Northern Hemisphere hadn't actually seen 00:08:30.480 --> 00:08:33.000 its first storm reach tropical storm strength 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:35.460 yet this year. Really? None at all by late May. 00:08:35.700 --> 00:08:37.980 Is that late? It's quite late compared to the 00:08:37.980 --> 00:08:40.360 average climatology. And what's kind of intriguing 00:08:40.360 --> 00:08:43.860 is that a similar slow start globally happened 00:08:43.860 --> 00:08:47.159 in 2024 as well. And that did factor into some 00:08:47.159 --> 00:08:50.259 forecast thinking then, how this current global 00:08:50.259 --> 00:08:52.899 quiet period resolves. Well, it adds another 00:08:52.899 --> 00:08:55.250 layer of complexity. So it's like the whole climate 00:08:55.250 --> 00:08:57.129 system is interconnected in ways we're still 00:08:57.129 --> 00:08:59.450 figuring out, and little anomalies can pop up. 00:08:59.870 --> 00:09:02.870 Exactly. Experts often mention lesser understood 00:09:02.870 --> 00:09:05.370 climate variables around the globe that also 00:09:05.370 --> 00:09:07.850 play a role. It's a complex dance. OK, so we 00:09:07.850 --> 00:09:10.629 have this forecast. Likely above normal, backed 00:09:10.629 --> 00:09:13.350 by warm water and weak shear, but with paviots 00:09:13.350 --> 00:09:16.029 around the neutral ESO, that specific cooler 00:09:16.029 --> 00:09:18.210 patch of water compared to last year, and maybe 00:09:18.210 --> 00:09:20.830 some global weirdness. What does this whole picture 00:09:20.830 --> 00:09:23.230 mean for you, the listener? Why should someone 00:09:23.230 --> 00:09:25.690 inland pay close attention? This is really the 00:09:25.690 --> 00:09:29.110 bottom line. These seasonal outlooks give us 00:09:29.110 --> 00:09:32.149 the big picture, but preparedness is personal. 00:09:33.029 --> 00:09:35.669 And storms like Helene and Debbie last year drove 00:09:35.669 --> 00:09:38.830 home the point that devastating impacts, especially 00:09:38.830 --> 00:09:41.509 inland flooding, can happen hundreds of miles 00:09:41.509 --> 00:09:43.789 from where the storm makes landfall. Yeah, thinking 00:09:43.789 --> 00:09:46.230 you're safe just because you're not on the beach. 00:09:46.730 --> 00:09:49.100 That's just not realistic anymore, is it? Not 00:09:49.100 --> 00:09:52.259 at all. So given this forecast, what are the 00:09:52.259 --> 00:09:54.340 agencies like NOAA and the National Weather Service 00:09:54.340 --> 00:09:57.740 doing to improve warnings and help people get 00:09:57.740 --> 00:09:59.860 ready this year? Are there new tools or improvements 00:09:59.860 --> 00:10:02.019 coming online? Yes. They're constantly working 00:10:02.019 --> 00:10:04.139 on it. They've stated they have, and I quote, 00:10:04.580 --> 00:10:07.519 never had more advanced models and warning systems 00:10:07.519 --> 00:10:09.659 in place. That's good to hear. What specifically? 00:10:09.700 --> 00:10:11.879 Are the forecast models getting better? They 00:10:11.879 --> 00:10:14.259 are. They're continuing to upgrade their main 00:10:14.259 --> 00:10:16.740 hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast 00:10:16.740 --> 00:10:20.470 System, or HAFS. The goal this year is another 00:10:20.470 --> 00:10:24.350 5 % improvement in accuracy for both the storm's 00:10:24.350 --> 00:10:26.710 track and its intensity. Even a small improvement 00:10:26.710 --> 00:10:28.889 there can make a big difference in lead time, 00:10:29.009 --> 00:10:32.250 I imagine. Absolutely. And speaking of lead time, 00:10:32.470 --> 00:10:35.289 they're also extending how far out they can issue 00:10:35.289 --> 00:10:38.389 certain warnings. Oh, like what? The National 00:10:38.389 --> 00:10:40.710 Hurricane Center can now issue advisories like 00:10:40.710 --> 00:10:44.230 watches and warnings up to 72 hours before life 00:10:44.230 --> 00:10:47.090 -threatening storm surge or tropical storm force 00:10:47.090 --> 00:10:51.629 winds are expected to reach land. 72 hours. Three 00:10:51.629 --> 00:10:55.029 days notice for those specific impacts. That's 00:10:55.029 --> 00:10:57.690 huge for planning. It really is a significant 00:10:57.690 --> 00:11:00.330 increase in potential warning time. And their 00:11:00.330 --> 00:11:02.990 longer range outlook, the Global Tropical Hazards 00:11:02.990 --> 00:11:06.190 Outlook, now goes out three weeks instead of 00:11:06.190 --> 00:11:09.250 two, giving an even earlier heads up about potential 00:11:09.250 --> 00:11:11.370 development areas globally. Are they doing anything 00:11:11.370 --> 00:11:13.370 different with how they communicate the warnings, 00:11:13.669 --> 00:11:16.289 making them clearer? Yes, several things there. 00:11:16.370 --> 00:11:18.870 They're introducing Spanish language text for 00:11:18.870 --> 00:11:20.970 key products like the tropical weather outlook 00:11:20.970 --> 00:11:23.509 and public advisories, which is great for reaching 00:11:23.509 --> 00:11:25.429 more people. That's important. And they're continuing 00:11:25.429 --> 00:11:27.830 with that experimental forecast cone graphic 00:11:27.830 --> 00:11:30.350 that shows the inland watches and warnings for 00:11:30.350 --> 00:11:32.570 the U .S. I remember seeing that last year, showing 00:11:32.570 --> 00:11:35.129 the warnings extending way inland. Any changes 00:11:35.129 --> 00:11:38.830 to that? Yeah, a useful tweak this year. The 00:11:38.830 --> 00:11:41.169 experimental cone will specifically highlight 00:11:41.169 --> 00:11:44.070 areas that are under both a hurricane watch and 00:11:44.070 --> 00:11:46.789 a tropical storm warning at the same time. Helps 00:11:46.789 --> 00:11:49.110 clarify potentially confusing overlapping zones. 00:11:49.370 --> 00:11:51.149 Okay, that makes sense. They're also making a 00:11:51.149 --> 00:11:54.620 point to provide a dedicated rip current risk 00:11:54.620 --> 00:11:56.980 map whenever there's an active tropical system. 00:11:57.120 --> 00:12:00.220 Rip currents. Why the special focus there? Because 00:12:00.220 --> 00:12:03.480 swells from a hurricane far out at sea can create 00:12:03.480 --> 00:12:06.600 dangerous rip currents along coasts days before 00:12:06.600 --> 00:12:09.019 the storm gets close. Or even if the storm never 00:12:09.019 --> 00:12:11.659 hits land at all, it's a hidden danger tied to 00:12:11.659 --> 00:12:13.610 these systems. That's a really good point. What 00:12:13.610 --> 00:12:16.029 about new tech? Are they using any new gadgets 00:12:16.029 --> 00:12:18.490 to study these storms? They are. They're using 00:12:18.490 --> 00:12:21.190 an experimental radar system called ROARS on 00:12:21.190 --> 00:12:23.549 the P -3 Hurricane Hunter planes. It actually 00:12:23.549 --> 00:12:26.230 scans downward from the aircraft. Downward? What 00:12:26.230 --> 00:12:28.269 does it measure? It collects data on the ocean 00:12:28.269 --> 00:12:30.570 waves and, crucially, the wind structure right 00:12:30.570 --> 00:12:33.309 near the sea surface inside the storm. That's 00:12:33.309 --> 00:12:35.690 really hard data to get otherwise and helps improve 00:12:35.690 --> 00:12:38.509 intensity forecasts. Wow. Getting data right 00:12:38.509 --> 00:12:41.029 down at the ocean surface. And for the inland 00:12:41.029 --> 00:12:42.889 flood threat. They have an experimental tool 00:12:42.889 --> 00:12:45.070 called the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal. 00:12:46.509 --> 00:12:48.909 Basically, it's a user -friendly way to see forecasts 00:12:48.909 --> 00:12:51.830 for heavy rain and potential flash flooding up 00:12:51.830 --> 00:12:54.769 to three days out. So helping people visualize 00:12:54.769 --> 00:12:57.330 that rainfall threat, like what we saw with Helene. 00:12:57.549 --> 00:12:59.990 Exactly. Trying to give more specific, actionable 00:12:59.990 --> 00:13:02.769 information on that inland flood risk. OK, so. 00:13:02.919 --> 00:13:05.360 Lots of advancements in the background, better 00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:08.580 models, longer lead times, clearer communication, 00:13:09.139 --> 00:13:11.480 new tech. But bringing it back to the listener, 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:13.960 what's the number one takeaway message from the 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:16.960 experts right now? It's simple and it's consistent. 00:13:17.259 --> 00:13:20.440 Be prepared. This forecast, leaning above normal, 00:13:20.779 --> 00:13:23.419 is your signal to take action now. It's not about 00:13:23.419 --> 00:13:25.399 predicting exactly where storms will hit. Right. 00:13:25.399 --> 00:13:27.159 It's about the overall potential for the season. 00:13:27.419 --> 00:13:30.110 Exactly. So make your plan. Know your evacuation 00:13:30.110 --> 00:13:32.190 zone if you're in one. Gather your supplies. 00:13:32.490 --> 00:13:34.669 Do it now before a storm is even on the map, 00:13:34.870 --> 00:13:37.149 let alone threatening your area. Don't wait. 00:13:37.450 --> 00:13:39.629 Preparation today means less panic tomorrow. 00:13:40.129 --> 00:13:42.629 And just to reiterate, this forecast covers the 00:13:42.629 --> 00:13:44.970 whole six -month season across the entire Atlantic 00:13:44.970 --> 00:13:47.929 basin. It doesn't tell us about specific landfalls. 00:13:48.389 --> 00:13:50.850 Correct. And NOAA will issue an updated forecast 00:13:50.850 --> 00:13:53.710 in early August, just before we hit the typical 00:13:53.710 --> 00:13:55.169 peak of the season. So we'll see if anything 00:13:55.169 --> 00:13:58.029 is changed by that. OK, so to sum up, experts 00:13:58.029 --> 00:14:01.429 are predicting an above average 2025 Atlantic 00:14:01.429 --> 00:14:04.850 hurricane season. Key drivers are the warm Atlantic 00:14:04.850 --> 00:14:08.409 waters and likely weak wind shear, though the 00:14:08.409 --> 00:14:11.370 neutral ENSO phase adds a layer of uncertainty. 00:14:11.690 --> 00:14:14.179 And there are those other nuances like. the MDR 00:14:14.179 --> 00:14:17.259 attempts compared to last year and the slow global 00:14:17.259 --> 00:14:20.320 start. Right. But importantly, forecasting tools 00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:22.980 and warning systems are improving, giving potentially 00:14:22.980 --> 00:14:25.220 more lead time. The crucial message, though, 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:27.679 remains personal preparedness. That's the essence 00:14:27.679 --> 00:14:29.820 of it for this stage of the season. So here's 00:14:29.820 --> 00:14:31.639 something to think about as we wrap up. When 00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:34.539 you hear about these complex global factors influencing 00:14:34.539 --> 00:14:37.259 our local hurricane season and you remember how 00:14:37.259 --> 00:14:39.799 impacts like flooding can reach so far inland. 00:14:40.649 --> 00:14:43.049 How does that change the way you personally think 00:14:43.049 --> 00:14:45.409 about being prepared? Does it make you feel more 00:14:45.409 --> 00:14:47.529 connected maybe to these large -scale weather 00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:50.029 systems? It certainly highlights how interconnected 00:14:50.029 --> 00:14:52.090 everything is, doesn't it? Local weather isn't 00:14:52.090 --> 00:14:55.009 always just local. Absolutely. Well you can find 00:14:55.009 --> 00:14:57.429 more great weather insights and the Meteorology 00:14:57.429 --> 00:15:00.690 Matters podcast playlist by following meteorologist 00:15:00.690 --> 00:15:03.539 Rob Jones. He's on Instagram as meteorologist. 00:15:03.639 --> 00:15:06.700 Check him out on TikTok as TV meteorologist and 00:15:06.700 --> 00:15:08.840 definitely subscribe on YouTube at Rob Jones 00:15:08.840 --> 00:15:10.519 Hurricane. Thanks for tuning in for this look 00:15:10.519 --> 00:15:12.740 at the season ahead. Stay informed, everyone, 00:15:12.919 --> 00:15:14.259 and please stay prepared.