WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.500 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. Hurricane season 00:00:02.500 --> 00:00:05.879 is basically here. And today, we're looking at 00:00:05.879 --> 00:00:08.300 some pretty concerning reports coming out of 00:00:08.300 --> 00:00:10.019 the National Weather Service. It sounds like 00:00:10.019 --> 00:00:12.720 the agency is facing some significant staffing 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.640 challenges. Yeah. And for anyone who relies on 00:00:15.640 --> 00:00:17.379 weather forecasts, which is pretty much everyone, 00:00:17.980 --> 00:00:20.460 the NWS is fundamental. They're our first line 00:00:20.460 --> 00:00:24.039 of defense when storms gather. So any kind of 00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:26.260 internal turbulence like this, especially now, 00:00:26.739 --> 00:00:28.719 really needs a closer look. Absolutely. We're 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:31.940 hearing numbers like 155 job openings across 00:00:31.940 --> 00:00:34.079 the country. That feels like a big gap as we 00:00:34.079 --> 00:00:36.560 head into what could be an active season. And 00:00:36.560 --> 00:00:39.200 it's not just like entry level spots either. 00:00:39.280 --> 00:00:41.579 What's really striking is the range of positions. 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:44.600 We're talking late meteorologist roles, fair 00:00:44.600 --> 00:00:47.990 banks. Alaska, for instance, even the meteorologist 00:00:47.990 --> 00:00:50.030 in charge position in Lake Charles, Louisiana. 00:00:50.130 --> 00:00:52.350 Wow. Lake Charles. They know hurricanes all too 00:00:52.350 --> 00:00:54.689 well there. Exactly. And those local forecasters, 00:00:54.829 --> 00:00:56.549 they're the ones on the ground, right? Talking 00:00:56.549 --> 00:00:59.109 to mayors, emergency managers, translating the 00:00:59.109 --> 00:01:01.710 big picture forecast into, OK, what do we need 00:01:01.710 --> 00:01:04.310 to do right here, right now? That coordination 00:01:04.310 --> 00:01:07.209 seems vital. It absolutely is. It's about saving 00:01:07.209 --> 00:01:09.670 lives, protecting property. And it goes beyond 00:01:09.670 --> 00:01:11.930 the meteorologist, too. You need hydrologists. 00:01:12.120 --> 00:01:14.359 for flood warnings, a huge part of hurricane 00:01:14.359 --> 00:01:16.920 impacts. Right. And then there are the IT folks, 00:01:17.319 --> 00:01:19.420 the technicians keeping the radar and the computer 00:01:19.420 --> 00:01:23.420 models running. If those systems falter, well, 00:01:23.700 --> 00:01:25.879 everything gets harder. So understandably, these 00:01:25.879 --> 00:01:27.859 reports, these vacancies, they've set off some 00:01:27.859 --> 00:01:30.640 alarms. We're hearing from Democrats in Congress, 00:01:31.260 --> 00:01:33.640 former NWS officials. They're asking basically. 00:01:33.920 --> 00:01:36.859 Are we ready? Are we prepared for major weather 00:01:36.859 --> 00:01:39.060 events with these kinds of gaps? Representative 00:01:39.060 --> 00:01:41.200 Zoe Lofgren used some strong language, didn't 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:43.459 she? Mentioned a panic level inside the department 00:01:43.459 --> 00:01:45.500 about filling these jobs. Yeah, that suggests 00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:48.120 a real scramble behind the scenes. And then you 00:01:48.120 --> 00:01:50.459 hear about internal documents, NOAA managers 00:01:50.459 --> 00:01:53.599 asking staff to think about reassignments, possibly 00:01:53.599 --> 00:01:56.840 even involving demotions. That really tells you 00:01:56.840 --> 00:01:58.480 how serious the situation is. They're trying 00:01:58.480 --> 00:02:01.129 anything to plug the holes. And this is all happening 00:02:01.129 --> 00:02:03.989 just as NOAA is set to release its Atlantic hurricane 00:02:03.989 --> 00:02:06.530 season outlook May 22nd. Right. So we'll get 00:02:06.530 --> 00:02:08.909 the forecast for the season right alongside news 00:02:08.909 --> 00:02:11.590 of these internal staffing struggles. Kind of 00:02:11.590 --> 00:02:14.009 ironic timing. It seems like this didn't just 00:02:14.009 --> 00:02:16.129 appear overnight, though. The reports suggest 00:02:16.129 --> 00:02:18.849 it's a combination of things. Yeah, retirement's 00:02:18.849 --> 00:02:20.830 a part of it, sure. But there's also mention 00:02:20.830 --> 00:02:22.689 of actions from the previous administration, 00:02:23.370 --> 00:02:26.229 things like a deferred resignation program and 00:02:26.900 --> 00:02:29.699 Quite a few firings playing a role in where things 00:02:29.699 --> 00:02:32.349 stand now. There was that open letter, too, from 00:02:32.349 --> 00:02:35.090 five former NWS chiefs. That really caught my 00:02:35.090 --> 00:02:38.009 eye. Mm -hmm. Very significant. They warned these 00:02:38.009 --> 00:02:40.189 staff cuts could, and I think this is a direct 00:02:40.189 --> 00:02:43.689 quote, lead to a needless loss of life. Wow. 00:02:43.810 --> 00:02:46.050 They even flirted the idea of filling some roles 00:02:46.050 --> 00:02:47.990 part -time. I mean, that really shows the depth 00:02:47.990 --> 00:02:50.289 of the problem if you're considering part -time 00:02:50.289 --> 00:02:52.789 for critical forecasting roles. The numbers themselves 00:02:52.789 --> 00:02:56.469 are pretty stark. What was it? 250 fired or took 00:02:56.469 --> 00:02:58.750 buyouts back in February? Yeah. And then another 00:02:58.750 --> 00:03:01.169 300 apparently left since then. So that's over 00:03:01.169 --> 00:03:04.389 500 people. Over 10 percent of their staff gone 00:03:04.389 --> 00:03:07.169 right before things typically get busy. It's 00:03:07.169 --> 00:03:09.710 a huge deficit. And getting answers seems tough, 00:03:10.189 --> 00:03:12.310 too. House Democrats on the science committee 00:03:12.310 --> 00:03:14.550 have apparently sent letters to the secretary 00:03:14.550 --> 00:03:17.770 of commerce who oversees NOAA. But no response 00:03:17.770 --> 00:03:20.030 yet. That's what the reports indicate. And that 00:03:20.030 --> 00:03:22.770 silence, you know, doesn't exactly build confidence. 00:03:23.020 --> 00:03:26.360 Now, the NWS spokesperson, Kim Doster, did issue 00:03:26.360 --> 00:03:28.939 a statement. So the agency continues to meet 00:03:28.939 --> 00:03:32.360 its core mission. Right. And she mentioned they've 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:35.199 updated the service level standards for forecast 00:03:35.199 --> 00:03:39.259 offices to manage the personnel shifts. But what 00:03:39.259 --> 00:03:41.560 does that mean exactly? Updated service level 00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:44.139 standards. It sounds a bit vague. It is vague. 00:03:44.199 --> 00:03:46.039 We don't have the details on what those changes 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:48.699 actually entail, what's being adjusted, what's 00:03:48.699 --> 00:03:50.139 potentially being scaled back. We don't know. 00:03:50.270 --> 00:03:52.590 And the overall picture suggests no staffing 00:03:52.590 --> 00:03:55.750 could drop by, what, 20 % between these departures 00:03:55.750 --> 00:03:57.930 and maybe more cuts coming? That's the projection 00:03:57.930 --> 00:04:00.610 being reported, yes. 20 % reduction. That's a 00:04:00.610 --> 00:04:02.990 massive hit for the National Weather Prediction 00:04:02.990 --> 00:04:06.050 Agency. Representative Gabe Amo suggested this 00:04:06.050 --> 00:04:08.830 might even be, like, by design, happening right 00:04:08.830 --> 00:04:11.469 when we might face a really intense hurricane 00:04:11.469 --> 00:04:14.349 season. It certainly raises questions about priorities. 00:04:14.669 --> 00:04:16.490 especially given the timing. And we're seeing 00:04:16.490 --> 00:04:19.370 tangible impacts already, right? Reports of some 00:04:19.370 --> 00:04:22.689 offices struggling to maintain 247 operations. 00:04:22.970 --> 00:04:25.689 Yes, that's a major concern for an agency built 00:04:25.689 --> 00:04:28.269 on round -the -clock vigilance, having offices 00:04:28.269 --> 00:04:31.259 potentially go dark overnight. It's worrying. 00:04:31.500 --> 00:04:33.459 They're even offering moving expenses to get 00:04:33.459 --> 00:04:35.939 people to transfer to the most understaffed offices. 00:04:36.120 --> 00:04:37.899 Mm -hmm. It shows how critical the shortages 00:04:37.899 --> 00:04:40.120 are in certain places and they're trying to shuffle 00:04:40.120 --> 00:04:42.600 resources around, but that creates its own problems. 00:04:42.720 --> 00:04:45.000 We've heard specific offices have actually stopped 00:04:45.000 --> 00:04:47.779 24 -hour operations already. Places in California, 00:04:47.920 --> 00:04:50.399 Kansas, Kentucky. That's right. Sacramento and 00:04:50.399 --> 00:04:53.040 Hanford in California's Central Valley, Goodland 00:04:53.040 --> 00:04:56.000 in western Kansas, and Jackson in eastern Kentucky. 00:04:56.170 --> 00:04:58.509 Reports say they've had to curtail overnight 00:04:58.509 --> 00:05:01.569 shifts due to thin staffing. And it might not 00:05:01.569 --> 00:05:05.949 stop there. Cheyenne, Wyoming. Marquette. Michigan. 00:05:06.829 --> 00:05:11.170 Pendleton. Oregon. Fairbanks. Alaska. They're 00:05:11.170 --> 00:05:13.350 apparently next on the list, possibly by June 00:05:13.350 --> 00:05:15.790 1st. So what happens when these offices aren't 00:05:15.790 --> 00:05:18.009 staffed overnight? What are the potential consequences? 00:05:18.540 --> 00:05:20.839 Well, you could miss developing weather threats. 00:05:21.160 --> 00:05:23.879 Issuing aviation forecasts becomes harder. Even 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:25.680 launching weather balloons on schedule, which 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:28.600 provide crucial data, could be disrupted. Tom 00:05:28.600 --> 00:05:31.000 Fayette from the National Weather Service Employees 00:05:31.000 --> 00:05:33.500 Organization basically said this is the end of 00:05:33.500 --> 00:05:37.060 the NWS as a 247 operation. Yeah, a pretty stark 00:05:37.060 --> 00:05:39.310 assessment. It challenges the fundamental way 00:05:39.310 --> 00:05:42.290 the NWS has operated for decades. We also heard 00:05:42.290 --> 00:05:45.189 from Brian Lamar, a retired NWS meteorologist 00:05:45.189 --> 00:05:47.629 in charge. He suggested maybe this push for, 00:05:47.629 --> 00:05:49.930 quote, efficiency is actually undermining the 00:05:49.930 --> 00:05:52.670 core mission. It's a valid point to raise. Is 00:05:52.670 --> 00:05:55.910 there a trade off happening between streamlining 00:05:55.910 --> 00:05:58.209 and maintaining that essential safety function? 00:05:58.310 --> 00:06:00.769 And that government wide hiring freeze from January 00:06:00.769 --> 00:06:03.189 hasn't helped, presumably. Definitely complicates 00:06:03.189 --> 00:06:05.670 things. Even if they want to hire quickly, there 00:06:05.670 --> 00:06:08.339 are hurdles. Though they say they're looking 00:06:08.339 --> 00:06:10.399 at other ways to bring people on board. The list 00:06:10.399 --> 00:06:13.980 of specific vacancies is just long. Lake Charles 00:06:13.980 --> 00:06:16.579 needs a head meteorologist, two senior ones. 00:06:16.939 --> 00:06:20.300 Houston, similar leadership gaps. Five meteorologists 00:06:20.300 --> 00:06:22.680 needed in Fairbanks. Hanford, California needs 00:06:22.680 --> 00:06:26.259 forecasters, technicians, IT support. Goodland, 00:06:26.600 --> 00:06:29.560 Kansas needs three senior meteorologists. Multiple 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:32.019 offices in Arkansas, Michigan, Nebraska, South 00:06:32.019 --> 00:06:36.040 Dakota, Wyoming need senior staff. Cleveland, 00:06:36.160 --> 00:06:39.079 Cincinnati. It's widespread. And they're even 00:06:39.079 --> 00:06:41.019 trying to get four meteorologists to move to 00:06:41.019 --> 00:06:43.079 Grom. That tells you how stretched they are, 00:06:43.279 --> 00:06:45.540 globally even. The agency admits filling these 00:06:45.540 --> 00:06:47.839 roles will be tricky, and they have to be careful 00:06:47.839 --> 00:06:50.360 not to create new holes by moving people. Right, 00:06:50.379 --> 00:06:52.079 it's like shuffling deck chairs potentially. 00:06:52.199 --> 00:06:54.160 You fill one gap, you might open another. Which 00:06:54.160 --> 00:06:56.480 brings us back to Representative Lofgren's worry 00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:59.759 about dire consequences. With hurricane season 00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:03.399 basically upon us, it feels very real. But Tom 00:07:03.399 --> 00:07:05.910 P. also stressed... you know, the dedication 00:07:05.910 --> 00:07:07.850 of the people still there. They're picking up 00:07:07.850 --> 00:07:10.420 the slack, working harder. That commitment is 00:07:10.420 --> 00:07:12.660 incredible, but it's not sustainable long term. 00:07:12.860 --> 00:07:15.660 No, it's not. And Dr. Andrew Hazelton, who used 00:07:15.660 --> 00:07:17.920 to be a hurricane hunter and was laid off himself, 00:07:18.220 --> 00:07:20.620 made a good point. He said, yes, staffing is 00:07:20.620 --> 00:07:22.560 critical, but just transferring people isn't 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:25.199 the whole answer. You risk weakening the offices 00:07:25.199 --> 00:07:28.480 people leave from. The real need is for new hires, 00:07:28.899 --> 00:07:31.379 actual additions to the workforce. And just to 00:07:31.379 --> 00:07:34.019 underline the scale again, 250 laid off, another 00:07:34.019 --> 00:07:37.519 300 gone since. Those former NWS chiefs calling 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:40.779 it a significant deficit right now. That's a 00:07:40.779 --> 00:07:43.519 heavy warning. So really, the core issue seems 00:07:43.519 --> 00:07:46.339 to be this chaos, this disruption from firings 00:07:46.339 --> 00:07:48.939 and buyouts, and now the struggle to hire replacements 00:07:48.939 --> 00:07:51.759 quickly enough, all colliding just as the Atlantic 00:07:51.759 --> 00:07:53.800 hurricane season starts. It puts the National 00:07:53.800 --> 00:07:55.980 Weather Service under tremendous pressure. And 00:07:55.980 --> 00:07:58.199 that inevitably raises serious questions, doesn't 00:07:58.199 --> 00:08:00.720 it, about the agency's capacity to fully deliver 00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:03.139 on its mission, protecting lives, protecting 00:08:03.139 --> 00:08:05.670 property when severe weather hits. Which brings 00:08:05.670 --> 00:08:07.709 us to something for you, the listener, to think 00:08:07.709 --> 00:08:10.970 about. With the NWS facing these major internal 00:08:10.970 --> 00:08:13.250 challenges right now, what does that mean for 00:08:13.250 --> 00:08:15.930 your community's readiness? For your own safety 00:08:15.930 --> 00:08:18.529 plans as we head into peak storm season, it's 00:08:18.529 --> 00:08:20.430 definitely worth considering the potential impact 00:08:20.430 --> 00:08:23.269 close to home. For more weather insights and 00:08:23.269 --> 00:08:25.449 updates, definitely follow meteorologist Rob 00:08:25.449 --> 00:08:28.009 Jones. You can find him on Instagram, that's 00:08:28.009 --> 00:08:31.410 Meteorologist. On TikTok, he's TV Meteorologist. 00:08:31.529 --> 00:08:33.950 And on YouTube, look for Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:08:34.570 --> 00:08:36.710 That YouTube channel also has the Meteorology 00:08:36.710 --> 00:08:37.929 Matters podcast playlist.