WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.640 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. If you've ever 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:05.519 wondered how changes in weather data, you know, 00:00:05.839 --> 00:00:08.480 climate research, actually hit home, how they 00:00:08.480 --> 00:00:11.439 affect your life, well, you've tuned into the 00:00:11.439 --> 00:00:14.599 right conversation. Absolutely. Today, we're 00:00:14.599 --> 00:00:17.559 looking closely at some recent shifts, things 00:00:17.559 --> 00:00:19.260 happening in the federal government concerning 00:00:19.260 --> 00:00:22.039 climate science and how we track severe weather. 00:00:22.250 --> 00:00:24.429 Yeah, and these changes could have some pretty 00:00:24.429 --> 00:00:27.170 surprising consequences, really, for every single 00:00:27.170 --> 00:00:29.449 American. Exactly. We're going to dig into what's 00:00:29.449 --> 00:00:31.750 happening with scientists involved in the National 00:00:31.750 --> 00:00:35.109 Climate Assessment. Right, hundreds of them basically 00:00:35.109 --> 00:00:37.170 told their work wasn't needed anymore. And we'll 00:00:37.170 --> 00:00:40.109 also talk about NOAA, the National Oceanic and 00:00:40.109 --> 00:00:42.810 Atmospheric Administration, ending its database, 00:00:43.549 --> 00:00:45.729 the one tracking those billion -dollar weather 00:00:45.729 --> 00:00:48.210 and climate disasters. It's been around a long 00:00:48.210 --> 00:00:51.070 time. Yeah, that database is, well, was. Pretty 00:00:51.070 --> 00:00:52.929 significant. Now these might sound like, you 00:00:52.929 --> 00:00:55.189 know, bureaucratic tweaks, technical stuff happening 00:00:55.189 --> 00:00:58.369 behind the scenes, but we really want to unpack 00:00:58.369 --> 00:01:01.250 what they could mean for you, how you understand 00:01:01.250 --> 00:01:03.689 the risks around you, how prepared you can be 00:01:03.689 --> 00:01:07.329 for severe weather. And ultimately, yeah, the 00:01:07.329 --> 00:01:09.090 impact on your wallet. That's a big part of it. 00:01:09.189 --> 00:01:11.450 So where should we start? Let's maybe begin with 00:01:11.450 --> 00:01:14.250 those scientists, the ones no longer on the National 00:01:14.250 --> 00:01:17.209 Climate Assessment. OK, well. The number itself 00:01:17.209 --> 00:01:20.349 is striking. It's nearly 400 scientists. These 00:01:20.349 --> 00:01:22.489 were people actively working on the assessment 00:01:22.489 --> 00:01:26.290 when they were told, essentially, their expertise 00:01:26.290 --> 00:01:28.650 wasn't required. And this assessment, it's not 00:01:28.650 --> 00:01:31.269 just some report, right? It's mandated by Congress. 00:01:31.549 --> 00:01:34.189 That's correct. Every four years, it summarizes 00:01:34.189 --> 00:01:36.569 climate change impacts right here in the U .S. 00:01:36.730 --> 00:01:39.670 And it's used by, well, a whole range of people. 00:01:40.150 --> 00:01:42.930 Federal agencies making policy, local governments 00:01:42.930 --> 00:01:46.010 planning. Even businesses. Oh, definitely. Businesses 00:01:46.010 --> 00:01:49.370 use it to assess future risks. It's foundational. 00:01:50.069 --> 00:01:51.870 So it really lays the groundwork for understanding 00:01:51.870 --> 00:01:54.810 what's happening. Sea level rise, changes for 00:01:54.810 --> 00:01:57.689 farmers, the intensity of storms. Exactly. It 00:01:57.689 --> 00:01:59.709 touches on all of that. It helps understand threats 00:01:59.709 --> 00:02:03.549 to lives, property, the economy. And now the 00:02:03.549 --> 00:02:06.170 people putting that together are being dismissed. 00:02:06.569 --> 00:02:09.289 And it's telling that major scientific groups 00:02:09.289 --> 00:02:12.050 like the American Geophysical Union and the American 00:02:12.050 --> 00:02:14.750 Meteorological Society They've stepped up. They've 00:02:14.750 --> 00:02:17.169 announced they'll publish work from these scientists 00:02:17.169 --> 00:02:20.110 themselves in a special collection. Hmm. That 00:02:20.110 --> 00:02:22.129 sounds like a big signal, like there's a real 00:02:22.129 --> 00:02:24.689 concern in the scientific community. It strongly 00:02:24.689 --> 00:02:28.530 suggests worries about whether the official report 00:02:28.530 --> 00:02:32.250 will be as comprehensive, as detailed as it needs 00:02:32.250 --> 00:02:34.110 to be. Right. The administration says, okay, 00:02:34.189 --> 00:02:36.370 they're legally required to produce the assessment. 00:02:36.409 --> 00:02:39.330 Yes, they have to. But they're also reevaluating 00:02:39.330 --> 00:02:41.759 its scope. what it covers. That seems to be the 00:02:41.759 --> 00:02:44.500 plan, yes. Evaluating the scope. So think about 00:02:44.500 --> 00:02:47.460 that. If the scope gets narrowed, if the knowledge 00:02:47.460 --> 00:02:51.300 from those nearly 400 experts isn't fully included, 00:02:51.659 --> 00:02:53.900 what does that mean for the report you see? The 00:02:53.900 --> 00:02:56.300 one policymakers use, will it be the full picture? 00:02:56.539 --> 00:02:59.020 And that hits directly on planning for the future. 00:02:59.500 --> 00:03:02.400 It's critical. How can governments, federal, 00:03:02.479 --> 00:03:05.599 state, local, how can they prepare effectively 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:08.680 for climate impacts without the most a thorough 00:03:08.680 --> 00:03:10.939 assessment possible. Yeah, things like building 00:03:10.939 --> 00:03:14.120 infrastructure, public health planning. Precisely. 00:03:14.439 --> 00:03:17.719 Planning for heat waves, disease vectors, emergency 00:03:17.719 --> 00:03:21.120 response protocols. It all relies on good projections 00:03:21.120 --> 00:03:23.840 of future risk. And if those projections become, 00:03:23.840 --> 00:03:26.960 what, fuzzier, less detailed? It just makes it 00:03:26.960 --> 00:03:29.500 much harder to make sound decisions, adaptation 00:03:29.500 --> 00:03:31.699 efforts, mitigation efforts. They can really 00:03:31.699 --> 00:03:34.099 be hampered. It's like, um... Trying to navigate 00:03:34.099 --> 00:03:36.580 in fog without all your instruments, maybe? That's 00:03:36.580 --> 00:03:39.000 a good analogy. You're less sure of what's ahead. 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:42.500 OK, so that's the assessment side. Let's shift 00:03:42.500 --> 00:03:45.150 gears a bit. Let's talk about the money. The 00:03:45.150 --> 00:03:47.909 end of NOAA's billion -dollar disastrous database. 00:03:48.689 --> 00:03:51.270 This sounds potentially huge, too. It really 00:03:51.270 --> 00:03:53.449 is another significant change for public understanding. 00:03:54.030 --> 00:03:56.990 NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:03:57.349 --> 00:04:00.090 kept this database going since 1980. Forty -plus 00:04:00.090 --> 00:04:03.050 years. Wow. Meticulously tracking the financial 00:04:03.050 --> 00:04:05.879 costs. only events causing over a billion dollars 00:04:05.879 --> 00:04:08.280 in damage. So the really big ones, hurricanes, 00:04:08.539 --> 00:04:11.060 droughts, major floods, hail storms. Exactly. 00:04:11.240 --> 00:04:13.419 The kind of events that can devastate communities, 00:04:13.800 --> 00:04:16.120 cripple regional economies. And this data wasn't 00:04:16.120 --> 00:04:18.720 just for scientists, was it? No, not at all. 00:04:18.899 --> 00:04:21.319 It was a vital resource for the public, for journalists 00:04:21.319 --> 00:04:24.779 covering these disasters, anyone wanting to grasp 00:04:24.779 --> 00:04:28.220 the actual financial toll. It put a hard, you 00:04:28.220 --> 00:04:30.879 know, a dollar figure on the cost of the country. 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:33.699 Right. It made it tangible. And NOAA themselves 00:04:33.699 --> 00:04:36.579 said, look, the database wasn't designed to pinpoint 00:04:36.579 --> 00:04:39.459 climate change as the sole cause for each event. 00:04:40.019 --> 00:04:42.240 They acknowledged other factors matter, like 00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:44.740 more people living in risky areas, more expensive 00:04:44.740 --> 00:04:47.060 stuff getting damaged. Sure, development patterns 00:04:47.060 --> 00:04:51.199 play a role. Absolutely. But the data did clearly 00:04:51.199 --> 00:04:55.060 show a trend, an undeniable upward trend in losses 00:04:55.060 --> 00:04:58.290 over time. And that trend aligns with what climate 00:04:58.290 --> 00:05:00.230 science tells us about certain extreme weather 00:05:00.230 --> 00:05:02.689 events becoming more frequent or more intense. 00:05:02.889 --> 00:05:05.589 It certainly does. Many studies link rising temperatures 00:05:05.589 --> 00:05:07.709 to increases in the severity or frequency of 00:05:07.709 --> 00:05:10.829 heat waves, heavy rainfall, some types of storms, 00:05:11.329 --> 00:05:13.689 factors that drive up disaster costs. So even 00:05:13.689 --> 00:05:16.730 without saying climate change caused X, the database 00:05:16.730 --> 00:05:18.629 showed the financial bleeding from the types 00:05:18.629 --> 00:05:20.910 of events climate change makes worse? That's 00:05:20.910 --> 00:05:23.230 a fair way to put it. It provided compelling 00:05:23.230 --> 00:05:25.949 evidence of that growing financial strain. And 00:05:25.949 --> 00:05:29.649 now, it's stopping. Why? Well, Newell mentioned 00:05:29.649 --> 00:05:34.569 things like staffing cuts, also increased scrutiny 00:05:34.569 --> 00:05:38.230 on climate -related programs. The existing data 00:05:38.230 --> 00:05:40.870 up through 2024 will be archived. You can still 00:05:40.870 --> 00:05:43.509 access the history. But no new updates after 00:05:43.509 --> 00:05:46.550 this year. That makes tracking future trends 00:05:46.550 --> 00:05:49.839 consistently much, much harder. Okay, this feels 00:05:49.839 --> 00:05:51.939 like where it really connects to American families. 00:05:51.959 --> 00:05:54.220 I think so. Because this database wasn't just 00:05:54.220 --> 00:05:56.519 government numbers, right? It pulled info from 00:05:56.519 --> 00:05:58.839 the insurance industry, other sources. Exactly. 00:05:58.959 --> 00:06:01.180 It was a unique compilation. public and private 00:06:01.180 --> 00:06:04.019 data synthesized. And experts like Jeremy Porter 00:06:04.019 --> 00:06:05.680 from the First Street Foundation, they're saying 00:06:05.680 --> 00:06:08.100 this will be incredibly hard, maybe impossible, 00:06:08.259 --> 00:06:11.819 for others to replicate properly. Yes. He specifically 00:06:11.819 --> 00:06:13.959 mentioned analyzing damage trends regionally. 00:06:14.300 --> 00:06:17.120 That becomes very difficult without this established, 00:06:17.180 --> 00:06:19.860 consistent federal resource. It provided a baseline. 00:06:20.000 --> 00:06:21.980 So let's spell it out. What are the consequences 00:06:21.980 --> 00:06:25.759 for taxpayers? For homeowners. Well, think about 00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:29.240 understanding risk. Without this clear public 00:06:29.240 --> 00:06:33.060 data tracking the costs, how well can you really 00:06:33.060 --> 00:06:35.680 know the financial danger of living in a certain 00:06:35.680 --> 00:06:38.920 area prone to floods or wildfires or hurricanes? 00:06:39.040 --> 00:06:41.519 It becomes harder to gauge. Much harder. And 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:43.639 that could definitely affect insurance. Premiums 00:06:43.639 --> 00:06:45.720 might go up significantly. Or could people lose 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:48.180 access to insurance altogether in some places? 00:06:48.339 --> 00:06:51.709 That is a real concern, yes. Insurance availability 00:06:51.709 --> 00:06:54.550 could shrink in high -risk zones if the risk 00:06:54.550 --> 00:06:56.730 isn't transparently quantified and tracked over 00:06:56.730 --> 00:06:59.329 time. That's quite unsettling. If you can't easily 00:06:59.329 --> 00:07:01.750 find the data on rising costs, how do you assess 00:07:01.750 --> 00:07:03.870 your personal risk? Right. And how do insurance 00:07:03.870 --> 00:07:06.050 companies set fair rates based on predictable 00:07:06.050 --> 00:07:08.949 trends? In maybe bigger picture, how does the 00:07:08.949 --> 00:07:11.050 public hold officials accountable for managing 00:07:11.050 --> 00:07:13.769 these risks if the scoreboard showing the financial 00:07:13.769 --> 00:07:16.569 damage keeps getting hidden or just stops updating? 00:07:16.730 --> 00:07:19.050 It removes a key piece of public accountability, 00:07:19.050 --> 00:07:21.920 arguably. A clear measure of the growing burden. 00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:24.160 It feels like losing a crucial warning light 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:27.240 on the dashboard. Precisely. And this isn't happening 00:07:27.240 --> 00:07:30.420 in a vacuum. It coincides with broader staff 00:07:30.420 --> 00:07:33.439 reductions reported at NOAA at the National Weather 00:07:33.439 --> 00:07:35.139 Service. Which could affect other things, too. 00:07:35.699 --> 00:07:38.879 Forecasts? Warnings? Potentially, yes. Those 00:07:38.879 --> 00:07:41.379 services rely on adequate staffing and resources. 00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:44.439 Plus, looking ahead, the White House has proposed 00:07:44.439 --> 00:07:47.560 some pretty deep budget cuts for NOAA for 2026. 00:07:47.720 --> 00:07:51.160 Oh. Like what? Proposals included potentially 00:07:51.160 --> 00:07:53.680 eliminating NOAA's entire research division, 00:07:54.300 --> 00:07:56.800 closing weather and climate labs. That would 00:07:56.800 --> 00:07:58.600 obviously further reduce the data available. 00:07:59.230 --> 00:08:03.089 OK, so fewer scientists working on the big picture 00:08:03.089 --> 00:08:06.290 climate assessment and stopping the main tool 00:08:06.290 --> 00:08:08.629 tracking the dollar cost of extreme weather hitting 00:08:08.629 --> 00:08:10.949 us now. That's the combination. And meanwhile, 00:08:11.129 --> 00:08:13.329 big reinsurance companies like Swiss Re, they're 00:08:13.329 --> 00:08:15.670 reporting global insured losses from disasters 00:08:15.670 --> 00:08:18.329 are rising. Yes, the financial impact globally 00:08:18.329 --> 00:08:20.769 is climbing. The data is clear on that front 00:08:20.769 --> 00:08:23.019 from the insurance world. So the problem isn't 00:08:23.019 --> 00:08:25.399 going away. It seems like our ability to officially 00:08:25.399 --> 00:08:28.000 track and analyze its impact here in the U .S. 00:08:28.019 --> 00:08:30.339 is potentially shrinking. Well, when you connect 00:08:30.339 --> 00:08:33.159 those two dots, the scientists and the database, 00:08:33.740 --> 00:08:37.480 it does suggest potentially a move towards downplaying 00:08:37.480 --> 00:08:39.879 the impacts, downplaying climate change effects, 00:08:40.100 --> 00:08:43.000 and the very real rising costs of extreme weather. 00:08:43.120 --> 00:08:45.820 How so? Well, if you reduce the scientific power 00:08:45.820 --> 00:08:48.600 focused on understanding the problem comprehensively. 00:08:48.860 --> 00:08:51.779 And you simultaneously stop tracking a key metric 00:08:51.779 --> 00:08:54.399 of its financial damage. It just makes it harder 00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:57.159 for everyone. For you, listening at home. For 00:08:57.159 --> 00:09:00.700 policymakers. Harder to fully grasp the scale 00:09:00.700 --> 00:09:03.840 and urgency. And that lack of data, lack of analysis. 00:09:04.299 --> 00:09:06.700 It ripples out, doesn't it? Absolutely. It hinders 00:09:06.700 --> 00:09:09.620 informed decisions at every single level. Individuals 00:09:09.620 --> 00:09:11.679 might not get the full picture of risk in their 00:09:11.679 --> 00:09:13.899 town. Local governments might struggle to plan 00:09:13.899 --> 00:09:15.960 adequately for what's coming. And higher levels 00:09:15.960 --> 00:09:17.940 of government might feel less pressure, perhaps, 00:09:18.080 --> 00:09:20.539 to enact policies needed to mitigate risks or 00:09:20.539 --> 00:09:23.019 help communities adapt if the problem isn't being 00:09:23.019 --> 00:09:25.580 clearly and consistently documented. So a weaker 00:09:25.580 --> 00:09:28.169 understanding leads to weaker preparation. Almost 00:09:28.169 --> 00:09:30.490 inevitably. And we know what inadequate preparation 00:09:30.490 --> 00:09:33.330 means. It usually means greater financial costs 00:09:33.330 --> 00:09:35.850 down the road for homeowners, for taxpayers footing 00:09:35.850 --> 00:09:38.090 recovery bills. And tragically, greater human 00:09:38.090 --> 00:09:41.730 costs, too. Yes. And without that easy access 00:09:41.730 --> 00:09:45.409 to data on the rising costs, the burden on communities, 00:09:45.570 --> 00:09:49.149 on taxpayers, it becomes less visible, less transparent, 00:09:49.149 --> 00:09:51.669 which you could argue makes it harder to have 00:09:51.669 --> 00:09:53.789 an informed public conversation about solutions. 00:09:54.070 --> 00:09:57.230 So for you listening, what does this boil down 00:09:57.230 --> 00:10:00.769 to? It means the information you rely on to understand 00:10:00.769 --> 00:10:03.610 climate shifts in your area, the real risks from 00:10:03.610 --> 00:10:06.750 extreme weather, that information might become 00:10:06.750 --> 00:10:09.750 less complete, maybe less reliable, harder to 00:10:09.750 --> 00:10:11.889 find. And that can make it tougher for you to 00:10:11.889 --> 00:10:14.350 make big life decisions, where to live, how to 00:10:14.350 --> 00:10:16.350 protect your home, what kind of future to plan 00:10:16.350 --> 00:10:19.110 for. These changes we've discussed today on meteorology 00:10:19.110 --> 00:10:21.370 matters, scaling back climate research, stopping 00:10:21.370 --> 00:10:24.419 the disaster cost database. They're pretty significant 00:10:24.419 --> 00:10:26.500 shifts. They really are. Shifts in how the nation 00:10:26.500 --> 00:10:29.279 monitors, understands, and ultimately responds 00:10:29.279 --> 00:10:32.240 to a changing climate and its impacts. And these 00:10:32.240 --> 00:10:35.000 developments could genuinely create bigger challenges 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:37.600 for people, for communities, for businesses, 00:10:38.299 --> 00:10:40.240 trying to prepare for those increasing risks 00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.980 and costs. Yeah, that absence of comprehensive 00:10:42.980 --> 00:10:46.529 public data readily available science. It can 00:10:46.529 --> 00:10:48.850 have really far reaching consequences for all 00:10:48.850 --> 00:10:51.570 of us in American society. We definitely encourage 00:10:51.570 --> 00:10:53.529 you to stay informed. Think critically about 00:10:53.529 --> 00:10:56.529 this. How might these changes affect your future, 00:10:56.669 --> 00:10:59.450 your community's future? And you can keep exploring 00:10:59.450 --> 00:11:02.190 these topics by following meteorologist Rob Jones. 00:11:02.610 --> 00:11:05.350 That's me on Instagram at Meteorologist. Did 00:11:05.350 --> 00:11:08.389 plug. Uh huh. And on TikTok at TV Meteorologist. 00:11:08.769 --> 00:11:10.690 And check out the Rob Jones Hurricane YouTube 00:11:10.690 --> 00:11:12.529 channel. You'll find the Meteorology Matters 00:11:12.529 --> 00:11:15.539 podcast playlist there too. So, maybe the final 00:11:15.539 --> 00:11:18.220 thought for you today is what questions do these 00:11:18.220 --> 00:11:20.379 developments raise for you personally? Yeah, 00:11:20.379 --> 00:11:22.360 and what more information would you want to seek 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:22.840 out now?