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Welcome to this edition of the Meteorology Matters

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podcast. Great to be here. If you enjoy discussions

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like this one, remember you can follow meteorologist

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Rob Jones. He's on Instagram at Meteorologist,

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TikTok at TVMeteorologist. And YouTube as well.

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Right, YouTube, follow Rob Jones Hurricane. You

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can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast

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playlist there. Good stuff. So today we're diving

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into some, well. pretty significant shifts within

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the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

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NOAA, and the National Weather Service too. Yes,

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especially with a potentially active storm season

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basically upon us. It's concerning timing. Exactly.

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There are indicators that staffing levels at

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the National Weather Service are facing some,

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let's say, considerable challenges. So putting

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it mildly. We want to look at what this might

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mean for the forecasts and warnings, you know,

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the ones everyone relies on. Accuracy, timeliness,

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all of that. It's definitely a situation worth

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watching closely. It's not just one thing. It's

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a combination of factors really squeezing the

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agency. OK, so let's start with the staffing

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itself. I read about a recent federal buyout

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offer. That's right. A buyout was offered, and

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the expectation is that at least 300 National

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Weather Service employees are leaving because

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of it. The deadline was just this past Thursday.

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300 people? That sounds like a lot on its own.

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But this isn't the only reason for vacancies,

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is it? No, not at all. This is layered on top

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of existing shortages. You've got retirements

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happening naturally, plus vacancies from previous

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buyouts or separations that just haven't been

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filled. It's been an ongoing issue. So the Weather

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Service Director, Ken Graham, he's actually spoken

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about this. He has. He indicated that the situation

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is getting quite serious, potentially leaving

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several forecast offices with maybe only seven

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meteorologists. Seven. What's the usual number?

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Well, ideally, you'd want something like 12 to

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15 meteorologists in a typical forecast office

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to cover everything, you know, 24 hours a day,

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seven days a week, especially during active weather.

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Wow. So seven instead of 15. That's basically

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half. The workload must be immense. It effectively

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means each person is potentially doing the work

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of almost two people. That leads to burnout,

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fatigue and frankly increases the risk of errors.

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And looking bigger picture, the entire agency

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size. It's shrunk considerably. Yeah, the numbers

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suggest the Weather Service is nearly 20 % smaller

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now than it was when President Donald Trump took

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office. 20%. That's a significant chunk of their

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workforce gone. It really is. Yeah. And that's

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why you're hearing concerns, serious concerns,

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from meteorologists still on the job and from

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public officials too. What are they most worried

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about? The fear is that these kinds of staff

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reductions could have, well, potentially deadly

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consequences when severe weather hits. Fewer

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people means less capacity to monitor constantly,

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issue warnings quickly, communicate effectively

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with emergency managers. So it's a chain reaction.

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Exactly. Everything gets stretched thinner. And

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are these shortages spread evenly or are some

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areas feeling it more? It seems to be hitting

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the central part of the country particularly

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hard. Offices like Kansas City, Omaha, Louisville,

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Des Moines, Grand Rapids. They're reportedly

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facing the biggest staffing gaps. And those areas

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get a lot of severe weather, don't they? Tornadoes,

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big thunderstorms. Precisely. It's a concerning

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concentration of shortages in a very active weather

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region. So how are the folks still working there

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coping more hours? Definitely more over time,

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significantly more from what we understand. Fewer

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shifts are fully staffed, which is risky. Meaning

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sometimes there just aren't enough people physically

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there. Right. And you're also seeing managers

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having to step back from their you know, management

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duties to actually work the forecast desk just

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to keep basic services running. That can't be

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sustainable in the long run. I saw a quote from

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a former meteorologist in charge. Ah, but what

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about stretching things? You can only stretch

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things so much. Eventually things start to break.

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That really paints a picture. It does. It highlights

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the intense pressure and the potential breaking

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points. Well, delayed warnings, maybe less specific

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forecasts, missing subtle clues in the data.

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because people are just overloaded. Human error

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becomes more likely too, I imagine. Absolutely.

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When you're tired, working long hours under stress,

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mistakes can happen. And in weather forecasting,

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mistakes can have serious impacts. It's not just

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about the number of people either, right? I heard

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something about building maintenance issues.

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Yes, that was a striking example. Reports mentioned

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a forecast office in Kentucky during recent deadly

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storms actually had to use portable toilets because

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of facility issues. Portable toilets. Trying

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to issue warnings for deadly weather. It sounds

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unbelievable, but it highlights the challenging

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conditions some staff are working under. It's

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not just about forecast models. It's about basic

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infrastructure sometimes. That's just... Rough.

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And these buyouts, they weren't just at the Weather

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Service, but across NOAA generally. Correct.

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The broader National Oceanic and Atmospheric

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Administration saw over 870 employees volunteer

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for buyouts as of last Wednesday. Over 870 across

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the whole agency. So this impacts fisheries,

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ocean research, everything NOAA does. Potentially,

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yes. It raises questions about the agency's overall

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capacity across its wide range of responsibilities.

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And is there a sense among the staff who are

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left that this might not be the end of the cuts?

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There's definitely anxiety reported among staff

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about potential future cuts, possibly through

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something called a reduction in force or RIF.

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That uncertainty just adds more stress. Now politically,

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the Trump administration's budget proposal for

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next year. It mentioned NOAA, didn't it? It did.

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The proposal included a pretty significant cut

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to NOAA's overall budget, about 27%. 27 % cut

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overall, but the Weather Service itself. Interestingly,

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the proposal kept the National Weather Service's

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funding level flat. No cut, but no increase either.

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So the Weather Service budget stays the same,

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but other parts of NOAA face big cuts. That seems

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to be the plan outlined in that proposal. However...

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It's crucial, as we said, that even with flat

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funding, the Weather Service was already understaffed

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before these latest 300 departures. Right. So

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flat funding with fewer people still means doing

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more with less or maybe doing less, period. Exactly.

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It still poses major challenges for maintaining

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the level of service people expect and need.

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OK, so given these staffing issues, what are

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the potential direct impacts on the weather services

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we actually receive? Well, a memo surfaced. obtained

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by the Washington Post, outlining potential service

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cutbacks. One big one is weather balloon launches.

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The weather balloons? I see those mentioned sometimes.

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Why are they so important? They're absolutely

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critical. They launch twice a day from 92 sites

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across the U .S. They carry instruments called

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radio sons way up into the atmosphere. What do

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those instruments measure? Temperature, pressure,

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humidity, wind speed, and direction. Basically,

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giving us a vertical profile of the atmosphere.

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It's fundamental data that goes directly into

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the computer weather models. Ah, so the models

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need that data to make accurate predictions?

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Precisely. It's also vital for aviation safety.

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Without that 3D atmospheric data, the forecasts

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just aren't as good. You lose resolution, maybe

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miss developing features. And are we already

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seeing fewer launches? Yes, there have already

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been instances, especially in the Northern Plains

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and Rockies, where launches have been limited

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or even skipped entirely due to staffing or other

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issues. Less data means potentially less reliable

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forecasts downstream. That makes sense. I also

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heard about a directive possibly reducing the

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number of meteorologists on duty during quiet

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times. That's right. A Commerce Department directive

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floated the idea of having just a single meteorologist

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working during quiet weather periods if vacancy

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rates climb. Just one person covering everything.

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The initial memo even linked higher vacancy rates,

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like 15%, to reducing balloon launches and maybe

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even suspending them at 35 % vacancy. Suspending

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balloon launches? That sounds drastic. It does.

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Now there was an update that sort of walked that

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back slightly, encouraging launches to continue

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with one meteorologist as long as a second person

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is available just for the prep work. But still,

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it points towards much leaner staffing, even

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around the clock. Definitely a sign of trying

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to operate with fewer resources, being stretched

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thin 24 hours a day, seven days a week. And it

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wasn't just balloons and staffing levels. Something

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about language translation, too. Yeah, this is

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another concerning point. A contract for automatically

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translating weather service warnings into Spanish

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has apparently lapsed. It wasn't renewed. So

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no more automatic Spanish translations. It seems

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that way, which feels like a step backward, honestly.

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There had been efforts to improve multilingual

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communication, especially after past disasters

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showed how crucial it is to reach everyone. Absolutely.

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Getting safety info out in multiple languages

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seems essential. Losing that capability potentially

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leaves a large group of people more vulnerable

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because they might not get timely warnings in

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a language they understand. That's really unfortunate.

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And there was almost a major IT problem, too.

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Yes, a very close call. In late March, right

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when some dangerous storms were brewing, they

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nearly lost access to what was described as a

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cornerstone IT system. Cornerstone. So, like,

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really important. Sounds like it. The system

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used for processing Wego data was due to a contract

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issue that apparently got resolved literally

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at the last minute. Wow. I'm maddened losing

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that system right before a severe weather outbreak.

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It highlights the kind of background vulnerabilities

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and pressures the agency is dealing with beyond

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just the frontline forecasting staff. It really

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sounds like the dedication of the folks working

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there is being tested from all sides. Absolutely.

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And these immediate pressures, the staffing,

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the balloons, they're happening while there are

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also big questions about the future of the research

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that actually improves forecasting, right? These

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long term threats. Yes. And this could be the

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most damaging part in the long run. The administration's

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proposed budget for fiscal year 2026 includes

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a plan to completely eliminate NOAA's Oceanic

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and Atmospheric Research Office. OAR. Eliminate

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it. The entire research office. That's the proposal.

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It would mean closing its 10 research labs and

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also shutting down the 16 affiliated cooperative

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institutes, which are partnerships, often with

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universities. Where would the research go? The

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plan says remaining research efforts would be

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sort of scattered, moved into other NOAA departments,

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but essentially all the dedicated weather, climate,

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and ocean labs would close. That sounds devastating

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for the science side of things. It would be a

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massive blow. The American Meteorological Society,

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the AMS, and the National Weather Association,

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the NWA, put out a joint statement. expressing

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extreme concern. What did they say? They said

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this would, and I'm paraphrasing here, drastically

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undercut the scientific backbone and the workforce

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needed for the accurate forecasts and warnings

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we depend on. With potentially disastrous consequences.

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Yes, for public safety and the economy. They

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also pointed out there wasn't much opportunity

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for feedback on this decision, suggesting it

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was maybe rushed. What kind of research comes

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out of these labs that we might lose? Can you

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give some examples? Oh, fundamental stuff. They

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highlighted the development of the National Doppler

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Radar Network, NECAXRAD, that came from NOAA

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research. Our main tool for seeing storms. Exactly.

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Also, the creation and constant improvement of

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the computer weather models the National Weather

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Service relies on every single day. Those models

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need continuous research to get better. Okay,

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so radar and the forecast models, what else?

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The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft program, those

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planes flying into storms, that capability stems

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from NOAA research. Gathering that critical hurricane

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data. Right. And models that track airborne hazards

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think wildfire smoke, toxic plumes, volcanic

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ash. That's OAR work, too. Things we've seen

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become more and more important recently. Definitely.

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Even things like the system that warns about

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low oxygen hypoxia in the Great Lakes or the

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real -time tsunami monitoring system. Tsunami

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monitoring too. Wow. Yes. And the systems that

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help predict El Nino for seasonal forecasts or

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manage water reservoirs. Plus all the fundamental

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climate modeling and monitoring networks. It's

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a huge portfolio. So if this research stops or

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is severely curtailed, the tools that the forecasters

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use will just Stagnate. That's the fear. Forecasts

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might stop improving or even get worse over time

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as the science stalls. Observational data could

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decrease. Outreach could suffer. University research

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funding would plummet. It's a ripple effect.

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The AMS made a point about the cost, didn't they?

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Something about coffee. Yeah, they put it quite

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starkly. They said, no research costs every American

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citizen less than a cup of coffee per year. Less

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than a cup of coffee. But provides massive returns

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in safety and economic benefits by improving

00:12:46.889 --> 00:12:50.399
forecasts and warnings. It really frames the

00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:52.679
value proposition. That's a powerful way to put

00:12:52.679 --> 00:12:55.740
it. And because of these concerns, both the AMS

00:12:55.740 --> 00:12:58.580
and NWA are urging people, if they're concerned,

00:12:59.059 --> 00:13:01.059
to contact their elected representatives and

00:13:01.059 --> 00:13:03.860
share their views on these proposed cuts. So,

00:13:03.860 --> 00:13:05.600
wrapping this up, it's clear we're looking at

00:13:05.600 --> 00:13:07.779
some really significant changes potentially affecting

00:13:07.779 --> 00:13:10.120
how we monitor and predict weather. Yeah, the

00:13:10.120 --> 00:13:12.580
combination of the immediate staffing crunch

00:13:12.580 --> 00:13:15.379
of the Weather Service and these proposed deep

00:13:15.379 --> 00:13:18.379
cuts to NOAA's research arm. it raises serious

00:13:18.379 --> 00:13:20.620
questions. Questions about the future reliability

00:13:20.620 --> 00:13:23.379
of forecasts, warnings, and ultimately public

00:13:23.379 --> 00:13:25.799
safety. It seems crucial to stay informed about

00:13:25.799 --> 00:13:27.480
this. Absolutely. These aren't small tweaks.

00:13:27.639 --> 00:13:29.399
They could be fundamental shifts. We definitely

00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:31.860
encourage listeners to keep following this story,

00:13:32.039 --> 00:13:34.720
stay informed, and perhaps, as suggested, reach

00:13:34.720 --> 00:13:36.539
out to your representatives with your thoughts.

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Your voice can matter on issues like this. And

00:13:39.240 --> 00:13:41.440
for more discussions like this, and to stay updated,

00:13:41.860 --> 00:13:45.009
remember to follow meteorologist Rob Jones. Instagram

00:13:45.009 --> 00:13:48.950
Meteorologist, TikTok TV Meteorologist, and YouTube

00:13:48.950 --> 00:13:51.190
Rob Jones Hurricane, where you'll also find the

00:13:51.190 --> 00:13:53.250
Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. Thanks

00:13:53.250 --> 00:13:55.470
for tuning in. Thank you for joining us for this

00:13:55.470 --> 00:13:57.690
edition of the Meteorology Matters podcast.
