Welcome to Meteorology Matters. We're diving
into some significant weather right now unfolding
across the central United States. You've probably
heard about severe weather, but what's noteworthy
here is this combination of really high -level
threats impacting the same general areas. What
do you think about this? Yeah, you know, it's
definitely unusual. What makes this situation
critical for you to understand is that we have
a region facing a heightened likelihood of both
intense tornadoes and dangerous flash flooding.
potentially hitting back to back. This kind of
dual high -risk scenario is something meteorologists
only anticipate under very specific and frankly
concerning atmospheric setups. Yeah, absolutely.
So in this Meteorology Matters, we're going to
take a look at the atmospheric ingredients converging
to produce this risk. We'll pinpoint the communities
most likely to experience the effects and we'll
highlight what you need to be aware of to stay
safe. For more detailed discussions and continuing
updates, remember you can follow meteorologist
Rob Jones on Instagram, Meteorologist on TikTok,
TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube follow Rob Jones
Hurricane, where you can also find the Meteorology
Matters podcast playlist. Okay, let's get into
this. Beginning with the tornado concern, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Storm Prediction Center has issued a high -inch
risk for tornadoes for Wednesday. To really underscore
how infrequent this is, this level of alert statistically
occurs less than 1 % of the time. This high -risk
zone encompasses significant locations like Memphis,
Paducah, and extends along a considerable portion
of the Ohio River Valley. Do you think that's
a good summation? Yeah, that sounds good. Yeah,
and if you reside with within these designated
high -risk zones today, your chances of experiencing
a violent tornado are actually three times greater.
It's a substantial increase. What's really driving
this high risk is that conditions are expected
to be highly conducive to the development of
isolated supercell thunderstorms. Yeah, and those
are rotating thunderstorms. Yeah, and those are
the ones that can hold the greatest potential
to generate the most severe weather. Okay, and
these aren't your typical thunderstorms. We're
talking about an increased likelihood of very
large hail. possibly exceeding the size of golf
balls, widespread damaging winds, and that considerable
threat of tornadoes, and some of these could
be quite powerful, potentially reaching EF2 or
even EF3 plus intensity. Now, when we talk about
EF2 and EF3, for someone just tuning in, what
kind of damage are we talking about? What do
those numbers mean? Yeah, so an EF2 tornado can
cause significant damage. tearing roofs off well
-built homes, overturning train cars. An EF3
is even more intense, capable of causing severe
damage to even sturdy buildings, leveling well
-constructed homes, and throwing cars into the
air. Oh wow, that really paints a picture. What's
the time frame here that people should be aware
of? So the critical period extends from the afternoon
hours into the evening, and in some areas this
threat could even persist overnight. And it's
really important for folks to remember that nighttime
tornadoes pose a greater danger simply because
visibility is reduced. Right, so then you can't
really see it coming as easily. Exactly. So what
kind of alerts should people be paying attention
to? We're likely to see tornado watches issued
perhaps in the early afternoon. In this kind
of situation, what does a watch actually signify?
Well, a tornado watch signifies that atmospheric
conditions are favorable for the development
of tornadic supercells within a relatively short
time frame, perhaps within the next hour or two.
It serves as a cue to be exceptionally vigilant,
have your safety plan in readiness and stay tuned
for further updates. Right. So it's kind of like
be prepared. Yeah, be prepared. Things could
happen. Right. Exactly. And then the more urgent
alert is a tornado warning. What's the crucial
distinction there? What does that mean for folks?
So a tornado warning means that a tornado is
either occurring or is imminent based on radar
indications or visual confirmation. When a tornado
warning is issued for your specific location,
immediate shelter is absolutely essential. So
a warning means? Dangerous here or imminent.
Take shelter now. Got it. And folks, this is
really important. Mobile homes simply do not
provide adequate protection from strong tornadoes
like the ones that are possible today. Yeah,
that's a very good point. Mobile homes are particularly
vulnerable to damage even from lower end tornadoes.
And given the potential for EF2 or stronger tornadoes
within this high risk area, anyone residing in
a mobile home should make arrangements to seek
shelter in a robust site built structure, ideally
one with the below ground options such as a basement.
Yeah, so now this severe weather concern doesn't
conclude with tornado potential. We also face
a significant and unusually overlapping risk
of flash flooding. Let's dive into that a little
bit. Yeah, so this high GH risk for flash flooding
is anticipated for Thursday and Friday, and it
affects the same general area that is under the
tornado threat today. While a high risk for flash
flooding is issued somewhat more frequently than
for tornadoes about 4 % of the time, it's still
critical to understand that these events account
for a substantial portion of all flood -related
losses. Right. So what is the primary factor
driving this significant flood risk? Well, the
danger arises from what meteorologists term training
thunderstorms. You can picture a series of storms
repeatedly moving over the same track, in this
case, the same geographical locations, allowing
for heavy rainfall to accumulate over a relatively
short duration. And when we mention significant
rainfall, what kind of totals are we anticipating
here? So localized rainfall totals could reach
a very substantial 10 to 12 inches. Some computer
models are even indicating potential 24 -hour
totals exceeding 5 to 8 inches. particularly
across a corridor extending from Arkansas into
Western Kentucky. Wow, that's a lot of rain.
It is. And it sounds like this could be a sustained
event. It is. Total rainfall by the end of the
week could approach or even exceed a foot in
parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. And
when you consider that the ground in many of
these areas is already saturated from previous
rainfall, the risk of dangerous flash flooding
becomes even more pronounced. Yeah, so where's
the area of greatest concern for this intense
rainfall and flooding? The most intense rainfall
and the highest flood threat appear to be centered
around the intersection of Arkansas, Missouri,
Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Some forecasts
are even suggesting that this region could see
upwards of 15 inches of rain. The National Weather
Service in Paducah, Kentucky, used very strong
language suggesting this could be a generational
flooding event, potentially equaling two months
worth of typical rainfall in just a few days.
Oh my gosh, a generational flood that's something
you don't hear every day. What specific factors
make this potential flooding so historically
significant? Well, a stalled wetter front is
the key factor here. This front is acting like
a conduit, drawing a significant amount of moisture
directly from the Gulf of Mexico into the central
United States, providing the fuel for these repeated
heavy downpours. So let's take a step back for
a moment. We've discussed a high risk for tornadoes
followed by a high risk for flash flooding in
essentially the same area within a very short
period. How unusual is this kind of back -to
-back threat? This co -occurrence is indeed described
as an extremely unusual episode, and a significant
severe weather threat. It's not something you
see very often at all. And since the year 2000,
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Storm Prediction Center has only issued 66 high
-risk days for tornadoes nationwide. That really
highlights just how uncommon a high -risk designation
is, making today's situation all the more noteworthy.
So what kind of impacts are already being observed
and what can people in the affected areas anticipate?
We've already seen severe thunderstorms erupting
on Tuesday night across the central U .S. signaling
the beginning of this multi -day threat. Millions
of people from Texas all the way up to Illinois
are under some level of threat from this weather
system right now. And we're seeing the typical
responses you'd expect, right? Yeah, weather
alerts, including both watches and warnings for
severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, are being
issued across the central U .S. And it's important
to remember that some of these same areas were
recently impacted by deadly storms in mid -March
and even an ice storm in Miskin. So there's a
possibility of compounding impacts here. It's
sobering to think about communities potentially
facing both violent winds and then devastating
floods within such a short period. What specific
dangers should people be aware of regarding the
flash flooding threat later in the week? Well,
flash flooding can be incredibly dangerous. It
can inundate entire towns very quickly, and the
force of the water can easily sweep away vehicles.
it's crucial to never drive or walk through flood
waters. Yeah. Turn around, don't brown. Exactly.
That's really important advice. We also know
that severe weather often brings other challenges.
Right. Power outages are certainly possible due
to the severe theta storms with damaging winds
and potential tree damage. We saw widespread
outages recently in Michigan and Wisconsin following
ice storms. Oh, yeah. So that's a real concern
with this event as well. It sounds like communities
are already taking precautions. Yeah, we're hearing
reports of some schools in the affected areas
that have already arranged early dismissals for
students and canceled after -school activities
in anticipation of the severe weather. One final
point that's noteworthy is the location of some
of this heavy rainfall. OK. The heaviest rains
are currently forecast to fall in the new Madrid
seismic zone. For those unfamiliar, that's a
region with a history of significant earthquakes.
Researchers there are actively monitoring for
seismic events, and they are taking precautions
to protect their monitoring stations from the
potential flooding. That's interesting. Well,
this situation in the central US truly illustrates
the immense power and sometimes perilous nature
of our weather systems. The combination of a
high -end tornado threat immediately followed
by a significant risk of widespread and potentially
historic flooding underscores just how vital
it is to stay informed and to understand the
specific hazards that could impact your community.
That's the crucial point. While we've outlined
the major aspects of this developing weather
event based on the information available right
now, it's essential to remember that weather
conditions can and do change rapidly. Continuously
monitoring your local forecasts and immediately
heeding any warnings issued by the National Weather
Service are critical steps for your safety. Consider
what we've discussed today, the very rare occurrence
of this dual high -risk scenario and the potential
for substantial and far -reaching impacts. What
does an event like this suggest about the increasing
frequency of extreme weather events we seem to
be experiencing? It's certainly a question that
warrants your further consideration. For more
in -depth analysis and continuing updates, please
remember to follow Meteorologist Rob Jones on
Instagram, Meteorologist, on TikTok, TV Meteorologist,
and on YouTube follow Rob Jones Hurricane, where
you can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast
playlist.