WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.819 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. We're diving 00:00:02.819 --> 00:00:04.980 into some significant weather right now unfolding 00:00:04.980 --> 00:00:07.240 across the central United States. You've probably 00:00:07.240 --> 00:00:09.660 heard about severe weather, but what's noteworthy 00:00:09.660 --> 00:00:12.160 here is this combination of really high -level 00:00:12.160 --> 00:00:14.640 threats impacting the same general areas. What 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:16.719 do you think about this? Yeah, you know, it's 00:00:16.719 --> 00:00:19.359 definitely unusual. What makes this situation 00:00:19.359 --> 00:00:21.339 critical for you to understand is that we have 00:00:21.339 --> 00:00:24.320 a region facing a heightened likelihood of both 00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:27.120 intense tornadoes and dangerous flash flooding. 00:00:27.339 --> 00:00:29.640 potentially hitting back to back. This kind of 00:00:29.640 --> 00:00:32.219 dual high -risk scenario is something meteorologists 00:00:32.219 --> 00:00:35.079 only anticipate under very specific and frankly 00:00:35.079 --> 00:00:38.380 concerning atmospheric setups. Yeah, absolutely. 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:40.659 So in this Meteorology Matters, we're going to 00:00:40.659 --> 00:00:42.799 take a look at the atmospheric ingredients converging 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:45.259 to produce this risk. We'll pinpoint the communities 00:00:45.259 --> 00:00:47.780 most likely to experience the effects and we'll 00:00:47.780 --> 00:00:49.399 highlight what you need to be aware of to stay 00:00:49.399 --> 00:00:52.210 safe. For more detailed discussions and continuing 00:00:52.210 --> 00:00:54.630 updates, remember you can follow meteorologist 00:00:54.630 --> 00:00:57.390 Rob Jones on Instagram, Meteorologist on TikTok, 00:00:57.789 --> 00:01:00.250 TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube follow Rob Jones 00:01:00.250 --> 00:01:02.590 Hurricane, where you can also find the Meteorology 00:01:02.590 --> 00:01:05.879 Matters podcast playlist. Okay, let's get into 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:09.159 this. Beginning with the tornado concern, the 00:01:09.159 --> 00:01:11.859 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:01:11.859 --> 00:01:14.439 Storm Prediction Center has issued a high -inch 00:01:14.439 --> 00:01:17.400 risk for tornadoes for Wednesday. To really underscore 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:19.939 how infrequent this is, this level of alert statistically 00:01:19.939 --> 00:01:22.859 occurs less than 1 % of the time. This high -risk 00:01:22.859 --> 00:01:25.920 zone encompasses significant locations like Memphis, 00:01:26.040 --> 00:01:28.599 Paducah, and extends along a considerable portion 00:01:28.599 --> 00:01:30.620 of the Ohio River Valley. Do you think that's 00:01:30.620 --> 00:01:32.900 a good summation? Yeah, that sounds good. Yeah, 00:01:32.920 --> 00:01:35.060 and if you reside with within these designated 00:01:35.060 --> 00:01:37.939 high -risk zones today, your chances of experiencing 00:01:37.939 --> 00:01:40.500 a violent tornado are actually three times greater. 00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:43.439 It's a substantial increase. What's really driving 00:01:43.439 --> 00:01:45.959 this high risk is that conditions are expected 00:01:45.959 --> 00:01:48.480 to be highly conducive to the development of 00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:50.780 isolated supercell thunderstorms. Yeah, and those 00:01:50.780 --> 00:01:52.819 are rotating thunderstorms. Yeah, and those are 00:01:52.819 --> 00:01:54.980 the ones that can hold the greatest potential 00:01:54.980 --> 00:01:58.040 to generate the most severe weather. Okay, and 00:01:58.040 --> 00:02:00.299 these aren't your typical thunderstorms. We're 00:02:00.299 --> 00:02:02.900 talking about an increased likelihood of very 00:02:02.900 --> 00:02:05.230 large hail. possibly exceeding the size of golf 00:02:05.230 --> 00:02:08.229 balls, widespread damaging winds, and that considerable 00:02:08.229 --> 00:02:09.789 threat of tornadoes, and some of these could 00:02:09.789 --> 00:02:12.430 be quite powerful, potentially reaching EF2 or 00:02:12.430 --> 00:02:16.270 even EF3 plus intensity. Now, when we talk about 00:02:16.270 --> 00:02:18.990 EF2 and EF3, for someone just tuning in, what 00:02:18.990 --> 00:02:20.569 kind of damage are we talking about? What do 00:02:20.569 --> 00:02:23.330 those numbers mean? Yeah, so an EF2 tornado can 00:02:23.330 --> 00:02:27.479 cause significant damage. tearing roofs off well 00:02:27.479 --> 00:02:31.199 -built homes, overturning train cars. An EF3 00:02:31.199 --> 00:02:33.439 is even more intense, capable of causing severe 00:02:33.439 --> 00:02:36.039 damage to even sturdy buildings, leveling well 00:02:36.039 --> 00:02:38.219 -constructed homes, and throwing cars into the 00:02:38.219 --> 00:02:40.719 air. Oh wow, that really paints a picture. What's 00:02:40.719 --> 00:02:42.439 the time frame here that people should be aware 00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:44.919 of? So the critical period extends from the afternoon 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:47.900 hours into the evening, and in some areas this 00:02:47.900 --> 00:02:51.090 threat could even persist overnight. And it's 00:02:51.090 --> 00:02:53.370 really important for folks to remember that nighttime 00:02:53.370 --> 00:02:56.189 tornadoes pose a greater danger simply because 00:02:56.189 --> 00:02:58.310 visibility is reduced. Right, so then you can't 00:02:58.310 --> 00:03:01.289 really see it coming as easily. Exactly. So what 00:03:01.289 --> 00:03:03.689 kind of alerts should people be paying attention 00:03:03.689 --> 00:03:06.689 to? We're likely to see tornado watches issued 00:03:06.689 --> 00:03:09.090 perhaps in the early afternoon. In this kind 00:03:09.090 --> 00:03:12.129 of situation, what does a watch actually signify? 00:03:12.300 --> 00:03:15.340 Well, a tornado watch signifies that atmospheric 00:03:15.340 --> 00:03:17.780 conditions are favorable for the development 00:03:17.780 --> 00:03:20.319 of tornadic supercells within a relatively short 00:03:20.319 --> 00:03:22.860 time frame, perhaps within the next hour or two. 00:03:23.479 --> 00:03:26.000 It serves as a cue to be exceptionally vigilant, 00:03:26.659 --> 00:03:29.080 have your safety plan in readiness and stay tuned 00:03:29.080 --> 00:03:30.960 for further updates. Right. So it's kind of like 00:03:30.960 --> 00:03:32.939 be prepared. Yeah, be prepared. Things could 00:03:32.939 --> 00:03:35.840 happen. Right. Exactly. And then the more urgent 00:03:35.840 --> 00:03:38.979 alert is a tornado warning. What's the crucial 00:03:38.979 --> 00:03:40.800 distinction there? What does that mean for folks? 00:03:41.210 --> 00:03:44.110 So a tornado warning means that a tornado is 00:03:44.110 --> 00:03:46.849 either occurring or is imminent based on radar 00:03:46.849 --> 00:03:49.909 indications or visual confirmation. When a tornado 00:03:49.909 --> 00:03:52.150 warning is issued for your specific location, 00:03:52.810 --> 00:03:55.030 immediate shelter is absolutely essential. So 00:03:55.030 --> 00:03:57.710 a warning means? Dangerous here or imminent. 00:03:57.990 --> 00:04:00.610 Take shelter now. Got it. And folks, this is 00:04:00.610 --> 00:04:03.229 really important. Mobile homes simply do not 00:04:03.229 --> 00:04:05.590 provide adequate protection from strong tornadoes 00:04:05.590 --> 00:04:07.490 like the ones that are possible today. Yeah, 00:04:07.490 --> 00:04:09.770 that's a very good point. Mobile homes are particularly 00:04:09.770 --> 00:04:12.729 vulnerable to damage even from lower end tornadoes. 00:04:12.930 --> 00:04:15.629 And given the potential for EF2 or stronger tornadoes 00:04:15.629 --> 00:04:18.269 within this high risk area, anyone residing in 00:04:18.269 --> 00:04:20.290 a mobile home should make arrangements to seek 00:04:20.290 --> 00:04:24.250 shelter in a robust site built structure, ideally 00:04:24.250 --> 00:04:26.230 one with the below ground options such as a basement. 00:04:26.490 --> 00:04:29.089 Yeah, so now this severe weather concern doesn't 00:04:29.089 --> 00:04:32.029 conclude with tornado potential. We also face 00:04:32.029 --> 00:04:34.529 a significant and unusually overlapping risk 00:04:34.529 --> 00:04:37.089 of flash flooding. Let's dive into that a little 00:04:37.089 --> 00:04:40.209 bit. Yeah, so this high GH risk for flash flooding 00:04:40.209 --> 00:04:43.089 is anticipated for Thursday and Friday, and it 00:04:43.089 --> 00:04:45.149 affects the same general area that is under the 00:04:45.149 --> 00:04:48.209 tornado threat today. While a high risk for flash 00:04:48.209 --> 00:04:50.209 flooding is issued somewhat more frequently than 00:04:50.209 --> 00:04:52.829 for tornadoes about 4 % of the time, it's still 00:04:52.829 --> 00:04:54.689 critical to understand that these events account 00:04:54.689 --> 00:04:57.209 for a substantial portion of all flood -related 00:04:57.209 --> 00:04:59.769 losses. Right. So what is the primary factor 00:04:59.769 --> 00:05:02.350 driving this significant flood risk? Well, the 00:05:02.350 --> 00:05:05.550 danger arises from what meteorologists term training 00:05:05.550 --> 00:05:09.449 thunderstorms. You can picture a series of storms 00:05:09.449 --> 00:05:11.930 repeatedly moving over the same track, in this 00:05:11.930 --> 00:05:15.189 case, the same geographical locations, allowing 00:05:15.189 --> 00:05:18.569 for heavy rainfall to accumulate over a relatively 00:05:18.569 --> 00:05:21.550 short duration. And when we mention significant 00:05:21.550 --> 00:05:24.089 rainfall, what kind of totals are we anticipating 00:05:24.089 --> 00:05:26.930 here? So localized rainfall totals could reach 00:05:26.930 --> 00:05:30.449 a very substantial 10 to 12 inches. Some computer 00:05:30.449 --> 00:05:33.209 models are even indicating potential 24 -hour 00:05:33.209 --> 00:05:36.269 totals exceeding 5 to 8 inches. particularly 00:05:36.269 --> 00:05:39.149 across a corridor extending from Arkansas into 00:05:39.149 --> 00:05:41.230 Western Kentucky. Wow, that's a lot of rain. 00:05:41.470 --> 00:05:43.490 It is. And it sounds like this could be a sustained 00:05:43.490 --> 00:05:45.889 event. It is. Total rainfall by the end of the 00:05:45.889 --> 00:05:48.670 week could approach or even exceed a foot in 00:05:48.670 --> 00:05:51.269 parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. And 00:05:51.269 --> 00:05:52.970 when you consider that the ground in many of 00:05:52.970 --> 00:05:55.110 these areas is already saturated from previous 00:05:55.110 --> 00:05:57.829 rainfall, the risk of dangerous flash flooding 00:05:57.829 --> 00:06:00.860 becomes even more pronounced. Yeah, so where's 00:06:00.860 --> 00:06:03.139 the area of greatest concern for this intense 00:06:03.139 --> 00:06:05.699 rainfall and flooding? The most intense rainfall 00:06:05.699 --> 00:06:08.259 and the highest flood threat appear to be centered 00:06:08.259 --> 00:06:10.879 around the intersection of Arkansas, Missouri, 00:06:11.439 --> 00:06:14.759 Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Some forecasts 00:06:14.759 --> 00:06:16.720 are even suggesting that this region could see 00:06:16.720 --> 00:06:20.600 upwards of 15 inches of rain. The National Weather 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:23.259 Service in Paducah, Kentucky, used very strong 00:06:23.259 --> 00:06:25.759 language suggesting this could be a generational 00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:28.319 flooding event, potentially equaling two months 00:06:28.319 --> 00:06:30.459 worth of typical rainfall in just a few days. 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:32.399 Oh my gosh, a generational flood that's something 00:06:32.399 --> 00:06:35.540 you don't hear every day. What specific factors 00:06:35.540 --> 00:06:37.980 make this potential flooding so historically 00:06:37.980 --> 00:06:40.639 significant? Well, a stalled wetter front is 00:06:40.639 --> 00:06:43.370 the key factor here. This front is acting like 00:06:43.370 --> 00:06:45.829 a conduit, drawing a significant amount of moisture 00:06:45.829 --> 00:06:48.410 directly from the Gulf of Mexico into the central 00:06:48.410 --> 00:06:51.170 United States, providing the fuel for these repeated 00:06:51.170 --> 00:06:53.370 heavy downpours. So let's take a step back for 00:06:53.370 --> 00:06:55.910 a moment. We've discussed a high risk for tornadoes 00:06:55.910 --> 00:06:58.170 followed by a high risk for flash flooding in 00:06:58.170 --> 00:07:00.250 essentially the same area within a very short 00:07:00.250 --> 00:07:03.189 period. How unusual is this kind of back -to 00:07:03.189 --> 00:07:06.050 -back threat? This co -occurrence is indeed described 00:07:06.050 --> 00:07:10.699 as an extremely unusual episode, and a significant 00:07:10.699 --> 00:07:12.920 severe weather threat. It's not something you 00:07:12.920 --> 00:07:15.319 see very often at all. And since the year 2000, 00:07:15.540 --> 00:07:17.860 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:07:17.860 --> 00:07:22.000 Storm Prediction Center has only issued 66 high 00:07:22.000 --> 00:07:25.139 -risk days for tornadoes nationwide. That really 00:07:25.139 --> 00:07:28.800 highlights just how uncommon a high -risk designation 00:07:28.800 --> 00:07:32.319 is, making today's situation all the more noteworthy. 00:07:32.379 --> 00:07:35.339 So what kind of impacts are already being observed 00:07:35.339 --> 00:07:38.120 and what can people in the affected areas anticipate? 00:07:38.420 --> 00:07:40.860 We've already seen severe thunderstorms erupting 00:07:40.860 --> 00:07:43.079 on Tuesday night across the central U .S. signaling 00:07:43.079 --> 00:07:45.959 the beginning of this multi -day threat. Millions 00:07:45.959 --> 00:07:48.620 of people from Texas all the way up to Illinois 00:07:48.620 --> 00:07:50.620 are under some level of threat from this weather 00:07:50.620 --> 00:07:52.339 system right now. And we're seeing the typical 00:07:52.339 --> 00:07:54.500 responses you'd expect, right? Yeah, weather 00:07:54.500 --> 00:07:57.000 alerts, including both watches and warnings for 00:07:57.000 --> 00:07:58.839 severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, are being 00:07:58.839 --> 00:08:01.459 issued across the central U .S. And it's important 00:08:01.459 --> 00:08:03.459 to remember that some of these same areas were 00:08:03.459 --> 00:08:05.800 recently impacted by deadly storms in mid -March 00:08:05.800 --> 00:08:08.040 and even an ice storm in Miskin. So there's a 00:08:08.040 --> 00:08:10.980 possibility of compounding impacts here. It's 00:08:10.980 --> 00:08:12.699 sobering to think about communities potentially 00:08:12.699 --> 00:08:15.439 facing both violent winds and then devastating 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:18.439 floods within such a short period. What specific 00:08:18.439 --> 00:08:20.980 dangers should people be aware of regarding the 00:08:20.980 --> 00:08:22.939 flash flooding threat later in the week? Well, 00:08:23.040 --> 00:08:25.379 flash flooding can be incredibly dangerous. It 00:08:25.379 --> 00:08:28.779 can inundate entire towns very quickly, and the 00:08:28.779 --> 00:08:31.240 force of the water can easily sweep away vehicles. 00:08:31.660 --> 00:08:34.360 it's crucial to never drive or walk through flood 00:08:34.360 --> 00:08:37.620 waters. Yeah. Turn around, don't brown. Exactly. 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:40.759 That's really important advice. We also know 00:08:40.759 --> 00:08:43.600 that severe weather often brings other challenges. 00:08:44.000 --> 00:08:46.120 Right. Power outages are certainly possible due 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:48.960 to the severe theta storms with damaging winds 00:08:48.960 --> 00:08:51.360 and potential tree damage. We saw widespread 00:08:51.360 --> 00:08:54.159 outages recently in Michigan and Wisconsin following 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:56.399 ice storms. Oh, yeah. So that's a real concern 00:08:56.399 --> 00:08:59.360 with this event as well. It sounds like communities 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:02.000 are already taking precautions. Yeah, we're hearing 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:03.919 reports of some schools in the affected areas 00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:06.360 that have already arranged early dismissals for 00:09:06.360 --> 00:09:08.620 students and canceled after -school activities 00:09:08.620 --> 00:09:12.440 in anticipation of the severe weather. One final 00:09:12.440 --> 00:09:14.379 point that's noteworthy is the location of some 00:09:14.379 --> 00:09:17.159 of this heavy rainfall. OK. The heaviest rains 00:09:17.159 --> 00:09:19.600 are currently forecast to fall in the new Madrid 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:22.220 seismic zone. For those unfamiliar, that's a 00:09:22.220 --> 00:09:24.559 region with a history of significant earthquakes. 00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:27.740 Researchers there are actively monitoring for 00:09:27.740 --> 00:09:30.039 seismic events, and they are taking precautions 00:09:30.039 --> 00:09:32.340 to protect their monitoring stations from the 00:09:32.340 --> 00:09:34.399 potential flooding. That's interesting. Well, 00:09:35.139 --> 00:09:38.120 this situation in the central US truly illustrates 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:40.919 the immense power and sometimes perilous nature 00:09:40.919 --> 00:09:43.340 of our weather systems. The combination of a 00:09:43.340 --> 00:09:45.360 high -end tornado threat immediately followed 00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:48.299 by a significant risk of widespread and potentially 00:09:48.299 --> 00:09:51.179 historic flooding underscores just how vital 00:09:51.179 --> 00:09:53.279 it is to stay informed and to understand the 00:09:53.279 --> 00:09:55.879 specific hazards that could impact your community. 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:58.600 That's the crucial point. While we've outlined 00:09:58.600 --> 00:10:00.419 the major aspects of this developing weather 00:10:00.419 --> 00:10:02.480 event based on the information available right 00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:04.700 now, it's essential to remember that weather 00:10:04.700 --> 00:10:08.200 conditions can and do change rapidly. Continuously 00:10:08.200 --> 00:10:10.419 monitoring your local forecasts and immediately 00:10:10.419 --> 00:10:12.580 heeding any warnings issued by the National Weather 00:10:12.580 --> 00:10:15.759 Service are critical steps for your safety. Consider 00:10:15.759 --> 00:10:18.139 what we've discussed today, the very rare occurrence 00:10:18.139 --> 00:10:21.179 of this dual high -risk scenario and the potential 00:10:21.179 --> 00:10:23.759 for substantial and far -reaching impacts. What 00:10:23.759 --> 00:10:26.460 does an event like this suggest about the increasing 00:10:26.460 --> 00:10:28.940 frequency of extreme weather events we seem to 00:10:28.940 --> 00:10:31.500 be experiencing? It's certainly a question that 00:10:31.500 --> 00:10:33.820 warrants your further consideration. For more 00:10:33.820 --> 00:10:36.100 in -depth analysis and continuing updates, please 00:10:36.100 --> 00:10:38.350 remember to follow Meteorologist Rob Jones on 00:10:38.350 --> 00:10:42.070 Instagram, Meteorologist, on TikTok, TV Meteorologist, 00:10:42.289 --> 00:10:44.690 and on YouTube follow Rob Jones Hurricane, where 00:10:44.690 --> 00:10:46.950 you can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast 00:10:46.950 --> 00:10:47.330 playlist.