Welcome to Meteorology Matters. Today, we're
going to take a very close look at Hurricane
Milton, a truly remarkable storm. Definitely
remarkable. That impacted the Gulf of Mexico
and Florida back in October 2024. Yeah, October
2024. A lot of people remember that one. Our
information today comes directly from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National
Hurricane Center. Yep, straight from the source.
And we have a very, very detailed report here
covering every aspect of Milton from its initial
beginnings way out in the Atlantic way out there
to its eventual dissipation right and of course
a thorough analysis of its meteorological characteristics
and the significant impact that it had on coastal
communities that's right yeah all the data is
here absolutely so we've got a wealth of information
here to unpack yeah we do the entire lifecycle
of the storm those detailed meteorological readings
the effects that were felt on the ground and
even a look at the challenges that the forecasters
faced. Our mission today is to really extract
the key insights from this complex event and
really try to understand what made Hurricane
Milton so noteworthy. Yeah, that's the goal.
What made it so unique? And if you find this
kind of deep dive into meteorology fascinating,
be sure to follow meteorologist Rob Jones on
Instagram, meteorologist on TikTok, TV Meteorologist,
and on YouTube, follow Rod Jones Hurricane, where
you can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast
playlist. Absolutely. Great resources. OK. So
let's start at the very beginning. Right. Milton's
birth was quite complex, involving multiple tropical
waves that originated off the coast of Africa
back in mid -September of 2024. Yeah, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report
notes that the initial wave emerged, oh around
September 14th or so, and it didn't show much
in the way of organized thunderstorms or what
we call convection. Right. But what's interesting
is that The interaction of this wave with a pre
-existing low pressure system near Cabo Verde,
you know that group of islands off the coast
of Africa, that interaction seems to have been
a crucial first step in giving the storm some
initial structure. So it needed that boost, that
extra little push. It seems like it, yeah. And
then just a few days later around September 18th,
a second tropical wave moved off the African
coast. And it looks like this second wave acted
as a real catalyst, leading to a more defined
wave by September 22nd, as it tracked westward
across the Atlantic. Right, so now you've got
these two waves kind of merging, and that creates
a more significant area of atmospheric instability
and rotation, the ingredients you need for something
bigger to form. Yeah, it's like these initial
atmospheric ripples needed to combine in just
the right way to really get things going. It's
a bit like that. Yeah, sometimes you need more
than one ingredient. to start a reaction, right?
Yeah, exactly. And this is a great example of
how these seemingly independent weather disturbances
can merge and set the stage for something much
larger. It really is fascinating. It is. The
report notes that this combined wave reached
the lesser Antilles around September 26th, bringing
increased but still disorganized thunderstorm
activity. Right. Then it kind of meandered across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea for a couple
of days without any significant strengthening.
So it was swirling. but not quite locking in.
Yeah, and that's pretty typical in those early
stages. They need to find those right conditions.
So you have warm ocean waters, low wind shear,
to really start to organize and draw in energy.
Right. That disorganized convection tells us
that those crucial ingredients weren't quite
aligned just yet. Okay, so here's where it gets
really interesting for me. Okay. When the wave
reached the Western Caribbean Sea, around September
29th. It interacted with this broad area of low
pressure, the remnants of what's called the Central
American Gyre. Yeah, the gyre. Now this gyre
had previously helped to spin up Hurricane Helene
in the Caribbean. and Hurricane John way over
in the Eastern Pacific. Yeah. So this thing had
quite a pedigree. It did. It's like one big weather
system can have these ripple effects across entire
ocean basins. Yeah, that's a great way to think
about it. It is fascinating. It is. These large
scale atmospheric patterns like the Central American
gyre, they can act as steering mechanisms and
also create favorable conditions for smaller
disturbances to develop. OK. Think of the gyre
as a giant slow spinning weather system that
can sometimes catch these smaller disturbances
and give them a spin, much like you see a larger
eddy in a river can affect those smaller currents.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Report really emphasizes how significant a role
this played in Milton's development. Wow. Yeah.
By October 1st, this interaction led to a low
level trough, kind of an elongated area of low
pressure, extending from the Bay of Campeche
northeastward toward the central Gulf of Mexico.
Now, this was also interacting with a frontal
system over the Eastern Gulf. Yeah, you got a
lot going on. It sounds like a real meteorological
melting pot with different air masses and weather
systems all bumping into each other. Yeah, precisely.
You have different air masses with varying temperatures,
moisture content, and they're all interacting.
Sometimes these interactions can inhibit tropical
development. OK. But in Milton's case, it seems
the remnants of that storm from the eastern Pacific
played a particularly important role in jumpstarting
the process. So that was really the key. It appears
so. Right. By October 3rd. a north -south oriented
trough formed over the western gulf. And get
this, it had two areas of concentrated spin,
what meteorologists call vorticity centers. Yeah,
two centers of rotation. The northern one weakened,
but the southern center really took off, likely
because it interacted with the remnants of an
unnamed tropical storm that had crossed Mexico
from the eastern Pacific. Yeah, so yet another
factor contributing to Milton's development.
It's almost like that Pacific storm handed off
some energy to the developing system in the Gulf.
That's a great way to put it. Isn't that interesting?
It really highlights how hurricane formation
can be this multi -stage process where existing
atmospheric disturbances, they can contribute
energy and rotation. It's not always straightforward.
And so finally, on October 5th, about 135 nautical
miles east of Tampico, Mexico, it officially
became a tropical depression. There it is. The
genesis, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration report clearly shows, was a rather
involved and multi -faceted process. It really
underscores just how intricate the birth of a
hurricane can be. Yeah. With so many different
atmospheric players and interactions needing
to align in just the right way. Absolutely. So
now that we've got our tropical depression, let's
move on to how it started to move. Okay. And
more importantly, how it intensified. Right.
So initially, tropical depression Milton moved
slowly northward through the early hours of October
6th. Uh -huh. But then likely due to increasing
air pressure to the north. Right. and the continued
influence of that front and another nearby vorticity
center, it shifted to a slow eastward movement.
It kind of got nudged. It was almost as if it
bumped into an invisible wall up north and had
to change direction. It's a good way to visualize
it. That eastward turn was quite notable and
somewhat unusual for a storm in the Gulf of Mexico
during that time of year. Yeah, typically, you
know high pressure systems steer storms westward
in that region, right? So the fact that Milton
moved eastward suggests a really complex interplay
of different pressure systems and steering currents
Okay, and during this eastward journey Milton
steadily strengthened reaching hurricane strength
by the evening of October 6th Well located west
northwest of marital Mexico. Uh -huh. So it's
gradually gathering strength over that warm Gulf
water Yeah, the Gulf of Mexico at that time likely
had very warm sea surface temperatures. And that
provides the primary fuel for tropical cyclones.
And coupled with relatively low amounts of vertical
wind shear, that's when the wind speed or direction
changes significantly with height. So the environment
was really conducive for steady intensification.
It had everything it needed. But then came the
really dramatic changes. Well, yeah. Early on
October 7th, Milton took a sharp turn to the
East -Southeast, and this coincided with what
the report calls explosive intensification. Explosive,
that's the word for it. The central pressure
plummeted from 977 millibars down to an estimated
895 millibars in about 17 hours. Wow. That is
an incredible rate of intensification. It is
an 82 millibar drop in atmospheric pressure in
such a short period that really signifies an
extremely rapid organization of the storm's internal
structure. The report mentions that the peak
sustained winds reached an estimated 155 knots
around 8 PM UTC on October 7th, while the storm
was northwest of Merida. And get this. That minimum
central pressure of 895 millibars tied Hurricane
Rita of 2005 for the fourth lowest central pressure
ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane. It's
in some pretty elite company. We're talking about
a storm that at its peak was among the most intense
ever observed in this basin. Absolutely. Only
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, Hurricane Gilbert in
1988, and the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 had
lower central pressures. So earlier I was asking
about what specific conditions really aligned
for that rapid pressure drop. Yeah, what came
together to cause that. So can you elaborate
on that a little bit? Sure. So it likely involved
a combination of factors. You had those exceptionally
warm sea surface temperatures, very low vertical
wind shear, allowing that storm structure to
organize unimpeded. Okay. And perhaps some favorable
upper level atmospheric features that help to
vent air out of the top of the storm, further
lowering the pressure at the surface. So everything
just really came together perfectly. It did.
It was a perfect recipe for intensification.
But as often happens with these very intense
storms, a weakening phase followed. Hurricane
Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle
while it was tracking eastward near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Right. This brought tropical storm
conditions to the coast, but kept the most intense
hurricane force winds just offshore. So can I
ask, can you explain what an eyewall replacement
cycle is, and why it leads to weakening? Sure,
so the eyewall is that ring of intense thunderstorms
surrounding the eye of the hurricane. Right,
where you find the strongest winds. Exactly.
In very intense hurricanes, a secondary eyewall
can sometimes form outside the original eyewall.
When this happens, the outer eye wall gradually
contracts inward, eventually replacing the inner
eye wall. During this process, the storm structure
becomes less organized, leading to a temporary
weakening of the maximum sustained winds. So
it has to kind of rebuild itself? Exactly. Once
the new, larger eye wall becomes fully established,
the hurricane can sometimes re -intensify. although
not always to its previous peak intensity. That's
not guaranteed. Right. Interesting. So it's like
the storm has to rebuild its core. Yeah, that's
a good analogy. And then starting on October
8th, the movement became quite erratic, shifting
east northeastward. Yeah, unpredictable. This
coincided with a low pressure system over the
northeastern Gulf moving out into the Atlantic.
and a ridge of high pressure building in. Oh,
wow, so the steering currents were shifting.
It sounds like the atmospheric steering forces
were constantly changing. Yeah, the departure
of that low pressure system and the strengthening
of the high pressure ridge, they created this
new set of forces influencing Hurricane Milton's
track, leading to that more easterly and then
northeasterly component in its movement. Yeah.
So you've got the internal reorganization from
the eyewall replacement and these shifting external
steering forces. Right. The storm's path really
became quite unpredictable for a time. Really
hard to forecast at that point. Yeah, definitely.
It was keeping the forecasters on their toes.
And sure enough, after that Iowa replacement
cycle completed, Hurricane Milton did re -intensify,
reaching sustained winds of 145 knots on the
evening of October 8th. Okay. followed by more
fluctuations in intensity. Open down. This storm
certainly kept forecasters on their toes. It
absolutely did. These intensity fluctuations,
they can be very challenging to predict accurately.
They depend on this delicate balance of the hurricane's
internal dynamics, like those eyewall cycles,
and the constantly evolving external environmental
conditions, such as sea surface temperatures
and upper level winds. So a lot of things can
affect the intensity. A lot of moving parts.
Then around 6 a .m. UTC on October 9, stronger
southwesterly winds in the upper atmosphere,
what we call increased vertical wind shear. caused
it to accelerate northeastward over cooler waters.
Right, so wind shear can really disrupt a hurricane.
This led to rapid weakening of the storm, although
its overall size actually increased. Interesting.
So it was losing some of its punch in terms of
maximum winds, but becoming a broader storm system.
Okay, so like spreading the same amount of energy
over a larger area. Exactly. That increased wind
shear started to disrupt the hurricane's vertical
structure, essentially tearing at its organized
core. At the same time as it moved over cooler
waters, its primary energy source was diminishing,
leading to that rapid weakening. However, the
storm's overall wind field expanded, meaning
a larger area was experiencing tropical storm
force winds, even as those core winds decreased.
And finally, the climax? Landfall. Landfall is
a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained
winds near 100 knots on Siesta Key, Florida,
at 12 .02 a .m. UTC on October 10th. So still
a major hurricane at landfall it had maintained
major hurricane status. That's category three
or higher. Uh -huh right up to the coast Wow
which is a testament to his power. It really
is. Landing as a category three hurricane still
signifies a very dangerous storm, capable of
causing widespread and significant damage from
those powerful winds. Right. That substantial
storm surge and the heavy rainfall siesta key
and the surrounding coastal communities or the
initial brunt of those intense conditions. Then
it continued its east northeastward trek across
the Florida peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic
Ocean near Cape Canaveral by 8 a .m. UTC on October
10th. Right. From there, it underwent what's
called extratropical transition and eventually
dissipated a few hundred nautical miles south
of Bermuda by March 12th. Wow, that's a long
life. That's a remarkably long lifespan for a
single storm system. It is. Can you briefly explain
what extratropical transition means? Sure. Extratropical
transition is when a tropical cyclone loses its
warm core characteristics and transforms into
a mid -latitude storm, similar to the nor 'easters
we see up here in the northeast. This typically
happens when the storm moves over colder waters
or interacts with strong upper level winds and
fronts, which are more characteristic of those
mid -latitude weather systems. So it essentially
becomes a different type of storm. So it loses
its tropi - characteristics exactly okay now
let's dive into some of those key meteorological
statistics that really highlight hurricane Milton's
intensity and impact yeah the numbers tell the
story The peak intensity, as we discussed, reached
category five status with those estimated sustained
winds of 155 knots. Yeah. And that minimum central
pressure of 895 millibars, incredibly low reading.
Really is. And even at landfall, it was still
a significant category three storm. Right. With
100 knot winds and an estimated minimum pressure
of 958 millibars. Still packing a punch. Even
after some weakening, it was still a very formidable
force. Absolutely. A category three hurricane
can still inflict widespread damage to buildings,
infrastructure, vegetation due to those intense
winds. Right. And it poses a significant threat
from storm surge and heavy rainfall. The highest
sustained wind speed reported on land in Florida
was 79 knots. Wow. with gusts up to 93 knots
recorded at Venice Beach. So you can just imagine
the force of those winds. That gives you a real
sense of the powerful winds that directly impact
at the coastline. It does. Can you quickly explain
the difference between sustained winds and gusts?
Sure. Sustained winds are the average wind speed
over a certain period, typically one minute.
Alright. Gusts, on the other hand, are brief,
sudden increases in wind speed above that sustained
wind. Gotcha. So gusts are what often cause more
localized and sudden damage. OK. Like snapping
tree limbs or tearing off shingles. OK. So while
the sustained winds give you an overall measure
of the storm's strength, the gusts really represent
that peak force that structures might experience.
Right. So it's the gusts that do the most damage.
Often, yes. Then there was the very significant
storm surge along the central to southwest Florida
Gulf Coast. Yeah, the surge was a major factor.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
report indicates surge heights of six to nine
feet above ground level from Venice to Boca Grande.
with an isolated peak of up to 10 feet near Minnesota
Key. Wow. Just the sheer power of that much water.
I know it's hard to imagine. Inundating coastal
areas is hard to imagine. It is, and storm surge,
that abnormal rise of water generated by a storm,
is often the deadliest and most destructive aspect
of a hurricane. Yeah. These inundation levels,
they can cause catastrophic damage to homes,
businesses, infrastructure, located in those
low -lying coastal regions. Right. Port also
makes an important point that the actual height
of the waves on top of the surge would have been
significantly higher. Wow. Leading to even greater
impacts. And the rainfall totals in some areas
were just extraordinary. The rain was relentless.
The maximum recorded in Florida was a staggering
20 .40 inches. Wow. Near St. Petersburg. That's
a lot of rain. Which led to widespread river
and urban flooding. Oh, yeah. Including record
high water levels on the Hillsborough River.
Yeah, such high amounts of rainfall over a relatively
short period can quickly overwhelm those drainage
systems, leading to significant freshwater flooding.
This can occur far inland from the coast and
cause substantial damage to property and infrastructure
as we saw with those record river crests. Absolutely.
And there was also a pocket of very heavy rain
near Vero Beach with over 11 inches reported.
So widespread heavy rain. But perhaps one of
the most notable and sadly destructive aspects
of Hurricane Milton was the very significant
tornado outbreak that occurred over southern
and central Florida on October 9th. Yeah, the
tornadoes were a big part of the story. The report
documents an astonishing 45 confirmed tornadoes
on land. Forty -five? That's unbelievable. As
well as one water spout. Yeah, that's an unusually
high number of tornadoes associated with a single
tropical cyclone. Really is. It's not something
you see every day. No, not at all. In fact, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
report highlights that Hurricane Milton was the
first tropical cyclone on record to produce more
than one EF3 tornado. Wow. So that's a significant
and concerning statistic. It really is. And tornadoes
spawned by hurricanes. They're often relatively
short lived and can be very difficult to predict
with precision. Right. However, as we tragically
saw with Hurricane Milton, they can really significantly
increase the overall damage and pose a very serious
threat to life, particularly from those stronger
tornadoes like the EF3s. And we saw three EF3
tornadoes, six EF2s, 25. EF -1s and seven EF
-0 tornadoes. So a range of intensities. Tragically,
the strongest EF -3 tornado which struck near
Fort Pierce in Vero Beach caused fatalities.
Yeah, a very sad outcome. Adding another layer
of devastation to this event. So now shifting
our focus to the human impact. No. The casualty
and damage statistics really paint a stark and
sobering picture of Hurricane Milton's consequences.
They certainly do. The report confirms 15 direct
deaths attributed to the storm, 12 in the US,
all within Florida. And these included fatalities
from the tornadoes, falling trees, and flooding.
Yeah, the storm surge. In Mexico, there were
three direct deaths reported due to dangerous
high surf conditions and a boating accident.
Right. Sadly, six people were also reported missing
from a fishing boat off the coast of Mexico.
So the impact was felt in both countries. It
was a wide -reaching event. And beyond the immediate
and direct fatalities, there were 27 indirect
deaths reported in the U .S., again all in Florida.
Yeah, the indirect impacts can be significant
as well. These tragic incidents were linked to
various factors, such as health issues experienced
during that intense preparation and cleanup phase,
falls, car accidents, hazards from downed power
lines, a fire that was started by storm surge,
and even a fatal injury from a falling tree limb
after the storm had passed. So the dangers can
persist even after the storm is gone. It really
underscores the long -lasting and far -reaching
dangers associated with such a major hurricane
event. Absolutely. The estimated total damage
in the United States reached a staggering $34
.3 billion. $34 .3 billion? That's hard to fathom.
With almost all of that devastation occurring
within the state of Florida. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration report also notes
that conducting accurate damage assessments was
made more complicated by the fact that Hurricane
Helene had impacted some of the same areas just
two weeks prior. Oh wow, so back -to -back hurricanes.
That must have significantly hampered recovery
efforts for those communities. Yeah, the cumulative
impact of experiencing two significant hurricanes
and such close succession can be truly devastating
for these regions. It really strains resources,
complicates recovery logistics, and can have
a profound and prolonged impact on residents
and the local economy. That immense financial
toll of $34 .3 billion really highlights the
significant economic consequences that these
powerful storms can inflict. Yeah, absolutely.
One particularly striking example of the damage
was to to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.
Oh yeah, I remember hearing about that. Where
a significant portion of the fabric roof was
ripped off by those intense winds, leading to
substantial water damage inside the stadium.
Wow, it's a vivid reminder of the sheer force
of hurricane strength winds. It is a stark reminder
of nature's power. Now let's move on to a really
critical aspect. How well did forecasters predict
this complex storm? Alright, the forecast challenge.
This is always a crucial area of review and analysis
following any significant weather event. It is.
We learn from every storm. And the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration report provides
a very detailed critique of the forecasts and
warnings associated with Hurricane Milton. Okay,
let's break it down. Starting with its formation,
or Genesis, it seems that predicting Milton's
birth was a significant challenge for forecasters.
Yeah, the early stages can be tricky. The report
is quite direct, stating that the Genesis forecast
was very poorly forecast. Oh, wow. In terms of
both when and where the storm would actually
develop. So they didn't see it coming. Initial
forecasts had suggested potential development
in the Caribbean Sea. and there was considerable
inconsistency among the various computer weather
models regarding which specific atmospheric disturbance
would ultimately organize into a tropical cyclone.
So the models were struggling? Yeah, and the
proximity of a frontal system? Right. And the
influence of the upper level winds, the westerlies?
Yeah. Added a significant layer of complexity
to the forecasting situation. Should be real
wild carts. These factors can either inhibit
or promote tropical development. Right. And it
seems they created a lot of uncertainty in the
models leading up to Milton's formation. So a
lot of uncertainty in those early days. The probabilities
for development in the tropical weather outlook,
which is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
fluctuated quite a bit during this period. So
it was a tough one to nail down. Turning to the
track forecast. OK. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration report indicates that
the official track forecast errors were slightly
higher than the average for the previous five
years for shorter forecast lead times. So not
so good in the short term. But they were actually
better than average for the longer range forecasts.
Interesting. So they got the long term better
than the short term. Overall, the forecast generally
captured the eastward and then northeastward
motion of the storm. but there was a tendency
for a slight northward bias in the predicted
path. So they had it going a little too far north.
Despite that tendency to forecast the storm slightly
too far north. Right. It's important to highlight
that the official forecasts did consistently
indicate a landfall in the general Sarasota Tampa
Bay area of Florida's Gulf Coast. Okay. Which
in the end proved to be reasonably accurate in
terms of the overall location of the landfall.
So they got the general area right. Now it appears
that forecasting the intensity of Hurricane Milton
presented the biggest challenges. Yeah, intensity
is always tricky. The report shows that the official
intensity forecast errors were significantly
higher than the average. So they underestimated
its strength. This was primarily due to the underestimation
of that very rapid intensification we saw occur
between October 5th and 7th. Right, that explosive
intensification. Why do you think the rapid intensification
was so difficult to predict? Well, the rapid
intensification was likely difficult to predict
due to that complex interplay of factors we discussed
earlier, such as the interaction with the frontal
system and the vertical wind shear. It seems
that the regional hurricane models, which have
a higher resolution, and can sometimes capture
smaller scale atmospheric features more effectively.
They actually performed better in forecasting
that rapid intensification phase compared to
the official forecast. So the regional models
did a better job? In that specific instance,
it appears so. However, the subsequent weakening
of the storm as it approached Florida was generally
forecast quite well. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration report does emphasize
that despite the challenges with predicting the
rapid intensification, their forecasts consistently
communicated the threat of a major hurricane
making landfall along the Florida West Coast
right from the very first advisory. So they were
warning people of the potential danger. Which
is crucial for public safety. Absolutely. That
consistent messaging about the potential for
a major hurricane. even with some uncertainty
in the precise intensity is so vital for prompting
the public to take necessary preparedness actions.
Yeah, like heating evacuation orders. It's all
about giving people the information they need
to make informed decisions. OK, let's talk about
the tropical cyclone watches and warnings that
were issued. OK, the watches and warnings. For
the area that ultimately experienced landfall
on the Florida West Coast. A hurricane watch
was issued 54 hours before tropical storm force
winds arrived. Okay, that's a good lead time.
And the more urgent hurricane warning was issued
42 hours before. So plenty of time to prepare.
Those lead times seem pretty significant for
allowing people time to prepare. They are. Those
lead times are generally considered adequate
to allow communities to take the necessary precautions.
Things like securing property, stocking up on
supplies, and evacuating if ordered to do so.
Absolutely. And hurricane warnings were also
issued for the Florida East Coast in anticipation
of the storm emerging back into the Atlantic.
Right. Covering all the bases. Which proved to
be a necessary step. It did. The report also
mentions that Mexico issued tropical cyclone
watches and warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.
as Hurricane Milton approached. However, the
northward bias in the track forecasts meant that
some of these warnings had to be adjusted as
the storm's actual path became clearer. Yeah,
that unpredictable track was a challenge. This
really highlights the challenges of forecasting
a storm with such an unusual and at times erratic
track. Yeah, definitely it kept the forecasters
on their toes. And... regarding the crucial storm
surge threat. Right the surge. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration. issued both storm
surge watches and storm surge warnings. Okay.
For a significant portion of the Florida Gulf
Coast. The vulnerable areas. These were issued
with similar lead times to the hurricane watches
and warnings. Okay, good to have that consistency.
The report notes that the area covered by the
storm surge warning effectively encompassed the
coastal areas that experienced the most significant
surge. So the warnings were well placed. The
forecast for the peak storm surge in Tampa Bay
presented a particular challenge for forecasters
due to the track sensitivity. Yeah, track sensitivity
can be a real issue with storm surge forecasting.
The report mentions that even a slight shift
in the landfall location, either to the north
or south, could have had major implications for
the magnitude of the storm surge experienced
in Tampa Bay. Absolutely. A small shift in track
can mean a big difference in surge. As a result,
forecasters had to make multiple adjustments
to the storm surge forecast as the track became
clear in the final hours leading up to landfall.