WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.740 Welcome to Meteorology Matters. Today, we're 00:00:02.740 --> 00:00:04.719 going to take a very close look at Hurricane 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:07.879 Milton, a truly remarkable storm. Definitely 00:00:07.879 --> 00:00:10.039 remarkable. That impacted the Gulf of Mexico 00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:13.339 and Florida back in October 2024. Yeah, October 00:00:13.339 --> 00:00:15.779 2024. A lot of people remember that one. Our 00:00:15.779 --> 00:00:17.899 information today comes directly from the National 00:00:17.899 --> 00:00:20.640 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National 00:00:20.640 --> 00:00:22.839 Hurricane Center. Yep, straight from the source. 00:00:23.559 --> 00:00:26.699 And we have a very, very detailed report here 00:00:26.699 --> 00:00:30.769 covering every aspect of Milton from its initial 00:00:30.769 --> 00:00:33.770 beginnings way out in the Atlantic way out there 00:00:33.770 --> 00:00:37.030 to its eventual dissipation right and of course 00:00:37.030 --> 00:00:39.990 a thorough analysis of its meteorological characteristics 00:00:39.990 --> 00:00:43.390 and the significant impact that it had on coastal 00:00:43.390 --> 00:00:46.149 communities that's right yeah all the data is 00:00:46.149 --> 00:00:48.630 here absolutely so we've got a wealth of information 00:00:48.630 --> 00:00:51.229 here to unpack yeah we do the entire lifecycle 00:00:51.229 --> 00:00:54.149 of the storm those detailed meteorological readings 00:00:54.149 --> 00:00:57.200 the effects that were felt on the ground and 00:00:57.200 --> 00:01:00.100 even a look at the challenges that the forecasters 00:01:00.100 --> 00:01:03.259 faced. Our mission today is to really extract 00:01:03.259 --> 00:01:06.939 the key insights from this complex event and 00:01:06.939 --> 00:01:09.359 really try to understand what made Hurricane 00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:11.739 Milton so noteworthy. Yeah, that's the goal. 00:01:11.739 --> 00:01:13.980 What made it so unique? And if you find this 00:01:13.980 --> 00:01:16.280 kind of deep dive into meteorology fascinating, 00:01:16.739 --> 00:01:18.939 be sure to follow meteorologist Rob Jones on 00:01:18.939 --> 00:01:23.819 Instagram, meteorologist on TikTok, TV Meteorologist, 00:01:24.219 --> 00:01:26.799 and on YouTube, follow Rod Jones Hurricane, where 00:01:26.799 --> 00:01:28.939 you can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast 00:01:28.939 --> 00:01:31.519 playlist. Absolutely. Great resources. OK. So 00:01:31.519 --> 00:01:33.739 let's start at the very beginning. Right. Milton's 00:01:33.739 --> 00:01:37.480 birth was quite complex, involving multiple tropical 00:01:37.480 --> 00:01:39.739 waves that originated off the coast of Africa 00:01:39.739 --> 00:01:43.230 back in mid -September of 2024. Yeah, the National 00:01:43.230 --> 00:01:45.689 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report 00:01:45.689 --> 00:01:48.090 notes that the initial wave emerged, oh around 00:01:48.090 --> 00:01:51.209 September 14th or so, and it didn't show much 00:01:51.209 --> 00:01:53.510 in the way of organized thunderstorms or what 00:01:53.510 --> 00:01:55.609 we call convection. Right. But what's interesting 00:01:55.609 --> 00:01:58.340 is that The interaction of this wave with a pre 00:01:58.340 --> 00:02:00.780 -existing low pressure system near Cabo Verde, 00:02:01.239 --> 00:02:02.459 you know that group of islands off the coast 00:02:02.459 --> 00:02:04.540 of Africa, that interaction seems to have been 00:02:04.540 --> 00:02:06.939 a crucial first step in giving the storm some 00:02:06.939 --> 00:02:09.639 initial structure. So it needed that boost, that 00:02:09.639 --> 00:02:11.780 extra little push. It seems like it, yeah. And 00:02:11.780 --> 00:02:14.379 then just a few days later around September 18th, 00:02:14.520 --> 00:02:17.120 a second tropical wave moved off the African 00:02:17.120 --> 00:02:20.259 coast. And it looks like this second wave acted 00:02:20.259 --> 00:02:23.300 as a real catalyst, leading to a more defined 00:02:23.300 --> 00:02:26.780 wave by September 22nd, as it tracked westward 00:02:26.780 --> 00:02:29.080 across the Atlantic. Right, so now you've got 00:02:29.080 --> 00:02:32.300 these two waves kind of merging, and that creates 00:02:32.300 --> 00:02:35.419 a more significant area of atmospheric instability 00:02:35.419 --> 00:02:37.979 and rotation, the ingredients you need for something 00:02:37.979 --> 00:02:40.080 bigger to form. Yeah, it's like these initial 00:02:40.080 --> 00:02:42.400 atmospheric ripples needed to combine in just 00:02:42.400 --> 00:02:44.759 the right way to really get things going. It's 00:02:44.759 --> 00:02:46.560 a bit like that. Yeah, sometimes you need more 00:02:46.560 --> 00:02:48.460 than one ingredient. to start a reaction, right? 00:02:48.719 --> 00:02:50.800 Yeah, exactly. And this is a great example of 00:02:50.800 --> 00:02:54.699 how these seemingly independent weather disturbances 00:02:54.699 --> 00:02:57.979 can merge and set the stage for something much 00:02:57.979 --> 00:03:00.219 larger. It really is fascinating. It is. The 00:03:00.219 --> 00:03:03.460 report notes that this combined wave reached 00:03:03.460 --> 00:03:06.599 the lesser Antilles around September 26th, bringing 00:03:06.599 --> 00:03:09.500 increased but still disorganized thunderstorm 00:03:09.500 --> 00:03:12.530 activity. Right. Then it kind of meandered across 00:03:12.530 --> 00:03:14.629 the eastern and central Caribbean Sea for a couple 00:03:14.629 --> 00:03:17.009 of days without any significant strengthening. 00:03:17.550 --> 00:03:20.789 So it was swirling. but not quite locking in. 00:03:20.949 --> 00:03:22.990 Yeah, and that's pretty typical in those early 00:03:22.990 --> 00:03:25.069 stages. They need to find those right conditions. 00:03:25.150 --> 00:03:27.889 So you have warm ocean waters, low wind shear, 00:03:28.210 --> 00:03:30.750 to really start to organize and draw in energy. 00:03:30.889 --> 00:03:33.250 Right. That disorganized convection tells us 00:03:33.250 --> 00:03:35.509 that those crucial ingredients weren't quite 00:03:35.509 --> 00:03:37.729 aligned just yet. Okay, so here's where it gets 00:03:37.729 --> 00:03:40.449 really interesting for me. Okay. When the wave 00:03:40.449 --> 00:03:43.460 reached the Western Caribbean Sea, around September 00:03:43.460 --> 00:03:47.180 29th. It interacted with this broad area of low 00:03:47.180 --> 00:03:50.020 pressure, the remnants of what's called the Central 00:03:50.020 --> 00:03:53.300 American Gyre. Yeah, the gyre. Now this gyre 00:03:53.300 --> 00:03:55.979 had previously helped to spin up Hurricane Helene 00:03:55.979 --> 00:03:59.169 in the Caribbean. and Hurricane John way over 00:03:59.169 --> 00:04:01.150 in the Eastern Pacific. Yeah. So this thing had 00:04:01.150 --> 00:04:03.710 quite a pedigree. It did. It's like one big weather 00:04:03.710 --> 00:04:07.090 system can have these ripple effects across entire 00:04:07.090 --> 00:04:09.330 ocean basins. Yeah, that's a great way to think 00:04:09.330 --> 00:04:11.629 about it. It is fascinating. It is. These large 00:04:11.629 --> 00:04:14.229 scale atmospheric patterns like the Central American 00:04:14.229 --> 00:04:17.329 gyre, they can act as steering mechanisms and 00:04:17.329 --> 00:04:19.750 also create favorable conditions for smaller 00:04:19.750 --> 00:04:22.910 disturbances to develop. OK. Think of the gyre 00:04:22.910 --> 00:04:25.769 as a giant slow spinning weather system that 00:04:25.769 --> 00:04:29.370 can sometimes catch these smaller disturbances 00:04:29.370 --> 00:04:32.990 and give them a spin, much like you see a larger 00:04:32.990 --> 00:04:35.910 eddy in a river can affect those smaller currents. 00:04:36.839 --> 00:04:39.939 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:04:39.939 --> 00:04:43.199 Report really emphasizes how significant a role 00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:46.000 this played in Milton's development. Wow. Yeah. 00:04:46.459 --> 00:04:49.000 By October 1st, this interaction led to a low 00:04:49.000 --> 00:04:51.839 level trough, kind of an elongated area of low 00:04:51.839 --> 00:04:54.680 pressure, extending from the Bay of Campeche 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:57.600 northeastward toward the central Gulf of Mexico. 00:04:57.759 --> 00:04:59.839 Now, this was also interacting with a frontal 00:04:59.839 --> 00:05:02.139 system over the Eastern Gulf. Yeah, you got a 00:05:02.139 --> 00:05:04.209 lot going on. It sounds like a real meteorological 00:05:04.209 --> 00:05:06.829 melting pot with different air masses and weather 00:05:06.829 --> 00:05:09.269 systems all bumping into each other. Yeah, precisely. 00:05:09.509 --> 00:05:12.149 You have different air masses with varying temperatures, 00:05:12.709 --> 00:05:14.990 moisture content, and they're all interacting. 00:05:15.509 --> 00:05:18.209 Sometimes these interactions can inhibit tropical 00:05:18.209 --> 00:05:20.769 development. OK. But in Milton's case, it seems 00:05:20.769 --> 00:05:23.290 the remnants of that storm from the eastern Pacific 00:05:23.290 --> 00:05:26.629 played a particularly important role in jumpstarting 00:05:26.629 --> 00:05:29.350 the process. So that was really the key. It appears 00:05:29.350 --> 00:05:32.829 so. Right. By October 3rd. a north -south oriented 00:05:32.829 --> 00:05:36.250 trough formed over the western gulf. And get 00:05:36.250 --> 00:05:39.389 this, it had two areas of concentrated spin, 00:05:40.209 --> 00:05:43.310 what meteorologists call vorticity centers. Yeah, 00:05:43.430 --> 00:05:45.949 two centers of rotation. The northern one weakened, 00:05:46.550 --> 00:05:49.329 but the southern center really took off, likely 00:05:49.329 --> 00:05:51.709 because it interacted with the remnants of an 00:05:51.709 --> 00:05:53.930 unnamed tropical storm that had crossed Mexico 00:05:53.930 --> 00:05:56.370 from the eastern Pacific. Yeah, so yet another 00:05:56.370 --> 00:05:58.329 factor contributing to Milton's development. 00:05:58.620 --> 00:06:01.279 It's almost like that Pacific storm handed off 00:06:01.279 --> 00:06:03.279 some energy to the developing system in the Gulf. 00:06:03.379 --> 00:06:05.079 That's a great way to put it. Isn't that interesting? 00:06:05.399 --> 00:06:07.639 It really highlights how hurricane formation 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:11.399 can be this multi -stage process where existing 00:06:11.399 --> 00:06:14.120 atmospheric disturbances, they can contribute 00:06:14.120 --> 00:06:17.240 energy and rotation. It's not always straightforward. 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:21.220 And so finally, on October 5th, about 135 nautical 00:06:21.220 --> 00:06:25.300 miles east of Tampico, Mexico, it officially 00:06:25.300 --> 00:06:28.149 became a tropical depression. There it is. The 00:06:28.149 --> 00:06:30.990 genesis, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:06:30.990 --> 00:06:34.740 Administration report clearly shows, was a rather 00:06:34.740 --> 00:06:37.639 involved and multi -faceted process. It really 00:06:37.639 --> 00:06:40.120 underscores just how intricate the birth of a 00:06:40.120 --> 00:06:42.740 hurricane can be. Yeah. With so many different 00:06:42.740 --> 00:06:44.819 atmospheric players and interactions needing 00:06:44.819 --> 00:06:47.639 to align in just the right way. Absolutely. So 00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:49.699 now that we've got our tropical depression, let's 00:06:49.699 --> 00:06:52.019 move on to how it started to move. Okay. And 00:06:52.019 --> 00:06:53.879 more importantly, how it intensified. Right. 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:56.000 So initially, tropical depression Milton moved 00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.560 slowly northward through the early hours of October 00:06:58.560 --> 00:07:01.439 6th. Uh -huh. But then likely due to increasing 00:07:01.439 --> 00:07:03.600 air pressure to the north. Right. and the continued 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:06.420 influence of that front and another nearby vorticity 00:07:06.420 --> 00:07:09.439 center, it shifted to a slow eastward movement. 00:07:09.639 --> 00:07:12.319 It kind of got nudged. It was almost as if it 00:07:12.319 --> 00:07:15.100 bumped into an invisible wall up north and had 00:07:15.100 --> 00:07:17.319 to change direction. It's a good way to visualize 00:07:17.319 --> 00:07:21.459 it. That eastward turn was quite notable and 00:07:21.459 --> 00:07:23.839 somewhat unusual for a storm in the Gulf of Mexico 00:07:23.839 --> 00:07:26.949 during that time of year. Yeah, typically, you 00:07:26.949 --> 00:07:29.310 know high pressure systems steer storms westward 00:07:29.310 --> 00:07:31.610 in that region, right? So the fact that Milton 00:07:31.610 --> 00:07:34.290 moved eastward suggests a really complex interplay 00:07:34.290 --> 00:07:36.389 of different pressure systems and steering currents 00:07:36.389 --> 00:07:40.009 Okay, and during this eastward journey Milton 00:07:40.009 --> 00:07:43.050 steadily strengthened reaching hurricane strength 00:07:43.050 --> 00:07:46.050 by the evening of October 6th Well located west 00:07:46.050 --> 00:07:48.670 northwest of marital Mexico. Uh -huh. So it's 00:07:48.670 --> 00:07:51.170 gradually gathering strength over that warm Gulf 00:07:51.170 --> 00:07:54.189 water Yeah, the Gulf of Mexico at that time likely 00:07:54.189 --> 00:07:57.930 had very warm sea surface temperatures. And that 00:07:57.930 --> 00:08:00.550 provides the primary fuel for tropical cyclones. 00:08:01.410 --> 00:08:03.670 And coupled with relatively low amounts of vertical 00:08:03.670 --> 00:08:06.649 wind shear, that's when the wind speed or direction 00:08:06.649 --> 00:08:10.089 changes significantly with height. So the environment 00:08:10.089 --> 00:08:12.730 was really conducive for steady intensification. 00:08:12.750 --> 00:08:15.560 It had everything it needed. But then came the 00:08:15.560 --> 00:08:17.939 really dramatic changes. Well, yeah. Early on 00:08:17.939 --> 00:08:20.660 October 7th, Milton took a sharp turn to the 00:08:20.660 --> 00:08:23.139 East -Southeast, and this coincided with what 00:08:23.139 --> 00:08:27.060 the report calls explosive intensification. Explosive, 00:08:27.100 --> 00:08:29.019 that's the word for it. The central pressure 00:08:29.019 --> 00:08:33.639 plummeted from 977 millibars down to an estimated 00:08:33.639 --> 00:08:37.799 895 millibars in about 17 hours. Wow. That is 00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:40.000 an incredible rate of intensification. It is 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:42.980 an 82 millibar drop in atmospheric pressure in 00:08:42.980 --> 00:08:46.019 such a short period that really signifies an 00:08:46.019 --> 00:08:48.679 extremely rapid organization of the storm's internal 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:51.299 structure. The report mentions that the peak 00:08:51.299 --> 00:08:54.320 sustained winds reached an estimated 155 knots 00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:58.000 around 8 PM UTC on October 7th, while the storm 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:02.429 was northwest of Merida. And get this. That minimum 00:09:02.429 --> 00:09:06.590 central pressure of 895 millibars tied Hurricane 00:09:06.590 --> 00:09:10.070 Rita of 2005 for the fourth lowest central pressure 00:09:10.070 --> 00:09:12.409 ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane. It's 00:09:12.409 --> 00:09:14.649 in some pretty elite company. We're talking about 00:09:14.649 --> 00:09:17.269 a storm that at its peak was among the most intense 00:09:17.269 --> 00:09:19.929 ever observed in this basin. Absolutely. Only 00:09:19.929 --> 00:09:22.789 Hurricane Wilma in 2005, Hurricane Gilbert in 00:09:22.789 --> 00:09:26.929 1988, and the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 had 00:09:26.929 --> 00:09:30.519 lower central pressures. So earlier I was asking 00:09:30.519 --> 00:09:33.240 about what specific conditions really aligned 00:09:33.240 --> 00:09:36.279 for that rapid pressure drop. Yeah, what came 00:09:36.279 --> 00:09:38.120 together to cause that. So can you elaborate 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:41.360 on that a little bit? Sure. So it likely involved 00:09:41.360 --> 00:09:44.460 a combination of factors. You had those exceptionally 00:09:44.460 --> 00:09:48.600 warm sea surface temperatures, very low vertical 00:09:48.600 --> 00:09:51.419 wind shear, allowing that storm structure to 00:09:51.419 --> 00:09:55.720 organize unimpeded. Okay. And perhaps some favorable 00:09:55.720 --> 00:09:58.500 upper level atmospheric features that help to 00:09:58.500 --> 00:10:01.340 vent air out of the top of the storm, further 00:10:01.340 --> 00:10:03.759 lowering the pressure at the surface. So everything 00:10:03.759 --> 00:10:05.500 just really came together perfectly. It did. 00:10:05.500 --> 00:10:07.419 It was a perfect recipe for intensification. 00:10:07.899 --> 00:10:10.259 But as often happens with these very intense 00:10:10.259 --> 00:10:13.559 storms, a weakening phase followed. Hurricane 00:10:13.559 --> 00:10:16.500 Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle 00:10:16.500 --> 00:10:18.899 while it was tracking eastward near the Yucatan 00:10:18.899 --> 00:10:21.529 Peninsula. Right. This brought tropical storm 00:10:21.529 --> 00:10:23.850 conditions to the coast, but kept the most intense 00:10:23.850 --> 00:10:26.529 hurricane force winds just offshore. So can I 00:10:26.529 --> 00:10:29.169 ask, can you explain what an eyewall replacement 00:10:29.169 --> 00:10:32.710 cycle is, and why it leads to weakening? Sure, 00:10:32.809 --> 00:10:36.389 so the eyewall is that ring of intense thunderstorms 00:10:36.389 --> 00:10:37.889 surrounding the eye of the hurricane. Right, 00:10:37.889 --> 00:10:40.009 where you find the strongest winds. Exactly. 00:10:40.269 --> 00:10:42.950 In very intense hurricanes, a secondary eyewall 00:10:42.950 --> 00:10:45.870 can sometimes form outside the original eyewall. 00:10:46.570 --> 00:10:49.409 When this happens, the outer eye wall gradually 00:10:49.409 --> 00:10:52.190 contracts inward, eventually replacing the inner 00:10:52.190 --> 00:10:55.309 eye wall. During this process, the storm structure 00:10:55.309 --> 00:10:58.190 becomes less organized, leading to a temporary 00:10:58.190 --> 00:11:01.029 weakening of the maximum sustained winds. So 00:11:01.029 --> 00:11:03.429 it has to kind of rebuild itself? Exactly. Once 00:11:03.429 --> 00:11:06.490 the new, larger eye wall becomes fully established, 00:11:06.950 --> 00:11:09.679 the hurricane can sometimes re -intensify. although 00:11:09.679 --> 00:11:12.240 not always to its previous peak intensity. That's 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:14.480 not guaranteed. Right. Interesting. So it's like 00:11:14.480 --> 00:11:16.679 the storm has to rebuild its core. Yeah, that's 00:11:16.679 --> 00:11:18.779 a good analogy. And then starting on October 00:11:18.779 --> 00:11:22.559 8th, the movement became quite erratic, shifting 00:11:22.559 --> 00:11:25.299 east northeastward. Yeah, unpredictable. This 00:11:25.299 --> 00:11:28.100 coincided with a low pressure system over the 00:11:28.100 --> 00:11:30.419 northeastern Gulf moving out into the Atlantic. 00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:33.559 and a ridge of high pressure building in. Oh, 00:11:33.659 --> 00:11:35.480 wow, so the steering currents were shifting. 00:11:35.620 --> 00:11:37.120 It sounds like the atmospheric steering forces 00:11:37.120 --> 00:11:39.259 were constantly changing. Yeah, the departure 00:11:39.259 --> 00:11:41.320 of that low pressure system and the strengthening 00:11:41.320 --> 00:11:44.320 of the high pressure ridge, they created this 00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:48.000 new set of forces influencing Hurricane Milton's 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:50.940 track, leading to that more easterly and then 00:11:50.940 --> 00:11:53.360 northeasterly component in its movement. Yeah. 00:11:53.379 --> 00:11:56.120 So you've got the internal reorganization from 00:11:56.120 --> 00:11:59.899 the eyewall replacement and these shifting external 00:11:59.919 --> 00:12:02.940 steering forces. Right. The storm's path really 00:12:02.940 --> 00:12:06.059 became quite unpredictable for a time. Really 00:12:06.059 --> 00:12:07.960 hard to forecast at that point. Yeah, definitely. 00:12:08.000 --> 00:12:09.960 It was keeping the forecasters on their toes. 00:12:10.200 --> 00:12:12.620 And sure enough, after that Iowa replacement 00:12:12.620 --> 00:12:16.279 cycle completed, Hurricane Milton did re -intensify, 00:12:16.840 --> 00:12:19.639 reaching sustained winds of 145 knots on the 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:22.460 evening of October 8th. Okay. followed by more 00:12:22.460 --> 00:12:24.899 fluctuations in intensity. Open down. This storm 00:12:24.899 --> 00:12:27.440 certainly kept forecasters on their toes. It 00:12:27.440 --> 00:12:29.860 absolutely did. These intensity fluctuations, 00:12:29.940 --> 00:12:33.159 they can be very challenging to predict accurately. 00:12:33.299 --> 00:12:37.440 They depend on this delicate balance of the hurricane's 00:12:37.440 --> 00:12:40.399 internal dynamics, like those eyewall cycles, 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:44.080 and the constantly evolving external environmental 00:12:44.080 --> 00:12:46.720 conditions, such as sea surface temperatures 00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:48.960 and upper level winds. So a lot of things can 00:12:48.960 --> 00:12:50.980 affect the intensity. A lot of moving parts. 00:12:51.289 --> 00:12:55.330 Then around 6 a .m. UTC on October 9, stronger 00:12:55.330 --> 00:12:57.750 southwesterly winds in the upper atmosphere, 00:12:58.210 --> 00:13:01.240 what we call increased vertical wind shear. caused 00:13:01.240 --> 00:13:03.960 it to accelerate northeastward over cooler waters. 00:13:04.179 --> 00:13:07.059 Right, so wind shear can really disrupt a hurricane. 00:13:07.320 --> 00:13:09.620 This led to rapid weakening of the storm, although 00:13:09.620 --> 00:13:12.220 its overall size actually increased. Interesting. 00:13:12.299 --> 00:13:14.419 So it was losing some of its punch in terms of 00:13:14.419 --> 00:13:17.379 maximum winds, but becoming a broader storm system. 00:13:17.539 --> 00:13:19.259 Okay, so like spreading the same amount of energy 00:13:19.259 --> 00:13:22.159 over a larger area. Exactly. That increased wind 00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:24.940 shear started to disrupt the hurricane's vertical 00:13:24.940 --> 00:13:27.299 structure, essentially tearing at its organized 00:13:27.299 --> 00:13:30.159 core. At the same time as it moved over cooler 00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:33.320 waters, its primary energy source was diminishing, 00:13:33.620 --> 00:13:36.740 leading to that rapid weakening. However, the 00:13:36.740 --> 00:13:39.799 storm's overall wind field expanded, meaning 00:13:39.799 --> 00:13:42.460 a larger area was experiencing tropical storm 00:13:42.460 --> 00:13:45.740 force winds, even as those core winds decreased. 00:13:45.899 --> 00:13:48.440 And finally, the climax? Landfall. Landfall is 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:51.320 a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained 00:13:51.320 --> 00:13:54.659 winds near 100 knots on Siesta Key, Florida, 00:13:55.059 --> 00:13:59.620 at 12 .02 a .m. UTC on October 10th. So still 00:13:59.620 --> 00:14:02.100 a major hurricane at landfall it had maintained 00:14:02.100 --> 00:14:04.379 major hurricane status. That's category three 00:14:04.379 --> 00:14:06.700 or higher. Uh -huh right up to the coast Wow 00:14:06.830 --> 00:14:08.929 which is a testament to his power. It really 00:14:08.929 --> 00:14:11.350 is. Landing as a category three hurricane still 00:14:11.350 --> 00:14:14.169 signifies a very dangerous storm, capable of 00:14:14.169 --> 00:14:16.450 causing widespread and significant damage from 00:14:16.450 --> 00:14:18.870 those powerful winds. Right. That substantial 00:14:18.870 --> 00:14:21.490 storm surge and the heavy rainfall siesta key 00:14:21.490 --> 00:14:24.230 and the surrounding coastal communities or the 00:14:24.230 --> 00:14:27.129 initial brunt of those intense conditions. Then 00:14:27.129 --> 00:14:30.169 it continued its east northeastward trek across 00:14:30.169 --> 00:14:32.730 the Florida peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic 00:14:32.730 --> 00:14:36.309 Ocean near Cape Canaveral by 8 a .m. UTC on October 00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:38.960 10th. Right. From there, it underwent what's 00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:41.899 called extratropical transition and eventually 00:14:41.899 --> 00:14:44.679 dissipated a few hundred nautical miles south 00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:48.360 of Bermuda by March 12th. Wow, that's a long 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:51.039 life. That's a remarkably long lifespan for a 00:14:51.039 --> 00:14:54.370 single storm system. It is. Can you briefly explain 00:14:54.370 --> 00:14:57.389 what extratropical transition means? Sure. Extratropical 00:14:57.389 --> 00:15:00.570 transition is when a tropical cyclone loses its 00:15:00.570 --> 00:15:03.129 warm core characteristics and transforms into 00:15:03.129 --> 00:15:06.029 a mid -latitude storm, similar to the nor 'easters 00:15:06.029 --> 00:15:08.629 we see up here in the northeast. This typically 00:15:08.629 --> 00:15:11.190 happens when the storm moves over colder waters 00:15:11.190 --> 00:15:14.389 or interacts with strong upper level winds and 00:15:14.389 --> 00:15:16.850 fronts, which are more characteristic of those 00:15:16.850 --> 00:15:19.809 mid -latitude weather systems. So it essentially 00:15:19.809 --> 00:15:21.990 becomes a different type of storm. So it loses 00:15:21.990 --> 00:15:24.110 its tropi - characteristics exactly okay now 00:15:24.110 --> 00:15:26.509 let's dive into some of those key meteorological 00:15:26.509 --> 00:15:29.330 statistics that really highlight hurricane Milton's 00:15:29.330 --> 00:15:31.870 intensity and impact yeah the numbers tell the 00:15:31.870 --> 00:15:34.879 story The peak intensity, as we discussed, reached 00:15:34.879 --> 00:15:37.500 category five status with those estimated sustained 00:15:37.500 --> 00:15:41.379 winds of 155 knots. Yeah. And that minimum central 00:15:41.379 --> 00:15:45.220 pressure of 895 millibars, incredibly low reading. 00:15:45.480 --> 00:15:47.919 Really is. And even at landfall, it was still 00:15:47.919 --> 00:15:50.879 a significant category three storm. Right. With 00:15:50.879 --> 00:15:54.299 100 knot winds and an estimated minimum pressure 00:15:54.299 --> 00:15:58.080 of 958 millibars. Still packing a punch. Even 00:15:58.080 --> 00:16:00.840 after some weakening, it was still a very formidable 00:16:00.840 --> 00:16:03.649 force. Absolutely. A category three hurricane 00:16:03.649 --> 00:16:07.070 can still inflict widespread damage to buildings, 00:16:07.850 --> 00:16:10.289 infrastructure, vegetation due to those intense 00:16:10.289 --> 00:16:12.809 winds. Right. And it poses a significant threat 00:16:12.809 --> 00:16:16.149 from storm surge and heavy rainfall. The highest 00:16:16.149 --> 00:16:18.330 sustained wind speed reported on land in Florida 00:16:18.330 --> 00:16:22.230 was 79 knots. Wow. with gusts up to 93 knots 00:16:22.230 --> 00:16:24.690 recorded at Venice Beach. So you can just imagine 00:16:24.690 --> 00:16:26.610 the force of those winds. That gives you a real 00:16:26.610 --> 00:16:28.889 sense of the powerful winds that directly impact 00:16:28.889 --> 00:16:30.990 at the coastline. It does. Can you quickly explain 00:16:30.990 --> 00:16:33.429 the difference between sustained winds and gusts? 00:16:33.549 --> 00:16:36.789 Sure. Sustained winds are the average wind speed 00:16:36.789 --> 00:16:39.190 over a certain period, typically one minute. 00:16:39.429 --> 00:16:42.519 Alright. Gusts, on the other hand, are brief, 00:16:42.899 --> 00:16:45.899 sudden increases in wind speed above that sustained 00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:48.820 wind. Gotcha. So gusts are what often cause more 00:16:48.820 --> 00:16:51.620 localized and sudden damage. OK. Like snapping 00:16:51.620 --> 00:16:54.360 tree limbs or tearing off shingles. OK. So while 00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:56.399 the sustained winds give you an overall measure 00:16:56.399 --> 00:16:59.500 of the storm's strength, the gusts really represent 00:16:59.500 --> 00:17:02.240 that peak force that structures might experience. 00:17:02.440 --> 00:17:04.099 Right. So it's the gusts that do the most damage. 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:07.210 Often, yes. Then there was the very significant 00:17:07.210 --> 00:17:10.730 storm surge along the central to southwest Florida 00:17:10.730 --> 00:17:13.170 Gulf Coast. Yeah, the surge was a major factor. 00:17:13.470 --> 00:17:16.089 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:17:16.089 --> 00:17:19.329 report indicates surge heights of six to nine 00:17:19.329 --> 00:17:22.670 feet above ground level from Venice to Boca Grande. 00:17:22.970 --> 00:17:26.450 with an isolated peak of up to 10 feet near Minnesota 00:17:26.450 --> 00:17:29.829 Key. Wow. Just the sheer power of that much water. 00:17:30.089 --> 00:17:32.269 I know it's hard to imagine. Inundating coastal 00:17:32.269 --> 00:17:34.430 areas is hard to imagine. It is, and storm surge, 00:17:34.630 --> 00:17:37.349 that abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, 00:17:37.630 --> 00:17:40.690 is often the deadliest and most destructive aspect 00:17:40.690 --> 00:17:43.470 of a hurricane. Yeah. These inundation levels, 00:17:43.509 --> 00:17:45.970 they can cause catastrophic damage to homes, 00:17:46.250 --> 00:17:49.609 businesses, infrastructure, located in those 00:17:49.609 --> 00:17:53.039 low -lying coastal regions. Right. Port also 00:17:53.039 --> 00:17:55.440 makes an important point that the actual height 00:17:55.440 --> 00:17:58.079 of the waves on top of the surge would have been 00:17:58.079 --> 00:18:01.099 significantly higher. Wow. Leading to even greater 00:18:01.099 --> 00:18:04.000 impacts. And the rainfall totals in some areas 00:18:04.000 --> 00:18:07.180 were just extraordinary. The rain was relentless. 00:18:07.500 --> 00:18:10.279 The maximum recorded in Florida was a staggering 00:18:10.279 --> 00:18:13.720 20 .40 inches. Wow. Near St. Petersburg. That's 00:18:13.720 --> 00:18:15.640 a lot of rain. Which led to widespread river 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:18.680 and urban flooding. Oh, yeah. Including record 00:18:18.680 --> 00:18:20.339 high water levels on the Hillsborough River. 00:18:20.500 --> 00:18:23.579 Yeah, such high amounts of rainfall over a relatively 00:18:23.579 --> 00:18:26.380 short period can quickly overwhelm those drainage 00:18:26.380 --> 00:18:29.500 systems, leading to significant freshwater flooding. 00:18:30.079 --> 00:18:32.880 This can occur far inland from the coast and 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:35.319 cause substantial damage to property and infrastructure 00:18:35.319 --> 00:18:38.440 as we saw with those record river crests. Absolutely. 00:18:38.539 --> 00:18:40.880 And there was also a pocket of very heavy rain 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:43.500 near Vero Beach with over 11 inches reported. 00:18:43.539 --> 00:18:46.740 So widespread heavy rain. But perhaps one of 00:18:46.740 --> 00:18:49.180 the most notable and sadly destructive aspects 00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:52.460 of Hurricane Milton was the very significant 00:18:52.460 --> 00:18:54.559 tornado outbreak that occurred over southern 00:18:54.559 --> 00:18:57.660 and central Florida on October 9th. Yeah, the 00:18:57.660 --> 00:18:59.660 tornadoes were a big part of the story. The report 00:18:59.660 --> 00:19:03.740 documents an astonishing 45 confirmed tornadoes 00:19:03.740 --> 00:19:06.430 on land. Forty -five? That's unbelievable. As 00:19:06.430 --> 00:19:08.730 well as one water spout. Yeah, that's an unusually 00:19:08.730 --> 00:19:11.130 high number of tornadoes associated with a single 00:19:11.130 --> 00:19:13.289 tropical cyclone. Really is. It's not something 00:19:13.289 --> 00:19:15.710 you see every day. No, not at all. In fact, the 00:19:15.710 --> 00:19:17.950 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:19:17.950 --> 00:19:20.450 report highlights that Hurricane Milton was the 00:19:20.450 --> 00:19:23.289 first tropical cyclone on record to produce more 00:19:23.289 --> 00:19:27.450 than one EF3 tornado. Wow. So that's a significant 00:19:27.450 --> 00:19:30.190 and concerning statistic. It really is. And tornadoes 00:19:30.190 --> 00:19:32.769 spawned by hurricanes. They're often relatively 00:19:32.769 --> 00:19:35.410 short lived and can be very difficult to predict 00:19:35.410 --> 00:19:38.089 with precision. Right. However, as we tragically 00:19:38.089 --> 00:19:40.970 saw with Hurricane Milton, they can really significantly 00:19:40.970 --> 00:19:43.990 increase the overall damage and pose a very serious 00:19:43.990 --> 00:19:46.329 threat to life, particularly from those stronger 00:19:46.329 --> 00:19:50.130 tornadoes like the EF3s. And we saw three EF3 00:19:50.130 --> 00:19:55.240 tornadoes, six EF2s, 25. EF -1s and seven EF 00:19:55.240 --> 00:19:57.799 -0 tornadoes. So a range of intensities. Tragically, 00:19:57.839 --> 00:20:00.200 the strongest EF -3 tornado which struck near 00:20:00.200 --> 00:20:02.960 Fort Pierce in Vero Beach caused fatalities. 00:20:03.019 --> 00:20:05.619 Yeah, a very sad outcome. Adding another layer 00:20:05.619 --> 00:20:08.059 of devastation to this event. So now shifting 00:20:08.059 --> 00:20:11.680 our focus to the human impact. No. The casualty 00:20:11.680 --> 00:20:14.920 and damage statistics really paint a stark and 00:20:14.920 --> 00:20:17.940 sobering picture of Hurricane Milton's consequences. 00:20:18.380 --> 00:20:21.359 They certainly do. The report confirms 15 direct 00:20:21.359 --> 00:20:24.140 deaths attributed to the storm, 12 in the US, 00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:27.400 all within Florida. And these included fatalities 00:20:27.400 --> 00:20:29.900 from the tornadoes, falling trees, and flooding. 00:20:30.099 --> 00:20:32.019 Yeah, the storm surge. In Mexico, there were 00:20:32.019 --> 00:20:34.460 three direct deaths reported due to dangerous 00:20:34.460 --> 00:20:36.359 high surf conditions and a boating accident. 00:20:36.460 --> 00:20:39.180 Right. Sadly, six people were also reported missing 00:20:39.180 --> 00:20:41.180 from a fishing boat off the coast of Mexico. 00:20:41.579 --> 00:20:43.599 So the impact was felt in both countries. It 00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:46.599 was a wide -reaching event. And beyond the immediate 00:20:46.599 --> 00:20:49.799 and direct fatalities, there were 27 indirect 00:20:49.799 --> 00:20:52.480 deaths reported in the U .S., again all in Florida. 00:20:53.079 --> 00:20:55.400 Yeah, the indirect impacts can be significant 00:20:55.400 --> 00:20:58.049 as well. These tragic incidents were linked to 00:20:58.049 --> 00:21:00.769 various factors, such as health issues experienced 00:21:00.769 --> 00:21:03.210 during that intense preparation and cleanup phase, 00:21:04.009 --> 00:21:07.670 falls, car accidents, hazards from downed power 00:21:07.670 --> 00:21:10.569 lines, a fire that was started by storm surge, 00:21:10.750 --> 00:21:13.930 and even a fatal injury from a falling tree limb 00:21:13.930 --> 00:21:16.529 after the storm had passed. So the dangers can 00:21:16.529 --> 00:21:19.150 persist even after the storm is gone. It really 00:21:19.150 --> 00:21:21.329 underscores the long -lasting and far -reaching 00:21:21.329 --> 00:21:23.829 dangers associated with such a major hurricane 00:21:23.829 --> 00:21:26.480 event. Absolutely. The estimated total damage 00:21:26.480 --> 00:21:29.339 in the United States reached a staggering $34 00:21:29.339 --> 00:21:33.720 .3 billion. $34 .3 billion? That's hard to fathom. 00:21:33.819 --> 00:21:36.099 With almost all of that devastation occurring 00:21:36.099 --> 00:21:39.059 within the state of Florida. The National Oceanic 00:21:39.059 --> 00:21:41.220 and Atmospheric Administration report also notes 00:21:41.220 --> 00:21:43.140 that conducting accurate damage assessments was 00:21:43.140 --> 00:21:45.440 made more complicated by the fact that Hurricane 00:21:45.440 --> 00:21:47.660 Helene had impacted some of the same areas just 00:21:47.660 --> 00:21:50.369 two weeks prior. Oh wow, so back -to -back hurricanes. 00:21:50.710 --> 00:21:53.890 That must have significantly hampered recovery 00:21:53.890 --> 00:21:56.269 efforts for those communities. Yeah, the cumulative 00:21:56.269 --> 00:21:59.990 impact of experiencing two significant hurricanes 00:21:59.990 --> 00:22:02.670 and such close succession can be truly devastating 00:22:02.670 --> 00:22:05.849 for these regions. It really strains resources, 00:22:06.549 --> 00:22:09.109 complicates recovery logistics, and can have 00:22:09.109 --> 00:22:12.089 a profound and prolonged impact on residents 00:22:12.089 --> 00:22:15.210 and the local economy. That immense financial 00:22:15.210 --> 00:22:19.690 toll of $34 .3 billion really highlights the 00:22:19.690 --> 00:22:21.869 significant economic consequences that these 00:22:21.869 --> 00:22:24.549 powerful storms can inflict. Yeah, absolutely. 00:22:24.589 --> 00:22:27.289 One particularly striking example of the damage 00:22:27.289 --> 00:22:29.740 was to to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. 00:22:29.799 --> 00:22:31.240 Oh yeah, I remember hearing about that. Where 00:22:31.240 --> 00:22:33.519 a significant portion of the fabric roof was 00:22:33.519 --> 00:22:36.819 ripped off by those intense winds, leading to 00:22:36.819 --> 00:22:38.960 substantial water damage inside the stadium. 00:22:39.119 --> 00:22:41.579 Wow, it's a vivid reminder of the sheer force 00:22:41.579 --> 00:22:44.440 of hurricane strength winds. It is a stark reminder 00:22:44.440 --> 00:22:47.160 of nature's power. Now let's move on to a really 00:22:47.160 --> 00:22:50.220 critical aspect. How well did forecasters predict 00:22:50.220 --> 00:22:53.000 this complex storm? Alright, the forecast challenge. 00:22:53.019 --> 00:22:55.720 This is always a crucial area of review and analysis 00:22:55.720 --> 00:22:58.140 following any significant weather event. It is. 00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:01.680 We learn from every storm. And the National Oceanic 00:23:01.680 --> 00:23:04.599 and Atmospheric Administration report provides 00:23:04.599 --> 00:23:08.099 a very detailed critique of the forecasts and 00:23:08.099 --> 00:23:10.460 warnings associated with Hurricane Milton. Okay, 00:23:10.460 --> 00:23:12.839 let's break it down. Starting with its formation, 00:23:13.299 --> 00:23:16.579 or Genesis, it seems that predicting Milton's 00:23:16.579 --> 00:23:19.680 birth was a significant challenge for forecasters. 00:23:20.299 --> 00:23:22.980 Yeah, the early stages can be tricky. The report 00:23:22.980 --> 00:23:25.680 is quite direct, stating that the Genesis forecast 00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:29.970 was very poorly forecast. Oh, wow. In terms of 00:23:29.970 --> 00:23:32.150 both when and where the storm would actually 00:23:32.150 --> 00:23:34.650 develop. So they didn't see it coming. Initial 00:23:34.650 --> 00:23:36.829 forecasts had suggested potential development 00:23:36.829 --> 00:23:40.269 in the Caribbean Sea. and there was considerable 00:23:40.269 --> 00:23:42.630 inconsistency among the various computer weather 00:23:42.630 --> 00:23:46.069 models regarding which specific atmospheric disturbance 00:23:46.069 --> 00:23:48.410 would ultimately organize into a tropical cyclone. 00:23:48.849 --> 00:23:50.869 So the models were struggling? Yeah, and the 00:23:50.869 --> 00:23:53.089 proximity of a frontal system? Right. And the 00:23:53.089 --> 00:23:55.029 influence of the upper level winds, the westerlies? 00:23:55.069 --> 00:23:57.490 Yeah. Added a significant layer of complexity 00:23:57.490 --> 00:23:59.369 to the forecasting situation. Should be real 00:23:59.369 --> 00:24:01.990 wild carts. These factors can either inhibit 00:24:01.990 --> 00:24:05.630 or promote tropical development. Right. And it 00:24:05.630 --> 00:24:08.109 seems they created a lot of uncertainty in the 00:24:08.109 --> 00:24:10.869 models leading up to Milton's formation. So a 00:24:10.869 --> 00:24:13.849 lot of uncertainty in those early days. The probabilities 00:24:13.849 --> 00:24:16.049 for development in the tropical weather outlook, 00:24:16.190 --> 00:24:18.309 which is issued by the National Hurricane Center, 00:24:18.990 --> 00:24:21.210 fluctuated quite a bit during this period. So 00:24:21.210 --> 00:24:24.029 it was a tough one to nail down. Turning to the 00:24:24.029 --> 00:24:27.289 track forecast. OK. The National Oceanic and 00:24:27.289 --> 00:24:29.990 Atmospheric Administration report indicates that 00:24:29.990 --> 00:24:33.029 the official track forecast errors were slightly 00:24:33.029 --> 00:24:35.640 higher than the average for the previous five 00:24:35.640 --> 00:24:38.779 years for shorter forecast lead times. So not 00:24:38.779 --> 00:24:41.240 so good in the short term. But they were actually 00:24:41.240 --> 00:24:43.740 better than average for the longer range forecasts. 00:24:44.160 --> 00:24:45.759 Interesting. So they got the long term better 00:24:45.759 --> 00:24:48.500 than the short term. Overall, the forecast generally 00:24:48.500 --> 00:24:51.200 captured the eastward and then northeastward 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:54.140 motion of the storm. but there was a tendency 00:24:54.140 --> 00:24:56.779 for a slight northward bias in the predicted 00:24:56.779 --> 00:24:59.180 path. So they had it going a little too far north. 00:24:59.579 --> 00:25:01.920 Despite that tendency to forecast the storm slightly 00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:05.140 too far north. Right. It's important to highlight 00:25:05.140 --> 00:25:08.420 that the official forecasts did consistently 00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:11.500 indicate a landfall in the general Sarasota Tampa 00:25:11.500 --> 00:25:14.200 Bay area of Florida's Gulf Coast. Okay. Which 00:25:14.200 --> 00:25:16.759 in the end proved to be reasonably accurate in 00:25:16.759 --> 00:25:19.019 terms of the overall location of the landfall. 00:25:19.200 --> 00:25:22.220 So they got the general area right. Now it appears 00:25:22.220 --> 00:25:24.839 that forecasting the intensity of Hurricane Milton 00:25:24.839 --> 00:25:27.640 presented the biggest challenges. Yeah, intensity 00:25:27.640 --> 00:25:30.279 is always tricky. The report shows that the official 00:25:30.279 --> 00:25:32.720 intensity forecast errors were significantly 00:25:32.720 --> 00:25:35.160 higher than the average. So they underestimated 00:25:35.160 --> 00:25:38.839 its strength. This was primarily due to the underestimation 00:25:38.839 --> 00:25:42.380 of that very rapid intensification we saw occur 00:25:42.380 --> 00:25:45.380 between October 5th and 7th. Right, that explosive 00:25:45.380 --> 00:25:48.440 intensification. Why do you think the rapid intensification 00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:50.940 was so difficult to predict? Well, the rapid 00:25:50.940 --> 00:25:53.299 intensification was likely difficult to predict 00:25:53.299 --> 00:25:56.200 due to that complex interplay of factors we discussed 00:25:56.200 --> 00:25:58.779 earlier, such as the interaction with the frontal 00:25:58.779 --> 00:26:01.700 system and the vertical wind shear. It seems 00:26:01.700 --> 00:26:04.220 that the regional hurricane models, which have 00:26:04.220 --> 00:26:06.880 a higher resolution, and can sometimes capture 00:26:06.880 --> 00:26:09.539 smaller scale atmospheric features more effectively. 00:26:09.759 --> 00:26:12.660 They actually performed better in forecasting 00:26:12.660 --> 00:26:15.900 that rapid intensification phase compared to 00:26:15.900 --> 00:26:17.680 the official forecast. So the regional models 00:26:17.680 --> 00:26:20.839 did a better job? In that specific instance, 00:26:21.000 --> 00:26:23.559 it appears so. However, the subsequent weakening 00:26:23.559 --> 00:26:26.799 of the storm as it approached Florida was generally 00:26:26.799 --> 00:26:30.400 forecast quite well. The National Oceanic and 00:26:30.400 --> 00:26:32.980 Atmospheric Administration report does emphasize 00:26:32.980 --> 00:26:35.380 that despite the challenges with predicting the 00:26:35.380 --> 00:26:39.759 rapid intensification, their forecasts consistently 00:26:39.759 --> 00:26:42.640 communicated the threat of a major hurricane 00:26:42.640 --> 00:26:45.900 making landfall along the Florida West Coast 00:26:45.900 --> 00:26:48.299 right from the very first advisory. So they were 00:26:48.299 --> 00:26:50.099 warning people of the potential danger. Which 00:26:50.099 --> 00:26:52.420 is crucial for public safety. Absolutely. That 00:26:52.420 --> 00:26:54.480 consistent messaging about the potential for 00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:57.269 a major hurricane. even with some uncertainty 00:26:57.269 --> 00:27:00.970 in the precise intensity is so vital for prompting 00:27:00.970 --> 00:27:03.130 the public to take necessary preparedness actions. 00:27:03.130 --> 00:27:05.329 Yeah, like heating evacuation orders. It's all 00:27:05.329 --> 00:27:07.269 about giving people the information they need 00:27:07.269 --> 00:27:10.309 to make informed decisions. OK, let's talk about 00:27:10.309 --> 00:27:12.450 the tropical cyclone watches and warnings that 00:27:12.450 --> 00:27:15.470 were issued. OK, the watches and warnings. For 00:27:15.470 --> 00:27:17.990 the area that ultimately experienced landfall 00:27:17.990 --> 00:27:21.500 on the Florida West Coast. A hurricane watch 00:27:21.500 --> 00:27:25.099 was issued 54 hours before tropical storm force 00:27:25.099 --> 00:27:27.220 winds arrived. Okay, that's a good lead time. 00:27:27.480 --> 00:27:29.599 And the more urgent hurricane warning was issued 00:27:29.599 --> 00:27:33.019 42 hours before. So plenty of time to prepare. 00:27:33.420 --> 00:27:35.960 Those lead times seem pretty significant for 00:27:35.960 --> 00:27:38.299 allowing people time to prepare. They are. Those 00:27:38.299 --> 00:27:40.259 lead times are generally considered adequate 00:27:40.259 --> 00:27:43.140 to allow communities to take the necessary precautions. 00:27:43.480 --> 00:27:46.819 Things like securing property, stocking up on 00:27:46.819 --> 00:27:49.740 supplies, and evacuating if ordered to do so. 00:27:50.140 --> 00:27:52.339 Absolutely. And hurricane warnings were also 00:27:52.339 --> 00:27:55.519 issued for the Florida East Coast in anticipation 00:27:55.519 --> 00:27:57.359 of the storm emerging back into the Atlantic. 00:27:57.460 --> 00:27:59.380 Right. Covering all the bases. Which proved to 00:27:59.380 --> 00:28:01.880 be a necessary step. It did. The report also 00:28:01.880 --> 00:28:04.140 mentions that Mexico issued tropical cyclone 00:28:04.140 --> 00:28:06.480 watches and warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula. 00:28:06.730 --> 00:28:11.049 as Hurricane Milton approached. However, the 00:28:11.049 --> 00:28:13.769 northward bias in the track forecasts meant that 00:28:13.769 --> 00:28:16.269 some of these warnings had to be adjusted as 00:28:16.269 --> 00:28:19.190 the storm's actual path became clearer. Yeah, 00:28:19.329 --> 00:28:21.809 that unpredictable track was a challenge. This 00:28:21.809 --> 00:28:24.190 really highlights the challenges of forecasting 00:28:24.190 --> 00:28:27.609 a storm with such an unusual and at times erratic 00:28:27.609 --> 00:28:29.829 track. Yeah, definitely it kept the forecasters 00:28:29.829 --> 00:28:32.980 on their toes. And... regarding the crucial storm 00:28:32.980 --> 00:28:36.299 surge threat. Right the surge. The National Oceanic 00:28:36.299 --> 00:28:39.430 and Atmospheric Administration. issued both storm 00:28:39.430 --> 00:28:42.650 surge watches and storm surge warnings. Okay. 00:28:42.890 --> 00:28:45.309 For a significant portion of the Florida Gulf 00:28:45.309 --> 00:28:48.029 Coast. The vulnerable areas. These were issued 00:28:48.029 --> 00:28:50.529 with similar lead times to the hurricane watches 00:28:50.529 --> 00:28:52.710 and warnings. Okay, good to have that consistency. 00:28:53.009 --> 00:28:55.029 The report notes that the area covered by the 00:28:55.029 --> 00:28:57.609 storm surge warning effectively encompassed the 00:28:57.609 --> 00:28:59.910 coastal areas that experienced the most significant 00:28:59.910 --> 00:29:02.849 surge. So the warnings were well placed. The 00:29:02.849 --> 00:29:05.509 forecast for the peak storm surge in Tampa Bay 00:29:05.509 --> 00:29:08.009 presented a particular challenge for forecasters 00:29:08.009 --> 00:29:10.750 due to the track sensitivity. Yeah, track sensitivity 00:29:10.750 --> 00:29:13.089 can be a real issue with storm surge forecasting. 00:29:13.450 --> 00:29:15.529 The report mentions that even a slight shift 00:29:15.529 --> 00:29:17.710 in the landfall location, either to the north 00:29:17.710 --> 00:29:20.349 or south, could have had major implications for 00:29:20.349 --> 00:29:22.349 the magnitude of the storm surge experienced 00:29:22.349 --> 00:29:24.890 in Tampa Bay. Absolutely. A small shift in track 00:29:24.970 --> 00:29:27.950 can mean a big difference in surge. As a result, 00:29:28.430 --> 00:29:30.089 forecasters had to make multiple adjustments 00:29:30.089 --> 00:29:32.910 to the storm surge forecast as the track became 00:29:32.910 --> 00:29:35.349 clear in the final hours leading up to landfall.