All right, welcome everyone to Meteorology Matters.
If you're really interested in understanding
what makes our world tick, you know, the forces
that shape it, then you are definitely in the
right place. Yeah, for sure. Today we're gonna
be, you know, we're gonna be focusing on the
fascinating world of meteorology. Okay. We're
gonna be looking at hurricanes, recent activity
and kind of the patterns we're seeing. That's
good. And importantly, the impact that these
hurricanes have on our wallets, on our communities.
Absolutely. So you shared some really interesting
stuff with us, some cool information. Yeah. And
today, we're going to try to unpack all of this.
you know, how hurricane activity is tied to things
like insurance and also the crucial role that
agencies like the National Oceanic Atmosphere
Administration play in all of this. We really
want to give you a clear picture of what's happening
and why it matters so much. OK, great. And hey,
if you want to. to dive even deeper and stay
up to date, you can follow meteorologist Rob
Jones. He's on Instagram meteorologist on TikTok
TV meteorologist. And if you're on YouTube, follow
Rob Jones Hurricane. That's where you'll find
Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. Yeah. All
right. So let's just jump right into it. Let's
talk about the money. Let's talk about the financial
toll of some of these recent hurricanes. It seems
like FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency,
they've announced they need to borrow a pretty
substantial amount of money, something like $2
billion from the U .S. Treasury. And this isn't
just for day -to -day operations. This is specifically
to cover claims from people who are insured by...
the National Flood Insurance Program, the NFIP.
Right. This really just underscores the immediate
financial impact that these storms can bring,
you know? Oh, yeah. It makes you wonder about
how sustainable this whole system is. Well, the
numbers are really something. I mean, we're looking
at potentially over $10 billion in flood insurance
claims just from hurricanes Alene and Milton
back in 2024, you know, and that's not even counting.
all the other flooding events that happened that
year. So it's putting a huge strain on the NTIPS
resources. They just weren't designed to handle
this many big catastrophic events one right after
the other without needing to tap into some extra
funds. I think it raises some serious questions
about whether the premiums people are paying
are actually enough to cover the ever increasing
costs of all this flood damage. especially with
the possibility of climate change leading to
even more intense storms in the future. And for
the average person out there, this could mean
their insurance premiums are going to go up.
Maybe they're going to see some changes in what
their insurance policies actually cover, something
to definitely keep an eye on. Right. So it sounds
like this NFIP, it just isn't really built to
handle this kind of like... of huge disasters
all in one year without needing that backup,
that financial backup. And it seems like just
the scale of the financial impact from 2024,
those storms pretty much exhausted the money
that they had been collecting through these premiums
to actually pay out on those claims. It seems
like a system under a lot of stress, a lot of
strain. It's fascinating to actually look at
the specific numbers, the figures for each of
these storms, right? Yeah, absolutely. So if
we take a closer look for Helene, by early February
this year... They had already processed over
57 ,400 flood claims. That's a lot. And paid
out more than 4 .5 billion. And the estimates
for the total losses from Helene, they range
from 6 .4 billion to 7 .4 billion. And then you
got Milton, different kind of damage, but still
over 21 ,100 claims. Got over 740 million paid
out by early February. the total estimated losses
for Milton, somewhere between 1 .2 billion and
2 .9 billion. It's quite a contrast. It is. It's
really interesting to see the impact of each
storm sort of individually. Yeah. And, you know,
Helene, it brought a ton of rain, just, you know,
flooded the southeast, especially after making
landfall in Florida as a huge, powerful category
four storm in late September 2024. Right. But
Milton, which hit Florida just a bit later in
early October, that's actually considered the
costliest hurricane of that time. 2024 season
for private insurers and it might even be one
of the costliest ever. Wow. So it sounds like
Melton, you know, its punch was more in the,
in the wind, in the wind damage. Right. And that
distinction between, you know, wind damage and
water damage, it really shapes how these insurance
companies deal with the aftermath. It does. And
it really highlights the crucial difference in
the way that insurance liabilities work and also
the overall economic impact on people and on
communities. So the fact that SEMA's debt has
now climbed to around $22 .5 billion with the
ability to borrow up to $30 .4 billion, that
just shows you the scale of these events and
how much we rely on the federal government to
help out with flood insurance. And it's interesting
that even after all that borrowing, the NFIP
still had over $600 million available at the
end of January to keep paying out claims. So
they're definitely working hard to manage all
these huge financial demands. And they have actually
made some progress in paying back some of that
debt. They've made about 2 .8 billion in principal
repayments since 2005, and that's not even counting
the interest payments, which are covered by the
premiums that policyholders pay. So that gives
us a little bit of a glimpse into the long -term
financial picture, the stability of this program.
So let's move on. Let's talk about something
that directly affects homeowners. Potential changes
to insurance liability. And this is specifically
in Florida. And it has to do with who is responsible
when a neighbor's tree falls and damages your
property. I see. This seems like something that
would happen pretty often. It does. And could
be pretty contentious, pretty controversial for
a homeowner. Oh, absolutely. It happens all the
time. And right now, the law in Florida, it says
that the responsibility for that damage caused
by the falling tree, it lies with the homeowner
where the tree lands. Right. So that means they're
the ones who have to deal with the insurance
claims and pay the deductibles. Wow. There's
this new proposal, they're calling it the Fallen
Tree Act. And it's aiming to change this rule.
And a shift like this could have a big impact
on how neighbors interact with each other and
how insurance claims get handled. Yeah. So what
would this new act actually do? Right. It sounds
like it would basically flip the responsibility.
It would. The goal of the Fallen Tree Act is
to shift that responsibility back to the owner
of the property where the tree actually came
from. So it could give some relief to those homeowners
who are stuck paying for the damage from a neighbor's
tree. But there's a bit of a gray area in the
bill that people need to be aware of. OK, so
what's the unclear part? What's the patch, especially
in a hurricane -prone state like Florida? Well,
the bill as it stands, it doesn't say who would
be responsible for the damage if the tree falls
during a big storm, like a hurricane, something
that they often legally classify as an act of
God or an act of nature. So given that Florida
gets hit by these severe weather events all the
time, hurricanes, high winds, this lack of clarity
is a bit of a problem. It could cause some real
issues. hurricane those winds are so strong,
how could you possibly prove that the tree owner
was somehow negligent? Yeah. Right. It just highlights
a potential loophole or at least, you know, an
area of confusion if this bill were to become
law. Yeah, that makes sense. And, you know, during
a huge hurricane, it would be pretty much impossible
to say, well, you know, the homeowner should
have known that their tree was going to fall.
Exactly. It just highlights that this could be
problematic for homeowners. Right. And the arborists
who have looked at this legislation, they've
pointed out that under the current laws, the
insurance companies, they usually handle these
kinds of things between themselves, especially
when it's obvious that the tree fell because
of a big storm. So they work out the claims.
They figure out who's liable without necessarily
having the neighbors sue each other. So the current
system You know, maybe it's not perfect for the
homeowner whose property gets damaged. Right.
But it at least gives the insurance companies
a way to manage these situations. Right. And
this new act could really disrupt that. Right.
And maybe even lead to more arguments between
neighbors. Yeah. So it sounds like the current
system, while maybe not ideal for the person
whose house, you know, takes the hit, at least
provides a path, a process for the insurance
companies to sort things out. Right. And this
new ad could really shake things up. It could.
So with all of this, with this potential shift
in liability and this this uncertainty around
what happens in major storms, you know, what
are what are the experts telling homeowners in
Florida? Well, the main thing they're saying
is, you know, read your insurance policy, really
take a look at it and understand what you might
have to pay for if your property gets damaged.
Right. And that includes damage from fallen trees.
no matter where the tree came from. They're also
suggesting that homeowners think about setting
up a kind of like an emergency fund specifically
for home repairs, separate from their regular
emergency savings so that they've got some money
set aside to cover things like insurance deductibles
or repairs that their insurance might not completely
cover. So being prepared, understanding your
coverage, having a little bit of money set aside,
that can really give you some peace of mind.
That's really good practical advice, especially
if you live in a place that gets a lot of severe
weather, like hurricanes. So let's shift gears
a little bit. Let's talk about the National Oceanic
Atmosphere Administration, or NOAA, as it's often
known, and the National Weather Service. It sounds
like the work that they do is really valuable.
Oh, it is. The general consensus is that NOAA
and the National Weather Service, they provide
a huge benefit to taxpayers, a real return on
that investment. And to put it in perspective,
it costs about $7 per person per year to run
the National Weather Service. But the benefits,
things like being prepared for bad weather, making
transportation safer, helping industries like
agriculture and construction be more efficient,
and preventing and mitigating disasters, those
benefits, they're estimated to be worth 10 to
100 times initial investment. Wow. So it's like
this this incredible multiplier effect. Yeah.
That's an amazing return. It really shows you
the power of having a good weather forecasting
system in place. Right. It's so much more than
just knowing whether to bring an umbrella. It
really affects our entire economy. And it seems
like NOAA has been really working to connect
those weather and ocean observations, the forecasts,
with emergency preparedness. Absolutely. Studies
have actually shown that the partnership with
the National Weather Service has really changed
the way the emergency management community works.
You know, instead of just reacting to disasters
after they happen, they can now be much more
proactive and prepared for these extreme events.
Right. And this ability to sort of anticipate
what the weather's gonna do, that brings huge
benefits to society. Yeah. You know, benefits
that we couldn't even dream of a few decades
ago. I mean, think about being able to plan evacuations
days before a hurricane hits. That saves lives.
Right. It reduces damage. It's amazing how accurate
our wetter forecasts are these days. Right. And
it's easy to take that for granted, but it's
clear that decades of investment in research
and technology have really paid off. They have.
So can you tell us a little bit more about some
of those investments, those crucial investments
that have made such a difference in how well
we can predict the weather? Yeah. So over the
past few decades, You know, taxpayer funding
has been really, really important in helping
us develop better computer models for weather
forecasting. Also, you know, getting data from
all these different sources, you know, weather
balloons, satellites, you know, buoys in the
ocean, aircraft, ground -based sensors, and also
just basic research to better understand how
the atmosphere works. All of these things, they've
had a huge impact on our ability to protect people
and property. You know, the daily forecasts,
the watches, the warnings that we see on TV,
on the internet, on our phones, those are all
a result of the hard work of scientists and technicians
at NOAA and the National Weather Service. And
some people even estimate that the tax revenue
generated by private companies that use NOAA's
data and services actually covers the entire
cost of running the National Weather Service.
Wow, that's incredible. It's amazing to think
about how far we've come. You mentioned that
people who remember weather forecasts from, say,
the 1970s or 80s, they can really appreciate
how much better they are now. Oh, yeah. Can you
give us a little bit of historical context? Just
how much has forecasting changed over the years,
over the decades? Well, compared to what we have
today, weather forecasts back in the late 20th
century, they were a lot less accurate. They
didn't give you as much warning, and they just
weren't as detailed. And then if you go back
even further to the early 1900s, I mean, hurricanes
would often hit the coast with almost no warning
at all. Wow. If you look at old newspapers from
back then, you know, from big hurricane events,
sometimes there's no mention of the storm that's
about to, you know, devastate the area in just
a few hours. Wow. That's unthinkable today, you
know, thanks to all the scientific advancements
we've made. That really puts things into perspective.
The fact that we can now have, you know, sometimes
days of warning before a hurricane makes landfall,
it's really amazing. It is. And it's not just
hurricanes. It seems like our ability to forecast
other severe weather, tornadoes, for example,
that's also gotten a lot better. Yeah, absolutely.
Tornado warning times have also improved significantly
over the past few decades. It's remarkable because
even though we have more people living in tornado
-prone areas now than ever before, the number
of deaths and injuries from tornadoes hasn't
included at the same rate. Right. So that suggests
that the investments in NOAA and the National
Weather Service, you know, they're saving lives
and reducing the impact of these terrible events.
It's estimated that hundreds of thousands of
people are alive today because of these improvements
in forecasting and the preparedness that those
forecasts allow. That's an incredible accomplishment.
And as we've seen that ability to predict the
weather accurately, it has such a positive impact
on our society. Yeah, it does. some of the information
you shared, it also, it raises some concerns
about the future of NOAA, especially regarding
some recent and potential staff cuts. Yeah, that's
a real worry. There have been some staff reductions
at NOAA recently, and that included initially
letting go of some of the Hurricane Hunter flight
crew, although some of them have been rehired.
Okay. But... These actions have you know, they've
caused a lot of concern both among meteorologists
and in the emergency management community Especially
as we head into another hurricane season, right?
And there are also reports that you know There
could be even more significant staff cuts at
NOAA in the future right and that could really
affect the agency's ability to to do its job
effectively. The fact that those hurricane hunters
were initially let go is concerning. Yeah, it
is. So can you explain to our listeners why these
hurricane hunter flights and the data they collect
are so important? What do they do that other
systems can't? Well... The Hurricane Hunter flights,
they're run by NOAA's fleet of special aircraft,
and they're really crucial for gathering information
about what's happening inside and around these
tropical cyclones, these hurricanes. And they
do this in real time. These brave flight crews,
they fly right into the eye of the storm. And
they collect really important data about the
hurricane's internal pressure, the wind speeds
at different altitudes, the temperature, and
the overall structure of the storm. And then
this information is sent. straight to the National
Hurricane Center. And it gets... fed into those
complex computer models that meteorologists use
to predict where the hurricane is going to go,
what we call its track, and how strong it's going
to get, which is its intensity. And without this
inside view of the storm, those models would
have to rely on satellite images and other remote
sensing data. They're useful, but they're not
as precise. They might miss some crucial details
about what's actually going on inside the hurricane
itself. So these hurricane hunter flights, they
basically provide that ground truth that helps
make our predictions a lot more accurate. And
what would happen if we didn't have enough data
from these hurricane hunter flights? It sounds
like it would make all of our forecasts less
reliable. It would. If we don't have that critical
data, or if we don't get it in time, it means
those hurricane track and intensity forecasts.
they're going to be less accurate. And that could
delay warnings for emergency managers and for
people living in the path of the storm. And that
could have a knock -on effect on those really
important decisions about when and where to issue
evacuations, how to prepare for the storm. And
on top of that, there's also the worry that if
NOAA's research labs get hit with budget cuts,
that could slow down improvements in hurricane
modeling. And those improvements are They're
essential for making our forecasts even better
in the future. The whole emergency management
community relies on that timely and accurate
information from those hurricane hunter flights
to adjust their forecasts, to fine tune evacuation
plans, to really figure out where the storm is
most likely to make landfall. So any disruption
to that data flow could have serious consequences.
It really highlights how all of these different
things are connected, you know? They are. A cut
in staffing at an agency like NOAA, it can really
have an impact on the accuracy of our forecasts
and, you know, ultimately on public safety. Absolutely.
So let's talk about something called accumulated
cyclone energy, or ACE. OK. This is a way of
measuring how much activity there is during a
hurricane season. Right. The ACE index was developed
to give us a better way to track the overall
power of all the named storms throughout a whole
hurricane season. So it doesn't just count how
many storms there are. It takes into account
how long each storm lasts and how strong its
winds are over its entire lifetime. So basically,
a hurricane that hangs around for a long time
and has really strong winds, that's going to
contribute a lot more to the season's ACE value
than a short -lived, weaker tropical storm. So
it's not just counting how many storms pop up.
It really looks at how intense they are, how
long they last. Right. So what would you consider
an average ACE value for for a typical hurricane
season? Well, the average ACE value for an Atlantic
hurricane season is about 122 .5, but of course
it can vary a lot from year to year. Like in
2005, which was a really active year with some
incredibly strong storms, the ACE value was over
245. That's more than double the average. And
to give you an example of how much one really
strong storm can affect the ACE Hurricane Ivan
back in 2004, that holds the record for the most
ACE points ever accumulated by a single cyclone
in the Atlantic. So you can see how one really
powerful, long -lasting hurricane can really
skew the seasonal total. It's interesting how
just one really strong storm can change the overall
ACE for the whole season. Right. But you mentioned
that the ACE doesn't account for all the potential
impacts of a hurricane, you know, like flooding.
Can you explain that a little bit? Yeah, that's
a really important point. So while ACE is great
for measuring a storm's intensity and duration,
you know, based on its wind speeds, it doesn't
measure other things like how much rain the storm
produces and the flooding that comes with that
or whether it spawns tornadoes and Hurricane
Helene in 2024. That's a perfect example. It
had a pretty low ACE value compared to some other
major hurricanes, but it caused a lot of flooding,
widespread flooding, which made it one of the
costliest U .S. hurricanes on record. So even
if a hurricane season has a lower ACE, it doesn't
mean there won't be individual storms that are
really destructive because of those other factors
that ACE doesn't measure. That's really important
for people to remember. Just because a hurricane
season has a lower ACE doesn't mean it's going
to be less impactful if you happen to be in the
path of one of those really damaging storms.
Exactly. So how do experts view the ACE index
as a way of measuring hurricane season activity?
What are its strengths and weaknesses? Well,
most experts think that ACE is a more accurate
and useful way. to measure hurricane season activity
than just counting how many named storms there
are. OK. And this is especially true now because
we're better at detecting and monitoring tropical
cyclones with all the satellite technology, the
improved forecast models, all those observation
tools. So because of that, we're naming more
storms each year, including some that are pretty
weak and don't last very long. But just because
there are more named storms, it doesn't mean
the season is more intense or more impactful.
The ACE index helps us see the bigger picture
by looking at the strength and duration of those
storms. So for example, in 2023, the Atlantic
hurricane season had 20 named storms. which is
a lot, but the overall ACE was actually close
to the average. OK. So that tells us that many
of those storms were pretty weak and short lived.
And in fact, that season was generally considered
to be less impactful than some others with fewer
but stronger storms. So ACE really gives us a
more complete picture of the total energy of
a hurricane season. It does. It goes beyond just
counting how many storms there are. And, you
know, as we look ahead, we're already starting
to think about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season,
which begins on June 1st. And we actually already
have the list of names that will be given to
any storms that form. Right. The World Meteorological
Organization, they released the list of names
well before the season starts. And they use those
names for any tropical storms that reach wind
speeds of at least 39 miles per hour. And for
2025, the list starts with Adrea and goes alphabetically
through Wendy. And if a storm gets stronger and
reaches wind speeds of 74 miles per hour, then
it becomes a hurricane. But it keeps the same
name it had as a tropical storm. And, you know,
there are no names on the list that start with
Q, U, X, Y, or Z. Right. Mostly because there
just aren't that many common names that start
with those letters. Right. It's a familiar process
for anyone who follows hurricane season. Yeah.
And of course, if a hurricane causes a lot of
damage or a lot of loss of life, its name can
be retired. Right. And replaced with... a different
name in the future so that we don't have to be
reminded of those tragic events. Exactly. So
with the list of names out there for 2025, can
we say anything about how severe or how active
the upcoming hurricane season might be? Honestly,
it's still way too early to say for sure. You
know, some forecasting organizations will start
to make predictions in the next few months, but
the truth is, the number and intensity of storms
that form, it depends on so many different factors,
you know, in the atmosphere and the ocean. And
it's just too early to predict those things with
any certainty. So we have the names ready, but
we'll just have to wait and see what Mother Nature
has in store for us. Well, it looks like we've
reached the end of our meteorological journey
for today. We've covered a lot. of ground on
the Meteorology Matters podcast. We've talked
about the financial toll of these hurricanes.
We talked about those potential changes to homeowner
liability in Florida. The really crucial work
of the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration,
how we measure hurricane season activity using
that accumulated cyclone energy index. And we
even got a sneak peek at the storm names for
the upcoming 2025 season. it's clear that all
of these things are connected and understanding
those connections is really important for all
of us. Absolutely. As we prepare for and respond
to severe weather, the science is always evolving,
the systems we have in place are always improving,
and staying informed about those changes can
really make a difference. Yeah, we encourage
you to keep learning about these topics, to think
about how they might affect you, your community.
What does a change like the Fallen Tree Act mean
for for how we interact with our neighbors for
insurance claims. How could changes at NOAA,
at the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration
affect how quickly and how accurately we get
those severe weather warnings? These are all
things to think about. And thanks so much for
joining us today. And for more information and
updates, remember to follow meteorologist Rob
Jones. He's on Instagram, Meteorologist, on TikTok
TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube you can follow
Rob Jones Hurricane. And that's also where you'll
find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist.
And one last thought for you to consider. We're
seeing more and more extreme weather events these
days. Right. And they're getting more intense.
So how do you think our communities can best
use the amazing forecasting technology we have
and all the data that NOAA provides to plan for
the future and build more resilient infrastructure?
And ultimately, how do we create a culture of
preparedness at the local level? These are some
really important questions for all of us to ponder
as we face the challenges of a changing climate.
We'll see you next time. See you then.