WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.339 All right, welcome everyone to Meteorology Matters. 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:07.280 If you're really interested in understanding 00:00:07.280 --> 00:00:10.759 what makes our world tick, you know, the forces 00:00:10.759 --> 00:00:12.640 that shape it, then you are definitely in the 00:00:12.640 --> 00:00:15.099 right place. Yeah, for sure. Today we're gonna 00:00:15.099 --> 00:00:17.879 be, you know, we're gonna be focusing on the 00:00:17.879 --> 00:00:20.039 fascinating world of meteorology. Okay. We're 00:00:20.039 --> 00:00:23.059 gonna be looking at hurricanes, recent activity 00:00:23.059 --> 00:00:24.960 and kind of the patterns we're seeing. That's 00:00:24.960 --> 00:00:28.059 good. And importantly, the impact that these 00:00:28.059 --> 00:00:31.399 hurricanes have on our wallets, on our communities. 00:00:31.899 --> 00:00:34.560 Absolutely. So you shared some really interesting 00:00:34.560 --> 00:00:37.759 stuff with us, some cool information. Yeah. And 00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:40.119 today, we're going to try to unpack all of this. 00:00:41.079 --> 00:00:43.979 you know, how hurricane activity is tied to things 00:00:43.979 --> 00:00:47.280 like insurance and also the crucial role that 00:00:47.280 --> 00:00:49.539 agencies like the National Oceanic Atmosphere 00:00:49.539 --> 00:00:52.700 Administration play in all of this. We really 00:00:52.700 --> 00:00:55.960 want to give you a clear picture of what's happening 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:59.020 and why it matters so much. OK, great. And hey, 00:00:59.299 --> 00:01:02.200 if you want to. to dive even deeper and stay 00:01:02.200 --> 00:01:05.079 up to date, you can follow meteorologist Rob 00:01:05.079 --> 00:01:08.120 Jones. He's on Instagram meteorologist on TikTok 00:01:08.120 --> 00:01:11.140 TV meteorologist. And if you're on YouTube, follow 00:01:11.140 --> 00:01:13.680 Rob Jones Hurricane. That's where you'll find 00:01:13.680 --> 00:01:16.459 Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. Yeah. All 00:01:16.459 --> 00:01:19.239 right. So let's just jump right into it. Let's 00:01:19.239 --> 00:01:21.799 talk about the money. Let's talk about the financial 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:24.659 toll of some of these recent hurricanes. It seems 00:01:24.659 --> 00:01:28.040 like FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, 00:01:28.519 --> 00:01:30.780 they've announced they need to borrow a pretty 00:01:30.780 --> 00:01:32.959 substantial amount of money, something like $2 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:35.760 billion from the U .S. Treasury. And this isn't 00:01:35.760 --> 00:01:39.260 just for day -to -day operations. This is specifically 00:01:39.260 --> 00:01:42.900 to cover claims from people who are insured by... 00:01:42.890 --> 00:01:45.170 the National Flood Insurance Program, the NFIP. 00:01:45.250 --> 00:01:48.549 Right. This really just underscores the immediate 00:01:48.549 --> 00:01:51.290 financial impact that these storms can bring, 00:01:51.290 --> 00:01:53.250 you know? Oh, yeah. It makes you wonder about 00:01:53.250 --> 00:01:56.469 how sustainable this whole system is. Well, the 00:01:56.469 --> 00:01:58.450 numbers are really something. I mean, we're looking 00:01:58.450 --> 00:02:01.349 at potentially over $10 billion in flood insurance 00:02:01.349 --> 00:02:03.849 claims just from hurricanes Alene and Milton 00:02:03.849 --> 00:02:06.629 back in 2024, you know, and that's not even counting. 00:02:07.049 --> 00:02:08.810 all the other flooding events that happened that 00:02:08.810 --> 00:02:12.210 year. So it's putting a huge strain on the NTIPS 00:02:12.210 --> 00:02:14.430 resources. They just weren't designed to handle 00:02:14.430 --> 00:02:17.509 this many big catastrophic events one right after 00:02:17.509 --> 00:02:19.849 the other without needing to tap into some extra 00:02:19.849 --> 00:02:22.550 funds. I think it raises some serious questions 00:02:22.550 --> 00:02:25.289 about whether the premiums people are paying 00:02:25.289 --> 00:02:29.370 are actually enough to cover the ever increasing 00:02:29.370 --> 00:02:32.300 costs of all this flood damage. especially with 00:02:32.300 --> 00:02:34.580 the possibility of climate change leading to 00:02:34.580 --> 00:02:38.020 even more intense storms in the future. And for 00:02:38.020 --> 00:02:40.500 the average person out there, this could mean 00:02:40.500 --> 00:02:43.159 their insurance premiums are going to go up. 00:02:43.340 --> 00:02:44.919 Maybe they're going to see some changes in what 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:47.099 their insurance policies actually cover, something 00:02:47.099 --> 00:02:49.620 to definitely keep an eye on. Right. So it sounds 00:02:49.620 --> 00:02:52.500 like this NFIP, it just isn't really built to 00:02:52.500 --> 00:02:57.150 handle this kind of like... of huge disasters 00:02:57.150 --> 00:02:59.490 all in one year without needing that backup, 00:02:59.830 --> 00:03:02.449 that financial backup. And it seems like just 00:03:02.449 --> 00:03:04.750 the scale of the financial impact from 2024, 00:03:04.949 --> 00:03:09.069 those storms pretty much exhausted the money 00:03:09.069 --> 00:03:11.349 that they had been collecting through these premiums 00:03:11.349 --> 00:03:13.650 to actually pay out on those claims. It seems 00:03:13.650 --> 00:03:16.189 like a system under a lot of stress, a lot of 00:03:16.189 --> 00:03:19.990 strain. It's fascinating to actually look at 00:03:19.990 --> 00:03:22.889 the specific numbers, the figures for each of 00:03:22.889 --> 00:03:24.610 these storms, right? Yeah, absolutely. So if 00:03:24.610 --> 00:03:28.770 we take a closer look for Helene, by early February 00:03:28.770 --> 00:03:31.460 this year... They had already processed over 00:03:31.460 --> 00:03:34.800 57 ,400 flood claims. That's a lot. And paid 00:03:34.800 --> 00:03:38.300 out more than 4 .5 billion. And the estimates 00:03:38.300 --> 00:03:40.560 for the total losses from Helene, they range 00:03:40.560 --> 00:03:43.280 from 6 .4 billion to 7 .4 billion. And then you 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:46.199 got Milton, different kind of damage, but still 00:03:46.199 --> 00:03:50.319 over 21 ,100 claims. Got over 740 million paid 00:03:50.319 --> 00:03:55.370 out by early February. the total estimated losses 00:03:55.370 --> 00:03:58.169 for Milton, somewhere between 1 .2 billion and 00:03:58.169 --> 00:04:01.490 2 .9 billion. It's quite a contrast. It is. It's 00:04:01.490 --> 00:04:03.550 really interesting to see the impact of each 00:04:03.550 --> 00:04:05.770 storm sort of individually. Yeah. And, you know, 00:04:05.770 --> 00:04:07.909 Helene, it brought a ton of rain, just, you know, 00:04:08.090 --> 00:04:10.550 flooded the southeast, especially after making 00:04:10.550 --> 00:04:13.490 landfall in Florida as a huge, powerful category 00:04:13.490 --> 00:04:17.290 four storm in late September 2024. Right. But 00:04:17.290 --> 00:04:19.430 Milton, which hit Florida just a bit later in 00:04:19.430 --> 00:04:21.629 early October, that's actually considered the 00:04:21.629 --> 00:04:24.250 costliest hurricane of that time. 2024 season 00:04:24.250 --> 00:04:26.750 for private insurers and it might even be one 00:04:26.750 --> 00:04:29.689 of the costliest ever. Wow. So it sounds like 00:04:29.689 --> 00:04:31.829 Melton, you know, its punch was more in the, 00:04:31.829 --> 00:04:34.149 in the wind, in the wind damage. Right. And that 00:04:34.149 --> 00:04:36.370 distinction between, you know, wind damage and 00:04:36.370 --> 00:04:39.069 water damage, it really shapes how these insurance 00:04:39.069 --> 00:04:41.660 companies deal with the aftermath. It does. And 00:04:41.660 --> 00:04:44.699 it really highlights the crucial difference in 00:04:44.699 --> 00:04:47.360 the way that insurance liabilities work and also 00:04:47.360 --> 00:04:50.079 the overall economic impact on people and on 00:04:50.079 --> 00:04:53.160 communities. So the fact that SEMA's debt has 00:04:53.160 --> 00:04:56.660 now climbed to around $22 .5 billion with the 00:04:56.660 --> 00:04:58.779 ability to borrow up to $30 .4 billion, that 00:04:58.779 --> 00:05:01.620 just shows you the scale of these events and 00:05:01.620 --> 00:05:03.699 how much we rely on the federal government to 00:05:03.699 --> 00:05:06.800 help out with flood insurance. And it's interesting 00:05:06.800 --> 00:05:09.759 that even after all that borrowing, the NFIP 00:05:09.759 --> 00:05:13.050 still had over $600 million available at the 00:05:13.050 --> 00:05:15.970 end of January to keep paying out claims. So 00:05:15.970 --> 00:05:18.370 they're definitely working hard to manage all 00:05:18.370 --> 00:05:21.589 these huge financial demands. And they have actually 00:05:21.589 --> 00:05:23.970 made some progress in paying back some of that 00:05:23.970 --> 00:05:26.889 debt. They've made about 2 .8 billion in principal 00:05:26.889 --> 00:05:29.009 repayments since 2005, and that's not even counting 00:05:29.009 --> 00:05:31.610 the interest payments, which are covered by the 00:05:31.610 --> 00:05:33.910 premiums that policyholders pay. So that gives 00:05:33.910 --> 00:05:38.189 us a little bit of a glimpse into the long -term 00:05:38.189 --> 00:05:40.610 financial picture, the stability of this program. 00:05:40.629 --> 00:05:43.149 So let's move on. Let's talk about something 00:05:43.149 --> 00:05:47.170 that directly affects homeowners. Potential changes 00:05:47.170 --> 00:05:51.410 to insurance liability. And this is specifically 00:05:51.410 --> 00:05:56.350 in Florida. And it has to do with who is responsible 00:05:56.350 --> 00:06:01.009 when a neighbor's tree falls and damages your 00:06:01.009 --> 00:06:03.379 property. I see. This seems like something that 00:06:03.379 --> 00:06:06.519 would happen pretty often. It does. And could 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:09.300 be pretty contentious, pretty controversial for 00:06:09.300 --> 00:06:11.839 a homeowner. Oh, absolutely. It happens all the 00:06:11.839 --> 00:06:15.000 time. And right now, the law in Florida, it says 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:18.560 that the responsibility for that damage caused 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:21.100 by the falling tree, it lies with the homeowner 00:06:21.100 --> 00:06:23.160 where the tree lands. Right. So that means they're 00:06:23.160 --> 00:06:25.079 the ones who have to deal with the insurance 00:06:25.079 --> 00:06:28.579 claims and pay the deductibles. Wow. There's 00:06:28.579 --> 00:06:30.339 this new proposal, they're calling it the Fallen 00:06:30.339 --> 00:06:34.000 Tree Act. And it's aiming to change this rule. 00:06:34.699 --> 00:06:37.160 And a shift like this could have a big impact 00:06:37.160 --> 00:06:40.220 on how neighbors interact with each other and 00:06:40.220 --> 00:06:43.120 how insurance claims get handled. Yeah. So what 00:06:43.120 --> 00:06:45.860 would this new act actually do? Right. It sounds 00:06:45.860 --> 00:06:48.620 like it would basically flip the responsibility. 00:06:48.910 --> 00:06:51.829 It would. The goal of the Fallen Tree Act is 00:06:51.829 --> 00:06:55.370 to shift that responsibility back to the owner 00:06:55.370 --> 00:06:57.769 of the property where the tree actually came 00:06:57.769 --> 00:07:01.310 from. So it could give some relief to those homeowners 00:07:01.310 --> 00:07:04.290 who are stuck paying for the damage from a neighbor's 00:07:04.290 --> 00:07:07.250 tree. But there's a bit of a gray area in the 00:07:07.250 --> 00:07:09.329 bill that people need to be aware of. OK, so 00:07:09.329 --> 00:07:13.029 what's the unclear part? What's the patch, especially 00:07:13.029 --> 00:07:16.269 in a hurricane -prone state like Florida? Well, 00:07:16.410 --> 00:07:19.209 the bill as it stands, it doesn't say who would 00:07:19.209 --> 00:07:21.370 be responsible for the damage if the tree falls 00:07:21.370 --> 00:07:23.990 during a big storm, like a hurricane, something 00:07:23.990 --> 00:07:27.250 that they often legally classify as an act of 00:07:27.250 --> 00:07:30.670 God or an act of nature. So given that Florida 00:07:30.670 --> 00:07:35.050 gets hit by these severe weather events all the 00:07:35.050 --> 00:07:38.850 time, hurricanes, high winds, this lack of clarity 00:07:38.850 --> 00:07:41.970 is a bit of a problem. It could cause some real 00:07:41.970 --> 00:07:45.199 issues. hurricane those winds are so strong, 00:07:45.819 --> 00:07:48.360 how could you possibly prove that the tree owner 00:07:48.360 --> 00:07:52.160 was somehow negligent? Yeah. Right. It just highlights 00:07:52.160 --> 00:07:54.740 a potential loophole or at least, you know, an 00:07:54.740 --> 00:07:57.720 area of confusion if this bill were to become 00:07:57.720 --> 00:08:00.600 law. Yeah, that makes sense. And, you know, during 00:08:00.600 --> 00:08:03.680 a huge hurricane, it would be pretty much impossible 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:05.819 to say, well, you know, the homeowner should 00:08:05.819 --> 00:08:07.300 have known that their tree was going to fall. 00:08:07.420 --> 00:08:10.519 Exactly. It just highlights that this could be 00:08:10.519 --> 00:08:15.300 problematic for homeowners. Right. And the arborists 00:08:15.300 --> 00:08:17.420 who have looked at this legislation, they've 00:08:17.420 --> 00:08:19.220 pointed out that under the current laws, the 00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:21.319 insurance companies, they usually handle these 00:08:21.319 --> 00:08:23.519 kinds of things between themselves, especially 00:08:23.519 --> 00:08:25.459 when it's obvious that the tree fell because 00:08:25.459 --> 00:08:28.779 of a big storm. So they work out the claims. 00:08:29.160 --> 00:08:31.819 They figure out who's liable without necessarily 00:08:31.819 --> 00:08:35.340 having the neighbors sue each other. So the current 00:08:35.340 --> 00:08:38.039 system You know, maybe it's not perfect for the 00:08:38.039 --> 00:08:40.340 homeowner whose property gets damaged. Right. 00:08:40.580 --> 00:08:43.399 But it at least gives the insurance companies 00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:45.500 a way to manage these situations. Right. And 00:08:45.500 --> 00:08:48.059 this new act could really disrupt that. Right. 00:08:48.220 --> 00:08:51.279 And maybe even lead to more arguments between 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:53.399 neighbors. Yeah. So it sounds like the current 00:08:53.399 --> 00:08:56.659 system, while maybe not ideal for the person 00:08:56.659 --> 00:08:59.379 whose house, you know, takes the hit, at least 00:08:59.379 --> 00:09:02.100 provides a path, a process for the insurance 00:09:02.100 --> 00:09:05.480 companies to sort things out. Right. And this 00:09:05.480 --> 00:09:08.159 new ad could really shake things up. It could. 00:09:08.679 --> 00:09:11.740 So with all of this, with this potential shift 00:09:11.740 --> 00:09:14.460 in liability and this this uncertainty around 00:09:14.460 --> 00:09:16.779 what happens in major storms, you know, what 00:09:16.779 --> 00:09:19.620 are what are the experts telling homeowners in 00:09:19.620 --> 00:09:21.399 Florida? Well, the main thing they're saying 00:09:21.399 --> 00:09:23.980 is, you know, read your insurance policy, really 00:09:23.980 --> 00:09:25.779 take a look at it and understand what you might 00:09:25.779 --> 00:09:28.220 have to pay for if your property gets damaged. 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:31.059 Right. And that includes damage from fallen trees. 00:09:31.759 --> 00:09:34.019 no matter where the tree came from. They're also 00:09:34.019 --> 00:09:36.159 suggesting that homeowners think about setting 00:09:36.159 --> 00:09:38.759 up a kind of like an emergency fund specifically 00:09:38.759 --> 00:09:42.220 for home repairs, separate from their regular 00:09:42.220 --> 00:09:44.820 emergency savings so that they've got some money 00:09:44.820 --> 00:09:47.700 set aside to cover things like insurance deductibles 00:09:47.700 --> 00:09:50.019 or repairs that their insurance might not completely 00:09:50.019 --> 00:09:53.059 cover. So being prepared, understanding your 00:09:53.059 --> 00:09:55.960 coverage, having a little bit of money set aside, 00:09:56.960 --> 00:09:58.639 that can really give you some peace of mind. 00:09:59.370 --> 00:10:02.049 That's really good practical advice, especially 00:10:02.049 --> 00:10:04.210 if you live in a place that gets a lot of severe 00:10:04.210 --> 00:10:08.009 weather, like hurricanes. So let's shift gears 00:10:08.009 --> 00:10:12.009 a little bit. Let's talk about the National Oceanic 00:10:12.009 --> 00:10:15.190 Atmosphere Administration, or NOAA, as it's often 00:10:15.190 --> 00:10:18.730 known, and the National Weather Service. It sounds 00:10:18.730 --> 00:10:20.990 like the work that they do is really valuable. 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:23.259 Oh, it is. The general consensus is that NOAA 00:10:23.259 --> 00:10:25.200 and the National Weather Service, they provide 00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:28.700 a huge benefit to taxpayers, a real return on 00:10:28.700 --> 00:10:31.080 that investment. And to put it in perspective, 00:10:31.419 --> 00:10:34.080 it costs about $7 per person per year to run 00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:36.559 the National Weather Service. But the benefits, 00:10:36.879 --> 00:10:39.399 things like being prepared for bad weather, making 00:10:39.399 --> 00:10:42.080 transportation safer, helping industries like 00:10:42.080 --> 00:10:44.059 agriculture and construction be more efficient, 00:10:44.519 --> 00:10:46.940 and preventing and mitigating disasters, those 00:10:46.940 --> 00:10:49.779 benefits, they're estimated to be worth 10 to 00:10:49.779 --> 00:10:52.980 100 times initial investment. Wow. So it's like 00:10:52.980 --> 00:10:55.690 this this incredible multiplier effect. Yeah. 00:10:55.789 --> 00:10:57.850 That's an amazing return. It really shows you 00:10:57.850 --> 00:11:00.950 the power of having a good weather forecasting 00:11:00.950 --> 00:11:03.669 system in place. Right. It's so much more than 00:11:03.669 --> 00:11:06.490 just knowing whether to bring an umbrella. It 00:11:06.490 --> 00:11:09.289 really affects our entire economy. And it seems 00:11:09.289 --> 00:11:12.269 like NOAA has been really working to connect 00:11:12.269 --> 00:11:15.210 those weather and ocean observations, the forecasts, 00:11:15.490 --> 00:11:18.549 with emergency preparedness. Absolutely. Studies 00:11:18.549 --> 00:11:20.370 have actually shown that the partnership with 00:11:20.370 --> 00:11:22.590 the National Weather Service has really changed 00:11:22.590 --> 00:11:24.649 the way the emergency management community works. 00:11:24.490 --> 00:11:27.730 You know, instead of just reacting to disasters 00:11:27.730 --> 00:11:30.850 after they happen, they can now be much more 00:11:30.850 --> 00:11:34.330 proactive and prepared for these extreme events. 00:11:34.330 --> 00:11:37.070 Right. And this ability to sort of anticipate 00:11:37.070 --> 00:11:40.370 what the weather's gonna do, that brings huge 00:11:40.370 --> 00:11:42.710 benefits to society. Yeah. You know, benefits 00:11:42.710 --> 00:11:44.610 that we couldn't even dream of a few decades 00:11:44.610 --> 00:11:48.169 ago. I mean, think about being able to plan evacuations 00:11:48.169 --> 00:11:51.720 days before a hurricane hits. That saves lives. 00:11:51.940 --> 00:11:55.899 Right. It reduces damage. It's amazing how accurate 00:11:55.899 --> 00:11:58.240 our wetter forecasts are these days. Right. And 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:00.899 it's easy to take that for granted, but it's 00:12:00.899 --> 00:12:03.639 clear that decades of investment in research 00:12:03.639 --> 00:12:05.559 and technology have really paid off. They have. 00:12:05.659 --> 00:12:08.100 So can you tell us a little bit more about some 00:12:08.100 --> 00:12:09.940 of those investments, those crucial investments 00:12:09.940 --> 00:12:11.620 that have made such a difference in how well 00:12:11.620 --> 00:12:15.139 we can predict the weather? Yeah. So over the 00:12:15.139 --> 00:12:17.820 past few decades, You know, taxpayer funding 00:12:17.820 --> 00:12:20.519 has been really, really important in helping 00:12:20.519 --> 00:12:23.580 us develop better computer models for weather 00:12:23.580 --> 00:12:27.519 forecasting. Also, you know, getting data from 00:12:27.519 --> 00:12:29.039 all these different sources, you know, weather 00:12:29.039 --> 00:12:31.399 balloons, satellites, you know, buoys in the 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:35.120 ocean, aircraft, ground -based sensors, and also 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.879 just basic research to better understand how 00:12:37.879 --> 00:12:40.720 the atmosphere works. All of these things, they've 00:12:40.720 --> 00:12:44.379 had a huge impact on our ability to protect people 00:12:44.379 --> 00:12:47.100 and property. You know, the daily forecasts, 00:12:47.259 --> 00:12:49.480 the watches, the warnings that we see on TV, 00:12:49.620 --> 00:12:51.940 on the internet, on our phones, those are all 00:12:51.940 --> 00:12:55.320 a result of the hard work of scientists and technicians 00:12:55.320 --> 00:12:58.100 at NOAA and the National Weather Service. And 00:12:58.100 --> 00:13:00.440 some people even estimate that the tax revenue 00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:03.120 generated by private companies that use NOAA's 00:13:03.120 --> 00:13:05.539 data and services actually covers the entire 00:13:05.539 --> 00:13:07.799 cost of running the National Weather Service. 00:13:08.000 --> 00:13:10.340 Wow, that's incredible. It's amazing to think 00:13:10.340 --> 00:13:13.799 about how far we've come. You mentioned that 00:13:13.799 --> 00:13:17.259 people who remember weather forecasts from, say, 00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:20.799 the 1970s or 80s, they can really appreciate 00:13:20.799 --> 00:13:23.529 how much better they are now. Oh, yeah. Can you 00:13:23.529 --> 00:13:26.450 give us a little bit of historical context? Just 00:13:26.450 --> 00:13:29.970 how much has forecasting changed over the years, 00:13:30.190 --> 00:13:31.950 over the decades? Well, compared to what we have 00:13:31.950 --> 00:13:35.570 today, weather forecasts back in the late 20th 00:13:35.570 --> 00:13:38.350 century, they were a lot less accurate. They 00:13:38.350 --> 00:13:40.389 didn't give you as much warning, and they just 00:13:40.389 --> 00:13:42.210 weren't as detailed. And then if you go back 00:13:42.210 --> 00:13:46.909 even further to the early 1900s, I mean, hurricanes 00:13:46.909 --> 00:13:49.610 would often hit the coast with almost no warning 00:13:49.610 --> 00:13:52.490 at all. Wow. If you look at old newspapers from 00:13:52.490 --> 00:13:54.929 back then, you know, from big hurricane events, 00:13:55.409 --> 00:13:57.429 sometimes there's no mention of the storm that's 00:13:57.429 --> 00:13:59.950 about to, you know, devastate the area in just 00:13:59.950 --> 00:14:03.190 a few hours. Wow. That's unthinkable today, you 00:14:03.190 --> 00:14:05.409 know, thanks to all the scientific advancements 00:14:05.409 --> 00:14:07.909 we've made. That really puts things into perspective. 00:14:08.269 --> 00:14:10.570 The fact that we can now have, you know, sometimes 00:14:10.570 --> 00:14:13.809 days of warning before a hurricane makes landfall, 00:14:14.509 --> 00:14:18.029 it's really amazing. It is. And it's not just 00:14:18.029 --> 00:14:20.929 hurricanes. It seems like our ability to forecast 00:14:20.929 --> 00:14:23.389 other severe weather, tornadoes, for example, 00:14:23.509 --> 00:14:25.470 that's also gotten a lot better. Yeah, absolutely. 00:14:25.870 --> 00:14:29.370 Tornado warning times have also improved significantly 00:14:29.370 --> 00:14:34.860 over the past few decades. It's remarkable because 00:14:34.860 --> 00:14:37.179 even though we have more people living in tornado 00:14:37.179 --> 00:14:40.759 -prone areas now than ever before, the number 00:14:40.759 --> 00:14:43.480 of deaths and injuries from tornadoes hasn't 00:14:43.480 --> 00:14:45.759 included at the same rate. Right. So that suggests 00:14:45.759 --> 00:14:47.600 that the investments in NOAA and the National 00:14:47.600 --> 00:14:50.820 Weather Service, you know, they're saving lives 00:14:50.820 --> 00:14:53.980 and reducing the impact of these terrible events. 00:14:54.419 --> 00:14:56.600 It's estimated that hundreds of thousands of 00:14:56.600 --> 00:14:59.440 people are alive today because of these improvements 00:14:59.440 --> 00:15:02.379 in forecasting and the preparedness that those 00:15:02.379 --> 00:15:04.940 forecasts allow. That's an incredible accomplishment. 00:15:05.220 --> 00:15:07.379 And as we've seen that ability to predict the 00:15:07.379 --> 00:15:10.519 weather accurately, it has such a positive impact 00:15:10.519 --> 00:15:13.809 on our society. Yeah, it does. some of the information 00:15:13.809 --> 00:15:16.370 you shared, it also, it raises some concerns 00:15:16.370 --> 00:15:19.049 about the future of NOAA, especially regarding 00:15:19.049 --> 00:15:22.629 some recent and potential staff cuts. Yeah, that's 00:15:22.629 --> 00:15:24.830 a real worry. There have been some staff reductions 00:15:24.830 --> 00:15:28.250 at NOAA recently, and that included initially 00:15:28.250 --> 00:15:30.470 letting go of some of the Hurricane Hunter flight 00:15:30.470 --> 00:15:32.350 crew, although some of them have been rehired. 00:15:32.370 --> 00:15:35.620 Okay. But... These actions have you know, they've 00:15:35.620 --> 00:15:38.340 caused a lot of concern both among meteorologists 00:15:38.340 --> 00:15:41.220 and in the emergency management community Especially 00:15:41.220 --> 00:15:43.320 as we head into another hurricane season, right? 00:15:43.679 --> 00:15:45.759 And there are also reports that you know There 00:15:45.759 --> 00:15:48.759 could be even more significant staff cuts at 00:15:48.759 --> 00:15:50.960 NOAA in the future right and that could really 00:15:50.960 --> 00:15:54.370 affect the agency's ability to to do its job 00:15:54.370 --> 00:15:57.070 effectively. The fact that those hurricane hunters 00:15:57.070 --> 00:16:00.409 were initially let go is concerning. Yeah, it 00:16:00.409 --> 00:16:03.370 is. So can you explain to our listeners why these 00:16:03.370 --> 00:16:05.490 hurricane hunter flights and the data they collect 00:16:05.490 --> 00:16:08.450 are so important? What do they do that other 00:16:08.450 --> 00:16:12.179 systems can't? Well... The Hurricane Hunter flights, 00:16:12.340 --> 00:16:14.820 they're run by NOAA's fleet of special aircraft, 00:16:15.139 --> 00:16:17.980 and they're really crucial for gathering information 00:16:17.980 --> 00:16:20.480 about what's happening inside and around these 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:22.940 tropical cyclones, these hurricanes. And they 00:16:22.940 --> 00:16:25.299 do this in real time. These brave flight crews, 00:16:25.299 --> 00:16:28.399 they fly right into the eye of the storm. And 00:16:28.399 --> 00:16:30.799 they collect really important data about the 00:16:30.799 --> 00:16:33.100 hurricane's internal pressure, the wind speeds 00:16:33.100 --> 00:16:35.840 at different altitudes, the temperature, and 00:16:35.840 --> 00:16:38.179 the overall structure of the storm. And then 00:16:38.179 --> 00:16:41.320 this information is sent. straight to the National 00:16:41.320 --> 00:16:44.340 Hurricane Center. And it gets... fed into those 00:16:44.340 --> 00:16:48.039 complex computer models that meteorologists use 00:16:48.039 --> 00:16:50.799 to predict where the hurricane is going to go, 00:16:50.860 --> 00:16:53.240 what we call its track, and how strong it's going 00:16:53.240 --> 00:16:57.299 to get, which is its intensity. And without this 00:16:57.299 --> 00:17:00.720 inside view of the storm, those models would 00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:03.919 have to rely on satellite images and other remote 00:17:03.919 --> 00:17:06.960 sensing data. They're useful, but they're not 00:17:06.960 --> 00:17:09.660 as precise. They might miss some crucial details 00:17:09.660 --> 00:17:12.039 about what's actually going on inside the hurricane 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:15.390 itself. So these hurricane hunter flights, they 00:17:15.390 --> 00:17:19.529 basically provide that ground truth that helps 00:17:19.529 --> 00:17:21.650 make our predictions a lot more accurate. And 00:17:21.650 --> 00:17:23.930 what would happen if we didn't have enough data 00:17:23.930 --> 00:17:26.690 from these hurricane hunter flights? It sounds 00:17:26.690 --> 00:17:29.349 like it would make all of our forecasts less 00:17:29.349 --> 00:17:32.009 reliable. It would. If we don't have that critical 00:17:32.009 --> 00:17:34.529 data, or if we don't get it in time, it means 00:17:34.529 --> 00:17:36.730 those hurricane track and intensity forecasts. 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:39.319 they're going to be less accurate. And that could 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:42.220 delay warnings for emergency managers and for 00:17:42.220 --> 00:17:45.200 people living in the path of the storm. And that 00:17:45.200 --> 00:17:47.380 could have a knock -on effect on those really 00:17:47.380 --> 00:17:49.740 important decisions about when and where to issue 00:17:49.740 --> 00:17:52.920 evacuations, how to prepare for the storm. And 00:17:52.920 --> 00:17:56.400 on top of that, there's also the worry that if 00:17:56.400 --> 00:17:58.559 NOAA's research labs get hit with budget cuts, 00:17:59.119 --> 00:18:01.599 that could slow down improvements in hurricane 00:18:01.599 --> 00:18:04.119 modeling. And those improvements are They're 00:18:04.119 --> 00:18:06.359 essential for making our forecasts even better 00:18:06.359 --> 00:18:09.480 in the future. The whole emergency management 00:18:09.480 --> 00:18:12.359 community relies on that timely and accurate 00:18:12.359 --> 00:18:14.279 information from those hurricane hunter flights 00:18:14.279 --> 00:18:17.740 to adjust their forecasts, to fine tune evacuation 00:18:17.740 --> 00:18:20.160 plans, to really figure out where the storm is 00:18:20.160 --> 00:18:22.920 most likely to make landfall. So any disruption 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:25.759 to that data flow could have serious consequences. 00:18:26.029 --> 00:18:28.089 It really highlights how all of these different 00:18:28.089 --> 00:18:30.309 things are connected, you know? They are. A cut 00:18:30.309 --> 00:18:32.789 in staffing at an agency like NOAA, it can really 00:18:32.789 --> 00:18:35.029 have an impact on the accuracy of our forecasts 00:18:35.029 --> 00:18:37.930 and, you know, ultimately on public safety. Absolutely. 00:18:38.329 --> 00:18:40.289 So let's talk about something called accumulated 00:18:40.289 --> 00:18:44.269 cyclone energy, or ACE. OK. This is a way of 00:18:44.269 --> 00:18:47.009 measuring how much activity there is during a 00:18:47.009 --> 00:18:50.640 hurricane season. Right. The ACE index was developed 00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:53.240 to give us a better way to track the overall 00:18:53.240 --> 00:18:56.359 power of all the named storms throughout a whole 00:18:56.359 --> 00:18:58.579 hurricane season. So it doesn't just count how 00:18:58.579 --> 00:19:00.680 many storms there are. It takes into account 00:19:00.680 --> 00:19:03.160 how long each storm lasts and how strong its 00:19:03.160 --> 00:19:05.819 winds are over its entire lifetime. So basically, 00:19:06.140 --> 00:19:08.180 a hurricane that hangs around for a long time 00:19:08.180 --> 00:19:10.799 and has really strong winds, that's going to 00:19:10.799 --> 00:19:13.980 contribute a lot more to the season's ACE value 00:19:13.980 --> 00:19:17.000 than a short -lived, weaker tropical storm. So 00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:19.279 it's not just counting how many storms pop up. 00:19:19.279 --> 00:19:21.980 It really looks at how intense they are, how 00:19:21.980 --> 00:19:24.779 long they last. Right. So what would you consider 00:19:24.779 --> 00:19:28.000 an average ACE value for for a typical hurricane 00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:30.460 season? Well, the average ACE value for an Atlantic 00:19:30.460 --> 00:19:34.119 hurricane season is about 122 .5, but of course 00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:36.279 it can vary a lot from year to year. Like in 00:19:36.279 --> 00:19:38.799 2005, which was a really active year with some 00:19:38.799 --> 00:19:42.140 incredibly strong storms, the ACE value was over 00:19:42.140 --> 00:19:46.250 245. That's more than double the average. And 00:19:46.250 --> 00:19:48.750 to give you an example of how much one really 00:19:48.750 --> 00:19:50.930 strong storm can affect the ACE Hurricane Ivan 00:19:50.930 --> 00:19:55.430 back in 2004, that holds the record for the most 00:19:55.430 --> 00:19:58.369 ACE points ever accumulated by a single cyclone 00:19:58.369 --> 00:20:01.119 in the Atlantic. So you can see how one really 00:20:01.119 --> 00:20:04.119 powerful, long -lasting hurricane can really 00:20:04.119 --> 00:20:06.880 skew the seasonal total. It's interesting how 00:20:06.880 --> 00:20:09.579 just one really strong storm can change the overall 00:20:09.579 --> 00:20:12.220 ACE for the whole season. Right. But you mentioned 00:20:12.220 --> 00:20:14.640 that the ACE doesn't account for all the potential 00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:16.720 impacts of a hurricane, you know, like flooding. 00:20:16.799 --> 00:20:19.150 Can you explain that a little bit? Yeah, that's 00:20:19.150 --> 00:20:21.849 a really important point. So while ACE is great 00:20:21.849 --> 00:20:24.670 for measuring a storm's intensity and duration, 00:20:24.670 --> 00:20:26.950 you know, based on its wind speeds, it doesn't 00:20:26.950 --> 00:20:29.190 measure other things like how much rain the storm 00:20:29.190 --> 00:20:31.230 produces and the flooding that comes with that 00:20:31.230 --> 00:20:33.769 or whether it spawns tornadoes and Hurricane 00:20:33.769 --> 00:20:36.630 Helene in 2024. That's a perfect example. It 00:20:36.630 --> 00:20:39.950 had a pretty low ACE value compared to some other 00:20:39.950 --> 00:20:42.789 major hurricanes, but it caused a lot of flooding, 00:20:43.069 --> 00:20:44.990 widespread flooding, which made it one of the 00:20:44.990 --> 00:20:49.230 costliest U .S. hurricanes on record. So even 00:20:49.230 --> 00:20:52.069 if a hurricane season has a lower ACE, it doesn't 00:20:52.069 --> 00:20:54.690 mean there won't be individual storms that are 00:20:54.690 --> 00:20:57.289 really destructive because of those other factors 00:20:57.289 --> 00:21:00.180 that ACE doesn't measure. That's really important 00:21:00.180 --> 00:21:02.960 for people to remember. Just because a hurricane 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:04.839 season has a lower ACE doesn't mean it's going 00:21:04.839 --> 00:21:08.700 to be less impactful if you happen to be in the 00:21:08.700 --> 00:21:10.579 path of one of those really damaging storms. 00:21:11.059 --> 00:21:14.400 Exactly. So how do experts view the ACE index 00:21:14.400 --> 00:21:18.160 as a way of measuring hurricane season activity? 00:21:18.900 --> 00:21:20.859 What are its strengths and weaknesses? Well, 00:21:21.160 --> 00:21:23.740 most experts think that ACE is a more accurate 00:21:23.740 --> 00:21:26.859 and useful way. to measure hurricane season activity 00:21:26.859 --> 00:21:29.519 than just counting how many named storms there 00:21:29.519 --> 00:21:32.220 are. OK. And this is especially true now because 00:21:32.220 --> 00:21:35.220 we're better at detecting and monitoring tropical 00:21:35.220 --> 00:21:38.779 cyclones with all the satellite technology, the 00:21:38.779 --> 00:21:40.720 improved forecast models, all those observation 00:21:40.720 --> 00:21:43.920 tools. So because of that, we're naming more 00:21:43.920 --> 00:21:46.039 storms each year, including some that are pretty 00:21:46.039 --> 00:21:48.339 weak and don't last very long. But just because 00:21:48.339 --> 00:21:50.980 there are more named storms, it doesn't mean 00:21:50.980 --> 00:21:53.099 the season is more intense or more impactful. 00:21:53.359 --> 00:21:56.720 The ACE index helps us see the bigger picture 00:21:56.720 --> 00:21:58.740 by looking at the strength and duration of those 00:21:58.740 --> 00:22:02.240 storms. So for example, in 2023, the Atlantic 00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:05.029 hurricane season had 20 named storms. which is 00:22:05.029 --> 00:22:07.869 a lot, but the overall ACE was actually close 00:22:07.869 --> 00:22:10.430 to the average. OK. So that tells us that many 00:22:10.430 --> 00:22:12.390 of those storms were pretty weak and short lived. 00:22:12.430 --> 00:22:14.730 And in fact, that season was generally considered 00:22:14.730 --> 00:22:17.269 to be less impactful than some others with fewer 00:22:17.269 --> 00:22:19.910 but stronger storms. So ACE really gives us a 00:22:19.910 --> 00:22:22.009 more complete picture of the total energy of 00:22:22.009 --> 00:22:24.309 a hurricane season. It does. It goes beyond just 00:22:24.309 --> 00:22:26.650 counting how many storms there are. And, you 00:22:26.650 --> 00:22:28.450 know, as we look ahead, we're already starting 00:22:28.450 --> 00:22:32.009 to think about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, 00:22:32.230 --> 00:22:35.400 which begins on June 1st. And we actually already 00:22:35.400 --> 00:22:37.359 have the list of names that will be given to 00:22:37.359 --> 00:22:40.180 any storms that form. Right. The World Meteorological 00:22:40.180 --> 00:22:42.640 Organization, they released the list of names 00:22:42.640 --> 00:22:45.680 well before the season starts. And they use those 00:22:45.680 --> 00:22:48.200 names for any tropical storms that reach wind 00:22:48.200 --> 00:22:51.319 speeds of at least 39 miles per hour. And for 00:22:51.319 --> 00:22:55.680 2025, the list starts with Adrea and goes alphabetically 00:22:55.680 --> 00:22:58.460 through Wendy. And if a storm gets stronger and 00:22:58.460 --> 00:23:00.839 reaches wind speeds of 74 miles per hour, then 00:23:00.839 --> 00:23:03.180 it becomes a hurricane. But it keeps the same 00:23:03.180 --> 00:23:05.720 name it had as a tropical storm. And, you know, 00:23:05.759 --> 00:23:07.880 there are no names on the list that start with 00:23:07.880 --> 00:23:10.940 Q, U, X, Y, or Z. Right. Mostly because there 00:23:10.940 --> 00:23:12.740 just aren't that many common names that start 00:23:12.740 --> 00:23:14.880 with those letters. Right. It's a familiar process 00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:17.380 for anyone who follows hurricane season. Yeah. 00:23:17.460 --> 00:23:19.599 And of course, if a hurricane causes a lot of 00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:22.579 damage or a lot of loss of life, its name can 00:23:22.579 --> 00:23:25.390 be retired. Right. And replaced with... a different 00:23:25.390 --> 00:23:27.809 name in the future so that we don't have to be 00:23:27.809 --> 00:23:32.049 reminded of those tragic events. Exactly. So 00:23:32.049 --> 00:23:34.869 with the list of names out there for 2025, can 00:23:34.869 --> 00:23:38.630 we say anything about how severe or how active 00:23:38.630 --> 00:23:41.740 the upcoming hurricane season might be? Honestly, 00:23:41.940 --> 00:23:45.319 it's still way too early to say for sure. You 00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:47.380 know, some forecasting organizations will start 00:23:47.380 --> 00:23:49.759 to make predictions in the next few months, but 00:23:49.759 --> 00:23:52.779 the truth is, the number and intensity of storms 00:23:52.779 --> 00:23:56.019 that form, it depends on so many different factors, 00:23:56.039 --> 00:23:58.099 you know, in the atmosphere and the ocean. And 00:23:58.099 --> 00:24:00.519 it's just too early to predict those things with 00:24:00.519 --> 00:24:03.200 any certainty. So we have the names ready, but 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:04.640 we'll just have to wait and see what Mother Nature 00:24:04.640 --> 00:24:06.920 has in store for us. Well, it looks like we've 00:24:06.920 --> 00:24:08.779 reached the end of our meteorological journey 00:24:08.779 --> 00:24:11.099 for today. We've covered a lot. of ground on 00:24:11.099 --> 00:24:13.059 the Meteorology Matters podcast. We've talked 00:24:13.059 --> 00:24:14.960 about the financial toll of these hurricanes. 00:24:15.140 --> 00:24:17.759 We talked about those potential changes to homeowner 00:24:17.759 --> 00:24:21.180 liability in Florida. The really crucial work 00:24:21.180 --> 00:24:24.059 of the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration, 00:24:24.579 --> 00:24:27.299 how we measure hurricane season activity using 00:24:27.299 --> 00:24:30.079 that accumulated cyclone energy index. And we 00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:32.440 even got a sneak peek at the storm names for 00:24:32.440 --> 00:24:35.940 the upcoming 2025 season. it's clear that all 00:24:35.940 --> 00:24:38.039 of these things are connected and understanding 00:24:38.039 --> 00:24:40.299 those connections is really important for all 00:24:40.299 --> 00:24:43.240 of us. Absolutely. As we prepare for and respond 00:24:43.240 --> 00:24:46.640 to severe weather, the science is always evolving, 00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:49.119 the systems we have in place are always improving, 00:24:49.539 --> 00:24:51.359 and staying informed about those changes can 00:24:51.359 --> 00:24:53.160 really make a difference. Yeah, we encourage 00:24:53.160 --> 00:24:56.380 you to keep learning about these topics, to think 00:24:56.380 --> 00:24:59.460 about how they might affect you, your community. 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:02.559 What does a change like the Fallen Tree Act mean 00:25:02.559 --> 00:25:05.809 for for how we interact with our neighbors for 00:25:05.809 --> 00:25:09.509 insurance claims. How could changes at NOAA, 00:25:09.710 --> 00:25:12.109 at the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration 00:25:12.109 --> 00:25:14.890 affect how quickly and how accurately we get 00:25:14.890 --> 00:25:18.069 those severe weather warnings? These are all 00:25:18.069 --> 00:25:21.309 things to think about. And thanks so much for 00:25:21.309 --> 00:25:24.009 joining us today. And for more information and 00:25:24.009 --> 00:25:26.069 updates, remember to follow meteorologist Rob 00:25:26.069 --> 00:25:29.009 Jones. He's on Instagram, Meteorologist, on TikTok 00:25:29.009 --> 00:25:31.990 TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube you can follow 00:25:31.990 --> 00:25:34.450 Rob Jones Hurricane. And that's also where you'll 00:25:34.450 --> 00:25:36.990 find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. 00:25:37.690 --> 00:25:40.470 And one last thought for you to consider. We're 00:25:40.470 --> 00:25:42.890 seeing more and more extreme weather events these 00:25:42.890 --> 00:25:44.829 days. Right. And they're getting more intense. 00:25:45.349 --> 00:25:47.309 So how do you think our communities can best 00:25:47.309 --> 00:25:51.109 use the amazing forecasting technology we have 00:25:51.109 --> 00:25:53.710 and all the data that NOAA provides to plan for 00:25:53.710 --> 00:25:55.829 the future and build more resilient infrastructure? 00:25:56.589 --> 00:25:58.869 And ultimately, how do we create a culture of 00:25:58.869 --> 00:26:01.970 preparedness at the local level? These are some 00:26:01.970 --> 00:26:03.970 really important questions for all of us to ponder 00:26:03.970 --> 00:26:06.930 as we face the challenges of a changing climate. 00:26:07.069 --> 00:26:08.269 We'll see you next time. See you then.