Hey everyone, welcome back.
We know hurricane season prep can feel like
a lot to take in sometimes, right?
But that's why we're here for you.
Exactly.
In this deep dive, we're gonna focus on
those key changes coming from the National Hurricane Center
for this 2025 season.
We've got all the official docs right here in front of us.
Stayed from the source.
And we're gonna pull out all that need to know info
just for you.
That's right, we're gonna make those updates crystal clear.
Okay, so first up, brand new experimental cone graphic.
Oh yeah.
You know that cone that shows us
the potential hurricane path?
We'll get this.
It's not just for the coast anymore.
Yeah, they're testing showing potential hurricane
and tropical storm watches in warnings inland.
Wow.
The idea is to really visualize the risk for everyone,
not just folks on the coast.
And you know, it's actually based on
some really interesting social science research
about how people understand risk.
Makes a lot of sense, especially since hurricanes
can have impacts so far inland.
I have to admit though, I'm a little skeptical
about how easy it'll be to read all that extra info
on the cone.
I guess we'll have to see how it plays out,
you know, when it's actually in use.
Yeah, exactly.
And then that's why they're calling it experimental.
And they may even run into some data delays
getting it up and running.
So you might not even see it right away.
I see.
But keep an eye out for it on hurricanes.gov.
Okay.
And definitely send the NHC some feedback
once you've seen it.
Okay, great.
I really wanna know what you think.
Good to know.
All right, moving on to something a little more,
well, universally relatable rip currents.
Oh yeah, who doesn't love a good beach day, right?
Exactly.
But seriously, rip currents are dangerous.
No joke.
And a lot of people don't realize how dangerous
they can be even if a hurricane is far away.
You know, those swells can travel for miles.
That's right.
So to help us all stay safe out there,
the NHC is rolling out a new national rip current
risk map specifically for when there are active hurricanes.
And what's great about this is it pulls info
from local weather offices all up and down the east coast,
the Gulf Coast, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands,
even Southern California.
Oh wow.
So wherever you are, it's gonna be relevant.
So just so we're clear though,
this map is showing us risk levels, right?
Not wave height.
If you're looking for the wave height details,
best bet is to check out the surf zone forecasts
on weather.gov.
Good point.
That's a great website.
It is a treasure trove of information.
Yeah.
Okay, let's shift gears to something
maybe a little bit more potentially tricky.
Okay.
Potential tropical cyclones.
Ah, yes.
It's a mouthful, so we're just gonna call them PTCs for short.
Right.
So essentially a PTC, it's a system
that's not quite a hurricane yet,
but it's showing those signs that it could become one.
And importantly, it's already posing a threat to land.
Right.
And here's where it gets interesting.
Starting this season, the NHC can issue advisories
on these PTCs up to 72 hours before we might see
storm surge or tropical storm force winds.
That's three whole days,
even if watches and warnings aren't in effect yet.
That's a big change.
Yeah.
The idea is to give people as much lead time as possible
to prepare, especially if there's a lot of confidence
that PTC is gonna develop into something serious.
So if a PTC is identified,
what kind of info should I be looking for
in those early advisories?
That's a great question.
Definitely the potential track,
the estimated wind speeds,
and any mention of storm surge risk.
Those early advisories are all about giving you the heads up
so you can start thinking about,
do I need to get those supplies,
secure my property, think about my evacuation routes.
I see.
So it's basically the NHC saying,
hey, we see something brewing out there,
even though it's not a hurricane yet.
It could be a problem,
so let's start talking about it now.
They're not waiting for it to be a named storm
to give you that information.
That's a big shift toward giving us more information
further in advance.
And speaking of getting more information,
let's talk about those forecast advisories.
Or as the NHC calls them, the TCMs.
You got it.
Now the TCM can get a little technical,
but basically it's where they give us
the wind radii forecasts,
which tells us how far out those hurricane force winds
extend from the center of the storm.
Exactly.
Good news is they're extending those forecasts
out to three days now instead of just two.
That's a big deal.
Which is a big deal when you're trying
to understand the potential impact.
That extra day gives us a lot more time
to make those informed decisions.
Right, and they've even made another change.
It's a small change,
but it kind of aligns with the global standards.
They're switching from feet to mirrors for max sea height.
Okay.
Seems minor, but it helps keep things
consistent internationally.
Makes sense.
I'm always a fan of making information
easier to understand and share.
Absolutely.
Speaking of information,
let's not forget our friends in Hawaii.
Oh, that's right.
Starting in 2025, Hawaii's getting a brand new tool,
probabilistic storm surge guidance.
We called it P-surge for short.
Okay.
And this is gonna be a game changer
for understanding storm surge risks.
Now what's really cool about P-surge I hear
is it uses hundreds of simulations
to give us a probability based view
of water level heights during a hurricane.
It even considers things like tide and wave setup.
All those factors.
So instead of just saying the storm surge
will be this high, P-surge is basically saying
there's a certain chance that it'll be this high
or this high or even this high.
That's right, a much more nuanced approach.
Nice.
Acknowledging that uncertainty.
That could be really helpful for making decisions.
It's not just one number.
Right, it's a range.
It's a range of possibilities.
And it helps you understand the likelihood.
Very cool.
So the data will be available this season,
but unfortunately the GIS maps and Keek surge graphics,
those aren't gonna be ready until 2026.
Oh, that's a bummer.
But at least we've got the data.
At least we've got the data, that's right.
Okay, we've covered a lot of ground here
from new ways of visualizing hurricane tracks
to understanding rip current risks
and getting a heads up on potential tropical cyclones.
The NHC is really stepping up its game
for this 2025 season.
It's all about empowering people.
It really is.
But before we jump into even more updates,
let's take a quick pause.
We'll be right back with more need to know info.
Don't go anywhere.
We're just getting warmed up.
Yeah.
Okay, so before the break,
we were really diving deep into some of the biggest changes
coming from the NHC this year.
You know, all kinds of new tools
and ways to help us stay informed.
Absolutely.
And you know what they say, knowledge is power,
especially when it comes to hurricanes.
So let's keep this momentum going
with another update to that all important track forecast cone.
Yes, the cone.
The visual representation of a hurricane's potential path.
And a source of, I think a lot of anxiety
for folks who might be in its path.
Absolutely.
So, but remember how we were talking about
how the forecasts are getting more accurate?
Right, and more accurate forecast means a smaller cone.
Okay.
So for the 2025 season,
that cone is actually shrinking by about three to 5%
in the Atlantic and then five to 10%
in the Eastern North Pacific.
Okay, wait, hold on a second.
A smaller cone.
Does that mean we should be less worried
about hurricanes now?
That seems counterintuitive.
I know, right.
But think about it this way.
A smaller cone means that they're more confident
about where the storm is going.
It allows for more targeted preparedness
and maybe even fewer evacuations.
So instead of having like this huge swath of coastline
in panic mode, they can really pinpoint the areas
that are most likely to be impacted.
Exactly.
That's actually a really big deal
when you think about all the disruption
and the stress that evacuations can cause.
It's all about making those decisions
based on the best possible information.
But of course, it's important to remember
that cone still represents a two-thirds probability.
Right.
There's always a chance the storm
could track outside of that cone.
Right, it's not a foolproof guarantee,
but it's definitely a more precise tool for understanding
where the storm might go and taking those precautions.
Okay, so we talked about this new experimental cone graphic
with all the new bells and whistles,
the new rip current risk map,
getting a head start on those potential tropical cyclones.
It's a lot to take in.
It is, I feel like maybe it's time for a little recap.
Okay, let's do.
Just to make sure we're all on the same page.
All right, so we started with that new cone graphic.
It shows potential inland watches and warnings,
great way to visualize the risk,
even if you're not right on the coast.
Exactly.
And then we can't forget about that new
national rip current risk map.
Wow.
It pulls in all that data from those local weather offices
to give us super relevant risk assessments.
So whether you're on the East Coast, Gulf Coast,
even enjoying that California sunshine,
it's a great tool for anyone planning a beach day
during hurricane season.
For sure.
Then of course we have those potentially tricky PTCs
or potential tropical cyclones,
where the NHC is now giving us a heads up
up to 72 hours before potential impacts.
That's a big one.
Talk about giving us time to prepare,
and they're also giving us more time
to understand the reach of a hurricane's winds.
Yes.
They've extended those wind radii forecasts
out to three whole days,
so we can see just how far those strong winds might extend.
Exactly.
Oh, and for our friends in Hawaii,
there's that new probabilistic storm surge guidance,
P surge rolling out this year,
which gives us that much more nuanced view
of potential water levels during a hurricane,
all those hundreds of simulations.
That's a lot of data.
And last but not least,
that track forecast cone is shrinking for 2025,
thanks to those increasingly accurate hurricane forecasts.
It's great news.
Okay, so I think we've officially covered
all the major updates for this season.
I think so.
But I have to say, all this talk about hurricane prep
is making me wonder about my own plan.
I think it's time for a refresh.
Yeah, you and me both.
It's easy to get caught up in all the new tools
and the new forecast,
but the most important thing is actually taking action.
What are we doing to prepare?
That's the million dollar question, isn't it?
It's one thing to know about these updates,
but it's another to actually put them into practice.
Right, so let's talk about,
how can this information actually help us get ready
for hurricane season?
Because we've thrown a lot at you,
but it doesn't matter unless we take those steps
to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
Okay, so let's break it down.
What are some concrete actions we can take right now
to make sure we are ready
for whatever this season throws at us?
Well, for starters, we should all have a hurricane kit.
Oh yeah.
We should all have a rock and ready to go.
The essentials?
You know, water, non-perishable food batteries,
first aid kit, all that good stuff.
Okay, that's a good one.
I'll admit my hurricane kit could use a little attention.
I think I've got some batteries in there from 2023.
Well, there you go.
And speaking of things that need attention,
have you looked at your evacuation plan lately?
You.
Do you know your zone?
Where would you go if you needed to evacuate?
Who would you contact?
You know, I haven't looked at my evacuation plan in a while.
I kind of just tossed it in a drawer and hoped for the best.
But you're right, it's definitely something
I should probably revisit.
It's one of those things it's so easy to put off.
Yeah.
But when a hurricane's bearing down,
you're gonna be glad you did it.
That's right.
And while we're talking about preparedness,
let's talk generators.
Uh-oh.
Do you have one?
You know how to use it safely?
Okay, now you're hitting a nerve.
I actually bought a generator last year
after that power outage we had
during Hurricane Epsilon.
But I'll admit, I haven't even taken it out of the box yet.
I'm a little intimidated by it.
I hear you.
Generators can be intimidating.
Yeah.
But trust me, it is worth learning
how to use it properly.
It can be a lifesaver.
Yeah.
Especially if you have medical equipment
or rely on electricity for other things.
Okay, you convinced me I'm putting,
learn how to use my generator at the top of my to-do list.
Excellent.
And don't forget, if you have questions,
the NAC is a great resource.
They've got tons of information on their website.
Checklists, safety tips, even videos on how to prepare.
And they're all over social media too.
You know, they've got dedicated accounts
for different regions, for topics like storm surge,
even general hurricane center news.
That's right.
It's easier than ever to stay informed.
Which is great.
But all this talk about preparedness,
it's making me realize that it's not just
about having the plan right.
Right.
It's also about having the right mindset.
Oh, tell me about it.
It's easy to get overwhelmed during hurricane season.
It is.
Especially with so much information
coming from all directions.
Exactly.
So how do we stay calm and focused
amidst all that chaos?
What are some strategies for managing
that hurricane season stress?
That's a great question.
And one that I think we should dive into
after a quick break.
Okay.
We'll be right back with some tips and tricks
for staying grounded and resilient
during hurricane season.
Okay, so we're back.
And you know, we've covered a lot of ground
talking about the technical updates,
the things you need to have in place.
But it really is important to remember
that hurricane season, it's not just about
having the plan, it's about having the right mindset.
Oh, absolutely.
To navigate all the uncertainty
and the stress that comes along with it, right?
Yith nail on the head.
It's so easy to get caught up in the what ifs.
The worst case scenarios.
Right.
So yeah, let's talk about some practical ways
to kind of manage that hurricane season anxiety.
Okay, so first things first.
How do we even recognize when that stress
is starting to creep in?
What are some of those red flags?
Well, you know, for me, I think it's the sleep.
If I'm finding it hard to, you know, fall asleep
or I wake up with that knot in my stomach,
that's a pretty good sign that, you know,
hurricane season stress is getting to me.
Yeah, I totally get that.
You know, I tend to go into like hyper preparedness mode.
Like suddenly I need to reorganize
every single door in my house.
Even if there's not a storm even on the horizon yet.
That's a common reaction.
It's, you know, we're trying to gain control
when we feel out of control.
Right.
So.
Okay, so besides losing sleep and obsessively organizing,
what are some other signs that we might need
to take a step back and really focus
on that mental well-dealing?
Yeah, well, you know, pay attention to your mood.
Are you more irritable, short-tempered
on having trouble concentrating or making decisions?
Those are all, you know, kind of signs
that the stress might be getting to you.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Okay, so let's say, you know, we're starting to notice
some of those red flags.
What are some, you know, practical strategies
for managing that hurricane stress?
Because, you know, telling myself to just calm down,
it just doesn't really work, does it?
No, it doesn't.
One thing that I find really helps
is focusing on what I can control.
Okay.
You know, I can make sure my hurricane kit is stocked.
I can review my evacuation plan.
I can, you know, secure my property.
Right.
And those actions helps me feel more prepared
and less anxious.
That's a good point.
Focusing on action rather than, you know, the worry.
I also find that staying informed
but not overly informed is really helpful.
For sure.
You know, I'll check the NHC updates.
Right.
But I'm not gonna like obsess over every single news report
or social media post about it.
Right, absolutely.
Find that balance.
Yeah.
You know, staying informed but not letting it consume you.
Right.
And, you know, don't forget the power of connection.
Oh yeah.
Talk to your friends, your family, your neighbors.
Share your concerns.
Offer support.
You're not alone in this.
It's so true.
Sometimes just talking things out
can make a world of difference.
Absolutely.
You know, and it helps to know that other people
are feeling those same anxieties.
And you know, it's a good reminder
that we're all in this together.
Exactly.
We're a community and we can support each other through this.
And, you know, if you're really struggling,
don't hesitate to reach out to a professional.
There's no shame in asking for help.
That's so important to remember.
Okay, so we've talked about the importance of, you know,
recognizing those stress signals,
taking action to prepare, staying informed
but not overwhelmed and connecting with others.
Any other tips for navigating, you know,
the mental side of hurricane season?
Yeah, you know, one thing that I think often gets overlooked
is self-care.
Oh yeah.
It's so easy to let those healthy habits slide
when you're feeling stressed.
But it's even more important during hurricane season
to take care of yourself.
So, you know, make sure you're eating healthy,
you're getting enough sleep,
and you're finding ways to de-stress.
So instead of, you know, reaching for that bag of chips
and binge watching those disaster movies.
Exactly.
Maybe opt for, you know, a walk out in nature
or a nice relaxing yoga class.
Whatever works for you.
Yeah.
You know, it might be reading a book,
listening to music, spending time with loved ones,
or just taking a few deep breaths,
just something to help you feel grounded.
Yeah.
And it's all great tips.
It's easy to get caught up in the frenzy of it all
and forget about ourselves.
It is.
You're right, self-care is not a luxury.
It's a necessity during those times.
Absolutely.
Well, I think we've officially covered all the bases.
We've talked about all the new updates from the NHC.
You know, those concrete steps we can take to prepare
and how to manage that inevitable hurricane season stress.
I don't know about you, but I'm feeling a lot more prepared
and a lot less anxious.
Me too.
It's amazing what a little knowledge can do.
It really is.
So as we head into this hurricane season,
let's all remember to stay informed,
stay prepared, and most importantly, stay calm.
We got this.
We do.
And remember, we're all in this together.
Let's support each other, share our knowledge,
and navigate this season with resilience
and a sense of community.
Beautifully said.
Until next time, stay safe, everyone, and stay informed.