Hey everybody and welcome back to Meteorology Matters.
Yes, welcome back.
Our focus today is the 2025 hurricane season.
And even though that feels like a long way off.
It does.
It's really never too early to start thinking
about what we might be in for.
Exactly, we wanna be prepared.
Yes.
So to help us break it all down,
we have an expert in all things hurricanes joining us.
It's great to be here.
And we're really glad to have you.
Thanks.
And we'll be drawing on some insights
from hurricane specialist Brian Norcross.
That's right.
To help us make sense of everything.
Absolutely.
But before we get into all that.
Yes.
A quick reminder to follow Meteorologist Rob Jones
for some great weather insights.
Oh yeah, he's great.
You can find him on Instagram at meteorologist
on TikTok at TV meteorologist.
I follow him on both.
Oh nice.
And on YouTube you could just search Rob Jones' hurricane.
Easy to find.
And you can find the Meteorology Matters playlist
on his YouTube channel as well.
Awesome.
All right.
Okay, so.
Let's set the stage here.
Okay.
We are coming off a really active 2024 hurricane season.
We are.
A lot more active than most folks were anticipating.
Yeah.
A lot of surprises last year.
Yeah.
Barrel Francine, Helene Milton-Rafael.
Oh yeah.
Those names probably ring a bell
for those of you who follow hurricane seasons closely.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
They all formed in the Gulf and Caribbean regions.
They did.
Right.
Yes.
So should we be thinking about this
as like a potential pattern of more frequent
and intense hurricanes?
That's a question a lot of people are asking.
Yeah.
One of the things that Brian Newell-Cross has been focusing
on is the unusually warm Caribbean sea temperatures.
Oh, I see where this is going.
Yeah.
And warm water is basically fuel for hurricanes.
Makes sense.
So that has him particularly concerned.
Yeah.
I can see why warmer water is stronger scorns.
Exactly.
And not only that, but warm water can lead
to something called rapid intensification.
Okay.
So think of it like a car suddenly hitting the gas pedal.
Okay.
You know, a tropical storm can turn
into a major hurricane incredibly fast,
making it that much harder to predict and prepare for.
Right.
And we actually saw this happen
with Hurricane Barrel last year.
Oh, wow.
That is scary.
It is.
And if we look back, Hurricane Dorian in 2019.
Yes.
Was another storm that really left its mark.
Absolutely.
The devastation in the Bahamas,
particularly the Apoco Islands.
Right.
Is something a lot of people won't soon forget.
Yeah.
Right.
And they actually retired the name Dorian.
Oh, wow.
And they're placing it with Dexter.
Interesting.
For the 2025 season.
Okay.
So yeah, Dorian was a sobering reminder
that even if a season is forecasted
to be relatively quiet,
a single powerful storm can change everything.
Yeah, that's a good point.
It's a cautionary tale.
It is.
Yeah.
Okay, so we've talked about the potential
for like a more active season.
Right.
But we've also got this thing called
the spring predictability barrier.
Yes.
To consider.
Can you explain what that means?
Sure.
Especially for folks who might not be familiar
with the term.
Yeah, so during springtime,
it's really challenging to predict
whether we'll have an El Niño or a La Niña event.
Right.
Which are these big climate patterns
that can really influence hurricane season.
They can influence like everything it seems like.
They can have a global impact.
Right.
I always forget what ENSO stands for.
Oh yeah.
What is it again?
ENSO stands for El Niña Southern Oscillation.
Okay.
And right now we're expecting neutral ENSO conditions.
Okay, so no El Niño or La Niña
to like really strongly influence things.
Exactly.
So essentially during the spring,
the trade winds.
Okay.
Which are winds that blow near the equator.
They're weaker and less consistent.
Got it.
And that makes it tougher to predict
those El Niña and La Niña patterns.
Okay, so no strong El Niña or La Niña
to like give us clues.
Right.
Yeah, that makes it even harder
to get a clear picture of what 2025 might hold.
It does.
Okay.
But even with neutral ENSO conditions,
other factors can come into play.
Like what?
Well, we might see dips in the jet stream.
Okay.
Or cold fronts pushing down from the north.
Interesting.
These can all influence how storms develop
and where they travel.
So even though it's still early,
what are some of the things that you're watching closely
as we head towards hurricane season?
Hmm, that's a good question.
What have you concerned
or maybe even a little bit optimistic?
Well, one thing that has me concerned,
and we've already touched on this,
is the warmth of the Caribbean.
It's not just a little bit warmer than usual,
it's significantly warmer.
Okay.
And that's a recipe for powerful storms.
Yeah, you mentioned Brian Norcross
is concerned about this too.
He is.
Okay.
It makes predicting hurricane intensity really tough.
Yeah.
A storm could form and look fairly ordinary,
but then intensify very quickly
once it hits that warm water in the Caribbean.
Right.
That's what rapid intensification is all about.
Okay, so that's definitely something to keep in mind
as we get closer to June 1st.
Yes.
So what about the other side of the coin?
Okay.
Are there any factors that could make
this hurricane season less active?
Hmm, it's tough to say for sure this early in the game.
Right.
That spring predictability barrier really limits
what we can competently predict right now.
That makes sense.
Yeah.
So we've talked about the potential
for an active season through the warm waters.
Right.
But with neutral ENSO conditions,
it's still a bit of a mystery.
It is a bit of a mystery.
And that's why it's so important to stay informed.
Absolutely.
And pay attention to those forecasts.
For sure.
As we get closer to hurricane season.
Yes.
And speaking of advancements in hurricane forecasting.
Yes.
We've got new tools like the National Hurricane Center's
extended forecasts.
Uh-huh.
And this thing called AAFS, right?
Yes, ASA.
Let's dig into those a bit more after a quick break.
Sounds good.
We'll be right back with more meteorology matters.
All right.
Welcome back to meteorology matters.
All right.
So before the break, we were talking about
the National Hurricane Center's extended forecast.
We were.
And I'm particularly interested in this new
potential tropical cyclone designation.
Yes.
The PTC.
Yeah, or PTC as the experts call it.
Right.
It seems like that could really change the game
when it comes to giving people more time to prepare.
Absolutely it could.
Yeah.
The PTC designation allows the National Hurricane Center
to start issuing watches and warnings
even earlier than they used to.
So even before it's technically a hurricane?
Right.
Essentially they can now issue alerts
before a system has even become a tropical storm.
So they're basically saying,
hey, this thing we're watching.
Right.
Might become a problem.
Exactly.
So you need to be ready.
Yeah, you need to start thinking about it.
Even though it hasn't technically formed into a storm yet.
Precisely the goal is to give communities
as much lead time as possible
so they can make informed decisions about their safety.
So instead of waiting until a storm has fully formed.
Right.
They're getting ahead of the curve.
Exactly.
And providing those critical early warnings.
Yes.
That's incredible.
It is.
It's like getting a notification that a package
might arrive even before it's left the warehouse.
I like that analogy.
Yeah.
It's all about giving people the information they need
to make the best possible choices
when it comes to their safety.
Absolutely.
All right.
So now let's talk about another advancement
in hurricane forecasting that's been generating a lot of buzz.
Okay.
The hurricane analysis and forecast system
or HF as the experts call it.
Right.
Can you tell us a bit more about that?
Absolutely.
HF is a next generation hurricane modeling system
operated by NOAA.
Okay.
It became operational in 2023
and received a major upgrade last year.
So still pretty new.
It is relatively new.
Okay.
What sets HF apart is its use of storm following nests.
Storm following nests.
Yes.
What does that mean?
Well, you can think of it like zooming in on a map
to get a much more detailed view.
Okay.
So instead of just seeing the big picture.
Right.
We're getting down to the nitty gritty details
of the storm itself.
That's exactly.
It HF provides high resolution simulations
of a hurricane structure.
Wow.
We're talking about the eye wall,
the rain bands, the wind field.
So much more detail than we used to be able to get.
Much more detailed.
Okay.
And this translates into more accurate forecasts.
Yes.
Not just where the storm is going,
but also how strong it might become.
Okay.
And what kinds of impacts we can expect.
So that's huge.
It is huge.
Yeah.
For example,
AFF played a major role in accurately predicting
the rapid intensification of hurricanes,
Helene and Milton last year.
Wow.
You know, it's really interesting to see
how far hurricane forecasting has come.
It really is.
Even with all this unpredictability,
the science and technology are constantly improving.
They are.
And that's one of the key takeaways here.
You know, we're learning more all the time
and these advancements are giving us better tools
to protect ourselves.
Absolutely.
But at the end of the day,
Right.
We can't control the weather.
We can't.
What we can control is how we prepare for it.
Exactly.
But staying informed, following those forecasts
from trusted sources and having a plan in place,
we can significantly reduce the risk
to ourselves and our communities.
So for people listening right now,
especially those who live in hurricane prone areas.
Yeah.
What's the most important thing they should do
to prepare for this upcoming season?
Well, awareness is key.
Understand your risk.
Know your evacuation routes and have a plan in place
for your family, including pets.
Right.
We can't think about our furry friends.
We cannot.
And don't wait until a storm is bearing down on you
to start thinking about these things.
Right.
Start now.
Yeah.
Gather your supplies, make your plan, and stay informed.
Stay informed.
And speaking of staying informed.
Yes.
We'll be back after the break with more tips
on how to prepare for this potentially
unpredictable hurricane season.
Welcome back to Meteorology Matters.
We've spent the first two parts of this episode
talking about what we can expect from the upcoming hurricane
season.
And it's a season that could be less active overall,
but still has that potential for some surprises.
It does.
You know, those warm Caribbean waters
and the uncertainty of neutral ENSO conditions
are definitely giving us a lot to think about.
A lot to think about.
So as we head towards June 1st.
Yes.
It's so important for everyone to be prepared.
Absolutely.
No matter what mother nature throws our way.
No matter what.
So we talked about having a plan.
Right.
But let's break that down a little more.
OK.
What are some specific things that people
should include in their hurricane plan?
Well, first things first, evacuation routes.
OK.
If you live in an area pro to hurricanes,
you need to know where you're going to go.
Right.
If an evacuation order is issued.
Like, don't wait till the last minute.
No.
Don't wait.
To figure this out.
Right.
Map out your route, identify potential shelters.
OK.
And make sure everyone in your household knows the plan.
Got it.
And what about those hurricane kits?
Yes.
That everyone's always talking about?
What should people have on hand?
A well-stocked hurricane kit is essential.
OK.
Think food, water, medications, batteries.
OK.
Flashlights, a first aid kit, copies of important document.
OK.
You want to have enough supplies to last at least three days.
Got it.
Preferably longer.
OK.
That makes sense.
So it's not just about writing out the storm.
Right.
It's about being prepared for the aftermath as well.
Exactly.
Speaking of being prepared.
What about folks who have special needs or considerations
like families with young children, older adults,
people with medical conditions?
Yeah, that's a really important point.
Your hurricane plan needs to be tailored
to your individual circumstances.
OK.
So if you have young children, make sure you have diapers
formula other essentials.
OK.
For older adults or those with medical conditions,
ensure you have enough medication
and any necessary medical equipment.
Right.
It's all about thinking ahead and anticipating
those specific needs.
OK.
So we've covered the plan, the kit.
Right.
How about staying informed during hurricane season?
Yes.
Where should people go for the latest forecasts and warnings?
Well, of course we want folks to keep listening
to Meteorology Matters.
Of course.
But your go-to source should always
be the National Hurricane Center.
OK.
They have a website of a mobile app
and are very active on social media.
Awesome.
And let's not forget about our friend
meteorologist Rob Jones.
Yes, Rob.
He's got some great content on Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube.
He does.
You can find his Meteorology Matters playlist
on his YouTube channel too.
Absolutely.
Rob's a great resource for staying up to date
on all things weather related.
OK.
So we've talked about the practical aspects
of hurricane preparedness.
Right.
But I think it's also important to touch on the mental
and emotional side of things.
Yes.
Hurricanes can be really stressful.
They can.
And scary events.
Absolutely.
So do you have any advice on how people can manage that anxiety?
Yeah.
It's important to acknowledge your feelings.
OK.
It's perfectly normal to feel anxious or scarce
when facing a potential hurricane threat.
I can imagine.
Talk to someone you trust about how you're feeling.
OK.
Sharing your concerns can really help to lighten the burden.
That's good advice.
And I imagine having a plan in place
can also help reduce some of that anxiety.
Absolutely.
Knowing that you've taken steps to prepare can be empowering.
It can be.
And remember, you're not alone.
That's so important to remember.
Millions of people live in hurricane prone areas.
Yes.
And we go through this together.
We do.
There's a sense of community.
Yes.
And shared experience that can be really comforting
during these times.
And we often see the best of humanity
come out during and after hurricanes.
People helping their neighbors, sharing resources,
offering support.
I love that.
It's a reminder that even in the face of adversity,
we can come together and support each other.
That is a beautiful thought as we wrap up
this episode of Meteorology Matters.
I want to leave our listeners with this one final thought.
Knowledge is power.
Yes.
The more you know about hurricanes,
the better equipped you'll be to face them.
Absolutely.
Well said.
And remember, preparation is not a one-time event.
It's not.
It's an ongoing process.
Stay informed.
Review your plan.
Update your hurricane kit.
OK.
And most importantly, stay safe.
Thank you so much for joining us for this episode
of Meteorology Matters.
It was my pleasure.
We'll be back soon with more insightful discussions
about the weather that matters most to you.