Welcome back to Meteorology Matters, everybody.
Today we're gonna be talking about asteroid 2024, YR4.
Yeah.
I don't know about you,
but when I first saw those headlines about
a possible impact in 2032, I was like, what?
It definitely got people talking.
Yeah, my jaw kind of hit the floor.
Yeah, those early reports were saying
like a 3.1% chance of impact.
And for an asteroid that size, it's pretty unprecedented.
Yeah, 3.1%.
On the surface doesn't sound like a lot,
but then you start hearing people talks
around terms like city killer and, you know,
it's hard not to feel a little uneasy, right?
Yeah.
What exactly makes this asteroid so potentially dangerous?
It really all comes down to its size, you know, 2024, YR4,
it's estimated to be somewhere between 40 and 100 meters wide.
So to put that into perspective,
that's bigger than a football field.
So if something that big were to hit Earth,
it would, you know, cause some serious damage,
potentially localized devastation.
Okay, so not something you want in your backyard,
but the thing that's really tripping me up is
how this probability keeps shifting,
why all the uncertainty about its path?
Well, you know, predicting an asteroid's trajectory,
it's constantly evolving.
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered back in December,
we had very limited data to work with.
And as astronomers make more observations,
they can refine their calculations
and get a clear picture of where the asteroid is headed.
So the more we learned,
the more that probability can change,
even going up temporarily.
Yeah, exactly.
Think of it like this.
Imagine shining a flashlight in a dark room.
Okay.
And then, ultimately, you see a wide beam of light.
But as you adjust the focus, the beam narrows,
and for a brief moment,
the brightest part of the beam might actually seem smaller
before settling on, you know, a specific point.
Similarly, you know, as we gather more data
about 2024 YR4's path,
the range of possible trajectories narrows.
And that can lead to a temporary spike
in the calculated probability of it hitting
a particular area, even as the overall risk decreases.
Okay, that makes a lot more sense.
It's not that the asteroid is suddenly becoming more dangerous.
It's just that our understanding of its path
is becoming more precise.
Exactly.
And as we continue to monitor its trajectory,
chances are that that calculated impact zone
will shift away from Earth altogether.
We've seen this happen before
with the asteroid Apophis back in 2004.
Initially, there was concern
about a potential impact in 2029,
but further observation that completely ruled it out.
So what's the latest on 2024 YR4?
Where are scientists doing to keep tabs on this thing?
Astronomers all over the world
are using a variety of telescopes to track its movement
and get this, they're even using the James Webb Space Telescope
to get a closer look.
Wow, the James Webb that's serious firepower,
what kind of information can they get from that?
The James Webb is incredibly powerful,
especially when it comes to observing objects
in infrared light.
This will allow scientists to gather much more precise data
about 2024 YR4's size, shape and composition.
This information is crucial for refining our understanding
of its trajectory and ultimately
determining the actual risk it poses.
Sounds like they're pulling out all the stops
to get a handle on this.
So let's say, hypothetically speaking,
that the risk remains high
and this thing really is on a collision course with Earth.
What then, what can we do to prevent an impact?
That's where things get really interesting.
You know, while it might sound like something
out of a science fiction movie,
there are several potential methods
for deflecting an asteroid.
Like what?
One of the most promising is what's called
the kinetic impactor.
Kinetic impactor, okay, lay that on me.
What does that even mean?
It's actually a pretty straightforward concept.
You basically launch a spacecraft at a very high speed
and crash it into the asteroid.
The goal is to transfer enough kinetic energy
to nudge the asteroid slightly off course
enough to avoid a collision with Earth.
So like a cosmic game of billiards,
but with much higher stakes.
Exactly, of course, the challenge lies
in calculating the exact force and angle needed
to achieve the desired deflection
without accidentally causing the asteroid
to break apart in an unpredictable way.
And that's where things get incredibly complex,
requiring sophisticated physics and mathematical modeling.
Right, you don't wanna trade one big problem
for a bunch of smaller, but still dangerous ones.
Exactly, so while the concept is relatively simple,
the execution is anything but.
Well, this is already so much to absorb.
We've gone from initial panic about a potential impact
to talking about high tech space billiards.
But before we get ahead of ourselves,
let's take a moment to remind our listeners
where they can find more content from our show
and our host, the amazing Rob Jones.
Absolutely, remember folks,
you can follow meteorologist Rob Jones
on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube
to delve even deeper into the world of weather in space.
That's right, you can find Rob on Instagram
at meteorologist on TikTok at TV meteorologist.
And on YouTube, be sure to follow Rob Jones' hurricane.
That's also where you can find
the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist.
Yeah, and speaking of the podcast.
And speaking of the podcast, when we come back,
we'll explore some of those other asteroid deflection
methods, including one that sounds straight out
of a Hollywood blockbuster, stay with us.
Welcome back to Meteorology Matters, everyone.
Before the break, we were talking about, you know,
using a spacecraft as a high speed projectile
to nudge an asteroid off course as kinetic impactors.
It's just mind blowing to think that we're even capable
of considering something like that.
Yeah.
Did we ever actually test this theory out?
We did, you might remember NASA's Double Asteroid
Redirection Test, or the dark mission, back in 2022.
They intentionally crashed a spacecraft
into a small asteroid named Dimorphus.
Okay, yeah, I vaguely remember that.
Now, Dimorphus was part of like a binary asteroid system,
right, meaning it was orbiting a larger asteroid.
And the whole point of this was to see
if we could actually change its orbit.
Yeah, that's exactly right.
It was the perfect real world test case
because Dimorphus posed no threat to Earth.
The mission was purely about proving
that we could in fact alter an asteroid's trajectory
using a kinetic impactor.
And what were the results?
Did we manage to move it?
It was a huge success after the impact scientists
observed a measurable change in Dimorphus's orbit
around its larger companion.
Yeah, it was groundbreaking data that showed
we have the capability to deflect asteroids if needed.
So we've moved from theory to actually proving
it can be done, that's incredible.
But you mentioned other deflection methods as well.
Right.
What else is on the table?
Well, there's another approach that has been explored,
although it's significantly more controversial.
And it involves using a nuclear device
to either completely obliterate the asteroid
or shatter it into smaller pieces,
hopefully small enough to burn up harmlessly
in the Earth's atmosphere.
Okay, I can see why that one's a little bit more delicate.
Aside from the obvious safety and ethical considerations,
wouldn't it be incredibly difficult to control
the outcome of such a massive explosion?
Yeah, absolutely.
It's a highly complex and inherently risky proposition.
Using a nuclear device could create a shower
of smaller fragments that might still pose a threat.
So it sounds like the kinetic impactor,
while still a massive undertaking,
is the more controlled and predictable option at this point.
That's the general consensus
within the scientific community right now.
But it's an ongoing field of research,
and both approaches have their own sets of challenges
and uncertainties.
This is also fascinating.
We're talking about deflecting asteroids.
Something that just a few decades ago
would have seemed like pure science fiction.
Oh, no.
It really speaks to the incredible advancements
we've made in space exploration and technology.
But all this talk about asteroid threats
and potential deflection methods
has me wondering if we did have to face this scenario
for real, what would the human element look like?
That's a crucial aspect that often gets overlooked.
The logistical and societal challenges of dealing
with a potential asteroid impact would be immense.
Even if we had the technology to deflect it.
I can only imagine, how would we even begin
to prepare for something like that?
Evacuating entire cities or regions potentially
on short notice, that would be a monumental task.
It would require a level of global cooperation
and coordination that we've frankly never seen before.
We need clear communication channels,
comprehensive emergency response plans,
and resource allocation strategies on a global scale.
This year's scale of it is almost overwhelming
to think about it.
It really underscores how interconnected
with ours as a species, and how a threat like this
would require a truly unified global response.
Without a doubt, it would force us to confront
these fundamental questions about our priorities,
our values, and our responsibility to protect
not just ourselves, but future generations.
It's almost philosophical, isn't it?
We started out talking about space rocks
and deflection technologies.
And now we're delving into these profound questions
about humanity's future and our place in the cosmos.
It's amazing how these topics
can lead to such deep reflections.
It's a testament to the power of scientific inquiry,
to spark these broader conversations about who we are
and how we interact with the universe around us.
Well said.
This has been an incredibly thought provoking
conversation so far.
We've covered a lot of ground from the science
of asteroid detection and tracking
to the potential methods for deflecting them,
and even the profound societal and ethical implications
of a potential impact.
It's been a fascinating journey for sure.
Before we continue, let's remind our listeners
where they can connect with our host
and find more great content.
You can find Rob on Instagram at meteorologist
on TikTok, at TV meteorologist,
and on YouTube, make sure to follow Rob Jane's hurricane.
You can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast
playlist there.
And when we come back?
And when we come back, we'll wrap up this episode
with some final thoughts and a question
that we hope will stay with you long after the episode ends.
Stay tuned.
Welcome back to Meteorology Matters, everyone.
We've been having a fascinating discussion today
exploring the potential threat of asteroid 2024,
YR4, and the incredible technologies
being developed to deflect asteroids.
But before we wrap up, I want to circle back
to something we talked about earlier,
something that really struck me,
the human element of all this.
Yeah, it's a critical aspect, that's for sure.
The science and technology are fascinating,
but at the end of the day, it's about people you know
about safeguarding humanity and our future.
Exactly.
Imagine the global impact if we knew for certain
that an asteroid was on a collision course with Earth.
Even if we had the means to deflect it,
the societal and political ramifications would be immense.
Absolutely.
Think about the decisions that would have to be made,
the potential for disagreements,
even conflicts over the best course of action.
Who gets to make those calls?
How do we ensure fairness and transparency
in such a high-stakes situation?
These are questions we need to grapple with now
before we're faced with an actual crisis.
It's almost like a real-life ethical dilemma
on a global scale.
And then there's the question of public perception
and communication.
How do you even begin to explain such a complex
and potentially frightening scenario to the world
without causing widespread panic?
Yeah, that's a huge challenge.
It highlights the need for clear, accurate,
and timely communication from scientists, policymakers,
and the media-building trust and understanding
with the public is paramount in a situation like this.
It's so much more than just the science.
It's about understanding the human psyche,
the complexities of global politics,
the power of communication,
and ultimately our shared responsibility
for the future of our planet.
It truly underscores the interconnected nature of our world
and the need for international cooperation
and collaboration on an unprecedented scale.
It's a sobering thought, but also strangely inspiring.
It makes you realize that we're all in this together
facing these cosmic challenges as one species.
It's a reminder that while we might have our differences,
there are some threats that transcend borders
and ideologies, threats that demand a united front.
Well, on that note, I think it's time to bring this episode
of Mediology Matters to a close.
We've explored some complex and thought-provoking topics
today from the science of asteroid detection and deflection
to the profound societal and ethical implications
of a potential impact.
It's been an incredible journey,
and I hope our listeners have gained a deeper appreciation
for the wonders and challenges of the cosmos
and our place within it.
Before we sign off, let's remind everyone
where they can find more content
from our amazing host, Rob Jones.
You can catch Rob on Instagram at Mediologist,
on TikTok at TV Mediologist,
and on YouTube, don't forget to follow Rob Jones' hurricane,
where you can also find the Mediology Matters
podcast playlist.
And as always, we encourage everyone to stay curious,
keep exploring, and never stop asking questions
about the world around us.
Beautiful said.
Thanks for joining us on Mediology Matters.
Until next time, stay safe, stay informed,
and keep looking up at the stars.