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Hey everyone and welcome to Meteorology Matters.

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Glad to be back.

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So, get this, scientists are predicting that one of the most active volcanoes on Earth is about to erupt.

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Yep, that's right. And it could happen really soon.

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Oh wow. So where is this volcano exactly?

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It's called Axial Seamount and it's located underwater off the coast of Oregon.

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Underwater?

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Yeah.

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Hmm. So are we talking like tsunami warnings? Should people be worried?

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No, no need to panic. It's part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, but it's not on the Cascadia

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subduction zone.

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Okay, so no big one worries.

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Exactly.

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But hold on, an eruption is still an eruption, right? I mean, it's got to be a big deal, especially

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for, you know, the scientists who study these things.

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Oh, absolutely. Axial Seamount is like a superstar in the world of volcanology.

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It actually erupts pretty frequently, which gives scientists a really unique opportunity

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to test out their eruption forecasting models.

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So it's like a natural laboratory, but without the risk of a city being, you know, buried in ash.

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You got it.

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And the cool thing is scientists are getting pretty good at predicting these eruptions.

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They've been monitoring Axial Seamount for decades.

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And what have they found?

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Well, they've noticed that the volcano actually inflates as magma builds up beneath it.

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Hold on. You're saying the whole volcano inflates like a giant balloon underwater?

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It's pretty incredible, right?

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So how do they measure that?

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They use a bunch of sensors on the seafloor to track the volcano's movements.

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They found that all the previous eruptions in 1998, 2011, and then again in 2015 all happened

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when the volcano reached a specific level of inflation.

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Wow. So they're basically waiting for the balloon to, like, hit its limit?

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Pretty much.

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So what's the current status? Are we close?

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Well, based on the inflation rate and the fact that we've seen a recent jump in seismic activity,

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scientists are predicting the next eruption sometime in 2025.

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Plus, there have been tons of tiny earthquakes in the area recently,

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so things are definitely heating up down there.

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Okay, now that sounds a bit scary. Like, I would not want to be swimming over that.

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But earlier you said Axial Seamount is relatively safe to study.

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What makes it so different from the, you know, the explosive volcanoes we see on land?

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Well, the biggest difference is the water pressure.

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A mile beneath the surface, that pressure is immense,

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and it prevents the kind of violent explosive eruptions we see with volcanoes like, say, Mount St. Helens.

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Okay, so no massive explosions, got it?

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Yep. Instead of a massive blast shooting ash and debris way up into the air,

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it's a much slower, gentler process.

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So it's more like, what? oozing lava.

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Exactly.

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Think slow-moving lava flowing onto the sea floor, creating new crust,

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and forming these really cool structures we call pillow lava.

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Pillow lava, so what are those?

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Imagine these bulbous mounds of lava, some of them reaching hundreds of feet high,

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scattered all over the ocean floor.

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Wow! That's wild. I wish we could actually see it.

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I know. While we can't exactly throw on some scuba gear and head down there,

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the tech we have these days is amazing.

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Axial seamount is rigged with over 660 miles of undersea cables and more than 140 instruments.

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They're constantly monitoring everything that happens down there.

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Wow, so that's like we have a live feed from an alien plant. What kind of information are they collecting?

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It's a treasure trove of data.

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Real-time readings on everything, from seismic activity to changes in temperature to even the gases being released.

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And how does that help them predict these eruptions?

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Well, finding the patterns hidden within all that data is key to making accurate predictions.

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And this is where things get really cutting edge.

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Okay, tell me more. What's the cutting edge?

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Researchers are using AI.

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Artificial intelligence for volcanoes.

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Yep. They're using it to sort through all of the massive amounts of data,

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looking for patterns that humans might miss.

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It's like having a detective with superpowers working 24-7, cracking the code of Axial Seamount.

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Wow, that's crazy. So they feed all this info to a computer and it learns how to predict these eruptions.

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It's pretty wild. And the really cool thing is this tech isn't limited to just underwater volcanoes.

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What we learned from Axial Seamount could be applied to eruptions on land, too.

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So it's not just, you know, a cool science project.

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It has real-world implications for people living near volcanoes all over the world.

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Exactly. The more we learn about how volcanoes work, the better we can predict eruptions and keep people safe.

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And Axial Seamount is a vital part of that.

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This is incredibly fascinating. But let's back up for a second.

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We've talked about predicting when an eruption will happen, but how accurate are those predictions?

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I mean, are we talking a specific date and time or more of a general window?

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That's a great question. And it brings up the biggest challenge with volcano forecasting.

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Even with all the high-tech tools we have, there's always some uncertainty.

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So even with all the fancy sensors and AI, it's not an exact science.

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Unfortunately not. Volcanoes can be unpredictable. There's always a chance they'll do something unexpected.

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But that's also part of what makes studying them so fascinating.

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So every eruption is a learning opportunity, a chance to get better at predicting what might happen next.

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That's one way to look at it. It's like a constant back-and-forth between scientists and nature, each one trying to outsmart the other.

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Ah, I love that. And what's next for Axial Seamount research?

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Well, there's a push to develop forecasts based on the physics and chemistry of the magma systems themselves.

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So moving beyond just observing patterns to really understanding the fundamental processes behind these eruptions.

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Exactly. It's like the difference between reading tea leaves and understanding the entire history of how the tea

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was grown and brewed. It's a great analogy.

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And Axial Seamount, with its frequent eruptions and relatively predictable behavior,

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it makes it the perfect testing ground for these new models.

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It really is like the ultimate proving ground.

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Okay, so we've talked about the volcano itself, but let's not forget this is all happening a mile beneath the surface of the ocean.

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There's an entire ecosystem down there, right?

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Oh, for sure. It's a world most people will never see.

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Total darkness and intense pressure. But even in these extreme conditions, life finds a way.

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I can't even imagine. I'm picturing all those like, bizarre deep-sea creatures.

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Giant tube worms and, you know, blind shrimp. Stuff like that. It's like a sci-fi movie down there.

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It is pretty amazing. These creatures have evolved to survive in conditions that would be lethal to most life on Earth.

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You know, they get their energy from the chemicals released by hydrothermal vents powered by the volcano's heat.

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That's wild. It really is an alien world down there thriving in the darkness and fueled by a volcano.

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But I imagine an eruption must really shake things up, right?

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Yeah, it's a big disruption. You've got huge amounts of heat and chemicals being released,

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and the lava flows can reshape the seafloor, creating new habitats but destroying others.

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So some organisms might benefit while others, you know, might not fare so well.

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Exactly. It's a delicate balance.

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But it's important to remember that these deep-sea communities have evolved alongside axial seamount for a really long time.

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They're adapted to its cycles of eruptions and dormancy. Many of them are surprisingly resilient.

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Wow, nature is incredible. So they're kind of used to the volcano throwing a tantrum every few years.

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Makes you wonder how they handle such dramatic changes.

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Yeah, it's fascinating. Right.

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Well, some species can migrate away from the eruption zone.

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Others have evolved ways to actually tolerate the heat and chemicals, and some might even thrive in those newly created habitats.

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Nature is so resourceful, always finding a way. It's like a reminder that life is incredibly adaptable,

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even in the face of, you know, what seems like total catastrophe.

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It's a testament to the power of evolution, for sure.

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And it makes these deep-sea communities even more fascinating to study.

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Scientists are eager to see how they'll respond to this next eruption.

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It'll teach us about the limits of life, the strategies they use to survive in such harsh conditions.

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It's like having a front-row seat to evolution in action.

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You know, I have to admit, I'm a very visual person.

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When I think of a volcano, I imagine those classic images.

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Fiery lava fountains and, you know, plumes of ash shooting into the sky.

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So what does an underwater eruption actually look like?

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Well, unfortunately, nobody's going to be watching this eruption with their own eyes.

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We're talking about a mile underwater, hundreds of miles offshore.

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Yeah, that makes sense. So are we relying on sonar or something? How do we even know it's erupting?

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We're going high-tech with this one.

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Scientists are hoping to use something even cooler, ROVs.

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ROVs, as in remotely operated vehicles.

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You got it.

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So they're sending robots into an erupting volcano.

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It's pretty amazing. These ROVs have high-definition cameras and powerful lights.

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They capture incredible images of molten lava flowing across the seafloor.

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Wow, so we're talking about seeing those glowing rivers of lava all lit up in the darkness of the deep sea.

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Exactly. And it's not just about the visuals either.

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They can collect lava samples and analyze them, which gives us more clues about the volcano's inner workings.

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I'm getting chills just thinking about it.

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They'll also use hydrophones, which are underwater microphones.

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That way they can record all the sounds of the eruption.

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So like the hissing of escaping gases and the rumbling in the seafloor.

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Exactly. And the explosive pops as that hot lava hits the cold seawater.

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That's incredible. It's a visual and auditory feast for scientists.

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And thanks to all those undersea cables, scientists from around the world can basically follow along in real time, as all this data streams in from the depths.

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It's a global effort to understand one of our planet's most active volcanoes.

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You know, this is truly mind blowing stuff.

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When you think about all the technology and the expertise involved, it really makes you appreciate the dedication of the scientists who study these things.

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They're not just stuck in a lab analyzing data. They're out there pushing the limits of what's possible.

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It's true. Volcanology is a field that combines scientific rigor with a spirit of adventure.

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It takes a special kind of person to want to head out into the middle of the ocean and wait for a volcano to erupt.

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I have so much respect for them. They're like explorers from a Jules Verne novel venturing into the unknown depths of our planet.

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And speaking of exploration, I've always been fascinated by the connection between volcanoes and the formation of our Earth.

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These things have been shaping our planet for billions of years.

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Absolutely. Volcaners are a fundamental part of Earth's story.

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They're responsible for creating new land, releasing the gases that formed our atmosphere, and even playing a role in the very evolution of life itself.

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That's incredible. It really puts things into perspective. It's humbling to think about the scale of these processes, you know, how something as seemingly destructive as a volcano can also be so creative and, you know, shape the world we live in.

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It's all about perspective, right?

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We tend to focus on the immediate dangers of volcanoes, but they play a vital role in the grand scheme of things.

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They're a powerful reminder that our planet is dynamic, constantly changing and evolving.

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It makes you realize that we're just a small part of something much bigger, something that's been unfolding for billions of years.

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Okay, so we've talked a lot about the scientific aspects of axial seamount, but I'm curious about the human element.

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What motivates the people who dedicate their lives to studying this volcano?

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I think it's a mix of things. There's the thrill of discovery, the satisfaction of solving these scientific puzzles, and the desire to contribute to our understanding of the world.

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But there's also something deeper, a sense of awe and respect for the sheer power of nature.

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I can definitely see that. It's like they're trying to decipher the language of our Earth, understand its whispers and its roars.

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And in the case of axial seamount, it seems like they're doing a pretty good job.

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They are. And the more they learn, the more questions they uncover.

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It's a never-ending quest for knowledge driven by curiosity and passion.

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It's inspiring to think about all the work that goes into this, all the hours of observation and analysis, and the collaboration between scientists.

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It really highlights the power of human ingenuity, our desire to make sense of the world around us.

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It really does. It's a reminder that even in the face of seemingly impossible challenges, we humans have this amazing capacity for innovation and discovery.

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That's a message worth sharing, wouldn't you say?

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100%. It's a message of hope and resilience.

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A reminder that even though we face serious challenges, we also have the potential to overcome them.

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You know, through knowledge, collaboration, and by pushing the boundaries of what we think is possible.

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Well said. Axial seamount with all its mysteries and surprises is a perfect example of that.

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It's a story that's still being written. I can't wait to see what the next chapter holds.

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Me too.

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Uh-huh.

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But before we get too caught up in the future, let's come back to the present for a minute.

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We've talked about the benefits of studying axial seamount.

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But I think we should acknowledge the risks too.

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I mean, this is an act of volcano after all.

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What precautions are they taking to ensure the safety of the researchers, the equipment, all that?

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That's an excellent point. It's something scientists take very seriously.

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The research vessels, the ROVs, they're all equipped with top-notch safety features,

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and the teams go through intense training to prepare for anything.

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So it's not just a matter of, you know, throwing caution to the wind and hoping for the best?

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Not at all. There are very strict protocols to minimize the risks.

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Like, they operate the ROVs remotely, so nobody needs to be anywhere near the eruption.

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And the research vessels are always keeping a close eye on weather and sea conditions.

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They're ready to evacuate if things get dicey.

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It sounds like they're well-prepared, but let's be real.

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With nature, there's always an element of unpredictability.

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Volcanoes have a way of surprising us even when we think we've got them figured out.

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You're absolutely right.

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No matter how much we learn, there will always be some risk.

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But I think that's part of what makes studying volcanoes so compelling.

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It's a constant reminder of the power and mystery of the natural world.

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It's a healthy dose of humility for us humans, you know?

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Reminding us we're not always in control.

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But even with that uncertainty, there's a certain beauty to it, wouldn't you say?

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Absolutely. It's that sense of awe and wonder that drives us to explore, to learn,

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and to keep pushing the boundaries of what we know.

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Axial seamount, with its incredible eruptions in these hidden ecosystems,

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is a perfect example of why we keep on exploring.

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So well said.

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Okay, so we've explored the science, the risks, and the wonder of Axial seamount.

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But now I want to talk about something that's been on my mind.

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We've talked about the potential impact on the DP ecosystem,

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but what about the ocean as a whole?

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Could an eruption of this magnitude have any noticeable effects on, like, ocean currents,

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or even global climate?

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That's a great question, and honestly it's one that scientists are still trying to wrap their heads around.

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Volcanic eruptions, you know, both on land and underwater,

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they release a lot of gases and particles into the atmosphere and the ocean,

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and those emissions can have all sorts of effects, some are short term, some are long term.

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So the impacts could go way beyond just the area right around the volcano.

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Right. For example, big eruptions, they can shoot sulfur dioxide way up high into the stratosphere,

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and up there it can form these things called sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight away from the Earth.

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So that's like a natural sunblock.

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Kinda. And that can actually have a cooling effect on the planet,

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you know, potentially offsetting some of that warming we're seeing from greenhouse gases.

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So volcanoes can act as a sort of like a natural thermostat, helping to keep Earth's temperature in check.

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In a way, yeah. But it's complicated.

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The effects can vary depending on, you know, the size of the eruption, where it happened,

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and what the atmosphere is like at the time.

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Scientists are still studying all those connections, trying to figure out exactly how volcanoes influence our climate.

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It sounds like there's still a lot we don't know, but it's pretty amazing to think about those connections,

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how something happening deep down on the ocean floor could have these far reaching global impacts.

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It really shows how interconnected everything on our planet is, right?

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The atmosphere, the oceans, the Earth's interior, it's all linked together in these intricate ways.

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It reminds us that we can't just study things in isolation.

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We've got to look at the bigger picture to see how, you know, a change in one part of the system affects everything else.

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Exactly. And that's one of the biggest challenges and the rewards of studying Earth science.

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It forces us to think critically, you know, to connect the dots and to appreciate how complex our planet truly is.

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Well, speaking of complexity, one thing that's always fascinated me about Axial Seamount is its location within the Pacific Ring of Fire.

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For anyone who's not familiar with that term, can you give us a quick rundown of what the Ring of Fire is and why it's so geologically active?

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Sure. The Ring of Fire is this horseshoe-shaped zone that basically circles the entire Pacific Ocean.

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It's known for intense volcanic and earthquake activity, and all that activity is driven by plate tectonics,

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which is the movement of those massive plates that make up the Earth's crust.

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In the Ring of Fire, those plates are colliding, sliding past each other, and sometimes even diving beneath each other, which we call subduction.

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All that pushing and shoving generates a ton of heat and pressure, and that leads to the formation of volcanoes and triggers those earthquakes.

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So Axial Seamount is just one piece of this giant puzzle, a puzzle that spans the whole Pacific Ocean.

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That's right. And it's a puzzle that scientists are still putting together.

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The Ring of Fire is a very dynamic region, constantly changing, and there's still so much to learn about its geology, its history, and all those forces that shape it.

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It's a constant reminder that we live on a planet that's constantly in motion, always changing and evolving,

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and volcanoes like Axial Seamount are a dramatic testament to that dynamism.

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Couldn't have said it better myself, and they give us this incredible window into the inner workings of our planet.

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It's a chance to study the processes that shaped our world and that still influence our lives today.

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Now, I have to ask, is there any concern that an eruption at Axial Seamount could trigger other eruptions in the region?

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Could it set off a chain reaction along the Ring of Fire?

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That's a question that's been on scientists' minds for decades.

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It's true that eruptions can sometimes influence nearby volcanoes, but we still don't completely understand how those interactions work.

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So it's not as straightforward as, like, one eruption setting off a domino effect.

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It's way more complex than that. It depends on the distance between the volcanoes, the types of magma involved, and the stresses in the Earth's crust.

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It's like a delicate balancing act.

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So while an eruption at Axial Seamount could have some impact on nearby volcanoes, scientists aren't super concerned about a chain reaction.

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Exactly. Most scientists agree that the chance of Axial triggering a cascade of eruptions is pretty low,

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but of course they're monitoring the entire Ring of Fire, keeping an eye out for anything unusual that might signal a potential threat.

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Makes sense. So they're ready to jump into action if they see any warning signs.

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Okay, let's shift gears a bit. We've talked about how incredible nature is,

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but now we want to talk about us humans. How much are our activities affecting volcanoes?

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That's a really important question. You know, we're living in a time of incredible technological advancements,

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and we're consuming resources at an unprecedented rate.

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And there's growing evidence that some of those activities, especially things that change the balance of fluids within the Earth's crust,

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can affect both volcanic and seismic activity.

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Can you give us some examples?

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Sure. One is the extraction of groundwater and hydrocarbons.

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That can reduce pressure in the Earth's crust, which can sometimes trigger earthquakes or even eruptions.

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And then there's the injection of fluids back into the ground, like we see with wastewater disposal or hydraulic fracturing.

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That can increase pressure and induce seismic activity.

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So it's not just a one-way street, you know, us observing nature. Our actions can actually influence how the Earth behaves.

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Exactly. It's a bit sobering to think about it.

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Our activities can have these ripple effects, and we might not always fully understand what those are or what the consequences might be.

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It definitely highlights the importance of being responsible with our resources and really thinking about the potential impacts of our actions.

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Okay, so we've talked about the risks and challenges, but it's important to remember that volcanoes aren't all bad.

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In fact, they provide lots of benefits. Can you tell us about some of the ways they contribute to life on Earth?

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Definitely. Volcanoes are often seen as destructive, but they're also incredibly creative and beneficial.

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For instance, they've played a huge role in the formation of the continents and oceans.

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They release gases and particles that, over millions of years, help to create the air we breathe.

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And volcanic soils are incredibly fertile. They're packed with nutrients that support agriculture and all sorts of amazing ecosystems.

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So volcanoes aren't just fire and brimstone. They're essential for life itself.

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100 percent. They're fundamental to Earth systems. They shape the planet into the home we know and love.

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It reminds me that even when we see destructive forces, there's always a creative element, too.

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And it's that balance that makes our planet so dynamic, so fascinating.

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Exactly. And it's a balance we need to respect and understand if we want to ensure a sustainable future, both for ourselves and for future generations.

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So Axial Seamount. It's been fascinating to explore its secrets and what it can teach us about our planet.

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But as we wrap up today, what's one thing you hope our listeners take away from this episode? What's the big picture message here?

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For me, it's a message of interconnectedness and humility. Axial Seamount isn't just some lone volcano down in the ocean.

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It's part of this vast, complex web that includes plate tectonics, ocean currents, ecosystems, and even the Earth's climate.

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Understanding these connections is key to addressing the challenges we face as a species, things like climate change and natural disasters.

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So studying volcanoes isn't just about scientific curiosity. It's about understanding our place on Earth and how we can, you know, impact those systems.

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Absolutely. And it's a reminder that we need to treat our planet with respect.

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Well said. That's a message we can all take to heart.

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Well, everyone, that's all the time we have for this episode of Meteorology Matters.

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Big thanks to our expert for joining us and sharing their insights into the amazing world of Axial Seamount.

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My pleasure. And don't forget, this is just the beginning of the story. Axial Seamount is out there rumbling beneath the waves.

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Who knows what new secrets it'll reveal in the years to come? Stay curious, everyone.

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And if you want to learn more, make sure to follow meteorologist Rob Jones on social media.

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You can find him on Instagram at meteorologist on Tiktok at TV meteorologist and on YouTube at Rob Jones Hurricane.

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You can also find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist there for more deep dives into weather, volcanoes and everything. Earth science.

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We'll be back soon with more fascinating stories about our incredible planet. Until then, stay curious.