All right, so we've got this mountain of research articles and reports on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Yeah.
And you wanted to get into how climate change played into all of these hurricanes lately.
Mm-hmm.
And looking through all this.
Yeah.
It seems like there's some pretty interesting stuff in here.
Oh, there's some compelling data here for sure, yeah.
One of the things that jumped out at me right away was just how busy this season was.
Right.
18 named storms, 11 hurricanes.
Mm-hmm.
Five of them reaching that major hurricane status.
Yeah.
Seems like we're hearing about these really active seasons more and more often these days.
2024, it was a very active year.
Yeah.
Yeah, to put it in perspective, an average season, you're looking at about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Okay.
So this was definitely above average activity.
And it wasn't just the number of storms either, right?
Right.
We saw some pretty unusual stuff with how they formed and where they hit.
Five hurricanes made landfall on the US Gulf Coast this year.
Yeah, the Gulf Coast got hammered this year.
That's a lot, isn't it?
While that concentration is rare, it's not completely unheard of.
We saw similar patterns in 2005 and 2020.
Right.
Both of those were big hurricane years.
Yeah.
But what makes 2024 really stand out is the sheer intensity of some of these hurricanes.
Okay.
Two of them, Barrel and Milton, reached category 5.
Whoa, okay.
Yeah.
Category 5, that's pretty rare, right?
It is.
Only seven other years on record have had two or more Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Wow.
What's even more striking is that both Barrel and Milton went through this rapid intensification.
Yeah, I was reading about that.
Which is becoming more and more common.
Uh-huh.
And scientists think it's tied to climate change.
Let's talk about Barrel for a second.
Okay.
They felt like that one was in the news a lot, especially for how early it formed.
Barrel was kind of an oddball in a lot of ways.
Uh-huh.
It was the earliest hurricane to form so far east in the Atlantic.
Wow.
And the earliest to reach both Category 3 and Category 5 intensity that we've ever seen.
Really?
Yeah.
So all kinds of records there.
Absolutely.
It also intensified at an incredible pace.
Yeah.
Went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just three and a half days.
Three and a half days.
Yeah.
That's crazy.
It is.
I'm starting to see why you said these reports were sobering.
Uh-huh.
It feels like Barrel might be a case study in just how climate change is messing with hurricanes.
I think you're onto something there.
Yeah.
More and more research shows that these warmer ocean temperatures, which are fueled by climate change,
are a big reason why these hurricanes are getting so strong.
Right.
And I've got this report here from Climate Central and they're saying that every single
hurricane in 2024 was stronger because of human-caused ocean warming.
That's a pretty bold statement.
Yeah.
But the research they have is pretty convincing.
Okay.
They use this new rapid attribution framework to figure out the effect of that human-caused ocean warming.
And they applied this methodology to hurricanes from 2019 to 2023 as well.
Oh, wow.
They're seeing a pretty clear trend here.
Okay.
Yeah.
And their findings for 2024 are pretty stark.
Yeah.
All 11 hurricanes intensified by 9 to 28 miles per hour.
Wow.
Because of those warmer ocean temperatures.
So that's like a whole category jump for some of those hurricanes.
Seven out of the 11 hurricanes were bumped up at least one category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Just because of that extra intensity?
Correct.
Wow.
That's, uh-
Significantly.
That's a big deal.
Yes.
And we've got data that shows just how weird these warmer ocean temperatures were.
Right.
The Climate Shift Index, they found that those daily sea surface temperatures across the
board were at least 44 times more likely to happen.
Yeah.
Because of, you know, all the stuff we're doing to the planet.
Human-caused climate change.
Yeah.
It's a big factor.
44 times more likely.
That's-
It's pretty alarming.
Yes, a lot.
Yeah.
And it's not just the wind speeds, right?
No, not just the wind speeds.
These warmer temperatures make those rapid intensification events.
Exactly.
Like we saw with Barrel.
Yeah.
Way more likely.
Much more likely.
Which is a big deal because even a small increase in a hurricane's wind speed can drastically
increase the damage it causes.
Right.
And there's this report from Yale Climate Connections.
Mm-hmm.
And they said that just a 10% increase in hurricane winds can double the damage.
Yeah.
Hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind speed.
Right.
So even small increases like the ones we're seeing because of climate change.
Yeah.
And that can lead to much greater destruction on the ground.
So we're seeing stronger hurricanes.
Mm-hmm.
Yes.
They're getting stronger faster.
Right.
But it's the damage they cause.
Absolutely.
And all the costs that come with that damage.
Yeah.
Really hits home.
Yeah.
Are we starting to see the economic impact of all these climate-boosted hurricanes?
We are.
The Yale Climate Connections report also pointed to studies that found a direct link between
climate change and the damage caused by Helene and Milton.
Two of this season's major hurricanes.
And what kind of numbers are we talking about here?
For Helene, it's estimated that 44% of the economic damage was because of climate change.
Wow.
And for Milton, 45%.
Okay.
That's a huge chunk of the cost.
It is.
These numbers just underscore the growing economic burden of climate change.
Yeah.
Beyond the immediate human toll these disasters take.
So we've established that climate change is making these hurricanes worse, right?
Yes.
And that this is having real-world economic consequences.
Right.
Before we get too bogged down in the doom and gloom though, is there anything in these
reports that gives us some hope?
Wow.
Or at least helps us understand how we can minimize these risks?
Well, the big picture is certainly worrisome.
It's worth remembering that hurricane development is a complex process.
Okay.
There are other factors at play beyond just warm ocean temperatures.
Right.
And sometimes those other factors can actually counteract the effects of the warmer water.
Okay.
The Yale report mentions Tropical Storms, Sarah, which had the potential to become a major
hurricane because of the warm water.
But its proximity to land prevented it from reaching its full potential.
So basically running into land stopped it from getting worse.
Exactly.
Interesting.
It highlights that while warmer waters are like fuel for hurricanes, things like wind shear,
how close they are to land, and the overall atmospheric conditions, all those things play a role too.
It's complicated.
It is.
It's a very complex system.
It's not as simple as saying warmer oceans equal bigger batter hurricanes all the time.
Right.
It's not a one-to-one correlation.
Okay.
Good to know.
But we can say with more and more certainty that climate change is having a very real
impact on the intensity of these storms, and that's likely to continue in the future.
Okay.
We'll dive more into those implications in just a bit.
Sounds good.
So we've seen that the 2024 hurricane season was really active and intense, and that climate
change is playing a part in that.
But let's dig a little deeper into some specific hurricanes and see how this connection actually
plays out.
Sounds good.
We've already touched on Hurricane Barrel.
Yeah, with all the early season records it set.
Exactly.
Its rapid intensification was really something else.
Three and a half days, right?
Went from a tropical depression to a category five and just three and a half days.
Yeah, that's unbelievable.
That kind of intensification fueled by those really warm ocean waters?
Yeah.
It raises some serious concerns about what we might see in future hurricane seasons.
Makes you wonder if we're going to start seeing more category five hurricanes in the coming
years.
It's a valid concern.
Yeah.
The Climate Central report said that Barrel's wind speeds were 18 miles per hour higher.
Wow.
Because of that human-caused ocean warming.
So, without that boost, it might have seen a category four?
It might have, yeah.
Which means less damage, right?
Potentially, yeah.
And speaking of damage, Barrel spawned a bunch of tornadoes after it hit Texas.
It seems like we're seeing more tornadoes from hurricanes these days.
It's a complex issue.
There is ongoing research into the link between climate change and tornadoes.
But it's still too early to say for sure if there is a direct connection.
So more research needed there?
Definitely.
So, Barrel is a pretty clear example of how climate change might be influencing hurricane
formation, intensification, and maybe even the tornadoes they create.
Yeah, it could be a factor in all of those things.
What about some of the other hurricanes this season?
Okay.
Like, Haleen?
Is it notable because of the massive flooding it caused in the southeast?
While Haleen itself was a strong storm.
Right.
The flooding was made even worse by this other weather system.
Right.
There was already dumping rain on the region.
Exactly.
And then Haleen just added to it.
It was a really unfortunate combination of events.
Yeah, do we know if climate change had anything to do with how much rain Haleen dumped?
It's tough to pin specific rainfall events on climate change.
But we do know that warmer air holds more moisture.
Right.
And it's meant to heavier rainfall during hurricanes.
So, it's possible that climate change made that flooding even worse.
It's definitely possible.
And what about Hurricane Milton?
Okay.
That was the strongest of the season, right?
The strongest of the season, and it went through a really fast intensification just like Barrel.
Milton is like the poster child.
Okay.
For how climate change can make a naturally powerful storm even more destructive.
Okay.
The Climate Central report said that Milton's winds were 23 miles per hour stronger.
23.
23 miles per hour stronger.
Wow.
Because of human-caused ocean warming.
So, without climate change, Milton would have been a lot weaker.
Potentially much weaker, yes.
And we talked earlier about how some studies linked a big chunk of the damage from Haleen
and Milton to climate change.
We did.
Didn't they?
They did.
What was it, like 45% for Milton?
Researchers said that 45% of the economic damage was because of climate change.
That's a big number.
It is.
It highlights how the costs of climate change go way beyond just property damage.
Right.
There's the disruptions to businesses, the strain on infrastructure, and the long-term impact
on communities.
Yeah.
It's not just about the stuff that gets broken.
Exactly.
It seems like the more we learn about these hurricanes, the more we see climate changes
fingerprints all over them.
It's a sobering realization, but it's important to remember that being aware of the problem
is the first step towards doing something about it.
Right.
Knowledge is power in all that.
Exactly.
The more we understand about how climate change is affecting these storms, the better we can
prepare for them and adapt to this new reality we're facing.
So we've looked at a few specific hurricanes.
We have.
And seen how climate change is affecting their intensity and behavior.
Can we pull out any bigger trends from all this data?
Absolutely.
The 2024 hurricane season falls right in line with a growing body of evidence that climate
change is making hurricanes stronger around the world.
Those warmer ocean temperatures driven by human activities are giving these storms
more energy to develop and intensify.
And this isn't just a one-year thing.
No, not at all.
The Climate Central report also looked at Atlantic hurricanes from 2019 to 2023.
They did.
What do they see there?
Well, climate change has been steadily increasing hurricane intensity over the past five years.
Wow.
On average, hurricane wind speeds were about 18 miles per hour faster.
Because of human-caused ocean warming?
Correct.
So we're seeing a clear pattern of increasing intensity and 2024 is just the latest example.
Exactly.
The science is pretty clear on this.
As long as we keep emitting greenhouse gases and warming the planet, we can expect hurricanes
to become even more intense.
And that means more damage, more flooding, higher costs.
Exactly.
Okay, before we get too deep into those implications, let's go back to one last point from the research.
Climate change is a big driver in hurricane intensification.
But other factors are also at work.
Absolutely.
Remember tropical storms, Sarah?
I do.
How its interaction with land stopped it from becoming a major hurricane?
Right.
Even with those warm waters.
Yeah.
So it's a good reminder that while warmer water can fuel hurricane development, things
like wind shear, how close they are to land, and the overall atmospheric conditions, those
all matter too.
So it's a complicated system.
It is a complex system.
And we need to understand all the pieces of the puzzle to accurately predict how hurricanes
will behave and how to prepare for future storms.
So we've looked at the data.
We have.
We've looked at specific examples and considered the bigger trends.
It's pretty clear that climate change is making hurricanes stronger.
There's no doubt about it.
And the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a pretty powerful illustration of that.
It was.
As we move into the last part of our deep dive.
It's important to keep all this in mind.
As we think about what these trends mean and what we can do about them, so we've seen just
how powerful these storms can be and how much climate change is playing a role.
We've got all this data, all these trends, and we've looked at what happened with specific
hurricanes.
It's a lot to take in, but where do we go from here?
What can we actually do with this information?
That's the million dollar question, right?
We can't just watch as these storms get worse and worse.
We have to do something.
We have to take action.
And there are two main things we need to focus on.
Mitigation and adaptation.
Okay.
We'll go through that a little bit.
Sure.
What do we mean by mitigation and adaptation when we're talking about hurricanes and climate
change?
So mitigation is about tackling the root of the problem.
Which in this case is climate change itself.
So cutting down on those greenhouse gases.
Exactly.
We're talking about reducing emissions to slow down how fast the planet is warming and
limit the effects in the long run.
And adaptation.
Adaptation is about adjusting to the changes that are already happening and preparing for
what's coming down the road.
Got it.
So mitigation is trying to stop things from getting worse.
And adaptation is dealing with the consequences we're already seeing and that are going to
keep coming.
You got it.
Okay.
So on the mitigation side, things like switching to renewable energy, being more energy efficient,
protecting forests.
All those things are critical for reducing emissions.
Those are all things we hear a lot about, but are they actually making a difference?
Yes.
There's been a lot of progress in those areas.
Okay, good.
There's a global push towards renewable energy.
And people are more aware of the need to shrink their carbon footprint.
But we have to move faster if we want to avoid the worst case scenarios of climate change.
Which includes these stronger hurricanes we've been talking about.
It sounds like mitigation is a long term strategy.
It is.
What about adaptation?
What can we do in the short term to get ready for these stronger hurricanes?
Immigration involves a lot of different strategies from making building homes tougher to better
early warning systems and evacuation plans.
It's about making our communities and our infrastructure stronger, more resilient so
they can withstand the impact of these storms.
So things like making buildings and bridges tougher so they can handle stronger winds
and building homes higher up in areas that tend to flood.
Exactly.
Making sure they're above the flood level.
And it's not just about buildings and bridges, we also have to invest in natural infrastructure.
Okay, what does that mean?
Things like coastal wetlands and barrier islands.
How do those help?
They act as natural buffers.
And can help lessen the blow when a storm hits.
Interesting.
This all sounds pretty expensive though, right?
Yeah, it does.
And the question is, can we actually afford to do all of this on a large scale?
It's true, adaptation takes a lot of money from both governments and private businesses.
But not doing anything is even more expensive.
Think about all the economic damage hurricanes already cause.
Yeah, it's a lot.
And it's only going to get worse as these storms become more intense.
So spending money on adaptation now could actually save us money down the road.
Exactly.
And it could save lives too.
That's a good point.
It's not just about the money, it's about protecting people, protecting their homes
and communities.
By taking steps to get ready for this changing climate, we can lessen the human cause.
And the cost of these disasters.
We've talked about both mitigation and adaptation.
Both are super important.
But where do we even start?
What are the most urgent things we need to do to deal with these increasingly strong
hurricanes?
We can't pick just one.
We need to do it all.
We need to double down on our efforts to slow down climate change by cutting those greenhouse
gas emissions.
We have to invest in making our communities more resilient to hurricanes.
And we need to keep researching these storms so we can better understand them and how they're
changing as the climate changes.
So the multi-pronged attack.
Yes.
That needs everyone working together.
Governments, businesses, individuals, we all have a role to play.
It's been a really informative deep dive.
Good.
I'm glad.
But I have to admit, it's also a bit overwhelming.
I get it.
It's clear that we're facing a big challenge with these hurricanes becoming more intense.
But it's also clear that we have ways to deal with it if you're willing to take action.
I think that's a great way to put it.
We can't afford to just sit back and do nothing.
We have the knowledge, the tools, and the ability to deal with this.
What we need now is the collective will to act.
And on that note, as we wrap up this deep dive, I think it's important to remember that we're
not helpless in all of this.
Absolutely not.
The choices we make today will determine how bad things get in the future.
The future is still in our hands.