1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,920 All right, so let's dive right in. 2 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:04,800 Hurricane season, it's November, 3 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:08,000 and you'd think things would be calming down, but... 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:09,680 Well, yeah, you would think. 5 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,520 The tropics seem to have other plans, 6 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:14,360 especially down there in the Caribbean. 7 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,600 We've got this new system brewing, 8 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,320 everyone's talking about it, asking about it, 9 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,440 and frankly, I get it, there are a lot of questions right now. 10 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,360 Like, will this fizzle out? 11 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,680 Or could it actually become something more serious? 12 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:29,640 And where is it gonna go? 13 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,000 Yeah, the big question. 14 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,000 Some folks even saying the Gulf of Mexico might be in play. 15 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,320 Yeah, that's definitely got some people worried, 16 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,000 especially this late in the year. 17 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,280 I mean, I remember Hurricane Nicole last year. 18 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:42,120 Oh, yeah. 19 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:44,360 November hurricanes, they're rare. 20 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:45,200 Right. 21 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:46,800 But clearly not impossible. 22 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:48,080 No, not at all. 23 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:49,720 So, all right, let's break it down. 24 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:50,840 You've been looking into this. 25 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,560 Yeah, so as of today, November 1st. 26 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:55,480 2024. 27 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:56,960 2024, that's right. 28 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,480 The National Hurricane Center. 29 00:00:58,480 --> 00:00:59,800 The NHC, yeah. 30 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:01,840 Keeping an eye on not one, not two. 31 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:03,360 But three areas in the Atlantic. 32 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,440 Yeah, three areas for potential tropical development. 33 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:07,320 Three. 34 00:01:07,320 --> 00:01:09,480 Wow, okay, so tell me about these areas, what have we got? 35 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,600 All right, so we've got this tropical weather outlook 36 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:13,600 and this article from weather.com. 37 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,520 The one that's really catching everyone's eye 38 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,360 is down in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. 39 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:19,200 Okay. 40 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,440 It's got a pretty high chance of developing 41 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,520 like 80% in the next week. 42 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,160 80%, whoa, that's pretty high. 43 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:27,360 Yeah, that's significant. 44 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,400 Okay, so that's one, what about the other two? 45 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,920 Okay, so one's hanging out near Puerto Rico, 46 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,640 but it's got a very low chance of developing. 47 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:35,480 Okay, good. 48 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:36,760 So we're not too worried about that one. 49 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:37,600 Okay. 50 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:38,920 And then there's another system, 51 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:40,800 way out in the North Atlantic, 52 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,480 and it has a moderate chance of becoming, 53 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,600 well, either subtropical or tropical. 54 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:47,440 Interesting. 55 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,520 But really honestly, it's that Caribbean system. 56 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:50,360 Yeah. 57 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:51,440 That's the one that has everyone on edge. 58 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:52,720 Okay, I can see why. 59 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,040 80% chance of development, that sounds, well, 60 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:56,880 kind of serious. 61 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:58,880 Yeah, it definitely has the potential. 62 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,360 So help me understand this, when they say 80%, 63 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:02,840 what does that actually mean? 64 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:03,680 Good question. 65 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,560 And like, why is it so hard to predict 66 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,280 what these tropical systems are gonna do, 67 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:10,800 especially this late in the year? 68 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:11,640 Right. 69 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:13,800 Yeah, so those percentages, 70 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,560 they represent the likelihood of the system developing 71 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,040 into, well, at least a tropical depression, 72 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,760 or stronger within a certain time period, 73 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,200 in this case, seven days. 74 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:24,040 Okay. 75 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,480 And the NHC, they use, well, they use all sorts of things, 76 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,520 sophisticated computer models, historical data, 77 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,920 and of course, their own expert analysis, 78 00:02:32,920 --> 00:02:34,440 to come up with those probabilities. 79 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,440 So it's not like they're just throwing darts at a board. 80 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:37,520 Oh, absolutely not, no. 81 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,040 But predicting tropical systems, 82 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,920 especially in November, it's tricky. 83 00:02:42,920 --> 00:02:46,240 It's like, trying to nail jelly to a wall. 84 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,080 I can imagine. 85 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,200 You've got so many different factors at play. 86 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,480 You've got cold fronts moving through, 87 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:52,880 upper level disturbances, 88 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,160 and those can really mess things up. 89 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:56,360 Then you've got wind shear, 90 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,040 which can basically just rip a storm apart. 91 00:02:59,040 --> 00:02:59,880 Oh, wow. 92 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,120 Dry air, and then the gulf waters, 93 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:03,360 they're starting to cool down. 94 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:04,280 Oh, right, of course. 95 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:05,640 All these things can really affect 96 00:03:05,640 --> 00:03:08,320 whether a storm forms or fizzles out. 97 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:09,880 Right, so lots of moving parts. 98 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:11,320 Yeah, lots of variables. 99 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,520 And trying to predict what this particular system 100 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,400 is gonna do, it's a real challenge. 101 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:16,320 Oh, definitely. 102 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,200 You mentioned upper level disturbances. 103 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:19,600 What exactly are those? 104 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:20,760 Oh, great question. 105 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:22,400 So upper level disturbances, 106 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:23,240 they're like these, 107 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,560 well, think of them like ripples in the wind patterns 108 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,520 up high in the atmosphere. 109 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,280 Like waves in the jet stream. 110 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:30,120 Got it. 111 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,840 And sometimes these disturbances, 112 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,800 they can interact with the lower levels of the atmosphere, 113 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:38,760 where those tropical systems form. 114 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:40,240 And if the conditions are right, 115 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,280 they can actually help a system to develop. 116 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,120 Give it spin, give it lift. 117 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:45,960 Interesting. 118 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:47,520 But sometimes they can do the opposite. 119 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:48,360 Oh, really? 120 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,200 They can actually prevent a storm from forming, 121 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,200 or even weaken one that's already there. 122 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:53,760 So they can either help or hurt. 123 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,640 Exactly, it all depends on how they interact 124 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,440 with the lower levels of the atmosphere. 125 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,000 Wow, that's fascinating. 126 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,040 But let's get back to this Caribbean system. 127 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,000 Why should our listener be particularly interested 128 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,320 in this one? 129 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,200 What's at stake here 130 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,720 if it actually enters the Gulf of Mexico? 131 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:13,240 Yeah, that's the big question, right? 132 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,520 Well, even if the system stays relatively weak, 133 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,200 you know, its presence in the Gulf 134 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,360 can still disrupt things. 135 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,520 It can disrupt offshore oil and gas production. 136 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:24,360 Oh, of course. 137 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,440 Which, you know, could lead to price increases, 138 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:28,680 at least temporarily. 139 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:29,640 Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. 140 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,160 Plus, depending on its path and how strong it gets, 141 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,960 there's always the risk of heavy rain, 142 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,880 strong winds, coastal flooding, 143 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,000 especially for areas along the Gulf Coast 144 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:42,520 that are, well, you know, 145 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,160 still recovering from past hurricanes. 146 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,400 Right, right, still very vulnerable. 147 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:48,240 Absolutely. 148 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,880 And talking about all this uncertainty around its path 149 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,640 and that pasted tech source you sent over, 150 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,680 it really highlighted that. 151 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,560 It said the computer models, 152 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,680 they mostly agree that this system's gonna move 153 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:00,800 into the Gulf of Mexico. 154 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:02,960 Right, probably sometime around Thursday. 155 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:04,120 Okay, so Thursday. 156 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,040 But the thing is, there's no consensus 157 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:07,640 on how strong it's gonna be by then. 158 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:08,480 Right. 159 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:09,440 It could be a tropical depression, 160 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,960 a tropical storm, or something else entirely. 161 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:12,800 Yeah, who knows? 162 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:13,640 Exactly. 163 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,520 It's like, this system's playing a game of tropical roulette. 164 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,200 You just don't know what you're gonna get. 165 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:20,800 I like that tropical roulette. 166 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,000 That's what makes it so fascinating 167 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,120 and kind of nerve-wracking to follow. 168 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,080 Totally. 169 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,200 So imagine this, we've got this swirling mass 170 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,840 of clouds and thunderstorms down there in the Caribbean. 171 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:34,680 It's slowly drifting north. 172 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,520 Who knows if it's gaining strength or fizzling out. 173 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:38,360 Right. 174 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,040 And then, bam, it enters the Gulf. 175 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:42,960 It's a meteorological mystery. 176 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,080 Totally, unfolding right before our eyes. 177 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:46,680 And you know what's interesting? 178 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,920 This isn't totally unusual for November. 179 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:49,760 Oh, really? 180 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,720 According to that weather.com article, 181 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,640 the Western Caribbean is actually a bit of a hotspot 182 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,760 for late season tropical development. 183 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,720 Hmm, I never knew that. 184 00:05:58,720 --> 00:05:59,560 It's true. 185 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:00,400 I always thought hurricane season 186 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,520 was basically over by November. 187 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,160 That's a common misconception. 188 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:05,240 Guess I was wrong. 189 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:06,080 Yeah, it's true. 190 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,680 The peak of hurricane season is in September, 191 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,840 but we can absolutely still get tropical storms 192 00:06:11,840 --> 00:06:14,280 and even hurricanes in November. 193 00:06:14,280 --> 00:06:16,360 Just look at last year, 2022. 194 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:17,320 Oh, right. 195 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,040 That was a crazy November, wasn't it? 196 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:20,880 It was. 197 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,240 We had hurricanes Lisa, Martin, and Nicole 198 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:25,800 all forming in November. 199 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,440 Wow, I almost forgot about those. 200 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,200 And remember, Nicole even made landfall in Florida. 201 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:31,040 Oh, yeah. 202 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:32,000 In a category one hurricane. 203 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:32,840 Wow. 204 00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:34,360 So yeah, even though it's rare, 205 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,320 a November hurricane making landfall in the mainland US, 206 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:39,160 it's definitely possible. 207 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,160 All right, so back to our current system, 208 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,800 the one potentially swirling towards the Gulf. 209 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:45,960 Any indication yet of which direction 210 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,560 it might head once it gets there? 211 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:48,680 It's still early. 212 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:49,520 Sure. 213 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,200 The models are showing a bunch of possibilities 214 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:52,600 and they're not all in agreement yet. 215 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,440 Yeah. 216 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:54,920 Some suggest it could curve north 217 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,560 towards the Louisiana or Texas coast. 218 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,760 While others are showing it staying further south, 219 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,320 maybe impacting Mexico. 220 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:02,160 Are you in Cuba? 221 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,000 So lots of uncertainty still. 222 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:05,040 What about intensity? 223 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,040 Any chance this thing could turn into a major hurricane? 224 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,480 Well, the good news is most of the models 225 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,120 are suggesting it'll likely stay relatively weak. 226 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:13,960 You're kidding, that's good. 227 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,200 The water temperatures in the Gulf 228 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,440 this time of year are cooler. 229 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,440 And we've got that wind shear increasing. 230 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,160 Those things should help keep it in check. 231 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:23,440 That is a relief. 232 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,200 But even a weaker system can still bring 233 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:26,760 some heavy rain and wind, right? 234 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,160 Absolutely. 235 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,280 It's important to remember that even a tropical storm 236 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:35,080 or a weak hurricane can still cause significant damage, 237 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,680 especially if it stalls out over an area 238 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:39,520 or moves really slowly. 239 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,280 Okay, so to recap, we've got a system in the Caribbean, 240 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,080 high chance of development, 241 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,200 a path that's uncertain could enter the Gulf of Mexico. 242 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:48,200 Right. 243 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,240 But most likely it's gonna stay relatively weak. 244 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,280 That's what the models are suggesting, at least for now. 245 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:55,920 Okay, so it sounds like we just gotta keep 246 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,320 watching those forecasts. 247 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:58,160 Definitely. 248 00:07:58,160 --> 00:07:59,000 See how things play out. 249 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:00,440 Absolutely, it'll be interesting to see 250 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,280 what happens over the next few days. 251 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,360 Yeah, I'm sure we'll have plenty more to discuss 252 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:05,440 as this system evolves. 253 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:06,560 I'm sure we will. 254 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,880 All right, folks, so that's it for part one 255 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,120 of our deep dive into this, well, 256 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,040 this intriguing tropical system. 257 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:14,880 Uh-huh. 258 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:16,160 Make sure to stick around for part two. 259 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:17,400 Yeah, we'll be back. 260 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,280 We'll be delving deeper into the factors 261 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,160 that influence hurricane development. 262 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:23,640 Right. 263 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:25,560 We'll explore some historical examples 264 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,000 of these late season storms. 265 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:27,840 Yeah. 266 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:28,880 And we'll talk about what you can do 267 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:30,360 to stay safe and prepared. 268 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:31,200 Exactly. 269 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,320 No matter what this system decides to do. 270 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:34,160 That's right. 271 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:35,000 So stay tuned. 272 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:36,200 Welcome back. 273 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:37,520 All right, so before we went to break, 274 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,320 we were talking about this tropical system. 275 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:40,160 Right. 276 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,160 Down in the Caribbean, 277 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,240 with its sites potentially set on the Gulf of Mexico. 278 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:45,080 Uh-huh. 279 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,320 And, you know, we talked about how 280 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,920 it's kind of playing this game of will it or won't it. 281 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:50,760 Right, exactly. 282 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:51,800 With its intensity. 283 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:53,480 It's like, will it become a hurricane 284 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,520 or will it just stay a tropical storm or depression? 285 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:58,200 Right. 286 00:08:58,200 --> 00:08:59,920 And we know even weaker systems 287 00:08:59,920 --> 00:09:01,920 can still cause a lot of problems. 288 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:02,760 Perhaps. 289 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,200 You know, heavy rain, wind, flooding, all that. 290 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:06,040 For sure. 291 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:07,400 So I'm still curious, 292 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,600 what makes the Western Caribbean 293 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,080 such a, I don't know, like a prime location 294 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,240 for tropical development this late in the year. 295 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,800 It's like, that area just seems to have a knack 296 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,080 for brewing of these late season surprises. 297 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:21,920 Right. 298 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:22,760 Like a cauldron, 299 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:24,080 just waiting for the right conditions 300 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:25,280 to spark something up. 301 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:26,120 I like that. 302 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:27,480 A cauldron of tropical ingredients. 303 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,600 And there are a couple of key factors at play here. 304 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:30,440 Okay. 305 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:33,520 First, the water temperatures in the Western Caribbean, 306 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,560 they stay relatively warm even into November. 307 00:09:36,560 --> 00:09:37,400 Okay, that makes sense. 308 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,800 You know, warm water, that's the fuel for hurricanes. 309 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:40,560 Right, of course. 310 00:09:40,560 --> 00:09:41,560 As long as those temperatures 311 00:09:41,560 --> 00:09:44,040 stay above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, 312 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,320 there's potential for a system to develop. 313 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,120 So the water's still warm enough, even now. 314 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:50,200 Yeah, even in November. 315 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,600 Okay, but what else is going on up there 316 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,680 in the atmosphere that's contributing 317 00:09:54,680 --> 00:09:56,560 to these late season storms? 318 00:09:56,560 --> 00:09:58,640 That's the second key ingredient. 319 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,440 In November, the wind patterns over the Caribbean 320 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:02,640 start to change. 321 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,640 The trade winds, which usually blow from east to west, 322 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,360 they can weaken. 323 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,600 Or they become more variable. 324 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,240 And this weakening, it allows these areas 325 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:13,880 of low pressure to develop. 326 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:14,720 Right. 327 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,320 And that's where things can start to spin up 328 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,200 into a tropical cyclone. 329 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,440 So it's at the warm water, plus those shifting wind patterns. 330 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:25,320 Exactly, it's the perfect recipe for a late season storm. 331 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,240 It's like Mother Nature's throwing us a curve ball. 332 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:28,080 Right. 333 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:29,520 Just when we think hurricane season's over. 334 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:30,400 Exactly. 335 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,200 What about the other areas the NHC is monitoring? 336 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,200 The one near Puerto Rico and the one in the North Atlantic. 337 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,320 Are those likely to cause any trouble? 338 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,000 OK, so the system near Puerto Rico, 339 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,320 it's bringing some heavy rain to the region. 340 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:43,840 OK. 341 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,840 But thankfully, it has a very low chance 342 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:48,800 of developing into anything significant. 343 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:49,320 Good. 344 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,520 In fact, that pasted text source we were looking at earlier, 345 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,720 it suggests this system might actually 346 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,960 get absorbed by the larger low pressure area in the Caribbean. 347 00:10:57,960 --> 00:10:58,560 Oh, wow. 348 00:10:58,560 --> 00:10:59,960 You know, the one we've been focusing on. 349 00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:00,480 The main one. 350 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,720 Yeah, it's like this bigger system's flexing its muscles, 351 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,840 swallowing up the smaller one. 352 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:07,360 I like that visual. 353 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,000 It happens sometimes in the tropics. 354 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,520 You see these multiple areas of disturbed weather 355 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:12,520 they're interacting. 356 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:12,800 Right. 357 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:14,600 Sometimes they merge and strengthen. 358 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,640 Other times they just kind of fizzle out. 359 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:17,760 Fascinating. 360 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:19,600 It's all part of this, I don't know, 361 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,520 this complex dance of atmospheric forces. 362 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:23,080 Exactly. 363 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:24,360 It's a delicate balance. 364 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,920 And what about that system in the North Atlantic? 365 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:28,880 The one that could become subtropical. 366 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:30,120 That one's a bit more interesting. 367 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:30,560 OK. 368 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:35,720 It's located a few hundred miles west, north, west of the Azores. 369 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,960 It's got a moderate chance of developing, 370 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,720 maybe even into a tropical storm. 371 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:41,400 Interesting thing. 372 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:42,680 But here's the good news. 373 00:11:42,680 --> 00:11:45,480 It's not expected to impact land. 374 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:46,000 Oh, OK. 375 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,560 So no threat to the US east coast or Europe? 376 00:11:48,560 --> 00:11:49,800 Not at this time. 377 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,280 The models are showing it moving generally east-south-eastward 378 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,400 over the open ocean. 379 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:54,800 OK. 380 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:55,920 Good to know. 381 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,440 So it sounds like for now all eyes are on this Caribbean system. 382 00:11:59,440 --> 00:11:59,920 Definitely. 383 00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:02,920 And we need to keep watching it closely over the next few days 384 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:04,200 as it moves toward the Gulf. 385 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:04,680 Right. 386 00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:06,800 Even though the current thinking is 387 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,520 that it's unlikely to become a major hurricane. 388 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,520 Yeah, the models are suggesting that. 389 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:12,120 Right. 390 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:16,440 But we can't totally rule out the possibility of it strengthening 391 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:17,680 once it enters the Gulf. 392 00:12:17,680 --> 00:12:18,680 You're absolutely right. 393 00:12:18,680 --> 00:12:19,720 We can't get complacent. 394 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:20,040 Yeah. 395 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,960 The Gulf of Mexico, it's like this giant warm bath 396 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:24,280 for these systems. 397 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:24,720 Right. 398 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,120 That warm water can give them a real energy boost. 399 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,480 Especially if other conditions are favorable, 400 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,560 things can intensify pretty rapidly. 401 00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:37,560 So given all this uncertainty, what should people living 402 00:12:37,560 --> 00:12:41,440 along the Gulf Coast be doing right now to prepare? 403 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:42,840 What are the essential steps? 404 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:43,160 OK. 405 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,120 So the most important thing is to stay informed and be prepared. 406 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:47,720 OK. 407 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:49,680 That means monitoring the forecasts 408 00:12:49,680 --> 00:12:51,160 from the National Hurricane Center. 409 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:52,160 Of course, they're the experts. 410 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:52,800 It takes time. 411 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,200 NOAA, the National Weather Service, 412 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,240 make sure you have a hurricane plan in place. 413 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:57,880 Uh-huh. 414 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,640 And check your emergency kit. 415 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:01,280 Make sure it's stocked and ready to go. 416 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:01,880 Absolutely. 417 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:03,760 Those are all crucial steps for anyone 418 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:05,680 living in a hurricane-prone area. 419 00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:06,400 For sure. 420 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,760 But what about those of us who maybe 421 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,120 aren't right in the path of this potential storm? 422 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:12,560 Yeah. 423 00:13:12,560 --> 00:13:14,120 Should we still be concerned? 424 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,600 It's always a good idea to be aware of what's 425 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,240 happening in the tropics, even if you don't live right 426 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:20,120 on the coast. 427 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:20,440 OK. 428 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,280 These storms can have far-reaching impacts. 429 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:23,760 That's true. 430 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,480 They can disrupt, travel, cause price increases 431 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,080 for things like gas and groceries. 432 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:28,320 Right. 433 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:29,480 Supply chain issues. 434 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:29,880 Exactly. 435 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,000 We saw that with the pandemic. 436 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:31,840 Yeah, exactly. 437 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,760 We live in an interconnected world. 438 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:34,400 We do. 439 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,400 And these events, they can ripple outwards in ways 440 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,120 we might not even expect. 441 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:40,520 Yeah, that's a great point. 442 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,520 We might not feel the direct impact of the wind and rain, 443 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,800 but we could still feel the economic or logistical effects. 444 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:47,720 Exactly. 445 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,640 It's a reminder that we're all connected 446 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,240 in this global system. 447 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:52,280 We are all connected. 448 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,240 And, you know, even if this particular system doesn't 449 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,520 directly impact us, it's a good reminder 450 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,240 that hurricane season is still ongoing. 451 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:01,840 It is. 452 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,640 And we need to be prepared no matter where we live. 453 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:04,240 Absolutely. 454 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:05,600 Preparedness is key. 455 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:06,880 Well said. 456 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,000 And speaking of preparedness, I think it's time we shift gears 457 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:10,280 a bit. 458 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:10,640 OK. 459 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,560 Talk about some specific steps that people can take 460 00:14:14,560 --> 00:14:17,560 to protect themselves and their property from hurricanes. 461 00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:18,680 Uh-huh. 462 00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:20,720 You mentioned having some practical tips earlier. 463 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:21,480 I do. 464 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,520 So what are some things people can do right now 465 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,480 to get ready just in case this system in the Gulf 466 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,760 decides to throw us a curveball? 467 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:30,880 I'm ready to share them. 468 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:31,360 Great. 469 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:32,000 Let's hear it. 470 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:32,280 All right. 471 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:33,840 Let's dive into those practical tips. 472 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:34,160 Perfect. 473 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,000 I know our listeners are eager to hear them. 474 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,920 So first things first, everybody needs a hurricane plan. 475 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:40,280 OK. 476 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,440 And I don't mean just, you know, a vague idea 477 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,120 of what you might do if a storm hits. 478 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:44,560 Right. 479 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,520 I'm talking about an actual written plan, something 480 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:49,960 you've gone over with your family, your housemates, 481 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:51,000 whoever you live with. 482 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:51,640 Right. 483 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,000 This plan should include things like, you know, 484 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:58,480 evacuation routes, meeting places, contact information 485 00:14:58,480 --> 00:14:59,720 for important people. 486 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:00,480 Yeah, that makes sense. 487 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,280 You know, just in case you get separated. 488 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:02,520 Right. 489 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,800 Having a plan in place can really help 490 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:06,960 to reduce that stress and confusion 491 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,600 if a storm actually does hit. 492 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:09,560 Absolutely. 493 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,120 It's like having a roadmap for navigating all the chaos. 494 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,040 Exactly. 495 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,120 Next up, the emergency kit. 496 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:16,680 Oh, yeah. 497 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:17,560 That's crucial. 498 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,360 This is something everyone should have ready year round. 499 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:20,760 Right. 500 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:22,320 Not just during hurricane season. 501 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:24,160 Make sure it's got at least three days worth 502 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:25,680 of non-perishable food and water. 503 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:26,200 OK. 504 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,960 A first aid kit, flashlights, batteries. 505 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:30,720 Ah. 506 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,160 Battery powered radio, any essential medications 507 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:34,840 you might need. 508 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,440 And don't forget a can opener. 509 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,240 Oh, yes. 510 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:39,280 The can opener. 511 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:40,760 So many people forget about that. 512 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:41,920 It's essential. 513 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:42,520 It really is. 514 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,040 It's those little things that can make a big difference. 515 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:45,520 Absolutely. 516 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,080 OK, so food, water, first aid, can opener. 517 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,280 Now, if you live in an area that's prone to flooding, 518 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,280 think about having sandbags on hand. 519 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:55,440 Right, to protect your property. 520 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,480 And if you have a generator, make sure it's in good working 521 00:15:58,480 --> 00:15:58,960 order. 522 00:15:58,960 --> 00:15:59,280 Right. 523 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,800 And you've got enough fuel to keep it running. 524 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:03,480 Those are all great practical tips. 525 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:03,880 Yeah. 526 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:05,960 But what about, I don't know, the mental and emotional side 527 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:06,480 of things? 528 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:07,480 Oh, absolutely. 529 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,040 Hurricanes can be pretty scary. 530 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:10,600 They are. 531 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,520 Especially if you've lived through a bad one before. 532 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:13,120 Right. 533 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:17,160 It's not just about boarding up the windows and having supplies. 534 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:18,200 No, not at all. 535 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,120 Hurricanes can be incredibly stressful, both before 536 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:23,280 and after they hit. 537 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:23,920 Right. 538 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,280 Taking care of your mental health during these times 539 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:27,680 is so important. 540 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:28,520 It really is. 541 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,600 Talk to your loved ones, stay informed. 542 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:36,000 And don't hesitate to seek professional help if you need it. 543 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,600 It's so easy to get caught up in all the logistics 544 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,720 of preparing for a storm. 545 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:41,280 Right. 546 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,320 And forget about the emotional toll it can take. 547 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,200 Yeah, it's important to acknowledge that. 548 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:46,800 Taking care of your mental well-being 549 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,720 is just as important as all those physical preparations. 550 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:50,520 Couldn't agree more. 551 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,160 Oh, and what about our furry family members? 552 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,160 Yes. 553 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:55,760 The pets. 554 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:56,920 We can't forget about them. 555 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,800 Make sure you have a plan for them too. 556 00:16:58,800 --> 00:16:59,560 OK, good point. 557 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,200 Enough food, water, any medications they might need. 558 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,280 They depend on us to keep them safe. 559 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:06,160 They do. 560 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:07,480 Our pets are part of the family. 561 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:08,640 We can't leave them behind. 562 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:09,360 Exactly. 563 00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:11,800 And one last thing I want to emphasize the importance 564 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,000 of staying informed. 565 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:13,680 Yes. 566 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,000 Pay attention to the forecasts from the National Hurricane 567 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:17,440 Center. 568 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,000 Right, NOAA. 569 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:20,160 Your local officials. 570 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,800 They are the best sources of information. 571 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,640 Don't rely on social media. 572 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:25,240 Oh, good point. 573 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,200 Because that can be inaccurate, misleading. 574 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,520 Yeah, social media can be a bit of a wild west 575 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:32,760 when it comes to these things. 576 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,400 Stick to the official sources. 577 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:35,360 Solid advice. 578 00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:36,720 So if you're told to evacuate. 579 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:37,680 Yes. 580 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:38,960 Please, please do it. 581 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:39,800 Please do. 582 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,440 Don't try to ride out the storm. 583 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:42,920 Your safety is paramount. 584 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,560 Absolutely. 585 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,960 OK, so we've learned a lot today about this tropical system 586 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,600 brewing in the Caribbean. 587 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,760 It could enter the Gulf of Mexico. 588 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:52,600 Could. 589 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,320 And while the forecasts are suggesting, 590 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,960 it probably won't become a major hurricane. 591 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:57,440 Right. 592 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,920 It's always best to be prepared, right? 593 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:00,840 Always. 594 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,000 We've talked about having a plan, an emergency kit, 595 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,920 taking care of ourselves, our loved ones, and our pets. 596 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,880 It's all about being proactive. 597 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:09,720 It really is. 598 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,920 You know, the tropics can be unpredictable, 599 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:13,960 even if this particular system doesn't 600 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:15,400 turn into a major threat. 601 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:15,960 Right. 602 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:17,760 It's a good reminder that we need 603 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,160 to be ready for whatever mother nature might throw our way. 604 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,000 That is a perfect takeaway. 605 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,040 Well, thanks for joining us on this deep dive 606 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,040 into the world of tropical meteorology. 607 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:28,240 It was my pleasure. 608 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:54,320 Until next time, stay safe, stay informed, and stay curious.