All right, so let's dive right in.
Hurricane season, it's November,
and you'd think things would be calming down, but...
Well, yeah, you would think.
The tropics seem to have other plans,
especially down there in the Caribbean.
We've got this new system brewing,
everyone's talking about it, asking about it,
and frankly, I get it, there are a lot of questions right now.
Like, will this fizzle out?
Or could it actually become something more serious?
And where is it gonna go?
Yeah, the big question.
Some folks even saying the Gulf of Mexico might be in play.
Yeah, that's definitely got some people worried,
especially this late in the year.
I mean, I remember Hurricane Nicole last year.
Oh, yeah.
November hurricanes, they're rare.
Right.
But clearly not impossible.
No, not at all.
So, all right, let's break it down.
You've been looking into this.
Yeah, so as of today, November 1st.
2024.
2024, that's right.
The National Hurricane Center.
The NHC, yeah.
Keeping an eye on not one, not two.
But three areas in the Atlantic.
Yeah, three areas for potential tropical development.
Three.
Wow, okay, so tell me about these areas, what have we got?
All right, so we've got this tropical weather outlook
and this article from weather.com.
The one that's really catching everyone's eye
is down in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Okay.
It's got a pretty high chance of developing
like 80% in the next week.
80%, whoa, that's pretty high.
Yeah, that's significant.
Okay, so that's one, what about the other two?
Okay, so one's hanging out near Puerto Rico,
but it's got a very low chance of developing.
Okay, good.
So we're not too worried about that one.
Okay.
And then there's another system,
way out in the North Atlantic,
and it has a moderate chance of becoming,
well, either subtropical or tropical.
Interesting.
But really honestly, it's that Caribbean system.
Yeah.
That's the one that has everyone on edge.
Okay, I can see why.
80% chance of development, that sounds, well,
kind of serious.
Yeah, it definitely has the potential.
So help me understand this, when they say 80%,
what does that actually mean?
Good question.
And like, why is it so hard to predict
what these tropical systems are gonna do,
especially this late in the year?
Right.
Yeah, so those percentages,
they represent the likelihood of the system developing
into, well, at least a tropical depression,
or stronger within a certain time period,
in this case, seven days.
Okay.
And the NHC, they use, well, they use all sorts of things,
sophisticated computer models, historical data,
and of course, their own expert analysis,
to come up with those probabilities.
So it's not like they're just throwing darts at a board.
Oh, absolutely not, no.
But predicting tropical systems,
especially in November, it's tricky.
It's like, trying to nail jelly to a wall.
I can imagine.
You've got so many different factors at play.
You've got cold fronts moving through,
upper level disturbances,
and those can really mess things up.
Then you've got wind shear,
which can basically just rip a storm apart.
Oh, wow.
Dry air, and then the gulf waters,
they're starting to cool down.
Oh, right, of course.
All these things can really affect
whether a storm forms or fizzles out.
Right, so lots of moving parts.
Yeah, lots of variables.
And trying to predict what this particular system
is gonna do, it's a real challenge.
Oh, definitely.
You mentioned upper level disturbances.
What exactly are those?
Oh, great question.
So upper level disturbances,
they're like these,
well, think of them like ripples in the wind patterns
up high in the atmosphere.
Like waves in the jet stream.
Got it.
And sometimes these disturbances,
they can interact with the lower levels of the atmosphere,
where those tropical systems form.
And if the conditions are right,
they can actually help a system to develop.
Give it spin, give it lift.
Interesting.
But sometimes they can do the opposite.
Oh, really?
They can actually prevent a storm from forming,
or even weaken one that's already there.
So they can either help or hurt.
Exactly, it all depends on how they interact
with the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Wow, that's fascinating.
But let's get back to this Caribbean system.
Why should our listener be particularly interested
in this one?
What's at stake here
if it actually enters the Gulf of Mexico?
Yeah, that's the big question, right?
Well, even if the system stays relatively weak,
you know, its presence in the Gulf
can still disrupt things.
It can disrupt offshore oil and gas production.
Oh, of course.
Which, you know, could lead to price increases,
at least temporarily.
Yeah, yeah, that makes sense.
Plus, depending on its path and how strong it gets,
there's always the risk of heavy rain,
strong winds, coastal flooding,
especially for areas along the Gulf Coast
that are, well, you know,
still recovering from past hurricanes.
Right, right, still very vulnerable.
Absolutely.
And talking about all this uncertainty around its path
and that pasted tech source you sent over,
it really highlighted that.
It said the computer models,
they mostly agree that this system's gonna move
into the Gulf of Mexico.
Right, probably sometime around Thursday.
Okay, so Thursday.
But the thing is, there's no consensus
on how strong it's gonna be by then.
Right.
It could be a tropical depression,
a tropical storm, or something else entirely.
Yeah, who knows?
Exactly.
It's like, this system's playing a game of tropical roulette.
You just don't know what you're gonna get.
I like that tropical roulette.
That's what makes it so fascinating
and kind of nerve-wracking to follow.
Totally.
So imagine this, we've got this swirling mass
of clouds and thunderstorms down there in the Caribbean.
It's slowly drifting north.
Who knows if it's gaining strength or fizzling out.
Right.
And then, bam, it enters the Gulf.
It's a meteorological mystery.
Totally, unfolding right before our eyes.
And you know what's interesting?
This isn't totally unusual for November.
Oh, really?
According to that weather.com article,
the Western Caribbean is actually a bit of a hotspot
for late season tropical development.
Hmm, I never knew that.
It's true.
I always thought hurricane season
was basically over by November.
That's a common misconception.
Guess I was wrong.
Yeah, it's true.
The peak of hurricane season is in September,
but we can absolutely still get tropical storms
and even hurricanes in November.
Just look at last year, 2022.
Oh, right.
That was a crazy November, wasn't it?
It was.
We had hurricanes Lisa, Martin, and Nicole
all forming in November.
Wow, I almost forgot about those.
And remember, Nicole even made landfall in Florida.
Oh, yeah.
In a category one hurricane.
Wow.
So yeah, even though it's rare,
a November hurricane making landfall in the mainland US,
it's definitely possible.
All right, so back to our current system,
the one potentially swirling towards the Gulf.
Any indication yet of which direction
it might head once it gets there?
It's still early.
Sure.
The models are showing a bunch of possibilities
and they're not all in agreement yet.
Yeah.
Some suggest it could curve north
towards the Louisiana or Texas coast.
While others are showing it staying further south,
maybe impacting Mexico.
Are you in Cuba?
So lots of uncertainty still.
What about intensity?
Any chance this thing could turn into a major hurricane?
Well, the good news is most of the models
are suggesting it'll likely stay relatively weak.
You're kidding, that's good.
The water temperatures in the Gulf
this time of year are cooler.
And we've got that wind shear increasing.
Those things should help keep it in check.
That is a relief.
But even a weaker system can still bring
some heavy rain and wind, right?
Absolutely.
It's important to remember that even a tropical storm
or a weak hurricane can still cause significant damage,
especially if it stalls out over an area
or moves really slowly.
Okay, so to recap, we've got a system in the Caribbean,
high chance of development,
a path that's uncertain could enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Right.
But most likely it's gonna stay relatively weak.
That's what the models are suggesting, at least for now.
Okay, so it sounds like we just gotta keep
watching those forecasts.
Definitely.
See how things play out.
Absolutely, it'll be interesting to see
what happens over the next few days.
Yeah, I'm sure we'll have plenty more to discuss
as this system evolves.
I'm sure we will.
All right, folks, so that's it for part one
of our deep dive into this, well,
this intriguing tropical system.
Uh-huh.
Make sure to stick around for part two.
Yeah, we'll be back.
We'll be delving deeper into the factors
that influence hurricane development.
Right.
We'll explore some historical examples
of these late season storms.
Yeah.
And we'll talk about what you can do
to stay safe and prepared.
Exactly.
No matter what this system decides to do.
That's right.
So stay tuned.
Welcome back.
All right, so before we went to break,
we were talking about this tropical system.
Right.
Down in the Caribbean,
with its sites potentially set on the Gulf of Mexico.
Uh-huh.
And, you know, we talked about how
it's kind of playing this game of will it or won't it.
Right, exactly.
With its intensity.
It's like, will it become a hurricane
or will it just stay a tropical storm or depression?
Right.
And we know even weaker systems
can still cause a lot of problems.
Perhaps.
You know, heavy rain, wind, flooding, all that.
For sure.
So I'm still curious,
what makes the Western Caribbean
such a, I don't know, like a prime location
for tropical development this late in the year.
It's like, that area just seems to have a knack
for brewing of these late season surprises.
Right.
Like a cauldron,
just waiting for the right conditions
to spark something up.
I like that.
A cauldron of tropical ingredients.
And there are a couple of key factors at play here.
Okay.
First, the water temperatures in the Western Caribbean,
they stay relatively warm even into November.
Okay, that makes sense.
You know, warm water, that's the fuel for hurricanes.
Right, of course.
As long as those temperatures
stay above 80 degrees Fahrenheit,
there's potential for a system to develop.
So the water's still warm enough, even now.
Yeah, even in November.
Okay, but what else is going on up there
in the atmosphere that's contributing
to these late season storms?
That's the second key ingredient.
In November, the wind patterns over the Caribbean
start to change.
The trade winds, which usually blow from east to west,
they can weaken.
Or they become more variable.
And this weakening, it allows these areas
of low pressure to develop.
Right.
And that's where things can start to spin up
into a tropical cyclone.
So it's at the warm water, plus those shifting wind patterns.
Exactly, it's the perfect recipe for a late season storm.
It's like Mother Nature's throwing us a curve ball.
Right.
Just when we think hurricane season's over.
Exactly.
What about the other areas the NHC is monitoring?
The one near Puerto Rico and the one in the North Atlantic.
Are those likely to cause any trouble?
OK, so the system near Puerto Rico,
it's bringing some heavy rain to the region.
OK.
But thankfully, it has a very low chance
of developing into anything significant.
Good.
In fact, that pasted text source we were looking at earlier,
it suggests this system might actually
get absorbed by the larger low pressure area in the Caribbean.
Oh, wow.
You know, the one we've been focusing on.
The main one.
Yeah, it's like this bigger system's flexing its muscles,
swallowing up the smaller one.
I like that visual.
It happens sometimes in the tropics.
You see these multiple areas of disturbed weather
they're interacting.
Right.
Sometimes they merge and strengthen.
Other times they just kind of fizzle out.
Fascinating.
It's all part of this, I don't know,
this complex dance of atmospheric forces.
Exactly.
It's a delicate balance.
And what about that system in the North Atlantic?
The one that could become subtropical.
That one's a bit more interesting.
OK.
It's located a few hundred miles west, north, west of the Azores.
It's got a moderate chance of developing,
maybe even into a tropical storm.
Interesting thing.
But here's the good news.
It's not expected to impact land.
Oh, OK.
So no threat to the US east coast or Europe?
Not at this time.
The models are showing it moving generally east-south-eastward
over the open ocean.
OK.
Good to know.
So it sounds like for now all eyes are on this Caribbean system.
Definitely.
And we need to keep watching it closely over the next few days
as it moves toward the Gulf.
Right.
Even though the current thinking is
that it's unlikely to become a major hurricane.
Yeah, the models are suggesting that.
Right.
But we can't totally rule out the possibility of it strengthening
once it enters the Gulf.
You're absolutely right.
We can't get complacent.
Yeah.
The Gulf of Mexico, it's like this giant warm bath
for these systems.
Right.
That warm water can give them a real energy boost.
Especially if other conditions are favorable,
things can intensify pretty rapidly.
So given all this uncertainty, what should people living
along the Gulf Coast be doing right now to prepare?
What are the essential steps?
OK.
So the most important thing is to stay informed and be prepared.
OK.
That means monitoring the forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center.
Of course, they're the experts.
It takes time.
NOAA, the National Weather Service,
make sure you have a hurricane plan in place.
Uh-huh.
And check your emergency kit.
Make sure it's stocked and ready to go.
Absolutely.
Those are all crucial steps for anyone
living in a hurricane-prone area.
For sure.
But what about those of us who maybe
aren't right in the path of this potential storm?
Yeah.
Should we still be concerned?
It's always a good idea to be aware of what's
happening in the tropics, even if you don't live right
on the coast.
OK.
These storms can have far-reaching impacts.
That's true.
They can disrupt, travel, cause price increases
for things like gas and groceries.
Right.
Supply chain issues.
Exactly.
We saw that with the pandemic.
Yeah, exactly.
We live in an interconnected world.
We do.
And these events, they can ripple outwards in ways
we might not even expect.
Yeah, that's a great point.
We might not feel the direct impact of the wind and rain,
but we could still feel the economic or logistical effects.
Exactly.
It's a reminder that we're all connected
in this global system.
We are all connected.
And, you know, even if this particular system doesn't
directly impact us, it's a good reminder
that hurricane season is still ongoing.
It is.
And we need to be prepared no matter where we live.
Absolutely.
Preparedness is key.
Well said.
And speaking of preparedness, I think it's time we shift gears
a bit.
OK.
Talk about some specific steps that people can take
to protect themselves and their property from hurricanes.
Uh-huh.
You mentioned having some practical tips earlier.
I do.
So what are some things people can do right now
to get ready just in case this system in the Gulf
decides to throw us a curveball?
I'm ready to share them.
Great.
Let's hear it.
All right.
Let's dive into those practical tips.
Perfect.
I know our listeners are eager to hear them.
So first things first, everybody needs a hurricane plan.
OK.
And I don't mean just, you know, a vague idea
of what you might do if a storm hits.
Right.
I'm talking about an actual written plan, something
you've gone over with your family, your housemates,
whoever you live with.
Right.
This plan should include things like, you know,
evacuation routes, meeting places, contact information
for important people.
Yeah, that makes sense.
You know, just in case you get separated.
Right.
Having a plan in place can really help
to reduce that stress and confusion
if a storm actually does hit.
Absolutely.
It's like having a roadmap for navigating all the chaos.
Exactly.
Next up, the emergency kit.
Oh, yeah.
That's crucial.
This is something everyone should have ready year round.
Right.
Not just during hurricane season.
Make sure it's got at least three days worth
of non-perishable food and water.
OK.
A first aid kit, flashlights, batteries.
Ah.
Battery powered radio, any essential medications
you might need.
And don't forget a can opener.
Oh, yes.
The can opener.
So many people forget about that.
It's essential.
It really is.
It's those little things that can make a big difference.
Absolutely.
OK, so food, water, first aid, can opener.
Now, if you live in an area that's prone to flooding,
think about having sandbags on hand.
Right, to protect your property.
And if you have a generator, make sure it's in good working
order.
Right.
And you've got enough fuel to keep it running.
Those are all great practical tips.
Yeah.
But what about, I don't know, the mental and emotional side
of things?
Oh, absolutely.
Hurricanes can be pretty scary.
They are.
Especially if you've lived through a bad one before.
Right.
It's not just about boarding up the windows and having supplies.
No, not at all.
Hurricanes can be incredibly stressful, both before
and after they hit.
Right.
Taking care of your mental health during these times
is so important.
It really is.
Talk to your loved ones, stay informed.
And don't hesitate to seek professional help if you need it.
It's so easy to get caught up in all the logistics
of preparing for a storm.
Right.
And forget about the emotional toll it can take.
Yeah, it's important to acknowledge that.
Taking care of your mental well-being
is just as important as all those physical preparations.
Couldn't agree more.
Oh, and what about our furry family members?
Yes.
The pets.
We can't forget about them.
Make sure you have a plan for them too.
OK, good point.
Enough food, water, any medications they might need.
They depend on us to keep them safe.
They do.
Our pets are part of the family.
We can't leave them behind.
Exactly.
And one last thing I want to emphasize the importance
of staying informed.
Yes.
Pay attention to the forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center.
Right, NOAA.
Your local officials.
They are the best sources of information.
Don't rely on social media.
Oh, good point.
Because that can be inaccurate, misleading.
Yeah, social media can be a bit of a wild west
when it comes to these things.
Stick to the official sources.
Solid advice.
So if you're told to evacuate.
Yes.
Please, please do it.
Please do.
Don't try to ride out the storm.
Your safety is paramount.
Absolutely.
OK, so we've learned a lot today about this tropical system
brewing in the Caribbean.
It could enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Could.
And while the forecasts are suggesting,
it probably won't become a major hurricane.
Right.
It's always best to be prepared, right?
Always.
We've talked about having a plan, an emergency kit,
taking care of ourselves, our loved ones, and our pets.
It's all about being proactive.
It really is.
You know, the tropics can be unpredictable,
even if this particular system doesn't
turn into a major threat.
Right.
It's a good reminder that we need
to be ready for whatever mother nature might throw our way.
That is a perfect takeaway.
Well, thanks for joining us on this deep dive
into the world of tropical meteorology.
It was my pleasure.
Until next time, stay safe, stay informed, and stay curious.