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All right, everybody, welcome back to the show, ready to dive in.

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Always.

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What do we got today?

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Well, today we're thinking about Florida real estate.

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Oh, sunshine and beaches, what could be better?

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Right, but we're not exactly talking about the postcard version of Florida today.

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Uh-oh, what's the catch?

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We're diving deep into what happens after a hurricane hits.

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Ah, I see, so after Helene and Milton.

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Exactly, those two really shook things up.

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Got your snorkel ready.

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Uh-huh, ready to get soaked in some data, let's do it.

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Okay, so I always hear this idea about hurricane discounts on properties.

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Oh yeah, by low, everyone loves a deal.

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Right, but is it actually a smart move?

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Well, we've got a stack of articles here and honestly, it paints a pretty complex picture.

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Yeah, that's what I figured.

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So we're taking Tampa Bay as our case study today, right?

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Right, but the trends we're seeing, you know, from MarketWatch to those academic journals,

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it's all pretty consistent across hurricane prone areas.

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So Helene slams into Tampa Bay, was it category four?

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Yeah, category four, no joke.

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And suddenly boom, for sale, signs everywhere.

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Like mushrooms after a rain, right?

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Exactly, so is it heartbroken families or?

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Well, that's the thing, a lot of those signs, they're not from families at all.

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Really, so who are they from then?

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Investors mostly.

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Yeah.

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John Burns, Real Estate Consulting, they're predicting a massive wave of investor activity

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in Tampa after Helene.

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Okay, so how massive are we talking?

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They're saying upwards of 60% of sales in some hard hit neighborhoods could be investors.

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60%, wow, that's intense.

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And usually it's what, like 20%?

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Yeah, something like that in a typical year.

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So yeah, big difference.

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Okay, so what are these like investor sharks seeing that us regular folks are missing?

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Well, first off, insurance.

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MarketWatch is just full of stories about homeowners who were, well, let's just say

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underinsured, especially for flooding.

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Right, because even if I find some amazing beachfront condo, like super cheap.

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If you can't get insurance or if those premiums are insane, then what good is the deal?

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Right, exactly.

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It's not a steal if you can't afford to actually live there.

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And those premiums, oh, they're skyrocketing.

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And it's not just the hurricane risk either.

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Oh, right, because we have to factor in, what was it, that condo collapse?

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Exactly, that condo collapse a few years back.

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New regulations mean higher insurance costs for everyone, which of course gets passed

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onto the buyer.

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Right, of course.

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So yeah, it's a bit of a trap, honestly.

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Low sell price upfront that bam, slammed with insurance, potential future damage.

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Yeah, starting to see why people might be hesitant.

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And don't even get me started on repairs.

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Oh, right, because even if I can afford to buy a place outright.

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Those post-hurricane repairs, they add up so fast, John Burns, they estimate the average

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cost to repair a flooded home in Tampa is going to be over $70,000.

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$70,000, wow.

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And that's on top of whatever insurance doesn't cover.

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Yeah.

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Ouch.

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I wonder some homeowners are just throwing in the towel at that point.

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It can be rough for sure.

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I was reading an interview, I think it was in MarketWatch.

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A mortgage broker had clients who just went through two major hurricanes back to back,

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emotionally and financially drained.

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Yeah, I can't even imagine.

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And you know, with climate change, these storms are only going to become more frequent,

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more severe.

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Yeah, that's a point we definitely can't ignore.

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Some people are really starting to question the long-term viability of owning property

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in these areas.

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You know, I can't blame them.

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Totally.

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So it's not just about like, oh, can I snag a good deal?

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It's like, will this deal even be livable, let alone profitable in five, 10 years?

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Exactly, precisely.

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And that's where things get even more complicated because despite all this, despite the hurricanes,

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the insurance, the repairs, there's still this huge demand for Florida real estate.

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Oh, so people are still lining up to buy in Florida, even after all that?

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Oh yeah, absolutely.

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Especially from a particular kind of buyer.

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Okay, so who are these diehard Florida fans?

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Who's still buying?

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Well, we've got two main groups.

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First you've got those who are just like undeterred.

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The risks, the storms, they don't care.

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They want that Florida lifestyle.

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They're like, bring on the hurricanes, I've weathered worse.

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Uh-huh, exactly.

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And they usually have the financial cushion to handle it, right?

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Remember, was it 37% of Tampa homes are bought with cash?

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Yeah, I remember that.

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Crazy.

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This big pool of people ready to just jump in, even if it means riding out a few storms.

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Literally.

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Okay, so that's one group.

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Who else is in the market for hurricane battered properties?

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Well, the investors, of course.

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Oh, right, of course.

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And I'm not just talking retirees looking for a vacation home.

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This is good firms.

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Wall Street money, they swoop in to capitalize on, you know, the chaos.

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And their game plan is, surely they're not planning to just sit on these damaged properties.

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Sit on them, no way.

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They're buying low, gutting, and then rebuilding.

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To more resilient standards, of course, which also means more expensive, and then flipping

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for a profit.

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So it's a classic real estate play, just like amplified by disaster.

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Exactly.

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And history tells us they're not exactly wrong to do this.

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Oh, how so?

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Look at Sanibel Island.

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Devastated by Ian, what was that, two years ago?

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Right, Hurricane Ian.

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Just off.

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Average home values, they plummeted right after, obviously.

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Distressed sales, all that.

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But guess what?

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They've rebounded, like completely, even surpassed pre-Ean levels in some areas.

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Yeah, that's wild.

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So is it a good thing then, like for the people who actually live there?

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It can't be that simple, right?

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Yeah, you hit the nail on the head, it's not that simple.

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Yeah.

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See, if these investors are paying top dollar, even for properties that are, you know, pretty

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messed up, what happens to the folks who live there before?

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Right, the people who maybe can't afford to rebuild or who can't compete with these

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big firms that have tons of money to throw around.

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Exactly.

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And that brings us to what we call the gentrification effect.

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Oh, right, I've heard that term before, but never really knew what it meant.

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What is it?

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Well, after Ian, the Tampa Bay Times, they did a deep dive on this whole thing.

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And what they found was actually really shocking.

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Okay, I'm intrigued.

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Lay it on me.

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So logically, you'd think a hurricane would mean, like, lower property values, right?

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Makes sense, less people want to live in a disaster zone.

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But studies show that often, the exact opposite happens.

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Really, how is that even possible?

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Well, you have less housing supply because a bunch of homes were just destroyed, right?

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But then you combine that with increased demand from investors and even from some residents

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who are determined to stay.

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That combo can actually drive prices up.

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I think the Times found that in some areas after Ian, homes that had those high flood

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insurance claims, they were selling for like 9% higher just a year later.

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9% higher after a hurricane.

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That's insane.

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Yeah, it's crazy.

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But, you know, this isn't just about buying either.

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Slade had a piece about how some landlords, they use this situation, you know, evicting

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long-term tenants so they can charge higher rent.

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Oh, so they take advantage of this situation knowing that wealthier people will come in

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after the hurricane and pay more for those same apartments.

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Sadly, yes.

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So you've got these two sides to the story.

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On one hand, you've got people saying, Florida's resilient, the market always bounces back.

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But on the other, you have this very real problem.

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Where the people who lived there before can't afford to come back.

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So their community is just gone.

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Exactly.

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And it's a cycle that just keeps repeating with every hurricane.

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And, you know, we can't forget, this isn't just about individual properties or individual

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people even really.

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This is about bigger problems.

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Like what?

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Like housing affordability, disaster preparedness, even climate change adaptation.

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Big picture stuff.

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Right.

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So if we zoom out even further then, what does all of this mean for Florida real estate

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in general?

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And are we saying that what, only super rich people are going to be able to afford a place

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on the beach?

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Or is that like overly dramatic?

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I mean, it's a bit of both, honestly.

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I was reading in fortune, they did a whole thing on pending home sales.

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They're up nationally, which makes sense.

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But Florida's coastal cities, they're actually seeing a pretty significant drop.

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Oh, really?

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So people are getting scared off.

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Some are, yeah.

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Especially with those insurance hikes we talked about.

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Yeah.

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I mean, who can blame them?

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Yeah.

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I think I remember reading about some folks getting hit with like a $7,000 insurance bill.

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It's a small place too.

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Oh yeah.

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It's rough out there.

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But then on the other hand, I saw this piece in Business Insider and it profiled this home

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owner.

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They slashed their asking price by like 40% after their house got flooded.

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Oof.

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40%, that's a huge loss.

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Right.

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But get this, they were flooded with calls from investors.

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Like immediately.

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So even with all the risks, people are still drawn to Florida.

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I mean the sunshine, the beaches, I get it.

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It's a powerful draw, for sure.

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So what is it then?

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Is this just a temporary thing?

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Like people are scared right now because we had a couple of bad hurricane seeds, but it

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will blow over.

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Or is the sum going bigger?

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Well that's the million dollar question, isn't it?

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Is climate change finally impacting how we see these at risk areas?

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Right.

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Because on some level, we can't just keep rebuilding the same beachfront condos if they're just

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going to get wiped out again in a few years.

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Exactly.

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Some experts think we're on the verge of a huge shift.

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Like the financial and emotional toll of these disasters, it's finally going to outweigh the

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benefits for a lot of people.

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Especially if those insurance premiums keep going up.

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I mean at some point, it's just not even worth it.

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Exactly.

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But then you've got the other side, the people who say Florida real estate is basically hurricane

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proof that it's weathered storms before and it always bounces back stronger.

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And let's be real, people love sunshine, they love being on the water.

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That's not going to change.

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And it's not just the people, right?

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Didn't Slate talk about government policies that kind of prop up this whole system?

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Right.

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Like subsidized flood insurance, disaster relief, all of that.

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It creates this weird situation where the true cost of living in these risky areas, it's

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kind of hidden.

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So are we saying it's a gamble either way?

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Like buy now and hook for the best or stay away and risk missing out if Florida does have

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another comeback?

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You know, I think it's less about gambling and more about asking ourselves the right

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questions.

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But instead of just looking at individual properties and trying to make a quick buck,

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what if we thought about rebuilding after these hurricanes differently?

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Differentially how?

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Like what are we talking about here?

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Yeah.

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Like instead of it being every homeowner for themselves after a hurricane, scrambling

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to rebuild, what if the community like actually came together?

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Okay.

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Yeah.

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I'm listening.

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Paint me a picture.

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What does that look like?

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So imagine a hurricane hits, right?

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Devastation.

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They're freaking out, they get organized, they figure out what resources they have,

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who needs what, and then they get creative.

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Creative how?

253
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Give me an example.

254
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What are we talking about here?

255
00:10:44,620 --> 00:10:45,620
Well, take housing, right?

256
00:10:45,620 --> 00:10:46,620
Yeah.

257
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Because that's the big one.

258
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Instead of just rebuilding the same houses in the same spots just as vulnerable as before.

259
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Right.

260
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Which we know is a recipe for disaster.

261
00:10:54,300 --> 00:10:55,300
Exactly.

262
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They explore other options like community land trusts.

263
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Community land trusts.

264
00:11:01,380 --> 00:11:02,380
Okay.

265
00:11:02,380 --> 00:11:03,380
Now you've got my attention.

266
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I'm going to go through those.

267
00:11:04,380 --> 00:11:06,460
So basically it's this nonprofit, right?

268
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And they own the land.

269
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Then they lease out the houses on that land, but at affordable rates.

270
00:11:12,500 --> 00:11:13,500
Oh, interesting.

271
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So instead of individuals bearing the burden of owning this potentially risky property.

272
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It's shared.

273
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Shared risk, shared responsibility.

274
00:11:21,660 --> 00:11:22,660
Exactly.

275
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And it helps keep housing affordable, especially for those long-term residents who maybe couldn't

276
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afford to rebuild on their own.

277
00:11:28,980 --> 00:11:29,980
Right.

278
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Because they're not competing with wealthy investors or whatever.

279
00:11:33,340 --> 00:11:34,420
Exactly.

280
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And it opens up opportunities for better building practices too.

281
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Like actually hurricane resistant homes, flood proof foundations.

282
00:11:42,260 --> 00:11:43,260
Oh yeah.

283
00:11:43,260 --> 00:11:44,260
That makes sense.

284
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If the community is invested in these buildings, they'll want to make sure they're built to

285
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last.

286
00:11:47,540 --> 00:11:48,540
Right.

287
00:11:48,540 --> 00:11:49,940
And those costs, they get spread out.

288
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So it's less of a burden on any one person.

289
00:11:51,900 --> 00:11:52,900
Okay.

290
00:11:52,900 --> 00:11:53,900
I'm seeing how this could work.

291
00:11:53,900 --> 00:11:56,060
It's like thinking bigger than just your own backyard.

292
00:11:56,060 --> 00:11:57,060
Yes.

293
00:11:57,060 --> 00:11:58,460
It's about the entire community.

294
00:11:58,460 --> 00:12:00,460
And it's not just housing either.

295
00:12:00,460 --> 00:12:06,020
But community gardens designed to withstand flooding, shared renewable energy.

296
00:12:06,020 --> 00:12:09,300
It's about making the entire system more resilient.

297
00:12:09,300 --> 00:12:10,700
So it's not just about rebuilding.

298
00:12:10,700 --> 00:12:12,660
It's about building back better.

299
00:12:12,660 --> 00:12:13,660
Yes.

300
00:12:13,660 --> 00:12:15,580
And acknowledging that with climate change and everything.

301
00:12:15,580 --> 00:12:18,060
We really are all in this together.

302
00:12:18,060 --> 00:12:21,420
It's not about abandoning these areas entirely.

303
00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:24,260
More like rethinking how we live in them.

304
00:12:24,260 --> 00:12:25,260
Exactly.

305
00:12:25,260 --> 00:12:26,260
Yes.

306
00:12:26,260 --> 00:12:29,420
So that it's done in a way that's, you know, sustainable and equitable.

307
00:12:29,420 --> 00:12:30,420
Okay.

308
00:12:30,420 --> 00:12:31,420
I love that idea.

309
00:12:31,420 --> 00:12:36,340
Instead of just like reacting to each disaster, what if we planned ahead?

310
00:12:36,340 --> 00:12:40,180
Like what if we took all that money we spend on disaster relief and actually invest of

311
00:12:40,180 --> 00:12:42,860
it in making these communities stronger beforehand?

312
00:12:42,860 --> 00:12:47,620
Well, if we actually were proactive instead of reactive, that's the real opportunity here.

313
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Not just surviving the storm, but actually using it to create a better future.

314
00:12:51,380 --> 00:12:52,380
Yeah.

315
00:12:52,380 --> 00:12:53,380
That's a powerful message.

316
00:12:53,380 --> 00:12:56,820
It really makes you think, well, that's about all the time we have for today.

317
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But wow, lots to think about, right?

318
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Whether you're a homeowner or investor or just someone who, you know, cares about the

319
00:13:02,420 --> 00:13:08,420
future of the planet, this stuff matters because the choices we make, especially after a disaster,

320
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they have these ripple effects.

321
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So keep asking those tough questions and keep the conversation going.

322
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Thanks for diving deep with us today.