1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,640 Okay, so Hurricane Milton's out there. 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,120 And yeah, it's got everybody a little anxious, 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,120 especially with all this talk about potential storm surge. 4 00:00:08,120 --> 00:00:08,960 Yeah, and I get it. 5 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:10,960 It's one of those things about hurricanes, right? 6 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:12,920 You know, it can be a real game changer. 7 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,960 For sure, but that's why we're here to break it all down. 8 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,600 We're gonna dig into the how and the why of storm surge, 9 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,760 look at those projections. 10 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,040 Basically, we're gonna make sense of all this together. 11 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,440 And you know what's so interesting about hurricanes, 12 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,000 especially one like Milton that's still developing? 13 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,600 It's incredible how such a small change in its path 14 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,120 can have a huge impact on the storm surge risk. 15 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,440 It's true, like a hurricane's version of location, 16 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,680 location, location, huh? 17 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:40,760 Exactly. 18 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,000 We could see completely different outcome depending on, 19 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:44,960 you know, just a tiny shift in its path. 20 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,280 Okay, but before we get ahead of ourselves, 21 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,040 let's make sure everyone's on the same page 22 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:50,920 about what storm surge actually is. 23 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:51,760 Right, right. 24 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,440 You know, just in case anyone out there needs 25 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,920 a little refresher on their hurricane lingo. 26 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,320 Sure, so imagine this. 27 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,080 Picture a massive bucket of water, right? 28 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,320 And someone just comes and throws it at the coast. 29 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,960 That's kind of what storm surge is like, 30 00:01:05,960 --> 00:01:08,960 except instead of a bucket, it's the entire ocean 31 00:01:08,960 --> 00:01:11,120 being shoved around by the hurricane's winds. 32 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,200 It combines with the regular tide and bam, 33 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,800 you've got these crazy high water levels 34 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,480 flooding in coastal areas, causing major damage. 35 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,160 And some searches, not something you wanna mess with. 36 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,520 And it reminds me of Hurricane Michael back in 2018. 37 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,240 Now, I know it hit the Florida Panhandle 38 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:29,960 which is a different area than where we're looking 39 00:01:29,960 --> 00:01:32,960 with Milton, but there's a huge lesson from Michael 40 00:01:32,960 --> 00:01:34,480 that applies to what we're talking about. 41 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,200 Oh, absolutely, and you hit the nail on the head there. 42 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,160 You see, it's all about which side of the hurricane you're on 43 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,440 relative to the eye and the direction of the wind. 44 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:42,640 Okay, so explain that. 45 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,160 Why does that make such a difference? 46 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,120 So hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere 47 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,680 spin counterclockwise, right? 48 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,400 On the right side of the storm, the winds are actually 49 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,280 working with the hurricane's movement, 50 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,280 pushing water towards the shore, 51 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,880 which makes that storm surge way worse. 52 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,720 But get this, on the left side, the winds are blowing 53 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,400 against the hurricane's direction. 54 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,120 It's like they're trying to hold the water back. 55 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:06,960 So it's like a giant tug of war 56 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,040 with the coastline caught right in the middle. 57 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:09,880 Exactly. 58 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:11,880 And with Michael, the areas to the left of the eye 59 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,080 dodged a bullet, relatively speaking, 60 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:15,960 they got a much smaller storm surge 61 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,680 because of those offshore winds. 62 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,120 Which brings us to why everyone's so on edge 63 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,840 about Hurricane Milton's projected path, right? 64 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,360 Because even a small shift could be a huge deal. 65 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,760 Exactly, and that's what we're gonna look at next. 66 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,680 Those different potential landfall scenarios. 67 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,520 Okay, so let's get down to the nitty gritty here. 68 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,200 We've got these two possible scenarios, 69 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,520 two potential paths for Hurricane Milton. 70 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,720 What happens if we sort of game these out? 71 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,760 Imagine the impact of each one. 72 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:44,600 Right, so let's do that. 73 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,520 And scenario number one, let's say Milton decides 74 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:49,160 to pay Madeira Beach a visit 75 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,120 just north of the Skyway Bridge. 76 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,520 Scenario two, it's Bradenton Beach just south of that bridge. 77 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:56,160 Now just for this little thought experiment, 78 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,920 we're gonna say Milton's bringing its A-game hits 79 00:02:59,920 --> 00:03:02,440 with that maximum potential surge of 14 feet. 80 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,160 Worst case scenario kind of thing. 81 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,640 But it helps us understand the range of possibilities. 82 00:03:06,640 --> 00:03:08,360 Right, like turning the dial all the way up 83 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,360 to maximum intensity just to really grasp 84 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,000 what we're dealing with. 85 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,240 Okay, so same hurricane, two slightly different paths, 86 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,440 but potentially completely different outcomes. 87 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:19,680 Especially when we start talking about 88 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:21,840 specific spots along the coast. 89 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,800 So let's start with scenario one. 90 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,160 Milton takes aim at Madeira Beach. 91 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,840 Hit me with it, what kind of surge are we looking at 92 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,200 for say Newport Rishi? 93 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,120 So up in Newport Rishi, they're probably looking 94 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,040 at about four feet of surge 95 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:37,680 if Milton makes landfall up by Madeira Beach. 96 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:38,600 Okay. 97 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,120 Now, if we go down south a bit 98 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,840 towards Tarpen Springs Clearwater, that surge, 99 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,200 it gradually increases a bit, five feet, 100 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:47,800 maybe even pushing six feet. 101 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,080 But then things start to get really interesting 102 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:51,680 as we approach St. Pete Beach. 103 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:52,720 Okay, how so? 104 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,600 We could be talking about a surge of 11 feet. 105 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,560 11 feet, wow, now you're getting my attention. 106 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,000 So what does that mean for St. Petersburg itself? 107 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:00,720 Yeah, St. Petersburg's definitely got their eye 108 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:01,560 on those numbers. 109 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:03,440 And for good reason, they'd be looking at about 110 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,360 nine feet of surge in this scenario. 111 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,000 And further into Tampa Bay, 112 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,440 like right around downtown Tampa Harbor Island, 113 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:11,760 they're staring down the barrel 114 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,880 of that maximum 14 foot surge. 115 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,960 Okay, so if this first scenario plays out, 116 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,120 Tampa Bay is looking at some serious flooding. 117 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,920 But what about those areas a little further south 118 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,400 down towards like the Sarasota area, Fort Myers? 119 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:24,640 Do they get a break? 120 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,480 They do see a bit of a decrease, but you know, 121 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:27,480 it's all relative. 122 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Still talking about some big surge levels. 123 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,120 Annamarie Island could see around 13 feet, 124 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,360 Longo Key around 11. 125 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,840 And then as we keep heading south, it starts to taper off. 126 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:38,960 So Venice might see around seven feet 127 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,200 and then way down south on San Paola Island 128 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,280 by Fort Myers, maybe around five. 129 00:04:43,280 --> 00:04:45,520 Okay, so definitely a gradient of impact here. 130 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,240 Even within the same scenario, 131 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,040 the closer you are to that Northern landfall, 132 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:51,960 the higher the potential surge. 133 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,120 All right, let's flip the script scenario too. 134 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,720 Milton sets its sights on Bradenton Beach. 135 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:57,680 What changes? 136 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,280 Well, this is where that counterclockwise rotation 137 00:05:00,280 --> 00:05:02,120 we talked about really comes into play. 138 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,320 Remember how those winds on the left side of the storm 139 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,000 can actually work against the surge? 140 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:06,840 Right. 141 00:05:06,840 --> 00:05:08,880 Well, with a Bradenton Beach landfall, 142 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,160 areas like Newport Rishi, Tarpon Springs, 143 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,520 they're on that quieter side of the storm. 144 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,680 They're breathing a sigh of relief, 145 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:18,560 looking at a much more manageable 146 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:20,640 two to three feet of surge. 147 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,280 Even clear water gets off pretty easy, maybe four feet. 148 00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:25,440 So just by shifting that landfall south 149 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,280 of the Skyway Bridge, those areas go from 150 00:05:28,280 --> 00:05:29,760 a pretty significant surge 151 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,400 to something way less intense. 152 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:32,240 That's right. 153 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,800 And it gets even more dramatic as you look further south. 154 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,840 St. Pete Beach, which was facing 11 feet in our first 155 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:41,200 scenario, now looking at maybe five feet of surge. 156 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,000 St. Petersburg goes from nine feet down to five feet. 157 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,320 It's a huge difference. 158 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:46,160 That's incredible. 159 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:47,880 It really highlights just how crucial 160 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,200 the exact track of the hurricane is. 161 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,440 Seemingly small changes can have this huge impact. 162 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,920 What about the areas south of the Skyway Bridge 163 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,200 that caught a break in that first scenario? 164 00:05:58,200 --> 00:05:59,920 How are they looking in scenario two? 165 00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:02,040 Well, the tables have turned a bit, haven't they? 166 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,280 Now those areas south of the eye are the ones on the side 167 00:06:05,280 --> 00:06:07,920 with those winds pushing the water towards the shore. 168 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:08,740 Yeah. 169 00:06:08,740 --> 00:06:11,600 So it's not a uniform increase, 170 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,800 but they're definitely facing a higher risk now. 171 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,880 And in Maria Island, they're still looking 172 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,440 at a pretty big surge, maybe around eight feet. 173 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,600 Longo Key, though, they jump up from 11 feet 174 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,320 in that first scenario to a potential 13 feet. 175 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,320 So it's like the risk has shifted south 176 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:27,560 along with the landfall. 177 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:28,520 Yeah, exactly. 178 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,440 And that continues as you go down the coast. 179 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,480 Venice, which saw maybe a seven foot surge 180 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,480 with that Madeira Beach landfall, 181 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,520 now they're looking at a potential 10 feet. 182 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,500 Sanibel Island goes from five to a potential seven feet. 183 00:06:40,500 --> 00:06:43,400 So definitely a different picture in scenario two, 184 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,440 especially for those areas further south. 185 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:46,280 Wow. 186 00:06:46,280 --> 00:06:47,880 So two potential paths for Milton, 187 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,280 but what feels like two completely different maps 188 00:06:50,280 --> 00:06:52,240 of potential impact up and down the coast. 189 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,960 It's crazy how much a small change in direction 190 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,600 can influence where those biggest dangers are. 191 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:58,440 It's true. 192 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,240 You know, it's easy to glance at a hurricane map 193 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:01,920 and be like, oh, as long as I'm not right 194 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,000 in the middle of that cone, I'm good. 195 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:04,040 But as we've been seeing, 196 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,900 it's way more complicated than that. 197 00:07:05,900 --> 00:07:08,600 It's not just will it hit, it's how will it hit. 198 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,960 Yeah, especially when you factor in that storm surge. 199 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:11,800 Totally. 200 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaking of which, we keep mentioning this cone 201 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,240 of uncertainty, this phrase. 202 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,160 I think we should probably unpack that a bit. 203 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,280 What does that actually mean for someone at home 204 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,720 who's trying to wrap their head around this storm? 205 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,160 You know, it's funny because that name, 206 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,520 cone of uncertainty, it's kind of misleading. 207 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,240 It's not like the hurricane itself 208 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:30,920 is unsure of where it's going. 209 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:31,760 Right, right. 210 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,680 It's more about the limitations we have 211 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:35,800 in predicting its exact path. 212 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,520 Okay, so it's like a weather forecasting limitation thing. 213 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:40,360 It is. 214 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,400 Think of it like trying to guess 215 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,280 where a leaf will land on a super windy day. 216 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,240 You know, you have a general idea, 217 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,200 but those little gusts can really throw things off. 218 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,040 So the cone gives us a range of possible paths, 219 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,040 but that actual track, you could shift within that cone 220 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,040 and those shifts, even small ones. 221 00:07:58,040 --> 00:07:59,920 Okay, that actually makes a lot more sense. 222 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:01,840 So it's not necessarily about panicking 223 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,720 if you're in the cone, but it's about understanding 224 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,880 that that cone represents a lot of different possibilities. 225 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:08,720 Yeah. 226 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,680 Okay, so let's talk about that surge again. 227 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,080 I wanna make sure we're crystal clear 228 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:16,400 on why it decreases so quickly as you move north of the eye. 229 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:17,840 You move north of the eye, boom, 230 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,880 suddenly that water's not piling up as much. 231 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:21,200 Why is that? 232 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,360 Yeah, it all goes back to that counterclockwise spin. 233 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,240 So on the right side of the storm, 234 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,360 the wind direction and the hurricane's forward motion, 235 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:30,440 they're working together. 236 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:31,760 Like a one-two punch. 237 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,520 Exactly, pushing that water towards the shore, 238 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,640 creating that surge, that huge bulge of water. 239 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:39,440 But as you move to the left side of the eye, 240 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:40,840 the wind direction changes. 241 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:41,680 Right. 242 00:08:41,680 --> 00:08:43,800 Now it's blowing against the hurricane's movement. 243 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:45,840 So instead of piling up the water, 244 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,360 it's actually working to flatten it out, reducing the surge. 245 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,480 So it's like the hurricane is this giant, 246 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:55,200 swirling water pump pushing and pulling at the ocean. 247 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:56,400 That's a great way to put it. 248 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,160 And the closer you are to that central pump, the eye, 249 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:00,840 the more intense those forces are. 250 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,360 Okay, that makes a lot more sense. 251 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,360 So much to think about. 252 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,360 We've covered a lot of ground here, 253 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,960 talking about those potential landfalls, 254 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,360 really dissecting this whole storm surge thing, 255 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,560 and of course, wrestling with that cone of uncertainty. 256 00:09:14,560 --> 00:09:16,880 So as we wrap up, what are the key takeaways 257 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,240 you want our listeners to remember, 258 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,880 especially if they're in a potential impact zone? 259 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,080 Well, first and foremost, stay informed. 260 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,280 Right, of course, yeah. 261 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,440 We've used models, historical data, to paint these scenarios. 262 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,880 But Hurricane Milton is still doing its own thing out there. 263 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:31,720 Right. 264 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:32,640 Check the National Hurricane Center, 265 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,880 get the latest forecasts, see what its track is looking like. 266 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,200 But I think even more important than that, 267 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,720 and this goes beyond just this hurricane, 268 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,720 is that understanding the science behind these storms, 269 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,520 even just a little bit, 270 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,880 can really help you make safer decisions. 271 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,280 It's not just about whether a hurricane is coming, 272 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,560 but how it might impact you specifically. 273 00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:55,280 It's about understanding the nuances 274 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:57,200 where those hidden dangers might be. 275 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,200 Exactly, so pay attention to your local officials 276 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,920 if they issue evacuation orders, listen to them. 277 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,240 Those orders aren't random. 278 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:05,680 Right, it's based on all this stuff 279 00:10:05,680 --> 00:10:06,520 we've been talking about. 280 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,800 It is, this understanding of hurricane behavior, 281 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,120 that storm surge, and yeah, 282 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,760 those potential what if situations we've been discussing. 283 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:16,360 Well said, and on that note, 284 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,440 one last thought for everyone out there to ponder. 285 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,640 We've seen how even the tiniest shift 286 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,920 in a hurricane's track can totally change the situation. 287 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,960 What do you think causes a hurricane to swerve like that, 288 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:29,600 even at the last minute? 289 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,880 What are those little forces that could send Milton 290 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:33,680 on a slightly different path? 291 00:10:33,680 --> 00:10:35,840 Something to think about, stay safe everyone, 292 00:10:35,840 --> 00:11:04,840 and we'll catch you next time.