Right, we're diving into Hurricane Milton down on the gulf right now.
You've sent us some urgent updates on this thing.
Yeah.
And to be honest, it's developing into a, well, yeah, it's not looking good.
Not your typical hurricane at all.
What's really remarkable and well concerning honestly,
it's just how quickly Milton's gaining strength.
Like just hours ago, we were looking at this thing as a tropical storm.
Right.
And now projections have it as a major hurricane,
potentially category three or higher by Monday.
Wow.
So that jump from like, you know, tropical storm to major hurricane,
that's happening really fast.
What is driving that kind of growth spurt?
Basically, it's what we call favorable conditions.
But in this case, they're fueling this, you know, potentially really dangerous storm.
So we're seeing really, really low wind share right now.
Which is basically like a clear path for the storm to develop without being disrupted.
Right.
It's nothing to knock it off its path.
Exactly.
Yeah.
And then you add on top of that, that the water temperatures in the Gulf
are not just warm, but they're record breakingly warm.
Oh, wow.
So think of it this way.
Warmer water equals more energy for the storm to kind of feed on.
Right.
And Milton's got to like, all you can eat buffet out there right now.
And we're talking like record breaking heat on top of what's already been warmer than usual.
Right.
I mean, that's not good.
No, it's not.
You're exactly right.
It's like a layering effect.
And it's definitely something we need to kind of unpack a little bit further later on.
But I think just for right now, let's stay laser focused on Milton.
So the National Hurricane Center, the NHC, they use this cone shaped projection to kind of
illustrate the possible paths.
Right.
The cone of uncertainty.
Exactly.
Everyone's familiar with that.
Yeah.
And right now that cone still covers a pretty large area of Florida's coastline.
But it seems like the models that are coming out, the more recent ones,
are kind of starting to agree on a more central landfall,
like somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers.
Yeah.
And that's what I was seeing in the models that I sent over to you too.
Right.
They seem to be coalescing around that area, which, you know, densely populated.
Yeah.
A lot going on there.
And that's really where things get even more crucial.
Because I would argue almost more so than even just like the intensity of the storm at this point.
The exact location where Meaton makes landfall is absolutely critical.
Because even a small shift in that location can totally change the impact of the storm surge.
So this is a good time to make sure everyone listening understands this too.
Yeah.
Why is the exact location so important when it comes to storm surge?
Yeah.
So it's a great question.
And it has to do with a few different factors all working together.
But basically you've got the angle of the coastline.
You've got the shape of the sea floor in that location.
Okay.
And then how those things interact with the direction of like the strongest winds pushing water towards the shore.
And one of the sources that you sent, the one that kind of modeled out those different landfall scenarios.
Yeah.
Does a really good job of like illustrating this.
That source, honestly, I got to say that one kind of creeped me out a little bit because they painted
two very, very different pictures of what could happen in Tampa Bay, depending on
if Milton makes landfall farther north towards like Pinellas, Pasco counties.
Right.
Versus a bit south towards Manatee or Sarasota.
Yeah.
And it's a stark contrast.
I mean, if Milton makes landfall farther north, we could be looking at like a catastrophic situation for Tampa Bay.
Really?
Like imagine, yeah, imagine storm surges of up to 11 feet in some areas.
11 feet.
Which is five feet higher than Hurricane Helene.
Right.
When it impacted the same coastline.
Wow, that's a lot.
Yeah, we're talking about like downtown Tampa potentially experiencing surges of up to 10 feet.
Oh, wow.
And not just right on like the waterfront.
Those surges can reach like Miles inland, even affecting places like upstream along the Hillsborough River.
And that's the scenario that has a lot of people really on edge, especially since like that particular area
really hasn't seen a direct hit from a major hurricane in over a century.
Right.
But if Milton were to come ashore, just a bit further south,
like some of the models suggest it might, it's a different story.
It's a totally different story.
I mean, that same source that you're talking about mentions that
Amanity or Sarasota landfall would actually mean a like almost negligible storm surge.
Oh.
For places like Pinellas, Pasco, even a good portion of Tampa Bay.
So really we're talking a difference of what, like a few miles, maybe one way or the other.
Yeah.
Could mean avoiding what would be a worst case scenario in terms of storm surge, at least for certain parts of, you know, that region.
Exactly.
And that's why, you know, nailing down that exact location is so important, especially for a region as populated and vulnerable to storm surge as Tampa Bay.
Right.
And of course, you know, we can't forget that this is still a major hurricane.
So, you know, wind damage is going to be a significant threat regardless of where Milton comes ashore.
Of course.
And then we've got to consider the entire area that's still in the cone of uncertainty.
Right.
And one thing I noticed in these updates,
Milton's bringing the potential for some serious rainfall too.
Mm-hmm.
This isn't just about wind and surge.
Yeah.
No, absolutely.
We're looking at like widespread rainfall amounts of maybe five to eight inches across the peninsula.
Wow.
And that's on top of what's already fallen, you know, in recent weeks, some areas could even see up to 12 inches.
That is a ton of rain in a short amount of time.
I mean, even if you escape the worst of the storm surge, you're still going to be dealing with potentially some rain.
Some pretty bad flooding from all that rain.
Yeah, absolutely.
And I always think, like, you know, heavy rainfall plus already saturated ground, that's a recipe for disaster.
I mean, you're talking widespread flooding, overflowing rivers, dangerous flash floods.
Right.
It's everything.
Yeah.
It's not just one thing with these hurricanes.
Exactly.
It's like the whole kitchen sink gets thrown at you.
Right.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's a lot.
And one of the sources I sent over, I think it was a blog post by the meteorologist,
Jibrion McNulty, he had a quote that really stuck with me.
Oh, okay.
And I'm paraphrasing here, but he basically said, like, when you're preparing for a hurricane,
you got to prepare, like, you're going to be on the bad side, which I thought was, you know,
maybe a little ominous sounding, but also, like, really good advice.
Oh, absolutely.
Yeah.
I mean, it kind of drives home the point that there's always that degree of uncertainty, you know.
Yeah.
And you can't afford to be complacent.
Like, it's really easy to look at that cone and be like, oh, well, you know, it's not pointed at me.
I'm good. But like you said, even a small shift can make a world of difference.
So this is not the time to, you know, roll the dice.
Absolutely not.
Better safe than sorry.
So it sounds like the message here is, you know, if you're anywhere in this thing's potential path.
Yeah.
Finalize your preparations now.
Yes, 100%.
Because like, tropical storm conditions, you know, could be there as early as Wednesday morning.
Yeah, that's coming up quick.
And then that's when things start to get really, really serious.
Like evacuation orders, you know, supplies get harder to find, travel becomes risky.
Yeah, you don't want to be on the roads at that point.
Not at all.
So everyone listening, here's the bottom line, right?
Yes.
If you haven't already, make sure your hurricane kit is stocked up, review that evacuation route.
Yes.
Make sure you know where you're going to go, how you're going to get there.
Exactly.
If you have to leave.
And really, most importantly, you know, stay tuned to your local officials.
That's where you're going to get the best information as it changes.
Yeah, absolutely.
Stay informed.
Don't wait until the last minute.
Now, Milton is the big one, obviously, but, you know, I sent over some information about
a couple other hurricanes spinning out of the Atlantic.
Right.
Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie, what's the latest on those?
Yeah, good catch.
Can't forget about those.
It looks like Kirk, which is currently kind of in the Central Atlantic, is on a track to head
towards Northern Europe.
Interesting.
Yeah.
And it's forecast to weaken as it kind of transitions out of tropical waters and into the
colder North Atlantic.
Right.
But it could still bring some strong winds and maybe even some coastal flooding by the middle
of next week.
Oh, wow.
Yeah.
So still something to keep an eye on.
Okay.
What about Leslie?
How's that one shaping up?
Leslie's also in the Central Atlantic right now.
Okay.
Good news with that one is it's expected to weaken significantly before it makes landfall.
Chew.
Okay.
Yeah.
So much less of a threat than initially projected.
So two very different paths for those two storms.
Good reminder that we can't just look at the Atlantic Basin as like a one size fits all.
Right.
Each hurricane is its own thing.
Each one is unique, behaves its own way.
Yeah.
Absolutely.
It definitely highlights the complexity of hurricane season, especially with the added
layer of a changing climate on top of everything.
And that actually brings up a question I had as we've been talking about
you know, Milton's rapid intensification.
Right.
You know, these record warm ocean water.
Yeah.
What role is climate change playing in all this?
And you know, what could this mean for future hurricane seasons?
Because it feels like we're not just talking about one storm anymore.
This is like a much bigger conversation.
That's the million dollar question, right?
It really is.
And it's an interesting one.
I mean, while scientists, you know, are always very careful not to say any single
hurricane is caused by climate change.
Sure.
There is more and more evidence that, you know, a warmer world creates a much better
environment for these powerful storms to develop and intensify.
So we've got the warmer oceans.
We've talked about that.
That's like rocket fuel.
Yeah.
But what else?
What other ways could climate change be kind of, I guess, tipping the scales here?
So there's a bunch of, I guess, concerning trends all kind of converging right now.
Okay.
First, you have warmer air, which means that the air is holding more moisture.
Right.
And that translates into heavier rainfall and a much greater risk of like catastrophic
flooding from these storms.
Right.
And that's even in areas that don't get a direct hit.
Right, exactly.
You've got sea level rise.
I mean, with sea levels creeping up globally, storm surge, which is already, you know,
super dangerous, is starting from a higher baseline and can penetrate a lot farther inland,
which obviously causes even more damage.
Right.
You're starting higher and going higher from there.
Exactly.
And then some studies have even suggested that climate change could even be influencing
things like how rapidly a hurricane intensifies or whether it stalls out over a particular area.
Oh, wow.
Which obviously the longer it sits there, the more rain, the more wind, the more damage.
So if this is like the new reality, right, the new normal we keep hearing about,
what does that mean for how we prepare for hurricane season?
Because it seems like, you know, stocking up on water and batteries.
Yeah.
Maybe that's not going to cut it.
No.
And I think you're right.
We need a fundamental shift in our thinking here.
Okay.
It's not just about reacting to these storms anymore.
It's about being proactive, preparing for a future where these really intense hurricanes
are just more and more likely.
Right.
So what does that look like?
It's investing in more resilient infrastructure.
Oh.
Rethinking how and where we build along the coastlines.
And I think really having some tough conversations about how to address the
root causes of climate change.
Yeah.
You're talking like societal change almost.
Absolutely.
This is bigger than just, you know, each individual.
It's a sobering thought, especially with a storm like Milton bearing down on us.
It is.
But it feels like the right time to be having this conversation.
It really is.
It's in moments like these where I think we really have to, you know, take a look at the
bigger picture.
And, you know, here's something I think we could all think about as we make those final
preparations for Milton.
What if we put as much effort and ingenuity into fighting climate change as we do into
predicting and reacting to these increasingly powerful storms?
That is something to think about.
For everyone listening, we hope this information helps you feel more informed.
Yeah.
And definitely more prepared.
And not just for this hurricane, right?
But for this new reality of hurricane season in a warming world.
Absolutely.
Also, stay safe.
Stay informed, everyone.
Stay safe.
And remember, we're all in this together.