WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:03.149 we're sparking Welcome back to the Deep Dive, 00:01:03.149 --> 00:01:04.989 where we cut through all the industry noise and 00:01:04.989 --> 00:01:07.590 just, you know, get right down to the data that 00:01:07.590 --> 00:01:09.629 actually matters for your operation. Exactly. 00:01:09.849 --> 00:01:12.950 We're here to look at the numbers, skip the marketing 00:01:12.950 --> 00:01:15.430 hype, and figure out what's really going to move 00:01:15.430 --> 00:01:17.560 the needle on your farm. Right. So I want you 00:01:17.560 --> 00:01:19.980 to transport yourself back to April of 2020. 00:01:20.340 --> 00:01:23.519 Oh, man. 2020. Yeah. Right. And I don't mean 00:01:23.519 --> 00:01:25.299 the pandemic stuff. I mean, in the dairy industry, 00:01:25.500 --> 00:01:28.879 breeders were logging into the U .S. CDCB and 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:31.260 the Holstein Association evaluations. And it 00:01:31.260 --> 00:01:34.019 was honestly like draft day. Oh, totally. It 00:01:34.019 --> 00:01:38.480 was a frenzy. There was this list of 401 elite 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:42.180 genomic Holstein. Yeah. And they were being hailed 00:01:42.180 --> 00:01:44.420 as the absolute undeniable future of the breed. 00:01:44.519 --> 00:01:46.280 They can't miss sires. Exactly. They can't miss 00:01:46.280 --> 00:01:48.719 sires. And mating programs everywhere just swung 00:01:48.719 --> 00:01:50.519 hard toward these genomic wonders overnight. 00:01:50.640 --> 00:01:52.599 Everyone was buying in. Because on paper, you'd 00:01:52.599 --> 00:01:54.719 be crazy not to, right? The numbers were sky 00:01:54.719 --> 00:01:57.420 high. Right. But fast forward to December 2025. 00:01:57.579 --> 00:02:00.340 We have a massive, rigorous tracking analysis 00:02:00.340 --> 00:02:03.680 from the bull vine. And it tracks this specific 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:08.400 2020 cohort for five full years. And the results 00:02:08.400 --> 00:02:11.319 are... Well, they're honestly staggering. Yes, 00:02:11.319 --> 00:02:14.780 staggering is the word. Out of those 401 elite 00:02:14.780 --> 00:02:19.599 bulls, 236 of them completely vanished. Done. 00:02:19.939 --> 00:02:24.000 Zero official daughters. Zero impact on the bulk 00:02:24.000 --> 00:02:28.379 tank. Yep. So today, our mission is to tear into 00:02:28.379 --> 00:02:31.060 this data. We need to figure out what happens 00:02:31.060 --> 00:02:33.340 when genetic theory actually hits the concrete 00:02:33.340 --> 00:02:40.240 of a commercial parlor. I mean, it's a massive 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:42.280 reality check. If you're a farmer betting your 00:02:42.280 --> 00:02:44.719 future milk check on young sires, you have to 00:02:44.719 --> 00:02:47.319 understand why this happened. Exactly. And we 00:02:47.319 --> 00:02:49.539 aren't just looking at who survived. We're looking 00:02:49.539 --> 00:02:51.740 at the biological failures, the shifting math, 00:02:51.840 --> 00:02:54.460 and the crazy economic divide between the bulls 00:02:54.460 --> 00:02:56.800 that essentially predicted the future and the 00:02:56.800 --> 00:02:59.340 ones that just burned spectacular holes in farmers' 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:01.960 pockets. Right. The financial fallout is wild. 00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:04.009 Let's start with that attrition rate. Out of 00:03:04.009 --> 00:03:07.789 401 bulls, only 165 made it to an official daughter 00:03:07.789 --> 00:03:12.069 proven proof by December 2025. That is just 41%. 00:03:12.069 --> 00:03:14.050 Less than half. All right. So I look at that 00:03:14.050 --> 00:03:16.430 and I have to push back a little here. How does 00:03:16.430 --> 00:03:20.229 an animal with supposedly elite genetic potential 00:03:20.229 --> 00:03:23.330 just evaporate? Yeah, that's a great question. 00:03:23.550 --> 00:03:26.389 I mean, did farmers buy into a biological mirage? 00:03:26.669 --> 00:03:30.789 How does a top tier bull fail to produce literally 00:03:30.789 --> 00:03:33.180 one milking daughter? Well, what's fascinating 00:03:33.180 --> 00:03:35.719 here is that it's rarely a failure on the farmer's 00:03:35.719 --> 00:03:38.060 end. It's really a collision between biological 00:03:38.060 --> 00:03:41.659 limits and honestly, extreme corporate velocity. 00:03:41.919 --> 00:03:44.379 OK, unpack that. Biological limits first. Right. 00:03:44.479 --> 00:03:47.319 So let's look at the biology. That 2020 top -tier 00:03:47.319 --> 00:03:49.939 cohort, they were the product of incredibly aggressive 00:03:49.939 --> 00:03:53.819 in vitro fertilization programs. IVF was everywhere. 00:03:54.060 --> 00:03:55.620 Because everyone wanted to shorten the generation 00:03:55.620 --> 00:03:58.060 interval. Exactly. The whole industry became 00:03:58.060 --> 00:04:00.659 obsessed with accelerating genetic gain. And 00:04:00.659 --> 00:04:02.500 mathematically, if you breed a 10 -month -old 00:04:02.500 --> 00:04:05.080 calf to another 10 -month -old calf, you speed 00:04:05.080 --> 00:04:07.520 up how fast superior genes hit the population. 00:04:07.939 --> 00:04:09.840 Which sounds great on a spreadsheet. It looks 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:12.979 amazing on a spreadsheet. Biologically, you are 00:04:12.979 --> 00:04:15.460 asking a juvenile animal to take on the reproductive 00:04:15.460 --> 00:04:18.060 workload of a mature adult. Right. The physical 00:04:18.060 --> 00:04:20.379 engine is just running way too hot. Exactly. 00:04:20.860 --> 00:04:23.759 The physical toll on these young bulls is immense. 00:04:24.000 --> 00:04:26.399 They were being pushed into heavy semen collection 00:04:26.399 --> 00:04:29.360 before they even reached physical maturity. And 00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:31.560 for a lot of them, it led to a literal breakdown. 00:04:32.320 --> 00:04:34.519 Wow. So they just couldn't physically handle 00:04:34.519 --> 00:04:37.259 it. Yeah. Some of these elite calves just couldn't 00:04:37.259 --> 00:04:40.079 produce enough viable semen to get a meaningful 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:43.860 number of cows pregnant. And others, while others 00:04:43.860 --> 00:04:46.300 suffered rapid health declines and didn't even 00:04:46.300 --> 00:04:48.000 live long enough to see their first daughters 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:50.490 hit the ground. So the genetic potential was 00:04:50.490 --> 00:04:53.110 technically real, but the delivery system failed. 00:04:53.470 --> 00:04:55.449 Precisely. The bull himself just broke down. 00:04:55.589 --> 00:04:57.889 Okay, so that's the biology side. But you also 00:04:57.889 --> 00:05:00.189 mentioned corporate velocity. Yeah, the institutional 00:05:00.189 --> 00:05:04.269 churn. Right. So if an AI stud pays massive money 00:05:04.269 --> 00:05:06.970 to acquire one of these elite calves, why on 00:05:06.970 --> 00:05:08.949 earth would they let him vanish if he happens 00:05:08.949 --> 00:05:11.569 to be physically healthy? Because the AI studs 00:05:11.569 --> 00:05:13.889 were moving at a speed that literally outpaced 00:05:13.889 --> 00:05:16.009 their own product life cycle. Wait, what do you 00:05:16.009 --> 00:05:18.959 mean? Well, think about it. by the time a phenomenal 00:05:18.959 --> 00:05:23.019 2020 calf was a year old his own son or maybe 00:05:23.019 --> 00:05:25.240 a half brother was already hitting the ground 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:29.079 in 2021 with an even higher index oh i see yeah 00:05:29.079 --> 00:05:31.240 the studs looked at their rosters and realized 00:05:31.240 --> 00:05:33.939 hey we've already mathematically replaced the 00:05:33.939 --> 00:05:37.290 2020 model so they quietly retired or culled 00:05:37.290 --> 00:05:40.269 a massive swath of these calves before they ever 00:05:40.269 --> 00:05:42.550 had milking daughters. Just to make room in the 00:05:42.550 --> 00:05:45.250 bull barns. Exactly. Make room for the next iteration. 00:05:45.689 --> 00:05:48.310 That is wild. You're essentially making a bet 00:05:48.310 --> 00:05:50.990 on a financial asset and the bank discontinues 00:05:50.990 --> 00:05:53.209 the asset before it even matures. That's exactly 00:05:53.209 --> 00:05:55.250 what happened. So if you were a breeder who went 00:05:55.250 --> 00:05:59.910 all in on those April 2020 genomic lists, a massive 00:05:59.910 --> 00:06:02.089 chunk of what you paid for never even got a chance 00:06:02.089 --> 00:06:05.079 to prove itself. Yep. Your investment just evaporated 00:06:05.079 --> 00:06:07.839 into the corporate churn. And for the 41 % that 00:06:07.839 --> 00:06:10.240 did survive, the reshuffling of the rankings 00:06:10.240 --> 00:06:12.379 was just brutal. I mean, let's look at the absolute 00:06:12.379 --> 00:06:16.680 peak. Of the top 25 genomic bulls in 2020, 21 00:06:16.680 --> 00:06:19.720 actually got a proof. Okay, so a good survival 00:06:19.720 --> 00:06:23.139 rate for the absolute elite. Yeah, but of those 00:06:23.139 --> 00:06:27.139 21, only 9 held on to a top 25 spot by December 00:06:27.139 --> 00:06:31.660 2025. Wow, only 9? Only 36 % of the elite actually 00:06:31.660 --> 00:06:34.410 stayed elite. And if we expand to the top 100, 00:06:34.730 --> 00:06:38.009 74 got a proof, but only 14 were still in the 00:06:38.009 --> 00:06:41.389 top 25 five years later. That is a massive reshuffle. 00:06:41.550 --> 00:06:43.550 Right. So a farmer hearing this might immediately 00:06:43.550 --> 00:06:46.410 say, well, genomics is a scam. The DNA testing 00:06:46.410 --> 00:06:48.970 lied. Yeah, that's the coffee shop talk for sure. 00:06:49.189 --> 00:06:51.670 Exactly. But looking at the actual data from 00:06:51.670 --> 00:06:54.149 the surviving bulls, the DNA didn't lie at all, 00:06:54.189 --> 00:06:56.529 did it? Not at all. The underlying biology held 00:06:56.529 --> 00:06:59.069 up incredibly well. Okay, let's unpack this. 00:06:59.189 --> 00:07:02.069 If the genomic science works, Why did so many 00:07:02.069 --> 00:07:04.430 of these bulls just hemorrhage TPI points? Because 00:07:04.430 --> 00:07:06.769 the volatility didn't come from the DNA. The 00:07:06.769 --> 00:07:09.029 volatility came from the human -made index that 00:07:09.029 --> 00:07:11.949 grades the DNA. The yardstick moved. The yardstick 00:07:11.949 --> 00:07:14.810 moved massively. The correlations between the 00:07:14.810 --> 00:07:18.250 2020 predictions and the 2025 proven proofs for 00:07:18.250 --> 00:07:21.490 core biological traits were actually ironclad. 00:07:21.569 --> 00:07:23.889 Do we have the numbers on that? We do. For predicted 00:07:23.889 --> 00:07:26.550 transmitting ability for type PTT, the correlation 00:07:26.550 --> 00:07:30.240 was 0 .814. That's really high. It is. For fat 00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:35.139 yield, it was 0 .762. For protein yield, 0 .709. 00:07:35.579 --> 00:07:39.220 And in statistics, anything over a 0 .7 is a 00:07:39.220 --> 00:07:42.480 very strong relationship. Exactly. It means genomics 00:07:42.480 --> 00:07:45.060 accurately predicted how many pounds of fat and 00:07:45.060 --> 00:07:47.899 protein a bull's daughters would produce. The 00:07:47.899 --> 00:07:50.279 physical cow did exactly what the test tube predicted. 00:07:50.500 --> 00:07:53.519 So the science worked. The DNA delivered. Yep. 00:07:53.579 --> 00:07:56.620 But the ground literally shifted under every 00:07:56.620 --> 00:08:00.120 single bull in this cohort in three major structural 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:04.259 ways. The TPI formula underwent massive rewrites. 00:08:04.379 --> 00:08:06.100 Okay, let's dig into those three shifts because 00:08:06.100 --> 00:08:08.779 this is where the money is won or lost. Right. 00:08:08.899 --> 00:08:11.500 So the first one, and probably the most universal, 00:08:11.540 --> 00:08:15.300 was the April 2025 base change. Think of this 00:08:15.300 --> 00:08:17.600 as the genetic treadmill speeding up. Right, 00:08:17.620 --> 00:08:20.519 because every five years, the CDCB resets the 00:08:20.519 --> 00:08:23.000 Holstein genetic base. They moved the baseline 00:08:23.000 --> 00:08:25.920 from cows born in 2015 to cows born in 2020. 00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:28.480 And because the Holstein breed made such massive 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:31.660 genetic progress in that five -year window, everyone's 00:08:31.660 --> 00:08:34.480 baseline was heavily penalized. So just to stay 00:08:34.480 --> 00:08:37.059 at zero, you had to be vastly superior to what 00:08:37.059 --> 00:08:39.870 was required five years ago. Exactly. The mathematical 00:08:39.870 --> 00:08:43.529 rollback was severe. Milk was slashed by 650 00:08:43.529 --> 00:08:48.549 pounds, fat by 38 pounds, protein by 26 pounds. 00:08:48.649 --> 00:08:51.379 Wow. That's a huge haircut. It is. Productive 00:08:51.379 --> 00:08:54.879 life was docked by 2 .31 months. For the average 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:57.980 bull in this cohort that survived to 2025, they 00:08:57.980 --> 00:09:02.799 dropped an average of 42 .5 TPI points just from 00:09:02.799 --> 00:09:05.360 surviving this base change. That's pure academic 00:09:05.360 --> 00:09:07.820 inflation. Totally. If the whole class suddenly 00:09:07.820 --> 00:09:11.620 starts testing 20 % higher and 85 % on the exam 00:09:11.620 --> 00:09:14.720 no longer looks like an elite score. So the grading 00:09:14.720 --> 00:09:17.809 curve shifts downward. Exactly right. And on 00:09:17.809 --> 00:09:20.690 top of that base change, expected future inbreeding, 00:09:20.809 --> 00:09:25.269 or EFI, climbed from 7 .5 % to 9 .4%. Oh, so 00:09:25.269 --> 00:09:27.649 that penalized certain heavily utilized pedigrees 00:09:27.649 --> 00:09:29.710 even more. Yeah, it added extra mathematical 00:09:29.710 --> 00:09:32.750 pressure. So if your favorite bull lost 40 or 00:09:32.750 --> 00:09:35.590 50 points of TPI over those five years, he didn't 00:09:35.590 --> 00:09:37.970 biologically regress. Right, the formula just 00:09:37.970 --> 00:09:40.629 demanded more. Exactly. But that base change 00:09:40.629 --> 00:09:43.690 was purely mathematical. The second massive shift, 00:09:43.789 --> 00:09:46.529 which hit in April 2021, was entirely philosophical. 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:50.159 The feed efficiency update. Yes. Holstein Association 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:54.879 USA rewrote the TPI formula to heavily penalize 00:09:54.879 --> 00:09:58.200 big, heavy cows by pulling feed saved into the 00:09:58.200 --> 00:10:01.899 mix. Because before that, TPI really loved a 00:10:01.899 --> 00:10:04.840 giant, high -volume cow. It did. But the new 00:10:04.840 --> 00:10:07.779 term leaned incredibly hard into solids and feed 00:10:07.779 --> 00:10:10.629 conversion rather than raw fluid volume. The 00:10:10.629 --> 00:10:12.750 actual math on this is fascinating. I love the 00:10:12.750 --> 00:10:14.409 math. Let's hear it. All right. So the new formula 00:10:14.409 --> 00:10:17.029 became feed efficiency dollars equals negative 00:10:17.029 --> 00:10:22.940 0 .0025 times PTA milk. Wait, negative. The multiplier 00:10:22.940 --> 00:10:25.340 for raw milk volume became a negative number. 00:10:25.519 --> 00:10:28.500 Yes, exactly. Negative for fluid volume. Then 00:10:28.500 --> 00:10:32.759 it adds 1 .86 times PTA fat plus 1 .75 times 00:10:32.759 --> 00:10:36.659 PTA protein plus 0 .13 times feed saved. That 00:10:36.659 --> 00:10:39.539 is a total paradigm shift. It really is. Think 00:10:39.539 --> 00:10:41.440 about the sheer metabolic tax of maintaining 00:10:41.440 --> 00:10:44.679 an 1 ,800 pound cow. Right. She's huge. Even 00:10:44.679 --> 00:10:46.820 if she gives you 35 ,000 pounds of fluid milk, 00:10:46.980 --> 00:10:49.679 she's consuming so much dry matter just to keep 00:10:49.679 --> 00:10:51.759 her heartbeat. and her massive frame moving. 00:10:51.879 --> 00:10:54.200 The economic margin on that milk is entirely 00:10:54.200 --> 00:10:56.860 eaten up at the feed bunk. Exactly. So if a bull 00:10:56.860 --> 00:10:59.799 was making massive, tall, heavy daughters with 00:10:59.799 --> 00:11:02.440 a high body weight composite, they suddenly started 00:11:02.440 --> 00:11:05.659 paying a heavy TPI penalty. So the era of bigger 00:11:05.659 --> 00:11:09.159 is better officially died in 2021. It did. The 00:11:09.159 --> 00:11:11.679 formula stopped rewarding the sheer volume giants 00:11:11.679 --> 00:11:14.179 and started handsomely rewarding the moderate 00:11:14.179 --> 00:11:17.039 -framed cows, quietly pounding out butter, fat, 00:11:17.059 --> 00:11:20.059 and protein without needing extra tons of expensive 00:11:20.059 --> 00:11:22.320 corn. Which makes total sense for a farmer's 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:24.720 bottom line. And that perfectly sets the stage 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:27.379 for the third massive structural shift in August 00:11:27.379 --> 00:11:30.659 2024, the fertility index rebalance. Oh yeah, 00:11:30.820 --> 00:11:33.639 this one was huge. Because fertility is the silent 00:11:33.639 --> 00:11:35.879 killer of profitability on any dairy. Absolutely. 00:11:36.379 --> 00:11:38.620 For years, daughter pregnancy rate DPR carried 00:11:38.620 --> 00:11:41.360 70 % of the weight of the fertility index. But 00:11:41.360 --> 00:11:44.039 in 2024, the industry recognized a major flaw 00:11:44.039 --> 00:11:46.080 in how that was being applied. So they slashed 00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:49.159 it. They slashed DPR's weight down to 40%. And 00:11:49.159 --> 00:11:51.080 to fill the gap, they elevated cow consumption 00:11:51.080 --> 00:11:54.600 rate, or CCR, up to 40 % as well. So explain 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:56.700 that to the listener. Why does the distinction 00:11:56.700 --> 00:11:59.879 between DPR and CCR matter so much when you are 00:11:59.879 --> 00:12:02.600 standing in the barn with an AI gun? Well, DPR 00:12:02.600 --> 00:12:05.259 essentially measures how quickly a cow gets pregnant. 00:12:05.610 --> 00:12:08.350 after her voluntary waiting period. But it was 00:12:08.350 --> 00:12:10.769 inadvertently rewarding cows that might miss 00:12:10.769 --> 00:12:13.009 a conception, come back into heat very quickly, 00:12:13.110 --> 00:12:15.710 and try again. Oh, so it was rewarding the speed 00:12:15.710 --> 00:12:18.110 of cycling, not necessarily a successful pregnancy 00:12:18.110 --> 00:12:21.190 on the first try. Exactly. It rewarded fast cycling. 00:12:21.450 --> 00:12:24.350 By elevating CCR, the index stopped rewarding 00:12:24.350 --> 00:12:27.169 bulls whose daughters just cycled fast and started 00:12:27.169 --> 00:12:29.950 explicitly rewarding actual first -service conception. 00:12:30.309 --> 00:12:31.950 It's the difference between a cow who gets bred 00:12:31.950 --> 00:12:34.750 three times in 60 days versus a cow who gets 00:12:34.889 --> 00:12:37.710 bread once on day 40 and actually sticks. And 00:12:37.710 --> 00:12:39.470 which one does the farmer want? The one who sticks 00:12:39.470 --> 00:12:41.850 the first time, obviously. Every missed heat, 00:12:41.970 --> 00:12:44.549 every extra straw semen, every extra vet check 00:12:44.549 --> 00:12:47.570 eats directly into the profit margin. Precisely. 00:12:47.570 --> 00:12:51.129 So any 2020 bull whose genomic PPI looked amazing 00:12:51.129 --> 00:12:53.230 just because it was propped up by extreme DPR, 00:12:53.409 --> 00:12:55.629 but lacked the underlying cow conception rate 00:12:55.629 --> 00:12:57.750 to actually hold the pregnancy. Well, he took 00:12:57.750 --> 00:13:01.529 a massive hit in 2024. Wow. So to tie those three 00:13:01.529 --> 00:13:04.539 shifts together. The baseline got universally 00:13:04.539 --> 00:13:08.019 harder, big feed -hungry cows got heavily penalized, 00:13:08.080 --> 00:13:10.879 and sloppy multi -service fertility got punished. 00:13:11.039 --> 00:13:13.440 That is the perfect summary. And look, you don't 00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:15.679 control any of these base changes as a dairy 00:13:15.679 --> 00:13:17.580 farmer. Right, you're at the mercy of the association. 00:13:18.019 --> 00:13:20.100 But understanding the mechanisms behind them 00:13:20.100 --> 00:13:22.700 is the only way you prevent yourself from throwing 00:13:22.700 --> 00:13:25.519 out a perfectly profitable bull just because 00:13:25.519 --> 00:13:28.580 his TPI number adjusted to a new reality. That 00:13:28.580 --> 00:13:30.879 makes so much sense. So now that we know how 00:13:30.879 --> 00:13:32.899 the yardstick moved, let's look at the bulls 00:13:32.899 --> 00:13:34.879 that played this new game perfectly and the ones 00:13:34.879 --> 00:13:36.980 that crashed entirely. We have to start with 00:13:36.980 --> 00:13:39.720 the absolute outlier of this entire data set. 00:13:39.860 --> 00:13:43.059 We do. A bull that didn't just survive the gauntlet, 00:13:43.139 --> 00:13:45.919 but seemingly predicted the future of dairy economics. 00:13:46.440 --> 00:13:48.840 We need to talk about Genasaur's captain. Captain 00:13:48.840 --> 00:13:51.460 is the defining bull of this era. I mean, hands 00:13:51.460 --> 00:13:54.059 down. Born on New Year's Day 2019 out in Iowa. 00:13:54.240 --> 00:13:57.779 Yep. He's a troll by saber. And for those analyzing 00:13:57.779 --> 00:14:00.190 the pedigree, what does that mean? It means he 00:14:00.190 --> 00:14:02.669 inherited a massive production engine from his 00:14:02.669 --> 00:14:05.750 sire line, but he was grounded by moderate, efficient 00:14:05.750 --> 00:14:08.809 physical traits on his maternal side. So he had 00:14:08.809 --> 00:14:11.269 the perfect balance. Exactly. Even early on, 00:14:11.409 --> 00:14:14.049 Tim Rowan from Genisource flagged him as a long 00:14:14.049 --> 00:14:16.850 -term deal. They knew they had something special. 00:14:17.110 --> 00:14:22.509 He debuted in April 2020 at 3 ,059 GDPI. And 00:14:22.509 --> 00:14:25.490 remember, the base change in formula shifts caused 00:14:25.490 --> 00:14:28.450 the average surviving bull to drop over 42 points. 00:14:28.830 --> 00:14:31.809 Most of his peers plummeted. But Captain, by 00:14:31.809 --> 00:14:36.490 December 2025, Captain gained 369 TPI points, 00:14:36.690 --> 00:14:41.009 hitting 3428 TPI. It's unheard of. And this isn't 00:14:41.009 --> 00:14:43.690 based on a small sample size. His proof is pulling 00:14:43.690 --> 00:14:47.309 from over 12 ,000 daughters in nearly 800 herds. 00:14:47.309 --> 00:14:49.429 With a milk reliability sitting at a flawless 00:14:49.429 --> 00:14:53.370 99%. 99%. So we know exactly what a Captain daughter 00:14:53.370 --> 00:14:55.450 looks like in the bulk tank. We do. They average 00:14:55.450 --> 00:14:59.899 32 ,542 pounds of milk. plus 123 pounds of fat, 00:15:00.019 --> 00:15:03.059 and plus 64 pounds of protein. That is insane 00:15:03.059 --> 00:15:06.440 production. The CEO of ST Genetics publicly stated 00:15:06.440 --> 00:15:09.519 he is the best bull the breed has ever seen. 00:15:09.659 --> 00:15:12.820 And looking at the specific proof file, the math 00:15:12.820 --> 00:15:16.539 absolutely backs up the hyperbole. But how? How 00:15:16.539 --> 00:15:19.480 did he defy the gravity that pulled down 59 % 00:15:19.480 --> 00:15:22.840 of his cohort? If the yardstick moves so drastically 00:15:22.840 --> 00:15:25.700 against his peers, How did he gain almost 400 00:15:25.700 --> 00:15:28.100 points? Because he was naturally built for the 00:15:28.100 --> 00:15:30.059 updates before they even happened. He was ahead 00:15:30.059 --> 00:15:32.639 of his time. Totally. His profile was intensely 00:15:32.639 --> 00:15:36.059 heavy on components. He threw incredibly efficient, 00:15:36.220 --> 00:15:39.059 moderate frames that scored perfectly on the 00:15:39.059 --> 00:15:42.059 2021 feed -saved update. Right. So his daughters 00:15:42.059 --> 00:15:44.179 weren't wasting energy maintaining massive body 00:15:44.179 --> 00:15:46.559 weights. Exactly. And furthermore, his fertility 00:15:46.559 --> 00:15:50.179 metrics held rock solid under the 2024 CCR rewrite. 00:15:50.440 --> 00:15:53.000 He was the absolute prototype for the economic 00:15:53.000 --> 00:15:56.600 reality of 2025, but he was born in 2019. Now, 00:15:56.639 --> 00:15:58.919 even Captain has nuances to manage, right? We 00:15:58.919 --> 00:16:00.899 have to be fair. Oh, for sure. Readers note he 00:16:00.899 --> 00:16:02.700 needs to be protected on somatic cell count, 00:16:02.840 --> 00:16:04.940 and you have to watch his overall conformation, 00:16:05.200 --> 00:16:08.000 specifically strength, foot angle, and teat length. 00:16:08.159 --> 00:16:10.679 So he's not flawless physically. No, but the 00:16:10.679 --> 00:16:13.100 sheer production engine underneath that frame 00:16:13.100 --> 00:16:16.419 is unprecedented at a 99 % reliability level. 00:16:16.580 --> 00:16:19.840 So let's translate those index points into actual 00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:22.779 revenue for a farm. Because overperformed is 00:16:22.779 --> 00:16:24.779 a nice concept, but here's where it gets really 00:16:24.779 --> 00:16:26.620 interesting. Yeah. What does it mean for the 00:16:26.620 --> 00:16:29.259 milk check? Let's do the exact math. I love this 00:16:29.259 --> 00:16:32.000 part. Go for it. On the December 2025 proof, 00:16:32.279 --> 00:16:34.580 Captain's predicted transmitting ability stands 00:16:34.580 --> 00:16:39.620 at plus 67 pounds of protein and plus 120 pounds 00:16:39.620 --> 00:16:42.899 of fat per lactation. Okay. And the average bull. 00:16:43.259 --> 00:16:46.500 The average bull in this 401 bull cohort sits 00:16:46.500 --> 00:16:51.299 at plus 29 pounds of protein and plus 64 .9 pounds 00:16:51.299 --> 00:16:53.720 of fat. So subtracting the average from Captain 00:16:53.720 --> 00:16:56.740 gives him an edge of roughly 38 extra pounds 00:16:56.740 --> 00:16:59.860 of protein and 55 extra pounds of fat per daughter 00:16:59.860 --> 00:17:02.299 per lactation. Right. Compared to an average 00:17:02.299 --> 00:17:05.079 bull from his exact same class. So the bull vine. 00:17:05.480 --> 00:17:08.859 Use the January 2025 U .S. Federal Milk Marketing 00:17:08.859 --> 00:17:11.720 Order Class 3 component prices for this calculation. 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:17.180 And at $2 .33 per pound of protein and $2 .95 00:17:17.180 --> 00:17:20.200 per pound of butterfat. That component gap works 00:17:20.200 --> 00:17:24.380 out to roughly $250 extra per cow per year in 00:17:24.380 --> 00:17:28.319 raw component revenue. $250 extra per cow every 00:17:28.319 --> 00:17:31.029 single year. Exactly. And scaling that up to 00:17:31.029 --> 00:17:33.009 a commercial level is where the stakes become 00:17:33.009 --> 00:17:35.450 truly apparent for your operation. Right. Let's 00:17:35.450 --> 00:17:37.589 look at a big free stall herd. Say you run a 00:17:37.589 --> 00:17:40.710 1 ,000 cow operation and you used Captain to 00:17:40.710 --> 00:17:43.849 sire half of your replacements. Once those 500 00:17:43.849 --> 00:17:46.190 daughters are in full production, you are looking 00:17:46.190 --> 00:17:50.190 at $125 ,000 in extra component revenue every 00:17:50.190 --> 00:17:52.450 single year. Which compared to using an average 00:17:52.450 --> 00:17:56.450 bull. Yes. That $125 ,000 extra annually is not 00:17:56.450 --> 00:17:58.930 a rounding error. That is the difference between 00:17:58.930 --> 00:18:01.109 making your principal loan payments comfortably 00:18:01.109 --> 00:18:04.710 and sweating bullets every time feed costs spike. 00:18:04.890 --> 00:18:07.309 It changes the entire financial trajectory of 00:18:07.309 --> 00:18:10.349 a farm. It really does. But to truly understand 00:18:10.349 --> 00:18:13.410 the impact of sire selection, we have to look 00:18:13.410 --> 00:18:16.150 at the opposite end of the spectrum. The foil 00:18:16.150 --> 00:18:19.809 to captain. Ah, yes. A .O. homecoming. Homecoming. 00:18:19.950 --> 00:18:23.069 The ultimate. cautionary tale of this five -year 00:18:23.069 --> 00:18:25.109 window. He really is. He was heavily marketed 00:18:25.109 --> 00:18:27.430 right alongside Captain in that 2020 window. 00:18:27.589 --> 00:18:29.750 People were incredibly excited about him. But 00:18:29.750 --> 00:18:33.390 while Captain gained 369 points, Homecoming crashed 00:18:33.390 --> 00:18:38.569 spectacularly. It was brutal. He lost 414 TPI 00:18:38.569 --> 00:18:42.849 points. 414 points. No. His proven PTAs landed 00:18:42.849 --> 00:18:45.930 at a dismal minus five pounds of protein and 00:18:45.930 --> 00:18:49.140 just plus six pounds of fat. So comparing homecoming 00:18:49.140 --> 00:18:51.839 directly to cavity is just brutal. A homecoming 00:18:51.839 --> 00:18:54.279 daughter is giving you 72 pounds less protein 00:18:54.279 --> 00:18:58.579 and 114 pounds less fat per lactation. And if 00:18:58.579 --> 00:19:00.740 you run the same component prices on that deficit, 00:19:00.980 --> 00:19:03.559 a homecoming daughter brings in roughly $500 00:19:03.559 --> 00:19:06.420 less per cow per year than a captain daughter. 00:19:06.619 --> 00:19:10.720 $500 less per cow. Per year. Yes. And over a 00:19:10.720 --> 00:19:13.319 typical three lactation lifespan, that is $1 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:16.890 ,500 of lost revenue per animal. On a herd of 00:19:16.890 --> 00:19:20.069 any significant size, that is a catastrophic 00:19:20.069 --> 00:19:22.690 loss of potential capital. Absolutely catastrophic. 00:19:23.250 --> 00:19:25.490 And here's the kicker. Both of these bulls were 00:19:25.490 --> 00:19:28.069 available in semen catalogs at the exact same 00:19:28.069 --> 00:19:30.089 time. Yep, sitting right next to each other on 00:19:30.089 --> 00:19:32.450 the page. The semen price gap between a straw 00:19:32.450 --> 00:19:35.609 of captain and a straw of homecoming wasn't $500. 00:19:36.230 --> 00:19:39.009 A farmer could have picked either one for roughly 00:19:39.009 --> 00:19:41.859 the same upfront investment. But the long -term 00:19:41.859 --> 00:19:44.140 revenue gap on your milk check is staggering. 00:19:44.500 --> 00:19:47.559 It highlights the immense risk of genomic selection. 00:19:47.799 --> 00:19:49.700 But homecoming wasn't the only casualty, right? 00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:52.240 If we look at the anatomy of a genomic crash, 00:19:52.579 --> 00:19:55.940 a very clear repeating pattern emerges in the 00:19:55.940 --> 00:19:59.019 data. It does. We have to name the specific bulls 00:19:59.019 --> 00:20:01.420 to understand the failure here. Besides homecoming 00:20:01.420 --> 00:20:05.619 losing 414 points, we saw Supercharge lose 396 00:20:05.619 --> 00:20:08.380 points. Wow. What happened to him? Well, his 00:20:08.380 --> 00:20:12.619 type score just collapsed by 2 .32 points. It 00:20:12.619 --> 00:20:15.299 fell from a positive 1 .18 down to a negative 00:20:15.299 --> 00:20:21.079 1 .14. Yeah. Then Tycoon lost 352 points, largely 00:20:21.079 --> 00:20:24.099 driven by severe yield underperformance. And 00:20:24.099 --> 00:20:27.839 Shine dropped 327 points because his fertility 00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:30.400 and health traits completely eroded away under 00:20:30.400 --> 00:20:32.900 commercial conditions. OK, so when you dissect 00:20:32.900 --> 00:20:35.619 the pedigrees of these massive crashes, what 00:20:35.619 --> 00:20:39.140 is the underlying structural flaw? Why do some 00:20:39.140 --> 00:20:42.220 bulls plummet while others hold steady? The shared 00:20:42.220 --> 00:20:44.839 architecture of these failures is almost identical. 00:20:45.140 --> 00:20:47.880 It's heavily overpredicted type, stacked on top 00:20:47.880 --> 00:20:50.559 of weak or incredibly shallow functional traits. 00:20:50.799 --> 00:20:52.500 So they looked pretty, but couldn't function. 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:55.680 Exactly. In this specific data set, sire lines 00:20:55.680 --> 00:20:58.500 heavy on legacy and heroic on the top side of 00:20:58.500 --> 00:21:00.819 the pedigree, combined with delta on the maternal 00:21:00.819 --> 00:21:03.460 side, were heavily overrepresented in the severe 00:21:03.460 --> 00:21:06.240 crashes. So supercharge is the textbook example 00:21:06.240 --> 00:21:08.579 of this phenomenon, right? Textbook. His early 00:21:08.579 --> 00:21:10.839 genomic type score was popped up by a stack of 00:21:10.839 --> 00:21:13.019 fashionable type sires. He looked spectacular 00:21:13.019 --> 00:21:15.220 on a spreadsheet. But what actually happens to 00:21:15.220 --> 00:21:17.500 a high PTAC cow with poor health traits when 00:21:17.500 --> 00:21:19.859 she hits a commercial freestyle? Well, she might 00:21:19.859 --> 00:21:21.700 look great as a fresh two -year -old. You'll 00:21:21.700 --> 00:21:24.079 walk out to the barn and think, wow, what a beautiful 00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:27.700 heifer. But by her third lactation, the physical 00:21:27.700 --> 00:21:30.819 reality catches up. Right. Her joints wear down 00:21:30.819 --> 00:21:33.640 on the concrete. Her utter attachments stretch 00:21:33.640 --> 00:21:35.559 because she doesn't have the underlying strength 00:21:35.559 --> 00:21:39.910 to support the volume. And her somatic cell counts 00:21:39.910 --> 00:21:43.670 spikes. And then what? When those daughters calve 00:21:43.670 --> 00:21:46.410 in and hit real commercial parlors, their physical 00:21:46.410 --> 00:21:49.549 structure simply cannot hold up to the rigors 00:21:49.549 --> 00:21:52.710 of modern dairy farming. And the index violently 00:21:52.710 --> 00:21:55.009 corrects itself as the culling data rolls in. 00:21:55.130 --> 00:21:57.400 Because they just... Don't survive. Exactly. 00:21:57.400 --> 00:21:59.500 They get called. So the disappointment for a 00:21:59.500 --> 00:22:01.339 breeder isn't just a red arrow on a proof sheet. 00:22:01.579 --> 00:22:04.200 It's standing in your parlor looking at cows 00:22:04.200 --> 00:22:08.000 that physically cannot do the job they were bred 00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:10.220 to do. Which is the worst feeling as a farmer. 00:22:10.440 --> 00:22:13.240 It really is. And this reality leads us directly 00:22:13.240 --> 00:22:16.420 into dissecting one of the most pervasive, stubbornly 00:22:16.420 --> 00:22:18.539 held myths in the dairy industry. Oh, I know 00:22:18.539 --> 00:22:20.119 where you're going with this. Yep. The concept 00:22:20.119 --> 00:22:22.829 of proof deflation. The classic coffee shop myth. 00:22:22.970 --> 00:22:25.170 Explain it for us. Okay, so the assumption is 00:22:25.170 --> 00:22:27.750 that once a bull goes mainstream, his proof will 00:22:27.750 --> 00:22:31.490 inevitably crash. The logic goes that early daughters 00:22:31.490 --> 00:22:34.369 are born into elite, pampered environments where 00:22:34.369 --> 00:22:36.789 they are aggressively managed for maximum performance. 00:22:36.809 --> 00:22:38.710 Right, they get the best feed, the best care. 00:22:39.049 --> 00:22:42.410 Exactly. So the theory says once the bull is 00:22:42.410 --> 00:22:45.109 sold to the masses and the daughters are subjected 00:22:45.109 --> 00:22:47.289 to average management and crowded commercial 00:22:47.289 --> 00:22:50.599 herds, the numbers will just plummet. It sounds 00:22:50.599 --> 00:22:52.579 entirely logical. I mean, you hear that in barns 00:22:52.579 --> 00:22:54.920 all the time. You do. But the bull vine data 00:22:54.920 --> 00:22:57.599 set completely dismantles it. I love this part. 00:22:57.740 --> 00:23:00.640 The data proves the exact opposite is true. It 00:23:00.640 --> 00:23:04.000 really does. When they grouped the 165 proven 00:23:04.000 --> 00:23:06.519 bulls by how many daughters they had in December 00:23:06.519 --> 00:23:10.279 2025, the bulls with under 500 daughters lost 00:23:10.279 --> 00:23:14.859 an average of 81 .8 TPI points. Wait, the bulls 00:23:14.859 --> 00:23:16.819 with the least daughters crashed the hardest? 00:23:16.960 --> 00:23:20.049 Yes. Less than 30 % of them saw their TPI go 00:23:20.049 --> 00:23:22.529 up. But conversely, look at the heavy hitters. 00:23:23.089 --> 00:23:25.369 Bulls with over 5 ,000 daughters in their proof 00:23:25.369 --> 00:23:27.849 didn't crash at all. No, they didn't. They gained 00:23:27.849 --> 00:23:32.420 an average of 62 .3 TPI points. Two -thirds of 00:23:32.420 --> 00:23:34.920 those high -volume bulls saw their scores climb, 00:23:35.140 --> 00:23:37.119 not fall. It's incredible. The more a bull was 00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:39.859 used, the better he got. That completely shatters 00:23:39.859 --> 00:23:41.900 the coffee shop logic. Yeah. How does the data 00:23:41.900 --> 00:23:44.779 explain this? It comes down to survivorship bias 00:23:44.779 --> 00:23:47.380 and the basic mechanics of semen distribution. 00:23:48.319 --> 00:23:51.940 Think about it. If a bull reaches 5 ,000 or 10 00:23:51.940 --> 00:23:54.799 ,000 daughters, it means commercial farmers liked 00:23:54.799 --> 00:23:57.319 the first crop of calves enough to keep buying 00:23:57.319 --> 00:24:00.869 the semen. Ah, right. It's repeat business. Exactly. 00:24:01.029 --> 00:24:03.670 And more importantly, those daughters are surviving 00:24:03.670 --> 00:24:06.349 and thriving across hundreds of different varied 00:24:06.349 --> 00:24:09.569 management styles. The cream rises to the top 00:24:09.569 --> 00:24:11.730 precisely because they can handle the pressure. 00:24:11.910 --> 00:24:13.490 So the environment isn't dragging them down. 00:24:13.529 --> 00:24:15.089 They're proving they can handle any environment. 00:24:15.230 --> 00:24:18.269 Exactly. Look at Larkrest captivating. He hit 00:24:18.269 --> 00:24:22.009 14 ,000 daughters. Sandy Valliar Conway hit 12 00:24:22.009 --> 00:24:24.630 ,000 daughters and he actually gained 22 points. 00:24:24.670 --> 00:24:26.609 And then we have the ultimate volume winner. 00:24:27.000 --> 00:24:28.619 The bull that completely caught the industry 00:24:28.619 --> 00:24:30.900 by surprise. Oh, man. Seymour's ran again. Perfect. 00:24:31.240 --> 00:24:34.799 Perfect. In April 2020, he was sitting down at 00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:38.720 number 150 on the genomic TPI list with 2980 00:24:38.720 --> 00:24:42.000 GTPI. Which was a solid score, but he wasn't 00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:44.539 headlining any catalogs. Right. He was incredibly 00:24:44.539 --> 00:24:47.599 easy to skim past. Yeah. But by December 2025, 00:24:48.220 --> 00:24:52.579 Parfect had accumulated 19 ,079 daughters. Let 00:24:52.579 --> 00:24:54.779 the sheer scale of that number sink in for a 00:24:54.779 --> 00:24:59.680 second. 19 ,000 daughters spread across 2 ,627 00:24:59.680 --> 00:25:02.740 different herds. That is the highest daughter 00:25:02.740 --> 00:25:06.359 count of any single bull in this entire 401 bull 00:25:06.359 --> 00:25:09.619 data set. It's massive. And his TPI didn't drop 00:25:09.619 --> 00:25:11.420 under the weight of all his commercial herds. 00:25:11.420 --> 00:25:15.579 It climbed. You gain 144 points, jumping to 3124 00:25:15.579 --> 00:25:18.180 TPI. But you know what the most staggering statistic 00:25:18.180 --> 00:25:21.859 about Parfitt is? The type data. Yes, his physical 00:25:21.859 --> 00:25:25.150 confirmation data. Out of the 165 bulls that 00:25:25.150 --> 00:25:27.769 actually got a proof, he was the only bull whose 00:25:27.769 --> 00:25:30.150 PTAT went up. The only one. His type went from 00:25:30.150 --> 00:25:34.650 plus 1 .80 genomic to plus 1 .88 proven. That 00:25:34.650 --> 00:25:36.789 is unbelievable. What's his pedigree? He's a 00:25:36.789 --> 00:25:40.549 renegade by Delta Lambda by Denver, and he traces 00:25:40.549 --> 00:25:44.130 back to the legendary Seymour's Elmda Paris cow 00:25:44.130 --> 00:25:46.509 family. The logistics of his impact are immense, 00:25:46.710 --> 00:25:49.910 too. He sold roughly 450 ,000 units of semen 00:25:49.910 --> 00:25:52.390 worldwide. And he's still an allocated bull today. 00:25:52.960 --> 00:25:55.740 Because global demand drastically outpaces how 00:25:55.740 --> 00:25:58.240 much semen he can physically produce. You talk 00:25:58.240 --> 00:26:00.420 to producers running massive freestyle setups, 00:26:00.640 --> 00:26:03.160 and they call Parfitt a generational talent. 00:26:03.359 --> 00:26:05.839 Oh, absolutely. He's throwing well -balanced 00:26:05.839 --> 00:26:08.779 positive milk, strong component cows with bulletproof 00:26:08.779 --> 00:26:11.220 udders and rumps that simply do not break down. 00:26:11.420 --> 00:26:13.160 The core lesson of the Parfitt story is that 00:26:13.160 --> 00:26:16.799 past a certain point, volume is truth. I love 00:26:16.799 --> 00:26:19.930 that phrase. Volume is truth. When 19 ,000 daughters 00:26:19.930 --> 00:26:22.349 across 2 ,600 herds are all telling the exact 00:26:22.349 --> 00:26:25.470 same story, you are way past this small sample 00:26:25.470 --> 00:26:28.289 size excuse. The proof is undeniable. So if you 00:26:28.289 --> 00:26:30.269 are analyzing your own sire list right now, the 00:26:30.269 --> 00:26:32.329 question you have to ask yourself is, are you 00:26:32.329 --> 00:26:34.970 ignoring these volume metrics in favor of chasing 00:26:34.970 --> 00:26:37.250 the shiny new genomic toy with zero daughters? 00:26:37.769 --> 00:26:40.230 Right, because a bull with 10 ,000 daughters 00:26:40.230 --> 00:26:43.650 is offering guaranteed profitability based on 00:26:43.650 --> 00:26:47.430 ironclad data, while a virgin young sire is still 00:26:47.430 --> 00:26:50.890 a 59 % gamble. Exactly. It's a massive calculation 00:26:50.890 --> 00:26:54.170 of risk. And that risk is something the AI studs 00:26:54.170 --> 00:26:56.769 themselves had to aggressively navigate over 00:26:56.769 --> 00:26:59.509 this exact same five -year window. Yeah, because 00:26:59.509 --> 00:27:01.990 these bulls don't exist in a vacuum, right? They 00:27:01.990 --> 00:27:05.569 are bred, acquired, and marketed by massive corporate 00:27:05.569 --> 00:27:08.630 breeding companies. So by analyzing how the different 00:27:08.630 --> 00:27:11.589 AI companies performed over this window, we can 00:27:11.589 --> 00:27:13.670 clearly see which corporate breeding programs 00:27:13.670 --> 00:27:16.130 were anticipating the future and which ones were 00:27:16.130 --> 00:27:18.190 stuck peddling the past. This part of the analysis 00:27:18.190 --> 00:27:21.000 is really revealing. It is. The undeniable winner 00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:24.400 in this retrospective was ST Genetics. Undeniable. 00:27:24.440 --> 00:27:26.859 They were the only major stud whose retained 00:27:26.859 --> 00:27:30.079 bulls actually gained TPI points on average. 00:27:30.359 --> 00:27:32.140 Their entire lineup went up an average of plus 00:27:32.140 --> 00:27:34.940 21 .8 points. Which is crazy when you remember 00:27:34.940 --> 00:27:38.660 the cohort average was minus 42. Right. Now Captain 00:27:38.660 --> 00:27:40.779 was obviously the massive anchor pulling that 00:27:40.779 --> 00:27:43.000 average up, along with his clone brothers Jack 00:27:43.000 --> 00:27:45.640 and John. But it wasn't just a Captain anomaly. 00:27:46.140 --> 00:27:50.339 No. Bulls like Holden gained 111 points. Jarvis 00:27:50.339 --> 00:27:54.420 gained 76 points. So what exactly was ST Genetics 00:27:54.420 --> 00:27:56.799 doing differently behind the scenes to win this 00:27:56.799 --> 00:27:59.559 five -year window so decisively? Well, they won 00:27:59.559 --> 00:28:01.619 because their overarching corporate strategy 00:28:01.619 --> 00:28:04.200 was obsessively targeting feed conversion and 00:28:04.200 --> 00:28:06.900 solids long before the TPI formula officially 00:28:06.900 --> 00:28:08.880 rewarded them. They were playing the long game. 00:28:08.960 --> 00:28:11.539 They really were. Through their chromosomal mating 00:28:11.539 --> 00:28:14.240 and their proprietary ecofeed programs, they 00:28:14.240 --> 00:28:16.480 were literally measuring the dry matter intake 00:28:16.480 --> 00:28:18.900 of individual animals, and they were breeding 00:28:18.900 --> 00:28:22.660 for the 2025 milk check way back in 2018. Wow. 00:28:22.920 --> 00:28:26.160 So when the TPI formula finally updated in 2021 00:28:26.160 --> 00:28:29.089 to penalize big hungry cows, and reward -efficient 00:28:29.089 --> 00:28:31.789 ones, ST's lineup was already genetically positioned 00:28:31.789 --> 00:28:34.529 to dominate the new math. They anticipated the 00:28:34.529 --> 00:28:36.869 market shift perfectly. Okay, so that's ST Genetics. 00:28:36.930 --> 00:28:39.029 Let's look at the middle of the pack. Peak represented 00:28:39.029 --> 00:28:41.769 what we could call the safe center. Yeah, safe 00:28:41.769 --> 00:28:43.910 and steady. They had the highest retention rate 00:28:43.910 --> 00:28:47.170 of any major stud. They successfully proved 52 00:28:47.170 --> 00:28:50.710 .8 % of their bulls from this elite list. And 00:28:50.710 --> 00:28:54.690 their average TPI drop was only minus 36, which 00:28:54.690 --> 00:28:57.150 is notably better than the cohort average of 00:28:57.150 --> 00:29:01.349 minus 42 .5. Right. So Peak didn't have the 300 00:29:01.349 --> 00:29:03.750 -point moonshots like Captain, but they also 00:29:03.750 --> 00:29:06.710 avoided the catastrophic 300 -point crashes. 00:29:07.069 --> 00:29:09.170 They leaned heavily into predictable balance 00:29:09.170 --> 00:29:12.970 genetics. Bulls like Zillion and Alta Zazale. 00:29:13.109 --> 00:29:15.380 And honestly... For a commercial farmer whose 00:29:15.380 --> 00:29:18.079 primary goal is risk mitigation, peak strategy 00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:20.539 is exactly what lets you sleep well at night. 00:29:20.700 --> 00:29:22.960 Right. You know what you're getting, and the 00:29:22.960 --> 00:29:24.839 genetic base isn't going to pull the rug out 00:29:24.839 --> 00:29:26.900 from under your operation. Exactly. Then you 00:29:26.900 --> 00:29:29.279 have slick sires. They operated with what looks 00:29:29.279 --> 00:29:32.059 like a barbell strategy, high ceiling, deep floor. 00:29:32.279 --> 00:29:34.059 Yeah, it was a wild ride for them. They retained 00:29:34.059 --> 00:29:37.240 40 .6 % of their bulls, but they had an incredibly 00:29:37.240 --> 00:29:40.559 widespread. They had 16 bulls that gained points, 00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:43.650 including... massive successes like Payload, 00:29:43.750 --> 00:29:46.029 Crusher, and Game Day. But on the flip side, 00:29:46.210 --> 00:29:49.029 they also own four of the six worst crashes in 00:29:49.029 --> 00:29:51.390 the entire analysis. Including Homecoming and 00:29:51.390 --> 00:29:54.250 Supercharge. Yep. So if a farmer spread their 00:29:54.250 --> 00:29:56.569 matings across the entire Select Sires lineup, 00:29:56.789 --> 00:29:59.390 they likely performed just fine as the massive 00:29:59.390 --> 00:30:01.450 winners balanced out the catastrophic losers. 00:30:01.849 --> 00:30:04.769 However, if a farmer concentrated all their bets 00:30:04.769 --> 00:30:07.470 on a couple of high PTAT pedigrees from Select 00:30:07.470 --> 00:30:11.690 that later deflated, December 2025 was a brutally 00:30:11.690 --> 00:30:14.730 painful proof run to evaluate. Extremely painful. 00:30:15.029 --> 00:30:16.750 Finally, we have to look at the stud that had 00:30:16.750 --> 00:30:19.170 the roughest ride in this specific 2020 look 00:30:19.170 --> 00:30:22.119 back, ABS Global. Yeah, the numbers here are 00:30:22.119 --> 00:30:24.299 tough. They started with the highest number of 00:30:24.299 --> 00:30:26.880 bulls on the 2020 elite list, but ended up with 00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:30.160 the lowest retention rate, just 39 .3%. And their 00:30:30.160 --> 00:30:31.980 retained bulls suffered the steepest average 00:30:31.980 --> 00:30:35.200 decline among the majors, dropping minus 70 .6 00:30:35.200 --> 00:30:38.240 TPI points. So if ABS dropped that steeply, it 00:30:38.240 --> 00:30:40.400 tells me they were overly exposed to the old 00:30:40.400 --> 00:30:42.799 rules. Were they banking too hard on the old 00:30:42.799 --> 00:30:45.339 metrics? Precisely. They were heavily exposed 00:30:45.339 --> 00:30:48.259 to the outdated index. Many of their high -profile 00:30:48.259 --> 00:30:51.099 young sires in 2020 were built on extreme daughter 00:30:51.099 --> 00:30:54.200 pregnancy rate and high milk large frame daughters. 00:30:54.579 --> 00:30:57.200 And as we discussed, when the industry pivoted 00:30:57.200 --> 00:30:59.480 to prioritize feed efficiency and cow conception 00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:02.359 rate, those specific profiles became economically 00:31:02.359 --> 00:31:05.500 obsolete incredibly fast. Exactly. The sheer 00:31:05.500 --> 00:31:08.900 volume of heroic and prince sons that fell off 00:31:08.900 --> 00:31:11.829 the map just pulled their entire tile stud average 00:31:11.829 --> 00:31:14.430 down. Now, it is absolutely worth noting that 00:31:14.650 --> 00:31:17.569 ABS hasn't just sat on their hands. They've aggressively 00:31:17.569 --> 00:31:20.549 adjusted their acquisition strategy, recently 00:31:20.549 --> 00:31:24.130 introducing 36 new Holstein graduates to realign 00:31:24.130 --> 00:31:26.670 with the new TPI standards. Yeah, they are correcting 00:31:26.670 --> 00:31:29.390 course. But their trajectory perfectly illustrates 00:31:29.390 --> 00:31:32.410 how quickly a stud's portfolio can depreciate 00:31:32.410 --> 00:31:34.750 if the mathematical formula changes direction. 00:31:34.970 --> 00:31:37.309 It really does. So look, all of this history, 00:31:37.430 --> 00:31:40.210 the complex math of the base changes, the deep 00:31:40.210 --> 00:31:42.569 dive into the corporate strategies, it all has 00:31:42.569 --> 00:31:44.789 to synthesize into something. actionable. We 00:31:44.789 --> 00:31:46.970 have to turn this historical analysis into a 00:31:46.970 --> 00:31:49.490 concrete, executable strategy for the farm today. 00:31:49.970 --> 00:31:53.509 Exactly. So what does this all mean? If a farmer 00:31:53.509 --> 00:31:55.549 is listening to this right now, walking out of 00:31:55.549 --> 00:31:57.490 the parlor and looking at their semen inventory 00:31:57.490 --> 00:32:00.369 for next month's breeding, what are the immediate 00:32:00.369 --> 00:32:02.910 rules of thumb they need to apply to protect 00:32:02.910 --> 00:32:05.190 their milk check? Let's break this down into 00:32:05.190 --> 00:32:07.509 a five -point action plan. Okay, hit me. Number 00:32:07.509 --> 00:32:10.670 one, audit your reliability stack within the 00:32:10.670 --> 00:32:13.210 next 30 days. So what does that look like practically? 00:32:13.690 --> 00:32:16.430 Print your current sire list and rigorously cross 00:32:16.430 --> 00:32:18.950 -reference every bull's reliability percentage 00:32:18.950 --> 00:32:22.210 against the current proofs. Treat any bull with 00:32:22.210 --> 00:32:25.730 under 70 % reliability as a raw, genomic young 00:32:25.730 --> 00:32:29.250 sire. Period. Even if he technically has a handful 00:32:29.250 --> 00:32:31.509 of daughters milking in one or two herds. Yes. 00:32:31.950 --> 00:32:35.410 65 % reliability is not a sure thing. It is a 00:32:35.410 --> 00:32:38.250 mathematical gamble. Identify your bulls with 00:32:38.250 --> 00:32:41.509 over 90 % reliability. Those are your shock absorbers. 00:32:41.650 --> 00:32:44.109 You need a rock -solid foundation of 90 -plus 00:32:44.109 --> 00:32:46.890 reliability to protect your herd from the 59 00:32:46.890 --> 00:32:49.369 % attrition rate we saw in the young sires. Exactly, 00:32:49.529 --> 00:32:51.890 which perfectly leads into point number two. 00:32:52.349 --> 00:32:55.309 Balance your proven versus genomic usage intentionally. 00:32:55.789 --> 00:32:59.109 Do not let this split happen by accident or based 00:32:59.109 --> 00:33:01.509 on whichever semen rep happens to visit the farm 00:33:01.509 --> 00:33:03.650 that week. Right. You have to take control of 00:33:03.650 --> 00:33:06.180 it. For a commercial Holstein herd focused on 00:33:06.180 --> 00:33:08.819 profitability, the pragmatic split is aiming 00:33:08.819 --> 00:33:11.859 for 50 to 70 % of your meetings on those high 00:33:11.859 --> 00:33:14.759 reliability proven sires that deliver proven 00:33:14.759 --> 00:33:17.480 solids and efficiency. Let them pay the bills 00:33:17.480 --> 00:33:20.980 and build the foundation. Right. Then allocate 00:33:20.980 --> 00:33:24.259 the remaining 30 to 50 % on genomic young sires. 00:33:24.319 --> 00:33:27.359 But crucially, spread that genomic risk across 00:33:27.359 --> 00:33:30.180 four to six entirely different sire lines. Right. 00:33:30.299 --> 00:33:33.059 Diversify. Do not put all your genomic eggs in 00:33:33.059 --> 00:33:35.599 one pedigree basket. Because if one line crashes 00:33:35.599 --> 00:33:37.779 like homecoming, the others buffer the loss. 00:33:38.339 --> 00:33:40.380 Precisely. Okay, point three is something breeders 00:33:40.380 --> 00:33:42.539 often ignore until they are culling a three -year 00:33:42.539 --> 00:33:45.700 -old cow. Run a type fragility check. This is 00:33:45.700 --> 00:33:47.900 so important. We saw exactly what happened with 00:33:47.900 --> 00:33:49.960 the massive crashes like Supercharge and Shine. 00:33:50.200 --> 00:33:52.460 They weren't derailed because they lacked fluid 00:33:52.460 --> 00:33:54.880 milk. No, they were derailed because they featured 00:33:54.880 --> 00:33:58.279 overpredicted type combined with inherently weak 00:33:58.279 --> 00:34:00.660 health and fertility traits. Right. Exactly. 00:34:00.660 --> 00:34:02.940 So before you load up your tank with the next 00:34:02.940 --> 00:34:05.619 PTAT rocket, you know, a bull boasting a massive 00:34:05.619 --> 00:34:09.000 plus 3 .5 type score, you have to dig into his 00:34:09.000 --> 00:34:12.130 pedigree. Look at his sire's history. Scrutinize 00:34:12.130 --> 00:34:15.309 his maternal grandsire. Evaluate his health and 00:34:15.309 --> 00:34:17.710 fertility stack. Right. If his pedigree is all 00:34:17.710 --> 00:34:21.010 glitz and glamour with no actual biological ballast, 00:34:21.190 --> 00:34:24.030 do not use him across your commercial free stall 00:34:24.030 --> 00:34:26.409 herd. Save him for your flesh cows, your donors, 00:34:26.510 --> 00:34:28.469 or your show string. Because building a commercial 00:34:28.469 --> 00:34:31.070 milking string out of biologically fragile animals 00:34:31.070 --> 00:34:33.909 is financial suicide. It really is. Now, point 00:34:33.909 --> 00:34:36.590 four dictates how we interpret data. Treat daughter 00:34:36.590 --> 00:34:39.920 and herd counts as rigid filters. not fine print. 00:34:40.199 --> 00:34:41.960 This goes back to the coffee shop myth, right? 00:34:42.000 --> 00:34:45.159 Yep. Returning to that, a bull with 300 daughters 00:34:45.159 --> 00:34:47.760 and 20 herds is still fundamentally on trial. 00:34:47.980 --> 00:34:50.719 The data is vulnerable to management bias. But 00:34:50.719 --> 00:34:53.260 a bull with 2 ,000 or 10 ,000 daughters spread 00:34:53.260 --> 00:34:56.119 across hundreds of herds is telling you the absolute, 00:34:56.340 --> 00:34:59.099 unvarnished truth about who he is. Exactly. When 00:34:59.099 --> 00:35:01.199 you are selecting sires, filter by the number 00:35:01.199 --> 00:35:04.099 of herds. Make that a mandatory, non -negotiable 00:35:04.099 --> 00:35:06.679 part of your selection criteria. I love that. 00:35:06.880 --> 00:35:10.599 And finally, point five. Align with solids and 00:35:10.599 --> 00:35:12.880 efficiency economics. Because at the end of the 00:35:12.880 --> 00:35:15.460 day, it's about the milk check. Fat and protein 00:35:15.460 --> 00:35:17.800 are what drive the global dairy economy right 00:35:17.800 --> 00:35:20.440 now. Fluid volume is nice for bragging rights, 00:35:20.599 --> 00:35:23.190 but solids pay the mortgage. They really do. 00:35:23.429 --> 00:35:25.570 You need to focus intensely on feed efficiency 00:35:25.570 --> 00:35:28.909 dollars and net merit. Pick sires that put more 00:35:28.909 --> 00:35:31.449 pounds of combined fat and protein into the bulk 00:35:31.449 --> 00:35:34.130 tank without requiring a disproportionate increase 00:35:34.130 --> 00:35:36.849 in dry matter intake. Because the TPI formula 00:35:36.849 --> 00:35:39.710 is finally rewarding these cows, and your milk 00:35:39.710 --> 00:35:41.829 processor has been paying premiums for them for 00:35:41.829 --> 00:35:44.230 years. So to bring this entirely into focus, 00:35:44.550 --> 00:35:47.570 genomics isn't broken. It remains the absolute 00:35:47.570 --> 00:35:51.099 sharpest tool in the breeding shed. But index 00:35:51.099 --> 00:35:53.639 volatility is a reality you have to actively 00:35:53.639 --> 00:35:55.639 manage. You essentially have to act like an investment 00:35:55.639 --> 00:35:58.420 manager. You blend the proven blue -chip stability 00:35:58.420 --> 00:36:00.699 of high -daughter bulls like Parfict and Captain 00:36:00.699 --> 00:36:03.420 with the high -risk, high -reward venture capital 00:36:03.420 --> 00:36:06.900 upside of young genomic sires. That is the perfect 00:36:06.900 --> 00:36:09.139 analogy. And you know, the broader implications 00:36:09.139 --> 00:36:11.840 of this analysis raise a fascinating, almost 00:36:11.840 --> 00:36:14.099 unsettling thought about the future of dairy 00:36:14.099 --> 00:36:17.619 genetics. Ooh, okay. What are you thinking? We've 00:36:17.619 --> 00:36:20.360 spent this time dissecting how human -made formulas 00:36:20.360 --> 00:36:24.000 like the base change and the TPI updates periodically 00:36:24.000 --> 00:36:27.519 adjust to correct past errors in how we value 00:36:27.519 --> 00:36:30.820 a cow. We execute this clunky manual process 00:36:30.820 --> 00:36:33.659 every five years or whenever a committee decides 00:36:33.659 --> 00:36:36.260 it's necessary. It's incredibly reactive. We 00:36:36.260 --> 00:36:38.400 wait for the problem to become undeniable and 00:36:38.400 --> 00:36:40.599 then we forcefully adjust the math to catch up 00:36:40.599 --> 00:36:42.820 to reality. Right. But look at the trajectory 00:36:42.820 --> 00:36:46.159 of technology. As AI and machine learning increasingly 00:36:46.159 --> 00:36:48.659 infiltrate genetic evaluations over the next 00:36:48.659 --> 00:36:51.039 decade, what happens when the five -year base 00:36:51.039 --> 00:36:53.519 change becomes entirely obsolete? Wait, you mean 00:36:53.519 --> 00:36:56.420 like a constant evaluation? Yes. Imagine a scenario 00:36:56.420 --> 00:36:58.639 where traits are automatically reweighted by 00:36:58.639 --> 00:37:01.719 an AI based on global milk market futures, feed 00:37:01.719 --> 00:37:04.639 costs, and climate data. Not every five years, 00:37:04.699 --> 00:37:08.099 but continuously. Oh, wow. So if the butterfat 00:37:08.099 --> 00:37:11.269 market spikes in Asia on a Tuesday? and corn 00:37:11.269 --> 00:37:14.309 prices surge on a Wednesday, your bull's index 00:37:14.309 --> 00:37:17.590 automatically adjusts on Thursday to reflect 00:37:17.590 --> 00:37:20.530 the real -time economic reality of what it costs 00:37:20.530 --> 00:37:22.690 to feed a cow versus what her milk is worth. 00:37:22.829 --> 00:37:25.489 Exactly. The yardstick would never stop moving. 00:37:25.650 --> 00:37:28.429 That is wild to think about. If the index is 00:37:28.429 --> 00:37:31.110 constantly adjusting in real time, how do you 00:37:31.110 --> 00:37:33.829 breed a cow? Do you chase the daily algorithm, 00:37:33.969 --> 00:37:36.710 constantly pivoting your semen purchases based 00:37:36.710 --> 00:37:39.559 on micro fluctuations in the market? Or do you 00:37:39.559 --> 00:37:42.260 anchor yourself to the fundamental, unchanging 00:37:42.260 --> 00:37:45.460 biology of a healthy, moderate, efficient cow 00:37:45.460 --> 00:37:48.099 that can survive any economic weather? That is 00:37:48.099 --> 00:37:50.500 the ultimate question to mull over next time 00:37:50.500 --> 00:37:52.039 you're standing in the parlor. It really is. 00:37:52.360 --> 00:37:54.260 Well, thank you for joining us on this deep dive. 00:37:54.400 --> 00:37:56.420 Do yourself a favor tonight. Pull out your old 00:37:56.420 --> 00:37:59.699 semen invoices from 2020 and 2021. Match them 00:37:59.699 --> 00:38:02.460 up against your current December 2025 proof file. 00:38:02.679 --> 00:38:04.860 See how many of those genomic bets actually paid 00:38:04.860 --> 00:38:06.780 off and how many vanished before they ever hit 00:38:06.780 --> 00:38:08.539 the tank. It's going to be an eye -opening exercise 00:38:08.539 --> 00:38:10.360 for a lot of people. We'll see you next time.