WEBVTT

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Creeping over fields of green Remembering the

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faces The moments unseen The hands that built

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a dynasty The vision in their eyes Echoes in

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the auction bar Beneath an endless sky This is

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the bull buy Turn the bar Welcome back to the

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Bullvine Podcast. Today we are sharing a story

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that, honestly, it stopped us in our tracks.

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Yeah, it really is. This is the kind of conversation

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that reminds you exactly why you got into dairy

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in the first place. Absolutely. Yeah. So I want

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you to picture this scenario for a moment. Just

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put yourself right there. Okay. You're standing

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in the farm office. It's that quiet, just...

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brutally early hour before the sun is even thinking

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about coming up. Right. The coffee's barely kicking

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in. Exactly. The barn is just starting to wake

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up. You can hear the hum of the bulk tank and

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you have your herd's latest genetics report spread

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out on the desk. Under that harsh, buzzing, fluorescent

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light. We all know that light. You know the one.

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And you are tracing your finger down the columns

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of data, looking at the projections for your

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replacement heifers. and you see a number that

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makes your stomach completely drop. A number

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nobody wants to see. The number is 9 .99%. Wow.

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That is the average inbreeding coefficient for

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the animals that are supposed to be the entire

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future of your dairy operation. Almost 10%. Now,

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if you explain that to just, you know, a person

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on the street, it might just sound like a dry

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statistic. But for anyone whose livelihood depends

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on milking cows, What does a number like 9 .99

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% actually mean for the reality of their daily

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life? It means the margin for error on your farm

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has effectively vanished. Poof. Gone. Exactly.

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Gone. At a nearly 10 % inbreeding coefficient,

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you are no longer just looking at a spreadsheet

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problem. You are looking at a biological ceiling

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pressing down on your entire herd. Right. When

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a population of animals becomes that genetically

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similar, you lose the biological resilience required

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to handle the daily stresses of, you know, being

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a high producing dairy cow. Because it's a massive

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physiological stress. Oh, absolutely. You start

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seeing these invisible ceilings on milk production

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that no amount of premium feed can. breakthrough,

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you start dealing with phantom fertility issues.

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Phantom issues, like what? Like cows that simply

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will not settle no matter what you do, driving

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your veterinary bills through the roof. And ultimately,

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you see an early exit from the herd. The cows

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just, they just do not last. It's the genetic

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equivalent of painting yourself into a corner.

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And the paint is drying. The paint is drying

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incredibly fast right now for a massive portion

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of the global dairy industry. That paints just

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a stark, terrifying picture of the stakes. And

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that is... exactly the landscape we are going

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to explore in today's deep dive. We really need

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to get into this. We do, because we have gathered

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a fascinating stack of agricultural analyses,

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historical pedigree data, specific herd management

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playbooks, and all of these sources point to

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this massive systemic crisis in modern dairy

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farming, which is the shrinking of the genetic

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base. But there is a silver lining in all this

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data. There is. More importantly, the material

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points to a very strange, very unexpected historical

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blueprint for survival. Our mission today is

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to look at how five historical Plan B bulls somehow

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saved the Holstein breed from catastrophic genetic

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bottlenecks in the past. Plan B bulls. I love

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that. Right. We are talking about bulls that

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were ignored, overlooked, or actively laughed

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out of the show ring by the mainstream establishment.

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And the pattern hidden in the history of these

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five bulls is what makes this deep dive so critical

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for anyone managing a herd today. It's the roadmap.

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It is. We are going to look at walkway chief

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Mark. Carol Preludman, Toto, Oman, Blitz, and

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Elevation. These were not the million -dollar

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cover boys of the Sire catalogs. Or from it.

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They were the backups, the ugly ducklings, the

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total accidents. Yet... Their specific genetic

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blueprints ended up being the exact life rafts

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the industry desperately needed at various crisis

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points over the last 60 years. So the goal is

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to extract the survival lessons from these genetic

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titans. Exactly. And translate their history

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into actionable concrete barn math for your own

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operation today. Because the relentless pursuit

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of single trait perfection that created the crises

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of the past, that is the exact same pressure

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driving that 9 .99 % inbreeding number you're

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looking at right now. Let's establish the sheer

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scale of the current landscape before we dive

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into the history. Because the Lactanic Canada

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data specifically points out that Canadian Holstein

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heifers born in 2024 are hitting that 9 .99 %

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inbreeding mark. That's right now. That's today.

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Yes. And young sires across the board are running

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at 9 to 10%. So when we talk about inbreeding

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depression, what is actually happening at a cellular

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level that causes these production and health

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ceilings? It comes down to how recessive treats

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function within a closed population. Every animal,

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humans included, carries a certain number of

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recessive mutations. Flaws in the code. Right,

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flaws in the genetic code that are masked by

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a dominant, healthy gene from the other parent.

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As long as the population is diverse, the chances

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of two identical recessive mutations pairing

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up in an offspring are incredibly low. Because

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the gene pool is deep enough. Exactly. But when

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the entire Holstein breed starts using the exact

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same top 5 or 10 bulls for a decade straight,

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you are heavily concentrating those specific

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genes. You're shrinking the pool to a puddle.

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At 10 % inbreeding, the mathematical probability

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of an animal inheriting the exact same broken

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piece of DNA from both sides of its pedigree

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skyrockets. And when they pair up. When those

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negative recessive traits pair up, they express

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themselves. That is biological inbreeding depression.

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It manifests as a weakened immune system, poor

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feet and legs, lower milk components, and just

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a general foilty. It just makes the cow incapable

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of handling the metabolic demands of lactation.

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She just can't do the job she was bred to do.

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That explains the biology perfectly. But the

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sources also dive deep into the raw economics

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of this crisis, which is where it really hits

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home. The wallet. Yes. There is a massive study

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referenced here focusing on 27 ,735 Italian Holstein

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cows. Why did researchers choose to look specifically

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at the Italian dairy industry to understand the

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financial cost of inbreeding? The Italian dairy

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economy provides a brilliant, highly controlled

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environment to measure economic loss, and it's

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primarily because of Parmigiano -Reggiano cheese.

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Oh, interesting. Why cheese? The Parmigiano -Reggiano

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consortium operates under incredibly strict rules.

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The cheese has to be made from raw milk, no additives,

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and it requires a very specific dense profile

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of fat and casein protein to age properly over

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several years. So they're incredibly sensitive

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to the exact makeup of the milk. Precisely. Because

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the milk is paid for based entirely on its cheese

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-yielding capabilities, meaning the total volume

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of fat and protein solids, any drop in milk quality

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is instantly reflected in the farmer's milk check.

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No hiding it. None. So researchers tracked over

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27 ,000 cows to see exactly what happened to

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those milk solids as the inbreeding coefficient

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rose. And what did the data show when those genetic

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lines got too close? The data was staggering,

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just staggering. They found that severe inbreeding

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depresses the fat and protein yield so drastically

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that it costs a farm the equivalent of over half

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a wheel of Parmigiano -Reggiano per cow per lactation.

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Wait, half a wheel of cheese? Over half a wheel

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per cow every single lactation. That is a brilliant

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way to visualize the loss. It takes an abstract

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concept like genetic depression and turns it

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into a physical product being carved away and

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just taken right off your table. It makes the

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invisible cost highly visible. In hard currency,

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the researchers calculated that this equates

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to roughly 310 to 600 euros per cow. per lactation,

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simply vanishing. Poof, gone. Right. The genetic

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engine of the cow is bogged down, so she eats

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the same amount of expensive feed. She takes

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up the exact same space in the barn, requires

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the same labor to milk, but produces significantly

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less cheese -yielding solid. If we run that math

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out for a typical commercial operation, I mean,

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the numbers get alarming very quickly. Do the

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math. Okay. If you are losing, let's say, 500

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euros or roughly $550 per cow per lactation,

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and you are milking a 200 -cow herd. Which is

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a very standard size. Right. That is $110 ,000

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evaporating in a single year. Multiply that by

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the three or four lactations you hope to get

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from a healthy cow, and you are suddenly looking

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at hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost lifetime

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revenue. Just gone. And this is not happening

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because of bad feed or poor heat detection or

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a dirty milking parlor. It is happening purely

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because the industry got too efficient at breeding

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for a very specific type of perfection and the

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irony of the situation is profound the dairy

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industry's absolute obsession with perfection

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is what built this exact trap also For decades,

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the breeding world has chased the top of the

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TPI lists. The Total Performance Index. Right.

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The TPI is a formula that ranks bulls based on

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a weighted combination of milk yield, utter conformation,

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and various health traits. The problem is that

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when a computer model tells the entire global

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industry that five specific bulls are the absolute

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most profitable. Everyone uses those exact same

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five bulls. Everyone? The sons of those bulls

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become the next generation of sires. The daughters

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become the bull mothers. It's an echo chamber.

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Within a few generations, you've engineered a

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magnificent high -producing animal, but you have

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also engineered a severe genetic bottleneck.

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So how do we fix it? Well, to understand how

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to break out of a modern bottleneck like this,

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we have to look at how the breed accidentally

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saved itself from similar corners in the past.

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And that brings us to the first major historical

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accident in our sources. It centers around a

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bull named Walkway Chief Monk. Ah, Mark. What

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a story. Walkway Chief Mark's story is so fascinating

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because his entire legacy as the savior of the

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breed is rooted in a sudden crisis that happened

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to a completely different animal. The classic

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backup plan. Exactly. The historical data takes

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us back to 1978. Select Sires, which is one of

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the largest artificial insemination cooperatives

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in the world, had their sights set on a young

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sire named Monroe. He was the guy. He was. The

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industry magazines were hyping him up. He was

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a son of the legendary Pawnee farm Arlinda Chief

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out of a highly regarded cow named Walkway Matt

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Mamie. Monroe was contracted to be the golden

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boy, the catalog cover star. The plan A. The

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plan A. But what actually happens to the plan

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A in this scenario? The plan A simply drops dead.

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Monroe died during his initial test services

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at the cooperative before the technicians could

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even freeze a single straw of his semen for commercial

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sale. Oh my God. Imagine being the guy who bought

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him. You have to put yourself in the shoes of

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Charlie Will, the young sire analyst for Select

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Sires at the time. This was one of his very first

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major acquisitions. The pressure must have been

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intense. Unbelievable pressure. His marquee signing,

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the bull that was supposed to drive sales and

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define the cooperative's lineup for the next

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five years, is suddenly gone. So what does he

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do? He had to pivot immediately. He looked at

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Monroe's pedigree and went back to the breeder

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to buy Monroe's full brother as a backup. The

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understudy. The understudy. That backup brother

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was walkway chief Mark. Okay, let's pause and

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look at where Mark actually came from. Because

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his origin stands in such stark contrast to the

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glitz and glamour of high -end show ring cattle

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breeding. It really does. Mark was born on Foster

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Walk's farm, located outside the small town of

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Neoga, Illinois. This was not the type of farm

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that generated buzz in the glossy pages of the

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Holstein World Classifieds, was it? Not at all.

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Foster Walk was a quintessential, gritty, commercial

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dairyman. Working in the mud. Exactly. His breeding

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philosophy was completely removed from the catalog

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hype. At one point, the records indicate he was

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buying groups of commodity heifers for 21 cents

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a pound. 21 cents a pound. He was effectively

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buying animals at commodity beef pricing and

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building a dairy herd from them. He didn't care

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about flashy pedigrees or show ring ribbons.

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He bred strictly for raw, practical cow scents.

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He just wanted cows that worked. He wanted cows

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that got to work, milked hard, and stayed out

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of the way. It is incredible to think that one

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of the most genetically influential animals of

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the 20th century emerged from a herd built on

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21 cent a pound commodity heifers. From absolute

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obscurity. Right. So Charlie Will brings this

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unglamorous backup bull, Mark, into the select

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sire's lineup. When his first crop of daughters

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finally freshen and enter the milking parlors

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across the country, what exactly does the industry

00:13:31.379 --> 00:13:33.440
see that makes them lose their collective minds

00:13:33.440 --> 00:13:36.460
over him? They saw the udders. The udders. The

00:13:36.460 --> 00:13:39.700
boom was instantaneous and undeniable. In the

00:13:39.700 --> 00:13:42.779
early 1980s, the Holstein breed was really struggling

00:13:42.779 --> 00:13:45.980
with udder confirmation as milk volumes increased.

00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:48.259
Because they were pushing for more yield. Right.

00:13:48.539 --> 00:13:50.820
Cows were producing more milk, but their udders

00:13:50.820 --> 00:13:52.759
were not physically strong enough to carry that

00:13:52.759 --> 00:13:55.320
weight. You had deep pendulous udders that were

00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:58.500
prone to mastitis, easily injured, and difficult

00:13:58.500 --> 00:14:01.500
to attach to milking machines. A management nightmare.

00:14:01.580 --> 00:14:04.879
A total nightmare. But Mark completely revolutionized

00:14:04.879 --> 00:14:07.919
the bovine udder. His daughters exhibited four

00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:10.340
attachments that blended smoothly into the body

00:14:10.340 --> 00:14:13.179
wall, incredibly high and wide rear attachments,

00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:16.159
perfect teat placement. And they lasted. Yes.

00:14:16.179 --> 00:14:18.659
A shallow, utter depth that kept the mammary

00:14:18.659 --> 00:14:20.940
system well above the hawks, even as the cow

00:14:20.940 --> 00:14:23.580
aged. They were light years ahead of the competition.

00:14:24.250 --> 00:14:26.870
The AI catalogs must have been completely saturated

00:14:26.870 --> 00:14:29.690
with Mark Daughters, based on that physical advantage

00:14:29.690 --> 00:14:32.549
alone. Everyone wanted one. But as the sources

00:14:32.549 --> 00:14:35.389
point out, reaching for a backup bull is never

00:14:35.389 --> 00:14:38.809
a flawless solution. Mark brought elite udders,

00:14:38.809 --> 00:14:41.509
but he also carried a severe structural curse

00:14:41.509 --> 00:14:44.549
that traveled down his maternal line, originating

00:14:44.549 --> 00:14:48.340
from a bull named Nonarmi Fondmat. Hidden flaw.

00:14:48.659 --> 00:14:51.100
How did this flaw manifest in Mark's daughters?

00:14:51.460 --> 00:14:53.720
It manifested in the feet and legs, specifically

00:14:53.720 --> 00:14:56.259
in the pasterns and heels. Okay, break that down

00:14:56.259 --> 00:14:58.820
for us. So the pastern is the shock -absorbing

00:14:58.820 --> 00:15:01.960
joint between the hoof and the fetlock. A strong

00:15:01.960 --> 00:15:04.539
pastern has a steep angle, keeping the cow up

00:15:04.539 --> 00:15:07.179
on her toes. A weak pastern slopes backward,

00:15:07.440 --> 00:15:09.620
dropping the cow's weight onto her heels. Like

00:15:09.620 --> 00:15:12.460
wearing bad shoes all day. Exactly. Mark's daughters

00:15:12.460 --> 00:15:14.700
were notorious for having shallow heels and weak

00:15:14.700 --> 00:15:17.700
pasterns. When a cow with shallow heels stands

00:15:17.700 --> 00:15:20.440
on concrete all day, the soft tissue at the back

00:15:20.440 --> 00:15:22.700
of the foot bears the brunt of the weight. Ouch.

00:15:22.820 --> 00:15:25.799
Yeah, this leads to bruising, ulcers, and chronic

00:15:25.799 --> 00:15:28.720
lameness. So you have this massive paradox standing

00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:31.059
in the show ring. The historical accounts describe

00:15:31.059 --> 00:15:33.980
it perfectly. A breeder would watch a mark daughter

00:15:33.980 --> 00:15:36.460
walk into the ring and immediately fall in love

00:15:36.460 --> 00:15:38.759
with the sheer perfection of the udder. Beautiful

00:15:38.759 --> 00:15:41.759
up top. But the moment the cow turned sideways

00:15:41.759 --> 00:15:45.169
and you looked at her foundation, The illusion

00:15:45.169 --> 00:15:48.570
completely shattered. How did the dairy farmers

00:15:48.570 --> 00:15:51.850
of the 1980s handle a bull that was simultaneously

00:15:51.850 --> 00:15:55.490
a miracle and a disaster? It forced a hard division

00:15:55.490 --> 00:15:57.450
between the farmers who understood the concept

00:15:57.450 --> 00:15:59.889
of specialist tools and the farmers who engaged

00:15:59.889 --> 00:16:01.909
in indiscriminate breeding. The ones who did

00:16:01.909 --> 00:16:03.889
the math versus the ones who just followed the

00:16:03.889 --> 00:16:06.769
hype. Exactly. The master breeders looked at

00:16:06.769 --> 00:16:09.309
Mark and recognized that he was not a universal

00:16:09.309 --> 00:16:12.889
fix. They mapped out his precise hole, his fatal

00:16:12.889 --> 00:16:15.830
flaw in the feet and legs. So they protected

00:16:15.830 --> 00:16:18.409
against it. They only mated Mark to specific

00:16:18.409 --> 00:16:21.029
cow families within their herds that already

00:16:21.029 --> 00:16:23.490
possessed rock -solid structural foundations,

00:16:23.970 --> 00:16:26.769
steep foot angles and deep heels. Balancing the

00:16:26.769 --> 00:16:29.649
equation. Those farmers used the cow's existing

00:16:29.649 --> 00:16:32.509
strengths to mask Mark's weakness, and they were

00:16:32.509 --> 00:16:34.629
rewarded with the most profitable, beautiful

00:16:34.629 --> 00:16:36.990
udders of their generation. But what happened

00:16:36.990 --> 00:16:38.789
to the farmers who just bought into the hype

00:16:38.789 --> 00:16:41.549
without analyzing the structural mismatch? Oh,

00:16:41.570 --> 00:16:43.990
they paid a heavy price. The farmers who viewed

00:16:43.990 --> 00:16:47.149
Mark as a magic wand and spread his semen indiscriminately

00:16:47.149 --> 00:16:49.230
across their entire herds. Thinking he'd fix

00:16:49.230 --> 00:16:51.730
everything. Right. They ended up spending the

00:16:51.730 --> 00:16:54.230
entire next decade dealing with the fallout.

00:16:54.429 --> 00:16:57.450
They spent countless hours and dollars trimming

00:16:57.450 --> 00:17:01.110
hooves, treating heel warts, wrapping ulcerated

00:17:01.110 --> 00:17:03.610
feet. The vet bills must have been insane. And

00:17:03.610 --> 00:17:05.970
prematurely culling cows that simply could not

00:17:05.970 --> 00:17:08.789
walk to the feed bunk anymore. It is the ultimate

00:17:08.789 --> 00:17:11.960
lesson of the outcross or the backup bull. You

00:17:11.960 --> 00:17:14.099
have to know a bull's flaws just as intimately

00:17:14.099 --> 00:17:16.779
as you know his strengths. That structural flaw

00:17:16.779 --> 00:17:19.039
in the feet and legs was painful, and it was

00:17:19.039 --> 00:17:21.680
expensive to manage. But the research points

00:17:21.680 --> 00:17:24.440
to a much darker hidden cost associated with

00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:27.720
Walkway Chief Mark. Much darker. Bad feet were

00:17:27.720 --> 00:17:29.799
visible. You could see them. You could manage

00:17:29.799 --> 00:17:32.250
them if you were careful. What was hiding deeper

00:17:32.250 --> 00:17:35.150
inside his DNA was completely invisible, and

00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:37.089
it leads to one of the most devastating chapters

00:17:37.089 --> 00:17:39.869
in dairy genetics. You're bringing up the APAF1

00:17:39.869 --> 00:17:43.170
mutation. I am. It's terrifying. It is a textbook

00:17:43.170 --> 00:17:45.309
example of what happens when a single genetic

00:17:45.309 --> 00:17:48.630
line becomes too dominant. Because Mark was so

00:17:48.630 --> 00:17:51.369
intensely popular for fixing udders, his genetics

00:17:51.369 --> 00:17:53.930
rapidly saturated the entire Holstein breed.

00:17:54.130 --> 00:17:56.029
He was everywhere. He eventually recorded over

00:17:56.029 --> 00:17:59.799
57 ,000 production -tested daughters. Through

00:17:59.799 --> 00:18:02.539
those daughters and his thousands of sons, his

00:18:02.539 --> 00:18:05.220
DNA was woven into the fabric of the industry.

00:18:05.900 --> 00:18:09.319
Today, his genetics sit in roughly 7 % of every

00:18:09.319 --> 00:18:11.779
Holstein on the North American continent. But

00:18:11.779 --> 00:18:14.859
buried deep within that DNA, inherited from his

00:18:14.859 --> 00:18:18.299
sire, Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief, was a recessive

00:18:18.299 --> 00:18:21.980
lethal mutation on the APAF1 gene. How does a

00:18:21.980 --> 00:18:24.440
lethal mutation hide in plain sight for decades

00:18:24.440 --> 00:18:27.180
while a bull is being used tens of thousands

00:18:27.180 --> 00:18:29.119
of times? Yeah. Why wasn't it noticed immediately?

00:18:29.500 --> 00:18:31.680
It hides because of the exact biological mechanism

00:18:31.680 --> 00:18:34.259
we discussed regarding inbreeding. The APAF1

00:18:34.259 --> 00:18:37.200
mutation is recessive. Okay. When a farmer mated

00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:39.359
Mark to a cow from a different genetic line,

00:18:39.539 --> 00:18:42.980
the resulting calf inherited one mutated APAF1

00:18:42.980 --> 00:18:45.759
gene from Mark and one healthy dominant gene

00:18:45.759 --> 00:18:48.039
from the mother. So she was fine. That calf was

00:18:48.039 --> 00:18:51.349
perfectly healthy, but she was a carrier. She

00:18:51.349 --> 00:18:53.589
grew up, entered the milking herd, and performed

00:18:53.589 --> 00:18:57.529
beautifully. The trap wasn't sprung until a generation

00:18:57.529 --> 00:19:00.589
or two later, when the industry became so saturated

00:19:00.589 --> 00:19:02.890
with mark -in -chief genetics that they started

00:19:02.890 --> 00:19:05.430
breeding carriers to carriers. Unknowingly, yes.

00:19:05.829 --> 00:19:08.490
Farmers started mating carrier cows to carrier

00:19:08.490 --> 00:19:11.450
bulls. And when two carriers are mated, the mathematical

00:19:11.450 --> 00:19:15.230
probability dictates a 25 % chance that the embryo

00:19:15.230 --> 00:19:17.430
inherits the mutated gene from both parents.

00:19:17.880 --> 00:19:19.900
That's the danger zone. When that happens with

00:19:19.900 --> 00:19:23.140
APAF1, what is the biological result? The result

00:19:23.140 --> 00:19:26.339
is embryonic death. Just death. The mutation

00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:28.480
fundamentally breaks the cellular development

00:19:28.480 --> 00:19:31.539
process early in gestation. The calves simply

00:19:31.539 --> 00:19:34.440
do not develop. The cow appears to settle. So

00:19:34.440 --> 00:19:36.660
the farmer thinks she's pregnant. Right, but

00:19:36.660 --> 00:19:39.539
then she quietly aborts the microscopic embryo

00:19:39.539 --> 00:19:42.220
and returns to heat a few weeks later. So frustrating.

00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:45.079
And because early embryonic loss is a somewhat

00:19:45.079 --> 00:19:47.660
common occurrence in dairy cattle due to various

00:19:47.660 --> 00:19:49.960
environmental factors, heat stress, minor infections.

00:19:50.259 --> 00:19:52.200
The farmers just assumed it was a standard fertility

00:19:52.200 --> 00:19:55.420
issue. Exactly. They had no idea a genetic time

00:19:55.420 --> 00:19:58.480
bomb was quietly killing a quarter of these specific

00:19:58.480 --> 00:20:01.460
matings. It took researchers nearly 30 years

00:20:01.460 --> 00:20:03.880
to finally track this down. 30 years of lost

00:20:03.880 --> 00:20:07.099
calves. The team led by Harris Lewin at UC Davis

00:20:07.099 --> 00:20:11.380
finally identified the APA F1 mutation and traced

00:20:11.380 --> 00:20:13.839
it back to chief. When they finally tallied up

00:20:13.839 --> 00:20:16.839
the historical data, the economic toll was almost

00:20:16.839 --> 00:20:19.460
unfathomable. What did this invisible genetic

00:20:19.460 --> 00:20:23.190
curse actually cost the dairy industry? The retrospective

00:20:23.190 --> 00:20:25.289
analysis estimated that over the course of those

00:20:25.289 --> 00:20:28.210
three decades, the APA F1 mutation caused the

00:20:28.210 --> 00:20:31.990
loss of 500 ,000 calves worldwide. 500 ,000.

00:20:32.069 --> 00:20:34.369
More than 100 ,000 of those lost pregnancies

00:20:34.369 --> 00:20:37.230
occurred in the United States alone. When you

00:20:37.230 --> 00:20:39.750
calculate the lost value of those calves, the

00:20:39.750 --> 00:20:42.410
extra semen used to rebreed the cows, and the

00:20:42.410 --> 00:20:44.829
lost milk production from cows experiencing extended

00:20:44.829 --> 00:20:47.349
days open. The financial hit. The financial hit

00:20:47.349 --> 00:20:50.930
was estimated at $420 million. Nearly half a

00:20:50.930 --> 00:21:00.990
billion dollars. It really drives home the reality

00:21:00.990 --> 00:21:03.750
that greatness and genetic risk travel together

00:21:03.750 --> 00:21:07.250
in the exact same pedigree. Mark fixed a massive

00:21:07.250 --> 00:21:10.089
physical problem for the breed, but his dominance

00:21:10.089 --> 00:21:12.450
created a bottleneck that cost half a billion

00:21:12.450 --> 00:21:15.410
dollars. That is staggering. Which is exactly

00:21:15.410 --> 00:21:18.109
why the modern dairy farmer cannot rely on a

00:21:18.109 --> 00:21:21.000
single savior. If you reach outside the mainstream

00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:23.519
to fix an inbreeding problem, you must do your

00:21:23.519 --> 00:21:26.240
homework. Always. But Mark's story is an example

00:21:26.240 --> 00:21:29.099
of stumbling into a backup bowl. The sources

00:21:29.099 --> 00:21:31.680
outline another crisis, about two decades later,

00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:34.019
where the dairy industry did not just stumble

00:21:34.019 --> 00:21:37.099
into a backup, but actively and desperately needed

00:21:37.099 --> 00:21:40.500
an outsider to fix a slow -motion systemic disaster.

00:21:41.000 --> 00:21:43.319
And that brings us to the late 1990s and the

00:21:43.319 --> 00:21:45.599
absolute dominance of the Bell genetic line.

00:21:45.700 --> 00:21:48.579
Ah, Bell. The late 1990s crisis is a perfect

00:21:48.579 --> 00:21:51.160
illustration of the industry chasing a single

00:21:51.160 --> 00:21:53.339
trait right off a cliff. Yep. Following the utter

00:21:53.339 --> 00:21:55.940
improvements of the 80s, the entire dairy world

00:21:55.940 --> 00:21:58.519
became fixated on first lactation milk records.

00:21:58.640 --> 00:22:01.880
They wanted it all right away. Exactly. The goal

00:22:01.880 --> 00:22:04.700
was to breed a heifer that would calve for the

00:22:04.700 --> 00:22:09.240
first time and immediately pump out. Astronomical

00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:12.319
volumes of milk. We are talking 100 pounds of

00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:15.059
milk a day from a two -year -old animal. Incredible

00:22:15.059 --> 00:22:17.720
stress on a young body. And the bull that delivered

00:22:17.720 --> 00:22:20.440
that specific trait better than anyone else was

00:22:20.440 --> 00:22:23.880
Carlin M. Ivanhoe Bell. The Bell genetics were

00:22:23.880 --> 00:22:27.000
incredibly potent. His descendants flooded dairy

00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:29.759
barns across the globe with unheard of volumes

00:22:29.759 --> 00:22:32.539
of milk. The production numbers looked phenomenal

00:22:32.539 --> 00:22:35.549
on paper. The herd averages spiked. And the milk

00:22:35.549 --> 00:22:38.329
checks grew. But the biological debt of that

00:22:38.329 --> 00:22:40.930
extreme production was about to come due. The

00:22:40.930 --> 00:22:43.809
sources paint a visceral, almost agonizing picture

00:22:43.809 --> 00:22:46.509
of what it looked like inside those barns once

00:22:46.509 --> 00:22:48.690
the bell daughters hit their peak. They were

00:22:48.690 --> 00:22:51.250
producing massive amounts of milk. But what was

00:22:51.250 --> 00:22:53.130
happening to the cows physically? They were physically

00:22:53.130 --> 00:22:55.450
falling apart. Literally falling apart. The bell

00:22:55.450 --> 00:22:57.650
line cows possessed an extreme amount of what

00:22:57.650 --> 00:22:59.630
the industry calls dairy character. They were

00:22:59.630 --> 00:23:01.950
very angular, very sharp, with a massive drive

00:23:01.950 --> 00:23:04.809
to convert feed into milk. But they lacked the

00:23:04.809 --> 00:23:07.890
sheer bodily substance, the chest width, and

00:23:07.890 --> 00:23:10.470
the bone structure to support it. You had these

00:23:10.470 --> 00:23:14.190
relatively small -framed, frail cows trying to

00:23:14.190 --> 00:23:17.009
hold up incredibly heavy milk -filled udders.

00:23:17.130 --> 00:23:19.430
Which is just a recipe for disaster. Because

00:23:19.430 --> 00:23:21.750
their drive to produce milk was so genetically

00:23:21.750 --> 00:23:24.750
overwhelming, they would pull calcium and energy

00:23:24.750 --> 00:23:26.890
straight out of their own bones and muscle reserves

00:23:26.890 --> 00:23:29.930
to keep the milk flowing. which leads directly

00:23:29.930 --> 00:23:32.849
to metabolic collapse. The accounts from farmers

00:23:32.849 --> 00:23:35.190
during that era described barns looking like

00:23:35.190 --> 00:23:37.670
battlefields. Like a hospital ward. You had high

00:23:37.670 --> 00:23:39.750
-producing cows going down with milk fever left

00:23:39.750 --> 00:23:42.089
and right, unable to stand because their blood

00:23:42.089 --> 00:23:44.390
calcium levels had completely crashed. Their

00:23:44.390 --> 00:23:46.250
legs were splaying out on the concrete under

00:23:46.250 --> 00:23:47.950
the weight of the udders. They simply could not

00:23:47.950 --> 00:23:50.569
handle the physiological stress. They had bred

00:23:50.569 --> 00:23:53.670
a Ferrari engine into a golf cart chassis. Wow,

00:23:53.789 --> 00:23:56.789
a Ferrari engine in a golf cart. And the wheels

00:23:56.789 --> 00:24:00.180
were flying off. A cow might give an incredible

00:24:00.180 --> 00:24:02.839
amount of milk in her first and second lactations,

00:24:02.839 --> 00:24:06.700
but the sheer effort would destroy her. She would

00:24:06.700 --> 00:24:08.940
wash out of the herd, meaning she had to be culled

00:24:08.940 --> 00:24:11.940
for health or structural reasons before she even

00:24:11.940 --> 00:24:14.720
reached her third lactation. So the industry

00:24:14.720 --> 00:24:17.200
recognized they needed a correction, right? A

00:24:17.200 --> 00:24:19.299
way to add strength and durability back into

00:24:19.299 --> 00:24:22.220
the cows and they needed it fast. But the massive

00:24:22.220 --> 00:24:24.559
problem was that they couldn't find the cure

00:24:24.559 --> 00:24:27.460
in the mainstream North American catalogs. Because

00:24:27.460 --> 00:24:30.019
of the inbreeding. Exactly. Because the industry

00:24:30.019 --> 00:24:33.259
had chased Bell so aggressively, virtually every

00:24:33.259 --> 00:24:36.279
top ranking bull available was heavily related

00:24:36.279 --> 00:24:38.619
to him. They were all carrying the exact same

00:24:38.619 --> 00:24:41.660
genes for extreme first lactation yield and physical

00:24:41.660 --> 00:24:44.220
frailty. So they were trapped. To fix the bell

00:24:44.220 --> 00:24:46.240
hangover, they had to look completely outside

00:24:46.240 --> 00:24:48.759
the established system. They had to look to Italy.

00:24:49.019 --> 00:24:51.740
Which introduces one of the most unlikely heroes

00:24:51.740 --> 00:24:54.519
in the Holstein breed, Carol Prelude Makoto.

00:24:54.700 --> 00:24:57.880
He was born in 1993 in the Parmigiano -Reggiano

00:24:57.880 --> 00:25:00.460
region of Italy, the exact same region we discussed

00:25:00.460 --> 00:25:02.900
earlier, where the demands for milk components

00:25:02.900 --> 00:25:06.779
and durable grazing cows were entirely different

00:25:06.779 --> 00:25:08.960
from the North American confinement model. A

00:25:08.960 --> 00:25:11.859
completely different world. If a North American

00:25:11.859 --> 00:25:14.299
dairy farmer looked at McToto's paper proof in

00:25:14.299 --> 00:25:17.160
1998, he looked like a complete joke compared

00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:20.559
to the bell line rockets. A total joke. His genetic

00:25:20.559 --> 00:25:22.720
projections for milk production were totally

00:25:22.720 --> 00:25:25.539
mediocre. He was not going to give you that massive

00:25:25.539 --> 00:25:27.960
immediate first lactation milk spike that everyone

00:25:27.960 --> 00:25:30.319
was addicted to. No, he wasn't. And yet when

00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:32.980
his semen was imported to Britain, it was priced

00:25:32.980 --> 00:25:36.359
at an exorbitant 40 pounds per straw. That was

00:25:36.359 --> 00:25:38.400
roughly four times the going rate for standard.

00:25:38.809 --> 00:25:41.930
proven bulls at the time. 40 pounds. Unheard

00:25:41.930 --> 00:25:44.549
of for a bull like that. Why on earth was a quote

00:25:44.549 --> 00:25:47.750
-unquote mediocre Italian bull commanding a 40

00:25:47.750 --> 00:25:50.269
-pound premium? It sounds like sheer madness

00:25:50.269 --> 00:25:52.609
until you dissect the architecture of his pedigree.

00:25:53.109 --> 00:25:55.650
Matoda was deliberately designed by the Italian

00:25:55.650 --> 00:25:58.269
breeders and a correction formula. He was a specialist

00:25:58.269 --> 00:26:01.769
tool. Yes. He was not bred for peak explosive

00:26:01.769 --> 00:26:04.609
milk. He was bred for survival and longevity.

00:26:05.500 --> 00:26:07.759
If you look at his sire, he was a son of Hanover

00:26:07.759 --> 00:26:10.619
Hill Starbuck, a bull legendary for injecting

00:26:10.619 --> 00:26:13.240
essential frame size, bone quality, and capacity.

00:26:13.559 --> 00:26:15.619
Building the chassis. His dam was a daughter

00:26:15.619 --> 00:26:19.160
of Tumar Blackstar, providing incredible constitution,

00:26:19.660 --> 00:26:22.299
chest width, and strength. And on the maternal

00:26:22.299 --> 00:26:25.559
line, bringing it all full circle, we find Walkway

00:26:25.559 --> 00:26:29.069
Chief Mark. Delivering those elite, welded on,

00:26:29.130 --> 00:26:31.430
utter attachments we talked about. Exactly. So

00:26:31.430 --> 00:26:33.990
his entire genetic profile was built to construct

00:26:33.990 --> 00:26:37.029
a stronger chassis. He was the exact antidote

00:26:37.029 --> 00:26:39.049
the industry needed for the fragile bell line

00:26:39.049 --> 00:26:41.690
cows. How did that translate when farmers actually

00:26:41.690 --> 00:26:44.130
started milking Mtoto daughters? It translated

00:26:44.130 --> 00:26:46.789
into time. When Mtoto's daughters hit the milking

00:26:46.789 --> 00:26:48.589
parlors, they were not the ones winning the production

00:26:48.589 --> 00:26:51.049
awards in their first year. They milked moderately.

00:26:51.480 --> 00:26:53.559
But they survive. The critical difference emerged

00:26:53.559 --> 00:26:55.599
over time. They were still in the barn in year

00:26:55.599 --> 00:26:58.980
three and year four and year five. They were

00:26:58.980 --> 00:27:01.460
steadily, reliably completing six profitable

00:27:01.460 --> 00:27:04.119
lactations while their bell line contemporaries

00:27:04.119 --> 00:27:06.279
were already rendering into dog food after two.

00:27:06.500 --> 00:27:08.960
That is incredible. The health traits of those

00:27:08.960 --> 00:27:12.019
Emtodo daughters are legendary. Even today, looking

00:27:12.019 --> 00:27:15.099
back, it is mature proof from 2025 that the data

00:27:15.099 --> 00:27:18.210
is just rock solid. It holds up perfectly. His

00:27:18.210 --> 00:27:20.730
somatic cell scores, which measure mastitis resistance,

00:27:21.170 --> 00:27:24.109
sit at a deeply negative 13, which is phenomenal.

00:27:24.490 --> 00:27:28.130
His healthy cow index is a plus 17. 30 years

00:27:28.130 --> 00:27:30.490
after he was born, those health traits have not

00:27:30.490 --> 00:27:33.269
eroded. in the genetic evaluations which brings

00:27:33.269 --> 00:27:35.950
us to a specific historical moment that perfectly

00:27:35.950 --> 00:27:39.089
encapsulates this shift it is one of the greatest

00:27:39.089 --> 00:27:41.549
turning pint stories in modern dairy history

00:27:41.549 --> 00:27:43.650
highlighting the tension between the catalog

00:27:43.650 --> 00:27:46.549
salesmen and the farmers actually doing the milking

00:27:46.549 --> 00:27:49.130
i really want to dig deeply into this story because

00:27:49.130 --> 00:27:51.069
it takes place at the pickford family's pixton

00:27:51.069 --> 00:27:54.390
farm in staffordshire england around 1999 the

00:27:54.390 --> 00:27:57.210
pickfords great dairymen they had a specific

00:27:57.210 --> 00:28:00.720
cow in their herd named condon arrow sharon She

00:28:00.720 --> 00:28:02.900
was an eight -year -old cow. Why is an eight

00:28:02.900 --> 00:28:04.660
-year -old cow in a commercial dairy setting

00:28:04.660 --> 00:28:07.400
such a significant anomaly? Because the average

00:28:07.400 --> 00:28:09.339
commercial dairy cow, especially during the height

00:28:09.339 --> 00:28:11.519
of the bell line frailty, rarely made it past

00:28:11.519 --> 00:28:13.660
four or five years of age. An eight -year -old

00:28:13.660 --> 00:28:16.660
cow means she has survived at least six calving

00:28:16.660 --> 00:28:19.859
cycles, handled the metabolic stress of six lactations,

00:28:20.039 --> 00:28:23.420
maintained her fertility, avoided severe mastitis,

00:28:23.619 --> 00:28:27.180
and kept her feet intact. She's a tank. She represents

00:28:27.180 --> 00:28:29.940
the absolute pinnacle of durability and profitability.

00:28:30.519 --> 00:28:32.880
Because after her second lactation, she has paid

00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:35.380
off her rearing costs, and every drop of milk

00:28:35.380 --> 00:28:38.059
she produces from then on is pure profit. But

00:28:38.059 --> 00:28:41.119
despite Sharon being this living, breathing testament

00:28:41.119 --> 00:28:44.059
to profitability, the artificial insemination

00:28:44.059 --> 00:28:46.519
representatives visiting the Pickford farm did

00:28:46.519 --> 00:28:48.740
not want to talk about her. No, of course not.

00:28:48.859 --> 00:28:50.930
They were pushing the new hotness. They wanted

00:28:50.930 --> 00:28:54.049
the Pickfords to focus on flushing embryos from

00:28:54.049 --> 00:28:56.910
their young, completely unproven first lactation

00:28:56.910 --> 00:28:59.869
heifers that had sky -high index numbers on paper.

00:29:00.049 --> 00:29:03.009
Right. The reps were selling the algorithm. But

00:29:03.009 --> 00:29:05.609
the father, Anthony Pickford, pushed back against

00:29:05.609 --> 00:29:07.809
that narrative. He physically points at Sharon

00:29:07.809 --> 00:29:10.250
in the barn and asks this fundamental question.

00:29:10.289 --> 00:29:12.630
He says, but Sharon is still here. She's still

00:29:12.630 --> 00:29:15.359
producing. These flashy heifers you're pushing,

00:29:15.500 --> 00:29:17.240
will their daughters still be milking in eight

00:29:17.240 --> 00:29:19.559
years? What a question. He refused to play the

00:29:19.559 --> 00:29:21.680
high -index catalog game. He wanted to breed

00:29:21.680 --> 00:29:23.839
for the durability he could see with his own

00:29:23.839 --> 00:29:27.319
eyes. So the Pickfords make a massive contrarian

00:29:27.319 --> 00:29:30.099
gamble. Massive. They take this incredible, proven,

00:29:30.339 --> 00:29:33.299
eight -year -old survivor cow, and they breed

00:29:33.299 --> 00:29:36.039
her to the 40 -pound Italian import, Mentoto.

00:29:36.799 --> 00:29:39.160
The bull that the rest of the high -end breeding

00:29:39.160 --> 00:29:42.339
world thought was too mediocre for elite matings.

00:29:42.589 --> 00:29:44.869
What was the result of that specific combination?

00:29:45.269 --> 00:29:48.089
The result was a bull calf named Pixton Shottle.

00:29:48.210 --> 00:29:50.690
Shottle. Just saying that name is enough to make

00:29:50.690 --> 00:29:53.349
anyone who understands dairy genetics stop and

00:29:53.349 --> 00:29:55.650
pay attention. Shottle did not just succeed.

00:29:55.789 --> 00:29:58.529
He completely redefined the global dairy industry

00:29:58.529 --> 00:30:01.309
for a decade. He really did. He took the durability

00:30:01.309 --> 00:30:04.089
of Entodo and the proven survivability of Sharon

00:30:04.089 --> 00:30:07.130
and packaged it perfectly. He hit number one

00:30:07.130 --> 00:30:10.970
on the USTPI list in 2008. He dominated the rankings

00:30:10.970 --> 00:30:12.990
on both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously,

00:30:13.210 --> 00:30:15.829
which is incredibly rare. Rare is an understatement.

00:30:15.950 --> 00:30:19.250
He eventually achieved nearly 10 ,000 excellent

00:30:19.250 --> 00:30:22.190
classified daughters worldwide, and he sold over

00:30:22.190 --> 00:30:26.829
1 .17 million doses of semen. All because one

00:30:26.829 --> 00:30:29.349
farmer looked at a durable old cow and decided

00:30:29.349 --> 00:30:32.029
to mate her to an overpriced Italian outcross

00:30:32.029 --> 00:30:34.089
that the algorithm said was not good enough.

00:30:34.269 --> 00:30:37.109
How does this specific story of durability connect

00:30:37.109 --> 00:30:39.470
to the real -world pressures a dairy farmer feels

00:30:39.470 --> 00:30:42.130
today? Let's look at the economic environment

00:30:42.130 --> 00:30:45.210
Schottl's daughters were born into. In 2008,

00:30:45.369 --> 00:30:48.230
the global dairy industry faced a massive, brutal

00:30:48.230 --> 00:30:51.170
economic crisis. The 2008 crisis was a perfect

00:30:51.170 --> 00:30:54.710
storm. Feed costs absolutely skyrocketed due

00:30:54.710 --> 00:30:57.509
to global grain shortages and ethanol mandates,

00:30:57.730 --> 00:31:00.609
making corn incredibly expensive. The feed bill

00:31:00.609 --> 00:31:02.950
was terrifying. Simultaneously, the global milk

00:31:02.950 --> 00:31:05.390
price completely crashed. It was an absolute

00:31:05.390 --> 00:31:08.240
bloodbath for dairy balance sheets. If we look

00:31:08.240 --> 00:31:10.839
at who survived that era, it provides the ultimate

00:31:10.839 --> 00:31:13.180
validation of the M. totoshottle blueprint. Because

00:31:13.180 --> 00:31:15.279
who survived? The farming operations that had

00:31:15.279 --> 00:31:18.099
chased those extreme, fragile, high -producing,

00:31:18.099 --> 00:31:20.259
bell -line genetics, many of them went under.

00:31:20.440 --> 00:31:22.180
They couldn't afford to feed them. Their cows

00:31:22.180 --> 00:31:25.319
required massive amounts of expensive, high -energy

00:31:25.319 --> 00:31:28.019
feed just to maintain their body condition while

00:31:28.019 --> 00:31:30.839
producing milk. When the milk price dropped,

00:31:31.119 --> 00:31:34.099
the cost of the feed vastly exceeded the value

00:31:34.099 --> 00:31:37.299
of the milk, and the math simply broke. But what

00:31:37.299 --> 00:31:39.559
about the farms that were heavily invested in

00:31:39.559 --> 00:31:42.859
the Schottel daughters? The farms that had prioritized

00:31:42.859 --> 00:31:45.099
the moderate production and extreme durability

00:31:45.099 --> 00:31:48.180
of the metodoline weathered the storm. Their

00:31:48.180 --> 00:31:50.539
cows were lower maintenance. They didn't need

00:31:50.539 --> 00:31:53.259
as much inputs. They converted forage more efficiently.

00:31:53.400 --> 00:31:55.779
They had fewer vet bills. And most importantly,

00:31:55.980 --> 00:31:58.660
they stayed in the herd for five or six lactations.

00:31:58.660 --> 00:32:01.920
Which means no replacement costs. When you don't

00:32:01.920 --> 00:32:04.319
have to spend money raising replacement heifers

00:32:04.319 --> 00:32:06.910
constantly because you're older cows refuse to

00:32:06.910 --> 00:32:09.869
die, your overhead drops significantly. That

00:32:09.869 --> 00:32:11.970
durability paid the mortgage when the milk check

00:32:11.970 --> 00:32:15.089
could not. It is a profound lesson. Durability

00:32:15.089 --> 00:32:17.690
pays, especially when the market turns violently

00:32:17.690 --> 00:32:20.289
against you. And that directly connects to the

00:32:20.289 --> 00:32:22.930
feed cost anxieties every single farmer feels

00:32:22.930 --> 00:32:25.529
right now as they watch the commodity markets.

00:32:25.690 --> 00:32:28.569
It never really goes away. But Metodo was just

00:32:28.569 --> 00:32:30.509
the beginning of this rebellion against the shiny

00:32:30.509 --> 00:32:33.849
catalog cover boys. The next era in our sources

00:32:33.849 --> 00:32:36.950
takes the concept of, quote unquote, ugly but

00:32:36.950 --> 00:32:40.490
profitable to a level that actively angered the

00:32:40.490 --> 00:32:42.970
show ring elite. Oh, this is a great era. Let's

00:32:42.970 --> 00:32:45.549
dig into the anti -type kings of the 2000s, O

00:32:45.549 --> 00:32:48.059
Man and Blitz. To understand the sheer disruption

00:32:48.059 --> 00:32:50.420
caused by Oman, you first have to understand

00:32:50.420 --> 00:32:53.019
the era of Holstein aesthetics he was born into.

00:32:53.160 --> 00:32:56.079
The supermodels. Exactly. The late 90s and early

00:32:56.079 --> 00:32:59.039
2000s were dominated by absolute giants of the

00:32:59.039 --> 00:33:02.019
show ring. You had bulls like Reagan Crust Elton

00:33:02.019 --> 00:33:04.259
Durham, who achieved something almost mythical

00:33:04.259 --> 00:33:07.079
by winning five consecutive premier sire banners

00:33:07.079 --> 00:33:10.099
at the World Dairy Expo in Madison. Five in a

00:33:10.099 --> 00:33:12.019
row. Then you had Braydale Goldwyn, who came

00:33:12.019 --> 00:33:14.599
along and won 10 premier sire banners. Unbelievable.

00:33:15.099 --> 00:33:17.279
These bulls sired cows that were breathtaking

00:33:17.279 --> 00:33:19.940
to look at. They were incredibly tall with long

00:33:19.940 --> 00:33:23.079
bodies, perfectly broad and flat rumps, and a

00:33:23.079 --> 00:33:26.160
sweeping angular rib structure. They represented

00:33:26.160 --> 00:33:29.220
the absolute peak of bovine aesthetics. And then,

00:33:29.319 --> 00:33:32.400
lumbering out of the shadows to challenge these

00:33:32.400 --> 00:33:35.920
show ring gods, comes a bull named O .B. Manfred

00:33:35.920 --> 00:33:38.500
Justice, universally known as O -Man. Good old

00:33:38.500 --> 00:33:41.509
O -Man. He was born in 1998. The sources provide

00:33:41.509 --> 00:33:43.710
his linear profile from the National Association

00:33:43.710 --> 00:33:46.529
of Animal Breeders database. And compared to

00:33:46.529 --> 00:33:48.589
the show winners of the day, his numbers are

00:33:48.589 --> 00:33:51.650
frankly hilarious. You're so bad. His udder composite,

00:33:52.029 --> 00:33:55.829
or UDC, was a negative 3 .22. His dairy form

00:33:55.829 --> 00:33:59.049
was a negative 3 .45. His feet and legs score

00:33:59.049 --> 00:34:02.509
was a negative 1 .07. What does a negative 3

00:34:02.509 --> 00:34:05.230
.22 udder actually look like on a living, breathing

00:34:05.230 --> 00:34:08.119
cow? It looks remarkably plain. A negative 3

00:34:08.119 --> 00:34:10.980
.22 utter score means the utter might be a bit

00:34:10.980 --> 00:34:13.340
deep. The attachments might not be perfectly

00:34:13.340 --> 00:34:15.400
smooth, and the teats might be a little thick

00:34:15.400 --> 00:34:17.719
or placed slightly wide. Not camera ready. A

00:34:17.719 --> 00:34:20.719
negative 3 .45 dairy form means the cow is fleshy,

00:34:20.719 --> 00:34:22.780
round, and thick -necked, rather than sharp and

00:34:22.780 --> 00:34:25.500
angular. By every single metric the World Dairy

00:34:25.500 --> 00:34:28.300
Expo valued, Oman was a disaster. Total disaster.

00:34:28.599 --> 00:34:30.360
The breeders who chased ribbons looked at him

00:34:30.360 --> 00:34:32.679
and declared him too plain for the room. If you

00:34:32.679 --> 00:34:34.940
let an Oman daughter onto the colored shavings

00:34:34.940 --> 00:34:37.179
at Madison, you would be laughed out of the building.

00:34:37.610 --> 00:34:40.650
So if he was that ugly on paper and in person,

00:34:40.789 --> 00:34:43.809
why did anyone buy his semen? Why didn't he just

00:34:43.809 --> 00:34:46.409
fade into total obscurity? Because the commercial

00:34:46.409 --> 00:34:49.429
dairy world simply did not care about the ribbons.

00:34:49.530 --> 00:34:51.449
They care about the tank. The commercial dairy

00:34:51.449 --> 00:34:53.690
farmer is the one milking cows at four in the

00:34:53.690 --> 00:34:56.619
morning in a freezing parlor. They do not get

00:34:56.619 --> 00:34:59.260
paid a premium for a flat rump or a sweeping

00:34:59.260 --> 00:35:02.099
rib. They get paid for milk in the tank and healthy

00:35:02.099 --> 00:35:04.639
towels that do not require constant veterinary

00:35:04.639 --> 00:35:06.679
intervention. And the research backs that up.

00:35:06.760 --> 00:35:09.260
A landmark study published in the Proceedings

00:35:09.260 --> 00:35:11.659
of the National Academy of Sciences specifically

00:35:11.659 --> 00:35:14.960
highlighted Oman to explain this exact phenomenon.

00:35:15.769 --> 00:35:18.250
The researchers noted that while he lacked physical

00:35:18.250 --> 00:35:21.550
type, he was a massive, unprecedented outlier

00:35:21.550 --> 00:35:24.550
for an index called net merit. How does net merit

00:35:24.550 --> 00:35:26.929
differ from the TPI formula we discussed earlier?

00:35:27.269 --> 00:35:30.130
Net merit strips away the aesthetic biases. It

00:35:30.130 --> 00:35:32.849
focuses purely on the expected lifetime profitability

00:35:32.849 --> 00:35:35.949
of the cow. Oman dominated in net merit because

00:35:35.949 --> 00:35:38.409
he possessed extreme, off -the -charts traits

00:35:38.409 --> 00:35:40.849
for calving ease, productive life, and daughter

00:35:40.849 --> 00:35:43.289
pregnancy rates. The survival traits. His daughters

00:35:43.289 --> 00:35:45.869
calved completely unassisted, they bred back

00:35:45.869 --> 00:35:48.670
on the very first service, they rarely got mastitis,

00:35:48.849 --> 00:35:52.090
and they milked reliably year in and year out.

00:35:52.150 --> 00:35:55.030
So he occupied this bizarre, awkward middle ground

00:35:55.030 --> 00:35:57.750
in the industry. The high -end genetics guys

00:35:57.750 --> 00:35:59.829
thought his daughters were too ugly to look at,

00:35:59.909 --> 00:36:01.969
and the pure production guys thought he didn't

00:36:01.969 --> 00:36:04.469
yield enough peak milk. But the commercial farmers

00:36:04.469 --> 00:36:07.570
who were doing the brutal daily math of dairy

00:36:07.570 --> 00:36:10.170
farming saw something else entirely. What did

00:36:10.170 --> 00:36:13.090
they see? They saw the ultimate invisible moneymaker.

00:36:14.079 --> 00:36:16.639
An Oman daughter was the cow you never noticed

00:36:16.639 --> 00:36:18.519
in the barn because she never gave you a reason

00:36:18.519 --> 00:36:20.639
to. I love that. She was never on the sick list,

00:36:20.860 --> 00:36:23.280
never needed the vet, never needed calving assistance.

00:36:23.739 --> 00:36:26.460
And that is exactly where the true profit in

00:36:26.460 --> 00:36:29.159
dairy farming lies. Because of that undeniable

00:36:29.159 --> 00:36:31.920
commercial success, Oman eventually sold over

00:36:31.920 --> 00:36:35.219
one million units of semen. One million. Today,

00:36:35.340 --> 00:36:38.840
he makes up roughly 13 % of the entire Holstein

00:36:38.840 --> 00:36:42.250
breed's genetics. A bull with a negative 3 .22

00:36:42.250 --> 00:36:45.530
udder score is mathematically the 12th most genetically

00:36:45.530 --> 00:36:48.530
important sire in U .S. Holstein history. It

00:36:48.530 --> 00:36:51.309
is the ultimate underdog story of the dairy world.

00:36:51.650 --> 00:36:55.239
But he was not a solitary phenomenon. The sources

00:36:55.239 --> 00:36:58.159
reveal that Charlie Will, the exact same select

00:36:58.159 --> 00:37:01.199
-sires analyst who found walkway chief Mark decades

00:37:01.199 --> 00:37:04.340
earlier, struck gold again with another anti

00:37:04.340 --> 00:37:08.119
-type king named Fisted Emery Blitz. Blitz is

00:37:08.119 --> 00:37:11.179
a fascinating case study in how the market communicates

00:37:11.179 --> 00:37:13.559
what it actually wants versus what the glossy

00:37:13.559 --> 00:37:17.219
catalogs tell it to want. Blitz came from a completely

00:37:17.219 --> 00:37:20.940
unknown, unheralded prefix, the farm of Brian

00:37:20.940 --> 00:37:23.619
and Wendy First. He was a son of Blackstar, so

00:37:23.619 --> 00:37:26.119
the underlying breeding was solid, but he possessed

00:37:26.119 --> 00:37:29.320
an unremarkable working -class pedigree that

00:37:29.320 --> 00:37:32.400
commanded absolutely zero premium in the high

00:37:32.400 --> 00:37:34.760
-end sail rings. So no one was fighting over

00:37:34.760 --> 00:37:37.199
him. He was described by the analysts as a rough

00:37:37.199 --> 00:37:38.880
diamond that nobody really wanted to polish.

00:37:39.389 --> 00:37:41.489
But what happened when the Blitz daughters actually

00:37:41.489 --> 00:37:43.190
started freshening and hitting the commercial

00:37:43.190 --> 00:37:45.489
milking strings? They certainly didn't have the

00:37:45.489 --> 00:37:47.010
flash or the height of the Durham daughters,

00:37:47.130 --> 00:37:49.070
did they? No, they were not pretty. They were

00:37:49.070 --> 00:37:51.769
rough, rugged, and somewhat coarse. But man,

00:37:51.929 --> 00:37:54.030
did they work. They got the job done. They showed

00:37:54.030 --> 00:37:56.429
up to the parlor every single shift. They produced

00:37:56.429 --> 00:37:59.670
massive volumes of milk with incredible consistency.

00:38:00.250 --> 00:38:02.969
And they possessed the bodily capacity to consume

00:38:02.969 --> 00:38:05.590
enough feed to maintain that production without

00:38:05.590 --> 00:38:08.780
falling apart. And this brings us to one of the

00:38:08.780 --> 00:38:11.840
most bonnest, unassailable metrics in the entire

00:38:11.840 --> 00:38:15.099
dairy industry. The reorder rate. The reorder

00:38:15.099 --> 00:38:16.800
rate. Explain the reorder rate because the sources

00:38:16.800 --> 00:38:19.500
lean heavily on this as the ultimate proof of

00:38:19.500 --> 00:38:22.139
a bull's value. The reorder rate measures what

00:38:22.139 --> 00:38:24.539
happens after a farmer uses a bull for the first

00:38:24.539 --> 00:38:28.179
time. Anyone can sell 100 straws of semen based

00:38:28.179 --> 00:38:31.079
on a fancy photo or a high genomic index. Marketing

00:38:31.079 --> 00:38:33.579
is easy. But when a commercial farmer milks those

00:38:33.579 --> 00:38:35.860
resulting daughters for a full year, observes

00:38:35.860 --> 00:38:38.019
how they handle the stress at the barn, and then

00:38:38.019 --> 00:38:40.300
actively picks up the phone to call their AI

00:38:40.300 --> 00:38:43.360
representative and says, give me 100 more straws

00:38:43.360 --> 00:38:45.960
of that exact same bull. That's reality. That

00:38:45.960 --> 00:38:47.780
is the truth. That is the commercial signal cutting

00:38:47.780 --> 00:38:50.239
through the marketing noise. Blitz eventually

00:38:50.239 --> 00:38:54.699
sold 1 .52 million units of semen. He recorded

00:38:54.699 --> 00:38:58.599
over 42 ,000 daughters in 11 ,000 different herds.

00:38:58.619 --> 00:39:01.280
The sheer volume of repeat customers tells you

00:39:01.280 --> 00:39:03.539
everything you need to know. The catalog rankings

00:39:03.539 --> 00:39:06.159
and the show ring judges took years to catch

00:39:06.159 --> 00:39:08.639
up to what the farmers milking cows at 4 a .m.

00:39:08.639 --> 00:39:11.340
had already figured out. They always do. Blitzen

00:39:11.340 --> 00:39:13.780
-O -Man fundamentally proved that the commercial

00:39:13.780 --> 00:39:16.860
signal, the repeat order rate from the dirt -level

00:39:16.860 --> 00:39:19.860
dairyman, is vastly more accurate at predicting

00:39:19.860 --> 00:39:23.219
profitability than any algorithm or TPI formula.

00:39:23.500 --> 00:39:26.159
It is a profound lesson in listening to the barn

00:39:26.159 --> 00:39:29.519
rather than the boardroom. These anti -type bulls

00:39:29.519 --> 00:39:32.800
reshaped the 1990s and 2000s by injecting desperately

00:39:32.800 --> 00:39:36.550
needed durability. If we really want to understand

00:39:36.550 --> 00:39:38.429
the origins of this phenomenon, if we want to

00:39:38.429 --> 00:39:40.849
find the granddaddy of all overlooked matings

00:39:40.849 --> 00:39:42.829
that accidentally built the modern dairy industry,

00:39:43.010 --> 00:39:45.349
we have to travel much further back in the archives.

00:39:45.550 --> 00:39:48.369
We have to look at 1965. Okay. Setting the scene

00:39:48.369 --> 00:39:51.190
for 1965 is crucial because artificial insemination

00:39:51.190 --> 00:39:53.530
was a very different landscape back then. We

00:39:53.530 --> 00:39:55.489
are at Round Oak Farm in Virginia. We have two

00:39:55.489 --> 00:39:58.369
first cousins, Ronald Hope Sr. and George Miller.

00:39:58.710 --> 00:40:00.909
Great historical figures. They are standing in

00:40:00.909 --> 00:40:02.989
the barn staring down a mating decision that

00:40:02.989 --> 00:40:05.829
literally nobody in the industry would have prioritized.

00:40:05.949 --> 00:40:08.309
They have a bull named Tidy Burke Elevation.

00:40:08.690 --> 00:40:11.070
What was his reputation at the time? Tidy Burke

00:40:11.070 --> 00:40:14.369
Elevation was a bull with known documented fertility

00:40:14.369 --> 00:40:18.250
limitations. Which is bad for a bull. Yes. He

00:40:18.250 --> 00:40:21.070
was not a highly sought after sire. He was difficult

00:40:21.070 --> 00:40:23.949
to settle cows with. And they are looking at

00:40:23.949 --> 00:40:27.289
mating him to a cow named Round Oak Ivanhoe Eve.

00:40:28.349 --> 00:40:31.349
She was notoriously slow maturing. So a slow

00:40:31.349 --> 00:40:33.489
starter. She did not look impressive as a young

00:40:33.489 --> 00:40:35.969
cow, and she did not produce impressive volumes

00:40:35.969 --> 00:40:38.489
of milk early on. So you were combining a bull

00:40:38.489 --> 00:40:41.050
that struggles to get cows pregnant with a cow

00:40:41.050 --> 00:40:43.289
that takes forever to look or milk like a profitable

00:40:43.289 --> 00:40:46.090
animal. Exactly. It is the absolute definition

00:40:46.090 --> 00:40:48.889
of a low -priority throwaway mating. Neither

00:40:48.889 --> 00:40:51.989
parent was anyone's top choice. When the resulting

00:40:51.989 --> 00:40:55.329
bull calf is born a calf, they named Round Oak

00:40:55.329 --> 00:40:58.690
Rag Apple Elevation. Nobody cared. Nobody even

00:40:58.690 --> 00:41:01.050
blinked. There were no bidding wars. When he's

00:41:01.050 --> 00:41:03.329
eventually acquired by the Virginia Animal Breeders

00:41:03.329 --> 00:41:05.570
Association, which later became part of Select

00:41:05.570 --> 00:41:08.230
Sires, how is his semen priced for the commercial

00:41:08.230 --> 00:41:11.789
market? His semen was sold for under $1 .50 per

00:41:11.789 --> 00:41:15.409
unit. $1 .50. There was no premium attached to

00:41:15.409 --> 00:41:17.150
him whatsoever. There was no marketing hype,

00:41:17.210 --> 00:41:19.369
no full -page spreads in the magazines. There

00:41:19.369 --> 00:41:22.429
were absolutely zero expectations. He was just

00:41:22.429 --> 00:41:25.289
another cheap, obscure straw of semen sitting

00:41:25.289 --> 00:41:27.750
in the nitrogen tank used primarily when a farmer

00:41:27.750 --> 00:41:30.610
just needed a cheap cleanup bowl. That is, until

00:41:30.610 --> 00:41:32.929
his daughters actually began to freshen in the

00:41:32.929 --> 00:41:36.090
early 1970s. When those elevation daughters hit

00:41:36.090 --> 00:41:38.929
the milk line, the results completely shattered

00:41:38.929 --> 00:41:40.889
the established paradigms of dairy breeding.

00:41:41.110 --> 00:41:43.610
The results were Earth -shattering. Elevation

00:41:43.610 --> 00:41:45.670
achieved something that had never been done before.

00:41:45.909 --> 00:41:48.789
He became the very first proven Holstein bull

00:41:48.789 --> 00:41:52.329
in the modern AI era to combine a genuinely massive

00:41:52.329 --> 00:41:55.150
high -production proof with the physical confirmation

00:41:55.150 --> 00:41:57.869
desire show -winning type. The Holy Grail. He

00:41:57.869 --> 00:41:59.889
brought together the two deeply divided camps

00:41:59.889 --> 00:42:02.409
of the dairy world, the production chasers and

00:42:02.409 --> 00:42:04.230
the type enthusiasts. The historical production

00:42:04.230 --> 00:42:06.650
numbers from the sources are wild to look at.

00:42:06.889 --> 00:42:09.989
Elevation daughters were averaging 29 ,500 pounds

00:42:09.989 --> 00:42:12.500
of milk in their first lactation. We're talking

00:42:12.500 --> 00:42:15.739
about the 1970s. That volume was unheard of.

00:42:15.880 --> 00:42:19.400
That volume of milk was staggering. It was 15

00:42:19.400 --> 00:42:22.820
% above the absolute best of their peers. And

00:42:22.820 --> 00:42:24.980
the crucial factor is that they did not worn

00:42:24.980 --> 00:42:27.480
out and collapse like the high production cows

00:42:27.480 --> 00:42:30.300
of later decades. Exactly. The industry average

00:42:30.300 --> 00:42:33.019
at the time was roughly 2 .8 lactations per cow

00:42:33.019 --> 00:42:35.869
before they washed out. Elevation daughters averaged

00:42:35.869 --> 00:42:39.530
4 .2 lactations. They were living nearly 50 %

00:42:39.530 --> 00:42:42.010
longer, staying in the herd years past their

00:42:42.010 --> 00:42:44.190
contemporaries, while simultaneously producing

00:42:44.190 --> 00:42:47.400
15 % more milk every single day. The sheer biological

00:42:47.400 --> 00:42:50.000
efficiency of that combination was unprecedented.

00:42:50.519 --> 00:42:52.820
The scale of his financial impact on the cooperative

00:42:52.820 --> 00:42:55.579
system is almost impossible to overstate. There

00:42:55.579 --> 00:42:57.260
is a quote in the sources from George Miller

00:42:57.260 --> 00:42:59.940
that summarizes it perfectly. He said, Elevation

00:42:59.940 --> 00:43:02.380
built the barns at sire power and select sires.

00:43:02.500 --> 00:43:04.820
He literally paid for the bricks. The sheer revenue

00:43:04.820 --> 00:43:06.800
generated from selling the semen of this one,

00:43:06.900 --> 00:43:10.559
cheap $1 .50 backup bull, literally funded the

00:43:10.559 --> 00:43:12.179
physical infrastructure of what would become

00:43:12.179 --> 00:43:15.010
the largest AI cooperatives in the world. It

00:43:15.010 --> 00:43:16.869
is no wonder Holstein International eventually

00:43:16.869 --> 00:43:19.369
named him the Bull of the Century. To understand

00:43:19.369 --> 00:43:21.309
the true weight of elevation, you have to look

00:43:21.309 --> 00:43:24.190
at the genomic footprint he left behind. Because

00:43:24.190 --> 00:43:26.769
he was so universally loved for combining type

00:43:26.769 --> 00:43:29.739
and production, he was used Everywhere. Everywhere.

00:43:29.920 --> 00:43:34.139
Today, he makes up 15 .28 % of the entire Holstein

00:43:34.139 --> 00:43:37.820
genome. He recorded over 10 ,000 registered sons

00:43:37.820 --> 00:43:40.380
who went on to sire their own daughters. He has

00:43:40.380 --> 00:43:43.340
an estimated 8 .8 million descendants scattered

00:43:43.340 --> 00:43:46.179
across the globe. 8 .8 million. But there is

00:43:46.179 --> 00:43:48.480
one specific statistic from the genetic analysis

00:43:48.480 --> 00:43:50.820
that truly contextualizes everything we've discussed

00:43:50.820 --> 00:43:53.000
today about bottlenecks and inbreeding. Yes,

00:43:53.099 --> 00:43:54.840
this is the number that completely stops you

00:43:54.840 --> 00:43:57.139
in your tracks when you read the report. What

00:43:57.139 --> 00:43:59.719
is the modern reality of elevations like? Up

00:43:59.719 --> 00:44:03.139
to 99 % of all artificial insemination bulls

00:44:03.139 --> 00:44:05.760
born after the year 2010 trace their lineage

00:44:05.760 --> 00:44:08.639
back to either Elevation or to Walkway Keefe,

00:44:08.739 --> 00:44:12.940
Mark Sire, Ponty Farm, or Linda Chief. 99%. Just

00:44:12.940 --> 00:44:16.400
let that reality sink in for a moment. The entire

00:44:16.400 --> 00:44:19.579
modern Holstein breed, the entire foundational

00:44:19.579 --> 00:44:22.619
genetics of the global dairy industry, billions

00:44:22.619 --> 00:44:25.739
of dollars in global commerce, rests almost entirely

00:44:25.739 --> 00:44:28.059
on the shoulders of an accidental backup purchase

00:44:28.059 --> 00:44:31.539
in Illinois and a $1 .50 throwaway mating in

00:44:31.539 --> 00:44:34.480
Virginia. It's wild to think about. The bulls

00:44:34.480 --> 00:44:36.840
that actually push the breed forward, the ones

00:44:36.840 --> 00:44:38.599
that offer something genuinely different and

00:44:38.599 --> 00:44:40.980
necessary never come from the fashionable center

00:44:40.980 --> 00:44:44.059
of the industry. They always, always emerge from

00:44:44.059 --> 00:44:46.260
the fringes. Which brings us back to the stark

00:44:46.260 --> 00:44:49.469
reality of the present day. It raises a critical,

00:44:49.550 --> 00:44:51.869
urgent question for you sitting in the farm office

00:44:51.869 --> 00:44:54.449
right now. Right. If the entire industry is currently

00:44:54.449 --> 00:44:58.070
chasing the exact same top 50 TPI genomic young

00:44:58.070 --> 00:45:00.630
sires and the average inbreeding coefficient

00:45:00.630 --> 00:45:04.250
is rapidly approaching that 9 .99 % danger zone.

00:45:04.840 --> 00:45:06.940
How do you find the next elevation? How do you

00:45:06.940 --> 00:45:09.719
spot the next M. toto or the next O -man before

00:45:09.719 --> 00:45:11.820
the genetic bottleneck chokes off your herd's

00:45:11.820 --> 00:45:14.000
profitability? We have to take this rich history

00:45:14.000 --> 00:45:16.739
and translate it into a concrete modern playbook.

00:45:17.000 --> 00:45:19.420
We need to move from the archives into the barn

00:45:19.420 --> 00:45:21.579
math. This is where the rubber meets the road

00:45:21.579 --> 00:45:24.320
for the daily operation. If the next 40 -pound

00:45:24.320 --> 00:45:26.719
savior is hiding somewhere in today's massive

00:45:26.719 --> 00:45:30.099
sire catalogs... How do we actually spy him?

00:45:30.159 --> 00:45:32.440
Because history tells us he is not going to be

00:45:32.440 --> 00:45:34.619
the heavily promoted bull on the front cover.

00:45:34.739 --> 00:45:36.880
No, he's going to be buried somewhere on page

00:45:36.880 --> 00:45:39.440
40, ignored by the algorithms. So where do we

00:45:39.440 --> 00:45:41.360
start? You have to start by completely changing

00:45:41.360 --> 00:45:44.059
where you look. You have to look outside the

00:45:44.059 --> 00:45:47.659
U .S. top 50 TPI list. The European breeding

00:45:47.659 --> 00:45:50.039
programs actually recognized this inbreeding

00:45:50.039 --> 00:45:52.599
crisis decades ago and started taking active

00:45:52.599 --> 00:45:56.019
measures. Like who? If we look at the CRV cooperative

00:45:56.019 --> 00:45:58.699
in the Netherlands, they operate with a completely

00:45:58.699 --> 00:46:01.539
different philosophy. They deliberately draw

00:46:01.539 --> 00:46:04.760
from 40 different distinct black and white sire

00:46:04.760 --> 00:46:07.239
families specifically to maintain population

00:46:07.239 --> 00:46:09.440
diversity. It's spreading the risk. They have

00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:11.820
a bull in their current lineup named Delta Boyan.

00:46:11.920 --> 00:46:14.280
If you look at his profile, he scores incredibly

00:46:14.280 --> 00:46:16.900
high for biological efficiency and health. He

00:46:16.900 --> 00:46:19.179
has a breeding value of 112 for udder health

00:46:19.179 --> 00:46:22.800
and 111 for hoof health. He's a phenomenal preventative

00:46:22.800 --> 00:46:25.800
tool for mastitis and lameness. Or we can look

00:46:25.800 --> 00:46:28.619
at Viking genetics over in Scandinavia. They

00:46:28.619 --> 00:46:31.880
have a bull named V .H. Sandro. The projections

00:46:31.880 --> 00:46:33.860
for his daughters are remarkable. They average

00:46:33.860 --> 00:46:36.739
nearly 1 ,000 days in production. That is massive.

00:46:37.159 --> 00:46:38.960
That is almost three full years of relentless,

00:46:39.320 --> 00:46:43.039
healthy, uninterrupted milking. But what is the

00:46:43.039 --> 00:46:46.659
catch with bulls like Boyan and Sandro? Why aren't

00:46:46.659 --> 00:46:49.059
North American farmers using them heavily? The

00:46:49.059 --> 00:46:51.039
catch is that neither of those bulls will ever

00:46:51.039 --> 00:46:54.719
appear on a standard TPI top 100 list. Because

00:46:54.719 --> 00:46:56.980
their extreme health and longevity traits are

00:46:56.980 --> 00:46:59.340
balanced out by more moderate, sensible milk

00:46:59.340 --> 00:47:02.360
production numbers, the TPI formula penalizes

00:47:02.360 --> 00:47:04.400
them. So they get filtered out. They are totally

00:47:04.400 --> 00:47:07.059
invisible to any farm manager who is just logging

00:47:07.059 --> 00:47:09.239
into their mating software and filtering by the

00:47:09.239 --> 00:47:11.760
highest North American indexes. But we do not

00:47:11.760 --> 00:47:13.760
just have to look to Europe. The analysis points

00:47:13.760 --> 00:47:15.500
to U .S. candidates hiding in the shadows right

00:47:15.500 --> 00:47:19.260
now. Look at FB8084 adabiop. Great example. He

00:47:19.260 --> 00:47:22.059
boasts massive longevity traits, including a

00:47:22.059 --> 00:47:24.739
productive life score of plus 5 .3, which is

00:47:24.739 --> 00:47:28.039
incredible. His fertility traits are elite. But

00:47:28.039 --> 00:47:31.480
again, his peak milk production numbers are considered

00:47:31.480 --> 00:47:34.150
mediocre. by the extreme standards of the modern

00:47:34.150 --> 00:47:36.769
catalog. And because of that moderate production,

00:47:37.030 --> 00:47:39.309
he would be instantly scrolled past by anyone

00:47:39.309 --> 00:47:42.010
chasing the genetic leaderboard. But that is

00:47:42.010 --> 00:47:44.670
exactly the point we have been making. Adebayo

00:47:44.670 --> 00:47:48.030
Wupi fits the Amtoto profile perfectly. He is

00:47:48.030 --> 00:47:50.429
heavily weighted toward health, functionally

00:47:50.429 --> 00:47:53.510
bred to build a durable cow, and completely ignored

00:47:53.510 --> 00:47:56.960
by the mainstream. The 2026 equivalent of mTOTO

00:47:56.960 --> 00:47:59.659
is sitting in your catalog right now, just waiting

00:47:59.659 --> 00:48:01.659
for you to stop filtering for perfection and

00:48:01.659 --> 00:48:03.860
start filtering for survival. It really is. To

00:48:03.860 --> 00:48:05.900
make this incredibly practical, let us break

00:48:05.900 --> 00:48:08.539
this down into a concrete, undeniable action

00:48:08.539 --> 00:48:11.239
plan for you, the listener. The experts in our

00:48:11.239 --> 00:48:13.880
sources have developed a specific 30-, 90-, and

00:48:13.880 --> 00:48:17.380
365 -day checklist to overhaul a farm's genetic

00:48:17.380 --> 00:48:19.699
roster. Let's do it. Let's start with the immediate

00:48:19.699 --> 00:48:22.000
future. What is the very first thing a farm manager

00:48:22.000 --> 00:48:23.860
needs to do when they walk into the office tomorrow

00:48:23.860 --> 00:48:26.469
morning? Day 1 to 30 is all about diagnosis.

00:48:26.929 --> 00:48:29.829
You need to pull your EFI report. That stands

00:48:29.829 --> 00:48:33.070
for Expected Future in Breeding. Every major

00:48:33.070 --> 00:48:35.389
dairy mating software program generates this.

00:48:35.550 --> 00:48:37.550
So it's easy to find. Very easy. You need to

00:48:37.550 --> 00:48:40.309
look at your herd's average EFI. If that number

00:48:40.309 --> 00:48:42.869
is creeping above 7%, you are officially in the

00:48:42.869 --> 00:48:45.110
danger zone. You need to immediately alter your

00:48:45.110 --> 00:48:46.849
breeding strategy for those high -risk animals.

00:48:47.050 --> 00:48:49.789
Action right now. Start using a designated outcross

00:48:49.789 --> 00:48:53.489
bull. a backup sire or even utilize beef on dairy

00:48:53.489 --> 00:48:55.829
semen for those specific matings to break the

00:48:55.829 --> 00:48:58.230
genetic cycle do not wait for the next proof

00:48:58.230 --> 00:49:01.369
run to fix it the biological damage is compounding

00:49:01.369 --> 00:49:03.929
every single time a highly inbred calf hits the

00:49:03.929 --> 00:49:05.989
ground checking the efi gives you the baseline

00:49:05.989 --> 00:49:08.889
what is the operational goal for the next 90

00:49:08.889 --> 00:49:11.949
days day 30 to 90 is the audit phase you must

00:49:11.949 --> 00:49:14.630
audit your actual sire usage this is where a

00:49:14.630 --> 00:49:16.570
manager's intention usually collides with reality

00:49:16.570 --> 00:49:18.869
what do you mean Most farms believe they have

00:49:18.869 --> 00:49:21.269
a nicely diversified semen tank. But when you

00:49:21.269 --> 00:49:23.190
pull the actual breeding records for the last

00:49:23.190 --> 00:49:25.949
six months, you often find out that the AI technician

00:49:25.949 --> 00:49:28.409
or the breeder got lazy, reached for the most

00:49:28.409 --> 00:49:31.309
familiar straw, and suddenly 60 % of all matings

00:49:31.309 --> 00:49:34.989
went to just one or two trendy bulls. Human nature.

00:49:35.210 --> 00:49:37.889
Exactly. If your franchise bull consumed more

00:49:37.889 --> 00:49:40.530
than 40 % of your total matings last cycle, your

00:49:40.530 --> 00:49:43.050
roster is broken and you are actively building

00:49:43.050 --> 00:49:45.110
a bottleneck. This is where the math regarding

00:49:45.110 --> 00:49:47.489
genomic testing becomes absolutely undeniable.

00:49:47.710 --> 00:49:50.030
Let's do the actual dollars and cents here, because

00:49:50.030 --> 00:49:52.210
testing heifers feels like a massive upfront

00:49:52.210 --> 00:49:55.530
expense. Say a farm has 200 replacement heifers.

00:49:55.750 --> 00:49:58.510
Testing them genomically costs roughly $7 ,000

00:49:58.510 --> 00:50:00.889
to $10 ,000, depending on the lab. It's a big

00:50:00.889 --> 00:50:03.090
check to write. To a farmer watching their cash

00:50:03.090 --> 00:50:05.570
flow, writing a $10 ,000 check just for data

00:50:05.570 --> 00:50:08.289
is a hard pill to swallow. How does the research

00:50:08.289 --> 00:50:10.849
justify that cost? You have to look at the hidden

00:50:10.849 --> 00:50:13.469
cost of not testing. The research from Virginia

00:50:13.469 --> 00:50:15.530
Tech breaks this down beautifully. They found

00:50:15.530 --> 00:50:18.150
that every 1 % increase in a cow's inbreeding

00:50:18.150 --> 00:50:21.710
coefficient costs the farm roughly $40 to $43

00:50:21.710 --> 00:50:25.210
in lost lifetime profit, primarily due to depressed

00:50:25.210 --> 00:50:27.809
milk components, higher vet bills, and early

00:50:27.809 --> 00:50:30.230
culling. Let us calculate that out. If you have

00:50:30.230 --> 00:50:33.130
a 200 -cow herd and their average inbreeding

00:50:33.130 --> 00:50:35.989
is sitting at 10%, that accumulated lifetime

00:50:35.989 --> 00:50:38.630
production drag across the herd is costing you

00:50:38.630 --> 00:50:41.929
somewhere between $80 ,000 and $86 ,000. Yes.

00:50:42.289 --> 00:50:45.809
It is a slow, silent, invisible bleed on your

00:50:45.809 --> 00:50:48.789
balance sheet. Exactly. It is $80 ,000 of lost

00:50:48.789 --> 00:50:51.110
potential. By spending that initial $10 ,000

00:50:51.110 --> 00:50:53.590
to genomically test those heifers, you map their

00:50:53.590 --> 00:50:55.889
exact genetic flaws. You can then use your mating

00:50:55.889 --> 00:50:58.090
software to precisely select sires that will

00:50:58.090 --> 00:51:01.309
drop that average herd EFI by just 1%. Just 1%.

00:51:01.309 --> 00:51:04.250
That single 1 % drop instantly avoids $8 ,000

00:51:04.250 --> 00:51:06.769
to $8 ,600 in lifetime drag. If you drop it by

00:51:06.769 --> 00:51:08.949
2%, the test is paid for itself entirely with

00:51:08.949 --> 00:51:10.969
a massive return on investment. The genomic test

00:51:10.969 --> 00:51:12.889
literally pays for itself before the resulting

00:51:12.889 --> 00:51:14.849
calf even hits the ground. It is the single best

00:51:14.849 --> 00:51:16.610
protective investment you can make in the barn.

00:51:16.769 --> 00:51:20.190
So we have tested the heifers, we know the exact

00:51:20.190 --> 00:51:22.829
inbreeding levels, and we know which cow families

00:51:22.829 --> 00:51:25.769
are at risk. How do we actually structure the

00:51:25.769 --> 00:51:28.150
semen tank inventory to prevent this bottleneck

00:51:28.150 --> 00:51:30.280
from creeping back in? You need to institute

00:51:30.280 --> 00:51:33.119
what the experts call the four slot roster system.

00:51:33.380 --> 00:51:36.079
Do not just passively buy whatever the semen

00:51:36.079 --> 00:51:38.099
salesman puts in front of you. You must dictate

00:51:38.099 --> 00:51:41.840
the tank inventory. Ebroactive. Allocate 35 %

00:51:41.840 --> 00:51:44.739
of your total matings to a franchise profit bull.

00:51:45.019 --> 00:51:47.579
This is your net merit or cheese merit leader,

00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:50.840
the reliable moneymaker. Then put 25 % toward

00:51:50.840 --> 00:51:53.360
a component hammer, a bull, whose sole purpose

00:51:53.360 --> 00:51:55.699
to drive up the fat and protein percentages for

00:51:55.699 --> 00:51:58.150
the cheese market. Okay, that's 60%. Put another

00:51:58.150 --> 00:52:01.110
25 % toward a durability and fertility fixer.

00:52:01.110 --> 00:52:03.690
This is your modern O -Man or M -Toto equivalent,

00:52:04.030 --> 00:52:07.130
the ugly but indestructible outcross. And finally,

00:52:07.190 --> 00:52:09.469
dedicate the last 15 % of your mating strictly

00:52:09.469 --> 00:52:12.789
to a genuine deep pedigree outcross bowl to continually

00:52:12.789 --> 00:52:15.969
inject fresh bloodlines into the herd. 35, 25,

00:52:16.289 --> 00:52:20.010
25, 15. That structure builds a genetic firewall

00:52:20.010 --> 00:52:22.429
into the herd. It ensures you are getting the

00:52:22.429 --> 00:52:25.269
profit of the mainstream while constantly buffering

00:52:25.269 --> 00:52:27.849
against the bottlenecks. Finally, what is the

00:52:27.849 --> 00:52:30.550
12 -month goal for the farm manager? Over the

00:52:30.550 --> 00:52:32.690
next 12 months, you need to fundamentally change

00:52:32.690 --> 00:52:35.150
how you communicate with your AI representative.

00:52:35.829 --> 00:52:39.050
Stop asking them what the hottest new young genomic

00:52:39.050 --> 00:52:41.750
sire is. Start asking them about repeat order

00:52:41.750 --> 00:52:46.760
rates. The blip signal. Exactly. Which bulls

00:52:46.760 --> 00:52:49.039
are generating the strongest repeat orders from

00:52:49.039 --> 00:52:51.460
commercial herds that are already milking a hundred

00:52:51.460 --> 00:52:53.780
or more of his daughters? Because when the farmer

00:52:53.780 --> 00:52:56.139
down the road milks a heifer for a year, watches

00:52:56.139 --> 00:52:58.260
her perform, and then immediately calls the rep

00:52:58.260 --> 00:53:01.239
to order 50 more straws of her exact sire, that

00:53:01.239 --> 00:53:03.280
is the truth. That's the real data. That is the

00:53:03.280 --> 00:53:05.340
unvarnished truth of the commercial market. That

00:53:05.340 --> 00:53:08.260
is where your next highly profitable backup bull

00:53:08.260 --> 00:53:10.860
is hiding. The journey we have traced today in

00:53:10.860 --> 00:53:13.420
this deep dive is just a masterclass in unintended

00:53:13.420 --> 00:53:16.980
consequences and hidden value. We started with

00:53:16.980 --> 00:53:19.739
Walkway Chief Mark, a literal accident purchased

00:53:19.739 --> 00:53:22.239
only because a golden boy died, who gave the

00:53:22.239 --> 00:53:24.820
breed incredible udders but cursed it with the

00:53:24.820 --> 00:53:27.900
APAF1 mutation, costing the industry half a billion

00:53:27.900 --> 00:53:30.800
dollars. What a wild ride. We explored Carroll

00:53:30.800 --> 00:53:33.920
Prelude. Belto, a 40 -pound Italian gamble whose

00:53:33.920 --> 00:53:36.480
unglamorous strength fixed the fragile, collapsing

00:53:36.480 --> 00:53:38.980
bell -lined cows, eventually giving a shuttle,

00:53:39.159 --> 00:53:41.440
the bull whose durable daughter saved countless

00:53:41.440 --> 00:53:44.159
farms during the brutal 2008 feed crash. Zaved

00:53:44.159 --> 00:53:46.760
their livelihoods. We saw Oman and Blitz, the

00:53:46.760 --> 00:53:48.760
anti -type kings, who proved to the world that

00:53:48.760 --> 00:53:50.780
a negative three udder score is completely irrelevant

00:53:50.780 --> 00:53:53.159
if the cow never gets sick and never stops making

00:53:53.159 --> 00:53:55.820
milk. And we traced the entire phenomenon back

00:53:55.820 --> 00:53:59.000
to Elevation, the $1 .50 throwaway mating from

00:53:59.000 --> 00:54:00.880
Virginia, who essentially built the infrastructure.

00:54:02.070 --> 00:54:05.630
The historical pattern is undeniable, and it

00:54:05.630 --> 00:54:08.789
repeats every single decade. The genetics that

00:54:08.789 --> 00:54:11.610
ultimately save your farm are rarely the genetics

00:54:11.610 --> 00:54:14.110
that win the show ring ribbons. They are the

00:54:14.110 --> 00:54:16.989
quiet, unassuming, hyper -durable outsiders.

00:54:17.449 --> 00:54:21.170
The unglamorous... Backup bulls you quietly add

00:54:21.170 --> 00:54:23.730
to just 15 to 20 percent of your matings today

00:54:23.730 --> 00:54:27.429
will entirely dictate whether your herd has the

00:54:27.429 --> 00:54:29.829
biological resilience to survive the economic

00:54:29.829 --> 00:54:33.269
pressures of tomorrow. That is the ultimate barn

00:54:33.269 --> 00:54:37.289
math. Look past the glossy catalog covers. Ignore

00:54:37.289 --> 00:54:39.949
the algorithms hype. Manage the inbreeding in

00:54:39.949 --> 00:54:42.090
your herd before the inbreeding manages you right

00:54:42.090 --> 00:54:43.869
out of business. That's another story from the

00:54:43.869 --> 00:54:45.889
Bullvine podcast. These are the people building

00:54:45.889 --> 00:54:48.440
the future of dairy. We hope this deep dive has

00:54:48.440 --> 00:54:50.679
given you a completely new perspective on what

00:54:50.679 --> 00:54:52.619
is currently sitting in your semen tank, and

00:54:52.619 --> 00:54:54.840
more importantly, what should be sitting in your

00:54:54.840 --> 00:54:56.960
semen tank. Thank you for joining us on this

00:54:56.960 --> 00:54:59.059
exploration of the dairy breed's greatest, most

00:54:59.059 --> 00:55:01.440
profitable accidents. But before we sign off,

00:55:01.519 --> 00:55:03.619
there is a final, highly provocative thought

00:55:03.619 --> 00:55:05.699
lingering in the research that we need to address.

00:55:05.940 --> 00:55:08.139
Let's hear it. We know the undeniable statistics

00:55:08.139 --> 00:55:11.780
up to 99 % of modern bulls trace back to elevation

00:55:11.780 --> 00:55:14.989
or chief. We know the genetic base of the Holstein

00:55:14.989 --> 00:55:17.829
breed is shrinking at a terrifying rate. And

00:55:17.829 --> 00:55:20.630
we know that today's true durable outcrosses

00:55:20.630 --> 00:55:22.610
are getting routinely ignored simply because

00:55:22.610 --> 00:55:25.869
they do not fit the TPI computer algorithm. So

00:55:25.869 --> 00:55:28.230
think about this current trend. We're seeing

00:55:28.230 --> 00:55:30.750
a massive rise in beef on dairy breeding across

00:55:30.750 --> 00:55:33.349
the industry, where commercial farmers are heavily

00:55:33.349 --> 00:55:36.150
using Angus or Wagyu semen on their lowest performing...

00:55:36.619 --> 00:55:38.800
plainest Holstein cows to generate a premium

00:55:38.800 --> 00:55:41.539
beef calf. This is happening everywhere. But

00:55:41.539 --> 00:55:44.380
what incredibly durable, long -lasting, invisible

00:55:44.380 --> 00:55:47.139
Plan B maternal line is currently sitting in

00:55:47.139 --> 00:55:49.760
a commercial dairy's cull pile simply because

00:55:49.760 --> 00:55:51.920
a computer model said she was too plain to breed

00:55:51.920 --> 00:55:54.659
black and white? What rough, rugged, genetic

00:55:54.659 --> 00:55:56.760
gold mine are we actively throwing away right

00:55:56.760 --> 00:55:58.780
now that we will desperately need to save the

00:55:58.780 --> 00:56:02.219
breed in 10 years? Find more at www .thebullvine

00:56:02.219 --> 00:56:04.409
.com. That is definitely something to mull over

00:56:04.409 --> 00:56:06.469
the next time you are walking the barn aisles

00:56:06.469 --> 00:56:08.610
at 4 a .m. Keep doing the math. Keep looking

00:56:08.610 --> 00:56:10.610
for the durable diamonds in the rough, and we

00:56:10.610 --> 00:56:40.829
will see you on the next deep dive. Tell the

00:56:40.829 --> 00:56:46.010
tale, tell the tale, the Beaumont legends live

00:56:46.010 --> 00:56:46.530
here.