WEBVTT

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Breaking free from the chains of the past Where

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truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law

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waiting on some printed page We're charting new

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ground in the digital age From genomic codes

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to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold

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them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight

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we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast,

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where we cut through dairy industry noise to

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get you the insights that actually matter for

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your operation. I am your analytical lead. And

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I am your practical farmer perspective. And today,

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we are diving deep into a feature piece about

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functional profitability. Or, as I like to call

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it, why the cow's winning ribbons might be the

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exact ones draining your bank account. We're

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definitely going to ruffle some feathers today

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with this deep dive. We are digging into a massive

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piece of research, the million cow proof for

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functional profitability. And this isn't just

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theory. Right. It involves hard data from Dr.

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Jeffrey Buehle at Holstein Association USA and

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the absolute legacy of Ed Bosses. at Bosdale

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Farms. I really love this topic. It is, you know,

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it's one of those things we talk about at the

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coffee shop but rarely see put down on paper

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with this kind of actual mathematical ricker.

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Exactly. But before we get into the nitty gritty

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of why my favorite show cow might be a liability,

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let's set the stage for the listener. Why are

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we talking about this right now? Why does this

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specific study matter to you, the dairy farmer,

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right now? It is the economy, frankly. You know

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the numbers better than anyone. You feel it every

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single time you write a check. I do. Look, I

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was just crunching the USDA data on replacement

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prices before we hopped on the mic today. And

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we have to talk about the sheer sticker shock

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out there. Yeah. If you rewind the clock to,

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say, October 2023, you could pick up. a decent

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replacement heifer for around $1 ,990, basically

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two grand. Which even then felt like a fair chunk

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of change. It really did. But you fast forward

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to July 2025. That same heifer, and maybe even

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of lesser genetic quality, depending on where

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you are buying her, is costing you $3 ,010? That

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is a massive jump. That is not just standard

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inflation. That is a fundamental shift in the

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market structure of the dairy industry. It is

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a 164 % increase from the lows we saw back in

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2019. I mean, I remember 2019. You could barely

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give heifers away. Right. The market was flooded.

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Exactly. Now, you are paying a massive premium

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just to get a heartbeat in the parlor. So when

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you are paying three grand just to get a heifer

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to the point where she can even start paying

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you back, the margin for error is gone. Totally

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gone. You cannot afford to have her wash out

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in the first lactation because she is too frail

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to handle concrete or she just can't get bread

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back. Exactly. With input costs where they are,

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and we haven't even touched on feed or labor

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or interest rates, the era of trophy genetics

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is officially dead. I'm going to call it right

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now. Breeding cows just because they look pretty

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in a photo or because they might catch a judge's

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eye at the county fair. That is a luxury hobby

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now. Farmers literally cannot afford to pay rent

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on those cows anymore. And the stakes are so

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high. We aren't talking about saving a few pennies

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on semen straws here. We're talking about a difference

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of $2 ,678 per cow in lifetime revenue. That

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number stops you right in your tracks. It does.

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That is not pocket change. For a lot of guys.

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That is a new tractor payment. That is a significant

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chunk of a robotic milk release. Or honestly,

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that is just the difference between staying in

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business for the next generation or selling the

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quota and calling it quits. We're going to challenge

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the holy grail of the show ring today. You're

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going to talk about why dairy character, that

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trait we've been told to worship for decades,

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is often just a fancy word for frail. And we're

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going to dissect why your utter composite score,

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that number you probably circle in the bull catalog

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immediately, is lying to your face. Oh boy, the

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classifiers aren't going to like this deep dive.

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I can already hear the angry emails being typed

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up. But let's get into it. This all starts with

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a specific benchmark. Start us off with Ed Boss.

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Who is he and why is his philosophy the anchor

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for this entire conversation? So Ed Boss is a

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legend up in Cambridge, Ontario. Bosdale Farms.

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And to understand Ed, you have to understand

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the era he operated in. For 50 years, five whole

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decades, he was watching the industry chase a

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very specific look. The 80s and 90s especially,

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we were completely obsessed with height. Obsessed.

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We wanted tall, sharp, angular cows that looked

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like giraffes. We wanted a clean bone. We wanted

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necks that went on forever. And while everyone

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else was chasing that aesthetic, Ed kept his

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head down. He completely ignored the industry

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trend. It is incredibly hard to do that. The

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peer pressure in this industry is immense. You

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want to walk into the barn with your neighbor

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and have them say, wow, look at the style on

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that two year old. You want that validation.

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Ignoring that takes a serious backbone. It does.

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But Ed focused exclusively on functional traits.

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He was looking at udders, feet, legs and rumps.

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He didn't care about stature. In fact, he arguably

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penalized it if it came at the cost of functionality.

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He didn't care about that clean bone look if

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it meant the cow was weak or narrow. And the

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assumption, usually, is that if you ignore the

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style traits, you end up with a barn full of

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ugly functional cows. Commercial cows, in the

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derogatory sense of the word. Did he end up with

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a barn full of ugly cows? Far from it. That is

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the irony here. He ended up with 415 excellent

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classified Holsteins and three master breeder

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shields. Three master breeder shields. You definitely

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don't get those by accident. No, you don't. He

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proved that you don't need to follow the fad

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to get the tight points. A great cow is a great

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cow. But more importantly, and this is exactly

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why we are talking about him today, he was vindicated

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by the data. Dr. Jeffrey Buehle's team at Holstein

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Association USA decided to run the numbers. And

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they didn't just look at a few hundred cows,

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they looked at over one million cows. A million

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cows. That is a sample size you simply cannot

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argue with. You can argue with a study of 50

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cows in a university research barn. You can't

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argue with a million actual records. Exactly.

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And here's the kicker. Buley admits he went into

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this entirely skeptical. He thought confirmation

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was soft data. He's a numbers guy. He thought

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type was just for the show jockeys and that genomics

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and production data were the only things that

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really drove profit. He thought type was just

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vanity. Right. But the data absolutely shocked

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him. They compared the top quartile of cows,

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those scoring 82 to 89 points, which is the good

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plus, to very good range against the bottom quartile,

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those scoring 76 and below. The fair and poor

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cows, the ones you usually don't talk about.

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The ones you hide out back when visitors come.

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And the difference was staggering. The top quartile

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cows, the ones with the functional type, gave

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13 ,389 pounds more lifetime energy corrected

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milk. Wait, let's pause on that. 13 ,000 pounds.

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That is half a lactation for some herds. That

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is a massive amount of fluid milk. It is. And

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it wasn't because they milked harder per day

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necessarily. It was because they lasted. They

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stayed in the herd 142 more days on average.

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That is nearly five extra months of production

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compared to the low type cows. So let me get

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this straight. We aren't saying type in the sense

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of winning at Madison is profitable. We are saying

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functional type, the actual physical machinery

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that keeps the cow working is profitable. Correct.

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That equates to roughly $2 ,678 more gross revenue.

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But, and this is the big caveat, the traits that

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kept them in the herd weren't the ones that win

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grand champion banners. It wasn't stature. It

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wasn't extreme angularity. It was udders and

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feet. Okay, but play devil's advocate with me

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here. I am a farmer. I am looking at a Sire catalog

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right now. I buy bulls with high udder composite

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or UDC because I want good udders. That is just

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common sense. If I see a bull with plus 2 .50

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UDC, I assume I am getting great udders. Are

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you telling me I am wrong? I am telling you that

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you might be falling into what we call the stature

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trap. The stature trap. I feel like I've walked

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right into this one before. Make it make sense

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for the guy driving the chopper right now. Here

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is the math problem that does not fit on the

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breed association poster. There is a roughly

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50 % genetic correlation between stature and

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utter composite. Wait, explain that. What does

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a 50 % correlation actually look like in the

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real world? It means the formula for calculating

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utter composite is heavily, heavily weighted

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by how tall the cow is. If a little is plus three

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for stature, his UDC is mathematically inflated.

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The formula essentially says, well, she's tall,

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so her utter must be good. So it is a bias. It

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is a built -in bias in the math itself. It is.

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You aren't necessarily getting better attachments.

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You aren't necessarily getting a stronger suspensory

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ligament or better key placement. You are getting

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taller daughters. And the Index Awards points

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for that height, disguising it as udder quality.

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That explains so much. I have literally stood

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in my barn looking at two -year -olds from high

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UDC balls, scratching my head. They are sky -high,

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literal giants, but the udders are just average.

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Or worse, they are deep. And I am thinking the

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catalog promised me a 2 .5 udder. Exactly. You

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bought the height and the udder score just rode

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along for free. Nate Zwald from Alta Genetics

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demonstrated this beautifully a few years ago.

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He showed three hypothetical sires to a room

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full of breeders. I love these hypothetical scenarios.

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It really clears the fog. So you have sire A.

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Sire A is tall. He has good type on paper. Then

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you have sire B, who is moderate, and sire C,

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who is small. Now, if you hold the actual functional

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utter traits constant, so they all have the exact

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same actual utter quality, Sire A ranked fourth

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on TPI. Just because he was tall. Purely because

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the stature boosted his composite scores. Sire

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B, the moderate one, he ranked 100th. And Sire

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C, the small bull with the exact same utter,

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he ranked 1 ,000th. That is insane. So I am paying

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a premium for the fourth -ranked bull, probably

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paying $40 or $50 a straw thinking I'm getting

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world -class udders, but I am actually just buying

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altitude. You are buying expensive air. Swald

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put it perfectly. He said it shouldn't take a

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tall cow to have a good udder. But the index

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makes it look like it does. And this leads to

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what the researchers call floor -hugging udders.

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Floor -hugging. That sounds descriptive and not

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in a good way. It is not. Think about it. If

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you breed a tall cow... She has a deeper body

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cavity. She inevitably gets deeper. If you couple

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that with the trend for deep rear rib and capacity,

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you end up with udders that hang much lower relative

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to the hock, even if the attachments are okay.

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Deep bodies and deep udders are major culling

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risks. Because they get stepped on. Because they

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get mastitis. Yeah. Because they drag in the

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mud. Exactly. And it is not just U .S. data either.

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We aren't just picking on American Holsteins

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today. Studies from Brazil by Kern, South Africa

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by Satati, Hungary by Turok, they all found the

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exact same thing. The deadliest combination you

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can have in a dairy cow is extreme angularity

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plus a low rear udder. Which is exactly what

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we used to breed for. Open rib, dairyness, sweep

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to the rib. We wanted them to look like they

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were working hard. We wanted that sharpness.

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And that brings us perfectly... Use the word

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lie. I like it. We have always been told sharpness

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means milk. A thick cow is a lazy cow, right?

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That is what my grandfather told me. That is

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what the judge says when he places the class.

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She's cleaner cut. She's more dairy. Your grandfather

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was breeding in a totally different era, with

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different feed and entirely different management

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systems. Today, dairy character is often just

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a euphemism for lack of constitution. DeCho and

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his team showed a negative 0 .73 genetic correlation

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between body condition score and dairy form.

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Negative 0 .73. Break that down. In the world

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of genetics, that is practically a lock, isn't

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it? It is a seesaw. Think of it like a seesaw

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on a playground. If you push the dairy form side

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up, making them sharper, more angular, more refined,

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the body condition side blindly crashes down.

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You cannot have both. You are genetically programming

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that cow to be fin. So she is genetically wired

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to strip the fat right off her back? Yes. She

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cannot hold flesh. So she calves in. She has

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that massive energy demand for milk production.

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She burns all her fat reserves in the first 60

00:12:52.350 --> 00:12:56.470
days. And she crashes. Ketosis. Displaced abomasum.

00:12:56.610 --> 00:12:58.730
And then the big one, she doesn't breed back.

00:12:58.970 --> 00:13:00.970
Because her body thinks she is starving. Exactly.

00:13:01.070 --> 00:13:03.429
Biology takes over. A starving mammal does not

00:13:03.429 --> 00:13:06.289
ovulate. So she is open at 150 days. She is open

00:13:06.289 --> 00:13:09.129
at 200 days. And then she leaves the herd. And

00:13:09.129 --> 00:13:12.230
you are out $3 ,010 for a replacement because

00:13:12.230 --> 00:13:14.429
you thought she looked dairy. That hits hard.

00:13:14.490 --> 00:13:16.529
We are literally breeding for a metabolic crisis.

00:13:16.950 --> 00:13:20.710
We are. And here's a shocking stat from Alcantara's

00:13:20.710 --> 00:13:23.149
analysis at the University of Gulf. This is Canadian

00:13:23.149 --> 00:13:25.490
data, so it feeds directly into the pro dollar

00:13:25.490 --> 00:13:29.509
index. Yeah. They looked at 9 ,351 bulls. They

00:13:29.509 --> 00:13:31.610
analyzed which traits actually contributed to

00:13:31.610 --> 00:13:35.460
profit. Body depth, which is a show ring, absolute

00:13:35.460 --> 00:13:37.840
favorite. We love a deep bodied open root cow

00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:40.539
is the single most negative contributor to the

00:13:40.539 --> 00:13:43.080
Canadian pro dollar index. Wait, deep body loses

00:13:43.080 --> 00:13:46.110
money. It loses money. It is a drag on your profit.

00:13:46.149 --> 00:13:48.570
It costs more to maintain that frame size, and

00:13:48.570 --> 00:13:50.049
it correlates with frailty. Do you know what

00:13:50.049 --> 00:13:52.549
the unsung hero was? The trait that actually

00:13:52.549 --> 00:13:54.210
makes money? I'm going to guess it is something

00:13:54.210 --> 00:13:57.070
boring. It is always the boring traits. Heel

00:13:57.070 --> 00:13:59.789
depth. Heel depth. Of course it is. No one is

00:13:59.789 --> 00:14:02.490
standing ringside cheering for a cow's heel depth.

00:14:02.649 --> 00:14:04.370
Wow, look at the heel on that one. It is not

00:14:04.370 --> 00:14:07.529
sexy at all. But they should be cheering. If

00:14:07.529 --> 00:14:09.750
we were smart, we would be giving the championship

00:14:09.750 --> 00:14:13.600
ribbons for heels. Heel depth is the most positive

00:14:13.600 --> 00:14:16.019
contributor to profitability in that entire study.

00:14:16.460 --> 00:14:19.039
Because if a cow has a deep ear, she has a good

00:14:19.039 --> 00:14:21.360
foot angle. If she has a good foot angle, she

00:14:21.360 --> 00:14:23.179
walks comfortably. If she walks comfortably,

00:14:23.320 --> 00:14:25.600
she goes to the bunk and eats. If she eats, she

00:14:25.600 --> 00:14:28.379
milks, and she doesn't get lame. It is the foundation.

00:14:28.639 --> 00:14:32.139
We are building skyscrapers on swank land when

00:14:32.139 --> 00:14:34.600
we ignore feet. So effectively, we are giving

00:14:34.600 --> 00:14:37.419
blue ribbons to traits that lose money, like

00:14:37.419 --> 00:14:40.220
body depth, and completely ignoring the traits

00:14:40.220 --> 00:14:43.220
that keep cows alive, like heel depth. We are

00:14:43.220 --> 00:14:45.500
breeding for vanity, not sanity. That is the

00:14:45.500 --> 00:14:47.799
bumper sticker for this deep dive. Breeding for

00:14:47.799 --> 00:14:51.730
vanity, not sanity. Okay, let's talk money. Because

00:14:51.730 --> 00:14:53.669
I am sitting here thinking about my feed bill,

00:14:53.789 --> 00:14:56.590
and I am thinking about that $2 ,678 number.

00:14:56.830 --> 00:14:58.990
But let's break down the half lactation economics.

00:14:59.389 --> 00:15:01.649
What does that mean for the listener? This comes

00:15:01.649 --> 00:15:04.289
from Lactinet data. They mapped the lifetime

00:15:04.289 --> 00:15:07.789
profit curve. It is a graph every single dairy

00:15:07.789 --> 00:15:09.629
farmer should have taped to their office wall.

00:15:10.179 --> 00:15:13.200
A cow does not pay back her raising costs, that

00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:15.100
$2 ,000 to $3 ,000 investment we talked about

00:15:15.100 --> 00:15:18.620
earlier, until she is 40 months old. 40 months.

00:15:18.779 --> 00:15:21.799
So she calves at 24 months. She milks for a year.

00:15:22.279 --> 00:15:26.299
That puts her at 36 months. Then a dry period.

00:15:26.519 --> 00:15:28.519
So we were talking about the middle of her second

00:15:28.519 --> 00:15:30.860
lactation. Right. She has to calve a second time

00:15:30.860 --> 00:15:33.659
and reach peak milk in her second lactation before

00:15:33.659 --> 00:15:36.659
she has generated one single dollar of pure profit

00:15:36.659 --> 00:15:39.620
for you. That is the valley of death for cash

00:15:39.620 --> 00:15:42.100
flow. It really is. So if you call her at the

00:15:42.100 --> 00:15:44.460
end of the first lactation because she is frail

00:15:44.460 --> 00:15:46.639
or she has bad feet or she didn't breed back,

00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:49.919
you didn't just make zero profit. You literally

00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:52.940
lit two grand on fire. You subsidized her life.

00:15:53.100 --> 00:15:55.320
You paid for her feed, her bedding, her vaccines,

00:15:55.559 --> 00:15:58.019
and you got nothing back but a cold check that

00:15:58.019 --> 00:16:00.240
barely covers the trucking. That hurts to hear.

00:16:00.340 --> 00:16:02.539
It really does. Because we all have those heifers,

00:16:02.559 --> 00:16:04.320
the ones that look great at two years old, but

00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:05.919
by the time they're three, they're just gone.

00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:08.059
Let's do the bar in math. I want to make this

00:16:08.059 --> 00:16:12.500
real for you. Imagine a 300 cow dairy. Pretty

00:16:12.500 --> 00:16:15.080
standard family operation. If you can move your

00:16:15.080 --> 00:16:18.139
average lactation number from 2 .7, which is

00:16:18.139 --> 00:16:21.179
pretty typical, to 3 .2, that is just a half

00:16:21.179 --> 00:16:23.980
lactation increase. We aren't asking for miracles

00:16:23.980 --> 00:16:26.299
here, just keeping them six months longer. Okay.

00:16:26.639 --> 00:16:29.360
Half a lactation. That shift means you need about

00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:33.139
17 fewer heifers per year to maintain your herd

00:16:33.139 --> 00:16:35.700
size. 17 heifers doesn't sound like a ton until

00:16:35.700 --> 00:16:39.169
you actually do the math on it. At $3 ,010 a

00:16:39.169 --> 00:16:42.169
head over five years, that is more than $255

00:16:42.169 --> 00:16:44.950
,000 in avoided replacement purchases. That is

00:16:44.950 --> 00:16:47.190
a quarter of a million dollars just by keeping

00:16:47.190 --> 00:16:49.610
them alive six months longer. That feeds a lot

00:16:49.610 --> 00:16:52.370
of families. That pays off the milking robot.

00:16:52.710 --> 00:16:55.450
That buys the neighbor's land when it comes up

00:16:55.450 --> 00:16:57.370
for sale. And that doesn't even count the extra

00:16:57.370 --> 00:17:00.029
milk. Because remember, a third lactation cow

00:17:00.029 --> 00:17:02.549
gives way more milk than a first lactation heifer.

00:17:02.669 --> 00:17:05.670
You get a maturity bonus. A mature cow is a milk

00:17:05.670 --> 00:17:08.559
factory. A heifer is still expending energy growing

00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:11.099
her own frame. So it is a double whammy. You

00:17:11.099 --> 00:17:13.720
save the replacement, cost the actual cash outlay,

00:17:13.819 --> 00:17:16.480
and you get higher volume milk in the tank. Why

00:17:16.480 --> 00:17:18.599
are we not all doing this? Why is the turnover

00:17:18.599 --> 00:17:21.440
rate still so high in the industry? Because we

00:17:21.440 --> 00:17:24.440
are addicted to the fresh heifer look. We like

00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:26.579
the turnover. We like seeing the genetic progress

00:17:26.579 --> 00:17:29.640
on paper. But the pro -dollar analysis confirms

00:17:29.640 --> 00:17:34.519
this. Top pro -dollar sires result in 7 .4 %

00:17:34.519 --> 00:17:37.660
more daughters surviving to six years compared

00:17:37.660 --> 00:17:40.740
to middle -ranked sires. Bottom pro -dollar sires,

00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:44.059
6 % fewer survivors. So the genetics actually

00:17:44.059 --> 00:17:46.359
work if you pick the right bulls, if you pick

00:17:46.359 --> 00:17:48.740
the bulls that prioritize longevity over style.

00:17:49.039 --> 00:17:51.220
Exactly. It is all about picking for the right

00:17:51.220 --> 00:17:52.859
traits. Let's look at some people who are actually

00:17:52.859 --> 00:17:55.240
walking the walk. Because it is easy to sit here

00:17:55.240 --> 00:17:57.500
in the studio and talk theory. Who is doing this

00:17:57.500 --> 00:18:00.069
right out in the real world? Well. Let's look

00:18:00.069 --> 00:18:02.529
at Glenn Klein from Y Run Farms out in Pennsylvania.

00:18:02.869 --> 00:18:06.289
He has 1 ,200 cows. He started genomic testing

00:18:06.289 --> 00:18:09.490
back in 2011. An early adopter. That was back

00:18:09.490 --> 00:18:11.849
when genomics was still the Wild West. Very early.

00:18:12.190 --> 00:18:15.029
And he credits that testing with the massive

00:18:15.029 --> 00:18:18.049
difference in longevity he sees today. He said

00:18:18.049 --> 00:18:19.849
when they expanded and had to buy in outside

00:18:19.849 --> 00:18:22.490
cattle to fill the new barn, the difference between

00:18:22.490 --> 00:18:24.829
his home -bred genomic herd and the purchased

00:18:24.829 --> 00:18:28.269
cattle was night and day. How so? His cows lasted.

00:18:28.410 --> 00:18:30.970
The purchased ones didn't. The purchased ones

00:18:30.970 --> 00:18:33.490
melted under the pressure. His home -bred cows,

00:18:33.730 --> 00:18:35.730
which were bred for specific functional traits,

00:18:35.930 --> 00:18:38.670
handled the environment perfectly. That is the

00:18:38.670 --> 00:18:40.430
home court advantage of breeding for your own

00:18:40.430 --> 00:18:42.700
specific environment. But it's also about the

00:18:42.700 --> 00:18:45.480
criteria. If you buy generic cattle, you are

00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:48.099
buying someone else's problems or someone else's

00:18:48.099 --> 00:18:50.980
breeding goals. What about Eric Rodegett? I know

00:18:50.980 --> 00:18:54.180
that name. 3 ,500 cows in Wisconsin, right? Yes.

00:18:54.299 --> 00:18:57.140
The 2025 Innovative Dairy Farmer of the Year.

00:18:57.319 --> 00:18:59.579
He has a target that I think every listener should

00:18:59.579 --> 00:19:02.420
write down right now. He targets a 25 % replacement

00:19:02.420 --> 00:19:05.740
rate. 25%. The industry average is usually pushing

00:19:05.740 --> 00:19:08.440
35 or 40%. Some guys are at 45 % because they're

00:19:08.440 --> 00:19:10.779
using so much sexed semen. They have heifers

00:19:10.779 --> 00:19:13.700
coming out of their ears. Exactly. He is totally

00:19:13.700 --> 00:19:16.200
bucking the trend. He used to sell cull cows

00:19:16.200 --> 00:19:18.299
every single day. The truck was there every day.

00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:21.680
Lameness, pneumonia, mastitis, now. He sells

00:19:21.680 --> 00:19:23.980
cull cows one day a week. He literally says,

00:19:24.440 --> 00:19:26.839
They don't have to go. That is a massive mental

00:19:26.839 --> 00:19:29.720
shift. From I have to replace these broken cows

00:19:29.720 --> 00:19:32.359
to I have nowhere to put these incoming heifers

00:19:32.359 --> 00:19:34.660
because the old girl simply won't leave. That

00:19:34.660 --> 00:19:37.319
is a really good problem to have. It is the best

00:19:37.319 --> 00:19:39.339
problem to have. It allows you to be highly selective.

00:19:39.619 --> 00:19:41.539
You can sell your bottom end heifers for beef

00:19:41.539 --> 00:19:44.059
prices or as premium replacements to other guys

00:19:44.059 --> 00:19:46.880
and keep only the absolute cream of the crop

00:19:46.880 --> 00:19:49.799
for yourself. And then there is Kristen Metcalf

00:19:49.799 --> 00:19:52.720
with Glacier Edge Dairy. They milk jerseys. I

00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:55.200
love the jerseys. She uses data to rigorously

00:19:55.200 --> 00:19:58.259
filter traits. Her philosophy is simple. She

00:19:58.259 --> 00:20:00.319
asks, why not leave them as long as the data

00:20:00.319 --> 00:20:02.539
is there? It doesn't matter if they are pretty.

00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:03.920
It doesn't matter if they have a slightly high

00:20:03.920 --> 00:20:06.339
tail head or their udder isn't perfectly level.

00:20:06.660 --> 00:20:09.039
It matters if the data says they are profitable.

00:20:09.319 --> 00:20:11.240
It is removing the emotion from the equation.

00:20:11.980 --> 00:20:14.720
We get so emotional about our cows. Oh, I loved

00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:16.759
her mother, or she has such a pretty face, the

00:20:16.759 --> 00:20:18.799
spreadsheet does not care about her face. The

00:20:18.799 --> 00:20:20.660
spreadsheet only cares about the milk check.

00:20:20.799 --> 00:20:22.980
And we cannot ignore the Dutch in this conversation.

00:20:23.359 --> 00:20:25.440
Holland has been on this longevity kick for a

00:20:25.440 --> 00:20:27.940
very long time. They faced harsh environmental

00:20:27.940 --> 00:20:31.240
regulations way before we did, especially on

00:20:31.240 --> 00:20:33.099
nitrogen and phosphate limits. I had to be efficient.

00:20:33.500 --> 00:20:35.160
They essentially had a strict quota on manure.

00:20:35.420 --> 00:20:38.880
Right. CRV stats show that cold cows in Holland

00:20:38.880 --> 00:20:42.940
are now averaging 84 ,500 pounds of lifetime

00:20:42.940 --> 00:20:48.059
milk and 2 ,255 days of life. They breed specifically

00:20:48.059 --> 00:20:51.059
for longevity. They don't care about the height

00:20:51.059 --> 00:20:53.319
of the rear udder nearly as much as they care

00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:55.119
about whether that udder is still healthy and

00:20:55.119 --> 00:20:59.000
functioning at 10 years old. 84 ,000 pounds lifetime

00:20:59.000 --> 00:21:02.170
average. That is incredibly impressive. In the

00:21:02.170 --> 00:21:05.009
U .S., our average is probably closer to 60 ,000

00:21:05.009 --> 00:21:08.609
or 65 ,000 in a lot of herds. That is a massive

00:21:08.609 --> 00:21:11.809
efficiency gap. So where is this all going? Are

00:21:11.809 --> 00:21:13.930
we seeing a permanent divorce between the show

00:21:13.930 --> 00:21:17.029
ring and the commercial barn? The divorce papers

00:21:17.029 --> 00:21:19.430
are signed. The show ring and commercial profitability

00:21:19.430 --> 00:21:22.009
are officially separating. They're living in

00:21:22.009 --> 00:21:24.269
different houses. Just look at the index updates.

00:21:24.490 --> 00:21:28.049
The April 2025 net merit revision. What happened

00:21:28.049 --> 00:21:30.750
there? They put a negative 11 % penalty on body

00:21:30.750 --> 00:21:33.609
weight composite. Ouch. So if you breed a big

00:21:33.609 --> 00:21:36.789
cow, the index actively punishes you. Big time.

00:21:36.910 --> 00:21:39.809
It is a direct tax on size. And they increased

00:21:39.809 --> 00:21:43.789
feed save to nearly 18 % emphasis. The indexes

00:21:43.789 --> 00:21:45.650
are finally admitting that big cows are inefficient

00:21:45.650 --> 00:21:47.690
cows. They simply eat too much just for daily

00:21:47.690 --> 00:21:50.029
maintenance. It is basically the index saying

00:21:50.029 --> 00:21:52.369
we do not care how tall she is. We care how much

00:21:52.369 --> 00:21:54.990
she eats versus how much she milks. It is basic

00:21:54.990 --> 00:21:57.670
thermodynamics. A bigger engine burns more gas

00:21:57.670 --> 00:22:00.170
just sitting there idling. Exactly. And this

00:22:00.170 --> 00:22:01.829
brings us to the broader breeding philosophy

00:22:01.829 --> 00:22:04.130
debate. You have the ed boss approach, using

00:22:04.130 --> 00:22:06.849
proven sires, building deep cow families, taking

00:22:06.849 --> 00:22:09.730
it slow, versus the modern approach, which is

00:22:09.730 --> 00:22:13.589
genomics, speed, and turning generations as fast

00:22:13.589 --> 00:22:15.930
as mathematically possible. Fies won't touch

00:22:15.930 --> 00:22:18.150
a bull without a daughter proof. That is very

00:22:18.150 --> 00:22:20.589
old school. I mean, most of us are using genomics

00:22:20.589 --> 00:22:22.549
because we want that genetic gain right now.

00:22:22.569 --> 00:22:24.210
We don't want to wait five years to find out

00:22:24.210 --> 00:22:26.130
if a bull actually works in the parlor. And both

00:22:26.130 --> 00:22:28.289
approaches can work. That is the nuance here.

00:22:28.390 --> 00:22:31.630
You don't have to be a Luddite to breed functional

00:22:31.630 --> 00:22:34.930
cows. But the consensus, whether you are old

00:22:34.930 --> 00:22:37.450
school like Ed or new school, using predictive

00:22:37.450 --> 00:22:39.670
analytics, is that the traits you target must

00:22:39.670 --> 00:22:43.089
be functional. Heels and udders. Not stature

00:22:43.089 --> 00:22:45.329
and style. You can use genomics to find high

00:22:45.329 --> 00:22:47.769
heel depth. You can use genomics to find modern

00:22:47.769 --> 00:22:50.730
stature. So don't blame the cool. Blame the carpenter.

00:22:50.910 --> 00:22:55.089
Exactly. If you use Genomics to select for plus

00:22:55.089 --> 00:22:59.109
4 type and plus 3 stature, you are going to get

00:22:59.109 --> 00:23:02.470
a barn full of beautiful, frail cows that will

00:23:02.470 --> 00:23:05.799
bankrupt you. If you use Genomics to select for

00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:08.539
plus five productive life and moderate size,

00:23:08.799 --> 00:23:11.799
you will get a barn full of invisible cows that

00:23:11.799 --> 00:23:14.119
pay for your retirement. Invisible cows. I really

00:23:14.119 --> 00:23:15.880
like that. The ones you never have to treat.

00:23:15.960 --> 00:23:18.019
The ones you never notice until you look at the

00:23:18.019 --> 00:23:19.799
lifetime production list and see they're sitting

00:23:19.799 --> 00:23:22.359
at one hundred and fifty thousand pounds. Those

00:23:22.359 --> 00:23:24.400
are the true queens of the herd. All right. Let's

00:23:24.400 --> 00:23:27.119
get practical here because we have thrown a ton

00:23:27.119 --> 00:23:29.859
of data at people today. A farmer just finished

00:23:29.859 --> 00:23:33.339
milking. The radio is off and they are. driving

00:23:33.339 --> 00:23:36.059
to the feed store right now. They are thinking

00:23:36.059 --> 00:23:39.299
about that $3 ,000 heifer price and sweating

00:23:39.299 --> 00:23:41.480
a little bit. What are the three things they

00:23:41.480 --> 00:23:43.960
need to do right now to stop bleeding money on

00:23:43.960 --> 00:23:46.220
pretty cows? Okay, let's break it down into immediate

00:23:46.220 --> 00:23:49.000
action, medium -term strategy, and long -term

00:23:49.000 --> 00:23:50.619
positioning. Hit me with the immediate action.

00:23:51.000 --> 00:23:53.200
This week, I'm sitting at the farm desk tonight.

00:23:53.440 --> 00:23:57.039
Step one. Audit your utter composite. Pull your

00:23:57.039 --> 00:23:59.619
classification summary or your sire list. Stop

00:23:59.619 --> 00:24:02.140
looking at the overall UDC number. Ignore the

00:24:02.140 --> 00:24:04.160
big number. That is hard to do. It is literally

00:24:04.160 --> 00:24:07.400
bolded in the catalog. Ignore it. Treat it as

00:24:07.400 --> 00:24:09.559
a marketing number, not a genetic number. Break

00:24:09.559 --> 00:24:12.559
it down into the linear traits. Is the UDC high

00:24:12.559 --> 00:24:15.240
because of stature? Or is it high because of

00:24:15.240 --> 00:24:18.319
actual utter depth and foreattachment? So I need

00:24:18.319 --> 00:24:19.660
to look at the little bar graphs underneath.

00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:23.180
Yes. If the bull is plus three stature and plus

00:24:23.180 --> 00:24:26.559
2 .5 UDC. I should be worried. Treat that UDC

00:24:26.559 --> 00:24:30.059
with extreme suspicion. It is a mirage. You want

00:24:30.059 --> 00:24:33.079
the bull that is plus 0 .5 stature or even negative

00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:36.640
stature and plus two UDC. That is the real deal.

00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:39.359
That is a bull putting good functional udders

00:24:39.359 --> 00:24:41.500
on moderate functional frames. Okay, got it.

00:24:41.559 --> 00:24:44.779
Step two, medium term. My next semen order is

00:24:44.779 --> 00:24:47.130
coming up in about a month. Step two. Set hard

00:24:47.130 --> 00:24:49.329
floors. You need non -negotiable minimums on

00:24:49.329 --> 00:24:51.470
your semen order. Give me the numbers. What am

00:24:51.470 --> 00:24:53.529
I telling the AI rep when he pulls in the driveway?

00:24:53.769 --> 00:24:55.509
Productive life greater than three. Positive

00:24:55.509 --> 00:24:57.750
utter depth. Positive heel depth. Write those

00:24:57.750 --> 00:25:00.390
three down. Even if the bull is the hot new release.

00:25:00.529 --> 00:25:02.609
Even if he is the one everyone is talking about

00:25:02.609 --> 00:25:05.450
online. Especially if he is the hot new release.

00:25:05.809 --> 00:25:09.029
Do not wave these floors. The hype machine is

00:25:09.029 --> 00:25:11.769
designed to sell semen. It is not designed to

00:25:11.769 --> 00:25:14.000
lower your call rate. But what if I want to sell

00:25:14.000 --> 00:25:16.460
some show heifers? What if I just really enjoy

00:25:16.460 --> 00:25:18.779
the show ring on the weekends? That is completely

00:25:18.779 --> 00:25:21.400
fine. We aren't the fun police here. But cap

00:25:21.400 --> 00:25:23.940
your show type matings at 10 to 15 % of your

00:25:23.940 --> 00:25:26.640
herd. Treat it like a hobby budget, just like

00:25:26.640 --> 00:25:28.599
you have a budget for your boat or your hunting

00:25:28.599 --> 00:25:31.380
trip. The rest of the herd needs to be working

00:25:31.380 --> 00:25:34.339
girls. They pay the bills so the show cows can

00:25:34.339 --> 00:25:36.920
eat. I like that a lot. Hobby budget. Keep the

00:25:36.920 --> 00:25:38.599
gambling money separate from the grocery money.

00:25:38.940 --> 00:25:41.269
Okay, what about long term? One to two years

00:25:41.269 --> 00:25:44.009
out. Step three is the lactation audit. Track

00:25:44.009 --> 00:25:46.269
your herd's average lactation number. If you

00:25:46.269 --> 00:25:48.910
were at 2 .5 right now, set a strict goal to

00:25:48.910 --> 00:25:51.230
get to three. Move the needle by half a lactation.

00:25:51.529 --> 00:25:54.329
Exactly. Calculate the savings in replacement

00:25:54.329 --> 00:25:56.710
rearing. If you haven't moved that number in

00:25:56.710 --> 00:25:59.069
12 months, your breeding criteria are still too

00:25:59.069 --> 00:26:01.589
focused on pretty. You are still selecting for

00:26:01.589 --> 00:26:04.130
traits that are pushing cows out the door prematurely.

00:26:04.150 --> 00:26:06.789
It is basically a scorecard for your entire breeding

00:26:06.789 --> 00:26:09.150
program. If the cows aren't getting older, the

00:26:09.150 --> 00:26:11.069
breeding isn't getting better. Simple as that.

00:26:11.609 --> 00:26:13.890
Longevity is the ultimate proof of functionality.

00:26:14.230 --> 00:26:16.650
If they work, they stay. If they don't, they

00:26:16.650 --> 00:26:18.819
leave. Well, before we wrap up, I want to leave

00:26:18.819 --> 00:26:21.640
you with one final provocative thought to chew

00:26:21.640 --> 00:26:24.839
on. We talked about feed efficiency and indexes,

00:26:24.839 --> 00:26:27.920
but think about the supply chain. What happens

00:26:27.920 --> 00:26:30.940
when the packing plants start actively panelizing

00:26:30.940 --> 00:26:33.559
us for these massive cows because their carcasses

00:26:33.559 --> 00:26:36.579
literally don't fit on the rail hooks? We are

00:26:36.579 --> 00:26:38.900
already hearing whispers of rail height limits

00:26:38.900 --> 00:26:41.859
becoming a real issue in slaughterhouses. If

00:26:41.859 --> 00:26:44.200
the packers start docking the price of your cull

00:26:44.200 --> 00:26:46.539
cows because their frames are too huge, that

00:26:46.539 --> 00:26:48.759
vanity breeding is going to hit your wallet a

00:26:48.759 --> 00:26:50.799
second time on the way out the door. Just something

00:26:50.799 --> 00:26:53.420
to mull over while you evaluate your next sire

00:26:53.420 --> 00:26:55.920
lineup. That is a chilling thought, but a very

00:26:55.920 --> 00:26:59.140
real possibility. Well, this has been another

00:26:59.140 --> 00:27:01.500
deep dive from the Bullvine podcast. We've covered

00:27:01.500 --> 00:27:04.319
a lot, but the message is clear. The market has

00:27:04.319 --> 00:27:06.740
changed, and our cows need to change with it.

00:27:06.880 --> 00:27:08.700
If you are still breeding for tall cows after

00:27:08.700 --> 00:27:10.559
listening to this, do not call me when the feed

00:27:10.559 --> 00:27:12.559
bill comes due. For more straight -talking industry

00:27:12.559 --> 00:27:16.759
analysis, head over to www .thebullvine .com.

00:27:17.480 --> 00:27:19.890
Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We

00:27:19.890 --> 00:27:22.369
are out with new deep dives every single day

00:27:22.369 --> 00:27:24.609
and upcoming topics will be tackling the truth

00:27:24.609 --> 00:27:27.730
about robotic milking data. Stop chasing ribbons

00:27:27.730 --> 00:27:29.930
and start chasing profit. See you next time.
