Breaking free from the chains of the past Where
truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law
waiting on some printed page We're charting new
ground in the digital age From genomic codes
to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold
them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight
we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast.
This is the show where we cut through the dairy
industry noise to get you the insights that actually
matter for your operation. That's right, because
if you're tuning in today, you aren't looking
for fluff. You aren't looking for someone to
tell you everything is sunny when you can, well,
when you can literally see the storm clouds gathering
over the cornfield yourself. Exactly. We're here
to look at the hard numbers. The policy shifts.
The actual reality of the market. The boots on
the ground perspective. Always. We're here to
talk about what keeps the lights on in the barn,
what keeps the parlor running, and most importantly,
what keeps the banker off your back. And today,
we are diving deep into a feature piece that
is, honestly, is probably the most important
thing you're going to read, or in this case,
listen to, all year. It's a heavy one. It really
is a heavy one, and we're going to give it the
time it deserves. The topic of this deep dive
is... The real face -off. U .S. versus Canada
dairy survival guide. Now, I know what everyone
is thinking about right now. It's Saturday, February
21st, 2026. Oh, absolutely. Everyone is completely
glued to the TV. The Olympics are on. It's Canada
versus the USA. The men's hockey gold medal game.
The ultimate rivalry. It is the classic rivalry.
It's national pride. It's bragging rights. It's...
Fast, physical, emotional. Right. But here's
the thing. While everyone is watching that puck
drop over in Milan, wondering if we're going
to see a repeat of those legendary face -offs.
A real face -off. Yes. The real face -off is
happening on your balance sheet. And unlike the
game in Milan, this one doesn't just end after
60 minutes. No, it doesn't. The tagline from
our source material actually really struck me.
It said, when the gold medals are boxed away,
your balance sheet is still on the ice. Oof.
Yeah, that is a chilling thought. It gives me
goosebumps, honestly, because it's true. I mean,
we get so distracted by the spectacle. The blags,
the jerseys. The anthems, right. But the economic
reality doesn't care who wins the gold. Not all.
The cows still need to be milked at 4 a .m. tomorrow,
regardless of who stands on that podium. So let's
set the context here. Why does this deep dive
matter right now? Yeah. Aside from the Olympic
backdrop, we are staring down the barrel of the
USMCA review. The big one. That is coming up
in July 2026. That is just a few months away.
It's literally right around the corner. July
1st, 2026, the sunset review and the steaks.
I mean, the stakes could not be higher. No, they
couldn't. We aren't just talking about a minor
adjustment to trade policy here. We are talking
about the fundamental rules of the game for dairy
on this entire continent. Right. The U .S., Canada
and Mexico have to sit down and decide if this
agreement works or if they're just going to rip
it up. And the backdrop for this political showdown.
isn't a healthy, thriving industry on either
side of the border. Not even close. That is the
uncomfortable truth we really need to unpack
today. Let's look at the data from the last year,
2024 going into 2025. Let's hear it. The U .S.
lost 1 ,434 herds in 2024 alone. Let that sink
in for a second. 1 ,434 families who decided
or were forced to call it quits. That's a 5 %
decline in a single year. It's massive. That
isn't just consolidation. That is an evacuation.
It really is. And on the flip side, looking at
Canada, we have a massive signal of distress
from the dairy farmers of Ontario, the DFO. Right.
They just canceled their February 2026 quota
exchange entirely. Which is unprecedented. You
have a system designed to manage supply and demand,
and the main mechanism for moving quota just...
It just froze. Completely froze. The numbers
there are staggering. You had 1 ,915 buyers trying
to get quota. And how many sellers? 12. 12. 12
sellers. Absurd. Almost 2 ,000 people wanting
to buy in or expand and only 12 people willing
to get out or sell off a piece. And the price
is capped at $24 ,000 Canadian dollars per kilogram.
Wow. That isn't a functioning market. That's
a log jam. It's a dam about to burst. So we have
these two very different systems, both showing
massive undeniable signs of stress. And that's
what we're here to analyze. It's not just about
trade policy. It's about survival. For the Canadians
listening, this is about equity. It's about your
debt ratios. It's about the value of that paper
you're holding that says you are actually allowed
to milk cows. Right. For the Americans, it's
about cash flow. It's about burn rates. It's
about how long you can tread water when the price
drops below your break -even. The source calls
it the uncomfortable truth. Neither system is
as healthy as the politicians like to claim on
TV. One is described as a capital trap, and the
other is described as a casino. That is a brilliant
way to put it. And if you're a farmer, you are
living in one of those two realities right now.
You're either trapped by the cost of your assets,
unable to pivot because your money is tied up
in permission slips, or you're gambling every
single day on the spot market, just hoping the
house doesn't win this time. Let's get into the
deep dive discussion. We're going to break this
down by looking at two specific profiles, avatars
really, that represent the crisis in each country.
I think this helps ground the numbers in reality.
Absolutely. It's so easy to gloss over 1 ,400
herds or $24 ,000 a kilo. But when you look at
the individual farmer, the person actually putting
the cups on it hits home. So first, let's meet
Jean -Pierre in Quebec. Okay, Jean -Pierre. He
is the classic modern Canadian dairyman. He represents
that demographic we see all over Quebec and eastern
Ontario. He has 75 cows. He's put in a robot,
so he's got the technology. He's efficient in
terms of labor. Okay, this is good so far. But
here's the kicker. He has $4 million Canadian
dollars in debt. Four million on 75 cows. Four
million. And most of that debt isn't for the
land or the barn or even that shiny new robot.
It's for the quota. He literally bought the right
to produce. Exactly. He bought quota to bring
his son into the business. He leveraged the farm
to secure the next generation. So he has a milk
check that is predictable. Right. Because of
the system. He knows roughly what he's going
to get paid next month because the formula tells
him. But the bank takes almost all of it just
to service that massive debt. So he is asset
rich, but cash poor. Incredibly asset rich on
paper. But his problem is that he's bought an
asset, the quota that is based entirely on a
political promise. That is the fear factor for
Jean -Pierre. It's what keeps him up at night.
His $4 million debt is real. The bank expects
real money. They don't take political goodwill
as a mortgage payment. No, they don't. But the
asset backing it, that $3 million worth of quota,
isn't concrete. It isn't genetics. It isn't land
you can plant corn on. Right. It is a policy.
And policies can change with the stroke of a
pen. Now let's look at his counterpart in Wisconsin.
Let's call him Mark. Mark is a different beast
entirely. He is milking 1 ,200 cows. He is an
absolute efficiency machine. Scaled way up. Scaled
up. He's done everything the university extension
economists told him to do for the last 20 years.
Drive down costs, increase volume, scale, scale,
scale. But Mark has a problem too. A huge problem.
He just lost a processor contract because the
plant switched to dedicated suppliers from even
larger farms. We're talking the 5 ,000, 10 ,000
cow dairies. So now Mark is selling on the spot
market. And the spot market is brutal. It's the
wild west. He's burning equity. He's working
14 -hour days, managing a massive crew, running
a complex biological operation, dealing with
environmental regs. And he's losing money on
every hundredweight that leaves the driveway.
Every single one. So Jean -Pierre fears the politician
who might change the rules. Mark fears the market
that might drop the price. But here is the thing
that connects them. They both fear the banker.
That is the common thread right there. It doesn't
matter if you're in Quebec or Wisconsin. When
the numbers don't add up, the banker is the one
making the phone call. And believe me, the banker
is looking at the same spreadsheets we are. Let's
talk about the operational impact of these different
stresses. Jean -Pierre has what looks like stability,
right? On the surface, yes. He sleeps at night
knowing the milk truck is coming and the price
is fixed. But he wakes up in a cold sweat thinking
about interest rates and trade deals because
he has absolutely no wiggle room. His debt service
is so high that a small change in his asset value,
say a concession in the USMCA, puts him underwater
immediately. He's walking a tightrope over a
canyon. And Mark. Mark has freedom. The American
dream, right? No caps on production. If he wants
to milk another hundred cows, he just buys them.
Right. But that freedom includes the freedom
to go broke. He has the freedom to burn through
his life savings in six months of bad prices.
It really is a tale of two different kinds of
stress. One is a slow, crushing weight of capital
cost. The other is a high -speed, volatile roller
coaster. And neither one feels particularly golden
when you're in the middle of it. It's stress
either way. That leads us perfectly into our
second segment, the industry reality check. Yeah.
We need to bust some myths here. Oh, I love busting
myths. Let's do it. Let's start with the U .S.
myth. You hear it all the time from the top.
The golden age of dairy. Right. Agriculture Secretary
Brooke Rawlins was talking about this just recently.
Quotes like, exports are up, demand is up, it's
a golden age. Look, I respect the optimism, but
you have to look at who it is actually golden
for. The data tells a very different story for
the producer. We mentioned the 1 ,434 herds lost
in 2024. That's a 5 % decline nationally. But
look at where those losses are happening. Wisconsin
alone lost 400 herds. That is the heartland.
That is America's dairy land. Losing 400 herds
in a year is a catastrophe for those communities.
It's not just the farms. It's the vet clinics,
the feed mills, the local schools, the tire shops.
When you lose that many businesses, the rural
fabric just tears. And Rabobank is predicting
it's going to get worse. They are projecting
2 ,800 closures for 2025. Wow. That would be
a 7 % to 9 % exit rate. Think about that. If
any other industry, auto manufacturing, tech,
retail, was losing nearly 10 % of its businesses
in a single year, there would be national emergency
hearings. There would be bailouts. Absolutely.
But in dairy, we just call it consolidation.
We use the sterile word to describe families
losing their legacy. But the cows aren't leaving,
are they? No, and that's the paradox. The cows
are just moving. The production is actually up.
The average herd size is climbing. It's at 377
cows nationally now. So the milk is still flowing.
The engine doesn't have a brake pedal. We keep
producing more milk with fewer farms. The efficiency
is incredible, but the human cost is incredibly
high. So the golden age is really just a golden
age for the survivors who can scale fast enough.
Exactly. It's a survivor's game. It's basically
the Hunger Games with Holsteins. Now let's look
at the Canadian myth. The myth is that supply
management is this perfect, impenetrable safety
net. It is a safety net, sure, and it has served
Canada well for 50 years. But it's a safety net
that is becoming incredibly expensive to stand
on. Let's go back to that DFO exchange crisis.
February 2026, the exchange was canceled. Why
is that such a massive red flag? Because it shows
the system is broken at the entry and exit points.
You have nearly 2 ,000 people wanting to buy.
That shows there is optimism or at least a desperate
need to scale just to cover fixed costs. Right.
But only 12 people want to sell. Why aren't people
selling? If the price is $24 ,000 a kilo, which
is a massive amount of money, why not cash out?
A few reasons. One, where else do you put your
money that gives you that kind of return? Two,
there is a massive tax implication. But three,
and this is the scary part, I think a lot of
farmers are holding on waiting to see what happens
with the trade deal. Ah, waiting for a buyout.
Right. They don't want to sell if there is a
government buyout coming. Or... They're just
frozen by indecision. They're completely paralyzed.
Our source calls it a capital trap with a waiting
list. That is the perfect description. You can't
get in because there is no quota available and
you can't really get out easily without triggering
massive tax events or total lifestyle changes.
And meanwhile, the exit rates in Canada are creeping
up too. About 2 .6 % of farms are dropping out
annually. Dalhousie University has been warning
about this. They said half of Canada's farms
could be gone by 2030 without reform. And that
warning was just reiterated in May 2025. The
trend line is so clear. Supply management slows
the bleeding, but it does not stop the wound.
The smaller farms are still disappearing, just
at a slower rate than in the U .S. It seems like
both systems are bleeding the middle. That is
exactly it. If you are small and niche doing
on -farm processing, maybe you survive. If you
are massive and efficient, maybe you survive.
But the traditional family farm. The backbone
of the industry. Yeah. It is endangered on both
sides of the border. Let's move to segment three.
We told you to grab a pencil earlier. Now we're
going to do the barn math. We're going to stress
test these operations. This is where the rubber
meets the road or where the manure hits the spreader,
depending on how your day is going. Let's start
with the Canadian math. Let's look at Jean -Pierre's
balance sheet. Okay. Visualize this. Jean -Pierre
has a 100 cow equivalent operation under the
current rules with the cap at $24 ,000 per kilo.
His quota, just the paper right to produce milk,
is worth about three million Canadian dollars.
It is a huge asset. It is his biggest asset.
It dwarfs the value of his cows and maybe even
his land. It is collateral for absolutely everything.
Right. His operating line of credit, his land
loan, the robot loan, maybe even his parents'
retirement payout. It is all secured against
that quota. Now let's model a scenario. The USMCA
review happens in July. Canada makes a concession.
Quota value drops by 15%. Which is a conservative
estimate if things go sideways during negotiations.
So 15 % drop. His quota value goes from $3 million
to $2 .5 million. That is a $450 ,000 loss. On
paper, yes. But here is the massive problem.
His debt doesn't change. It never does. He still
owes the bank exactly what he owed yesterday.
But his equity, the value of his business that
he actually owns, just dropped by nearly half
a million dollars. So his debt to equity ratio
takes a massive hit. It jumps from a manageable
55 % to over 60%. And 60 .4 % is the specific
number our source crunched. That crosses the
comfort threshold for Farm Credit Canada and
most major lenders. So it's not just a paper
loss. it triggers a very real banking problem.
Correct. When you cross that threshold, the banker
calls. They say, Jean -Pierre, you are now considered
high risk. We need to restructure. We need more
collateral. Or we need to increase your interest
rate. It starts a death spiral. If your interest
rate goes up 2%, Your cash flow evaporates, and
suddenly you can't pay the basic bills. And debt
service is already his biggest cost. Exactly.
And you can't hedge against this. There is no
futures market for political promises. You can't
buy insurance that pays out if the prime minister
caves on a trade deal. You are completely exposed
to the whims of negotiators in a closed room.
Now let's switch to the U .S. math. Let's look
at Mark. Okay, Mark has 300 cows. Let's say the
milk price drops to $16 .50. And his break -even
is $20. Right. And $20 is a pretty efficient
break -even these days with feed costs where
they are. So he is losing $3 .50 on every single
hundredweight of milk he produces. Let's do the
multiplication on that. 300 cows doing about
2 ,100 weight a month. That is... 6 ,375 hundredweight
of milk hitting the tank every single month.
You multiply that by a $3 .50 loss. That is over
$22 ,000. $22 ,313 leaving his bank account every
single month. Wow. That is cash drain. That is
money that should be going to pay down principal
or buy new tires. And instead, it's just covering
the hole. But what about the safety net? What
about dairy margin coverage, DMC? DMC is a great
program, don't get me wrong. But it has caps.
Tier 1 coverage caps at 5 million pounds of production
history. For a herd of Mark's size, that only
covers about 65 % of his milk. So he gets a check
for some of it. He gets help on the first 4 ,000
hundredweight or so. That stops the bleeding
a bit. But the remaining 2 ,200 hundredweight,
that is fully exposed to the market. He is totally
naked on that volume. So even with the safety
net working perfectly, he is still losing money.
He is still losing over $7 ,700 a month. In six
months, he has burned through over $133 ,000
in equity. That's a staggering amount of money.
That is real cash gone. That's a tractor. That's
a kid's college tuition. Just gone. And if he
doesn't have $133 ,000 in liquid cash sitting
around in a checking account. Then he is borrowing
it. He is eating into his land equity. And eventually
the lender looks at his debt service coverage
ratio, his DSCR. Right. If that falls below 1
.0, meaning he isn't generating enough cash to
pay his daily debts, the conversation shifts
from renewal to... Exit planning. Exit planning.
That is a very polite way of saying foreclosure
or forced sale. It is. It's the bank telling
you to sell the cows before they have to send
trailers to come take them. And the source makes
a really chilling point here. If you haven't
run these numbers, your lender already have.
That is the takeaway right there. The bank knows
your vulnerability better than you do sometimes.
And that is exactly why we are doing this deep
dive. You need to know these numbers before they
make the call. You need to walk into that office
with a plan, not a prayer. This financial pressure
doesn't just stay in the barn office, though.
It seeps into the house. It affects the family.
Let's talk about segment four, the case studies
and the human cost. Yeah, we talk about cows
and quotas, but we are really talking about people
here. We are talking about families who have
been on this land for generations. There's a
study by Dr. Andrea Jones -Bitton regarding mental
health and agriculture. The stats are heavy.
They are heartbreaking. 45 % of Canadian farmers
reported high stress. 57 % met the criteria for
anxiety. 35 % for depression. And this was before
the latest round of USMCA anxiety. This was the
baseline. And these numbers are likely very similar
in the US. Absolutely. The stress just comes
from different places. It manifests differently.
But the human toll is exactly the same. Right.
Jean -Pierre's stress is capital weighted. He
is stressed about an asset he can't control because
it is tied completely to politics. He feels helpless
because... A bureaucrat in Ottawa or Washington
holds his fate. He feels like a pawn in a bigger
game. He can be the best farmer in the world,
have the best somatic cell count, the highest
components, and he can still be wiped out by
a signature on a treaty he never even saw. And
Mark's stress is market -weighted. Mark is watching
the ticker. He is watching the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange. He is stressed because the global market
doesn't care about his mortgage. No, it doesn't.
He is fighting forces, whether in New Zealand
Let's look at the winner table from the source.
It compares the two systems across different
categories. Who wins on income stability? Canada
wins that one, hands down. The check is stable,
but... And there is a big asterisk here that
income is just servicing the debt you took on
to buy the quota. Right. Doesn't necessarily
build wealth. It services the entry fee. It's
like having a high salary, but a massive, massive
mortgage. You look rich, but you're actually
cash strapped. What about growth potential? The
U .S. wins. The sky is the limit. If you want
to milk 10 ,000 cows, you can. Nobody stops you.
You can build an absolute kingdom. But the fall
is also limitless. There is no floor. Succession.
This is a big one for family farms. Huge. Canada
prides itself on having 98 % family farms. It's
part of the national identity up there. But here
is the dirty secret. 88 % of them lack a formal
succession plan. 88 % why? Because the capital
cost is too high. How does a young person buy
out their parents when the quota alone is worth
$3 or $4 million? The math just doesn't work
for the next generation. So the Barons have to
act as the bank or they simply can't retire.
Or they sell the quota and the cows leave the
farm. They cash out. The mega dairy neighbor
buys the quota and the family barn goes empty.
That's how we lose the family farm. Not to bankruptcy,
but to the pure inability to transfer the asset.
And in the U .S. There is no quota to buy, so
entry is much cheaper. You can buy cows and start
milking tomorrow. But you are entering a burning
building sometimes. You are entering a market
that eats 5 % to 9 % of its participants every
single year. It's easier to start. but much,
much harder to stay. So who wins on mid -size
survival? Neither. That's the hard truth. Canada
caps you so you can't grow your way out of inefficiency
easily. The U .S. crushes you with scale. Both
systems are just bleeding the middle -class farmer.
It is a crisis of the middle. It's a sobering
assessment. The Canadian system is great for
preserving a farm that already exists and is
fully paid off. The U .S. system is great for
the gambler who wants to build an empire. But
neither is great for the average family trying
to pass the torch. And that should really worry
all of us. Let's pivot to the future. Segment
five, the USMCA 2026 review. This is the freight
train coming down the tracks. The big date, July
1st, 2026. Mark it on your calendar in bright
red ink. The sunset review. What exactly is happening
then? Basically, the three countries, the US,
Canada, and Mexico, sit down and decide if they
want to extend the agreement for another 16 years.
But it is not a rubber stamp. It is a hardcore
negotiation. and everything is on the table.
And the political pressure in the U .S. is really
ramping up right now. Huge pressure. You have
bipartisan support, Republicans and Democrats
pushing aggressively for access to the Canadian
dairy market. Representative Jim Costa has been
leading the charge. They formed a coalition,
right? Yeah, the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA.
They are organized, they are well -funded, and
they have a very clear target, Canada's supply
management. And their main complaint is about
TRQs. Tariff rate quotas. Right. The U .S. says
we negotiated access to sell dairy in Canada
in the last deal. Canada says, sure, here are
the permits. But Canada gave those permits, the
TRQs, mostly to Canadian processors. Very companies
that have absolute no incentive to import American
milk. Exactly. Why would a Canadian cheesemaker
import American cheese that directly competes
with their own product? They just sit on the
permits. So the fill rates. The amount of product
actually crossing the border are incredibly low,
only about 42 % filled. So the U .S. feels cheated?
They feel like Canada is playing games with the
implementation. They feel like they won the negotiation
but lost the execution. And honestly, looking
at the trade data, U .S. exports to Canada actually
rose 11 % in 2025. So product is moving. They
hit $1 .2 billion. So stuff is moving. But the
U .S. wants more. And on the Canadian side, the
government... definitely knows this is a vulnerability.
They do. And how do we know they know? Because
they keep writing massive checks. The compensation
payments. Canada has paid out nearly $3 billion.
That's billion with a B in compensation to dairy
farmers for previous trade deals like CETA with
Europe and CPTPP, the Pacific deal. That is an
admission, isn't it? It is a flat out confession.
It is the government saying, we know we hurt
you. We know we sold a piece of your market to
get a deal on cars or tech. Here is some hush
money. Right. The question for 2026 isn't if
there will be damage. It is how much damage.
And will the compensation check clear before
the bank calls? It is the compensation trap.
You lose market share, you get a check. But you
lose the market share forever. The check is a
one -time thing or spread over a few years. And
that check doesn't fix your balance sheet permanently.
It just... patches the hole for a little while.
It's like putting duct tape on a leaking pipe.
Eventually, the pressure bursts right through.
Let's get into some contrarian takes. We like
to challenge the narrative here. We don't just
parrot what the lobby groups say. Let's stir
the pot a little. I'll take the U .S. side. U
.S. farmers seem convinced that opening the Canadian
market is the answer to their oversupply problems.
The thought is, if we could just sell to Canada,
prices would instantly go up. I hear that at
every diner in Wisconsin. Those Canadians are
blocking our milk. But let's look at the math.
Canada is the size of California, roughly, in
terms of population. Even if the U .S. got everything
they wanted, total open borders, zero tariffs,
the Canadian market is tiny compared to U .S.
production. It's a drop in the bucket. U .S.
production is over 225 billion pounds. Accessing
3 .6 % of the Canadian market is nothing. It's
a rounding error. It wouldn't move the Class
3 milk price by more than a few pennies. So your
take is access to Canada is a bonus, not a business
plan. Exactly. Stop waiting for Canada to save
you. It will not fix the fundamental oversupply
issue in the U .S. I like it. It's harsh, but
it's totally true. My contrarian take for the
Canadians, stop believing that quota value is
permanent. But it's been $24 ,000 for a long
time. It feels like bedrock to them. It has,
but it's not real estate. It's not gold. It is
a policy construct. It exists only because a
piece of legislation says it exists. If that
legislation changes, the value evaporates. It's
collateralizing a loan with a political promise.
And you cannot hedge against a political promise
expiring. We saw it in Australia. We saw it in
Europe with quotas ending. It can happen. And
if you are betting the farm literally that I
won't, that is a very risky bet. You are trusting
politicians to protect your wealth. When has
that ever been a sure thing? OK, we have scared
everyone sufficiently. Let's try to be helpful.
Fair enough. We can't just leave them in the
dark. We pride ourselves on actionable insights.
So picture this. A farmer is driving to the feed
store right now. They just listen to this. Their
knuckles are white on the steering wheel. What
are the three things they need to do? Let's break
it down by country. Start with the Canadian farmer,
the Jean -Pierre playbook. Okay, Jean -Pierre,
listen up. First, the immediate time frame, the
next 30 days. Go to the Farm Credit Canada website.
They have a solvency calculator. Run three scenarios.
Scenario A, current quota value. Scenario B,
minus 10%. Scenario C, minus 20%. And if they
don't like what they see. If that minus 20 %
scenario pushes your debt to equity ratio over
0 .60, you need a contingency plan today, not
in July. Today, call your accountant. Call your
lender proactively. That is the stress test.
What about the medium term? Medium term. The
next 90 days. Look at your asset mix. If quota
makes up more than 50 % of your total assets,
you are dangerously concentrated. You are overexposed
to one risk factor. Start shifting equity. How
do they do that? Can you pay down quoted debt
aggressively? Can you invest in land or equipment?
Things that have tangible value outside of the
supply management system. I know diversification
capital computes with paying down debt, but concentration
risk is the killer here. You need assets that
have value even if the system changes. And long
term. Long term. The next 365 days, get involved.
Do not rely on the Dairy Farmers of Canada or
your provincial board to just handle it behind
closed doors. The 2023 panel victory was great,
but it might have created complacency. The 2026
review is a totally different animal. So they
need to speak up. Show up to the meetings. Make
sure your voice is heard about what kind of compensation
or transition plan you actually need. If you're
silent, you get what you get. Okay, now for the
U .S. Farmer. The Mark Playbook. All right, Mark.
Immediate time frame, 30 days. Enroll in DMC.
The deadline is February 26th. I don't care if
you think it won't pay out. I don't care if you
hate the paperwork. Just do it. The production
history reset has changed the math completely.
For herds under 350 cows, it is an absolute no
-brainer. It is cheap insurance. Do it. It sets
the floor under your revenue. Medium term. Medium
term. 90 days out. Check your DSCR, that debt
service coverage ratio we talked about. If it
is below 1 .15, meaning you have just barely
enough cash to cover debt plus a 15 % buffer
and your cost of production is over $20. You
are walking on thin ice. Very thin ice. You are
one price dip away from the bank taking the keys.
You need to know that number. If it's low, talk
to the bank now. Restructure debt while you still
have cash flow, not when you are bouncing checks.
Extend the amortization if you have to. Preserve
cash. And long -term. Long -term. Next year,
stop dreaming about Canada. Focus on what you
control. efficiency, components, milk quality.
The controllables. Yes. Processors are paying
for protein and butterfat. Invest in genetics
that give you that. Invest in technology that
lowers your labor cost. That is your only real
defense against the spot market. Be the low -cost
producer of the highest value milk. That's the
only way to win in a commodity market. That is
incredibly solid advice. Control the controllables.
It's the only way to survive. Everything else
is just noise. We are coming to the end of our
deep dive. I want to circle back to the opening
image. The hockey game. The game. It's exciting.
I'll definitely be watching it. But the source
ends with a really powerful thought for us to
mull over. The jerseys come off tomorrow. The
medals get boxed. The hashtags fade. But on Monday
morning at 4 .30 a .m., Jean -Pierre is still
walking into that barn in Quebec. He is still
servicing $4 million in debt. And Mark is still
milking 1 ,200 cows in Wisconsin, watching his
equity burn. The crowd is gone, but the work
remains. The real win isn't a medal. No, the
real win is ensuring that a family is still there
to drop the puck for the next generation. It's
about staying in the game. It's about resilience.
That is the ultimate goal, keeping the legacy
alive. Start with your balance sheet. Don't wait
for the politicians to fix it. They won't. You
have to fix it. Powerful words. Well, that wraps
up this deep dive into the Canada -U .S. dairy
face -off. We hope this gave you some clarity,
even if the news is a bit tough to swallow. Better
to swallow tough news now than choke on it later.
Exactly. This has been another Bullvine podcast.
For more straight -talking industry analysis,
head to www .thebullvine .com. Subscribe wherever
you get podcasts. We're out with new episodes
every day. And hey, enjoy the hockey game, but
keep one eye on that spreadsheet. Thanks for
listening. Stay safe out there.