Breaking free from the chains of the past Where
truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law
waiting on some printed page We're charting new
ground in the digital age From genomic codes
to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold
them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight
we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast,
where we cut through dairy industry noise to
get you the insights that actually matter for
your operation. And today we're diving deep into
a feature piece about a topic with a pretty wild
headline. It's an article covering what they
call the 1 ,113 kilogram question. Yeah, it's
quite the hook. When I first saw that number,
I honestly thought it was a typo. Right. It sounds
like total clickbait, frankly. I mean, 1 ,113
kilograms. That is roughly, what, 2 ,450 pounds
of milk? Almost exactly, yeah. And the claim
in this deep dive is that this massive amount
of milk in the first lactation hinges on, wait
for it, calf starter. Calf starter. Which is
just, I mean, come on, 2 ,500 pounds of milk
from just feeding a different calf starter. I
read that and immediately put my skeptic hat
on. You should. We both should. That's what we
do here. Okay. But here's the thing. The number
is actually real. It's not marketing fluff. It
is not marketing fluff. It comes directly from
Cornell University research. But the real story
here and what we're going to unpack today isn't
just about dumping more grain in a bucket. Right,
because it's never that simple. Exactly. It is
a much more nuanced conversation about consistency,
about biology, and what we're actually feeding
those rumen bugs in the very first 60 days of
life. So we are essentially talking about whether
the... The good enough approach is actually costing
us thousands of pounds of milk down the road.
Precisely. And for decades, I feel like the industry
view on calf starter has been pretty utilitarian.
Oh, 100%. It's viewed as a bridge. It's just
necessary but unremarkable. You know, you call
the mill, you ask for the 18 or 20 % starter,
you ask what the price is, and if it meets the
tag minimums, you just buy it. You don't really
think about it as a strategic lever. No, you
really don't. You're just trying to get them
off milk replacer without them going backward.
You're looking at the input cost for that specific
month. But that mindset is shifting. Producers
are realizing that early nutrition isn't just
about keeping the calf alive or hitting a weaning
weight. It's about, and I love this analogy from
the piece, it's about laying concrete for the
cow's future structure. Laying concrete. I like
that visual. Because if you pour a bad foundation,
it honestly doesn't matter how nice the framing
is later on. The house is going to crack. Exactly.
The stakes are massive here. Let's go back to
that big number because we need to set the table
for why you should even care about this. Let's
do it. The core statistic from the research out
of Cornell found that one single kilogram of
pre -weaning average daily gain, just one extra
kilo of ADG, correlates to 1 ,113 kilograms of
additional milk in the very first lactation.
Okay, let me play the practical farmer for a
second because I'm looking at my feed bill. You
are telling me that if I get my calves to grow
just a little bit faster right now, I get 2 ,500
pounds of free milk two years from now. Well,
it's not free. And it's definitely not magic.
It is straight biology. And it is not just one
study anymore. The piece... highlights a 2025
meta -analysis. They looked at 18 different studies
and confirmed this relationship completely holds
up. 18 studies. So this is a highly repeatable
result. Highly repeatable. And the Cornell data
tracks this even further, showing that the benefits
persist into the second and third lactations.
It carries over that far. Yes. We are talking
about nearly 1 ,300 kilograms of extra milk.
across three lactations for every single kilo
of pre -weaning game. So the stakes are essentially
lifetime production versus saving a few bucks
on a bag of feed today. That is the exact trade
-off. But this is where the friction comes in,
because there is a massive battle of philosophies
happening at the feed mill. The least cost formulation
versus the fixed formulation. Yes, the least
cost trap. Yeah. Let's dig into our first segment
here and really identify the problem. I think
this is where we need to unpack the controversy.
Because most farmers, myself included, we are
trained to look at the feed tag. If the tag says
20 % protein and 4 % fat and the price works
for my budget, I assume the product is consistent.
I assume bag A is exactly the same as bag B.
And that right there is the dangerous assumption.
How so? Because while the nutrient profile on
the tag might look exactly the same from month
to month, the actual ingredients used to hit
those numbers might be changing every single
time the commodity markets shift. OK, so one
week the mill is using soybean meal to hit that
20 percent. And then the next week soy gets expensive.
So they swap in canola meal. Exactly. Maybe they
throw in some distillers grains if the price
drops on a local rail car. Spot on. And that
is where the 1 ,113 kilogram question really
lives. It's not just about the protein level.
It's about the consistency of the ingredients
themselves. Because the industry standard of
chasing the cheapest commodity to meet a protein
target might actually be secretly sabotaging
the room in development. It is. But we have to
be fair here. The research on feed consistency
specifically is framed as subjective in the source
material, right? Right. It's not definitive proof.
It's not a 10 ,000 cow randomized trial. No,
it's not. But we have incredible biological data
on how the rumen works, and we have producer
case studies that are just really hard to ignore.
Okay, so walk me through the biology then. Why
do my cows care if the protein comes from soy
or canola as long as they get the protein? It
all comes down to the microbiome. We talk all
the time about feeding the calf, but we are really
feeding the bugs and the rumen. The rumen bugs.
The bugs. The rumen microbiome is establishing
itself during those first critical weeks. It's
an entire colonization process. And there's this
fascinating research by Sharon and colleagues
published in Frontiers in Microbiology. It shows
that rumen bugs are incredibly sensitive to change.
How sensitive? They take anywhere from a few
days to get this, three full weeks to adapt to
a new diet. Three weeks. Three plus weeks. So
if I am buying a least cost formulated starter,
and the local mill changes the formula every
time they get a new delivery of cheaper ingredients.
And your Kaz rumens are in a constant state of
adaptation stress. Just as the bugs finally figure
out how to digest the current mix, the mix changes
again. It's like... Okay, imagine switching a
construction crew's lunch menu every single day.
One day you feed them heavy burgers. The next
day it's strictly vegan salad. The next day it's
raw fish. That sounds like a terrible idea. Right.
And then you expect them to go back out on the
site and lay bricks at peak efficiency immediately.
You would have a lot of upset stomachs and a
whole lot less bricklaying. That is a... Perfect
analogy. They'd be spending all their time just
trying to process the fuel instead of doing the
work. Exactly. And the consequence on the farm
is very real. Feed efficiency drops because the
bugs just aren't optimized for the substrate
they're trying to break down. So the risk of
digestive upset rises. Substantially. The rumen
never actually stabilizes. And we see this in
the hutches, don't we? We see the scours. We
see those stallouts where a calf just stops growing
for a wink and looks a little rough. Yes. And
what do we usually blame it on? Oh, we blame
the weather. We blame a draft in the barn. Or
we think some random virus just blew through
the operation. But the data suggests it could
literally just be that the feed changed. That
is a major variable that we almost completely
ignore. We assume the feed is a constant because
the physical bag looks the exact same. But biologically,
it might be presenting a completely different
challenge for that calf to break down. Okay,
so... Biologically speaking, consistency makes
a ton of sense. Room instability is good. But
let's look at the industry reality check here
in segment two. Let's do it. Are we actually
doing a bad job right now? Because I feel like
generally speaking, calf health has gotten a
lot better over the last 20 years. It has. We
absolutely have to give credit where it is due.
The deep dive highlights data from the USDA's
National Animal Health Monitoring System, the
NAHMS data. Right. Back in 1992, calf mortality
was sitting at 8 .4%. Which is rough. Very rough.
But by the 2014 study, it was down to 5 .0%.
So it almost cut in half. That is significant
progress across the industry. It is great progress.
Better housing, better colostrum management,
better vaccination protocols. But. There is always
a but. There was always a but. The 2014 NAHMS
study also showed that 33 .8 % of pre -weaned
heifers experienced at least one bout of illness.
Wait, almost 34 %? Yes. Morbidity is nearly 34%.
So a third of the replacement herd is getting
sick? A third. And digestive problems specifically
account for half of that number. That... Wow,
when you actually say it out loud like that.
33 .8%, it's sobering. If you have 100 calves,
34 of them require treatment. That is a massive
amount of labor tying up your crew. Massive.
That is a massive amount of drug cost and a massive
amount of lost structural growth. Now compare
that reality to the Dairy Calf and Heifer Association
gold standards. The DCHA targets. What are their
targets? Their target for scours is less than
10%. Okay. And their target for survival is greater
than 97%. So we are sitting at an industry average
of 33 % morbidity, and the gold standard is under
10 % for scours. Exactly. There is a massive
gap there. A huge gap. And that gap represents
pure money left on the table. Which brings us
perfectly to segment three, following the money.
Because we can sit here and talk about microbiome
biology and DCHA standards all day, but if the
bank account doesn't balance at the end of the
month, None of this matters. Right. So let's
talk about the cost of consistency. If you go
to your feed rep tomorrow and say, I want a fixed
formulation. I want the exact same ingredients,
the same ratios, every single load, no matter
what the commodity market does. They're going
to charge you for taking on that risk. Oh, absolutely.
They have to hedge that. The source material
estimates the premium for fixed formulation starters
is typically around $20 to $40 per ton. OK, $40
a ton. That sounds pretty steep when you're staring
at the monthly invoice. It does. But let's break
down the farmer math here. Let's take a standard
scenario of a 400 calf operation. OK, 400 calves.
They use roughly 60 tons of starter annually.
60 tons. So at a $40 premium, that is an extra
$2 ,400 a year. Exactly. $1 ,200 to $2 ,400 per
year, depending on the premium spread in your
area. All right, $2 ,400. That is not nothing.
But in the grand scheme of a 400 -cow dairy plaque,
that's the cost of, what, a couple of dead calves.
Less than that if you factor in the genetic potential
you're losing. And this is where the return on
investment potential gets really interesting.
Walk me through the ROI. If you gain just five
extra kilograms in weaning weight... Because
your calves aren't stalling out every time the
diet changes. And we apply that Cornell multiplier.
The 1 ,113 kilogram rule. Yes. The extra milk
on your check in two years covers that $2 ,400
feed premium very, very quickly. And that's not
even counting the immediate savings in the calf
barn. Right. Because treating a sick calf isn't
cheap. You have the antibiotics, you have the
electrolytes, the oral rehydration therapies,
and the sheer time it takes your calf manager
to tend to them. It adds up fast. If I can cut
my scours rate from 30 % down to 10 % just by
stabilizing the feed, that is real cash in my
pocket today, not just milk money in two years.
Absolutely. The hidden savings in reduced treatment
costs alone often justify the premium. But I
know you have a strong counterpoint here based
on farm realities. I do. Because I really do
not want listeners to think this is some sort
of magic powder you can just buy your way into.
It never is. If your housing is essentially a
swamp, if your ventilation is terrible and the
air is heavy with ammonia, if your colostrum
harvesting and delivery program is weak, then
spending $40 extra a ton on fancy consistent
feed is useless. You are just lighting money
on fire at that point. If the calf is breathing
bad air and swimming in mud, the consistency
of the starch source in their grain is the least
of their problem. 100%. You simply cannot feed
your way out of bad management. Right. But the
consensus from the experts is clear. The math
heavily favors the premium feed if you have those
management basics covered. If you are already
running a tight ship, this is the very next lever
you need to pull. So let's look at an operation
that actually pulled that lever. Moving into
segment four, we have a fantastic case study
from California. I love real world examples.
What did they do? It's a large operation and
the calf manager decided she was done chasing
the cheapest feed option every month. She locked
in a fixed formulation. She locked it in, same
ingredients, same ratios. And what were the actual
results? Her scours rate dropped to 6%. 6%. So
she actually beat the DCHA gold standard of 10%.
She crushed it. But here's the metric that I
found most fascinating from her data. She tracked
something called the coefficient of variation,
the CV. Okay, break that down for us. What is
the CV in this context? It is a statistical measure
of consistency. It's the standard deviation divided
by the mean. In plain English. In plain English,
it tells you how wide the spread of your weaning
weights is across a group of calves. Okay, so
are they all weaning at a similar weight or are
they all over the board? Exactly. Before the
switch to fixed feed, her CV was 14%, which is
pretty widespread. Within four months of implementing
the consistent feed program, that CV dropped
to under 9%. That is a massive tightening of
the group. Why does that matter so much to the
bottom line? Because uniform calves are vastly
easier to manage. Of course. If you have a pen
where some heifers are weaning at 150 pounds
and others are pushing 200 pounds, breeding them
on a schedule becomes a nightmare. Grouping them
is a nightmare. Transitioning them is a headache.
Uniformity equals efficiency. And there is another
point in this case study that I really gravitate
toward, the noise factor. Yes, the diagnostic
noise. Manager mentioned that when the feed was
finally consistent... She could actually see
the other problems on the dairy. Because the
variable feed was masking everything else. Right.
Once the feed was a constant known entity, she
realized, oh, we actually have a ventilation
dead spot in this specific row of hutches. Or
we have a weekend shift that isn't mixing the
colostrum correctly. It removes the confounding
variable completely. It does. If the feed changes
every two weeks and a calf gets sick. You have
no idea what cost it. Was it the new soy batch?
Was it the weather swing? Was it bad bedding?
But if the feed is rock solid and never changes
and a calf gets sick, you know, for a fact you
have a management or environmental issue to hunt
down. That diagnostic clarity alone is worth
the extra money. it stops you from chasing ghosts.
Okay, so let's put ourselves in the listener's
shoes. They are driving the feed truck right
now, nodding along, thinking, okay, I want this
consistent feed. They're sold on the concept.
But how do they actually know if they're getting
it? Because let's be honest, every single feed
salesman is going to stand in your driveway and
say their product is high quality and consistent.
Which brings us to segment five, future implications
and supplier relations. You absolutely have to
audit your supplier. You cannot just take the
rep's word for it. So what are the questions
I need to ask? Because just looking at them and
saying, are you lying to me? Probably isn't going
to get a straight answer. No, probably not. You
need to ask these three specific questions. Number
one, ask them, can you show me the batch records
for the last 12 months? Batch records. Yes. If
they are actually running a consistent fixed
formulation, they will have detailed batch records
showing that the ingredient inclusion rates stayed
exactly the same. And if they hem and haw about
it. If they can't show you or they make excuses
about proprietary formulas, they're not tracking
consistency, period. That's a great litmus test.
Show me the receipts. Question number two to
ask your rep. What percentage of your ingredients
are from fixed suppliers versus the spot market?
Meaning, do you buy your protein from the same
reliable processor every single time, or are
you just buying whatever is cheapest on the commodity
rail car that week? Exactly. The source of the
ingredient matters just as much as the ingredient
itself. And question number three, do you test
your incoming ingredients with NIR spectroscopy?
Near -infrared spectroscopy. Yes. It is a scanning
technology used to verify the actual nutrient
profile of the raw ingredients before they ever
get dumped into the mixer. So it proves they
are actively testing the inputs, not just slapping
a label on the final output. Right. It shows
a commitment to actual quality control at the
mill level. Okay. Those are three highly actionable
questions. Now let's manage some expectations
here. We need to. Because biology takes time,
as we established. If I go out and switch my
herd to a fixed formula tomorrow, are my calves
going to look absolutely perfect by this Friday?
Definitely not. And in fact, they might actually
look a little bit worse for a few days. This
is what you call the wobble, right? A wobble,
yes. The source material warns farmers not to
panic during the initial switch. Weeks one through
three are the wobble period. What happens during
the wobble? The rumen bugs are adapting to the
new feed. Even though it's a better consistent
feed, it is still new to them. So you might see
fecal consistency change. The manure might get
a little loose. And that right there is the exact
moment the farmer usually panics. Oh, yeah. They
get on the phone call with the nutritionist and
start screaming that this expensive premium feed
is giving all their calves scours. And that is
the absolute worst thing you can do. You have
to ride out the adaptation phase. Do not fire
the nutritionist on day three. Do not fire them.
Hold the line. Because in weeks three through
six, that is when intake smooths out and you
see treatments start to aggressively decline.
And then by week six through eight. By week six
through eight, you start seeing that weaning
weight distribution tighten up. That coefficient
of variation drops. So you really have to commit
to at least a solid two -month trial to even
begin to see the true biological results. At
least two months. You cannot rush the microbiome.
Okay, we are getting towards the final stretch
here and we need to do our signature segment.
Segment six, the contrarian takes. The bovine
perspective. Right, because we have painted a
pretty rosy picture so far. Pay more money, get
more milk. But we have to be honest about the
limitations of the data we're looking at. We
do. There is currently limited controlled research
specifically comparing variable versus fixed
feed formulas directly against each other in
massive trials. Right. We have the Cornell data
showing the link between early growth and first
lactation milk. Yes. And we have the microbiology
data showing how long the rumen takes to adapt
to diet changes. Correct. But the direct hard
link saying fixed feed equals more milk is still
largely based on combining those biological principles
with producer experience. It is suggestive evidence.
It is very strong logical evidence, but it is
not. absolute irrefutable proof from a 10 ,000
cow randomized control trial. And here's my no
-nonsense view on this whole thing. The strategy
isn't for everyone. Explain what you mean by
that. It comes back to prioritization. If you
are a dairy and you have dirty water buckets,
inconsistent feeding times and poor ventilation,
fixing those management failures costs you zero
dollars in feed premiums. You have to fix the
free stuff first. Exactly. Nutritionists will
be the first to admit this. What works as a marginal
gain for one high performing farm might be a
complete waste of money for a farm that is struggling
with the basics. If you are losing 10 percent
of your calves to pneumonia because your barn
is closed up. too tight in the winter do not
worry about the amino acid profile of your starter
grain go open the curtains exactly yeah but i
will add this layer of nuance from the research
operations that have high genomic selection for
feed efficiency seem to see the absolute biggest
bang for their buck with fixed feeds. Well, that
makes total sense. If you are spending big money
buying high merit genetics or aggressively breeding
for high feed efficiency, those calves are basically
finely tuned Ferraris. And if you put low octane,
dirty variable fuel into a Ferrari, it is going
to sputter. It will underperform. High merit
calves biologically respond better to optimize
stable nutrition. So if you are investing heavily
on the genetic side of the ledger, you almost
have to invest in the nutrition side to actually
unlock it. Otherwise, you are just wasting that
genetic premium entirely. All right, let's bring
this all home for the listener. A farmer just
finished milking. They are driving the skid steer
pushing up feed right now. What are the three
concrete things they need to take away and do?
Okay, here are your actionable insights. Let's
break it down by timeline. Number one is your
immediate action for this week. What are we doing
this week? Benchmark your baseline. Pull your
weaning weight data for the last three calf cohorts.
Do the math and calculate your coefficient of
variation. The standard deviation divided by
the mean. Yes. If your CV is over 10 % or if
your herd morbidity is anywhere near that NA
HMS average of 33%, you have a clear problem.
You have to know your starting point before you
change anything. All right, what is number two?
The medium -term strategy for the next three
to six months. The supplier audit. Sit down with
your feed rep and ask the hard questions. Fixed
versus least cost. Show me the batch records.
Are you using NIR? And look closely at the price
difference. Take that $20 to $40 a ton and run
the actual math for your specific herd size.
And if the math looks viable, consider running
a pilot program. Put one cohort of calves on
the fixed feed while maintaining your old program
for the others. Track the difference in treatments
and growth. Let the calves tell you if it works.
And number three, the long -term positioning
for the next one to two years. Structure for
lifetime yield. You have to mentally view calf
raising as a long -term investment, not a short
-term cost center. Aim for those DCHA gold standards.
97 % survival and less than 10 % scours. And
most importantly, monitor the first lactation
milk yields of those pilot calves that were on
the consistent feed. Validate that Cornell 1
,113 kilogram statistic on your own farm using
your own parlor data. That is the ultimate test.
Do not just trust the university study. Trust
your own bulk tank. Exactly. What if we completely
stopped viewing calf starter as just a feed and
started viewing it as a genetic expression tool?
That is a phenomenal way to look at it. It really
changes the way you look at a simple bag of grain.
It's not just about the price printed on the
tag. It is fundamentally about what the bugs
in the rumen are doing with that feed. And realizing
that a lack of consistency might be the hidden
variable that is holding back your entire herd's
potential. Absolutely. So to everyone listening.
Do your own math. Generic ROI claims are trash.
Use your own numbers. This has been another Bullvine
podcast from The Bullvine Podcast. For more straight
-talking industry analysis, head over to www
.thebullvine .com. Subscribe wherever you get
your podcasts. We're out with new episodes every
day, and upcoming topics will be diving into
robotic rotary efficiency. Thanks for listening.