WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:02.719 we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast. 00:01:03.020 --> 00:01:06.939 If you are tuning in, you know the drill. This 00:01:06.939 --> 00:01:09.780 is the No BS Zone for Dairy Analysis. That's 00:01:09.780 --> 00:01:12.780 right. We aren't here to sell you semen. We aren't 00:01:12.780 --> 00:01:16.099 here to push the latest feed additive. And we 00:01:16.099 --> 00:01:18.920 are certainly not here to tell you that everything 00:01:18.920 --> 00:01:20.959 in the industry is sunshine and rainbows just 00:01:20.959 --> 00:01:25.140 to make you feel good. We are here to cut through 00:01:25.140 --> 00:01:27.200 the noise, and there is a lot of noise out there 00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:29.900 right now, to get you the insights that actually 00:01:29.900 --> 00:01:32.260 matter for your operation. And that's the keyword, 00:01:32.459 --> 00:01:34.900 matter. We are talking about the bottom line. 00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:37.219 I'm not interested in which bull won the beauty 00:01:37.219 --> 00:01:38.980 contest at the Royal, and frankly, I don't think 00:01:38.980 --> 00:01:41.519 you are either. No. I want to know what's going 00:01:41.519 --> 00:01:44.799 to keep a farm profitable when milk prices are 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:47.739 all over the map and input costs just keep climbing. 00:01:47.920 --> 00:01:49.920 We're always looking for that practical angle, 00:01:49.980 --> 00:01:51.840 what actually moves the needle on the profit 00:01:51.840 --> 00:01:55.159 and loss statement. Exactly. And today we are 00:01:55.159 --> 00:01:57.540 doing a deep dive into a feature piece that, 00:01:57.599 --> 00:02:00.099 quite frankly, kept me up a little bit last night. 00:02:00.159 --> 00:02:02.870 We were talking about genetic blind spots. It's 00:02:02.870 --> 00:02:05.730 a heavy topic and it sounds a bit, I don't know, 00:02:05.750 --> 00:02:08.289 a bit abstract, doesn't it? Genetic blind spots. 00:02:08.509 --> 00:02:10.129 It does. It sounds like something a professor 00:02:10.129 --> 00:02:12.650 talks about in a lecture hall. But what we're 00:02:12.650 --> 00:02:14.569 going to find out today is that this concept 00:02:14.569 --> 00:02:19.050 has a... a direct line to your bank account. 00:02:19.229 --> 00:02:21.710 A very direct line. And look, we all love the 00:02:21.710 --> 00:02:23.569 progress we've seen. We love the high components, 00:02:23.710 --> 00:02:26.370 the production records. It is 2026 after all. 00:02:26.430 --> 00:02:29.830 The cows we have today are just, they're biological 00:02:29.830 --> 00:02:32.330 marvels compared to 20 years ago. Oh, absolutely. 00:02:32.650 --> 00:02:35.129 But this article brings up a concept that is 00:02:35.129 --> 00:02:38.669 a bit terrifying. The premise is that while everyone 00:02:38.669 --> 00:02:41.310 is obsessing over the net merit rankings, you 00:02:41.310 --> 00:02:43.189 know, scrolling through that top 100 list on 00:02:43.189 --> 00:02:45.030 their phone, looking for the highest number. 00:02:45.849 --> 00:02:49.270 There is a hidden tax being levied on herds that 00:02:49.270 --> 00:02:52.569 nobody is talking about. A hidden tax is a, that's 00:02:52.569 --> 00:02:54.150 a polite way of putting it. It feels more like 00:02:54.150 --> 00:02:56.449 a hole in the bucket. A massive hole. Because 00:02:56.449 --> 00:02:59.469 the data suggests this tax might be wiping out 00:02:59.469 --> 00:03:02.389 almost 100 % of the genetic gains farmers think 00:03:02.389 --> 00:03:04.289 they are making. So you think you're moving forward? 00:03:04.449 --> 00:03:06.289 You think you're moving forward because your 00:03:06.289 --> 00:03:08.969 milk check is bigger, but your wallet might be 00:03:08.969 --> 00:03:10.870 staying in exactly the same place because that 00:03:10.870 --> 00:03:12.960 money is just leaking out the back door. And 00:03:12.960 --> 00:03:16.259 that's the controversy right there, because like 00:03:16.259 --> 00:03:20.500 you said, it is 2026. We have tools now that 00:03:20.500 --> 00:03:23.340 we didn't dream of 20 years ago. The pace of 00:03:23.340 --> 00:03:27.340 genetic acceleration is faster than ever. So 00:03:27.340 --> 00:03:30.000 how can we be moving this fast and still be standing 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:33.099 still? That's the engine problem. Genomic selection 00:03:33.099 --> 00:03:36.560 is the engine. It's roaring. It has doubled genetic 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:40.020 progress in terms of, you know, raw. production, 00:03:40.020 --> 00:03:43.060 we are getting milk out of cows that our grandfathers 00:03:43.060 --> 00:03:45.879 wouldn't have believed possible. But the core 00:03:45.879 --> 00:03:48.139 argument we're looking at today is that every 00:03:48.139 --> 00:03:50.580 engine, no matter how fast or advanced, has a 00:03:50.580 --> 00:03:52.680 blind spot. And if you're driving at 100 miles 00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:54.759 an hour, a blind spot is lethal. And we need 00:03:54.759 --> 00:03:56.159 to be clear about the stakes here. This isn't 00:03:56.159 --> 00:03:58.460 just about pretty cows or type traits or, you 00:03:58.460 --> 00:04:00.099 know, whether the rump angle is perfect. No, 00:04:00.099 --> 00:04:02.900 not at all. This is about the fundamental biological 00:04:02.900 --> 00:04:06.259 profitability of the herd. We are breeding for 00:04:06.259 --> 00:04:10.860 more milk faster. That's the gas pedal. But are 00:04:10.860 --> 00:04:12.900 we accidentally breeding for cows that can't 00:04:12.900 --> 00:04:15.620 get pregnant or cows that drop dead the moment 00:04:15.620 --> 00:04:18.180 the thermometer hits 80 degrees? That's the tension. 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:21.420 That is the entire tension. Yeah. We're going 00:04:21.420 --> 00:04:23.180 to get into some numbers that are going to make 00:04:23.180 --> 00:04:24.920 some people uncomfortable. We're going to talk 00:04:24.920 --> 00:04:26.800 about something called the inbreeding bill. The 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:30.189 inbreeding. Yes. The math suggests that for some 00:04:30.189 --> 00:04:32.649 herds inbreeding depression is costing as much 00:04:32.649 --> 00:04:35.329 money as that extra milk is bringing in. I have 00:04:35.329 --> 00:04:37.610 to admit, when I first read that headline that 00:04:37.610 --> 00:04:40.029 inbreeding is wiping out the profit gains, my 00:04:40.029 --> 00:04:44.129 initial reaction was skepticism. Sure. It sounds 00:04:44.129 --> 00:04:46.290 like fear mongering. You know, the sky is falling. 00:04:46.389 --> 00:04:48.209 The gene pool is too small. We're all doomed. 00:04:48.269 --> 00:04:49.790 I hear that a lot from people who just want to 00:04:49.790 --> 00:04:52.089 sell crossbreeding. So I'm going into this with 00:04:52.089 --> 00:04:54.410 my guard up. Good. I want to see the proof. I 00:04:54.410 --> 00:04:56.910 want to see the dollars and cents. And that is 00:04:56.910 --> 00:04:58.829 exactly what we are going to do. We are going 00:04:58.829 --> 00:05:02.129 to prove the numbers. But to understand where 00:05:02.129 --> 00:05:04.970 we are going and to understand how we got into 00:05:04.970 --> 00:05:07.889 this mess, we have to look at where we came from. 00:05:08.069 --> 00:05:10.269 Yeah. We need to go back to a specific moment 00:05:10.269 --> 00:05:12.389 in history. A history lesson. You're going to 00:05:12.389 --> 00:05:14.350 give us a history lesson. A parable. Let's call 00:05:14.350 --> 00:05:18.370 it the parable of Missy. Missy, Westwood HC, 00:05:18.629 --> 00:05:20.970 Rudy Missy. I know where this is going. Of course 00:05:20.970 --> 00:05:23.480 you do. If you're talking about modern genetics, 00:05:23.699 --> 00:05:25.620 I mean, all roads lead back to her eventually. 00:05:25.920 --> 00:05:28.139 They do. But I want to set the scene because 00:05:28.139 --> 00:05:31.439 context matters here. It's February 2003. We 00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:34.019 are in Wisconsin. It's the Wisconsin Holstein 00:05:34.019 --> 00:05:36.800 Convention Sweetheart Sale. Now, you've been 00:05:36.800 --> 00:05:39.019 to sales in Wisconsin in February. Paint the 00:05:39.019 --> 00:05:40.959 picture for us. Oh, it's brutal. The wind just 00:05:40.959 --> 00:05:43.860 cuts right through you. You're usually in some 00:05:43.860 --> 00:05:46.800 drafty barn or a tent that's trying its best 00:05:46.800 --> 00:05:49.689 to stay warm, but it's failing. Miserably. You 00:05:49.689 --> 00:05:52.029 can see your breath, the cattle are fluffed up, 00:05:52.069 --> 00:05:53.829 looking their best, but everyone in the crowd 00:05:53.829 --> 00:05:57.089 is bundled up in Carhartts and heavy coats. It's 00:05:57.089 --> 00:05:59.470 serious business. You don't drive through Wisconsin 00:05:59.470 --> 00:06:01.810 Blizzard unless you are looking for the next 00:06:01.810 --> 00:06:04.750 big thing. Exactly. It's a room full of experienced 00:06:04.750 --> 00:06:07.410 breeders. These are guys who know cow families 00:06:07.410 --> 00:06:10.930 inside and out. But on this particular day, the 00:06:10.930 --> 00:06:14.410 sale is dragging a bit, the energy is low, and 00:06:14.410 --> 00:06:17.110 into the ring walks a five -year -old Holstein 00:06:17.110 --> 00:06:23.199 cow. And looking back from 2026, she's a legend. 00:06:23.240 --> 00:06:25.839 She's absolute royalty. But on that day in 2003, 00:06:26.139 --> 00:06:29.160 she was not the star of the show. Not even close. 00:06:29.579 --> 00:06:31.139 I've heard stories from guys who were there. 00:06:31.240 --> 00:06:33.519 The bidding actually stalled out. The auctioneer 00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:35.279 was getting that tired, you know, that frustrated 00:06:35.279 --> 00:06:37.180 edge to his voice. We know the one. You know 00:06:37.180 --> 00:06:39.220 the tone. Come on, boys. She's worth more than 00:06:39.220 --> 00:06:42.920 this. But the crowd was hesitant. Why? What was 00:06:42.920 --> 00:06:44.819 the knock on her? What were they seeing? You 00:06:44.819 --> 00:06:47.420 have to remember the era. 2003, this was the 00:06:47.420 --> 00:06:50.379 reign of the show ring. People wanted tall, long 00:06:50.379 --> 00:06:53.019 -necked, super dairy cows. They wanted balanced 00:06:53.019 --> 00:06:55.699 rumps. And Missy, well, her rump wasn't entirely 00:06:55.699 --> 00:06:58.839 balanced. She was a working cow. She had a high, 00:06:58.839 --> 00:07:02.079 wide rear udder, sure. But she wasn't the beauty 00:07:02.079 --> 00:07:04.720 queen that the market demanded at the time. She 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:07.240 didn't have that wow factor that makes people 00:07:07.240 --> 00:07:09.360 raise their hands. So people were checking their 00:07:09.360 --> 00:07:11.279 watches, maybe heading for the coffee stand. 00:07:11.500 --> 00:07:14.339 But then, the phone rings at the clerk's desk. 00:07:14.620 --> 00:07:16.620 And this is the moment. This is the moment that 00:07:16.620 --> 00:07:18.779 changed everything. It's Matt Steiner calling 00:07:18.779 --> 00:07:21.560 in from Pine Tree Dairy in Ohio. Now, Matt is 00:07:21.560 --> 00:07:24.279 a sharp guy, but here's the kicker. He hadn't 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:26.579 even seen her in person. Buying a cow unseen 00:07:26.579 --> 00:07:29.920 in 2003 was a huge gamble. You didn't have the 00:07:29.920 --> 00:07:31.899 video quality we have now. You were trusting 00:07:31.899 --> 00:07:34.060 the catalog and the numbers. And he's looking 00:07:34.060 --> 00:07:38.240 at the paper. Her second lactation was 31 ,880 00:07:38.240 --> 00:07:42.860 pounds at 4 .1 % fat and 3 .2 % protein. Which 00:07:42.860 --> 00:07:45.279 are respectable numbers, good solids, but not. 00:07:45.629 --> 00:07:47.629 Not earth shattering. Not for a sale like that. 00:07:47.709 --> 00:07:49.930 No. To everyone else in that room, she was just 00:07:49.930 --> 00:07:53.129 another decent cow past her prime. But Matt Steiner 00:07:53.129 --> 00:07:57.790 saw something. He bids $8 ,100. $8 ,100, which 00:07:57.790 --> 00:08:00.029 for a convention sale isn't a headline -grabbing 00:08:00.029 --> 00:08:02.490 price. It's a working cow price. And he got her. 00:08:02.759 --> 00:08:05.160 And that gamble paid off in a way that I don't 00:08:05.160 --> 00:08:08.199 think even Matt could have predicted. Missy became 00:08:08.199 --> 00:08:12.019 a global brood cow. She reshaped the breed for 00:08:12.019 --> 00:08:16.120 two decades. The sheer number of sons and grandsons 00:08:16.120 --> 00:08:17.860 that trace back to her. I mean, you're talking 00:08:17.860 --> 00:08:21.819 super sire, mogul, oak. It is staggering. It's 00:08:21.819 --> 00:08:24.959 unbelievable. If you milk Holsteins today, you 00:08:24.959 --> 00:08:27.680 are milking Missy genetics, period. There's no 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:30.199 escaping it. It is the ultimate American dream 00:08:30.199 --> 00:08:33.169 of dairy breeding. The smart buy that builds 00:08:33.169 --> 00:08:36.190 an empire. The underdog cow that takes over the 00:08:36.190 --> 00:08:40.710 world. But here is the oops moment. Here's the 00:08:40.710 --> 00:08:42.850 part of the story nobody tells when they're selling 00:08:42.850 --> 00:08:44.950 you a Missy grandson. The other side of the coin. 00:08:45.370 --> 00:08:48.450 Because there is always a cost. The exact same 00:08:48.450 --> 00:08:49.970 breeding system that built the Missy empire. 00:08:50.269 --> 00:08:52.610 The same focus on production. The same genomic 00:08:52.610 --> 00:08:54.889 toolkit that eventually came along and doubled 00:08:54.889 --> 00:08:56.870 our genetic gain was doing something else in 00:08:56.870 --> 00:08:58.909 the background. While we were celebrating that 00:08:58.909 --> 00:09:01.409 milk production and those high components, we 00:09:01.409 --> 00:09:03.470 were quietly dragging something else along for 00:09:03.470 --> 00:09:05.990 the ride. What exactly were we dragging? According 00:09:05.990 --> 00:09:08.090 to the research we are looking at today, while 00:09:08.090 --> 00:09:10.690 we were selecting for all that milk, we dragged 00:09:10.690 --> 00:09:15.909 198 fertility genes and 67 immunity genes in 00:09:15.909 --> 00:09:19.289 the wrong direction for 20 years. Whoa, hang 00:09:19.289 --> 00:09:23.940 on. 198 fertility genes in a wrong direction. 00:09:24.200 --> 00:09:28.279 Yes. Negative progress. We were actively selecting 00:09:28.279 --> 00:09:30.580 for cows that were harder to breed back. How 00:09:30.580 --> 00:09:32.720 does that even happen? Because I know dairy farmers. 00:09:32.919 --> 00:09:34.779 I know the guys running these breeding programs. 00:09:34.960 --> 00:09:37.559 Nobody, and I mean nobody, sits down and says, 00:09:37.620 --> 00:09:39.539 you know what I want? I want a cow that takes 00:09:39.539 --> 00:09:42.120 five services to settle. Of course not. We want 00:09:42.120 --> 00:09:44.860 pregnancy. We want calves. Fertility is profit. 00:09:46.590 --> 00:09:49.350 How do you accidentally select for the opposite 00:09:49.350 --> 00:09:51.490 of what you want? It's a concept called hitchhiking. 00:09:51.629 --> 00:09:53.610 Hitchhiking. OK, break that down for me. Think 00:09:53.610 --> 00:09:56.789 of a chromosome like a bus or better yet, a train. 00:09:57.389 --> 00:09:59.809 You want the passengers in the front car. Those 00:09:59.809 --> 00:10:02.070 are the genes for high milk production, high 00:10:02.070 --> 00:10:04.750 fat, high protein. Those are the VIPs. You select 00:10:04.750 --> 00:10:07.009 for those. You open the door and you invite those 00:10:07.009 --> 00:10:09.269 genes onto the train. OK, I'm with you. We want 00:10:09.269 --> 00:10:11.710 the milk genes. But because of how DNA works. 00:10:12.519 --> 00:10:15.759 Those genes are physically located next to other 00:10:15.759 --> 00:10:17.779 genes on the chromosome. They are neighbors. 00:10:17.919 --> 00:10:20.019 They are linked. And in this case, the neighbors 00:10:20.019 --> 00:10:22.480 sitting right next to the high milk genes were 00:10:22.480 --> 00:10:25.259 bad fertility genes and low immunity genes. So 00:10:25.259 --> 00:10:27.059 when we invited the milk genes on board. The 00:10:27.059 --> 00:10:29.759 bad fertility genes hitchhiked. They got on the 00:10:29.759 --> 00:10:32.019 train for free because they were holding hands 00:10:32.019 --> 00:10:34.039 with the milk genes. And here's the crucial part. 00:10:35.510 --> 00:10:38.850 In 2003, and even for years after, nobody was 00:10:38.850 --> 00:10:40.710 measuring the passengers in the back of the train. 00:10:40.809 --> 00:10:42.789 We couldn't see them. We didn't have the genomic 00:10:42.789 --> 00:10:44.730 resolution to see them. We were only looking 00:10:44.730 --> 00:10:46.929 at the driver's seat. So we are driving the train, 00:10:46.990 --> 00:10:49.649 shoveling coal into the engine to get more faster, 00:10:49.929 --> 00:10:51.870 faster, faster. And we don't realize the back 00:10:51.870 --> 00:10:53.789 cars are filling up with hooligans who are going 00:10:53.789 --> 00:10:56.629 to trash the interior. That is the perfect analogy. 00:10:57.200 --> 00:10:59.539 We spent 20 years filling the bus with bad fertility 00:10:59.539 --> 00:11:01.980 genes. That actually explains so much about the 00:11:01.980 --> 00:11:04.360 90s and the early 2000s. I remember those days 00:11:04.360 --> 00:11:08.440 vividly. We had these cows, those big ribbed, 00:11:08.440 --> 00:11:11.860 high producing cows that milked like crazy. But 00:11:11.860 --> 00:11:13.940 you just could not get them bred. Conception 00:11:13.940 --> 00:11:16.340 rates tanked across the industry. We blamed everything. 00:11:16.600 --> 00:11:19.039 We blamed the nutritionists. We blamed the heat. 00:11:19.120 --> 00:11:22.269 We blamed the vaccines. And it turns out. We 00:11:22.269 --> 00:11:24.230 did it to ourselves. It wasn't just management. 00:11:24.269 --> 00:11:26.629 It wasn't just nutrition. It was genetic. We 00:11:26.629 --> 00:11:30.690 bred them to be infertile. But playing devil's 00:11:30.690 --> 00:11:33.250 advocate here, we fixed it, right? I mean, look 00:11:33.250 --> 00:11:35.929 at daughter pregnancy rate, DPR. Now we recognize 00:11:35.929 --> 00:11:38.090 the problem. We added fertility to the index 00:11:38.090 --> 00:11:40.470 and the trend line is going up. Cows are getting 00:11:40.470 --> 00:11:43.149 pregnant again. We did fix it eventually, but 00:11:43.149 --> 00:11:46.549 only after a 20 -year crash. We lost two decades 00:11:46.549 --> 00:11:48.990 of fertility progress before we even realized 00:11:48.990 --> 00:11:51.309 the bus was full of the wrong passengers. And 00:11:51.309 --> 00:11:53.750 that's the entire point of this deep dive. We 00:11:53.750 --> 00:11:55.690 aren't here to bash the past. We are asking. 00:11:56.029 --> 00:11:58.149 What are we breaking today that we won't notice 00:11:58.149 --> 00:12:00.350 for another decade? What is hitchhiking on the 00:12:00.350 --> 00:12:03.309 bus right now in 2026? That is the scary question 00:12:03.309 --> 00:12:05.710 because the engine is moving faster now. If we 00:12:05.710 --> 00:12:07.509 are making a mistake, we're making it at 100 00:12:07.509 --> 00:12:09.529 miles per hour instead of 50. Let's talk about 00:12:09.529 --> 00:12:12.149 that speed, the engine. Since genomics really 00:12:12.149 --> 00:12:15.230 took over, let's say post -2009, the speed of 00:12:15.230 --> 00:12:19.120 change is just mind -blowing. It really is. I 00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:20.580 was looking at the stats in the source material. 00:12:20.759 --> 00:12:22.919 The generation interval, that's the time between 00:12:22.919 --> 00:12:25.039 one generation and the next, it dropped from 00:12:25.039 --> 00:12:30.110 21 .4 years in 2009 to 13 .5 years by 2015. That 00:12:30.110 --> 00:12:33.330 is a 37 % reduction in just six years. In six 00:12:33.330 --> 00:12:36.610 years. And the sire of bulls pathway, that collapsed 00:12:36.610 --> 00:12:38.509 to under two and a half years. Right. We are 00:12:38.509 --> 00:12:40.970 using bulls that are basically babies to breed 00:12:40.970 --> 00:12:43.269 the next generation of bulls. We aren't waiting 00:12:43.269 --> 00:12:44.990 for them to have milking daughters anymore. Which 00:12:44.990 --> 00:12:47.190 is great for speed. If you know exactly where 00:12:47.190 --> 00:12:49.490 you're going, getting there faster is good. It's 00:12:49.490 --> 00:12:52.269 efficient. Right. And the good news is visible 00:12:52.269 --> 00:12:54.470 in the milk check. The source material highlights 00:12:54.470 --> 00:12:57.370 this. Milk yield gain jumped from about 50 kilograms 00:12:57.370 --> 00:13:00.769 per year to 109 kilograms per year for registered 00:13:00.769 --> 00:13:02.789 Holsteins. Okay, let's translate that to the 00:13:02.789 --> 00:13:05.029 bulk tank, because kilograms per year is abstract 00:13:05.029 --> 00:13:07.509 for a lot of people. Do it. If you take a standard 00:13:07.509 --> 00:13:10.470 200 -cow herd, that acceleration, that extra 00:13:10.470 --> 00:13:12.450 speed we are getting from genomics, is roughly 00:13:12.450 --> 00:13:15.830 $5 ,070 in extra gross milk revenue annually. 00:13:15.889 --> 00:13:18.490 That's assuming, you know, a $19 .50 mailbox 00:13:18.490 --> 00:13:22.690 price. So on paper, you are $5 ,000 richer every 00:13:22.690 --> 00:13:25.909 year just by using modern genetics. That's the 00:13:25.909 --> 00:13:28.370 sales pitch. Right. That's the gain. That's the 00:13:28.370 --> 00:13:30.350 carrot they dangle in front of you. Use these 00:13:30.350 --> 00:13:32.529 bulls. Get more milk. Make more money. But now 00:13:32.529 --> 00:13:35.509 we have to talk about the stick. Or maybe the 00:13:35.509 --> 00:13:37.950 reality check. Because there is a very unique 00:13:37.950 --> 00:13:40.230 study out of the University of Minnesota that 00:13:40.230 --> 00:13:43.309 proves just how much biology we broke to get 00:13:43.309 --> 00:13:45.669 that money. This is the Waseca herd study, right? 00:13:45.769 --> 00:13:47.649 I love this study because it's something you 00:13:47.649 --> 00:13:49.610 can't really replicate on a commercial farm. 00:13:49.870 --> 00:13:52.590 Exactly. The University of Minnesota researcher 00:13:52.590 --> 00:13:54.850 did something nobody else really bothered to 00:13:54.850 --> 00:13:59.570 do. Since 1964, they kept a control line. Explain 00:13:59.570 --> 00:14:00.990 what that means for the listener, because it 00:14:00.990 --> 00:14:02.850 sounds like a science experiment, which it is. 00:14:03.009 --> 00:14:05.049 A control line means they have a group of cows 00:14:05.049 --> 00:14:07.149 that they never improved. They kept breeding 00:14:07.149 --> 00:14:10.509 them like it was 1964. They used semen from bulls 00:14:10.509 --> 00:14:13.570 that were popular in the 60s. No modern bulls. 00:14:13.570 --> 00:14:16.549 No selection for milk. Just maintaining the old 00:14:16.549 --> 00:14:18.789 genetics. So they are basically time travelers. 00:14:18.830 --> 00:14:20.889 You can walk into that barn and you have cows 00:14:20.889 --> 00:14:24.049 from 1964 standing right next to cows from 2026. 00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:27.000 Exactly. And they're in the same barn. They eat 00:14:27.000 --> 00:14:29.519 the same TMR. They are milked by the same people. 00:14:29.559 --> 00:14:31.120 They have the same bedding. Which eliminates 00:14:31.120 --> 00:14:33.299 all the excuses. You can't say, oh, it's the 00:14:33.299 --> 00:14:36.019 feed or it's the ventilation or the herdsman 00:14:36.019 --> 00:14:38.220 is having a bad day. The environment is identical. 00:14:38.460 --> 00:14:40.460 The only variable is the genes. So what happened? 00:14:40.500 --> 00:14:49.080 By 2004... That is a massive success story. Huge. 00:14:49.159 --> 00:14:51.860 If you told a farmer in 1964 he could get almost 00:14:51.860 --> 00:14:53.960 80 % more milk, he'd think you were a wizard. 00:14:54.299 --> 00:14:57.679 But, and here's the hitchhiker. Yeah. The modern 00:14:57.679 --> 00:15:01.220 cows also lost 30 days in conception time. 30 00:15:01.220 --> 00:15:04.879 days. 30 days open. 30 days just lost. That is 00:15:04.879 --> 00:15:07.559 massive. Anyone listening knows that days open 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:09.940 is the silent killer of profitability. Every 00:15:09.940 --> 00:15:12.000 day a cow is open past her voluntary waiting 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.100 period. It's costing you three, four, maybe five 00:15:14.100 --> 00:15:16.539 dollars a day in feed and lost opportunity. 30 00:15:16.539 --> 00:15:19.440 days is a disaster. And remember, same food, 00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:22.299 same barn. The smoking gun is undeniable. It 00:15:22.299 --> 00:15:24.779 wasn't nutrition. It was purely genetic. We broke 00:15:24.779 --> 00:15:26.600 the reproductive system to get the milk. And 00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:29.580 that ties back to the hitchhiking genes. We know 00:15:29.580 --> 00:15:32.080 now that we drag those fertility genes down. 00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:36.559 But again, playing the optimist here. We fixed 00:15:36.559 --> 00:15:39.139 it. We added DPR to the index. So why are we 00:15:39.139 --> 00:15:40.899 still working? Because the article argues that 00:15:40.899 --> 00:15:42.960 we are doing the exact same thing right now to 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:45.620 a different trait, a trait that is becoming critically 00:15:45.620 --> 00:15:48.259 important, perhaps even more important than fertility 00:15:48.259 --> 00:15:51.440 in some regions. Which trait is that? Heat tolerance. 00:15:51.700 --> 00:15:54.639 Heat tolerance. Now, this is interesting because 00:15:54.639 --> 00:15:56.720 I look at my cows in the summer and, yeah, they 00:15:56.720 --> 00:15:58.960 get hot. Of course they do. But we have fans. 00:15:59.080 --> 00:16:01.759 We have sprinklers. I just put in a new tunnel 00:16:01.759 --> 00:16:04.940 ventilation barn. I feel like I'm managing heat 00:16:04.940 --> 00:16:07.279 stress pretty well. You think you are? I can 00:16:07.279 --> 00:16:09.600 keep the barn at 68 degrees when it's 90 outside 00:16:09.600 --> 00:16:11.980 if the wind is right. You are managing the environment. 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:13.840 You are masking the genetics. You are putting 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:16.620 a band -aid on a genetic wound. Okay, unpack 00:16:16.620 --> 00:16:19.500 that. How is it a genetic wound? Research by 00:16:19.500 --> 00:16:22.399 Mistal and Brito, and these are heavy hitters 00:16:22.399 --> 00:16:24.379 in genetics, not guys who just make stuff up, 00:16:24.460 --> 00:16:27.799 shows that the THI threshold where cows start 00:16:27.799 --> 00:16:30.659 losing milk has dropped significantly. THI being 00:16:30.659 --> 00:16:33.480 the temperature humidity index. Basically, how 00:16:33.480 --> 00:16:36.080 hot and sticky it feels. Right. 20 years ago, 00:16:36.139 --> 00:16:38.440 a cow wouldn't start dropping milk, wouldn't 00:16:38.440 --> 00:16:40.740 start showing signs of metabolic stress until 00:16:40.740 --> 00:16:44.600 the THI hit 72. Okay. Today, that number is 69. 00:16:44.960 --> 00:16:47.460 So my cows are wimpier than they were 20 years 00:16:47.460 --> 00:16:50.360 ago. They can't handle the heat as well. Biologically, 00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:53.740 yes. They are more fragile. And here is the scary 00:16:53.740 --> 00:16:57.220 part, the mechanism behind it. It's a phenomenon 00:16:57.220 --> 00:17:00.019 called the metabolic override. That sounds like 00:17:00.019 --> 00:17:02.240 a sci -fi term. Metabolic override initiated? 00:17:02.679 --> 00:17:04.940 It effectively is. In the old days, you know, 00:17:04.980 --> 00:17:07.700 pre -Missy, pre -genomics, if a cow got hot, 00:17:07.819 --> 00:17:09.819 what did she do? She stopped eating. She stood 00:17:09.819 --> 00:17:12.200 in the shade. She panted. And her milk dropped. 00:17:12.299 --> 00:17:14.819 She shut down to save herself. Exactly. She prioritized 00:17:14.819 --> 00:17:17.460 survival over production. Her body said, it's 00:17:17.460 --> 00:17:19.299 too hot. I need to cool down. Screw the milk. 00:17:19.380 --> 00:17:22.440 Right. But the modern cow, we have bred that 00:17:22.440 --> 00:17:24.319 off switch out of her. We removed the safety 00:17:24.319 --> 00:17:27.839 valve. We did. The modern cow overrides that 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:30.400 protective shutdown. Her genetics are screaming, 00:17:30.519 --> 00:17:33.839 make milk so loudly that she ignores the heat. 00:17:33.960 --> 00:17:36.839 She keeps milking. She keeps pushing glucose 00:17:36.839 --> 00:17:39.220 to the utter, even when her body is overheating. 00:17:39.299 --> 00:17:41.940 So she's literally burning herself out. Yes. 00:17:42.019 --> 00:17:45.000 The research shows that cows maintaining production 00:17:45.000 --> 00:17:47.799 during heat stress peaks have a significantly 00:17:47.799 --> 00:17:50.880 increased likelihood of death, not just sickness. 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:54.000 Death. So they literally milk themselves to death. 00:17:54.259 --> 00:17:56.000 Effectively. Yeah. They don't have the off switch 00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:58.200 anymore. And because we have all these expensive 00:17:58.200 --> 00:18:01.019 fans and sprinklers and tunnel barns, we don't 00:18:01.019 --> 00:18:03.240 notice it as much. We are propping them up with 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:05.619 infrastructure. We are spending hundreds of thousands 00:18:05.619 --> 00:18:08.839 of dollars on fans to keep alive cows that we 00:18:08.839 --> 00:18:11.339 bred to be fragile. That's a kick in the teeth. 00:18:11.500 --> 00:18:14.119 It really is. We are spending money to fix a 00:18:14.119 --> 00:18:16.660 problem we created. And look at the map. Unless 00:18:16.660 --> 00:18:19.250 you were in Australia. Almost nobody selects 00:18:19.250 --> 00:18:21.950 for heat tolerance. In the U .S., look at the 00:18:21.950 --> 00:18:24.910 deep south. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana. 00:18:25.250 --> 00:18:27.009 I was looking at the NAS data the other day. 00:18:27.109 --> 00:18:29.069 Those states aren't even tracked monthly anymore 00:18:29.069 --> 00:18:31.170 for milk production. The numbers are so low, 00:18:31.230 --> 00:18:33.089 they just lump them into other. Because the industry 00:18:33.089 --> 00:18:36.009 is gone. Dairy is economically unviable there. 00:18:36.390 --> 00:18:39.150 It's the canary in the coal mine. We bred a cow 00:18:39.150 --> 00:18:41.589 that can't survive in the south. And as the climate 00:18:41.589 --> 00:18:44.150 warms, that line is moving north. Tennessee, 00:18:44.410 --> 00:18:47.680 Kentucky, southern Missouri. That is a sobering 00:18:47.680 --> 00:18:50.579 thought. If you are seeing 60 plus days above 00:18:50.579 --> 00:18:54.019 THI 68 in your area, and that's a lot of the 00:18:54.019 --> 00:18:56.279 U .S. now, even up into the Midwest in July and 00:18:56.279 --> 00:18:59.539 August, this is a slow motion crash happening 00:18:59.539 --> 00:19:02.579 in your herd right now. So we have fertility 00:19:02.579 --> 00:19:05.079 that we broke and fixed. We have heat tolerance 00:19:05.079 --> 00:19:07.779 that we are currently breaking. But now let's 00:19:07.779 --> 00:19:09.359 talk about the money because you said earlier 00:19:09.359 --> 00:19:11.180 you wanted to see the bill. You wanted to know 00:19:11.180 --> 00:19:12.839 if this was just fear mongering. Right. Show 00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:15.200 me the dollars because heat tolerance and blind 00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:17.380 spots are concepts. I pay my bills with cash. 00:19:17.660 --> 00:19:20.039 Okay. Let's talk about the inbreeding bill. Okay. 00:19:20.299 --> 00:19:21.740 Inbreeding is a word that gets thrown around 00:19:21.740 --> 00:19:23.799 a lot. Oh, the Holsteins are too inbred. The 00:19:23.799 --> 00:19:27.099 gene pool is a puddle. But does it actually cost 00:19:27.099 --> 00:19:28.920 me money or is it just something geneticists 00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:30.819 worry about? Let's look at the explosion first. 00:19:31.279 --> 00:19:34.519 U .S. Holstein inbreeding went from 5 .7 % in 00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:39.700 2010 to 15 .2 % in 2020. That is a 168 % jump 00:19:39.700 --> 00:19:42.359 in 10 years. And that coincides perfectly with 00:19:42.359 --> 00:19:44.779 the genomic era. The engine revved up and the 00:19:44.779 --> 00:19:47.440 inbreeding spiked. Exactly. An Italian study 00:19:47.440 --> 00:19:50.059 by Ablandi showed that genomic selection more 00:19:50.059 --> 00:19:52.839 than doubled the annual inbreeding rate. We are 00:19:52.839 --> 00:19:55.140 narrowing the gene pool at record speed because 00:19:55.140 --> 00:19:57.279 everyone's using the same top 10 bulls. Okay, 00:19:57.319 --> 00:20:01.500 so the number is higher. 15%. So what? Does a 00:20:01.500 --> 00:20:05.079 15 % inbred cow milk less than a 5 % inbred cow? 00:20:05.279 --> 00:20:08.299 Yes. And she dies sooner. No. And she gets sick 00:20:08.299 --> 00:20:11.279 more often. Here is the calculation from the 00:20:11.279 --> 00:20:14.500 USDA ARS. This isn't theoretical. This is based 00:20:14.500 --> 00:20:16.480 on millions of records. Lay it on me. The rule 00:20:16.480 --> 00:20:19.119 of thumb is that each 1 % increase in inbreeding 00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:22.859 costs $23 to $23 in lifetime net merit per cow. 00:20:23.220 --> 00:20:25.700 $25 per percent. That doesn't sound like much. 00:20:25.779 --> 00:20:27.359 It doesn't sound like much until you do the math 00:20:27.359 --> 00:20:29.220 on the trend. Let's go back to our hypothetical 00:20:29.220 --> 00:20:31.640 200 -cow herd. Let's say your inbreeding has 00:20:31.640 --> 00:20:34.579 crept up just 4 % over the last decade. And honestly, 00:20:34.680 --> 00:20:36.599 looking at the national average, 4 % is a very 00:20:36.599 --> 00:20:38.759 conservative estimate. It's likely much higher 00:20:38.759 --> 00:20:40.900 for herds chasing the high numbers. But let's 00:20:40.900 --> 00:20:45.920 use 4%. Okay, 4%. Let's say $24. That's about 00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:49.500 $96 loss per cow in lifetime profit. Now, spread 00:20:49.500 --> 00:20:51.759 that across your herd, depending on your turnover 00:20:51.759 --> 00:20:55.009 rate. how fast you cycle cows, you are looking 00:20:55.009 --> 00:20:59.130 at a total leak of $4 ,800 to $6 ,400 per year 00:20:59.130 --> 00:21:02.000 for that 200 cow herd. Wait a minute. Hang on. 00:21:02.039 --> 00:21:03.380 I'm doing the math in my head here. Let's do 00:21:03.380 --> 00:21:05.839 a comparison. Earlier, we said the gain from 00:21:05.839 --> 00:21:08.259 the extra milf steed, that 109 -kilogram jump, 00:21:08.480 --> 00:21:11.920 was worth about $5 ,070 a year for that same 00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:13.660 herd. Correct. That's the money coming in the 00:21:13.660 --> 00:21:15.319 front door. And now you're telling me the loss 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:17.460 from the inbreeding depression, the health issues, 00:21:17.660 --> 00:21:20.000 the fertility failure, the short lives, is $4 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:23.680 ,800 to $6 ,400 a year. Bingo. They cancel each 00:21:23.680 --> 00:21:25.519 other out. They cancel each other out. So let 00:21:25.519 --> 00:21:27.519 me get this straight. We are running the engine 00:21:27.519 --> 00:21:29.799 red hot. We are breeding faster than ever. We 00:21:29.799 --> 00:21:32.480 are getting more milk than ever. But the profit, 00:21:32.619 --> 00:21:36.880 the actual money left over, is leaking out the 00:21:36.880 --> 00:21:40.279 back door through vet bills, dead cows, and replacements. 00:21:40.480 --> 00:21:43.440 We are running just to stand still. That is the 00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:46.299 high cost of genetic blind spots. You are seeing 00:21:46.299 --> 00:21:49.240 the milk check go up, so you feel good. But you 00:21:49.240 --> 00:21:51.750 aren't seeing the inbreeding bill. because it 00:21:51.750 --> 00:21:53.910 doesn't come as a single invoice. Right. I don't 00:21:53.910 --> 00:21:55.789 get a bill from the Holstein Association saying 00:21:55.789 --> 00:21:59.289 you owe $6 ,000 for inbreeding. Exactly. It comes 00:21:59.289 --> 00:22:02.789 as a cow with metritis that costs you $300 to 00:22:02.789 --> 00:22:05.609 treat. It comes as a heifer that doesn't breed 00:22:05.609 --> 00:22:08.440 back and you have to color. It comes as a cow 00:22:08.440 --> 00:22:11.359 that dies of heat stress in August. It's death 00:22:11.359 --> 00:22:13.940 by a thousand cuts. You blame the weather, you 00:22:13.940 --> 00:22:16.960 blame the feed, but the root cause is the genetic 00:22:16.960 --> 00:22:19.599 load you built into the herd. That is. Well, 00:22:19.680 --> 00:22:21.319 that's depressing. I'm not going to lie. It makes 00:22:21.319 --> 00:22:23.380 you feel like you're on a treadmill. It is reality. 00:22:23.720 --> 00:22:25.799 But the good news is, now that we can measure 00:22:25.799 --> 00:22:27.500 it, we can manage it, we aren't helpless here. 00:22:28.490 --> 00:22:30.529 It requires changing how we look at the sire 00:22:30.529 --> 00:22:32.730 catalogs. Right. We have to stop chasing the 00:22:32.730 --> 00:22:34.910 shiny object, the highest number on the page. 00:22:35.170 --> 00:22:37.349 Let's get into the contrarian takes. Because 00:22:37.349 --> 00:22:40.890 looking at the December 2025 evaluations, there 00:22:40.890 --> 00:22:43.809 is a trap waiting for farmers. The rankings trap. 00:22:44.009 --> 00:22:47.430 22 of the top 30 net merit bulls came from one 00:22:47.430 --> 00:22:50.990 program, one breeding program. And I can hear 00:22:50.990 --> 00:22:52.490 the farmers right now saying, well, if they're 00:22:52.490 --> 00:22:54.529 the best, they're the best. I want the best bulls. 00:22:54.529 --> 00:22:56.230 Why should I care if they come from the same 00:22:56.230 --> 00:22:59.920 farm? Because best. is relative. If you use them 00:22:59.920 --> 00:23:03.019 all, you are creating a massive genetic bottleneck 00:23:03.019 --> 00:23:05.619 in your own tank. Those bulls are all related. 00:23:05.759 --> 00:23:07.880 They share the same sires, the same maternal 00:23:07.880 --> 00:23:10.359 grandsires. If you breed them to each other's 00:23:10.359 --> 00:23:13.079 daughters, you are doubling down on that inbreeding 00:23:13.079 --> 00:23:15.400 risk we just talked about. You are accelerating 00:23:15.400 --> 00:23:17.519 the leak. And this is where the difference between 00:23:17.519 --> 00:23:20.119 pedigree and reality comes in, because a lot 00:23:20.119 --> 00:23:22.099 of guys look at the pedigree and think they are 00:23:22.099 --> 00:23:24.680 safe. This is the technical part, but it's crucial. 00:23:24.940 --> 00:23:27.559 We used to calculate inbreeding based on pedigree. 00:23:27.799 --> 00:23:30.940 Who is the sire? Who is the dam? On paper, the 00:23:30.940 --> 00:23:33.619 pedigree inbreeding average is 0 .07. Looks low. 00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:36.559 Safe. But when you look at the genomic inbreeding, 00:23:36.599 --> 00:23:39.099 specifically using a tool called runs of homozygosity, 00:23:39.119 --> 00:23:43.200 or ROH, the number is 0 .17. It's more than double. 00:23:43.339 --> 00:23:46.099 Okay, you lost me at runs of homozygosity. Translate 00:23:46.099 --> 00:23:48.359 that into farmer English. Think of a pedigree 00:23:48.359 --> 00:23:50.859 like a family tree written in a Bible. He says, 00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:53.839 John Begatt, Steve. It assumes that because you're 00:23:53.839 --> 00:23:57.299 cousins or siblings, you share exactly a certain 00:23:57.299 --> 00:24:00.000 percentage of your DNA. It's an average. It's 00:24:00.000 --> 00:24:03.160 a guess. It's a mathematical estimate. But biology 00:24:03.160 --> 00:24:06.039 is messy. You might have inherited 20 % of your 00:24:06.039 --> 00:24:08.299 DNA from your grandfather, and your brother might 00:24:08.299 --> 00:24:11.400 have inherited only 2%, or you might have gotten 00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:15.339 the exact same chunk of DNA. Okay. ROH is like 00:24:15.339 --> 00:24:17.700 taking a blood test. It doesn't guess. It looks 00:24:17.700 --> 00:24:20.259 at the actual DNA strands. It looks for long 00:24:20.259 --> 00:24:23.160 stretches where the letters of the DNA are identical 00:24:23.160 --> 00:24:25.380 on both chromosomes, the one from the sire and 00:24:25.380 --> 00:24:27.900 the one from the dam. It stops guessing and starts 00:24:27.900 --> 00:24:30.720 measuring. So the pedigree is the map, but ROH 00:24:30.720 --> 00:24:32.839 is the satellite image showing the actual terrain. 00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:35.799 Exactly. And the satellite image shows that our 00:24:35.799 --> 00:24:38.099 cows are twice as inbred as the map says they 00:24:38.099 --> 00:24:40.740 are. So the paper is lying to you. If you are 00:24:40.740 --> 00:24:43.099 looking at ROH, you are flying blind. You think 00:24:43.099 --> 00:24:45.559 you are breeding an outcross, but genetically... 00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:48.640 those animals are far more related than you realize. 00:24:48.940 --> 00:24:50.920 This brings us to the David Diamond approach. 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:53.460 We talked about him in the pre -show. David is 00:24:53.460 --> 00:24:56.900 a breeder from AG3. Super sharp guy. His philosophy 00:24:56.900 --> 00:25:00.160 is consistency over unpredictability. Which sounds 00:25:00.160 --> 00:25:02.660 boring. Everyone wants the hot bull, the outlier. 00:25:02.779 --> 00:25:05.299 It does sound boring. But his strategy is that 00:25:05.299 --> 00:25:08.000 sometimes you pass on the highest component bull, 00:25:08.119 --> 00:25:12.099 the one that is plus 0 .20 % fat. to avoid the 00:25:12.099 --> 00:25:14.960 crash. You pass on the hot bull if he is frail 00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:17.259 or if he brings too much inbreeding load, you 00:25:17.259 --> 00:25:19.740 select for balanced functional genetics. He talks 00:25:19.740 --> 00:25:21.960 about the power of the second tier. Right. He 00:25:21.960 --> 00:25:24.559 doesn't just scan the top 10. He looks at bulls 00:25:24.559 --> 00:25:27.420 ranked 20th to 50th. Bulls that maybe give up 00:25:27.420 --> 00:25:29.700 50 points of net merit, but have zero holes. 00:25:29.859 --> 00:25:32.740 Yeah. Good udders, good feet, positive fertility, 00:25:33.039 --> 00:25:36.019 and crucially, an outcrossed pedigree. So you 00:25:36.019 --> 00:25:38.319 are trading a little bit of the sprint speed, 00:25:38.460 --> 00:25:41.240 that top -end theoretical profit, to ensure you 00:25:41.240 --> 00:25:43.660 actually finish the marathon. Exactly. Because 00:25:43.660 --> 00:25:45.779 if you win the sprint but your cow dies at age 00:25:45.779 --> 00:25:48.140 three, you lost money. I'd rather have a cow 00:25:48.140 --> 00:25:50.420 that is ranked 50th but lasts for five lactations 00:25:50.420 --> 00:25:52.400 than a cow ranked first that burns out in two. 00:25:52.680 --> 00:25:55.599 So we have identified the problem. We have scared 00:25:55.599 --> 00:25:57.759 everyone with the math. We have explained the 00:25:57.759 --> 00:26:00.420 biology. Now we have to help them fix it. Because 00:26:00.420 --> 00:26:02.180 if we just leave it here, people are going to 00:26:02.180 --> 00:26:04.140 turn off the podcast and go drink a beer in the 00:26:04.140 --> 00:26:06.910 dark. Let's get to the actionable insights. Imagine 00:26:06.910 --> 00:26:09.349 a farmer listening to this right now. They just 00:26:09.349 --> 00:26:11.490 finished milking. They're driving the pickup 00:26:11.490 --> 00:26:14.190 to the fee store. What do they need to do? I've 00:26:14.190 --> 00:26:17.410 got three things. Immediate, medium term, and 00:26:17.410 --> 00:26:19.910 long term. Let's start with immediate this week. 00:26:20.130 --> 00:26:22.269 The diversity audit. What does that look like? 00:26:22.430 --> 00:26:25.549 Call your genetics advisor or your AI rep, the 00:26:25.549 --> 00:26:28.230 guy who sells you the straws. Ask them for one 00:26:28.230 --> 00:26:32.569 specific number, the ROH -based genomic inbreeding 00:26:32.569 --> 00:26:35.559 for your herd. not the pedigree I'm breeding. 00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:37.740 No. If they give you the pedigree number, tell 00:26:37.740 --> 00:26:40.440 them to try again. Specifically ask for ROH. 00:26:40.619 --> 00:26:44.359 If that number is trending above 7 % to 8%, you 00:26:44.359 --> 00:26:46.319 are in the danger zone. You are in that territory 00:26:46.319 --> 00:26:48.799 where the leak is starting to gush. And if the 00:26:48.799 --> 00:26:51.700 rep says, oh, we don't track that, or that's 00:26:51.700 --> 00:26:53.779 not on the sheet. Then you need to push harder. 00:26:54.059 --> 00:26:57.220 Or find a rep who does. Because the data exists. 00:26:57.559 --> 00:26:59.740 If they aren't sharing it with you, they're keeping 00:26:59.740 --> 00:27:01.759 you in the dark. If you don't know that number 00:27:01.759 --> 00:27:03.839 before your next mating run, you're throwing 00:27:03.839 --> 00:27:06.000 darts in the dark. Okay, so get the real number. 00:27:06.099 --> 00:27:08.440 What's the medium -term strategy? Three to six 00:27:08.440 --> 00:27:11.039 months out. This is the heat hedge and the 2025 00:27:11.039 --> 00:27:13.759 NM now. Let's talk about the index first. The 00:27:13.759 --> 00:27:17.000 2025 net merit revision was a big deal. It rebalanced 00:27:17.000 --> 00:27:20.519 17 traits, but the big change was feed efficiency, 00:27:20.940 --> 00:27:25.740 FSAV. It now has a 17 .8 % emphasis. That is 00:27:25.740 --> 00:27:27.720 huge. That's almost a fifth of the index. It 00:27:27.720 --> 00:27:30.680 is. And here is the kicker. If your provider 00:27:30.680 --> 00:27:33.279 is still using old weightings, if they are optimizing 00:27:33.279 --> 00:27:35.940 for the 2020 formula, you are breeding for a 00:27:35.940 --> 00:27:37.779 merchant that doesn't exist anymore. You are 00:27:37.779 --> 00:27:40.119 breeding big, inefficient cows when the market 00:27:40.119 --> 00:27:42.519 is paying for efficiency. You need to be on the 00:27:42.519 --> 00:27:45.460 2025 standard. And the heatage. This goes back 00:27:45.460 --> 00:27:48.019 to the metabolic override. If you are in an area 00:27:48.019 --> 00:27:51.559 with 60 plus days of heat, THI 68, and be honest 00:27:51.559 --> 00:27:53.640 with yourself about that, you need to stop ignoring 00:27:53.640 --> 00:27:55.799 it. You might not see heat tolerance on the bull 00:27:55.799 --> 00:27:57.750 sheet directly. So what do you look for? You 00:27:57.750 --> 00:28:00.069 use proxies. You select for productive life, 00:28:00.230 --> 00:28:04.430 PL, livability, LIV, and fertility, DPR. Why 00:28:04.430 --> 00:28:07.410 those? Because a cow with high productive life 00:28:07.410 --> 00:28:10.529 and high livability is, by definition, a survivor. 00:28:11.009 --> 00:28:13.410 She is a cow that doesn't die when it gets hot. 00:28:13.529 --> 00:28:16.390 She is a cow that handles stress. You might sacrifice 00:28:16.390 --> 00:28:18.390 a little bit of top -end milk, but remember, 00:28:18.529 --> 00:28:21.289 the metabolic override. You want a survivor, 00:28:21.369 --> 00:28:23.809 not a zombie, that milks until she drocks. Okay, 00:28:23.869 --> 00:28:26.660 and finally, the long -term positioning. one 00:28:26.660 --> 00:28:29.619 to two years out? Diversify and contribute. Diversify. 00:28:29.880 --> 00:28:32.240 Don't load the tank from one source. I don't 00:28:32.240 --> 00:28:34.319 care how good the bulls are. I don't care if 00:28:34.319 --> 00:28:36.259 they're the top five in the world. If they're 00:28:36.259 --> 00:28:38.480 all from the same program, spread your risk. 00:28:38.859 --> 00:28:41.700 Use at least three AI organizations. Like an 00:28:41.700 --> 00:28:43.660 investment portfolio. You wouldn't put 100 % 00:28:43.660 --> 00:28:45.980 of your 401k into one stock, even if that stock 00:28:45.980 --> 00:28:49.059 was Apple. Exactly. If that one stock crashes, 00:28:49.200 --> 00:28:51.480 if that one bloodline turns out to have a genetic 00:28:51.480 --> 00:28:54.319 defect we haven't found yet, like HCD or CVM 00:28:54.319 --> 00:28:57.170 back in the day, You are wiped out. Spread the 00:28:57.170 --> 00:28:59.769 risk. And the contribute part. Data. We need 00:28:59.769 --> 00:29:03.109 data. If you have AMS, robotic milking, if you 00:29:03.109 --> 00:29:05.329 have activity monitors, if you have health records, 00:29:05.490 --> 00:29:08.230 share that data. Contribute it to the Council 00:29:08.230 --> 00:29:10.869 on Dairy Cattle Braiding, CTCB. Why should a 00:29:10.869 --> 00:29:13.450 farmer bother? Because that is how we stop the 00:29:13.450 --> 00:29:16.029 next hitchhiking gene. The only reason we found 00:29:16.029 --> 00:29:18.589 the fertility crash is because we had data. The 00:29:18.589 --> 00:29:20.849 only reason we know about heat stress is data. 00:29:21.009 --> 00:29:23.269 The only way we find the next problem in five 00:29:23.269 --> 00:29:26.029 years instead of 20 years is if we have the numbers. 00:29:26.390 --> 00:29:28.970 So don't just be a consumer of genetics. Be a 00:29:28.970 --> 00:29:31.509 contributor to the system. That protects your 00:29:31.509 --> 00:29:34.630 future. Exactly. This has been intense. We covered 00:29:34.630 --> 00:29:36.910 a lot of ground. From Missy and the snowstorm 00:29:36.910 --> 00:29:39.509 to the heat stress in Alabama to the math of 00:29:39.509 --> 00:29:42.019 inbreeding. It's a complex topic, but if I had 00:29:42.019 --> 00:29:44.200 to boil it down to one sentence, fast is good. 00:29:44.279 --> 00:29:47.500 We love fast. But durable is better. Durable 00:29:47.500 --> 00:29:50.400 is profit. And check your leak. Don't let inbreeding 00:29:50.400 --> 00:29:52.500 depression steal the money you worked so hard 00:29:52.500 --> 00:29:54.500 to breed for. That is the thought we will leave 00:29:54.500 --> 00:29:56.880 you with. Don't let the blind spots empty your 00:29:56.880 --> 00:29:59.359 bulk tank. This has been another Bullvine podcast 00:29:59.359 --> 00:30:02.240 from The Bullvine. For more straight -talking 00:30:02.240 --> 00:30:04.599 industry analysis and to read the full article 00:30:04.599 --> 00:30:08.220 we discussed today, head over to www .thebullvine 00:30:08.220 --> 00:30:11.029 .com. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. 00:30:11.849 --> 00:30:14.990 We are out with new episodes every day. Upcoming 00:30:14.990 --> 00:30:17.849 topics will be, well, let's just say we are going 00:30:17.849 --> 00:30:19.650 to look at why your feed nutritionist might be 00:30:19.650 --> 00:30:21.849 lying to you about amino acids. But that's for 00:30:21.849 --> 00:30:23.470 next time. I can't wait for that one. That's 00:30:23.470 --> 00:30:25.690 going to ruffle some feathers. Until then, keep 00:30:25.690 --> 00:30:28.130 your eyes open and check those blind spots. Thanks 00:30:28.130 --> 00:30:28.509 for listening.