WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:03.850 we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast. 00:01:04.329 --> 00:01:07.569 The No BS Zone for Dairy Insights. Exactly. This 00:01:07.569 --> 00:01:10.329 is the place where we try to cut through all 00:01:10.329 --> 00:01:13.109 the noise, the PR releases, the industry fluff, 00:01:13.390 --> 00:01:16.329 all of it to get you the insights that actually 00:01:16.329 --> 00:01:18.510 matter for your operation. Right. If you're listening 00:01:18.510 --> 00:01:20.950 to this, chances are you're in the cab of a tractor 00:01:20.950 --> 00:01:23.939 or maybe you're in the office. Staring at a milk 00:01:23.939 --> 00:01:26.519 check that just doesn't look quite right. Either 00:01:26.519 --> 00:01:29.540 way, you're in the right place. This is the No 00:01:29.540 --> 00:01:31.500 BS Zone. That's right. We're not here to tell 00:01:31.500 --> 00:01:33.840 you everything is sunny when it's, you know, 00:01:33.840 --> 00:01:36.579 pouring rain outside. We are here to look at 00:01:36.579 --> 00:01:38.700 the bottom line. Yeah. To question the hype. 00:01:38.840 --> 00:01:41.920 Yeah. And to figure out how to keep the lights 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:45.079 on and the cows fed. Exactly. And today we are 00:01:45.079 --> 00:01:48.959 doing a deep dive into a feature piece that it 00:01:48.959 --> 00:01:50.959 hit my desk earlier this week. And honestly, 00:01:51.079 --> 00:01:53.019 it kept me up at night. Oh, yeah. The title is 00:01:53.019 --> 00:01:55.780 The Vanishing Frontier, North Dakota's Dairy 00:01:55.780 --> 00:01:58.640 Processing Collapse. The Vanishing Frontier. 00:01:58.980 --> 00:02:01.920 Wow. That sounds like a history lesson about 00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:04.379 the Wild West or something. It does, right? Yeah, 00:02:04.420 --> 00:02:06.280 like we're going to talk about wagon trains and 00:02:06.280 --> 00:02:08.199 dysentery. No, it sounds like some documentary 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:10.000 on the History Channel, but let me correct you 00:02:10.000 --> 00:02:11.759 on that immediately. This is not a history lesson. 00:02:11.979 --> 00:02:15.360 Okay. This is a diagnostic tool for every single 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:18.120 dairy farmer in America. I don't care if you're 00:02:18.120 --> 00:02:21.500 in North Dakota. Wisconsin, Texas, or New York, 00:02:21.639 --> 00:02:24.120 this matters. Okay, so play devil's advocate 00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:27.979 here for a second. Why does a farmer mulking, 00:02:27.979 --> 00:02:31.340 say, 500 cows in upstate New York care what's 00:02:31.340 --> 00:02:33.699 happening in North Dakota? It feels a world away. 00:02:34.039 --> 00:02:36.620 Because what's happening in North Dakota right 00:02:36.620 --> 00:02:39.460 now, and I mean right now, this week, Thursday, 00:02:39.759 --> 00:02:44.800 February 12th, 2026. It is a blueprint of structural 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:47.639 failure. Oh, blueprint. It's a collapse of infrastructure 00:02:47.639 --> 00:02:51.699 that serves as a big flashing warning light on 00:02:51.699 --> 00:02:53.840 the dashboard for the entire industry. It's about 00:02:53.840 --> 00:02:56.439 physics. Physics. Yeah, the physics of milk movement 00:02:56.439 --> 00:02:59.520 and processing. And those physics, they apply 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:02.240 absolutely everywhere. All right, let's set the 00:03:02.240 --> 00:03:03.759 stakes here then, because I read through this 00:03:03.759 --> 00:03:06.629 report and the numbers are... Well, they're terrifying. 00:03:06.889 --> 00:03:09.090 We are talking about a state that went from having 00:03:09.090 --> 00:03:15.710 0 ,810 dairy farms in 1987 to just 18 grade A 00:03:15.710 --> 00:03:18.610 dairies today. 18? Just let that sink in for 00:03:18.610 --> 00:03:21.990 a second. From over 1 ,800? down to 18. That 00:03:21.990 --> 00:03:25.310 is a 99 % collapse. It is. That's not a decline. 00:03:25.389 --> 00:03:27.650 That's not a market correction. That is an extinction 00:03:27.650 --> 00:03:29.969 event. It is. That's the meteor hitting the pasture. 00:03:30.129 --> 00:03:31.789 It really is. And the reason we're talking about 00:03:31.789 --> 00:03:34.789 it isn't to mourn the past. It's because the 00:03:34.789 --> 00:03:37.050 source material makes a very, very provocative 00:03:37.050 --> 00:03:40.729 point. It argues that you can be a top tier manager 00:03:40.729 --> 00:03:42.909 inside the fence. You can have the best genetics, 00:03:43.050 --> 00:03:45.830 the best fee efficiency, perfect protocols. But 00:03:45.830 --> 00:03:49.060 if the outside the fence structure breaks. The 00:03:49.060 --> 00:03:51.219 processing, the hauling. Exactly. If that breaks, 00:03:51.439 --> 00:03:55.439 you are still doomed. That is a hard pill to 00:03:55.439 --> 00:03:57.719 swallow. We're taught from the time we're in 00:03:57.719 --> 00:03:59.659 4 -H that if you work harder, you'll make it. 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:01.439 If you manage better, if you get up earlier than 00:04:01.439 --> 00:04:04.340 the neighbor, you survive. We believe in the 00:04:04.340 --> 00:04:07.340 meritocracy of the barn. And today, we are going 00:04:07.340 --> 00:04:09.960 to dismantle that myth. We're going to look at 00:04:09.960 --> 00:04:12.780 why working harder is no longer the answer when 00:04:12.780 --> 00:04:15.789 the map itself changes against you. Okay. So 00:04:15.789 --> 00:04:17.670 let's get into it. Where do we start? Let's start 00:04:17.670 --> 00:04:19.970 with the raw data, the timeline of this crash. 00:04:20.250 --> 00:04:23.569 Yeah, lay it out. You said 8 ,810 farms in 1987. 00:04:24.029 --> 00:04:26.470 That feels like a lifetime ago. It does. And, 00:04:26.569 --> 00:04:29.209 you know, by 2022, that number had already dropped 00:04:29.209 --> 00:04:31.829 to 107. Which is already a huge drop. That's 00:04:31.829 --> 00:04:33.509 sort of what we've seen everywhere with consolidation, 00:04:33.790 --> 00:04:35.769 right? Right, that's a familiar story. But the 00:04:35.769 --> 00:04:38.029 really scary part is the acceleration at the 00:04:38.029 --> 00:04:43.000 very end. From 107 in 2022... to just 18 in early 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:46.899 2026 whoa wait so in the last four years basically 00:04:46.899 --> 00:04:49.199 in the last four years that's that's a free fall 00:04:49.199 --> 00:04:53.600 that's losing nearly 90 of what was left in just 00:04:53.600 --> 00:04:56.439 48 months precisely and to put a human face on 00:04:56.439 --> 00:04:58.259 this because it's not just numbers on a page 00:04:58.259 --> 00:05:01.579 the article focuses on the hola family They run 00:05:01.579 --> 00:05:03.959 Northern Lights Dairy near Mandon, North Dakota. 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:05.819 Right. And this is important. Northern Lights 00:05:05.819 --> 00:05:08.079 isn't some small hobby farm. This isn't a guy 00:05:08.079 --> 00:05:10.860 milking 40 cows in a tie stall barn from 1950 00:05:10.860 --> 00:05:14.019 with a bucket. Not at all. This is a 1 ,000 cow 00:05:14.019 --> 00:05:16.500 operation. It's fifth generation. They are high 00:05:16.500 --> 00:05:18.740 tech. I mean, they're using fiber -connected 00:05:18.740 --> 00:05:21.540 monitoring technology on their entire herd. Jennifer 00:05:21.540 --> 00:05:24.480 Hall, she's the calving manager. She oversees... 00:05:24.759 --> 00:05:27.139 Three to four bursts a day, sometimes up to 15. 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:29.939 So they're dialed in. They are modern, efficient, 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:32.240 and they know what they are doing. They are doing 00:05:32.240 --> 00:05:34.699 everything that consultants, the magazines, everyone 00:05:34.699 --> 00:05:37.259 tells you to do. But here's the crisis. Here's 00:05:37.259 --> 00:05:39.819 the crisis. Because the local processing capacity 00:05:39.819 --> 00:05:44.259 has just evaporated. They are currently hauling 00:05:44.259 --> 00:05:48.240 their milk five hours, one way to Perham, Minnesota. 00:05:48.459 --> 00:05:52.839 Five hours, one way. Every truck, multiple times 00:05:52.839 --> 00:05:55.689 a day. Can you imagine the logistics of that? 00:05:55.850 --> 00:05:58.029 I can't. I really can't. I mean, just start with 00:05:58.029 --> 00:06:00.850 the basics. The fuel costs alone have got to 00:06:00.850 --> 00:06:02.589 be astronomical. Forget about it. This is where 00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:04.790 I tear on the trucks. You're putting thousands 00:06:04.790 --> 00:06:07.089 of miles on them every single week. And driver 00:06:07.089 --> 00:06:10.209 retention. Oh, good luck. Try to find guys willing 00:06:10.209 --> 00:06:12.670 to make that 10 -hour round trip run every single 00:06:12.670 --> 00:06:15.970 day, day in, day out. You are essentially... 00:06:16.609 --> 00:06:20.410 hauling water across state lines for five hours 00:06:20.410 --> 00:06:22.990 just to find a home for it. Your profit margin 00:06:22.990 --> 00:06:25.790 is just, it's burning up on the interstate. It 00:06:25.790 --> 00:06:28.170 is. And that leads to the quote from the halls 00:06:28.170 --> 00:06:30.930 that really just chilled me. They told a reporter, 00:06:31.009 --> 00:06:34.250 and this is a direct quote, we don't know what 00:06:34.250 --> 00:06:38.829 we're going to do. Wow. That hits hard. It does. 00:06:39.069 --> 00:06:42.189 When you have a 1 ,000 cow dairy, a family legacy 00:06:42.189 --> 00:06:44.449 going back generations, all the technology in 00:06:44.449 --> 00:06:46.829 the world, and your honest answer is, I don't 00:06:46.829 --> 00:06:49.810 know. That tells you the system is broken. That's 00:06:49.810 --> 00:06:51.769 not a failure of management. That is a failure 00:06:51.769 --> 00:06:54.009 of the map. A failure of the map. That is the 00:06:54.009 --> 00:06:56.209 perfect way to put it. And it brings us to our 00:06:56.209 --> 00:06:59.379 first... Major concept for this deep dive, the 00:06:59.379 --> 00:07:02.199 good manager myth. Yeah. Let's unpack this because 00:07:02.199 --> 00:07:04.300 in the coffee shop, the talk is always, well, 00:07:04.360 --> 00:07:06.319 if he went under, he must not have been watching 00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:09.579 his inputs or he over leveraged on that new track. 00:07:09.639 --> 00:07:12.220 We love to blame the guy who failed. We do. We 00:07:12.220 --> 00:07:14.000 love to blame the individual because, you know, 00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:16.540 it makes us feel safe. If failure is a choice, 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:19.579 then success must also be a choice. Right. That 00:07:19.579 --> 00:07:21.480 won't happen to me because I'm smarter. Exactly. 00:07:22.040 --> 00:07:24.379 But the bull bind analysis here really challenges 00:07:24.379 --> 00:07:27.079 that. It separates the business into two distinct 00:07:27.079 --> 00:07:30.100 zones, inside the fence and outside the fence. 00:07:30.279 --> 00:07:32.300 Okay, lay it out. So inside the fence is what 00:07:32.300 --> 00:07:35.699 we control. Precisely. Inside the fence. is genetics 00:07:35.699 --> 00:07:39.040 it's your feed efficiency it's cow comfort it's 00:07:39.040 --> 00:07:41.459 your labor protocols it's keeping your somatic 00:07:41.459 --> 00:07:44.240 cell count low it's getting cows bred back on 00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:47.100 time all the stuff we spend 99 of our time thinking 00:07:47.100 --> 00:07:50.319 about the day -to -day and the hollis they are 00:07:50.319 --> 00:07:52.600 crushing it inside the fence they are by all 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:54.839 accounts doing everything right but outside the 00:07:54.839 --> 00:07:57.939 fence that's the wild west That's the stuff that 00:07:57.939 --> 00:08:00.639 happens to you, not by you. Outside the fence 00:08:00.639 --> 00:08:03.540 is your basis. It's plant closures. It's make 00:08:03.540 --> 00:08:06.639 allowance hikes from the USDA. It's route economics. 00:08:06.720 --> 00:08:09.339 It's federal policy. The stuff that feels completely 00:08:09.339 --> 00:08:11.600 out of your hands. And the argument here, the 00:08:11.600 --> 00:08:14.160 core argument, is that you cannot breed your 00:08:14.160 --> 00:08:16.360 way to cheaper diesel. I love that line. You 00:08:16.360 --> 00:08:18.259 can't breed your way to cheaper diesel. That 00:08:18.259 --> 00:08:20.019 says it all. You can have the highest producing 00:08:20.019 --> 00:08:23.060 cows in the county pushing 100, 110 pounds a 00:08:23.060 --> 00:08:25.790 day. But if the truck has to drive 300 miles 00:08:25.790 --> 00:08:28.649 one way, that efficiency is gone. It's just, 00:08:28.689 --> 00:08:31.069 it's eaten up by the asphalt. It evaporates. 00:08:31.110 --> 00:08:33.710 And we saw this happen in real time in North 00:08:33.710 --> 00:08:36.149 Dakota with the plant closures. This is the timeline 00:08:36.149 --> 00:08:38.269 that broke the state's back. Okay, walk us through 00:08:38.269 --> 00:08:41.529 it. In September 2023, Prairie Farms in Bismarck 00:08:41.529 --> 00:08:43.570 closed their processing facility. That was a 00:08:43.570 --> 00:08:45.210 big one. That was the main class I destination 00:08:45.210 --> 00:08:49.049 for a huge chunk of the state, central and western 00:08:49.049 --> 00:08:51.509 North Dakota. It was the anchor. Yeah. And when 00:08:51.509 --> 00:08:54.399 that... It was like the anchor just came loose. 00:08:54.500 --> 00:08:57.299 It converted to a distribution only facility. 00:08:57.500 --> 00:09:00.100 So suddenly there's nowhere for that fluid milk 00:09:00.100 --> 00:09:03.059 to go locally. Then it gets worse. Of course 00:09:03.059 --> 00:09:05.379 it does. Less than a year later, August 2024, 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:09.720 DFA closes the Pollock, South Dakota plant. And 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:11.820 that was the backup. That was plan B for a lot 00:09:11.820 --> 00:09:13.500 of those farms. That was the backup. So now you 00:09:13.500 --> 00:09:16.139 have no primary and you have no backup. The result, 00:09:16.340 --> 00:09:20.529 milk that used to travel. maybe dozens of miles, 00:09:20.649 --> 00:09:22.830 is now traveling hundreds. Yeah, there was another 00:09:22.830 --> 00:09:24.629 example in the source about a producer named 00:09:24.629 --> 00:09:28.330 Hank. When Prairie Farms closed, his milk got 00:09:28.330 --> 00:09:31.929 rerouted 151 miles down to Pollock. Before Pollock 00:09:31.929 --> 00:09:33.950 closed. Right, before Pollock closed. And that 00:09:33.950 --> 00:09:36.970 came with an immediate surcharge, 55 cents per 00:09:36.970 --> 00:09:40.950 hundredweight. 55 cents, just gone with the snap 00:09:40.950 --> 00:09:43.850 of a finger. That is pure margin destruction. 00:09:44.190 --> 00:09:46.669 Absolutely. And it gets worse. Yeah. He had to 00:09:46.669 --> 00:09:50.259 buy... brand new bulk tank just to survive the 00:09:50.259 --> 00:09:52.259 new schedule changes because it couldn't pick 00:09:52.259 --> 00:09:54.220 him up as often. So he had to spend capital. 00:09:54.320 --> 00:09:55.899 He had to spend tens of thousands of dollars 00:09:55.899 --> 00:09:59.600 on capital just to make less money. That is the 00:09:59.600 --> 00:10:02.399 definition of a bad business move, but he had 00:10:02.399 --> 00:10:05.139 no choice. It's investing in survival, not growth. 00:10:05.340 --> 00:10:07.679 And this brings us to the segment of the discussion 00:10:07.679 --> 00:10:10.000 where we have to follow the money. We need to 00:10:10.000 --> 00:10:12.679 talk about the geography penalty. It's a real 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:15.330 penalty. The data shows that hauling charges 00:10:15.330 --> 00:10:18.970 in the upper Midwest jumped 30 percent. 30 percent. 00:10:19.070 --> 00:10:23.110 2023 to 2024. The average is now nearly 80 cents 00:10:23.110 --> 00:10:24.649 per hundred weight. And we have to be clear, 00:10:24.690 --> 00:10:26.889 that's the average. Averages lie. Yeah, they 00:10:26.889 --> 00:10:29.450 do. North Dakota has the highest hauling charge 00:10:29.450 --> 00:10:33.519 in all of Federal Order 30. If you are the halls 00:10:33.519 --> 00:10:36.519 hauling five hours to Minnesota, you are way, 00:10:36.519 --> 00:10:38.279 way above that average. Oh, you're not paying 00:10:38.279 --> 00:10:40.860 80 cents. You might be looking at $1 .50, maybe 00:10:40.860 --> 00:10:43.500 $2 hauling. Easily. And it creates a negative 00:10:43.500 --> 00:10:46.019 basis that you just can't climb out of. You're 00:10:46.019 --> 00:10:48.559 starting the race 10 yards behind everyone else 00:10:48.559 --> 00:10:51.620 every single month. Your neighbor down in Wisconsin 00:10:51.620 --> 00:10:54.379 or Michigan might be paying 50 cents and you're 00:10:54.379 --> 00:10:56.500 paying triple that. You can't outmanage that 00:10:56.500 --> 00:10:59.259 spread. Impossible. And then just to, you know. 00:10:59.769 --> 00:11:02.009 kick you while you were down. We have to talk 00:11:02.009 --> 00:11:05.210 about make allowances. Oh, boy. The regulatory 00:11:05.210 --> 00:11:07.549 hit. This is the stuff that makes farmers eyes 00:11:07.549 --> 00:11:11.009 glaze over. But it's literally picking your pocket 00:11:11.009 --> 00:11:13.429 every single day. It is. So this happened back 00:11:13.429 --> 00:11:17.230 in June 2025. The USDA adjusted the make allowances. 00:11:17.289 --> 00:11:19.409 And let's just break that down real simple. It's 00:11:19.409 --> 00:11:21.549 basically the credit processors get to cover 00:11:21.549 --> 00:11:24.190 their costs of turning milk into cheese, butter 00:11:24.190 --> 00:11:26.809 or powder. Right. And let's be crystal clear 00:11:26.809 --> 00:11:29.139 on this. When the processor gets a bigger allowance, 00:11:29.460 --> 00:11:32.059 the farmer gets a smaller check. It's a zero 00:11:32.059 --> 00:11:34.379 -sum game within the pricing formula. Exactly. 00:11:34.379 --> 00:11:38.200 So the cheesemake allowance went up 25 .8%. Wow. 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:44.179 Butter, up 32 .5%. And powder, up... A staggering 00:11:44.179 --> 00:11:47.980 42 .6%. That is massive. That's not an adjustment. 00:11:48.419 --> 00:11:51.539 That is a fundamental shift of wealth from the 00:11:51.539 --> 00:11:53.879 farm gate to the processing plant. It is. And 00:11:53.879 --> 00:11:56.340 the impact, the bottom line impact, is that it 00:11:56.340 --> 00:11:59.220 directly reduces the Class 3 price paid to farmers. 00:11:59.379 --> 00:12:02.559 And remember, in January 2026, the Class 3 price 00:12:02.559 --> 00:12:06.340 was already low. It was $14 .59. So you take 00:12:06.340 --> 00:12:08.200 a low price, you subtract a higher make allowance, 00:12:08.379 --> 00:12:10.059 and then you subtract a massive hauling fee. 00:12:10.299 --> 00:12:13.120 Yeah. What is left? Dust. Red ink. Yeah. That's 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:15.000 what's left. You are paying for the privilege 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.779 of milking cows. And that leads us to the next 00:12:17.779 --> 00:12:20.200 big data point, the scale gap. This is another 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.480 set of numbers from the USDA that we really need 00:12:22.480 --> 00:12:25.419 to highlight because it's brutal. This is the 00:12:25.419 --> 00:12:27.000 part of the show that usually makes the small 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:29.039 guys turn off the radio, but don't. You need 00:12:29.039 --> 00:12:31.240 to hear this. The math does not care about your 00:12:31.240 --> 00:12:33.399 feelings. It does not. Herds with fewer than 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:36.259 50 cows have a total economic production cost 00:12:36.259 --> 00:12:42.299 of $42 .70 per hundredweight. $42 .70 for a product 00:12:42.299 --> 00:12:45.179 you're maybe getting $15 for. Right. Now, herds 00:12:45.179 --> 00:12:48.340 with more than 2 ,000 cows, their production 00:12:48.340 --> 00:12:52.960 cost is $19 .14. That is a gap. Just do the math. 00:12:53.019 --> 00:12:57.720 That's a gap of $23 .56 per hundredweight. $23. 00:12:58.019 --> 00:13:01.440 Yeah. That gap is wider than the entire profit 00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:04.779 margin for most farms, even in a boom year. It 00:13:04.779 --> 00:13:06.700 is impossible to compete with that kind of spread 00:13:06.700 --> 00:13:09.299 if you are purely a commodity producer. You're 00:13:09.299 --> 00:13:10.759 not just playing a different game. You're playing 00:13:10.759 --> 00:13:12.460 a different sport on a different planet. You 00:13:12.460 --> 00:13:14.299 really are. And the profitability stats, they 00:13:14.299 --> 00:13:17.279 back it up completely. The source says 89 % of 00:13:17.279 --> 00:13:19.620 dairies with over 1 ,000 cows usually report 00:13:19.620 --> 00:13:22.360 positive net returns. Okay, so nearly 9 out of 00:13:22.360 --> 00:13:24.529 10 are in the black. Compare that to herds with 00:13:24.529 --> 00:13:27.049 fewer than 100 cows. Only 11 % of them report 00:13:27.049 --> 00:13:29.970 positive returns. 11%. So basically, if you were 00:13:29.970 --> 00:13:33.029 small, you are statistically very likely to be 00:13:33.029 --> 00:13:36.190 losing equity every year. And if you are big, 00:13:36.389 --> 00:13:38.889 you are statistically likely to be building it. 00:13:38.970 --> 00:13:41.710 That is what drives consolidation more than anything 00:13:41.710 --> 00:13:45.210 else. It's not a conspiracy. No. It's just economies 00:13:45.210 --> 00:13:48.350 of scale on steroids. So we have identified the 00:13:48.350 --> 00:13:51.399 problem. The infrastructure collapsed. The cost 00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:54.559 skyrocketed. The regulatory environment got tougher. 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:58.639 But some people are still milking cows in North 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:02.139 Dakota. The survivors. Let's talk about them. 00:14:02.220 --> 00:14:05.320 The article outlines three basic models for survival 00:14:05.320 --> 00:14:07.860 in this new reality. Right. And survivor model 00:14:07.860 --> 00:14:11.659 number one is the scaled conventional. That's 00:14:11.659 --> 00:14:13.500 the halls. The ones we've been talking about. 00:14:13.700 --> 00:14:16.080 And as we said, they're hanging on by a thread. 00:14:16.519 --> 00:14:18.700 Or, as the article puts it, hanging on by the 00:14:18.700 --> 00:14:20.759 freight bill. They're doing everything right 00:14:20.759 --> 00:14:22.779 inside the fence, but they're on the wrong zip 00:14:22.779 --> 00:14:24.279 code. They're on the wrong side of the map. They 00:14:24.279 --> 00:14:26.220 looked at on -farm processing. That's usually 00:14:26.220 --> 00:14:28.340 the first thing people say, right? Oh, just bottle 00:14:28.340 --> 00:14:30.460 your own milk. Cut out the middleman. Just build 00:14:30.460 --> 00:14:32.759 a plant like it's a shed. Right. Just put up 00:14:32.759 --> 00:14:35.360 a few walls and, you know, start bottling. It's 00:14:35.360 --> 00:14:38.100 so naive. It is. The Hollas, they actually looked 00:14:38.100 --> 00:14:40.639 at it. They researched it. And their conclusion 00:14:40.639 --> 00:14:43.679 was that it was extremely expensive. I bet it 00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:46.460 was. The state of North Dakota, to their credit, 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:50.019 they have some grants. There's Senate Bill 2342, 00:14:50.360 --> 00:14:53.940 but the cap on it is $10 million. Which sounds 00:14:53.940 --> 00:14:56.240 like a lot of money to a regular person. It sounds 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:58.639 like a fortune. But in the world of modern dairy 00:14:58.639 --> 00:15:01.480 processing, $10 million. Yeah. That's nothing. 00:15:01.539 --> 00:15:03.500 That's the parking lot and the foundation, maybe. 00:15:03.580 --> 00:15:07.059 It's only 5 % of the cost for a major efficient 00:15:07.059 --> 00:15:09.039 facility. So it doesn't even move the needle. 00:15:09.220 --> 00:15:11.519 It doesn't bridge the gap. So the Hollas are 00:15:11.519 --> 00:15:13.940 stuck in this limbo. They're too big to be a 00:15:13.940 --> 00:15:16.379 small niche hobby farm, but they're completely 00:15:16.379 --> 00:15:18.860 isolated from the industrial processing corridor. 00:15:19.220 --> 00:15:21.600 Which brings us directly to survivor model number 00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:25.399 two, the industrial entrant. And this is Riverview 00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:28.580 LLP. Right. Now, this can be a controversial 00:15:28.580 --> 00:15:31.299 topic for some, but we have to look at it objectively 00:15:31.299 --> 00:15:34.200 from a business standpoint. You have to. Riverview 00:15:34.200 --> 00:15:36.899 is a different beast entirely. They're based 00:15:36.899 --> 00:15:38.840 in Morris, Minnesota, but they are developing 00:15:38.840 --> 00:15:41.620 two massive new sites in eastern North Dakota. 00:15:42.059 --> 00:15:43.860 And when you say massive, you mean? We're talking 00:15:43.860 --> 00:15:47.720 a 25 ,000 head facility and another 12 ,500 head 00:15:47.720 --> 00:15:51.200 facility. 25 ,000 heads, that is a city of cows. 00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:53.919 It is. It's an industrial operation. And the 00:15:53.919 --> 00:15:57.519 investment is around $270 million. But here's 00:15:57.519 --> 00:16:00.580 the key. Notice where they are building. Eastern 00:16:00.580 --> 00:16:03.679 North Dakota. Right on the I -29 corridor. They 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.000 are not building out in the processing desert 00:16:06.000 --> 00:16:09.039 where the Hollies are. Not a chance. They are 00:16:09.039 --> 00:16:10.860 building specifically where they can integrate 00:16:10.860 --> 00:16:13.960 with the existing processing corridor. These 00:16:13.960 --> 00:16:16.159 aren't family farms in the traditional sense. 00:16:16.419 --> 00:16:19.320 They are industrial units designed from the ground 00:16:19.320 --> 00:16:22.440 up to fit the outside -the -fence math perfectly. 00:16:22.740 --> 00:16:25.419 They have the scale to demand better freight 00:16:25.419 --> 00:16:27.980 rates. Or even own their own trucking. They have 00:16:27.980 --> 00:16:30.399 the volume to negotiate with processors from 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:32.929 a position of strength. They fit the structural 00:16:32.929 --> 00:16:35.210 reality. They aren't victims of the geography. 00:16:35.470 --> 00:16:37.590 They are leveraging it. Exactly. They're not 00:16:37.590 --> 00:16:39.509 just showing up to the party. They are bringing 00:16:39.509 --> 00:16:41.750 their own ecosystem with them. Right. Then there's 00:16:41.750 --> 00:16:44.710 survivor model number three, the niche. The direct 00:16:44.710 --> 00:16:47.110 -to -consumer crowd. The homesteaders, you could 00:16:47.110 --> 00:16:49.389 almost call them. North Dakota passed a bill, 00:16:49.490 --> 00:16:52.789 House Bill 1515, which allows for the sale of 00:16:52.789 --> 00:16:55.750 raw milk directly from the farm. And the article 00:16:55.750 --> 00:16:58.789 says there are about 23 farms doing this now. 00:16:59.009 --> 00:17:01.210 And look, it works for them. They completely 00:17:01.210 --> 00:17:03.990 bypass the federal pricing system. They bypass 00:17:03.990 --> 00:17:06.930 the freight costs. They set their own price and 00:17:06.930 --> 00:17:08.890 sell it directly to a neighbor who wants raw 00:17:08.890 --> 00:17:12.430 milk. It's a closed loop. But, and I have to 00:17:12.430 --> 00:17:15.730 be the skeptic here, is this a solution for the 00:17:15.730 --> 00:17:19.339 industry? No. Absolutely not. It's a wonderful 00:17:19.339 --> 00:17:22.180 solution for 23 families. Maybe it'll be a solution 00:17:22.180 --> 00:17:25.019 for 50 families eventually. But you cannot process 00:17:25.019 --> 00:17:27.220 the volume of milk the United States produces 00:17:27.220 --> 00:17:29.900 by selling raw milk out of the back of a barn. 00:17:30.140 --> 00:17:32.839 It's a lifeboat, not a cruise ship. That is a 00:17:32.839 --> 00:17:34.839 great analogy. It saves a few people who are 00:17:34.839 --> 00:17:37.259 in the water, but it doesn't save the fleet. 00:17:37.380 --> 00:17:39.779 It's not a systemic fix for the vanishing frontier. 00:17:39.940 --> 00:17:42.339 Not even close. So we've looked at North Dakota 00:17:42.339 --> 00:17:44.779 in a microscope, but I know listeners in Wisconsin, 00:17:45.099 --> 00:17:46.759 Pennsylvania, New York, they're thinking, well, 00:17:46.819 --> 00:17:48.920 that's sad for them, but I'm fine. I've got three 00:17:48.920 --> 00:17:51.539 plants within 50 miles of my farm. Right. That's 00:17:51.539 --> 00:17:54.519 a North Dakota problem. And that is the dangerous 00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:57.140 thinking we need to correct right now. Let's 00:17:57.140 --> 00:17:58.640 zoom out to the future implications. This is 00:17:58.640 --> 00:18:00.839 not just a North Dakota story. No, it is not. 00:18:00.940 --> 00:18:03.599 Look at Wisconsin, America's dairy land. They 00:18:03.599 --> 00:18:05.819 lost nearly half their dairy farms in a single 00:18:05.819 --> 00:18:08.460 decade. Half. In the heart of dairy country. 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:12.279 The U .S. as a whole lost about 15 ,800 farms 00:18:12.279 --> 00:18:15.920 between 2017 and 2022. Which is a staggering 00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:18.099 number. But then it got worse. We lost another 00:18:18.099 --> 00:18:22.200 8 ,400 between 2022 and 2025. The trend line 00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:24.680 is clear. It's not flattening out. It's getting 00:18:24.680 --> 00:18:27.099 steeper. It's accelerating. And there's another 00:18:27.099 --> 00:18:28.680 technical term we have to touch on that's making 00:18:28.680 --> 00:18:31.619 this worse, and that's depooling. Ugh, yeah. 00:18:31.980 --> 00:18:33.460 It's another one of those things that sounds 00:18:33.460 --> 00:18:35.380 complicated, but it hurts your wallet directly. 00:18:35.740 --> 00:18:38.079 Very directly. When the price spread between 00:18:38.079 --> 00:18:40.720 Class 3 milk, which is for cheese, and Class 00:18:40.720 --> 00:18:43.740 4 milk for butter and powder gets really wide. 00:18:43.900 --> 00:18:46.619 Which it has been. Processors de -pool. Basically, 00:18:46.640 --> 00:18:48.819 they find a loophole to opt out of the federal 00:18:48.819 --> 00:18:50.940 pool because the math works out better for them. 00:18:51.099 --> 00:18:53.180 Right. If they can keep the money instead of 00:18:53.180 --> 00:18:55.140 sharing it in the pool, they will. That's just 00:18:55.140 --> 00:18:57.900 business. I don't blame them. But it destabilizes 00:18:57.900 --> 00:19:00.069 the pricing for everyone else. It does. We saw 00:19:00.069 --> 00:19:03.410 a gap of over $4 per hundredweight recently between 00:19:03.410 --> 00:19:05.910 the two classes. And that creates huge winners 00:19:05.910 --> 00:19:09.109 and losers based purely on which plant you happen 00:19:09.109 --> 00:19:11.630 to ship to, not on how good your milk is or how 00:19:11.630 --> 00:19:14.029 efficient your farm is. It turns marketing your 00:19:14.029 --> 00:19:17.210 milk into a lottery. And looking ahead at the 00:19:17.210 --> 00:19:20.750 2026 outlook. Well, it doesn't look like a recovery 00:19:20.750 --> 00:19:23.609 year is on the horizon. Not at all. Class 3 is 00:19:23.609 --> 00:19:27.369 expected to average around $17 .05, which is 00:19:27.369 --> 00:19:29.910 down over 7 % from the previous year. And Class 00:19:29.910 --> 00:19:33.650 4 is even worse. Down 17%. So prices are dropping, 00:19:33.809 --> 00:19:35.849 costs are staying high, and the structural map 00:19:35.849 --> 00:19:38.470 is continuing to shrink. My prediction is that 00:19:38.470 --> 00:19:41.190 2026 will be the year that the outside -the -fence 00:19:41.190 --> 00:19:43.349 math becomes undeniable for a lot of people, 00:19:43.470 --> 00:19:45.250 not just in North Dakota. It's going to be a 00:19:45.250 --> 00:19:48.369 reckoning year. The math always... Always wins 00:19:48.369 --> 00:19:51.809 in the end. It does. Now let's get into the contrarian 00:19:51.809 --> 00:19:54.430 takes. This is the part of the deep dive where 00:19:54.430 --> 00:19:56.269 we say the things that people whisper at the 00:19:56.269 --> 00:19:58.130 feed store but don't say out on the microphone. 00:19:58.410 --> 00:20:00.789 The taboo stuff. This is stuff that makes Thanksgiving 00:20:00.789 --> 00:20:03.069 dinner really awkward. Let's start with the big 00:20:03.069 --> 00:20:05.690 one. Succession. Or maybe we should call it exiting. 00:20:06.049 --> 00:20:10.049 Oof. Yeah. In a tight -knit dairy community, 00:20:10.349 --> 00:20:14.710 selling the cows, it carries a real stigma. It's 00:20:14.710 --> 00:20:17.019 seen as failure. It feels like failure. It feels 00:20:17.019 --> 00:20:19.460 like you let grandpa down. It feels like you 00:20:19.460 --> 00:20:22.440 are the one in a long line of generations who 00:20:22.440 --> 00:20:25.480 dropped the torch. It does. But here is the contrarian 00:20:25.480 --> 00:20:28.380 view from the bull vine. Sometimes, saving the 00:20:28.380 --> 00:20:31.220 dairy actually destroys the family equity. I 00:20:31.220 --> 00:20:33.940 have seen this happen way too many times. A family 00:20:33.940 --> 00:20:36.160 keeps milking, keeps borrowing against the land, 00:20:36.299 --> 00:20:38.700 burning up that land equity to pay the feed bill. 00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:41.559 Hoping next year is better. Just one more cycle, 00:20:41.640 --> 00:20:43.420 they always say. The prices have to come back. 00:20:43.559 --> 00:20:46.559 And eventually, the bank takes it all. The cows, 00:20:46.599 --> 00:20:49.000 the equipment, and the land. Everything is gone. 00:20:49.299 --> 00:20:51.299 The families who exited before their equity was 00:20:51.299 --> 00:20:53.460 all burned up, they're the ones who actually 00:20:53.460 --> 00:20:55.539 saved their land. They're the ones who are still 00:20:55.539 --> 00:20:58.119 farming. Maybe they're cropping now. Maybe they're 00:20:58.119 --> 00:21:00.519 running beef cattle. But they still own the ground 00:21:00.519 --> 00:21:02.859 that's been in their family for 100 years. That's 00:21:02.859 --> 00:21:05.430 the hard truth. Sometimes the best way to honor 00:21:05.430 --> 00:21:08.029 the legacy is to preserve the wealth and the 00:21:08.029 --> 00:21:11.930 asset, the land, not the specific activity of 00:21:11.930 --> 00:21:14.410 milking cows twice a day. It's about being a 00:21:14.410 --> 00:21:16.789 steward of the asset, not just a laborer in the 00:21:16.789 --> 00:21:20.069 barn. Another contrarian take. Processing investment. 00:21:20.490 --> 00:21:23.210 This idea that farmers should just band together 00:21:23.210 --> 00:21:25.549 and build their own plant to solve the problem. 00:21:25.670 --> 00:21:28.230 It's a trap. A dangerous, expensive trap. Why 00:21:28.230 --> 00:21:31.500 do you say that so confidently? Because... Unless 00:21:31.500 --> 00:21:34.099 you have massive, massive volume and density 00:21:34.099 --> 00:21:36.980 of milk in a small area, you cannot compete. 00:21:37.319 --> 00:21:40.880 The Hollis, a 1 ,000 cow modern dairy, considered 00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:42.700 it and couldn't make a pencil. Right. If they 00:21:42.700 --> 00:21:45.019 can't make a pencil, a group of 60 cow dairies 00:21:45.019 --> 00:21:47.579 definitely can't. You need scale. Without that 00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:50.539 volume, your per unit processing cost is way 00:21:50.539 --> 00:21:53.000 too high. And the big guys, the Walmarts, the 00:21:53.000 --> 00:21:55.839 Kroger's, the massive co -ops, they will undercut 00:21:55.839 --> 00:21:57.880 you on the shelf every single day of the week. 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:02.500 Just simple, brutal economics. So unless you 00:22:02.500 --> 00:22:05.599 are forming a massive new generation co -op like 00:22:05.599 --> 00:22:08.920 a Glanbia or a Foremost, trying to go it alone 00:22:08.920 --> 00:22:12.119 is incredibly risky. You are jumping out of the 00:22:12.119 --> 00:22:14.180 frying pan and into the fire. So the hard truth 00:22:14.180 --> 00:22:16.859 that nobody wants to say is that the era of widespread 00:22:16.859 --> 00:22:20.519 family scale commodity dairy in remote regions. 00:22:21.369 --> 00:22:23.529 It might just be over. Yeah. The vanishing frontier 00:22:23.529 --> 00:22:26.490 is real. It's receding. And if you are standing 00:22:26.490 --> 00:22:28.410 on that frontier, you need to know that it's 00:22:28.410 --> 00:22:30.250 moving away from you. You need to know if you're 00:22:30.250 --> 00:22:32.109 standing on an island that is slowly sinking 00:22:32.109 --> 00:22:34.730 into the sea. All right. We have painted a pretty 00:22:34.730 --> 00:22:37.569 stark picture here. But we promised actionable 00:22:37.569 --> 00:22:39.650 insights. We are the bullvine. We don't just 00:22:39.650 --> 00:22:42.869 complain. We try to offer solutions. So a farmer 00:22:42.869 --> 00:22:44.670 just finished milking. They're driving to the 00:22:44.670 --> 00:22:46.130 feed store and they're feeling a pit in their 00:22:46.130 --> 00:22:48.509 stomach after listening to this. What do they 00:22:48.509 --> 00:22:50.309 need to do? Give me three things. Okay, let's 00:22:50.309 --> 00:22:52.769 break this down into actionable steps. Immediate, 00:22:52.769 --> 00:22:55.490 medium term, and long term. I like it. Insight 00:22:55.490 --> 00:22:59.089 number one, immediate. This week. What do they 00:22:59.089 --> 00:23:01.589 do when they get back to the farm office? This 00:23:01.589 --> 00:23:04.509 week, you need to do a diagnostic check. And 00:23:04.509 --> 00:23:06.750 that means you need to calculate your true all 00:23:06.750 --> 00:23:09.089 -in cost. And you have to be brutally honest 00:23:09.089 --> 00:23:11.549 about this number. Don't lie to yourself to make 00:23:11.549 --> 00:23:14.329 the numbers look better. Brutally honest. Take 00:23:14.329 --> 00:23:16.849 your family labor. Pay yourself and your family 00:23:16.849 --> 00:23:20.529 a real wage on paper. If you had to hire someone 00:23:20.529 --> 00:23:23.170 to do your job, what would it actually cost? 00:23:23.490 --> 00:23:25.569 Right. Add your full debt service payment principle 00:23:25.569 --> 00:23:27.930 and interest. Add your replacement costs for 00:23:27.930 --> 00:23:31.779 heifers. Now. subtract that total cost from your 00:23:31.779 --> 00:23:35.299 mailbox price. And stress that, your mailbox 00:23:35.299 --> 00:23:38.240 price, the check you actually deposit, not the 00:23:38.240 --> 00:23:40.940 class three price on the screen. Right. If that 00:23:40.940 --> 00:23:43.200 final number is negative over a three to five 00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:46.740 year average, you are in structural danger. You 00:23:46.740 --> 00:23:48.799 are not just having a bad year. You have a broken 00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:50.799 business model. And while you're at it, check 00:23:50.799 --> 00:23:53.480 your freight exposure. Yes. Ask yourself one 00:23:53.480 --> 00:23:56.180 simple, terrifying question. What happens if 00:23:56.180 --> 00:23:58.880 my nearest plant closes tomorrow? If the honest 00:23:58.880 --> 00:24:01.539 answer is I go broke, then you are critically 00:24:01.539 --> 00:24:04.480 vulnerable. You need a contingency plan and you 00:24:04.480 --> 00:24:06.799 need it now. Okay, that's this week. Insight 00:24:06.799 --> 00:24:10.519 number two, medium term, let's say the next three 00:24:10.519 --> 00:24:13.400 to six months. In the medium term, you need to 00:24:13.400 --> 00:24:16.119 stress test your operation. You need to analyze 00:24:16.119 --> 00:24:19.059 your debt service coverage ratio, your DSCR. 00:24:19.319 --> 00:24:21.460 Give us the benchmark. What's the magic number 00:24:21.460 --> 00:24:24.640 we're looking for? If your DSCR is below 1 .25 00:24:24.640 --> 00:24:28.960 on average, you are on very thin ice. That means 00:24:28.960 --> 00:24:30.980 for every dollar of debt payment, you only have 00:24:30.980 --> 00:24:32.819 a dollar and a quarter of income to cover it. 00:24:32.859 --> 00:24:34.819 There's no room for error. Now what's the stress 00:24:34.819 --> 00:24:38.019 test part? Run a scenario. Go into your projections 00:24:38.019 --> 00:24:40.720 and drop the milk price by $1 .50. Does your 00:24:40.720 --> 00:24:43.640 DSCR drop below 1 .0? Meaning you can't even 00:24:43.640 --> 00:24:46.119 make your payments. Exactly. If the answer is 00:24:46.119 --> 00:24:48.720 yes, you are extremely vulnerable to a market 00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:51.490 swing that you cannot control. And this is where 00:24:51.490 --> 00:24:53.769 you have to sort your problems. Is it an inside 00:24:53.769 --> 00:24:55.630 the fence problem or an outside the fence problem? 00:24:55.670 --> 00:24:58.390 Yeah, back to that. You have to. If your somatic 00:24:58.390 --> 00:25:00.910 cell count is high, fix it. That's inside the 00:25:00.910 --> 00:25:03.150 fence. You can manage that. But if your basis 00:25:03.150 --> 00:25:05.630 is negative $2 because you live in a processing 00:25:05.630 --> 00:25:07.990 desert. That's outside the fence. You cannot 00:25:07.990 --> 00:25:11.329 fix that with better teak dip. You have to recognize 00:25:11.329 --> 00:25:13.210 the difference between problems you can manage 00:25:13.210 --> 00:25:15.730 and problems you have to adapt to or escape from. 00:25:15.910 --> 00:25:18.700 That's a huge point. Okay, insight number three, 00:25:18.759 --> 00:25:21.180 long term. We're talking one to two years out. 00:25:21.460 --> 00:25:24.440 Long term, you have to pick a path, stop drifting, 00:25:24.640 --> 00:25:27.200 stop hoping. You have to make a conscious, deliberate 00:25:27.200 --> 00:25:30.359 choice. And there are basically four paths. Okay, 00:25:30.400 --> 00:25:34.079 path number one. Path one, scale, get bigger. 00:25:34.880 --> 00:25:37.640 But, and this is a huge boat, only if you are 00:25:37.640 --> 00:25:40.380 near processing infrastructure, do not get big 00:25:40.380 --> 00:25:43.000 in a desert. That is just compounding the error. 00:25:43.220 --> 00:25:44.680 It's like building a bigger boat with a bigger 00:25:44.680 --> 00:25:47.930 hole in it. Exactly. Okay, path number two, niche. 00:25:48.250 --> 00:25:50.750 The direct -to -consumer model. Right, but it 00:25:50.750 --> 00:25:53.710 has to pay. You need to be able to deliver consistently 00:25:53.710 --> 00:25:56.569 at least $8 per hundredweight above the commodity 00:25:56.569 --> 00:25:59.430 price to cover the hassle. The hassle of marketing, 00:25:59.529 --> 00:26:01.650 packaging, dealing with customers? All of it. 00:26:01.710 --> 00:26:04.170 If you're not getting an $8 premium, it is probably 00:26:04.170 --> 00:26:06.250 not worth a headache. Okay, path number three. 00:26:06.490 --> 00:26:09.349 Path three, invest in processing. This is the 00:26:09.349 --> 00:26:11.910 high -risk, high -capital path. The build -your 00:26:11.910 --> 00:26:15.519 -own -plant idea. Right. This is only for the 00:26:15.519 --> 00:26:18.539 really big players or massive, well -organized 00:26:18.539 --> 00:26:23.339 co -ops. Be very, very careful here. For 99 % 00:26:23.339 --> 00:26:26.119 of producers, this is not the right path. And 00:26:26.119 --> 00:26:28.400 that leaves the last one, path number four. Path 00:26:28.400 --> 00:26:30.980 four, the deliberate exit. The one nobody wants 00:26:30.980 --> 00:26:32.579 to talk about. The one nobody wants to pick, 00:26:32.619 --> 00:26:34.519 but it might be the smartest financial decision 00:26:34.519 --> 00:26:37.240 you ever make. Sell the cows and the iron while 00:26:37.240 --> 00:26:40.559 they still have value. Keep the land. Pivot to 00:26:40.559 --> 00:26:43.140 something else. The key to all of these is to 00:26:43.140 --> 00:26:45.579 decide. Decide before the bank decides for you. 00:26:45.819 --> 00:26:48.200 Decide before the regulator decides for you. 00:26:48.559 --> 00:26:50.839 Decide before the milk truck just stops showing 00:26:50.839 --> 00:26:53.539 up. That is the ultimate takeaway here. Agency. 00:26:53.799 --> 00:26:55.900 You have to take control of the decision, even 00:26:55.900 --> 00:26:57.579 if that decision is to leave the industry with 00:26:57.579 --> 00:27:00.279 your head held high and your equity intact. That's 00:27:00.279 --> 00:27:03.039 it. Taking control of the exit is always, always 00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:05.119 better than being forced out. This has been a 00:27:05.119 --> 00:27:07.339 heavy deep dive, but a really necessary one. 00:27:07.799 --> 00:27:10.559 The story of North Dakota isn't just about North 00:27:10.559 --> 00:27:12.940 Dakota. No. It's about the physics of the dairy 00:27:12.940 --> 00:27:16.500 industry in 2026. And gravity is winning. You 00:27:16.500 --> 00:27:18.079 have to respect the gravity. You can't fight 00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:20.279 it. Any final thoughts for the listener who's 00:27:20.279 --> 00:27:21.819 maybe pulling into the feed store right now? 00:27:22.000 --> 00:27:24.599 Just that quote from the Hollis. We don't know 00:27:24.599 --> 00:27:27.819 what we are going to do. Don't let that be you. 00:27:28.220 --> 00:27:30.720 Don't let yourself get to that point. Know what 00:27:30.720 --> 00:27:33.240 you are going to do. Do the math. Look at the 00:27:33.240 --> 00:27:37.039 map and make a plan today. Absolutely. Well, 00:27:37.059 --> 00:27:39.819 that wraps up this deep dive. This has been another 00:27:39.819 --> 00:27:42.660 Bullvine podcast from The Bullvine. For more 00:27:42.660 --> 00:27:44.920 straight -talking industry analysis, head to 00:27:44.920 --> 00:27:49.019 www .thebullvine .com. And subscribe wherever 00:27:49.019 --> 00:27:51.299 you get your podcasts. We're out with new episodes 00:27:51.299 --> 00:27:53.880 every day. Next time, we might look a little 00:27:53.880 --> 00:27:55.960 closer at those specific hauling regulations 00:27:55.960 --> 00:27:58.059 and what they could mean for producers in the 00:27:58.059 --> 00:28:00.539 Northeast. Sounds like a plan. Stay safe out 00:28:00.539 --> 00:28:01.480 there. And keep it honest.