WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:02.979 we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast, 00:01:03.280 --> 00:01:05.120 where we cut through the dairy industry noise 00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:06.939 to get you the insights that actually matter 00:01:06.939 --> 00:01:09.900 for your operation. If you're tired of the fluff, 00:01:10.019 --> 00:01:13.019 the PR spins, and the sales pitches, and you 00:01:13.019 --> 00:01:14.859 just want the hard truth about where this industry 00:01:14.859 --> 00:01:18.120 is going, you are in the right place. And today 00:01:18.120 --> 00:01:21.340 we are diving deep into a feature piece titled 00:01:21.340 --> 00:01:25.459 Genomic Horizons, Modern Math for Holstein Margins. 00:01:26.409 --> 00:01:27.769 And I have to be honest with you, right off the 00:01:27.769 --> 00:01:29.409 bat, when I first saw that headline, I thought, 00:01:29.469 --> 00:01:31.629 great, another math lesson. Just what I need 00:01:31.629 --> 00:01:34.849 after a morning of fixing scrapers. But once 00:01:34.849 --> 00:01:36.510 I actually sat down with the data in this piece, 00:01:36.609 --> 00:01:39.049 I realized this isn't a math lesson. This is 00:01:39.049 --> 00:01:41.390 a wake -up call. It really is. And it's a wake 00:01:41.390 --> 00:01:44.010 -up call for anyone, and I mean anyone, who is 00:01:44.010 --> 00:01:46.090 still walking their pens, looking at their cows, 00:01:46.170 --> 00:01:48.469 and thinking, I like the look of that one. So 00:01:48.469 --> 00:01:51.540 she stays. Oh, yeah. The old eye test. Exactly. 00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:54.159 We are looking at a fundamental shift here. The 00:01:54.159 --> 00:01:56.780 source material recovery today challenges a decades 00:01:56.780 --> 00:01:59.400 -old habit that, let's be real, most people in 00:01:59.400 --> 00:02:02.319 this industry have. It's that instinct to breed 00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:06.620 based on coat color, pattern, or kind. But today 00:02:06.620 --> 00:02:10.419 we are going to contrast that, let's call it 00:02:10.419 --> 00:02:13.620 a sentimental approach, with the cold hard math 00:02:13.620 --> 00:02:18.319 of 2025 and 2026 genomics and economics. And 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:20.319 the timing on this couldn't be better or maybe 00:02:20.319 --> 00:02:22.080 worse, depending on how your balance sheet looks 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:24.479 at the moment. But seriously, this matters right 00:02:24.479 --> 00:02:26.979 now because the margin for error is shrinking. 00:02:27.300 --> 00:02:29.699 We aren't just talking about genetic theory here. 00:02:29.780 --> 00:02:32.460 We're talking about cash flow. The days of carrying 00:02:32.460 --> 00:02:34.939 a cow because she's a pretty good one are just... 00:02:35.259 --> 00:02:36.939 They're over. Let's put some numbers on those 00:02:36.939 --> 00:02:38.139 stakes right out of the gate because I don't 00:02:38.139 --> 00:02:39.159 want people to think we're just talking about 00:02:39.159 --> 00:02:41.300 aesthetics. We have modeling from high ground 00:02:41.300 --> 00:02:43.659 dairy referenced in this deep dive showing that 00:02:43.659 --> 00:02:46.599 farmers are potentially leaving over $4 US per 00:02:46.599 --> 00:02:49.300 hundredweight on the table. Hang on. Stop right 00:02:49.300 --> 00:02:52.659 there. $4. $4 per hundredweight. That is a massive 00:02:52.659 --> 00:02:54.159 number. I mean, if you tell a producer they can 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:55.719 pick up 50 cents, they're listening. You tell 00:02:55.719 --> 00:02:57.340 them $4 and they're going to think you're selling 00:02:57.340 --> 00:03:00.699 snake oil. It sounds unbelievable, I know. But 00:03:00.699 --> 00:03:03.199 that is the figure attached to optimizing your 00:03:03.199 --> 00:03:05.719 herd strategy versus the traditional approach. 00:03:06.780 --> 00:03:09.860 It's a huge amount of unrealized revenue. And 00:03:09.860 --> 00:03:11.819 on the flip side of that revenue potential is 00:03:11.819 --> 00:03:15.099 the cost of the mistake. The source highlights 00:03:15.099 --> 00:03:18.580 that raising a heifer today costs between, what, 00:03:18.740 --> 00:03:21.979 $1 ,800 and $2 ,500 U .S. dollars? If you're 00:03:21.979 --> 00:03:23.560 listening in Canada, you're looking at nearly 00:03:23.560 --> 00:03:26.379 $3 ,000 CAD. And that's the number that just 00:03:26.379 --> 00:03:28.340 keeps going up. I was looking at my own rearing 00:03:28.340 --> 00:03:31.060 costs the other day and between feed, labor, 00:03:31.259 --> 00:03:35.000 bedding, vet costs. It is staggering. So if you 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:36.780 are guessing wrong because you like the way a 00:03:36.780 --> 00:03:38.659 calf is marked or because she reminds you of 00:03:38.659 --> 00:03:41.240 her grandmother, that is an expensive mistake. 00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:43.680 You are basically setting fire to two grand before 00:03:43.680 --> 00:03:45.879 she even calves. We are also going to get into 00:03:45.879 --> 00:03:48.400 a bit of controversy today. We need to tease 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:52.360 this up front. The idea that those white cows 00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:55.699 just seem to last longer is a myth. And we aren't 00:03:55.699 --> 00:03:57.099 just going to say it's a myth. We're going to 00:03:57.099 --> 00:04:00.419 bust it with data. I can hear the coffee shop 00:04:00.419 --> 00:04:02.860 grumbling already. There are guys who swear by 00:04:02.860 --> 00:04:05.099 their white cows. But we also have to talk about 00:04:05.099 --> 00:04:07.360 the elephant in the room, which is the inbreeding 00:04:07.360 --> 00:04:10.280 trap. We've chased speed so hard with genomics 00:04:10.280 --> 00:04:13.319 that the gene pool is shrinking faster than we 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:16.360 realized. So we have a lot to unpack. Let's get 00:04:16.360 --> 00:04:18.220 into it. I want to start with what we call the 00:04:18.220 --> 00:04:20.459 coffee shop myth. We all know it. It's practically 00:04:20.459 --> 00:04:23.019 a ritual. Oh, absolutely. It's the classic winter 00:04:23.019 --> 00:04:25.339 meeting conversation. You're sitting there, maybe 00:04:25.339 --> 00:04:28.079 having a donut, looking at a bowl catalog or 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:30.560 scrolling through a sire list. And someone leans 00:04:30.560 --> 00:04:32.639 over and says. You know, I just like a cow with 00:04:32.639 --> 00:04:34.519 a lot of white on her. They seem to handle the 00:04:34.519 --> 00:04:36.480 heat better. They last longer. They clean up 00:04:36.480 --> 00:04:39.319 better. Or you get the flip side. I like that 00:04:39.319 --> 00:04:41.860 black silky hide. That's my kind of cow. They 00:04:41.860 --> 00:04:44.399 milk. It's so deeply ingrained, isn't it? It 00:04:44.399 --> 00:04:46.899 is. And look, I'll be the first to admit, as 00:04:46.899 --> 00:04:49.600 a farmer, that is how many of us grew up. You 00:04:49.600 --> 00:04:52.370 walk the pens and you develop an eye. You look 00:04:52.370 --> 00:04:54.589 at color, pattern, and style right alongside 00:04:54.589 --> 00:04:57.689 the milk records. It is incredibly hard to break 00:04:57.689 --> 00:04:59.930 the habit of trusting your eye because for 100 00:04:59.930 --> 00:05:02.769 years, that was the primary tool. You looked 00:05:02.769 --> 00:05:05.629 for a kind. You wanted a herd that looked uniform. 00:05:05.990 --> 00:05:08.189 But here is where the science comes in to ruin 00:05:08.189 --> 00:05:10.269 the party, or save the bank account, depending 00:05:10.269 --> 00:05:12.709 on how you look at it. The source material is 00:05:12.709 --> 00:05:15.990 explicit on this. The genes that control pigment, 00:05:16.189 --> 00:05:19.819 specifically MC1R and COPA, sit on completely 00:05:19.819 --> 00:05:22.000 different chromosomes than the genes that drive 00:05:22.000 --> 00:05:24.259 milk and fertility. Okay, let's pause there and 00:05:24.259 --> 00:05:26.879 really explain that. Because to a layman or even 00:05:26.879 --> 00:05:29.339 a busy farmer, genes are just genes. They're 00:05:29.339 --> 00:05:31.560 all in the soup together, right? Right. Think 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:33.939 of it this way. Imagine a massive car manufacturing 00:05:33.939 --> 00:05:36.839 plant. On one side of the complex, you have the 00:05:36.839 --> 00:05:38.879 engine plant. This is where they build the horsepower, 00:05:39.180 --> 00:05:41.199 the fuel efficiency, the durability of the motor. 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:43.800 That's your production and fertility traits. 00:05:44.139 --> 00:05:46.379 Okay, I'm with you. The important stuff. Now, 00:05:46.399 --> 00:05:49.379 imagine that three miles down the road in a completely 00:05:49.379 --> 00:05:52.240 separate building is the paint shop. That's where 00:05:52.240 --> 00:05:54.160 they decide if the car is red, black, or white. 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:56.839 The guys in the paint shop do not talk to the 00:05:56.839 --> 00:05:58.939 guys in the engine plant. They don't send memos 00:05:58.939 --> 00:06:01.259 back and forth. Painting a car white doesn't 00:06:01.259 --> 00:06:03.180 magically make the engine have more horsepower. 00:06:03.439 --> 00:06:05.779 That is a perfect analogy. So when a farmer says, 00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:09.199 that white cow milks better, they are essentially 00:06:09.199 --> 00:06:11.920 saying this car goes faster because the paint 00:06:11.920 --> 00:06:14.639 is white. Exactly. And the source breaks down 00:06:14.639 --> 00:06:16.740 the specific geography of the genome to prove 00:06:16.740 --> 00:06:20.459 this. The MC1R gene, which controls basic blacker 00:06:20.459 --> 00:06:23.680 pigment, is on chromosome 18. The COPA gene, 00:06:23.899 --> 00:06:26.220 which is a dominant red gene, is on chromosome 00:06:26.220 --> 00:06:28.480 3. And where are the money genes? Where is the 00:06:28.480 --> 00:06:31.860 engine being built? The big drivers like DGAT1, 00:06:32.040 --> 00:06:34.759 which is a massive gene for yield, fat, and protein, 00:06:34.959 --> 00:06:37.579 are hanging out on chromosome 14. They aren't 00:06:37.579 --> 00:06:39.339 neighbors. They aren't even in the same zip code. 00:06:39.459 --> 00:06:43.399 So these genome -wide association studies, GWAS, 00:06:43.500 --> 00:06:46.420 they show these are separate stories. Wait, let 00:06:46.420 --> 00:06:48.699 me play devil's advocate here. I know plenty 00:06:48.699 --> 00:06:51.699 of herds where a certain cow family has a very 00:06:51.699 --> 00:06:54.319 specific look. Maybe they are all mostly white 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:56.829 and they are the best cows in the barn. Are you 00:06:56.829 --> 00:06:59.430 telling me that farmer is hallucinating? No, 00:06:59.449 --> 00:07:01.490 they aren't hallucinating. They are seeing what 00:07:01.490 --> 00:07:05.230 geneticists call a popular sire effect or a haplotype 00:07:05.230 --> 00:07:07.009 block. Okay, let's break that down without getting 00:07:07.009 --> 00:07:09.970 too bogged down in the jargon. Use a bull. Let's 00:07:09.970 --> 00:07:12.910 say a legend like Goldwyn or Shottle back in 00:07:12.910 --> 00:07:15.990 the day. He stamps them. They all look a certain 00:07:15.990 --> 00:07:17.750 way. And because he was a great bull, they all 00:07:17.750 --> 00:07:20.490 milk like crazy. So your brain connects the look 00:07:20.490 --> 00:07:22.290 with the milk. You see the pattern and assume 00:07:22.290 --> 00:07:24.410 it causes the production. Right. It's correlation, 00:07:24.649 --> 00:07:27.959 not causation. Exactly. You're seeing a chunk 00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:30.139 of DNA that traveled together from that bowl. 00:07:30.519 --> 00:07:33.240 But those blocks break up over time. It's like 00:07:33.240 --> 00:07:35.399 a deck of cards being shuffled. Just because 00:07:35.399 --> 00:07:38.040 a cow three generations later has the look, the 00:07:38.040 --> 00:07:40.500 ace of staves, doesn't mean she has the milk, 00:07:40.519 --> 00:07:43.300 the king of hearts. Those cards get separated. 00:07:43.600 --> 00:07:45.660 The engine parts might have been swapped out 00:07:45.660 --> 00:07:47.879 over three generations, but the paint job remained. 00:07:48.399 --> 00:07:51.199 That is a critical distinction. If you are selecting 00:07:51.199 --> 00:07:53.920 for the look three generations later, you might 00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:56.139 just be selecting for the paint while the engine 00:07:56.139 --> 00:07:58.740 has degraded into a lemon. And that leads us 00:07:58.740 --> 00:08:01.699 perfectly into the industry reality check. We 00:08:01.699 --> 00:08:03.920 need to separate the intuition from the data. 00:08:04.339 --> 00:08:06.439 We've established that the genes are separate. 00:08:06.939 --> 00:08:09.939 Now let's talk about the speed of change. This 00:08:09.939 --> 00:08:12.379 is the other part of the reality check. Since 00:08:12.379 --> 00:08:14.639 genomic selection began, the sire generation 00:08:14.639 --> 00:08:17.420 interval has dropped off a cliff. It's incredible. 00:08:17.540 --> 00:08:19.720 I remember when we used to wait for proofs. It 00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:21.399 used to be about seven years. You had to wait 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:23.560 for the bull to grow up, get semen collected, 00:08:23.800 --> 00:08:26.420 breed cows, wait for those daughters to be born, 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:29.759 grow up, calve, and milk for a lactation. It 00:08:29.759 --> 00:08:34.120 was a slow, methodical grind. Now, the sire generation 00:08:34.120 --> 00:08:36.919 interval is down to about two and a half years. 00:08:37.399 --> 00:08:40.240 We are using bulls that are basically calves 00:08:40.240 --> 00:08:43.620 themselves. And the result of that is that annual 00:08:43.620 --> 00:08:47.379 genetic gains for milk, fat, protein, and fertility 00:08:47.379 --> 00:08:50.740 have basically doubled compared to the progeny 00:08:50.740 --> 00:08:53.519 test era. We are making progress at a velocity 00:08:53.519 --> 00:08:55.679 that was impossible 20 years ago. We are moving 00:08:55.679 --> 00:08:59.200 twice as fast. But here is my worry, and I think 00:08:59.200 --> 00:09:00.879 it's what every farmer listening is thinking. 00:09:01.080 --> 00:09:03.919 We're moving fast, sure, but are we moving in 00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:06.679 the right direction? Or are we just running faster 00:09:06.679 --> 00:09:08.679 toward a cliff? If you're driving a car at 20 00:09:08.679 --> 00:09:10.399 miles an hour, you can steer around a pothole. 00:09:10.519 --> 00:09:12.639 If you're doing 100, you better have a GPS that 00:09:12.639 --> 00:09:15.039 works. Or you're going to crash. That is the 00:09:15.039 --> 00:09:17.559 perfect setup for the economic discussion. Because 00:09:17.559 --> 00:09:19.840 if you're moving that fast and you are breeding 00:09:19.840 --> 00:09:22.320 cows that are this high performance, you better 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:24.139 be profitable. Let's follow the money. Let's 00:09:24.139 --> 00:09:26.940 get back to that $4 number. But first, we have 00:09:26.940 --> 00:09:29.700 to look at the cost side. Raising a heifer is 00:09:29.700 --> 00:09:33.279 not cheap. The source cites a CanFax study out 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:36.460 of Canada that puts the cost at nearly $2 ,900 00:09:36.460 --> 00:09:39.559 Canadian. The U .S. budgets are routinely $1 00:09:39.559 --> 00:09:42.759 ,800 to $2 ,500 U .S. start. And I want to challenge 00:09:42.759 --> 00:09:45.080 that number slightly. Not that it's wrong, but 00:09:45.080 --> 00:09:47.100 that farmers often underestimate it. They look 00:09:47.100 --> 00:09:49.039 at the feed bill and say, oh, it cost me $1 ,200. 00:09:49.759 --> 00:09:51.799 Right. They forget the labor. They forget the 00:09:51.799 --> 00:09:54.019 bedding. They forget the depreciation on the 00:09:54.019 --> 00:09:56.279 heifer facility. And critically, they forget 00:09:56.279 --> 00:09:59.460 the opportunity cost. That heifer is taking up 00:09:59.460 --> 00:10:01.419 a swat that could be used for something else. 00:10:01.580 --> 00:10:03.539 Exactly. So you have this massive investment, 00:10:03.700 --> 00:10:06.659 let's call it $2 ,200 U .S., for a nice round 00:10:06.659 --> 00:10:09.279 average. That is a lot of capital tied up for 00:10:09.279 --> 00:10:11.860 two years with zero return. Compare that to the 00:10:11.860 --> 00:10:14.559 cost of a genomic test. A test like Clarified 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:17.460 or similar panels cost what? 35 to 50 bucks? 00:10:17.639 --> 00:10:20.220 Around 40 bucks, give or take. So the argument 00:10:20.220 --> 00:10:22.320 the source makes, and it's hard to argue with, 00:10:22.460 --> 00:10:27.340 is that spending $40 to risk manage a $2 ,200 00:10:27.340 --> 00:10:31.059 investment is just common sense. Why would you 00:10:31.059 --> 00:10:33.159 guess? Why would you look at a calf and say, 00:10:33.259 --> 00:10:36.220 she's mostly black, I like her, when you can 00:10:36.220 --> 00:10:38.879 spend $40 and know for a fact if she's going 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:41.720 to pay you back? It's cheap insurance. But the 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:43.679 real margin magic comes from what you do with 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:46.929 the ones you don't keep. This brings us to the 00:10:46.929 --> 00:10:50.070 beef on dairy opportunity. This is the game changer 00:10:50.070 --> 00:10:53.070 for 2025 and beyond. Talk to me about that high 00:10:53.070 --> 00:10:55.710 ground dairy modeling. How do we get to $4 per 00:10:55.710 --> 00:10:57.509 hundred weight? Because that sounds like a number 00:10:57.509 --> 00:10:59.730 you get by adding everything up in a perfect 00:10:59.730 --> 00:11:02.409 world scenario. It is an aggressive number, but 00:11:02.409 --> 00:11:04.570 the math holds up. Here is how it breaks down. 00:11:04.909 --> 00:11:06.649 Traditionally, you bred everything to Holstein. 00:11:06.710 --> 00:11:08.789 You got a heifer calf or a bull calf. The bull 00:11:08.789 --> 00:11:11.269 calf was worth five bucks maybe. The heifer calf 00:11:11.269 --> 00:11:14.169 you raised. Now look at the new model. You genomically 00:11:14.169 --> 00:11:17.809 test. You identify your bottom 20, 30, maybe 00:11:17.809 --> 00:11:20.509 even 50 % of the herd. You do not breed them 00:11:20.509 --> 00:11:22.970 to Holstein. You breed them to high -value Booth 00:11:22.970 --> 00:11:26.539 semen. Now, instead of a $5 Holstein bull calf, 00:11:26.820 --> 00:11:30.259 you have a crossbred beef calf that might sell 00:11:30.259 --> 00:11:33.340 for $200, $300, sometimes more depending on the 00:11:33.340 --> 00:11:36.320 market and the sire. That is immediate cash flow. 00:11:36.539 --> 00:11:39.019 That's bucket number one. Bucket number two is 00:11:39.019 --> 00:11:41.820 inventory control. You aren't raising surplus 00:11:41.820 --> 00:11:44.100 heifers. You are only raising the ones you actually 00:11:44.100 --> 00:11:46.980 need. So you aren't spending that $2 ,200 on 00:11:46.980 --> 00:11:48.559 a heifer that is just going to be an average 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:51.590 cow. You are saving that cash. Bucket number 00:11:51.590 --> 00:11:53.830 three. Bucket number three is the genetic progress 00:11:53.830 --> 00:11:56.929 of the herd itself. Because you are only breeding 00:11:56.929 --> 00:11:59.509 replacements from your top end, your average 00:11:59.509 --> 00:12:02.830 milk production per cow rises faster. More milk, 00:12:02.889 --> 00:12:05.029 same number of stalls. So when you stack the 00:12:05.029 --> 00:12:07.429 beef calf revenue, the savings on rearing costs, 00:12:07.649 --> 00:12:10.350 and the increased milk yield, that is how high 00:12:10.350 --> 00:12:12.350 ground dairy is projecting a margin impact of 00:12:12.350 --> 00:12:15.490 over $4 per hundredweight. Exactly. And in some 00:12:15.490 --> 00:12:18.429 models, they're projecting over $5 per hundredweight. 00:12:18.909 --> 00:12:21.330 But, and this is the big but, this revenue stream 00:12:21.330 --> 00:12:24.009 is only possible if you aren't raising every 00:12:24.009 --> 00:12:26.450 whole skein heifer just because she looks good. 00:12:26.690 --> 00:12:29.269 If you are keeping every heifer because she might 00:12:29.269 --> 00:12:32.090 be okay or I like her pattern, you don't have 00:12:32.090 --> 00:12:34.669 the inventory space to create those beef crossbreds. 00:12:34.669 --> 00:12:36.809 You are flooding your own barn with mediocre 00:12:36.809 --> 00:12:39.009 replacements instead of creating a high -value 00:12:39.009 --> 00:12:41.870 beef calf. So we've established that color doesn't 00:12:41.870 --> 00:12:44.909 equal milk. But is there any situation where 00:12:44.909 --> 00:12:47.029 color actually does matter? Well, you know I 00:12:47.029 --> 00:12:49.000 love to play devil's advocate. And the source 00:12:49.000 --> 00:12:51.980 does concede one specific area where color matters. 00:12:52.240 --> 00:12:55.279 Physics. Physics. Not biology, not genetics. 00:12:55.620 --> 00:12:58.620 Physics. Simple thermodynamics. Dark surfaces 00:12:58.620 --> 00:13:01.580 absorb solar radiation. White surfaces reflect 00:13:01.580 --> 00:13:03.580 it. It's the difference between wearing a black 00:13:03.580 --> 00:13:06.200 t -shirt or a white t -shirt on a hot day in 00:13:06.200 --> 00:13:08.960 July. And we have evidence for this from Tanzania 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:11.480 and CSIR studies mentioned in the text. Right. 00:13:11.860 --> 00:13:14.100 These studies are fascinating. They looked at 00:13:14.100 --> 00:13:17.159 cows in high heat environments. As the temperature 00:13:17.159 --> 00:13:20.779 humidity index, or THI, rises, rectal temps go 00:13:20.779 --> 00:13:23.460 up. And what they found is that cows with more 00:13:23.460 --> 00:13:25.879 black pigment saw their body temperatures rise 00:13:25.879 --> 00:13:28.860 faster than the mostly white cows. And when body 00:13:28.860 --> 00:13:31.500 temp goes up, milk yield goes down. Exactly. 00:13:31.500 --> 00:13:33.720 But the source makes a crucial distinction here. 00:13:33.860 --> 00:13:36.679 This is an environmental effect, not genetic 00:13:36.679 --> 00:13:38.899 merit. Explain that difference for the listener, 00:13:38.960 --> 00:13:40.419 because it sounds like splitting hairs, but it's 00:13:40.419 --> 00:13:43.580 vital. It means the cow isn't genetically superior 00:13:43.580 --> 00:13:45.799 because she's white. She doesn't have a better 00:13:45.799 --> 00:13:49.000 liver or better mammary system. She is just biologically 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:51.100 handling the heat load slightly better because 00:13:51.100 --> 00:13:53.840 of the physics of light absorption. She is wearing 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:56.539 a lighter t -shirt. That's it. So practically 00:13:56.539 --> 00:13:59.399 speaking, how should a farmer treat this information? 00:13:59.639 --> 00:14:02.240 If I'm in Texas, should I be breeding for white 00:14:02.240 --> 00:14:05.110 cows? Well, it depends on your environment. If 00:14:05.110 --> 00:14:07.970 you are in a high sun, dry lot environment, California, 00:14:08.190 --> 00:14:10.629 Texas, maybe parts of Southern Europe, color 00:14:10.629 --> 00:14:12.870 matters. Dark cows will hit heat stress sooner. 00:14:13.090 --> 00:14:16.830 But is breeding for white the answer? The source 00:14:16.830 --> 00:14:19.960 says no. Right. The source says. Don't change 00:14:19.960 --> 00:14:22.379 your genetics. Change your environment. The answer 00:14:22.379 --> 00:14:25.440 is shade. The answer is fans. The answer is sprinklers. 00:14:25.779 --> 00:14:28.240 You don't breed for a white coat to solve a heat 00:14:28.240 --> 00:14:31.220 problem. You build a shade structure. Because 00:14:31.220 --> 00:14:33.299 if you breed for white but ignore the index, 00:14:33.379 --> 00:14:36.279 you get a white cow that stays cool, but she 00:14:36.279 --> 00:14:38.580 doesn't milk. You've bred a very comfortable, 00:14:38.799 --> 00:14:41.779 unprofitable lawn ornament. Exactly. And for 00:14:41.779 --> 00:14:44.639 our listeners in moderate or indoor climates, 00:14:44.700 --> 00:14:47.179 Wisconsin, Ontario, Northern Europe, where the 00:14:47.179 --> 00:14:50.139 cows are inside. 90 % of the time. Ventilation 00:14:50.139 --> 00:14:52.960 trumps coat color every time. Precisely. If your 00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:55.360 cows are inside, the sun isn't hitting them, 00:14:55.419 --> 00:14:57.559 so the color of the hide is irrelevant compared 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:00.120 to air exchange and fan capacity. Okay, so we've 00:15:00.120 --> 00:15:01.940 busted the color myth, we've looked at the money, 00:15:02.059 --> 00:15:04.799 now let's look at the dark side of this genomic 00:15:04.799 --> 00:15:08.399 revolution. Segment 5. Future implications and 00:15:08.399 --> 00:15:10.899 the inbreeding trap. This is the part that keeps 00:15:10.899 --> 00:15:13.330 geneticists up at night. We talked about how 00:15:13.330 --> 00:15:15.669 fast we are moving generation intervals dropping 00:15:15.669 --> 00:15:17.450 to two and a half years. Well, when you move 00:15:17.450 --> 00:15:19.649 that fast, you tend to use the same supersires 00:15:19.649 --> 00:15:22.610 over and over. Everyone wants the top bull. The 00:15:22.610 --> 00:15:25.909 source mentions a specific term, runs of homozygosity, 00:15:25.909 --> 00:15:29.750 or ROH. Yeah, ROH. Imagine your DNA is a zipper. 00:15:30.269 --> 00:15:32.509 If the DNA you get from your mom is identical 00:15:32.509 --> 00:15:34.870 to the DNA you get from your dad for a long stretch, 00:15:35.129 --> 00:15:38.210 the zipper is closed. That's a run of homozygosity. 00:15:38.289 --> 00:15:40.370 It means you have zero genetic variation in that 00:15:40.370 --> 00:15:43.159 stretch. And why is that bad? Because variation 00:15:43.159 --> 00:15:45.879 is the toolbox the cow uses to fix problems. 00:15:46.120 --> 00:15:48.080 If she has two different copies of a gene, she 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:50.340 has options. If she has two identical copies 00:15:50.340 --> 00:15:53.039 and those copies happen to be defective or weak, 00:15:53.200 --> 00:15:56.120 she has no backup plan. And the data is startling. 00:15:56.460 --> 00:15:59.320 A North American Holstein study from 1990 to 00:15:59.320 --> 00:16:03.440 2016 showed ROH segments went from about 57 per 00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:07.259 animal to 82. That is a massive jump. And the 00:16:07.259 --> 00:16:09.419 rate of inbreeding doubled per calendar year 00:16:09.419 --> 00:16:11.620 once genomics kicked in. Because we are turning 00:16:11.620 --> 00:16:14.159 generations over so fast, we are stacking that 00:16:14.159 --> 00:16:16.440 inbreeding up quicker than ever before. We are 00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:18.899 closing the zipper tighter and tighter. What 00:16:18.899 --> 00:16:20.980 are the consequences of this? Is it just a number 00:16:20.980 --> 00:16:23.820 on a page? No, it has real -world effects. Italian 00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:26.480 data links higher genomic inbreeding to reduced 00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:29.480 stayability. Stayability, that's a great term. 00:16:29.700 --> 00:16:31.980 It measures how long a cow stays in the herd. 00:16:32.330 --> 00:16:35.250 The data shows that highly inbred cows burn out. 00:16:35.289 --> 00:16:37.190 They don't have the resilience. Maybe they get 00:16:37.190 --> 00:16:39.190 sick and don't bounce back as fast. Maybe they 00:16:39.190 --> 00:16:41.210 have subtle fertility issues. They just fail. 00:16:41.470 --> 00:16:44.769 So the question becomes, are we breeding ourselves 00:16:44.769 --> 00:16:48.110 into a corner? In a way, yes. If we aren't careful, 00:16:48.370 --> 00:16:51.490 we are building Ferraris, but we might be using 00:16:51.490 --> 00:16:54.090 fragile parts. So what is the fix? We can't go 00:16:54.090 --> 00:16:56.610 back to 1990. No, we can't. The solution is what 00:16:56.610 --> 00:16:59.450 they call optimal contribution mating. It sounds 00:16:59.450 --> 00:17:02.440 fancy, but it basically means... Stop just looking 00:17:02.440 --> 00:17:04.940 at the pedigree names. Look at the genomic relationship 00:17:04.940 --> 00:17:07.640 matrix. So don't just ask, is the sire her dad? 00:17:08.240 --> 00:17:11.160 Ask, how much actual DNA do they share? Exactly. 00:17:11.519 --> 00:17:14.039 Because of the way DNA recombines, a cow might 00:17:14.039 --> 00:17:16.740 share 50 % of her DNA with her sire, or maybe 00:17:16.740 --> 00:17:18.480 slightly more or less, depending on the shuffle. 00:17:18.920 --> 00:17:21.259 You need to look at the molecular level. And 00:17:21.259 --> 00:17:23.359 practically, for the farmer listening, it means 00:17:23.359 --> 00:17:26.160 use a team of bulls. Don't put all your eggs 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:28.420 in the basket of the one it bull of the year. 00:17:28.660 --> 00:17:31.769 Use a team. Spread the risk. This brings us to 00:17:31.769 --> 00:17:34.250 a bit of a contrarian take to wrap up the discussion. 00:17:34.849 --> 00:17:37.789 If genomics is doing all the heavy lifting, selecting 00:17:37.789 --> 00:17:40.210 the heifers, predicting the milk, managing the 00:17:40.210 --> 00:17:42.890 inbreeding, does the stockman's eye matter at 00:17:42.890 --> 00:17:45.730 all anymore? Yeah. Are we just data entry clerks? 00:17:45.769 --> 00:17:47.410 This is the emotional part of the discussion. 00:17:47.549 --> 00:17:50.430 And the answer is a resounding yes, the eye matters, 00:17:50.490 --> 00:17:55.309 but the role has changed. Think about it. In 00:17:55.309 --> 00:17:57.670 the old days, the eye was the selector. You stood 00:17:57.670 --> 00:17:59.589 in the pen and pointed, breed her, cull her. 00:18:00.809 --> 00:18:03.710 You were the judge, jury, and executioner based 00:18:03.710 --> 00:18:06.430 on visual appraisal. And now. Now the eye is 00:18:06.430 --> 00:18:08.829 the manager. I love that distinction. Genomics 00:18:08.829 --> 00:18:11.490 cannot see a cow limping. Genomics cannot see 00:18:11.490 --> 00:18:13.630 that a heifer is being bullied at the feed bunk 00:18:13.630 --> 00:18:15.809 and isn't getting enough grain. Genomics cannot 00:18:15.809 --> 00:18:17.910 tell you that a cow is having a rough transition 00:18:17.910 --> 00:18:20.309 and looks depressed. So the farmer needs to use 00:18:20.309 --> 00:18:23.029 their eye to spot early lameness, transition 00:18:23.029 --> 00:18:26.460 issues, barn usage. Exactly. There is a great 00:18:26.460 --> 00:18:28.920 anecdote in the source about a producer who realized 00:18:28.920 --> 00:18:32.640 his eye is now his best management tool while 00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:35.619 the DNA handles the investment decisions. He 00:18:35.619 --> 00:18:38.140 stopped trying to outguess the computer on potential 00:18:38.140 --> 00:18:41.279 and started using his skills to help the cows 00:18:41.279 --> 00:18:44.259 realize that potential. That is a powerful shift 00:18:44.259 --> 00:18:46.380 in mindset. It's not about surrendering your 00:18:46.380 --> 00:18:48.740 skill. It's about applying it where it has the 00:18:48.740 --> 00:18:51.920 highest return. Precisely. You aren't being replaced 00:18:51.920 --> 00:18:54.329 by a test tube. You are being freed up to be 00:18:54.329 --> 00:18:57.089 a better cow manager. The DNA picks the team. 00:18:57.190 --> 00:18:59.529 You coach them. All right, we have covered a 00:18:59.529 --> 00:19:01.769 ton of ground. We've looked at the biology, the 00:19:01.769 --> 00:19:04.309 economics, the physics of heat, and the genetics 00:19:04.309 --> 00:19:06.549 of inbreeding. But we always like to leave our 00:19:06.549 --> 00:19:08.470 listeners with something they can actually do. 00:19:08.930 --> 00:19:10.950 If a farmer is driving to the feed store right 00:19:10.950 --> 00:19:13.309 now, what are the three things they need to take 00:19:13.309 --> 00:19:15.309 away from this? Okay, let's break it down. We 00:19:15.309 --> 00:19:17.430 need an immediate plan, a medium -term plan, 00:19:17.630 --> 00:19:19.829 and a long -term plan. Let's start with takeaway 00:19:19.829 --> 00:19:22.029 number one, the one -year audit. This is for 00:19:22.029 --> 00:19:25.299 this week. This is a low -risk challenge. I want 00:19:25.299 --> 00:19:28.359 you to run a learn -from -your -data trial. Commit 00:19:28.359 --> 00:19:31.299 to testing every single heifer calf for 12 months. 00:19:31.880 --> 00:19:34.619 Just do it. But here's the twist, and this is 00:19:34.619 --> 00:19:37.359 crucial. Don't change your decisions yet. Right. 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:39.720 Keep doing what you do. Make your visual calls. 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:41.680 Go into the pen, look at the calves, and write 00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:43.799 down, I like this one, I don't like that one. 00:19:43.900 --> 00:19:46.400 Put it in a notebook. Then at the end of the 00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:48.660 year, compare your notes to the DNA results. 00:19:49.140 --> 00:20:03.900 See where your eye lied to you. Takeaway number 00:20:03.900 --> 00:20:13.309 two. Pick your compass. This is for the next 00:20:13.309 --> 00:20:15.430 three to six months. Stop trying to look at 50 00:20:15.430 --> 00:20:17.849 different traits. Stop looking at type and feet 00:20:17.849 --> 00:20:20.349 and legs and milk and somatic cell count individually. 00:20:20.890 --> 00:20:24.609 Pick one economic index. Net merit, crow dollars, 00:20:24.829 --> 00:20:27.670 LPI, CM dollars, whatever fits your milk market. 00:20:27.930 --> 00:20:31.309 And then? Rank your heifers high to low. Print 00:20:31.309 --> 00:20:34.630 the list and be strict. The top tier say the 00:20:34.630 --> 00:20:37.950 top 50 % get sexed Holstein. You want daughters 00:20:37.950 --> 00:20:40.869 from them. The middle tier, maybe conventional 00:20:40.869 --> 00:20:43.970 semen if you need the pregnancies. And the bottom 00:20:43.970 --> 00:20:48.170 tier, the problem cows. Beef semen. Why is this 00:20:48.170 --> 00:20:50.630 ranking so critical? This directly impacts that 00:20:50.630 --> 00:20:53.759 heifer rearing cost versus... beef revenue balance 00:20:53.759 --> 00:20:56.420 we talked about. This is how you unlock that 00:20:56.420 --> 00:20:59.480 $4 per hundred weight margin. You stop creating 00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:02.259 low value dairy heifers and start creating high 00:21:02.259 --> 00:21:05.440 value beef crosses. You have to be ruthless with 00:21:05.440 --> 00:21:07.819 the bottom end of the herd. And finally, takeaway 00:21:07.819 --> 00:21:10.299 number three, the inbreeding guardrail. This 00:21:10.299 --> 00:21:12.380 is the long -term play one to two years out. 00:21:12.460 --> 00:21:14.039 This is a conversation you need to have with 00:21:14.039 --> 00:21:16.339 your AI rep or your mating service. Next time 00:21:16.339 --> 00:21:18.279 they sit down at your kitchen table, don't just 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:20.660 look at the bull proofs, ask a specific question. 00:21:20.799 --> 00:21:23.130 What is the question? Show me the genomic inbreeding 00:21:23.130 --> 00:21:25.150 risk for this mating, not just the pedigree. 00:21:25.230 --> 00:21:28.450 Make them show you the data. Yes. The goal is 00:21:28.450 --> 00:21:30.509 to keep your inbreeding curves from getting too 00:21:30.509 --> 00:21:33.630 steep. You want to protect the adaptability and 00:21:33.630 --> 00:21:36.789 health traits for your herd in 2030. If you just 00:21:36.789 --> 00:21:39.130 chase the highest index number blindly without 00:21:39.130 --> 00:21:41.750 checking the inbreeding, you are building a fragile 00:21:41.750 --> 00:21:45.230 cow. You are building a car with a massive engine 00:21:45.230 --> 00:21:48.470 but a cracked chassis. Stop guessing. Start testing. 00:21:48.650 --> 00:21:51.109 That's the mantra. It's not about romance anymore. 00:21:51.190 --> 00:21:53.670 It's about math. But it's math that keeps you 00:21:53.670 --> 00:21:55.549 in business so you can keep loving the cows. 00:21:55.869 --> 00:21:57.670 Because you can't love them if you're bankrupt. 00:21:57.970 --> 00:22:01.670 Well said. This has been a deep dive into genomic 00:22:01.670 --> 00:22:04.150 horizons. We hope this shakes up your thinking 00:22:04.150 --> 00:22:06.230 a bit next time you're looking at a pen of heifers. 00:22:06.559 --> 00:22:08.559 And remember, straight talking analysis is what 00:22:08.559 --> 00:22:10.880 we do. This has been another Bullvine podcast 00:22:10.880 --> 00:22:13.420 from The Bullvine. For more of this kind of no 00:22:13.420 --> 00:22:16.599 BS industry analysis, you know where to go. www 00:22:16.599 --> 00:22:19.900 .thebullvine .com. Subscribe wherever you get 00:22:19.900 --> 00:22:22.319 podcasts. We are out with new episodes every 00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:24.299 day. Thanks for listening and we'll catch you 00:22:24.299 --> 00:22:26.359 on the next deep dive. Stay profitable, everyone.