WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:03.229 we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast, 00:01:03.450 --> 00:01:06.250 where we cut through dairy industry noise to 00:01:06.250 --> 00:01:08.590 get you the insights that actually matter for 00:01:08.590 --> 00:01:10.609 your operation. You know, the ones that don't 00:01:10.609 --> 00:01:13.129 just sound good on paper. Exactly. The ones that 00:01:13.129 --> 00:01:15.109 fundamentally change your bottom line in the 00:01:15.109 --> 00:01:18.790 barn. And today, we're diving deep into a feature 00:01:18.790 --> 00:01:22.409 piece we published about what we've branded the 00:01:22.409 --> 00:01:25.730 $3 ,000 system cow. And this isn't just a fun 00:01:25.730 --> 00:01:28.670 name. No, it's a complete economic declaration. 00:01:29.010 --> 00:01:30.890 We're talking about an animal that will likely 00:01:30.890 --> 00:01:33.730 never win a show ring banner, but she absolutely 00:01:33.730 --> 00:01:36.010 needs to be the reason your balance sheet stays 00:01:36.010 --> 00:01:38.670 positive through the next few years. Yeah, the 00:01:38.670 --> 00:01:40.810 sources we're dissecting today are just brutally 00:01:40.810 --> 00:01:43.530 honest. This deep dive isn't about, you know, 00:01:43.569 --> 00:01:46.530 breed aesthetics or chasing the latest genomic 00:01:46.530 --> 00:01:48.390 trend just because it's high on a list. Not at 00:01:48.390 --> 00:01:51.329 all. This is pure, unadulterated economics, and 00:01:51.329 --> 00:01:54.010 the timing couldn't be more critical. Why the 00:01:54.010 --> 00:01:56.730 system tau now? Well, because the era of the 00:01:56.730 --> 00:01:59.609 disposable cow, it's over. The one you could 00:01:59.609 --> 00:02:01.430 afford to call just because she sneezed, that's 00:02:01.430 --> 00:02:04.750 gone. Absolutely. The cost of entry has just 00:02:04.750 --> 00:02:07.209 gone ballistic. And that's the driving force. 00:02:07.750 --> 00:02:10.750 We are routinely seeing replacement heifers hitting 00:02:10.750 --> 00:02:14.990 $3 ,000 US or more. And in those high demand 00:02:14.990 --> 00:02:18.030 markets like California, Idaho, the upper Midwest. 00:02:18.490 --> 00:02:21.949 Top breeding lots are pushing $4 ,000 for verified 00:02:21.949 --> 00:02:26.139 pregnancies. We saw that mid -2025 co -bank data. 00:02:26.360 --> 00:02:29.039 And frankly, those figures set the stage for 00:02:29.039 --> 00:02:32.080 a total industry change. It has to. It changes 00:02:32.080 --> 00:02:34.240 every management decision you make when you have 00:02:34.240 --> 00:02:36.319 to budget three grand, sometimes more, just to 00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:38.400 get a fresh heifer into the milking string. Oh, 00:02:38.460 --> 00:02:40.560 yeah. I mean, think about the risk you're taking 00:02:40.560 --> 00:02:42.400 with that investment. The stakes are incredibly 00:02:42.400 --> 00:02:45.110 high. Which means the mission of this entire 00:02:45.110 --> 00:02:48.009 deep dive can be distilled down to one single 00:02:48.009 --> 00:02:51.669 massive goal. Right. Saving roughly $180 ,000 00:02:51.669 --> 00:02:55.189 annually in a typical 1 ,000 cow herd. And that's 00:02:55.189 --> 00:02:56.830 just by getting cows to stick around for one 00:02:56.830 --> 00:02:59.009 or two more lactations. It's that simple. And 00:02:59.009 --> 00:03:00.990 that's the reality check we need to start with. 00:03:01.030 --> 00:03:04.379 We have to recalibrate our thinking. We do. The 00:03:04.379 --> 00:03:07.060 most profitable animal on your farm is no longer 00:03:07.060 --> 00:03:09.280 the flashiest or the one with the highest index 00:03:09.280 --> 00:03:11.780 score in the catalog. No. She is the one that 00:03:11.780 --> 00:03:14.199 stays out of trouble, requires minimal special 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:17.900 handling, and most importantly, pays off her 00:03:17.900 --> 00:03:21.360 enormous rearing cost before she's gone. She 00:03:21.360 --> 00:03:24.000 is the utility vehicle of your barn. Not the 00:03:24.000 --> 00:03:26.180 race car. Exactly. We are definitely going to 00:03:26.180 --> 00:03:28.759 challenge some sacred cows here. Literally. I 00:03:28.759 --> 00:03:30.750 was going to say. We have to address the elephant 00:03:30.750 --> 00:03:33.169 in the room that has dominated our genetics programs 00:03:33.169 --> 00:03:37.069 for decades. The show ring ideal, that classic 00:03:37.069 --> 00:03:40.270 dairy triangle. We're going to look at hard data 00:03:40.270 --> 00:03:43.669 that suggests that tall, angular cow, the one 00:03:43.669 --> 00:03:46.250 we've admired and selected for, might actually 00:03:46.250 --> 00:03:48.650 be the single most expensive cull risk on your 00:03:48.650 --> 00:03:51.229 operation today. We will. And we also have to 00:03:51.229 --> 00:03:53.469 expose where the most hidden profit is leaking. 00:03:53.879 --> 00:03:56.479 And that's lameness. A huge one. We'll talk about 00:03:56.479 --> 00:03:58.879 why one lameness incident is costing you upwards 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:01.520 of $300. And that's a conservative estimate per 00:04:01.520 --> 00:04:04.080 case. But here's the kicker. Yeah, the staggering 00:04:04.080 --> 00:04:07.419 statistic is that you, the farmer, are probably 00:04:07.419 --> 00:04:09.740 only catching one out of every four clinical 00:04:09.740 --> 00:04:13.360 cases in your herd. One in four. That detection 00:04:13.360 --> 00:04:15.800 gap is a six -figure blind spot we have to address. 00:04:16.430 --> 00:04:19.149 OK, let's unpack this financial pressure. We 00:04:19.149 --> 00:04:21.810 have to start with the core issue, replacement 00:04:21.810 --> 00:04:25.209 costs and supply scarcity. Right. We've been 00:04:25.209 --> 00:04:27.310 hearing about tight numbers for a while, but 00:04:27.310 --> 00:04:29.709 the sources confirm this is hitting an absolute 00:04:29.709 --> 00:04:32.829 peak. And it's not just market volatility. No, 00:04:32.889 --> 00:04:35.290 it's structural. The national average is settled 00:04:35.290 --> 00:04:37.290 firmly between, you know, twenty eight hundred 00:04:37.290 --> 00:04:39.850 and three thousand dollars. But the real headline 00:04:39.850 --> 00:04:42.569 from CoBank isn't the price today. It's the forecast. 00:04:42.889 --> 00:04:46.089 It's the forecast. They are predicting. These 00:04:46.089 --> 00:04:49.050 values won't meaningfully recover, won't drop 00:04:49.050 --> 00:04:52.709 back to a more sustainable pre -2022 level until 00:04:52.709 --> 00:04:56.089 2027. That's two more years of budgeting for 00:04:56.089 --> 00:04:58.720 astronomical heifer prices. And that timeline 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:01.019 is what fundamentally forces us to change our 00:05:01.019 --> 00:05:02.680 culling philosophy. You just can't. You can't 00:05:02.680 --> 00:05:04.639 budget for a disposable animal and the replacement 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:07.480 costs this much and for this long. So why is 00:05:07.480 --> 00:05:10.459 2027 the magic number? It's not just a guess, 00:05:10.540 --> 00:05:12.800 right? No, it's the time lag from the cow side. 00:05:13.060 --> 00:05:16.300 I mean, remember three or four years ago, the 00:05:16.300 --> 00:05:18.579 dairy markets weren't as strong. And we started 00:05:18.579 --> 00:05:21.160 seeing that massive acceleration in the use of 00:05:21.160 --> 00:05:23.399 beef on dairy genetics. Right. Everyone was trying 00:05:23.399 --> 00:05:25.879 to find a better terminal value for a straight 00:05:25.879 --> 00:05:29.329 Holstein bull calf. So we started breeding 50, 00:05:29.569 --> 00:05:31.990 60, sometimes 70 percent of the herd to beef 00:05:31.990 --> 00:05:34.529 bulls. Which was smart cash flow management at 00:05:34.529 --> 00:05:36.470 the time. It was brilliant cash flow management. 00:05:36.689 --> 00:05:39.430 But now, four years later, that decision has 00:05:39.430 --> 00:05:42.240 cycled through. And the bills come due. It has. 00:05:42.459 --> 00:05:45.939 High ground dairy's January 2025 data showed 00:05:45.939 --> 00:05:48.560 the lowest expected heifer calvings since they 00:05:48.560 --> 00:05:51.060 even started tracking the numbers. Wow. This 00:05:51.060 --> 00:05:53.860 is a direct, I mean, it's an unavoidable consequence 00:05:53.860 --> 00:05:56.699 of that heavy beef on dairy use and the lower 00:05:56.699 --> 00:05:59.019 heifer retention the industry adopted. we are 00:05:59.019 --> 00:06:01.639 now paying the price literally for the efficiency 00:06:01.639 --> 00:06:04.000 gains we made a few years ago. We manufactured 00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:06.139 this shortage. And that, of course, ties directly 00:06:06.139 --> 00:06:08.740 into the operational reality of scale and labor. 00:06:08.920 --> 00:06:11.800 Oh, yeah. In a smaller, older tie stall operation, 00:06:12.100 --> 00:06:14.759 you might know every cow's personality and you 00:06:14.759 --> 00:06:17.740 catch that subtle, fresh cow issue on day five 00:06:17.740 --> 00:06:20.079 because you're looking at her udder ten times 00:06:20.079 --> 00:06:22.720 a day. Sure, you're right there. But... That's 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:25.120 simply not the reality for the vast majority 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:27.399 of our listeners. No, not at all. When you're 00:06:27.399 --> 00:06:30.120 running a freestall operation with 700 cows or 00:06:30.120 --> 00:06:33.740 especially a massive 3 ,000 cow dairy, you are 00:06:33.740 --> 00:06:36.540 entirely limited by your labor pool. Not your 00:06:36.540 --> 00:06:39.100 desire to manage every single animal individually. 00:06:39.160 --> 00:06:41.779 Right. Staff turnover is high and the quality 00:06:41.779 --> 00:06:44.420 of observation is just inherently limited. So 00:06:44.420 --> 00:06:48.110 a cow that requires special... fresh cow management, 00:06:48.370 --> 00:06:51.810 or repeated treatments or extra handling, even 00:06:51.810 --> 00:06:53.810 if she's potentially a great producer, is harder 00:06:53.810 --> 00:06:56.350 and harder to justify. You're asking your staff 00:06:56.350 --> 00:06:58.949 to divert resources to save one animal when they 00:06:58.949 --> 00:07:00.610 should be focused on the transition group or 00:07:00.610 --> 00:07:03.189 the breeding group. Exactly. The subtle, high 00:07:03.189 --> 00:07:05.449 -maintenance animal becomes a burden. The system 00:07:05.449 --> 00:07:08.350 cow has to be inherently durable, low -maintenance, 00:07:08.389 --> 00:07:11.129 stay out of trouble. Because the system can't 00:07:11.129 --> 00:07:13.560 save her. The modern high throughput system itself 00:07:13.560 --> 00:07:16.300 does not have the bandwidth to save a high maintenance 00:07:16.300 --> 00:07:19.040 animal. If she needs three extra days in the 00:07:19.040 --> 00:07:21.540 hospital pen because she's sensitive to the stall 00:07:21.540 --> 00:07:24.120 mat, that's labor cost you can't get back. Which 00:07:24.120 --> 00:07:27.259 brings us directly to the longevity gap. If that 00:07:27.259 --> 00:07:29.519 cow costs three grand just to get her into the 00:07:29.519 --> 00:07:31.519 milking string, she has to stick around long 00:07:31.519 --> 00:07:33.939 enough to pay that back and then some. And then 00:07:33.939 --> 00:07:36.060 generate profit. We're not talking about a quick 00:07:36.060 --> 00:07:38.279 flip anymore. No. And this is where the academic 00:07:38.279 --> 00:07:42.170 data meets the farm reality. Dr. Al DeVries' 00:07:42.290 --> 00:07:45.269 research at the University of Florida is so critical 00:07:45.269 --> 00:07:49.029 here. Okay. Based on purely economic modeling 00:07:49.029 --> 00:07:51.810 factoring in rearing costs, milk curves, coal 00:07:51.810 --> 00:07:55.209 values, he suggested it is ambitious because 00:07:55.209 --> 00:07:58.370 the reality is dismal. Most commercial operations 00:07:58.370 --> 00:08:01.250 still average only 2 .5 to 3 .5 lactations. So 00:08:01.250 --> 00:08:04.430 we're way off. The dairy herd data from 2018 00:08:04.430 --> 00:08:08.649 put the average productive life at just 35 .3 00:08:08.649 --> 00:08:11.670 months. That is the longevity gap right there. 00:08:11.769 --> 00:08:14.990 Wow. We are consistently culling cows, usually 00:08:14.990 --> 00:08:17.509 for transition failure, fertility issues, or 00:08:17.509 --> 00:08:20.410 lameness, before they ever hit their economic 00:08:20.410 --> 00:08:23.569 stride. You are taking a loss on the heifer -rearing 00:08:23.569 --> 00:08:25.689 investment on every single animal that leaves 00:08:25.689 --> 00:08:29.110 prematurely? Every one. So the $3 ,000 heifer 00:08:29.110 --> 00:08:32.049 cost is forcing us to immediately look at how 00:08:32.049 --> 00:08:34.929 we close that gap between the 35 months we average 00:08:34.929 --> 00:08:37.450 and the five years we optimally need. It's no 00:08:37.450 --> 00:08:39.590 longer just a breeding philosophy debate. No, 00:08:39.629 --> 00:08:41.830 it's a non -negotiable risk management strategy 00:08:41.830 --> 00:08:44.250 driven by inventory expense. Let's follow the 00:08:44.250 --> 00:08:46.049 money trail now because this is where the theory 00:08:46.049 --> 00:08:48.669 becomes cold, hard, six -figure cash. Right. 00:08:48.750 --> 00:08:51.330 Break down that rearing cost hurdle and why it's 00:08:51.330 --> 00:08:53.809 the anchor dragging down profitability. It is 00:08:53.809 --> 00:08:56.610 the silent killer on the balance sheet. That 00:08:56.610 --> 00:09:00.429 total rearing cost from birth through weaning, 00:09:00.529 --> 00:09:05.120 feeding, housing to first calving. It consistently 00:09:05.120 --> 00:09:09.100 runs between $2 ,000 and $2 ,800. Okay. We can 00:09:09.100 --> 00:09:11.259 use the University of Nebraska -Lincoln's 2024 00:09:11.259 --> 00:09:16.120 analysis benchmark of $2 ,500. So that's $2 ,500 00:09:16.120 --> 00:09:18.840 of capital sitting in the barn waiting to be 00:09:18.840 --> 00:09:21.279 paid off. Yep. And if she leaves early, that 00:09:21.279 --> 00:09:24.600 capital is largely wasted. Precisely. Every cow 00:09:24.600 --> 00:09:26.480 that leaves before she's finished her second 00:09:26.480 --> 00:09:29.059 lactation, or certainly her third, hasn't fully 00:09:29.059 --> 00:09:32.279 amortized that initial $2 ,500 investment. let 00:09:32.279 --> 00:09:34.659 alone started generating profit in earnest. It's 00:09:34.659 --> 00:09:37.440 like a loan. It is. If you repay the principal 00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:39.519 but you default before you start seeing true 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:42.919 interest gains, you failed. Longevity is the 00:09:42.919 --> 00:09:44.600 interest gain. And that's a tragedy because you're 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:46.940 also losing out on the best, most efficient milk 00:09:46.940 --> 00:09:49.200 she'll ever make. Oh, yeah. The data is absolutely 00:09:49.200 --> 00:09:51.779 clear. Maturity pays off massively in the parlor. 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:53.419 It does. We're talking about third lactation 00:09:53.419 --> 00:09:55.700 plus cows producing significantly more milk and 00:09:55.700 --> 00:09:57.870 components than first calvers. And not just a 00:09:57.870 --> 00:10:00.230 little more. No, the consensus across multiple 00:10:00.230 --> 00:10:04.210 studies shows 20 to 25 percent higher mature 00:10:04.210 --> 00:10:06.490 equivalent yields. This isn't just because they 00:10:06.490 --> 00:10:09.850 are older. It's physiological. Talk about the 00:10:09.850 --> 00:10:13.049 why for a minute. Why the massive bump in the 00:10:13.049 --> 00:10:15.429 third lactation? It's a combination of metabolic 00:10:15.429 --> 00:10:18.350 capacity and utter maturity. Yeah. A first calver 00:10:18.350 --> 00:10:20.490 is still growing. She's dedicating nutritional 00:10:20.490 --> 00:10:22.950 energy to skeletal frame development. Right. 00:10:23.049 --> 00:10:26.389 A third lactation cow is a fully mature machine. 00:10:26.940 --> 00:10:30.059 Her rumen capacity is maximized, her heart girth 00:10:30.059 --> 00:10:32.720 is wider, she handles the high forage rations 00:10:32.720 --> 00:10:36.019 better, and crucially, her utter tissue is fully 00:10:36.019 --> 00:10:38.440 mature. So you get better components. You get 00:10:38.440 --> 00:10:41.080 more stable butterfat performance, and she's 00:10:41.080 --> 00:10:43.120 better able to handle the metabolic stress of 00:10:43.120 --> 00:10:45.639 early lactation. You get an investment return 00:10:45.639 --> 00:10:49.169 and a 25 % production bump simultaneously. So 00:10:49.169 --> 00:10:51.730 culling a cow early isn't just about losing the 00:10:51.730 --> 00:10:54.929 animal and the $2 ,500 rearing cost. No. It's 00:10:54.929 --> 00:10:57.450 losing 25 % of the potential output she could 00:10:57.450 --> 00:10:59.269 have given you during her peak performance years. 00:10:59.529 --> 00:11:01.730 That's the core of the argument for the system 00:11:01.730 --> 00:11:03.990 cow. She's built to hit that peak and stay there. 00:11:04.149 --> 00:11:08.269 And this brings us to the $180 ,000 calculation. 00:11:08.830 --> 00:11:10.429 This is the figure that should fundamentally 00:11:10.429 --> 00:11:12.789 change how every listener views their breeding 00:11:12.789 --> 00:11:15.840 program. Let's run the numbers slowly for that 00:11:15.840 --> 00:11:18.500 typical 1 ,000 cow herd. Okay, grab that pen, 00:11:18.620 --> 00:11:21.700 listeners. This is real money. If you are operating 00:11:21.700 --> 00:11:25.139 at a fairly typical and, frankly, too high replacement 00:11:25.139 --> 00:11:29.980 rate of 35%, that means 350 cows are leaving 00:11:29.980 --> 00:11:33.539 your farm every year. Multiply that by a conservative 00:11:33.539 --> 00:11:38.220 heifer cost of, say, $2 ,660. Okay. You are spending 00:11:38.220 --> 00:11:42.820 $931 ,000 annually. Just on replacement heifers. 00:11:42.980 --> 00:11:45.379 Nearly a million dollars just to keep the seats 00:11:45.379 --> 00:11:47.259 filled. Just to stand still. And that assumes 00:11:47.259 --> 00:11:50.379 perfect health, perfect pregnancies, and no issues 00:11:50.379 --> 00:11:52.700 in the transition pen. Which we know isn't true. 00:11:52.899 --> 00:11:57.340 Never true. Right. Now, if you implement the 00:11:57.340 --> 00:11:59.399 system cow philosophy breeding for durability, 00:11:59.779 --> 00:12:02.440 minimizing risks, optimizing management, and 00:12:02.440 --> 00:12:05.200 you drop that replacement rate down to a very 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:09.830 achievable 28%. Okay. You now only need 280 replacements. 00:12:09.870 --> 00:12:13.370 That costs you roughly $745 ,000. The annual 00:12:13.370 --> 00:12:16.690 difference is huge. We're talking $186 ,000 in 00:12:16.690 --> 00:12:18.950 immediate cash flow savings. Which we round to 00:12:18.950 --> 00:12:21.490 $180 ,000. That's not theoretical. No, that's 00:12:21.490 --> 00:12:23.830 real cash that doesn't leave your bank account 00:12:23.830 --> 00:12:27.750 simply by keeping 70 cows one extra lactation. 00:12:27.970 --> 00:12:30.509 That is the definition of a six -figure savings 00:12:30.509 --> 00:12:33.210 opportunity. But let's pause and acknowledge 00:12:33.210 --> 00:12:35.820 the elephant in the genomic room. I was just 00:12:35.820 --> 00:12:37.940 about to ask, we have to address the contrarian 00:12:37.940 --> 00:12:40.259 view. We do. Aren't we telling people to ignore 00:12:40.259 --> 00:12:42.779 the foundational principle of genetic progress? 00:12:43.159 --> 00:12:45.500 That's the argument. If you are a high -end seed 00:12:45.500 --> 00:12:48.440 stock operation or run an elite genomic program, 00:12:48.679 --> 00:12:51.320 you might argue that faster turnover gets you 00:12:51.320 --> 00:12:55.240 1 -2 % higher genetic gain per year by shortening 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:57.500 the generation interval. And that's the gospel 00:12:57.500 --> 00:13:00.399 for a lot of people in genetics. And that model 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:02.759 absolutely makes sense for that small percentage 00:13:02.759 --> 00:13:05.070 of the industry. Right, if your business is selling 00:13:05.070 --> 00:13:07.970 genetics. If your core business is selling genetics 00:13:07.970 --> 00:13:12.230 embryos, semen, top -end bull contracts, your 00:13:12.230 --> 00:13:15.490 incentive is to chase the top 1 % and turn your 00:13:15.490 --> 00:13:18.009 generations as fast as you possibly can. But 00:13:18.009 --> 00:13:20.710 for the vast majority of commodity herds milking 00:13:20.710 --> 00:13:23.870 into a bulk tank, does that 1 % theoretical genetic 00:13:23.870 --> 00:13:27.190 bump seven years from now outweigh the immediate, 00:13:27.389 --> 00:13:30.649 tangible cash flow benefit of saving $180 ,000 00:13:30.649 --> 00:13:33.840 this year? No, it absolutely does not. In this 00:13:33.840 --> 00:13:37.399 commodity market, cash flow stability beats maximizing 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:40.019 theoretical genetic progress every single time. 00:13:40.139 --> 00:13:42.659 It's about surviving and paying the bills. And 00:13:42.659 --> 00:13:44.759 there are other costs. Plus, high turnover itself 00:13:44.759 --> 00:13:47.379 creates compounding costs. You have a constant 00:13:47.379 --> 00:13:49.779 influx of first lactation animals, which means 00:13:49.779 --> 00:13:52.299 your herd has higher variability, requires more 00:13:52.299 --> 00:13:54.340 intense and careful transition cow management, 00:13:54.539 --> 00:13:57.340 and demands specialized labor for that constantly 00:13:57.340 --> 00:14:00.309 cycling group. That's a great point. High replacement 00:14:00.309 --> 00:14:02.990 rates force you to run a higher percentage of 00:14:02.990 --> 00:14:05.490 the most fragile group, the first calvers, all 00:14:05.490 --> 00:14:08.610 the time. Right. The durable cow stabilizes your 00:14:08.610 --> 00:14:11.120 herd and reduces your risk exposure. Okay, so 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:14.000 this overwhelming shift in economics translates 00:14:14.000 --> 00:14:16.860 directly into a physical shift in what we should 00:14:16.860 --> 00:14:19.279 be selecting for. It has to. Let's get visual. 00:14:19.440 --> 00:14:22.179 We've always been taught the dairy triangle ideal. 00:14:22.860 --> 00:14:24.960 Define that for us and then tell us what the 00:14:24.960 --> 00:14:26.799 power rectangle looks like and why it's better. 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:30.879 The dairy triangle is the classic show cow. Extremely 00:14:30.879 --> 00:14:34.259 tall, highly angular, possessing sharp dairy 00:14:34.259 --> 00:14:37.379 character, and a refined, almost delicate bone 00:14:37.379 --> 00:14:39.899 structure. An athlete. She looks like she can 00:14:39.899 --> 00:14:43.139 convert every gram of feed into milk, and she's 00:14:43.139 --> 00:14:44.720 impressive on the move. She looks like a high 00:14:44.720 --> 00:14:46.200 -performance athlete. She looks like she could 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:48.700 float on air, but maybe break if she lands wrong. 00:14:48.840 --> 00:14:51.379 Precisely. The power rectangle is totally different. 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:54.340 She is moderate, and frame critical word there, 00:14:54.440 --> 00:14:57.320 moderate. She has a wide chest, a strong heart 00:14:57.320 --> 00:15:00.450 girth, and plenty of barrel capacity. She looks 00:15:00.450 --> 00:15:03.029 less angular, maybe even a little more robust. 00:15:03.370 --> 00:15:06.350 She's built for durability, not finesse. So she's 00:15:06.350 --> 00:15:08.529 the heavy -duty utility vehicle of the barn. 00:15:08.730 --> 00:15:10.649 That's it. She's got the torque and capacity 00:15:10.649 --> 00:15:12.889 to handle the workload, unlike the race car dairy 00:15:12.889 --> 00:15:15.490 triangle, which might look flashy but breaks 00:15:15.490 --> 00:15:18.129 down on rough terrain. And this isn't just, you 00:15:18.129 --> 00:15:20.389 know, personal preference or some old wives tale. 00:15:20.549 --> 00:15:23.269 There's solid genetic evidence supporting this 00:15:23.269 --> 00:15:26.049 shift away from extreme stature. There is. I 00:15:26.049 --> 00:15:28.330 saw the study cited the Czech Journal of Animal 00:15:28.330 --> 00:15:31.409 Science and the 2021 Review and Frontiers in 00:15:31.409 --> 00:15:34.629 Genetics. What did that data show? What's fascinating 00:15:34.629 --> 00:15:37.070 is the negative genetic correlation they found 00:15:37.070 --> 00:15:39.789 between stature and functional longevity traits. 00:15:40.320 --> 00:15:42.940 In plain English. In plain English, the selection 00:15:42.940 --> 00:15:45.440 pressure we placed on making cows taller made 00:15:45.440 --> 00:15:48.080 them less likely to stay in the herd. Wow. They 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:50.600 might look impressive, but the research suggests 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:52.340 they are simply harder to keep in the system 00:15:52.340 --> 00:15:54.759 because their frame size is working against the 00:15:54.759 --> 00:15:57.879 environment we put them in. But why? Why does 00:15:57.879 --> 00:16:00.340 the power rectangle work better in a high throughput, 00:16:00.600 --> 00:16:03.220 free stall environment? Give us the practical 00:16:03.220 --> 00:16:06.159 fit in the facility. comes down to physics and 00:16:06.159 --> 00:16:08.840 logistics, and specifically the free stall dimensions. 00:16:09.259 --> 00:16:13.000 Okay. That moderate -framed cow lies down and 00:16:13.000 --> 00:16:15.919 rises up far more comfortably in standard stall 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:19.220 sizes. If she's too tall, her hocks and knees 00:16:19.220 --> 00:16:21.659 are constantly scraping the concrete or the curb 00:16:21.659 --> 00:16:24.360 when she tries to reposition herself. Which radically 00:16:24.360 --> 00:16:26.820 increases her injury risk. And leads directly 00:16:26.820 --> 00:16:29.200 to lameness. So you're saying a cow built like 00:16:29.200 --> 00:16:32.379 a brick outhouse just fits the typical barn dimensions 00:16:32.379 --> 00:16:35.220 better than one built like a skyscraper. That's 00:16:35.220 --> 00:16:37.799 exactly it. The freestall is designed for the 00:16:37.799 --> 00:16:40.259 rectangle, not the triangle. And what about feed? 00:16:40.679 --> 00:16:43.480 Furthermore, the power rectangle has the capacity... 00:16:43.740 --> 00:16:46.679 wider barrel and chest to handle the high forage 00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:48.919 rations we're pushing today because she literally 00:16:48.919 --> 00:16:51.480 has more room and capacity and lung room. More 00:16:51.480 --> 00:16:53.580 internal space. We're asking cows to process 00:16:53.580 --> 00:16:56.080 massive amounts of feed. She needs the internal 00:16:56.080 --> 00:16:58.700 space to do that efficiently, which reduces the 00:16:58.700 --> 00:17:00.480 metabolic stress that leads to early culling. 00:17:00.580 --> 00:17:02.700 Let's talk about that European experience you 00:17:02.700 --> 00:17:05.619 mentioned. Did European operations formally pull 00:17:05.619 --> 00:17:08.740 back from extreme stature? Or did farmers just 00:17:08.740 --> 00:17:11.660 realize the problem? It was absolutely an engineering 00:17:11.660 --> 00:17:14.960 realization that drove the genetic change. As 00:17:14.960 --> 00:17:17.420 they modernized and standardized freestalls, 00:17:17.559 --> 00:17:20.319 the tallest cows were overrepresented on the 00:17:20.319 --> 00:17:23.299 cull list. For what reasons? for foot and leg 00:17:23.299 --> 00:17:26.900 issues, calving difficulty, and metabolic problems. 00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:29.220 They weren't abandoning type, but they recognized 00:17:29.220 --> 00:17:32.220 that the cow had outgrown the standard housing. 00:17:32.359 --> 00:17:34.440 So they were forced to shift. They were forced 00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:36.740 to shift their selection to a balanced cow that 00:17:36.740 --> 00:17:38.960 fit their cubicles and their transition programs 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:41.339 because they couldn't afford to rebuild every 00:17:41.339 --> 00:17:44.319 barn just to accommodate an elite two -inch gain 00:17:44.319 --> 00:17:47.170 in height. That is the ultimate lesson in breeding 00:17:47.170 --> 00:17:50.109 for your barn, not for the banner. If your cow 00:17:50.109 --> 00:17:52.269 is constantly fighting the environment you put 00:17:52.269 --> 00:17:54.710 her in, you are guaranteeing higher costs in 00:17:54.710 --> 00:17:57.029 injury and labor. The power rectangle is simply 00:17:57.029 --> 00:17:58.930 engineered for the modern facility constraints. 00:17:59.250 --> 00:18:02.069 She is the cow of longevity. Speaking of high 00:18:02.069 --> 00:18:04.309 costs, we have to talk about the silent epidemic 00:18:04.309 --> 00:18:07.910 in the dairy industry. Lameness. This is not 00:18:07.910 --> 00:18:10.690 just a secondary welfare issue. It's an absolute 00:18:10.690 --> 00:18:14.339 black hole for profitability. If the $3 ,000 00:18:14.339 --> 00:18:17.859 heifer is the cost of entry, lameness is the 00:18:17.859 --> 00:18:21.000 cost of failure. Dr. Jan Shearer, the go -to 00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:23.740 expert in this field, rightly calls lameness 00:18:23.740 --> 00:18:26.059 the single most important welfare and economic 00:18:26.059 --> 00:18:29.180 issue affecting dairy cattle. And the cost figures 00:18:29.180 --> 00:18:32.859 are chilling. They are. Penn State's analysis 00:18:32.859 --> 00:18:37.359 put the comprehensive cost per case at $336 .91. 00:18:37.779 --> 00:18:40.299 And the University of Calgary model came in right 00:18:40.299 --> 00:18:43.859 around that. At $330. Yeah. Let's break down 00:18:43.859 --> 00:18:46.759 where that $330 goes, because it's not just the 00:18:46.759 --> 00:18:49.059 cost of a block or a wrap. No, it's everything. 00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:51.400 The cost includes the initial treatment and supplies, 00:18:51.700 --> 00:18:54.480 the loss in milk production. Which starts before 00:18:54.480 --> 00:18:56.940 you even see it. Right, before the cow is clinically 00:18:56.940 --> 00:18:59.880 visible. It includes the massive negative reproductive 00:18:59.880 --> 00:19:03.319 impact. A laying cow is too uncomfortable to 00:19:03.319 --> 00:19:05.960 stand properly for insemination and often takes 00:19:05.960 --> 00:19:08.539 longer to breed back. And the culling risk. And 00:19:08.539 --> 00:19:11.460 the increased likelihood that this cow will be 00:19:11.460 --> 00:19:14.539 culled prematurely, forcing you to buy another 00:19:14.539 --> 00:19:18.279 $3 ,000 replacement. It's compounding loss. But 00:19:18.279 --> 00:19:20.559 the real crisis isn't the cost per case, it's 00:19:20.559 --> 00:19:23.680 the detection gap. This is the hidden profit 00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:26.180 league that should keep managers up at night. 00:19:26.359 --> 00:19:28.559 It should. What's the common farmer estimate 00:19:28.559 --> 00:19:32.000 for lameness prevalence? Most farmers I talk 00:19:32.000 --> 00:19:33.980 to, and historically I'm guilty of this too, 00:19:34.250 --> 00:19:36.230 estimate their lameness prevalence in the comfortable 00:19:36.230 --> 00:19:39.609 single digits. Maybe 5%, 8%. You only count the 00:19:39.609 --> 00:19:41.950 ones you're actively treating. Exactly. And the 00:19:41.950 --> 00:19:45.210 reality, when trained observers perform formal 00:19:45.210 --> 00:19:47.710 locomotion scoring. The reality is that trained 00:19:47.710 --> 00:19:50.950 observers find 20 to 30 % of cows are clinically 00:19:50.950 --> 00:19:53.980 lame. The industry average is widely accepted 00:19:53.980 --> 00:19:56.779 as 20 to 25 percent. And here is the terrifying 00:19:56.779 --> 00:19:59.859 statistic. Farmers relying on casual observation 00:19:59.859 --> 00:20:02.819 during milking or feeding catch only about one 00:20:02.819 --> 00:20:05.579 in four lame cows compared to systematic scoring. 00:20:05.779 --> 00:20:08.480 Wait, one in four? That German study cited in 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.160 our sources showed farmers catching only 24 to 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:14.319 45 percent of cases. And the Australian study 00:20:14.319 --> 00:20:17.470 was even worse. Farmers estimating 5 % when the 00:20:17.470 --> 00:20:20.930 trained systematic scoring showed 19%. We are 00:20:20.930 --> 00:20:23.529 essentially flying blind on three quarters of 00:20:23.529 --> 00:20:26.289 our lame herd. And this is the real chronic drain 00:20:26.289 --> 00:20:29.890 on your profit. The most expensive cows are not 00:20:29.890 --> 00:20:32.670 the obvious three -legged score four or five 00:20:32.670 --> 00:20:34.390 cows you're already treating. Because at least 00:20:34.390 --> 00:20:35.990 they're identified. Right. They're receiving 00:20:35.990 --> 00:20:39.190 care. The most expensive cows are the undetected 00:20:39.190 --> 00:20:41.609 ones. The locomotion score two or three animals. 00:20:42.079 --> 00:20:43.920 Let's define that jargon for the listener. What 00:20:43.920 --> 00:20:46.900 is a locomotion score two or three? So score 00:20:46.900 --> 00:20:50.019 one is perfectly normal. Score five is non -weight 00:20:50.019 --> 00:20:53.119 -bearing. Score two is the subtle one, slightly 00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:56.059 uneven, hesitant, or reluctant to fully bear 00:20:56.059 --> 00:20:58.940 weight on one limb, especially on a turn. But 00:20:58.940 --> 00:21:01.480 not obvious on a straightaway. Not obvious. Score 00:21:01.480 --> 00:21:04.319 three is clearly lame but still walking, usually 00:21:04.319 --> 00:21:07.349 with an arched back when standing. These animals 00:21:07.349 --> 00:21:09.390 are the problem because they're just off enough 00:21:09.390 --> 00:21:11.549 to drastically change their behavior. How so? 00:21:11.710 --> 00:21:13.890 They eat fewer meals, they spend less time at 00:21:13.890 --> 00:21:15.930 the bunk, they take longer to breed back because 00:21:15.930 --> 00:21:18.369 they're uncomfortable, and they silently drain 00:21:18.369 --> 00:21:20.950 staff time without being obviously flagged for 00:21:20.950 --> 00:21:23.910 intervention. So we're feeding and housing a 00:21:23.910 --> 00:21:26.890 cow that is operating at 80 % efficiency and 00:21:26.890 --> 00:21:28.930 we don't even know she needs help. Which delays 00:21:28.930 --> 00:21:31.069 treatment and compounds the injury. Exactly. 00:21:31.130 --> 00:21:33.089 And that compounds the labor burden, which is 00:21:33.089 --> 00:21:35.289 already stretched thin. It's a massive cost of 00:21:35.289 --> 00:21:37.539 personnel. Every time you have to fetch a cow, 00:21:37.660 --> 00:21:40.440 or handle her carefully in the trim chute, or 00:21:40.440 --> 00:21:43.559 go back for repeated NSA fee checks. Talk about 00:21:43.559 --> 00:21:46.259 NSAids for a second. Yeah, non -steroidal, anti 00:21:46.259 --> 00:21:48.859 -inflammatory drugs. They're essential for pain 00:21:48.859 --> 00:21:51.279 relief and recovery, but they take staff time. 00:21:51.460 --> 00:21:54.759 A lot of it. They do. In a large herd, managing 00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:57.279 the records and the follow -up for every NSAV 00:21:57.279 --> 00:22:00.539 protocol takes dedicated time. If a thousand 00:22:00.539 --> 00:22:03.259 cow herd manages to reduce its lameness incidence 00:22:03.259 --> 00:22:07.799 from 25 % down to 18%. Which is entirely achievable. 00:22:07.940 --> 00:22:10.759 Entirely achievable by breeding for better durability 00:22:10.759 --> 00:22:14.440 and better floors. That's 70 fewer cases per 00:22:14.440 --> 00:22:18.079 year. 70 fewer cases means fewer hospital pen 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:21.519 days, fewer after -hours treatments, and crucially, 00:22:21.579 --> 00:22:24.829 less burnout for your best staff. It's a quality 00:22:24.829 --> 00:22:26.869 of life improvement for your people, directly 00:22:26.869 --> 00:22:29.529 tied back to the type of genetics you select. 00:22:29.730 --> 00:22:32.730 The durable cow simplifies management. So we 00:22:32.730 --> 00:22:35.009 know we need to breed for longevity, durability, 00:22:35.150 --> 00:22:37.990 and low maintenance. The power rectangle. Right. 00:22:38.069 --> 00:22:41.750 Where does that leave our classic genetic indexes? 00:22:41.750 --> 00:22:44.789 Are we throwing out net merit and TPI? No. Absolutely 00:22:44.789 --> 00:22:47.609 not. The indexes are tools, not rules, and they 00:22:47.609 --> 00:22:50.670 are encouragingly adapting to this new economic 00:22:50.670 --> 00:22:52.750 reality. They are following the money trail we 00:22:52.750 --> 00:22:54.750 just laid out. Okay, let's look at the Net Merit 00:22:54.750 --> 00:22:58.430 2025 updates from the USDA ARS. How are they 00:22:58.430 --> 00:23:01.089 adapting to the $3 ,000 cow? They are still weighting 00:23:01.089 --> 00:23:03.750 milk, fat, and protein heavily because production 00:23:03.750 --> 00:23:05.970 is still the core revenue stream. Of course. 00:23:06.150 --> 00:23:09.410 But now they include feed saved as an economic 00:23:09.410 --> 00:23:11.650 trait, and critically, they apply a negative 00:23:11.650 --> 00:23:13.829 weight on body weight composite. A negative weight 00:23:13.829 --> 00:23:15.769 on body weight composite. That is the genetic 00:23:15.769 --> 00:23:18.769 community saying officially the big, tall cow 00:23:18.769 --> 00:23:20.970 might not be the most profitable cow anymore. 00:23:21.269 --> 00:23:23.829 It's a fundamental shift in philosophy. It is. 00:23:23.970 --> 00:23:26.589 They are acknowledging that the bigger the animal, 00:23:26.710 --> 00:23:29.609 the more feed she requires for maintenance, and 00:23:29.609 --> 00:23:31.829 the higher the risk of fitting poorly into standardized 00:23:31.829 --> 00:23:34.849 freestalls. This negative weighting nudges selection 00:23:34.849 --> 00:23:37.640 toward a more moderate size. Confirming that 00:23:37.640 --> 00:23:40.240 the durability focus is now institutionalized 00:23:40.240 --> 00:23:44.720 in our top index. And TPI is also adapting, balancing 00:23:44.720 --> 00:23:47.059 production with those functional traits like 00:23:47.059 --> 00:23:49.799 feet and legs, daughter fertility, and productive 00:23:49.799 --> 00:23:52.759 life. But the real insight comes in how successful 00:23:52.759 --> 00:23:54.900 farmers are using these tools. It's not just 00:23:54.900 --> 00:23:57.440 running down a top NM list anymore. No, not at 00:23:57.440 --> 00:24:00.039 all. I see three layers of application in the 00:24:00.039 --> 00:24:02.799 most successful large -scale herds. Okay, layer 00:24:02.799 --> 00:24:05.980 one. First, they use net merit or TPI as the 00:24:05.980 --> 00:24:09.390 initial. broad profitability filter. Is this 00:24:09.390 --> 00:24:11.829 bold genetically sound and economically viable? 00:24:12.029 --> 00:24:13.789 And the second layer. They layer on a commercial 00:24:13.789 --> 00:24:16.150 health or wellness index. These indexes bundle 00:24:16.150 --> 00:24:18.869 traits like resistance to mastitis, metritis, 00:24:19.029 --> 00:24:22.170 ketosis, DA, and lameness. So you're trying to 00:24:22.170 --> 00:24:24.289 avoid the problems from the start? You're identifying 00:24:24.289 --> 00:24:26.829 animals likely to incur lower lifetime health 00:24:26.829 --> 00:24:30.960 costs. especially given that $300 plus lameness 00:24:30.960 --> 00:24:33.759 figure we talked about. They want the cow that 00:24:33.759 --> 00:24:36.599 is genetically predisposed to not end up in the 00:24:36.599 --> 00:24:38.920 hospital pen. And the third layer is what you 00:24:38.920 --> 00:24:41.759 call the no knockout traits rule, which I love 00:24:41.759 --> 00:24:44.079 because it's so practical. That's the farm filter 00:24:44.079 --> 00:24:47.220 and it's non -negotiable. Even if a bull ranks 00:24:47.220 --> 00:24:50.019 high on the overall index, if he is extreme for 00:24:50.019 --> 00:24:52.480 stature, or if he is negative on daughter fertility, 00:24:52.900 --> 00:24:55.759 or if he is weak on feet and legs, he comes off 00:24:55.759 --> 00:24:58.259 the list. full stop so you have to tailor the 00:24:58.259 --> 00:25:01.200 index to your specific operational constraints 00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:04.160 if you have older free stalls you need better 00:25:04.160 --> 00:25:06.259 feet and legs than the national average regardless 00:25:06.259 --> 00:25:09.059 of that bull's overall nm score you were breeding 00:25:09.059 --> 00:25:11.930 for your facility not the industry ideal. And 00:25:11.930 --> 00:25:14.250 for the very largest herds, that customization 00:25:14.250 --> 00:25:16.990 goes even deeper. Yeah, they actually build custom 00:25:16.990 --> 00:25:19.509 indexes based specifically on their own farm's 00:25:19.509 --> 00:25:22.170 cost structure, their feed costs, their call 00:25:22.170 --> 00:25:24.329 values, and their unique labor structure. It's 00:25:24.329 --> 00:25:26.349 a complete shift from index rank is everything 00:25:26.349 --> 00:25:29.809 to indexes are tools we adapt to our system. 00:25:30.089 --> 00:25:32.470 It is the ultimate farmer -first approach to 00:25:32.470 --> 00:25:35.650 genetics. But being that selective requires capital 00:25:35.650 --> 00:25:38.970 up front, usually for sexed semen or genomic 00:25:38.970 --> 00:25:41.380 testing. Which brings us to the financial engine 00:25:41.380 --> 00:25:44.259 of this durability shift. The highly intentional 00:25:44.259 --> 00:25:46.680 use of beef on dairy. Here's where it gets really 00:25:46.680 --> 00:25:49.519 interesting. Beef on dairy is no longer a trendy 00:25:49.519 --> 00:25:52.900 side hustle. No, it's the dedicated funding mechanism 00:25:52.900 --> 00:25:56.759 for generating better dairy genetics. Let's talk 00:25:56.759 --> 00:25:58.859 about the premium they're commanding. It's substantial. 00:25:59.240 --> 00:26:02.160 And stable. We are seeing dairy beef crossbred 00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:05.789 calves commanding around $15 per pound. versus 00:26:05.789 --> 00:26:08.170 maybe $10 for straight Holstein bull calves. 00:26:08.369 --> 00:26:11.609 That's a 50 % premium. Industry analysis confirms 00:26:11.609 --> 00:26:15.009 it results in a premium of $350 to $500 more 00:26:15.009 --> 00:26:17.869 per calf. The beef market is turning what was 00:26:17.869 --> 00:26:20.849 traditionally a liability into a profitable terminal 00:26:20.849 --> 00:26:24.150 product. So how are the system herds strategically 00:26:24.150 --> 00:26:26.509 using this tool to breed the power rectangle? 00:26:26.950 --> 00:26:29.720 It's precision breeding, pure and simple. They're 00:26:29.720 --> 00:26:32.940 using sex Holstein semen on only the top 30 to 00:26:32.940 --> 00:26:35.140 40 percent of their best cows and heifers. The 00:26:35.140 --> 00:26:37.119 ones with the best traits already. The ones with 00:26:37.119 --> 00:26:39.819 the best productive life, fertility and structural 00:26:39.819 --> 00:26:42.720 traits to generate the next wave of replacements. 00:26:43.339 --> 00:26:45.200 They are only breeding replacements from the 00:26:45.200 --> 00:26:47.359 cows that are proven to stay out of trouble. 00:26:47.539 --> 00:26:49.859 So the selection is hyper -focused on the best 00:26:49.859 --> 00:26:52.619 of the best to create those $3 ,000 heifers that 00:26:52.619 --> 00:26:55.480 will actually last five years. Exactly. And the 00:26:55.480 --> 00:26:58.039 beef semen goes on the rest, the later lactation 00:26:58.039 --> 00:27:01.160 cows, the animals with poor reproductive performance, 00:27:01.400 --> 00:27:03.759 or those whose daughters have historically been 00:27:03.759 --> 00:27:06.279 harder to keep. And that beef check funds the 00:27:06.279 --> 00:27:10.450 whole program. $50 to $500 beef check you get 00:27:10.450 --> 00:27:13.650 nine months from now is the capital funding needed 00:27:13.650 --> 00:27:16.230 to buy the highly selective genetics and the 00:27:16.230 --> 00:27:19.329 sexed semen that create the durable heifer. It 00:27:19.329 --> 00:27:22.769 is a brilliant self -funding cycle for durability. 00:27:23.150 --> 00:27:25.109 All right, we've covered a ton of ground, from 00:27:25.109 --> 00:27:27.490 the horrifying cost of replacements and the two 00:27:27.490 --> 00:27:30.509 -year price forecast to the quiet financial drain 00:27:30.509 --> 00:27:33.789 of lameness. Let's make this actionable. Let's 00:27:33.789 --> 00:27:35.630 do it. A farmer just finished milking and is 00:27:35.630 --> 00:27:37.890 driving to the feed store. What are the three 00:27:37.890 --> 00:27:39.849 most critical things they need to remember from 00:27:39.849 --> 00:27:44.109 today? Okay, takeaway one. Longevity is a front 00:27:44.109 --> 00:27:47.450 seat economic driver. It's not a secondary trait. 00:27:47.589 --> 00:27:50.230 It's the primary way to save six figures annually. 00:27:50.549 --> 00:27:53.970 So immediate action this week. Calculate your 00:27:53.970 --> 00:27:57.049 current early lacation call rate. How many cows 00:27:57.049 --> 00:28:00.700 are leaving before 60 or 100 days in milk? That 00:28:00.700 --> 00:28:02.680 metric tells you exactly where your transition 00:28:02.680 --> 00:28:05.420 problems are most acute. This is your largest 00:28:05.420 --> 00:28:08.799 capital risk. Medium -term strategy, say three 00:28:08.799 --> 00:28:11.400 to six months. Start periodic locomotion scoring, 00:28:11.619 --> 00:28:14.380 even if it's informal at first, to track lameness 00:28:14.380 --> 00:28:17.019 prevalence. Remember, the data says you're only 00:28:17.019 --> 00:28:19.180 catching one in four right now. Closing that 00:28:19.180 --> 00:28:21.880 detection gap is the fastest way to save $330 00:28:21.880 --> 00:28:24.519 per incident. And long -term positioning, one 00:28:24.519 --> 00:28:26.700 to two years out. Set a realistic, sustainable 00:28:26.700 --> 00:28:29.849 target for your replacement rate. That mid -20s 00:28:29.849 --> 00:28:33.230 range, say 24 to 26 percent, is entirely achievable 00:28:33.230 --> 00:28:34.869 with system fit breeding. And that's the range 00:28:34.869 --> 00:28:37.450 that immediately generates that $180 ,000 savings 00:28:37.450 --> 00:28:40.369 opportunity. Great. Takeaway two. Breed for your 00:28:40.369 --> 00:28:43.049 barn, not the banner. This is the power rectangle 00:28:43.049 --> 00:28:45.730 concept in action. Yeah, the core concept is 00:28:45.730 --> 00:28:49.650 the ideal cow is moderate, sound, and low maintenance. 00:28:49.990 --> 00:28:53.049 She's built to stay in your stalls, not to impress 00:28:53.049 --> 00:28:56.220 the judge. Immediate action this week. Review 00:28:56.220 --> 00:28:58.660 your current sire list and eliminate any sires 00:28:58.660 --> 00:29:00.960 that are extreme for stature or weak on feet 00:29:00.960 --> 00:29:03.740 and legs, regardless of how high their overall 00:29:03.740 --> 00:29:07.140 index rank is. Apply that no -knockout traits 00:29:07.140 --> 00:29:09.839 rule immediately based on your specific barn. 00:29:10.059 --> 00:29:12.660 And medium term? Three to six months. When you 00:29:12.660 --> 00:29:15.339 talk to your genetic supplier, ask very specific 00:29:15.339 --> 00:29:18.220 questions. Which bulls offer the best mix of 00:29:18.220 --> 00:29:20.460 productive life, daughter fertility, and health 00:29:20.460 --> 00:29:23.519 traits at a size that specifically fits my freestalls? 00:29:23.880 --> 00:29:25.559 Avoiding that negative body weight composite. 00:29:25.799 --> 00:29:27.480 Make them prove the fit for your environment. 00:29:27.579 --> 00:29:29.819 Long -term positioning for that. Shift your selection 00:29:29.819 --> 00:29:33.059 emphasis. Don't rely solely on net merit or TPI. 00:29:33.440 --> 00:29:35.720 Combine them strategically with commercial health 00:29:35.720 --> 00:29:38.559 or wellness indices. You need to institutionalize 00:29:38.559 --> 00:29:41.059 the idea that longevity is now a six -figure 00:29:41.059 --> 00:29:43.039 savings opportunity and your breeding program 00:29:43.039 --> 00:29:45.500 needs to reflect that priority. Okay, last one. 00:29:45.559 --> 00:29:48.500 Takeaway three. Fund durability with beef. Use 00:29:48.500 --> 00:29:51.099 specialized breeding tools intentionally. Immediate 00:29:51.099 --> 00:29:53.700 action this week. Pull your last three years 00:29:53.700 --> 00:29:57.440 of culling reasons. Identify your top three causes 00:29:57.440 --> 00:30:01.140 of death or forced culls. Which genetic levers 00:30:01.140 --> 00:30:04.460 feet, futility, or utter health will reduce the 00:30:04.460 --> 00:30:07.460 most expensive exits? Focus your breeding effort 00:30:07.460 --> 00:30:10.160 there first. Medium -term strategy. Based on 00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:12.200 your current pregnancy rate and replacement needs, 00:30:12.519 --> 00:30:15.279 establish a clear percentage split for your semen 00:30:15.279 --> 00:30:18.900 inventory. How much sex dairy, conventional dairy, 00:30:19.079 --> 00:30:22.410 and beef semen? Start using sexed semen only 00:30:22.410 --> 00:30:26.009 on your top 30 to 40 % of best animals to concentrate 00:30:26.009 --> 00:30:28.970 those durability genes. And long -term, one to 00:30:28.970 --> 00:30:31.750 two years. View that beef on dairy premium, that 00:30:31.750 --> 00:30:35.730 $350 to $500 per crossbred calf, as the dedicated 00:30:35.730 --> 00:30:38.410 capital funding needed for more selective, longevity 00:30:38.410 --> 00:30:40.470 -focused dairy genetics three years down the 00:30:40.470 --> 00:30:42.789 road. You're using the beef market to pay for 00:30:42.789 --> 00:30:44.930 the durability of your future dairy herd. That's 00:30:44.930 --> 00:30:46.529 powerful. Instead of asking, what's the most 00:30:46.529 --> 00:30:48.430 impressive cow I can breed and put on a banner? 00:30:48.750 --> 00:30:51.450 We should be asking, what kind of cow is physically 00:30:51.450 --> 00:30:54.450 engineered to thrive in my specific barns, on 00:30:54.450 --> 00:30:56.970 my ration, with the people I realistically have 00:30:56.970 --> 00:30:59.930 running the show? Because that cow, the durable, 00:31:00.029 --> 00:31:02.970 low -maintenance system cow, is the one who pays 00:31:02.970 --> 00:31:05.250 the bills. This has been another Bullvine podcast 00:31:05.250 --> 00:31:07.690 from The Bullvine Podcast. For more straight 00:31:07.690 --> 00:31:10.049 -talking industry analysis and to read the original 00:31:10.049 --> 00:31:11.950 feature article about the rise of the system 00:31:11.950 --> 00:31:16.630 cow, head to www .thebullvine .com. Subscribe 00:31:16.630 --> 00:31:18.650 wherever you get podcasts. We're out with new 00:31:18.650 --> 00:31:20.769 episodes every day and upcoming topics will be 00:31:20.769 --> 00:31:23.710 diving deep into the true ROI of robotic milking 00:31:23.710 --> 00:31:26.089 systems and navigating the complexity of carbon 00:31:26.089 --> 00:31:28.069 accounting on the modern dairy. We'll see you 00:31:28.069 --> 00:31:28.450 next time.