Breaking free from the chains of the past Where
truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law
waiting on some printed page We're charting new
ground in the digital age From genomic codes
to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold
them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight
we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast,
where we cut through the dairy industry noise
to get you the insights that actually matter
for your operation. And today we're diving into
what we're calling the December Reckoning. That's
a strong word. It is, but it's deserved. The
new genetic evaluations just dropped across North
America and Europe, and this wasn't just a reshuffle,
it was a detonation. Detonation is exactly the
word I've been using since the numbers hit my
desk. Look, our mission today is... It's critical.
We are analyzing the December 2025 global Holstein
rankings. Right. But let's be brutally honest
about the stakes right now. If you were still
relying on your genetic playbook from last August.
Your sourcing list, your favorite goals. All
of it. It is officially obsolete. This isn't
about minor fluctuations. This is about seismic
shifts that are going to redefine your profitability
for 2026. Exactly. Relying on that outdated data
is probably the fastest way to erode your margins
next year. A global bloodbath this cycle. A bloodbath.
Sires that were untouchable, commanding premium
prices, backing entire breeding strategies. They
just cratered overnight. And these weren't errors.
This was the risk materializing. And I think
there are two massive stories we have to dissect
here. First, the sheer volatility that just slammed
the international markets. We saw untouchable
genomic leaders get wiped out. Wiped out is right.
And second, the blia. I mean, the massive, unprecedented
consolidation of the gene pool happening right
here in North America. It's terrifying in a way.
We need to show you exactly which high profile
sires melted down and maybe more importantly,
what that phrase 75 percent reliability actually
means when the numbers don't hold up. This deep
dive is about protecting your bottom line. And
ensuring your herd is resilient for the future.
Let's jump straight into the physics of the collapse.
Let's do it. We have preached the principle of
genomic volatility since, well, since day one.
The idea that predictions are just that. They're
estimates, not guarantees. Right. This December
cycle, though, that principle stopped being some
theoretical warning, and it turned into brutal
financial reality. We saw it across multiple
international indexes. And I hear that number
all the time. 75 % reliable. Especially when
we're talking about these young, high -flying
genomic bulls. It sounds safe, doesn't it? It
sounds great. Yeah. Most people hear 75 % and
they treat it as a near certainty, especially
when the upside looks so incredible. But you
have to remind people what that other 25 % represents.
It represents a one in four chance of deviating
significantly from the prediction as actual daughter
data starts to roll in. Significantly. And more
importantly, we have to talk about the standard
error of prediction or the SEP. That's the statistical
range the actual proof is likely to fall within.
When we see these dramatic index drops, they
aren't some black swan. event. It's not a fluke.
No, it's the inherent risk materializing exactly
as the statistics predicted it could. It's the
hard truth of early selection. And December just
exposed that vulnerability in the harshest way
possible. That's the analytical view. The practical
view is it's financial ruin for some of the seed
stock guys who banked everything on these bulls.
We aren't talking about some mid -range sires
here. No, these are the absolute darlings, the
ones commanding premium prices based entirely
on index hype. So let's name names. Where do
we start? Let's start in Europe. The damage was
immediate. Look first at Switzerland, which uses
the ISET, or International Selection Efficiency
Trait Index. The bull was Sussmaron, Boston.
I know the name. He was the former number one
sire there, right? Untouchable in August at a
massive plus 1645 ISET. That's the one. And what
happened in December? I'm waiting for it. He
suffered a stunning, almost unbelievable 52 -point
ISET collapse, dropped him all the way down to
plus 1593. 52 points. Now, for our listeners
who operate in U .S. or Canadian indexes, you
have to understand, 52 points in ISET is an enormous
correction. It's a complete recalibration of
projected genetic value. So for herds that invested
heavily in his semen, his embryos, based on that
summer ranking, That potential revenue worth
hundreds of thousands of dollars industry -wide,
it just evaporated overnight. 52 points. That
is absolutely gut -renting. Can you imagine being
a breeder or an investor who banked heavily on
that single bull just six months ago? You thought
you had the golden ticket. You bought at the
absolute peak, expecting those daughters to carry
that. plus $16 .45 value, only to wake up and
realize the projected value of all those pregnancies
just took a massive haircut. That's not a blip.
That is a heart attack for your balance sheet.
And if you think that's bad, wait till you hear
the story out of Italy. Oh, no. The volatility
there was even more pronounced, and it hit a
high -profile niche market. Italy uses the GPFT,
or Genomic Profitability Trade Index. Okay. The
star was a bull named KNO Ecuador P. He's a high
-profile polled sire, which means he carried
additional market value. So even more hype. Exactly.
He plummeted an incredible 98 GPFT points, dropped
from 49 .43 all the way down to 48 .45. 98 points.
That sounds like a complete technical failure,
not just a correction, that's a wipeout. It is
arguably the single most brutal proof correction
among any of the elite sires in this entire cycle.
It just goes to show what happens when market
enthusiasm, the hype, pushes a bull far beyond
what the reliability metrics should allow. The
risks just, it resolves itself. And often it
resolves itself violently. And it wasn't just
them. Scandinavia saw the same pattern, right?
In their NTM, the Nordic Total Merit Index. Absolutely.
And their index is heavily weighted towards health,
fertility, function, things that reflect their
high labor cost model. You'd think it would be
more stable. You would. But the former genomic
leader, Fly P, experienced a precipitous eight
point NTM drop. He went from plus 49 NTM down
to plus 41. Now, eight points doesn't sound as
dramatic as 98. It doesn't. But for the NTM index,
which is extremely stable and very difficult
to move, that's one of the sharpest single round
declines on record. for a bull that high up the
list. So it proves that no index, no matter how
balanced or function focused it is, is immune
to genomic correction when that 25 % risk matures.
Okay, let me put on my farmer hat for a second
because this is where the real pain hits home.
Go for it. I'm sitting here, I'm looking at a
semen tank full of straws that were bought at
a premium six months ago and now they've lost
50. 60, almost 100 points in projected value,
my first thought is, I got burned chasing the
hot new bull too hard. And that's a fair reaction.
I bought what was essentially a high -risk stock,
but I treated it like a guaranteed blue -chip
investment for my next heifer crop. And that
is the precise, practical lesson here. Genomic
selection gives you this enormous advantage of
compressed generation intervals. You get to genetic
gain faster, but the cost of failure is astronomical.
The excitement of maximizing that gain? pushes
us as breeders toward concentration. We rely
too heavily on one or two unproven superstars.
But the system is designed to correct as reliability
matures. The discipline required is to understand
that this volatility demands ruthless risk management.
It demands diversification. If you got burned
this December, it's a tough lesson, but it's
one that requires immediate action. Agreed. The
key takeaway here. Volatility is real. It materialized
with a vengeance. And if you concentrated your
risk, you'd be paid the price. You have to treat
that 75 % reliable sire like a portfolio investment,
not a single stock. Well said. So now let's shift
gears completely. Okay. If that first part was
about the devastating collapse of certain high
flyers, this next part is about the terrifying
rise of singular force and the market consolidation
that comes with it. Let's talk about the U .S.
market, where the genetic landscape isn't just
shuffling, it's narrowing. It is narrowing drastically
under one major program. Narrowing is an understatement.
It's turning into a virtual monopoly. And, you
know, frankly, you can't argue with the effectiveness
of the strategy. No, the results are there, but
you have to worry about the long -term implications.
Genesaurus isn't just winning. They are sweeping
the table in a way we haven't seen in decades.
The data is. It's historically staggering. We're
talking about net merit dollars, or NM, or the
U .S. dairy industry's primary profitability
index. The one most commercial guys live and
die by. Right. As of December, Genesource now
controls an astounding 22 of the top 30 net merit
spots. 22 out of 30. That represents a remarkable
73 % market share in the index that most U .S.
commercial dairies use to make their strategic
mating decisions. 73 percent. I mean, that concentration
of elite profit genetics is just it's unprecedented.
They have clearly cracked the code on what drives
profitability in the U .S. system. That balance
of production, health and longevity that NMO
prioritizes. And they hold the crown jewel. Genesource
Retrospect Et defends his number one NMR position
at a massive $1 ,296. He just embodies their
mastery of that total economic merit formula.
And it's not a one -off. Their pipeline is full.
Exactly. The most explosive newcomer was Sandan
on Call Eid. He debuts at number nine NMR and
number three GTPI with a commanding production
profile, 1845 milk, 151 fat, and 70 protein.
The sheer fact that one program can dominate
this intensely just shows relentless focus breeding.
Okay, let's stop right there because this is
the critical debate. This is the double -edged
sword. Analytically, I have to acknowledge it.
This concentration delivers elite, consistent,
and highly profitable results. It offers a clear,
repeatable path to high -profit genetics. It
does. For the commercial farmer who just wants
the best numbers today, it's a simple choice.
That's the pro argument. Efficiency and predictability.
But practically, I'm raising the alarm about
systemic risk. I get the efficiency, but... If
73 % of the elite genetics are flowing from the
same maternal lines using the same sire fathers,
where is our diversity in five years? That's
a billion dollar question. This concentration
feels like a ticking time bomb for inbreeding.
We've seen this before in history where dominant
bloodlines run too deep. The result is always
the same. Loss of resilience, compromised fertility.
Exactly. Reduced calf figure. It introduces a
systemic risk that goes way beyond an individual
bull's index score. I agree with the concern.
We have to emphasize that this high genetic ceiling
comes with a very high genetic constraint. While
the Genisaurus program is brilliant at maximizing
gain, that gain is being built on an increasingly
narrow foundation. We're essentially betting
the farm on the success and durability of just
a handful of maternal lines. That's a great way
to put it. And wait, let me push back on your
efficiency point for a second. Isn't high consolidation?
actually good for standardization and maximizing
short -term gain? You could make that argument.
Why should a commercial farmer worry about diversity?
That's always been a concern for the seed stock
breeders, right? If I'm just milking cows, why
does the breadth of the gene pool matter to my
milk check next year? That is a fundamentally
important question. And the answer is it matters
because the consequences of profound inbreeding
aren't subtle. They show up on the balance sheet.
They show up as reduced conception rates, fewer
live births, increased stillbirths, all measurable
costs to the commercial farmer. And beyond that,
a lack of diversity translates to vulnerability.
Environmental and health pressures. If the dominant
maternal lines all happen to share a weakness
to a new pathogen or a specific management stressor,
that 73 % market share means the entire US herd
is vulnerable. Genetic diversity is our insurance
against the unknown challenges of the future.
So while the seed stock guy is managing the immediate
inbreeding coefficient, the commercial guy is
the one who pays the price in herd health and
wasted semen costs five years from now. Exactly.
Which puts a huge premium on careful mating software.
And this isn't just an American thing, is it?
We are seeing these concentration echoes across
Europe. We are. Look at Switzerland again. The
foundational Game Day maternal line underpins
three of their top five, Iset Sires, Monset,
Boston, and Torchlight. The influence is enormous.
Same story, different country. And in the Netherlands,
where the focus is on functional longevity, the
Altasazel bloodline claims four of the top 10
proven sire positions. The top genetics in the
world are becoming highly centralized. So the
dominance of these bloodlines, Genasource, Gameday,
Altasazel, sends a clear signal. You must, absolutely
must, invest in ruthless inbreeding management.
It's non -negotiable now. You have to use your
mating programs to actively monitor and manage
those coefficients. Don't let the pursuit of
that 1296 NMN Eller score today destroy the genetic
foundation of your herd tomorrow. Protecting
genetic diversity is no longer a luxury for the
elite breeder. It's a foundational step for maintaining
fertility and long -term resilience for the commercial
farmer. Okay, let's shift our focus now to where
the cash register is ringing globally. Because
the evaluations this December were, they were
unambiguous. Components are now the defining
trait of profitability. Absolutely. The global
economic trend is crystal clear. Processor payments
are increasingly tied to milk solids, fat and
protein. It's just a reflection of consumer demand,
right? Less fluid milk, more cheese, more yogurt,
more butterfat. The index formula is simply reflecting
that economic reality on the ground. Right. So
for every U .S. or Canadian farmer listening,
your mantra right now has to be volume is vanity,
solids are sanity. I like that. Selecting for
high components is no longer an optional trait.
It is a direct, measurable path to maximizing
your revenue per hundredweight. because that's
where the premiums are. And this evaluation cycle
didn't just confirm the trend. It gave us the
new prototypes, the bulls that redefine what
high component production looks like at the elite
level. So who are the new kings of components?
In Canada and the US, the bull defining the new
component ceiling is beyond high level ET. Wow.
He vaulted an explosive 11 spots to number four
in Canada's LPI. And he claimed the number one
GTPI spot in the U .S. precisely because of his
exceptional component profile. OK, so give me
the specific numbers. What's making him so profitable?
We are talking about 165 kilograms of fat on
a high volume base alongside 78 kilograms of
protein. 165 kilos of fat. That production profile
proves that the old tradeoff, the idea that you
couldn't have extreme volume and extreme density.
is officially broken, you can have both. And
your milk check demands that you select for it.
It's fascinating because the market isn't just
rewarding high percentages anymore, but high
kilograms. He's moving a huge amount of fluid
milk that is also extremely rich. Exactly. But
we also saw the rise of the extreme percentage
specialist. Beyond Hooray It debuted at number
three LPI in Canada. And what's the profile?
He hits the percentage extremes with a plus 1
.0 % fat and a plus 0 .52 % protein. His profile
is tailor -made for herds targeting maximum premiums
in markets with strict percentage payment grids.
That's the difference between a farm just scraping
by on margin and a farm that's generating an
elite milk chick. The component density is the
key lever. And we see it everywhere. Look at
Germany, which uses the RZG index with its focus
on health and efficiency. The new genomic co
-leader, Saturn RDC, immediately distinguished
himself with a massive plus 0 .88 % fat alongside
excellent health traits. The global market is
rewarding this exact phenotype. It's a truly
global phenomenon. Italy's new international
genomic leader, De Novo Locust Iappi, he's at
54 .50 GPFT. He's also built on this component
philosophy. He is. He posts strong component
kilograms, plus 115 kilograms of fat, and plus
96 kilograms of protein. And the Netherlands.
In the Netherlands, they use the INET, their
total profit index. The standout is Genesource
Mistro. He has the highest INET at plus 799.
And if you dissect that score, what's driving
it? Components. Components. Plus 146 kilograms
of fat and plus... 84 kilograms of protein. The
correlation is just. It's undeniable. Selecting
for high fat and protein is now the most direct
path to maximizing your revenue. When you see
a bull like High Level posting 165 kilos of fat
or Hooray posting over 1 % fat, you're looking
at the new gold standard for dairy profitability.
These component specialists are not noosh bulls
anymore. They are the core revenue drivers, and
the index rankings are now clearly reflecting
that economic truth across every major dairy
market. The time for prioritizing volume alone
is over. If you aren't selecting aggressively
for components today, you are essentially leaving
cash on the table with every single milk check.
Shifting our focus back to Europe now, we often
see a mindset that prioritizes durability, function,
and trouble -free performance over just chasing
extreme index points or production volume. This
is the heart of what we call the invisible cow
philosophy. And it's critical for commercial
viability in these high cost labor environments.
It's the logical extension of systems that face
really high replacement costs and pressure on
efficiency. The invisible cow is the complete
antithesis of the show Ringstar. Right. The breeding
philosophy rewards balanced, moderate, functional
cattle. They're designed to thrive in real -world
commercial systems without creating management
headaches. So let's define this. What does the
invisible cow actually look like on the farm?
She's the cow that you don't notice. You don't
notice her during milking because her temperament
is calm and her utter health is perfect. You
don't notice her during breeding checks because
she cycles on time every time. You don't notice
her when the vet comes because she hasn't had
a single case of mystitis or a foot ulcer in
two years. She doesn't win the show. And she
might not even be the highest yielder in your
herd, but she stays in the herd for lactation
after lactation. Her true value, then, is only
visible when you check the bottom line. It's
the profit driven by low labor needs, minimal
vet bills, and low replacement costs. Precisely.
And the Netherlands, using their NBI or net value
index, they just completely validate this philosophy
with the absolute conquest of the Altazazel bloodline
in the proven rankings. Alta Zazzlesons claim
four of the top 10 NBI positions. That level
of dominance proves that the market is willing
to sacrifice a little bit of extreme production
for trouble -free... durable performance. It
does. It validates a breeding philosophy that
prioritizes robustness. And when you look at
their genomic lists, bulls have to deliver on
function. For example? Genosaurus Modi, for example.
He cracked the incredible plus 420 NBI ceiling
in the genomic ranks, but he did it while simultaneously
delivering phenomenal functional longevity. And
what's the number on that? An increase of plus
872 days of projected lifespan. 872 days. That
figure is why it's mind boggling. That means
Modi's daughters are projected to stay in the
herd over two years longer than the average cow.
That combination extreme index with extreme longevity
is the new ceiling. The economics of the industry
demand that kind of durability. The old production
longevity tradeoff is breaking down. Elite genetics
can now deliver cows that both stay in the herd
and fill the tank, which is crucial for amortizing
those heifer rearing costs. Exactly. And we see
that same focus on durability really strongly
in the UK with the sheepster legacy, specifically
on the daughter proven side governed by their
PLI, the Profitable Lifetime Index. Right. OCD
Trooper Sheepster. He graduated to the number
one daughter proven sire in the UK with a 783
pound PLI. But his significance isn't just his
own rank. He's become a breed shaping sire of
sons. That's the definition of a true foundation
sire, isn't it? When his own offspring started
dominating the next generation of genomic lists.
Precisely. Multiple sheepster offspring, including
Badger Seemers Daytrip at number two genomic
and Progenesis Preston at number three, they
now dominate the young sire lists. So it's a
legacy. It's the kind of bloodline dominance
that builds lasting competitive advantage focused
on functional traits like mastitis, resistance,
and fertility. And the proof is in the daughters.
The sheepster daughters show a clear lifespan
advantage of plus 110 days. That longevity confirms
the sheepster legacy is reshaping the entire
UK breed toward functional durability and lower
replacement costs. It validates the core tenets
of that invisible cow philosophy globally. If
you're paying huge labor and feed costs, you
need a cow that doesn't require your attention.
Okay, we spent the first part of this talking
about the high -risk, high -reward genomic bulls
that just cratered, costing farmers millions
in anticipated value. We did. Now we need to
talk about the necessary antidote to that volatility.
The daughter -proven anchors. The safety net
for your entire operation. I think we really
need to stop calling proven sires old news. I
agree. They're not just for the cautious farmer
anymore. They are insurance against the dramatic
volatility we just saw in Switzerland, Italy,
and Scandinavia. They provide a predictable floor
of certainty where genomic scores only offer
high potential hope. The value of that certainty
is so often undervalued in the chase for the
absolute highest index score. When you are mating
100 or 200 heifers, you need reliable production
and, just as importantly, reliable fertility.
So who are the pillars? In Scandinavia, Peak
Reno ET retained the number one proven spot at
plus 42 NTM. His value is simply his stability.
His traits are locked in with high reliability,
high yield at 130, and exceptional fertility
at 120. That is a known dependable quantity for
your core meetings. That reliability is your
management buffer. You can make long -term feed
housing decisions based on Raynell's daughters
because you know exactly what you're going to
get. Exactly. And in the UK, OCD trooper Sheepster
is a proven pillar. He's at a 783 -pound PLI
with 77 % reliability. And remember, that's daughter
-proven reliability, which is statistically different
and far more mature than a 75 % genomic proof.
So we know exactly what he delivers. We do. Plus
0 .17 % fat, plus 0 .07 % protein, and that crucial
plus 110 days of lifespan. You can bank on that
longevity. Wait, I want you to clarify that point
on reliability. You mentioned the genomic sires
that crashed were 75 % reliable. Why is a daughter
-proven bull -leg sheafster, even at 77 % reliability,
so much better for risk mitigation? That's where
the physics comes back in. A 75 % genomic reliability
is based on the relationship of that animal's
DNA profile to a very large reference population.
It's a highly educated guess. The 77 % reliability
of a proven sire, however, is based on actual
daughter production records under commercial
conditions. It's a completely different and far
more stable source of data. The standard error
of prediction drops dramatically once actual
daughters are in that formula. So a genomic bull
can crash because his DNA relationship to the
reference set proves to be inaccurate. But a
proven sire at 77 % is... is simply refining
existing data, not proving a theory from scratch.
That difference is massive. It's the difference
between a highly accurate forecast and a verified
observation. And for a real world example of
reliability maturing, look at Genesaur's captain
on the UK proven list. He moved to number seven,
but that's not the story. The story is, his proof
has now matured to a near -perfect 98 % reliability.
98%. He still transmits 997 kilograms of milk
and strong fat. That high reliability, 98%, is
the kind of certainty that no genomic projection
can ever match. It's the evaluation system working
perfectly, giving us the most accurate picture
possible. So the practical application for you
listening right now is simple. But it's often
overlooked in the race for the next big number.
It is. You need to allocate a meaningful portion
of your matings. And we suggest at least 30 to
40 percent to these elite proven sires. They're
your dependable risk management tool. They anchor
your herd, ensuring predictable performance and
fertility, while you chase those high potential
gains of the genomic market with the rest of
your matings. That balanced portfolio is what
separates stable, profitable herds from the gamblers.
All right, let's bring it all home. A farmer
just finished milking is driving to the feed
store. They need to turn this massive influx
of information and volatility into immediate
action. What are the three strategic imperatives
they need to act on from this December reckoning?
OK, here are the three critical takeaways that
transition from data analysis into actionable
farm strategy. Let's hear them. Number one is
immediate action. This week, audit your semen
tank and diversify. And the why on that is to
mitigate. the extreme volatility risk we saw,
that 52 -point drop in Boston, the 98 -point
plunge in Ecuador P, that concentration risk
is just too high to stomach. That's right. Go
look at your tank, review your invoices, check
your breeding sheets. If you are 100 % heavy
on one unproven hot bull, stop mating to him.
Today, diversify ruthlessly. Cap any single unproven
genomic sire at a maximum of 15 to 20 % of your
total matings. A team of high -quality genomic
sires where the risk is spread out will always
outperform a single superstar who crashes. It's
portfolio management for your genetics. It is,
and it's the only reliable risk management policy.
Okay, number two is a medium -term strategy.
Three to six months. Rewrite your criteria to
prioritize components. Why? Because that's where
the money is. Processors are rewarding solids
and the economic landscape demands high -quality
milk. This is the quickest path to maximizing
your revenue per hundredweight. Your action item
here is to immediately adjust your mating criteria
to aggressively target sires transmitting high
kilograms and high percentages of fat and protein.
You need those elite component specialists. The
beyond high -level ET at 165 kilos of fat. The
German prototype Saturn RDC at plus... 0 .88
% fat. And the component strength of Genesource
Mystra. These aren't just numbers. These are
the new revenue drivers for the next decade.
Ensure your genetic program is maximizing the
milk check based on modern payment formulas.
Okay, what's number three? And finally, number
three is your long -term positioning. One to
two years out. Manage inbreeding ruthlessly.
The why on this is simple. The genetic concentration
is severe. We saw genosaurs capture 73 % of the
top U .S. net merit spots. We saw the dominance
of European lines like AltaZazzle and Gameday.
The gene pool is shrinking faster than ever before.
So use mating software to monitor and manage
inbreeding coefficients before every single mating
decision. This isn't optional anymore. It's survival.
You have to actively seek those outcross options
to maintain fertility, calf vigor, and long -term
herd resilience. Don't let the short -term financial
gain of chasing the number one NM1 bull undermine
the long -term health and fertility of your entire
herd. That's the difference between a flash in
the pan and sustained generational profit. Excellent.
The December reckoning was. It was painful for
some, but it delivered crystal clear signals
on risk management, economic priorities, and
genetic stability. This has been another Bullvine
podcast. Remember, the lesson of December 2025
is stark. Hype doesn't fill the bulk tank components
and reliability do. For more straight -talking
analysis, the full global rankings, and detailed
treat breakdowns, head to www .thebullvine .com.
And subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
We're out with new deep dives every day, helping
you make sense of the noise and the numbers.
Next time, we're tearing apart the complex and
often hidden costs of low fertility and why those
elusive days open are costing you far more than
you realize.