WEBVTT

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Breaking free from the chains of the past Where

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truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law

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waiting on some printed page We're charting new

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ground in the digital age From genomic codes

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to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold

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them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight

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we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast,

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where we cut through the dairy industry noise

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to get you the insights that actually matter

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for your operation. And today we're diving into

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what we're calling the December Reckoning. That's

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a strong word. It is, but it's deserved. The

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new genetic evaluations just dropped across North

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America and Europe, and this wasn't just a reshuffle,

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it was a detonation. Detonation is exactly the

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word I've been using since the numbers hit my

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desk. Look, our mission today is... It's critical.

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We are analyzing the December 2025 global Holstein

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rankings. Right. But let's be brutally honest

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about the stakes right now. If you were still

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relying on your genetic playbook from last August.

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Your sourcing list, your favorite goals. All

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of it. It is officially obsolete. This isn't

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about minor fluctuations. This is about seismic

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shifts that are going to redefine your profitability

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for 2026. Exactly. Relying on that outdated data

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is probably the fastest way to erode your margins

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next year. A global bloodbath this cycle. A bloodbath.

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Sires that were untouchable, commanding premium

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prices, backing entire breeding strategies. They

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just cratered overnight. And these weren't errors.

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This was the risk materializing. And I think

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there are two massive stories we have to dissect

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here. First, the sheer volatility that just slammed

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the international markets. We saw untouchable

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genomic leaders get wiped out. Wiped out is right.

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And second, the blia. I mean, the massive, unprecedented

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consolidation of the gene pool happening right

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here in North America. It's terrifying in a way.

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We need to show you exactly which high profile

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sires melted down and maybe more importantly,

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what that phrase 75 percent reliability actually

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means when the numbers don't hold up. This deep

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dive is about protecting your bottom line. And

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ensuring your herd is resilient for the future.

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Let's jump straight into the physics of the collapse.

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Let's do it. We have preached the principle of

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genomic volatility since, well, since day one.

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The idea that predictions are just that. They're

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estimates, not guarantees. Right. This December

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cycle, though, that principle stopped being some

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theoretical warning, and it turned into brutal

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financial reality. We saw it across multiple

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international indexes. And I hear that number

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all the time. 75 % reliable. Especially when

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we're talking about these young, high -flying

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genomic bulls. It sounds safe, doesn't it? It

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sounds great. Yeah. Most people hear 75 % and

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they treat it as a near certainty, especially

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when the upside looks so incredible. But you

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have to remind people what that other 25 % represents.

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It represents a one in four chance of deviating

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significantly from the prediction as actual daughter

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data starts to roll in. Significantly. And more

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importantly, we have to talk about the standard

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error of prediction or the SEP. That's the statistical

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range the actual proof is likely to fall within.

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When we see these dramatic index drops, they

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aren't some black swan. event. It's not a fluke.

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No, it's the inherent risk materializing exactly

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as the statistics predicted it could. It's the

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hard truth of early selection. And December just

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exposed that vulnerability in the harshest way

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possible. That's the analytical view. The practical

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view is it's financial ruin for some of the seed

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stock guys who banked everything on these bulls.

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We aren't talking about some mid -range sires

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here. No, these are the absolute darlings, the

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ones commanding premium prices based entirely

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on index hype. So let's name names. Where do

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we start? Let's start in Europe. The damage was

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immediate. Look first at Switzerland, which uses

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the ISET, or International Selection Efficiency

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Trait Index. The bull was Sussmaron, Boston.

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I know the name. He was the former number one

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sire there, right? Untouchable in August at a

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massive plus 1645 ISET. That's the one. And what

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happened in December? I'm waiting for it. He

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suffered a stunning, almost unbelievable 52 -point

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ISET collapse, dropped him all the way down to

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plus 1593. 52 points. Now, for our listeners

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who operate in U .S. or Canadian indexes, you

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have to understand, 52 points in ISET is an enormous

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correction. It's a complete recalibration of

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projected genetic value. So for herds that invested

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heavily in his semen, his embryos, based on that

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summer ranking, That potential revenue worth

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hundreds of thousands of dollars industry -wide,

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it just evaporated overnight. 52 points. That

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is absolutely gut -renting. Can you imagine being

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a breeder or an investor who banked heavily on

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that single bull just six months ago? You thought

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you had the golden ticket. You bought at the

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absolute peak, expecting those daughters to carry

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that. plus $16 .45 value, only to wake up and

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realize the projected value of all those pregnancies

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just took a massive haircut. That's not a blip.

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That is a heart attack for your balance sheet.

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And if you think that's bad, wait till you hear

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the story out of Italy. Oh, no. The volatility

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there was even more pronounced, and it hit a

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high -profile niche market. Italy uses the GPFT,

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or Genomic Profitability Trade Index. Okay. The

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star was a bull named KNO Ecuador P. He's a high

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-profile polled sire, which means he carried

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additional market value. So even more hype. Exactly.

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He plummeted an incredible 98 GPFT points, dropped

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from 49 .43 all the way down to 48 .45. 98 points.

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That sounds like a complete technical failure,

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not just a correction, that's a wipeout. It is

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arguably the single most brutal proof correction

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among any of the elite sires in this entire cycle.

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It just goes to show what happens when market

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enthusiasm, the hype, pushes a bull far beyond

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what the reliability metrics should allow. The

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risks just, it resolves itself. And often it

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resolves itself violently. And it wasn't just

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them. Scandinavia saw the same pattern, right?

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In their NTM, the Nordic Total Merit Index. Absolutely.

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And their index is heavily weighted towards health,

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fertility, function, things that reflect their

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high labor cost model. You'd think it would be

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more stable. You would. But the former genomic

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leader, Fly P, experienced a precipitous eight

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point NTM drop. He went from plus 49 NTM down

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to plus 41. Now, eight points doesn't sound as

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dramatic as 98. It doesn't. But for the NTM index,

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which is extremely stable and very difficult

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to move, that's one of the sharpest single round

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declines on record. for a bull that high up the

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list. So it proves that no index, no matter how

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balanced or function focused it is, is immune

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to genomic correction when that 25 % risk matures.

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Okay, let me put on my farmer hat for a second

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because this is where the real pain hits home.

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Go for it. I'm sitting here, I'm looking at a

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semen tank full of straws that were bought at

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a premium six months ago and now they've lost

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50. 60, almost 100 points in projected value,

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my first thought is, I got burned chasing the

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hot new bull too hard. And that's a fair reaction.

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I bought what was essentially a high -risk stock,

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but I treated it like a guaranteed blue -chip

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investment for my next heifer crop. And that

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is the precise, practical lesson here. Genomic

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selection gives you this enormous advantage of

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compressed generation intervals. You get to genetic

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gain faster, but the cost of failure is astronomical.

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The excitement of maximizing that gain? pushes

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us as breeders toward concentration. We rely

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too heavily on one or two unproven superstars.

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But the system is designed to correct as reliability

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matures. The discipline required is to understand

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that this volatility demands ruthless risk management.

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It demands diversification. If you got burned

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this December, it's a tough lesson, but it's

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one that requires immediate action. Agreed. The

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key takeaway here. Volatility is real. It materialized

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with a vengeance. And if you concentrated your

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risk, you'd be paid the price. You have to treat

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that 75 % reliable sire like a portfolio investment,

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not a single stock. Well said. So now let's shift

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gears completely. Okay. If that first part was

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about the devastating collapse of certain high

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flyers, this next part is about the terrifying

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rise of singular force and the market consolidation

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that comes with it. Let's talk about the U .S.

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market, where the genetic landscape isn't just

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shuffling, it's narrowing. It is narrowing drastically

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under one major program. Narrowing is an understatement.

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It's turning into a virtual monopoly. And, you

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know, frankly, you can't argue with the effectiveness

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of the strategy. No, the results are there, but

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you have to worry about the long -term implications.

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Genesaurus isn't just winning. They are sweeping

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the table in a way we haven't seen in decades.

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The data is. It's historically staggering. We're

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talking about net merit dollars, or NM, or the

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U .S. dairy industry's primary profitability

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index. The one most commercial guys live and

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die by. Right. As of December, Genesource now

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controls an astounding 22 of the top 30 net merit

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spots. 22 out of 30. That represents a remarkable

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73 % market share in the index that most U .S.

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commercial dairies use to make their strategic

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mating decisions. 73 percent. I mean, that concentration

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of elite profit genetics is just it's unprecedented.

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They have clearly cracked the code on what drives

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profitability in the U .S. system. That balance

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of production, health and longevity that NMO

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prioritizes. And they hold the crown jewel. Genesource

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Retrospect Et defends his number one NMR position

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at a massive $1 ,296. He just embodies their

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mastery of that total economic merit formula.

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And it's not a one -off. Their pipeline is full.

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Exactly. The most explosive newcomer was Sandan

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on Call Eid. He debuts at number nine NMR and

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number three GTPI with a commanding production

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profile, 1845 milk, 151 fat, and 70 protein.

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The sheer fact that one program can dominate

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this intensely just shows relentless focus breeding.

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Okay, let's stop right there because this is

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the critical debate. This is the double -edged

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sword. Analytically, I have to acknowledge it.

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This concentration delivers elite, consistent,

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and highly profitable results. It offers a clear,

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repeatable path to high -profit genetics. It

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does. For the commercial farmer who just wants

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the best numbers today, it's a simple choice.

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That's the pro argument. Efficiency and predictability.

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But practically, I'm raising the alarm about

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systemic risk. I get the efficiency, but... If

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73 % of the elite genetics are flowing from the

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same maternal lines using the same sire fathers,

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where is our diversity in five years? That's

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a billion dollar question. This concentration

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feels like a ticking time bomb for inbreeding.

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We've seen this before in history where dominant

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bloodlines run too deep. The result is always

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the same. Loss of resilience, compromised fertility.

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Exactly. Reduced calf figure. It introduces a

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systemic risk that goes way beyond an individual

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bull's index score. I agree with the concern.

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We have to emphasize that this high genetic ceiling

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comes with a very high genetic constraint. While

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the Genisaurus program is brilliant at maximizing

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gain, that gain is being built on an increasingly

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narrow foundation. We're essentially betting

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the farm on the success and durability of just

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a handful of maternal lines. That's a great way

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to put it. And wait, let me push back on your

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efficiency point for a second. Isn't high consolidation?

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actually good for standardization and maximizing

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short -term gain? You could make that argument.

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Why should a commercial farmer worry about diversity?

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That's always been a concern for the seed stock

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breeders, right? If I'm just milking cows, why

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does the breadth of the gene pool matter to my

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milk check next year? That is a fundamentally

00:12:07.909 --> 00:12:10.789
important question. And the answer is it matters

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because the consequences of profound inbreeding

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aren't subtle. They show up on the balance sheet.

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They show up as reduced conception rates, fewer

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live births, increased stillbirths, all measurable

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costs to the commercial farmer. And beyond that,

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a lack of diversity translates to vulnerability.

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Environmental and health pressures. If the dominant

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maternal lines all happen to share a weakness

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to a new pathogen or a specific management stressor,

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that 73 % market share means the entire US herd

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is vulnerable. Genetic diversity is our insurance

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against the unknown challenges of the future.

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So while the seed stock guy is managing the immediate

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inbreeding coefficient, the commercial guy is

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the one who pays the price in herd health and

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wasted semen costs five years from now. Exactly.

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Which puts a huge premium on careful mating software.

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And this isn't just an American thing, is it?

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We are seeing these concentration echoes across

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Europe. We are. Look at Switzerland again. The

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foundational Game Day maternal line underpins

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three of their top five, Iset Sires, Monset,

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Boston, and Torchlight. The influence is enormous.

00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:16.600
Same story, different country. And in the Netherlands,

00:13:16.820 --> 00:13:19.340
where the focus is on functional longevity, the

00:13:19.340 --> 00:13:22.080
Altasazel bloodline claims four of the top 10

00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:24.899
proven sire positions. The top genetics in the

00:13:24.899 --> 00:13:27.440
world are becoming highly centralized. So the

00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:31.120
dominance of these bloodlines, Genasource, Gameday,

00:13:31.159 --> 00:13:36.200
Altasazel, sends a clear signal. You must, absolutely

00:13:36.200 --> 00:13:39.019
must, invest in ruthless inbreeding management.

00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:41.240
It's non -negotiable now. You have to use your

00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:43.539
mating programs to actively monitor and manage

00:13:43.539 --> 00:13:46.039
those coefficients. Don't let the pursuit of

00:13:46.039 --> 00:13:50.159
that 1296 NMN Eller score today destroy the genetic

00:13:50.159 --> 00:13:52.840
foundation of your herd tomorrow. Protecting

00:13:52.840 --> 00:13:55.220
genetic diversity is no longer a luxury for the

00:13:55.220 --> 00:13:57.690
elite breeder. It's a foundational step for maintaining

00:13:57.690 --> 00:14:00.370
fertility and long -term resilience for the commercial

00:14:00.370 --> 00:14:03.149
farmer. Okay, let's shift our focus now to where

00:14:03.149 --> 00:14:05.789
the cash register is ringing globally. Because

00:14:05.789 --> 00:14:09.009
the evaluations this December were, they were

00:14:09.009 --> 00:14:11.490
unambiguous. Components are now the defining

00:14:11.490 --> 00:14:14.230
trait of profitability. Absolutely. The global

00:14:14.230 --> 00:14:17.200
economic trend is crystal clear. Processor payments

00:14:17.200 --> 00:14:19.840
are increasingly tied to milk solids, fat and

00:14:19.840 --> 00:14:21.799
protein. It's just a reflection of consumer demand,

00:14:21.980 --> 00:14:24.580
right? Less fluid milk, more cheese, more yogurt,

00:14:24.620 --> 00:14:27.019
more butterfat. The index formula is simply reflecting

00:14:27.019 --> 00:14:29.399
that economic reality on the ground. Right. So

00:14:29.399 --> 00:14:31.539
for every U .S. or Canadian farmer listening,

00:14:31.779 --> 00:14:34.899
your mantra right now has to be volume is vanity,

00:14:35.039 --> 00:14:37.519
solids are sanity. I like that. Selecting for

00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:39.820
high components is no longer an optional trait.

00:14:39.960 --> 00:14:44.139
It is a direct, measurable path to maximizing

00:14:44.139 --> 00:14:46.309
your revenue per hundredweight. because that's

00:14:46.309 --> 00:14:48.549
where the premiums are. And this evaluation cycle

00:14:48.549 --> 00:14:50.909
didn't just confirm the trend. It gave us the

00:14:50.909 --> 00:14:53.870
new prototypes, the bulls that redefine what

00:14:53.870 --> 00:14:56.110
high component production looks like at the elite

00:14:56.110 --> 00:14:58.350
level. So who are the new kings of components?

00:14:58.669 --> 00:15:01.710
In Canada and the US, the bull defining the new

00:15:01.710 --> 00:15:04.509
component ceiling is beyond high level ET. Wow.

00:15:04.690 --> 00:15:08.090
He vaulted an explosive 11 spots to number four

00:15:08.090 --> 00:15:11.289
in Canada's LPI. And he claimed the number one

00:15:11.289 --> 00:15:14.230
GTPI spot in the U .S. precisely because of his

00:15:14.230 --> 00:15:16.590
exceptional component profile. OK, so give me

00:15:16.590 --> 00:15:18.570
the specific numbers. What's making him so profitable?

00:15:18.870 --> 00:15:22.230
We are talking about 165 kilograms of fat on

00:15:22.230 --> 00:15:25.750
a high volume base alongside 78 kilograms of

00:15:25.750 --> 00:15:29.149
protein. 165 kilos of fat. That production profile

00:15:29.149 --> 00:15:31.509
proves that the old tradeoff, the idea that you

00:15:31.509 --> 00:15:33.529
couldn't have extreme volume and extreme density.

00:15:33.610 --> 00:15:36.210
is officially broken, you can have both. And

00:15:36.210 --> 00:15:38.269
your milk check demands that you select for it.

00:15:38.370 --> 00:15:40.950
It's fascinating because the market isn't just

00:15:40.950 --> 00:15:42.830
rewarding high percentages anymore, but high

00:15:42.830 --> 00:15:45.710
kilograms. He's moving a huge amount of fluid

00:15:45.710 --> 00:15:48.950
milk that is also extremely rich. Exactly. But

00:15:48.950 --> 00:15:51.289
we also saw the rise of the extreme percentage

00:15:51.289 --> 00:15:54.389
specialist. Beyond Hooray It debuted at number

00:15:54.389 --> 00:15:56.309
three LPI in Canada. And what's the profile?

00:15:56.639 --> 00:15:58.879
He hits the percentage extremes with a plus 1

00:15:58.879 --> 00:16:03.879
.0 % fat and a plus 0 .52 % protein. His profile

00:16:03.879 --> 00:16:07.179
is tailor -made for herds targeting maximum premiums

00:16:07.179 --> 00:16:09.580
in markets with strict percentage payment grids.

00:16:09.639 --> 00:16:11.320
That's the difference between a farm just scraping

00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:13.600
by on margin and a farm that's generating an

00:16:13.600 --> 00:16:15.860
elite milk chick. The component density is the

00:16:15.860 --> 00:16:17.899
key lever. And we see it everywhere. Look at

00:16:17.899 --> 00:16:20.980
Germany, which uses the RZG index with its focus

00:16:20.980 --> 00:16:23.720
on health and efficiency. The new genomic co

00:16:23.720 --> 00:16:26.360
-leader, Saturn RDC, immediately distinguished

00:16:26.360 --> 00:16:30.340
himself with a massive plus 0 .88 % fat alongside

00:16:30.340 --> 00:16:33.320
excellent health traits. The global market is

00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:36.320
rewarding this exact phenotype. It's a truly

00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:38.360
global phenomenon. Italy's new international

00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:41.299
genomic leader, De Novo Locust Iappi, he's at

00:16:41.299 --> 00:16:44.639
54 .50 GPFT. He's also built on this component

00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:47.539
philosophy. He is. He posts strong component

00:16:47.539 --> 00:16:50.519
kilograms, plus 115 kilograms of fat, and plus

00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:53.179
96 kilograms of protein. And the Netherlands.

00:16:53.480 --> 00:16:55.399
In the Netherlands, they use the INET, their

00:16:55.399 --> 00:16:57.820
total profit index. The standout is Genesource

00:16:57.820 --> 00:17:00.919
Mistro. He has the highest INET at plus 799.

00:17:01.240 --> 00:17:03.379
And if you dissect that score, what's driving

00:17:03.379 --> 00:17:06.759
it? Components. Components. Plus 146 kilograms

00:17:06.759 --> 00:17:09.930
of fat and plus... 84 kilograms of protein. The

00:17:09.930 --> 00:17:13.309
correlation is just. It's undeniable. Selecting

00:17:13.309 --> 00:17:15.210
for high fat and protein is now the most direct

00:17:15.210 --> 00:17:17.950
path to maximizing your revenue. When you see

00:17:17.950 --> 00:17:20.930
a bull like High Level posting 165 kilos of fat

00:17:20.930 --> 00:17:24.450
or Hooray posting over 1 % fat, you're looking

00:17:24.450 --> 00:17:26.390
at the new gold standard for dairy profitability.

00:17:26.990 --> 00:17:29.250
These component specialists are not noosh bulls

00:17:29.250 --> 00:17:31.569
anymore. They are the core revenue drivers, and

00:17:31.569 --> 00:17:33.450
the index rankings are now clearly reflecting

00:17:33.450 --> 00:17:35.789
that economic truth across every major dairy

00:17:35.789 --> 00:17:38.529
market. The time for prioritizing volume alone

00:17:38.529 --> 00:17:40.930
is over. If you aren't selecting aggressively

00:17:40.930 --> 00:17:43.470
for components today, you are essentially leaving

00:17:43.470 --> 00:17:45.490
cash on the table with every single milk check.

00:17:45.670 --> 00:17:48.130
Shifting our focus back to Europe now, we often

00:17:48.130 --> 00:17:51.359
see a mindset that prioritizes durability, function,

00:17:51.420 --> 00:17:54.920
and trouble -free performance over just chasing

00:17:54.920 --> 00:17:58.000
extreme index points or production volume. This

00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:00.220
is the heart of what we call the invisible cow

00:18:00.220 --> 00:18:03.230
philosophy. And it's critical for commercial

00:18:03.230 --> 00:18:05.690
viability in these high cost labor environments.

00:18:05.930 --> 00:18:08.650
It's the logical extension of systems that face

00:18:08.650 --> 00:18:10.670
really high replacement costs and pressure on

00:18:10.670 --> 00:18:13.650
efficiency. The invisible cow is the complete

00:18:13.650 --> 00:18:17.369
antithesis of the show Ringstar. Right. The breeding

00:18:17.369 --> 00:18:20.289
philosophy rewards balanced, moderate, functional

00:18:20.289 --> 00:18:23.660
cattle. They're designed to thrive in real -world

00:18:23.660 --> 00:18:26.079
commercial systems without creating management

00:18:26.079 --> 00:18:28.440
headaches. So let's define this. What does the

00:18:28.440 --> 00:18:30.160
invisible cow actually look like on the farm?

00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:32.720
She's the cow that you don't notice. You don't

00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:34.579
notice her during milking because her temperament

00:18:34.579 --> 00:18:36.960
is calm and her utter health is perfect. You

00:18:36.960 --> 00:18:38.759
don't notice her during breeding checks because

00:18:38.759 --> 00:18:41.440
she cycles on time every time. You don't notice

00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:43.200
her when the vet comes because she hasn't had

00:18:43.200 --> 00:18:45.980
a single case of mystitis or a foot ulcer in

00:18:45.980 --> 00:18:48.660
two years. She doesn't win the show. And she

00:18:48.660 --> 00:18:50.420
might not even be the highest yielder in your

00:18:50.420 --> 00:18:52.960
herd, but she stays in the herd for lactation

00:18:52.960 --> 00:18:56.059
after lactation. Her true value, then, is only

00:18:56.059 --> 00:18:58.460
visible when you check the bottom line. It's

00:18:58.460 --> 00:19:01.480
the profit driven by low labor needs, minimal

00:19:01.480 --> 00:19:04.619
vet bills, and low replacement costs. Precisely.

00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:08.019
And the Netherlands, using their NBI or net value

00:19:08.019 --> 00:19:11.160
index, they just completely validate this philosophy

00:19:11.160 --> 00:19:14.619
with the absolute conquest of the Altazazel bloodline

00:19:14.619 --> 00:19:17.519
in the proven rankings. Alta Zazzlesons claim

00:19:17.519 --> 00:19:21.140
four of the top 10 NBI positions. That level

00:19:21.140 --> 00:19:23.500
of dominance proves that the market is willing

00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:25.460
to sacrifice a little bit of extreme production

00:19:25.460 --> 00:19:28.980
for trouble -free... durable performance. It

00:19:28.980 --> 00:19:31.599
does. It validates a breeding philosophy that

00:19:31.599 --> 00:19:33.960
prioritizes robustness. And when you look at

00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:36.480
their genomic lists, bulls have to deliver on

00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:39.200
function. For example? Genosaurus Modi, for example.

00:19:39.339 --> 00:19:42.440
He cracked the incredible plus 420 NBI ceiling

00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:45.400
in the genomic ranks, but he did it while simultaneously

00:19:45.400 --> 00:19:48.220
delivering phenomenal functional longevity. And

00:19:48.220 --> 00:19:50.180
what's the number on that? An increase of plus

00:19:50.180 --> 00:19:55.450
872 days of projected lifespan. 872 days. That

00:19:55.450 --> 00:19:58.529
figure is why it's mind boggling. That means

00:19:58.529 --> 00:20:00.470
Modi's daughters are projected to stay in the

00:20:00.470 --> 00:20:02.910
herd over two years longer than the average cow.

00:20:03.089 --> 00:20:06.109
That combination extreme index with extreme longevity

00:20:06.109 --> 00:20:09.309
is the new ceiling. The economics of the industry

00:20:09.309 --> 00:20:12.230
demand that kind of durability. The old production

00:20:12.230 --> 00:20:15.869
longevity tradeoff is breaking down. Elite genetics

00:20:15.869 --> 00:20:18.430
can now deliver cows that both stay in the herd

00:20:18.430 --> 00:20:21.289
and fill the tank, which is crucial for amortizing

00:20:21.289 --> 00:20:24.170
those heifer rearing costs. Exactly. And we see

00:20:24.170 --> 00:20:26.430
that same focus on durability really strongly

00:20:26.430 --> 00:20:29.190
in the UK with the sheepster legacy, specifically

00:20:29.190 --> 00:20:31.869
on the daughter proven side governed by their

00:20:31.869 --> 00:20:35.210
PLI, the Profitable Lifetime Index. Right. OCD

00:20:35.210 --> 00:20:37.589
Trooper Sheepster. He graduated to the number

00:20:37.589 --> 00:20:40.970
one daughter proven sire in the UK with a 783

00:20:40.970 --> 00:20:44.450
pound PLI. But his significance isn't just his

00:20:44.450 --> 00:20:46.569
own rank. He's become a breed shaping sire of

00:20:46.569 --> 00:20:49.130
sons. That's the definition of a true foundation

00:20:49.130 --> 00:20:51.359
sire, isn't it? When his own offspring started

00:20:51.359 --> 00:20:53.900
dominating the next generation of genomic lists.

00:20:54.380 --> 00:20:57.819
Precisely. Multiple sheepster offspring, including

00:20:57.819 --> 00:21:00.039
Badger Seemers Daytrip at number two genomic

00:21:00.039 --> 00:21:02.500
and Progenesis Preston at number three, they

00:21:02.500 --> 00:21:05.160
now dominate the young sire lists. So it's a

00:21:05.160 --> 00:21:07.279
legacy. It's the kind of bloodline dominance

00:21:07.279 --> 00:21:10.180
that builds lasting competitive advantage focused

00:21:10.180 --> 00:21:12.720
on functional traits like mastitis, resistance,

00:21:12.940 --> 00:21:15.519
and fertility. And the proof is in the daughters.

00:21:16.119 --> 00:21:18.319
The sheepster daughters show a clear lifespan

00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:21.940
advantage of plus 110 days. That longevity confirms

00:21:21.940 --> 00:21:24.460
the sheepster legacy is reshaping the entire

00:21:24.460 --> 00:21:27.539
UK breed toward functional durability and lower

00:21:27.539 --> 00:21:30.940
replacement costs. It validates the core tenets

00:21:30.940 --> 00:21:34.240
of that invisible cow philosophy globally. If

00:21:34.240 --> 00:21:36.519
you're paying huge labor and feed costs, you

00:21:36.519 --> 00:21:38.140
need a cow that doesn't require your attention.

00:21:38.539 --> 00:21:40.119
Okay, we spent the first part of this talking

00:21:40.119 --> 00:21:42.740
about the high -risk, high -reward genomic bulls

00:21:42.740 --> 00:21:44.920
that just cratered, costing farmers millions

00:21:44.920 --> 00:21:47.519
in anticipated value. We did. Now we need to

00:21:47.519 --> 00:21:49.759
talk about the necessary antidote to that volatility.

00:21:50.119 --> 00:21:52.660
The daughter -proven anchors. The safety net

00:21:52.660 --> 00:21:54.759
for your entire operation. I think we really

00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:57.359
need to stop calling proven sires old news. I

00:21:57.359 --> 00:21:59.500
agree. They're not just for the cautious farmer

00:21:59.500 --> 00:22:02.009
anymore. They are insurance against the dramatic

00:22:02.009 --> 00:22:04.329
volatility we just saw in Switzerland, Italy,

00:22:04.470 --> 00:22:07.690
and Scandinavia. They provide a predictable floor

00:22:07.690 --> 00:22:10.869
of certainty where genomic scores only offer

00:22:10.869 --> 00:22:13.210
high potential hope. The value of that certainty

00:22:13.210 --> 00:22:15.470
is so often undervalued in the chase for the

00:22:15.470 --> 00:22:18.650
absolute highest index score. When you are mating

00:22:18.650 --> 00:22:21.730
100 or 200 heifers, you need reliable production

00:22:21.730 --> 00:22:24.230
and, just as importantly, reliable fertility.

00:22:24.630 --> 00:22:27.460
So who are the pillars? In Scandinavia, Peak

00:22:27.460 --> 00:22:30.799
Reno ET retained the number one proven spot at

00:22:30.799 --> 00:22:34.630
plus 42 NTM. His value is simply his stability.

00:22:34.950 --> 00:22:37.269
His traits are locked in with high reliability,

00:22:37.609 --> 00:22:40.069
high yield at 130, and exceptional fertility

00:22:40.069 --> 00:22:43.430
at 120. That is a known dependable quantity for

00:22:43.430 --> 00:22:45.569
your core meetings. That reliability is your

00:22:45.569 --> 00:22:47.930
management buffer. You can make long -term feed

00:22:47.930 --> 00:22:49.890
housing decisions based on Raynell's daughters

00:22:49.890 --> 00:22:51.829
because you know exactly what you're going to

00:22:51.829 --> 00:22:55.170
get. Exactly. And in the UK, OCD trooper Sheepster

00:22:55.170 --> 00:22:59.230
is a proven pillar. He's at a 783 -pound PLI

00:22:59.230 --> 00:23:02.759
with 77 % reliability. And remember, that's daughter

00:23:02.759 --> 00:23:05.079
-proven reliability, which is statistically different

00:23:05.079 --> 00:23:07.619
and far more mature than a 75 % genomic proof.

00:23:07.859 --> 00:23:10.759
So we know exactly what he delivers. We do. Plus

00:23:10.759 --> 00:23:16.680
0 .17 % fat, plus 0 .07 % protein, and that crucial

00:23:16.680 --> 00:23:20.240
plus 110 days of lifespan. You can bank on that

00:23:20.240 --> 00:23:22.569
longevity. Wait, I want you to clarify that point

00:23:22.569 --> 00:23:25.369
on reliability. You mentioned the genomic sires

00:23:25.369 --> 00:23:28.670
that crashed were 75 % reliable. Why is a daughter

00:23:28.670 --> 00:23:32.130
-proven bull -leg sheafster, even at 77 % reliability,

00:23:32.430 --> 00:23:35.130
so much better for risk mitigation? That's where

00:23:35.130 --> 00:23:37.950
the physics comes back in. A 75 % genomic reliability

00:23:37.950 --> 00:23:40.009
is based on the relationship of that animal's

00:23:40.009 --> 00:23:42.609
DNA profile to a very large reference population.

00:23:42.849 --> 00:23:46.089
It's a highly educated guess. The 77 % reliability

00:23:46.089 --> 00:23:48.809
of a proven sire, however, is based on actual

00:23:48.809 --> 00:23:50.349
daughter production records under commercial

00:23:50.349 --> 00:23:52.910
conditions. It's a completely different and far

00:23:52.910 --> 00:23:55.549
more stable source of data. The standard error

00:23:55.549 --> 00:23:57.690
of prediction drops dramatically once actual

00:23:57.690 --> 00:23:59.890
daughters are in that formula. So a genomic bull

00:23:59.890 --> 00:24:02.150
can crash because his DNA relationship to the

00:24:02.150 --> 00:24:04.170
reference set proves to be inaccurate. But a

00:24:04.170 --> 00:24:06.710
proven sire at 77 % is... is simply refining

00:24:06.710 --> 00:24:09.269
existing data, not proving a theory from scratch.

00:24:09.529 --> 00:24:11.569
That difference is massive. It's the difference

00:24:11.569 --> 00:24:14.150
between a highly accurate forecast and a verified

00:24:14.150 --> 00:24:17.230
observation. And for a real world example of

00:24:17.230 --> 00:24:19.970
reliability maturing, look at Genesaur's captain

00:24:19.970 --> 00:24:23.329
on the UK proven list. He moved to number seven,

00:24:23.410 --> 00:24:26.619
but that's not the story. The story is, his proof

00:24:26.619 --> 00:24:30.099
has now matured to a near -perfect 98 % reliability.

00:24:30.640 --> 00:24:35.279
98%. He still transmits 997 kilograms of milk

00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:39.440
and strong fat. That high reliability, 98%, is

00:24:39.440 --> 00:24:41.559
the kind of certainty that no genomic projection

00:24:41.559 --> 00:24:44.460
can ever match. It's the evaluation system working

00:24:44.460 --> 00:24:46.779
perfectly, giving us the most accurate picture

00:24:46.779 --> 00:24:49.119
possible. So the practical application for you

00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:51.250
listening right now is simple. But it's often

00:24:51.250 --> 00:24:53.289
overlooked in the race for the next big number.

00:24:53.369 --> 00:24:55.630
It is. You need to allocate a meaningful portion

00:24:55.630 --> 00:24:58.109
of your matings. And we suggest at least 30 to

00:24:58.109 --> 00:25:00.589
40 percent to these elite proven sires. They're

00:25:00.589 --> 00:25:02.710
your dependable risk management tool. They anchor

00:25:02.710 --> 00:25:04.910
your herd, ensuring predictable performance and

00:25:04.910 --> 00:25:06.910
fertility, while you chase those high potential

00:25:06.910 --> 00:25:08.730
gains of the genomic market with the rest of

00:25:08.730 --> 00:25:10.950
your matings. That balanced portfolio is what

00:25:10.950 --> 00:25:13.569
separates stable, profitable herds from the gamblers.

00:25:13.890 --> 00:25:16.240
All right, let's bring it all home. A farmer

00:25:16.240 --> 00:25:18.119
just finished milking is driving to the feed

00:25:18.119 --> 00:25:21.480
store. They need to turn this massive influx

00:25:21.480 --> 00:25:23.400
of information and volatility into immediate

00:25:23.400 --> 00:25:26.759
action. What are the three strategic imperatives

00:25:26.759 --> 00:25:29.440
they need to act on from this December reckoning?

00:25:29.579 --> 00:25:31.740
OK, here are the three critical takeaways that

00:25:31.740 --> 00:25:34.720
transition from data analysis into actionable

00:25:34.720 --> 00:25:37.140
farm strategy. Let's hear them. Number one is

00:25:37.140 --> 00:25:39.920
immediate action. This week, audit your semen

00:25:39.920 --> 00:25:42.799
tank and diversify. And the why on that is to

00:25:42.799 --> 00:25:45.599
mitigate. the extreme volatility risk we saw,

00:25:45.720 --> 00:25:49.140
that 52 -point drop in Boston, the 98 -point

00:25:49.140 --> 00:25:51.519
plunge in Ecuador P, that concentration risk

00:25:51.519 --> 00:25:53.799
is just too high to stomach. That's right. Go

00:25:53.799 --> 00:25:56.019
look at your tank, review your invoices, check

00:25:56.019 --> 00:25:58.619
your breeding sheets. If you are 100 % heavy

00:25:58.619 --> 00:26:01.299
on one unproven hot bull, stop mating to him.

00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:06.150
Today, diversify ruthlessly. Cap any single unproven

00:26:06.150 --> 00:26:09.069
genomic sire at a maximum of 15 to 20 % of your

00:26:09.069 --> 00:26:11.670
total matings. A team of high -quality genomic

00:26:11.670 --> 00:26:13.710
sires where the risk is spread out will always

00:26:13.710 --> 00:26:16.289
outperform a single superstar who crashes. It's

00:26:16.289 --> 00:26:18.829
portfolio management for your genetics. It is,

00:26:18.910 --> 00:26:21.589
and it's the only reliable risk management policy.

00:26:21.990 --> 00:26:24.130
Okay, number two is a medium -term strategy.

00:26:24.650 --> 00:26:27.750
Three to six months. Rewrite your criteria to

00:26:27.750 --> 00:26:30.460
prioritize components. Why? Because that's where

00:26:30.460 --> 00:26:33.140
the money is. Processors are rewarding solids

00:26:33.140 --> 00:26:35.700
and the economic landscape demands high -quality

00:26:35.700 --> 00:26:38.539
milk. This is the quickest path to maximizing

00:26:38.539 --> 00:26:41.079
your revenue per hundredweight. Your action item

00:26:41.079 --> 00:26:43.720
here is to immediately adjust your mating criteria

00:26:43.720 --> 00:26:46.680
to aggressively target sires transmitting high

00:26:46.680 --> 00:26:49.359
kilograms and high percentages of fat and protein.

00:26:49.640 --> 00:26:52.200
You need those elite component specialists. The

00:26:52.200 --> 00:26:56.339
beyond high -level ET at 165 kilos of fat. The

00:26:56.339 --> 00:27:00.009
German prototype Saturn RDC at plus... 0 .88

00:27:00.009 --> 00:27:02.470
% fat. And the component strength of Genesource

00:27:02.470 --> 00:27:03.910
Mystra. These aren't just numbers. These are

00:27:03.910 --> 00:27:05.769
the new revenue drivers for the next decade.

00:27:06.130 --> 00:27:08.549
Ensure your genetic program is maximizing the

00:27:08.549 --> 00:27:10.529
milk check based on modern payment formulas.

00:27:10.809 --> 00:27:12.309
Okay, what's number three? And finally, number

00:27:12.309 --> 00:27:14.430
three is your long -term positioning. One to

00:27:14.430 --> 00:27:16.890
two years out. Manage inbreeding ruthlessly.

00:27:17.130 --> 00:27:19.990
The why on this is simple. The genetic concentration

00:27:19.990 --> 00:27:24.500
is severe. We saw genosaurs capture 73 % of the

00:27:24.500 --> 00:27:27.200
top U .S. net merit spots. We saw the dominance

00:27:27.200 --> 00:27:29.819
of European lines like AltaZazzle and Gameday.

00:27:29.920 --> 00:27:32.400
The gene pool is shrinking faster than ever before.

00:27:32.559 --> 00:27:35.299
So use mating software to monitor and manage

00:27:35.299 --> 00:27:38.299
inbreeding coefficients before every single mating

00:27:38.299 --> 00:27:40.599
decision. This isn't optional anymore. It's survival.

00:27:41.130 --> 00:27:43.450
You have to actively seek those outcross options

00:27:43.450 --> 00:27:46.829
to maintain fertility, calf vigor, and long -term

00:27:46.829 --> 00:27:49.450
herd resilience. Don't let the short -term financial

00:27:49.450 --> 00:27:52.890
gain of chasing the number one NM1 bull undermine

00:27:52.890 --> 00:27:55.309
the long -term health and fertility of your entire

00:27:55.309 --> 00:27:57.609
herd. That's the difference between a flash in

00:27:57.609 --> 00:28:00.410
the pan and sustained generational profit. Excellent.

00:28:00.549 --> 00:28:02.910
The December reckoning was. It was painful for

00:28:02.910 --> 00:28:05.069
some, but it delivered crystal clear signals

00:28:05.069 --> 00:28:07.390
on risk management, economic priorities, and

00:28:07.390 --> 00:28:09.670
genetic stability. This has been another Bullvine

00:28:09.670 --> 00:28:12.250
podcast. Remember, the lesson of December 2025

00:28:12.250 --> 00:28:15.309
is stark. Hype doesn't fill the bulk tank components

00:28:15.309 --> 00:28:18.230
and reliability do. For more straight -talking

00:28:18.230 --> 00:28:20.710
analysis, the full global rankings, and detailed

00:28:20.710 --> 00:28:25.009
treat breakdowns, head to www .thebullvine .com.

00:28:25.170 --> 00:28:27.109
And subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

00:28:27.789 --> 00:28:30.250
We're out with new deep dives every day, helping

00:28:30.250 --> 00:28:31.990
you make sense of the noise and the numbers.

00:28:32.410 --> 00:28:35.589
Next time, we're tearing apart the complex and

00:28:35.589 --> 00:28:38.589
often hidden costs of low fertility and why those

00:28:38.589 --> 00:28:40.910
elusive days open are costing you far more than

00:28:40.910 --> 00:28:41.390
you realize.
