WEBVTT

00:00:14.189 --> 00:00:20.969
Creeping over fields of green Remembering the

00:00:20.969 --> 00:00:27.269
faces The moments unseen The hands that built

00:00:27.269 --> 00:00:33.590
a dynasty The vision in their eyes Echoes in

00:00:33.590 --> 00:00:38.810
the auction bar Beneath an endless sky This is

00:00:38.810 --> 00:01:04.379
the bull buy Turn the bar Welcome to the Bullvine

00:01:04.379 --> 00:01:07.920
Podcast, where the untold stories of dairy farming

00:01:07.920 --> 00:01:11.000
come to life. Today we're diving deep into one

00:01:11.000 --> 00:01:13.760
of the most controversial and consequential stories

00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:16.680
in agricultural history. This is a podcast for

00:01:16.680 --> 00:01:20.019
dairy farmers, by dairy farmers, and about the

00:01:20.019 --> 00:01:22.980
decisions that shape our industry. We don't just

00:01:22.980 --> 00:01:26.680
report the news. We live it. Breathe it. and

00:01:26.680 --> 00:01:28.319
understand what it means when you're standing

00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:31.540
in a barn at 4 a .m. making choices that will

00:01:31.540 --> 00:01:34.959
echo through generations. Today's episode, Bell's

00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:38.420
Paradox, the worst best bull in Holstein history.

00:01:39.180 --> 00:01:41.939
Over the next 90 minutes, you'll experience the

00:01:41.939 --> 00:01:44.819
story of Carlin M. Ivanhoe Bell through the eyes

00:01:44.819 --> 00:01:47.409
of those who lived it. You'll stand in auction

00:01:47.409 --> 00:01:50.329
barns in 1971, feel the pressure of breeding

00:01:50.329 --> 00:01:53.409
decisions in the 1980s, and discover how one

00:01:53.409 --> 00:01:55.829
bull's genetics became both a blessing and a

00:01:55.829 --> 00:01:59.290
curse that still affects every Holstein cow milked

00:01:59.290 --> 00:02:02.849
today. This isn't just history. It's a warning,

00:02:02.969 --> 00:02:05.769
a lesson, and a mirror reflecting the choices

00:02:05.769 --> 00:02:09.590
we continue to make in pursuit of progress. So

00:02:09.590 --> 00:02:11.069
settle in whether you're in your truck heading

00:02:11.069 --> 00:02:13.169
to check cows, in your office doing paperwork,

00:02:13.409 --> 00:02:16.439
or taking a rare moment of rest. This is your

00:02:16.439 --> 00:02:20.080
story, told your way. Let's begin. You stand

00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:23.439
in your milking parlor at 4 .47 a .m. on a Tuesday

00:02:23.439 --> 00:02:27.400
morning in late March 1999. The familiar rhythm

00:02:27.400 --> 00:02:29.759
of the vacuum pumps fills the pre -dawn darkness.

00:02:30.379 --> 00:02:32.879
Steam rises from the backs of your Holsteins

00:02:32.879 --> 00:02:35.860
as they file into their stalls. Everything seems

00:02:35.860 --> 00:02:40.740
normal, routine, safe. But in 12 minutes, your

00:02:40.740 --> 00:02:43.539
phone will ring. The veterinarian's voice on

00:02:43.539 --> 00:02:46.110
the other end will be careful. Measured, the

00:02:46.110 --> 00:02:48.229
tone vets use when they're about to deliver news

00:02:48.229 --> 00:02:51.530
that changes everything. Your best cow, the one

00:02:51.530 --> 00:02:53.569
whose bloodline you've built your entire breeding

00:02:53.569 --> 00:02:56.969
program around for 15 years, has just lost another

00:02:56.969 --> 00:03:01.210
calf. Not to dystocia, not to infection, to something

00:03:01.210 --> 00:03:04.750
called complex vertebral malformation, a genetic

00:03:04.750 --> 00:03:07.310
defect you've never heard of, carried by a bull

00:03:07.310 --> 00:03:10.509
who's been dead for nine years. That bull's name

00:03:10.509 --> 00:03:13.990
is Carlin M. Ivanhoe Bell. His frozen semen sits

00:03:13.990 --> 00:03:17.189
in tanks in nearly every AI facility in the world.

00:03:17.590 --> 00:03:20.409
His genetics flow through millions of Holstein

00:03:20.409 --> 00:03:23.830
cows across six continents. He revolutionized

00:03:23.830 --> 00:03:26.349
milk production, made fortunes for dairy farmers

00:03:26.349 --> 00:03:28.949
from Wisconsin to New Zealand, and fundamentally

00:03:28.949 --> 00:03:32.650
altered what it means to be a Holstein cow. He

00:03:32.650 --> 00:03:35.129
also carried two lethal genetic diseases that

00:03:35.129 --> 00:03:37.689
would kill countless calves, destroy breeding

00:03:37.689 --> 00:03:40.330
programs, and cost the global dairy industry

00:03:40.330 --> 00:03:43.569
hundreds of millions of dollars. You don't know

00:03:43.569 --> 00:03:45.669
it yet, standing here in your parlor with that

00:03:45.669 --> 00:03:48.349
phone about to ring, but you're about to discover

00:03:48.349 --> 00:03:52.430
that your entire herd, every cow you milk, every

00:03:52.430 --> 00:03:55.590
heifer you're raising, every calf in your hutches,

00:03:55.629 --> 00:03:58.650
carries the legacy of a Kansas bull whose story

00:03:58.650 --> 00:04:02.169
begins 28 years earlier, on a September morning

00:04:02.169 --> 00:04:05.430
in 1971. when everything that would lead to this

00:04:05.430 --> 00:04:08.090
moment started with a decision that seemed insignificant

00:04:08.090 --> 00:04:12.889
at the time. You reach for the receiver. To understand

00:04:12.889 --> 00:04:15.250
how you got here, you need to travel back to

00:04:15.250 --> 00:04:19.230
September 1971. You're standing in an auction

00:04:19.230 --> 00:04:22.009
barn in rural Oklahoma, but you're not really

00:04:22.009 --> 00:04:24.810
here. You're John Carlin, and you're doing a

00:04:24.810 --> 00:04:28.410
favor for a friend. The smell of cattle and sawdust

00:04:28.410 --> 00:04:31.509
fills your nostrils. Your boots stick slightly

00:04:31.509 --> 00:04:34.269
to the concrete floor. still damp from the morning

00:04:34.269 --> 00:04:37.610
hosing. Around you, other farmers lean against

00:04:37.610 --> 00:04:40.610
the metal rails, studying sale catalogs, making

00:04:40.610 --> 00:04:44.110
notes in margins. You didn't plan to buy anything

00:04:44.110 --> 00:04:46.649
today. You've driven down from Kansas with a

00:04:46.649 --> 00:04:48.810
cattle trailer you'd just picked up, planning

00:04:48.810 --> 00:04:51.550
only to read pedigrees for Bob Braswell's Band

00:04:51.550 --> 00:04:54.689
W dispersal sale. It's the kind of favor dairy

00:04:54.689 --> 00:04:57.329
farmers do for each other, time given freely

00:04:57.329 --> 00:05:00.449
because next month, next year, you might be the

00:05:00.449 --> 00:05:03.339
one needing help. But the dairy industry you're

00:05:03.339 --> 00:05:07.040
part of in 1971 stands at a crossroads, though

00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:10.379
you can't fully see it yet. The Holstein breed

00:05:10.379 --> 00:05:13.560
is changing rapidly. Production is becoming everything.

00:05:14.079 --> 00:05:16.699
The days of the family cow giving enough milk

00:05:16.699 --> 00:05:19.540
for local delivery routes are ending. Larger

00:05:19.540 --> 00:05:22.100
dairies are emerging. Bulk tanks are replacing

00:05:22.100 --> 00:05:25.160
milk cans. The economics are shifting beneath

00:05:25.160 --> 00:05:27.939
your feet like sand. You flip through the sale

00:05:27.939 --> 00:05:31.379
catalog one more time. Across the country, Artificial

00:05:31.379 --> 00:05:34.139
insemination is revolutionizing dairy breeding.

00:05:34.459 --> 00:05:37.060
No longer do you need to keep a dangerous bull

00:05:37.060 --> 00:05:39.800
on your farm. Now, for the price of a tank of

00:05:39.800 --> 00:05:42.680
semen, you can access the genetics of the best

00:05:42.680 --> 00:05:45.759
bulls in the world. Companies like Select Sires,

00:05:45.959 --> 00:05:48.759
American Breeders Service, and Cemex are competing

00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:52.060
fiercely for the next great sire. The pressure

00:05:52.060 --> 00:05:54.860
is building throughout the industry. Milk prices

00:05:54.860 --> 00:05:58.079
haven't kept pace with rising costs. Feed prices

00:05:58.079 --> 00:06:00.839
fluctuate wildly. The government's price support

00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:04.220
system feels increasingly unstable. You need

00:06:04.220 --> 00:06:06.899
cows that can produce more milk on less feed,

00:06:07.079 --> 00:06:10.000
cows that can survive in larger herds with less

00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:12.579
individual attention, cows that can generate

00:06:12.579 --> 00:06:15.060
enough income to cover the loan payments that

00:06:15.060 --> 00:06:18.500
keep you awake at night. Standing here in 1971,

00:06:18.939 --> 00:06:21.980
you're also part of a larger agricultural transformation.

00:06:23.540 --> 00:06:26.560
Earl Butts has just become Secretary of Agriculture.

00:06:27.100 --> 00:06:31.180
preaching his gospel of get big or get out. Farms

00:06:31.180 --> 00:06:33.579
are consolidating. Your neighbors are either

00:06:33.579 --> 00:06:36.699
expanding or selling out. The 80 -acre dairy

00:06:36.699 --> 00:06:38.980
that supported your grandfather's family won't

00:06:38.980 --> 00:06:42.519
support yours. You need 300 cows where he needed

00:06:42.519 --> 00:06:45.459
30. You need production levels he couldn't have

00:06:45.459 --> 00:06:49.459
imagined. The Holstein breed itself is concentrating

00:06:49.459 --> 00:06:52.420
around a handful of influential sires. Round

00:06:52.420 --> 00:06:55.199
oak rag apple elevation. born just six years

00:06:55.199 --> 00:06:58.199
ago in 1965, is reshaping the breed with his

00:06:58.199 --> 00:07:01.220
incredible type transmission. Pawnee farm Arlinda

00:07:01.220 --> 00:07:04.300
chief, though long dead, still dominates pedigrees.

00:07:04.579 --> 00:07:07.139
These bulls and their sons are creating a genetic

00:07:07.139 --> 00:07:09.759
bottleneck that worries some geneticists but

00:07:09.759 --> 00:07:12.800
seems like progress to most farmers. You watch

00:07:12.800 --> 00:07:15.139
as the sail crew brings the first animal into

00:07:15.139 --> 00:07:19.079
the ring. It's an 11 -month -old heifer. Ban

00:07:19.079 --> 00:07:22.300
W. Hilo Cremel. Something about her catches your

00:07:22.300 --> 00:07:24.980
eye. Maybe it's her straight top line, maybe

00:07:24.980 --> 00:07:27.459
it's the way she moves, or maybe it's simply

00:07:27.459 --> 00:07:30.240
the fact that Braswell chose to lead his dispersal

00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:33.939
with her. In the cattle business, you learn to

00:07:33.939 --> 00:07:37.360
read the subtle signals. When someone's dispersing

00:07:37.360 --> 00:07:39.899
their entire herd and they put one animal first,

00:07:40.180 --> 00:07:42.779
that tells you something. You feel your hand

00:07:42.779 --> 00:07:45.980
starting to rise almost involuntarily. You hadn't

00:07:45.980 --> 00:07:49.180
planned this. But standing here, watching this

00:07:49.180 --> 00:07:51.959
heifer, You're making a calculation that dairy

00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:55.000
farmers have made for generations, betting on

00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:58.360
potential, gambling on genetics, investing in

00:07:58.360 --> 00:08:01.120
tomorrow's production with today's scarce dollars.

00:08:01.480 --> 00:08:04.220
You need to understand who you are in this moment.

00:08:04.360 --> 00:08:07.819
John William Carlin, driving back to Kansas with

00:08:07.819 --> 00:08:10.680
that heifer in your trailer. Your hands on the

00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:13.060
steering wheel are calloused from morning milkings,

00:08:13.160 --> 00:08:16.139
but they've also held gavels in legislative chambers.

00:08:16.829 --> 00:08:18.730
You're living a double life that would break

00:08:18.730 --> 00:08:22.490
most people. Your mornings start at 4 a .m. on

00:08:22.490 --> 00:08:25.709
your 800 -acre dairy operation outside of Saline.

00:08:25.810 --> 00:08:28.709
The familiar routine grounds you. The walk to

00:08:28.709 --> 00:08:31.430
the barn in darkness, the soft lowing of cows

00:08:31.430 --> 00:08:34.269
waiting to be milked, the steam rising from their

00:08:34.269 --> 00:08:37.149
backs in the cold morning air. You know each

00:08:37.149 --> 00:08:40.289
cow by her markings, her temperament, her production

00:08:40.289 --> 00:08:42.990
records that you keep meticulously in a notebook

00:08:42.990 --> 00:08:46.240
by the milk house. But by afternoon, You're in

00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:48.980
Topeka, serving in the Kansas House of Representatives.

00:08:49.500 --> 00:08:52.919
You were elected just last year, in 1970, at

00:08:52.919 --> 00:08:56.200
age 30. Your constituents don't fully understand

00:08:56.200 --> 00:08:59.799
how you manage both lives. They don't see you

00:08:59.799 --> 00:09:01.940
reading legislative briefs by the light of the

00:09:01.940 --> 00:09:05.139
milk house at 5 a .m. or taking calls about committee

00:09:05.139 --> 00:09:08.320
hearings while fixing a broken vacuum line. Your

00:09:08.320 --> 00:09:10.759
partnership with Lawrence Mayer makes this possible.

00:09:11.259 --> 00:09:14.549
You met Lawrence five years ago. and you recognized

00:09:14.549 --> 00:09:18.029
in him something invaluable. Competence without

00:09:18.029 --> 00:09:21.250
ego. While you handle the breeding decisions

00:09:21.250 --> 00:09:24.110
and the politics, Lawrence handles the daily

00:09:24.110 --> 00:09:27.230
operations. I took care of the cattle, he says

00:09:27.230 --> 00:09:29.389
simply, but you both know it's more than that.

00:09:29.789 --> 00:09:32.590
He's the one who notices when a cow's off her

00:09:32.590 --> 00:09:35.529
feed, who can spot mastitis before it shows up

00:09:35.529 --> 00:09:38.210
in the tank, who remembers which cows need their

00:09:38.210 --> 00:09:41.549
feet trimmed. You're also a student of genetics.

00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:44.000
though your education came through experience

00:09:44.000 --> 00:09:48.139
rather than formal training. You graduated from

00:09:48.139 --> 00:09:51.639
Kansas State in 1962 with a degree in dairy science,

00:09:51.980 --> 00:09:54.679
but your real education came from watching your

00:09:54.679 --> 00:09:57.200
father's cows, from studying the daughters of

00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.679
different bulls, from learning to see the subtle

00:09:59.679 --> 00:10:02.919
differences that separate good from great. Your

00:10:02.919 --> 00:10:06.120
political career is ascending rapidly. In six

00:10:06.120 --> 00:10:08.559
years, you'll become Speaker of the Kansas House.

00:10:08.899 --> 00:10:12.419
In eight years, you'll be elected governor. But

00:10:12.419 --> 00:10:16.320
right now, in 1971, driving with this heifer

00:10:16.320 --> 00:10:19.039
in your trailer, you're primarily a dairy farmer

00:10:19.039 --> 00:10:21.639
making a breeding decision that feels important,

00:10:21.840 --> 00:10:25.379
though you can't say exactly why. You think about

00:10:25.379 --> 00:10:29.200
the $1 ,500 you just spent. Not a fortune, but

00:10:29.200 --> 00:10:32.259
not nothing either. That's three months of milk

00:10:32.259 --> 00:10:35.299
checks from five good cows. It's the new bulk

00:10:35.299 --> 00:10:37.860
tank you've been putting off buying. It's the

00:10:37.860 --> 00:10:40.059
start of your oldest daughter's college fund.

00:10:40.700 --> 00:10:43.399
But something about this heifer feels like an

00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:46.120
investment in something bigger. You pull into

00:10:46.120 --> 00:10:48.759
your farmyard as the sun sets behind the barn.

00:10:49.580 --> 00:10:51.820
Lawrence comes out to help unload the heifer.

00:10:52.179 --> 00:10:55.120
He looks her over with his practiced eye, running

00:10:55.120 --> 00:10:57.580
his hands along her back, checking her legs,

00:10:57.679 --> 00:11:00.419
studying her utter development. He doesn't say

00:11:00.419 --> 00:11:03.200
much. Lawrence never does, but you catch him

00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:06.399
nodding slightly. That's approval in Lawrence's

00:11:06.399 --> 00:11:09.360
language. You turn Crimel out into the heifer

00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:12.120
lot with the others. She moves well, confidently,

00:11:12.440 --> 00:11:15.159
despite being in a new place. You lean on the

00:11:15.159 --> 00:11:17.659
gate, watching her establish her place in the

00:11:17.659 --> 00:11:20.860
pecking order. The other heifers test her briefly,

00:11:21.039 --> 00:11:24.340
then accept her. Standing there, you think about

00:11:24.340 --> 00:11:26.840
the breeding decision ahead. She'll need to be

00:11:26.840 --> 00:11:29.899
bred soon. The choice of bull will matter immensely.

00:11:31.159 --> 00:11:33.480
You've been studying the Select Sires catalog,

00:11:33.840 --> 00:11:36.759
looking at the available options. The safe choice

00:11:36.759 --> 00:11:39.120
would be a proven bull with balanced traits.

00:11:39.360 --> 00:11:41.799
But you're not thinking safe. You're thinking

00:11:41.799 --> 00:11:44.419
about potential. You're thinking about the future.

00:11:44.779 --> 00:11:47.379
Your wife calls from the house. Dinner's ready.

00:11:47.600 --> 00:11:50.720
You take one last look at Cremel, now settled

00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:54.039
in with the other heifers, and head inside. Tomorrow

00:11:54.039 --> 00:11:57.039
you have committee hearings in Topeka. Next week,

00:11:57.179 --> 00:12:00.659
corn planting starts if the weather holds. The

00:12:00.659 --> 00:12:03.799
rhythm of your double life continues. But that

00:12:03.799 --> 00:12:06.529
heifer in your lot... represents something more

00:12:06.529 --> 00:12:09.549
than just another addition to your herd. She's

00:12:09.549 --> 00:12:11.950
about to become the foundation of a genetic story

00:12:11.950 --> 00:12:14.529
that will ripple through the Holstein breed for

00:12:14.529 --> 00:12:18.470
generations. Her son, not yet conceived, not

00:12:18.470 --> 00:12:21.029
yet imagined, will become both the salvation

00:12:21.029 --> 00:12:24.809
and the curse of the global dairy industry. You

00:12:24.809 --> 00:12:27.809
just don't know it yet. You're standing in your

00:12:27.809 --> 00:12:31.789
barn on a mild April morning in 1973, and John

00:12:31.789 --> 00:12:33.970
Hecker from Select Sires is walking through your

00:12:33.970 --> 00:12:36.870
cows. You watch him work, noting how his eyes

00:12:36.870 --> 00:12:39.509
move systematically from legs to udder to body

00:12:39.509 --> 00:12:42.929
capacity. He's evaluated thousands of cows. His

00:12:42.929 --> 00:12:44.830
opinion matters more than you'd like to admit.

00:12:45.470 --> 00:12:48.750
Hecker stops at Cromell's stall. She's a two

00:12:48.750 --> 00:12:51.529
-year -old now, freshened six months ago. She

00:12:51.529 --> 00:12:55.909
classified 84 points. Good. Not great. Her production

00:12:55.909 --> 00:12:59.210
is solid, but not spectacular. You watch Hecker's

00:12:59.210 --> 00:13:01.570
face, trying to read his thoughts. His initial

00:13:01.570 --> 00:13:04.600
expression isn't encouraging. He runs his hands

00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:06.740
along her back, checks her udder attachment,

00:13:07.039 --> 00:13:10.139
studies her rear leg set. Then he asks to see

00:13:10.139 --> 00:13:13.179
her papers. You pull out the registration certificate,

00:13:13.600 --> 00:13:16.000
the production records, the pedigree that you've

00:13:16.000 --> 00:13:19.019
memorized. Her sire is Hilo Hillside Admiral,

00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:22.620
carrying Berkgov Inca Decal breeding, relatively

00:13:22.620 --> 00:13:26.220
rare bloodlines. Her dam's side shows Dunloggan

00:13:26.220 --> 00:13:28.759
through Mountain Mead dairyman. Hecker is doing

00:13:28.759 --> 00:13:31.360
genetic calculations in his head. The industry

00:13:31.360 --> 00:13:35.120
is drowning in chief and elevation sons. Everybody's

00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:37.519
using the same bulls, creating what geneticists

00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:41.000
call inbreeding depression, each generation getting

00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:43.139
a little less vigorous, a little less fertile,

00:13:43.299 --> 00:13:46.259
a little less profitable. The outcrossed genetics

00:13:46.259 --> 00:13:49.620
Cremel carries are becoming valuable, maybe more

00:13:49.620 --> 00:13:52.700
valuable than raw production numbers. But Hecker

00:13:52.700 --> 00:13:55.919
is hesitant. He points out the weaknesses. Her

00:13:55.919 --> 00:13:58.960
maternal line shows unclassified dams, modest

00:13:58.960 --> 00:14:01.659
production records. In an era before genomic

00:14:01.659 --> 00:14:04.539
testing, before DNA markers, before computer

00:14:04.539 --> 00:14:07.360
modeling, he has to make his decision based on

00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:10.120
what he can see and what the paper records suggest.

00:14:10.779 --> 00:14:13.879
It's art as much as science, intuition filtered

00:14:13.879 --> 00:14:16.679
through experience. You make your case carefully.

00:14:17.019 --> 00:14:20.100
You talk about her feed efficiency, how she produces

00:14:20.100 --> 00:14:23.080
well on basic rations without expensive supplements.

00:14:23.539 --> 00:14:26.379
You mention her trouble -free calving, how she

00:14:26.379 --> 00:14:28.700
bred back quickly. You point out her feet and

00:14:28.700 --> 00:14:32.440
legs. perfect angles, no trimming needed. These

00:14:32.440 --> 00:14:34.360
are the practical things that matter in commercial

00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:37.539
dairies, even if they don't win shows. Hecker

00:14:37.539 --> 00:14:39.820
proposes a deal that shows both his interest

00:14:39.820 --> 00:14:43.519
and his caution. Select sires will contract a

00:14:43.519 --> 00:14:46.559
mating to Penn State Ivanhoe star. If the resulting

00:14:46.559 --> 00:14:49.240
calf is a bull, select sires will purchase him,

00:14:49.360 --> 00:14:52.279
but only if Crimmel can reclassify at 85 points

00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:55.559
or higher. One point. The difference between

00:14:55.559 --> 00:14:59.080
84 and 85 seems arbitrary. But in the cattle

00:14:59.080 --> 00:15:02.379
business, such small distinctions determine fortunes.

00:15:02.559 --> 00:15:05.360
You shake on it, your dairy farmer's handshake,

00:15:05.379 --> 00:15:09.360
that means more than any written contract. After

00:15:09.360 --> 00:15:12.059
Hecker leaves, you stand with Cremel, running

00:15:12.059 --> 00:15:14.840
your own hands over her back, trying to see what

00:15:14.840 --> 00:15:17.759
he sees, trying to understand if you've just

00:15:17.759 --> 00:15:20.279
made a deal that matters or one that will be

00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:23.500
forgotten. The breeding takes place two months

00:15:23.500 --> 00:15:26.440
later. The AI technician arrives on a humid June

00:15:26.440 --> 00:15:29.210
morning. You've been watching Cremel's heat cycles,

00:15:29.309 --> 00:15:32.289
and she's ready. The breeding is routine. Thousands

00:15:32.289 --> 00:15:34.690
happen just like it every day across America.

00:15:34.990 --> 00:15:37.730
The technician is in and out in five minutes.

00:15:38.049 --> 00:15:40.789
But this particular joining of genetics, this

00:15:40.789 --> 00:15:43.649
moment when sperm meets egg, will reshape the

00:15:43.649 --> 00:15:46.789
entire dairy industry. Through the summer and

00:15:46.789 --> 00:15:51.250
fall of 1973, you watch Cremel carefully. Her

00:15:51.250 --> 00:15:54.190
body changes with pregnancy. The subtle widening,

00:15:54.210 --> 00:15:56.629
the fuller appearance. You increase her feed

00:15:56.629 --> 00:15:59.529
gradually. Lawrence checks on her every morning

00:15:59.529 --> 00:16:03.570
and evening, reporting any concerns. She carries

00:16:03.570 --> 00:16:06.350
the pregnancy easily, naturally, like the good

00:16:06.350 --> 00:16:09.509
brood cow she's proving to be. In December, the

00:16:09.509 --> 00:16:12.090
classifier comes for his annual visit. You've

00:16:12.090 --> 00:16:14.330
washed Crimel carefully, clipped her properly,

00:16:14.549 --> 00:16:17.629
set her up in the best possible light. The classifier

00:16:17.629 --> 00:16:20.450
is thorough, checking every aspect of her confirmation.

00:16:20.970 --> 00:16:23.730
You hold your breath as he tallies his scorecard,

00:16:23.929 --> 00:16:28.259
85 points. Exactly what you needed. Not a point

00:16:28.259 --> 00:16:31.059
more, but that's enough. The deal with Select

00:16:31.059 --> 00:16:36.019
Sires stands. On May 16, 1974, at 2 .30 in the

00:16:36.019 --> 00:16:38.960
morning, Lawrence calls you from the barn. Cromel

00:16:38.960 --> 00:16:41.539
is in labor. You pull on your coveralls and boots,

00:16:41.740 --> 00:16:44.179
grab the calving kit, and hurry through the darkness.

00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:47.299
The delivery is straightforward. Cromel is an

00:16:47.299 --> 00:16:50.500
easy calver, another valuable trait. The calf

00:16:50.500 --> 00:16:52.940
slides out, covered in fluid, and you clear his

00:16:52.940 --> 00:16:55.879
airways, stimulate his breathing. It's a bull

00:16:55.879 --> 00:16:59.779
calf, strong, vigorous, on his feet within minutes,

00:16:59.840 --> 00:17:02.600
searching for the udder. You and Lawrence stand

00:17:02.600 --> 00:17:04.660
there in the yellow light of the barn's single

00:17:04.660 --> 00:17:07.700
bulb, watching this new life take his first meal.

00:17:08.420 --> 00:17:11.740
You've decided to name him Carlin M. Ivanhoe

00:17:11.740 --> 00:17:15.059
Bell. The bell comes from your prefix, but also

00:17:15.059 --> 00:17:17.460
because something about this calf makes you think

00:17:17.460 --> 00:17:20.849
of clarity, of something ringing true. Within

00:17:20.849 --> 00:17:23.849
weeks, a select sire's truck arrives to take

00:17:23.849 --> 00:17:26.450
him to their facility in Plain City, Ohio. As

00:17:26.450 --> 00:17:28.829
you watch the trailer disappear down your drive,

00:17:29.049 --> 00:17:32.849
you feel a mixture of pride and loss. Every dairy

00:17:32.849 --> 00:17:35.390
farmer who's sold a good bull calf knows this

00:17:35.390 --> 00:17:38.869
feeling. You're sending potential away, trusting

00:17:38.869 --> 00:17:42.029
others to develop what you've created. You hope

00:17:42.029 --> 00:17:44.750
you've made the right choice. You hope he amounts

00:17:44.750 --> 00:17:47.829
to something. You have no idea that you've just

00:17:47.829 --> 00:17:51.150
sent away a bull who will generate over 500 ,000

00:17:51.150 --> 00:17:54.009
registered daughters, reshape global Holstein

00:17:54.009 --> 00:17:57.630
genetics, and carry within his DNA both remarkable

00:17:57.630 --> 00:18:00.910
gifts and terrible curses that won't be discovered

00:18:00.910 --> 00:18:04.769
for 25 years. While Young Bell grows at the Select

00:18:04.769 --> 00:18:07.230
Sires facility, you need to understand what's

00:18:07.230 --> 00:18:09.269
happening across the American dairy industry

00:18:09.269 --> 00:18:13.049
in the mid -1970s. You're living through a revolution

00:18:13.049 --> 00:18:16.259
that's moving so fast most farmers don't have

00:18:16.259 --> 00:18:19.720
time to comprehend its full scope. You hear it

00:18:19.720 --> 00:18:22.880
on the radio while milking. Another hundred small

00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:25.279
dairies have gone out of business this month.

00:18:25.579 --> 00:18:28.839
The survivors are growing larger, more specialized,

00:18:29.220 --> 00:18:32.640
more dependent on technology and genetics. The

00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:35.380
family farms that dotted every rural road are

00:18:35.380 --> 00:18:37.599
consolidating into operations with hundreds,

00:18:37.680 --> 00:18:41.400
even thousands of cows. In Wisconsin, you watch

00:18:41.400 --> 00:18:43.660
your fellow dairy farmers installing new pipeline

00:18:43.660 --> 00:18:46.319
milking systems, building free -stall barns,

00:18:46.339 --> 00:18:48.759
switching from pasture to total mixed rations.

00:18:49.220 --> 00:18:52.359
The cows never see grass anymore. They live their

00:18:52.359 --> 00:18:55.339
entire lives on concrete, bred for production

00:18:55.339 --> 00:18:58.400
rather than longevity. The old -timers shake

00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:00.519
their heads, but the young farmers understand

00:19:00.519 --> 00:19:03.799
this is survival. The pressure comes from all

00:19:03.799 --> 00:19:07.319
sides. Inflation is eating into profits. What

00:19:07.319 --> 00:19:11.720
cost a dollar in 1970 costs $1 .40 now. Feed

00:19:11.720 --> 00:19:14.519
prices spike with every drought, every flood,

00:19:14.680 --> 00:19:17.920
every international crisis. The milk price support

00:19:17.920 --> 00:19:20.779
system offers some stability, but everyone knows

00:19:20.779 --> 00:19:23.559
it's political, subject to change with each election.

00:19:23.920 --> 00:19:26.599
You attend a breeding conference in Madison where

00:19:26.599 --> 00:19:29.799
the talk is all about linear evaluation, computerized

00:19:29.799 --> 00:19:32.740
mating programs, and something called total merit

00:19:32.740 --> 00:19:36.259
indexes. The geneticists speak of heritability

00:19:36.259 --> 00:19:39.720
coefficients and genetic correlations. They show

00:19:39.720 --> 00:19:42.400
slides of bell curves and regression analyses.

00:19:43.339 --> 00:19:45.720
It's a long way from your grandfather's method

00:19:45.720 --> 00:19:47.859
of keeping the best heifer from his best cow,

00:19:48.059 --> 00:19:50.559
but there's an undercurrent of concern among

00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:52.819
the scientists that doesn't make it into the

00:19:52.819 --> 00:19:56.359
sales catalogs. The Holstein breed is narrowing.

00:19:56.400 --> 00:20:00.039
A handful of bulls dominate the pedigrees. Round

00:20:00.039 --> 00:20:03.279
oak rag apple elevation appears everywhere, if

00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:06.660
not as a sire, then as a grandsire or great -grandsire.

00:20:07.279 --> 00:20:09.619
The genetic diversity that took centuries to

00:20:09.619 --> 00:20:12.420
develop is being concentrated into fewer and

00:20:12.420 --> 00:20:15.539
fewer bloodlines. You hear whispers about something

00:20:15.539 --> 00:20:18.099
called inbreeding depression, lower fertility,

00:20:18.460 --> 00:20:21.380
higher calf mortality, mysterious health problems

00:20:21.380 --> 00:20:23.819
that seem to come from nowhere. But these concerns

00:20:23.819 --> 00:20:27.180
are drowned out by production statistics. When

00:20:27.180 --> 00:20:30.740
a bull can add 2 ,000 pounds of milk per lactation,

00:20:30.839 --> 00:20:32.839
who cares if his daughters are a little less

00:20:32.839 --> 00:20:35.480
fertile? You'll make up the difference in the

00:20:35.480 --> 00:20:38.420
bulk tank. At Select Sire's headquarters, young

00:20:38.420 --> 00:20:42.000
Bell is evaluated daily. The technicians notice

00:20:42.000 --> 00:20:44.940
his exceptional libido, his high sperm concentration,

00:20:45.400 --> 00:20:48.740
his semen's ability to survive freezing. These

00:20:48.740 --> 00:20:51.000
are the unglamorous but essential traits that

00:20:51.000 --> 00:20:54.099
determine whether a bull succeeds in AI. You

00:20:54.099 --> 00:20:56.579
can have the best genetics in the world, but

00:20:56.579 --> 00:20:58.940
if the semen won't freeze or the bull won't collect,

00:20:59.180 --> 00:21:02.500
you have nothing. Bell's early proof looks promising.

00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:04.839
His first daughters are milking in Pennsylvania,

00:21:05.440 --> 00:21:08.819
Ohio, New York. The reports coming back are consistent.

00:21:09.559 --> 00:21:12.559
Exceptional production, good feet and legs, trouble

00:21:12.559 --> 00:21:15.720
-free calvings. But also concerning notes about

00:21:15.720 --> 00:21:18.900
stature, about strength, about udder attachment.

00:21:19.480 --> 00:21:22.599
The evaluators are divided. Is he a specialist

00:21:22.599 --> 00:21:25.259
bull for commercial dairies, or could he be something

00:21:25.259 --> 00:21:28.859
more? You're not privy to these discussions back

00:21:28.859 --> 00:21:31.180
on your Kansas farm. You're dealing with your

00:21:31.180 --> 00:21:34.079
own challenges. A outbreak of mastitis that's

00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:36.799
raising your somatic cell counts. A helper who

00:21:36.799 --> 00:21:40.000
quit without notice. Corn that's not growing

00:21:40.000 --> 00:21:42.920
well in the drought. You check the Select Sires

00:21:42.920 --> 00:21:45.880
catalog when it arrives, looking for Bell's listing.

00:21:46.079 --> 00:21:50.440
But he's not there yet. Too early. Too unproven.

00:21:50.779 --> 00:21:53.920
But in the AI industry, decisions are being made.

00:21:54.200 --> 00:21:57.019
Select Sires needs to differentiate itself from

00:21:57.019 --> 00:21:59.380
the competition. They need a bull that offers

00:21:59.380 --> 00:22:01.470
something different. something that will make

00:22:01.470 --> 00:22:04.930
dairy farmers take notice. Bell, with his outcross

00:22:04.930 --> 00:22:07.650
pedigree and his early production reports, fits

00:22:07.650 --> 00:22:10.910
that need. They decide to market him aggressively

00:22:10.910 --> 00:22:13.690
as an outcross alternative to the chief elevation

00:22:13.690 --> 00:22:16.990
bloodlines dominating the breed. It's a calculated

00:22:16.990 --> 00:22:20.109
risk. If his daughters perform, select sires

00:22:20.109 --> 00:22:22.650
will have a winner. If they don't, Bell will

00:22:22.650 --> 00:22:25.170
join the thousands of bulls who wash out of AI

00:22:25.170 --> 00:22:28.069
every year, their semen dumped, their potential

00:22:28.069 --> 00:22:31.380
unrealized. The stage is set for Bell to either

00:22:31.380 --> 00:22:34.000
revolutionize the dairy industry or disappear

00:22:34.000 --> 00:22:37.779
into obscurity. There will be no middle ground.

00:22:38.259 --> 00:22:40.900
You're standing in a commercial dairy outside

00:22:40.900 --> 00:22:44.559
Turlock, California in 1982, and you're watching

00:22:44.559 --> 00:22:47.920
something unprecedented. The Bell daughters are

00:22:47.920 --> 00:22:50.460
coming into the milking parlor, and the meters

00:22:50.460 --> 00:22:52.519
on the pipeline are spinning like you've never

00:22:52.519 --> 00:22:55.740
seen. These aren't your grandfather's Holsteins

00:22:55.740 --> 00:22:58.990
producing 40 pounds a day. These cows are pushing

00:22:58.990 --> 00:23:02.710
70, 80, even 90 pounds of milk per day at peak.

00:23:03.190 --> 00:23:05.990
The herd manager shows you his DHIA records,

00:23:06.250 --> 00:23:08.430
his finger trailing down the columns of numbers.

00:23:08.809 --> 00:23:11.049
Bell daughter after bell daughter, all with plus

00:23:11.049 --> 00:23:13.789
signs next to their deviation from herd average.

00:23:14.109 --> 00:23:17.210
The math is simple and compelling. Each bell

00:23:17.210 --> 00:23:20.410
daughter is generating an extra $400 per year

00:23:20.410 --> 00:23:23.730
in milk income. With feed costs what they are,

00:23:23.930 --> 00:23:26.390
that's the difference between profit and bankruptcy.

00:23:27.079 --> 00:23:29.279
But you notice something else as you walk through

00:23:29.279 --> 00:23:32.380
the free stalls. These aren't the big, strong,

00:23:32.519 --> 00:23:35.259
deep -bodied cows that win shows at World Dairy

00:23:35.259 --> 00:23:38.779
Expo. The bell daughters are smaller, finer -boned,

00:23:38.799 --> 00:23:41.619
almost delicate -looking. They have a nervous

00:23:41.619 --> 00:23:44.519
energy, an intensity that seems to vibrate through

00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:47.079
their bodies. They're either eating or milking.

00:23:47.200 --> 00:23:49.640
There's no standing around, no wasted motion.

00:23:50.119 --> 00:23:52.779
You talk to other farmers, and the stories are

00:23:52.779 --> 00:23:56.309
remarkably consistent. In Wisconsin, a dairyman

00:23:56.309 --> 00:23:58.769
tells you his bell daughters came into milk like

00:23:58.769 --> 00:24:01.529
freight trains, explosive production from day

00:24:01.529 --> 00:24:05.309
one of lactation. In New York, a producer mentions

00:24:05.309 --> 00:24:08.549
how easy they calve, how rarely he needs to assist.

00:24:09.089 --> 00:24:11.450
In Pennsylvania, you hear about their feet and

00:24:11.450 --> 00:24:14.589
legs. No trimming needed, no lameness issues

00:24:14.589 --> 00:24:17.710
despite walking on concrete. But there's another

00:24:17.710 --> 00:24:20.549
conversation happening, quieter, among the registered

00:24:20.549 --> 00:24:23.450
breeders who show cattle and sell breeding stock.

00:24:23.789 --> 00:24:26.170
You attend a twilight meeting at the local breeders

00:24:26.170 --> 00:24:29.289
association, and the mood is different. These

00:24:29.289 --> 00:24:31.450
are the people who care about more than just

00:24:31.450 --> 00:24:33.730
milk checks. They're building cattle for the

00:24:33.730 --> 00:24:36.490
future, for the show ring, for the elite sales.

00:24:37.069 --> 00:24:39.750
An older breeder, someone whose family has been

00:24:39.750 --> 00:24:42.589
breeding Holsteins for four generations, describes

00:24:42.589 --> 00:24:46.130
Bell with barely concealed disdain. He uses the

00:24:46.130 --> 00:24:48.670
phrase that will stick, like a drunken guest

00:24:48.670 --> 00:24:52.750
at a house party. Powerful, yes, but also crude.

00:24:53.210 --> 00:24:56.109
unrefined, lacking the elegance and balance that

00:24:56.109 --> 00:24:59.789
defines a truly great Holstein. The room divides

00:24:59.789 --> 00:25:02.950
immediately. The commercial producers argue that

00:25:02.950 --> 00:25:05.490
milk pays the bills, that structural perfection

00:25:05.490 --> 00:25:08.509
doesn't matter if the cow doesn't produce. The

00:25:08.509 --> 00:25:10.990
purist breeders counter that short -term production

00:25:10.990 --> 00:25:13.630
gains mean nothing if you're destroying the breed's

00:25:13.630 --> 00:25:16.710
long -term viability. You find yourself caught

00:25:16.710 --> 00:25:20.299
in the middle, understanding both sides. Your

00:25:20.299 --> 00:25:22.519
own farm needs the income that high production

00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:25.720
brings. But you also understand breeding cattle

00:25:25.720 --> 00:25:28.480
is about more than this generation. It's about

00:25:28.480 --> 00:25:31.180
creating genetic progress that will benefit your

00:25:31.180 --> 00:25:35.859
children, your grandchildren. By 1984, Bell is

00:25:35.859 --> 00:25:38.740
everywhere. His semen is selling faster than

00:25:38.740 --> 00:25:41.839
select sires can collect it. Every AI company

00:25:41.839 --> 00:25:45.019
wants their own Bell, a bull that combines high

00:25:45.019 --> 00:25:47.359
production with enough type traits to be commercially

00:25:47.359 --> 00:25:50.450
viable. Young Sire programs are sampling every

00:25:50.450 --> 00:25:53.150
Bell son they can find, hoping to capture his

00:25:53.150 --> 00:25:55.430
production power while correcting his flaws.

00:25:56.069 --> 00:25:59.349
You visit the Select Sires facility in Ohio for

00:25:59.349 --> 00:26:02.509
a producer meeting. They bring Bell out for viewing.

00:26:02.930 --> 00:26:06.230
He's 10 years old now, still vigorous, still

00:26:06.230 --> 00:26:09.369
collecting well. He's not an impressive individual,

00:26:09.670 --> 00:26:12.910
medium -sized, plain, nothing about his physical

00:26:12.910 --> 00:26:15.430
appearance that would suggest his genetic power.

00:26:15.730 --> 00:26:18.559
But watching him, you understand that greatness

00:26:18.559 --> 00:26:21.160
in genetics doesn't always look like greatness

00:26:21.160 --> 00:26:24.960
in the flesh. The Select Sires geneticist gives

00:26:24.960 --> 00:26:27.519
a presentation on Bell's proof. The numbers are

00:26:27.519 --> 00:26:30.900
staggering. He's already sired over 32 ,000 daughters

00:26:30.900 --> 00:26:34.619
in 8 ,221 herds. His predicted difference for

00:26:34.619 --> 00:26:38.480
milk has stabilized at plus 1 ,704 pounds. But

00:26:38.480 --> 00:26:41.240
the type proofs are concerning. Miney's 4 .32

00:26:41.240 --> 00:26:44.660
for overall type, Miney 4 .59 for stature, 4

00:26:44.660 --> 00:26:47.859
.31 for strength. The udder composite is particularly

00:26:47.859 --> 00:26:52.059
troubling at 94 .72. Someone asks about longevity,

00:26:52.339 --> 00:26:54.859
and the room gets quiet. The data is preliminary,

00:26:55.240 --> 00:26:57.920
but bell daughters seem to leave herds earlier

00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:01.740
than average. They milk like crazy for two lactations,

00:27:01.900 --> 00:27:04.700
then struggle to maintain body condition, struggle

00:27:04.700 --> 00:27:07.799
to breed back, struggle to stay healthy. The

00:27:07.799 --> 00:27:10.339
average productive life is running about 2 .2

00:27:10.339 --> 00:27:13.299
years less than their herd mates. But here's

00:27:13.299 --> 00:27:15.589
the thing. you and every other dairy farmer in

00:27:15.589 --> 00:27:19.450
that room understands. 2 .2 years of lost production

00:27:19.450 --> 00:27:22.410
is a problem for tomorrow. The milk check comes

00:27:22.410 --> 00:27:25.309
next month. With margins as tight as they are,

00:27:25.430 --> 00:27:28.829
with interest rates at 15%, with feed costs climbing,

00:27:29.009 --> 00:27:32.089
you need production now. Tomorrow's problems

00:27:32.089 --> 00:27:35.109
will have to be tomorrow's solutions. You drive

00:27:35.109 --> 00:27:37.910
home from Ohio with 50 units of Bell semen in

00:27:37.910 --> 00:27:40.470
your tank. You've already identified which cows

00:27:40.470 --> 00:27:43.509
to breed to him. your tallest, strongest, deepest

00:27:43.509 --> 00:27:46.190
-bodied cows, hoping their size and strength

00:27:46.190 --> 00:27:49.950
will compensate for his weaknesses. It's a calculated

00:27:49.950 --> 00:27:52.630
risk, but then everything in dairy farming is

00:27:52.630 --> 00:27:56.130
a calculated risk. Back on your farm, you breed

00:27:56.130 --> 00:27:58.349
three of your best cows to Belle that spring.

00:27:58.910 --> 00:28:02.170
The breedings all take on first service, another

00:28:02.170 --> 00:28:04.769
Belle trait. His daughters seem to settle easily.

00:28:05.089 --> 00:28:07.990
You mark your calendar, counting forward 280

00:28:07.990 --> 00:28:11.670
days. By February, you'll have bell calves on

00:28:11.670 --> 00:28:14.269
the ground. You don't know it, but at this very

00:28:14.269 --> 00:28:16.970
moment, in research laboratories in Denmark and

00:28:16.970 --> 00:28:19.609
Canada, scientists are beginning to notice unusual

00:28:19.609 --> 00:28:23.930
patterns in calf mortality. Calves that die mysteriously,

00:28:24.009 --> 00:28:26.509
with malformed vertebrae, with immune systems

00:28:26.509 --> 00:28:29.130
that don't function. The researchers are starting

00:28:29.130 --> 00:28:31.690
to trace pedigrees, looking for common ancestors.

00:28:32.150 --> 00:28:35.609
They keep finding the same name, Carlin M. Ivanhoe

00:28:35.609 --> 00:28:38.720
Bell. You need to understand what it's like to

00:28:38.720 --> 00:28:40.980
stand in the collection barn at Select Sires,

00:28:41.160 --> 00:28:45.160
watching Bell work. It's 1985, he's 11 years

00:28:45.160 --> 00:28:47.779
old, and he's the most valuable bull they own.

00:28:48.079 --> 00:28:50.720
Every collection is worth thousands of dollars.

00:28:50.980 --> 00:28:53.880
Every unit of semen represents potential income

00:28:53.880 --> 00:28:56.779
for the cooperative and its farmer members. The

00:28:56.779 --> 00:28:59.980
collection process is methodical, almost ritualistic.

00:29:00.279 --> 00:29:03.259
Bell is led into the barn by handlers who know

00:29:03.259 --> 00:29:06.940
his every mood, his every preference. He's not

00:29:06.940 --> 00:29:09.599
a difficult bull, another valuable trait, but

00:29:09.599 --> 00:29:12.539
he has his routines. He likes to circle the mounting

00:29:12.539 --> 00:29:16.019
dummy twice before collecting. He performs better

00:29:16.019 --> 00:29:18.700
in the morning than the afternoon. Small details

00:29:18.700 --> 00:29:20.579
that matter when you're dealing with genetics

00:29:20.579 --> 00:29:23.799
worth millions. You watch his eyes as he works.

00:29:24.299 --> 00:29:27.259
There's an intensity there, a focus that reminds

00:29:27.259 --> 00:29:30.279
you of his daughters in the milking parlor. It's

00:29:30.279 --> 00:29:33.140
anthropomorphic, you know, to assign consciousness

00:29:33.140 --> 00:29:36.309
to a bull's genetic influence. But standing here,

00:29:36.430 --> 00:29:38.509
you can't shake the feeling that Bell somehow

00:29:38.509 --> 00:29:41.950
knows his importance. The technicians tell you

00:29:41.950 --> 00:29:45.210
about Bell's semen quality, exceptional concentration,

00:29:45.789 --> 00:29:49.329
superior post -thaw motility, consistent performance

00:29:49.329 --> 00:29:52.549
across different extenders. These aren't things

00:29:52.549 --> 00:29:55.089
that show up in genetic evaluations, but they're

00:29:55.089 --> 00:29:58.410
crucial for AI success. A bull can have the best

00:29:58.410 --> 00:30:00.829
genetics in the world, but if his semen doesn't

00:30:00.829 --> 00:30:03.420
survive the freezing process, he's worthless

00:30:03.420 --> 00:30:06.680
for artificial insemination. You think about

00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:09.640
the peculiar intimacy of artificial insemination,

00:30:09.759 --> 00:30:12.059
how this bull's genetics will enter thousands

00:30:12.059 --> 00:30:15.059
of cows he'll never meet, in places he'll never

00:30:15.059 --> 00:30:18.079
see. His daughters will milk in barns from New

00:30:18.079 --> 00:30:21.680
Zealand to Norway, from Israel to Ireland. His

00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:24.180
genetic influence will ripple through generations,

00:30:24.480 --> 00:30:27.099
through decades, through bloodlines that haven't

00:30:27.099 --> 00:30:30.400
even been established yet. After the collection,

00:30:30.779 --> 00:30:32.900
you're invited to the genetic evaluation office.

00:30:33.279 --> 00:30:36.319
The walls are covered with charts, graphs, bell

00:30:36.319 --> 00:30:38.759
curves, showing the distribution of genetic merit

00:30:38.759 --> 00:30:42.119
across the population. Bell occupies the extreme

00:30:42.119 --> 00:30:45.059
right tail for production, the extreme left tail

00:30:45.059 --> 00:30:48.079
for type. He's literally pulling the breed in

00:30:48.079 --> 00:30:51.880
opposite directions simultaneously. The geneticist,

00:30:51.940 --> 00:30:54.920
a young PhD from Cornell, explains the concept

00:30:54.920 --> 00:30:57.619
of genetic correlations. Some traits naturally

00:30:57.619 --> 00:31:00.319
go together. Cows with high production tend to

00:31:00.319 --> 00:31:03.099
have higher feed intake, for example. But other

00:31:03.099 --> 00:31:06.019
correlations are negative. As you select for

00:31:06.019 --> 00:31:08.779
production, you often lose stature, strength,

00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:12.240
and longevity. It's not intentional. It's built

00:31:12.240 --> 00:31:15.680
into the biology. Bell embodies these contradictions

00:31:15.680 --> 00:31:18.859
more extremely than any bull in history. His

00:31:18.859 --> 00:31:21.279
production transmission is phenomenal, but it

00:31:21.279 --> 00:31:24.259
comes packaged with systematic weaknesses that

00:31:24.259 --> 00:31:26.640
can't be separated out. You can't get Bell's

00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:29.140
milk without Bell's problems. It's a package

00:31:29.140 --> 00:31:31.940
deal. You ask about the rumors you've been hearing,

00:31:32.079 --> 00:31:35.359
unusual calf losses, strange mortality patterns.

00:31:35.599 --> 00:31:38.220
The geneticist's expression changes, becomes

00:31:38.220 --> 00:31:41.299
guarded. They're investigating, he says carefully.

00:31:41.619 --> 00:31:43.799
There might be some kind of recessive condition,

00:31:44.019 --> 00:31:46.880
but it's too early to say. They need more data,

00:31:47.000 --> 00:31:51.000
more cases, more time. Standing there, you realize

00:31:51.000 --> 00:31:53.519
Bell has become bigger than himself. He's no

00:31:53.519 --> 00:31:56.279
longer just a bull. He's a symbol of the choices

00:31:56.279 --> 00:31:58.930
the dairy industry is making. The pursuit of

00:31:58.930 --> 00:32:01.970
production at any cost. The willingness to accept

00:32:01.970 --> 00:32:05.250
short -term gain despite long -term risk. The

00:32:05.250 --> 00:32:07.569
faith that science and management can overcome

00:32:07.569 --> 00:32:10.750
biological limitations. You think about your

00:32:10.750 --> 00:32:13.369
own farm, your own bell daughters now entering

00:32:13.369 --> 00:32:15.750
the milking herd. They're everything promised.

00:32:16.049 --> 00:32:18.869
Rivers of milk, easy calvings, good feet and

00:32:18.869 --> 00:32:22.230
legs. But you've also noticed things not in the

00:32:22.230 --> 00:32:25.450
sale catalogs. They're nervous, almost neurotic.

00:32:26.089 --> 00:32:28.910
They lose condition quickly if anything disrupts

00:32:28.910 --> 00:32:31.529
their routine. They seem fragile despite their

00:32:31.529 --> 00:32:34.190
tremendous output, like engines running too hot.

00:32:34.789 --> 00:32:37.630
The facility manager joins you for lunch in the

00:32:37.630 --> 00:32:40.329
company cafeteria. He's been in the AI business

00:32:40.329 --> 00:32:43.829
for 30 years, has seen bulls come and go, fads

00:32:43.829 --> 00:32:46.890
rise and fall. You ask him directly, is Bell

00:32:46.890 --> 00:32:49.950
good for the breed or bad? He's quiet for a long

00:32:49.950 --> 00:32:52.630
moment, stirring his coffee. Then he says something

00:32:52.630 --> 00:32:56.109
that stays with you. Every generation gets the

00:32:56.109 --> 00:32:59.569
bull it deserves. Bell is what the industry asked

00:32:59.569 --> 00:33:02.750
for. Maximum production, right now, consequences

00:33:02.750 --> 00:33:06.569
be damned. We got exactly what we wanted. The

00:33:06.569 --> 00:33:08.609
question is whether we wanted the right thing.

00:33:09.609 --> 00:33:12.309
Driving home from Ohio, you think about his words.

00:33:12.490 --> 00:33:14.650
You think about the choices you're making on

00:33:14.650 --> 00:33:17.650
your own farm, the pressures you face, the trade

00:33:17.650 --> 00:33:20.190
-offs you accept. You're part of a system bigger

00:33:20.190 --> 00:33:22.769
than yourself, driven by forces beyond your control.

00:33:23.160 --> 00:33:26.920
milk prices, feed costs, consumer demands, global

00:33:26.920 --> 00:33:30.519
markets. Bell is both a cause and effect of these

00:33:30.519 --> 00:33:32.980
forces. He didn't create the demand for extreme

00:33:32.980 --> 00:33:35.920
production, but he enabled it. He didn't force

00:33:35.920 --> 00:33:38.440
anyone to use him, but his availability made

00:33:38.440 --> 00:33:41.599
it harder to resist. He's the embodiment of industrial

00:33:41.599 --> 00:33:44.740
dairy farming's promise and peril, unprecedented

00:33:44.740 --> 00:33:48.019
productivity shadowed by unprecedented risk.

00:33:48.650 --> 00:33:51.009
Your farm appears in the distance, the familiar

00:33:51.009 --> 00:33:53.529
outline of barns and silos against the evening

00:33:53.529 --> 00:33:56.849
sky. Your bell daughters are waiting to be milked,

00:33:56.849 --> 00:33:59.910
their udders full, their genetic programming

00:33:59.910 --> 00:34:02.390
driving them to produce more milk than nature

00:34:02.390 --> 00:34:06.269
ever intended. You pull into your driveway, already

00:34:06.269 --> 00:34:09.309
calculating tomorrow's breeding decisions. You're

00:34:09.309 --> 00:34:11.409
reading the Holstein world in your farm office

00:34:11.409 --> 00:34:14.909
on a cold January morning in 1987, and there

00:34:14.909 --> 00:34:18.199
it is in black and white. Bell now appears in

00:34:18.199 --> 00:34:21.760
over 30 % of the Holstein locator list. One bull.

00:34:22.079 --> 00:34:24.719
Three out of every 10 elite Holsteins in America

00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:28.280
carry his genetics. The concentration is unprecedented,

00:34:28.860 --> 00:34:31.380
dangerous, but the industry can't seem to stop

00:34:31.380 --> 00:34:34.199
itself. You get a call from your neighbor who's

00:34:34.199 --> 00:34:37.079
been using Bell heavily. His voice carries a

00:34:37.079 --> 00:34:39.699
worry you haven't heard before. He's losing calves,

00:34:39.920 --> 00:34:43.199
not just one or two, but a pattern. Calves that

00:34:43.199 --> 00:34:46.199
seem fine at birth then fade and die within days.

00:34:46.500 --> 00:34:49.320
The vet can't explain it. The nutritionist has

00:34:49.320 --> 00:34:52.960
no answers. The calves just die. You walk through

00:34:52.960 --> 00:34:55.659
your own calf barn that afternoon, checking each

00:34:55.659 --> 00:34:58.860
hutch. Your bell calves seem healthy, vigorous.

00:34:59.059 --> 00:35:01.079
But now you're looking for something you can't

00:35:01.079 --> 00:35:05.019
quite name, some sign, some warning. You think

00:35:05.019 --> 00:35:07.739
about genetic recessives, how they hide for generations

00:35:07.739 --> 00:35:10.639
until two carriers mate. With bell's genetics

00:35:10.639 --> 00:35:13.309
spreading like wildfire, the chances of carrier

00:35:13.309 --> 00:35:15.750
-to -carrier matings are increasing exponentially.

00:35:16.650 --> 00:35:20.530
Spring 1988. You're at a production sale in Madison

00:35:20.530 --> 00:35:23.329
watching bell daughters sell. The prices are

00:35:23.329 --> 00:35:28.510
astronomical. $15 ,000, $20 ,000, even $30 ,000

00:35:28.510 --> 00:35:31.750
for the best ones. Buyers from Japan, Italy,

00:35:31.989 --> 00:35:35.070
Germany, all competing. Bell genetics have become

00:35:35.070 --> 00:35:37.889
global. What started in a Kansas breeding decision

00:35:37.889 --> 00:35:40.730
is now reshaping dairy herds on six continents.

00:35:41.500 --> 00:35:43.920
But between the lots, in hushed conversations

00:35:43.920 --> 00:35:46.460
by the sale ring, you hear the concerns growing

00:35:46.460 --> 00:35:49.780
louder. Dairy farmers from Denmark mention strange

00:35:49.780 --> 00:35:52.900
calf losses. A veterinarian from Canada describes

00:35:52.900 --> 00:35:56.199
calves with malformed spines. A geneticist from

00:35:56.199 --> 00:35:58.639
the University of Guelph uses the term genetic

00:35:58.639 --> 00:36:01.960
load, the accumulation of deleterious genes that

00:36:01.960 --> 00:36:05.119
comes with intense selection. You bid on a bell

00:36:05.119 --> 00:36:07.780
daughter yourself. She's out of one of your best

00:36:07.780 --> 00:36:10.179
cows, and her production proof is outstanding.

00:36:10.920 --> 00:36:14.500
You win her for $8 ,500, more than you've ever

00:36:14.500 --> 00:36:17.420
paid for a cow. Driving her home, you wonder

00:36:17.420 --> 00:36:19.519
if you're buying the future or mortgaging it.

00:36:20.420 --> 00:36:23.880
Summer 1989. The heat is oppressive, and your

00:36:23.880 --> 00:36:25.780
bell daughters are struggling more than your

00:36:25.780 --> 00:36:29.900
other cows. They can't handle stress, heat, crowding,

00:36:29.980 --> 00:36:33.019
feed changes. They're like Formula One race cars.

00:36:33.699 --> 00:36:36.500
Incredible performance under perfect conditions,

00:36:36.719 --> 00:36:40.230
but fragile when anything goes wrong. You install

00:36:40.230 --> 00:36:43.650
extra fans, add more shade, adjust rations. You're

00:36:43.650 --> 00:36:46.349
managing around their weaknesses, spending money

00:36:46.349 --> 00:36:48.630
to support production that's supposed to be making

00:36:48.630 --> 00:36:53.949
you money. December 31st, 1989. Bell dies at

00:36:53.949 --> 00:36:56.809
Select Sires. 15 years old, not particularly

00:36:56.809 --> 00:36:59.769
old for a bull, but his job is done. He's produced

00:36:59.769 --> 00:37:02.909
millions of units of semen, enough to last decades.

00:37:03.289 --> 00:37:06.050
The obituary in the trade magazines is glowing,

00:37:06.269 --> 00:37:09.000
focusing on his production transmission. his

00:37:09.000 --> 00:37:12.079
impact on the breed. The concerns, the whispers

00:37:12.079 --> 00:37:14.659
about problems, are mentioned only in passing.

00:37:15.179 --> 00:37:18.639
January 1990. You're doing your yearly genetic

00:37:18.639 --> 00:37:21.599
audit, looking at your herd's pedigrees. Bell

00:37:21.599 --> 00:37:24.579
appears everywhere, as sire, grandsire, great

00:37:24.579 --> 00:37:27.340
-grandsire. Sometimes he appears multiple times

00:37:27.340 --> 00:37:30.079
in the same pedigree, what geneticists call line

00:37:30.079 --> 00:37:33.800
breeding. You've concentrated his genetics, intensified

00:37:33.800 --> 00:37:37.210
both his strengths and his weaknesses. You calculate

00:37:37.210 --> 00:37:40.630
that 67 % of your herd now carries Bell genetics.

00:37:41.170 --> 00:37:43.889
It seemed like smart breeding at the time, using

00:37:43.889 --> 00:37:46.230
the bull that added the most milk the most income.

00:37:46.769 --> 00:37:49.730
But now, looking at these pedigrees, you feel

00:37:49.730 --> 00:37:51.969
a chill that has nothing to do with the January

00:37:51.969 --> 00:37:54.929
cold. You've put all your genetic eggs in one

00:37:54.929 --> 00:37:57.449
basket, and you don't even know if the basket

00:37:57.449 --> 00:38:01.210
has a bottom. The phone rings. It's your veterinarian.

00:38:01.610 --> 00:38:03.929
He's just returned from a conference where researchers

00:38:03.929 --> 00:38:06.690
presented preliminary findings about something

00:38:06.690 --> 00:38:09.469
they're calling complex vertebral malformation,

00:38:09.789 --> 00:38:13.469
CVM. It's a lethal recessive causing horrible

00:38:13.469 --> 00:38:16.489
spinal deformities in calves. They've traced

00:38:16.489 --> 00:38:19.389
it back to a common ancestor. Your stomach drops

00:38:19.389 --> 00:38:22.789
before he even says the name. Carlin M. Ivanhoe

00:38:22.789 --> 00:38:25.489
Bell. You're standing in your office and the

00:38:25.489 --> 00:38:28.849
fax machine won't stop printing. Page after page

00:38:28.849 --> 00:38:32.099
of scientific data genetic analysis, confirmation

00:38:32.099 --> 00:38:35.000
of what the industry has feared but refused to

00:38:35.000 --> 00:38:37.940
acknowledge. The Danish researchers have proven

00:38:37.940 --> 00:38:41.760
it definitively. Bell is the source of CVM. Every

00:38:41.760 --> 00:38:44.760
single case traces back to him. The mathematics

00:38:44.760 --> 00:38:48.099
are devastating. Bell is a carrier, which means

00:38:48.099 --> 00:38:51.579
50 % of his offspring are carriers too. When

00:38:51.579 --> 00:38:54.760
two carriers mate, there's a 25 % chance the

00:38:54.760 --> 00:38:58.010
calf will be affected. born dead or dying shortly

00:38:58.010 --> 00:39:00.650
after birth with grotesque spinal malformations.

00:39:01.030 --> 00:39:04.150
With Bell appearing multiple times in many pedigrees,

00:39:04.329 --> 00:39:07.429
the actual risk is even higher. But CVM isn't

00:39:07.429 --> 00:39:10.210
the only problem. The researchers have also confirmed

00:39:10.210 --> 00:39:13.210
Bell carries BLAD, bovine leukocyte adhesion

00:39:13.210 --> 00:39:16.010
deficiency, another lethal recessive that destroys

00:39:16.010 --> 00:39:18.969
the immune system. Calves with BLAD can't fight

00:39:18.969 --> 00:39:22.369
infection. They die slowly, painfully, despite

00:39:22.369 --> 00:39:25.630
all treatment attempts. You pull out your breeding

00:39:25.630 --> 00:39:27.949
records, cross -referencing with the carrier

00:39:27.949 --> 00:39:31.710
lists now being published. Your hands shake slightly

00:39:31.710 --> 00:39:34.389
as you work through the calculations. Of your

00:39:34.389 --> 00:39:38.909
200 cows, 140 carry Bell genetics. If the 50

00:39:38.909 --> 00:39:42.349
% carrier rate holds true, you have 70 cows that

00:39:42.349 --> 00:39:45.630
could be carrying these lethal genes. Every breeding

00:39:45.630 --> 00:39:48.050
decision you make from now on carries a Russian

00:39:48.050 --> 00:39:51.329
roulette element. Breed a carrier to a carrier,

00:39:51.469 --> 00:39:53.800
and you might get a dead calf. But these are

00:39:53.800 --> 00:39:57.199
your best cows, your highest producers. Not breeding

00:39:57.199 --> 00:40:00.440
them means economic suicide. Breeding them means

00:40:00.440 --> 00:40:03.480
genetic Russian roulette. The phone rings constantly.

00:40:03.820 --> 00:40:06.460
Other farmers, all asking the same questions.

00:40:06.719 --> 00:40:09.440
What do we do? How did this happen? Why didn't

00:40:09.440 --> 00:40:12.019
anyone warn us? You don't have answers. Nobody

00:40:12.019 --> 00:40:15.019
does. The industry that prided itself on scientific

00:40:15.019 --> 00:40:18.280
advancement, on genetic progress, has been blindsided

00:40:18.280 --> 00:40:21.409
by basic biology. You attend an emergency meeting

00:40:21.409 --> 00:40:24.289
at the county extension office. The room is packed,

00:40:24.510 --> 00:40:27.489
standing room only. Dairy farmers who normally

00:40:27.489 --> 00:40:31.230
compete are united in crisis. The extension agent

00:40:31.230 --> 00:40:34.090
tries to explain the science, but everyone already

00:40:34.090 --> 00:40:36.670
understands the bottom line. Bell's genetics

00:40:36.670 --> 00:40:39.730
are everywhere, and they're poisoned. An older

00:40:39.730 --> 00:40:42.449
dairyman stands up, his voice cracking with emotion.

00:40:42.889 --> 00:40:45.750
He's lost 12 calves in the past year. Now he

00:40:45.750 --> 00:40:49.059
knows why. His entire breeding program built

00:40:49.059 --> 00:40:52.179
around Bell genetics for 15 years, is contaminated.

00:40:52.639 --> 00:40:55.880
The room falls silent as he breaks down, this

00:40:55.880 --> 00:40:58.360
tough farmer whose weathered droughts and market

00:40:58.360 --> 00:41:01.280
crashes reduced to tears by microscopic DNA.

00:41:01.780 --> 00:41:04.519
The AI industry representatives present their

00:41:04.519 --> 00:41:07.900
response, new testing protocols, carrier designations

00:41:07.900 --> 00:41:10.539
on all bulls, guidelines for avoiding carrier

00:41:10.539 --> 00:41:13.360
-to -carrier matings. It's comprehensive, thorough,

00:41:13.539 --> 00:41:16.320
and at least 10 years too late. The damage is

00:41:16.320 --> 00:41:18.920
done. Bell's genetics are embedded in the global

00:41:18.920 --> 00:41:21.760
Holstein population like shrapnel that can't

00:41:21.760 --> 00:41:24.820
be removed. You drive home in the gathering darkness,

00:41:25.099 --> 00:41:28.480
your mind racing through calculations. The immediate

00:41:28.480 --> 00:41:32.579
economic impact is clear. Dead calves, lost pregnancies,

00:41:32.760 --> 00:41:36.059
culled cows. But the long -term impact is worse.

00:41:36.280 --> 00:41:38.760
You can't use your best bulls because they're

00:41:38.760 --> 00:41:41.710
Bell descendants and carriers. You can't sell

00:41:41.710 --> 00:41:43.789
breeding stock internationally because other

00:41:43.789 --> 00:41:46.889
countries are blocking carrier animals. You can't

00:41:46.889 --> 00:41:49.230
even make breeding decisions without consulting

00:41:49.230 --> 00:41:51.650
carrier lists and calculating probabilities.

00:41:52.210 --> 00:41:54.750
In your barn, you stand looking at your cows.

00:41:54.989 --> 00:41:57.349
They don't know they're carrying genetic time

00:41:57.349 --> 00:41:59.489
bombs. They just do what they've been bred to

00:41:59.489 --> 00:42:03.750
do. Produce milk. Massive amounts of milk. Bell's

00:42:03.750 --> 00:42:06.789
great gift and curse combined in every cell of

00:42:06.789 --> 00:42:10.010
their bodies. Your best cow, the one you've built

00:42:10.010 --> 00:42:12.769
your breeding program around, is a Bell granddaughter.

00:42:13.530 --> 00:42:17.269
She's given you 15 ,000 gallons of milk, 12 healthy

00:42:17.269 --> 00:42:21.050
calves, countless profits. Now, you know she's

00:42:21.050 --> 00:42:24.050
almost certainly a carrier. Every breeding decision

00:42:24.050 --> 00:42:27.250
with her and her daughters is complicated, compromised.

00:42:28.050 --> 00:42:31.130
You think about John Carlin, who made that purchase

00:42:31.130 --> 00:42:34.349
in 1971, who shook hands on that breeding in

00:42:34.349 --> 00:42:38.070
1973. Did he have any idea what he was setting

00:42:38.070 --> 00:42:41.250
in motion? Could anyone have predicted that one

00:42:41.250 --> 00:42:44.130
bull would reshape and then nearly break an entire

00:42:44.130 --> 00:42:48.210
industry? The paradox is complete. Bell gave

00:42:48.210 --> 00:42:51.130
the industry exactly what it asked for, maximum

00:42:51.130 --> 00:42:54.090
production, maximum profit, maximum efficiency,

00:42:54.210 --> 00:42:57.650
but he also gave it maximum risk, maximum concentration,

00:42:58.030 --> 00:43:01.429
maximum vulnerability. The industry got the bull

00:43:01.429 --> 00:43:04.050
it deserved, as that select sire's manager said

00:43:04.050 --> 00:43:06.849
years ago. Standing in your barn, surrounded

00:43:06.849 --> 00:43:09.469
by Bell's legacy, you understand that there's

00:43:09.469 --> 00:43:12.150
no going back. You can't remove Bell's genetics

00:43:12.150 --> 00:43:14.889
from your herd, from the breed, from the industry.

00:43:15.090 --> 00:43:17.630
You can only manage the consequences, breed more

00:43:17.630 --> 00:43:20.389
carefully, test more thoroughly. The revolution

00:43:20.389 --> 00:43:23.070
Bell started can't be stopped, only directed.

00:43:23.530 --> 00:43:26.030
You're sitting in a mandatory genetic counseling

00:43:26.030 --> 00:43:29.409
session in 2001, and the facilitator is explaining

00:43:29.409 --> 00:43:32.469
how to read the new carrier codes, BY for Blad

00:43:32.469 --> 00:43:36.500
carrier. CV for CVM carrier. The simple two -letter

00:43:36.500 --> 00:43:38.659
codes that now determine breeding decisions,

00:43:39.079 --> 00:43:42.780
sale prices, export eligibility. Every bull in

00:43:42.780 --> 00:43:46.500
the AI catalogs now has these designations. Bell's

00:43:46.500 --> 00:43:49.619
legacy reduced to abbreviations. The economic

00:43:49.619 --> 00:43:52.219
impact rolls through the industry like a slow

00:43:52.219 --> 00:43:55.340
-motion avalanche. International markets that

00:43:55.340 --> 00:43:57.639
were paying premium prices for American genetics

00:43:57.639 --> 00:44:00.820
suddenly impose restrictions. No carriers allowed.

00:44:01.500 --> 00:44:03.679
Your neighbor who built his business on selling

00:44:03.679 --> 00:44:06.780
breeding stock to Europe watches his market evaporate

00:44:06.780 --> 00:44:10.219
overnight. You attend World Dairy Expo in 2002,

00:44:10.599 --> 00:44:13.719
and the change is palpable. The Bell daughters

00:44:13.719 --> 00:44:15.920
that once dominated the show ring are disappearing.

00:44:16.539 --> 00:44:19.000
Breeders are pivoting to other bloodlines, trying

00:44:19.000 --> 00:44:21.860
to distance themselves from Bell genetics. But

00:44:21.860 --> 00:44:23.780
it's like trying to remove flour from bread.

00:44:23.960 --> 00:44:27.739
Bell is baked into everything. At the Breed Association

00:44:27.739 --> 00:44:30.420
meeting, they present statistics that make your

00:44:30.420 --> 00:44:34.349
head spin. Testing shows 14 % of Holstein bulls

00:44:34.349 --> 00:44:38.829
are BLAD carriers. 23 % are CVM carriers. Some

00:44:38.829 --> 00:44:41.989
elite bulls are carriers of both. The genetic

00:44:41.989 --> 00:44:44.530
bottleneck everyone warned about has become a

00:44:44.530 --> 00:44:47.389
noose. You implement new protocols on your farm.

00:44:47.610 --> 00:44:50.869
Every animal is tested. Every breeding is planned

00:44:50.869 --> 00:44:53.929
with carrier status in mind. The computer software

00:44:53.929 --> 00:44:56.550
that manages your breeding program now includes

00:44:56.550 --> 00:44:59.809
carrier probability calculations. What used to

00:44:59.809 --> 00:45:02.519
be simple Breed your best to the best has become

00:45:02.519 --> 00:45:05.559
a complex matrix of risk management. The costs

00:45:05.559 --> 00:45:09.300
add up quickly. Testing fees, $35 per animal.

00:45:09.559 --> 00:45:12.340
Lost calves from carrier to carrier matings you

00:45:12.340 --> 00:45:16.099
couldn't avoid, $800 each. Reduced sale prices

00:45:16.099 --> 00:45:20.000
for carrier animals, 30 % discount minimum. The

00:45:20.000 --> 00:45:22.340
extraordinary milk production Bell provided is

00:45:22.340 --> 00:45:24.420
being paid for in installments you never agreed

00:45:24.420 --> 00:45:28.570
to. 2003 brings a new blow. Researchers identify

00:45:28.570 --> 00:45:31.010
another genetic defect spreading through Holstein

00:45:31.010 --> 00:45:34.250
populations, brachyspina, causing stillborn calves

00:45:34.250 --> 00:45:37.409
with shortened spines. While not directly from

00:45:37.409 --> 00:45:39.670
Bell, it's found in many of his descendants.

00:45:40.309 --> 00:45:43.469
The pattern is becoming clear. The intense selection

00:45:43.469 --> 00:45:46.230
and line breeding on popular sires like Bell

00:45:46.230 --> 00:45:49.670
has concentrated not just beneficial genes, but

00:45:49.670 --> 00:45:52.869
harmful ones too. You talk to your veterinarian

00:45:52.869 --> 00:45:55.170
during herd check, and he shares something that

00:45:55.170 --> 00:45:58.320
chills you. He's seeing more of everything. More

00:45:58.320 --> 00:46:00.940
metabolic disorders, more fertility problems,

00:46:01.159 --> 00:46:03.900
more immune system failures. The Holstein cow

00:46:03.900 --> 00:46:06.280
has become so specialized for production that

00:46:06.280 --> 00:46:09.500
she's lost resilience. Bell didn't cause all

00:46:09.500 --> 00:46:11.900
of this, but he accelerated it, concentrated

00:46:11.900 --> 00:46:15.320
it, made it unavoidable. Your daughter comes

00:46:15.320 --> 00:46:18.420
home from agricultural college in 2004, full

00:46:18.420 --> 00:46:21.400
of ideas about genomic selection, marker -assisted

00:46:21.400 --> 00:46:23.860
breeding, new technologies that will prevent

00:46:23.860 --> 00:46:27.150
another Bell situation. You listen to her enthusiasm,

00:46:27.409 --> 00:46:30.090
but you've become skeptical. Every generation

00:46:30.090 --> 00:46:32.730
thinks it has the answer, that its technology

00:46:32.730 --> 00:46:36.389
will overcome biology's basic rules. Bell was

00:46:36.389 --> 00:46:39.010
supposed to be the answer, too. She pulls up

00:46:39.010 --> 00:46:41.769
data on her laptop showing how genomic testing

00:46:41.769 --> 00:46:44.429
can identify carriers before they're even born,

00:46:44.570 --> 00:46:47.190
how DNA markers can predict production without

00:46:47.190 --> 00:46:49.710
waiting for daughter proofs. It's impressive.

00:46:50.489 --> 00:46:53.449
Revolutionary, even. But you notice the industry

00:46:53.449 --> 00:46:56.329
is still selecting for the same thing, maximum

00:46:56.329 --> 00:46:59.570
production. The tools are better, but the goal

00:46:59.570 --> 00:47:03.610
hasn't changed. By 2005, you've adapted to the

00:47:03.610 --> 00:47:06.809
new reality. Carrier status is just another factor

00:47:06.809 --> 00:47:09.289
in breeding decisions, like milk production or

00:47:09.289 --> 00:47:12.030
type scores. The industry has developed protocols,

00:47:12.389 --> 00:47:15.170
workarounds, management strategies. The crisis

00:47:15.170 --> 00:47:18.070
has become chronic condition. But the numbers

00:47:18.070 --> 00:47:21.320
tell a stark story. The average productive life

00:47:21.320 --> 00:47:24.659
of Holstein cows continues to decline. Conception

00:47:24.659 --> 00:47:28.119
rates drop year after year. The number of lactations

00:47:28.119 --> 00:47:31.340
per cow shrinks. The industry is producing more

00:47:31.340 --> 00:47:33.760
milk than ever, but the cows producing it are

00:47:33.760 --> 00:47:36.480
burning out faster, breaking down sooner. You

00:47:36.480 --> 00:47:38.619
stand in your barn one evening watching your

00:47:38.619 --> 00:47:41.079
cows. They're Bell's daughters, granddaughters,

00:47:41.260 --> 00:47:44.059
great -granddaughters. They carry his gift and

00:47:44.059 --> 00:47:47.320
his curse in every cell. They're marvels of genetic

00:47:47.320 --> 00:47:50.480
selection and victims of it. They produce milk

00:47:50.480 --> 00:47:52.800
like machines because that's what we bred them

00:47:52.800 --> 00:47:56.639
to be. But machines break down, and these machines

00:47:56.639 --> 00:48:00.280
are breaking down faster than ever. The question

00:48:00.280 --> 00:48:03.000
that keeps you awake at night, what are we doing

00:48:03.000 --> 00:48:05.559
to these animals in pursuit of ever more production?

00:48:06.000 --> 00:48:09.780
And what is it doing to us? You're standing in

00:48:09.780 --> 00:48:12.099
a state -of -the -art dairy facility in 2024,

00:48:12.480 --> 00:48:15.579
watching robotic milkers work with perfect precision.

00:48:16.320 --> 00:48:19.000
The cows wear electronic collars that track every

00:48:19.000 --> 00:48:21.780
movement, every bite of feed, every minute of

00:48:21.780 --> 00:48:24.860
rest. Computers analyze the data in real time,

00:48:25.039 --> 00:48:27.280
adjusting rations, predicting health issues,

00:48:27.500 --> 00:48:30.599
maximizing efficiency. The herd manager shows

00:48:30.599 --> 00:48:34.239
you their genetic profile on a tablet. Bell still

00:48:34.239 --> 00:48:36.559
appears in every pedigree, sometimes multiple

00:48:36.559 --> 00:48:39.739
times. His influence has become so ubiquitous

00:48:39.739 --> 00:48:42.019
that geneticists don't even track it anymore.

00:48:42.239 --> 00:48:46.059
It's assumed. Like oxygen in the air, Bell's

00:48:46.059 --> 00:48:48.460
genetics are everywhere, invisible but essential.

00:48:48.900 --> 00:48:51.480
Modern genomic testing has revolutionized breeding

00:48:51.480 --> 00:48:54.440
since Bell's time. Today, you can test a calf

00:48:54.440 --> 00:48:57.059
at birth and know its genetic merit for dozens

00:48:57.059 --> 00:48:59.940
of traits. You can identify carriers of genetic

00:48:59.940 --> 00:49:02.860
defects before they're bred. You can predict

00:49:02.860 --> 00:49:05.860
with stunning accuracy how much milk a cow will

00:49:05.860 --> 00:49:08.440
produce before she ever enters a milking parlor.

00:49:08.760 --> 00:49:11.780
But the fundamental tension Bell embodied remains

00:49:11.780 --> 00:49:15.090
unchanged. The industry still selects primarily

00:49:15.090 --> 00:49:18.230
for production. The average Holstein now produces

00:49:18.230 --> 00:49:21.610
over 25 ,000 pounds of milk per year, double

00:49:21.610 --> 00:49:24.409
what Bell's daughters achieved. But she also

00:49:24.409 --> 00:49:27.469
lives fewer lactations, requires more management,

00:49:27.690 --> 00:49:30.570
costs more to maintain. You attend a genetics

00:49:30.570 --> 00:49:32.929
conference where the speaker presents a sobering

00:49:32.929 --> 00:49:36.489
statistic. The effective population size of Holsteins,

00:49:36.570 --> 00:49:39.650
a measure of genetic diversity, has shrunk to

00:49:39.650 --> 00:49:43.320
fewer than 100 individuals. That means the millions

00:49:43.320 --> 00:49:46.039
of Holsteins worldwide have the genetic diversity

00:49:46.039 --> 00:49:50.079
of only 100 unrelated animals. Bell didn't cause

00:49:50.079 --> 00:49:52.440
this alone, but he accelerated it dramatically.

00:49:53.059 --> 00:49:55.760
The young geneticists talk about new solutions.

00:49:56.280 --> 00:49:59.199
Gene editing, crossbreeding with other dairy

00:49:59.199 --> 00:50:02.000
breeds, selection indexes that balance production

00:50:02.000 --> 00:50:05.300
with health and longevity. They're confident,

00:50:05.480 --> 00:50:08.219
optimistic, certain they can solve the problems

00:50:08.219 --> 00:50:10.820
previous generations created. You've heard this

00:50:10.820 --> 00:50:13.639
before. What they don't fully grasp, what you've

00:50:13.639 --> 00:50:16.280
learned over decades, is that every genetic decision

00:50:16.280 --> 00:50:19.460
has consequences that won't be apparent for years,

00:50:19.619 --> 00:50:23.260
sometimes decades. Bell looked like pure success

00:50:23.260 --> 00:50:26.559
for 15 years before his genetic defects surfaced.

00:50:26.760 --> 00:50:29.360
What time bombs are hiding in today's popular

00:50:29.360 --> 00:50:32.579
sires? What will the industry discover in 2040

00:50:32.579 --> 00:50:36.320
about decisions being made today? The irony is

00:50:36.320 --> 00:50:39.719
profound. Bell succeeded too well. His production

00:50:39.719 --> 00:50:42.639
genetics were so superior that the industry couldn't

00:50:42.639 --> 00:50:45.280
resist using him, even after the defects were

00:50:45.280 --> 00:50:48.260
discovered. He proved that extreme genetic merit

00:50:48.260 --> 00:50:51.159
in one trait could override all other considerations.

00:50:51.980 --> 00:50:55.059
The market wanted milk, and Bell delivered milk.

00:50:55.320 --> 00:50:58.639
Everything else was secondary. Today's genomic

00:50:58.639 --> 00:51:01.440
bulls are Bell's philosophical descendants. They

00:51:01.440 --> 00:51:04.300
promise even more extreme production, even faster

00:51:04.300 --> 00:51:07.340
genetic progress. The technology is infinitely

00:51:07.340 --> 00:51:09.929
better. but the underlying dynamic is the same,

00:51:10.070 --> 00:51:12.610
the pursuit of maximum output from biological

00:51:12.610 --> 00:51:15.690
systems that have inherent limits. Standing in

00:51:15.690 --> 00:51:18.269
this modern facility, you see Bell's ghost in

00:51:18.269 --> 00:51:21.769
every cow, every genetic evaluation, every breeding

00:51:21.769 --> 00:51:24.550
decision. He's in the software that calculates

00:51:24.550 --> 00:51:27.329
matings, in the semen tanks storing tomorrow's

00:51:27.329 --> 00:51:29.750
genetics, in the fundamental assumption that

00:51:29.750 --> 00:51:32.829
more production is always better. The question

00:51:32.829 --> 00:51:35.489
Bell forces us to ask, are we breeding better

00:51:35.489 --> 00:51:39.289
cows or just more productive ones, remains unanswered.

00:51:39.530 --> 00:51:42.949
Perhaps unanswerable. You stand in your milking

00:51:42.949 --> 00:51:46.510
parlor this morning in 2025, 51 years after Bell

00:51:46.510 --> 00:51:50.329
was born, 35 years after he died. The cows moving

00:51:50.329 --> 00:51:52.809
through the parlor are his descendants, carrying

00:51:52.809 --> 00:51:56.570
his genetics diluted but never absent. Every

00:51:56.570 --> 00:51:59.190
cow in America, really every Holstein in the

00:51:59.190 --> 00:52:02.849
world, carries some fraction of Bell's DNA. The

00:52:02.849 --> 00:52:04.869
morning routine is familiar but different from

00:52:04.869 --> 00:52:08.840
decades past. Computers monitor each cow's production

00:52:08.840 --> 00:52:12.699
in real time. Automatic takeoffs remove milking

00:52:12.699 --> 00:52:15.500
units at precisely the right moment. The milk

00:52:15.500 --> 00:52:17.719
flows through stainless steel pipes to a bulk

00:52:17.719 --> 00:52:20.300
tank that holds what your grandfather's entire

00:52:20.300 --> 00:52:24.179
herd produced in a month. You think about the

00:52:24.179 --> 00:52:26.880
cycles of history, how each generation believes

00:52:26.880 --> 00:52:29.900
it's different, smarter, better equipped than

00:52:29.900 --> 00:52:32.880
the one before. The young farmers today talk

00:52:32.880 --> 00:52:36.019
about sustainability, about cow comfort, about

00:52:36.019 --> 00:52:39.000
longevity, as if these are new ideas rather than

00:52:39.000 --> 00:52:41.360
old wisdom we forgot in the pursuit of production.

00:52:42.219 --> 00:52:44.800
Bell taught the industry humility, or should

00:52:44.800 --> 00:52:47.619
have. He proved that genetic progress is never

00:52:47.619 --> 00:52:50.659
free, that biological systems have breaking points,

00:52:50.820 --> 00:52:53.579
that what looks like success can carry the seeds

00:52:53.579 --> 00:52:56.699
of crisis. But memories are short, especially

00:52:56.699 --> 00:52:59.659
when profits are involved. You check your breeding

00:52:59.659 --> 00:53:02.820
list for today. Three cows to breed, all Bell

00:53:02.820 --> 00:53:05.559
descendants, of course. The sires you're using

00:53:05.559 --> 00:53:08.480
are genomic tested, carrier status verified,

00:53:08.800 --> 00:53:11.659
genetic merit evaluated for dozens of traits.

00:53:11.880 --> 00:53:14.780
The technology would seem like magic to farmers

00:53:14.780 --> 00:53:17.699
from Bell's era. But the fundamental question

00:53:17.699 --> 00:53:20.820
remains unchanged. What kind of cow do we want?

00:53:20.980 --> 00:53:23.340
What values do we embed in genetic selection?

00:53:23.659 --> 00:53:27.199
What trade -offs are we willing to accept? Outside,

00:53:27.460 --> 00:53:29.500
the sun rises over fields that have been in your

00:53:29.500 --> 00:53:32.139
family for generations, the same sun that rose

00:53:32.139 --> 00:53:34.960
over John Carlin's farm in Kansas, over that

00:53:34.960 --> 00:53:38.179
auction barn in Oklahoma, over 50 years of breeding

00:53:38.179 --> 00:53:41.800
decisions that led to this moment. Bell's paradox

00:53:41.800 --> 00:53:45.139
is now our permanent inheritance, the knowledge

00:53:45.139 --> 00:53:47.780
that maximum production comes with maximum risk,

00:53:47.900 --> 00:53:50.280
that genetic concentration creates vulnerability,

00:53:50.780 --> 00:53:53.579
that every breeding decision echoes through generations.

00:53:54.519 --> 00:53:57.539
We can't unknow what Bell taught us. We can only

00:53:57.539 --> 00:54:00.300
decide whether to learn from it. Your phone buzzes

00:54:00.300 --> 00:54:02.599
with a text from the AI technician. He'll be

00:54:02.599 --> 00:54:05.960
here in an hour. Time to make breeding decisions.

00:54:06.599 --> 00:54:09.059
Time to balance production against longevity,

00:54:09.420 --> 00:54:12.440
profit against sustainability, present needs

00:54:12.440 --> 00:54:15.480
against future consequences. Time to live with

00:54:15.480 --> 00:54:17.719
Bell's ghost, which is really the ghost of our

00:54:17.719 --> 00:54:20.340
own choices, reflected back to us in every cow

00:54:20.340 --> 00:54:23.159
we milk, every calf we raise, every genetic decision

00:54:23.159 --> 00:54:26.199
we make. The paradox continues. The questions

00:54:26.199 --> 00:54:29.320
remain. The cows keep producing. And somewhere

00:54:29.320 --> 00:54:32.199
in a tank of liquid nitrogen, frozen in time

00:54:32.199 --> 00:54:34.519
and potential, wait the genetics of the next

00:54:34.519 --> 00:54:37.019
bell, the next bull who will promise everything,

00:54:37.239 --> 00:54:39.960
deliver more than expected, and cost more than

00:54:39.960 --> 00:54:43.119
anyone imagined. We'll use him anyway. We always

00:54:43.119 --> 00:54:45.800
do. Because that's the nature of progress in

00:54:45.800 --> 00:54:48.880
agriculture. Always forward, never fully counting

00:54:48.880 --> 00:54:51.829
the cost until the bill comes due. You've been

00:54:51.829 --> 00:54:54.309
listening to the Bullvine Podcast, and this has

00:54:54.309 --> 00:54:58.030
been Bell's Paradox, the worst best bull in Holstein

00:54:58.030 --> 00:55:01.769
history. Bell's story isn't just about one bull

00:55:01.769 --> 00:55:05.070
or one breeding decision made 50 years ago. It's

00:55:05.070 --> 00:55:07.489
about the eternal tension in agriculture between

00:55:07.489 --> 00:55:10.510
progress and sustainability, between profit and

00:55:10.510 --> 00:55:13.309
principle, between what we can do and what we

00:55:13.309 --> 00:55:16.429
should do. Every time you make a breeding decision,

00:55:17.079 --> 00:55:19.059
Every time you look at a genomic evaluation,

00:55:19.519 --> 00:55:22.480
every time you balance production against longevity,

00:55:22.840 --> 00:55:26.079
you're living with Bell's legacy. The questions

00:55:26.079 --> 00:55:29.079
he forces us to ask have no easy answers, but

00:55:29.079 --> 00:55:31.219
asking them might be the most important thing

00:55:31.219 --> 00:55:34.679
we do. The Bullvine Podcast is produced for dairy

00:55:34.679 --> 00:55:36.980
farmers who understand that our industry's stories

00:55:36.980 --> 00:55:39.599
aren't just about cows and milk. They're about

00:55:39.599 --> 00:55:43.460
people, choices, consequences, and the future

00:55:43.460 --> 00:55:46.849
we're creating, one breeding at a time. If this

00:55:46.849 --> 00:55:49.469
story resonated with you, share it with another

00:55:49.469 --> 00:55:52.610
dairy farmer who needs to hear it. Visit thebullvine

00:55:52.610 --> 00:55:55.710
.com for more articles, resources, and perspectives

00:55:55.710 --> 00:55:58.010
that challenge conventional thinking in dairy

00:55:58.010 --> 00:56:01.269
farming. And remember, in dairy farming, as in

00:56:01.269 --> 00:56:04.050
life, the most powerful lessons often come from

00:56:04.050 --> 00:56:07.030
our biggest mistakes. The trick is learning from

00:56:07.030 --> 00:56:09.789
them before the bill comes due. Until next time,

00:56:09.889 --> 00:56:12.750
keep questioning, keep learning, and keep pushing

00:56:12.750 --> 00:56:16.829
for better, not just more. This is the Bullvine

00:56:16.829 --> 00:56:21.329
Podcast. Thank you for listening. This is the

00:56:21.329 --> 00:56:29.170
Bullvine Turn the volume high For the icons of

00:56:29.170 --> 00:56:35.269
the ages That never will die From the show ring,

00:56:35.409 --> 00:56:40.690
from the tune The quiet strength they knew Hear

00:56:40.690 --> 00:56:52.920
their stories now Coming right up Legends live

00:56:52.920 --> 00:56:53.340
here.