WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:04.950 we're sparking where we deliver the contrarian 00:01:04.950 --> 00:01:08.010 insights and uncomfortable truths the dairy industry 00:01:08.010 --> 00:01:11.450 needs to hear. I'm your host, and today we're 00:01:11.450 --> 00:01:14.609 diving into a story that's costing you $12 ,000 00:01:14.609 --> 00:01:18.109 every single month you wait to act on it. We're 00:01:18.109 --> 00:01:20.450 talking about the seven -fold price difference 00:01:20.450 --> 00:01:24.629 between Holstein bulls and beef crosses. $200 00:01:24.629 --> 00:01:28.650 versus $1 ,400 for the same calf from the same 00:01:28.650 --> 00:01:32.069 cow. Just different semen. In this episode... 00:01:32.280 --> 00:01:35.500 we expose why consultants charge $7 ,000 for 00:01:35.500 --> 00:01:39.620 what costs $150 to implement, why extension workshops 00:01:39.620 --> 00:01:42.180 are designed for attendance metrics instead of 00:01:42.180 --> 00:01:44.959 your profitability, and why major processors 00:01:44.959 --> 00:01:48.540 will lock up 70 % of the beef dairy market by 00:01:48.540 --> 00:01:52.219 2026. This is investigative dairy journalism 00:01:52.219 --> 00:01:56.060 at its finest. Let's get into it. Welcome back 00:01:56.060 --> 00:01:57.900 to the Deep Dive, where we cut through dairy 00:01:57.900 --> 00:02:00.200 industry noise to get you the insights that actually 00:02:00.200 --> 00:02:03.200 matter for your operation. Today, we're tackling 00:02:03.200 --> 00:02:06.040 something, well, something that seems like it 00:02:06.040 --> 00:02:08.300 should be incredibly simple. A revenue opportunity 00:02:08.300 --> 00:02:10.960 that's right there. But it's gotten tangled up 00:02:10.960 --> 00:02:13.099 in, frankly, a lot of unnecessary complexity. 00:02:13.860 --> 00:02:16.300 Absolutely. We're diving deep into a future piece 00:02:16.300 --> 00:02:19.099 that's definitely been making waves, generating 00:02:19.099 --> 00:02:22.240 some serious buzz. And this one, it really does 00:02:22.240 --> 00:02:24.699 have layers. Layers of opportunity, yes, but 00:02:24.699 --> 00:02:27.300 also layers of, let's call it frustrating red 00:02:27.300 --> 00:02:30.180 tape. It's going to make farmers, I think, really 00:02:30.180 --> 00:02:32.520 rethink how they're looking at one of the easiest 00:02:32.520 --> 00:02:34.949 wins out there. Beef on dairy. OK, let's set 00:02:34.949 --> 00:02:37.150 the stage here because the context is crucial, 00:02:37.289 --> 00:02:38.770 isn't it? We're in this environment have been 00:02:38.770 --> 00:02:41.810 for a while of tight margins. Milk prices are 00:02:41.810 --> 00:02:44.509 all over the place and farmers are understandably 00:02:44.509 --> 00:02:46.610 scrambling, looking for ways to bring in cash 00:02:46.610 --> 00:02:48.889 that don't involve massive capital outlay. Yeah, 00:02:48.930 --> 00:02:51.330 exactly. They need cash flow, not the kind that 00:02:51.330 --> 00:02:53.389 comes with signing, you know, another half million 00:02:53.389 --> 00:02:56.250 dollar note for a new barn or fancy robots. They 00:02:56.250 --> 00:02:58.830 need simple, reliable revenue streams, stuff 00:02:58.830 --> 00:03:01.330 they can implement now. And the market data shows 00:03:01.330 --> 00:03:04.069 they want this. The interest is definitely there. 00:03:04.150 --> 00:03:06.810 We're looking at the NAB report, the National 00:03:06.810 --> 00:03:10.090 Association of Animal Breeders 2024 annual figures. 00:03:10.349 --> 00:03:12.550 Right. And those numbers are pretty staggering. 00:03:12.849 --> 00:03:16.449 84 % of all beef semen sold is now going to dairy 00:03:16.449 --> 00:03:19.930 farms. 84%. That's not just a little trend. That's 00:03:19.930 --> 00:03:22.490 a fundamental shift in the industry. It really 00:03:22.490 --> 00:03:25.750 is. It shows the desire, the need to make this 00:03:25.750 --> 00:03:28.729 change is widespread. It's clearly driven by 00:03:28.729 --> 00:03:31.270 economics, by... Let's be honest, a bit of desperation 00:03:31.270 --> 00:03:33.490 for some. But it's not just about who wants to 00:03:33.490 --> 00:03:35.650 do it. The real stakes, the urgency, it comes 00:03:35.650 --> 00:03:37.449 down to the dollars and cents at the auction 00:03:37.449 --> 00:03:40.250 barn. And this disparity is, well, it's why we 00:03:40.250 --> 00:03:43.110 need to talk about this now. We've got USDA Agricultural 00:03:43.110 --> 00:03:45.590 Marketing Service reports, fresh data from October 00:03:45.590 --> 00:03:47.710 15th right across Midwest auctions. And what 00:03:47.710 --> 00:03:49.509 are they saying? Straight Holstein bulls? Yeah. 00:03:49.610 --> 00:03:51.610 What are they fetching? Barely making weight, 00:03:51.729 --> 00:03:56.370 really. $190 maybe. $210 if you're lucky, if 00:03:56.370 --> 00:03:57.969 the buyer's feeling generous that day. Okay, 00:03:58.030 --> 00:04:00.810 so $200, give or take, that's your ceiling for 00:04:00.810 --> 00:04:02.729 a dairy bull calf. Pretty much. Now contrast 00:04:02.729 --> 00:04:05.469 that, the beef crosses come into the ring. And 00:04:05.469 --> 00:04:07.210 the whole atmosphere changes, doesn't it? You 00:04:07.210 --> 00:04:08.710 can hear it in the auctioneer's voice. Totally. 00:04:08.750 --> 00:04:11.090 They're consistently pulling $1 ,200 to $1 ,400. 00:04:11.949 --> 00:04:14.250 Consistently. $1 ,200 to $1 ,400, okay. And we 00:04:14.250 --> 00:04:16.990 even saw reports one really nice Angus cross 00:04:16.990 --> 00:04:22.699 heifer cap hit $1 ,575. Wow. Okay, so let's just 00:04:22.699 --> 00:04:25.339 take that baseline difference. Yeah. $200 versus, 00:04:25.439 --> 00:04:28.660 let's say, $1 ,300 on average. That's the number. 00:04:28.779 --> 00:04:31.939 $1 ,200 to $1 ,400 is the reliable range. That's 00:04:31.939 --> 00:04:34.060 seven times the money. Just pause on that. Seven. 00:04:35.100 --> 00:04:38.160 Times. Money. It's the same cow. Exactly. Same 00:04:38.160 --> 00:04:40.199 cow carrying the calf, same feed going into her, 00:04:40.220 --> 00:04:42.379 same water, same barn space. Same buyers, often 00:04:42.379 --> 00:04:44.579 standing ringside. Often the very same buyers. 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:46.480 The only physical difference is swapping out, 00:04:46.560 --> 00:04:49.519 what, a $20 dairy straw for a $25 beef straw? 00:04:49.720 --> 00:04:53.019 Right. A $5 difference in input cost for $1 ,100 00:04:53.019 --> 00:04:55.360 difference in output price. It should be the 00:04:55.360 --> 00:04:57.300 easiest decision a farmer makes all year, like 00:04:57.300 --> 00:04:59.889 you said earlier. But it's not, is it? And that's 00:04:59.889 --> 00:05:02.209 the core of this deep dive, the real controversy 00:05:02.209 --> 00:05:05.370 here. The problem isn't the technology. The deck 00:05:05.370 --> 00:05:08.910 is simple. It's cheap. It's a $25 straw. So what 00:05:08.910 --> 00:05:11.379 is the problem? It's the delay. The mandated 00:05:11.379 --> 00:05:15.100 complexity, the advice that's being pushed. We're 00:05:15.100 --> 00:05:18.779 seeing this push for like a $6 ,000, $7 ,000 00:05:18.779 --> 00:05:21.779 planning phase. Testing, consulting, strategy 00:05:21.779 --> 00:05:23.620 sessions. All before the farmer is supposedly 00:05:23.620 --> 00:05:26.779 allowed to try the actual fix. Exactly. Before 00:05:26.779 --> 00:05:30.079 they spent $150 on five straws just to see if 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:32.120 it works on their worst cows. The planning costs 00:05:32.120 --> 00:05:35.160 thousands. The fixed costs, pocket change. It's 00:05:35.160 --> 00:05:37.199 completely backwards. Astronomically higher. 00:05:37.719 --> 00:05:39.899 And we can't ignore the clock ticking here either. 00:05:39.939 --> 00:05:43.319 There's this looming 2026 deadline with processor 00:05:43.319 --> 00:05:44.980 consolidation. We'll get into that more later. 00:05:45.060 --> 00:05:47.079 But yeah, the urgency is real. It means if you 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:49.509 spend the next six months. developing a comprehensive 00:05:49.509 --> 00:05:51.810 plan like the consultants tell you to. You might 00:05:51.810 --> 00:05:53.930 miss the boat entirely. The market isn't waiting 00:05:53.930 --> 00:05:56.230 for your feasibility study. Not at all. Okay, 00:05:56.269 --> 00:05:58.410 let's really nail down these numbers. That $1 00:05:58.410 --> 00:06:01.110 ,200 price gap isn't just an anecdote. No, the 00:06:01.110 --> 00:06:03.970 USDA AMS reports confirm it week after week. 00:06:04.170 --> 00:06:06.189 It's the minimum average difference you're seeing. 00:06:06.629 --> 00:06:09.389 Consistently, $1 ,200 to $1 ,400 for the beef 00:06:09.389 --> 00:06:12.139 crosses. Holstein's struggling to break $200. 00:06:12.339 --> 00:06:15.079 Let's translate that. Think about a typical dairy, 00:06:15.160 --> 00:06:18.319 maybe 200 cows milking. They're breeding maybe 00:06:18.319 --> 00:06:21.819 120 calves a year total, some for replacement, 00:06:22.040 --> 00:06:24.500 some destined for beef anyway. Right. So let's 00:06:24.500 --> 00:06:27.439 say out of those 120, they decide to use dairy 00:06:27.439 --> 00:06:30.000 semen on just 50 calves that aren't absolutely 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:32.500 critical for replacement. Maybe lower end cows 00:06:32.500 --> 00:06:34.899 are not sure about keeping long term. Okay. 50 00:06:34.899 --> 00:06:38.079 calves bred to Holstein bulls at $200 a pup. 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:40.959 That's $10 ,000. Simple math. Now, what if they'd 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:43.959 use beef semen on those same 50 cows at, say, 00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:47.600 $1 ,300 average? 50 times $1 ,300. That's $65 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:51.720 ,000. So $10 ,000 versus $65 ,000. The difference, 00:06:51.899 --> 00:06:54.000 the opportunity cost, the cash they just voluntarily 00:06:54.000 --> 00:06:57.600 left on the table is $55 ,000. $55 ,000 in additional 00:06:57.600 --> 00:06:59.339 revenue. And this is the kicker. What did it 00:06:59.339 --> 00:07:02.699 cost to get that extra $55 ,000? Well, the semen 00:07:02.699 --> 00:07:05.139 cost difference is maybe five bucks a straw times 00:07:05.139 --> 00:07:09.259 50 cows. Maybe, let's say they used 1 .5 straws 00:07:09.259 --> 00:07:12.600 per conception, so 75 straws. That's under $400 00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:15.699 in extra semen cost. So less than $400 cost for 00:07:15.699 --> 00:07:19.000 $55 ,000 gain, and crucially, no extra capital 00:07:19.000 --> 00:07:21.740 investment needed. None. No new buildings, no 00:07:21.740 --> 00:07:23.819 asking the bank for another loan, no hiring extra 00:07:23.819 --> 00:07:26.379 people. It's pure margin, pure profit improvement, 00:07:26.579 --> 00:07:29.459 driven by a tiny change in input. And you see 00:07:29.459 --> 00:07:31.920 farmers, understandably, agonizing over milk 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:34.439 prices, fighting for every penny per hundredweight. 00:07:34.759 --> 00:07:37.019 They're debating cutting protein supplement by 00:07:37.019 --> 00:07:39.819 a tiny bit to save 50 cents, maybe save $5 ,000 00:07:39.819 --> 00:07:41.620 over the whole year. Which is important, don't 00:07:41.620 --> 00:07:44.240 get me wrong. Absolutely. But at the same time, 00:07:44.300 --> 00:07:46.480 they're potentially walking away from $1 ,100 00:07:46.480 --> 00:07:49.939 per calf on dozens of animals. It's this huge 00:07:49.939 --> 00:07:52.399 inefficiency that when you add it all up, it 00:07:52.399 --> 00:07:54.279 can become a question of solvency. Let's think 00:07:54.279 --> 00:07:56.199 about the cumulative impact, too. It's not just 00:07:56.199 --> 00:07:59.180 one year. Say a farm needs to restructure debt 00:07:59.180 --> 00:08:01.600 or just needs cash to cover rising fuel costs, 00:08:01.699 --> 00:08:04.540 labor or whatever. If they miss out on that $50 00:08:04.540 --> 00:08:07.420 ,000 or $60 ,000 this year and then again next 00:08:07.420 --> 00:08:09.519 year, just because they stuck with dairy semen 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:13.339 18 months ago. That's over $100 ,000 cash shortfall 00:08:13.339 --> 00:08:16.120 across two years. And what does that mean practically? 00:08:16.459 --> 00:08:18.100 That's the difference between making your loan 00:08:18.100 --> 00:08:20.639 payments comfortably and getting put on the bank's 00:08:20.639 --> 00:08:23.100 watch list. It's the difference between paying 00:08:23.100 --> 00:08:25.839 down debt and racking up interest on the operating 00:08:25.839 --> 00:08:29.879 line just to buy feed. That small decision today 00:08:29.879 --> 00:08:31.720 ripples through the balance sheet for years. 00:08:32.059 --> 00:08:34.539 My gut reaction, just looking at the farm finance 00:08:34.539 --> 00:08:37.460 side, if I'm culling, let's say, just 10 cows 00:08:37.460 --> 00:08:39.519 a month that aren't making the replacement cut, 00:08:39.600 --> 00:08:41.519 and I get those $200 checks, okay, that's $2 00:08:41.519 --> 00:08:44.539 ,000, but what could I have gotten? 10 cows times, 00:08:44.620 --> 00:08:48.200 say, $13. That's $13 ,000. So by taking the $2 00:08:48.200 --> 00:08:51.799 ,000, I'm actively choosing to forego $11 ,000 00:08:51.799 --> 00:08:54.259 every single month. It's a hemorrhage, like you 00:08:54.259 --> 00:08:56.299 said. $11 ,000 a month. What does that cover 00:08:56.299 --> 00:08:59.879 on, say, a 150 -cow operation? That's easily 00:08:59.879 --> 00:09:02.799 a month's worth of diesel and repairs. Or paying 00:09:02.799 --> 00:09:05.299 a good full -time employee for two months during 00:09:05.299 --> 00:09:08.000 planting or harvest season. It's real money that's 00:09:08.000 --> 00:09:10.519 just evaporating. Yeah. Because the system has 00:09:10.519 --> 00:09:12.539 somehow convinced people they need a PhD and 00:09:12.539 --> 00:09:16.120 a $7 ,000 plan before making a simple $25 purchase 00:09:16.120 --> 00:09:18.919 decision. And it hits farms of all sizes. If 00:09:18.919 --> 00:09:21.259 you're smaller, say 80 cows. That difference 00:09:21.259 --> 00:09:24.580 between maybe $8 ,000 from bull calves versus 00:09:24.580 --> 00:09:28.879 $50 ,000 or $60 ,000 from beef crosses. That 00:09:28.879 --> 00:09:30.779 is your cash flow. That's the difference between 00:09:30.779 --> 00:09:33.279 making it and needing the operating line constantly. 00:09:33.500 --> 00:09:36.480 And for a larger farm, scaling that $50 ,000 00:09:36.480 --> 00:09:39.080 or $60 ,000 difference across hundreds of calves. 00:09:39.299 --> 00:09:42.129 It adds serious dollars to the bottom line. millions 00:09:42.129 --> 00:09:44.450 potentially, without the headache and risk of 00:09:44.450 --> 00:09:46.389 building a whole new barn or parlor. It's just 00:09:46.389 --> 00:09:48.409 profit optimization using the assets you already 00:09:48.409 --> 00:09:50.470 have more effectively. It seems like the lowest 00:09:50.470 --> 00:09:52.250 hanging fruit, the easiest lever to pull for 00:09:52.250 --> 00:09:55.450 profitability right now. And yet the whole advisory 00:09:55.450 --> 00:09:57.730 system seems designed to make it feel like rocket 00:09:57.730 --> 00:10:00.559 science. Which brings us right to this implementation 00:10:00.559 --> 00:10:03.679 intention gap. We have to challenge the standard 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:05.860 advice here. What's the script? You know, the 00:10:05.860 --> 00:10:08.080 one farmers hear from extension, from consultants, 00:10:08.200 --> 00:10:11.080 when they ask about breeding to beef. Oh, it's 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:13.559 practically memorized. Standard issue. Well, 00:10:13.580 --> 00:10:16.620 first, you need comprehensive genomic testing. 00:10:16.779 --> 00:10:20.840 Step one, always testing. Always. Then you need 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:23.480 to build your breeding hierarchy, optimize your 00:10:23.480 --> 00:10:26.460 genetic selection matrix, blah, blah, blah. Plan, 00:10:26.480 --> 00:10:29.279 plan, plan, focus on perfection, maybe seven 00:10:29.279 --> 00:10:31.340 generations down the road. Instead of putting 00:10:31.340 --> 00:10:33.820 cash in your pocket today, it's all about future 00:10:33.820 --> 00:10:36.240 optimization over current reality. They insist 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:38.200 you need this perfect, scientifically validated 00:10:38.200 --> 00:10:40.940 plan before you order the first beef straw. But 00:10:40.940 --> 00:10:43.259 the actual data, the behavioral research, tells 00:10:43.259 --> 00:10:45.299 a very different story. Yeah, this research from 00:10:45.299 --> 00:10:47.960 the Agricultural Systems Journal, March. 2024. 00:10:48.419 --> 00:10:51.120 It's fascinating because it's just basic human 00:10:51.120 --> 00:10:53.720 psychology applied to farming. What did it find? 00:10:53.899 --> 00:10:55.860 It found that farmers who use what they call 00:10:55.860 --> 00:10:58.960 satisficing strategies, good enough practical 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:02.159 decisions, like just jumping in, starting immediately 00:11:02.159 --> 00:11:04.759 with the cows they know are culls, the obvious 00:11:04.759 --> 00:11:07.460 ones. Those farmers actually had better sustained 00:11:07.460 --> 00:11:09.919 adoption rates. They stuck with beef on dairy 00:11:09.919 --> 00:11:11.860 longer than the farmers who spent six months 00:11:11.860 --> 00:11:14.590 or a year planning the perfect strategy. That's 00:11:14.590 --> 00:11:17.070 brilliant because it nails the problem with overplanning. 00:11:17.070 --> 00:11:19.470 It's that gap. The implementation intention gap. 00:11:19.629 --> 00:11:22.230 Right. The longer you wait between deciding you 00:11:22.230 --> 00:11:24.309 want to do something and actually doing it, the 00:11:24.309 --> 00:11:26.429 less likely you are to ever follow through. We 00:11:26.429 --> 00:11:28.889 all do it, right? Decide to start exercising, 00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:31.970 spend weeks researching gyms and plans. And never 00:11:31.970 --> 00:11:34.610 actually go. Yeah. So this current structure, 00:11:34.750 --> 00:11:37.629 the mandate to wait for the $7 ,000 comprehensive 00:11:37.629 --> 00:11:41.169 plan. It actively makes the problem worse. It 00:11:41.169 --> 00:11:44.210 widens that gap. It takes a simple $25 action 00:11:44.210 --> 00:11:47.129 ordering different semen and turns it into this 00:11:47.129 --> 00:11:49.990 massive, intimidating, expensive project. Makes 00:11:49.990 --> 00:11:52.509 it feel overwhelming. Exactly. The farmer's already 00:11:52.509 --> 00:11:53.850 stressed about everything else. You hand them 00:11:53.850 --> 00:11:56.269 a 50 -page binder full of charts and genetic 00:11:56.269 --> 00:11:58.909 codes. It goes into the deal with this later, 00:11:59.090 --> 00:12:03.730 maybe, pile. Precisely. And the proof that people 00:12:03.730 --> 00:12:06.710 are jumping in anyway is right there in the NEAB. 00:12:07.360 --> 00:12:10.120 The semen sales numbers we mentioned. 7 .9 million 00:12:10.120 --> 00:12:13.679 units of beef semen sold to dairies, 84 % of 00:12:13.679 --> 00:12:16.080 all beef semen. You can bet the vast majority 00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:18.100 of those farmers didn't sit through six months 00:12:18.100 --> 00:12:20.480 of consulting meetings first. They saw the $1 00:12:20.480 --> 00:12:23.240 ,200 price difference at the sale barn, they 00:12:23.240 --> 00:12:25.299 needed the cash flow, and they just started. 00:12:25.500 --> 00:12:28.039 They likely skipped the optimization matrix entirely. 00:12:28.480 --> 00:12:30.659 They grabbed the life preserver instead of waiting 00:12:30.659 --> 00:12:33.309 for swimming lessons. Well put. And the market 00:12:33.309 --> 00:12:35.529 rewards that action, doesn't it? It doesn't reward 00:12:35.529 --> 00:12:38.769 perfect planning. That never happens. If 84 % 00:12:38.769 --> 00:12:41.129 of the industry is doing it, it clearly works 00:12:41.129 --> 00:12:43.529 well enough at a basic level. The ones making 00:12:43.529 --> 00:12:46.269 the money are the ones who act it. Okay, let's 00:12:46.269 --> 00:12:48.210 really follow the money trail here, because this 00:12:48.210 --> 00:12:50.149 is where that six -month planning delay isn't 00:12:50.149 --> 00:12:53.269 just inefficient, it starts to look, well... 00:12:53.500 --> 00:12:55.919 Punitive. Almost predatory. Let's break down 00:12:55.919 --> 00:12:58.080 how they get to that $6 ,000 or $7 ,000 figure. 00:12:58.340 --> 00:13:00.519 Right. The consultant cost structure, it starts 00:13:00.519 --> 00:13:02.700 with the initial visit, right? Usually. Just 00:13:02.700 --> 00:13:04.620 to come out, walk the farm, assess the situation. 00:13:05.159 --> 00:13:08.460 That's easily $500 to $800 right there. The discovery 00:13:08.460 --> 00:13:10.779 phase, where they discover you need their expensive 00:13:10.779 --> 00:13:14.279 plan. Bingo. Then comes the inevitable push. 00:13:15.639 --> 00:13:17.519 Comprehensive genomic testing. Which we just 00:13:17.519 --> 00:13:19.879 talked about. Yeah. It's around $40 per cow, 00:13:20.039 --> 00:13:22.740 maybe more depending on the test. Plus, often, 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:25.039 There are coordination fees tacked on for the 00:13:25.039 --> 00:13:27.120 consultant to handle the samples and data. So 00:13:27.120 --> 00:13:31.399 for a pretty modest 100 -cow herd... You're instantly 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:34.419 looking at $4 ,000 just for testing. Testing 00:13:34.419 --> 00:13:36.960 that... for the cull cows just confirms what 00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:39.379 your own eyes and records already told you okay 00:13:39.379 --> 00:13:41.559 so four thousand dollars for testing plus the 00:13:41.559 --> 00:13:44.139 500 800 initial visit we're already close to 00:13:44.139 --> 00:13:46.320 five grand then add in maybe a couple of monthly 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:48.659 check -in calls or visits while they analyze 00:13:48.659 --> 00:13:50.700 the data another few hundred bucks each time 00:13:50.700 --> 00:13:53.120 plus the time build for actually writing up the 00:13:53.120 --> 00:13:55.740 comprehensive strategy document so yes six thousand 00:13:55.740 --> 00:13:57.840 dollars seven thousand dollars maybe even more 00:13:57.840 --> 00:14:00.100 and you haven't even bred a single cow to beef 00:14:00.100 --> 00:14:02.759 yet based on this grand plan seven thousand dollars 00:14:02.759 --> 00:14:04.429 just stop and think about that figure you're 00:14:04.429 --> 00:14:07.549 on a farm budget. What else does $7 ,000 buy 00:14:07.549 --> 00:14:10.570 you? Tangible things you need. At today's prices, 00:14:10.769 --> 00:14:14.250 that's maybe 600 good round bales of hay. Which 00:14:14.250 --> 00:14:17.429 is winter feed for 40 cows, easily. Or half a 00:14:17.429 --> 00:14:19.110 year's worth of sawdust bedding for a typical 00:14:19.110 --> 00:14:22.250 100 cow freestall. Or think equipment. You could 00:14:22.250 --> 00:14:24.789 probably find a decent used TMR mixer for that, 00:14:24.909 --> 00:14:26.929 something that could cut your feed waste by 10%. 00:14:26.929 --> 00:14:30.330 So the choice becomes, invest $7 ,000 in actual 00:14:30.330 --> 00:14:32.870 feed, bedding, or efficiency boosting equipment. 00:14:33.660 --> 00:14:36.559 Or invest it in a consultant's binder. A binder 00:14:36.559 --> 00:14:38.360 that tells you things you mostly already knew, 00:14:38.480 --> 00:14:42.179 delaying the actual $1 ,100 per calf revenue 00:14:42.179 --> 00:14:45.080 stream. It's sacrificing survival essentials 00:14:45.080 --> 00:14:47.500 for strategy documents. And what's in that binder 00:14:47.500 --> 00:14:49.580 usually? What's the deliverable for $7 ,000? 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:53.059 Lots of complicated looking charts, genetic trend 00:14:53.059 --> 00:14:57.149 graphs, optimization matrices. Often advice based 00:14:57.149 --> 00:15:00.450 on national averages or data from giant farms 00:15:00.450 --> 00:15:02.669 in total different climates, which might have 00:15:02.669 --> 00:15:05.210 zero relevance to your local conditions, your 00:15:05.210 --> 00:15:07.549 feed costs, your buyers. It's designed to look 00:15:07.549 --> 00:15:10.429 impressive, sophisticated, not necessarily immediately 00:15:10.429 --> 00:15:13.049 actionable or relevant. Exactly. And the whole 00:15:13.049 --> 00:15:15.990 structure cleverly hides the ridiculously simple 00:15:15.990 --> 00:15:18.570 cost benefit here. The actual change is using 00:15:18.570 --> 00:15:21.429 a $20 beef straw instead of a $20 dairy straw. 00:15:21.549 --> 00:15:24.340 That's it. The solution costs $5 more per attempt. 00:15:24.460 --> 00:15:27.940 The planning costs $7 ,000. The industry has 00:15:27.940 --> 00:15:30.559 literally built a multi -thousand -dollar process 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:33.659 around a $5 decision. It generates complexity 00:15:33.659 --> 00:15:36.440 where none needs to exist. Which leads to the 00:15:36.440 --> 00:15:39.379 crucial hidden cost, the planning trap opportunity 00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:42.279 cost. Right. We established earlier waiting just 00:15:42.279 --> 00:15:45.139 one month, breeding just 10 cows to dairy instead 00:15:45.139 --> 00:15:49.669 of beef, costs you about $11 ,000. in lost potential 00:15:49.669 --> 00:15:51.990 revenue. And these consulting plans, they often 00:15:51.990 --> 00:15:55.370 take three, four, sometimes six months to develop 00:15:55.370 --> 00:15:58.009 and roll out. So let's be conservative. Say you 00:15:58.009 --> 00:16:00.370 wait five months for the perfect plan. Five months 00:16:00.370 --> 00:16:04.649 times $11 ,000. That's $55 ,000. You forfeited 00:16:04.649 --> 00:16:07.490 $55 ,000 in cash flow while waiting for the plan 00:16:07.490 --> 00:16:09.730 to be delivered. And does the consultant ever 00:16:09.730 --> 00:16:12.370 mention that $55 ,000 opportunity cost in their 00:16:12.370 --> 00:16:15.190 proposal? Never. Not once. They talk about potential 00:16:15.190 --> 00:16:17.769 future genetic gains years down the line. They 00:16:17.769 --> 00:16:19.809 never calculate the actual cash you're bleeding 00:16:19.809 --> 00:16:21.970 right now by delaying. The farm needs cash flow 00:16:21.970 --> 00:16:23.929 today. To pay the feed bill, make the loan payment, 00:16:23.990 --> 00:16:26.289 keep the lights on. And this system demands they 00:16:26.289 --> 00:16:28.970 hemorrhage cash for half a year, chasing theoretical 00:16:28.970 --> 00:16:31.129 perfection. Which the research shows they're 00:16:31.129 --> 00:16:33.330 less likely to stick with anyway than if they 00:16:33.330 --> 00:16:35.750 just started messy and adapted. It makes no sense. 00:16:36.549 --> 00:16:38.649 Okay, enough theory. Let's look at real world 00:16:38.649 --> 00:16:43.090 examples. Does this just start approach actually 00:16:43.090 --> 00:16:45.860 work? We have that Fond du Lac farmer anecdote. 00:16:46.159 --> 00:16:48.240 Yeah, the Fond du Lac story is a perfect illustration. 00:16:48.679 --> 00:16:51.500 Puts the plan first dogma in its place. Guy runs, 00:16:51.639 --> 00:16:55.059 what, about 280 head? Old school Ticenol barn, 00:16:55.259 --> 00:16:58.519 typical Midwestern setup. Exactly the kind of 00:16:58.519 --> 00:17:00.639 farm feeling the squeeze. So what did he do? 00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:03.600 18 months ago, he just started. Pretty much. 00:17:03.740 --> 00:17:06.680 Started breeding his obvious cull cows to beef 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:09.960 semen. What was his comprehensive strategy? Did 00:17:09.960 --> 00:17:12.319 he get the genomics? Hire a consultant? Nope, 00:17:12.380 --> 00:17:14.960 none of that. He just used his eyes and his records, 00:17:15.180 --> 00:17:17.480 picked out the classic problem cows, you know, 00:17:17.480 --> 00:17:19.240 the three teeter that's a hassle to milk, the 00:17:19.240 --> 00:17:21.099 cow that's been open for months and just won't 00:17:21.099 --> 00:17:23.579 settle, the chronic mastitis case that's eating 00:17:23.579 --> 00:17:25.880 up vet bills and dumped milk. The ones every 00:17:25.880 --> 00:17:28.059 farmer knows are on their way out anyway. Exactly. 00:17:28.059 --> 00:17:29.980 The obvious ones. He started breeding them to 00:17:29.980 --> 00:17:32.160 beef instead of dairy. Simple as that. And the 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:34.740 result? The source says he banked an extra $68 00:17:34.740 --> 00:17:38.000 ,000 in revenue last year. Just from those beef 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:42.339 cross calves. 68 grand. Wow. Meanwhile, his neighbor. 00:17:42.809 --> 00:17:45.190 His neighbor, apparently similar size farm, similar 00:17:45.190 --> 00:17:48.730 setup, is still developing a comprehensive strategy 00:17:48.730 --> 00:17:51.369 with some consultant based out of Madison. So 00:17:51.369 --> 00:17:54.829 neighbor A has an extra $68 ,000 cash. Neighbor 00:17:54.829 --> 00:17:57.670 B has a binder and is still waiting to start. 00:17:57.869 --> 00:18:00.769 Neighbor B is stuck firmly in that implementation 00:18:00.769 --> 00:18:03.509 intention gap, losing tens of thousands in the 00:18:03.509 --> 00:18:05.670 process. And this is why the perspective from 00:18:05.670 --> 00:18:07.849 agricultural lenders is so telling, isn't it? 00:18:07.930 --> 00:18:10.430 Absolutely. Bankers look at one thing above all 00:18:10.430 --> 00:18:13.410 else, cash flow. Can the farm pay its bills and 00:18:13.410 --> 00:18:16.210 service its debt? When they see a farm struggling, 00:18:16.369 --> 00:18:18.990 maybe trying to refinance, they see this beef 00:18:18.990 --> 00:18:21.910 on dairy thing as the simplest fix imaginable. 00:18:21.970 --> 00:18:24.869 See, wait, you can add $60 ,000 in revenue from 00:18:24.869 --> 00:18:27.710 50 calves with zero capital investment. Exactly. 00:18:27.809 --> 00:18:30.289 That's a huge immediate boost to solvency. It 00:18:30.289 --> 00:18:32.390 makes their loan look a whole lot safer instantly. 00:18:32.650 --> 00:18:34.690 And that behavioral economics research backs 00:18:34.690 --> 00:18:36.950 this up too. The source had that off -the -record 00:18:36.950 --> 00:18:39.380 quote from a lender. Yeah, basically saying they 00:18:39.380 --> 00:18:41.640 see more farmers actually start using beef on 00:18:41.640 --> 00:18:43.599 dairy when they're desperate, when they're really 00:18:43.599 --> 00:18:46.279 struggling and need the cash now, more than they 00:18:46.279 --> 00:18:49.279 see adoption from farmers who are comfortable 00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:52.099 in just attending educational workshops about 00:18:52.099 --> 00:18:55.539 it. Crisis clarifies priorities. It forces action. 00:18:55.839 --> 00:18:58.440 When you're grounding, you grab the life preserver 00:18:58.440 --> 00:19:01.059 that's thrown to you. You don't ask about swimming 00:19:01.059 --> 00:19:04.579 lesson schedules. The science confirms it. Interventions 00:19:04.579 --> 00:19:07.579 driven by immediate need have much higher follow 00:19:07.579 --> 00:19:10.660 through rates than those based on purely educational, 00:19:10.779 --> 00:19:13.359 nice to have optimization when things are OK. 00:19:13.519 --> 00:19:16.019 And this connects right into the whole farmer 00:19:16.019 --> 00:19:19.480 stress issue and frankly, the failure of how 00:19:19.480 --> 00:19:22.220 a lot of this advice is delivered. We know from 00:19:22.220 --> 00:19:24.640 research like those Canadian parliamentary hearings 00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:28.099 in 2023, when farmers are in deep financial trouble, 00:19:28.200 --> 00:19:30.109 they tend to withdraw. Right. They stop going 00:19:30.109 --> 00:19:32.089 to the auctions, stop attending co -op meetings 00:19:32.089 --> 00:19:34.210 or extension workshops. They're home, stressed, 00:19:34.630 --> 00:19:36.450 trying to keep things running, maybe milking 00:19:36.450 --> 00:19:38.289 in the dark to save a few bucks on electricity. 00:19:38.849 --> 00:19:41.210 But where are these comprehensive strategy workshops 00:19:41.210 --> 00:19:44.750 usually held? Tuesday morning, 10 a .m. at the 00:19:44.750 --> 00:19:47.150 Holiday Inn Conference Center downtown. Right 00:19:47.150 --> 00:19:49.710 smack in the middle of morning, milking and chores 00:19:49.710 --> 00:19:53.000 for most farms. The whole delivery system often 00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:55.380 feels designed for the farmers who are comfortable 00:19:55.380 --> 00:19:58.059 enough to take half a day off, not for the ones 00:19:58.059 --> 00:19:59.779 who are struggling the most and need practical 00:19:59.779 --> 00:20:02.559 help now. And this goes back to how success is 00:20:02.559 --> 00:20:04.920 measured internally for some of these advisory 00:20:04.920 --> 00:20:07.279 services. Yeah, the Journal of Extension piece 00:20:07.279 --> 00:20:11.000 from April 2024 hit this hard. Extension folks 00:20:11.000 --> 00:20:13.319 are often evaluated based on workshop attendance 00:20:13.319 --> 00:20:16.140 numbers and how much participants like the coffee 00:20:16.140 --> 00:20:18.990 and donuts the satisfaction scores. They're not 00:20:18.990 --> 00:20:20.930 evaluated on whether the farmers who attended 00:20:20.930 --> 00:20:24.349 actually implemented anything useful. Or, crucially, 00:20:24.509 --> 00:20:26.289 whether they actually made any more money because 00:20:26.289 --> 00:20:28.529 of it. So the incentive is to run a popular, 00:20:28.730 --> 00:20:31.670 well -attended workshop, not necessarily to deliver 00:20:31.670 --> 00:20:35.369 advice that saves a farm $60 ,000. It's a structural 00:20:35.369 --> 00:20:38.410 misalignment. Internal metrics over real -world 00:20:38.410 --> 00:20:41.289 farmer outcomes. OK, we need to pivot now because 00:20:41.289 --> 00:20:43.809 it's not just about the farm's internal economics. 00:20:44.089 --> 00:20:46.509 There's this huge external pressure building. 00:20:46.910 --> 00:20:49.470 The market itself is changing fast. We're seeing 00:20:49.470 --> 00:20:52.710 reports from major analysts, Rabobank, CoBank, 00:20:52.829 --> 00:20:55.309 just in the last month or so, all talking about 00:20:55.309 --> 00:20:58.750 accelerating processor consolidation in the beef 00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:01.089 dairy supply chain. Yeah, this isn't just talk 00:21:01.089 --> 00:21:03.490 anymore. It's happening. The big packers, Tyson, 00:21:03.730 --> 00:21:07.910 JBS, Cargill. They're making strategic moves. 00:21:08.069 --> 00:21:10.549 They need predictable supply. They need consistent 00:21:10.549 --> 00:21:13.569 quality. And they need massive volume. And dealing 00:21:13.569 --> 00:21:16.410 with hundreds of small farms bringing in a handful 00:21:16.410 --> 00:21:18.869 of calves sporadically just doesn't work for 00:21:18.869 --> 00:21:21.009 their model, does it? Not at all. It's inefficient. 00:21:21.269 --> 00:21:23.809 It's logistically messy. They can't build a reliable 00:21:23.809 --> 00:21:26.609 supply chain on, as one source put it, guys bringing 00:21:26.609 --> 00:21:28.769 five cows one week, none the next. What are they 00:21:28.769 --> 00:21:30.940 doing instead? They're moving towards locking 00:21:30.940 --> 00:21:33.539 up supply through exclusive multi -year contracts. 00:21:33.779 --> 00:21:35.900 They're going to larger operations or groups 00:21:35.900 --> 00:21:38.039 of operations that can guarantee consistent volume, 00:21:38.259 --> 00:21:41.220 often with specific beef genetics. And they're 00:21:41.220 --> 00:21:43.160 offering premium prices for that reliability. 00:21:43.519 --> 00:21:45.740 They're basically cornering the market for high 00:21:45.740 --> 00:21:48.980 -quality, consistent beef on dairy calves. That's 00:21:48.980 --> 00:21:51.299 exactly what it looks like. And this leads to 00:21:51.299 --> 00:21:53.299 the critical deadline prediction the source mentioned. 00:21:53.460 --> 00:21:55.319 This should be a wake -up call. What was the 00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:59.119 prediction? By the end of 2026, so... Just over 00:21:59.119 --> 00:22:01.700 two years from now, the prediction is that 70 00:22:01.700 --> 00:22:04.960 % of the desirable beef dairy supply will be 00:22:04.960 --> 00:22:09.019 locked up under these exclusive contracts. 70%. 00:22:09.019 --> 00:22:11.779 Wow. Okay, so what does that mean for the average 00:22:11.779 --> 00:22:14.319 farmer, especially the small or mid -sized ones 00:22:14.319 --> 00:22:17.200 who are still developing their comprehensive 00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:19.819 strategy? It means they could be in real trouble. 00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:23.039 by the time their perfect plan is finally ready 00:22:23.039 --> 00:22:26.740 to implement in late 2026 or 2027. The door to 00:22:26.740 --> 00:22:28.920 those premium contracts might already be shut, 00:22:29.059 --> 00:22:31.680 bolted even. Exactly. They'll be left selling 00:22:31.680 --> 00:22:33.819 their calves on the open, volatile spot market. 00:22:34.170 --> 00:22:35.930 Competing with everyone else who missed the boat, 00:22:36.069 --> 00:22:38.869 likely fighting for lower prices. Back to potentially 00:22:38.869 --> 00:22:41.970 getting not much more than those $200 Holstein 00:22:41.970 --> 00:22:44.170 bull prices if the spot market gets saturated. 00:22:44.430 --> 00:22:46.869 It's a real risk. The processors are already 00:22:46.869 --> 00:22:49.150 signaling this. They're turning away smaller, 00:22:49.289 --> 00:22:52.509 inconsistent suppliers now. They need that reliable 00:22:52.509 --> 00:22:55.109 weekly volume, maybe 20 calves a week minimum 00:22:55.109 --> 00:22:57.470 from a source to make the logistics work. So 00:22:57.470 --> 00:22:59.789 contrast the farmer who starts now, even small, 00:22:59.970 --> 00:23:02.559 builds volume. proves consistency over the next 00:23:02.559 --> 00:23:05.759 18, 24 months. That farmer is positioning themselves 00:23:05.759 --> 00:23:09.339 to potentially grab one of those contracts, secure 00:23:09.339 --> 00:23:11.579 that premium for the next few years. Versus the 00:23:11.579 --> 00:23:14.119 farmer still sitting in planning meetings in 00:23:14.119 --> 00:23:16.660 mid -2025. By the time they have calves ready 00:23:16.660 --> 00:23:18.339 in volume, the game might have fundamentally 00:23:18.339 --> 00:23:21.140 changed. The premium market could be fully allocated. 00:23:21.440 --> 00:23:23.839 So the urgency isn't just about capturing the 00:23:23.839 --> 00:23:26.700 $1 ,200 price today. It's about securing market 00:23:26.700 --> 00:23:29.670 access for the future. It's about ensuring you're 00:23:29.670 --> 00:23:32.410 not left on the outside looking in when 70 % 00:23:32.410 --> 00:23:35.130 of the market consolidates. It's about long -term 00:23:35.130 --> 00:23:37.769 viability. Acting now is essentially buying insurance 00:23:37.769 --> 00:23:40.130 against being relegated to the spot market scrap 00:23:40.130 --> 00:23:42.910 heap in 2027. That's a good way to put it. The 00:23:42.910 --> 00:23:45.250 market waits for no one, especially not for a 00:23:45.250 --> 00:23:47.569 six -month planning cycle. All right, let's circle 00:23:47.569 --> 00:23:50.250 back to the advice itself. We need to be really 00:23:50.250 --> 00:23:52.710 critical of some of the things consultants push, 00:23:52.890 --> 00:23:54.789 especially when they're charging that $7 ,000 00:23:54.789 --> 00:23:57.950 fee. What are the big red flags farmers should 00:23:57.950 --> 00:24:00.410 watch out for? Red flag number one, definitely. 00:24:01.569 --> 00:24:04.730 Insisting on comprehensive genomic testing before 00:24:04.730 --> 00:24:07.690 you breed a single cull cow to beef. We touched 00:24:07.690 --> 00:24:09.769 on this, but it bears repeating. For identifying 00:24:09.769 --> 00:24:12.549 cows that clearly shouldn't be making replacements. 00:24:12.549 --> 00:24:15.289 It's overkill. It's financially wasteful. Yeah. 00:24:15.410 --> 00:24:17.630 Yes, genomics are great for selecting your elite 00:24:17.630 --> 00:24:20.240 replacement heifers. but for the obvious calls. 00:24:20.440 --> 00:24:22.680 That three -teeter, the chronic mastitis cow 00:24:22.680 --> 00:24:25.660 that cost you $2 ,000 in vet bills last lactation, 00:24:25.779 --> 00:24:28.140 the one that's been open 200 days. Do you really 00:24:28.140 --> 00:24:31.339 need a $40 DNA test plus fees to tell you she's 00:24:31.339 --> 00:24:33.720 not prime replacement material? Come on. It's 00:24:33.720 --> 00:24:36.519 using an expensive tool for a job your own records 00:24:36.519 --> 00:24:39.299 and eyes can do for free. If you can't spot your 00:24:39.299 --> 00:24:41.319 worst cows... You've got bigger management issues 00:24:41.319 --> 00:24:44.299 than genetics, absolutely. So that insistence 00:24:44.299 --> 00:24:46.640 on universal testing up front, big red flag. 00:24:46.839 --> 00:24:49.210 Okay, red flag number two. Pushing expensive 00:24:49.210 --> 00:24:51.829 equipment before you even have the calves on 00:24:51.829 --> 00:24:54.410 the ground to justify it. The source mentioned 00:24:54.410 --> 00:24:57.809 a consultant heavily pushing a $12 ,000 remote 00:24:57.809 --> 00:25:00.950 calf monitoring system before the farmer had 00:25:00.950 --> 00:25:04.049 even bred the first cow for a beef calf. $12 00:25:04.049 --> 00:25:06.809 ,000. Based on what? Theoretical mortality risk. 00:25:07.069 --> 00:25:09.490 Exactly. But what does the actual research say 00:25:09.490 --> 00:25:12.740 about preventing... calf mortality. Multiple 00:25:12.740 --> 00:25:16.000 universities agree. It's colostrum. Good colostrum 00:25:16.000 --> 00:25:18.160 management. Four quarts within the first couple 00:25:18.160 --> 00:25:21.480 of hours. Bingo. And that's an observation. Manual 00:25:21.480 --> 00:25:24.940 checks. What does that cost? A $30 Bricks refractometer 00:25:24.940 --> 00:25:27.559 to check colostrum quality and paying attention, 00:25:27.720 --> 00:25:29.859 maybe some extra labor time. Right. Not a $12 00:25:29.859 --> 00:25:32.099 ,000 capital investment that costs the equivalent 00:25:32.099 --> 00:25:34.480 of a year's worth of betting. That smells like 00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:37.240 pushing high margin tech sales, not solving a 00:25:37.240 --> 00:25:39.900 real problem efficiently. So unnecessary testing, 00:25:40.140 --> 00:25:42.240 premature equipment pushing. What's red flag 00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:44.559 number three? Relying heavily on national averages 00:25:44.559 --> 00:25:46.740 or data from completely different types of farms. 00:25:46.920 --> 00:25:49.380 If the consultant's presentation is full of ROI 00:25:49.380 --> 00:25:51.799 projections from a massive 10 ,000 cow confinement 00:25:51.799 --> 00:25:55.559 operation in Texas. And you're milking 150 cows 00:25:55.559 --> 00:25:58.079 in a tie stall in Wisconsin dealing with snow 00:25:58.079 --> 00:26:02.240 and $280 drought hay. That Texas data is virtually 00:26:02.240 --> 00:26:04.440 meaningless to you. Your costs are different. 00:26:04.539 --> 00:26:06.480 Your climate is different. Your local buyers 00:26:06.480 --> 00:26:08.579 and market dynamics are different. You need to 00:26:08.579 --> 00:26:10.900 know what your neighbor, Tom, down the road, 00:26:10.980 --> 00:26:13.200 is getting for his calves. Who's buying them? 00:26:13.339 --> 00:26:16.559 What are local feed costs? Exactly. Generic national 00:26:16.559 --> 00:26:18.779 averages are easy for consultants to pull up. 00:26:18.839 --> 00:26:20.920 They look official. But they're often useless 00:26:20.920 --> 00:26:23.640 for making decisions on your specific farm. It's 00:26:23.640 --> 00:26:26.799 lazy analysis disguised as expertise. And this 00:26:26.799 --> 00:26:28.500 all ties back to the bigger structural problem, 00:26:28.579 --> 00:26:30.299 doesn't it? The university funding angle. Oh, 00:26:30.299 --> 00:26:33.069 yeah. This is where the whole system really incentivizes 00:26:33.069 --> 00:26:35.730 complexity over simple solutions. You see land 00:26:35.730 --> 00:26:38.970 -grant universities asking for huge sums. The 00:26:38.970 --> 00:26:41.829 example was $16 million for new research barns 00:26:41.829 --> 00:26:44.450 in Wisconsin, partly to study the implementation 00:26:44.450 --> 00:26:47.210 challenges of beef on dairy. Studying the challenges 00:26:47.210 --> 00:26:50.369 of implementing a solution that costs $25 per 00:26:50.369 --> 00:26:53.329 straw. $16 million. Think about that. If you 00:26:53.329 --> 00:26:55.769 just gave that $16 million directly to Wisconsin 00:26:55.769 --> 00:26:59.009 dairy farmers as a $5 per straw rebate for beef 00:26:59.009 --> 00:27:01.279 semen? You could probably pay for the conversion 00:27:01.279 --> 00:27:04.359 of almost every single Holstein bull calf born 00:27:04.359 --> 00:27:06.740 in the state to a beef cross for the next decade. 00:27:06.900 --> 00:27:09.200 Exactly. Every single one. But that doesn't build 00:27:09.200 --> 00:27:11.740 fancy research facilities. It doesn't fund large 00:27:11.740 --> 00:27:14.140 graduate student programs. It doesn't get professors 00:27:14.140 --> 00:27:17.140 tenure. So instead, we fund multi -million dollar 00:27:17.140 --> 00:27:19.640 research projects to study the complexities of 00:27:19.640 --> 00:27:22.079 a $25 fix. It becomes a self -serving cycle. 00:27:33.250 --> 00:27:39.259 Okay, wow. We've covered a ton of ground from 00:27:39.259 --> 00:27:42.079 that $11 ,000 monthly hemorrhage on just 10 cows 00:27:42.079 --> 00:27:44.759 to the consultant traps to that looming 2026 00:27:44.759 --> 00:27:47.960 contract cliff. Let's distill it down. Farmer 00:27:47.960 --> 00:27:49.819 just finished milking, grabbing coffee, maybe 00:27:49.819 --> 00:27:52.259 driving to the feed store. What are the absolute 00:27:52.259 --> 00:27:54.680 must -know takeaways, the actionable stuff from 00:27:54.680 --> 00:27:56.299 this deep dive? Right, we need to cut through 00:27:56.299 --> 00:27:58.839 the noise. It boils down to prioritizing immediate 00:27:58.839 --> 00:28:01.480 practical action over waiting for some mythical 00:28:01.480 --> 00:28:03.480 perfect plan. The plan needs to start today, 00:28:03.599 --> 00:28:06.460 even if it's small and messy. So, insight number 00:28:06.460 --> 00:28:09.059 one. What's the first step this week, maybe even 00:28:09.059 --> 00:28:11.720 today? Insight one, immediate action. This week, 00:28:11.779 --> 00:28:14.880 today, the action. Call your AI tech right now. 00:28:15.059 --> 00:28:17.119 Tell them on their next visit, bring some decent 00:28:17.119 --> 00:28:20.000 general purpose beef semen, hangus cross, semangus, 00:28:20.059 --> 00:28:22.079 whatever's readily available and reasonably priced. 00:28:22.259 --> 00:28:24.960 The goal. Breed your five or six worst cows. 00:28:25.180 --> 00:28:27.519 The most obvious coals you already know you don't 00:28:27.519 --> 00:28:30.140 want replacements from. The three teeter, the 00:28:30.140 --> 00:28:32.500 chronic high SCC, the one that won't breed back. 00:28:32.680 --> 00:28:36.059 Cost, maybe $150 total for the semen. That's 00:28:36.059 --> 00:28:38.839 it. No genomics. No consultant fee. This $150 00:28:38.839 --> 00:28:41.339 investment starts the validation process on your 00:28:41.339 --> 00:28:43.440 farm. Start small. Prove the concept yourself, 00:28:43.579 --> 00:28:45.960 but start now. Don't wait for a $7 ,000 permission 00:28:45.960 --> 00:28:49.000 slip. Okay, what's next? Insight two. Medium 00:28:49.000 --> 00:28:51.839 -term strategy. Next three to six months. Scale 00:28:51.839 --> 00:28:53.460 based on what actually works, not a projection. 00:28:54.039 --> 00:28:56.180 After that first preg check, usually three weeks 00:28:56.180 --> 00:28:58.859 later, see how those first few cows did. If four 00:28:58.859 --> 00:29:01.519 or five out of six settled, great. Concept proven. 00:29:01.880 --> 00:29:04.440 Action. Scale up immediately. Breed the next 00:29:04.440 --> 00:29:07.180 15 likely culls. If conception rates stay decent, 00:29:07.299 --> 00:29:10.220 keep going. Aim to get 30, 40, maybe 50 head 00:29:10.220 --> 00:29:12.079 bred to beef over the next few months. Goal. 00:29:12.079 --> 00:29:14.539 Start generating consistent supply. Get that 00:29:14.539 --> 00:29:17.119 first cycle of potential $1 ,400 calves coming 00:29:17.119 --> 00:29:19.200 through. And if you invest anywhere, invest in 00:29:19.200 --> 00:29:21.160 simple management tools that pay off like that 00:29:21.160 --> 00:29:24.220 $30 Bricks refractometer for colostrum, not $12 00:29:24.220 --> 00:29:26.730 ,000 sensor systems yet. Let the early success 00:29:26.730 --> 00:29:28.769 pay for the small improvements. Don't go into 00:29:28.769 --> 00:29:30.829 debt for fancy tech before you know it works 00:29:30.829 --> 00:29:33.289 for you. Makes sense. And long -term. Insight 00:29:33.289 --> 00:29:35.890 three. Long -term positioning. Next one, two 00:29:35.890 --> 00:29:38.589 years. The key action here is speed of implementation 00:29:38.589 --> 00:29:42.190 over perfection. Keep the momentum going. Consistently 00:29:42.190 --> 00:29:44.430 breed your lower -end cows to beef. Build that 00:29:44.430 --> 00:29:47.329 volume. Goal. Position your farm to be a potential 00:29:47.329 --> 00:29:49.700 supplier for those premium contracts. Demonstrate 00:29:49.700 --> 00:29:51.279 you can deliver consistent numbers of quality 00:29:51.279 --> 00:29:53.599 beef cross calves month after month before that 00:29:53.599 --> 00:29:56.039 70 % consolidation deadline hits hard at the 00:29:56.039 --> 00:29:59.420 end of 2026. This is your insurance policy. It's 00:29:59.420 --> 00:30:00.940 about making sure you have a reliable premium 00:30:00.940 --> 00:30:02.960 market when the spot market potentially gets 00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:05.839 ugly. Avoid that scrap heap. Hashtag, hashtag, 00:30:05.839 --> 00:30:08.599 enhanced show outro. So that's our deep dive 00:30:08.599 --> 00:30:11.180 for today. If this kind of... practical, no -nonsense 00:30:11.180 --> 00:30:13.059 analysis helps your operation make better decisions, 00:30:13.279 --> 00:30:16.420 definitely head over to www .thebullvine .com. 00:30:16.599 --> 00:30:18.519 We've got more articles digging into what's really 00:30:18.519 --> 00:30:20.339 happening in the dairy world. And seriously, 00:30:20.720 --> 00:30:22.880 hit subscribe wherever you get your podcasts 00:30:22.880 --> 00:30:25.299 or deep dives. We're putting these out twice 00:30:25.299 --> 00:30:27.519 a week now, bringing you analysis on the topics 00:30:27.519 --> 00:30:30.059 that matter. And trust me, you do not want to 00:30:30.059 --> 00:30:32.500 miss next week. We're digging into the true, 00:30:32.599 --> 00:30:35.420 often -hitting costs of conventional feed programs 00:30:35.420 --> 00:30:37.640 and talking about one company that's trying to 00:30:37.640 --> 00:30:39.990 completely flip the script on how we think about 00:30:39.990 --> 00:30:41.490 feeding cows. It's going to be eye -opening. 00:30:41.970 --> 00:30:44.250 But for today, the final thought is this. You 00:30:44.250 --> 00:30:46.650 can potentially get $1 ,400 per calf instead 00:30:46.650 --> 00:30:49.369 of $200 just by changing the semen you use on 00:30:49.369 --> 00:30:52.210 your culled cows. $5 difference per straw. Tell 00:30:52.210 --> 00:30:54.650 us again why this needs a $7 ,000 plan. All right, 00:30:54.750 --> 00:30:57.289 here's your bottom line. Every Holstein bull 00:30:57.289 --> 00:31:00.269 calf you're selling for $200 could be a $1 ,400 00:31:00.269 --> 00:31:04.250 beef cross. The only difference? $25 worth of 00:31:04.250 --> 00:31:07.910 semen. Stop planning. Start breeding. Your action 00:31:07.910 --> 00:31:11.740 plan is simple. Call your AI tech today. Pick 00:31:11.740 --> 00:31:15.900 your six worst cows. Invest $150 in beef semen. 00:31:16.119 --> 00:31:19.539 In seven months, you'll bank $8 ,400 instead 00:31:19.539 --> 00:31:23.140 of $1 ,200. No consultants. No genomic testing. 00:31:23.339 --> 00:31:26.619 No $7 ,000 planning process. While you're sitting 00:31:26.619 --> 00:31:28.859 through another workshop on optimization matrices, 00:31:29.240 --> 00:31:32.019 your neighbor's already banking $1 ,400 per calf. 00:31:32.240 --> 00:31:35.279 Every month. For the full article with the complete 00:31:35.279 --> 00:31:38.559 action plan, visit thebullvine .com. That's T 00:31:38.559 --> 00:31:42.759 -H -E -B -U -L -L -V -I -N -E dot com. And remember, 00:31:42.920 --> 00:31:46.180 in dairy, like in life, those who act while others 00:31:46.180 --> 00:31:49.140 plan are the ones who profit. This has been the 00:31:49.140 --> 00:31:51.640 Bullvine Podcast. We'll see you next time with 00:31:51.640 --> 00:31:54.559 more contrarian insights and actionable intelligence 00:31:54.559 --> 00:31:57.940 the mainstream ag media won't deliver. Until 00:31:57.940 --> 00:32:08.500 then, stop planning, start profiting. Thank you.