WEBVTT

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Breaking free from the chains of the past Where

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truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law

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waiting on some printed page We're charting new

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ground in the digital age From genomic codes

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to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold

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them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight

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we're sparking Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast,

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where we deliver the insights that actually matter

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to your dairy operation. I'm your host, and today

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we're diving into a technology that could fundamentally

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change how we evaluate dairy cattle. Holstein

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Association USA is developing automated classification

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cameras that promise to eliminate classifier

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visits entirely. But here's the catch. This revolutionary

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technology might only work for 40 % of dairy

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farms. The rest? They're potentially priced out.

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In today's Deep Dive, we're breaking down the

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real economics, why 500 cow operations could

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see $49 ,000 in annual returns, while smaller

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dairies face an impossible math problem. We'll

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explore what this means for traditional classification,

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who benefits, who gets left behind, and most

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importantly, what you need to know to make the

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right decision for your operation. Let's get

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into it. Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today,

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we're looking at something pretty big, shaking

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up the Dairy World Holstein Association USA's

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automated classification cameras. Honestly, it

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feels like a total rethink. It really does. And

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the conversation isn't really, can they make

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this tech work anymore, is it? It feels like

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it's shifted completely to, well, when is this

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going to change everything? That's absolutely

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the core of it now. We're kind of past the proof

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of concept stage, you know. Now it's all about

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the spreadsheets, the dollars and cents. Right.

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Our mission today really is to dive deep into

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the economic feasibility of this whole Build

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a Better Cow project. We need to look at the

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projected ROI, how that changes with herd size,

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and maybe more importantly, the real world stuff,

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the practical infrastructure problems you actually

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hit on the farm. Yeah, the hurdles. And what

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really grabs me is how... how much this system

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aims to do. It's not just like those body condition

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scoring cameras we've seen, the BCS ones that

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basically just measure fat. No, it's way beyond

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that. Holstein's going for the full package,

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right? Comprehensive trait evaluation, what they

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call linear scoring. Exactly. Linear scoring.

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For anyone not familiar, that's not just a simple

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checkbox. It's getting into the nitty gritty

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details, measuring things like utter attachment,

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foot angle, dairy strength. Scoring them precisely,

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usually on like a one to nine scale. Which takes

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a trained human eye right now. It's a highly

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trained human classifier. Yeah. But this tech,

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it aims to do that automatically, continuously.

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And the timeline people are talking about, maybe

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a launch around 2027, 2028, somewhere in there.

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And the power here, it seems, isn't just about

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getting an accurate score. It's about where that

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data goes. Absolutely. You know, Dr. Jeffrey

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Buehling, his team. They're not just building

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a fancy camera. It's more like a data pipeline.

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This system is designed from the ground up to

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feed those scores directly into the genetic evaluation

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system through the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding.

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So what that means for producers is you get this

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steady stream of objective data flowing right

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into your breeding decisions. It could seriously

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speed up genetic progress. Okay, well, the proof

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is always in the pudding, or maybe the paycheck

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here. For this to really take off, the economics

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have got to work. So let's start there. What's

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the research saying about the potential annual

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return per cow? Let's take that sort of ideal

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starting point, the 500 cow dairy, maybe one

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really focused on genetics. Right. So the projections,

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when you combine that automated scoring with

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the really detailed evaluation, they point to

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a potential benefit somewhere between $66 and

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$98 per cow per year, which is pretty compelling.

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Okay, $66 to $98. Per cow. And where does that

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value actually come from? Can you break that

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down? Sure. It basically comes from four key

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areas. The biggest piece seems to be better feed

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efficiency. We're talking maybe $25 to $35 per

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cow saved annually just by being able to fine

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-tune feeding based on really precise ongoing

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evaluations. Makes sense. What else? Second,

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you obviously save on the traditional classification

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cost. That's maybe $6 to $8 per cow. Third is

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expected improvements in cow health and longevity

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that could add another $20 to $30. And finally,

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making more accurate genetic selections adds,

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say, $15 to $25 per cow. So if you add all that

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up for that 500 cow example, you're looking at

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an extra, what, $33 ,000 to almost $50 ,000 a

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year in value. Roughly, yeah. In that ballpark,

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$33 ,000 to $49 ,000 a year. Okay. And if the

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system itself costs, let's estimate maybe $150

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,000, that seems plausible based on other precision

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ag tech. That's a reasonable working number,

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yes. And your payback period is looking like

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three to five years. That's, well, that's pretty

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attractive for a larger operation. Very attractive.

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It makes a strong case financially. But, and

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this is a big but. So most dairy farms in the

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U .S. aren't 500 cows, right? So how does this

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picture change when you look at, say, a 200 -cow

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dairy? That's a much more common size. If the

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per -cow benefit is the same, the total must

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look very different. It looks very different.

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And unfortunately, those benefits, they just

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scale down directly. So for that 200 -cow herd,

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the annual benefit drops to about $13 ,200 on

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the low end, maybe up to $19 ,600. Okay. Now

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you take that same $150 ,000 upfront cost. And

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suddenly the payback isn't three, five years.

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It stretches out. You're looking at seven point

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five years. Best case scenario, maybe even out

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to 11 years. Oof. Seven and a half to 11 years.

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That's that's a much tougher sell, especially

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when you think about how fast technology changes.

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An 11 year payback is risky. It's incredibly

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difficult to justify. And that leads us right

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into the next major issue. It's not just about

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the purchase price. It's about what you need

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on the farm to even make it work. The infrastructure,

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what I sometimes call the dirt and wires problem.

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Right. The practical stuff. Yeah. The success

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here really depends on having the right setup.

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This kind of 3D imaging. It creates massive amounts

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of data. We're talking huge files constantly.

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So you absolutely need serious. enterprise -level

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internet bandwidth. Which, let's be honest, a

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lot of rural dairies just don't have. You're

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lucky if you can stream a movie sometimes. Exactly.

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And you need reliable power, probably with backup

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systems. Plus, the camera system has to talk

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smoothly to whatever herd management software

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the farm is already using, without all that digital

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groundwork in place. The system isn't really

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a tool, it's just an expensive bottleneck, creating

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data you can't even use effectively. OK, let

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me push back a bit here, though. I mean, you

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can hire a really top notch human classifier,

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someone with years of experience for a few days

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a year. Can a camera, even a fancy 3D one, truly

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replicate that level of judgment? That experienced

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eye. That's a really fair point. And look, the

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argument for the tech isn't necessarily that

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it's better than the absolute best classifier

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having a perfect day. The value proposition is

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more about consistency and objectivity. The camera

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doesn't get tired. It doesn't have an off day.

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It gives you objective measurements 24 -7. But

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you're absolutely right. To get that consistency,

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you need operational stability. And that's where

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the farm environment itself starts to cause problems.

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Real friction. Tell me about that friction. You

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mentioned climate differences being an issue.

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Yeah, we see basically two opposite problems

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depending on where you are. Take cold climates,

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think Wisconsin, upstate New York, places like

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that. The big issue is lens condensation. During

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morning milking, especially in winter, you get

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warm, humid air from the cows and the parlor

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hitting cold camera equipment. Moisture fogs

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up the lenses. We've heard from producers who

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literally have to spend time every single morning

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wiping down those lenses just to get a usable

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image. Such a classic farm reality check, isn't

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it? Yeah. The lab prototype works perfectly,

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but then you realize someone needs to add white

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camera lens to their morning chores list. That

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eats into any efficiency gain right there. It

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absolutely does. And then you go to the other

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extreme hot climates, Texas, Arizona, Southern

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California, places where it gets seriously hot.

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Right. When the barn or parlor temperature climbs

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past, say, 105 degrees Fahrenheit, which happens,

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the sensitive electronics in these systems can

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overheat and shut down. We know of operations

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that had to install dedicated cooling systems,

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like little air conditioners, just for the camera

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hardware. That's a significant, often unplanned,

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extra cost. Adds thousands, maybe tens of thousands,

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to the real investment. And I guess places in

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the middle, like the Pacific Northwest or the

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Mid -Atlantic, they probably deal with a mix

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of humidity, rain, temperature swings, all creating

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their own headaches for sensitive gear. Exactly.

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It's rarely simple out in the barn. So, okay.

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If the economics are tough, even for a 200 -cow

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dairy, and you've got these significant infrastructure

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and environmental hurdles, what does this really

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mean for the majority of dairy farms in the U

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.S., the smaller ones? This brings us to what

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you call the 60 % problem. Yeah, the 60 % problem.

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If you look at USDA data, it's pretty clear.

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The vast majority of dairy farms in the U .S.,

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something like 60%, are milking fewer than 100

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cows. Right. The smaller family farms. Exactly.

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And based on the current costs we're talking

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about, this kind of automated classification

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technology, it's basically out of reach for them.

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The capital cost is too high. The payback period

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stretches out way too long, becomes completely

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unworkable. So you've got this potentially revolutionary

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genetic tool, but it's really only accessible

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to the largest, maybe 40 percent of the industry.

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That seems to be the reality right now. Yes.

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which creates a real issue if the goal is broad

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genetic improvement across the entire national

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herd. It does. But Holstein is a cooperative,

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right? That's different from a typical tech company

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that's maybe backed by venture capital and just

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chasing the highest return. Does that cooperative

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structure offer any potential ways to bridge

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this gap for smaller producers? That's the hope.

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Because they aren't solely driven by maximizing

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profit for external investors, there might be

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more flexibility. We have to start thinking about

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different ways to access the technology beyond

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just buying it outright. Alternative ownership

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models. Like what? Well, think about how other

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expensive technologies came into agriculture.

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Ultrasound for pregnancy checks, for instance.

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When that was new and expensive, individual farms

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didn't usually buy the machine. Right. The vet

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brought it out. It was a service. Exactly. Your

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vet owned it and you paid for the service when

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you needed it. You could see a similar model

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emerging here. Maybe the classification organizations

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themselves or even cooperatives own the camera

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systems and provide the scanning as a service.

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Or maybe shared equipment, like how some co -ops

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share specialized feed analysis tools. That makes

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a lot of sense. Treat it like a utility or a

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service you pay for periodically rather than

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a massive capital investment up front. Precisely.

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Another factor is just time. Technology costs

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tend to come down. We'll likely see the price

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of these systems decrease over the next decade.

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You might think about it entering the late majority

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adoption phase, meaning more affordable and widespread,

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maybe around 2032 to 2035. OK, so patients might

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help. Patients and also looking actively for

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support. Smaller operations really need to investigate

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cost sharing programs. There are often state

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or federal initiatives, grants, things like that,

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designed to help farms adopt new technologies.

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Sometimes they can cover 20, maybe 30 percent

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of the investment. That could definitely tip

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the scales, making a seven or 10 year payback

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feel a bit more manageable. It could be the key

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piece that makes it viable for some. And, you

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know, all this talk about automated cameras.

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It obviously changes the game for the traditional

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human classifiers, too. It sounds like their

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skills won't just vanish, though. More like.

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Evolve. Absolutely evolve. Their expertise doesn't

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become obsolete. It just shifts. Think about

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when DHIA testing went from guys walking around

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with whey jars to automated milk meters. The

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job changed. People stopped doing the repetitive

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data collection and moved into more analytical

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roles, advising on feed, management, using the

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data. It'll likely be similar for classifiers.

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Their future roles will probably focus more on

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system calibration, helping farms interpret the

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huge amounts of data, providing advanced consulting,

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and maybe still doing the hands -on evaluation

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for the really elite, high -value animals where

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subtle nuances still matter. So if we're wrapping

00:13:00.070 --> 00:13:02.110
this up for you, the listener, maybe you're thinking

00:13:02.110 --> 00:13:03.690
about this technology for your own operation.

00:13:03.990 --> 00:13:06.169
There are really two big things to keep top of

00:13:06.169 --> 00:13:08.830
mind from our discussion today. First, that ROI

00:13:08.830 --> 00:13:11.649
reality check. The numbers look good. A solid

00:13:11.649 --> 00:13:13.830
three to five year payback if you're running

00:13:13.830 --> 00:13:17.389
a large 500 plus cow dairy. But for midsize,

00:13:17.389 --> 00:13:20.690
say 200 cow operation, that payback stretches

00:13:20.690 --> 00:13:23.889
out significantly, seven to 11 years, making

00:13:23.889 --> 00:13:26.269
it a much tougher financial decision. And the

00:13:26.269 --> 00:13:29.519
second point. The infrastructure. It's absolutely

00:13:29.519 --> 00:13:32.779
critical and non -negotiable. Success hangs completely

00:13:32.779 --> 00:13:34.820
on your farm's technical setup. You need that

00:13:34.820 --> 00:13:37.559
robust, fast internet. You need reliable power,

00:13:37.700 --> 00:13:40.480
probably with backup. And you need a plan for

00:13:40.480 --> 00:13:42.519
dealing with your specific climate, whether that's

00:13:42.519 --> 00:13:45.019
wiping lenses in the cold or installing coolers

00:13:45.019 --> 00:13:47.019
in the heat. So before you even think about signing

00:13:47.019 --> 00:13:48.679
a purchase order, you need to figure out the

00:13:48.679 --> 00:13:50.259
total cost, right? Not just the camera price

00:13:50.259 --> 00:13:53.049
tag. Are you going to need... $10 ,000 in network

00:13:53.049 --> 00:13:56.330
upgrades or maybe $50 ,000 to add climate control

00:13:56.330 --> 00:13:58.830
in the parlor? You need to ask the vendor hard

00:13:58.830 --> 00:14:00.830
questions. How does the system really perform

00:14:00.830 --> 00:14:02.889
under my barn conditions, not just in a controlled

00:14:02.889 --> 00:14:04.950
research setting? What's the plan for technical

00:14:04.950 --> 00:14:07.590
support when things go wrong? Exactly. And, you

00:14:07.590 --> 00:14:09.789
know, thinking bigger picture, this all raises

00:14:09.789 --> 00:14:11.610
a really fundamental question for the industry,

00:14:11.730 --> 00:14:13.669
doesn't it? You have this powerful innovation,

00:14:13.950 --> 00:14:15.850
something that truly promises to accelerate genetic

00:14:15.850 --> 00:14:18.230
progress in dairy cattle like never before. Yeah.

00:14:18.309 --> 00:14:21.730
But. will its main effect be to speed up consolidation?

00:14:22.029 --> 00:14:25.070
Will it end up giving the largest 40 % of dairies,

00:14:25.070 --> 00:14:27.110
the ones that could afford it, such a strong

00:14:27.110 --> 00:14:30.309
competitive edge that the smaller 60 % just can't

00:14:30.309 --> 00:14:33.409
keep up? That feels like the core strategic challenge,

00:14:33.570 --> 00:14:35.509
the decision, really, that the dairy industry,

00:14:35.669 --> 00:14:37.730
especially with its cooperative roots, needs

00:14:37.730 --> 00:14:39.850
to grapple with as this technology rolls out.

00:14:40.029 --> 00:14:42.129
That's all for today's episode of the Bullvine

00:14:42.129 --> 00:14:45.590
Podcast. Remember, technology is a tool, not

00:14:45.590 --> 00:14:48.559
a solution. Success comes from matching the right

00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:51.759
tools to your specific operational needs and

00:14:51.759 --> 00:14:54.860
capabilities. If you found value in today's discussion,

00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.059
subscribe to The Bullvine Podcast wherever you

00:14:58.059 --> 00:15:01.179
get your podcasts and visit us at thebullvine

00:15:01.179 --> 00:15:04.519
.com for the full article, economic breakdowns,

00:15:04.519 --> 00:15:06.799
and those eight critical questions you should

00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:09.820
be asking any technology provider. We'll be back

00:15:09.820 --> 00:15:11.960
next week with more insights that cut through

00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.120
the industry noise and deliver the information

00:15:14.120 --> 00:15:16.840
you actually need to make profitable decisions.

00:15:17.440 --> 00:15:20.639
Until then, keep asking the tough questions.

00:15:20.779 --> 00:15:24.019
And remember, not every innovation is right for

00:15:24.019 --> 00:15:27.700
every operation. And that's perfectly okay. This

00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:30.460
is The Bullvine Podcast. Thanks for listening.
