WEBVTT 00:00:07.660 --> 00:00:10.419 Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast, where we 00:00:10.419 --> 00:00:12.419 cut through dairy industry noise to get you the 00:00:12.419 --> 00:00:14.519 insights that actually matter for your operation. 00:00:14.900 --> 00:00:17.640 And today, yeah, we're diving deep into a future 00:00:17.640 --> 00:00:19.199 piece that's definitely been generating some 00:00:19.199 --> 00:00:23.000 serious buzz. Came out of World Dairy Expo. And 00:00:23.000 --> 00:00:25.239 this one's got layers. I mean, some surprises 00:00:25.239 --> 00:00:27.600 here are gonna make you farmers really rethink 00:00:27.600 --> 00:00:30.079 how you've been approaching genetics, maybe cow 00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:32.259 longevity too. Okay, let's definitely unpack 00:00:32.259 --> 00:00:34.820 this. We're really focusing on what our source 00:00:34.820 --> 00:00:38.780 called a fundamental power structure flip. Something 00:00:38.780 --> 00:00:41.719 observed right there on September 29th at World 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:44.700 Dairy Expo. Yeah. And look, this isn't just about, 00:00:44.700 --> 00:00:47.960 you know, who got the fanciest ribbon. The key 00:00:47.960 --> 00:00:51.579 takeaway is stunningly clear. Juniors aren't 00:00:51.579 --> 00:00:54.039 just competing anymore. They're dominating the 00:00:54.039 --> 00:00:56.700 open shows. It's huge. They're not just the future 00:00:56.700 --> 00:00:59.159 of dairy. They're, well, they're the highly efficient, 00:00:59.420 --> 00:01:02.060 structurally sound president. And why this matters 00:01:02.060 --> 00:01:05.319 right now and for you listening is absolutely 00:01:05.319 --> 00:01:08.180 critical. We are, let's be honest, standing knee 00:01:08.180 --> 00:01:10.599 deep in a full -blown heifer replacement crisis. 00:01:10.859 --> 00:01:13.159 No question. Your ability, the ability of your 00:01:13.159 --> 00:01:15.060 operation, doesn't matter if you have 50 cows 00:01:15.060 --> 00:01:18.599 or 5 ,000, to select and manage cattle built 00:01:18.599 --> 00:01:21.489 to last. Cattle that actually reach their fourth 00:01:21.489 --> 00:01:23.670 maybe fifth lactation without falling apart. 00:01:23.670 --> 00:01:26.329 Yeah, that is the difference It's the difference 00:01:26.329 --> 00:01:29.629 between you know, genuine profit and just a mountain 00:01:29.629 --> 00:01:31.790 of debt. That's only getting steeper We're talking 00:01:31.790 --> 00:01:33.810 potentially hundred thousand dollar swings here 00:01:33.810 --> 00:01:36.590 in long -term efficiency. Exactly and the controversy 00:01:36.590 --> 00:01:38.829 tease you mentioned surprises. Well, here it 00:01:38.829 --> 00:01:42.609 is The judge himself Mark Ruath actually called 00:01:42.609 --> 00:01:46.180 the open show unsuspensible Think about that 00:01:46.180 --> 00:01:49.379 word, a professional judge watching the best 00:01:49.379 --> 00:01:52.640 breeders in the world. And he says, it's unsuspensible. 00:01:52.680 --> 00:01:55.579 Wow. Now this isn't like a slight on the professionals. 00:01:55.659 --> 00:01:58.359 It's just a stunning truth about the undeniable 00:01:58.359 --> 00:02:00.879 quality coming from the youth entries. We really 00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:03.359 need to unpack why that word unsuspensible is 00:02:03.359 --> 00:02:05.840 maybe the most damning critique imaginable. It 00:02:05.840 --> 00:02:08.060 really is. And we need to talk about why managing 00:02:08.060 --> 00:02:10.039 obsolescence is maybe the harsh phrase getting 00:02:10.039 --> 00:02:12.120 attached to farms that still refer to these winners 00:02:12.120 --> 00:02:17.169 as, you know, just kids. Yeah, that's a direct 00:02:17.169 --> 00:02:19.849 punch to the gut, isn't it? For the veteran breeders, 00:02:20.189 --> 00:02:21.650 the ones who feel like they've perfected the 00:02:21.650 --> 00:02:24.050 art over generations. Right. It basically suggests 00:02:24.050 --> 00:02:26.270 they're running on yesterday's diesel while the 00:02:26.270 --> 00:02:28.669 juniors are already driving electric. It's a 00:02:28.669 --> 00:02:32.509 different game. So let's jump straight into identifying 00:02:32.509 --> 00:02:36.530 this problem, this shift. First, maybe let's 00:02:36.530 --> 00:02:38.550 quickly define the playing field because the 00:02:38.550 --> 00:02:41.409 context is everything here, right? In a show 00:02:41.409 --> 00:02:43.610 like World Dairy Expo, you've got the junior 00:02:43.610 --> 00:02:46.030 show. That's where the exhibitor has to be under 00:02:46.030 --> 00:02:50.240 a certain age. Fine. But the open show. That's 00:02:50.240 --> 00:02:52.159 where the real prestige is. That's the big lease. 00:02:52.340 --> 00:02:55.020 That's where any farm any company any season 00:02:55.020 --> 00:02:58.120 pro Brings their absolute best doesn't matter 00:02:58.120 --> 00:02:59.960 who's on the end of the halter. That's the grand 00:02:59.960 --> 00:03:02.319 finale Yeah, that's where you put your reputation 00:03:02.319 --> 00:03:05.020 on the line. You're up against the multi -generational 00:03:05.020 --> 00:03:08.039 outfits the big corporate breeding programs Everyone 00:03:08.039 --> 00:03:10.919 and that's exactly where judge Ruith delivered 00:03:10.919 --> 00:03:15.439 his verdict The outcome was in his words a little 00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:18.219 unsuspenseful. The source notes the juniors didn't 00:03:18.219 --> 00:03:22.759 just compete. They quote crushed seasoned professionals 00:03:22.759 --> 00:03:26.840 who've been perfecting genetics for I mean generations. 00:03:26.939 --> 00:03:28.840 It wasn't even close. Wait, wait, hold on. I 00:03:28.840 --> 00:03:31.039 want to sit with that word unsuspenseful for 00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:33.479 just a second because that's not just some casual 00:03:33.479 --> 00:03:36.379 comment, right? No way. If the show is unsuspenseful, 00:03:36.740 --> 00:03:40.110 it implies that the absolute top quality animals, 00:03:40.189 --> 00:03:42.830 the ones that were clearly gonna win, they just 00:03:42.830 --> 00:03:45.009 stood out immediately. Right from the start. 00:03:45.129 --> 00:03:47.150 Yeah, you could see it. The judge could probably 00:03:47.150 --> 00:03:49.449 see, even in the preliminary lineup, that the 00:03:49.449 --> 00:03:52.050 junior's cattle just possessed this structural 00:03:52.050 --> 00:03:54.110 excellence that maybe some of the professional's 00:03:54.110 --> 00:03:57.490 entries lacked. Okay, but what specifically do 00:03:57.490 --> 00:03:59.610 you think he was seeing that lacked suspense? 00:03:59.750 --> 00:04:02.349 Was it just, you know, flash? Pretty cares? No, 00:04:02.490 --> 00:04:04.389 absolutely not. Just flash. Couldn't be. It had 00:04:04.389 --> 00:04:06.189 to be the functional traits. He was looking for 00:04:06.189 --> 00:04:09.490 the evidence of longevity. Things like, utter 00:04:09.490 --> 00:04:11.330 attachments that look like they can easily handle 00:04:11.330 --> 00:04:14.449 three, four more lactations. Built to last. Exactly. 00:04:14.990 --> 00:04:17.009 Mobility scores suggesting they'll move trouble 00:04:17.009 --> 00:04:20.769 -free on concrete for years. And crucially, that 00:04:20.769 --> 00:04:22.569 width and capacity we'll definitely talk more 00:04:22.569 --> 00:04:24.790 about later. Right. You know, in the past, the 00:04:24.790 --> 00:04:27.370 difference might have been subtle. A hair's breadth, 00:04:27.569 --> 00:04:29.490 maybe, in definition between the top animals. 00:04:29.670 --> 00:04:31.829 Nuances. Yeah, nuances. Yeah. Now, it sounds 00:04:31.829 --> 00:04:34.290 like the gulf in quality, particularly in those 00:04:34.290 --> 00:04:37.350 functional traits, is just visually apparent. 00:04:38.009 --> 00:04:40.069 The juniors brought a different type of cow. 00:04:40.629 --> 00:04:43.529 A cow really designed for the future, for profitability. 00:04:43.709 --> 00:04:45.990 And we have a specific, undeniable example of 00:04:45.990 --> 00:04:48.649 this shift right here. Donnybrook M .O. Stevie, 00:04:49.250 --> 00:04:51.689 owned by Brittany Taylor and Lila Schuler from 00:04:51.689 --> 00:04:54.279 New Glarus. Yep, remember that one. This cow 00:04:54.279 --> 00:04:56.759 didn't just win the junior show. She went on 00:04:56.759 --> 00:04:59.439 to take reserve grand champion in the open competition. 00:04:59.660 --> 00:05:02.259 That's huge. Reserve grand in the open. She beat 00:05:02.259 --> 00:05:05.160 professional operations. Operations with multi 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:07.699 -million dollar investments. Decades of experience 00:05:07.699 --> 00:05:10.779 baked in. That is a massive, visible transfer 00:05:10.779 --> 00:05:13.560 of power. Okay, but let's translate this. In 00:05:13.560 --> 00:05:15.740 plain English, for the former listening right 00:05:15.740 --> 00:05:19.839 now, how does a teenager's cow actually beat 00:05:19.839 --> 00:05:23.610 a professional's big operations best? It's not 00:05:23.610 --> 00:05:25.649 just luck like you said earlier. Definitely not 00:05:25.649 --> 00:05:27.149 luck. It's got to be a difference of where the 00:05:27.149 --> 00:05:29.509 skill is allocated, right? Yeah. For the smaller 00:05:29.509 --> 00:05:32.970 farms listening, the implication is clear. High 00:05:32.970 --> 00:05:35.910 -cost genetics alone aren't the sole deciding 00:05:35.910 --> 00:05:38.709 factor anymore because pretty much everyone can 00:05:38.709 --> 00:05:40.870 access the good semen now. Right. The access 00:05:40.870 --> 00:05:44.069 is there. So the youth, they're bringing superior 00:05:44.069 --> 00:05:46.550 management in the day -to -day care, sure, but 00:05:46.550 --> 00:05:49.069 maybe more importantly, superior selection skills. 00:05:49.670 --> 00:05:51.990 Skills really honed by understanding and using 00:05:51.990 --> 00:05:54.209 genomics. They're finding that diamond in the 00:05:54.209 --> 00:05:56.050 rough because they know what data markers to 00:05:56.050 --> 00:05:58.029 prioritize for long -term value. And for the 00:05:58.029 --> 00:06:00.370 really large operations, the takeaway might be 00:06:00.370 --> 00:06:02.769 even harsher, actually. It suggests their internal 00:06:02.769 --> 00:06:04.509 breeding programs, the ones they've relied on 00:06:04.509 --> 00:06:07.350 for years, might be fundamentally outdated. Ouch. 00:06:07.670 --> 00:06:10.439 They might be stuck in a pattern, you know. Prioritizing 00:06:10.439 --> 00:06:13.120 traits that win in the short term, maybe extreme 00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:15.759 component numbers or just sheer size, while kind 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:18.800 of neglecting the structural integrity you absolutely 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:21.399 need to stay profitable long term. They're chasing 00:06:21.399 --> 00:06:24.259 the immediate win, maybe the show ring win, over 00:06:24.259 --> 00:06:28.240 the solid economic five -year lifespan of that 00:06:28.240 --> 00:06:31.529 cow. Exactly. And you're right. If you're running 00:06:31.529 --> 00:06:35.069 a large operation and your multi -million dollar 00:06:35.069 --> 00:06:37.550 breeding program is getting beaten for the reserve 00:06:37.550 --> 00:06:40.810 grand slot by two young women from New Glarus, 00:06:41.209 --> 00:06:42.839 well... You have to look hard in the mirror. 00:06:42.899 --> 00:06:45.540 You really do. You have to ask, am I managing 00:06:45.540 --> 00:06:48.279 my herd for the future or am I basically just 00:06:48.279 --> 00:06:50.540 managing its obsolescence? Because the old way 00:06:50.540 --> 00:06:52.579 of doing things isn't just less effective now, 00:06:52.779 --> 00:06:55.540 it's actively costing you money, especially, 00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:57.720 especially given the current cost of replacement. 00:06:57.759 --> 00:07:00.620 That's the key. That unsuspenseful outcome. It 00:07:00.620 --> 00:07:02.279 wasn't really about the excitement of the show. 00:07:02.480 --> 00:07:05.139 It was a signal that the veterans, some of them 00:07:05.139 --> 00:07:07.500 anyway, are falling behind the curve on what 00:07:07.500 --> 00:07:10.060 truly matters for profitability today. Yeah, 00:07:10.079 --> 00:07:12.699 that structural piece or maybe the lack of it 00:07:12.699 --> 00:07:14.980 leads us right into our industry reality check. 00:07:15.240 --> 00:07:17.560 We absolutely have to challenge that old narrative, 00:07:17.800 --> 00:07:20.579 the everyone knows idea that just having years 00:07:20.579 --> 00:07:22.759 of experience automatically means you get the 00:07:22.759 --> 00:07:25.180 best results. It's tempting to rely on that. 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:27.899 But yeah, the source argues, and I think the 00:07:27.899 --> 00:07:30.339 evidence backs it up, that the genomic revolution 00:07:30.339 --> 00:07:33.540 has fundamentally democratized excellence in 00:07:33.540 --> 00:07:36.019 dairy cattle selection. OK, I admit, I still 00:07:36.019 --> 00:07:40.279 feel a strong pull toward the value of the Experienced 00:07:40.279 --> 00:07:43.300 veteran I you know that intuition yeah, but I 00:07:43.300 --> 00:07:46.420 have to concede the data the results like we 00:07:46.420 --> 00:07:49.040 saw at Expo They're forcing me and probably a 00:07:49.040 --> 00:07:51.860 lot of others to adjust our thinking how so what 00:07:51.860 --> 00:07:55.120 was it like before? Well think back before genomics 00:07:55.120 --> 00:07:57.079 really took hold if you wanted access to the 00:07:57.079 --> 00:07:59.680 very very best sire lines You pretty much had 00:07:59.680 --> 00:08:02.120 to be a huge operation with really deep pockets, 00:08:02.120 --> 00:08:05.040 right? Or geographically lucky or be geographically 00:08:05.040 --> 00:08:07.279 close to one of the major breeding centers exactly 00:08:08.020 --> 00:08:10.779 Genetics felt almost proprietary. They were expensive 00:08:10.779 --> 00:08:13.139 and it took years to prove out a bull through 00:08:13.139 --> 00:08:16.920 his daughters. It was slow. So slow. But now 00:08:16.920 --> 00:08:19.860 the data itself is forcing us to recalibrate 00:08:19.860 --> 00:08:22.660 the entire industry scale. Let's talk about that 00:08:22.660 --> 00:08:26.100 big news. The upcoming 2025 genetic base change. 00:08:26.439 --> 00:08:29.319 Ah, yes, the base change. Good point. This isn't 00:08:29.319 --> 00:08:32.200 just some bureaucratic paperwork exercise. This 00:08:32.200 --> 00:08:34.879 change is needed precisely because such significant 00:08:34.879 --> 00:08:37.080 genetic progress has been made just in the last 00:08:37.080 --> 00:08:39.600 five years. They're driven almost entirely by 00:08:39.600 --> 00:08:42.340 genomic selection. Exactly. The pace is just 00:08:42.340 --> 00:08:44.580 incredible. OK, we should probably be really 00:08:44.580 --> 00:08:47.000 clear about what this base change actually means 00:08:47.000 --> 00:08:49.419 for the farmer listening, because it can be confusing. 00:08:49.460 --> 00:08:52.039 Good idea. Go ahead. So roughly every five years, 00:08:52.460 --> 00:08:54.899 the industry basically recalculates the genetic 00:08:54.899 --> 00:08:57.419 average of the entire cow population for key 00:08:57.419 --> 00:08:59.980 traits. and then they set that new average to 00:08:59.980 --> 00:09:02.159 zero. Right, it's like resetting the baseline. 00:09:02.460 --> 00:09:04.720 Exactly. It's done to make sure that the genetic 00:09:04.720 --> 00:09:08.679 predictions we rely on, the EPDs, the PTAs, remain 00:09:08.679 --> 00:09:11.299 relevant and accurate measures of how an animal 00:09:11.299 --> 00:09:13.940 compares to the current average cow. So practically 00:09:13.940 --> 00:09:16.360 speaking, what you might see is, you know, you 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:18.720 log into your herd management software next year 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:22.139 and suddenly your favorite cow's PTA for milk 00:09:22.139 --> 00:09:24.820 or fat has dropped quite a bit. Yeah, and you 00:09:24.820 --> 00:09:27.500 panic. Right. But her actual genetics haven't 00:09:27.500 --> 00:09:30.279 changed one bit. It's just that the average cow 00:09:30.279 --> 00:09:32.600 she's being compared against, that new zero baseline, 00:09:33.139 --> 00:09:35.519 is now genetically much, much better than the 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:38.559 average cow from five years ago. Genomics just 00:09:38.559 --> 00:09:41.059 accelerated that timeline dramatically. It made 00:09:41.059 --> 00:09:43.620 the old scale, the old measuring stick, obsolete 00:09:43.620 --> 00:09:45.899 really quickly. And that is the democratization 00:09:45.899 --> 00:09:47.779 in action you were talking about, the very top 00:09:47.779 --> 00:09:50.519 genetics, the elite stuff. It's no longer locked 00:09:50.519 --> 00:09:53.240 away with just the elite bull studs or the massive 00:09:53.240 --> 00:09:55.820 breeding cooperatives? Nope. Access to the best 00:09:55.820 --> 00:09:57.580 genetics, or at least the potential for them, 00:09:57.980 --> 00:10:01.340 is pretty much universal now. Artificial insemination, 00:10:01.480 --> 00:10:04.429 AI, has truly leveled the playing field. It allows 00:10:04.429 --> 00:10:06.549 even a small junior exhibitor, maybe working 00:10:06.549 --> 00:10:09.370 with just a few cows, to access semen from the 00:10:09.370 --> 00:10:12.309 same premier sire as the biggest, fanciest farm 00:10:12.309 --> 00:10:14.649 in the state. Look at that premier sire example 00:10:14.649 --> 00:10:17.190 they mentioned from the Heffer Show. Spring Hill 00:10:17.190 --> 00:10:20.690 James Dean. The semen from a top sire like that 00:10:20.690 --> 00:10:22.950 is available to virtually anyone willing to buy 00:10:22.950 --> 00:10:27.049 it. Pretty much. If everyone or almost everyone 00:10:27.049 --> 00:10:29.929 has access to those top genetics, what actually 00:10:29.929 --> 00:10:32.590 makes the difference then? What separates the 00:10:32.590 --> 00:10:35.350 grand champion from the animal -placing mid -pack 00:10:35.350 --> 00:10:37.429 in the class? Ah, now that's the million -dollar 00:10:37.429 --> 00:10:39.450 question, isn't it? It stops being primarily 00:10:39.450 --> 00:10:41.649 about just access to the genetics. And it starts 00:10:41.649 --> 00:10:44.389 being entirely about management and, crucially, 00:10:45.029 --> 00:10:47.110 the ability to select the right animal to breed 00:10:47.110 --> 00:10:49.450 in the first place and then develop it properly. 00:10:49.590 --> 00:10:52.240 Right. Okay, but this is where I might push back 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:54.000 just a little bit on the pure data argument. 00:10:54.419 --> 00:10:57.620 The data is accessible, yes, no doubt. But the 00:10:57.620 --> 00:11:00.919 application of that data, how it's used, that 00:11:00.919 --> 00:11:03.500 feels different. How so? Well, many veterans, 00:11:03.840 --> 00:11:06.100 and look, I'll probably include myself in this 00:11:06.100 --> 00:11:08.639 group, we learned eyes first. We learned to judge 00:11:08.639 --> 00:11:11.299 structure, frame, locomotion based purely on 00:11:11.299 --> 00:11:12.960 what we saw walking around the pen. The visual 00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:16.460 assessment. The visual assessment. Then... Often, 00:11:16.779 --> 00:11:18.779 kind of reluctantly, we started integrating the 00:11:18.779 --> 00:11:21.120 data, the PTA reports, the DPD printouts later 00:11:21.120 --> 00:11:24.019 on. Often treating it more like a secondary tool, 00:11:24.379 --> 00:11:27.659 you know, something to verify what our eyes already 00:11:27.659 --> 00:11:29.480 told us. Okay, that's a really crucial distinction. 00:11:29.740 --> 00:11:32.899 Learning data second. The juniors seem different. 00:11:33.419 --> 00:11:36.200 What makes them... maybe genomic native, is that 00:11:36.200 --> 00:11:38.960 they grew up with the data. They never knew a 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:42.080 world where PTAs and EPDs weren't just a given 00:11:42.080 --> 00:11:44.179 part of the evaluation process. It's integrated 00:11:44.179 --> 00:11:46.639 from day one for them. Exactly. So they're looking 00:11:46.639 --> 00:11:48.460 at the structure, the frame, the feet and legs, 00:11:48.799 --> 00:11:51.860 but with an informed genomic expectation already 00:11:51.860 --> 00:11:54.070 built into their assessment. They aren't just 00:11:54.070 --> 00:11:55.730 looking for confirmation of what they see. They're 00:11:55.730 --> 00:11:58.350 looking for the synergy between the data and 00:11:58.350 --> 00:12:01.370 the physical animal. Ah, synergy, good word. 00:12:01.490 --> 00:12:03.929 They use the data to maybe narrow the field, 00:12:04.309 --> 00:12:07.090 identify the high potential animals, and then 00:12:07.090 --> 00:12:09.370 they use their eye to confirm that functional 00:12:09.370 --> 00:12:12.429 excellence. How well that genetic potential actually 00:12:12.429 --> 00:12:14.549 expresses itself physically in the real world. 00:12:14.830 --> 00:12:18.029 Okay, that makes sense. And that's why the judge's 00:12:18.029 --> 00:12:20.929 specific praise for the winners really validates 00:12:20.929 --> 00:12:23.960 this combined approach. Judge Ruath praised the 00:12:23.960 --> 00:12:27.580 champions for traits like being milkier, possessing 00:12:27.580 --> 00:12:29.919 exceptional strength, and having balance. Those 00:12:29.919 --> 00:12:32.740 aren't just random adjectives. No, those are 00:12:32.740 --> 00:12:35.879 visual confirmations of genomic progress towards 00:12:35.879 --> 00:12:39.240 a cow that's not just productive, but structurally 00:12:39.240 --> 00:12:42.340 sound. A cow designed to produce efficiently 00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:45.279 for five lactations, not just flash brightly 00:12:45.279 --> 00:12:47.629 for two and then burn out. Right. The genomics 00:12:47.629 --> 00:12:49.529 provided the underlying potential, absolutely. 00:12:49.730 --> 00:12:52.909 But it was the youth's genomic native eye, combined 00:12:52.909 --> 00:12:55.490 with their obviously superior management, that 00:12:55.490 --> 00:12:57.929 really sealed the deal and made those animals 00:12:57.929 --> 00:13:00.250 stand out. It's the blending, maybe, of the art 00:13:00.250 --> 00:13:03.309 and the science. Yeah. But the science is increasingly 00:13:03.309 --> 00:13:05.669 dictating the potential outcome now. The art 00:13:05.669 --> 00:13:07.450 of the eye is almost playing catch -up, confirming 00:13:07.450 --> 00:13:09.409 what the rapid genetic progress is delivering. 00:13:09.830 --> 00:13:12.269 And that blend, that synergy, connects directly 00:13:12.269 --> 00:13:14.639 to the farm bank account. Which brings us to 00:13:14.639 --> 00:13:17.379 maybe our third and arguably most critical point 00:13:17.379 --> 00:13:19.879 today, following the money. Always got to follow 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:22.639 the money. We absolutely need to connect cow 00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:25.399 structure directly to profitability because cow 00:13:25.399 --> 00:13:28.240 longevity, keeping cows in the herd longer, has 00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:30.460 become arguably the single most important profit 00:13:30.460 --> 00:13:33.220 center in dairy right now. Why now? specifically 00:13:33.220 --> 00:13:35.940 because of these soaring replacement costs. This 00:13:35.940 --> 00:13:40.360 is the hard, cold reality that every single dairy 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:42.600 farmer needs to internalize, like yesterday. 00:13:42.899 --> 00:13:44.539 Let's talk real numbers here, not just theory. 00:13:45.080 --> 00:13:47.860 The USDA's numbers back in July pegged replacement 00:13:47.860 --> 00:13:52.440 heifers at $3 ,010 per head. $3 ,000? Just average. 00:13:52.460 --> 00:13:54.559 That's the national average. And we saw other 00:13:54.559 --> 00:13:56.559 reports, like in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. 00:13:56.980 --> 00:14:00.440 They saw a staggering 69 % spike year over year. 00:14:00.539 --> 00:14:05.120 69 % hitting $2 ,850 on average there Wow and 00:14:05.120 --> 00:14:07.320 springers those cows just about rated a cap We're 00:14:07.320 --> 00:14:09.440 hearing reports seeing numbers consistently hitting 00:14:09.440 --> 00:14:11.480 $4 ,000 in some of the high -demand markets. 00:14:11.639 --> 00:14:13.740 It's incredible So think about that you are essentially 00:14:13.740 --> 00:14:16.340 taking out a three thousand maybe four thousand 00:14:16.340 --> 00:14:19.419 dollars short -term often unavoidable loan Just 00:14:19.419 --> 00:14:21.740 to maintain your current herd size every single 00:14:21.740 --> 00:14:23.820 time. You have to call a cow early. It's a huge 00:14:23.820 --> 00:14:26.850 cash drain If you're replacing, say, 35 % of 00:14:26.850 --> 00:14:29.649 your herd annually, mostly due to structural 00:14:29.649 --> 00:14:33.690 failure, lameness, infertility issues, that replacement 00:14:33.690 --> 00:14:36.330 cost is eating into your marginal profit faster 00:14:36.330 --> 00:14:38.570 than almost anything else on the farm. And that 00:14:38.570 --> 00:14:41.289 is precisely what makes the value of a longer 00:14:41.289 --> 00:14:45.100 -lived cow absolutely undeniable right now. Our 00:14:45.100 --> 00:14:47.100 source material highlights research showing that 00:14:47.100 --> 00:14:50.700 extending a cow's productive life by just one 00:14:50.700 --> 00:14:53.179 single lactation. Just one more. Just one more. 00:14:53.679 --> 00:14:55.519 Can reduce your overall replacement needs by 00:14:55.519 --> 00:14:59.940 about 25%. 25%. Think about what a 25 % reduction 00:14:59.940 --> 00:15:02.259 in buying replacements means when those animals 00:15:02.259 --> 00:15:06.159 cost three, maybe $4 ,000 each. That is serious, 00:15:06.179 --> 00:15:08.720 serious money saved. It drops right to the bottom 00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:10.899 line. It's arguably the highest value return 00:15:10.899 --> 00:15:12.779 on investment you can make on the farm today. 00:15:12.960 --> 00:15:15.120 Honestly, it might be more valuable than chasing 00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:17.980 that extra 2 % bump in feed efficiency, which 00:15:17.980 --> 00:15:20.299 often requires a massive capital investment in 00:15:20.299 --> 00:15:22.840 new mixers or technology. Good point. Extending 00:15:22.840 --> 00:15:25.919 longevity is an immediate, verifiable cost saving. 00:15:26.299 --> 00:15:28.340 It directly helps mitigate the volatility we 00:15:28.340 --> 00:15:31.139 see in milk prices and feed costs. But hang on, 00:15:31.179 --> 00:15:33.120 I have to maybe challenge this narrative just 00:15:33.120 --> 00:15:35.559 slightly. It's easy for us to sit here and say, 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:38.389 oh, just breed for five lactations. Right. Okay, 00:15:38.529 --> 00:15:40.509 fair enough. What's the challenge? For the average 00:15:40.509 --> 00:15:43.049 small or maybe medium -sized farmer listening, 00:15:43.730 --> 00:15:45.909 actually achieving that fifth lactation isn't 00:15:45.909 --> 00:15:48.710 solely about genetics. It's also about management 00:15:48.710 --> 00:15:52.029 resources. Can they really afford the specialized 00:15:52.029 --> 00:15:55.230 nutrition needed for older cows? The constant 00:15:55.230 --> 00:15:58.210 observation. The preventative care required to 00:15:58.210 --> 00:16:01.230 keep a cow healthy and productive for five plus 00:16:01.230 --> 00:16:04.059 lactations. So the potential cost of keeping 00:16:04.059 --> 00:16:07.080 her. Yeah. I mean, if a young, genetically superior 00:16:07.080 --> 00:16:11.200 cow is also somehow high maintenance, maybe prone 00:16:11.200 --> 00:16:13.759 to issues if not managed perfectly, the smaller 00:16:13.759 --> 00:16:16.159 operation might actually break even sooner financially 00:16:16.159 --> 00:16:18.720 by just replacing her early rather than pouring 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:20.960 limited resources into stretching her life another 00:16:20.960 --> 00:16:23.200 year or two. Does that make sense? That's a fair 00:16:23.200 --> 00:16:25.059 counterpoint, absolutely. The resource constraint 00:16:25.059 --> 00:16:27.240 is real, but I think what the winning juniors 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:29.399 at Expo are demonstrating is that the type of 00:16:29.399 --> 00:16:31.539 cow they are selecting actually minimizes that 00:16:31.539 --> 00:16:34.220 potential resource burden. They aren't selecting 00:16:34.220 --> 00:16:36.559 fragile, high -maintenance animals that require 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:39.179 constant, intensive intervention just to survive. 00:16:39.820 --> 00:16:43.000 They're selecting robust, structurally sound 00:16:43.000 --> 00:16:45.600 animals from the get -go. Okay. Therefore, the 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:48.090 investment in the right genetics... the genetics 00:16:48.090 --> 00:16:50.990 that ensure longevity through structural soundness 00:16:50.990 --> 00:16:54.830 becomes a form of crucial risk mitigation. You're 00:16:54.830 --> 00:16:57.330 investing maybe $50 in the right kind of semen 00:16:57.330 --> 00:17:01.169 today to avoid a practically guaranteed $3 ,000 00:17:01.169 --> 00:17:04.589 penalty in 36 months when the wrong kind of cow 00:17:04.589 --> 00:17:07.529 inevitably breaks down. So the high quality longevity 00:17:07.529 --> 00:17:10.269 genetics actually reduce the management overhead 00:17:10.269 --> 00:17:12.950 required later on because the cow is just physically 00:17:12.950 --> 00:17:15.309 built better to handle the stress. Exactly. She's 00:17:15.309 --> 00:17:17.650 less likely to need that intervention because 00:17:17.650 --> 00:17:20.410 her foundation is solid okay okay let's try to 00:17:20.410 --> 00:17:22.170 do the math then just to make this really tangible 00:17:22.170 --> 00:17:24.289 for everyone listening let's assume like the 00:17:24.289 --> 00:17:27.869 numbers say a replacement costs $3 ,000 and let's 00:17:27.869 --> 00:17:30.490 say an average cow produces 30 ,000 pounds of 00:17:30.490 --> 00:17:33.549 milk per lactation pretty standard okay standard 00:17:33.549 --> 00:17:37.549 numbers so if that cow only lasts two lactations 00:17:37.549 --> 00:17:40.670 before she's called maybe lameness maybe utter 00:17:40.670 --> 00:17:44.809 breakdown she produces a lifetime total of 60 00:17:44.809 --> 00:17:48.039 ,000 pounds of milk Right, so that $3 ,000 replacement 00:17:48.039 --> 00:17:51.119 cost has to be amortized, spread out, over just 00:17:51.119 --> 00:17:53.279 60 ,000 pounds of milk, if you calculate that 00:17:53.279 --> 00:17:55.859 out, Leslie. 3 ,000 divided by 60 ,000, that 00:17:55.859 --> 00:17:58.500 comes out to five cents per pound of milk. $5 00:17:58.500 --> 00:18:00.839 .00, five pounds. Or how we usually think about 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:03.660 it, $5 .00 per hundredweight. $5 .00 send a view, 00:18:03.660 --> 00:18:05.680 too. $5 .00 per hundredweight. That's the hidden 00:18:05.680 --> 00:18:08.099 replacement cost burden riding on every single 00:18:08.099 --> 00:18:10.619 gallon that short -lived cow produces. It's baked 00:18:10.619 --> 00:18:13.339 in. Now, contrast that. Take the cow selected 00:18:13.339 --> 00:18:15.839 by the junior exhibitor, the one bred specifically 00:18:15.839 --> 00:18:18.220 for structural excellence and longevity. Let's 00:18:18.220 --> 00:18:20.339 say she lasts the five lactations we're aiming 00:18:20.339 --> 00:18:22.700 for. Okay, five lactations at 30 ,000 pounds 00:18:22.700 --> 00:18:25.680 each. That's 150 ,000 pounds of lifetime milk 00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:28.460 production. Same $3 ,000 initial replacement 00:18:28.460 --> 00:18:31.279 cost, but now it's amortized over 150 ,000 pounds. 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:34.339 Right. So 3 ,000 divided by 150 ,000, that's 00:18:34.339 --> 00:18:37.279 two cents per pound of milk, .02 pounds. Or $2 00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:40.279 per hundred weight, $2 cent dubbidi. Wow! Okay, 00:18:40.420 --> 00:18:42.559 the difference is stark when you lay it out like 00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:46.240 that. It's $3 per 100 weight. $5 in W minus $2 00:18:46.240 --> 00:18:49.480 in WT. $3 per 100 weight. That difference is 00:18:49.480 --> 00:18:52.740 purely profit retention. money kept in your pocket, 00:18:53.140 --> 00:18:56.519 simply gained through achieving longevity, that's 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:59.059 how much the wrong kind of genetics, the ones 00:18:59.059 --> 00:19:02.039 leading to early culling, are actively costing 00:19:02.039 --> 00:19:04.259 you every single day. That's a powerful number. 00:19:04.779 --> 00:19:07.240 And this ties back directly to those specific 00:19:07.240 --> 00:19:09.660 structural traits the judge, Mark Ruith, was 00:19:09.660 --> 00:19:11.660 calling out. Remember the Guernsey champion he 00:19:11.660 --> 00:19:13.680 praised, Cadence Fam's lovely? Yeah, Cadence 00:19:13.680 --> 00:19:16.740 Farm. He specifically focused on her width to 00:19:16.740 --> 00:19:19.740 the chest floor. Now why is that specific seemingly 00:19:19.740 --> 00:19:22.440 minor physical trait so absolutely crucial for 00:19:22.440 --> 00:19:24.240 offsetting that three dollars in gravity penalty 00:19:24.240 --> 00:19:26.339 we just calculated? Because it's literally the 00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:28.460 foundation of the economic engine that is the 00:19:28.460 --> 00:19:31.200 dairy cow within the chest floor. It typically 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.759 indicates greater internal capacity, more room 00:19:33.759 --> 00:19:35.519 for the heart and lungs to function efficiently. 00:19:35.680 --> 00:19:38.500 Right. The powerhouse. Exactly. That's essential 00:19:38.500 --> 00:19:42.000 for moving the massive volume of blood flow required 00:19:42.000 --> 00:19:45.339 to produce 100 plus pounds of milk per day without 00:19:45.339 --> 00:19:48.529 the system breaking down. It also correlates 00:19:48.529 --> 00:19:51.269 strongly with overall robustness, resistance 00:19:51.269 --> 00:19:54.130 to metabolic issues, things like ketosis, digestive 00:19:54.130 --> 00:19:56.210 problems. Things that take cows out early. Things 00:19:56.210 --> 00:19:58.990 that take cows out early. Yeah. A narrow -chested, 00:19:59.130 --> 00:20:01.869 sharply angled cow might look elegant, maybe 00:20:01.869 --> 00:20:04.410 even win some shows based on style points, but 00:20:04.410 --> 00:20:07.589 she often hits a metabolic wall. She just can't 00:20:07.589 --> 00:20:09.710 sustain high production and breaks down physically 00:20:09.710 --> 00:20:12.049 by the third lactation. So she costs you that 00:20:12.049 --> 00:20:15.619 $5 an hour. Precisely. The cows winning in Madison, 00:20:15.779 --> 00:20:17.299 the ones these juniors are clearly selecting 00:20:17.299 --> 00:20:19.579 for, they are the ones physically built to handle 00:20:19.579 --> 00:20:21.640 the physiological stress of the fourth and fifth 00:20:21.640 --> 00:20:24.299 lactation. They're the ones turning that potential 00:20:24.299 --> 00:20:27.339 $5 cent rate replacement burden into a much more 00:20:27.339 --> 00:20:30.099 profitable $2 cent rate success story. So these 00:20:30.099 --> 00:20:31.900 winning animals, they're not just pretty show 00:20:31.900 --> 00:20:33.839 cattle standing there looking good. They are 00:20:33.839 --> 00:20:36.380 functionally excellent economic machines. They're 00:20:36.380 --> 00:20:39.440 designed specifically to defer that $3 ,000 debt 00:20:39.440 --> 00:20:41.400 penalty for as long as possible. That's a great 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:44.529 way to put it. And the farms investing in these 00:20:44.529 --> 00:20:46.869 juniors supporting them, they are absolutely, 00:20:47.029 --> 00:20:49.670 as the source said, not doing charity work. They're 00:20:49.670 --> 00:20:52.170 building their future. They're building it by 00:20:52.170 --> 00:20:55.289 managing proactively for longevity instead of 00:20:55.289 --> 00:20:58.190 reactively managing for early obsolescence. Yeah. 00:20:58.269 --> 00:21:00.230 And that takes us right into looking at some 00:21:00.230 --> 00:21:02.269 specific case studies from the show, examples 00:21:02.269 --> 00:21:05.769 that really show exactly what kind of maybe integrated 00:21:05.769 --> 00:21:08.289 structure it takes to execute this new model 00:21:08.289 --> 00:21:10.529 successfully. That grunzi sweep you mentioned, 00:21:10.769 --> 00:21:13.230 Cadence Fames Lovely from Cadence Farm, it provides 00:21:13.230 --> 00:21:15.470 the perfect blueprint, doesn't it, for this new 00:21:15.470 --> 00:21:18.210 kind of holistic approach. It really does. Achieving 00:21:18.210 --> 00:21:20.470 a clean sweep like that, grand champion? Okay, 00:21:20.470 --> 00:21:23.460 fine. but also best bred and owned, also best 00:21:23.460 --> 00:21:25.700 udder, and the total performance winner. You 00:21:25.700 --> 00:21:28.019 just cannot fake that kind of success. No way. 00:21:28.299 --> 00:21:30.259 That requires everything firing on all cylinders. 00:21:30.740 --> 00:21:32.859 The selection strategy has to be right, the breeding 00:21:32.859 --> 00:21:35.819 decision spot on, and the superior daily management, 00:21:35.900 --> 00:21:39.099 the feeding, the care. It all has to operate 00:21:39.099 --> 00:21:41.700 at a peak level to bring it together. It confirms 00:21:41.700 --> 00:21:44.740 the genomic potential is there, but also that 00:21:44.740 --> 00:21:47.380 it was realized visually and functionally. Think 00:21:47.380 --> 00:21:49.559 about what that clean sweep really signifies. 00:21:49.789 --> 00:21:52.829 To win best bred and owned means your internal 00:21:52.829 --> 00:21:55.450 genetics program is sound. You've selected the 00:21:55.450 --> 00:21:57.569 right animals, made the right matings on your 00:21:57.569 --> 00:22:00.269 own farm. Right, homegrown success. But to also 00:22:00.269 --> 00:22:04.170 take best udder and total performance. That speaks 00:22:04.170 --> 00:22:06.990 volumes about the daily care, the feeding program, 00:22:07.150 --> 00:22:09.710 the conditioning, the overall animal husbandry. 00:22:10.049 --> 00:22:14.009 It demonstrates a true 360 degree approach to 00:22:14.009 --> 00:22:16.339 dairy farming. It means the junior exhibitor 00:22:16.339 --> 00:22:18.200 didn't just, you know, go out and buy the best 00:22:18.200 --> 00:22:20.259 cow they could find. They created and managed 00:22:20.259 --> 00:22:22.759 the best cow. There's a huge difference. Huge 00:22:22.759 --> 00:22:25.039 difference. And, you know, while we saw some 00:22:25.039 --> 00:22:27.319 powerful genetics coming in from other regions, 00:22:27.779 --> 00:22:30.230 like that Jersey Heifer winner. cash in video, 00:22:30.289 --> 00:22:32.710 stop and stare ET coming all the way from California. 00:22:32.710 --> 00:22:34.990 Yeah, two layer genetics taking the open and 00:22:34.990 --> 00:22:38.069 junior champion titles shows that geographic 00:22:38.069 --> 00:22:40.349 competition for the top stuff is still fierce. 00:22:40.630 --> 00:22:43.269 Absolutely fierce. But importantly, the homegrown 00:22:43.269 --> 00:22:45.289 Midwest genetics didn't just roll over and play 00:22:45.289 --> 00:22:47.809 dead. You had the Miller's Joel King majesty 00:22:47.809 --> 00:22:50.049 securing the junior champion bread and owned 00:22:50.049 --> 00:22:53.359 award in that same Jersey show. Good point. Staying 00:22:53.359 --> 00:22:55.700 competitive locally. It demonstrates that the 00:22:55.700 --> 00:22:59.380 specific, focused selection strategy, prioritizing 00:22:59.380 --> 00:23:02.339 those key functional traits, is what truly matters 00:23:02.339 --> 00:23:04.819 now. Maybe more than just relying on a famous 00:23:04.819 --> 00:23:07.779 regional pedigree, or a big name. So the common 00:23:07.779 --> 00:23:10.019 thread isn't the state name on the registration 00:23:10.019 --> 00:23:12.799 paper? No. The common thread is the dedication 00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:15.500 to those specific structural traits we keep talking 00:23:15.500 --> 00:23:18.500 about. The utter cleft, the foot angle, the mobility, 00:23:18.940 --> 00:23:21.529 that crucial chest capacity. regardless of what 00:23:21.529 --> 00:23:24.130 state the cow happened to be bred in. The competition 00:23:24.130 --> 00:23:27.150 now seems based much more on achieving functional 00:23:27.150 --> 00:23:29.890 excellence, not just historical brand recognition. 00:23:30.450 --> 00:23:32.549 Okay, and let's analyze that Ayrshire example 00:23:32.549 --> 00:23:35.569 the source mentioned. Bricker Farms are Cadillac 00:23:35.569 --> 00:23:38.049 ET from Bricker Farms. Oh yeah, the Bricker family. 00:23:38.269 --> 00:23:40.009 The source makes a really interesting point here. 00:23:40.369 --> 00:23:42.390 This wasn't just a win for one kid showing a 00:23:42.390 --> 00:23:45.230 great cow. This operation involves three generations 00:23:45.230 --> 00:23:47.500 working together. That's right. Todd and Lindsay, 00:23:47.660 --> 00:23:49.579 the parents, working closely with their kids, 00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:52.420 Allison, Lacey, and Kinsley. Plus they have partners 00:23:52.420 --> 00:23:55.059 involved too. That feels like a really successful 00:23:55.059 --> 00:23:57.940 model, not just for showing, but maybe for industry 00:23:57.940 --> 00:24:00.000 succession overall. It's something maybe every 00:24:00.000 --> 00:24:02.859 farm should study closely. I agree. It's a family 00:24:02.859 --> 00:24:06.180 and partner structure that's clearly leveraging 00:24:06.180 --> 00:24:09.640 multi -generational knowledge effectively. You've 00:24:09.640 --> 00:24:12.710 got the youth. who are likely bringing that genomic 00:24:12.710 --> 00:24:15.170 native selection skill we talk about, that ability 00:24:15.170 --> 00:24:18.910 to interpret the data and apply the eye simultaneously, 00:24:19.009 --> 00:24:21.450 maybe more intuitively. Right, the fresh perspective, 00:24:21.750 --> 00:24:23.609 the data comfort. And then you have the veterans, 00:24:23.910 --> 00:24:26.170 the parents, maybe the partners, providing the 00:24:26.170 --> 00:24:28.490 essential infrastructure, the resources, the 00:24:28.490 --> 00:24:31.809 financial backing, but also that deep institutional 00:24:31.809 --> 00:24:34.420 knowledge about what actually works and what 00:24:34.420 --> 00:24:36.640 doesn't, under their specific farm conditions, 00:24:37.079 --> 00:24:38.920 their management style. It sounds like the perfect 00:24:38.920 --> 00:24:41.200 synergy, doesn't it? The veterans provide the 00:24:41.200 --> 00:24:44.299 wisdom, maybe the guardrails, to avoid costly 00:24:44.299 --> 00:24:46.759 pitfalls based on years of experience. Yeah, 00:24:46.880 --> 00:24:50.440 we tried that in 98 and it didn't work. Exactly. 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:53.079 And the youth bring the cutting edge selection 00:24:53.079 --> 00:24:56.420 skills, the comfort with new technologies, the 00:24:56.420 --> 00:24:58.680 approaches that maybe the older generation might 00:24:58.680 --> 00:25:01.819 be a bit slower or more hesitant to adopt fully. 00:25:02.029 --> 00:25:04.170 It means the whole operation isn't stuck in the 00:25:04.170 --> 00:25:06.289 mud repeating old patterns. They're actively 00:25:06.289 --> 00:25:09.269 moving forward, making faster progress by using 00:25:09.269 --> 00:25:11.529 the combined knowledge and skills of the entire 00:25:11.529 --> 00:25:14.680 team. It's collaboration. That partnership model 00:25:14.680 --> 00:25:18.039 is so key. And it brings us perfectly into thinking 00:25:18.039 --> 00:25:20.380 about the future implications of this whole trend 00:25:20.380 --> 00:25:23.000 we're seeing. We really need to shift our focus, 00:25:23.039 --> 00:25:25.599 maybe just for a bit, away from just the purple 00:25:25.599 --> 00:25:27.920 ribbons and the grand champion banners. As exciting 00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:30.740 as those are. As exciting as they are. And dive 00:25:30.740 --> 00:25:33.119 deeper into the judging contests. Because you 00:25:33.119 --> 00:25:35.259 could argue they are equally important, maybe 00:25:35.259 --> 00:25:37.680 even more important, than the show ring wins 00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:39.779 when we think about the long -term future health 00:25:39.779 --> 00:25:41.759 of the dairy industry. Oh, absolutely. I couldn't 00:25:41.759 --> 00:25:44.680 agree more. That judging pavilion on Sunday at 00:25:44.680 --> 00:25:47.420 Expo, that's where the real future herd managers, 00:25:47.799 --> 00:25:50.240 the future genetic decision makers, were being 00:25:50.240 --> 00:25:53.460 actively trained and rigorously tested. If the 00:25:53.460 --> 00:25:55.940 $3 ,000 replacement heifer is the problem we 00:25:55.940 --> 00:25:58.940 keep highlighting, then the kids competing in 00:25:58.940 --> 00:26:02.099 those collegiate judging contests, they are a 00:26:02.099 --> 00:26:04.299 huge part of the solution. Look at the sheer 00:26:04.299 --> 00:26:06.680 dominance demonstrated by the University of Minnesota 00:26:06.680 --> 00:26:09.599 in the intercollegiate contest. They three -peated. 00:26:09.789 --> 00:26:11.829 They won it for the third year in a row, with 00:26:11.829 --> 00:26:15.910 a massive score of 2 ,505. Incredible consistency. 00:26:16.089 --> 00:26:18.609 And they weren't just guessing lucky. They demonstrated 00:26:18.609 --> 00:26:22.390 superior, measurable knowledge across the board. 00:26:23.130 --> 00:26:25.730 And importantly, their real strength was clearly 00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:28.650 in giving oral reasons. They took top honors 00:26:28.650 --> 00:26:32.500 there too, with 821 points just on reasons. Okay, 00:26:32.519 --> 00:26:34.519 we probably need to explain quickly what giving 00:26:34.519 --> 00:26:37.359 oral reasons actually entails in a judging contest 00:26:37.359 --> 00:26:39.500 and why you'd call it a multi -million dollar 00:26:39.500 --> 00:26:41.480 skill set because it's not just about talking 00:26:41.480 --> 00:26:43.859 pretty. Not at all. Go for it. It's intense. 00:26:44.220 --> 00:26:46.880 It's rapid. It's highly structured and it requires 00:26:46.880 --> 00:26:48.880 defensible critical thinking under pressure. 00:26:49.380 --> 00:26:51.579 A student has maybe 15 minutes to look closely 00:26:51.579 --> 00:26:53.359 at a class of four animals they've never seen 00:26:53.359 --> 00:26:55.559 before. They have to rank them first to fourth. 00:26:56.009 --> 00:26:58.069 Then, they have to stand up in front of an expert 00:26:58.069 --> 00:27:01.630 judge, often with spectators watching, and articulate, 00:27:02.029 --> 00:27:04.650 using very specific technical dairy terminology, 00:27:05.049 --> 00:27:07.009 exactly why they placed the class the way they 00:27:07.009 --> 00:27:09.410 did, why the first cow beats the second, why 00:27:09.410 --> 00:27:12.069 the second beats the third, and crucially, why 00:27:12.069 --> 00:27:14.750 the cow they placed last is inferior to the others. 00:27:14.930 --> 00:27:16.329 And they have to connect it back to function, 00:27:16.470 --> 00:27:18.640 right? That's the key. They have to connect their 00:27:18.640 --> 00:27:21.799 visual assessment directly to economic productivity 00:27:21.799 --> 00:27:24.900 and longevity traits. It's about justifying their 00:27:24.900 --> 00:27:28.160 decisions based on factors that impact a farm's 00:27:28.160 --> 00:27:30.240 bottom line. So could you maybe give an example, 00:27:30.440 --> 00:27:33.299 like imagine a student giving a strong oral reason 00:27:33.299 --> 00:27:35.660 about a class of Holsteins. What might that sound 00:27:35.660 --> 00:27:37.779 like? OK, sure. A really good set of reasons 00:27:37.779 --> 00:27:40.420 might sound something like this. Sir, I place 00:27:40.420 --> 00:27:44.220 this class of aged Holsteins 1, 2, 3, 4. I grant 00:27:44.220 --> 00:27:46.660 the advantage in overall dariness to my second 00:27:46.660 --> 00:27:50.519 place cow, but I placed 1 over 2, primarily due 00:27:50.519 --> 00:27:53.160 to her distinct advantage in structural integrity, 00:27:53.640 --> 00:27:55.640 particularly in her mammary system and feet and 00:27:55.640 --> 00:27:59.019 legs. The winning cow exhibits a higher, wider 00:27:59.019 --> 00:28:01.900 rear udder attachment and a stronger fore udder 00:28:01.900 --> 00:28:04.500 attachment. indicating greater longevity potential. 00:28:04.980 --> 00:28:06.559 Furthermore, she tracks straighter on her rear 00:28:06.559 --> 00:28:09.740 legs with less hock and more depth of heel, suggesting 00:28:09.740 --> 00:28:12.180 superior mobility and a lower risk of lameness 00:28:12.180 --> 00:28:15.259 compared to two. Okay, comparing directly. Now, 00:28:15.259 --> 00:28:18.599 moving to my middle pair, I place two over three, 00:28:19.180 --> 00:28:21.119 faulting three and placing her third due to her 00:28:21.119 --> 00:28:23.720 comparative lack of width throughout, particularly 00:28:23.720 --> 00:28:26.140 her narrower chest floor and lack of spring of 00:28:26.140 --> 00:28:30.119 rib. While 3 may be taller, 2 possesses the superior 00:28:30.119 --> 00:28:32.480 body capacity and functional width, essential 00:28:32.480 --> 00:28:34.440 for sustaining high production over multiple 00:28:34.440 --> 00:28:37.759 lactations and minimizing metabolic risk. Connecting 00:28:37.759 --> 00:28:40.140 width to function again. Finally, while acknowledging 00:28:40.140 --> 00:28:42.480 the length of body of my third -place cow, I 00:28:42.480 --> 00:28:44.599 placed her over 4, leaving 4 in fourth place 00:28:44.599 --> 00:28:47.079 due to her weaker loin, lower pins, and less 00:28:47.079 --> 00:28:49.180 desirable slope from hooks to pins, indicating 00:28:49.180 --> 00:28:51.220 structural weakness is likely to shorten her 00:28:51.220 --> 00:28:53.279 productive life. Therefore, I place this class 00:28:53.279 --> 00:28:57.599 of Holstein HCALS 1234. Wow. That is the language 00:28:57.599 --> 00:29:00.500 of a future farm manager who fundamentally understands 00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:03.480 risk mitigation, structural soundness, and economics. 00:29:03.940 --> 00:29:07.710 Not just, I liked one better. Exactly. When students 00:29:07.710 --> 00:29:10.849 can articulate why one cow beats another under 00:29:10.849 --> 00:29:14.210 that kind of pressure, justifying it with economically 00:29:14.210 --> 00:29:17.269 relevant traits, they're developing skills worth 00:29:17.269 --> 00:29:27.140 real money to any dairy operation. five or ten 00:29:27.140 --> 00:29:29.240 years. Because they're not just picking pretty 00:29:29.240 --> 00:29:31.619 animals, they're justifying the potential return 00:29:31.619 --> 00:29:34.059 on investment based on predictable longevity. 00:29:34.319 --> 00:29:36.119 And look at the post -secondary example from 00:29:36.119 --> 00:29:38.559 SU on Cobble Scale. They were even more dominant 00:29:38.559 --> 00:29:40.619 in their division. They swept absolutely everything. 00:29:40.839 --> 00:29:42.890 Total sweep. It just demonstrates that these 00:29:42.890 --> 00:29:44.690 students are already thinking like they own the 00:29:44.690 --> 00:29:47.210 farm. That high individual score, Connor McNeil 00:29:47.210 --> 00:29:50.309 getting 769 points, that isn't just a high number. 00:29:50.750 --> 00:29:53.470 It reflects a deep applied understanding of dairy 00:29:53.470 --> 00:29:55.589 management, selection principles, and economics 00:29:55.589 --> 00:29:57.970 that is basically ready for immediate deployment 00:29:57.970 --> 00:30:00.460 on a commercial dairy tomorrow. And the depth 00:30:00.460 --> 00:30:02.660 across the board, even below the top winners, 00:30:02.779 --> 00:30:05.700 is remarkable too. You mentioned the 4 -H contest, 00:30:05.779 --> 00:30:08.079 where only five points separated the top teams, 00:30:08.279 --> 00:30:11.140 Minnesota and Wisconsin. Just five points. It 00:30:11.140 --> 00:30:14.079 shows that these foundational skills, the ability 00:30:14.079 --> 00:30:16.599 to use the eye effectively and integrate the 00:30:16.599 --> 00:30:19.539 data, are being taught widely and effectively 00:30:19.539 --> 00:30:21.980 across the country in these youth programs. These 00:30:21.980 --> 00:30:24.880 are the future herd managers, the future geneticists, 00:30:25.039 --> 00:30:26.880 the future nutritionists cutting their teeth 00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:28.700 right now in these competitions. Absolutely. 00:30:28.880 --> 00:30:31.539 And so here's the direct farm level implication 00:30:31.539 --> 00:30:34.500 for you listening. If you aren't actively partnering 00:30:34.500 --> 00:30:36.920 with, supporting, or engaging with these youth 00:30:36.920 --> 00:30:39.900 programs, your local 4 -H club, the FFA chapter, 00:30:40.099 --> 00:30:42.039 or maybe sponsoring a collegiate gending team, 00:30:42.099 --> 00:30:44.960 you are missing out. Big time. You are losing 00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:47.640 out on connecting with your future labor pool, 00:30:47.900 --> 00:30:50.079 your future management palette. These young people 00:30:50.079 --> 00:30:52.220 who understand how to merge genomics and visual 00:30:52.220 --> 00:30:54.839 appraisal, they are arguably your most valuable 00:30:54.839 --> 00:30:57.599 potential resource moving forward. Far more valuable 00:30:57.599 --> 00:30:59.920 than any shiny new piece of equipment you might 00:30:59.920 --> 00:31:02.799 buy. You're essentially investing in future brain 00:31:02.799 --> 00:31:05.960 power and skill sets that will prevent costly 00:31:05.960 --> 00:31:09.900 errors down the line. To still view supporting 00:31:09.900 --> 00:31:13.099 these programs as just optional charity work 00:31:13.099 --> 00:31:16.299 or a nice thing to do. Honestly, in the current 00:31:16.299 --> 00:31:19.160 economic environment, that feels like borderline 00:31:19.160 --> 00:31:23.099 economic malpractice. Agreed 100%, which takes 00:31:23.099 --> 00:31:25.799 us nicely into our contrarian take for today. 00:31:26.009 --> 00:31:28.829 This challenges that popular, maybe comfortable 00:31:28.829 --> 00:31:31.089 industry narrative that high milk prices are 00:31:31.089 --> 00:31:33.309 the magic bullet that solves everything. Yeah, 00:31:33.329 --> 00:31:34.809 everyone loves a high milk price, obviously. 00:31:34.809 --> 00:31:36.470 Of course. Everyone's focused on the margin right 00:31:36.470 --> 00:31:39.109 now, the milk check. Yeah. But the real underlying 00:31:39.109 --> 00:31:41.609 structural issue, as our source material pointed 00:31:41.609 --> 00:31:44.849 out, is the looming and actually already present 00:31:44.849 --> 00:31:47.650 shortage of cattle, specifically replacement 00:31:47.650 --> 00:31:50.109 heifers. High milk prices are great, fantastic 00:31:50.109 --> 00:31:52.529 even. But if you physically don't have enough 00:31:52.529 --> 00:31:54.829 cows, especially enough good cows, to fill your 00:31:54.829 --> 00:31:56.940 barn and take it advantage of those prices, you 00:31:56.940 --> 00:31:59.599 simply can't capitalize fully. And the market 00:31:59.599 --> 00:32:01.940 data strongly supports this view. This isn't 00:32:01.940 --> 00:32:04.980 just speculation. Cobank research recently indicated 00:32:04.980 --> 00:32:07.740 that national heifer inventories could realistically 00:32:07.740 --> 00:32:11.579 decline by another 800 ,000 head. 800 ,000, that's 00:32:11.579 --> 00:32:14.319 a massive number. Before we even start seeing 00:32:14.319 --> 00:32:16.619 any kind of meaningful recovery, which they don't 00:32:16.619 --> 00:32:20.079 project until maybe 2027 at the earliest, we 00:32:20.079 --> 00:32:23.299 are facing a multi -year supply squeeze. on the 00:32:23.299 --> 00:32:25.660 actual cattle side of the equation, and that 00:32:25.660 --> 00:32:27.720 is going to fundamentally reshave the market 00:32:27.720 --> 00:32:30.059 dynamics. And here's the kicker, the part the 00:32:30.059 --> 00:32:31.779 optimists maybe aren't talking enough about. 00:32:31.920 --> 00:32:34.680 What's that? That shortage, that decline in heifer 00:32:34.680 --> 00:32:37.059 numbers, it's happening at the exact same time 00:32:37.059 --> 00:32:39.910 that processing capacity is expanding. Massively 00:32:39.910 --> 00:32:42.849 expand right that 10 billion dollar figure for 00:32:42.849 --> 00:32:45.289 new processing facilities coming online over 00:32:45.289 --> 00:32:48.329 the next few years Demanding more milk you got 00:32:48.329 --> 00:32:50.829 it this combination a shrinking national herd 00:32:50.829 --> 00:32:53.230 colliding with significantly expanding processing 00:32:53.230 --> 00:32:56.390 capacity Creates this monumental tension in the 00:32:56.390 --> 00:32:58.710 market It's unavoidable demand for milk is being 00:32:58.710 --> 00:33:01.910 set up to soar driven by this new capacity But 00:33:01.910 --> 00:33:04.410 the fundamental capacity of the national herd 00:33:04.410 --> 00:33:07.849 to produce that milk Will be constrained by the 00:33:07.849 --> 00:33:10.230 simple lack of replacement heifers entering the 00:33:10.230 --> 00:33:13.289 system which means which means Every farm is 00:33:13.289 --> 00:33:15.009 going to be fighting even harder for quality 00:33:15.009 --> 00:33:17.970 replacements just to maintain let alone grow 00:33:17.970 --> 00:33:21.430 their herds and that intense competition is inevitably 00:33:21.430 --> 00:33:24.849 going to push that already high $3 ,000 average 00:33:24.849 --> 00:33:27.269 price for heifers even higher. It's basic supply 00:33:27.269 --> 00:33:29.940 and demand Okay, so therefore, the producers 00:33:29.940 --> 00:33:33.099 who can successfully navigate this coming shortage 00:33:33.099 --> 00:33:35.880 while maintaining or even increasing the quality 00:33:35.880 --> 00:33:38.920 of their herd. Meaning, the producers who are 00:33:38.920 --> 00:33:41.480 actively breeding for longevity right now, the 00:33:41.480 --> 00:33:43.819 ones following the blueprint, the juniors are 00:33:43.819 --> 00:33:45.920 demonstrating with their focus on structural 00:33:45.920 --> 00:33:48.000 selection. Those producers. They are going to 00:33:48.000 --> 00:33:49.640 be in the driver's seat. They will practically 00:33:49.640 --> 00:33:51.680 be able to write their own ticket. They'll be 00:33:51.680 --> 00:33:53.920 the ones who can reliably supply the necessary 00:33:53.920 --> 00:33:56.240 volume of high quality milk to these expanding 00:33:56.240 --> 00:33:58.819 processors without constantly crashing their 00:33:58.819 --> 00:34:01.859 farm budget buying outrageously expensive replacements. 00:34:02.319 --> 00:34:04.660 So the ability to reduce your herds replacement 00:34:04.660 --> 00:34:08.280 rate from say a typical 35 % down to maybe 25 00:34:08.280 --> 00:34:10.420 % or even lower simply because your cows are 00:34:10.420 --> 00:34:12.679 lasting that crucial extra lactation or two. 00:34:12.920 --> 00:34:14.980 That's not just good management anymore. Yeah. 00:34:15.070 --> 00:34:17.230 In this coming environment, it becomes a powerful 00:34:17.230 --> 00:34:20.070 strategic advantage. It literally insulates your 00:34:20.070 --> 00:34:22.630 farm from the worst effects of this predicted 00:34:22.630 --> 00:34:25.429 supply squeeze and the associated rising heifer 00:34:25.429 --> 00:34:28.130 costs. It's like building an economic moat around 00:34:28.130 --> 00:34:30.409 your operation. So the core message coming out 00:34:30.409 --> 00:34:32.989 of World Dairy Expo, then, when you connect the 00:34:32.989 --> 00:34:35.389 dots between the show ring, the judging contest 00:34:35.389 --> 00:34:38.670 and the market economics, it's intensely economic 00:34:38.670 --> 00:34:40.909 and structural, isn't it? Absolutely. The industry 00:34:40.909 --> 00:34:43.449 desperately needs quality cows, cows that last 00:34:43.449 --> 00:34:45.750 in order to fill all that new processing capacity 00:34:45.750 --> 00:34:49.230 coming online. And the juniors, by consistently 00:34:49.230 --> 00:34:51.469 prioritizing structural excellence, things like 00:34:51.469 --> 00:34:53.769 width of the chest floor, utter quality, sound 00:34:53.769 --> 00:34:56.760 feet and legs, they have. inadvertently revealed 00:34:56.760 --> 00:34:58.960 the blueprint for the only kind of cow that really 00:34:58.960 --> 00:35:01.000 makes economic sense in the face of this coming 00:35:01.000 --> 00:35:03.699 supply squeeze. It's a revolution, really. But 00:35:03.699 --> 00:35:06.980 it's one driven entirely by the simple, stark 00:35:06.980 --> 00:35:11.800 necessity of avoiding that crushing $3 ,000 plus 00:35:11.800 --> 00:35:14.360 replacement penalty. And it's arguably the most 00:35:14.360 --> 00:35:16.380 profitable kind of revolution a farmer could 00:35:16.380 --> 00:35:18.659 ask for. Couldn't agree more. Hashtag actionable 00:35:18.659 --> 00:35:21.980 insights segment. All right. So the farmer listening 00:35:21.980 --> 00:35:23.679 just finished up morning milking. Maybe they're 00:35:23.679 --> 00:35:25.260 driving to the feed store right now thinking 00:35:25.260 --> 00:35:27.860 about all this. We've hit them with a deep dive 00:35:27.860 --> 00:35:32.280 on genomics, judging, longevity, market economics. 00:35:32.659 --> 00:35:35.300 Let's boil it down. What are the three most actionable 00:35:35.300 --> 00:35:37.059 things they absolutely need to take away from 00:35:37.059 --> 00:35:39.440 this discussion? Okay, three things. First, immediate 00:35:39.440 --> 00:35:41.980 action. And I mean, like, this week when you're 00:35:41.980 --> 00:35:44.639 looking at sire prus for your next breeding decisions. 00:35:45.179 --> 00:35:47.619 Re -evaluate longevity traits. Okay, specifically, 00:35:47.800 --> 00:35:49.320 how should they do that? What should they look 00:35:49.320 --> 00:35:52.800 for? Stop, or at least significantly deprioritize, 00:35:53.099 --> 00:35:55.300 chasing those marginal short -term spikes in 00:35:55.300 --> 00:35:57.940 production traits alone. Immediately prioritize 00:35:57.940 --> 00:36:00.380 structural traits known to impact longevity. 00:36:00.599 --> 00:36:03.260 Look hard at mobility scores, utter composite 00:36:03.260 --> 00:36:05.139 traits, particularly utter depth and attachments, 00:36:05.719 --> 00:36:08.000 and yes, critically, that width to the chest 00:36:08.000 --> 00:36:10.460 floor or overall body capacity that Judge Ruth 00:36:10.460 --> 00:36:13.460 specifically called out. Why the urgency? because 00:36:13.460 --> 00:36:16.860 longevity driven by structure is a higher immediate 00:36:16.860 --> 00:36:20.099 profit center right now than squeezing out a 00:36:20.099 --> 00:36:22.360 few marginal extra pounds of milk due to those 00:36:22.360 --> 00:36:25.420 replacement costs soaring past $3 ,000 per head. 00:36:25.820 --> 00:36:27.900 If your cow leaves the herd early because her 00:36:27.900 --> 00:36:30.019 structure failed, that tiny bit of extra milk 00:36:30.019 --> 00:36:32.530 she gave didn't matter one bit. Because you just 00:36:32.530 --> 00:36:34.710 triggered that massive five dollars or replacement 00:36:34.710 --> 00:36:37.150 cost burden we calculated. Yeah structural integrity 00:36:37.150 --> 00:36:39.710 is risk mitigation. Got it Prioritize structure 00:36:39.710 --> 00:36:41.650 as immediate risk mitigation. Okay What about 00:36:41.650 --> 00:36:43.449 a medium term strategy something for the next 00:36:43.449 --> 00:36:46.150 say three to six months medium term strategy? 00:36:46.949 --> 00:36:49.570 invest actively in youth partnerships, and I 00:36:49.570 --> 00:36:53.059 mean truly invest, not just donate 50 bucks at 00:36:53.059 --> 00:36:56.440 the fair auction. Stop viewing your support for 00:36:56.440 --> 00:37:00.280 4 -H or FFA or collegiate teams as just charity 00:37:00.280 --> 00:37:02.980 or some feel -good community obligation. How 00:37:02.980 --> 00:37:05.360 should they view it instead? Look at it strategically 00:37:05.360 --> 00:37:07.940 as investing in the single most valuable future 00:37:07.940 --> 00:37:10.019 labor and management pipeline available to the 00:37:10.019 --> 00:37:13.239 dairy industry right now. You need to actively 00:37:13.239 --> 00:37:16.079 look for meaningful ways to mentor, maybe partner 00:37:16.079 --> 00:37:18.639 with on a project effort, or even plan to hire 00:37:18.639 --> 00:37:21.780 these genomic native young people who intuitively 00:37:21.780 --> 00:37:25.000 understand how to blend data and structure simultaneously. 00:37:25.260 --> 00:37:27.420 Because they bring skills. They bring a skill 00:37:27.420 --> 00:37:29.920 set that can instantly start reducing your farm's 00:37:29.920 --> 00:37:31.760 costly breeding errors and improve your herd's 00:37:31.760 --> 00:37:34.380 longevity potential. It's an investment in future 00:37:34.380 --> 00:37:36.320 profitability. Okay, investing in the future 00:37:36.320 --> 00:37:38.460 brain power of the farm makes sense. Finally, 00:37:38.500 --> 00:37:40.699 what's the long -term positioning? Thinking ahead 00:37:40.699 --> 00:37:42.579 for the next one to two years, especially with 00:37:42.579 --> 00:37:45.340 that supply squeeze looming. Long -term positioning. 00:37:45.960 --> 00:37:47.920 Systematically reduce replacement dependency. 00:37:49.039 --> 00:37:51.519 Your primary strategic goal over the next couple 00:37:51.519 --> 00:37:54.360 of years must be to significantly reduce your 00:37:54.360 --> 00:37:57.260 herd's overall replacement rate, primarily by 00:37:57.260 --> 00:37:59.119 extending the productive life of the cows you 00:37:59.119 --> 00:38:01.860 already have. How achievable is that? Well, remember 00:38:01.860 --> 00:38:04.659 the research. Extending productive life by just 00:38:04.659 --> 00:38:07.840 one single lactation, on average, can cut your 00:38:07.840 --> 00:38:10.960 replacement needs by a whopping 25%. That needs 00:38:10.960 --> 00:38:13.980 to be the target. This is likely the only reliable 00:38:13.980 --> 00:38:16.860 strategy required to successfully navigate the 00:38:16.860 --> 00:38:19.960 predicted 800 ,000 head decline in national heifer 00:38:19.960 --> 00:38:22.500 inventory before we see any potential recovery 00:38:22.500 --> 00:38:25.340 around 2027. So the less reliant you are on the 00:38:25.340 --> 00:38:27.639 external market. Exactly. The fewer replacements 00:38:27.639 --> 00:38:29.579 you absolutely need to buy from the outside market, 00:38:29.800 --> 00:38:31.500 the more insulated your farm's finances will 00:38:31.500 --> 00:38:33.420 be from that volatile, almost certainly soaring 00:38:33.420 --> 00:38:36.019 heifer market price. It's about building resilience. 00:38:36.420 --> 00:38:38.340 OK, let me try to sum that up. The big message 00:38:38.340 --> 00:38:41.739 is The youth are showing the entire industry 00:38:41.739 --> 00:38:44.639 that the truly economic cow of the future is 00:38:44.639 --> 00:38:48.179 structurally sound, built for longevity. And 00:38:48.179 --> 00:38:50.440 if you, the farmer listening, are not actively 00:38:50.440 --> 00:38:52.800 following that blueprint, meaning prioritizing 00:38:52.800 --> 00:38:55.219 structure and longevity right alongside production 00:38:55.219 --> 00:38:57.619 in your breeding and management decisions, you 00:38:57.619 --> 00:39:00.360 are effectively choosing to pay a $3 ,000 penalty 00:39:00.360 --> 00:39:03.559 or more every single time you're forced to call 00:39:03.559 --> 00:39:05.820 a cow earlier than you should have. That's it 00:39:05.820 --> 00:39:07.260 in a nutshell. Couldn't have said it better. 00:39:07.699 --> 00:39:09.559 This has been another deep dive from the Bull 00:39:09.559 --> 00:39:12.079 Vine Podcast. If this kind of no BS analysis 00:39:12.079 --> 00:39:13.840 helps your operations stay ahead of the curve, 00:39:13.960 --> 00:39:17.860 make sure you head over to www .thebullvine .com. 00:39:18.019 --> 00:39:19.539 We've got tons more articles there that tell 00:39:19.539 --> 00:39:21.860 you what's really happening in dairy. And seriously, 00:39:22.099 --> 00:39:25.039 subscribe to the show wherever you get your audio 00:39:25.039 --> 00:39:27.500 deep dives. We're actually releasing new analysis 00:39:27.500 --> 00:39:29.119 like this twice weekly now, putting out more 00:39:29.119 --> 00:39:31.199 content. And trust me, you definitely don't want 00:39:31.199 --> 00:39:33.659 to miss what we've got coming up next week. We're 00:39:33.659 --> 00:39:36.179 going to dig into the true costs and some really 00:39:36.179 --> 00:39:39.340 unexpected regulatory hurdles facing that massive 00:39:39.340 --> 00:39:43.219 $10 billion wave of new processing capacity that's 00:39:43.219 --> 00:39:44.860 supposed to be coming online. It's definitely 00:39:44.860 --> 00:39:46.239 not as simple as just building.