Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast, where we
cut through dairy industry noise to get you the
insights that actually matter for your operation.
And today, yeah, we're diving deep into a future
piece that's definitely been generating some
serious buzz. Came out of World Dairy Expo. And
this one's got layers. I mean, some surprises
here are gonna make you farmers really rethink
how you've been approaching genetics, maybe cow
longevity too. Okay, let's definitely unpack
this. We're really focusing on what our source
called a fundamental power structure flip. Something
observed right there on September 29th at World
Dairy Expo. Yeah. And look, this isn't just about,
you know, who got the fanciest ribbon. The key
takeaway is stunningly clear. Juniors aren't
just competing anymore. They're dominating the
open shows. It's huge. They're not just the future
of dairy. They're, well, they're the highly efficient,
structurally sound president. And why this matters
right now and for you listening is absolutely
critical. We are, let's be honest, standing knee
deep in a full -blown heifer replacement crisis.
No question. Your ability, the ability of your
operation, doesn't matter if you have 50 cows
or 5 ,000, to select and manage cattle built
to last. Cattle that actually reach their fourth
maybe fifth lactation without falling apart.
Yeah, that is the difference It's the difference
between you know, genuine profit and just a mountain
of debt. That's only getting steeper We're talking
potentially hundred thousand dollar swings here
in long -term efficiency. Exactly and the controversy
tease you mentioned surprises. Well, here it
is The judge himself Mark Ruath actually called
the open show unsuspensible Think about that
word, a professional judge watching the best
breeders in the world. And he says, it's unsuspensible.
Wow. Now this isn't like a slight on the professionals.
It's just a stunning truth about the undeniable
quality coming from the youth entries. We really
need to unpack why that word unsuspensible is
maybe the most damning critique imaginable. It
really is. And we need to talk about why managing
obsolescence is maybe the harsh phrase getting
attached to farms that still refer to these winners
as, you know, just kids. Yeah, that's a direct
punch to the gut, isn't it? For the veteran breeders,
the ones who feel like they've perfected the
art over generations. Right. It basically suggests
they're running on yesterday's diesel while the
juniors are already driving electric. It's a
different game. So let's jump straight into identifying
this problem, this shift. First, maybe let's
quickly define the playing field because the
context is everything here, right? In a show
like World Dairy Expo, you've got the junior
show. That's where the exhibitor has to be under
a certain age. Fine. But the open show. That's
where the real prestige is. That's the big lease.
That's where any farm any company any season
pro Brings their absolute best doesn't matter
who's on the end of the halter. That's the grand
finale Yeah, that's where you put your reputation
on the line. You're up against the multi -generational
outfits the big corporate breeding programs Everyone
and that's exactly where judge Ruith delivered
his verdict The outcome was in his words a little
unsuspenseful. The source notes the juniors didn't
just compete. They quote crushed seasoned professionals
who've been perfecting genetics for I mean generations.
It wasn't even close. Wait, wait, hold on. I
want to sit with that word unsuspenseful for
just a second because that's not just some casual
comment, right? No way. If the show is unsuspenseful,
it implies that the absolute top quality animals,
the ones that were clearly gonna win, they just
stood out immediately. Right from the start.
Yeah, you could see it. The judge could probably
see, even in the preliminary lineup, that the
junior's cattle just possessed this structural
excellence that maybe some of the professional's
entries lacked. Okay, but what specifically do
you think he was seeing that lacked suspense?
Was it just, you know, flash? Pretty cares? No,
absolutely not. Just flash. Couldn't be. It had
to be the functional traits. He was looking for
the evidence of longevity. Things like, utter
attachments that look like they can easily handle
three, four more lactations. Built to last. Exactly.
Mobility scores suggesting they'll move trouble
-free on concrete for years. And crucially, that
width and capacity we'll definitely talk more
about later. Right. You know, in the past, the
difference might have been subtle. A hair's breadth,
maybe, in definition between the top animals.
Nuances. Yeah, nuances. Yeah. Now, it sounds
like the gulf in quality, particularly in those
functional traits, is just visually apparent.
The juniors brought a different type of cow.
A cow really designed for the future, for profitability.
And we have a specific, undeniable example of
this shift right here. Donnybrook M .O. Stevie,
owned by Brittany Taylor and Lila Schuler from
New Glarus. Yep, remember that one. This cow
didn't just win the junior show. She went on
to take reserve grand champion in the open competition.
That's huge. Reserve grand in the open. She beat
professional operations. Operations with multi
-million dollar investments. Decades of experience
baked in. That is a massive, visible transfer
of power. Okay, but let's translate this. In
plain English, for the former listening right
now, how does a teenager's cow actually beat
a professional's big operations best? It's not
just luck like you said earlier. Definitely not
luck. It's got to be a difference of where the
skill is allocated, right? Yeah. For the smaller
farms listening, the implication is clear. High
-cost genetics alone aren't the sole deciding
factor anymore because pretty much everyone can
access the good semen now. Right. The access
is there. So the youth, they're bringing superior
management in the day -to -day care, sure, but
maybe more importantly, superior selection skills.
Skills really honed by understanding and using
genomics. They're finding that diamond in the
rough because they know what data markers to
prioritize for long -term value. And for the
really large operations, the takeaway might be
even harsher, actually. It suggests their internal
breeding programs, the ones they've relied on
for years, might be fundamentally outdated. Ouch.
They might be stuck in a pattern, you know. Prioritizing
traits that win in the short term, maybe extreme
component numbers or just sheer size, while kind
of neglecting the structural integrity you absolutely
need to stay profitable long term. They're chasing
the immediate win, maybe the show ring win, over
the solid economic five -year lifespan of that
cow. Exactly. And you're right. If you're running
a large operation and your multi -million dollar
breeding program is getting beaten for the reserve
grand slot by two young women from New Glarus,
well... You have to look hard in the mirror.
You really do. You have to ask, am I managing
my herd for the future or am I basically just
managing its obsolescence? Because the old way
of doing things isn't just less effective now,
it's actively costing you money, especially,
especially given the current cost of replacement.
That's the key. That unsuspenseful outcome. It
wasn't really about the excitement of the show.
It was a signal that the veterans, some of them
anyway, are falling behind the curve on what
truly matters for profitability today. Yeah,
that structural piece or maybe the lack of it
leads us right into our industry reality check.
We absolutely have to challenge that old narrative,
the everyone knows idea that just having years
of experience automatically means you get the
best results. It's tempting to rely on that.
But yeah, the source argues, and I think the
evidence backs it up, that the genomic revolution
has fundamentally democratized excellence in
dairy cattle selection. OK, I admit, I still
feel a strong pull toward the value of the Experienced
veteran I you know that intuition yeah, but I
have to concede the data the results like we
saw at Expo They're forcing me and probably a
lot of others to adjust our thinking how so what
was it like before? Well think back before genomics
really took hold if you wanted access to the
very very best sire lines You pretty much had
to be a huge operation with really deep pockets,
right? Or geographically lucky or be geographically
close to one of the major breeding centers exactly
Genetics felt almost proprietary. They were expensive
and it took years to prove out a bull through
his daughters. It was slow. So slow. But now
the data itself is forcing us to recalibrate
the entire industry scale. Let's talk about that
big news. The upcoming 2025 genetic base change.
Ah, yes, the base change. Good point. This isn't
just some bureaucratic paperwork exercise. This
change is needed precisely because such significant
genetic progress has been made just in the last
five years. They're driven almost entirely by
genomic selection. Exactly. The pace is just
incredible. OK, we should probably be really
clear about what this base change actually means
for the farmer listening, because it can be confusing.
Good idea. Go ahead. So roughly every five years,
the industry basically recalculates the genetic
average of the entire cow population for key
traits. and then they set that new average to
zero. Right, it's like resetting the baseline.
Exactly. It's done to make sure that the genetic
predictions we rely on, the EPDs, the PTAs, remain
relevant and accurate measures of how an animal
compares to the current average cow. So practically
speaking, what you might see is, you know, you
log into your herd management software next year
and suddenly your favorite cow's PTA for milk
or fat has dropped quite a bit. Yeah, and you
panic. Right. But her actual genetics haven't
changed one bit. It's just that the average cow
she's being compared against, that new zero baseline,
is now genetically much, much better than the
average cow from five years ago. Genomics just
accelerated that timeline dramatically. It made
the old scale, the old measuring stick, obsolete
really quickly. And that is the democratization
in action you were talking about, the very top
genetics, the elite stuff. It's no longer locked
away with just the elite bull studs or the massive
breeding cooperatives? Nope. Access to the best
genetics, or at least the potential for them,
is pretty much universal now. Artificial insemination,
AI, has truly leveled the playing field. It allows
even a small junior exhibitor, maybe working
with just a few cows, to access semen from the
same premier sire as the biggest, fanciest farm
in the state. Look at that premier sire example
they mentioned from the Heffer Show. Spring Hill
James Dean. The semen from a top sire like that
is available to virtually anyone willing to buy
it. Pretty much. If everyone or almost everyone
has access to those top genetics, what actually
makes the difference then? What separates the
grand champion from the animal -placing mid -pack
in the class? Ah, now that's the million -dollar
question, isn't it? It stops being primarily
about just access to the genetics. And it starts
being entirely about management and, crucially,
the ability to select the right animal to breed
in the first place and then develop it properly.
Right. Okay, but this is where I might push back
just a little bit on the pure data argument.
The data is accessible, yes, no doubt. But the
application of that data, how it's used, that
feels different. How so? Well, many veterans,
and look, I'll probably include myself in this
group, we learned eyes first. We learned to judge
structure, frame, locomotion based purely on
what we saw walking around the pen. The visual
assessment. The visual assessment. Then... Often,
kind of reluctantly, we started integrating the
data, the PTA reports, the DPD printouts later
on. Often treating it more like a secondary tool,
you know, something to verify what our eyes already
told us. Okay, that's a really crucial distinction.
Learning data second. The juniors seem different.
What makes them... maybe genomic native, is that
they grew up with the data. They never knew a
world where PTAs and EPDs weren't just a given
part of the evaluation process. It's integrated
from day one for them. Exactly. So they're looking
at the structure, the frame, the feet and legs,
but with an informed genomic expectation already
built into their assessment. They aren't just
looking for confirmation of what they see. They're
looking for the synergy between the data and
the physical animal. Ah, synergy, good word.
They use the data to maybe narrow the field,
identify the high potential animals, and then
they use their eye to confirm that functional
excellence. How well that genetic potential actually
expresses itself physically in the real world.
Okay, that makes sense. And that's why the judge's
specific praise for the winners really validates
this combined approach. Judge Ruath praised the
champions for traits like being milkier, possessing
exceptional strength, and having balance. Those
aren't just random adjectives. No, those are
visual confirmations of genomic progress towards
a cow that's not just productive, but structurally
sound. A cow designed to produce efficiently
for five lactations, not just flash brightly
for two and then burn out. Right. The genomics
provided the underlying potential, absolutely.
But it was the youth's genomic native eye, combined
with their obviously superior management, that
really sealed the deal and made those animals
stand out. It's the blending, maybe, of the art
and the science. Yeah. But the science is increasingly
dictating the potential outcome now. The art
of the eye is almost playing catch -up, confirming
what the rapid genetic progress is delivering.
And that blend, that synergy, connects directly
to the farm bank account. Which brings us to
maybe our third and arguably most critical point
today, following the money. Always got to follow
the money. We absolutely need to connect cow
structure directly to profitability because cow
longevity, keeping cows in the herd longer, has
become arguably the single most important profit
center in dairy right now. Why now? specifically
because of these soaring replacement costs. This
is the hard, cold reality that every single dairy
farmer needs to internalize, like yesterday.
Let's talk real numbers here, not just theory.
The USDA's numbers back in July pegged replacement
heifers at $3 ,010 per head. $3 ,000? Just average.
That's the national average. And we saw other
reports, like in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state.
They saw a staggering 69 % spike year over year.
69 % hitting $2 ,850 on average there Wow and
springers those cows just about rated a cap We're
hearing reports seeing numbers consistently hitting
$4 ,000 in some of the high -demand markets.
It's incredible So think about that you are essentially
taking out a three thousand maybe four thousand
dollars short -term often unavoidable loan Just
to maintain your current herd size every single
time. You have to call a cow early. It's a huge
cash drain If you're replacing, say, 35 % of
your herd annually, mostly due to structural
failure, lameness, infertility issues, that replacement
cost is eating into your marginal profit faster
than almost anything else on the farm. And that
is precisely what makes the value of a longer
-lived cow absolutely undeniable right now. Our
source material highlights research showing that
extending a cow's productive life by just one
single lactation. Just one more. Just one more.
Can reduce your overall replacement needs by
about 25%. 25%. Think about what a 25 % reduction
in buying replacements means when those animals
cost three, maybe $4 ,000 each. That is serious,
serious money saved. It drops right to the bottom
line. It's arguably the highest value return
on investment you can make on the farm today.
Honestly, it might be more valuable than chasing
that extra 2 % bump in feed efficiency, which
often requires a massive capital investment in
new mixers or technology. Good point. Extending
longevity is an immediate, verifiable cost saving.
It directly helps mitigate the volatility we
see in milk prices and feed costs. But hang on,
I have to maybe challenge this narrative just
slightly. It's easy for us to sit here and say,
oh, just breed for five lactations. Right. Okay,
fair enough. What's the challenge? For the average
small or maybe medium -sized farmer listening,
actually achieving that fifth lactation isn't
solely about genetics. It's also about management
resources. Can they really afford the specialized
nutrition needed for older cows? The constant
observation. The preventative care required to
keep a cow healthy and productive for five plus
lactations. So the potential cost of keeping
her. Yeah. I mean, if a young, genetically superior
cow is also somehow high maintenance, maybe prone
to issues if not managed perfectly, the smaller
operation might actually break even sooner financially
by just replacing her early rather than pouring
limited resources into stretching her life another
year or two. Does that make sense? That's a fair
counterpoint, absolutely. The resource constraint
is real, but I think what the winning juniors
at Expo are demonstrating is that the type of
cow they are selecting actually minimizes that
potential resource burden. They aren't selecting
fragile, high -maintenance animals that require
constant, intensive intervention just to survive.
They're selecting robust, structurally sound
animals from the get -go. Okay. Therefore, the
investment in the right genetics... the genetics
that ensure longevity through structural soundness
becomes a form of crucial risk mitigation. You're
investing maybe $50 in the right kind of semen
today to avoid a practically guaranteed $3 ,000
penalty in 36 months when the wrong kind of cow
inevitably breaks down. So the high quality longevity
genetics actually reduce the management overhead
required later on because the cow is just physically
built better to handle the stress. Exactly. She's
less likely to need that intervention because
her foundation is solid okay okay let's try to
do the math then just to make this really tangible
for everyone listening let's assume like the
numbers say a replacement costs $3 ,000 and let's
say an average cow produces 30 ,000 pounds of
milk per lactation pretty standard okay standard
numbers so if that cow only lasts two lactations
before she's called maybe lameness maybe utter
breakdown she produces a lifetime total of 60
,000 pounds of milk Right, so that $3 ,000 replacement
cost has to be amortized, spread out, over just
60 ,000 pounds of milk, if you calculate that
out, Leslie. 3 ,000 divided by 60 ,000, that
comes out to five cents per pound of milk. $5
.00, five pounds. Or how we usually think about
it, $5 .00 per hundredweight. $5 .00 send a view,
too. $5 .00 per hundredweight. That's the hidden
replacement cost burden riding on every single
gallon that short -lived cow produces. It's baked
in. Now, contrast that. Take the cow selected
by the junior exhibitor, the one bred specifically
for structural excellence and longevity. Let's
say she lasts the five lactations we're aiming
for. Okay, five lactations at 30 ,000 pounds
each. That's 150 ,000 pounds of lifetime milk
production. Same $3 ,000 initial replacement
cost, but now it's amortized over 150 ,000 pounds.
Right. So 3 ,000 divided by 150 ,000, that's
two cents per pound of milk, .02 pounds. Or $2
per hundred weight, $2 cent dubbidi. Wow! Okay,
the difference is stark when you lay it out like
that. It's $3 per 100 weight. $5 in W minus $2
in WT. $3 per 100 weight. That difference is
purely profit retention. money kept in your pocket,
simply gained through achieving longevity, that's
how much the wrong kind of genetics, the ones
leading to early culling, are actively costing
you every single day. That's a powerful number.
And this ties back directly to those specific
structural traits the judge, Mark Ruith, was
calling out. Remember the Guernsey champion he
praised, Cadence Fam's lovely? Yeah, Cadence
Farm. He specifically focused on her width to
the chest floor. Now why is that specific seemingly
minor physical trait so absolutely crucial for
offsetting that three dollars in gravity penalty
we just calculated? Because it's literally the
foundation of the economic engine that is the
dairy cow within the chest floor. It typically
indicates greater internal capacity, more room
for the heart and lungs to function efficiently.
Right. The powerhouse. Exactly. That's essential
for moving the massive volume of blood flow required
to produce 100 plus pounds of milk per day without
the system breaking down. It also correlates
strongly with overall robustness, resistance
to metabolic issues, things like ketosis, digestive
problems. Things that take cows out early. Things
that take cows out early. Yeah. A narrow -chested,
sharply angled cow might look elegant, maybe
even win some shows based on style points, but
she often hits a metabolic wall. She just can't
sustain high production and breaks down physically
by the third lactation. So she costs you that
$5 an hour. Precisely. The cows winning in Madison,
the ones these juniors are clearly selecting
for, they are the ones physically built to handle
the physiological stress of the fourth and fifth
lactation. They're the ones turning that potential
$5 cent rate replacement burden into a much more
profitable $2 cent rate success story. So these
winning animals, they're not just pretty show
cattle standing there looking good. They are
functionally excellent economic machines. They're
designed specifically to defer that $3 ,000 debt
penalty for as long as possible. That's a great
way to put it. And the farms investing in these
juniors supporting them, they are absolutely,
as the source said, not doing charity work. They're
building their future. They're building it by
managing proactively for longevity instead of
reactively managing for early obsolescence. Yeah.
And that takes us right into looking at some
specific case studies from the show, examples
that really show exactly what kind of maybe integrated
structure it takes to execute this new model
successfully. That grunzi sweep you mentioned,
Cadence Fames Lovely from Cadence Farm, it provides
the perfect blueprint, doesn't it, for this new
kind of holistic approach. It really does. Achieving
a clean sweep like that, grand champion? Okay,
fine. but also best bred and owned, also best
udder, and the total performance winner. You
just cannot fake that kind of success. No way.
That requires everything firing on all cylinders.
The selection strategy has to be right, the breeding
decision spot on, and the superior daily management,
the feeding, the care. It all has to operate
at a peak level to bring it together. It confirms
the genomic potential is there, but also that
it was realized visually and functionally. Think
about what that clean sweep really signifies.
To win best bred and owned means your internal
genetics program is sound. You've selected the
right animals, made the right matings on your
own farm. Right, homegrown success. But to also
take best udder and total performance. That speaks
volumes about the daily care, the feeding program,
the conditioning, the overall animal husbandry.
It demonstrates a true 360 degree approach to
dairy farming. It means the junior exhibitor
didn't just, you know, go out and buy the best
cow they could find. They created and managed
the best cow. There's a huge difference. Huge
difference. And, you know, while we saw some
powerful genetics coming in from other regions,
like that Jersey Heifer winner. cash in video,
stop and stare ET coming all the way from California.
Yeah, two layer genetics taking the open and
junior champion titles shows that geographic
competition for the top stuff is still fierce.
Absolutely fierce. But importantly, the homegrown
Midwest genetics didn't just roll over and play
dead. You had the Miller's Joel King majesty
securing the junior champion bread and owned
award in that same Jersey show. Good point. Staying
competitive locally. It demonstrates that the
specific, focused selection strategy, prioritizing
those key functional traits, is what truly matters
now. Maybe more than just relying on a famous
regional pedigree, or a big name. So the common
thread isn't the state name on the registration
paper? No. The common thread is the dedication
to those specific structural traits we keep talking
about. The utter cleft, the foot angle, the mobility,
that crucial chest capacity. regardless of what
state the cow happened to be bred in. The competition
now seems based much more on achieving functional
excellence, not just historical brand recognition.
Okay, and let's analyze that Ayrshire example
the source mentioned. Bricker Farms are Cadillac
ET from Bricker Farms. Oh yeah, the Bricker family.
The source makes a really interesting point here.
This wasn't just a win for one kid showing a
great cow. This operation involves three generations
working together. That's right. Todd and Lindsay,
the parents, working closely with their kids,
Allison, Lacey, and Kinsley. Plus they have partners
involved too. That feels like a really successful
model, not just for showing, but maybe for industry
succession overall. It's something maybe every
farm should study closely. I agree. It's a family
and partner structure that's clearly leveraging
multi -generational knowledge effectively. You've
got the youth. who are likely bringing that genomic
native selection skill we talk about, that ability
to interpret the data and apply the eye simultaneously,
maybe more intuitively. Right, the fresh perspective,
the data comfort. And then you have the veterans,
the parents, maybe the partners, providing the
essential infrastructure, the resources, the
financial backing, but also that deep institutional
knowledge about what actually works and what
doesn't, under their specific farm conditions,
their management style. It sounds like the perfect
synergy, doesn't it? The veterans provide the
wisdom, maybe the guardrails, to avoid costly
pitfalls based on years of experience. Yeah,
we tried that in 98 and it didn't work. Exactly.
And the youth bring the cutting edge selection
skills, the comfort with new technologies, the
approaches that maybe the older generation might
be a bit slower or more hesitant to adopt fully.
It means the whole operation isn't stuck in the
mud repeating old patterns. They're actively
moving forward, making faster progress by using
the combined knowledge and skills of the entire
team. It's collaboration. That partnership model
is so key. And it brings us perfectly into thinking
about the future implications of this whole trend
we're seeing. We really need to shift our focus,
maybe just for a bit, away from just the purple
ribbons and the grand champion banners. As exciting
as those are. As exciting as they are. And dive
deeper into the judging contests. Because you
could argue they are equally important, maybe
even more important, than the show ring wins
when we think about the long -term future health
of the dairy industry. Oh, absolutely. I couldn't
agree more. That judging pavilion on Sunday at
Expo, that's where the real future herd managers,
the future genetic decision makers, were being
actively trained and rigorously tested. If the
$3 ,000 replacement heifer is the problem we
keep highlighting, then the kids competing in
those collegiate judging contests, they are a
huge part of the solution. Look at the sheer
dominance demonstrated by the University of Minnesota
in the intercollegiate contest. They three -peated.
They won it for the third year in a row, with
a massive score of 2 ,505. Incredible consistency.
And they weren't just guessing lucky. They demonstrated
superior, measurable knowledge across the board.
And importantly, their real strength was clearly
in giving oral reasons. They took top honors
there too, with 821 points just on reasons. Okay,
we probably need to explain quickly what giving
oral reasons actually entails in a judging contest
and why you'd call it a multi -million dollar
skill set because it's not just about talking
pretty. Not at all. Go for it. It's intense.
It's rapid. It's highly structured and it requires
defensible critical thinking under pressure.
A student has maybe 15 minutes to look closely
at a class of four animals they've never seen
before. They have to rank them first to fourth.
Then, they have to stand up in front of an expert
judge, often with spectators watching, and articulate,
using very specific technical dairy terminology,
exactly why they placed the class the way they
did, why the first cow beats the second, why
the second beats the third, and crucially, why
the cow they placed last is inferior to the others.
And they have to connect it back to function,
right? That's the key. They have to connect their
visual assessment directly to economic productivity
and longevity traits. It's about justifying their
decisions based on factors that impact a farm's
bottom line. So could you maybe give an example,
like imagine a student giving a strong oral reason
about a class of Holsteins. What might that sound
like? OK, sure. A really good set of reasons
might sound something like this. Sir, I place
this class of aged Holsteins 1, 2, 3, 4. I grant
the advantage in overall dariness to my second
place cow, but I placed 1 over 2, primarily due
to her distinct advantage in structural integrity,
particularly in her mammary system and feet and
legs. The winning cow exhibits a higher, wider
rear udder attachment and a stronger fore udder
attachment. indicating greater longevity potential.
Furthermore, she tracks straighter on her rear
legs with less hock and more depth of heel, suggesting
superior mobility and a lower risk of lameness
compared to two. Okay, comparing directly. Now,
moving to my middle pair, I place two over three,
faulting three and placing her third due to her
comparative lack of width throughout, particularly
her narrower chest floor and lack of spring of
rib. While 3 may be taller, 2 possesses the superior
body capacity and functional width, essential
for sustaining high production over multiple
lactations and minimizing metabolic risk. Connecting
width to function again. Finally, while acknowledging
the length of body of my third -place cow, I
placed her over 4, leaving 4 in fourth place
due to her weaker loin, lower pins, and less
desirable slope from hooks to pins, indicating
structural weakness is likely to shorten her
productive life. Therefore, I place this class
of Holstein HCALS 1234. Wow. That is the language
of a future farm manager who fundamentally understands
risk mitigation, structural soundness, and economics.
Not just, I liked one better. Exactly. When students
can articulate why one cow beats another under
that kind of pressure, justifying it with economically
relevant traits, they're developing skills worth
real money to any dairy operation. five or ten
years. Because they're not just picking pretty
animals, they're justifying the potential return
on investment based on predictable longevity.
And look at the post -secondary example from
SU on Cobble Scale. They were even more dominant
in their division. They swept absolutely everything.
Total sweep. It just demonstrates that these
students are already thinking like they own the
farm. That high individual score, Connor McNeil
getting 769 points, that isn't just a high number.
It reflects a deep applied understanding of dairy
management, selection principles, and economics
that is basically ready for immediate deployment
on a commercial dairy tomorrow. And the depth
across the board, even below the top winners,
is remarkable too. You mentioned the 4 -H contest,
where only five points separated the top teams,
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Just five points. It
shows that these foundational skills, the ability
to use the eye effectively and integrate the
data, are being taught widely and effectively
across the country in these youth programs. These
are the future herd managers, the future geneticists,
the future nutritionists cutting their teeth
right now in these competitions. Absolutely.
And so here's the direct farm level implication
for you listening. If you aren't actively partnering
with, supporting, or engaging with these youth
programs, your local 4 -H club, the FFA chapter,
or maybe sponsoring a collegiate gending team,
you are missing out. Big time. You are losing
out on connecting with your future labor pool,
your future management palette. These young people
who understand how to merge genomics and visual
appraisal, they are arguably your most valuable
potential resource moving forward. Far more valuable
than any shiny new piece of equipment you might
buy. You're essentially investing in future brain
power and skill sets that will prevent costly
errors down the line. To still view supporting
these programs as just optional charity work
or a nice thing to do. Honestly, in the current
economic environment, that feels like borderline
economic malpractice. Agreed 100%, which takes
us nicely into our contrarian take for today.
This challenges that popular, maybe comfortable
industry narrative that high milk prices are
the magic bullet that solves everything. Yeah,
everyone loves a high milk price, obviously.
Of course. Everyone's focused on the margin right
now, the milk check. Yeah. But the real underlying
structural issue, as our source material pointed
out, is the looming and actually already present
shortage of cattle, specifically replacement
heifers. High milk prices are great, fantastic
even. But if you physically don't have enough
cows, especially enough good cows, to fill your
barn and take it advantage of those prices, you
simply can't capitalize fully. And the market
data strongly supports this view. This isn't
just speculation. Cobank research recently indicated
that national heifer inventories could realistically
decline by another 800 ,000 head. 800 ,000, that's
a massive number. Before we even start seeing
any kind of meaningful recovery, which they don't
project until maybe 2027 at the earliest, we
are facing a multi -year supply squeeze. on the
actual cattle side of the equation, and that
is going to fundamentally reshave the market
dynamics. And here's the kicker, the part the
optimists maybe aren't talking enough about.
What's that? That shortage, that decline in heifer
numbers, it's happening at the exact same time
that processing capacity is expanding. Massively
expand right that 10 billion dollar figure for
new processing facilities coming online over
the next few years Demanding more milk you got
it this combination a shrinking national herd
colliding with significantly expanding processing
capacity Creates this monumental tension in the
market It's unavoidable demand for milk is being
set up to soar driven by this new capacity But
the fundamental capacity of the national herd
to produce that milk Will be constrained by the
simple lack of replacement heifers entering the
system which means which means Every farm is
going to be fighting even harder for quality
replacements just to maintain let alone grow
their herds and that intense competition is inevitably
going to push that already high $3 ,000 average
price for heifers even higher. It's basic supply
and demand Okay, so therefore, the producers
who can successfully navigate this coming shortage
while maintaining or even increasing the quality
of their herd. Meaning, the producers who are
actively breeding for longevity right now, the
ones following the blueprint, the juniors are
demonstrating with their focus on structural
selection. Those producers. They are going to
be in the driver's seat. They will practically
be able to write their own ticket. They'll be
the ones who can reliably supply the necessary
volume of high quality milk to these expanding
processors without constantly crashing their
farm budget buying outrageously expensive replacements.
So the ability to reduce your herds replacement
rate from say a typical 35 % down to maybe 25
% or even lower simply because your cows are
lasting that crucial extra lactation or two.
That's not just good management anymore. Yeah.
In this coming environment, it becomes a powerful
strategic advantage. It literally insulates your
farm from the worst effects of this predicted
supply squeeze and the associated rising heifer
costs. It's like building an economic moat around
your operation. So the core message coming out
of World Dairy Expo, then, when you connect the
dots between the show ring, the judging contest
and the market economics, it's intensely economic
and structural, isn't it? Absolutely. The industry
desperately needs quality cows, cows that last
in order to fill all that new processing capacity
coming online. And the juniors, by consistently
prioritizing structural excellence, things like
width of the chest floor, utter quality, sound
feet and legs, they have. inadvertently revealed
the blueprint for the only kind of cow that really
makes economic sense in the face of this coming
supply squeeze. It's a revolution, really. But
it's one driven entirely by the simple, stark
necessity of avoiding that crushing $3 ,000 plus
replacement penalty. And it's arguably the most
profitable kind of revolution a farmer could
ask for. Couldn't agree more. Hashtag actionable
insights segment. All right. So the farmer listening
just finished up morning milking. Maybe they're
driving to the feed store right now thinking
about all this. We've hit them with a deep dive
on genomics, judging, longevity, market economics.
Let's boil it down. What are the three most actionable
things they absolutely need to take away from
this discussion? Okay, three things. First, immediate
action. And I mean, like, this week when you're
looking at sire prus for your next breeding decisions.
Re -evaluate longevity traits. Okay, specifically,
how should they do that? What should they look
for? Stop, or at least significantly deprioritize,
chasing those marginal short -term spikes in
production traits alone. Immediately prioritize
structural traits known to impact longevity.
Look hard at mobility scores, utter composite
traits, particularly utter depth and attachments,
and yes, critically, that width to the chest
floor or overall body capacity that Judge Ruth
specifically called out. Why the urgency? because
longevity driven by structure is a higher immediate
profit center right now than squeezing out a
few marginal extra pounds of milk due to those
replacement costs soaring past $3 ,000 per head.
If your cow leaves the herd early because her
structure failed, that tiny bit of extra milk
she gave didn't matter one bit. Because you just
triggered that massive five dollars or replacement
cost burden we calculated. Yeah structural integrity
is risk mitigation. Got it Prioritize structure
as immediate risk mitigation. Okay What about
a medium term strategy something for the next
say three to six months medium term strategy?
invest actively in youth partnerships, and I
mean truly invest, not just donate 50 bucks at
the fair auction. Stop viewing your support for
4 -H or FFA or collegiate teams as just charity
or some feel -good community obligation. How
should they view it instead? Look at it strategically
as investing in the single most valuable future
labor and management pipeline available to the
dairy industry right now. You need to actively
look for meaningful ways to mentor, maybe partner
with on a project effort, or even plan to hire
these genomic native young people who intuitively
understand how to blend data and structure simultaneously.
Because they bring skills. They bring a skill
set that can instantly start reducing your farm's
costly breeding errors and improve your herd's
longevity potential. It's an investment in future
profitability. Okay, investing in the future
brain power of the farm makes sense. Finally,
what's the long -term positioning? Thinking ahead
for the next one to two years, especially with
that supply squeeze looming. Long -term positioning.
Systematically reduce replacement dependency.
Your primary strategic goal over the next couple
of years must be to significantly reduce your
herd's overall replacement rate, primarily by
extending the productive life of the cows you
already have. How achievable is that? Well, remember
the research. Extending productive life by just
one single lactation, on average, can cut your
replacement needs by a whopping 25%. That needs
to be the target. This is likely the only reliable
strategy required to successfully navigate the
predicted 800 ,000 head decline in national heifer
inventory before we see any potential recovery
around 2027. So the less reliant you are on the
external market. Exactly. The fewer replacements
you absolutely need to buy from the outside market,
the more insulated your farm's finances will
be from that volatile, almost certainly soaring
heifer market price. It's about building resilience.
OK, let me try to sum that up. The big message
is The youth are showing the entire industry
that the truly economic cow of the future is
structurally sound, built for longevity. And
if you, the farmer listening, are not actively
following that blueprint, meaning prioritizing
structure and longevity right alongside production
in your breeding and management decisions, you
are effectively choosing to pay a $3 ,000 penalty
or more every single time you're forced to call
a cow earlier than you should have. That's it
in a nutshell. Couldn't have said it better.
This has been another deep dive from the Bull
Vine Podcast. If this kind of no BS analysis
helps your operations stay ahead of the curve,
make sure you head over to www .thebullvine .com.
We've got tons more articles there that tell
you what's really happening in dairy. And seriously,
subscribe to the show wherever you get your audio
deep dives. We're actually releasing new analysis
like this twice weekly now, putting out more
content. And trust me, you definitely don't want
to miss what we've got coming up next week. We're
going to dig into the true costs and some really
unexpected regulatory hurdles facing that massive
$10 billion wave of new processing capacity that's
supposed to be coming online. It's definitely
not as simple as just building.