Breaking free from the chains of the past Where
truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law
waiting on some printed page We're charting new
ground in the digital age From genomic codes
to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold
them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight
we're sparking Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast,
where we cut through the noise to bring you the
genetic insights that actually matter to your
operation's bottom line. I'm your host, and today
we're diving deep into what might be the most
significant genetic evaluation shakeup we've
seen in years. The August 2025 proofs just dropped,
and frankly, some of these ranking changes should
have every progressive breeder paying attention.
We're talking about bulls. losing over 100 points
overnight, proven sires delivering $2 ,400 per
cow advantages, and a fundamental shift happening
between genomic promises and economic reality.
From Canada's dramatic leadership change to Italy's
genomic volatility that should concern everyone,
today's episode breaks down what these evaluations
really mean for your breeding strategy. Whether
you're running 50 cows or 5000, The trends we're
seeing across the US, Canada, UK, Germany, and
Italy are reshaping how smart producers approach
genetic selection. And trust me, the old playbook
of chasing the highest TPI scores, that might
be costing you serious money. Let's dive in.
We're talking about the August 2025 genetic evaluations,
and frankly, they've delivered some of the most
dramatic ranking reshuffles we've witnessed in
years. Oh, absolutely. Just look at Stanton's
remover, PP. Making a spectacular leap from number
seven to number one in Canada. It's not just
a shakeup. It's a fundamental question mark,
I think, over the very stability of genomic predictions.
So the big tension right now is, are genomic
promises truly delivering on their hype? Or is
that tried and true reliability of proven sires
making a strong comeback? Yeah, that's really
the core issue, isn't it? And it's something
I've been watching closely for, oh, over two
decades now. Believe me, these kinds of ranking
shifts where a top bull can lose over 100 points
in a single evil. Unthinkable. Almost. It would
have been unthinkable just a few years ago. And
the implications for your breeding program, for
your farm's financial health are, well, they're
truly massive. What's really caught my attention
isn't just the new leaders, you know. as impressive
as some of them are. It's this escalating gap,
this dance between what genomics promise us through
predictions and what proven bulls actually deliver
in the real world. That real world performance.
Exactly. And honestly, some of the volatility
we're seeing should prompt every producer to
pause and consider if they're becoming perhaps
a bit too aggressive with unproven genetics.
It's definitely a reality check for the industry.
That volatility really hits home when you look
at the numbers. The article has some pretty stark
examples, doesn't it? It does. Take the Italian
case study, for instance. Cookie cutter Hadley
ET, a bull that was once number two genomic.
Right at the top. Dropped to number 10, losing
a staggering 102 points in one single evaluation
cycle. One cycle. That's not just a minor adjustment.
For a producer, that's a complete reversal of
fortune, a complete shift in the projected value
of his offspring. it's an astronomical shift
really and for any producer who had invested
heavily in hadley et perhaps buying a lot of
semen or you know banking on his future daughter
planning their whole herd around it potentially
it's a direct and immediate hit to their confidence
and potentially their financial projections to
lose 102 points in one go from a top tier position
is almost unprecedented in terms of its magnitude
wow it highlights the inherent risk when you're
dealing with predictions that don't yet have
that real -world data to fully back them up.
This isn't just about a number on a page. It's
about the breeding decisions made on the farm,
the capital spent on semen. My heifer's already
born. Exactly. The future performance of heifels
that were born based on that earlier, higher
prediction. It's a stark reminder that while
genomics offer speed, they can also carry significant
risk if not approached, you know, strategically.
So the contrast with Chrysalis is undeniable.
In sharp contrast, you have the proven sire,
ZFC, Chrysalis RF, who actually gained points.
Gained 29 points. And solidified his number one
position in Italy. The article points out he
has thousands of daughters actually milking in
real barns, dealing with real feed costs and
real heat stress. And that's the key phrase right
there. That's a powerful statement about the
value of real world validation, isn't it? For
a farmer, that's where the rubber meets the road.
It absolutely is. Chrysalis is the perfect counter
-narrative to Hadley ET's dramatic fall. When
you have a bull with thousands of milking daughters,
that data isn't speculative, it's concrete, it's
validated, it's, well, it's reliable. You know
what you're getting. Exactly. Those daughters
are experiencing the same daily challenges your
cows are, the same feed costs, the same environmental
stressors, the same management systems. So when
a proven sire like Chrysalis gains points and
strengthens his position, it speaks to an undeniable
level of reliability and consistent performance
under actual farm conditions. That's the kind
of stability that truly pays dividends over the
long term, reducing your risk in a volatile market.
It's the difference between, say, a highly accurate
weather forecast for tomorrow, which you can
plan your day around, and a speculative forecast
for next year. You know, you might hope for the
best, but you wouldn't bet your entire farm on
it. And that analogy really clarifies the risk.
Moving over to Germany, the article highlights
another interesting gap. Genomic leaders Evenstar
and Pennywise both hit RZG 164. Top of the charts.
Now, RZG, for those unfamiliar, is Germany's
total merit index, designed to balance production
with crucial functional treats. That 164 RZG
is a full 17 -point advantage over the proven
leader, Zivit, at RZG 147. That's a big gap.
A huge gap. The article then adds that critical
phrase, if the predictions hold true, noting
that this gap represents serious money in lifetime
profit. What kind of serious money are we talking
about here and how does a producer... weigh that
potential against a proven track record. Well,
that phrase, if the predictions hold true, is
really the crux of the matter in Germany and,
well, everywhere genomics are used, frankly.
On paper, a 17 -point RZG advantage is incredibly
significant. Huge. For a typical herd, that could
translate to hundreds, even thousands of dollars
per cow in lifetime profitability. We're talking
about more milk, yes, but also improved health,
better fertility, greater longevity, all traits
that directly impact your bottom line. The whole
package. Right. However, the Italian experience
with Hadley ET serves as a stark reminder that
those genomic predictions, while powerful and
often accurate, are still predictions. Germany's
breeding program is world -class, no doubt about
it. But even there, you have to weigh the potential
upside of those high genomic numbers against
the proven, reliable performance of a bull like
Zivit, who is already demonstrating his worth
through actual daughters. It's a gamble, isn't
it? It's a high -stakes gamble, potentially,
for serious money. But a gamble nonetheless.
You have to ask yourself, how much risk are you
willing to take on for that potential gain? But
then we look at the UK, and it almost seems like
an exception to this rule of genomic volatility.
It does, yeah. Marco Winters from AHDB is quoted
saying, The six new graduates in the top 10 already
have around 7 ,000 heifers registered in UK milk
-recorded herds, with some now milking. Their
proven high PIL values deviate by just one point
on average from their earlier genomic predictions.
Just one point. That's incredible. Now, POI,
the Profit Lifetime Index, is the UK's index
for estimated lifetime profit. That's a massive
vote of confidence for genomics, isn't it? What's
going on in the UK that sets them apart? It absolutely
is an incredible success story, and it provides
such a strong counterpoint to the volatility
we just discussed in Italy. When you have 7 ,000
heifers across numerous milk -recorded herds,
some already milking, validating their sire's
genomic predictions with only a one -point deviation
on average in PIPLI. Wow. That's accuracy. That's
incredibly powerful. It signifies an extremely
high level of accuracy and predictability in
their genomic evaluation system for those specific
traits. It suggests that factors like robust
data collection, a well -structured genomic reference
population, and perhaps the specific traits emphasized
in their PLI are contributing to this remarkable
consistency. So UK breeders can feel pretty good
about using those young sires. Well, yeah, for
breeders in the UK, this gives them a much higher
degree of confidence in adopting those genomic
young sires early, knowing that the real world
performance is highly likely to closely mirror
the initial predictions. This isn't just good
news. It's groundbreaking for accelerating genetic
progress with significantly reduced risk. It
truly shows what's possible when genomics are
done right. So if you're a farmer trying to make
breeding decisions right now. Yeah. How do you
balance this pursuit of rapid genetic progress
that genomics promise with the fundamental need
for reliability and stability that proven sires
offer? It feels like you're walking a tightrope
trying to get the most advanced genetics without...
you know falling into a financial hole you are
absolutely it's a constant balancing act the
key is recognizing that genomic and proven aren't
mutually exclusive categories you have to choose
between they're both powerful tools in your breeding
toolbox the uk example shows that genomics can
be incredibly accurate and reliable offering
a pathway to faster genetic gain but the italian
situation reminds us that they are not always
accurate and that volatility carries real financial
exposure so what's the approach then For a producer,
this means you need to adopt a portfolio approach,
which we'll definitely dive into more later.
You can't just chase the highest genomic numbers
blindly. You need to look at the reliability
percentage of those genomic predictions, look
at the depth of the pedigree, and critically
evaluate the specific market you're operating
in. Gotcha. If you're in a market where the genomic
validation is strong, like the UK seems to be,
perhaps you can be more aggressive. But in others,
maybe a more conservative, balanced approach
makes much more sense. It's about being progressive
without being reckless. It's about being smart
with your genetic investments, just like any
other investment on your farm. That's a crucial
distinction. Now let's transition across the
pond to North America, because the article notes
how economic reality is truly driving genetic
choices there, especially in the U .S. market.
The focus seems to be shifting. And I get the
sense it's all about profitability. Indeed, it
is. Very much so. When we talk about the U .S.
market, it's easy for producers to get caught
up in the TPI numbers. TPI, or Total Performance
Index, right? The Holstein Association USA's
Index for Genetic Merit, a broad composite. Sure,
everyone knows TPI. Exactly. For instance, Beyond
High Level ET might claim the number one genomic
spot at plus 3 or 539 TPI. But, as the article
points out, that's not the whole story. While
TTI is important for genetic merit, especially
maybe for breeding stock, it doesn't always directly
translate to profitability for the commercial
producer. Okay, so what's the better measure
then? The real conversation, especially with
the economic pressures farmers are facing in
2025, needs to be about net merit and what that
means for your milk check, because that's where
the rubber meets the road for daily operations.
So tell us more about this economic domination
by genosaurs in the U .S. net merit rankings.
The article says it's a complete takeover. It
really is quite something. With genosaurus retrospective
leading at an incredible plus 1317 NMA, followed
closely by a stablemate's genosaurus endurance
deep at plus 1233 NM and genosaurus purdy at
plus 1222 NMLO. Why is this so significant? And
what exactly does net merit signify for a dairy
producer dealing with the realities of 2025?
This is a seismic shift, truly a defining moment
in U .S. dairy genetics. Net merit, or deninima,
is an economic index that estimates the lifetime
profitability of a cow. It's incredibly comprehensive,
taking into account a broad range of economically
important traits. Not just milk. Not just milk.
It includes production, component yields, fat
and protein, health, fertility, productive life,
and even things like body size. It then weights
them by their actual economic value to the producer,
factoring in things like feed costs, milk prices,
replacement costs. So tell me about the bottom
line. Precisely. So when Genisaurus takes the
top three spots in Net Merit, It's not just about
high production. It signals a strategic and systematic
breeding for traits that actually make money,
rather than simply chasing TPI points that might
look good on paper but don't always translate
into real world profitability. Especially with
feed costs. Exactly. With feed costs being what
they are in 2025, which the article emphasizes
is non -negotiable, selecting for profitability
through net merit is absolutely critical. It's
about breeding for efficiency and resilience,
ensuring that every cow can That's the goal.
For a producer, this means fewer surprises on
the expense side and more consistent income.
And on the proven side in the U .S., SDG Cap
Garza EAT is leading at plus 3488 TTI with an
impressive 98 % reliability. Rock solid reliability.
The article highlights his balanced profile,
plus 146 pounds fat, plus 53 pounds protein,
and plus 3 .7 productive life, PL. For a producer,
how does that combination of fat, protein, and
PL translate into actual profitability, especially
when milk prices or feed costs start to fluctuate?
Garza is a textbook example of a proven sire
that offers true stability and profitability
in a volatile market. The 98 % reliability means
there's very little guesswork involved. His performance
is validated by a huge number of daughters already
in production. Proven performance. Proven. And
his balance is key. High fat. plus 146 pounds
in protein, plus 53 pounds, ensure getting paid
for components, which is increasingly important
in many milk markets where premiums are tied
to solids, not just volume. Right, that impacts
the milk check directly. Directly, making each
pound of milk more valuable. Plus, that plus
3 .7 productive life, PL, is crucial for longevity.
In practical terms, it means his daughters are
expected to stay in the herd almost four months
longer than average. And that saves on replacement
costs. Dramatically. When you combine strong,
component -rich production with cows that stay
in the herd longer and have fewer health issues,
you dramatically reduce your replacement costs
and veterinary bills, improving overall efficiency.
These are the traits that act as a financial
buffer when feed prices are high or milk prices
are volatile. They provide consistent, reliable
income and reduce expenses, helping you weather
those economic storms. Moving north to Canada,
the article describes the remover revolution.
Stanton's remover PP made this spectacular jump
from number 7 to number 1 in August. Quite the
jump. Backed by 234 daughters across 32 hertz.
That's real -world validation proving his genomic
predictions. How is Remover's balanced profile
specifically addressing the needs of Canadian
producers, especially with those rapidly rising
replacement costs? Remover Search No. 1 in Canada
is a fantastic story of genomic prediction meeting
real -world validation. The 234 daughters across
32 herds aren't just a number. They represent
diverse management systems and environments from
B .C. to Quebec, right? Right across the country.
This means his performance is robust and repeatable
under varying conditions, giving Canadian producers
high confidence. His balanced profile is exactly
what Canadian producers need right now. With
replacement costs climbing rapidly, we're talking...
thousands of dollars to raise or buy a new heifer.
Yeah, it's getting serious. Producers need cows
that are durable and productive for multiple
lactations. Remover offers solid production numbers,
but critically, he brings those essential durability
traits. Strong feet and legs, good udders, and
overall conformation that allows cows to withstand
the rigors of modern dairy farming, even in Canada's
diverse climates. So fewer problems, cows last
longer. Exactly. This translates directly into
fewer herd health issues, fewer forced calls,
and cows staying in the herd longer, which directly
reduces those increasingly painful replacement
costs. For a producer, it's about investing in
a cow that will pay you back year after year.
And on the genomic young sire front in Canada,
OCD Milan ET leads at plus 4118 GPA LPI. LPI,
for those listening, is Canada's Livestock Performance
Index, a multi -trade index for lifetime profitability.
Milan has impressive numbers like plus 638 milk,
plus 108 fat, plus robust type, plus 10 mammary
system, plus 6 feet and legs. Really strong numbers
there. How does this combination of high production
and structural soundness align with what the
Canadian industry is selecting for, particularly
given its diverse climate and management challenges?
Milan is incredibly exciting for the genomic
category in Canada. His combination of high production,
especially in components with that exceptional
plus 108 fat, alongside truly robust type traits
like a plus 10 mammary system and plus six fetal
eggs is, well, it's. Almost the ideal package
for the Canadian industry. Why is that type so
important in Canada? Well, Canada has a wide
range of climates, right? From harsh winters
that demand resilient animals to hot, humid summers
and diverse management systems, from large free
stalls to smaller tie stalls. Cattle bred with
strong structural soundness and functional type
can withstand these varied conditions better.
Makes sense. Fewer issues. They have fewer lameness
issues because of strong feet and legs, fewer
mastitis problems due to superior udders, and
they simply last longer in the herd. This translates
directly into more profitable cows that require
less intervention and are more resilient to environmental
and management stressors. He's the type of bull
that delivers on both ends, making abundant,
valuable milk and lasting in the herd to pay
dividends over time. Less headaches, more profit.
That's it. For a farmer, it means less headaches
and more profit. So whether you're in the U .S.
or Canada, how do these market -specific trends
and economic priorities impact a listener's breeding
goals? How should they consider these differing
indices when making their crucial breeding decisions?
You really need to intimately understand what
drives profitability in your specific operation,
because one size definitely does not fit all.
It's not plug and play. For example. If you're
in the U .S. and selling into a market that heavily
penalizes somatic cell count or rewards fat and
protein significantly, then net merit is your
absolute best friend. It's specifically designed
to align with those economic realities. If you're
in Canada, facing high replacement costs and
diverse environmental conditions, then LPI with
an emphasis on durability, productive life, and
solid production might be your primary focus.
Don't just chase the highest TPI or LPI if it
doesn't align. line with how your milk is paid
for or the specific challenges your cows face
daily. Know your own situation. It's about understanding
the nuances of your own market, your unique farm
setup and selecting genetics that will perform
optimally and profitably within that context.
It's about being strategic, not just following
a generalized top list. That's a powerful call
to action for our listeners. Now let's shift
our focus to the European markets, which the
article highlights as exemplifying a functional
excellence revolution. They seem to have somewhat
different priorities, driving a unique aspect
of genetic progress focused on overall cow health
and durability. They absolutely do. European
evaluations, particularly in Germany, are widely
regarded as world -class for their comprehensive
approach to functional traits that go well beyond
just milk volume. More than just production numbers.
Much more. And as we discussed earlier, the UK
provides a fantastic counterpoint to the volatility
we saw in Italy, showing how well genomics can
work when the validation system is robust and
consistently accurate. This section of the article
really drills down into what it means to breed
a truly resilient, long -lasting cow, not just
a high -producing one. The whole animal. Exactly.
It's about breeding for the whole animal for
the entire life cycle and ensuring profitability
through health and efficiency. Let's revisit
the UK first because it's a shining example of
where genomic predictions actually worked incredibly
well. The article states that six new daughter
proven sires entered the top 10 PLI positions
and their proven values match their genomic predictions
almost perfectly. Yeah, that one point deviation
again. To recap, their values deviated by just
one point on average. Talk about a confidence
boost. What makes this so remarkable? And what
can other markets learn from this kind of consistency?
It's an incredible success story that truly highlights
the potential of genomics. That level of accuracy
-proven values deviating by just one point on
average from earlier genomic predictions is truly
the gold standard for genomic reliability. It's
what everyone aims for. It is. It means that
the UK's genomic evaluation system, particularly
for their PPi, profit lifetime index, is highly
reliable and robust. For a producer, this means
you can have an exceptionally high degree of
confidence in using those elite genomic young
sires. You're not just taking a leap of faith,
you're making an informed decision based on a
system that has demonstrated its ability to predict
real -world performance with remarkable precision,
validated by 7 ,000 milking daughters. So what
can others learn? Well, this is what unlocks
the true potential of genomic selection. Faster
genetic progress with significantly reduced risk.
Other markets can learn from their rigorous data
collection, the depth of their reference populations,
and perhaps their emphasis on traits that are
more consistently predictable through genomic
markers. It's about building trust in the system,
which then allows for more aggressive yet responsible
adoption of new genetics. And leading that charge
is OCD trooper Sheepster, the new proven leader
at 779 PLI. His production numbers are excellent,
but the article points out his plus 113 day lifespan
improvement as crucial. Why is that specific
longevity trait so economically significant,
especially with UK replacement costs exceeding
2 ,000 pounds per animal? Yeah, that's a big
number. For a typical herd, what does that really
mean in terms of savings? Chupra Sheepster is
a phenomenal example of the modern ideal for
profitability in today's dairy landscape. His
production is excellent, yes, but that plus 113
-day lifespan improvement is where the true economic
magic happens for the producer. Let's put it
into perspective. If a replacement heifer costs
you over £2 ,000 to raise or purchase, which
is a very real number in the UK. Absolutely.
Every additional day, every additional month,
every additional lactation, a cow stays healthy
and productive in your herd directly reduces
your overhead. For a 100 -cow herd, if you can
improve the average productive life of your cows
by even just a few months, you might reduce your
annual replacement rate by maybe 5 -10%. Which
means? Which translates into avoiding the cost
of 5 -10 new heifers. That's 10 ,000 to 20 ,000
pounds annually just in avoided replacement costs,
not to mention the sustained milk income. Longevity
isn't just a welfare concern. It's a trade that
truly pays you back, directly improving your
cash flow. That makes perfect sense. And then
you have the genomic leader, Peak Alta Value
Pack, at 877 PLI, showing even stronger longevity
at plus 122 days, while still maintaining solid
production with nearly 800 kilograms of milk.
Even better longevity. The article calls him
the modern ideal. What makes him the epitome
of what breeders are scribing for now, and how
does he embody this functional excellence revolution?
Peak Alta Value Pack truly represents the direction
the industry is heading globally, not just in
the UK. To combine excellent production, nearly
800 kilograms of milk with an astounding plus
122 days of extended lifespan. And that higher
PLI is to breed a cow that delivers on all fronts.
The complete package. He's not just a production
machine. He's building a resilient, long -lasting
herd that will consistently generate income while
minimizing expenses. This focus on comprehensive
genetic merit, where functional traits like longevity,
health and fertility are given equal or even
greater importance than just raw production volume,
is what defines the modern ideal. So it's about
efficiency and health. It's about breeding for
efficiency, health, and sustainability, all of
which contribute to long -term profitability
and significantly reduced management headaches
for the farmer. It's creating cattle that are
built to last and to perform consistently over
that extended lifespan, allowing producers to
focus on optimizing their operations rather than
constantly dealing with replacements and health
issues. It's also striking how Genesaur's captain,
a former industry leader, dropped to fifth place
at 723 PLI despite having over 2 ,000 UK milking
daughters. Yeah, that's quite a drop for such
a proven bull. This really illustrates how rapidly
genetic progress can transform breeding hierarchies
when functional traits take precedence. Is it
that captain is less good? Or that the bar has
just been raised so dramatically. It's absolutely
the latter. It's a stark illustration of the
incredible pace of genetic progress and the continuously
shifting priorities within the industry. Genesaur's
captain has been a fantastic, reliable sire for
years, a true workhorse. Sure, a household name.
Absolutely. But the fact that he's been displaced
from the very top, even with thousands of proven
daughters validating his performance, shows how
quickly the genetic landscape is evolving. The
industry is moving toward a more holistic view
of profitability, where health, fertility, and
efficiency traits are paramount. So is that a
knock on Captain? Not at all. This isn't a knock
on Captain. It's a testament to the continuous
improvement in genetics, where newer sires are
simply offering a more complete package that
aligns with the current economic and management
demands. It's proof that standing still means
falling behind in dairy genetics. You constantly
need to be looking for that next level of improvement
across all economically relevant traits. Over
in Germany, their precision breeding truly shines,
focusing heavily on functional traits. Proven
leader Zivit commands RZG 147 through an impressive
balance, plus 1 ,971 kg milk, plus 88 kg fat,
plus 86 kg protein combined with functional traits
like RZN longevity index 121 and RZG's overall
health index 113. Really solid functional numbers
there. How do these numbers specifically reflect
a bull that actually works in commercial settings?
What does that mean for a German producer on
a daily basis? Zivid epitomizes the German breeding
philosophy, which emphasizes a balanced functional
animal built for commercial dairy operations.
The RZG index in Germany is designed to identify
bulls that excel across multiple traits important
for profitability and ease of management. So
it's the combination that matters. Exactly. While
his milk, fat, and protein numbers are excellent,
it's the combination with functional traits that
truly sets him apart. RZN 121 for longevity means
his daughters are built to last, reducing replacement
costs. RZG's 113 for overall health, which includes
traits like mastitis resistance, fertility, and
calving ease, indicates that his daughters are
not just high producers, but also healthy, fertile,
and durable. Less trouble, basically. For a German
producer, this means less veterinary intervention,
fewer reproductive issues, and cows that stay
in the herd longer without needing constant attention.
That's what working in commercial settings truly
means. Delivering consistent, low -maintenance
profitability day in and day out, freeing up
time and resources for other aspects of the farm.
And the genomic sphere in Germany produced twin
leaders. Evenstar and Pennywise, both at RZG
164. Tied at the top. Evenstar's projected numbers
are incredible. Plus 2 ,090 kg milk, plus 120
kg fat, plus 69 kg protein, plus a fantastic
RZN 134 for longevity. This really positions
him as a premium choice. How might a producer
decide between a proven bull like Zivit and a
genomic leader? like Evenstar. Absolutely. Evenstar
and Pennywise at RZG 164 are at the absolute
cutting edge of genomic potential. Evenstar's
projected numbers, particularly that plus 120
kilograms fat and an outstanding RZN 134 for
longevity, indicate a bull that could significantly
elevate a herd's performance across the board.
Big potential jump. Huge jump. This isn't just
about raw milk volume. It's about highly profitable
components in cows that will have extended productive
lives. For operations that can tolerate the inherent,
albeit lower genomic risk, perhaps larger herds
that can absorb the occasional genomic re -ranking.
Where diversification helps. Bowls like Evenstar
represent opportunity to achieve rapid genetic
leaps, producing cattle that are both highly
productive and incredibly durable. The decision
between Zivit and Evenstar would come down to
a producer's risk tolerance and their specific
breeding goals. Zivit offers rock -solid, proven
reliability. Evenstar offers the potential for
faster, higher genetic gains, but with the inherent
genomic prediction risk. It's a strategic choice
for maximum progress. It's also fascinating to
see the continued progress in Red Holstein genetics
in Germany, with Ginger leading proven sires
at RZG 143 and Shock leading genomics at RZG
161. What does this indicate for the broader
industry? The strength and continued progress
of Red Holstein genetics in Germany is remarkable.
Ginger, a proven sire at RCG 143 with over 2
,600 kilograms of milk from 510 daughters, shows
that this segment of the breed is not only holding
its own but making significant strides in productivity
and functional traits. So Red Holsteins are keeping
pace. Absolutely. And Shock, a genomic red Holstein
at RZG 161, demonstrates that the same rapid
genetic progress seen in Holsteins is also being
achieved in red Holsteins. This offers producers
more choices and allows for important genetic
diversification, which is always a good thing
for long -term breed health and adaptability.
More options are always good. Exactly. It signifies
that you don't have to compromise on performance
for color preference or specific market niches.
It provides a valuable alternative. for producers
looking to diversify their genetics or who simply
prefer the red Holstein breed. And finally, Italy.
The article describes their evaluations as providing
the starkest illustration of genomic volatility
you've seen in the world. Yeah, it's pretty dramatic
over there sometimes. What exactly should worry
every reader about the dramatic swings of 100
points or more in a single evaluation? It sounds
like playing a game of chance with your genetics.
What should worry every breeder about Italy's
genomic volatility is precisely that. The sheer
unpredictability it introduces into breeding
programs. Imagine you've invested in a genomic
bull, a rising star, whose evaluation drops by
100 points or more in a single cycle. That's
not just a statistical anomaly, that's a direct
and sudden devaluation of semen you've purchased,
a significant change in the expected performance
of offspring already on the ground, and a major
disruption to your long -term breeding plan.
It makes long -term planning incredibly difficult
and highlights the substantial financial risk
of relying too heavily on unproven genetics in
such a volatile system. It undermines confidence.
Completely. It's a loud warning about the potential
pitfalls of over -reliance on predictions without
sufficient real -world validation. And it can
leave producers feeling like they've been left
holding the bag. So on the flip side of that...
Why does a proven bull like ZFZ Chrysalis RF
at 5169 GPFT provide important stability in the
Italian market, especially given that volatility?
And GPFT, by the way, is Italy's genomic production
and fitness total index. Chrysalis provides that
crucial stability. Precisely because he is proven.
His GPFT of 5169 is based on the actual performance
of his daughters already milking in real -world
Italian dairy settings. It eliminates the guesswork
and the potential for drastic, unpredictable
re -ranking. For an Italian producer where profitability
can be very tight due to specific market conditions
and feed costs, having a bull like Chrysalis
in their breeding program offers a reliable foundation.
They know what they're getting, they know his
daughters perform consistently, and And that
consistency acts as a vital anchor against the
unpredictable shifts seen in the genomic rankings.
A safe bet. He's the safe, reliable choice that
mitigates risk, allowing producers to build their
herd's genetic base with confidence, which is
invaluable in a high -risk environment. And peak
spellbound ET is the new number one genomic at
5458 GPFT, specifically highlighted for his exceptional
component percentages, plus 1 .07 % fat and plus
0 .54 % protein. Those are huge percentages.
Why are these components so critical for Italy's...
cheese -focused industry, and how does that tie
into the ICSPR index, where Smarty PET leads
at 1398 ICSPR -O? Italy's dairy industry is unique
because of its incredibly strong focus on value
-added products, particularly high -quality cheeses
like Parmigiano -Reggiano and Grano Panano. Right,
cheese is king there. Absolutely. For cheese
production, while the volume of milk is important,
the percentage of fat and protein is absolutely
paramount. These are the milk solids that directly
translate into cheese yield. So spellbound ET's
incredible component percentages plus 1 .07 %
fat and plus 0 .54 % protein are not just impressive
numbers. They directly address this crucial market
need. More cheese per liter of milk. Exactly.
His daughters will produce milk that is far more
valuable for cheesemaking, meaning producers
are paid significantly more per hundred weight
of milk. The ICSPR index, which Smarty PET leads,
explicitly reflects this economic reality. It's
an index heavily weighted to prioritize profitability
based on the value of components over sheer volume.
So it reflects the market perfectly. What this
means for Italian producers is that breeding
for high component percentages directly translates
into substantially higher milk checks because
they are paid more for the quality and yield
of their milk for cheese production. It's a perfect
example of market -specific selection driving
genetic priorities, making these bulls exceptionally
profitable within their specific industry context.
So for our listeners, even if you're not in Europe,
how can understanding these diverse market priorities
and outcomes inform your own breeding program?
What universal lessons can be learned about balancing
production and functional traits? The core lesson
here, no matter where you are geographically,
is that you must intimately understand your own
market's payment system and your own farm's specific
challenges. The Italian focus on high components
for cheese, the UK's emphasis on longevity due
to high replacement costs, or Germany's balanced
functional traits for overall commercial viability,
these aren't just European quirks. They're examples.
They are brilliant examples of how genetic selection
must align with economic realities on your farm.
You need to ask yourself, how am I actually paid
for my milk? What are my biggest costs? Is it
feed, replacements, vet bills? What management
challenges do I face? Daily heat stress, lameness,
repro issues? Do your homework. Exactly. Once
you answer those questions honestly, you can
then identify precisely which functional traits,
beyond just raw milk volume, are going to drive
your profitability and make your life easier.
It's about tailoring your genetic strategy to
your unique circumstances and financial goals,
not just chasing a global top list that might
not apply to your farm. That brings us to our
next major point, broadening the discussion to
the overarching trends impacting dairy genetics
globally. It's clear these are heavily driven
by economic pressures and a shifting understanding
of what truly defines a profitable, sustainable
cow. Absolutely. What we're seeing across all
these markets isn't just a series of isolated
events. It's a collective industry response to
rising costs, tighter margins, and increased
consumer and societal demands. They're all connected.
Very much so. These traits we're about to discuss,
health, longevity, component production, feed
efficiency, and even pole genetics, they are
no longer nice to have fissures. They're becoming
absolutely essential for profitability and even
for survival in today's dairy climate. The economic
realities of 2025 are forcing producers to be
incredibly strategic and holistic with their
breeding decisions, looking for every edge to
optimize their operations. Let's dive into health
and longevity first. The article mentions Progenesis
Watchman's Elite 8 .6 Health Index as defensive
genetics. What exactly does that mean and how
do values like the UK's Healthy Cow or Germany's
RZG scores link directly to rising veterinary
costs and ultimately economic survival for a
producer? Defensive genetics is a perfect term
for Watchman's elite 8 .6 health index. It means
breeding animals that are inherently more robust
and resistant to common diseases and health issues.
Think of it as building a stronger immune system
and a more resilient body through genetics. Building
resilience. Exactly. In today's environment where
vet costs are escalating and every sick cow means
lost production, extra labor. drug expenses,
and often a higher likelihood of being cold prematurely.
It all adds up fast. It does. Selecting for robust
health traits is like building a financial fortress
around your herd. The UK's Healthy Cow values
and Germany's RZG scores are comprehensive indices
that combine multiple health -related traits,
mastitis resistance, metabolic health, calving
ease, calf survival. When you breed for these,
you're not just improving animal welfare, which
is incredibly important. Very important. But
you're directly impacting your bottom line by
significantly reducing the incidence of costly
health problems. Imagine cutting your vet bill
by 10 % or more just by having healthier cows.
In essence, healthy cows equal more profitable
cows. And in tight economic times, prioritizing
health traits truly is a matter of economic survival.
Less time treating, more time managing. Precisely.
It directly translates to less time spent treating
sick animals and more time managing a productive,
efficient herd. It's a complete paradigm shift,
moving from just volume to focusing on the cow's
entire contribution. And speaking of economic
shifts, the article highlights component production
as the new economic reality moving away from
volume alone. A huge shift. Contrast Ginger's
high volume with Peak Spellbound ET's exceptional
fat percentage and explain why component premiums
are becoming more significant. leading to better
returns for producers. This is a fundamental
change in how many producers are getting paid
across the globe. For decades, the focus was
primarily on sheer volume. How many kilograms
or pounds of milk could a cow produce? Ginger,
with over 2 ,600 kilograms of milk, still excels
in that traditional volume metric, producing
a lot of liquid. The old way. Right. However,
for a growing number of markets, particularly
those involved in value -added products like
cheese, yogurt, or butter, it's the fat and protein
percentages and total yields that truly drive
the milk check. Peak spellbound ETs plus 1 .07
% fat and plus 0 .54 % protein are astronomically
high. Really high. Meaning his daughters will
produce milk with a much higher concentration
of solids, the good stuff that processors actually
want. As processors increasingly pay more for
these valuable components rather than just the
water in the milk, producers with component -rich
milk receive significantly higher premiums. So
quality pays more than quantity now in many cases.
That's exactly it. This means that even if a
cow produces slightly less volume, if her components
are significantly higher, she can be far more
profitable than a high -volume, low -component
cow. Imagine two cows producing the same volume,
but one brings in an extra 20 -30 cents per hundredweight
due to components. Over a herd, that adds up
to thousands of dollars annually. It's about
quality over quantity, and it's becoming the
dominant payment model for a reason. It rewards
efficiency and value. Another fascinating trend
highlighted is polled integration, which is finally
happening seamlessly. We're seeing top -ranking
polled genetics like Germany's CreateP achieving
RZG161 and Canada's Vogue A2P2PP maintaining
plus 15 CONF without any apparent performance
compromises. Yeah, that's a big development.
Why is this significant beyond just a preference
for naturally hornless animals? What are the
real -world benefits for a farmer? This is a
win -win situation for both animal welfare and
farm management, and it's a sign of real progress
in genetic selection. Historically, polled genetics
sometimes came with a performance penalty, right?
Yeah, there was often a trade -off. You might
have had to compromise on production or other
desirable traits to get a naturally hornless
animal. But now, as the article highlights with
CreateP and Vogue A2P2PP, we're seeing elite
genetics that also happen to be polled. This
is incredibly significant because it allows producers
to meet growing consumer demands and welfare
concerns around dehorning without sacrificing
any genetic progress. So no more dehorning hassle.
Exactly. For the farmer, it completely removes
a major management headache. Dehorning takes
time, labor, equipment, and can be stressful
for the animals, potentially leading to setbacks.
Having naturally pulled calves is a huge efficiency
gain, reduces labor costs, eliminates the need
for specialized equipment, and aligns with growing
public expectations for animal care. It's a great
example of how responsible breeding can address
multiple needs simultaneously, making the farm
operation smoother and more aligned with modern
expectations. But with all this incredible progress,
the article also raises a critical concern, the
bloodline concentration problem. The dominance
of specific sire lines, like overdrive sons or
genosaurus genetics, is highlighted. Yeah, that's
definitely something we need to keep an eye on.
What are the long -term risks to breed adaptability
when you have this kind of concentration? And
why should we be wary of repeating historical
mistakes in animal breeding? This is a serious
long -term concern that can easily be overlooked
in the excitement of short -term genetic gains.
When a few dominant sire lines like the Overdrive
Sons or the Genisaurus family become ubiquitous
across the industry, you're effectively narrowing
the genetic pool of the entire breed. Like putting
all your eggs in one basket. Pretty much. While
these specific genetics are undoubtedly high
-performing today, excessive concentration creates
what's essentially a genetic monoculture. This
means the breed becomes less adaptable to future
unforeseen challenges, whether it's a new aggressive
disease that a concentrated bloodline might be
particularly susceptible to, a dramatic shift
in climate that requires different adaptive traits,
or an unforeseen change in feed availability
or market demands. We've seen this before, right?
We've seen this movie before in other animal
breeds, where a narrow genetic base led to significant
vulnerabilities or the emergence of undesirable
genetic defects that spread rapidly because everyone
was using the same few sires. If a specific bloodline
carries a hidden genetic flaw that only emerges
later in life, or simply isn't suited to an emerging
challenge, the entire breed can be at risk. Maintaining
genetic diversity is crucial for the long -term
health, resilience, and adaptability of the Holstein
breed. So it's about future -proofing the breed.
It's like having all your eggs in one very successful
but ultimately fragile basket. It's about ensuring
the breed can evolve, not just excel in today's
environment. And with elevated feed costs being
a consistent pain point in 2025, feed efficiency
is called the make -or -break trait. How do indices
like the UK's Maintenance Index or Italy's ICS
PR rankings and a bull like Genesaurus Captain
with his impressive plus 255 feed advantage underscore
why feed efficiency often determines profitability
more than raw production numbers? This is truly
foundational and it hits directly at the largest
line item on most dairy farm budgets. Feed is
by far the largest input cost for any dairy operation.
No question. When feed costs are elevated, as
they are in 2025, any inefficiency in feed conversion
directly eats into your margins day in and day
out. The UK's maintenance index helps identify
cows that are more efficient at maintaining their
body weight, meaning they require less feed just
to exist, leaving more of that expensive feed
for milk production. Italy's ICS PRO, which factors
in components, implicitly rewards efficiency
because you're getting more valuable output for
your feed input. And a bull like Genesaur's captain
with a plus 255 feed advantage implies his daughters
are significantly more efficient at converting
feed into milk or components. Like more milk
per pound of feed. In simple terms, yes. For
every pound of feed they consume, they produce
more profitable milk or produce it more efficiently.
If you're spending thousands of dollars a day
on feed, even a small percentage improvement
in efficiency can translate into enormous savings
over a year. When margins are tight, this efficiency
can literally be the difference between a profitable
year and one where you're struggling to break
even. It's basic economics. It's basic economics
on the farm. Reducing your biggest variable cost
is often the fastest way to boost your bottom
line, even more so than just chasing higher and
higher production numbers. Finally, let's talk
about replacement costs and why longevity pays.
The article states that rapidly rising replacement
heifer costs often over $2 ,000 per animal to
raise or purchase, are elevating longevity traits
to critical importance. Hugely important now.
Revisit OCD Trooper Sheepster with his plus 113
days lifespan improvement and Peak Alta Value
Pack with plus 122 days and explain how every
additional lactation from a cow represents thousands
of dollars in value and ignoring longevity is
choosing to hemorrhage money. This really brings
it all back to the producer's wallet. This is
arguably one of the most critical and impactful
points from the entire article for any producer
because the math is undeniable and affects every
single word. If a replacement heifer costs you
over $2 ,000 to raise or purchase, which is a
very conservative estimate in many regions. Easily.
Every cow that leaves your herd prematurely forces
you to incur that substantial cost again. Think
about it. That's $2 ,000 in sunk costs that you're
constantly trying to recover. When you have a
bull like OCT Trooper Chicster adding 113 days
or Peak Alta Value Pack adding an incredible
122 days to the productive life of their daughters,
it's not just a statistic. It's a direct economic
injection into your operation. Real money. Real
money. an additional lactation from a healthy
productive cow can easily represent thousands
of dollars in milk revenue spread over reduced
fixed costs and avoided replacement expenses
if a cow produces 80 pounds of milk a day and
she stays in the herd an extra four months that's
the dozens of pounds of milk translating to significant
income without the cost of a new heifer so ignoring
longevity is just costly. So when the article
says ignoring longevity is choosing to hemorrhage
money, it's not hyperbole. It means you are consciously
signing up for higher costs, reduced efficiency,
and a constant drain on your capital as you replace
cows that should still be in their prime. It's
an open financial wound if you're not actively
breeding for cows that stay in the herd longer,
healthier, and more productive. It's simply smart
business to prioritize it. That's a powerful
statement to end on. So for our listeners, Which
of these trends, health and longevity, component
production, polled integration, genetic diversity,
feed efficiency, or managing replacement costs,
is most impactful to your operation? And how
are you adapting your breeding program to address
these critical economic and industry shifts?
It truly requires a holistic view, doesn't it?
It absolutely does. And the answer will be different
for everyone because every farm is unique. It
comes down to meticulously analyzing your own
profit and loss statement, understanding your
local milk market's payment system, and identifying
where your biggest opportunities for improvement
or cost savings lie. Know your numbers. Know
your numbers. If you're paying huge vet bills,
then health indices become paramount. If your
milk check is primarily based on components,
that's where your genetic focus absolutely should
be. If you're struggling with high turnover,
longevity is your answer. It's about leveraging
these insights, understanding what the genetic
evaluations actually mean for your farm, and
making informed, strategic decisions tailored
to your unique circumstances and long -term goals.
So after all that incredible detail and analysis,
what's the absolute key takeaway for a farmer
listening today? Summing up how to navigate this
evolving genetic landscape. Okay, yeah. The primary
takeaway, and one I can't stress enough, is to
adopt a portfolio approach to your genetic selection.
The volatility we've seen, particularly in some
genomic evaluations, underscores the need for
genetic diversification. Don't put all your eggs
in one basket, whether that basket is purely
genomic or purely proven. Balance it out. Balance
it out. My recommendation and what successful
forward -thinking operations are doing is to
build a balanced genetic portfolio. Aim for something
like, say, 60 -70 % proven sires to provide that
reliable foundation and stability, the rock -solid
performers you can count on. Then strategically
use 30 -40 % genomic young sires to capture rapid
genetic advancement and push your herd forward
faster in specific traits. But just based on
risk tolerance. Exactly. You can adjust those
percentages based on your specific risk tolerance
and how aggressively you want to push genetic
progress. The principle of diversification remains
key to maintaining reliability while still moving
your herd forward. Secondly, remember the absolute
importance of market specific selection. One
size absolutely does not fit all in dairy genetics.
You cannot follow global rankings blindly and
expect optimal results for your farm. Tailor
it. You need to intimately understand your specific
market's payment systems and your own farm's
unique management conditions. For example, as
we discussed, if you're an Italian producer focused
on cheese production, your priorities for high
component percentages will be very different
from a Canadian operation selling fluid milk,
where perhaps durability and feed efficiency
are paramount due to high replacement costs and
diverse climates. Tailor your strategy to the
traits that genuinely drive profitability in
your unique situation, rather than just chasing
the highest TPI or PLI score. It's about making
sure your genetics directly align with your financial
goals. And finally, regarding timing genomic
adoption, be progressive without being reckless.
The UK's strong validation of genomic predictions
through proven daughters offers a good model
for where genomic accuracy can give you confidence
for early adoption of superior young sires. Where
it's proven to work. Right. If a system is consistently
proving its genomic predictions, you can lean
into them more. However, the Italian experience
with a bull like cookie cutter Hadley ET, where
we saw such dramatic re -rankings, serves as
a very stark cautionary tale against extensive
use of unproven genetics, especially in systems
that show such high volatility. Be cautious.
Successful breeders are adopting measured approaches,
using genomic bulls selectively to accelerate
progress in specific areas, while maintaining
a strong core breeding program built on the rock
-solid foundation of proven genetics. It's about
being smart and strategic, not just jumping on
every new high genomic number without understanding
the underlying reliability and risk. It's about
being a savvy genetic investor. Those are incredibly
clear, actionable insights. And I think that's
the precise roadmap producers need right now.
Thank you for walking us through that. And for
our listeners, here's a final thought. The future
isn't about choosing between proven and genomic
selection. It's about leveraging both approaches
strategically and intelligently to create cattle
that thrive in an increasingly challenging environment,
ultimately showing up in your milk checks and
boosting your bottom line. Great points. And
that's all the time we have for today's Deep
Dive. For more articles and insights on the dairy
industry, be sure to visit www .thebullvine .com.
Don't forget to subscribe wherever you get your
deep dives. Thanks for listening. That wraps
up today's deep dive into the August 2025 genetic
evaluations. If there's one thing you take away
from this episode, it's this. The gap between
genomic predictions and proven performance is
widening, and the winners are building balanced
portfolios rather than gambling everything on
unproven genetics. For all the charts, data,
and detailed analysis we covered today, That's
T -H -E -B -U -L -V -I -N -E dot com. You'll
find the complete breakdown of every ranking
change, the economic analysis behind our recommendations,
and the strategic frameworks that progressive
operations are already implementing. And if you
found value in today's episode, make sure to
subscribe to the Bullvine Podcast wherever you
listen to podcasts. We bring you the genetic
intelligence and market insights that influence
real breeding decisions. not just the latest
industry hype. Until next time, keep building
herds that actually pay the bills. This has been
the Bullvine Podcast.