Breaking free from the chains of the past Where
truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law
waiting on some printed page We're charting new
ground in the digital age From genomic codes
to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold
them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight
we're sparking Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast,
where we challenge conventional wisdom in the
dairy industry with data -driven insights that
matter to your bottom line. I'm your host, and
today we're diving into a topic that's going
to ruffle some feathers in breed society boardrooms
across North America. We're asking the uncomfortable
question that most industry leaders won't touch.
When was the last time a breed convention banquet
actually improved your herd's milk production?
or reduced your feed costs? If you're struggling
to answer that, you're not alone. Here's the
brutal math that's shaking up the industry. While
U .S. dairy operations have collapsed from over
70 ,000 farms to just 24 ,000 in the past 20
years, breed conventions are still operating
like it's 1985. Today, 66 % of all U .S. pal
milk comes from operations with 1 ,000 or more
cows. Yet breed societies are still hosting hotel
ballroom events designed for the extinct 74 -cow
family farm. We're going to expose the $500 -plus
convention cost reality, reveal why Holstein
Canada's 18 % revenue growth proves transformation
works, and share the three specific strategies
that smart breed societies are using not just
to survive, but to thrive in this consolidating
industry. This isn't just another industry trend
discussion. This is about the future survival
of breed societies and whether they'll become
indispensable profit partners or expensive nostalgia
clubs. Let's dive in. Welcome, everyone, to Thy
Deep Dot. Today, we're really digging into something
big. It's about this fundamental transformation,
like a complete reshaping of the North American
dairy industry. And we're not talking about just
a temporary dip or, you know, some minor market
thing. This is, well... It feels like a complete,
maybe irreversible change that's hitting even
the oldest institutions. Our goal today, our
mission, if you like, is to really unpack, well,
the brutal mathematics of scale, efficiency,
and survival, as one source put it. We want to
understand what's driving these huge changes
and, importantly, what it means for things like
the traditional breed convention. That's exactly
right. And as we've gone through the research,
you know, looked at the dairy convention evolution
research, and especially dug into the Bullvine
article, the one called Dairy Societies, evolve
or vanish, it just becomes so, so clear. That
old one size fits all model, the way a lot of
the industry used to work, it's just... It's
not cutting it anymore because the industry,
it was built for that sort of unified group.
Honestly, it doesn't really exist like that now.
It's fractured. It really has. Completely different
realities on the ground. So we're going to dive
deep into all this, really try to help you understand
not just what's happening, but maybe more importantly,
why it matters. Why it matters for every single
dairy operation out there, from the smallest
family farm right up to the biggest commercial
players. Okay, so let's start with the big signal,
the thing that just screams massive shift. It's
the vanishing dairy farm. I mean, when you look
at the stats over the last 30 years, it's not
just a slow fade. It feels more like a, well,
a systemic collapse in the number of farms. What
are those raw numbers telling us? Oh, the numbers
are. They're staggering, honestly. It's hard
to wrap your head on the scale of it. Think about
this. Back in 1992, the U .S. had, let me check
the exact figure, yeah, 131 ,535 commercial dairy
herds, over 130 ,000. Now fast forward just 30
years. The 2022 USDA Census of Ag, that number
plummeted down to just 24 ,470 farms reporting
milk sales. Wait, from over 130 ,000 down to
under 25 ,000. Exactly. That's an 81 .4 % reduction.
81 .4%. In just three decades, it's a catastrophic
loss of independent farms. It's changed the whole
landscape of rural areas. That's almost unbelievable.
And like you said, it's not just a slow decline.
The really scary part maybe is that the pace
is actually, it's picking up speed, right? Yeah.
The biggest drop we've seen was actually pretty
recent, wasn't it? Between 2017 and 2022? That's
right. That five -year period, just 60 months.
we saw 39 % fall in farm numbers. It went from
just over 40 ,000 farms down to that 24 ,470
number. 39 % in five years. Wow. How does that
compare to earlier periods? Well, that's what
makes it so stark. If you look back, say, between
2007 and 2012, the drop was around 27%. And even
earlier, like 1992 to 1997, it was about 26%.
So to jump to a 39 % drop in just five years,
that's unprecedented. It really tells you that
the forces pushing farms out, they're getting
stronger, not weaker. We're nowhere near settling.
into some kind of new normal here. Okay, but
here's where it gets really, really interesting.
And maybe where that simple story of the disappearing
family farm needs a bit more nuance. Because
while the number of farms is plummeting, the
total number of dairy cows in the country...
That stayed pretty stable, hasn't it? Around
9 .4 million. Remarkably stable. And total milk
production. It keeps going up. So what's the
hidden story there? What's really going on? That's
the absolute core of it. That stability in cows
and rising production while farms vanish. It
tells you the industry isn't just shrinking.
Its whole operating model is being replaced systematically.
The traditional small or mid -sized family farm
may be diversified. The kind that was the backbone
for generations, it's being swapped out. replaced
by much larger, much more specialized, and way
more capital -intensive operations. It's a total
structural overhaul, from diffuse and local to
concentrated and industrial. And you can see
that perfectly in the average herd size numbers.
It's almost shocking. Back in 1992, the average
U .S. dairy herd was, was it 74 cows? 74 cows,
yeah. Pretty modest, right? What most people
picture. Exactly. But by 2023, it surged to 357
cows on average. And the estimates for 2024 are
pushing it even higher, like 377 cows. That's
nearly a five -fold increase, five times bigger
on average. It's not just bigger farms. It's
a fundamentally different kind of farm, a different
business model. And that traditional average
producer, the maybe 50 to 200 cow herd, they're
now a statistical minority, kind of caught in
the middle, squeezed between these two diverging
realities. Precisely, which leads us right into
this concept of the great divide, the raw economics
of survival. Because let's be honest, in the
commodity milk market where margins are thin,
scale isn't just a nice to have anymore. It's
not just an edge. It's basically a prerequisite.
You need scale to survive. And this huge gap
has opened up in the cost of production. It's
literally created a two -tiered industry. OK,
so how big is that gap? Can we put numbers on
it? Oh, yeah. The USDA data from 2022 lays it
out pretty starkly. Operations with 2 ,000 cows
or more, these are the mega dairies, their average
total cost of production was $23 .06 per hundredweight.
Per $100. Now, compare that to farms in that
traditional range, say 100 to 199 cows. Their
average cost, $32 .83 per hundredweight. $32
.83 versus $23 .06. That's almost $10 difference
per 100 pounds of milk. Exactly. $9 .77 per 100
week, to be precise. Nearly $10. That disadvantage
for smaller farms selling into the same commodity
market, it's not just significant. It's almost
insurmountable if you're trying to compete just
on price. So where does that huge difference
come from? Is it mostly feed costs because larger
farms can buy feed cheaper? Or is something else
driving it? That's a really good question. Because
it's not just feed, although that's part of it.
The feed cost difference is maybe around $2 .50
per hundredweight. Still significant, but not
the whole story. The really eye -watering number
is the difference in non -feed costs. Things
like labor, repairs, depreciation, utilities,
all that stuff. That difference is a staggering
$19 .59 per hundredweight. $19? Just on non -feed
costs? $19 .59, yeah. It's massive. And that's
where economies of scale really, really show
up. Bigger operations can negotiate better prices
on everything, spread fixed costs like equipment
or buildings over way more cows, specialize their
labor force. It just drives down the cost per
unit of milk dramatically. Okay, so this cost
difference must directly translate into who's
actually making money, right? Absolutely. It
creates this kind of winner -take -all situation.
There was a USDA Economic Research Service analysis
back in 2016. It found that 62 % of farms with
2 ,000 plus cows, they were generating gross
returns that actually covered their total costs.
They were genuinely profitable businesses. But
for farms under 100 cows, that figure was less
than 10%. Less than 1 in 10 were covering all
their costs from operations. So how do those
smaller farms keep going then, if less than 10
% are technically profitable? Well, the hard
reality is that many of them operate by... essentially
by sacrificing returns on their own investment
and, critically, their own labor. They're not
making what a business would consider a fair
return. It's often sustained by off -farm income
or just incredibly long hours and accepting lower
compensation for their own work. It's not always
a strictly economic decision, you know. It might
be legacy, lifestyle, but from a pure business
standpoint... It's tough. And we see those big
average income numbers, like the average net
cash farm income for specialized dairies in 2022
was almost $750 ,000. But that number is misleading,
isn't it? Hugely misleading if you don't dig
deeper, because that average is massively skewed
upwards. It's driven overwhelmingly by the largest
farms. About 36 % of dairies had over $1 million
in sales that year, and they captured the vast
majority of the industry's total profits. So
that average figure doesn't reflect the reality
for most smaller or even mid -sized operations.
Right. And this profit concentration mirrors
the concentration of milk production itself,
doesn't it? Perfectly. In 2022, farms with 1
,000 cows or more They were only about 8 % of
the total number of U .S. dairy farms, just 8%.
But they produced 68 % of the nation's milk supply.
Wow. 8 % of farms making almost 70 % of the milk.
It's incredible concentration. And think about
how fast that happened. Go back to 1997. Large
farms, maybe defined a bit differently then,
but conceptually similar, held only 17 % of the
national herd. By 2022, that number jumped to
65%. 65 % of all dairy cows are now on these
large operations. Meanwhile, those smaller farms,
under 100 cows, they went from holding 39 % of
the herd in 97 down to just 7 % in 2022. It's
complete flip. It's full restructuring. Exactly.
And this is the absolute critical point for our
discussion today. This bifurcation, this split,
it's created two fundamentally distinct populations
of dairy producers and their needs, especially
for things like professional development or information.
They have almost zero overlap. So that one size
fits all approach, like a traditional breed convention
trying to serve everyone, it just doesn't compute
anymore. It can't work. Okay, let's break that
down. On one side, you've got the manager of
a mega dairy, maybe thousands of cows, a multi
-million dollar budget. What do they need? Their
needs are sophisticated high -level business
needs. They're looking for cutting -edge business
intelligence, advanced financial management tools
and strategies, deep data analytics to optimize
every single aspect of the operation. They need
complex labor solutions because they might have
dozens, even hundreds of employees. They need
rigorous ROI assessments for any new technology
they consider buying. And their time is incredibly
scarce and valuable. Any professional development
activity has to be an investment. It must deliver
a clear, measurable return, often quite quickly.
They need actionable insights for their bottom
line, not just general information or social
stuff. Okay, so that's one side. What about the
other side, the small herd survivor, maybe 100,
200 cows? Their needs are completely different
because they often can't compete in that commodity
world. Their survival depends on getting out
of that system, so they need very specific strategies
for niche marketing. How do you succeed with
organic? Grass -fed, A2 milk. They might be looking
into value -added processing, making cheese,
yogurt, bottling their own milk. Direct consumer
sales models are huge for them, ways to bypass
the processors and capture more margin. And they
need technology, yes, but technology that's viable
and cost -effective at their scale. Maybe smaller
robotic milking systems suitable for 100 of 500
cows, not the massive parlors needed for thousands.
Their focus is escaping commodity pricing, not
just becoming slightly more efficient within
it. So you see the problem, right? How does one
single event, a traditional convention, maybe
it has a cattle show, a few general talks, a
banquet, how does that possibly meet the critical
needs of both those groups? It can't. It fundamentally
cannot. The value proposition gets completely
diluted. For the mega dairy manager, the content
is probably too basic. The networking isn't targeted
enough. The ROI is fuzzy at best. For the small
herd niche producer, the focus on large -scale
commodity production or genetics for that system
is largely irrelevant. They need different information
entirely. The whole structure, the format, the
focus of the traditional convention, it's just
misaligned with the polarized reality of dairy
in 2024. It's out of sync. And the whole process,
this consolidation, it's not happening evenly
across the map, is it? It's creating regional
shifts too. Oh, absolutely. It's causing a major
geographic redistribution of milk production.
It's really hollowing out some of the traditional
dairy heartlands, you know, the Midwest, the
Northeast, while production and therefore economic
influence is concentrating in new areas. Which
states have been hit hardest by these farm losses?
Well, the states you typically think of as dairy
states have seen staggering losses, especially
between 2017 and 2022. Wisconsin, America's dairy
land, lost... 2 ,740 farms in that five -year
window. Just gone. Pennsylvania lost 1 ,570.
New York lost 12 ,260. Minnesota lost 11 ,175.
These aren't just numbers. It's part of their
identity eroding. The landscape is changing.
That's devastating. But where is production growing
then? Or... consolidating you see growth or at
least much slower declines combined with huge
increases in cow numbers in states often more
favorable to very large scale confinement operations
texas is a prime example they only lost 80 farms
between 2017 and 2022 but over the last decade
they added almost 200 000 cows huge increase
in capacity and even in states with big overall
losses like california new york even wisconsin
the number of mega dairies say over 2500 cows
actually increased during that same period california
added 57 of them New York 16, Wisconsin 14. So
consolidation is happening everywhere. But the
growth of this new large scale model is really
concentrated in certain regions. OK, so this
isn't just about milk map changing. This shifts
the whole center of gravity for the industry,
culturally, politically. Yeah. Even within breed
associations, right? Exactly. Historically, the
Midwest and Northeast, with their dense populations
of mid -sized farms, had disproportionate influence
in breed associations. Their needs, their culture
often set the agenda. But now, as the cow numbers,
the milk production, the economic power shifts
to these massive operations in the West and Southwest,
their needs are going to start dominating, or
they should if the associations want to stay
relevant. This is the huge challenge for breed
associations. Many are still headquartered, still
culturally rooted in those traditional areas.
They have to adapt their programs, their services,
their leadership focus to reflect this new reality.
If they don't, they risk alienating the fastest
growing, most economically significant part of
the industry. And they'll end up just serving
a shrinking base, becoming regionally isolated,
almost like a historical society instead of an
active industry player. Let's look at that table
comparing 2017 and 2022 farm numbers again. Those
percentage changes really drive home the regional
impact. They really do. Wisconsin. 9 ,090 farms
down to 6 ,350. That's a 30 .1 % drop. Almost
a third gone in five years. Pennsylvania, 6 ,570
down to 5 ,000. That's a 23 .9 % loss. Still
massive. New York, 4 ,470 down to 3 ,210. That's
28 .2 % gone. Consistent pattern. And Minnesota
had one of the worst percentage drops. Yeah.
Minnesota went from 3 ,210 farms down to just
2 ,035. That's a loss of 1 ,175 farms, but percentage
-wise. It's a staggering 36 .6 % reduction. Over
a third of their dairies disappeared in five
years. Okay, now contrast that with some of the
other states you mentioned. California. California
dropped from 4 ,390 farms to 1115. That's a loss
of 275 farms or about 19 .8%. Still a decline,
yes, but a significantly slower rate than the
upper Midwest. And remember, they added mega
dairies during this time. It's consolidation.
Idaho. Similar story. 500 farms down to 400.
A loss of 100 or 20 .0%. Consolidation into larger
units. And Texas. Texas went from 560 farms down
to 480. only an 80 farm drop or 14 .3%. The smallest
percentage decline on that list while simultaneously
adding huge numbers of cows. These numbers just
paint such a clear picture of this uneven impact,
this geographic shift, and it really highlights
the urgent need for breed associations to figure
out how they serve this new landscape or risk
becoming, you know, just irrelevant footnotes.
Okay, so we've mapped out these huge shifts across
the industry, consolidation, the economic divide,
geographic changes. Now let's zoom in on the
traditional dairy breed convention itself. Because
all these changes put it in a really, really
tough spot. It feels like essentially an analog
model, maybe beautifully crafted one from the
past, but struggling hard to find its place in
this digital data -driven polarized industry
we just described. That's a perfect way to put
it. And you know, the simplest, most direct measure
of how any event is doing. It's attendance. And
by that measure, honestly, the traditional breed
convention seems to be, well, ailing. Let's look
at some recent numbers our sources pulled together.
The 2024 National Holstein Convention, that's
the biggest breed, often seen as the bellwether,
it threw about 700 attendees. Respectable, sure,
but... Maybe not huge in the grand scheme of
things. And it goes down from there for other
breeds, right? Right. Pretty significantly. At
the 2024 National Brown Swiss Convention, around
200 people, the National Ayrshire Convention
that same year was reported as having hundreds,
probably similar, maybe low hundreds. Now, look,
these attendees are obviously the dedicated core,
the loyal members, and that's important. But
compare those numbers. To the big agricultural
shows. Exactly. The 2023 World Dairy Expo, 56
,250 attendees. 56 ,000. The National FFA Convention
in 2023, which is youth -focused, almost 73 ,000
people. Even the Comatibi Classic trade show
in 2024 pulled in over 11 ,500 farmers and industry
folks. The scale difference is just, it's monumental.
It's not just more people. It's a different kind
of event attracting them. That disparity is huge.
And the key point here maybe is that this isn't
just farmers being apathetic about their breeds.
It's more of a... A rational market choice, isn't
it? Absolutely. Producers are voting with their
feet and maybe more importantly, with their wallets
and their extremely limited time. They're choosing
to invest that time and money in larger, more
diverse events where they can see a wider range
of technologies, genetics from all breeds and
network across the entire spectrum of things
they need for their business. Right. Because
a modern dairy manager, especially from a big
operation, needs to connect with people in feed,
tech, finance, data management, all of it. Precisely.
A single -breed event, just by definition, has
a narrower scope compared to something like World
Dairy Expo, which has that massive trade show
covering everything, seminars on all sorts of
topics, plus all the breeds are there. So it's
not apathy driving lower convention attendance,
it's producers making a calculated economic decision.
They're asking, where do I get the biggest bang
for my buck? Where's the best return on my investment
of time and money? And increasingly, the answer
isn't the traditional breed convention. And this
trend... obviously puts enormous financial strain
on the breed associations themselves. Looking
at their financials gives a sense of this pressure.
Holstein USA, the biggest, had revenues around
$17 .8 million in 2023. Right. But then you look
at Brown Swiss, around $746 ,000 in revenue.
Ayrshire Breeders Association, just over $252
,000. And remember, that revenue has to cover
everything they do, herd books, registrations,
genetic services, magazines, youth programs,
the whole nine yards. The national convention
is usually a major line item expense. And historically,
it was also supposed to be a key source of non
-dues revenue, things like registration fees,
which can be $250 a person, plus corporate sponsorships.
So if attendance is flat or falling, But costs
are staying high or even rising. The whole financial
model for the convention gets shaky. Exactly.
It becomes questionable whether hosting this
big multi -day national event is financially
sustainable. It puts associations in a tough
spot, pouring resources into a flagship event
that might only be appealing to a shrinking slice
of their membership while the costs to put it
on don't really go down. It's a classic diminishing
returns problem for the association itself. Okay,
beyond the money, there's the people factor.
The kind of person running a dairy farm today
is changing. And their expectations for professional
development are changing, too. Fundamentally
changing, yeah. And that traditional convention
model, multi -day, in -person, lots of social
stuff, big focus on the cattle show, it feels
increasingly out of step with what this new generation
needs or wants. It really does. Demographically,
we see that shift. The average U .S. farmer is
about 58, but the average dairy farmer is younger,
around 51. That tells you a new generation is
taking over. Plus, you've got the rise of the
professional farm manager. Maybe they're an employee,
not the owner, maybe overseeing multiple sites.
Their motivations are different. We even see
it at World Dairy Expo. 41 % of attendees there
identify as agribusiness professionals, not just
farmers. They're business managers first, maybe
breed enthusiasts second, if at all. And how
do these younger managers or professionals prefer
to learn? It's probably not sitting in seminars
for three days straight. Definitely not. They're
digital natives, right? They prefer, or at least
are very comfortable with, on -demand flexible
content. Research shows a preference for blended
learning, mixing online convenience with targeted
in -person stuff. One survey even found farmers
preferred short online courses, maybe offered
in the evening so it doesn't disrupt the farm
schedule. Sure, hands -on training is still valuable
for certain things, but e -learning, that's seen
as practical, efficient, fits into their lives
better. They want info when they need it, not
just when the convention happens to be scheduled.
So you've got this basic mismatch, the traditional
convention. Multiple days away, heavy social
focus, cattle show centerpiece. The modern manager.
Time is their scarcest resource. They're data
-driven. They need efficiency. They prefer flexible
learning. It's a huge mismatch. The opportunity
cost for that millennial or Gen X manager to
take several days off from a 247 operation. It's
massive, especially if the schedule seems packed
with social events or a show rather than just
wall -to -wall, high -impact, actionable content
they can use immediately. The ROI on their time
just isn't there. They need stuff they can apply
right away. Less focus on the traditions, maybe.
Yeah, I think so. They're driven by efficiency,
by data, by outcomes. They need actionable information
to improve the bottom line, streamline things,
the rituals, the traditions, the purely aesthetic
parts of the old convention. maybe less appealing,
less relevant to their day -to -day business
challenges. The whole structure, the length,
the rhythm, the priorities, it just feels out
of sync with the workflow and the mindset of
the people running the most progressive, economically
important farms today. It's like trying to use
a rotary phone in the smartphone era. Which brings
us right back to that ROI equation. Justifying
the time off the farm. Because for that modern
manager running a serious business, every decision
gets filtered through that return on investment
lens. Attending an event is no different. And
when you really crunch the numbers, the traditional
convention often struggles to make the cut, doesn't
it? It really does. The hard costs are easy to
see, right? Registration, $200, $350, flights,
hotel, meals. That adds up fast. But like you
said earlier, the bigger cost, the one that's
harder to pin down but very real, is the opportunity
cost. Several days away from running a complex
multi -million dollar business, that's a huge
investment of their attention, their management
time. That's the real hidden expense. And compared
to those clear costs, the benefits of the traditional
convention networking community, they're important,
sure, but they're kind of soft, hard to quantify.
Exactly. They're often soft, indirect. difficult
to put a dollar value on in a way that satisfies
a hardener's business analysis. How much is that
handshake actually worth to the bottom line next
quarter? It's tough to say. And that stands in
really sharp contrast to other investments they
could make with that same time and money. Investments
that often have much clearer, predictable, measurable
ROI. Because modern producers think in terms
of payback periods, right? They want to see a
return on tech investments in maybe two, five
years. They target maybe a 10 % return on capital
for major purchases. Precisely. It's all about
measurable outcomes. When that manager is weighing
their options, where do I spend my limited professional
development budget and time? Option A. Spend
maybe a few thousand dollars and three, four
days at the convention with benefits that are,
let's be honest, a bit fuzzy on the ROI front.
Or option B. Invest that same time and money
in something with a direct trackable impact.
Maybe it's a targeted online course on feed efficiency
where you can project the cost savings. Maybe
it's new sensor tech for repro with data showing
improved conception rates. Maybe it's genomic
testing across the heifer herd with a clear projection
for boosting genetic merit and future production.
For the data -driven manager making a rational
economic choice. The clear ROI wins, right? It
wins every time. The investment with the defensible,
measurable return beats the one with soft, unquantifiable
benefits. And unfortunately, the traditional
convention, with its heavy emphasis on social
connection and tradition over measurable business
impact, increasingly falls into that second category.
For the most business -focused producers, it
becomes an unjustifiable expense of both time
and money. Okay, so maybe the biggest, most fundamental
challenge to the whole convention model comes
from technology. Specifically, the genetic revolution.
For like a century, the absolute centerpiece
of these conventions was the cattle show, right?
That's where you saw the best genetics, where
confirmation was king. This is the pinnacle,
yeah. Visual appraisal was the primary tool for
identifying and promoting elite animals. But
that function? It's been almost completely taken
over by the science of genomics, hasn't it? Almost
entirely. The impact of genomic selection, since
it really hit the mainstream around 2009, it's
been nothing short of revolutionary for dairy
breeding, a total paradigm shift. It hasn't just
changed things. It's dramatically accelerated
genetic progress and fundamentally altered how
breeding decisions get made. It moved from being
partly an art to almost purely a data science.
And the numbers back that up, right? The speed
of genetic gain is basically doubled. Effectively
doubled, yeah. The data is crystal clear. If
you look at the Industry Standard Net Merit Index,
NM1, which predicts lifetime profitability before
genomics really took hold, the average annual
gain was about $40 per year since 2010. That
average annual gain has jumped to $85, more than
double the rate of progress year after year.
That adds up to way more profitable cows much
faster. How did genomics achieve that speedup?
Primarily by slashing the generation interval.
That's the time it takes to identify the best
animals and get them reproducing. For sires of
bulls, which is a key path for spreading genetics
fast, the generation interval used to be around
7 .5 years. Now, it's plunged to just 2 .5 years.
Wow, from 7 .5 years down to 2 .5. Yeah, think
about that compounding effect. You're getting
multiple generations of improvement in the time
it used to take for just one. It's incredible
efficiency. And it's not just faster, it's more
accurate too, right? Yeah. Especially for young
animals. much more accurate the reliability of
genomic predictions for young bulls before they
even have daughters milking is now twice what
it used to be based just on their parents averages
this means breeders can use young sires with
way more confidence much earlier it streamlines
everything reduces risk and critically genomics
lets you select for things you could never really
judge accurately in a show ring absolutely today's
breeding decisions are based on this complex
dashboard of traits Production, yeah, fat, protein.
But also, hugely important now, health traits.
Mastitis resistance, cow livability, resistance
to metabolic diseases, and fertility traits.
Daughter pregnancy rate, calving ease, stillbirth
rates, confirmation traits. They're still in
the indexes, sure. But they're weighted based
on their proven economic link to things like
longevity or health. Not just on subjective prettiness.
It's about function and profitability, not just
form. What does this actually mean for the cattle
show, the centerpiece of the convention? It means,
frankly, that the show rings role as the primary
tool for identifying and marketing commercially
relevant elite genetics. That role is gone. It's
obsolete. It's now more like, well, like we said,
a beauty contest or a marketing event or a social
gathering for enthusiasts. Which is fine. There's
value in that for some people. But as a serious
driver of genetic progress for the commercial
dairy industry, its time has passed. And that
completely undermines the historical justification
for the show being the central, most resource
-heavy part of the convention. Its core purpose
has been replaced by data and science. So in
this genomic age, the real currency is data.
Genetic progress isn't abstract anymore. It's
something you can measure and put a dollar value
on. Exactly. It's a line item on the P &L. The
most successful producers now are basically sophisticated
data managers. They're the ones who can effectively
gather all this data, integrate it, and then
act on it to make smarter, faster, more profitable
breeding decisions. Can you give an example of
that value? Like, what's a genetic gain actually
worth? Sure. In New Zealand, they calculate that
an 11 -unit increase in their BW index is worth
about $11 extra profit per 5 tons of dry matter
eaten. Pretty direct. Here in North America,
studies show that increasing genetic merit for
fat yield by just one kilogram. That's worth
somewhere between $25 and $36 in extra lifetime
profit per cow. Now multiply that across a herd
year after year. The accumulated value of consistently
using better genetics over 10 years for an average
herd. It's estimated at over a quarter of a million
dollars. That's serious money. It's real money.
And progressive farmers know this. They're not
just picking bulls from a catalog anymore. They're
genomically testing their own heifers at birth
to decide which ones to keep, which ones to breed,
maybe which ones get elite matings using IVF.
They're meticulously tracking performance data
through DHI, milk yield, components, health events
to see how those genetics actually perform in
their environment. And now they're starting to
integrate real -time data from on -farm tech,
like robotic milkers that track daily yield,
milking speed, even conductivity from a status
detection for every single cow. This opens up
selection for totally new traits related to efficiency
and health. So this data explosion, it creates
a huge challenge, but also maybe a huge opportunity
for the breed associations. Their old role isn't
enough anymore. Not even close. Their traditional
role is just keeper of the pedigree and organizer
of the show. That's insufficient for the commercial
producers driving the industry. The farmers winning
today are the ones synthesizing genomics, farm
performance data, economic signals. It's complex.
The opportunity for breed associations is to
become the facilitator of that synthesis, to
provide the tools, the platforms, the intelligence
to help members make sense of it all. Bullvine
article really hit on this, didn't it? Saying
societies can't be isolated. Yeah, it hammered
that point home. It said, the dairy cattle improvement
industry is changing fast due to new technology
and shifting priorities. Breed societies cannot
be isolated or have a standalone approach. It
argued they need to accept how things are changing
and figure out their role by 2030 and beyond.
The future, it suggests, isn't hosting shows.
It's becoming a hub for data integration and
intelligence. The new convention, in a way, is
this virtual meeting place for data. Okay, so
the picture is pretty clear. The traditional
convention model is struggling, maybe fundamentally
broken for the industry as it exists today. Consolidation.
Technology like genomics, a new generation with
different needs. It all points to breed societies
being at this major crossroads. Evolve or, well,
face extinction, as the Bullvine article put
it. So the path forward has to involve some radical
rethinking, right? Not just tinkering around
the edges. Bold innovation seems necessary. Absolutely
necessary. Incremental changes aren't going to
cut it. It requires reimagining the core purpose,
the business model, the whole event strategy.
And while maybe the dairy breed world has been
a bit slow on the uptake here, other industries,
other agricultural sectors even, offer some really
interesting blueprints for how to build value
and engage members effectively today. These models
move away from that old one -size -fits -all
event towards something more flexible, more targeted,
more tech -enabled. Okay, let's explore some
of those. What's the first case study? The hybrid
model. Yeah, case study one, the hybrid event
model. Think about major tech conferences like
HubSpot's Ionbound or VivaTech over in Europe.
They've really mastered combining a maybe smaller
but very high value in -person event with a really
robust content -rich virtual experience that
reaches a much wider audience. So how does that
work strategically? They split the audience or
the purpose? Exactly. They bifurcate it. The
in -person part becomes more exclusive, maybe
more expensive, focused on high -level networking.
strategic discussions, really intensive hands
-on workshops, things that truly benefit from
being face -to -face. But then the virtual component,
through a great online platform, gives broad
access. Thousands of people can tune in for detectable
deep dives, research updates, keynote streams,
on -demand content, all at a lower cost and without
needing to travel. It optimizes the value for
different needs and budgets. So how could a breed
society apply that, transform the annual convention?
They could. Imagine the traditional conventions
splitting into two parts. Maybe an in -person
leadership summit. Smaller, maybe 100, 200 pop
producers, key industry partners, focused on
strategy, finance, big picture stuff. premium
experience, and then simultaneously or spread
out a virtual technical conference fully online.
Thousands of members could access sessions on
genomics, nutrition, data management, new tech
for a much lower fee. This respects people's
time and budget constraints while still offering
that high touch element for a core group. And
financially, that makes sense, too. Diversifies
revenue? Big time. You're not just relying on
physical attendees. You open up new digital sponsorship
tiers. You lower the overall cost per attendee
reached. You expand your global reach. You get
better data on what content resonates. It's just
a much more modern, sustainable model. Okay,
what's the next potential blueprint? Something
more farm -focused? Right. Case Study 2. The
data -driven, on -farm showcase. Think about
initiatives like Western Growers Work with Automation
Tech out in California. This model shifts the
focus entirely away from the hotel ballroom and
puts it right onto the farm. Instead of just
talking about new tech or genetics, they partner
with innovative farms to show it working in the
real world. And crucially, they provide the actual
performance data, the ROI data, right there.
So it's less presentation, more demonstration.
Seeing is believing. Exactly. And producers relate
to that. Plus, these events are often regional,
which makes them easier to get to, more relevant
to local conditions. So for a breed society,
instead of one big national show, maybe they
organize a series of regional smart genetics
field days, host them at progressive member farms
that are already integrating top genetics with
things like robots, automated feeders, sensor
systems. The whole focus is tangible results.
Here's the efficiency gain. Here are the component
yields. Here's the health improvement. here's
the roi on this combined strategy and the association
wouldn't have to do it all alone no that's key
this model thrives on partnerships You collaborate
with the tech companies, Lilly, DeLaval, Cemex,
Zoetis, whoever. You partner with university
research groups like that WKU Smart Holstein
Lab. They co -host, co -fund. It reduces the
burden on the association. Plus, it brings the
experts right there for the attendees. It makes
the learning super practical, super relevant,
right where the work happens. Makes sense. What's
the third model? Something more digital. Yeah,
Case Study 3, the year -round digital knowledge
hub. Look at how organizations like the FAO share
information. or concepts around virtual ag markets.
This model envisions the association's digital
platform, its website, its apps, not just as
static brochures, but as continuous dynamic hubs,
places for knowledge sharing, community building,
even commerce, operating 24 -7. So the main benefit
of being a member isn't the convention discount
anymore, it's access to this digital ecosystem.
Precisely. The primary value shifts to year -round,
on -demand access. The convention, if there still
is one, becomes just one feature of the platform,
not the other way around. A forward -thinking
breed society should be investing heavily in
a top -notch digital platform that offers...
say, a library of e -learning courses, genomics,
financial management, niche marketing, whatever
members need, on -demand webinars, premium data
tools, subscription access maybe, tools for benchmarking
herd performance against others anonymously,
mating program simulators, ROI calculators for
different breeding strategies, real decision
support tools. That sounds powerful. Could it
even include selling genetics? Absolutely. A
curated, commission -based online marketplace
for elite genetics. Embryos, IVF, semen from
member herds, all with deep genomic data, maybe
performance data attached. Transparent. Efficient.
It helps members market their best genetics.
And it provides a direct revenue stream for the
association, turning member progress into shared
value. And this whole digital hub model, financially,
it's more stable. Much more resilient. You have
diversified revenue, subscriptions for data tools,
transaction fees from the marketplace, maybe
corporate sponsorships tied to specific content
or data initiatives. It's far less vulnerable
to one bad event, one year of low attendance.
It's a sustainable year -round business model,
like successful modern membership organizations
in other fields. To actually make any of these
shifts happen, though, leadership needs to listen
to different voices. Critically important, more
than ever. They need candid input from all corners,
from their own leadership who've maybe faced
challenges, like the Ayrshire Association having
to go virtual in 2020. What did they really learn
from that financially, logistically? That's valuable
intel. And from the progressive farmers themselves,
what do they find valuable? Yeah, look at events
like that Positive Farmers Dairy Conference in
Ireland. Their whole focus is progressive farmers
seeking insights and strategies for future challenges,
aiming for a profitable dairy production while
maintaining a balanced lifestyle. That tells
you right there, there's demand for practical
bottom line content focused on business success
and sustainability. And you have to listen to
the critics too, right? Like the Bullvine article.
You have to, even if it stings. That article
warning about record losses in revenue and associations
being outpaced by tech and member demands, that's
framing the need for change as pure survival.
It's a necessary wake -up call. What about the
tech side? What are tech leaders saying? People
like Stefano Rattor, formerly at ADM, talk about
agriculture needing to get over its historical
reluctance to collaborate on data. He sees associations
potentially playing that key role as trusted,
neutral data hubs. And you see ag tech companies
like ConnectEra or Inari already building tools
to turn complex data into usable insights for
farmers. That's the direction things are going.
Associations need to be part of that data flow,
not outside it. And finally, the next generation.
The youth winners talking about giving back.
What will they expect when they're running the
show? That's the million dollar question, isn't
it? Will they value the traditions their parents
did? Or will they demand a digital native efficiency
-focused association that speaks their language,
uses the tools they use, and delivers measurable
value for their businesses? Their expectations
will absolutely shape whether these associations
are relevant in 10, 20 years. Okay, so to pull
this together, for breed societies to have a
viable future, say by 2030, they need a major
overhaul. Financial strategy, membership value,
and definitely the whole convention concept.
It's a strategic pivot. First, financially, they
have to move from being just event hosts to being
indispensable value hubs. That means diversifying
revenue. Get away from just relying on registrations
and sponsorships for one big event. Build resilient
income streams. Like offering paid services,
premium data analysis, consulting. Exactly. Fee
-for -service for things like advanced herd benchmarking,
maybe custom mating program consultations, selling
online courses, certifications, digital toolkits.
And that genetics marketplace, a commission -based
platform for embryos, IVF, semen with deep data,
monetize the membership's genetic progress. And
shift corporate support from just sponsoring
the banquet to more year -round partnerships.
Yes, tiered partnerships, giving companies access
to the digital platform, data insights, co -branded
educational content, more stable, more integrated,
more valuable for everyone. And redefining membership
itself, the value proposition. Fundamentally,
the main reason to be a member can't just be
a discount to the convention anymore. It has
to be about accessing indispensable data. tools,
intelligence. The product the association delivers
becomes genetic and management intelligence.
That's sticky value. It gets integrated into
how members run their business every day. Renewal
becomes a no -brainer. And using modern tools
to keep members engaged. Personalizing things.
For sure. Data -driven engagement. Tailoring
communications based on herd size, interests,
goals, creating a seamless digital experience.
Recognizing that for many, the community is going
to be online forums, webinars, shared data platforms,
not just once a year in a hotel ballroom. Meet
them where they are. Okay, so that's the membership
and finance side. What about the convention itself?
You mentioned a portfolio approach. Right. Ditch
the idea of one big monolithic event trying to
be everything to everyone. Replace it with a
portfolio. Maybe that hub and spoke model we
talked about. The hub being a smaller, high -level
summit. Yeah, an exclusive annual leadership
summit. Top 10, 15 % of producers, key partners,
focused on strategy, finance, policy, high -level
peer networking, premium event. And the spokes
are more accessible events. Exactly. Smaller,
more frequent, more targeted. Things like regional
on -farm showcases those data. driven field days
showing tech and genetics in action, specialized
webinars and workshops online focused on specific
technical topics easy to access from anywhere.
And hybrid is non -negotiable. Absolutely non
-negotiable. Every single in -person event needs
a high quality virtual component. Live streaming,
on -demand access, maximize reach, maximize value,
accommodate everyone. It's just standard practice
now. So looking ahead to 2030. It really feels
like two possible paths for these associations.
Starkly different paths. Yeah. Path number one,
they cling to tradition. They keep trying to
do the convention the old way. Maybe just scale
it back a bit. What happens? Conventions shrink.
Membership ages and declines. Finances get tighter
and tighter. They become irrelevant to the commercial
industry. Maybe they survive as historical societies,
hobby clubs, custodians of the past, but no role
in the future. Okay, that's the bleak path. What's
path number two? Path number two. Bold transformation.
They fully embrace this new role as data and
intelligence hubs. They become indispensable
partners, providing the cool and insights farmers
need for 21st century dairying. Their convention
becomes this year -round multi -platform ecosystem,
digital hub, leadership summit, regional showcases,
online learning. By genuinely serving the real
needs of the modern industry, they become more
vital, more influential, and actually more financially
secure. The choice is theirs. The choice is theirs,
and the clock is ticking. Hashtag tag tag outro.
So we've really covered a lot of ground today
in this deep dive, looking at this massive transformation
in North American dairy. And it's undeniable,
isn't it? This isn't some small shift. It's a
complete reshaping, driven by consolidation,
that huge economic divide, and the genetic revolution
basically making the show ring obsolete for commercial
breeding. Yeah, and let's bring back that brutal
math one last time, because it really hits home.
Think about the cost of attending a traditional
convention. The Bullvine article put it at $500
or more per person, easy when you add up registration,
travel, hotel, food, and especially that opportunity
cost of lost time on the farm and the direct
measurable impact of that $500 plus investment
on your herd's milk yield or genetic progress.
Pretty much zero, scientifically speaking. Okay,
now compare that to genomic testing. The article
mentions it costs under $60 an animal, but the
documented return on investment. Through faster
genetic gain, better culling, smarter breeding,
it's cited as 150 -200%. So for that data -driven
farmer making smart business decisions, where
does your limited capital and time go? The $500
plus for the convention with fuzzy ROI, or the
$60 for the test with 150 % plus ROI? The numbers
really do speak for themselves, don't they? They
really do. So maybe the actionable insight for
you listening right now is this. Take a minute,
seriously. Calculate your own cost per engaged
member for the traditional events you go to.
Be honest. Include everything, registration,
travel, meals, lodging, and definitely put a
value on your time away from the farm. Then compare
that number to the provable ROI of other things
you could invest in specific training, technology,
genomic testing. See how they stack up. The results
might surprise you. And that leads to the final,
maybe provocative thought we want to leave you
with. What kind of breed society do you actually
want to be part of in 2030? Do you want one that
clings to, let's call it, tradition without relevance,
celebrating the past while the industry moves
on? Or do you want one that leads the industry
forward, one that embraces data over dogma, results
over ribbons, and maybe, just maybe, profit over
pageantry? Because the future of these vital
institutions, and maybe even a part of the future
of the dairy industry itself, really depends
on that choice. Thanks for joining us on The
Deep Dive. We'll see you next time. That's a
wrap on today's episode of the Bullvine Podcast.
If this discussion has you questioning your own
breed society's relevance or calculating the
ROI on your last convention attendance, that's
exactly the point. The dairy industry is evolving
at breakneck speed, and the organizations that
serve it must evolve too. Whether you're a breed
society executive, a progressive dairy farmer,
or an industry stakeholder, the message is clear.
Data beats dogma. Results beat ribbons, and profit
beats pageantry. Remember, the most successful
dairy operations of 2030 will be supported by
breed societies that embrace transformation today.
The question isn't whether this change will happen.
It's whether your association will lead it or
be buried by it. For more bold, data -driven
dairy industry insights that challenge the status
quo, visit us at www .thebullvine .com. Subscribe
to our newsletter. Join the conversation and
never miss our latest analysis that puts your
profitability first. This has been the Bullvine
Podcast, where sacred cows meet their match,
and your success is our mission. Until next time,
keep questioning everything and demanding measurable
results.