WEBVTT

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Breaking free from the chains of the past Where

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truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law

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waiting on some printed page We're charting new

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ground in the digital age From genomic codes

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to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold

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them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight

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we're sparking Welcome back to the Bullvine Podcast.

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If you're a dairy producer who thinks immigration

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raids only target criminals, you're about to

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get a reality check that could save your operation

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from financial disaster. Today, we're diving

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deep into the labor crisis that's about to crash

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the dairy industry. We're talking about data

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that shows 51 % of your milking crew could vanish

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overnight, potentially triggering a 90 % spike

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in milk prices. This isn't political theater.

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It's cold, hard economics that every dairy operator

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needs to understand. You've invested millions

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in your parlor, optimized your genetics for component

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premiums, and fine -tuned your nutrition programs.

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But here's the uncomfortable truth. Without immigrant

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workers who milk 79 % of America's dairy cows,

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all those investments become worthless overnight.

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So grab your coffee, because we're about to challenge

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everything you think you know about workforce

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stability in dairy farming. This episode could

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be the difference between adapting to survive

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or watching your operation become another casualty

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of policies that ignore economic reality. Let's

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get started. Okay, let's unpack this. We are

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diving deep today into a topic that hits right

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at the core of every dairy operation. Labor,

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specifically, you know, the increasingly volatile

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situation around immigrant labor and what it

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really means for your farm, your balance sheet

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and, well, even the price of milk on the shelf.

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That's right. We've got a critical article from

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the bullvine in front of us, and it pulls absolutely

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no punches about the reality of the situation.

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It really doesn't. And look, this isn't about

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wading into political rhetoric, right? This is

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about. Confronting these stark economic and operational

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realities that are... laid out with real precision

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in this piece. Yeah. The Bullvine article puts

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a potential scenario on the table that might

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sound, well, unbelievable at first glance, a

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projected 90 .4 % milk price hike. Which just

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sounds massive. It does. But the power of the

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article is really how it meticulously walks you

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through the data, showing you why this isn't

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just some sensational headline. It's presented

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as a potential, maybe even probable consequence

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tied directly and mathematically. to the stability

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of the labor force that is currently milking

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the vast majority of America's cows. And that's

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really our mission for this deep dive today.

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To go through the details presented in this specific

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Bullvine article, understanding the, well, the

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harsh realities it describes regarding the dairy

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labor crisis. It's deep and frankly undeniable

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connection to immigration policy and what this

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could fundamentally mean for your operation.

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Regardless of its size, its level of technology,

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or how sophisticated your genetic program might

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be, it really zeroes in on that operational impact.

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The stakes, as the article makes abundantly clear,

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couldn't really be higher for the industry. It

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doesn't shy away from talking about the potential

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for operational collapse on individual farms.

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The very real threat of farms being forced completely

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out of business and the strong suggestion that

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the future of milk production in America, like

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on a national scale, is inextricable link to

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this specific issue. Yeah, an issue that maybe

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many might prefer not to confront directly, perhaps

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because of its complexity or political sensitivity.

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Exactly. But the article forces that confrontation

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based on alterational facts. So let's dive right

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in following the path the article lays out. It

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starts with what it calls an undeniable reality,

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a core assertion that once you see the numbers,

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becomes absolutely fundamental to understanding

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the root of this entire potential crisis. It

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goes straight to the heart of the matter. The

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dairy industry's fundamental, deep -seated dependency

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on immigrant labor. Yeah. It frames this workforce

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not as like supplementary, but as the primary

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engine room, the essential foundation upon which

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current U .S. milk production is built. And the

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numbers it cites from researchers like those

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at Texas A &M University's Center for North American

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Studies, they're not just large, they're absolutely

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massive. Huge. It states that immigrant workers

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milked 79 % of America's dairy cows. 79%. Think

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about that for a second. Truly picture it on

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a national scale. Nearly four out of every five

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cows producing milk in the entire United States

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are being milked by immigrant workers. Staggering

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when you put it like that. That's not a niche

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workforce. That's the mainstream. That is the

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workforce. And extending beyond just the milking

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parlor itself. Looking at the entire farm workforce,

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the article states that immigrants make up 51

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percent of all dairy labor across the country.

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More than half. More than half. That's the entire

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workforce dedicated to dairy farming, from feeding

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crews and herd health to maintenance and field

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work. Right. These aren't marginal percentages

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that you could just, you know, easily backfill

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somehow. These are dominant foundational figures

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in the labor pool that keeps farms running day

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in and day out. And the direct threat, as the

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article frames it, comes squarely from immigration

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crackdowns and what it refers to as political

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theater. Essentially, the policy shifts, the

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enfracement actions, the rhetoric coming out

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of Washington that directly threaten the availability

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and stability of this absolutely central workforce.

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The concern highlighted is the potential for

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a significant portion of this workforce to, quote,

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vanish overnight. Yeah, that phrase really jumps

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out. It does. And in the context of dairy, which.

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as you know better than anyone, is a relentless

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365 day a year, twice daily operation that doesn't

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take weekends, holidays, or snow days off. Never

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stops. The implications of losing a significant

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chunk of your labor pool instantaneously are,

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well, truly devastating. There's just no pause

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button on a dairy farm. The work must continue.

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The article uses a really effective analogy,

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I thought, to drive home why this labor dependency

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is so fundamental to the very operation of a

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dairy farm. Yeah, it does. It compares the reliance

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on this labor force to other practices you would

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just never compromise on, stating it's as fundamental

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to your operation as maintaining proper dry matter

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intake, DMI, or monitoring somatic cell counts,

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SCC. It's a perfect and... Powerful parallel

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for anyone in dairy, isn't it? Just as you would

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never consider feeding your herd half the required

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ration of a carefully balanced TMR and expect

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them to maintain peak lactation curves, utter

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health, and optimal production because you understand

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the biological necessity of DMI. Right. The article

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argues that the U .S. simply cannot logically

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expect to continue producing 79 % of its milk

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supply while simultaneously engaging in policy

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actions that threaten to remove the very workers

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who are essential to performing the physical

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tasks required for that production. So it's not

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just abstract policy debate happening somewhere

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else. Not at all. It's a direct, immediate impact

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on the operational reality, the biological reality

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of the cows, and the economic reality of the

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vast majority of dairy farms in this country.

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It really forces Yeah, because the article suggests

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that collision point isn't hypothetical. It's

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becoming... you know, increasingly likely. Because

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that's where the impact is felt, not on cable

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news, but right there on the ground where the

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work gets done. Exactly. Where the cows are milked,

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the feed is mixed, the calves are cared for,

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the equipment is maintained. That's the front

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line. And the article paints this vivid, almost

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alarming scenario of what that collision looks

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like right there in the milking parlor that you've

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probably invested so heavily in. Imagine your

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investment. Maybe it's that brand new state -of

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-the -art rotary parlor you just finished installing.

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Maybe it cost you $2 .5 million or more, just

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like the example mentioned in the article. You

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put that in for efficiency, for throughput, to

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improve cow flow. Or think about all the progress

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you've made genetically. You've invested years,

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maybe decades, pushing your herd's genetic merit,

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focusing on those valuable component premiums.

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Butterfat climbing consistently to 4 .4 year

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percent. Protein hitting 3 .40 percent, driving

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those pounds of components that are absolutely

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critical for profitability in the competitive

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market forecasted for 2025 and beyond. The article

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delivers a brutal, almost heartbreaking conclusion

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to that scenario. It suggests that if you were

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to lose a significant portion of your milking

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crew using this stark example of 60 percent vanishing

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due to an enforcement action. 50 percent gone.

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That multi -million dollar parlor, that pinnacle

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of efficiency you invested in, becomes nothing

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more, according to the article, than an expensive

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monument to poor workforce planning. Oof. Yeah,

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that phrase carries significant emotional and

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financial weight, doesn't it? It really does.

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The idea that your primary asset, your largest

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single investment, could become effectively useless,

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just sitting idle because the... people needed

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to run it are suddenly gone. It profoundly highlights

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the fact that all the capital investment you

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make, all the genetic progress you achieve through

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careful breeding and management, all the optimization

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of nutrition and management systems, it's all

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built upon a fundamental foundation of reliable,

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skilled labor. Right. And if that foundation

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crumbles, as the article suggests it could under

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current policy approaches, the entire structure

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no matter how impressive or technologically advanced,

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is at severe risk. And to make it clear, this

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isn't just, you know, theoretical speculation.

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The article provides real -world examples of

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specific enforcement actions that have already

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occurred, illustrating precisely how this threat

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manifests on the ground. It cites incidents like

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the one that happened at a dairy farm in Berkshire,

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Vermont, back in 2018, where ICE detained eight

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workers. Eight workers. Yeah. Migrant Justice,

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an organization working with dairy workers, described

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it as the largest single immigrant enforcement

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action against farm workers in Vermont in recent

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history. Imagine the immediate devastating disruption

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that caused on that specific farm. Oh, absolutely.

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Losing eight people from your team all at once,

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instantaneously. Who milks those cows that night?

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Who preps the parlor? The operational chaos is

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immediate. And another example cited is in Sacketts

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Harbor, New York, where ICE picked up four adults

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and three children at a dairy operation in 2020.

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Again, the article emphasizes this as part of

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what the agency called enhanced targeted operations.

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Right. And while there's obviously a huge human

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element and impact on families in every situation

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like this, the article focuses squarely on the

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operational impact on the farm itself, the sudden

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removal of essential workers from critical roles.

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Let's break down, as the article does, what this

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kind of loss means for a hypothetical, but probably

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very real. Dairy operation. Okay. It uses a 500

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cow example, maybe one pushing limits, averaging

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75 pounds per cow per day with excellent components

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like 4 .44 % butter fat. In numbers. Generating

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approximately $315 ,000 in monthly milk revenue

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at current -ish pricing levels. According to

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the article, losing even 50 % of your milking

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staff, not the whole team, just half. Half the

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crew. Doesn't just linearly cut your production

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by 50%. catastrophically disrupts your entire

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operational rhythm. Catastrophically. That's

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a powerful word choice, but likely accurate in

00:12:28.100 --> 00:12:30.059
that scenario. And the article goes on to detail

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the specific practical disruptions that occur.

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Maintaining proper milking intervals, for instance.

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Absolutely critical. Crucial for utter health,

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preventing mastitis, ensuring consistent milk

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flow and production volume. If your crew is halved,

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those 12 -hour or maybe 10 -hour intervals become

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impossible to maintain consistently. Leads to

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cow stress, health issues, lost milk. Exactly.

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It also impacts executing precision feeding protocols

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tying right back to those DMI and ME levels we

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talked about. Yeah. If you can't deliver feed

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bunks correctly or push up feed often enough

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or manage group changes properly because you

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just don't have the people. All that nutritional

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fine tuning just goes out the window. Precisely.

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The complexity of modern dairy management relies

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on the consistent, timely execution of highly

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specific tasks performed by skilled individuals.

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A sudden, drastic reduction in your trained workforce

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means that carefully optimized protocols for

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milking, feeding, cow handling, health monitoring,

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they just fall apart. And the consequences aren't

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minor inefficiencies. They are immediate and

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severe impacts on cow well -being, milk quality,

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production volume, and ultimately... Your bottom

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line. The article also reinforces these points

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with national and state -level data, reiterating

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those initial numbers from Texas A &M University's

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Center for North American Studies. Those big

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ones. The 79 % of milk produced by dairies employing

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immigrant labor and 51 % of the total dairy labor

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force nationwide being immigrant. These aren't

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just statistics. They are the dominant figures

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that define the reality of labor on most commercial

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dairy farms in the U .S. today. And bringing

00:14:06.740 --> 00:14:09.330
it down to a state level, Rick Narabow. who is

00:14:09.330 --> 00:14:11.389
the CEO of the Idaho Dairymen's Association,

00:14:11.809 --> 00:14:14.230
provides powerful context. Yeah, what did he

00:14:14.230 --> 00:14:16.789
say? He estimates that about 90 % of workers

00:14:16.789 --> 00:14:19.490
on Idaho dairy farms specifically come from other

00:14:19.490 --> 00:14:23.570
countries. 90 % in Idaho. Yeah. Idaho is a major

00:14:23.570 --> 00:14:26.009
dairy state, so this figure adds significant

00:14:26.009 --> 00:14:28.750
geographic weight to the national picture, showing

00:14:28.750 --> 00:14:31.549
just how deeply embedded and essential this workforce

00:14:31.549 --> 00:14:34.509
is in major production areas. It's not just a

00:14:34.509 --> 00:14:37.190
national average, it's a localized reality for

00:14:37.190 --> 00:14:39.259
many. And the University of Wisconsin -Madison

00:14:39.259 --> 00:14:41.360
School of Workers study cited in the article

00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:44.320
as another crucial, maybe uncomfortable layer

00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:47.440
to this reality, finding that somewhere between

00:14:47.440 --> 00:14:50.100
46 percent and 70 percent of immigrant dairy

00:14:50.100 --> 00:14:53.179
workers are currently undocumented. And this

00:14:53.179 --> 00:14:55.480
statistic is absolutely key to understanding

00:14:55.480 --> 00:14:58.139
the depth of the crisis and the vulnerability

00:14:58.139 --> 00:15:00.570
the article highlights. Why is that? Because

00:15:00.570 --> 00:15:02.830
it means that a very large portion of this essential

00:15:02.830 --> 00:15:06.129
workforce, the people milking your cows, feeding

00:15:06.129 --> 00:15:08.429
your herd, maintaining your equipment, are particularly

00:15:08.429 --> 00:15:11.870
vulnerable to enforcement actions. Their legal

00:15:11.870 --> 00:15:14.889
status, or lack thereof, is the direct link between

00:15:14.889 --> 00:15:17.289
federal immigration policy and the fundamental

00:15:17.289 --> 00:15:20.070
stability of your farm's labor force. It creates

00:15:20.070 --> 00:15:22.870
a direct pathway for political decisions to translate

00:15:22.870 --> 00:15:25.730
into immediate operational risk. So, to summarize

00:15:25.730 --> 00:15:28.149
this foundational section. The article concludes

00:15:28.149 --> 00:15:32.210
by reinforcing with stark clarity that most dairy

00:15:32.210 --> 00:15:34.970
operations face immediate operational collapse

00:15:34.970 --> 00:15:38.289
if enforcement proceeds at current rates. It's

00:15:38.289 --> 00:15:41.990
a powerful and uncomfortable warning, isn't it?

00:15:42.070 --> 00:15:45.269
It is. And it defines immediate operational collapse

00:15:45.269 --> 00:15:48.210
not just as reduced profits or tighter margins.

00:15:48.470 --> 00:15:50.610
No, it's more fundamental. But as potentially

00:15:50.610 --> 00:15:53.929
being unable to continue the core non -negotiable

00:15:53.929 --> 00:15:56.789
functions of the farm, like milking the herd.

00:15:57.200 --> 00:15:59.840
twice a day, every single day. Yes. The article's

00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:01.419
definition of collapse gets right to the heart

00:16:01.419 --> 00:16:04.039
of it. It's the inability to perform those essential

00:16:04.039 --> 00:16:06.980
time -sensitive tasks consistently and correctly,

00:16:07.220 --> 00:16:09.899
the very tasks that maintain herd health, production,

00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:12.139
and milk quality. If you can't milk your cows

00:16:12.139 --> 00:16:14.740
on schedule every day, you're not just less profitable.

00:16:14.879 --> 00:16:17.100
You're facing a cascade of animal welfare issues

00:16:17.100 --> 00:16:19.460
and potential cessation of operations. It's an

00:16:19.460 --> 00:16:22.039
existential threat. Now, the article moves to

00:16:22.039 --> 00:16:24.200
underscore these points with the hard economic

00:16:24.200 --> 00:16:27.720
numbers, diving deep into the staggering projections

00:16:27.720 --> 00:16:30.519
of what this labor loss would mean for the entire

00:16:30.519 --> 00:16:33.919
dairy economy, not just individual farms. It

00:16:33.919 --> 00:16:36.059
reiterates those national data points we just

00:16:36.059 --> 00:16:39.740
discussed from Texas A &M, the 79 % of milk from

00:16:39.740 --> 00:16:43.220
dairies with immigrant labor, the 51 % immigrant

00:16:43.220 --> 00:16:45.779
dairy labor force. These are the figures that

00:16:45.779 --> 00:16:48.100
provide the baseline for the economic modeling.

00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:50.580
And again, Idaho example from Rick Narebout,

00:16:50.779 --> 00:16:53.299
90 % of workers from other countries on those

00:16:53.299 --> 00:16:55.519
dairies just solidifies that these percentages

00:16:55.519 --> 00:16:58.539
aren't uniform, but are incredibly high in key

00:16:58.539 --> 00:17:00.620
production states. And the University of Wisconsin

00:17:00.620 --> 00:17:03.980
-Madison study's finding of 46 -70 % of immigrant

00:17:03.980 --> 00:17:06.740
workers being undocumented is central to why

00:17:06.740 --> 00:17:08.779
the economic projections are so dire. Because

00:17:08.779 --> 00:17:11.299
that defines the pool at risk. Exactly. It defines

00:17:11.299 --> 00:17:13.539
the pool of workers most directly exposed to

00:17:13.539 --> 00:17:15.569
enforcement risk. Right. So the article uses

00:17:15.569 --> 00:17:18.410
these baseline figures to launch into this massive

00:17:18.410 --> 00:17:20.890
economic analysis derived from Texas A &M University

00:17:20.890 --> 00:17:23.529
using the Implan model. Which is a pretty standard

00:17:23.529 --> 00:17:25.569
tool for this kind of economic impact study.

00:17:25.769 --> 00:17:28.569
For those maybe unfamiliar, the Implan model

00:17:28.569 --> 00:17:31.369
is essentially a sophisticated economic simulation

00:17:31.369 --> 00:17:34.920
tool. Researchers input changes like a reduction

00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:37.299
in a specific labor force within an industry.

00:17:37.500 --> 00:17:40.460
And the model helps trace how that change ripples

00:17:40.460 --> 00:17:42.579
throughout the entire economy, impacting related

00:17:42.579 --> 00:17:45.940
industries, jobs, wages, overall output. And

00:17:45.940 --> 00:17:47.819
the article presents these numbers derived from

00:17:47.819 --> 00:17:51.299
the model with mathematical precision, treating

00:17:51.299 --> 00:17:55.089
labor as a critical input. Just like feed or

00:17:55.089 --> 00:17:57.630
land. It gives us a clear baseline first. Yeah.

00:17:57.789 --> 00:17:59.569
The current economic contribution of the dairy

00:17:59.569 --> 00:18:01.970
industry with its current immigrant labor force.

00:18:02.150 --> 00:18:04.970
Okay, what's that look like? Totals $48 .1 billion

00:18:04.970 --> 00:18:08.609
in nationwide economic activity, supporting 303

00:18:08.609 --> 00:18:11.809
,300 jobs across various sectors and generating

00:18:11.809 --> 00:18:15.049
$19 .6 billion in value added to the economy.

00:18:15.269 --> 00:18:17.470
So significant current contributions that the

00:18:17.470 --> 00:18:19.170
article argues are directly dependent on this

00:18:19.170 --> 00:18:21.529
labor pool. Exactly. Then it models different

00:18:21.529 --> 00:18:23.730
scenarios based on losing that labor. After a

00:18:23.730 --> 00:18:26.170
50 % reduction in immigrant labor, meaning half

00:18:26.170 --> 00:18:29.049
of that 51 % workforce is gone. The article states

00:18:29.049 --> 00:18:32.930
these economic values crash significantly. Nationwide

00:18:32.930 --> 00:18:36.250
economic activity falls dramatically to $36 .9

00:18:36.250 --> 00:18:39.750
billion. Wow, that's over $11 billion gone. Yeah.

00:18:39.890 --> 00:18:43.490
Job support drops sharply to 235 ,000 positions.

00:18:43.710 --> 00:18:47.410
And the value added decreases to $15 .1 billion.

00:18:48.009 --> 00:18:50.849
That's a loss of nearly 70 ,000 jobs just from

00:18:50.849 --> 00:18:53.390
a 50 % reduction. That's not a small dip. That's

00:18:53.390 --> 00:18:55.809
a massive contraction. And in the scenario of

00:18:55.809 --> 00:18:57.890
complete elimination of this labor force, if

00:18:57.890 --> 00:19:00.470
virtually all immigrant dairy workers were removed.

00:19:00.730 --> 00:19:03.250
Which is the extreme scenario. The figures plummet

00:19:03.250 --> 00:19:05.890
even further. Economic activity collapses to

00:19:05.890 --> 00:19:10.769
$25 .7 billion. Only 168 ,100 jobs are supported

00:19:10.769 --> 00:19:13.190
and the value added shrinks to $10 .5 billion.

00:19:13.549 --> 00:19:15.650
So we're talking about a total loss of over $22

00:19:15.650 --> 00:19:19.130
billion in economic activity and over 130 ,000

00:19:19.130 --> 00:19:21.539
jobs compared to the baseline. The scale of the

00:19:21.539 --> 00:19:23.680
economic loss depicted by this model is truly

00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:25.720
staggering and far -reaching. The article brings

00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:27.859
this massive economic impact back down to the

00:19:27.859 --> 00:19:30.240
farm level using another relatable analogy, connecting

00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:32.259
the macro numbers to your feed program. Yeah,

00:19:32.279 --> 00:19:34.519
I like this one. It says, think of it as developing

00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:38.660
the perfect total mixed ration, TMR, for peak

00:19:38.660 --> 00:19:41.920
metabolizable energy, ME levels. Spending all

00:19:41.920 --> 00:19:45.019
that time, expertise, money, getting it just

00:19:45.019 --> 00:19:47.160
right. Then discovering that your feed mixer

00:19:47.160 --> 00:19:50.180
operator might disappear tomorrow. It's such

00:19:50.180 --> 00:19:52.539
a perfect way to capture the fundamental disconnect

00:19:52.539 --> 00:19:55.400
the industry often faces, isn't it? It really

00:19:55.400 --> 00:19:58.640
is. You can optimize every physical input, every

00:19:58.640 --> 00:20:01.299
biological process. But if you don't have the

00:20:01.299 --> 00:20:03.900
reliable human labor to execute the most basic

00:20:03.900 --> 00:20:06.440
tasks like running the equipment to deliver that

00:20:06.440 --> 00:20:09.940
TMR, all that optimization is, well, academic.

00:20:10.559 --> 00:20:13.000
The article's point is crystal clear here. You

00:20:13.000 --> 00:20:15.599
can invest in the best genetics, fine -tune your

00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:18.039
nutrition program down to the last gram of protein,

00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:21.059
implement the most sophisticated management systems,

00:20:21.299 --> 00:20:23.960
invest heavily in cutting -edge technology. All

00:20:23.960 --> 00:20:25.779
the things smart producers do. But all of those

00:20:25.779 --> 00:20:28.880
sophisticated, expensive investments become effectively

00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:31.180
worthless, stranded assets, if you don't have

00:20:31.180 --> 00:20:34.039
the skilled workers required to execute the precision

00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.700
protocols day in and day out. The human element

00:20:36.700 --> 00:20:38.980
is presented as the non -negotiable foundation

00:20:38.980 --> 00:20:41.640
for everything else. The article details other

00:20:41.640 --> 00:20:43.980
staggering projections based on broader research

00:20:43.980 --> 00:20:46.599
that support this economic picture. It suggests

00:20:46.599 --> 00:20:48.980
that eliminating immigrant labor could reduce

00:20:48.980 --> 00:20:52.440
the U .S. dairy herd by a massive 2 .1 million

00:20:52.440 --> 00:20:56.539
cows. 2 .1 million cows. Think about the scale

00:20:56.539 --> 00:20:59.119
of that reduction that's potentially losing the

00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:00.960
equivalent of the entire dairy populations of

00:21:00.960 --> 00:21:03.980
several major dairy states combined. And correspondingly

00:21:03.980 --> 00:21:06.759
slash national milk production by a projected

00:21:06.759 --> 00:21:10.240
48 .4 billion pounds annually. is huge. What's

00:21:10.240 --> 00:21:12.299
the total U .S. production, roughly? Currently

00:21:12.299 --> 00:21:17.519
around 220, 230 billion pounds. So 48 .4 billion

00:21:17.519 --> 00:21:20.200
pounds is roughly a quarter to a fifth of the

00:21:20.200 --> 00:21:22.319
entire national supply, just vanishing from the

00:21:22.319 --> 00:21:24.059
market, according to these projections. That

00:21:24.059 --> 00:21:25.759
would fundamentally reshape the dairy landscape,

00:21:25.900 --> 00:21:28.460
prices would. Well, that 90 % figure starts to

00:21:28.460 --> 00:21:31.140
seem less theoretical. Exactly. It also projects

00:21:31.140 --> 00:21:33.940
forcing 7 ,011 dairy farms completely out of

00:21:33.940 --> 00:21:36.339
business. Over 7 ,000 farms. That's a huge number

00:21:36.339 --> 00:21:37.880
of operations. That's families, communities.

00:21:38.630 --> 00:21:41.309
Generations, often. Immense disruption to rural

00:21:41.309 --> 00:21:43.910
communities that rely on these businesses. And

00:21:43.910 --> 00:21:46.549
a significant restructuring of the entire U .S.

00:21:46.569 --> 00:21:49.349
dairy industry. Potentially consolidating production

00:21:49.349 --> 00:21:51.809
onto far fewer, larger farms that might somehow

00:21:51.809 --> 00:21:54.390
manage to adapt or weather the storm. And the

00:21:54.390 --> 00:21:56.309
economic ripple effects don't stop at the farm

00:21:56.309 --> 00:21:58.890
gate, do they? No, they extend far beyond, across

00:21:58.890 --> 00:22:01.509
the entire agricultural supply chain that supports

00:22:01.509 --> 00:22:04.309
dairy and is supported by dairy. The article

00:22:04.309 --> 00:22:07.789
mentions a projected $32 .1 billion reduction

00:22:07.789 --> 00:22:10.450
in output across that entire supply chain. And

00:22:10.450 --> 00:22:14.769
a corresponding loss of 208 ,208 jobs across

00:22:14.769 --> 00:22:17.349
that same supply chain. Wow. So jobs in feed

00:22:17.349 --> 00:22:19.769
mills, vet supply companies, equipment manufacturers,

00:22:20.349 --> 00:22:23.390
transport, processing plants, distributors, retail.

00:22:23.569 --> 00:22:26.309
The whole network. This crisis isn't confined

00:22:26.309 --> 00:22:28.650
to the milking parlor. Its economic impact is

00:22:28.650 --> 00:22:31.230
felt across the vast network connected to dairy.

00:22:31.369 --> 00:22:33.269
Broader economic research cited in the article

00:22:33.269 --> 00:22:35.869
suggests that mass deportations across the economy,

00:22:36.009 --> 00:22:37.829
of which agricultural labor is a significant

00:22:37.829 --> 00:22:41.089
part, could reduce overall U .S. GDP by anywhere

00:22:41.089 --> 00:22:44.490
from 2 .6 percent to a staggering 6 .2 percent

00:22:44.490 --> 00:22:47.029
over the next decade. That's huge for the whole

00:22:47.029 --> 00:22:49.549
country's economy. With agriculture specifically

00:22:49.549 --> 00:22:52.470
facing projected annual losses of $60 billion

00:22:52.470 --> 00:22:55.309
across all sectors. And the article highlights

00:22:55.309 --> 00:22:58.170
that states with large immigrant populations

00:22:58.170 --> 00:23:01.589
and significant agricultural sectors, specifically

00:23:01.589 --> 00:23:03.849
mentioned in California, Texas, and Florida.

00:23:04.029 --> 00:23:06.210
The key dairy states. Which are also key dairy

00:23:06.210 --> 00:23:08.490
production regions, would likely face the most

00:23:08.490 --> 00:23:11.569
severe and immediate economic impacts from such

00:23:11.569 --> 00:23:14.710
labor disruptions. So the crisis would hit hardest

00:23:14.710 --> 00:23:17.650
precisely where milk production is most concentrated.

00:23:18.109 --> 00:23:20.329
The article also includes a finding that might

00:23:20.329 --> 00:23:23.710
be uncomfortable or counterintuitive for some,

00:23:23.829 --> 00:23:27.029
referencing historical data from previous large

00:23:27.029 --> 00:23:29.369
-scale deportation campaigns. What does it say

00:23:29.369 --> 00:23:31.769
about those? It states that these previous campaigns,

00:23:32.089 --> 00:23:34.529
contrary to some assumptions, didn't increase

00:23:34.529 --> 00:23:37.589
wages or job opportunities for U .S.-born workers

00:23:37.589 --> 00:23:40.880
in the sectors affected. Interesting. So it didn't

00:23:40.880 --> 00:23:43.119
help native -born workers. In fact, instead of

00:23:43.119 --> 00:23:45.420
boosting wages and employment for native -born

00:23:45.420 --> 00:23:47.980
workers, as some might assume, such actions,

00:23:48.000 --> 00:23:50.339
according to the historical data presented, actually

00:23:50.339 --> 00:23:53.500
lowered wages and contributed to job losses overall.

00:23:53.740 --> 00:23:56.940
Lowered wages. It cites a specific statistic

00:23:56.940 --> 00:23:59.660
to illustrate this point. Removing an estimated

00:23:59.660 --> 00:24:03.039
500 ,000 immigrants from the labor market could

00:24:03.039 --> 00:24:07.019
potentially lead to 44 ,000 fewer jobs for U

00:24:07.019 --> 00:24:09.599
.S.-born workers across the economy. Fewer jobs

00:24:09.599 --> 00:24:11.960
for U .S. workers? That does seem counterintuitive.

00:24:12.140 --> 00:24:14.420
It directly challenges a common assumption about

00:24:14.420 --> 00:24:16.660
the economic effects of removing immigrant labor.

00:24:16.859 --> 00:24:19.480
It's a crucial, if potentially controversial,

00:24:19.579 --> 00:24:21.940
point from the article that warrants careful

00:24:21.940 --> 00:24:25.019
consideration. presented here impartially as

00:24:25.019 --> 00:24:27.460
a finding within the source material. It suggests

00:24:27.460 --> 00:24:30.200
a much more complex economic reality than just

00:24:30.200 --> 00:24:32.660
simply replacing one worker with another. Which

00:24:32.660 --> 00:24:34.579
brings us neatly to the idea that technology,

00:24:34.839 --> 00:24:36.500
you know, the precision agriculture revolution

00:24:36.500 --> 00:24:38.720
we discussed earlier, is going to be the silver

00:24:38.720 --> 00:24:40.539
bullet that solves this labor challenge. Right,

00:24:40.599 --> 00:24:42.299
just automate everything. Essentially allowing

00:24:42.299 --> 00:24:45.160
farms to operate with far fewer people. The article

00:24:45.160 --> 00:24:47.680
acknowledges the incredible advancements in precision

00:24:47.680 --> 00:24:50.819
ag within dairy. We see it everywhere now. Automated

00:24:50.819 --> 00:24:53.900
milking systems, AMS, sophisticated activity

00:24:53.900 --> 00:24:56.099
monitoring callers providing real -time data

00:24:56.099 --> 00:24:59.099
on... health and heat. Advanced real -time data

00:24:59.099 --> 00:25:02.759
analytics platforms guiding everything from individual

00:25:02.759 --> 00:25:05.359
cow nutrition to predict your health interventions.

00:25:05.640 --> 00:25:07.900
Absolutely. These technologies have definitely

00:25:07.900 --> 00:25:10.539
been instrumental in enabling things like higher

00:25:10.539 --> 00:25:13.299
component percentages, pushing butterfat to 4

00:25:13.299 --> 00:25:16.980
.4 euro percent and beyond, and driving significant

00:25:16.980 --> 00:25:20.059
efficiency gains. But... There's always a but,

00:25:20.160 --> 00:25:22.660
isn't there? There is. The article delivers a

00:25:22.660 --> 00:25:25.019
crucial reality check here, describing it as

00:25:25.019 --> 00:25:27.940
the uncomfortable truth that industry leaders

00:25:27.940 --> 00:25:30.380
and policymakers sometimes refuse to acknowledge.

00:25:30.680 --> 00:25:32.880
And what's that truth? Even the most sophisticated,

00:25:33.200 --> 00:25:35.380
technologically advanced dairy operations, the

00:25:35.380 --> 00:25:37.440
article argues, remain fundamentally dependent

00:25:37.440 --> 00:25:40.140
on human expertise and skill to function effectively.

00:25:40.519 --> 00:25:43.359
Ah, so tech doesn't eliminate the need for smart

00:25:43.359 --> 00:25:46.190
people. And it's quite clear and firm about this.

00:25:46.250 --> 00:25:48.690
This essential expertise, the nuanced understanding

00:25:48.690 --> 00:25:52.329
of cows, equipment, complex systems, it can't

00:25:52.329 --> 00:25:54.769
simply be automated away with the push of a button.

00:25:54.869 --> 00:25:57.390
It uses the AMS example to illustrate this point

00:25:57.390 --> 00:26:00.190
vividly, doesn't it? It does. Yeah. Even installing

00:26:00.190 --> 00:26:02.769
a multi -million dollar robotic milking system

00:26:02.769 --> 00:26:05.269
setup doesn't eliminate the need for skilled

00:26:05.269 --> 00:26:07.789
workers. It changes the type of skills needed.

00:26:08.109 --> 00:26:10.910
Right. You still need highly competent technicians.

00:26:11.849 --> 00:26:14.809
for routine maintenance, for troubleshooting

00:26:14.809 --> 00:26:17.210
when things inevitably go wrong, which they do,

00:26:17.329 --> 00:26:19.410
and for monitoring herd health signals that the

00:26:19.410 --> 00:26:22.289
robots might flag but require human interpretation

00:26:22.289 --> 00:26:25.190
and intervention. The article uses a very relatable

00:26:25.190 --> 00:26:27.670
scenario for any farmer, needing experienced

00:26:27.670 --> 00:26:31.430
workers at 3 a .m. during peak lactation when

00:26:31.430 --> 00:26:34.480
one of your critical AMS units goes down. Been

00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:36.480
there, done that feeling. In that moment, you

00:26:36.480 --> 00:26:38.660
don't just need someone who can follow a basic

00:26:38.660 --> 00:26:41.619
checklist. You need experienced workers who understand

00:26:41.619 --> 00:26:44.279
both the complex technology involved and cow

00:26:44.279 --> 00:26:46.200
behavior. And can work under pressure. Who can

00:26:46.200 --> 00:26:48.319
quickly diagnose the problem and get the system

00:26:48.319 --> 00:26:50.500
back up and running. You can't simply hire someone

00:26:50.500 --> 00:26:52.779
off Craigslist with no dairy or technical experience

00:26:52.779 --> 00:26:55.160
to handle that kind of high -pressure situation.

00:26:55.759 --> 00:26:58.119
No way. The article also connects the significant

00:26:58.119 --> 00:27:00.839
cost of technology directly to the labor issue.

00:27:01.150 --> 00:27:04.190
A robotic installation is a massive capital investment.

00:27:04.390 --> 00:27:08.549
It's huge. Potentially $150 ,000 to $275 ,000

00:27:08.549 --> 00:27:11.130
per robot unit, plus substantial infrastructure

00:27:11.130 --> 00:27:13.609
upgrades. And the crucial point the article makes

00:27:13.609 --> 00:27:16.029
is that for operations already struggling with

00:27:16.029 --> 00:27:19.710
volatile milk prices, thin margins, and labor

00:27:19.710 --> 00:27:22.329
instability. Which is a lot of operations. These

00:27:22.329 --> 00:27:25.349
massive capital investments require a stable,

00:27:25.450 --> 00:27:28.569
skilled workforce not only to operate the technology,

00:27:28.670 --> 00:27:31.509
but to justify the significant return on investment,

00:27:31.690 --> 00:27:35.569
ROI. Right. downtime caused by lack of skilled

00:27:35.569 --> 00:27:38.849
labor to fix a robot is lost milk, lost revenue,

00:27:39.029 --> 00:27:41.730
directly impacting that ROI calculation. And

00:27:41.730 --> 00:27:43.650
research concerns this point, according to a

00:27:43.650 --> 00:27:45.910
specific study cited in the article. It found

00:27:45.910 --> 00:27:48.250
that farms implementing AMS actually maintained

00:27:48.250 --> 00:27:50.250
essentially the same total number of employees

00:27:50.250 --> 00:27:52.990
after the installation as they had before. That's

00:27:52.990 --> 00:27:54.890
a critical detail that really flies in the face

00:27:54.890 --> 00:27:57.150
of the tech replaces workers assumption, doesn't

00:27:57.150 --> 00:28:00.000
it? It does. The jobs changed roles, becoming

00:28:00.000 --> 00:28:02.599
less physically demanding in some aspects, but

00:28:02.599 --> 00:28:04.759
often demanding higher skilled workers capable

00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:07.799
of managing complex computer systems, data analytics,

00:28:07.980 --> 00:28:10.279
and sophisticated equipment maintenance. Which

00:28:10.279 --> 00:28:12.119
leads to the article's conclusion on this point.

00:28:12.430 --> 00:28:14.170
The assumption that automation fundamentally

00:28:14.170 --> 00:28:17.890
reduces overall labor needs in dairy is presented

00:28:17.890 --> 00:28:20.950
as flawed. Right. Rather than eliminating the

00:28:20.950 --> 00:28:23.029
need for people, it changes the nature of the

00:28:23.029 --> 00:28:25.690
requirements, demanding a different type of skilled

00:28:25.690 --> 00:28:28.029
labor, often a higher level of technical and

00:28:28.029 --> 00:28:30.710
analytical skill. So if technology isn't the

00:28:30.710 --> 00:28:33.319
universal silver bullet, What about the H -2A

00:28:33.319 --> 00:28:36.000
program? It's often pointed to by policymakers

00:28:36.000 --> 00:28:39.740
and industry stakeholders as the existing solution

00:28:39.740 --> 00:28:42.640
for agricultural labor shortages. And the article

00:28:42.640 --> 00:28:44.460
acknowledges the program's significant growth,

00:28:44.680 --> 00:28:46.700
highlighting its expansion from issuing just

00:28:46.700 --> 00:28:51.599
44 visas in 1987 to approving over 378 ,000 temporary

00:28:51.599 --> 00:28:54.980
positions in fiscal year 2023. On paper, that

00:28:54.980 --> 00:28:57.220
sounds like a robust system providing a large

00:28:57.220 --> 00:29:00.420
pool of workers. It does. But the article meticulously

00:29:00.420 --> 00:29:02.519
explains why it funds fundamentally fails to

00:29:02.519 --> 00:29:05.440
address dairy's core labor needs, citing USDA

00:29:05.440 --> 00:29:07.920
data on the program's structure. What's the core

00:29:07.920 --> 00:29:10.700
problem? The core insurmountable problem, according

00:29:10.700 --> 00:29:13.319
to the article, is that H -2A is designed for

00:29:13.319 --> 00:29:16.599
temporary or seasonal labor requirements. Yeah.

00:29:17.059 --> 00:29:19.819
The average certification duration for an H -2A

00:29:19.819 --> 00:29:23.839
job in fiscal 2023 was only 5 .75 months. Just

00:29:23.839 --> 00:29:26.000
under six months. The fundamental mismatch for

00:29:26.000 --> 00:29:30.059
dairy is glaringly obvious. Cows need milking

00:29:30.059 --> 00:29:34.259
365 days a year, twice daily, without any seasonal

00:29:34.259 --> 00:29:36.559
breaks or downtime. Right. Dairy's essential

00:29:36.559 --> 00:29:40.039
labor needs are year -round, non -seasonal, continuous.

00:29:40.500 --> 00:29:43.319
The H -2A program in its current form simply

00:29:43.319 --> 00:29:46.140
is not built for that reality. And the cost implications

00:29:46.140 --> 00:29:48.599
of using H -2A for year -round work, even if

00:29:48.599 --> 00:29:50.880
it were somehow structured differently, are significant,

00:29:51.059 --> 00:29:53.940
and the article argues... probably prohibitive

00:29:53.940 --> 00:29:56.140
for dairy margins. He references analysis from

00:29:56.140 --> 00:29:58.539
Michigan State University economist Zach Rutledge.

00:29:58.740 --> 00:30:00.880
What did he find? He estimates that while domestic

00:30:00.880 --> 00:30:03.640
workers might cost $15, $25 per hour, including

00:30:03.640 --> 00:30:06.400
payroll taxes, H -2A workers can cost almost

00:30:06.400 --> 00:30:09.519
twice as much, in the range of $25, $30 per hour.

00:30:09.680 --> 00:30:12.579
Wow, nearly double. And that $25, $30 figure

00:30:12.579 --> 00:30:14.759
he notes in the article emphasizes... is just

00:30:14.759 --> 00:30:16.779
the wage cost. The total cost is significantly

00:30:16.779 --> 00:30:18.940
higher when factoring in mandatory requirements

00:30:18.940 --> 00:30:21.180
like providing housing, transportation, and other

00:30:21.180 --> 00:30:23.279
expenses for H -2A workers. Which are substantial

00:30:23.279 --> 00:30:26.539
costs. Absolutely. For dairy operations already

00:30:26.539 --> 00:30:29.180
running on razor -thin margins, facing volatile

00:30:29.180 --> 00:30:32.700
milk prices, that represents a substantial, potentially

00:30:32.700 --> 00:30:35.619
unsustainable financial burden for their core

00:30:35.619 --> 00:30:38.299
labor needs. The article mentions the National

00:30:38.299 --> 00:30:41.740
Milk Producers Federation, NMPF, lobbying efforts

00:30:41.740 --> 00:30:44.960
to try and expand H -2A access for year -round

00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:46.799
dairy operations. We've been working on this

00:30:46.799 --> 00:30:49.470
for years. Highlighting a persistent frustration

00:30:49.470 --> 00:30:52.650
and, frankly, an irony. Even sectors like sheep

00:30:52.650 --> 00:30:55.309
herding, another year -round animal ag enterprise,

00:30:55.670 --> 00:30:59.150
have somehow gained access to H2A for their core,

00:30:59.250 --> 00:31:02.329
continuous labor needs. But not dairy. But dairy,

00:31:02.470 --> 00:31:05.049
a multi -billion dollar industry foundational

00:31:05.049 --> 00:31:07.549
to the U .S. food supply, still does not have

00:31:07.549 --> 00:31:10.329
H2A access for its essential year -round milking

00:31:10.329 --> 00:31:12.569
and herd management labor. And despite years

00:31:12.569 --> 00:31:15.049
of effort and advocacy, the article states the

00:31:15.049 --> 00:31:17.960
persistent reality clearly. Dairy farms currently

00:31:17.960 --> 00:31:20.400
do not have access to the H -2A farmworker program

00:31:20.400 --> 00:31:22.940
for their essential non -seasonal labor needs.

00:31:23.119 --> 00:31:25.720
So it remains a program fundamentally unsuited

00:31:25.720 --> 00:31:28.240
and unavailable for the core workforce required

00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:30.720
to milk cows every day of the year. Pretty much.

00:31:30.880 --> 00:31:33.940
The bottom line on H -2A, according to the article's

00:31:33.940 --> 00:31:37.119
analysis, is that while it might serve its purpose

00:31:37.119 --> 00:31:40.400
for seasonal fruit and vegetable crops with defined

00:31:40.400 --> 00:31:42.980
harvest periods and potentially higher margins

00:31:42.980 --> 00:31:47.240
per acre, it is presented as economically devastating

00:31:47.240 --> 00:31:50.880
and practically impossible for dairy operations

00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:53.740
that have thin margins and non -negotiable year

00:31:53.740 --> 00:31:55.740
-round labor requirements. And it's not just

00:31:55.740 --> 00:31:58.240
the year -round aspect, is it? It's the skills,

00:31:58.259 --> 00:32:00.400
too. Exactly. The specialized skills required

00:32:00.400 --> 00:32:02.539
for dairy work, handling large animals safely,

00:32:02.720 --> 00:32:05.400
operating complex milking equipment, identifying

00:32:05.400 --> 00:32:07.970
subtle signs of illness. understanding feeding

00:32:07.970 --> 00:32:10.390
protocols. These aren't skills quickly acquired

00:32:10.390 --> 00:32:12.630
by a temporary workforce rotating every six months.

00:32:12.750 --> 00:32:15.250
Dairy requires experienced people. And H -2A

00:32:15.250 --> 00:32:17.970
is just not built for long -term skilled employee

00:32:17.970 --> 00:32:20.710
retention in that context. The article then shifts

00:32:20.710 --> 00:32:23.130
gears a bit, moving from problem analysis to

00:32:23.130 --> 00:32:26.289
what it calls smart producers are already adapting.

00:32:26.549 --> 00:32:28.150
Okay, so what are they doing? The point here

00:32:28.150 --> 00:32:30.190
is that forward -thinking, resilient operations

00:32:30.190 --> 00:32:33.569
aren't sitting back, passively waiting for Washington

00:32:33.569 --> 00:32:36.410
to suddenly pass perfect legislation. Because

00:32:36.410 --> 00:32:38.690
that could be a long wait. They are proactively

00:32:38.690 --> 00:32:41.210
taking action on their own farms, implementing

00:32:41.210 --> 00:32:44.769
strategies to build resilience against this ongoing

00:32:44.769 --> 00:32:47.690
crisis. And the article suggests that these proactive

00:32:47.690 --> 00:32:50.109
strategies are what will ultimately separate

00:32:50.109 --> 00:32:54.490
the survivors from casualties as the labor crisis

00:32:54.490 --> 00:32:57.849
deepens. Hoping for a policy fix isn't a viable

00:32:57.849 --> 00:33:00.750
operational plan, basically. Right. So what's

00:33:00.750 --> 00:33:03.730
strategy one? The first major strategy detailed

00:33:03.730 --> 00:33:06.529
is comprehensive worker retention and development

00:33:06.529 --> 00:33:09.130
programs. This goes way beyond just paying a

00:33:09.130 --> 00:33:11.759
wage. Okay, like what? What these programs include,

00:33:11.940 --> 00:33:13.759
according to the article, are addressing workers'

00:33:13.960 --> 00:33:16.359
long -term needs and well -being through tangible

00:33:16.359 --> 00:33:19.319
support systems. This can involve providing or

00:33:19.319 --> 00:33:21.259
assisting with access to health care, offering

00:33:21.259 --> 00:33:24.619
housing assistance or high -quality on -farm

00:33:24.619 --> 00:33:26.859
housing, providing English language training

00:33:26.859 --> 00:33:29.460
to improve communication and integration, and

00:33:29.460 --> 00:33:31.720
creating skills development pathways within the

00:33:31.720 --> 00:33:33.740
operation to offer opportunities for advancement.

00:33:34.019 --> 00:33:36.910
So investing in the people you have. Exactly.

00:33:37.049 --> 00:33:39.910
The core argument presented here is that investing

00:33:39.910 --> 00:33:42.210
meaningfully in worker stability and well -being

00:33:42.210 --> 00:33:44.950
isn't just, you know, a humanitarian concern.

00:33:45.069 --> 00:33:47.970
It's a direct investment in operational resilience.

00:33:48.289 --> 00:33:50.650
Makes sense. The article frames it as protecting

00:33:50.650 --> 00:33:53.250
your existing massive investments in genetics

00:33:53.250 --> 00:33:56.970
and technology and management systems. A stable,

00:33:56.970 --> 00:33:59.509
skilled workforce is what makes all those other

00:33:59.509 --> 00:34:01.630
investments actually pay off. And the article

00:34:01.630 --> 00:34:03.890
cites a crucial statistic that powerfully backs

00:34:03.890 --> 00:34:06.400
this up. What's that? Research shows that dairy

00:34:06.400 --> 00:34:09.059
operations with stable workforces, farms with

00:34:09.059 --> 00:34:11.699
lower turnover rates, and more experienced staff

00:34:11.699 --> 00:34:14.840
consistently achieve significantly higher rolling

00:34:14.840 --> 00:34:18.519
herd averages, RHA, often 12 % higher or more.

00:34:18.659 --> 00:34:21.860
12 % higher RHA? That's massive. And experience

00:34:21.860 --> 00:34:24.340
dramatically lower productivity losses directly

00:34:24.340 --> 00:34:26.800
related to high employee turnover and constant

00:34:26.800 --> 00:34:29.949
retraining. Think about what a 12 % higher RHA

00:34:29.949 --> 00:34:33.050
means for your milk check that's a clear, measurable

00:34:33.050 --> 00:34:36.190
ROI on treating your labor as a valuable long

00:34:36.190 --> 00:34:38.269
-term asset to be invested in. Absolutely. Okay,

00:34:38.369 --> 00:34:41.469
what's strategy two? Strategy number two is meticulous

00:34:41.469 --> 00:34:45.150
I -9 compliance and audit preparation. This might

00:34:45.150 --> 00:34:48.070
sound like just paperwork, but the article highlights

00:34:48.070 --> 00:34:51.289
it as a critical defense against immediate operational

00:34:51.289 --> 00:34:53.929
disruption. Right, because those audits can come

00:34:53.929 --> 00:34:56.340
any time. Penn State's Brooke Dewar is cited,

00:34:56.519 --> 00:34:59.420
strongly emphasizing the absolute necessity of

00:34:59.420 --> 00:35:02.760
having systematic, ongoing I -9 audit preparation

00:35:02.760 --> 00:35:05.659
in place now. Not when you get the notice. Exactly.

00:35:05.920 --> 00:35:09.019
The critical rule from Immigration and Customs

00:35:09.019 --> 00:35:12.019
Enforcement, ICE, is non -negotiable. If they

00:35:12.019 --> 00:35:14.719
arrive on your farm and request your I -9 forms...

00:35:15.150 --> 00:35:17.889
you have precisely three business days to produce

00:35:17.889 --> 00:35:20.349
any documents they request. Three days. That's

00:35:20.349 --> 00:35:22.269
not much time if things aren't organized. Not

00:35:22.269 --> 00:35:24.170
at all. And the challenging reality is that,

00:35:24.230 --> 00:35:27.150
as the article notes, ICE officers may show up

00:35:27.150 --> 00:35:29.619
unannounced. or with very little prior warning,

00:35:29.800 --> 00:35:32.219
presenting a notice of inspection for your I

00:35:32.219 --> 00:35:33.920
-9 forms. So you have to be ready constantly.

00:35:34.219 --> 00:35:36.619
Smart operations, the article stresses, don't

00:35:36.619 --> 00:35:38.840
scramble when the notice arrives. They maintain

00:35:38.840 --> 00:35:41.159
meticulous, organized, and up -to -date employment

00:35:41.159 --> 00:35:43.619
records at all times and have already developed

00:35:43.619 --> 00:35:46.500
clear response protocols before enforcement arrives.

00:35:46.940 --> 00:35:49.320
This preparedness protects you from potentially

00:35:49.320 --> 00:35:52.039
crippling fines, which the article summary implies

00:35:52.039 --> 00:35:54.679
can run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

00:35:54.920 --> 00:35:58.179
Serious money. Okay, strategy three. Strategy

00:35:58.179 --> 00:36:00.500
number three is strategic technology integration.

00:36:01.579 --> 00:36:04.380
Revisiting technology, but with a different,

00:36:04.480 --> 00:36:07.519
more nuanced focus than the simple idea of replacement.

00:36:07.880 --> 00:36:10.260
Right, not just tech for tech's sake. The goal

00:36:10.260 --> 00:36:12.800
here... as defined by the article and seen on

00:36:12.800 --> 00:36:16.000
successful farms is to strategically adopt technology

00:36:16.000 --> 00:36:18.719
in ways that enhance worker productivity and

00:36:18.719 --> 00:36:21.480
efficiency rather than solely attempting to replace

00:36:21.480 --> 00:36:24.719
workers makes sense examples examples cited include

00:36:24.719 --> 00:36:27.139
integrating precision feeding systems that reduce

00:36:27.139 --> 00:36:30.280
manual mixing errors and labor automated health

00:36:30.280 --> 00:36:32.559
monitoring systems that free up skilled labor

00:36:32.559 --> 00:36:35.139
time from observation rounds to focus on intervention

00:36:35.139 --> 00:36:37.260
letting people focus on the high value tasks

00:36:37.260 --> 00:36:40.139
and data analytics platforms that empower managers

00:36:40.400 --> 00:36:42.219
and skilled workers to make better decisions

00:36:42.219 --> 00:36:45.619
faster. These tools, the article argues, don't

00:36:45.619 --> 00:36:47.699
eliminate the need for people, but they allow

00:36:47.699 --> 00:36:50.440
existing skilled workers to manage larger herds

00:36:50.440 --> 00:36:53.760
more effectively, improve accuracy, and reduce

00:36:53.760 --> 00:36:56.039
some of the more physically demanding or repetitive

00:36:56.039 --> 00:36:58.739
labor. So this type of technology investment

00:36:58.739 --> 00:37:02.219
complements rather than attempts to replace the

00:37:02.219 --> 00:37:04.820
essential skilled human labor on the farm. Okay,

00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:08.530
and the last one, strategy four. Finally, strategy

00:37:08.530 --> 00:37:11.969
four is supply chain diversification. This involves

00:37:11.969 --> 00:37:14.250
actively reducing your operations dependence

00:37:14.250 --> 00:37:17.869
on single suppliers who might themselves be vulnerable

00:37:17.869 --> 00:37:20.329
to labor disruptions like those described earlier.

00:37:20.510 --> 00:37:23.210
Ah, looking beyond your own farm gate. Exactly.

00:37:23.269 --> 00:37:25.590
This is about building resilience upstream and

00:37:25.590 --> 00:37:28.059
downstream. It involves diversifying your vendor

00:37:28.059 --> 00:37:30.579
networks, maybe having multiple sources for feed

00:37:30.579 --> 00:37:32.579
ingredients, working with several transportation

00:37:32.579 --> 00:37:35.239
companies, or building relationships with multiple

00:37:35.239 --> 00:37:37.619
processing facilities if possible. Spreading

00:37:37.619 --> 00:37:40.219
the risk. And a key factor mentioned is actively

00:37:40.219 --> 00:37:42.579
working with vendors and partners in your supply

00:37:42.579 --> 00:37:45.159
chain who themselves have demonstrated stable

00:37:45.159 --> 00:37:48.360
labor practices. Why is that important? By collaborating

00:37:48.360 --> 00:37:51.360
with businesses that value and retain their workforce,

00:37:51.739 --> 00:37:54.840
you are indirectly protecting your own operation

00:37:54.840 --> 00:37:58.199
from potential supply chain disruptions caused

00:37:58.199 --> 00:38:00.539
by labor issues further up or down the chain.

00:38:00.699 --> 00:38:03.760
Like your feed mill suddenly closing or transport

00:38:03.760 --> 00:38:06.699
becoming unavailable? Exactly. Building a resilient

00:38:06.699 --> 00:38:09.480
network. The article then takes a step back to

00:38:09.480 --> 00:38:12.780
look at the broader global competition angle.

00:38:13.059 --> 00:38:15.300
Right. How does the U .S. situation stack up

00:38:15.300 --> 00:38:17.530
internationally? it points out that while the

00:38:17.530 --> 00:38:20.230
u .s dairy industry is grappling with this fundamental

00:38:20.230 --> 00:38:23.469
labor crisis and the uncertainty it creates global

00:38:23.469 --> 00:38:26.110
competitors are not standing still they're moving

00:38:26.110 --> 00:38:28.730
ahead they're actively building structural advantages

00:38:28.730 --> 00:38:31.130
related to labor that position them better in

00:38:31.130 --> 00:38:33.329
the international market so stable predictable

00:38:33.329 --> 00:38:35.889
labor policies in other dairy producing countries

00:38:35.889 --> 00:38:38.530
the article argues are directly helping those

00:38:38.530 --> 00:38:41.130
competitors capture expanding global market share

00:38:41.840 --> 00:38:43.840
while the U .S. struggles with inconsistency

00:38:43.840 --> 00:38:46.059
and potential production losses. And it provides

00:38:46.059 --> 00:38:49.440
specific examples. New Zealand, a major dairy

00:38:49.440 --> 00:38:52.119
exporter. Huge player. Has well -established

00:38:52.119 --> 00:38:54.480
seasonal worker programs, like their recognized

00:38:54.480 --> 00:38:58.380
seasonal employer RSE scheme, that provide dairy

00:38:58.380 --> 00:39:00.780
farmers with predictable, legally authorized

00:39:00.780 --> 00:39:04.599
labor pools. So they have reliability. This predictability,

00:39:04.739 --> 00:39:07.460
the article suggests, enables consistent 2 -3

00:39:07.460 --> 00:39:10.099
% annual production growth and supports ongoing

00:39:10.099 --> 00:39:13.099
farm modernization and investment, because farmers

00:39:13.099 --> 00:39:15.239
know they'll have the workforce to utilize those

00:39:15.239 --> 00:39:17.889
investments. Makes sense. Who else? Canada, our

00:39:17.889 --> 00:39:19.789
neighbor to the north and another significant

00:39:19.789 --> 00:39:22.610
dairy producer, is highlighted for its even longer

00:39:22.610 --> 00:39:25.590
track record over 50 years of managed agricultural

00:39:25.590 --> 00:39:28.750
immigration through programs like their Seasonal

00:39:28.750 --> 00:39:32.010
Agricultural Worker Program, SAWP. 50 years,

00:39:32.190 --> 00:39:34.829
that's established. This half century of planned,

00:39:35.010 --> 00:39:37.610
consistent labor supply supports long -term investment

00:39:37.610 --> 00:39:40.349
planning on Canadian farms and helps them avoid

00:39:40.349 --> 00:39:42.750
the volatile, unpredictable boom -bust cycles

00:39:42.750 --> 00:39:45.880
seen in the U .S. labor market. And Europe. Within

00:39:45.880 --> 00:39:48.179
the European Union, regional worker mobility

00:39:48.179 --> 00:39:51.179
policies effectively eliminate the kind of national

00:39:51.179 --> 00:39:53.659
level immigration uncertainties that plague U

00:39:53.659 --> 00:39:56.530
.S. operations. workers can move more freely

00:39:56.530 --> 00:39:59.670
within the EU to meet agricultural needs, supporting

00:39:59.670 --> 00:40:02.449
stable planning horizons for European dairy producers

00:40:02.449 --> 00:40:05.050
who are also competitors in the global market.

00:40:05.190 --> 00:40:07.289
So the implication for U .S. market share, as

00:40:07.289 --> 00:40:09.309
the article points out, is clear. Yeah. When

00:40:09.309 --> 00:40:12.010
U .S. dairies face production volatility or inability

00:40:12.010 --> 00:40:14.590
to expand due to labor shortages and uncertainty,

00:40:15.090 --> 00:40:18.170
international suppliers who do have stable labor

00:40:18.170 --> 00:40:20.489
frameworks are well positioned to fill the gap

00:40:20.489 --> 00:40:23.420
in global demand, often at freemium prices. This

00:40:23.420 --> 00:40:25.679
directly impacts the competitiveness and global

00:40:25.679 --> 00:40:28.039
standing of the U .S. dairy industry. We lose

00:40:28.039 --> 00:40:30.599
out. Potentially, yes. The article then transitions

00:40:30.599 --> 00:40:33.400
to discussing potential policy solutions, suggesting

00:40:33.400 --> 00:40:35.659
that meaningful long -term solutions require

00:40:35.659 --> 00:40:38.219
a fundamental shift in approach. Moving beyond

00:40:38.219 --> 00:40:40.800
just enforcement. Moving beyond enforcement -only

00:40:40.800 --> 00:40:43.199
strategies that primarily disrupt the workforce

00:40:43.199 --> 00:40:45.699
and towards policies that address the reality

00:40:45.699 --> 00:40:48.980
of dairy's year -round labor needs. And as we

00:40:48.980 --> 00:40:50.960
noted earlier, we'll present these impartially

00:40:50.960 --> 00:40:54.199
as the solutions specifically discussed and advocated

00:40:54.199 --> 00:40:56.179
for within the article. Right, so what's solution

00:40:56.179 --> 00:40:58.980
one? Solution number one discussed is modernized

00:40:58.980 --> 00:41:01.679
guest worker programs. This involves reforming

00:41:01.679 --> 00:41:04.619
existing programs, like H -2A, and developing

00:41:04.619 --> 00:41:07.059
new ones specifically tailored to meet the unique

00:41:07.059 --> 00:41:10.380
needs of year - around agricultural sectors like

00:41:10.380 --> 00:41:13.099
dairy. So fixing H -2A or creating something

00:41:13.099 --> 00:41:15.420
new for dairy is reality. Yeah. The goals would

00:41:15.420 --> 00:41:17.880
be to accommodate continuous labor requirements,

00:41:18.159 --> 00:41:20.579
strengthen worker protections, remove those restrictive

00:41:20.579 --> 00:41:23.300
seasonal limitations that make H -2A incompatible

00:41:23.300 --> 00:41:25.960
with dairy, and streamline the application process

00:41:25.960 --> 00:41:28.139
for legitimate employers to reduce administrative

00:41:28.139 --> 00:41:30.869
burden. Okay, solution two. Solution number two

00:41:30.869 --> 00:41:33.610
is advocating for earned legalization for current

00:41:33.610 --> 00:41:36.530
workers. This involves providing pathways to

00:41:36.530 --> 00:41:38.530
legal status, potentially permanent residency,

00:41:38.789 --> 00:41:41.429
for the significant population of long -term

00:41:41.429 --> 00:41:43.849
undocumented workers who are already integrated

00:41:43.849 --> 00:41:46.769
into the U .S. dairy workforce. The people already

00:41:46.769 --> 00:41:49.809
here doing the work. The article highlights the

00:41:49.809 --> 00:41:52.389
point that these workers are integral to dairy

00:41:52.389 --> 00:41:54.949
operations, possessing years of experience and

00:41:54.949 --> 00:41:57.170
training that is not easily replaced. And it

00:41:57.170 --> 00:42:00.469
mentions NMPF supports this. It explicitly mentions

00:42:00.469 --> 00:42:02.849
the National Milk Producers Federation's call

00:42:02.849 --> 00:42:04.869
for permanent legal status for these workers,

00:42:05.090 --> 00:42:07.809
tying it directly back to avoiding the economic

00:42:07.809 --> 00:42:10.789
catastrophe scenario outlined by the data. Makes

00:42:10.789 --> 00:42:13.550
sense. Solution three. Solution number three

00:42:13.550 --> 00:42:16.070
is advocating for balanced enforcement priorities.

00:42:16.829 --> 00:42:18.949
The article notes the striking current disparity

00:42:18.949 --> 00:42:22.949
in federal spending, citing a rough 14 .1 ratio

00:42:22.949 --> 00:42:25.730
favoring immigration enforcement budgets over

00:42:25.730 --> 00:42:28.349
budgets for enforcing labor standards. 14 to

00:42:28.349 --> 00:42:30.269
1. That's a big difference. The argument presented

00:42:30.269 --> 00:42:33.110
is that the severe imbalance not only leads to

00:42:33.110 --> 00:42:36.630
disruptive immigration raids. but also by failing

00:42:36.630 --> 00:42:39.110
to adequately enforce labor standards, can enable

00:42:39.110 --> 00:42:41.630
worker exploitation, and ultimately undermine

00:42:41.630 --> 00:42:44.829
fair wages and working conditions for all agricultural

00:42:44.829 --> 00:42:47.530
workers. Including native -born workers. Exactly.

00:42:47.769 --> 00:42:49.949
Rebalancing priorities could lead to more stable

00:42:49.949 --> 00:42:52.329
employment practices across the board. And the

00:42:52.329 --> 00:42:54.420
last one, solution four. Solution number four

00:42:54.420 --> 00:42:56.639
is exploring the potential for regional labor

00:42:56.639 --> 00:42:59.679
compacts. This suggests developing agreements

00:42:59.679 --> 00:43:02.579
potentially between states or regions that could

00:43:02.579 --> 00:43:05.760
facilitate managed seasonal or year -round worker

00:43:05.760 --> 00:43:08.460
mobility across different agricultural sectors

00:43:08.460 --> 00:43:11.929
and geographic areas based on need. So more flexibility

00:43:11.929 --> 00:43:14.789
across state lines, maybe. Yeah. The goal would

00:43:14.789 --> 00:43:17.050
be to reduce some of the administrative complexities

00:43:17.050 --> 00:43:19.590
of national programs while maintaining necessary

00:43:19.590 --> 00:43:22.309
oversight and ensuring robust worker protections

00:43:22.309 --> 00:43:25.110
are in place. Okay. So those are the policy ideas

00:43:25.110 --> 00:43:27.460
discussed. The article's core message really

00:43:27.460 --> 00:43:30.340
culminates in a section titled Adapt or Perish,

00:43:30.519 --> 00:43:33.639
revisiting the stark choice facing dairy producers

00:43:33.639 --> 00:43:35.840
in light of the data and the policy challenges.

00:43:36.139 --> 00:43:38.219
Bringing it all together. It brings the conversation

00:43:38.219 --> 00:43:41.260
full circle back to that seemingly unbelievable

00:43:41.260 --> 00:43:46.079
90 .4 % milk price increase projection. Yeah,

00:43:46.119 --> 00:43:48.139
that number again. Hammering home the point that

00:43:48.139 --> 00:43:50.980
it's not a theoretical fantasy or political hyperbole.

00:43:51.059 --> 00:43:53.920
It's presented as the direct mathematical result

00:43:53.920 --> 00:43:59.139
of removing the immigrant work. The economics

00:43:59.139 --> 00:44:01.679
presented earlier, the loss of production in

00:44:01.679 --> 00:44:04.900
farms, mathematically leads to extreme scarcity

00:44:04.900 --> 00:44:07.579
scenarios in the market, driving prices up drastically.

00:44:07.840 --> 00:44:10.239
In connecting it back to your operation, the

00:44:10.239 --> 00:44:13.579
article reinforces that all that genetic progress

00:44:13.579 --> 00:44:16.579
you've painstakingly built, all the component

00:44:16.579 --> 00:44:19.320
optimization you've achieved, pushing butterfat

00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:23.949
to 4 .40%. All the tech investment. The rotary

00:44:23.949 --> 00:44:27.469
parlors, the AMS units, the activity monitors.

00:44:27.829 --> 00:44:30.170
All of it becomes vulnerable, potentially worthless,

00:44:30.429 --> 00:44:33.269
without the skilled workers needed to execute

00:44:33.269 --> 00:44:35.730
the daily protocols, to milk the cows correctly,

00:44:35.989 --> 00:44:38.909
to feed them precisely, to manage the machines,

00:44:39.090 --> 00:44:41.309
and to care for the animals. Labor underpins

00:44:41.309 --> 00:44:43.250
everything else. The article then poses four

00:44:43.250 --> 00:44:45.449
critical questions directly to you, the listener,

00:44:45.610 --> 00:44:47.750
suggesting that your answers determine your readiness

00:44:47.750 --> 00:44:49.610
for the unfolding crisis. Okay, what are they?

00:44:49.690 --> 00:44:52.400
The first is sharp and immediate. Can your operation

00:44:52.400 --> 00:44:55.840
realistically survive a 50 % labor loss occurring

00:44:55.840 --> 00:44:59.300
within just 30 days? Wow. And the article doesn't

00:44:59.300 --> 00:45:01.559
leave that question hanging, does it? It immediately

00:45:01.559 --> 00:45:03.900
provides the answer based on the Texas A &M research.

00:45:04.119 --> 00:45:06.960
Which says... The data suggests most dairy operations,

00:45:07.179 --> 00:45:09.760
in their current structure, cannot survive that

00:45:09.760 --> 00:45:11.860
kind of sudden, drastic workforce reduction.

00:45:12.179 --> 00:45:14.960
It highlights the immediate existential vulnerability.

00:45:15.460 --> 00:45:17.650
Okay, tough first question. Question two. Are

00:45:17.650 --> 00:45:20.269
your technology investments truly labor -dependent

00:45:20.269 --> 00:45:23.670
or labor -independent? Ah, digging into that

00:45:23.670 --> 00:45:25.929
tech piece again. The article states that an

00:45:25.929 --> 00:45:28.710
honest assessment here is crucial for determining

00:45:28.710 --> 00:45:31.269
your vulnerability level, tying back to that

00:45:31.269 --> 00:45:33.369
point that much of today's sophisticated dairy

00:45:33.369 --> 00:45:36.429
tech still requires skilled human oversight and

00:45:36.429 --> 00:45:39.670
maintenance rather than operating truly autonomously.

00:45:39.789 --> 00:45:42.250
Got it. Question three. Question three cuts directly

00:45:42.250 --> 00:45:45.159
to financial risk. What's your contingency plan

00:45:45.159 --> 00:45:47.619
if, for some reason, H -2A costs were to double

00:45:47.619 --> 00:45:49.880
overnight? Referencing Zach Rutledge's analysis

00:45:49.880 --> 00:45:52.539
that current H -2A costs are already potentially

00:45:52.539 --> 00:45:55.639
double domestic wages when all expenses are included.

00:45:55.900 --> 00:45:58.219
Right. The question forces you to consider the

00:45:58.219 --> 00:46:01.440
economic viability of relying on or being forced

00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:04.300
into such a costly program. Do you have a plan

00:46:04.300 --> 00:46:07.139
B for that? And question four broadens the scope

00:46:07.139 --> 00:46:10.320
beyond the farm gate. How are you actively building

00:46:10.320 --> 00:46:12.260
political capital for fundamental immigration

00:46:12.260 --> 00:46:15.860
reform? getting involved. Emphasizing the article's

00:46:15.860 --> 00:46:18.619
point that while farm level strategies are essential,

00:46:18.960 --> 00:46:21.659
individual operators cannot solve this systemic

00:46:21.659 --> 00:46:24.940
national policy issue alone. It requires collective

00:46:24.940 --> 00:46:27.280
action and political engagement through industry

00:46:27.280 --> 00:46:30.300
organizations. Based on these challenges, the

00:46:30.300 --> 00:46:32.659
article provides an implementation timeline for

00:46:32.659 --> 00:46:35.780
immediate action. Concrete steps. Outlining concrete

00:46:35.780 --> 00:46:38.599
steps. A producer can, according to the article,

00:46:38.800 --> 00:46:41.579
should take now, starting this week, to position

00:46:41.579 --> 00:46:44.000
their operation for resilience. Okay. What's

00:46:44.000 --> 00:46:46.340
the first step? Week one. The very first step

00:46:46.340 --> 00:46:49.800
recommended within week one to two. Immediately

00:46:49.800 --> 00:46:52.619
contact your state dairy association to get involved

00:46:52.619 --> 00:46:56.389
and join advocacy efforts. Don't wait. No. The

00:46:56.389 --> 00:46:58.530
article specifically mentions the National Milk

00:46:58.530 --> 00:47:00.710
Producers Federation and the American Farm Bureau

00:47:00.710 --> 00:47:03.869
Federation as leading national initiatives, but

00:47:03.869 --> 00:47:06.929
stresses that they need unified vocal producer

00:47:06.929 --> 00:47:09.469
support on the ground to effectively influence

00:47:09.469 --> 00:47:12.050
policy outcomes in Washington. Makes sense. Month

00:47:12.050 --> 00:47:15.090
one. Month one. Conduct a comprehensive I -9

00:47:15.090 --> 00:47:17.170
audit of your current employment documentation.

00:47:17.670 --> 00:47:20.590
Get those papers in order. Reiterate Brooke Dewar's

00:47:20.590 --> 00:47:23.869
urgent guidance. You only have three business

00:47:23.869 --> 00:47:27.250
days to produce documents when ICE arrives for

00:47:27.250 --> 00:47:30.010
an inspection. Highlights the absolute necessity

00:47:30.010 --> 00:47:33.849
of proactive, meticulous preparation before you

00:47:33.849 --> 00:47:35.869
receive a notice. Maybe hire someone to help?

00:47:36.190 --> 00:47:38.849
Yeah. Might involve hiring an external consultant

00:47:38.849 --> 00:47:41.469
or using resources from your industry association

00:47:41.469 --> 00:47:44.690
to ensure everything is absolutely in order.

00:47:44.829 --> 00:47:47.289
Okay. Months two to three. Months two to three.

00:47:47.389 --> 00:47:49.730
Actively develop and implement worker retention

00:47:49.730 --> 00:47:52.699
programs on your farm. Refer back to the research

00:47:52.699 --> 00:47:55.440
showing the benefits of stable workforces. Investing

00:47:55.440 --> 00:47:57.619
in your people. This involves dedicating resources

00:47:57.619 --> 00:48:00.219
to things like assessing housing needs, exploring

00:48:00.219 --> 00:48:02.619
healthcare access options, offering English language

00:48:02.619 --> 00:48:05.280
training, and creating pathways for skills development

00:48:05.280 --> 00:48:07.739
and advancement for your existing team. And months

00:48:07.739 --> 00:48:10.280
four to six? Months four to six. Make strategic

00:48:10.280 --> 00:48:12.760
investments in technology, focusing specifically

00:48:12.760 --> 00:48:15.539
on systems that enhance, support, and improve

00:48:15.539 --> 00:48:17.739
the productivity of your skilled workers. Not

00:48:17.739 --> 00:48:20.260
just replace them. Rather than technology purchased.

00:48:20.599 --> 00:48:22.579
with the flawed assumption that it will simply

00:48:22.579 --> 00:48:25.360
reduce the total number of people you need. Follow

00:48:25.360 --> 00:48:27.739
the models of successful AMS integration that

00:48:27.739 --> 00:48:30.800
maintain employment levels, but shift job roles

00:48:30.800 --> 00:48:33.579
towards higher skill sets. The article concludes

00:48:33.579 --> 00:48:35.880
this section with a powerful assertion that serves

00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:38.500
as a summary of its recommended approach. The

00:48:38.500 --> 00:48:41.239
smart money in dairy is now fundamentally in

00:48:41.239 --> 00:48:44.139
operations preparation. Operations prep, that

00:48:44.139 --> 00:48:46.539
covers a lot. This preparation, as outlined,

00:48:46.780 --> 00:48:48.900
covers comprehensive worker retention programs,

00:48:49.219 --> 00:48:51.480
strategic and thoughtful technology investment,

00:48:51.820 --> 00:48:55.000
robust risk management, including I -9 compliance,

00:48:55.420 --> 00:48:58.019
and dedicated political engagement through established

00:48:58.019 --> 00:49:00.920
farm organizations. It's not about passively

00:49:00.920 --> 00:49:04.000
waiting for a hypothetical policy fix. It's about

00:49:04.000 --> 00:49:06.599
actively building operational resilience on your

00:49:06.599 --> 00:49:10.019
farm today, while simultaneously advocating for

00:49:10.019 --> 00:49:12.019
the systemic change that the industry desperately

00:49:12.019 --> 00:49:15.940
needs. So what's your concrete, actionable next

00:49:15.940 --> 00:49:17.840
step, according to the clear direction provided

00:49:17.840 --> 00:49:20.340
in this Bullvine article? It's presented as immediate

00:49:20.340 --> 00:49:23.519
and essential. Contact your state dairy association

00:49:23.519 --> 00:49:26.659
this week to get connected and join the ongoing

00:49:26.659 --> 00:49:29.320
advocacy efforts for agricultural labor reform.

00:49:29.690 --> 00:49:32.250
Reaffirming why this is the crucial first step,

00:49:32.489 --> 00:49:35.530
unified collective producer support is absolutely

00:49:35.530 --> 00:49:38.590
necessary to influence policy outcomes in Washington.

00:49:38.909 --> 00:49:41.610
Your individual voice is important, but it is

00:49:41.610 --> 00:49:44.309
amplified exponentially when combined with the

00:49:44.309 --> 00:49:47.110
voices of thousands of other dairy farmers facing

00:49:47.110 --> 00:49:49.170
the exact same challenges. And to leave you with

00:49:49.170 --> 00:49:51.210
a final thought, building on the article's closing

00:49:51.210 --> 00:49:53.969
lines and the stark reality it presents. Yeah.

00:49:54.320 --> 00:49:56.980
This isn't just about abstract politics or policy

00:49:56.980 --> 00:49:59.019
debates happening far away. It's fundamentally

00:49:59.019 --> 00:50:01.980
about protecting the future viability of your

00:50:01.980 --> 00:50:04.760
specific operation, your livelihood, your way

00:50:04.760 --> 00:50:07.119
of life. Especially in a market where optimizing

00:50:07.119 --> 00:50:10.719
components like butterfat and protein and maximizing

00:50:10.719 --> 00:50:13.440
operational efficiency are absolutely key to

00:50:13.440 --> 00:50:15.840
survival. The crisis the article describes isn't

00:50:15.840 --> 00:50:18.159
some distant possibility looming on the horizon.

00:50:18.320 --> 00:50:20.900
It's coming, or perhaps, as the article strongly

00:50:20.900 --> 00:50:23.260
suggests and recent events indicate, it's already

00:50:23.260 --> 00:50:26.309
here. manifesting in the daily grinding challenges

00:50:26.309 --> 00:50:28.889
of finding, training, and keeping the skilled

00:50:28.889 --> 00:50:32.650
labor you need to milk cows 365 days a year.

00:50:32.809 --> 00:50:35.050
Frame the choice the article presents. Will you

00:50:35.050 --> 00:50:38.170
be ready, prepared, and proactive when that political

00:50:38.170 --> 00:50:40.369
theater the article talks about translates into

00:50:40.369 --> 00:50:42.829
enforcement action that hits your milking parlor?

00:50:43.090 --> 00:50:45.809
Potentially at 4 a .m. tomorrow morning. Leaving

00:50:45.809 --> 00:50:48.289
you shorthanded. The stark reality the article

00:50:48.289 --> 00:50:52.119
leaves you with is this. Washington may be engaged

00:50:52.119 --> 00:50:54.980
in complex, often unpredictable political theater,

00:50:55.139 --> 00:50:58.179
but your cows still need milking twice daily.

00:50:58.340 --> 00:51:00.920
Every day. Your components still need optimizing

00:51:00.920 --> 00:51:03.880
to capture market value. Your TMR needs mixing

00:51:03.880 --> 00:51:06.699
and delivering, and your entire operation needs

00:51:06.699 --> 00:51:09.389
proactive protection. The producers who recognize

00:51:09.389 --> 00:51:11.489
this fundamental truth about their labor dependency

00:51:11.489 --> 00:51:13.849
and act accordingly, focusing on their people,

00:51:13.969 --> 00:51:15.710
their preparedness, and their collective voice

00:51:15.710 --> 00:51:17.690
through industry action are the ones who the

00:51:17.690 --> 00:51:19.809
article suggests are most likely to still be

00:51:19.809 --> 00:51:22.670
standing when the dust settles on this undeniable

00:51:22.670 --> 00:51:24.809
labor crisis. Something definitely worth thinking

00:51:24.809 --> 00:51:28.230
about and acting upon this week. Here's the bottom

00:51:28.230 --> 00:51:31.130
line, folks. While Washington plays political

00:51:31.130 --> 00:51:34.110
games with immigration policy, your cows still

00:51:34.110 --> 00:51:37.059
need milking twice daily. your components still

00:51:37.059 --> 00:51:39.800
need optimizing, and your operation still needs

00:51:39.800 --> 00:51:43.579
protecting. The 90 .4 % milk price increase we

00:51:43.579 --> 00:51:46.260
discussed isn't some distant theoretical possibility.

00:51:46.780 --> 00:51:49.559
It's the mathematical result of eliminating the

00:51:49.559 --> 00:51:52.739
workforce that produces 79 % of America's milk

00:51:52.739 --> 00:51:55.719
supply. Every day that passes without policy

00:51:55.719 --> 00:51:58.599
solutions moves our industry closer to that economic

00:51:58.599 --> 00:52:02.039
cliff. The producers who recognize this fundamental

00:52:02.039 --> 00:52:05.440
truth and take action now will be the ones still

00:52:05.440 --> 00:52:09.000
standing when the dust settles. The question

00:52:09.000 --> 00:52:11.539
isn't whether this crisis will affect you, it's

00:52:11.539 --> 00:52:13.280
whether you'll be ready when it hits your milking

00:52:13.280 --> 00:52:16.960
parlor at 4am tomorrow morning. Your next step?

00:52:17.300 --> 00:52:19.920
Contact your state dairy association this week.

00:52:20.460 --> 00:52:23.400
Join the advocacy efforts for agricultural labor

00:52:23.400 --> 00:52:26.860
reform. The National Milk Producers Federation

00:52:26.860 --> 00:52:29.800
and American Farm Bureau Federation are leading

00:52:29.800 --> 00:52:32.889
these initiatives. but they need unified producer

00:52:32.889 --> 00:52:36.489
support to make real change happen. This has

00:52:36.489 --> 00:52:39.670
been the Bullvine Podcast. Remember, we don't

00:52:39.670 --> 00:52:41.670
just report the news, we give you the insights

00:52:41.670 --> 00:52:45.409
to profit from it. Until next time, keep challenging

00:52:45.409 --> 00:52:47.809
conventional wisdom and stay ahead of the curve.

00:52:48.030 --> 00:52:51.710
Visit us at www .thebullvine .com for more industry

00:52:51.710 --> 00:52:54.269
-disrupting content that separates leaders from

00:52:54.269 --> 00:52:56.090
followers. Thanks for listening.