WEBVTT 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:15.060 Breaking free from the chains of the past Where 00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.820 truth moves faster than a Holstein calf No law 00:00:18.820 --> 00:00:21.660 waiting on some printed page We're charting new 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:25.300 ground in the digital age From genomic codes 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:29.120 to robot facts We cut through the noise, no hold 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.460 them back not your daddy's dairy news tonight 00:00:32.460 --> 00:01:03.759 we're sparking Welcome to the Bullveen Podcast, 00:01:04.200 --> 00:01:06.500 where we deliver the dairy industry's most progressive 00:01:06.500 --> 00:01:09.040 insights and challenge conventional thinking 00:01:09.040 --> 00:01:11.900 that's holding your operation back. I'm your 00:01:11.900 --> 00:01:14.319 host, and this is the podcast for dairy farmers, 00:01:14.579 --> 00:01:17.260 industry professionals, and anyone who refuses 00:01:17.260 --> 00:01:20.099 to accept, that's how we've always done it, as 00:01:20.099 --> 00:01:23.280 an answer. Today's episode is going to ruin your 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:25.780 Memorial Day weekend, but it might just save 00:01:25.780 --> 00:01:28.640 your farm. We're diving deep into one of agriculture's 00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:31.540 most predictable disasters, the annual Memorial 00:01:31.540 --> 00:01:34.159 Day milk dumping crisis that's costing dairy 00:01:34.159 --> 00:01:36.700 farmers millions while processors shrug their 00:01:36.700 --> 00:01:39.719 shoulders and blame market volatility. Here's 00:01:39.719 --> 00:01:42.140 what most people don't understand. Every single 00:01:42.140 --> 00:01:44.599 Memorial Day weekend, while Americans fire up 00:01:44.599 --> 00:01:46.640 their grills expecting abundant dairy products, 00:01:46.859 --> 00:01:49.659 dairy farmers across the nation watch their life's 00:01:49.659 --> 00:01:52.180 work. literally flow down the drain we're talking 00:01:52.180 --> 00:01:54.780 about millions of gallons of perfectly good milk 00:01:54.780 --> 00:01:57.819 being dumped because processors apparently can't 00:01:57.819 --> 00:02:00.439 master the basic art of predicting what people 00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:03.140 want to eat during a three -day weekend sound 00:02:03.140 --> 00:02:05.739 ridiculous it is and it's been happening for 00:02:05.739 --> 00:02:08.199 decades but here's the question nobody in the 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:11.180 industry wants to ask why are we still accepting 00:02:11.180 --> 00:02:14.360 this annual disaster as inevitable when the technology 00:02:14.360 --> 00:02:17.879 exists to fix it right now In today's episode, 00:02:18.020 --> 00:02:20.580 we're exposing the systemic failures behind Memorial 00:02:20.580 --> 00:02:23.039 Day milk dumping, from antiquated forecasting 00:02:23.039 --> 00:02:26.319 methods that belong in the 1950s to processing 00:02:26.319 --> 00:02:28.620 bottlenecks that turn predictable biological 00:02:28.620 --> 00:02:32.479 peaks into financial bloodbaths. More importantly, 00:02:32.680 --> 00:02:34.719 we're going to give you the tools to fight back 00:02:34.719 --> 00:02:37.659 and demand better from your cooperative. If you're 00:02:37.659 --> 00:02:40.500 tired of subsidizing processor incompetence through 00:02:40.500 --> 00:02:43.699 your milk check, this episode is for you. Let's 00:02:43.699 --> 00:02:46.250 get started. Okay, let's unpack this. We're diving 00:02:46.250 --> 00:02:49.069 into a topic that, well, unfortunately hits close 00:02:49.069 --> 00:02:51.810 to home for far too many in the dairy world, 00:02:51.969 --> 00:02:54.509 especially this time of year. Yeah, that annual 00:02:54.509 --> 00:02:57.870 frustrating thing with milk dumping around Memorial 00:02:57.870 --> 00:03:00.590 Day. Exactly. It's a challenge we see reports 00:03:00.590 --> 00:03:03.639 on every spring. And for this deep dive, we've 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:06.340 really dug into material from a source called 00:03:06.340 --> 00:03:10.139 Why Memorial Day Kills Dairy Farms. It lays out 00:03:10.139 --> 00:03:14.039 some pretty stark arguments about why, at least 00:03:14.039 --> 00:03:16.080 from its perspective, this keeps happening. Right. 00:03:16.159 --> 00:03:19.780 Why this predictable event seems to lead to milk 00:03:19.780 --> 00:03:22.080 being discarded, you know, year after year. And 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:24.580 this document, it doesn't just call it an inconvenience. 00:03:24.780 --> 00:03:27.400 No, it really frames it as a systemic failure. 00:03:27.580 --> 00:03:29.599 Uses the term predictable disaster, actually. 00:03:29.620 --> 00:03:32.389 So our mission here. for you listening, is to 00:03:32.389 --> 00:03:34.430 really get into the weeds of this source material. 00:03:34.689 --> 00:03:36.610 Understand the arguments it's making, look at 00:03:36.610 --> 00:03:39.210 the numbers it presents. And see why, according 00:03:39.210 --> 00:03:41.909 to this viewpoint, the dairy industry seems kind 00:03:41.909 --> 00:03:44.069 of stuck in this loop, managing the seasonal 00:03:44.069 --> 00:03:47.009 surplus. Think of this as getting a shortcut 00:03:47.009 --> 00:03:50.189 to understanding the why behind those dump reports 00:03:50.189 --> 00:03:52.569 you might see. Or maybe even experience firsthand, 00:03:52.870 --> 00:03:55.509 unfortunately. We're looking at what this source 00:03:55.509 --> 00:03:58.719 claims are the systemic failures. And the potential 00:03:58.719 --> 00:04:02.199 pabs forward, it suggests. It really tries to 00:04:02.199 --> 00:04:04.219 pull back the curtain on some operational and 00:04:04.219 --> 00:04:07.159 structural issues it believes are, well, being 00:04:07.159 --> 00:04:09.900 ignored. OK, so where does the source start its 00:04:09.900 --> 00:04:12.080 argument? It kicks off with what it calls the 00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:14.560 spring flush reality check. Right. And the core 00:04:14.560 --> 00:04:16.680 idea there is pretty fundamental dairy science. 00:04:17.199 --> 00:04:19.639 Stuff every farmer listening knows. Yeah. The 00:04:19.639 --> 00:04:22.519 source even suggests it apparently escapes our 00:04:22.519 --> 00:04:26.220 processing giants, which is quite a statement. 00:04:26.600 --> 00:04:29.079 It is. But it's about that predictable surge, 00:04:29.319 --> 00:04:32.220 March to May, when cows hit their peak production. 00:04:32.439 --> 00:04:34.300 The source really emphasizes this isn't some 00:04:34.300 --> 00:04:37.259 mystery. It's basic bovine biology, documented 00:04:37.259 --> 00:04:39.660 way longer than modern herd books. And it uses 00:04:39.660 --> 00:04:42.259 the 2024 numbers to back this up. Notes that 00:04:42.259 --> 00:04:45.399 U .S. milk production, February 24, jumped 2 00:04:45.399 --> 00:04:49.319 .4 % over Feb 23. Reaching 17 .4 billion pounds. 00:04:49.379 --> 00:04:51.639 Even factoring in the leap year, that's significant 00:04:51.639 --> 00:04:54.000 seasonal pressure. But the deeper point this 00:04:54.000 --> 00:04:56.699 source makes is that this biological reality, 00:04:57.060 --> 00:05:00.660 the spring flush, inherently creates these predictable 00:05:00.660 --> 00:05:04.759 like 6 -7 % surges over fall production. Regardless 00:05:04.759 --> 00:05:07.740 of the overall annual numbers. Exactly. Cows 00:05:07.740 --> 00:05:09.980 are just doing what generations of genetics programmed 00:05:09.980 --> 00:05:13.100 them to do, capitalize on spring for max yield. 00:05:13.259 --> 00:05:16.379 And with the U .S. herd around 9 .34 million 00:05:16.379 --> 00:05:20.660 head as of April 24. The sheer volume produced 00:05:20.660 --> 00:05:23.199 during this peak. period, the source argues, 00:05:23.379 --> 00:05:26.500 just overwhelms processing capacity designed 00:05:26.500 --> 00:05:30.300 for average daily volumes. So the source wants 00:05:30.300 --> 00:05:32.699 you to grasp that this concentration of production 00:05:32.699 --> 00:05:35.680 in spring causes the dumping crisis. Even if 00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:37.839 total annual production is flat or maybe even 00:05:37.839 --> 00:05:40.319 down slightly. It paints it as this predictable 00:05:40.319 --> 00:05:42.959 biological peak catching processors off guard 00:05:42.959 --> 00:05:45.199 year after year. Like a first time farmer surprised 00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:47.439 that calves need colostrum. That's a pretty sharp 00:05:47.439 --> 00:05:49.220 analogy they use. It really is. And it quotes 00:05:49.220 --> 00:05:51.300 Professor Jared Hutchins from Illinois capturing 00:05:51.300 --> 00:05:53.399 the farmer's view. Yeah. If your buyer says they 00:05:53.399 --> 00:05:55.459 have enough, you can't go to your cows and say, 00:05:55.540 --> 00:05:58.269 hey, girls, stop producing now. Right. The brutal 00:05:58.269 --> 00:06:01.370 reality, as the document puts it, is dairy farmers 00:06:01.370 --> 00:06:04.250 are locked into a biological cycle. Unlike a 00:06:04.250 --> 00:06:07.029 corn farmer or a feedlot operator who might have 00:06:07.029 --> 00:06:09.129 more flexibility. Your cows definitely don't 00:06:09.129 --> 00:06:11.529 check the CME report before milking time, do 00:06:11.529 --> 00:06:15.310 they? Not likely. So the source then pivots to 00:06:15.310 --> 00:06:18.410 ask why the burden for this predictability falls 00:06:18.410 --> 00:06:20.949 so heavily on the farmer, not the processors. 00:06:21.269 --> 00:06:23.449 Which, alluding to a section it sharply titles 00:06:23.449 --> 00:06:27.810 the $47 million smokescreen. Yeah, it pushes 00:06:27.810 --> 00:06:30.370 back hard against what it calls industry spin, 00:06:30.569 --> 00:06:33.490 around a $47 million Memorial Day loss figure 00:06:33.490 --> 00:06:35.529 that was apparently floating around. And the 00:06:35.529 --> 00:06:37.730 core insight there is that the figure didn't 00:06:37.730 --> 00:06:40.410 actually come from milk dumping at all? No. The 00:06:40.410 --> 00:06:42.350 source points out that number came from the USDA 00:06:42.350 --> 00:06:44.569 suddenly ending local food purchase assistance 00:06:44.569 --> 00:06:47.500 funding in California. Totally unrelated. Ah, 00:06:47.680 --> 00:06:49.899 so the source uses that to suggest the sector 00:06:49.899 --> 00:06:52.480 is so fragile financially that processors might 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:54.759 use unrelated funding cuts as a kind of distraction 00:06:54.759 --> 00:06:56.959 from their own operational issues. That's the 00:06:56.959 --> 00:06:58.740 claim. Follow the money, but double check where 00:06:58.740 --> 00:07:01.339 it actually came from. Exactly. The source says 00:07:01.339 --> 00:07:03.480 the real dumping numbers tell a more disturbing 00:07:03.480 --> 00:07:07.000 story. During peak periods, U .S. farmers are 00:07:07.000 --> 00:07:09.740 reportedly forced to dump up to 3 .7 million 00:07:09.740 --> 00:07:13.180 gallons daily. Daily? Wow! The source calculates 00:07:13.180 --> 00:07:15.420 that's like dumping the entire daily output of 00:07:15.420 --> 00:07:18.300 about 370 average -sized dairies. It's a huge 00:07:18.300 --> 00:07:21.220 number. And it gets specific, citing regional 00:07:21.220 --> 00:07:24.240 examples. Last year, upper Midwest farmers apparently 00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:27.399 dumping up to 350 ,000 gallons a day during the 00:07:27.399 --> 00:07:30.199 flush. And anticipating a repeat this past Memorial 00:07:30.199 --> 00:07:32.699 Day weekend. The math it presents for a typical 00:07:32.699 --> 00:07:36.040 farm. Maybe 8 .1 gallons per cow per day. Means 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:39.560 their whole day's work. Maybe 1 ,120 standard 00:07:39.560 --> 00:07:42.079 milk jugs just poured out because plants were 00:07:42.079 --> 00:07:44.319 full. Plants that, the source argues, were operating 00:07:44.319 --> 00:07:46.199 at capacity but couldn't handle a surge they 00:07:46.199 --> 00:07:48.180 knew was coming. So the source poses that question. 00:07:48.379 --> 00:07:51.579 If we can predict calving dates months out, forecast 00:07:51.579 --> 00:07:54.680 feeds needs. Why can't processors handle a surge 00:07:54.680 --> 00:07:57.040 that happens every single spring? Which transitions 00:07:57.040 --> 00:08:00.620 into what it calls real farmers, real fury. the 00:08:00.620 --> 00:08:02.620 human cost of corporate failure. And here it 00:08:02.620 --> 00:08:04.660 highlights reactions. Mitch Thompson quoted, 00:08:04.839 --> 00:08:07.139 watching his milk dumped. A real kick in the 00:08:07.139 --> 00:08:10.339 shorts. Which the source translates from Minnesota 00:08:10.339 --> 00:08:14.220 nice to absolutely infuriating. And you can understand 00:08:14.220 --> 00:08:17.480 why. He's shipping around 70 ,000 pounds daily 00:08:17.480 --> 00:08:20.779 of quality milk. The result of intense management, 00:08:21.139 --> 00:08:24.759 breeding, nutrition. And haulers pick it up only 00:08:24.759 --> 00:08:27.160 to dump it in a field because regional capacity 00:08:27.160 --> 00:08:29.120 was maxed out. That's the scenario described. 00:08:29.399 --> 00:08:32.080 It also cites Sarah Schmidt from AMPI confirming 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:35.299 that during peak periods, milk from member farms 00:08:35.299 --> 00:08:38.940 regularly exceeds processing and marketing capacity. 00:08:38.940 --> 00:08:41.500 The source uses another dairy analogy here. Yeah. 00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:44.000 Like having a perfect breeding program, heifers 00:08:44.000 --> 00:08:46.419 freshening perfectly. Only to find the maternity 00:08:46.419 --> 00:08:48.629 barns full, nowhere to put them. Yeah. And the 00:08:48.629 --> 00:08:51.029 2024 spring flush, according to this source, 00:08:51.169 --> 00:08:53.990 really highlighted the crisis. Processing bottlenecks, 00:08:54.009 --> 00:08:57.070 forcing dumping, even with billions in new capacity 00:08:57.070 --> 00:08:59.929 supposedly coming online in 2025. Right. The 00:08:59.929 --> 00:09:02.169 source argues that even that $8 billion investment 00:09:02.169 --> 00:09:04.769 still won't address seasonal surge management. 00:09:04.990 --> 00:09:07.230 Which, it claims, makes the structural problems 00:09:07.230 --> 00:09:10.230 even more obvious. The question it raises is 00:09:10.230 --> 00:09:13.940 why this level of... what it calls operational 00:09:13.940 --> 00:09:16.779 incompetence, is tolerated from the companies 00:09:16.779 --> 00:09:19.000 farmers rely on. That leads into the section 00:09:19.000 --> 00:09:21.799 financial bloodbath behind federal Band -Aids. 00:09:22.019 --> 00:09:24.440 Arguing this crisis happens against a backdrop 00:09:24.440 --> 00:09:27.399 of chronically negative dairy economics. The 00:09:27.399 --> 00:09:29.580 source states that over the past decade, average 00:09:29.580 --> 00:09:31.980 dairy farm net income was negative in all but 00:09:31.980 --> 00:09:35.139 one year. Wow. The analogy used is running a 00:09:35.139 --> 00:09:37.559 breeding program where only one bull in 10 actually 00:09:37.559 --> 00:09:40.970 improves the herd. That's... Not good. Not sustainable. 00:09:41.090 --> 00:09:43.110 And it points to the COVID period as a stark 00:09:43.110 --> 00:09:46.590 example. Class I prices collapsing. From $19 00:09:46.590 --> 00:09:51.009 .01 per hundredweight in Jan 2020 down to $11 00:09:51.009 --> 00:09:53.809 .42 by June. This source calculates that's like 00:09:53.809 --> 00:09:57.789 losing $760 in revenue per cow annually. Huge 00:09:57.789 --> 00:09:59.830 hit. In Pennsylvania alone, potential monthly 00:09:59.830 --> 00:10:03.409 losses cited at $25 .2 million, nearly $40 ,000 00:10:03.409 --> 00:10:06.429 per farm. The source then digs into how the FMMO 00:10:06.429 --> 00:10:08.529 system handles dumping. Right, the federal milk 00:10:08.529 --> 00:10:10.590 marketing orders. When milk's dumped, it gets 00:10:10.590 --> 00:10:12.389 pooled at the lowest class price. Effectively 00:10:12.389 --> 00:10:14.610 spreading the financial hit across all producers 00:10:14.610 --> 00:10:16.970 in that order. And it quotes NC State Extension 00:10:16.970 --> 00:10:20.269 saying, this FMMO draw provides only nominal 00:10:20.269 --> 00:10:22.590 financial assistance. Doesn't make anyone whole. 00:10:23.019 --> 00:10:25.379 The analogy is sharp, like a neighbor's mastitis 00:10:25.379 --> 00:10:27.159 outbreak hitting your milk check because you're 00:10:27.159 --> 00:10:30.220 in the same co -op. The sources point. Everyone 00:10:30.220 --> 00:10:32.320 pays for these systemic failures, but the system 00:10:32.320 --> 00:10:34.620 itself isn't fixed. And the math that should 00:10:34.620 --> 00:10:37.200 enrage you, according to this document, is losing 00:10:37.200 --> 00:10:39.100 six to eight eights per hundred weight when your 00:10:39.100 --> 00:10:41.019 milk gets pooled at class four prices, maybe 00:10:41.019 --> 00:10:43.159 11 to 12. Instead of potentially getting class 00:10:43.159 --> 00:10:47.559 I prices, say 18, 20. For a 1 ,000 cow herd, 00:10:47.720 --> 00:10:51.340 70 pounds per cow daily. That's a daily revenue 00:10:51.340 --> 00:10:55.299 loss of $4 ,200 to $5 ,600 during dumping events. 00:10:55.620 --> 00:10:58.039 The question it asks is why farmers are effectively 00:10:58.039 --> 00:11:00.500 subsidizing processor incompetence through our 00:11:00.500 --> 00:11:03.039 own milk checks. Pretty direct. Very direct. 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:05.860 That analysis then leads into what the source 00:11:05.860 --> 00:11:09.000 calls the perfect storm. Four systemic failures 00:11:09.000 --> 00:11:11.659 that guarantee crisis. So beyond just blaming 00:11:11.659 --> 00:11:14.419 forecasting, it identifies four interconnected 00:11:14.419 --> 00:11:17.259 vulnerabilities. That, in its view, turned these 00:11:17.259 --> 00:11:20.519 seasonal surges into annual disasters. Systemic 00:11:20.519 --> 00:11:22.559 design flaws, it argues. Okay, what's the first 00:11:22.559 --> 00:11:27.080 one? Failure one. The perishability trap. Obvious 00:11:27.080 --> 00:11:30.779 point, but critical. Raw milk isn't corn or beans. 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:33.299 Right, it's got that biological countdown timer. 00:11:33.460 --> 00:11:36.399 Maybe 72 hours from cow to processing before 00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:38.799 quality drops. Creates distressed inventory. 00:11:39.399 --> 00:11:43.000 When the spring flesh spikes production 6 -7%, 00:11:43.000 --> 00:11:46.879 that clock becomes a loaded gun, as the source 00:11:46.879 --> 00:11:49.860 puts it. Farmers racing bacterial counts while 00:11:49.860 --> 00:11:51.960 their corn farming neighbor can just wait for 00:11:51.960 --> 00:11:55.340 better prices. Exactly. Second failure. Processing 00:11:55.340 --> 00:11:58.009 capacity. The rigid bottleneck. The source claims 00:11:58.009 --> 00:12:01.429 most plants run at 85 -95 % capacity normally. 00:12:01.769 --> 00:12:04.870 Leaving virtually no surge capability. The analogy 00:12:04.870 --> 00:12:07.269 is running your parlor at max throughput every 00:12:07.269 --> 00:12:09.350 single day. One hiccup and you're overwhelmed. 00:12:09.690 --> 00:12:11.649 A typical 2 million pound fertility might only 00:12:11.649 --> 00:12:14.629 have 200 ,000 -300 ,000 pounds of surge capacity. 00:12:15.029 --> 00:12:16.850 Which the source says is less than the daily 00:12:16.850 --> 00:12:19.440 production of 30 large farms. That buffer gets 00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:21.460 wiped out fast during the flush. And what the 00:12:21.460 --> 00:12:23.879 source finds even more infuriating is that processors 00:12:23.879 --> 00:12:26.299 know exactly when the spring flush will hit. 00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:28.799 It's not a surprise hurricane. It's as predictable 00:12:28.799 --> 00:12:31.360 as calving dates. Yet the claim is infrastructure 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:34.340 is consistently built for average volumes, not 00:12:34.340 --> 00:12:38.259 peaks. Citing 2024 again. Force dumping in the 00:12:38.259 --> 00:12:41.340 upper Midwest. Wisconsin co -ops diverting milk 00:12:41.340 --> 00:12:44.320 out of state at high cost. Regional price discounts 00:12:44.320 --> 00:12:47.600 of 2 to 33 LARs per hundredweight due to local 00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:50.460 oversupply. All presented as evidence of this 00:12:50.460 --> 00:12:52.820 structural issue. Okay, what's failure number 00:12:52.820 --> 00:12:56.600 three? The school closure demand crater. Schools 00:12:56.600 --> 00:12:59.679 are a big chunk of fluid milk use, maybe 7 -10 00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:03.039 % regionally. And they shut down en masse right 00:13:03.039 --> 00:13:05.759 around Memorial Day. It's not complicated forecasting, 00:13:06.100 --> 00:13:08.419 the source says. It's a recurring calendar event. 00:13:08.840 --> 00:13:11.220 But it feels like processors treat it like surprise 00:13:11.220 --> 00:13:13.720 weather. That's the implication. Yeah. Memorial 00:13:13.720 --> 00:13:16.059 Day weekend doesn't just cut school demand. It 00:13:16.059 --> 00:13:18.179 eliminates it for three, four days. Creating 00:13:18.179 --> 00:13:20.740 an immediate demand crater that processors somehow 00:13:20.740 --> 00:13:22.820 forget to account for, according to the source. 00:13:23.000 --> 00:13:24.559 All while production is hitting its absolute 00:13:24.559 --> 00:13:27.120 peak. Makes sense. And the fourth systemic issue. 00:13:27.360 --> 00:13:29.899 Transportation and logistics. The invisible choke 00:13:29.899 --> 00:13:32.600 point. Ah, so even if you could process it and 00:13:32.600 --> 00:13:34.539 had demand, you might not be able to move it. 00:13:34.679 --> 00:13:37.559 That's the argument. Moving six, seven percent 00:13:37.559 --> 00:13:41.210 more. Milk strains transport networks. Milk hauling 00:13:41.210 --> 00:13:43.850 operates on just -in -time scheduling with minimal 00:13:43.850 --> 00:13:46.649 excess capacity. Roots are optimized for average 00:13:46.649 --> 00:13:49.429 volumes. Spike production and suddenly transport 00:13:49.429 --> 00:13:52.850 is the bottleneck. A 2024 example cited. Wisconsin 00:13:52.850 --> 00:13:55.549 farms with processing available maybe 200 miles 00:13:55.549 --> 00:13:57.730 away. But couldn't get trucks because haulers 00:13:57.730 --> 00:14:00.690 were maxed out, resulting directly in dumping. 00:14:00.909 --> 00:14:03.330 The source asks why co -ops aren't investing 00:14:03.330 --> 00:14:06.149 in surge transport capacity like they might invest 00:14:06.149 --> 00:14:08.960 in surge storage. Okay, so that's a pretty bleak 00:14:08.960 --> 00:14:11.340 picture of the problems identified by the source. 00:14:11.500 --> 00:14:13.960 What about solutions? Well, the document's view 00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:17.059 is summarized under technology solutions. Innovation 00:14:17.059 --> 00:14:20.980 exists. Adoption doesn't. The core idea, while 00:14:20.980 --> 00:14:23.340 dairy's dumping milk using old methods. Other 00:14:23.340 --> 00:14:25.500 sectors, even within ag, have revolutionized 00:14:25.500 --> 00:14:27.799 forecasting and supply chain tech. Companies 00:14:27.799 --> 00:14:29.679 like Milk Movement get mentioned specifically, 00:14:29.980 --> 00:14:32.460 offering platforms with better forecasting, real 00:14:32.460 --> 00:14:34.740 -time tracking. That the source claims are specifically 00:14:34.740 --> 00:14:38.200 designed to reduce dumped milk. Calls it DHI 00:14:38.200 --> 00:14:40.120 testing for your supply chain. That's a good 00:14:40.120 --> 00:14:42.779 analogy for this audience. And the scale is significant. 00:14:43.179 --> 00:14:46.120 Milk movement reportedly managing over 30 billion 00:14:46.120 --> 00:14:49.039 pounds annually, like 15 % of the U .S. market. 00:14:49.220 --> 00:14:52.159 Working with 2 ,500 farms, over 5 ,000 users, 00:14:52.320 --> 00:14:55.379 including big Fortune 100 companies. AI -driven 00:14:55.379 --> 00:14:58.279 forecasting is discussed too. Analyzing historical 00:14:58.279 --> 00:15:01.379 data, weather, market trends, holidays, generating 00:15:01.379 --> 00:15:04.460 precise predictions. Reports cited suggest AI 00:15:04.460 --> 00:15:07.659 can cut food waste up to 30%. optimize supply 00:15:07.659 --> 00:15:11.460 chains, reduce spoilage by 50%. The sources analogy 00:15:11.460 --> 00:15:14.019 here, like moving from visual heat detection 00:15:14.019 --> 00:15:17.059 to activity monitors, the technology exists to 00:15:17.059 --> 00:15:19.580 improve accuracy dramatically. Dynamic pricing 00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:21.740 also comes up as a potential tool. Yeah, the 00:15:21.740 --> 00:15:23.679 idea of responding to supply and demand in real 00:15:23.679 --> 00:15:26.340 time. compared to having a dynamic feed purchasing 00:15:26.340 --> 00:15:28.679 program that adjusts automatically. AI -driven 00:15:28.679 --> 00:15:30.919 dynamic pricing lets retailers adjust prices 00:15:30.919 --> 00:15:33.759 based on current costs, demand, market conditions, 00:15:34.000 --> 00:15:36.639 moving away from static pricing. Some grocers, 00:15:36.799 --> 00:15:38.720 the source says, are already exploring this, 00:15:38.860 --> 00:15:40.899 offering discounts for products near expiration. 00:15:41.399 --> 00:15:43.840 Which is directly relevant to managing perishable 00:15:43.840 --> 00:15:45.919 surplus milk at the retail end. Right. The tech 00:15:45.919 --> 00:15:48.120 exists in retail ag. The rules could be adapted. 00:15:48.399 --> 00:15:51.080 The source's big question here is, why aren't 00:15:51.080 --> 00:15:53.200 we demanding the sophistication from our processors? 00:15:53.580 --> 00:15:57.080 Why settle for outdated systems? Good question. 00:15:57.559 --> 00:16:00.500 Shifting slightly, the source looks at what forward 00:16:00.500 --> 00:16:03.320 -thinking cooperatives are actually doing. Spoiler, 00:16:03.419 --> 00:16:06.039 not enough. Suggests some progressive co -ops 00:16:06.039 --> 00:16:08.059 aren't just waiting around, acting like farmers 00:16:08.059 --> 00:16:10.480 who adopted robotic milkers before their neighbors 00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:13.419 figured out what a VMS system was. USDA funding 00:16:13.419 --> 00:16:15.220 gets a mention the Dairy Business Innovation 00:16:15.220 --> 00:16:20.940 Initiatives, DBI, $11 .04 million in 24. Wisconsin's 00:16:20.940 --> 00:16:24.820 DBIA got $3 .45 million for the Midwest. And 00:16:24.820 --> 00:16:27.240 the program offers grants, dairy business builders 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:30.159 up to $100 for small -medium ops, and industry 00:16:30.159 --> 00:16:33.379 impact grants from $50K to $250K for innovative 00:16:33.379 --> 00:16:36.009 ideas. But here's the source's critique. Yeah, 00:16:36.049 --> 00:16:38.230 the critical point is that these programs, while 00:16:38.230 --> 00:16:40.889 good, focus more on product development and marketing 00:16:40.889 --> 00:16:43.250 than addressing fundamental forecasting and surplus 00:16:43.250 --> 00:16:46.230 management challenges. The analogy. Investing 00:16:46.230 --> 00:16:48.409 heavily in genetics but ignoring herd nutrition. 00:16:49.029 --> 00:16:51.029 Solving part of the problem, missing the core 00:16:51.029 --> 00:16:53.549 issue driving dumping. What's needed, according 00:16:53.549 --> 00:16:55.889 to this source, are co -ops actively exploring 00:16:55.889 --> 00:16:58.919 regional milk supply balancing. Like... Sharing 00:16:58.919 --> 00:17:01.299 of breeding services across farms, maybe? That 00:17:01.299 --> 00:17:03.480 kind of thinking. Plus strategic investments 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:06.259 in flexible processing facilities. Ones that 00:17:06.259 --> 00:17:08.740 can shift between products easily, like farms 00:17:08.740 --> 00:17:11.000 adapt barns for different needs. And establishing 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:13.579 real -time data collaboration between processors 00:17:13.579 --> 00:17:16.920 and retailers. Similar to how progressive farms 00:17:16.920 --> 00:17:19.799 share production data internally or with consultants. 00:17:20.200 --> 00:17:22.900 The harsh reality check, as the source puts it, 00:17:22.940 --> 00:17:25.720 is most co -ops still operate like they're marketing 00:17:25.720 --> 00:17:28.890 commodity corn. instead of a highly perishable 00:17:28.890 --> 00:17:31.690 product. Okay, what about policy? The source 00:17:31.690 --> 00:17:35.230 discusses the policy vacuum subsidizing failure 00:17:35.230 --> 00:17:38.150 instead of preventing it. Right. It argues that 00:17:38.150 --> 00:17:40.869 current FMMO rules for pooling dumped milk at 00:17:40.869 --> 00:17:43.650 the lowest price are just reactive. They distribute 00:17:43.650 --> 00:17:46.009 losses after they happen. Sharply compared to 00:17:46.009 --> 00:17:48.089 a herd health protocol that only treats sick 00:17:48.089 --> 00:17:51.589 cows, doesn't prevent disease. The USDA's milk 00:17:51.589 --> 00:17:54.250 loss program, as mentioned, compensates for weather 00:17:54.250 --> 00:17:56.970 disasters. but not for these systemic processing 00:17:56.970 --> 00:17:59.410 or forecasting failures, as the source points 00:17:59.410 --> 00:18:02.430 out. So we have programs for unpredictable floods 00:18:02.430 --> 00:18:05.349 and hurricanes, but nothing specifically for 00:18:05.349 --> 00:18:09.170 this annual predictable crisis. Framed as a fundamental 00:18:09.170 --> 00:18:11.630 policy failure, like crop insurance covering 00:18:11.630 --> 00:18:13.930 hail, but not predictable drought in a drought 00:18:13.930 --> 00:18:16.309 -prone area. The uncomfortable question posed, 00:18:16.650 --> 00:18:20.890 why are taxpayers and farmers, in its view, subsidizing 00:18:20.890 --> 00:18:23.789 processor incompetence instead of demanding actual 00:18:23.789 --> 00:18:27.359 solutions? Through policy. Heavy stuff. The source 00:18:27.359 --> 00:18:29.039 then brings it back right to the farm level. 00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:31.200 What this crisis means for your bottom line. 00:18:31.460 --> 00:18:34.059 The argument. Even if your farm hasn't directly 00:18:34.059 --> 00:18:36.960 dumped milk, these events still hit your wallet. 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:39.299 How so? The source contends that spring flesh 00:18:39.299 --> 00:18:41.960 dumping adds to overall market oversupply, depressing 00:18:41.960 --> 00:18:44.420 prices for all milk pooled through Class 3 and 00:18:44.420 --> 00:18:47.519 4. Ah, the relatable analogy again. One farm's 00:18:47.519 --> 00:18:50.279 high SCC affecting the whole bulk tank quality 00:18:50.279 --> 00:18:53.559 or price. Systemic failures impact everyone financially. 00:18:54.269 --> 00:18:56.910 For farms already on thin margins, thinner than 00:18:56.910 --> 00:18:59.069 optimal body condition scores, as the source 00:18:59.069 --> 00:19:01.390 puts it. These dumping events accelerate consolidation 00:19:01.390 --> 00:19:04.930 and farm exits. Even if you don't dump, the source 00:19:04.930 --> 00:19:06.710 suggests you're likely paying through reduced 00:19:06.710 --> 00:19:09.569 spring prices, increased market volatility affecting 00:19:09.569 --> 00:19:12.309 contracts. A competitive disadvantage if your 00:19:12.309 --> 00:19:15.609 region lacks flexibility and higher co -op marketing 00:19:15.609 --> 00:19:18.289 costs spread across members. The brutal truth, 00:19:18.569 --> 00:19:21.910 according to this document, every gallon dumped 00:19:21.910 --> 00:19:25.609 is money stolen from your milk check. Wow. But 00:19:25.609 --> 00:19:27.369 it doesn't just leave it there, right? It looks 00:19:27.369 --> 00:19:29.769 at positive examples. Yes. Under the innovation 00:19:29.769 --> 00:19:31.829 that's already happening, why aren't you part 00:19:31.829 --> 00:19:34.589 of it? Points out smart farmers aren't just waiting. 00:19:34.750 --> 00:19:37.130 Some investing in on -farm processing cheese, 00:19:37.509 --> 00:19:39.890 yogurt for flexibility during surplus times. 00:19:40.170 --> 00:19:42.190 Others developing direct marketing relationships, 00:19:42.589 --> 00:19:45.269 bypassing traditional bottlenecks. Like farms 00:19:45.269 --> 00:19:47.470 marketing breeding stock directly instead of 00:19:47.470 --> 00:19:49.789 through auction. Makes sense. Aggressive operations, 00:19:50.230 --> 00:19:52.470 the source says, are using real -time production 00:19:52.470 --> 00:19:55.289 monitoring for early surge warnings. Exploring 00:19:55.289 --> 00:19:57.730 alternative outlets like ingredient manufacturing, 00:19:57.970 --> 00:20:00.430 creating value -added products to absorb peaks. 00:20:00.750 --> 00:20:02.529 Leveraging direct marketing to maybe capture 00:20:02.529 --> 00:20:05.369 premiums when commodity prices are low due to 00:20:05.369 --> 00:20:08.609 dumping. The source's point. The tech and market 00:20:08.609 --> 00:20:11.369 opportunities exist for farmers to take some 00:20:11.369 --> 00:20:14.130 control. Directly asking, so what's your excuse? 00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:17.420 for not exploring these options. Oof. Leads to 00:20:17.420 --> 00:20:20.460 the conclusion. Bottom line. Stop accepting the 00:20:20.460 --> 00:20:22.640 unacceptable. Yeah, the concluding argument is 00:20:22.640 --> 00:20:25.339 powerful. Memorial Day dumping isn't an act of 00:20:25.339 --> 00:20:27.960 God. It's framed as a management failure accepted 00:20:27.960 --> 00:20:30.559 for too long. Like tolerating high SEC because 00:20:30.559 --> 00:20:32.940 that's just dairy farming. This collision of 00:20:32.940 --> 00:20:36.740 predictable biology and what it calls antiquated 00:20:36.740 --> 00:20:40.259 methods is bankrupting farms and destroying value. 00:20:40.500 --> 00:20:42.700 And the solutions, the source says, are already 00:20:42.700 --> 00:20:45.430 here. More analogies. AI forecasting is like 00:20:45.430 --> 00:20:48.269 genomic evaluations for market prediction. Dynamic 00:20:48.269 --> 00:20:50.829 pricing like automated feeding systems responding 00:20:50.829 --> 00:20:53.609 to cow needs. Flexible infrastructure like modern 00:20:53.609 --> 00:20:55.690 freestalls adaptable to group sizes. But the 00:20:55.690 --> 00:20:57.890 source is clear. Change requires farmers demanding 00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:01.109 it. Processors investing in modernizing. Policymakers 00:21:01.109 --> 00:21:03.650 recognizing predictable crises need proactive 00:21:03.650 --> 00:21:06.250 solutions, not just reactive band -aids. Looking 00:21:06.250 --> 00:21:08.970 ahead, it poses that question. Memorial Day 2026, 00:21:09.269 --> 00:21:12.349 365 days away. Dump milk again or fix the system. 00:21:12.730 --> 00:21:16.170 And it lays out your move, the five -point action 00:21:16.170 --> 00:21:19.990 plan for farmers to refuse a status quo. Okay, 00:21:20.049 --> 00:21:22.569 what are the five points? First, challenge your 00:21:22.569 --> 00:21:25.529 cooperative's forecasting transparency. Demand 00:21:25.529 --> 00:21:27.509 their accuracy rates during the spring flush. 00:21:27.750 --> 00:21:30.769 If they can't provide them, ask why not. Second. 00:21:30.930 --> 00:21:33.410 Push for real -time data sharing agreements with 00:21:33.410 --> 00:21:36.569 processors, like sharing DHI data. Get rid of 00:21:36.569 --> 00:21:39.130 the black box decision making. Make info flow 00:21:39.130 --> 00:21:43.559 transparently. Third. Explore DBI grant opportunities, 00:21:43.960 --> 00:21:47.339 specifically for alternative marketing or value 00:21:47.339 --> 00:21:50.079 -added processing to manage peaks. Notes builder 00:21:50.079 --> 00:21:52.480 grant applications are accepted regularly. Makes 00:21:52.480 --> 00:21:54.970 sense. Fourth. Demand investment in flexible 00:21:54.970 --> 00:21:57.789 processing capacity from your co -op. Capacity 00:21:57.789 --> 00:22:00.009 designed for peaks, not just averages, compares 00:22:00.009 --> 00:22:02.390 it again to farmers investing in adaptable facilities. 00:22:02.890 --> 00:22:05.849 And fifth, directly connect with technology providers 00:22:05.849 --> 00:22:08.430 like Milk Movement. Notice they already manage 00:22:08.430 --> 00:22:10.950 15 % of the market, reportedly cutting costs 00:22:10.950 --> 00:22:13.309 for clients dealing with these issues. The source's 00:22:13.309 --> 00:22:15.609 strong conclusion, the power to change starts 00:22:15.609 --> 00:22:18.269 with informed farmers refusing to accept that's 00:22:18.269 --> 00:22:20.529 how we've always done it. Yeah, it finishes with 00:22:20.529 --> 00:22:24.099 a direct call. Stop subsidizing processor incompetence 00:22:24.099 --> 00:22:26.859 with your milk check. Demand better. Your farm's 00:22:26.859 --> 00:22:29.299 survival depends on it. And the immediate action 00:22:29.299 --> 00:22:32.559 step it suggests. Simply ask your co -op, what's 00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:34.680 your forecasting accuracy rate during spring 00:22:34.680 --> 00:22:37.240 flush and what are you doing to improve it? The 00:22:37.240 --> 00:22:39.740 source contends their answer, or lack thereof, 00:22:39.839 --> 00:22:41.779 tells you everything about their seriousness 00:22:41.779 --> 00:22:44.740 in fixing this predictable crisis. So, okay, 00:22:44.819 --> 00:22:47.599 pulling back from the source itself, what does 00:22:47.599 --> 00:22:50.839 this deep dive into why Memorial Day kills dairy 00:22:50.839 --> 00:22:54.089 farms? really boil down to? Well, it certainly 00:22:54.089 --> 00:22:57.529 paints a challenging picture. Very critical of 00:22:57.529 --> 00:23:00.130 how the annual spring flush meets processing 00:23:00.130 --> 00:23:02.569 and logistics limits. The source just hammers 00:23:02.569 --> 00:23:04.450 home again and again that this isn't a surprise. 00:23:04.569 --> 00:23:07.430 It frames it as predictable biology hitting outdated, 00:23:07.670 --> 00:23:10.349 rigid systems. A systemic failure built into 00:23:10.349 --> 00:23:12.849 the structure in its view, not some random event 00:23:12.849 --> 00:23:15.470 you just endure. Right. We've covered the source's 00:23:15.470 --> 00:23:17.509 points on the predictability of the flush itself. 00:23:17.730 --> 00:23:20.269 The big financial impact beyond just the dumped 00:23:20.269 --> 00:23:22.589 milk. the pooling mechanics, price depression. 00:23:22.990 --> 00:23:25.349 We looked at its arguments about the key systemic 00:23:25.349 --> 00:23:28.609 failures it identifies. Perishability, rigid 00:23:28.609 --> 00:23:32.450 capacity, the school demand drop, transport constraints. 00:23:32.769 --> 00:23:34.970 And we explored its perspective on tech solutions 00:23:34.970 --> 00:23:38.730 like AI forecasting and real -time data. Contracted 00:23:38.730 --> 00:23:41.109 with its critique of current industry and policy 00:23:41.109 --> 00:23:45.950 responses as, well, not enough or maybe misdirected. 00:23:46.190 --> 00:23:49.490 Ultimately, this document presents a really clear, 00:23:49.609 --> 00:23:53.069 urgent call to action aimed squarely at farmers. 00:23:53.329 --> 00:23:55.529 Urging them to challenge the status quo, demand 00:23:55.529 --> 00:23:58.369 transparency, push for investment in modern solutions, 00:23:58.630 --> 00:24:01.309 AI, flexible infrastructure from their co -ops, 00:24:01.369 --> 00:24:03.329 and the wider industry. And here's where it gets 00:24:03.329 --> 00:24:05.009 interesting, right? That final question that 00:24:05.009 --> 00:24:06.849 leaves us with. Yeah, looking ahead. Memorial 00:24:06.849 --> 00:24:09.769 Day 2026 is coming. Are you going to dump milk 00:24:09.769 --> 00:24:12.230 again? Or will you be part of fixing the system? 00:24:12.430 --> 00:24:14.390 It really leaves us with a thought for you, the 00:24:14.390 --> 00:24:16.789 listener, to consider after hewing all this, 00:24:16.930 --> 00:24:19.009 reflecting on the issues raised in this deep 00:24:19.009 --> 00:24:21.950 dive. What specific actionable step, maybe even 00:24:21.950 --> 00:24:24.230 a small one, will you take based on this information 00:24:24.230 --> 00:24:27.049 to push for change in your part of the dairy 00:24:27.049 --> 00:24:29.769 industry? That's a wrap on today's episode of 00:24:29.769 --> 00:24:33.029 the Bullvine Podcast. If this episode made you 00:24:33.029 --> 00:24:37.069 angry, good. That anger is the first step toward 00:24:37.069 --> 00:24:39.609 demanding the changes our industry desperately 00:24:39.609 --> 00:24:45.960 needs. Memorial Day 2026 is 365 days away. The 00:24:45.960 --> 00:24:48.140 question isn't whether the spring flush will 00:24:48.140 --> 00:24:50.539 happen again. It's whether you're going to let 00:24:50.539 --> 00:24:53.759 processors dump your milk while acting surprised 00:24:53.759 --> 00:24:57.740 about predictable biological realities. Here's 00:24:57.740 --> 00:25:00.700 your homework. Before next week, ask your cooperative 00:25:00.700 --> 00:25:03.900 one simple question. What's your forecasting 00:25:03.900 --> 00:25:07.319 accuracy rate during spring flush, and what are 00:25:07.319 --> 00:25:10.309 you doing to improve it? Their answer will tell 00:25:10.309 --> 00:25:12.630 you everything you need to know about whether 00:25:12.630 --> 00:25:15.250 they're part of the solution or part of the problem. 00:25:15.609 --> 00:25:19.089 Remember, the power to change this broken system 00:25:19.089 --> 00:25:22.589 starts with informed farmers who refuse to accept 00:25:22.589 --> 00:25:27.029 the status quo. Stop subsidizing processor incompetence. 00:25:27.109 --> 00:25:30.509 Demand better. Your farm's survival depends on 00:25:30.509 --> 00:25:43.289 it. Visit us at www .thebullvine .com. Don't 00:25:43.289 --> 00:25:45.670 forget to subscribe and share this episode with 00:25:45.670 --> 00:25:48.390 other farmers who are ready to stop accepting 00:25:48.390 --> 00:25:51.069 that's how we've always done it as an answer. 00:25:51.369 --> 00:25:54.309 Until next time, keep challenging the industry 00:25:54.309 --> 00:25:57.809 to do better. Your cows, your bank account, and 00:25:57.809 --> 00:26:00.430 the future of dairy farming depend on it. This 00:26:00.430 --> 00:26:03.049 has been the Bullvine Podcast. We'll see you 00:26:03.049 --> 00:26:03.569 next time.