WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your no -nonsense

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source for dairy strategies that actually work.

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Today, we're tackling the question every dairy

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producer should be asking, will your farm survive

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2025? In this episode, we're breaking down the

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make -or -break risks facing dairies next year,

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from HPAI outbreaks that spread faster than gossip

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at a county fair, to milk price swings that could

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leave your margins thinner than a fresh heifer's

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patience. You'll hear hard truths from Everett

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Ag's Jim Matthews about why wait and see is the

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riskiest strategy of all, and discover how top

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producers are using robotics, forward contracts,

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and yes, even solar panels to future -proof their

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operations. If you're ready to stop reacting

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to crises and start preventing them, let's dig

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in. Alright, welcome back everyone. We're diving

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into something pretty crucial today, something

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we here at the Bullvine think needs a serious

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look. Definitely. You've probably seen the headlines,

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maybe felt the ground shifting a bit already.

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2025's dairy crisis is coming. Will your farm

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survive? Yeah. Pretty stark stuff. It is. And

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that's the kind of question we need to grapple

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with head on, wouldn't you say? Absolutely. And

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look, for those of you tuning in and we know

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you're knowledgeable dairy farmers. Industry

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pros, let's be really clear, hoping for the best.

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That's, well, it's just not going to cut it in

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2025. Not even close. So we're diving deep today

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into risk management, strategies that honestly

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aren't just nice -to -haves anymore. They're

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becoming absolute essentials for navigating what

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looks like a potentially bumpy road ahead. Right.

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We're not here for Dairy 101. No, no. We know

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you know the basics. We're here for the practical

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stuff, the nitty -gritty that impacts your daily

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operations, and frankly, your long -term survival.

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Exactly. Consider this a deep dive focused on

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getting you prepared. Our mission today, really,

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as we unpack all this information, is to pull

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out those actionable insights, the things that

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can make a real difference for your operation

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come 2025. Yeah, maybe challenging some older

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ways of thinking, too. Definitely ditching the

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old playbook in some areas, getting laser -focused

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on what keeps your farm not just, you know, afloat,

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but actually thriving. And the pressures, well,

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they seem to be coming from everywhere, don't

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they? Our sources are painting a picture of some

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serious headwinds for 2025. You're not wrong.

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unpredictable milk prices, for one. Doing the

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cha -cha as unpredictable as a fresh heifer,

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right? Yeah, that's a good way to put it. And

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then feed costs. Always hovering seemingly one

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bad weather event away from spiking. One drought

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away from chaos, basically. Exactly. Plus you've

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got the ongoing threat of HPAI, labor shortages

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that just don't seem to quit. Shifting consumer

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demands, regulatory curveballs. It's a lot. It

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really is. A confluence of pressures, you could

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say. Like a perfect storm brewing. So the real

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question isn't if things get tricky, but how

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are you, listening right now, going to steer

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your operation through it all? Right. So where

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do we start? Maybe with the immediate dollars

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and cents. Good call. Because managing the finances,

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well, that's often where the immediate battles

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are won or lost, isn't it? Absolutely. And our

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sources are really hammering this home, just

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wishing for better prices, hoping for the best.

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It's not a strategy. It's like yelling at the

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clouds, hoping it'll rain. Pretty much. And look

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at the recent USDA forecast revision, the all

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-milk price down to $21 .10 per hundredweight.

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That's not exactly great news. No kidding. And

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like you said, feed costs might look okay today,

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but we're always on that edge. Always. The source

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material puts it bluntly, one bad weather event

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away from chaos. Imagine that drought hitting

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the Corn Belt. Suddenly those feed bills look

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terrifying. So the smart play isn't trying to

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guess the market highs and lows. It's about building

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a really solid financial safety net. And actually

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using that net. Yes, exactly. And the first tool

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in that financial toolkit, according to everything

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we're seeing, has got to be the Dairy Margin

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Coverage Program, DMC. The foundation, they call

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it. For good reason. Think about it. It's triggered

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payments in, what, 66 %? of months since 2018

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two -thirds of the time that's a heck of a track

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record for a relatively low cost tool it really

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is it makes you wonder the article practically

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challenges people asking why wouldn't you be

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enrolled at the nine dollars and fifty cent tier

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one level right it feels like basic financial

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hygiene in this climate you're putting a floor

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under your margin it's cheap insurance against

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a major downturn to not use it seems like leaving

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money on the table so Building on DMC, what's

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next in the toolkit? Well, next up is Dairy Revenue

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Protection, or DRP. Ah, yes. DRP. This one lets

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you lock in a revenue floor based on expected

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milk prices. And the key things there are flexibility

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and the subsidy, right? Exactly. You can tailor

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it to specific quarters, which is huge. And yes,

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it's subsidized, which makes it more affordable.

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The message seems to be, don't ignore this. Look

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for opportunities to lock in that protection

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when the market gives you a decent level. Definitely.

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Don't just set it and forget it. Be active. Then

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there's another layer for some folks, LGM dairy,

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livestock gross margin. Right, LGM dairy. Who's

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that really best suited for? Well, the sources

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suggest it's particularly useful if your farm's

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margins tend to track with things like Class

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III futures, corn, and soy prices. Okay. You

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can layer it with DMC. It basically protects

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that gross margin, the difference between milk

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revenue and feed costs. Another piece of the

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puzzle. Gotcha. So moving from government programs

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to more direct market tools. Forward contracts.

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DFPP. If you're a handler, your co -op offers

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them. You should probably take a serious look.

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That's the advice. Use them for at least a portion

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of your milk. It gives you some price certainty.

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Yeah, it's not about hitting the absolute peak

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price, is it? It's about managing risk. Taking

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some volatility off the table. Precisely. And

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then for the more, let's say, market -savvy operators.

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Futures and options on the CME. Yep. Powerful

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tools for hedging both milk and feed. But this

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is a big margin call. Exactly. The sources rightly

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caution about that. This isn't for everyone.

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You need the expertise and the risk tolerance.

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It's definitely an advanced strategy. But the

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big picture here, financially speaking, is be

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proactive. Don't wait. That's the quote, isn't

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it? Don't wait for the perfect price. Lock in

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protection when you can. Don't get caught waiting

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for a peak that might never come or comes too

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late. When you see a chance to protect your downside.

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grab it. Makes sense. Okay, so finances are one

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massive piece. What about securing the actual

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production side, keeping cows healthy and milking?

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Yeah, another critical area. And in 2025, like

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you mentioned earlier, that conversation has

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to start with biosecurity, especially with HPAI

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still looming. It has to. And the sources really

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push on this, asking how robust is your biosecurity

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really? Are you just checking boxes or is it

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deeply ingrained? That's the core question. It's

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not about having a binder on the shelf. It's

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about habits, protocols that actually work under

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pressure. And they lay out some non -negotiables.

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Like pasteurizing all milk and colostrum. No

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exceptions. Strict quarantine for new animals.

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Seems obvious, but... But are people really doing

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it rigorously? And sanitizing equipment like

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it's an operating room? Yeah, that comparison

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hits home. Biosecurity is the operating room

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for your farm's health. It's got to be as fundamental

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as feed and water. Because a major outbreak doesn't

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just hurt production temporarily, it can cripple

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you financially. It's playing with fire to cut

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corners here. Totally agree. Then there's the

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climate piece. It's not going away. No. And the

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challenge is, are you actively investing in heat

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stress mitigation? Fans, sprinklers, shade? Or

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are you just crossing your fingers for a cool

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summer? Which, let's be honest, isn't much of

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a plan anymore. Relying on Mother Nature's mood

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swings is risky business these days. And it's

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not just cow comfort, right? It's feed security,

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too. Absolutely. Optimizing irrigation, planting

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more drought -tolerant forages. Are you looking

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at those things? These aren't just buzzwords.

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They're becoming essential for ensuring you have

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reliable, affordable feed when the weather gets

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weird. And it leads to that tough question the

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sources pose. Are you going to be caught flat

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-footed by the next heat wave or disease outbreak?

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Or will your herd keep ticking along while others

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are scrambling? That resilience is a huge competitive

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edge. Huge. Okay, let's pivot again. Operational

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efficiency. Labor. Technology. Ah, yes. Labor.

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The perennial challenge. And the sources don't

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mince words here either. Are you still managing

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labor like it's 1995? Ouch. But it's a fair question.

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It is. Because that workforce isn't coming back

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to how it was. And the folks who are working

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have higher expectations. Things have fundamentally

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shifted. And hoping it goes back... Probably

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not happening. Which leads directly to automation.

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It's not the future anymore, is it? It's the

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present necessity for a lot of farms. Take robotic

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milking. The potential labor reduction, 60 to

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75 percent. That's massive. It's a game changer.

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And the source compares investing in it to like

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safeguarding your corn silage harvest. It's that

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critical an investment potentially. That's a

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strong comparison. And it's not just milking.

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Automated feeding. Wearable sensors. Huge time

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savers. Plus those sensors for early disease

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detection. That allows your skilled people. To

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focus on more strategic stuff, not just routine

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tasks or spotting sick cows visually. Exactly.

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Using their skills where they add the most value.

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And let's talk precision feeding. The financial

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impact there can be significant. Yeah. Are you

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still eyeballing rations, as they put it? Or

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using data? Because the difference, according

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to the numbers, could be $1 .75 to $1 .50 per

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hundredweight in saved production costs. Over

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a year on a decent -sized herd, that adds up

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fast. It absolutely does. The bottom line on

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efficiency is simple. Every dollar saved on feed

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or labor is a dollar you keep, especially when

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milk prices are tight. Those efficiency gains

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are your buffer during downturns. Critical stuff.

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Okay, so we've covered finances, production security,

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efficiency. What about the market itself? Adapting

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to where things are headed. Crucial point. Are

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you producing what the market actually wants

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or just what you've always produced? Things like

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milk components, sustainability proof points,

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animal welfare. Those aren't just niche things

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anymore. They're increasingly mainstream demands.

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Which means you need to look hard at your marketing

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strategy. Are you comparing your co -op deal

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versus direct contracts? Really running the numbers,

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not just sticking with what's familiar. Sometimes

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comfortable isn't the most profitable. Good point.

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And then there's diversification. On -farm processing,

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maybe agritourism, beef on dairy, renewable energy.

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Our sources frame these not as trends, but as

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proven ways to spread risk and capture new income.

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It's about not having all your eggs in the bulk

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milk basket, building multiple revenue pillars.

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Ultimately, it comes down to willingness to change,

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doesn't it? Will you adapt or will the market

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just leave you behind? That's the stark choice.

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Standing still is often the biggest risk now.

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So putting all these pieces together, finance,

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production, efficiency, market adaptation, how

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do you make it all work? Through an integrated

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risk management plan. That's the key takeaway.

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It's not about putting out fires reactively.

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It's about proactive prevention, building resilience

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everywhere. And the resilient dairies. They have

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that diversified portfolio, a mix of financial

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tools. Strong herd health and biosecurity going

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beyond just HPAI. Investments in climate adaptation,

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heat stress, water, forages. Relentless focus

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on efficiency through automation, precision ag,

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keeping good employees, adaptive marketing, focusing

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on quality, maybe sustainability niches. Rigorous

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financial planning budgets, scenario plans, cash

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flow projections. And staying plugged in on policy

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and regulations. Farm bill, FMMO, environmental

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rules. You can't afford to ignore that stuff.

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It directly impacts your business. It all leads

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to that bullvine bottom line section in the source

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material, which is pretty blunt. Very blunt.

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It says many dairies might not survive the decade.

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Not because of bad farming, but because of poor

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risk management. Sobering. But it also paints

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a picture of the farms that will thrive. Yeah,

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the vigilant ones. Adaptable. Always improving.

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Data -driven. Tech -savvy. Financially disciplined.

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Honest about weaknesses and actually doing something

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about them. Proactive. It's a high bar, but it's

00:12:31.009 --> 00:12:33.649
achievable. And the call to action is crystal

00:12:33.649 --> 00:12:36.909
clear. Don't wait for a crisis. Exactly. Schedule

00:12:36.909 --> 00:12:39.370
that risk management audit. Talk to your team,

00:12:39.470 --> 00:12:42.870
your advisors, ever. Ag gets mentioned as a resource

00:12:42.870 --> 00:12:45.330
there. Find your vulnerabilities, make a plan,

00:12:45.490 --> 00:12:47.649
and then act on it. Don't just make the plan

00:12:47.649 --> 00:12:49.970
and put it on the shelf. Right. Action is key.

00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:52.720
And it leaves everyone listening with that direct

00:12:52.720 --> 00:12:55.799
challenge. What action will you take today to

00:12:55.799 --> 00:12:58.539
secure your dairy's future tomorrow? Powerful

00:12:58.539 --> 00:13:00.840
question. So just to recap those key takeaways

00:13:00.840 --> 00:13:03.740
quickly. Layer Financial Protection's DMC DRP

00:13:03.740 --> 00:13:06.820
forwards. Don't rely on just one. Automate or

00:13:06.820 --> 00:13:09.960
stagnate robotics. Sensors are vital now. Secure

00:13:09.960 --> 00:13:12.899
feed strategically lock in 60 -70 % when prices

00:13:12.899 --> 00:13:15.919
dip. Biosecurity equals profitability. Take HPAI

00:13:15.919 --> 00:13:18.240
protocols dead seriously. And milk components

00:13:18.240 --> 00:13:21.139
matter. Chase those butterfat and protein premiums.

00:13:21.139 --> 00:13:23.480
Yeah. And the executive summary just reinforces

00:13:23.480 --> 00:13:27.340
all that. Unprecedented volatility in 2025. Need

00:13:27.340 --> 00:13:30.220
for these strategies. Data over tradition. It

00:13:30.220 --> 00:13:32.879
even quotes Jim Matthews from Ever .ag, emphasizing

00:13:32.879 --> 00:13:36.039
decisive action, tech adoption, strategic contracts

00:13:36.039 --> 00:13:38.740
over just doing things the old way. So wrapping

00:13:38.740 --> 00:13:41.559
this deep dive up, the message couldn't be clearer,

00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:44.779
could it? Not really. Proactive, integrated risk

00:13:44.779 --> 00:13:47.139
management. That's the key differentiator for

00:13:47.139 --> 00:13:49.919
success in 2025. It's not optional anymore. We

00:13:49.919 --> 00:13:51.639
really hope you listening will take some time.

00:13:51.679 --> 00:13:54.159
Reflect on these points. Where are your biggest

00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:56.100
vulnerabilities? What's one thing you can start

00:13:56.100 --> 00:13:58.620
tackling right now? Yeah, use this as a starting

00:13:58.620 --> 00:14:01.840
point. Talk to your advisors. Dig deeper. Start

00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:05.200
building or refining that resilience plan for

00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:07.220
what's coming. And building on that bullvine

00:14:07.220 --> 00:14:10.340
bottom line thought, maybe the final question

00:14:10.340 --> 00:14:12.980
to leave you with is this. Five years from now,

00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:17.120
looking back at 2025, what story will your farm

00:14:17.120 --> 00:14:19.379
tell? Will it be a story of resilience and success

00:14:19.379 --> 00:14:22.440
or a cautionary tale? Something to think about.

00:14:22.519 --> 00:14:24.179
Thanks for taking this deep dive with us today.

00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:26.519
Thanks for joining us on the Bullvine Podcast.

00:14:27.240 --> 00:14:30.019
If this episode lit a fire under your risk management

00:14:30.019 --> 00:14:33.039
plans, and we hope it did, head to thebullvine

00:14:33.039 --> 00:14:35.720
.com for links to all the programs and tools

00:14:35.720 --> 00:14:38.830
we discussed. Before you go... Hit subscribe

00:14:38.830 --> 00:14:41.870
so you don't miss our next deep dive on turning

00:14:41.870 --> 00:14:45.830
2025's challenges into opportunities. Until then,

00:14:45.950 --> 00:14:48.730
remember what separates the survivors from the

00:14:48.730 --> 00:14:51.789
statistics. The best time to fix the barn roof

00:14:51.789 --> 00:14:54.649
is while the sun's still shining. From everyone

00:14:54.649 --> 00:14:57.409
here at The Bullvine, remember to keep your margins

00:14:57.409 --> 00:14:59.450
wide and your bulk tank full.
