WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:38.500 🎵 Music Playing 🎵 Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, 00:00:38.899 --> 00:00:40.880 where we cut through the noise and deliver the 00:00:40.880 --> 00:00:44.060 truths that matter to dairy professionals. Today, 00:00:44.159 --> 00:00:46.280 we're tackling a silent crisis threatening the 00:00:46.280 --> 00:00:48.840 future of Holstein breeding. Inbreeding levels 00:00:48.840 --> 00:00:51.479 in elite bulls have tripled in a decade, from 00:00:51.479 --> 00:00:55.539 5 % to 15%, while the AI bull population has 00:00:55.539 --> 00:00:59.560 plummeted by 61%. But here's the kicker. Industry 00:00:59.560 --> 00:01:02.560 metrics like expected future inbreeding, EFI, 00:01:02.799 --> 00:01:06.319 are masking the true genomic risks. Why should 00:01:06.319 --> 00:01:09.640 you care? Because unchecked, this genetic squeeze 00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:13.680 could slash lifetime profits by $3700 per cow 00:01:13.680 --> 00:01:17.099 by 2030. We'll expose why stud consolidation, 00:01:17.599 --> 00:01:20.519 contract restrictions on top sires, and the modern 00:01:20.519 --> 00:01:23.120 type of high -pinned, shallow -bodied cows are 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:26.579 red flags. But it's not all doom and gloom. We've 00:01:26.579 --> 00:01:29.629 got actionable solutions. from procross crossbreeding 00:01:29.629 --> 00:01:32.370 to demanding genomic inbreeding data from your 00:01:32.370 --> 00:01:35.090 genetic provider strap in this episode is packed 00:01:35.090 --> 00:01:38.430 with industry shaking truths and tools to future 00:01:38.430 --> 00:01:41.349 proof your herd welcome to the deep dive the 00:01:41.349 --> 00:01:43.569 show where we you know we don't just skim the 00:01:43.569 --> 00:01:46.430 surface we plunge headfirst into the data that 00:01:46.430 --> 00:01:48.590 really matters to your dairy operation that's 00:01:48.590 --> 00:01:52.489 right speaking of deep dives i mean have we maybe 00:01:52.489 --> 00:01:55.269 taken the gene pool a little too far down think 00:01:55.269 --> 00:01:59.439 about this Over the last decade, inbreeding in 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:03.400 our elite Holstein lines, it's tripled. Tripled, 00:02:03.519 --> 00:02:05.340 yep. You heard that right, three times higher. 00:02:05.819 --> 00:02:07.840 It really makes you wonder, with all our focus 00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:12.620 on milk checks, genomic rankings, are we kind 00:02:12.620 --> 00:02:16.000 of painting ourselves into a genetic corner without 00:02:16.000 --> 00:02:18.560 even realizing it? That's the million -dollar 00:02:18.560 --> 00:02:20.439 question, isn't it? And it's one that, frankly, 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:22.860 should be keeping all of us in the industry up 00:02:22.860 --> 00:02:24.740 at night. We've been digging through the numbers 00:02:24.740 --> 00:02:27.030 here at the Bullvine. You know, industry reports, 00:02:27.150 --> 00:02:29.669 stacks of genomic evaluations, the kind of stuff 00:02:29.669 --> 00:02:31.669 that can make your head spin, really. And for 00:02:31.669 --> 00:02:34.030 you listening, you seasoned dairy folks, we know 00:02:34.030 --> 00:02:36.530 you speak the language of genetics. But today 00:02:36.530 --> 00:02:39.189 we're not just glancing at the metrics. We're 00:02:39.189 --> 00:02:42.370 diving deep into the storm brewing beneath the 00:02:42.370 --> 00:02:45.349 surface of Holstein inbreeding. Absolutely. Our 00:02:45.349 --> 00:02:49.090 mission today is pretty laser focused. Let's 00:02:49.090 --> 00:02:51.770 really dissect this escalating inbreeding trend 00:02:51.770 --> 00:02:55.150 in Holsteins using the facts and figures we actually 00:02:55.150 --> 00:02:58.430 have. What does this truly mean for the genetic 00:02:58.430 --> 00:03:00.530 decisions you're making right now on your farm? 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:04.719 And what's the long -term outlook for the breed 00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:06.620 that pays the bills? And it's a bit of an elephant 00:03:06.620 --> 00:03:08.960 in the parlor, you could say, because we've seen 00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:11.819 such incredible genetic leaps in Holsteins, especially 00:03:11.819 --> 00:03:14.780 in milk yield. Genomic selection has been a game 00:03:14.780 --> 00:03:16.879 changer, no doubt about it. Oh, absolutely. It's 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:19.099 easy to get caught up celebrating those record 00:03:19.099 --> 00:03:21.520 -breaking production averages. Tell me about 00:03:21.520 --> 00:03:24.020 it. Bigger tanks, better components. That's kind 00:03:24.020 --> 00:03:25.960 of been the mantra for years, hasn't it? It has. 00:03:26.219 --> 00:03:29.159 But here's where things get. Well, let's just 00:03:29.159 --> 00:03:32.639 say. a bit less celebratory. While we've been 00:03:32.639 --> 00:03:35.379 so fixated on those impressive gains, there's 00:03:35.379 --> 00:03:37.939 been this parallel and frankly pretty alarming 00:03:37.939 --> 00:03:41.039 surge in inbreeding. Right. Right within the, 00:03:41.039 --> 00:03:43.039 you know, the creme de la creme of the Holstein 00:03:43.039 --> 00:03:45.780 population. It feels a bit like winning the sprint 00:03:45.780 --> 00:03:47.479 but then tripping right before the finish line 00:03:47.479 --> 00:03:51.599 of sustainability. And... It's not exactly front 00:03:51.599 --> 00:03:53.620 page news, is it? I mean, you might hear whispers 00:03:53.620 --> 00:03:56.159 about it maybe at a conference or see a footnote 00:03:56.159 --> 00:03:58.500 in some research paper. Right. But it's certainly 00:03:58.500 --> 00:04:01.620 not the headlines screaming from the AI stud 00:04:01.620 --> 00:04:03.979 books you get in the mail. So it's completely 00:04:03.979 --> 00:04:06.039 understandable if it hasn't been a major point 00:04:06.039 --> 00:04:08.719 of discussion around the kitchen table or in 00:04:08.719 --> 00:04:12.020 the barn office. Which brings us to. What we're 00:04:12.020 --> 00:04:13.960 kind of calling the inbreeding head scratcher. 00:04:14.020 --> 00:04:16.879 Yeah. Think back for a second. When was the last 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:20.180 time you really scrutinized the inbreeding metrics 00:04:20.180 --> 00:04:23.500 on your sire summaries? Yeah. Most of us probably, 00:04:23.519 --> 00:04:26.399 you give a quick glance at the expected future 00:04:26.399 --> 00:04:28.519 inbreeding, the EFI, right? Yeah. When you're 00:04:28.519 --> 00:04:30.459 sorting through those glossy catalogs, it's right 00:04:30.459 --> 00:04:32.980 there. It is. And that's the go -to number for 00:04:32.980 --> 00:04:35.620 most producers for sure. Yeah. But here's where 00:04:35.620 --> 00:04:38.459 the picture gets a little, well. fizzy. EFI, 00:04:38.680 --> 00:04:41.019 while it has its place, it just doesn't tell 00:04:41.019 --> 00:04:42.620 the whole story of what's actually happening 00:04:42.620 --> 00:04:45.579 at the DNA level. We're seeing this widening 00:04:45.579 --> 00:04:48.060 gap between the genomic inbreeding levels in 00:04:48.060 --> 00:04:51.680 Holstein bulls, which had climbed to a pretty... 00:04:51.689 --> 00:04:55.209 worrying 15 .2 % by 2020. And at the same time, 00:04:55.209 --> 00:04:58.589 that dramatic 61 % nosedive in the number of 00:04:58.589 --> 00:05:01.490 active AI sires. 61%. Yeah, during that same 00:05:01.490 --> 00:05:03.750 period. That's a shrinking talent pool where, 00:05:03.829 --> 00:05:06.089 you know, almost everyone's related. It's kind 00:05:06.089 --> 00:05:08.490 of a recipe for genetic stagnation, if you ask 00:05:08.490 --> 00:05:10.670 me. It's sort of like comparing the nutritionist's 00:05:10.670 --> 00:05:13.819 perfect TMR formulation on paper. To what the 00:05:13.819 --> 00:05:15.740 cows actually decide to pick and choose at the 00:05:15.740 --> 00:05:17.819 feed bunk, right? One is the ideal scenario. 00:05:17.860 --> 00:05:20.879 The other is the gritty reality of what's being 00:05:20.879 --> 00:05:23.980 consumed. Exactly. EFI is that projection, the 00:05:23.980 --> 00:05:26.339 relationship of some future heifers, but genomic 00:05:26.339 --> 00:05:29.740 inbreeding, or FROH, that shows us the actual 00:05:29.740 --> 00:05:32.079 percentage of an animal's genes where both copies 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:34.459 are identical. Right. It's a much more direct 00:05:34.459 --> 00:05:37.379 sort of no -nonsense measure of how closely related 00:05:37.379 --> 00:05:39.740 an animal is to itself, genetically speaking. 00:05:39.860 --> 00:05:42.600 Okay, so FROH is the actual genetic closeness. 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:45.759 Precisely. EFI is essentially an estimate how 00:05:45.759 --> 00:05:48.480 related is this bull to the average genetics 00:05:48.480 --> 00:05:52.540 of heifers born around, say, 2020. But genomic 00:05:52.540 --> 00:05:55.540 inbreeding, FROH, gets right down to the nitty 00:05:55.540 --> 00:05:58.220 gritty of an individual's DNA. It reveals the 00:05:58.220 --> 00:06:00.439 proportion of their genome where both alleles 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:03.420 at a specific spot are the same. And this distinction, 00:06:03.560 --> 00:06:05.939 I mean, it's absolutely critical when you're 00:06:05.939 --> 00:06:07.959 making those mating decisions that will shape 00:06:07.959 --> 00:06:10.959 your herd for years. And here's a twist in the 00:06:10.959 --> 00:06:13.689 tale that's frankly a bit unsettling. The very 00:06:13.689 --> 00:06:16.829 benchmark we use to calculate EFI, the genetics 00:06:16.829 --> 00:06:19.430 of those heifers born around 2020, that benchmark 00:06:19.430 --> 00:06:22.009 itself is becoming more inbred. Yeah, that's 00:06:22.009 --> 00:06:24.410 the kicker. Between 2015 and 2020, the average 00:06:24.410 --> 00:06:26.750 EFI of the Holstein -based population jumped 00:06:26.750 --> 00:06:30.649 from 7 .5 % up to 9 .4%. So our measuring stick 00:06:30.649 --> 00:06:33.069 for inbreeding is itself getting shorter. It's 00:06:33.069 --> 00:06:34.629 like trying to measure how high the water is 00:06:34.629 --> 00:06:36.449 rising in a bathtub that's already half full. 00:06:36.629 --> 00:06:38.569 Right. The numbers might not seem that dramatic 00:06:38.569 --> 00:06:40.329 until you realize the whole tub is just closer 00:06:40.329 --> 00:06:42.370 to overflowing. Okay, so the baseline is shifting. 00:06:42.779 --> 00:06:45.259 Exactly. It's like trying to gauge the depth 00:06:45.259 --> 00:06:47.500 of a lake when the lake bed itself is slowly 00:06:47.500 --> 00:06:50.720 rising. The numbers might look okay on the surface, 00:06:50.980 --> 00:06:52.899 but the underlying problem is actually getting 00:06:52.899 --> 00:06:55.839 deeper. Because that baseline population is more 00:06:55.839 --> 00:06:59.959 related now. A bull with a seemingly low EFI. 00:07:00.819 --> 00:07:03.680 Well, he could still be quite closely connected 00:07:03.680 --> 00:07:05.740 to a significant chunk of the elite population. 00:07:06.220 --> 00:07:08.689 Which... Totally deflates that common assumption, 00:07:08.889 --> 00:07:11.389 doesn't it? Hey, this bull has a low EFI. He 00:07:11.389 --> 00:07:13.730 must be a real outcross. Not necessarily. He 00:07:13.730 --> 00:07:15.769 might have a lower relationship to this increasingly 00:07:15.769 --> 00:07:18.970 inbred average, but still be, I don't know, a 00:07:18.970 --> 00:07:21.569 cousin twice removed to half the other high -ranking 00:07:21.569 --> 00:07:25.199 sires out there. Precisely. You could be using 00:07:25.199 --> 00:07:27.519 a bunch of these low EFI bulls thinking you're 00:07:27.519 --> 00:07:29.819 spreading the genetic risk. But in reality, you 00:07:29.819 --> 00:07:31.480 might just be doubling down on the same family 00:07:31.480 --> 00:07:33.680 tree without even realizing it. It gives you 00:07:33.680 --> 00:07:35.980 this false sense of security, this warm, fuzzy 00:07:35.980 --> 00:07:38.600 feeling of genetic diversity that just isn't 00:07:38.600 --> 00:07:40.600 actually there. And what's fascinating and maybe 00:07:40.600 --> 00:07:42.680 a little frustrating, too, is the role that those 00:07:42.680 --> 00:07:45.480 contract limitations play, you know, on the really 00:07:45.480 --> 00:07:48.180 hot new genomic foals. Oh, yeah, the exclusive 00:07:48.180 --> 00:07:51.319 ones. Right. When the absolute top of the heapsires 00:07:51.319 --> 00:07:54.220 are only available through specific, often restrictive 00:07:54.220 --> 00:07:57.019 programs, their genetics get concentrated. They 00:07:57.019 --> 00:07:59.519 go into a select group of elite females first. 00:07:59.899 --> 00:08:03.319 Then down the line, those same genes spread more 00:08:03.319 --> 00:08:05.720 widely, usually through their sons and grandsons. 00:08:05.779 --> 00:08:08.180 But by that point, the overall inbreeding level 00:08:08.180 --> 00:08:10.439 in that elite pool has likely ratcheted up another 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:14.139 notch. And the EFI. And the EFI. still anchored 00:08:14.139 --> 00:08:17.319 to that older, more inbred base population, it 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:20.339 just doesn't fully capture the intensified homozygosity, 00:08:20.360 --> 00:08:22.819 those identical gene pairs that's been created 00:08:22.819 --> 00:08:25.339 by these initially limited but ultimately very 00:08:25.339 --> 00:08:27.759 influential sires. Okay. Let's put some hard 00:08:27.759 --> 00:08:29.199 numbers on the table then and really drive this 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:32.159 home. Between 2010 and 2020, as we mentioned, 00:08:32.399 --> 00:08:35.899 the average genomic inbreeding, the FROH in Holstein 00:08:35.899 --> 00:08:40.809 bulls, skyrocketed from 5 .7 % to a whopping 00:08:40.809 --> 00:08:46.190 15 .2%. 15 .2? That's a staggering 168 % increase 00:08:46.190 --> 00:08:48.529 in just one decade. It's like going from a mild 00:08:48.529 --> 00:08:50.730 family gathering to a full -blown family reunion 00:08:50.730 --> 00:08:53.830 where everyone's wearing matching DNA. It's huge. 00:08:54.129 --> 00:08:57.090 And during that same 10 -year stretch, the number 00:08:57.090 --> 00:09:00.889 of active AI bulls in service, it... Absolutely 00:09:00.889 --> 00:09:04.769 tanked. Plummeted from a pretty robust 2 ,734. 00:09:05.190 --> 00:09:08.830 Wow. Down to just 1 ,079. Think about that. A 00:09:08.830 --> 00:09:11.889 61 % shrinking of the genetic toolbox we're all 00:09:11.889 --> 00:09:15.629 relying on. 61 % fewer options. It's like trying 00:09:15.629 --> 00:09:17.389 to build a house with only a hammer and maybe 00:09:17.389 --> 00:09:19.570 a screwdriver and half the nails are bent. And 00:09:19.570 --> 00:09:21.990 let's not forget that steady creep upwards in 00:09:21.990 --> 00:09:25.129 the EFI of the base population itself. That edged 00:09:25.129 --> 00:09:28.649 up from 7 .5 % to 9 .4 % during that same period. 00:09:28.789 --> 00:09:30.970 Right. That's a 20%. 25 % rise in the baseline. 00:09:31.149 --> 00:09:33.250 Right. So you might be sitting there thinking, 00:09:33.330 --> 00:09:35.769 okay, genomic selection has been fantastic for 00:09:35.769 --> 00:09:38.049 my herd. I've got higher production, better udders. 00:09:38.679 --> 00:09:40.840 Isn't this just the inevitable trade -off for 00:09:40.840 --> 00:09:42.720 all that progress? And it's a perfectly reasonable 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:45.200 question to ask. Genomic selection has handed 00:09:45.200 --> 00:09:48.019 us incredible precision and speed in identifying 00:09:48.019 --> 00:09:50.159 those genetically superior animals. There's no 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:52.200 argument there. None at all. But the unintended 00:09:52.200 --> 00:09:54.659 consequence, the sort of fly in the ointment, 00:09:54.799 --> 00:09:57.259 is that we're now increasingly selecting from 00:09:57.259 --> 00:10:00.580 a smaller and smaller circle of relatives. It's 00:10:00.580 --> 00:10:02.299 like trying to pick the tallest kid in the kindergarten 00:10:02.299 --> 00:10:04.480 class eventually. You know, they're all going 00:10:04.480 --> 00:10:05.899 to be about the same height. We're running out 00:10:05.899 --> 00:10:08.820 of variation at the top. Back in the good old 00:10:08.820 --> 00:10:10.960 days, pre -genomics really taking center stage, 00:10:11.240 --> 00:10:15.379 we'd see maybe over a thousand newly pedigree 00:10:15.379 --> 00:10:18.240 selected bulls enter AI service each year. Yeah, 00:10:18.259 --> 00:10:21.659 a lot more. Today, we're lucky if we see 75 to 00:10:21.659 --> 00:10:25.259 100 top genomic young bulls make the final cut. 00:10:25.460 --> 00:10:27.720 It's a trickle compared to before. And then you 00:10:27.720 --> 00:10:30.399 factor in that consolidation. Three major U .S. 00:10:30.419 --> 00:10:33.240 cooperatives now controlling over 80 % of the 00:10:33.240 --> 00:10:35.980 semen market. It's like we're all drawing water 00:10:35.980 --> 00:10:38.789 from the same... increasingly shallow well you 00:10:38.789 --> 00:10:40.629 gotta wonder right what happens when that well 00:10:40.629 --> 00:10:42.929 starts to run dry and this didn't just happen 00:10:42.929 --> 00:10:45.769 by accident it's not some random fluke of genetic 00:10:45.769 --> 00:10:48.549 fate there are several key factors all kind of 00:10:48.549 --> 00:10:51.110 converging here creating this perfect storm of 00:10:51.110 --> 00:10:53.970 a genetic bottleneck okay what's driving it well 00:10:53.970 --> 00:10:56.429 first the sheer efficiency of genomic selection 00:10:56.429 --> 00:10:59.090 itself is a major contributor because we can 00:10:59.090 --> 00:11:02.409 so accurately pinpoint the genetic outliers for 00:11:02.409 --> 00:11:04.809 the traits we're chasing, milk yield, components, 00:11:05.070 --> 00:11:08.389 and whatever it is, we naturally gravitate towards 00:11:08.389 --> 00:11:10.870 the same dominant families again and again. It's 00:11:10.870 --> 00:11:13.070 almost like using the exact same filter on your 00:11:13.070 --> 00:11:15.809 DHIA sheets every month. You keep picking the 00:11:15.809 --> 00:11:18.629 same kind of cows. Okay. And as these closely 00:11:18.629 --> 00:11:20.830 related animals rise to the top of the rankings, 00:11:20.990 --> 00:11:23.789 guess what? They get used more extensively, concentrating 00:11:23.789 --> 00:11:26.330 their genes even further in the population. Makes 00:11:26.330 --> 00:11:28.769 sense. But then you've got the whole drama of 00:11:28.769 --> 00:11:31.549 restricted access to the really elite genetics. 00:11:31.750 --> 00:11:34.950 Right. The by contract only bulls. Exactly. How 00:11:34.950 --> 00:11:38.529 often do you see a shiny new ultra high net merit 00:11:38.529 --> 00:11:41.169 bull with all sorts of asterisks and fine print 00:11:41.169 --> 00:11:43.330 about who can actually use him? These aren't 00:11:43.330 --> 00:11:45.690 just clever marketing strategies. They fundamentally 00:11:45.690 --> 00:11:48.269 alter the flow of genes through the population. 00:11:48.570 --> 00:11:51.549 How so? While these exclusive sires often get 00:11:51.549 --> 00:11:54.230 bred primarily to other top -tier cows, right, 00:11:54.350 --> 00:11:57.629 creating this sort of VIP genetic club, their 00:11:57.629 --> 00:12:00.070 offspring only gradually filter down to commercial 00:12:00.070 --> 00:12:03.149 herds, and by then, as we talked about, inbreeding 00:12:03.149 --> 00:12:05.289 has likely intensified within that elite core. 00:12:05.669 --> 00:12:08.269 Think about it. When was the last time you had 00:12:08.269 --> 00:12:10.909 completely unrestricted access to the absolute 00:12:10.909 --> 00:12:14.250 tippy -top genomic sires in the industry? Probably 00:12:14.250 --> 00:12:17.470 never. Right. It creates separate streams, delaying 00:12:17.470 --> 00:12:19.710 and concentrating things. Okay, so selection 00:12:19.710 --> 00:12:22.789 efficiency, restricted access. What else? The 00:12:22.789 --> 00:12:25.269 consolidation of the AI industry itself is another 00:12:25.269 --> 00:12:28.299 significant piece of this puzzle. Cast your mind 00:12:28.299 --> 00:12:31.840 back maybe 20, 30 years. There were numerous 00:12:31.840 --> 00:12:35.519 fiercely independent AI organizations. Each had 00:12:35.519 --> 00:12:37.639 their own unique breeding philosophies, different 00:12:37.639 --> 00:12:39.799 bull lineups. Variety. Definitely more variety. 00:12:40.059 --> 00:12:42.059 Today, we have a much smaller number of major 00:12:42.059 --> 00:12:44.460 players, and often they're all making selection 00:12:44.460 --> 00:12:47.360 decisions based on very similar economic indexes, 00:12:47.360 --> 00:12:50.340 NM more, TPI, JPI. We're all chasing the same 00:12:50.340 --> 00:12:52.899 numbers. Pretty much. Which leads to a much more 00:12:52.899 --> 00:12:55.539 homogenous set of genetic goals, and consequently, 00:12:55.679 --> 00:12:58.279 a more uniform selection. of the bulls that meet 00:12:58.279 --> 00:13:00.580 those criteria it's like everyone's trying to 00:13:00.580 --> 00:13:03.419 bake the exact same cake using the same limited 00:13:03.419 --> 00:13:05.840 set of ingredients got it and one more big one 00:13:05.840 --> 00:13:10.080 yes and we absolutely can't ignore the uh the 00:13:10.080 --> 00:13:13.279 elephant in the room the massive surge in beef 00:13:13.279 --> 00:13:15.820 on dairy breeding huge numbers there nearly eight 00:13:15.820 --> 00:13:19.120 million units of beef semen used in dairy herds 00:13:19.120 --> 00:13:21.960 last year That's a fact. And what it means is 00:13:21.960 --> 00:13:24.799 a significantly smaller proportion of dairy females 00:13:24.799 --> 00:13:27.240 are actually contributing to the next generation 00:13:27.240 --> 00:13:29.919 of purebred Holsteins. Fewer replacements being 00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:32.240 made. Exactly. This further shrinks the dairy 00:13:32.240 --> 00:13:34.639 gene pool, putting even more intense selection 00:13:34.639 --> 00:13:37.940 pressure on a smaller number of elite cows bred 00:13:37.940 --> 00:13:40.759 to those same few elite bulls. It's like deciding 00:13:40.759 --> 00:13:43.159 to only keep a handful of your very best heifers 00:13:43.159 --> 00:13:46.080 as replacements. The selection just becomes incredibly 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:48.419 concentrated. Okay, so we see how it's happening. 00:13:48.500 --> 00:13:51.090 But let's talk impact. This isn't just some abstract 00:13:51.090 --> 00:13:53.950 discussion for geneticists. Not at all. This 00:13:53.950 --> 00:13:56.909 increasing level of inbreeding has very real, 00:13:56.990 --> 00:14:00.610 tangible consequences for the profitability and 00:14:00.610 --> 00:14:02.289 the day -to -day management of your dairy farm. 00:14:02.570 --> 00:14:04.789 Absolutely. The data is pretty clear on this. 00:14:04.909 --> 00:14:07.830 As inbreeding levels climb, say from 10 % up 00:14:07.830 --> 00:14:10.669 towards 20%, the economic hit escalates dramatically. 00:14:11.190 --> 00:14:13.470 We're talking about a potential jump in lifetime 00:14:13.470 --> 00:14:18.230 profit loss per cow from around $450 to upwards 00:14:18.230 --> 00:14:21.570 of $3 ,700. Wow, that's a huge range. It is. 00:14:21.649 --> 00:14:23.549 And that comes hand in hand with significant 00:14:23.549 --> 00:14:25.690 drops in things like milk production and fertility. 00:14:25.929 --> 00:14:27.889 Those are real dollars and cents coming right 00:14:27.889 --> 00:14:29.590 out of your bottom line. Let's really break down 00:14:29.590 --> 00:14:32.580 those costs. For every single 1%, tick upwards 00:14:32.580 --> 00:14:36.059 in inbreeding, what does that actually cost you? 00:14:36.159 --> 00:14:38.399 Okay, so for each 1 % increase, we're looking 00:14:38.399 --> 00:14:40.879 at a lifetime milk production decrease somewhere 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:44.059 in the range of 177 to maybe 400 pounds. Per 00:14:44.059 --> 00:14:47.539 1%. Per 1%. First lactation fat and protein yields. 00:14:47.659 --> 00:14:50.039 They take a hit of about two pounds each. Productive 00:14:50.039 --> 00:14:52.320 life gets trimmed by roughly six days. Six days 00:14:52.320 --> 00:14:54.539 shorter life. Calving intervals stretch out by, 00:14:54.580 --> 00:14:57.559 say, 0 .2 to 0 .3 days longer. And net merit 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:00.419 takes a tumble of about $23 to $25. Individually, 00:15:00.419 --> 00:15:02.399 those might sound small. They might seem like 00:15:02.399 --> 00:15:05.240 small dents, yeah. But they compound over the 00:15:05.240 --> 00:15:08.159 entire lifespan of a cow. It's a lot like the 00:15:08.159 --> 00:15:11.360 insidious cumulative effects of subclinical ketosis 00:15:11.360 --> 00:15:13.919 or milk fever, you know, small hits that add 00:15:13.919 --> 00:15:16.100 up big time. Right, the death by a thousand cuts 00:15:16.100 --> 00:15:19.139 scenario. Exactly. Think about a cow with, say, 00:15:19.159 --> 00:15:22.279 15 % inbreeding, which unfortunately is becoming 00:15:22.279 --> 00:15:24.659 more and more common in some elite segments. 00:15:24.779 --> 00:15:27.919 And 15 % is high. It is. Compared to a cow with 00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:31.759 just 5 % inbreeding, that 15 % cow could easily 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:34.940 produce over 1 ,000, maybe 1 ,500 pounds less 00:15:34.940 --> 00:15:37.649 milk in her lifetime. Her calving intervals could 00:15:37.649 --> 00:15:39.809 be five to eight days longer on average. And 00:15:39.809 --> 00:15:41.690 ultimately, she could cost you anywhere from 00:15:41.690 --> 00:15:44.549 $1 ,000 to nearly $2 ,000 in lost profit over 00:15:44.549 --> 00:15:46.789 her productive years. Those are numbers that 00:15:46.789 --> 00:15:48.629 should make any dairy farmer sit up and take 00:15:48.629 --> 00:15:51.309 notice. That's serious money. Definitely. And 00:15:51.309 --> 00:15:53.029 it's not just about the obvious stuff like milk 00:15:53.029 --> 00:15:54.870 and making babies, is it? Yeah. There's also 00:15:54.870 --> 00:15:57.149 this growing, although maybe not yet rock -solid 00:15:57.149 --> 00:16:00.350 proven, evidence linking increasing inbreeding 00:16:00.350 --> 00:16:03.889 to some less desirable shifts in linear -type 00:16:03.889 --> 00:16:05.720 traits, the things we look at. That's right. 00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:08.019 We're starting to see indications, maybe lower 00:16:08.019 --> 00:16:11.080 strength scores, shallower body depth, potentially 00:16:11.080 --> 00:16:13.600 higher pin placement, and some of these more 00:16:13.600 --> 00:16:16.960 intensely inbred bloodlines. The research is 00:16:16.960 --> 00:16:19.720 ongoing, but the signals are there. And what's 00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:21.559 particularly interesting is how these potential 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:25.100 type changes might sort of intersect with... 00:16:25.279 --> 00:16:28.539 the recent tweaks to our selection indexes, like 00:16:28.539 --> 00:16:31.059 the CDCB's net merit formula. Right, the April 00:16:31.059 --> 00:16:33.440 2025 update. Yeah, it put a greater emphasis 00:16:33.440 --> 00:16:36.159 on smaller stature cattle with more focus on 00:16:36.159 --> 00:16:39.360 dairy form while actually penalizing larger stature. 00:16:39.519 --> 00:16:42.080 Correct. So we have to ask ourselves some tough 00:16:42.080 --> 00:16:44.159 questions here, don't we? Are we inadvertently 00:16:44.159 --> 00:16:46.720 selecting for a cow that looks fantastic on paper, 00:16:46.860 --> 00:16:49.159 meets all the index criteria, but maybe lacks 00:16:49.159 --> 00:16:51.820 the physical robustness, the strength to really 00:16:51.820 --> 00:16:54.340 thrive and hold up under the pressures of a modern 00:16:54.340 --> 00:16:56.539 dairy? It's a valid concern. And what happens 00:16:56.539 --> 00:16:59.639 if we face a major disease outbreak, something 00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:02.320 new, something unexpected, that happens to target 00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:05.400 a specific genetic pathway that we've maybe inadvertently 00:17:05.400 --> 00:17:07.359 narrowed down through this intense selection? 00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.859 Are we creating a super optimized herd for today's 00:17:10.859 --> 00:17:12.980 metrics, but one that's incredibly vulnerable 00:17:12.980 --> 00:17:15.259 to tomorrow's challenges? That's the risk. Is 00:17:15.259 --> 00:17:18.140 this really the hardy, resilient dairy cow we 00:17:18.140 --> 00:17:20.119 envision for the future of our farms? Because 00:17:20.119 --> 00:17:22.920 that shrinking genetic base, it really limits 00:17:22.920 --> 00:17:25.980 our options if we suddenly need to make a significant 00:17:25.980 --> 00:17:28.579 course correction down the road. We lose that 00:17:28.579 --> 00:17:31.160 flexibility. So if we don't change course, if 00:17:31.160 --> 00:17:34.660 we just keep going like this. Where are we likely 00:17:34.660 --> 00:17:36.380 to end up? What do the projections look like? 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:39.220 Well, if current inbreeding trends persist at 00:17:39.220 --> 00:17:41.039 their present rate, which is somewhere between, 00:17:41.119 --> 00:17:42.980 say, a quarter and almost half a percent increase 00:17:42.980 --> 00:17:46.079 each year, we could realistically see the average 00:17:46.079 --> 00:17:50.079 genomic inbreeding, the FROH, in elite Holstein 00:17:50.079 --> 00:17:53.339 bulls soaring to between 18 and 22 percent by 00:17:53.339 --> 00:17:56.079 the year 2030. 18 to 22 percent average. That's 00:17:56.079 --> 00:17:58.940 less than six years away. It's not science fiction. 00:17:59.039 --> 00:18:02.880 It's a projection. based on current trends. And 00:18:02.880 --> 00:18:05.779 geneticists are sounding the alarm, warning that 00:18:05.779 --> 00:18:08.059 if the effective population size, basically, 00:18:08.299 --> 00:18:11.220 a measure of breeding diversity dips below 50, 00:18:11.500 --> 00:18:14.799 we're entering a real danger zone in terms of 00:18:14.799 --> 00:18:17.700 the breed's long -term ability to adapt and thrive. 00:18:18.059 --> 00:18:20.119 Like having a company with only a handful of 00:18:20.119 --> 00:18:23.059 key employees. Exactly. If one or two get sick 00:18:23.059 --> 00:18:25.599 or leave, the whole operation is suddenly in 00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:28.559 trouble. What are the specific downsides, the 00:18:28.559 --> 00:18:31.829 big risks? of this intensifying genetic concentration? 00:18:32.190 --> 00:18:34.869 Well, there's significant and multifaceted. We've 00:18:34.869 --> 00:18:36.710 already touched on the heightened risk of emerging 00:18:36.710 --> 00:18:39.089 recessive disorders. We've done a great job identifying 00:18:39.089 --> 00:18:41.849 and managing the known ones, right? HH1 through 00:18:41.849 --> 00:18:45.690 6, CVM, BLAD. But as inbreeding continues its 00:18:45.690 --> 00:18:48.069 upward march, the probability of seeing new, 00:18:48.190 --> 00:18:50.609 currently unidentified harmful recessive genes 00:18:50.609 --> 00:18:53.569 expressing themselves just skyrockets because 00:18:53.569 --> 00:18:55.329 you're increasing the chance of getting two bad 00:18:55.329 --> 00:18:57.269 copies together. It's like playing genetic Russian 00:18:57.269 --> 00:18:59.269 roulette, and the chamber with the bullet keeps 00:18:59.269 --> 00:19:01.470 getting closer and closer. Okay, so more hidden 00:19:01.470 --> 00:19:03.769 genetic problems potentially popping up. What 00:19:03.769 --> 00:19:06.650 else? A constricted genetic foundation also means 00:19:06.650 --> 00:19:08.910 a diminished capacity for genetic resilience. 00:19:10.009 --> 00:19:12.910 The breed just becomes less equipped to adapt 00:19:12.910 --> 00:19:17.000 to new hurdles. Like what? a novel disease sweeping 00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:19.839 through the country or shifts in climate affecting 00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:22.599 things like heat tolerance or feed availability 00:19:22.599 --> 00:19:25.500 or even evolving consumer preferences that might 00:19:25.500 --> 00:19:27.720 demand different milk components or production 00:19:27.720 --> 00:19:31.619 systems down the line are we inadvertently pruning 00:19:31.619 --> 00:19:35.079 away the very genes that could be essential for 00:19:35.079 --> 00:19:37.400 the breed's survival and success in the years 00:19:37.400 --> 00:19:39.960 to come genes for things we don't even know we'll 00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:42.970 need yet and eventually Doesn't progress just 00:19:42.970 --> 00:19:45.450 slow down? Eventually, yes. You run headfirst 00:19:45.450 --> 00:19:47.549 into the law of diminishing returns when it comes 00:19:47.549 --> 00:19:49.529 to genetic progress. There's a theoretical limit, 00:19:49.650 --> 00:19:51.710 sometimes called the genetic ceiling, where you've 00:19:51.710 --> 00:19:54.589 essentially squeezed out most of the available 00:19:54.589 --> 00:19:57.049 useful genetic variation for the traits you're 00:19:57.049 --> 00:19:59.529 selecting for. And further improvements become 00:19:59.529 --> 00:20:02.740 incredibly slow. maybe even impossible. It's 00:20:02.740 --> 00:20:04.500 a bit of a bitter irony, isn't it? That the very 00:20:04.500 --> 00:20:07.200 tools like genomics that have propelled our genetic 00:20:07.200 --> 00:20:10.039 gains so rapidly could ultimately become the 00:20:10.039 --> 00:20:12.279 handcuffs that limit future progress. And the 00:20:12.279 --> 00:20:14.759 economic pain just keeps compounding as inbreeding 00:20:14.759 --> 00:20:16.799 goes up. Oh, absolutely. We talked about the 00:20:16.799 --> 00:20:19.680 cost per 1%. If you look at cumulative levels 00:20:19.680 --> 00:20:21.859 at a 10 % inbreeding level, maybe you're looking 00:20:21.859 --> 00:20:26.380 at $230 to $450 in lost lifetime profit per cow. 00:20:26.779 --> 00:20:29.940 crank that up to 15%, and those potential losses 00:20:29.940 --> 00:20:33.720 jump to over $1 ,000, maybe nearly $1 ,900. Okay. 00:20:33.900 --> 00:20:36.319 And if we were to hit an average of 20 % in breeding, 00:20:36.619 --> 00:20:39.259 we could be staring down lifetime profit reductions 00:20:39.259 --> 00:20:42.839 of $2 ,300 to almost $3 ,800 per cow. Per cow? 00:20:43.039 --> 00:20:44.759 Per cow. These aren't abstract numbers. These 00:20:44.759 --> 00:20:46.480 are real dollars potentially disappearing from 00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:48.740 your farm's profitability year after year. Okay, 00:20:48.759 --> 00:20:50.940 that's pretty sobering stuff. But here's the 00:20:50.940 --> 00:20:53.599 good news, right? And it's crucial that you listening 00:20:53.599 --> 00:20:56.480 understand this. Even with these concerning trends 00:20:56.480 --> 00:21:00.079 at the industry level, you, as an individual 00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:03.460 dairy producer, you are not powerless. There 00:21:03.460 --> 00:21:06.220 are concrete, practical steps you can start taking 00:21:06.220 --> 00:21:09.920 today, right now, to manage inbreeding within 00:21:09.920 --> 00:21:12.319 your own breeding program. Absolutely. You can 00:21:12.319 --> 00:21:14.839 contribute to a more robust and sustainable future 00:21:14.839 --> 00:21:17.420 for the Holstein breed. You're not just a passenger 00:21:17.420 --> 00:21:20.230 on this genetic train. You can actually... grab 00:21:20.230 --> 00:21:23.349 some of the controls. Exactly. So we've put together 00:21:23.349 --> 00:21:26.230 a straightforward action checklist, five key 00:21:26.230 --> 00:21:28.630 things you can do right now to start getting 00:21:28.630 --> 00:21:31.890 a handle on inbreeding in your herd. Think of 00:21:31.890 --> 00:21:34.349 it as your genetic emergency break, maybe. Good 00:21:34.349 --> 00:21:37.150 analogy. Okay, what's number one? First and foremost, 00:21:37.349 --> 00:21:40.680 demand genomic inbreeding information. specifically 00:21:40.680 --> 00:21:43.400 that FROH value we talked about. Get it from 00:21:43.400 --> 00:21:45.220 your genetic service providers. Don't just settle 00:21:45.220 --> 00:21:47.460 for the EFI anymore. Right. Some of the more 00:21:47.460 --> 00:21:49.539 forward -thinking AI companies are already providing 00:21:49.539 --> 00:21:51.759 this, especially for bulls they market as outcross 00:21:51.759 --> 00:21:55.720 options. Act for it. Knowing the actual homozygosity 00:21:55.720 --> 00:21:57.960 levels in potential matings gives you a much 00:21:57.960 --> 00:22:01.160 clearer, much more accurate picture of the inbreeding 00:22:01.160 --> 00:22:03.140 risk you're actually taking. It's about seeing 00:22:03.140 --> 00:22:05.579 the whole iceberg, not just the tip. Okay, step 00:22:05.579 --> 00:22:08.230 number two. Seriously, consider implementing 00:22:08.230 --> 00:22:11.150 routine genomic audits of your replacement heifers. 00:22:11.349 --> 00:22:13.869 You're likely already doing genomic testing for 00:22:13.869 --> 00:22:16.089 selection purposes, right? Most are, yeah. Well, 00:22:16.170 --> 00:22:17.769 make sure you're specifically looking at the 00:22:17.769 --> 00:22:20.769 inbreeding percentages that come back. And pay 00:22:20.769 --> 00:22:23.750 close attention to those runs of homozygosity 00:22:23.750 --> 00:22:26.619 or ROH. Particularly the ones that are longer 00:22:26.619 --> 00:22:29.019 than, say, four megabases. Probably the long 00:22:29.019 --> 00:22:31.740 ones. Because these longer stretches of identical 00:22:31.740 --> 00:22:35.460 DNA are strong indicators of more recent inbreeding. 00:22:35.539 --> 00:22:38.000 And that carries a higher risk of expressing 00:22:38.000 --> 00:22:41.200 those nasty, hidden recessive genes. This helps 00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:43.339 you pinpoint inbreeding hotspots within your 00:22:43.339 --> 00:22:45.720 own herd in a way that just looking at pedigrees 00:22:45.720 --> 00:22:48.240 alone simply can't. It's like moving from just 00:22:48.240 --> 00:22:51.420 looking at bulb tank SCC to doing individual 00:22:51.420 --> 00:22:54.039 cow cultures to find the actual source of the 00:22:54.039 --> 00:22:56.140 mass. status problem perfect analogy it's more 00:22:56.140 --> 00:22:58.160 precise got it number three in the checklist 00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:01.599 make it a firm rule a policy for your farm set 00:23:01.599 --> 00:23:04.180 a maximum acceptable inbreeding increase for 00:23:04.180 --> 00:23:06.519 each generation in your herd what's a good target 00:23:06.519 --> 00:23:09.480 a good target to aim for is less than a 0 .1 00:23:09.480 --> 00:23:12.029 percent increase per mating or per generation 00:23:12.029 --> 00:23:14.750 on average. And definitely take advantage of 00:23:14.750 --> 00:23:16.769 the sophisticated mating software that's readily 00:23:16.769 --> 00:23:19.910 available now. Like SMS, Optimal Genetic Pathways. 00:23:20.029 --> 00:23:23.529 Exactly. Programs like SMS, Optimal Genetic Pathways, 00:23:23.630 --> 00:23:26.490 Genetic Audit. These are powerful tools. They 00:23:26.490 --> 00:23:28.130 can help you balance your pursuit of genetic 00:23:28.130 --> 00:23:31.210 game, getting better cows, with effective inbreeding 00:23:31.210 --> 00:23:33.569 control. And don't forget about handy resources 00:23:33.569 --> 00:23:36.690 like MateCell or the CDCB's own inbreeding calculator. 00:23:37.190 --> 00:23:40.369 Use the tools. They can help identify matings 00:23:40.369 --> 00:23:42.690 that minimize inbreeding while still moving your 00:23:42.690 --> 00:23:44.589 herd forward genetically. Okay, use the tech. 00:23:44.750 --> 00:23:47.309 Number four. Number four is to be strategic about 00:23:47.309 --> 00:23:49.869 incorporating true outcross sires into your breeding 00:23:49.869 --> 00:23:52.430 program. And I mean intentionally dedicating 00:23:52.430 --> 00:23:54.210 a significant portion of your matings, maybe 00:23:54.210 --> 00:23:57.049 15 to 20 percent. Okay. To bulls that are genuinely 00:23:57.049 --> 00:23:59.349 genetically less related to your current herd, 00:23:59.410 --> 00:24:02.490 don't just assume low EFI means outcross. Dig 00:24:02.490 --> 00:24:05.329 deeper. Maybe even look beyond holstein. Absolutely. 00:24:05.529 --> 00:24:07.930 Explore structured crossbreeding systems like 00:24:07.930 --> 00:24:10.769 ProCross. That brings in Montbelliard and Viking 00:24:10.769 --> 00:24:13.710 Red genetics into the Holstein mix. The research 00:24:13.710 --> 00:24:16.430 consistently shows these systems not only maintain 00:24:16.430 --> 00:24:19.390 high levels of productivity, but also significantly 00:24:19.390 --> 00:24:22.369 boost fertility, reduce calving difficulties, 00:24:22.529 --> 00:24:26.160 and importantly here, completely eliminate inbreeding 00:24:26.160 --> 00:24:28.759 concerns in those crossbred offspring. Think 00:24:28.759 --> 00:24:30.980 of it like diversifying your investment portfolio, 00:24:31.180 --> 00:24:33.519 maybe. Exactly. Or like diversifying your feed 00:24:33.519 --> 00:24:36.299 inventory. It's just a smart way to manage risk. 00:24:36.579 --> 00:24:39.259 Okay. And the last one, number five. Finally, 00:24:39.299 --> 00:24:42.559 step number five. Just be vigilant. Monitor the 00:24:42.559 --> 00:24:44.819 linear type traits within your herd for any subtle 00:24:44.819 --> 00:24:47.140 signs of declining robustness. Pay attention 00:24:47.140 --> 00:24:49.019 to the cows themselves. Right. While the direct 00:24:49.019 --> 00:24:50.960 link, as we said, is still being fully investigated, 00:24:51.259 --> 00:24:53.700 keep an eye out for trends. Things like decreasing 00:24:53.700 --> 00:24:56.380 strength scores or shallower body depth. These 00:24:56.380 --> 00:24:58.500 could be early indicators, sort of canaries in 00:24:58.500 --> 00:25:00.779 the coal mine, signaling increasing inbreeding 00:25:00.779 --> 00:25:02.980 pressure within your specific herd. Okay, so 00:25:02.980 --> 00:25:06.240 that's five concrete actions individual producers 00:25:06.240 --> 00:25:09.619 can take. But individual action, as crucial as 00:25:09.619 --> 00:25:12.339 it is, it can only take us so far, right? That's 00:25:12.339 --> 00:25:15.319 absolutely right. The entire dairy genetics industry 00:25:15.319 --> 00:25:18.140 really has a shared responsibility here. We need 00:25:18.140 --> 00:25:20.599 to confront this issue head on and work together 00:25:20.599 --> 00:25:23.279 towards broader solutions. So what needs to happen 00:25:23.279 --> 00:25:25.660 at that industry level? Well, for starters, organizations 00:25:25.660 --> 00:25:28.900 like the CDCB, the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding, 00:25:29.019 --> 00:25:31.019 they should really make it standard practice 00:25:31.019 --> 00:25:34.259 to report genomic inbreeding, that F -R -O -H 00:25:34.259 --> 00:25:37.339 value, right alongside the traditional EFI in 00:25:37.339 --> 00:25:39.859 all genetic evaluations. More transparent. Much 00:25:39.859 --> 00:25:42.740 more transparency. This would give you, the producer, 00:25:43.019 --> 00:25:45.579 a much more complete and accurate picture of 00:25:45.579 --> 00:25:47.440 the genetic relationships you're dealing with. 00:25:47.690 --> 00:25:50.349 They could even consider incorporating inbreeding 00:25:50.349 --> 00:25:52.990 taps directly into the selection indices, like 00:25:52.990 --> 00:25:56.250 NM -more, to actively disincentivize excessive 00:25:56.250 --> 00:25:58.369 homozygosity. Make it part of the calculation. 00:25:58.710 --> 00:26:01.049 Exactly. Greater transparency in these evaluations 00:26:01.049 --> 00:26:04.349 is just essential. What about the AI studs? We 00:26:04.349 --> 00:26:07.690 also need the AI studs to make genetic diversity 00:26:07.690 --> 00:26:10.569 a genuine priority, not just a footnote. They 00:26:10.569 --> 00:26:13.369 should really aim to maintain a significant portion 00:26:13.369 --> 00:26:16.289 of their bull catalogs, maybe that same 15 to 00:26:16.289 --> 00:26:19.230 20 % figure we mentioned for farms, with bulls 00:26:19.230 --> 00:26:22.190 that exhibit less than, say, 8 % genomic inbreeding 00:26:22.190 --> 00:26:25.190 and demonstrate low kinship, low relationship 00:26:25.190 --> 00:26:28.950 to the current top 100 sires. Ensure real outcrosses 00:26:28.950 --> 00:26:31.430 are available. Right. Ensure that readily accessible 00:26:31.430 --> 00:26:34.680 true outcross options are available. to all breeders, 00:26:34.700 --> 00:26:36.940 not just those with the resources or connections 00:26:36.940 --> 00:26:39.619 to hunt down niche genetics, we need to start 00:26:39.619 --> 00:26:42.319 asking, why isn't this level of commitment to 00:26:42.319 --> 00:26:44.420 diversity already the norm? Why don't we demand 00:26:44.420 --> 00:26:46.799 this level of transparency and variety? Good 00:26:46.799 --> 00:26:49.339 question. And the breed associations? They have 00:26:49.339 --> 00:26:51.940 a vital role too, like Holstein Association USA. 00:26:52.380 --> 00:26:55.599 They need to provide clear, transparent reporting 00:26:55.599 --> 00:26:58.119 on the trends in genomic inbreeding, not just 00:26:58.119 --> 00:27:00.559 across the whole breed, but specifically within 00:27:00.559 --> 00:27:02.420 that elite breeding nucleus, you know, where 00:27:02.420 --> 00:27:05.109 the next generation of AI sires actually originates. 00:27:05.109 --> 00:27:07.869 Where the decisions really cascade from. Precisely. 00:27:07.910 --> 00:27:10.730 This data needs to be publicly available, easy 00:27:10.730 --> 00:27:13.650 to understand, and regularly updated so that 00:27:13.650 --> 00:27:15.890 farmers can see the bigger picture and hold the 00:27:15.890 --> 00:27:18.089 industry accountable. And research, where should 00:27:18.089 --> 00:27:21.269 that focus? Universities and the USDA AGL need 00:27:21.269 --> 00:27:24.069 to step up and prioritize research that focuses 00:27:24.069 --> 00:27:27.289 on optimizing that balance, achieving rapid genetic 00:27:27.289 --> 00:27:30.210 gain while diligently preserving genetic diversity 00:27:30.210 --> 00:27:32.549 within the Holstein breed. Finding the sweet 00:27:32.549 --> 00:27:35.089 spot. Yes. This includes exploring the development 00:27:35.089 --> 00:27:37.990 of selection indices that explicitly place value 00:27:37.990 --> 00:27:40.670 on genetic uniqueness, maybe give points for 00:27:40.670 --> 00:27:43.190 being different rather than solely focusing on 00:27:43.190 --> 00:27:45.470 short -term production traits. We need to start 00:27:45.470 --> 00:27:47.309 thinking about the long -term value of diversity, 00:27:47.569 --> 00:27:49.990 not just next year's milk check. The current 00:27:49.990 --> 00:27:52.829 focus often feels too short -sighted. And finally, 00:27:52.890 --> 00:27:55.529 just getting the word out. Absolutely. Education 00:27:55.529 --> 00:27:58.710 is paramount. Extension services, industry organizations, 00:27:59.130 --> 00:28:01.549 they need to proactively develop and deliver 00:28:01.549 --> 00:28:04.259 educational programs. Explain the implications 00:28:04.259 --> 00:28:06.720 of increasing inbreeding clearly to dairy farmers. 00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:09.079 Provide practical, actionable guidance on how 00:28:09.079 --> 00:28:11.000 to manage it effectively on their own farms. 00:28:11.319 --> 00:28:13.980 Honestly, many producers may simply not be fully 00:28:13.980 --> 00:28:16.539 aware of the extent to which inbreeding has increased 00:28:16.539 --> 00:28:18.799 or the potential long -term consequences for 00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:21.220 their operations. We need to raise awareness. 00:28:21.460 --> 00:28:23.559 Okay, so the undeniable bottom line here is this. 00:28:23.950 --> 00:28:26.750 The Holstein breed really stands at a critical 00:28:26.750 --> 00:28:30.029 genetic crossroads, a crucial point. We've achieved 00:28:30.029 --> 00:28:32.069 remarkable strides in productivity, fantastic 00:28:32.069 --> 00:28:35.650 gains, but there's a very real risk that we've 00:28:35.650 --> 00:28:37.849 been borrowing against the future, genetically 00:28:37.849 --> 00:28:40.589 speaking, to finance those gains in the present. 00:28:40.710 --> 00:28:43.069 Well said. This narrowing genetic base, which 00:28:43.069 --> 00:28:45.430 is starkly evident in those soaring inbreeding 00:28:45.430 --> 00:28:48.049 coefficients and that shrinking pool of active 00:28:48.049 --> 00:28:51.440 sires, It genuinely threatens long -term sustainability 00:28:51.440 --> 00:28:54.200 and adaptability of the breed that underpins 00:28:54.200 --> 00:28:56.819 so much of our industry. And as one prominent 00:28:56.819 --> 00:28:59.700 dairy geneticist put it, in rather stark terms, 00:29:00.140 --> 00:29:03.240 we're mining genetic capital at a rate that far 00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:06.460 outstrips our efforts to replenish it. And he 00:29:06.460 --> 00:29:09.480 added, the inevitable bill will come due in the 00:29:09.480 --> 00:29:12.740 form of calves born with recessive genetic defects 00:29:12.740 --> 00:29:16.329 we can't even identify yet. That's a really sobering 00:29:16.329 --> 00:29:18.509 thought to chew on, isn't it? It really is. And 00:29:18.509 --> 00:29:20.950 this is the empowering part. You are listeners. 00:29:21.250 --> 00:29:24.069 You have the power to influence this trajectory. 00:29:24.269 --> 00:29:26.750 You do. Both through the individual breeding 00:29:26.750 --> 00:29:28.750 choices you make on your own farms day in and 00:29:28.750 --> 00:29:31.960 day out and by actively advocating. asking for 00:29:31.960 --> 00:29:34.640 greater transparency, demanding a stronger commitment 00:29:34.640 --> 00:29:37.380 to genetic diversity from the organizations that 00:29:37.380 --> 00:29:39.140 are supposed to serve our industry. Remember, 00:29:39.279 --> 00:29:41.099 the historical success of the Holstein breed 00:29:41.099 --> 00:29:43.599 wasn't just about milk. It was built on its remarkable 00:29:43.599 --> 00:29:46.440 adaptability. And that adaptability is fundamentally 00:29:46.440 --> 00:29:49.519 dependent on maintaining sufficient genetic variation 00:29:49.519 --> 00:29:52.579 for whatever the future may hold. We need that 00:29:52.579 --> 00:29:54.740 toolbox full. So let's leave you with a crucial 00:29:54.740 --> 00:29:58.039 question to really ponder as you make those next 00:29:58.039 --> 00:30:01.500 breeding decisions. Are you solely focused on 00:30:01.500 --> 00:30:03.900 maximizing production in the very next lactation? 00:30:04.480 --> 00:30:07.140 Or are you truly breeding for the long -term 00:30:07.140 --> 00:30:09.660 health, the resilience, the profitability of 00:30:09.660 --> 00:30:11.859 the next generation of your herd? It's kind of 00:30:11.859 --> 00:30:14.000 like that feed ration analogy again, isn't it? 00:30:14.019 --> 00:30:16.339 Carefully balancing for optimal immediate milk 00:30:16.339 --> 00:30:18.380 yield versus ensuring the long -term health, 00:30:18.539 --> 00:30:22.160 fertility, and longevity of your cows. Your genetic 00:30:22.160 --> 00:30:25.440 strategy needs that long -term horizon. It has 00:30:25.440 --> 00:30:27.940 to extend far beyond just the immediate results 00:30:27.940 --> 00:30:30.440 showing up on the next milk test. And the answer 00:30:30.440 --> 00:30:32.440 to that question, how you balance those two things, 00:30:32.539 --> 00:30:35.140 that will ultimately determine the future success 00:30:35.140 --> 00:30:37.400 of your farm and contribute to the future of 00:30:37.400 --> 00:30:39.779 the Holstein breed as a whole. The time for decisive 00:30:39.779 --> 00:30:42.359 action really is now. Start by digging deeper. 00:30:42.500 --> 00:30:44.839 Find out the actual inbreeding levels within 00:30:44.839 --> 00:30:47.450 your herd. Get that FROH data. Challenge your 00:30:47.450 --> 00:30:49.670 genetic providers to offer you bowls with verified 00:30:49.670 --> 00:30:52.930 low genomic inbreeding true outcrosses. Implement 00:30:52.930 --> 00:30:54.970 those strategic mating strategies we talked about, 00:30:55.049 --> 00:30:57.329 the ones that actively work to manage homozygosity. 00:30:57.430 --> 00:30:59.809 And perhaps most importantly, get actively involved 00:30:59.809 --> 00:31:02.509 in the broader industry conversation. Talk about 00:31:02.509 --> 00:31:04.490 the critical importance of genetic diversity 00:31:04.490 --> 00:31:07.210 at industry conferences, at breed association 00:31:07.210 --> 00:31:09.970 meetings, in your regular discussions with your 00:31:09.970 --> 00:31:13.240 AI representatives. Make your voice heard. Ask 00:31:13.240 --> 00:31:16.059 yourself, what is the single most impactful change 00:31:16.059 --> 00:31:17.779 you will make in your next genetic selection 00:31:17.779 --> 00:31:20.319 decision as a direct result of this discussion 00:31:20.319 --> 00:31:23.240 today? How will you consciously balance your 00:31:23.240 --> 00:31:25.859 breeding program's immediate economic needs with 00:31:25.859 --> 00:31:28.240 the absolute imperative of long -term genetic 00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:31.390 sustainability for this shared resource? The 00:31:31.390 --> 00:31:34.230 Holstein breed. What's the one concrete step 00:31:34.230 --> 00:31:36.230 you'll take? Because the moment for this vital 00:31:36.230 --> 00:31:38.789 conversation isn't somewhere down the road. It's 00:31:38.789 --> 00:31:40.990 right now, while we still have sufficient genetic 00:31:40.990 --> 00:31:43.970 diversity to actively preserve, we can't afford 00:31:43.970 --> 00:31:46.950 to wait. So to bring it all together, what we've 00:31:46.950 --> 00:31:49.349 uncovered today is a significant and maybe often 00:31:49.349 --> 00:31:52.410 overlooked trend. This silent but accelerating 00:31:52.410 --> 00:31:54.690 genetic squeeze happening within the Holstein 00:31:54.690 --> 00:31:57.240 breed. Inbreeding levels are climbing at a rate 00:31:57.240 --> 00:31:59.559 that far outpaces what traditional metrics like 00:31:59.559 --> 00:32:03.039 EFI alone might suggest. And this poses potentially 00:32:03.039 --> 00:32:05.779 serious long -term risks to your farm's profitability, 00:32:06.079 --> 00:32:09.220 yes, but also to the overall resilience of the 00:32:09.220 --> 00:32:11.380 breed we all depend on. And the key takeaway, 00:32:11.619 --> 00:32:14.039 if there's one thing to remember, it's crystal 00:32:14.039 --> 00:32:17.059 clear. Genomic inbreeding, that FROH number, 00:32:17.240 --> 00:32:19.519 it provides you with a much more accurate, much 00:32:19.519 --> 00:32:22.180 more insightful picture of the genetic relatedness 00:32:22.180 --> 00:32:25.349 you're dealing with than EFI alone. It really 00:32:25.349 --> 00:32:27.769 demands your closer attention when you're making 00:32:27.769 --> 00:32:30.109 those critical breeding decisions. And your role 00:32:30.109 --> 00:32:32.349 as a dairy producer is absolutely pivotal in 00:32:32.349 --> 00:32:34.710 this. By demanding greater transparency from 00:32:34.710 --> 00:32:37.150 the industry and by actively implementing proactive 00:32:37.150 --> 00:32:39.369 breeding strategies on your own farm, you have 00:32:39.369 --> 00:32:41.890 the power. You can help steer the future of the 00:32:41.890 --> 00:32:43.930 Holstein breed toward a path of greater long 00:32:43.930 --> 00:32:46.970 -term sustainability and resilience. So, as we 00:32:46.970 --> 00:32:49.430 all continue to strive for those ever -increasing 00:32:49.430 --> 00:32:52.029 production averages, which we need to do, let's 00:32:52.029 --> 00:32:54.920 leave you with this final perhaps slightly unsettling, 00:32:55.000 --> 00:32:58.500 thought to really chew on until next time. In 00:32:58.500 --> 00:33:00.359 our relentless pursuit of peak performance in 00:33:00.359 --> 00:33:02.859 the next lactation, are we inadvertently sacrificing 00:33:02.859 --> 00:33:06.000 the very bedrock of genetic diversity that underpins 00:33:06.000 --> 00:33:08.440 the long -term resilience and adaptability of 00:33:08.440 --> 00:33:11.079 this magnificent Holstein breed? Or maybe put 00:33:11.079 --> 00:33:14.559 another way, in our focused quest for the perfect 00:33:14.559 --> 00:33:16.859 genomic animal, the one that tops all the charts, 00:33:17.059 --> 00:33:19.700 have we inadvertently overlooked the inherent 00:33:19.700 --> 00:33:22.460 and maybe irreplaceable value of genetic variation 00:33:22.460 --> 00:33:25.950 itself? which in the end might just be the ultimate 00:33:25.950 --> 00:33:28.170 insurance policy for the future of our herds 00:33:28.170 --> 00:33:30.130 and our entire industry. Something to really 00:33:30.130 --> 00:33:31.910 sink your teeth into. We'll catch you on the 00:33:31.910 --> 00:33:54.400 next Deep Dive. already trust us to separate 00:33:54.400 --> 00:33:57.779 hype from hard facts. Thanks for joining us for 00:33:57.779 --> 00:34:00.259 this episode of the Bullvine Podcast. Remember, 00:34:00.539 --> 00:34:02.720 genetic progress shouldn't mean painting your 00:34:02.720 --> 00:34:06.059 herd into a corner. Breed smart, demand transparency, 00:34:06.440 --> 00:34:09.460 and keep fighting for dairy's future. Until next 00:34:09.460 --> 00:34:11.380 time, stay utterly relentless.