WEBVTT 00:00:10.600 --> 00:00:13.339 Welcome to the Deep Dive, your shortcut to understanding 00:00:13.339 --> 00:00:15.220 what's really happening in the dairy industry. 00:00:15.839 --> 00:00:18.879 Today we're pulling apart the top stories making 00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:22.039 waves right now, straight from the Bullvine Newsroom. 00:00:22.140 --> 00:00:24.100 That's right. We're looking at everything from... 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:28.199 keeping your herd healthy and productive to the 00:00:28.199 --> 00:00:31.039 big shifts in global markets and, well, what 00:00:31.039 --> 00:00:32.880 those trade headlines actually mean for your 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.460 farm. Yeah, there's a lot going on. So. Let's 00:00:36.460 --> 00:00:38.520 dive right in. It's a complex picture out there, 00:00:38.539 --> 00:00:41.280 no doubt. We're seeing a lot of interconnected 00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:43.759 issues that day producers are having to navigate 00:00:43.759 --> 00:00:46.079 all at once. Absolutely. And one area that's 00:00:46.079 --> 00:00:48.100 always front of mind is, you know, the health 00:00:48.100 --> 00:00:49.740 and well -being of your herd, because that really 00:00:49.740 --> 00:00:52.020 hits the bottom line. Our team at The Bullvine 00:00:52.020 --> 00:00:54.539 has been looking at how focusing on the fundamentals 00:00:54.539 --> 00:00:57.460 of utter health can have a surprisingly large 00:00:57.460 --> 00:01:00.229 impact on profitability. often through those 00:01:00.229 --> 00:01:02.170 consistent day -to -day actions. That's right. 00:01:02.270 --> 00:01:05.489 It's easy to overlook the cumulative costs of 00:01:05.489 --> 00:01:08.269 something like mastitis. USDA research tells 00:01:08.269 --> 00:01:10.909 us that each clinical case can cost anywhere 00:01:10.909 --> 00:01:14.670 from, what, $444 to $600? Yeah, quite a range. 00:01:14.909 --> 00:01:18.049 Now think about that across your entire herd. 00:01:18.439 --> 00:01:20.420 The reduced milk production. That's the big one. 00:01:20.459 --> 00:01:23.219 Maybe 80 % of the cost right there. Then you've 00:01:23.219 --> 00:01:26.000 got treatment expenses, cows that have to be 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:29.579 culled prematurely, and even lost premiums for 00:01:29.579 --> 00:01:31.939 milk quality. It all adds up. It really does. 00:01:32.260 --> 00:01:34.819 Globally, we're talking... billions of dollars 00:01:34.819 --> 00:01:38.359 in losses every year. So even preventing just 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:41.079 one or two cases, that can make a noticeable 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:43.579 difference to your farm's profitability. Billions. 00:01:43.579 --> 00:01:46.280 It's a staggering figure. Now, the National Mastitis 00:01:46.280 --> 00:01:48.659 Council's 10 -point plan, that's kind of the 00:01:48.659 --> 00:01:51.379 foundation here, isn't it? It is, yeah. A really 00:01:51.379 --> 00:01:53.659 solid framework. Looking at that, what are a 00:01:53.659 --> 00:01:55.659 couple of key areas that you feel are particularly 00:01:55.659 --> 00:01:58.680 relevant for producers to focus on right now? 00:01:58.980 --> 00:02:01.340 Well, two critical areas really stand out. The 00:02:01.340 --> 00:02:03.599 cow's environment, particularly the barn and 00:02:03.599 --> 00:02:06.560 the milking procedure itself. Okay. Starting 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:08.460 with the barn, University of Minnesota research 00:02:08.460 --> 00:02:10.919 has shown a clear link between the bacteria present 00:02:10.919 --> 00:02:13.419 in bedding and udder health. Makes sense. Cows 00:02:13.419 --> 00:02:15.580 spend a significant chunk of their day lying 00:02:15.580 --> 00:02:19.080 down 12 to 14 hours on average. So if that bedding 00:02:19.080 --> 00:02:22.199 isn't clean and, crucially, dry. Yeah, dry is 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:24.439 key. It can become a breeding ground for bacteria 00:02:24.439 --> 00:02:27.259 that directly challenge teat health. This is 00:02:27.259 --> 00:02:29.259 especially important for your transition cows. 00:02:29.539 --> 00:02:31.460 Right, when they're most vulnerable. Exactly. 00:02:32.280 --> 00:02:35.280 Recommendations include aiming for less than 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:38.680 100 % stall capacity, giving them room, and ensuring 00:02:38.680 --> 00:02:41.699 adequate feed bunk space, maybe around 30 inches 00:02:41.699 --> 00:02:44.639 per cow. Moisture in the bedding is a major risk 00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:47.520 factor to watch out for. Okay, so clean, dry, 00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:50.580 and not overcrowded. Seems fundamental. What 00:02:50.580 --> 00:02:52.259 about when the cows are actually being milked? 00:02:52.340 --> 00:02:55.620 Milking time is really where precision and consistency, 00:02:55.900 --> 00:02:58.219 well, they're key. It's a sequence of actions 00:02:58.219 --> 00:03:00.439 that, when done correctly every single time, 00:03:00.539 --> 00:03:02.919 significantly lowers the risk of new infections. 00:03:03.000 --> 00:03:05.639 Right. Keeping the cows calm is important. You 00:03:05.639 --> 00:03:07.680 know, stress can affect milk letdown. Forest 00:03:07.680 --> 00:03:10.180 stripping helps you spot early mastitis and stimulates 00:03:10.180 --> 00:03:12.159 milk flow. Two birds, one stone. Pretty much. 00:03:12.560 --> 00:03:16.020 Then a thorough pre -dip. let it sit for at least 00:03:16.020 --> 00:03:18.780 30 seconds contact time, that's vital, followed 00:03:18.780 --> 00:03:21.680 by completely drying each teat with its own individual 00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:23.860 towel. Individual towels, yep. Attaching the 00:03:23.860 --> 00:03:27.879 milking unit within, say, 60 to 120 seconds after 00:03:27.879 --> 00:03:29.879 stimulation, that's considered the sweet spot 00:03:29.879 --> 00:03:32.699 for milk out. Okay. Proper alignment of the unit 00:03:32.699 --> 00:03:35.620 is also crucial. prevents liner slips, potential 00:03:35.620 --> 00:03:38.759 vacuum issues, and finally, the immediate post 00:03:38.759 --> 00:03:40.840 -dip, making sure the entire teat is covered. 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:43.080 That's non -negotiable. And that post -dip makes 00:03:43.080 --> 00:03:45.199 a big difference. Believe it or not, post -dipping 00:03:45.199 --> 00:03:47.699 alone can reduce new infection rates by over 00:03:47.699 --> 00:03:51.479 50%. Wow, over half. Yeah, that's a huge return 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:53.599 for a relatively straightforward practice. Those 00:03:53.599 --> 00:03:56.000 are really practical takeaways. It highlights 00:03:56.000 --> 00:03:58.500 that often it's the consistent execution of the 00:03:58.500 --> 00:04:02.000 basics that yields the biggest rewards. Now, 00:04:02.020 --> 00:04:04.159 what about the milking equipment itself? even 00:04:04.159 --> 00:04:06.599 with the best protocols, if the gear isn't up 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:08.659 to par. Oh, absolutely. That can cause problems. 00:04:08.919 --> 00:04:11.219 Your milking system needs regular attention to 00:04:11.219 --> 00:04:13.680 support your utter health efforts. Regular maintenance 00:04:13.680 --> 00:04:16.560 is essential. Like what specifically? Well, replacing 00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:19.759 inflations or liners on time, consistently checking 00:04:19.759 --> 00:04:22.079 vacuum levels, and getting a professional to 00:04:22.079 --> 00:04:24.620 evaluate the entire system at least once a year. 00:04:24.839 --> 00:04:26.720 Preventative maintenance, basically. Think of 00:04:26.720 --> 00:04:28.740 it exactly like that. Preventative maintenance 00:04:28.740 --> 00:04:31.180 for your milking process. Okay, so we've covered 00:04:31.180 --> 00:04:33.420 the environment and the process. What are some 00:04:33.420 --> 00:04:35.420 of the newer technologies that the bull vine 00:04:35.420 --> 00:04:37.939 has been highlighting that offer some advantages 00:04:37.939 --> 00:04:40.920 in managing udder health? Yeah, there are some 00:04:40.920 --> 00:04:42.779 interesting innovations coming onto the market. 00:04:42.819 --> 00:04:45.920 For instance, Milkright Interpols has developed 00:04:45.920 --> 00:04:48.860 these triangular liners. Triangular. How do they 00:04:48.860 --> 00:04:51.459 help? They aim to distribute pressure more evenly 00:04:51.459 --> 00:04:53.959 during milking, which can lead to better teat 00:04:53.959 --> 00:04:57.560 condition and fewer liner slips. They also have 00:04:57.560 --> 00:05:00.019 a tool called Emapulse that monitors various 00:05:00.019 --> 00:05:02.300 milking parameters. An early warning system. 00:05:02.649 --> 00:05:04.610 Kind of, yeah. Gives you a heads up on potential 00:05:04.610 --> 00:05:07.089 equipment malfunctions. Then you have in -cow 00:05:07.089 --> 00:05:10.029 monitoring systems like the SMAX -TEC bolus. 00:05:10.129 --> 00:05:12.649 Right, the boluses. It tracks internal body temperature, 00:05:12.970 --> 00:05:16.089 rumination, movement, shrinking patterns. What's 00:05:16.089 --> 00:05:18.129 really interesting is that it can detect mastitis 00:05:18.129 --> 00:05:20.350 up to four days before you might see clinical 00:05:20.350 --> 00:05:23.720 signs. Four days early, that's huge. It is, potentially 00:05:23.720 --> 00:05:26.420 reducing the need for antibiotics quite significantly, 00:05:26.579 --> 00:05:29.800 some reports suggest by as much as 70%. 70%, 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:33.439 wow. And in robotic milking systems, Lele's MQCC 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:36.439 provides automated daily somatic cell counts, 00:05:36.600 --> 00:05:39.000 giving you much more frequent data than traditional 00:05:39.000 --> 00:05:42.100 testing. That early detection aspect sounds like 00:05:42.100 --> 00:05:43.879 it could be a real game changer for managing 00:05:43.879 --> 00:05:46.800 infections more proactively. What about the role 00:05:46.800 --> 00:05:50.060 of nutrition in all this? Nutrition plays a supportive 00:05:50.060 --> 00:05:53.819 but important role. Helping cows maintain a strong 00:05:53.819 --> 00:05:57.459 immune system is key. Feed additives like fibrozomagen 00:05:57.459 --> 00:05:59.699 are designed to support immune function, making 00:05:59.699 --> 00:06:02.300 cows better able to resist those mastitis -causing 00:06:02.300 --> 00:06:05.160 pathogens. University research has indicated 00:06:05.160 --> 00:06:07.060 a pretty good return on investment with these 00:06:07.060 --> 00:06:09.040 types of products, potentially through increased 00:06:09.040 --> 00:06:11.800 milk, better overall health, and improved repro 00:06:11.800 --> 00:06:14.540 performance. So it's really a multifaceted approach, 00:06:14.660 --> 00:06:17.730 isn't it? Environment, milking practices, equipment, 00:06:17.990 --> 00:06:19.670 nutrition, they all work together. Definitely. 00:06:19.889 --> 00:06:22.870 But the bull vine also emphasizes the importance 00:06:22.870 --> 00:06:25.750 of the people on the farm, your team. Absolutely 00:06:25.750 --> 00:06:28.089 critical. Research out of Michigan State University 00:06:28.089 --> 00:06:30.889 has clearly demonstrated that investing in thorough 00:06:30.889 --> 00:06:33.689 employee training leads to significant improvements 00:06:33.689 --> 00:06:36.870 in milking procedures and ultimately in milk 00:06:36.870 --> 00:06:39.269 quality. It's not just what they do, but why. 00:06:39.589 --> 00:06:41.949 Exactly. It's not just about telling your teen 00:06:41.949 --> 00:06:44.029 what steps to follow, but ensuring they understand 00:06:44.029 --> 00:06:46.709 why each step is important. That understanding 00:06:46.709 --> 00:06:49.310 fosters more consistent adherence to protocols. 00:06:49.629 --> 00:06:51.430 Makes sense. Well -trained employees are also 00:06:51.430 --> 00:06:53.889 more likely to maintain proper pre -milking teat 00:06:53.889 --> 00:06:56.269 prep, ensure good teat disinfection, disinfectant 00:06:56.269 --> 00:06:59.069 coverage, and stick to correct pre -dip contact 00:06:59.069 --> 00:07:01.870 times. Interestingly, this can even contribute 00:07:01.870 --> 00:07:04.209 to decreased average milking times, improving 00:07:04.209 --> 00:07:06.610 parlor efficiency. That makes perfect sense. 00:07:06.790 --> 00:07:09.449 If the team understands the why behind the what, 00:07:09.610 --> 00:07:11.970 they're much more likely to be engaged and consistent. 00:07:12.430 --> 00:07:15.290 So, for a producer looking to really get a handle 00:07:15.290 --> 00:07:18.129 on udder health, what are the crucial steps in 00:07:18.129 --> 00:07:21.139 developing a farm -specific plan? The University 00:07:21.139 --> 00:07:23.220 of Minnesota Extension offers a very practical 00:07:23.220 --> 00:07:26.259 three -step framework. First, you need to identify 00:07:26.259 --> 00:07:29.160 the primary pathogens present on your farm through 00:07:29.160 --> 00:07:32.579 milk cultures. Know your enemy. Precisely. Knowing 00:07:32.579 --> 00:07:34.980 whether you're dealing with contagious or environmental 00:07:34.980 --> 00:07:37.639 organisms will significantly guide your control 00:07:37.639 --> 00:07:41.120 strategies. Second, analyze your farm's specific 00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:43.680 infection patterns. When and where are these 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:45.939 infections occurring? Which groups of animals 00:07:45.939 --> 00:07:48.500 are most affected? This helps pinpoint the underlying 00:07:48.500 --> 00:07:52.149 risks. Finally, based on this data, you create 00:07:52.149 --> 00:07:55.389 a targeted action plan. Prioritize the interventions 00:07:55.389 --> 00:07:57.610 that will have the greatest impact on your specific 00:07:57.610 --> 00:08:00.509 situation. And involve others. Yeah. It's really 00:08:00.509 --> 00:08:02.790 beneficial to build an advisory team, your vet, 00:08:02.930 --> 00:08:05.990 employees, nutritionist, equipment tech. Regular 00:08:05.990 --> 00:08:07.829 reviews of your data with this team help you 00:08:07.829 --> 00:08:09.769 stay on track and adjust. And keep monitoring. 00:08:10.220 --> 00:08:12.860 And of course, consistently monitor key metrics 00:08:12.860 --> 00:08:15.120 like somatic cell count, mastitis, incidence 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.000 rates, culture results. See if your plan is working 00:08:18.000 --> 00:08:20.459 and make adjustments as needed. So it's about 00:08:20.459 --> 00:08:23.220 understanding your farm's unique situation, bringing 00:08:23.220 --> 00:08:25.920 in the right expertise, and using data to inform 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:28.139 your decisions. It sounds like those seemingly 00:08:28.139 --> 00:08:30.160 small changes in those fundamental practices, 00:08:30.339 --> 00:08:33.820 clean towels, full teak dip coverage, early detection, 00:08:34.139 --> 00:08:36.679 consistent bedding management can really add 00:08:36.679 --> 00:08:39.120 up. Exactly. Big improvements in udder health 00:08:39.120 --> 00:08:42.200 and ultimately your profitability. Healthy udders 00:08:42.200 --> 00:08:44.820 aren't luck. They are the direct result of intentional 00:08:44.820 --> 00:08:47.360 management and a continuous focus on those critical 00:08:47.360 --> 00:08:50.080 details. OK, let's pivot now to some of the bigger 00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:52.860 economic forces at play. The bullvine has been 00:08:52.860 --> 00:08:55.860 covering the rather complex situation with U 00:08:55.860 --> 00:08:58.860 .S. dairy and the Chinese market. Right. It seems 00:08:58.860 --> 00:09:00.840 counterintuitive. China's milk production is 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:03.519 down yet. U .S. producers might not be able to 00:09:03.519 --> 00:09:05.879 capitalize. What's the core issue there? You've 00:09:05.879 --> 00:09:08.639 highlighted a key paradox. While China's domestic 00:09:08.639 --> 00:09:11.240 milk production is indeed projected to decrease 00:09:11.240 --> 00:09:15.059 maybe around 9 .2 percent in 2025, the likelihood 00:09:15.059 --> 00:09:17.639 of U .S. dairy farmers seeing a significant boost 00:09:17.639 --> 00:09:20.899 in exports to China is, well, quite low. Why 00:09:20.899 --> 00:09:23.139 is that? The primary obstacle is a substantial 00:09:23.139 --> 00:09:26.840 84 % retaliatory tariff currently in place on 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:29.799 U .S. dairy exports. 84%. Wow, that's a massive 00:09:29.799 --> 00:09:31.659 barrier. How does that impact our ability to 00:09:31.659 --> 00:09:34.179 compete? It essentially makes U .S. dairy products 00:09:34.179 --> 00:09:38.120 prohibitively expensive in China. That 84 % tariff 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:41.200 means U .S. dairy becomes about 104 % more expensive 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:47.600 than products should be. It already holds a dominant 00:09:47.600 --> 00:09:50.399 position in China's import market, maybe 46 % 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:52.940 share, largely thanks to their existing free 00:09:52.940 --> 00:09:55.620 trade agreement. This tariff puts U .S. producers 00:09:55.620 --> 00:09:58.460 at a very, very significant disadvantage. So 00:09:58.460 --> 00:10:00.299 it's not just the tariff itself, but also the 00:10:00.299 --> 00:10:02.460 existing trade landscape that's making things 00:10:02.460 --> 00:10:04.659 difficult. Are there other factors on the Chinese 00:10:04.659 --> 00:10:07.299 side limiting demand? Yes, there are several 00:10:07.299 --> 00:10:09.720 other important factors to consider. China has 00:10:09.720 --> 00:10:12.399 a very high prevalence of lactose intolerance, 00:10:12.440 --> 00:10:16.440 estimated around 87 % among teenagers. That naturally 00:10:16.440 --> 00:10:19.940 limits fluid milk growth. Exactly. Plus, China's 00:10:19.940 --> 00:10:21.980 birth rate has been declining, which directly 00:10:21.980 --> 00:10:24.820 impacts infant formula sales, historically significant 00:10:24.820 --> 00:10:28.259 dairy import. Their economy is also facing some 00:10:28.259 --> 00:10:30.980 headwinds, issues in real estate, high youth 00:10:30.980 --> 00:10:33.720 unemployment, which can lead to reduced consumer 00:10:33.720 --> 00:10:36.529 spending on non -essentials. like dairy. It sounds 00:10:36.529 --> 00:10:39.289 like even without the tariffs, the demand picture 00:10:39.289 --> 00:10:41.590 in China might be more complex than just a dip 00:10:41.590 --> 00:10:43.269 in their domestic production. What about China's 00:10:43.269 --> 00:10:46.090 own dairy industry? We saw reports of big growth 00:10:46.090 --> 00:10:48.529 recently. That's correct. Between, say, 2018 00:10:48.529 --> 00:10:51.789 and 2023, China really pushed to increase domestic 00:10:51.789 --> 00:10:54.269 milk production, part of a strategy to reduce 00:10:54.269 --> 00:10:56.610 import reliance. But now... But now they are 00:10:56.610 --> 00:10:59.309 facing a situation of oversupply. This has resulted 00:10:59.309 --> 00:11:01.850 in a considerable drop in raw milk prices, around 00:11:01.850 --> 00:11:06.429 28 % between 2021 and 2024. Ouch. Yeah, and this 00:11:06.429 --> 00:11:08.710 price decline has put significant pressure on 00:11:08.710 --> 00:11:11.009 smaller dairy farms within China, forcing some 00:11:11.009 --> 00:11:13.070 out of business. So they're grappling with their 00:11:13.070 --> 00:11:15.669 own domestic issues of oversupply and potentially 00:11:15.669 --> 00:11:18.570 softening demand. It paints a pretty clear picture 00:11:18.570 --> 00:11:22.070 for U .S. exports to China near term. It does. 00:11:22.250 --> 00:11:24.809 What's the key message for U .S. dairy farmers 00:11:24.809 --> 00:11:27.620 from the bull vines reporting on this? The primary 00:11:27.620 --> 00:11:29.500 takeaway is we'll don't anticipate significant 00:11:29.500 --> 00:11:31.899 export opportunities to China in the foreseeable 00:11:31.899 --> 00:11:34.840 future. The recommended approach is to actively 00:11:34.840 --> 00:11:38.610 diversify markets. For smaller operations, maybe 00:11:38.610 --> 00:11:42.090 focusing on niche markets domestically. Medium 00:11:42.090 --> 00:11:44.490 -sized farms could explore funding, like through 00:11:44.490 --> 00:11:47.690 the USDA's Market Access Program, to help build 00:11:47.690 --> 00:11:50.970 markets in Southeast Asia or Latin America. Larger 00:11:50.970 --> 00:11:54.549 operations might need to reevaluate their product 00:11:54.549 --> 00:11:57.330 mix for less impacted markets, or even consider 00:11:57.330 --> 00:11:59.970 joint ventures in countries with free trade agreements 00:11:59.970 --> 00:12:03.049 with China. Key alternative markets to watch 00:12:03.049 --> 00:12:05.269 are definitely Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the 00:12:05.269 --> 00:12:07.970 Middle East -North Africa region. It really underscores 00:12:07.970 --> 00:12:10.629 the risk of relying too heavily on a single export 00:12:10.629 --> 00:12:13.750 market, especially right now. Absolutely. Diversification 00:12:13.750 --> 00:12:16.389 is just crucial risk mitigation in this environment. 00:12:16.710 --> 00:12:19.350 Let's shift our focus now to what the bullvine 00:12:19.350 --> 00:12:22.240 has been calling a perfect storm. brewing for 00:12:22.240 --> 00:12:25.639 the U .S. dairy industry in 2025. Initial optimism 00:12:25.639 --> 00:12:29.059 seems to have faded considerably. Yeah, things 00:12:29.059 --> 00:12:31.220 have shifted. What are the main factors contributing 00:12:31.220 --> 00:12:33.740 to this challenging outlook? Several factors 00:12:33.740 --> 00:12:36.240 are converging to create a really difficult situation. 00:12:36.759 --> 00:12:39.259 We've seen a significant decline in milk prices 00:12:39.259 --> 00:12:42.940 since the start of 2025. For example, Class III 00:12:42.940 --> 00:12:47.379 futures dropped by roughly $2 .50 per hundredweight. 00:12:47.659 --> 00:12:49.799 And what does that mean for a farm? Well, for 00:12:49.799 --> 00:12:51.940 a farm producing around a million pounds of milk 00:12:51.940 --> 00:12:54.019 each month, that can translate to a substantial 00:12:54.019 --> 00:12:57.039 revenue cut, maybe $25 ,000 a month. That's a 00:12:57.039 --> 00:12:58.980 big hit. Yeah, and Class IV futures have seen 00:12:58.980 --> 00:13:01.320 a similar downward trend. But it's not just milk 00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:04.399 prices, is it? There's also this unusual situation 00:13:04.399 --> 00:13:08.299 with butterfat. Yes, the butterfat paradox, as 00:13:08.299 --> 00:13:10.960 it's being called. Despite U .S. cows producing 00:13:10.960 --> 00:13:13.100 milk with... Pretty high components, averaging 00:13:13.100 --> 00:13:16.279 around 4 .4 % butterfat and, you know, successful 00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:18.460 butter production here. We're making good butterfat. 00:13:18.559 --> 00:13:21.480 Right. But we're seeing a significant surge in 00:13:21.480 --> 00:13:25.600 butter imports. up by a remarkable 46 % compared 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:29.659 to last year, reaching 172 million pounds. Imports 00:13:29.659 --> 00:13:32.299 are up that much. Yeah. And this influx of imported 00:13:32.299 --> 00:13:34.820 butter has contributed to a notable price decline. 00:13:35.419 --> 00:13:39.639 CME butter prices in April 2025 were down 19 00:13:39.639 --> 00:13:42.440 % compared to the previous year. So we're producing 00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:45.019 plenty of butterfat, yet we're also importing 00:13:45.019 --> 00:13:47.379 a lot of butter, which is then driving down domestic 00:13:47.379 --> 00:13:50.620 prices. Seems like a disconnect. It certainly 00:13:50.620 --> 00:13:52.700 highlights the complexities of global commodity 00:13:52.700 --> 00:13:56.539 markets and potential shifts in trade flows or 00:13:56.539 --> 00:13:59.500 consumer demand. On a slightly more positive 00:13:59.500 --> 00:14:02.000 note, there has been some relief in feed costs. 00:14:02.519 --> 00:14:05.059 Prices for both corn and alfalfa have come down. 00:14:05.139 --> 00:14:07.240 So maybe lock those in. Yeah, it would be prudent 00:14:07.240 --> 00:14:09.100 for producers to consider locking in these lower 00:14:09.100 --> 00:14:11.580 prices now to help offset some of the challenges 00:14:11.580 --> 00:14:13.940 with milk prices. Every little bit helps in this 00:14:13.940 --> 00:14:15.580 environment. We're also seeing this increasing 00:14:15.580 --> 00:14:18.200 trend of beef on dairy breeding. What are the 00:14:18.200 --> 00:14:20.580 implications there? Right. The growing popularity 00:14:20.580 --> 00:14:23.659 of beef on dairy, record beef semen sales last 00:14:23.659 --> 00:14:26.100 year, it does provide a short -term benefit. 00:14:26.200 --> 00:14:28.759 You get better cash flow from selling those crossbred 00:14:28.759 --> 00:14:31.440 calves. Makes the downside. But there is a potential 00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:34.379 long -term risk of creating a shortage of replacement 00:14:34.379 --> 00:14:38.000 heifers for dairy herds down the line. So a potential 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:41.100 trade -off between immediate cash and long -term 00:14:41.100 --> 00:14:43.580 herd sustainability. Exactly. You have to weigh 00:14:43.580 --> 00:14:46.679 that carefully. Given all this market volatility, 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:49.740 what are some of the key strategies the bullvine 00:14:49.740 --> 00:14:51.860 is suggesting for producers to navigate this 00:14:51.860 --> 00:14:54.440 perfect storm? The key survival strategies really 00:14:54.440 --> 00:14:56.700 center around careful risk management and cost 00:14:56.700 --> 00:15:00.360 control. Locking in those lower feed costs. definitely 00:15:00.360 --> 00:15:03.299 a priority. Maximizing revenue from the beef 00:15:03.299 --> 00:15:05.740 market crossbreds. Cull cows make sense short 00:15:05.740 --> 00:15:08.179 term, but producers need to plan carefully for 00:15:08.179 --> 00:15:10.299 future replacement needs. And risk management 00:15:10.299 --> 00:15:12.500 tools. And perhaps more critical than ever, using 00:15:12.500 --> 00:15:16.240 tools like dairy margin coverage, DMC, and dairy 00:15:16.240 --> 00:15:19.139 revenue protection, Dairy Ash RP. They'll be 00:15:19.139 --> 00:15:22.059 essential to help stabilize those fluctuating 00:15:22.059 --> 00:15:24.600 profit margins. It sounds like a time for very 00:15:24.600 --> 00:15:28.399 careful planning and strategic decision -making 00:15:28.399 --> 00:15:31.000 to weather these converging challenges. Absolutely. 00:15:31.159 --> 00:15:33.940 A proactive and well -thought -out approach will 00:15:33.940 --> 00:15:37.049 be crucial. Now, let's delve a bit deeper into 00:15:37.049 --> 00:15:39.730 the impact of trade policies. It seems the mere 00:15:39.730 --> 00:15:42.450 threat of tariffs can have a significant impact 00:15:42.450 --> 00:15:44.629 even before they're implemented. That's a very 00:15:44.629 --> 00:15:47.110 astute observation. Our reporting at the Bullvine 00:15:47.110 --> 00:15:49.289 indicates the U .S. dairy industry has become 00:15:49.289 --> 00:15:51.970 increasingly reliant on exports, you know, anywhere 00:15:51.970 --> 00:15:54.269 from 15 to 20 percent of our total production 00:15:54.269 --> 00:15:56.649 now heading overseas. And key markets are at 00:15:56.649 --> 00:15:59.750 risk. Major markets like Mexico and Canada, which 00:15:59.750 --> 00:16:02.809 together account for about 43 % of all U .S. 00:16:02.830 --> 00:16:05.350 dairy exports, are currently facing the risk 00:16:05.350 --> 00:16:08.129 of retaliatory tariffs and the impact of just 00:16:08.129 --> 00:16:09.990 the threat of new tariffs. It's already been 00:16:09.990 --> 00:16:12.490 felt. Milk futures reportedly dropped by around 00:16:12.490 --> 00:16:16.009 12 % since February 2025, simply due to these 00:16:16.009 --> 00:16:18.830 credible threats. Wow, 12 % just on the threat. 00:16:18.990 --> 00:16:21.110 That really highlights market sensitivity to 00:16:21.110 --> 00:16:23.870 this uncertainty. What about the USMCA agreement 00:16:23.870 --> 00:16:25.850 with Canada and Mexico? Wasn't that supposed 00:16:25.850 --> 00:16:28.110 to help? Well, while the USMCA was intended to 00:16:28.110 --> 00:16:31.049 improve trade relationships, administrative barriers 00:16:31.049 --> 00:16:33.830 continued to present challenges for US exporters, 00:16:34.029 --> 00:16:36.950 particularly with Canada trying to fully access 00:16:36.950 --> 00:16:40.169 the intended duty -free quotas. So practical 00:16:40.169 --> 00:16:42.570 hurdles remain. Exactly. It's not just about 00:16:42.570 --> 00:16:45.549 the official tariff rates. There are also practical 00:16:45.549 --> 00:16:47.889 hurdles in taking advantage of those preferential 00:16:47.889 --> 00:16:50.950 rates. So even with agreements, trade isn't always 00:16:50.950 --> 00:16:53.370 smooth. What's the impact of this uncertainty 00:16:53.370 --> 00:16:56.440 on farms of different sizes? Small and medium 00:16:56.440 --> 00:16:58.799 sized dairy farms are often the most vulnerable 00:16:58.799 --> 00:17:01.720 to these kinds of trade disruptions. Estimates 00:17:01.720 --> 00:17:04.299 suggest that medium sized operations could potentially 00:17:04.299 --> 00:17:06.799 see their annual income decrease by as much as 00:17:06.799 --> 00:17:10.420 $56 ,000 due to tariff impacts. That's significant. 00:17:10.700 --> 00:17:13.440 It can really exacerbate existing financial pressures. 00:17:13.680 --> 00:17:16.000 And while there was that 90 day pause announced 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:19.400 on most new tariffs back on April 9th, the overall 00:17:19.400 --> 00:17:22.099 situation remains quite volatile. The advice 00:17:22.099 --> 00:17:24.690 continues to be. Lock in contracts where possible, 00:17:24.930 --> 00:17:27.289 explore hedging strategies, and actively look 00:17:27.289 --> 00:17:30.190 to diversify markets beyond North America. Southeast 00:17:30.190 --> 00:17:32.930 Asia is one region with potential. And China 00:17:32.930 --> 00:17:35.230 during this pause. Interestingly, during this 00:17:35.230 --> 00:17:37.869 same period, the tariff on U .S. dairy imports 00:17:37.869 --> 00:17:41.869 into China actually increased to 125%. 125%. 00:17:41.869 --> 00:17:45.009 So the situation with China is actually worsening, 00:17:45.009 --> 00:17:48.880 even with the temporary reprieve. Precisely. 00:17:48.880 --> 00:17:51.220 It really underscores the need for adaptability 00:17:51.220 --> 00:17:54.420 and exploring alternative markets. Relying solely 00:17:54.420 --> 00:17:56.759 on traditional markets just isn't a guarantee 00:17:56.759 --> 00:17:59.180 of stability anymore. Let's drill down further 00:17:59.180 --> 00:18:02.079 into those increased Chinese tariffs. We've discussed 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:04.900 the broad implications, but the bull vine pointed 00:18:04.900 --> 00:18:07.900 out a specific crisis unfolding for U .S. exports 00:18:07.900 --> 00:18:11.180 of whey and lactose. What makes these so vulnerable? 00:18:11.660 --> 00:18:13.799 The increased tariffs on China are indeed particularly 00:18:13.799 --> 00:18:17.119 damaging for U .S. whey and lactose. These two 00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:19.339 product categories together represent over, what, 00:18:19.420 --> 00:18:22.119 $500 million in annual sales to China? Half a 00:18:22.119 --> 00:18:24.119 billion dollars. Yeah. And what makes this so 00:18:24.119 --> 00:18:26.380 critical is that China is a major consumer of 00:18:26.380 --> 00:18:28.980 these ingredients. They absorb a very significant 00:18:28.980 --> 00:18:32.039 portion of U .S. exports, around 42 % of U .S. 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:35.119 whey and a staggering 72 % of U .S. lactose. 00:18:35.160 --> 00:18:38.200 72 % of our lactose exports go to China. That's 00:18:38.200 --> 00:18:41.680 the figure. So this 84 % retaliatory tariff effectively 00:18:41.680 --> 00:18:44.700 renders U .S. whey and lactose uncompetitive 00:18:44.700 --> 00:18:47.809 in the Chinese market almost overnight. It essentially 00:18:47.809 --> 00:18:49.930 slams the door shut, you know? Those are huge 00:18:49.930 --> 00:18:52.309 percentages. Losing that access must create a 00:18:52.309 --> 00:18:54.650 significant oversupply here. Exactly. We have 00:18:54.650 --> 00:18:56.849 historical data from the trade dispute back in 00:18:56.849 --> 00:19:00.369 2019 that offers some insight. Back then, a 25 00:19:00.369 --> 00:19:04.349 % tariff led to a 55 % drop in U .S. way exports 00:19:04.349 --> 00:19:07.150 to China and a substantial price collapse. And 00:19:07.150 --> 00:19:09.029 the tariffs are much higher now. With the current 00:19:09.029 --> 00:19:11.829 tariffs at 84%, the impact could be even more 00:19:11.829 --> 00:19:14.430 severe, especially when you consider that U .S. 00:19:14.450 --> 00:19:16.549 production capacity for these products has actually 00:19:16.549 --> 00:19:19.109 increased since 2019. So more product, much smaller 00:19:19.109 --> 00:19:21.529 market. Who potentially benefits from this shift? 00:19:22.029 --> 00:19:24.049 Well, New Zealand, with their duty -free access 00:19:24.049 --> 00:19:26.890 and the European Union offering food -grade products, 00:19:27.049 --> 00:19:29.289 are very well positioned to gain market share 00:19:29.289 --> 00:19:31.690 at the expense of U .S. producers. Their trade 00:19:31.690 --> 00:19:33.809 advantages become even more significant. They 00:19:33.809 --> 00:19:36.809 do, now that the U .S. is facing these high tariff 00:19:36.809 --> 00:19:39.089 barriers. It really highlights the strategic 00:19:39.089 --> 00:19:41.710 importance of those free trade agreements. So 00:19:41.710 --> 00:19:43.809 what's the immediate advice for U .S. producers 00:19:43.809 --> 00:19:47.250 heavily involved in whey and lactose? The immediate 00:19:47.250 --> 00:19:49.990 need is to aggressively pursue diversification 00:19:49.990 --> 00:19:53.299 of export markets. Focus on regions like Mexico, 00:19:53.619 --> 00:19:56.400 Southeast Asia. There also needs to be a strategic 00:19:56.400 --> 00:19:59.279 shift towards producing more value -added dairy 00:19:59.279 --> 00:20:01.680 products like cheese and butter, which might 00:20:01.680 --> 00:20:04.500 be less severely impacted. In contracts. And 00:20:04.500 --> 00:20:06.920 where possible, securing forward contracts in 00:20:06.920 --> 00:20:09.079 alternative markets will be a crucial risk management 00:20:09.079 --> 00:20:11.859 tool. This situation really just underscores 00:20:11.859 --> 00:20:14.319 the significant dangers of over -reliance on 00:20:14.319 --> 00:20:17.160 a single export destination. A challenging but 00:20:17.160 --> 00:20:19.180 necessary adjustment for that sector, it sounds 00:20:19.180 --> 00:20:21.670 like. Finally, let's turn to what the bull line 00:20:21.670 --> 00:20:24.190 described as a potentially existential threat. 00:20:24.289 --> 00:20:26.829 The proposed fines on migrants facing deportation 00:20:26.829 --> 00:20:29.529 orders. Yes. This sounds very concerning given 00:20:29.529 --> 00:20:31.589 the industry's reliance on immigrant labor. It 00:20:31.589 --> 00:20:33.549 is indeed a very serious potential threat. The 00:20:33.549 --> 00:20:37.509 proposal is to impose fines of $998 per day on 00:20:37.509 --> 00:20:39.549 migrants who have received deportation orders 00:20:39.549 --> 00:20:42.549 per day. And the dairy industry in the U .S. 00:20:42.549 --> 00:20:45.269 is heavily reliant on immigrant labor. They make 00:20:45.269 --> 00:20:47.990 up a significant 51 % of the workforce. Over 00:20:47.990 --> 00:20:50.289 half. And are responsible for an even larger 00:20:50.289 --> 00:20:54.029 79 % of the nation's total milk production. 79%. 00:20:54.029 --> 00:20:57.650 Those are incredibly high percentages, highlighting 00:20:57.650 --> 00:21:01.210 just how crucial immigrant labor is. What are 00:21:01.210 --> 00:21:04.390 the potential consequences if this policy goes 00:21:04.390 --> 00:21:06.839 through and reduces that workforce? Economic 00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:09.259 models project some truly devastating outcomes. 00:21:09.480 --> 00:21:12.400 We could see a reduction of approximately 2 .1 00:21:12.400 --> 00:21:15.619 million dairy cows. 2 .1 million cows gone? Yes. 00:21:16.079 --> 00:21:18.359 The closure of around 7 ,000 dairy farms across 00:21:18.359 --> 00:21:20.680 the country. And a near doubling of milk prices 00:21:20.680 --> 00:21:22.559 at the retail level, potentially reaching as 00:21:22.559 --> 00:21:26.319 high as $7 .60 a gallon. $7 .60 a gallon. Yeah. 00:21:26.440 --> 00:21:28.980 And major dairy states like Wisconsin, where 00:21:28.980 --> 00:21:31.539 it's estimated 70 % of the dairy labor force 00:21:31.539 --> 00:21:33.819 are immigrants. 70 % in Wisconsin. Along with 00:21:33.819 --> 00:21:37.420 New York at 61%, California at 50%. They face 00:21:37.420 --> 00:21:39.700 particularly severe risks. A potential doubling 00:21:39.700 --> 00:21:41.779 of milk prices would have a massive impact, not 00:21:41.779 --> 00:21:44.519 just on the industry, but on consumers too. Is 00:21:44.519 --> 00:21:46.779 there any way technology like robotic milking 00:21:46.779 --> 00:21:49.059 could step in here? Well, while technologies 00:21:49.059 --> 00:21:51.619 like robotic milking systems are certainly advancing, 00:21:51.859 --> 00:21:54.400 the cost remains a significant barrier for most 00:21:54.400 --> 00:21:57.539 farms, especially those already facing the financial 00:21:57.539 --> 00:21:59.380 pressures we've been talking about. How much 00:21:59.380 --> 00:22:01.640 are we talking? A single robotic milking unit 00:22:01.640 --> 00:22:05.700 can cost upwards of $250 ,000. That's simply 00:22:05.700 --> 00:22:08.180 not a feasible investment for many operations, 00:22:08.460 --> 00:22:11.000 particularly not quickly in the current economic 00:22:11.000 --> 00:22:14.069 climate. So technology isn't a quick or easy 00:22:14.069 --> 00:22:17.269 fix for this potential labor shortage. And this 00:22:17.269 --> 00:22:19.670 is looming at the same time as these significant 00:22:19.670 --> 00:22:22.069 trade challenges. That's correct. This potential 00:22:22.069 --> 00:22:24.869 labor crisis is compounded by the risks of tariffs 00:22:24.869 --> 00:22:28.369 on dairy exports to Mexico and Canada. It creates 00:22:28.369 --> 00:22:30.609 a really damaging double whammy for the U .S. 00:22:30.609 --> 00:22:33.109 dairy industry. A double whammy indeed. It sounds 00:22:33.109 --> 00:22:35.549 like the industry is facing a confluence of very 00:22:35.549 --> 00:22:37.990 serious challenges. What's the call to action 00:22:37.990 --> 00:22:40.250 from the bullvine on this labor issue? The industry 00:22:40.250 --> 00:22:42.650 is urgently advocating for congressional action, 00:22:42.809 --> 00:22:45.369 specifically to establish year -round agricultural 00:22:45.369 --> 00:22:48.210 visas that address the dairy industry's specific 00:22:48.210 --> 00:22:50.910 labor needs and prevent this potential collapse. 00:22:51.210 --> 00:22:54.789 A legal, stable workforce. Exactly. Without a 00:22:54.789 --> 00:22:56.990 viable solution like that, the U .S. could very 00:22:56.990 --> 00:22:59.910 well transition from being a leading dairy producer 00:22:59.910 --> 00:23:03.069 to becoming a net importer of dairy products. 00:23:03.390 --> 00:23:06.009 It's a stark warning, really underscores the 00:23:06.009 --> 00:23:08.970 fundamental role immigrant labor plays in our 00:23:08.970 --> 00:23:11.150 domestic food production. Absolutely. It's a 00:23:11.150 --> 00:23:13.730 critical issue for the long -term sustainability 00:23:13.730 --> 00:23:16.029 of the U .S. dairy industry. Well, as we can 00:23:16.029 --> 00:23:18.549 see, the dairy industry is navigating a period 00:23:18.549 --> 00:23:22.109 of significant turbulence, maybe even unprecedented 00:23:22.109 --> 00:23:25.589 turbulence. From the essential practices of maintaining 00:23:25.589 --> 00:23:28.569 utter health, right down on the farm, to the 00:23:28.569 --> 00:23:32.089 complexities of global trade wars and the looming 00:23:32.089 --> 00:23:34.990 threat of labor shortages, there are many interconnected 00:23:34.990 --> 00:23:38.369 factors impacting operations. We hope this deep 00:23:38.369 --> 00:23:40.450 dive into these key stories from the Bullvine 00:23:40.450 --> 00:23:42.849 Newsroom has provided you with a clearer understanding. 00:23:43.480 --> 00:23:45.779 Yeah, it's a landscape that demands careful attention 00:23:45.779 --> 00:23:49.019 and proactive planning. Staying informed about 00:23:49.019 --> 00:23:50.920 these interconnected challenges is really the 00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:53.099 first and most important step towards navigating 00:23:53.099 --> 00:23:55.380 them successfully. So for you, the listener, 00:23:55.500 --> 00:23:57.500 what stands out as the most pressing concern 00:23:57.500 --> 00:23:59.519 from all that we've discussed today? And what 00:23:59.519 --> 00:24:02.039 strategies are you currently considering or maybe 00:24:02.039 --> 00:24:04.559 implementing on your farm to address these challenges? 00:24:04.680 --> 00:24:07.420 This is an ongoing conversation and staying informed 00:24:07.420 --> 00:24:09.940 and adaptable will be absolutely crucial in the 00:24:09.940 --> 00:24:12.319 months and years ahead. Thanks for joining us 00:24:12.319 --> 00:24:13.180 for this deep dive.