Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, where we decode
the battles shaping dairy genetics. Today we're
diving into Stud Wars, April 2025, The Genetic
Force Awakens, a galactic showdown where AI companies
clash for Holstein supremacy. In this episode,
sexing technologies. 53 .5 % net merit dollars
takeover. The death star of profit genetics,
ABS Global's 68 .5 % polled coup. The Vader -like
grip on horn -free markets. PTAT's rebel alliance
fighting for diversity in a consolidating galaxy
strap -in. This isn't just May the 4th, it's
May the Herd. all right so uh we've got this
report and uh it's like someone snuck us the
uh the holstein genetic playbook for uh you know
april 2025 it's uh it's called stud wars april
2025 the genetic force awakens and honestly it's
a real page turner if you're uh you know If you're
making breeding decisions these days. Yeah, I
could see that. This isn't just, you know, looking
at sire catalogs. This is like watching a live
battle for market share, you know, between all
the big AI companies. Right. And there are some
big changes happening. Who's on top? Who's maybe
not doing as well? Yeah. And the big question
for all of us is, what does this mean when you're
at the tank picking out straws? Yeah, for sure.
That's the bottom line. Think of this like a...
Ringside seats to the genetic main event of the
year. So this report, it digs into all the big
numbers, you know, the stuff that matters. We're
talking TPI. That's the total performance index.
Still a big deal for a lot of breeders. And then
there's NM1 net merit dollars because you got
to make money, right? Of course, profit's the
name of the game. Exactly. And then for those
who like a good looking cow, I've got PTAT, you
know, type and confirmation. But wait, there's
more. We're even breaking it down by red and
white and polled genetics, which are getting
more and more popular. Right. So our mission
today is to take apart all these genetic battles,
you know, metric by metric. Okay. And see what
the big picture is for all of us, you know. Sounds
like a plan. And to help us make sense of all
this data and what it means for the future of
our herds, we've got a resident expert here.
Well, I don't know about resident, but I'll do
my best. Always the humble one. Well, you know,
it's definitely a busy time in the genetics world.
What we see in this report is a real shakeup
in market share. Shows you how AI companies are
changing their game and maybe even how the whole
industry is shifting its priorities when it comes
to breeding. Okay, so you're saying it's not
just about the numbers themselves, but like...
But what's behind them, yeah. Gotcha. All right,
well, let's jump right into the thick of it and
talk about genomic TPI. Okay. Looks like there's
a new top dog in town. Sexing Technologies, they've
made a pretty massive jump going from 20 % of
the sire share back in June 2024 to a whopping
39 .5 % now in April 2025. Wow. That's a big
move, like going from the minors to the World
Series, you know. Yeah, that's a huge jump. So
what's the secret here? Is it just a couple of
superstar bulls or are they doing something different
in their program? Well, it's pretty unlikely
that it's just one or two bulls, you know. Right.
To nearly double their market share in that time
frame means they've got a really successful strategy
going on. It probably comes down to how they're
choosing their sires. Maybe they're focusing
on specific genetic markers or using some really
advanced tools to predict. genetic merit. And
they can also be really good at marketing, you
know, getting the word out to producers who are
really focused on TPI. Yeah, makes sense. Now,
on the other side of that coin, we've got, you
know, the companies that have been the big names
for a while, SelectSires and Cemex Alliance.
And they've both seen their shares drop. SelectSires
went from 32 % down to 21 .5%. And Cemex went
from 24 % down to 15%. That's a noticeable dip.
Yeah, it is. Is this just a case of, you know,
one company figuring things out better or are
there bigger trends happening in the industry
that are causing this shakeup? It's most likely
a combination of things. You know, more competition
for sure. Sexing technologies is on the rise
and there are others too. And maybe select sires
and semics are, you know, shifting their focus
a bit. Maybe they're putting more effort into
other traits or indexes that they think will
be important down the road. Interesting. Or maybe
they're concentrating on different. types of
breeders you know yeah different markets exactly
and let's not forget gnsx they're coming in at
eight percent definitely shows you how dynamic
things are becoming All right. So now let's talk
about the veterans, the proven TPI sires, the
bulls with daughters out there producing milk.
Right. So sexing technologies, they're still
gaining ground here up to 25 .5 % from 20%. But
select sires is holding pretty steady. And look
who's made a strong entrance. All to genetics
with 13 .5%. Okay. What's the story with these
bulls that have stood the test of time? Well,
you know, proven sires, they kind of show you
the long game. You know, it's not just about
the initial genomic predictions. It's about how
those predictions actually pan out with real
daughters in real herds. Right. So all the genetics
doing so well here tells you that they're not
just picking bulls with good genes on paper.
They're picking bulls whose daughters are actually
delivering the goods. you know, for TPI. Okay.
So it's about real world performance. Exactly.
Now it's interesting that the others category
still has a pretty big chunk of the proven TPI
market, 30%. Yeah. So if we look at the big picture.
you know, combine the genomic and proven TPI
numbers, sexing technologies, they're clearly
the leader going from 21 % to 32 .5%. Yep. Select
sires and simics, they're kind of neck and neck
for second place. Uh -huh. And autogenetics is
a solid contender. Definitely. So for someone
like you or me, you know, trying to decide which
bulls to use, what's the takeaway message from
all this TPI back and forth? Well, if your main
goal is to get the highest TPI you can, especially
if you're really into genomics, then sexing technology
looks like the way to go right now. But Selexaires
is still strong, especially with proven bulls.
And AltaGenetics is coming up fast in the total
TPI rankings. So there are good options out there.
So how do we choose? It depends. You know what's
important to you. Do you want the absolute highest
genomic potential or do you want the reassurance
of daughters that have already proven themselves?
Okay. So risk tolerance comes into play. Exactly.
And you know who you trust, which programs you've
had success with in the past. Makes sense. All
right. Now let's get down to brass tacks and
talk about the moneymaker net merit dollars.
Right. The bottom line. And folks, this is where
things get really interesting. Sexy Technologies,
they've basically pulled off a... a major heist
in the genomic NMMM arena. They've gone from
20 % to a mind -blowing 53 .5 % of the genomic
NM sire share. Wow. That's like winning the lottery
twice in a row. Yeah, that's an incredible jump.
So what's the secret formula here? Have they
found the magic recipe for breeding money -making
cows? Well, it seems like they've gotten really
good at pinpointing those sires that are predicted
to be the most profitable. Okay. And that huge
increase in market share tells you that they're
doing something right. They must be really focused
on those traits that are heavily weighted in
the NMM formula. Which are? High milk production,
good components like fat and protein, and really
important things like health and fertility. So
they're hitting all the key points. Exactly.
They've found what the market wants and they're
delivering it. Now on the flip side, Cemex, who
used to be a big name in NMO, has really taken
a hit down to just 8%. And meanwhile... Genenex
and ABS Global, they're coming in strong in this
genomic NM modal game. Okay. So what's this telling
us about what's important for profitability in
the industry these days? Well, it could be that
Cemex has shifted their focus a bit. Okay. Maybe
they're prioritizing other trades. Sexing Technologies
is still in the lead at 26 .5%. Okay. But get
this, ABS Global has made a huge comeback going
from practically nothing. to 16 .5%. Wow, that's
impressive. Altogenetics and GeningX are also
doing well here. Exactly. And it shows you that
while sexing technologies is good at finding
bulls with high predicted profitability, ABS
Global is doing a great job too. And not just
with genomics, but with proven sires as well.
So they're covering all the bases. Pretty much.
And Alta Genetics and GenadX are right up there,
too. So there are some solid options for breeders
who are really focused on the economic side.
Absolutely. Now, this report, it uses some pretty
colorful language to describe all this economic
competition. Oh. It talks about an economic theater
where sexing technologies pulled off a Death
Star -level takeover of the NMDA galaxy, reaching
40 % share. That's a 14 % jump. Okay. And ABS
Global is the rebellion surprise hero, blasting
to 11 .5%. I like it. Alta Genetics and GeneXX
are in a fragile alliance. A fragile alliance,
huh? That's what it says. Interesting. And even
the others, they're losing ground. Okay, so it's
getting pretty intense. Yeah, it is. So what
does all this economic consolidation mean for
us? Well... I think it highlights just how fierce
the competition is for those sires that are predicted
to be the most profitable. Right. And when a
few companies control a big chunk of the NM1
market, it does make you wonder about genetic
diversity. If everyone's chasing the same traits
to get that high NM1. it could lead to a narrower
range of variation in those traits. Okay, so
less diversity. Potentially, yeah. And that's
why it's more important than ever to look beyond
just the overall NMO number. Okay, so what should
we be looking at? You got to dig deeper. Look
at the individual traits that make up that NM
value. See what each company is emphasizing and
make sure it aligns with your farm's goals. So
it's about being more selective. Exactly. Don't
just chase the highest number. Find the genetics
that are the best fit for your operation. All
right, let's shift gears now and talk about P
-TAP. You know, type traits. Yeah. And it's like
we've entered a whole different world here. There's
a lot more diversity in the top players. Interesting.
CEMEX Alliance, they've actually gotten stronger
in genomic. PTAT Ascol is a new name to watch.
Okay. And surprisingly, Sexing Technologies has
actually lost ground here. And the others, they
still control almost half the market. Wow. So
why is PTAT such a different story compared to
TPI and NMO? Well, you know, PTAT, it's all about
the looks, the confirmation, those visual traits.
Right. And that often appeals to a different
type of breeder. Okay. Some people prioritize
short -ring success. Some want cows that just
look really good. And those traits, they don't
always line up with high TPI or NMO. So it's
a different set of priorities. Exactly. And the
fact that smaller companies and new players like
ASCOL are doing well in genomic PTAT shows you
that there's a real demand for that specialized
type genetics. So it's a niche market. In a way,
yeah. Now, the proven PTAT results, they're even
more surprising. Blonde and Sires Inc. has jumped
into the lead. And once again, sexing technologies
has taken a hit. And the others are still the
majority here. So what's going on with proven
type Sires? Yeah, what's the story there? Well,
proven PTAT, that's all about what those Sires
daughters actually look like. Right. The real
deal. Exactly. So blonde and sires being at the
top means they're producing daughters that are
consistently scoring high for type. OK, so they're
really focused on confirmation. Seems like it.
And the others still having such a big share
shows that a lot of breeders who care about type
are going to those smaller, more specialized
programs. So they're looking for that specific
expertise. Exactly. The report. It gets pretty
poetic when describing this P -Tat situation.
It calls it a confirmation galaxy's last stand,
with Blonde and Sires as the Luke Skywalker of
type traits fighting against the Empire's homogenizing
forces. That's pretty good. And it says the others
dominate with 52%, making P -Tat the hoath of
diversity. Okay, so it's a real battle for diversity
in type traits. Yeah, it's a big contrast to
what we're seeing with NM Hole. Right, right.
So as a breeder, what do you do? Do you have
to choose between high production and good looks?
Well, you know, it can feel like a balancing
act sometimes. You have to figure out what's
most important for your operation. Right. If
your main goal is milk production and profit,
then animal is probably going to be your focus.
But if show ring success or having cows that
just look great is important to you, then PTAT
is going to matter more. The good news is that
if you're focused on PTAT, there are a lot of
diverse options out there. So you have more choices.
Exactly. Okay, let's zoom in on some niche markets
now. All right. First up, red and white PTAC.
Okay. CEMEX Alliance, they've really solidified
their position here. Select sires and others
are still around, but CEMEX is the clear leader.
So what's behind their dominance in red and white
type? It looks like they've been really dedicated
to breeding high type red and white sires. Okay,
so it's a deliberate strategy. Yeah, and they've
clearly built a good reputation with breeders
who are looking for those red cows. With good
confirmation. Makes sense. Now, for another area
that's seen a big change, polled NMA. Right.
ABS Global has basically taken over this sector.
They've gone from 22 percent to a whopping 68
.5 percent. Wow. The report says it would make
even the Death Star envious. Uh -huh. Some X,
who is a player here, has practically disappeared.
OK, so ABS is the go to for polled and profitable.
Yeah, it looks like it. So what's the big deal
about ABS having this near monocle on polled
genetics that are also high NMLA? Well, it shows
you how much demand there is for polled genetics
these days. Nobody wants to dehorn calves anymore.
It's a welfare issue and it's just a hassle.
So polled is the future. It's looking that way.
And ABS has really positioned themselves as the
leader in that area. Okay. They're offering polled
sires that also have the genetics for high production
and profitability. So they're hitting all the
right notes. Yeah. They've really tapped into
what the market wants. All right. Let's step
back now and look at the overall sire landscape.
When we talk about total genomic sires, sexing
technologies is in the lead, but ABS, Global,
and Cemex are up there too. And the others still
represent a good chunk of the genomic sires available.
The report says sexing technologies might have
a strategic vulnerability here, meaning... Their
dominance in genomic share doesn't necessarily
mean they have the most individual sires to choose
from. I see. So what's the potential downside
there? Having a lot of high -ranking genomic
sires is great, but having a lot of different
genomic sires to choose from is also important.
Okay. So it's about options. Exactly. And while
sexing technologies might have the top bulls,
ABS Global and Cemex, they have a wider selection
overall. So that gives breeders more flexibility.
Right. You can avoid inbreeding. You can find
those specific combinations of traits that you're
looking for. And you can adapt to changes in
the market. You know, what's important today
might not be what's important tomorrow. Right.
So it's about having a deep bench. I like that
analogy. Now, if we look at proven sires, sexing
technology is at the top again. Alta Genetics
and Select Sires are right there with them. And
the interesting thing here is that the Others
category makes up a huge 45 .4%. Wow. That's
a lot of smaller AI companies. It is. The report
calls ABS Global and GeneX sleeper cells. Sleeper
cells. Yeah. And it highlights Blondin Sires
and CRV in their specific niches. Okay. So what
does all this tell us about? the proven sire
market yeah are these smaller players still relevant
in the age of genomics i think they definitely
are you know proven sires they offer that real
world proof right it's not just about predictions
it's about what those daughters are actually
doing out in the herds and there are a lot of
smaller companies that are doing a great job
with that absolutely and that's why the proven
sire market is still so diverse okay so what
about those sleeper cells well it sounds like
abs global and genex they might not have the
biggest overall share of proven sires but they
have a lot of bulls with Good daughters. So they're
ones to watch. I think so. And then you have
companies like Blonde and Sires focusing on PTAT.
And CRV, maybe they're strong in specific international
markets. Okay, so there's a lot happening under
the surface. Definitely. So when we add it all
up, Genomic and Proven Sires, Sexing Technologies
is the overall leader. But ADS Global has made
a big jump to second place with Cemex and Select
Sires following. And the others, they still have
a big piece of pie. Right. So what's the final
word on the Holstein genetics landscape as of
April 2025? Well, it definitely confirms that
sexing technologies is the big player, especially
when it comes to genomics. Right. And ABS Global,
they've made a big comeback. But the traditional
powerhouses like Select Sires and Cemex, they're
still strong contenders. Okay. And the fact that
the others are still so relevant shows you that.
There's a lot of value in those smaller companies.
So it's a more complex picture than just a few
big names dominating. Exactly. There's room for
everyone. Now, the report wraps up with some
pretty big statements about the future of breeding.
Let me quote a bit here. It says, the force of
progress is stronger than ever. And these changes
are heralding a new era in dairy breeding. It
talks about challenges and opportunities for
everyone, from the Jedi masters of dairy cattle
breeding to the Padawans of genomic matings.
I like that. The consolidation at the top might
seem daunting, but the report says even small
farms can make a difference. So what's the bottom
line here for the average dairy farmer trying
to make breeding decisions? Well, I think the
key message is that things are changing fast.
Right. You've got to stay informed. You've got
to understand what's driving these changes. And
what is driving these changes? Well, genomics
is a big part of it. And the focus on certain
traits, like polled. Okay. But even though the
big companies are getting bigger, There are still
a lot of options out there. So it's not all doom
and gloom. Not at all. You just have to be more
proactive. Proactive how? Do your research, set
clear breeding goals, and look at all the options,
not just the ones from the big names. So be more
strategic? The report ends with a quote from
Yoda. You know, do or do not, there is no try,
especially when building the perfect herd. Hmm.
Wise words. So in this new era of Holstein genetics,
what does... doing actually look like? Well,
it means taking all this information and using
it to your advantage. Got to know your herd,
know its strengths and weaknesses, then set goals
that make sense for your farm. And don't be afraid
to try different strategies and explore different
genetic lines. So be open -minded. Exactly. All
right, let's do a quick recap of the key takeaways
from this report. Okay. Sexing Tech's genomic
NMU dominance, plus 33 .5%, reshapes profit genetics.
ABS Global's pulled coup plus 46 .5%, creates
near -monopoly and horn -free sires. Etat remains
rebellion territory, 51 .7%, others favoring
specialty studs. Market consolidation crushes
small players. Others outside the top five shrinks
from 30 % and 12 .8%. Strategic breeding now
requires balancing genomic powerhouses versus
new specialists. So of all those points, which
one do you think is the most important for our
listeners to really take to heart? I think the
one about market consolidation and how the smaller
players are losing ground. is really crucial.
It doesn't mean there aren't choices out there,
but it does mean that the big companies are having
a bigger influence. So you've got to think about
where you're getting your genetics from and what
the long -term effects of this consolidation
might be on genetic diversity. So it's something
to keep an eye on. Definitely. And it says that
producers need to navigate this new world where
genomic prowess battles proven reliability. Okay.
So what do you think about that battle? Is it
really one against the other? You know, I don't
see it as a battle. Okay. I think both genomics
and proven reliability, they're both important
tools. So it's about using them together. Exactly.
Figure out what works best for you and your farm.
Right. and use both approaches to build the best
herd you can. All right. Well, that was a deep
dive into the world of Holstein genetics. It
was. Hopefully it's given all of you out there,
you know, the dairy farmers and industry folks,
a better sense of what's happening and what to
consider when you're making breeding decisions.
That's the goal. It's a fast moving world and
you got to stay informed. Absolutely. Now we've
covered a lot of ground here today, but I'm sure
you all have your own thoughts and experiences.
So what stood out to you? What are you seeing
in your own herds? Head over to the Bullvine
and let's keep this conversation going. Sounds
good. As you're navigating this new genetic landscape,
the big question isn't who's winning the stud
wars. It's how can you use these changes to build
a herd that's profitable, productive, and perfect
for your farm? That's the real challenge. Until
next time, good luck with your breeding decisions
and may the genetic force be with you. All right,
that's it for today. Thanks for listening. Take
care, everyone. And that's the state of our genetic
galaxy. Empires rising, rebels regrouping, and
dairy commanders facing tough choices. Whether
you're Team Jedi, Proven Sires, or Sith genomic
dominance, one thing's clear. The stud wars are
far from over. For the full battle maps and data,
visit thebullvine .com. Until next time, may
your breeding strategies be with the Force. This
is the Bullvine, signing off from the front lines
of Dairy Genetics.