WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Bullvine Podcast, your premier

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source for dairy industry news and insights.

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Today, we're breaking down the top five stories

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that shook the dairy world for the week ending

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March 29th, 2025. From biosecurity failures to

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market disruptions and genetic breakthroughs,

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This week has delivered critical developments

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every dairy producer needs to understand. Let's

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dive right in. Our first headline brings troubling

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news from Minnesota, where we're seeing history

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repeat idelf in the worst possible way. A dairy

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farm previously hit by H5N1 has been reinfected

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with the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus,

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raising serious questions about biosecurity protocols

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and their implementation. This reinfection at

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the same location highlights critical gaps in

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disease prevention strategies. The repeat occurrence

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suggests that initial remediation efforts were

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insufficient, potentially putting neighboring

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operations at continued risk. For dairy producers

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nationwide, this serves as a stark reminder that

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one -time responses to biosecurity breaches aren't

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enough. Continuous vigilance and improved protocols

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are essential. The Minnesota case should prompt

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every dairy operation to reassess their own biosecurity

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measures. Are your farm workers following proper

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decontamination procedures between barn areas?

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Have you implemented strict controls on visitor

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access? Does your operation have an updated emergency

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response plan ready for immediate activation?

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These questions aren't academic. They're now

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fundamental to your business survival. All right,

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everybody, welcome back to the bullvine. You

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are not going to believe this one. So we just

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got some breaking news and we had to talk about

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it. We have to dive into this because it's really,

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really concerning. H5N1 avian influenza has hit

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a Minnesota dairy farm again. Oh, wow. And, you

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know, we saw this last summer, same farm, Stearns

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County, Minnesota. 600 head herd. And it's like,

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oh, my gosh, you know, and as dairy producers

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ourselves, like this is top of mind for us. Like

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what is going on here? Are our current strategies

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working? Are our biosecurity measures actually

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doing what they're supposed to do? Because this

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kind of feels like a gut punch. Absolutely. I

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think it sends a chill down your spine, right?

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Because it really makes you wonder what went

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wrong. Was it just a random occurrence or is

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there a real weakness in our system here? And,

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you know, looking at some of the reports and

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expert analysis coming out, it really suggests

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that maybe this isn't just a simple migratory

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bird issue. There could be some real deeper systemic

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issues within our biosecurity and surveillance

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protocols that we need to address. And this particular

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case in Stearns County, Minnesota. The first

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one in Minnesota livestock since last summer.

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Since last summer on the same farm. On the same

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farm. And it really forces us to confront that

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maybe those initial efforts weren't enough to

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prevent that reinfection. Absolutely. So that's

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why we wanted to dive in deep into this Stearns

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County reinfection. Yeah. Let's kind of unpack

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this a little bit. Let's understand why this

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might have happened. You know, what are the holes

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in our current surveillance methods? Are biosecurity

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measures, you know, really as tight as we think

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they are? And we have to consider the economics

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of this. You know, this is hitting producers

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where it hurts. And we're also going to look

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at what other regions are doing differently,

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like the EU. You know, see if we can glean some

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insights, some practical advice, maybe even,

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that you can take back to your operation. Because

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the point here isn't just to report the news,

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but to actually help you protect your livelihood.

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Yeah, I think what's really concerning about

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this specific reinfection is that it really points

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to a potential flaw in our surveillance. Right.

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Because this farm in Stearns County was part

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of that network. You know, Minnesota has 1 ,600

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dairy herds undergoing routine monthly bulk milk

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sampling. Right. So it's doing its job. Right.

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The system detected the virus. However, it's

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the same farm. It's the same farm. Being hit

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again so soon. Right. So that raises a critical

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question. Is finding the virus after it's already

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present? a truly effective long -term strategy

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yeah it's like it's like finding out you have

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mastitis problems after your bulk tank at scc

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spikes you know exactly you know what i mean

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it's like okay well we identified it but how

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do we actually prevent it yeah right and so i

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know michael crusen from the minnesota board

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of animal health and he he mentioned you know

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stearns county's location as you know a migratory

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bird hot spot right and that makes sense on the

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surface you know but when you look at you know

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some of the other research out there particularly

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usda's findings you know from last year, their

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reports were pretty clear that movement of shared

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equipment between farms' flow of personnel, even

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having poultry or cats on dairy operations, were

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actually significant contributors to the spread

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of H5N1. So while wild birds might bring it to

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the area, it's our practices, it's our movements

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that are really contributing to that spread.

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And the fact that this is a repeat infection

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on the same farm makes you think, were the biosecurity

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measures that they implemented after that first

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round really enough? Were they thorough enough?

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Yeah. Did they consider all avenues, all those

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different ways that this thing can spread? Exactly.

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So it really brings us to this question of biosecurity.

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We've got the protocols in place. We've even

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invested in them. But is this one of those things

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where biosecurity has become more about compliance,

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checking the boxes? you know, than actually having

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deeply ingrained, rigorously enforced, you know,

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practices. So it's not enough to just have a

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written protocol, right? Right. It needs to be

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meticulously followed by every single person,

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every single day. Every single day. And, you

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know, all those pathways, all those vulnerabilities

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need to be consistently addressed. And, you know,

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there are programs that offer financial help

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for biosecurity upgrades and things like that.

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But they're only part of the solution. Right.

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If that doesn't translate into a fundamental

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shift in behavior and a real culture of vigilance

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on the farm, then you're still at a really high

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risk. And I think that's what we're seeing play

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out here. Yeah, absolutely. And, you know. For

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those producers who do find themselves facing

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an outbreak like this farm in Stearns County,

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it triggers the quarantine period. And we're

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talking at least 30 days of no animal movement,

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you know, stringent protocols for handling manure

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waste milk. Right. And while it's essential to

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contain the virus, the financial hit is huge.

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It's significant, right? Yeah. And it's not just

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the immediate loss of milk revenue. Think about

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the logistics of disposing of that unsaleable

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milk. Maybe having to invest in specialized equipment

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like pasteurizers to handle that permits for

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even routine operations become more complicated.

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So it's a huge burden when you're already working

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with tight margins. Absolutely. And then you

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add in the, you know, the USDA's ELA program,

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you know, that emergency assistance program,

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and it's meant to help offset some of these losses.

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Right. But there's a 60 day ownership requirement

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for livestock to be eligible. Oh, wow. So if

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you're a new producer or you've recently expanded

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your herd. you might not even be eligible for

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that assistance. It's a tough situation to be

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in. It's a tough one. Yeah. And it really kind

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of points to the fact that, you know, these support

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mechanisms, while well -intentioned, you know,

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may not always align with the realities of how

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dairy farming works today. Absolutely. And that

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60 -day clause, you know, it could be a real

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roadblock for producers who need that help. Right.

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And even when ELIP... does provide compensation

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the way they calculate it, it might not capture

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the full extent of the disruption and the long

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-term effects on the herd's health and productivity.

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Yeah. You know, and speaking of kind of, you

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know, support and, you know, surveillance and

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all that, you know, we've talked about this bulk

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milk testing program being implemented in Minnesota

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and a few other states. On the one hand, it's

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great. You know, it gives us an early warning

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system, but this reinfection on a farm that's

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actively participating in the program makes you

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wonder how effective is it as a preventative

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measure? It's a good question. And I think what's

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important to remember about bulk milk testing

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is that it's really designed to detect the virus.

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Once it's already gained a foothold in the herd.

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Right. So you're not catching those very first

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infections. Right. You're letting the virus spread

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to a certain level before it even shows up in

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the bulk tank. Right. And then you need further

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testing to confirm. Right. There's delays built

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into the system. And crucially, as the USDA pointed

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out, this testing doesn't address those human

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factors. The human element. Right. The movement

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of people and equipment, which seem to be big

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drivers of transmission. Huge. So it's a valuable

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tool. Yeah. But it's not the be all end all.

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It's not the whole picture. It's not the whole

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picture. Yeah, it's like identifying the smoke,

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but not necessarily stopping the sparks that

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started the fire. Exactly. You know, and while

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we're talking about all this, we can't forget

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the human cost of this. Right. You know, officials

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might say, oh, you know, the risk to the general

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public is low. But for the farmers and the employees

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who are on those front lines. Absolutely. Every

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day, this is their reality. It's their livelihood.

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Yeah. And we've seen the CDC reports 70 confirmed

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human cases of H5N1 in the U .S. Yeah. Including

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dairy workers, you know, in Wisconsin and Iowa.

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Scary. So this is a real tangible risk to our

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community. And it's not just the infection itself,

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right? The practical challenges of consistently

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using PPE, you know, those N95 masks, gloves,

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eye protection, all that. Sometimes those things

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are hard to come by. Absolutely. And it's not

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always easy to use them properly for long hours.

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Every day. Every day. Yeah. And then there's

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the mental and emotional toll. You know, the

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constant worry, the anxiety, the potential for

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burnout. Absolutely. And then you layer on the

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economic pressures. Yeah. force really difficult

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decisions. You know, if processors start refusing

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milk from farms under quarantine, then producers

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are left with having to dispose of it, which

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just adds to their losses. And, you know, there

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was this quote from a farmer in Stearns County

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that really stuck with me. They said, they feel

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stuck between birds and bureaucrats. Wow. Yeah.

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And I think that just perfectly captures the

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frustration of being caught in this really difficult

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situation. It's a feeling of powerlessness. Yeah.

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Yeah. And then you add up all the financial hits.

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Right. You know, lost production, costs of quarantine,

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potential ineligibility for ELAB. Right. And

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then the possibility of insurance premiums going

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up. Oh, yeah. If H5N1 becomes a recurring issue.

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Right. This could be catastrophic for the dairy

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industry. Absolutely. And, you know, research

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from places like C .I. painting a pretty stark

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picture. Yeah. They're estimating a potential

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20 % reduction in milk production. Per cow. Per

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cow during an outbreak. Wow. And that could lead

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to losses exceeding $737 ,000 per farm. Yeah.

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And we talked about ELAV as a potential safety

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net, but even their example of a 500 cow herd

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receiving that $900 ,000 in reimbursement, it

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might not cover everything. It might not be enough.

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And that's a scary thought. Yeah. And this could

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easily shift from being an isolated incident

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to a chronic economic vulnerability for the entire

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industry, which is a huge concern when margins

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are already so tight. Absolutely. So it really

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makes you wonder, are there better approaches

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out there? Yeah. Are other regions doing things

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differently that we could learn from? And, you

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know, the reports that we've seen point to the

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EU strategy as being a lot more comprehensive.

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Interesting. Than what we're doing. Yeah. And

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what's really interesting about the EU's approach

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is that it's very proactive. Yeah. And multifaceted.

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Okay. So they're not just reacting to outbreaks.

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They're trying to prevent them from happening

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in the first place. Right. So they often implement.

00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:19.059
Mandatory biosecurity zones. Oh, wow. Creating

00:12:19.059 --> 00:12:21.919
clear separation between different types of livestock

00:12:21.919 --> 00:12:25.360
operations. Okay. Particularly poultry and dairy.

00:12:25.620 --> 00:12:29.340
Okay. They also prioritize wild bird deterrence.

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Interesting. Like netting feed storage areas,

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eliminating standing water. Right. Things that

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attract wild birds. And then they use really

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detailed genetic testing. Wow. To trace specific

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strains of the virus. Okay. Which helps them

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differentiate between that initial introduction

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from wild birds and later spread due to on -farm

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practices or human interactions. Right. So they're

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really getting to the bottom of how these things

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are spreading. So they're not just throwing everything

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at the wall and seeing what sticks they're really

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trying to. They're being very targeted and proactive.

00:12:59.340 --> 00:13:01.500
Be strategic. Yeah. Yeah. And that seems to be

00:13:01.500 --> 00:13:05.070
a big difference from the more reactive. test

00:13:05.070 --> 00:13:06.830
and respond approach that we've seen here in

00:13:06.830 --> 00:13:08.730
the U .S. Yeah. So let's bring this all home

00:13:08.730 --> 00:13:10.690
for you, the listener. Okay. We've looked at

00:13:10.690 --> 00:13:13.240
this reinfection in Stearns County. Yeah. The

00:13:13.240 --> 00:13:15.600
limitations of our current surveillance. Right.

00:13:15.679 --> 00:13:18.820
Real questions about how biosecurity is being

00:13:18.820 --> 00:13:21.220
implemented on the ground. Right. The economic

00:13:21.220 --> 00:13:23.960
burdens that this is placing on producers. Yeah.

00:13:24.019 --> 00:13:27.120
The human cost. Absolutely. And then what other

00:13:27.120 --> 00:13:29.419
regions are doing differently. Right. So what

00:13:29.419 --> 00:13:32.299
are some key takeaways that you as a dairy producer

00:13:32.299 --> 00:13:35.179
need to be thinking about right now? So first

00:13:35.179 --> 00:13:37.940
off, it's pretty clear that. Relying solely on

00:13:37.940 --> 00:13:41.759
bulk milk testing is not a foolproof prevention

00:13:41.759 --> 00:13:44.279
strategy. It's a great tool for identification.

00:13:44.840 --> 00:13:46.539
It's a piece of the puzzle. It's a piece of the

00:13:46.539 --> 00:13:50.600
puzzle. But this reinfection on a farm that was

00:13:50.600 --> 00:13:52.960
in that surveillance network really highlights

00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:55.980
that. Secondly, you know, having biosecurity

00:13:55.980 --> 00:13:58.039
protocols on paper, that's great. It's a good

00:13:58.039 --> 00:14:00.960
start. It's a good start. But the real protection

00:14:00.960 --> 00:14:04.240
comes from rigorously and consistently implementing

00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:06.799
them. By everyone. By everyone involved in the

00:14:06.799 --> 00:14:09.220
operation. Yeah. And again, this reinfection

00:14:09.220 --> 00:14:11.659
raises some serious questions about how effective

00:14:11.659 --> 00:14:14.080
those practices were following the initial outbreak.

00:14:14.240 --> 00:14:17.279
Right. Third, you know, we can't oversimplify

00:14:17.279 --> 00:14:19.500
things and just blame migratory birds. Right.

00:14:19.620 --> 00:14:21.639
Human factors like the movement of equipment

00:14:21.639 --> 00:14:24.600
and people between farms play a huge role. Yeah.

00:14:24.620 --> 00:14:27.379
The USDA report was very clear on that. Absolutely.

00:14:27.460 --> 00:14:30.740
And fourth, while quarantine is necessary, it

00:14:30.740 --> 00:14:33.620
puts a huge financial strain on producers. Absolutely.

00:14:34.679 --> 00:14:37.299
Programs like ELIP with their eligibility requirements

00:14:37.299 --> 00:14:39.960
may not be accessible to everyone who needs help.

00:14:40.019 --> 00:14:42.379
Right. And finally, you know, the EU's proactive

00:14:42.379 --> 00:14:45.759
and multifaceted approach to biosecurity offers

00:14:45.759 --> 00:14:48.320
some really valuable lessons. Absolutely. It

00:14:48.320 --> 00:14:51.240
suggests that a more preventative and comprehensive

00:14:51.240 --> 00:14:54.419
strategy might be the way to go. Yeah. And we

00:14:54.419 --> 00:14:56.980
can't forget the economic realities here. You

00:14:56.980 --> 00:14:59.259
know, we're not just talking about managing an

00:14:59.259 --> 00:15:01.860
outbreak. Yeah. This has the potential to be

00:15:01.860 --> 00:15:04.480
a persistent threat. To the dairy industry. And

00:15:04.480 --> 00:15:07.320
that means, you know, insurance premiums could

00:15:07.320 --> 00:15:10.639
go up further squeezing those already thin margins.

00:15:10.980 --> 00:15:13.720
Yeah. And those projections from CIDRAP about

00:15:13.720 --> 00:15:17.620
significant milk losses and the potential cost

00:15:17.620 --> 00:15:21.179
per farm are really concerning. They are. And,

00:15:21.360 --> 00:15:24.769
you know, as we saw with the ELAP example. Even

00:15:24.769 --> 00:15:26.870
those large reimbursement figures might not be

00:15:26.870 --> 00:15:28.950
enough to cover everything. Right. It's not the

00:15:28.950 --> 00:15:30.629
whole picture. It's not the whole picture. And

00:15:30.629 --> 00:15:32.950
we have to remember the human side of this, too.

00:15:33.129 --> 00:15:35.830
Absolutely. The risks to workers. The stress,

00:15:36.070 --> 00:15:39.450
the challenges of using PPE effectively. And,

00:15:39.450 --> 00:15:42.970
you know, we can't forget those 70 reported human

00:15:42.970 --> 00:15:45.230
cases in the U .S. Yeah. Including those dairy

00:15:45.230 --> 00:15:47.250
workers. Including dairy workers. It's a real

00:15:47.250 --> 00:15:49.529
risk. And that farmer who said they felt stuck

00:15:49.529 --> 00:15:52.909
between. birds and bureaucrats. Yeah. It's powerful

00:15:52.909 --> 00:15:55.350
and it really highlights the feeling of so many

00:15:55.350 --> 00:15:57.690
producers out there. It does. So as we wrap up

00:15:57.690 --> 00:16:00.649
this urgent look at this situation, you know,

00:16:00.649 --> 00:16:03.110
this reinfection in Minnesota, it's a wake up

00:16:03.110 --> 00:16:06.470
call. You know, hoping for the best isn't a strategy.

00:16:06.629 --> 00:16:08.950
Right. What concrete steps are you going to take

00:16:08.950 --> 00:16:12.210
starting today to really evaluate and strengthen

00:16:12.210 --> 00:16:15.230
your biosecurity? Absolutely. Go beyond the checklist.

00:16:15.450 --> 00:16:18.169
Yeah. And build real resilience into your operation.

00:16:18.549 --> 00:16:21.529
It's time to get proactive. It is. We need to

00:16:21.529 --> 00:16:23.590
think long term about this. Yeah. And advocate

00:16:23.590 --> 00:16:26.570
for more proactive, effective measures, both

00:16:26.570 --> 00:16:28.769
on our farms. Right. And from our regulatory

00:16:28.769 --> 00:16:31.129
agency. It's a shared responsibility. It is.

00:16:31.149 --> 00:16:34.370
And speaking of H5N1. things are heating up globally.

00:16:34.950 --> 00:16:38.210
An outbreak in UK sheep has revealed a shocking

00:16:38.210 --> 00:16:41.250
link to deadly mastitis that could ripple through

00:16:41.250 --> 00:16:44.090
global dairy herds. This is a wake -up call,

00:16:44.169 --> 00:16:46.529
folks, and it's one we can't afford to hit snooze

00:16:46.529 --> 00:16:49.350
on. Here's what you need to know to protect your

00:16:49.350 --> 00:16:52.509
operation. We've got some breaking news here

00:16:52.509 --> 00:16:54.409
out of the UK that's got us pretty concerned,

00:16:54.450 --> 00:16:56.049
and we wanted to bring it to everyone in the

00:16:56.049 --> 00:16:58.370
dairy industry right away. Yeah, this is one

00:16:58.370 --> 00:17:01.539
you don't want to miss. It's a big one. And frankly,

00:17:01.659 --> 00:17:03.600
it's kind of got us on edge here a little bit

00:17:03.600 --> 00:17:05.619
in the bullvine newsroom. I think on edge is

00:17:05.619 --> 00:17:07.140
a good way to put it. So we're going to do a

00:17:07.140 --> 00:17:10.259
deep dive right now and try to unpack exactly

00:17:10.259 --> 00:17:12.339
what's happening and more importantly, what it

00:17:12.339 --> 00:17:15.339
means for you and your operation. Exactly. We're

00:17:15.339 --> 00:17:17.019
going to cut through the noise and get right

00:17:17.019 --> 00:17:19.240
to the actionable stuff so you can protect your

00:17:19.240 --> 00:17:21.559
dairy. That's what we're here for. So what we're

00:17:21.559 --> 00:17:24.599
looking at is the first ever detection of H5N1

00:17:24.599 --> 00:17:29.160
in a sheep in the UK. And this sheep was exhibiting

00:17:29.160 --> 00:17:32.460
mastitis. Yeah. And that that mastitis connection,

00:17:32.640 --> 00:17:34.720
that's what has everyone on edge. Right. And,

00:17:34.799 --> 00:17:36.880
you know, we're already dealing with H5N1 in

00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:40.500
cows. But why is this sheep case so alarming?

00:17:40.640 --> 00:17:42.500
Why should our listeners be worried about this?

00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:44.680
Well, I think what's really got people's attention

00:17:44.680 --> 00:17:47.980
is that the udder seems to be a primary target

00:17:47.980 --> 00:17:50.279
for this particular strain of avian influenza.

00:17:51.150 --> 00:17:52.950
We've seen a lot of data pointing in this direction,

00:17:53.049 --> 00:17:54.950
especially with the U .S. outbreaks. And now

00:17:54.950 --> 00:17:58.009
this U .K. case really solidifies it. So are

00:17:58.009 --> 00:17:59.769
you saying it's not just a respiratory virus

00:17:59.769 --> 00:18:01.750
that happens to show up in milk? It's actually

00:18:01.750 --> 00:18:04.569
going after the udder itself. That's exactly

00:18:04.569 --> 00:18:06.710
what it looks like. And we're not just talking

00:18:06.710 --> 00:18:08.809
about anecdotal evidence here. There's some pretty

00:18:08.809 --> 00:18:10.990
compelling research backing this up. OK, like

00:18:10.990 --> 00:18:13.289
what? Well, for instance, there was a study published

00:18:13.289 --> 00:18:16.250
in the Journal of Dairy Science back in May 2024.

00:18:16.650 --> 00:18:22.980
OK. It showed that the H5N1 clade. 2 .3 .4 .4b.

00:18:23.349 --> 00:18:25.549
Wow, that's a mouthful. Yeah. Well, that's the

00:18:25.549 --> 00:18:27.069
one we're dealing with right now, and it seems

00:18:27.069 --> 00:18:30.250
to have a much stronger affinity for bovine mammary

00:18:30.250 --> 00:18:33.789
epithelial cells. Meaning? Meaning it binds more

00:18:33.789 --> 00:18:35.970
easily to the cells in the udder compared to,

00:18:36.029 --> 00:18:37.849
say, the cells in the lungs. Okay, so it's like

00:18:37.849 --> 00:18:40.390
it has a better key to unlock and infect the

00:18:40.390 --> 00:18:42.869
udder cells? Exactly. The study actually found

00:18:42.869 --> 00:18:45.230
that its binding efficiency to udder cells was

00:18:45.230 --> 00:18:49.170
300 % higher than to lung tissue. 300 % higher.

00:18:49.269 --> 00:18:52.109
Wow, that's significant. It is. And I think that

00:18:52.109 --> 00:18:54.809
really helps explain the huge milk production

00:18:54.809 --> 00:18:57.230
losses we've seen on some of those U .S. dairy

00:18:57.230 --> 00:19:00.650
farms hit by H5N1. Right. I remember reading

00:19:00.650 --> 00:19:03.809
those USDA outbreak reports and seeing those

00:19:03.809 --> 00:19:06.730
numbers 40 percent to 90 percent losses in milk

00:19:06.730 --> 00:19:09.410
production. That's devastating. Absolutely. And

00:19:09.410 --> 00:19:11.549
this research helps explain why those drops are

00:19:11.549 --> 00:19:14.269
so dramatic. It's not just a secondary symptom

00:19:14.269 --> 00:19:16.730
of the virus. It's the virus directly attacking.

00:19:17.319 --> 00:19:19.180
the milk -producing cells. You know, it makes

00:19:19.180 --> 00:19:21.339
that story we covered in Horde's Dairyman about

00:19:21.339 --> 00:19:23.940
that Texas dairy farmer Hank Grotech even more

00:19:23.940 --> 00:19:26.519
relevant. Oh yeah, Hank's story. Yeah, he talked

00:19:26.519 --> 00:19:27.940
about how they initially thought it was just

00:19:27.940 --> 00:19:30.079
regular mastitis until the authorities got involved.

00:19:30.359 --> 00:19:32.660
It just goes to show how our whole understanding

00:19:32.660 --> 00:19:35.119
of mastitis needs to change. We can't just assume

00:19:35.119 --> 00:19:37.119
it's a bacterial infection anymore. Exactly.

00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:39.319
We've got this whole other dimension to consider

00:19:39.319 --> 00:19:41.200
now. And that brings up a really critical question

00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:44.579
for all our listeners out there. Are your biosecurity

00:19:44.579 --> 00:19:47.160
protocols strong enough to handle a virus that's

00:19:47.160 --> 00:19:50.180
specifically targeting the udder like this? It's

00:19:50.180 --> 00:19:52.279
a good question. And the answer might be a little

00:19:52.279 --> 00:19:54.359
unsettling based on what we've seen in the U

00:19:54.359 --> 00:19:57.400
.S. Right. We've got some hard data from the

00:19:57.400 --> 00:20:00.059
U .S. outbreaks that really highlight some serious

00:20:00.059 --> 00:20:03.960
vulnerabilities. The USDA report from June 2025

00:20:03.960 --> 00:20:06.339
was pretty eye -opening. Oh, yeah. That one was

00:20:06.339 --> 00:20:09.339
a wake -up call. The fact that 63 % of the infected

00:20:09.339 --> 00:20:12.809
U .S. farms had poultry on site. That's a huge

00:20:12.809 --> 00:20:14.789
red flag. It definitely suggests some pretty

00:20:14.789 --> 00:20:18.089
big gaps in our biosecurity practices. But what

00:20:18.089 --> 00:20:20.430
is it about having poultry and dairy cattle in

00:20:20.430 --> 00:20:22.529
the same place that's so risky? Well, it's not

00:20:22.529 --> 00:20:24.390
just about the birds being nearby. It's about

00:20:24.390 --> 00:20:26.769
all the potential pathways for transmission that

00:20:26.769 --> 00:20:28.730
open up when you've got different species sharing

00:20:28.730 --> 00:20:30.910
the same environment. So shared feed sources.

00:20:31.150 --> 00:20:33.940
Right. Airflow in the barns, even manure management.

00:20:34.220 --> 00:20:37.000
Exactly. All those things become potential routes

00:20:37.000 --> 00:20:39.019
for the virus to spread. It's not just casual

00:20:39.019 --> 00:20:41.160
contact. It's the whole farm environment that

00:20:41.160 --> 00:20:43.140
could be contaminated. And we're not even talking

00:20:43.140 --> 00:20:45.720
about those direct biosecurity lapses that the

00:20:45.720 --> 00:20:48.180
USDA report highlighted. Oh, right. The deadly

00:20:48.180 --> 00:20:50.660
mistakes. Some of them were just mind -boggling,

00:20:50.660 --> 00:20:52.720
like using the same equipment for both poultry

00:20:52.720 --> 00:20:55.759
and cattle. Which is a direct violation of NMPF

00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:59.680
Code 4 .7a, by the way. Exactly. The NMPF has

00:20:59.680 --> 00:21:02.000
got some pretty clear standards for a reason.

00:21:02.200 --> 00:21:04.420
And then you've got people skipping boot dips

00:21:04.420 --> 00:21:07.380
at the parlor entrances. Yeah, that always seems

00:21:07.380 --> 00:21:09.180
like such a small thing, but it can make a big

00:21:09.180 --> 00:21:11.220
difference. Absolutely. And then there's this

00:21:11.220 --> 00:21:15.140
whole idea that freestyle equals flu -free, which

00:21:15.140 --> 00:21:17.180
is just not true. The virus can still spread

00:21:17.180 --> 00:21:19.079
through the air and through contact. Right. It's

00:21:19.079 --> 00:21:21.099
almost like we've been so focused on bacterial

00:21:21.099 --> 00:21:23.589
infections that... We're not mentally prepared

00:21:23.589 --> 00:21:26.089
for a highly contagious virus that can jump between

00:21:26.089 --> 00:21:27.970
species. And that's where that whole argument

00:21:27.970 --> 00:21:30.650
about the regulators being behind the curve comes

00:21:30.650 --> 00:21:33.309
in. Exactly. The bovine's been pretty vocal about

00:21:33.309 --> 00:21:35.490
that. We have. We've been pushing for more proactive

00:21:35.490 --> 00:21:39.589
surveillance. bulk tank milk PCR testing twice

00:21:39.589 --> 00:21:42.430
a week. Using those FDA -approved systems like

00:21:42.430 --> 00:21:44.529
UtterSafe. Right, because we need to be ahead

00:21:44.529 --> 00:21:46.730
of this thing, not just reacting to it. Early

00:21:46.730 --> 00:21:49.589
detection is absolutely critical. So we've got

00:21:49.589 --> 00:21:51.809
this UK sheep case, the research showing the

00:21:51.809 --> 00:21:55.730
virus loves utter cells, the biosecurity breakdowns

00:21:55.730 --> 00:21:58.750
in the US, and the need for better testing. It's

00:21:58.750 --> 00:22:00.509
a lot to take in. It is. It's a pretty serious

00:22:00.509 --> 00:22:02.750
situation. So what does all this mean for our

00:22:02.750 --> 00:22:04.740
listeners right now? What should they be doing

00:22:04.740 --> 00:22:06.980
today to protect their farms? Well, we've talked

00:22:06.980 --> 00:22:08.940
about a three -step survival plan, and I think

00:22:08.940 --> 00:22:11.059
that's a good place to start. Okay, so step one

00:22:11.059 --> 00:22:14.920
is Mastitis Monitoring 2 .0. What does that entail?

00:22:15.160 --> 00:22:18.180
It's about taking mastitis monitoring to a whole

00:22:18.180 --> 00:22:21.660
new level. We're talking daily California mastitis

00:22:21.660 --> 00:22:24.960
tests during every milking. So CMTs every day.

00:22:25.079 --> 00:22:27.539
Every single day. That's the only way to catch

00:22:27.539 --> 00:22:29.859
any subtle changes in milk quality that might

00:22:29.859 --> 00:22:32.039
be a really warning sign. And on top of that,

00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:34.299
we're also recommending the regular use of those

00:22:34.299 --> 00:22:37.400
lactic acid tea dips. Right. There was a study

00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:39.740
in the Journal of Dairy Science in April 2024

00:22:39.740 --> 00:22:42.700
that showed lactic acid dips can reduce viral

00:22:42.700 --> 00:22:46.960
load by 78%. 78%. That's pretty impressive. It

00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:48.859
is. It's a simple step, but it can make a huge

00:22:48.859 --> 00:22:52.180
difference. Okay, so daily CMTs and lactic acid

00:22:52.180 --> 00:22:55.460
dips. That's step one. What about step two, the

00:22:55.460 --> 00:22:58.059
lockdown protocols? This one is all about minimizing

00:22:58.059 --> 00:23:01.079
the risk of cross -species transmission. And

00:23:01.079 --> 00:23:03.240
we're not mincing words here. The strongest recommendation

00:23:03.240 --> 00:23:05.740
we can make is a complete ban on all poultry

00:23:05.740 --> 00:23:08.240
from dairy facilities. And when we say all, we

00:23:08.240 --> 00:23:10.299
mean all backyard chickens, everything. Exactly.

00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:14.279
The risk is just too high. We also strongly advise

00:23:14.279 --> 00:23:17.259
looking into UVC lighting for your milk parlors.

00:23:17.359 --> 00:23:20.160
UVC lighting? Yeah. There was some research published

00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:23.180
in Applied Microbiology in 2025 showing that

00:23:23.180 --> 00:23:26.440
UVC light can neutralize almost all the H5N1

00:23:26.440 --> 00:23:29.160
virus in just eight seconds. Wow, that's pretty

00:23:29.160 --> 00:23:31.519
amazing. It is. It's a really effective way to

00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:33.900
reduce airborne transmission. So banning all

00:23:33.900 --> 00:23:37.349
poultry and installing UVC lighting. Those are

00:23:37.349 --> 00:23:39.589
some pretty big changes. They are. But when you

00:23:39.589 --> 00:23:41.650
consider the alternative widespread outbreaks,

00:23:41.930 --> 00:23:44.690
massive milk losses and potential animal deaths,

00:23:44.910 --> 00:23:47.670
it's really not that drastic. It's about protecting

00:23:47.670 --> 00:23:50.289
your livelihood. Exactly. And it's not just about

00:23:50.289 --> 00:23:52.910
the cows and the milk either. We have to think

00:23:52.910 --> 00:23:55.309
about the consumer too. Right. Consumer confidence

00:23:55.309 --> 00:23:57.829
is a huge factor here. The progressive dairy

00:23:57.829 --> 00:23:59.990
poll showed that one in three consumers are now

00:23:59.990 --> 00:24:01.950
questioning the safety of milk. That's a big

00:24:01.950 --> 00:24:04.730
problem for the industry. It is. Misinformation

00:24:04.730 --> 00:24:07.670
spreads like wildfire, and we need to be proactive

00:24:07.670 --> 00:24:10.049
about maintaining consumer trust. Absolutely.

00:24:10.289 --> 00:24:12.750
We need to be radically transparent. Okay, so

00:24:12.750 --> 00:24:15.130
what does radical transparency actually look

00:24:15.130 --> 00:24:17.690
like on a dairy farm? Oh, for starters, you could

00:24:17.690 --> 00:24:20.089
live stream your milk testing procedures online.

00:24:20.789 --> 00:24:23.549
Let consumers see for themselves how seriously

00:24:23.549 --> 00:24:26.380
you're taking this. Interesting. You could also

00:24:26.380 --> 00:24:29.799
create biosecurity report cards outlining all

00:24:29.799 --> 00:24:32.000
the protocols you have in place and make those

00:24:32.000 --> 00:24:33.980
available to your customers. So they can see

00:24:33.980 --> 00:24:36.079
exactly what you're doing to keep their milk

00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:38.940
safe. Exactly. And you could even put QR codes

00:24:38.940 --> 00:24:42.500
on your milk cartons that link to USDA safety

00:24:42.500 --> 00:24:45.039
data and information about your farm's biosecurity

00:24:45.039 --> 00:24:47.799
practices. So consumers can scan the code and

00:24:47.799 --> 00:24:50.019
get all the details. Right. It's about being

00:24:50.019 --> 00:24:52.619
open and proactive. Those are some really good

00:24:52.619 --> 00:24:54.880
ideas. And while we're talking about being proactive,

00:24:55.200 --> 00:24:57.079
we need to address the financial side of things

00:24:57.079 --> 00:24:59.559
too. That's right. The financial stakes are incredibly

00:24:59.559 --> 00:25:02.180
high here. I remember that warning from Dr. Lorna

00:25:02.180 --> 00:25:05.059
Bendixson, the Wisconsin vet. Oh yeah, Dr. Bendixson

00:25:05.059 --> 00:25:07.420
doesn't sugarcoat things. She said that if an

00:25:07.420 --> 00:25:10.519
infected ewe goes undetected, a dairy farm could

00:25:10.519 --> 00:25:13.700
lose over $200 ,000 before breakfast. And she's

00:25:13.700 --> 00:25:16.869
not exaggerating. The losses from milk production

00:25:16.869 --> 00:25:19.410
animal deaths and the cost of implementing all

00:25:19.410 --> 00:25:21.910
these biosecurity measures can add up fast. It's

00:25:21.910 --> 00:25:24.789
a scary thought. It is. But it also underscores

00:25:24.789 --> 00:25:27.349
why early detection and strong biosecurity are

00:25:27.349 --> 00:25:30.009
so critical. So before we wrap up, can you just

00:25:30.009 --> 00:25:32.410
give our listeners the key takeaways from our

00:25:32.410 --> 00:25:35.490
deep dive today? Sure. The main point is that

00:25:35.490 --> 00:25:39.380
this H5N1 situation is very serious. The connection

00:25:39.380 --> 00:25:41.799
to mastitis means we need to completely rethink

00:25:41.799 --> 00:25:45.619
how we monitor udder health. Daily CMTs, lactic

00:25:45.619 --> 00:25:48.980
acid tea dips. Right. And biosecurity has to

00:25:48.980 --> 00:25:51.380
be top priority. We need to eliminate contact

00:25:51.380 --> 00:25:54.000
between poultry and dairy cattle and seriously

00:25:54.000 --> 00:25:56.660
consider investing in technologies like UVC lighting.

00:25:56.920 --> 00:25:59.220
And we can't forget about the consumer. Transparency

00:25:59.220 --> 00:26:01.180
is key. We need to be open about our practices

00:26:01.180 --> 00:26:03.039
and show consumers that we're doing everything

00:26:03.039 --> 00:26:05.599
we can to keep their milk safe. Dr. Bendixson

00:26:05.599 --> 00:26:08.670
called this DEFCON 1 for dairy. And I think she's

00:26:08.670 --> 00:26:10.609
right. This is not the time to be complacent.

00:26:10.630 --> 00:26:13.250
We need to act now. Absolutely. So here's a final

00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:15.029
thought for everyone listening. Think about how

00:26:15.029 --> 00:26:17.269
all this might change the future of dairy farming.

00:26:17.390 --> 00:26:20.349
How will this outbreak and this virus shape our

00:26:20.349 --> 00:26:23.130
industry going forward? What will consumers expect

00:26:23.130 --> 00:26:25.970
from us in terms of safety and transparency?

00:26:26.869 --> 00:26:29.309
These are big questions and we all need to be

00:26:29.309 --> 00:26:31.250
thinking about the answers. This isn't just about

00:26:31.250 --> 00:26:33.150
getting through the current outbreak. This could

00:26:33.150 --> 00:26:35.650
fundamentally change the dairy landscape forever.

00:26:35.990 --> 00:26:38.680
It's a lot to process. But we hope this deep

00:26:38.680 --> 00:26:40.440
dive has given our listeners the information

00:26:40.440 --> 00:26:42.660
they need to navigate these challenging times.

00:26:42.880 --> 00:26:46.279
Stay vigilant, stay informed, and stay safe.

00:26:46.599 --> 00:26:48.880
And as always, thanks for joining us here at

00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:50.859
The Bullvine. We'll keep you updated as this

00:26:50.859 --> 00:26:52.500
story develops. We'll be right here with you

00:26:52.500 --> 00:26:54.759
every step of the way. Let's shift gears to some

00:26:54.759 --> 00:26:58.059
groundbreaking news. The genetic revolution sweeping

00:26:58.059 --> 00:27:01.019
through U .S. dairies is shattering records for

00:27:01.019 --> 00:27:04.690
milk components like butterfat and protein. Genomics

00:27:04.690 --> 00:27:07.009
are redefining what's possible for milk production,

00:27:07.289 --> 00:27:10.329
but the real question is, are your herds ready

00:27:10.329 --> 00:27:13.569
for the future? Let's unpack the details. Okay,

00:27:13.609 --> 00:27:16.130
folks, gather around, because today we're going

00:27:16.130 --> 00:27:19.490
to talk about milk. And not just any milk, the

00:27:19.490 --> 00:27:21.150
kind of milk that's going to make you rethink

00:27:21.150 --> 00:27:23.109
everything you thought you knew. That's right.

00:27:23.269 --> 00:27:25.210
We're talking about the milk you're getting from

00:27:25.210 --> 00:27:27.670
your cows today. And let me tell you, it's genetically

00:27:27.670 --> 00:27:29.730
different and way more valuable than the milk

00:27:29.730 --> 00:27:32.490
your grandpa was producing back in the day. We're

00:27:32.490 --> 00:27:34.690
talking about a genetic revolution that's changing

00:27:34.690 --> 00:27:37.609
the very makeup of milk. So get ready to dive

00:27:37.609 --> 00:27:40.450
deep into this fascinating world of dairy genetics.

00:27:40.750 --> 00:27:42.569
You hit the nail on the head. We're seeing this

00:27:42.569 --> 00:27:46.349
incredible surge in butterfat and protein levels

00:27:46.349 --> 00:27:48.670
in the U .S. milk supply. And it's happening

00:27:48.670 --> 00:27:50.789
while overall milk production is pretty much

00:27:50.789 --> 00:27:53.279
flat. Yeah, it's like we've hit a ceiling on

00:27:53.279 --> 00:27:55.920
milk volume, but the quality dial is cranked

00:27:55.920 --> 00:27:57.500
way up. And you know what that means, right?

00:27:57.599 --> 00:28:00.799
It means more cheese, more butter, more of all

00:28:00.799 --> 00:28:03.119
the good stuff that makes the dairy industry

00:28:03.119 --> 00:28:05.740
tick. And it couldn't be happening at a better

00:28:05.740 --> 00:28:07.859
time with all this new processing capacity coming

00:28:07.859 --> 00:28:11.859
online. Exactly $8 billion worth of new plants

00:28:11.859 --> 00:28:14.980
by 2027, all geared toward churning out those

00:28:14.980 --> 00:28:17.559
high -value dairy products. So if you're a dairy

00:28:17.559 --> 00:28:19.380
farmer listening in, you're probably wondering

00:28:19.380 --> 00:28:22.319
what's driving this component surge. And more

00:28:22.319 --> 00:28:24.160
importantly, what does it mean for your operation

00:28:24.160 --> 00:28:26.279
and how can you position your herd to really

00:28:26.279 --> 00:28:28.819
cash in on this genetic gold rush? That's exactly

00:28:28.819 --> 00:28:31.170
what we're here to break down today. The forces

00:28:31.170 --> 00:28:33.910
behind this component surge, the impact it's

00:28:33.910 --> 00:28:36.170
having on the industry, and what you as a dairy

00:28:36.170 --> 00:28:38.529
producer need to know to stay ahead of the curve.

00:28:39.009 --> 00:28:41.789
Think of this as your roadmap to navigating the

00:28:41.789 --> 00:28:44.650
ever -evolving world of dairy genetics. Buckle

00:28:44.650 --> 00:28:47.049
up, because we're about to embark on a deep dive

00:28:47.049 --> 00:28:49.190
into the numbers, the science, and the economics

00:28:49.190 --> 00:28:52.009
of this milk component revolution. All right,

00:28:52.029 --> 00:28:53.630
let's jump right into it and talk about this

00:28:53.630 --> 00:28:56.150
unprecedented component surge that everyone's

00:28:56.150 --> 00:28:57.809
buzzing about. Well, first, let's look at the

00:28:57.809 --> 00:29:00.349
data, because numbers don't lie. We've seen butterfat

00:29:00.349 --> 00:29:02.750
set new annual records for four years running,

00:29:02.910 --> 00:29:05.349
now breaking through that 4 % ceiling in 2021.

00:29:05.730 --> 00:29:08.210
4 %! You know, that's a level we haven't seen

00:29:08.210 --> 00:29:10.369
since right after World War II. It's like we're

00:29:10.369 --> 00:29:12.589
rewriting the history books with each new lactation

00:29:12.589 --> 00:29:16.170
cycle. And by 2024, the national average for

00:29:16.170 --> 00:29:18.589
butterfat climbed even higher, hitting an impressive

00:29:18.589 --> 00:29:22.190
4 .23%. It's truly remarkable. It really is.

00:29:22.250 --> 00:29:23.769
And on the protein side, we're seeing similar

00:29:23.769 --> 00:29:26.950
gains, which is music to the ears of cheesemakers

00:29:26.950 --> 00:29:29.519
everywhere. Protein has been setting yearly records

00:29:29.519 --> 00:29:32.400
from 2016 all the way through 2024. In fact,

00:29:32.420 --> 00:29:35.799
the average protein content in 2024 hit 3 .29%,

00:29:35.799 --> 00:29:38.980
a significant jump from the 3 .04 % we saw back

00:29:38.980 --> 00:29:41.779
in 2004. So we're seeing this remarkable increase

00:29:41.779 --> 00:29:43.680
in components, but the interesting thing is that

00:29:43.680 --> 00:29:45.640
it's not tied to an increase in milk volume,

00:29:45.720 --> 00:29:48.339
right? Exactly. It's like the recipe for milk

00:29:48.339 --> 00:29:50.460
itself is changing. If we look at the period

00:29:50.460 --> 00:29:53.519
from 2011 to 2024, the growth rates tell the

00:29:53.519 --> 00:29:57.150
story. milk volume increased by a decent 15 .9%.

00:29:57.150 --> 00:29:59.289
Okay, not bad. But then you look at protein production,

00:29:59.410 --> 00:30:01.769
which jumped by 23 .6%, and butterfat, well,

00:30:01.930 --> 00:30:04.670
that took off like a rocket with a 30 .2 % increase.

00:30:04.930 --> 00:30:06.829
It's clear that the focus is shifting from simply

00:30:06.829 --> 00:30:08.930
producing more milk to producing more valuable

00:30:08.930 --> 00:30:10.829
milk, milk that's packed with those components

00:30:10.829 --> 00:30:12.640
that the market's demanding. It's like for years,

00:30:12.779 --> 00:30:14.799
the mantra was more milk, more milk, more milk.

00:30:14.940 --> 00:30:17.440
But now the game has changed. The genetics are

00:30:17.440 --> 00:30:19.019
pushing us in a different direction, one that

00:30:19.019 --> 00:30:21.420
could be far more lucrative for dairy producers.

00:30:21.740 --> 00:30:23.579
And this component surge is happening against

00:30:23.579 --> 00:30:26.950
a backdrop of stagnant milk production. Overall,

00:30:27.210 --> 00:30:29.650
we've seen back -to -back years of slight decline

00:30:29.650 --> 00:30:32.450
in 2023 and 2024. Yeah. And even the growth in

00:30:32.450 --> 00:30:35.130
2022 was pretty minimal. So it's clear that the

00:30:35.130 --> 00:30:37.470
future of dairy isn't about squeezing out every

00:30:37.470 --> 00:30:40.049
last drop. It's about maximizing the value of

00:30:40.049 --> 00:30:42.049
every drop. And that's where genetics comes in.

00:30:42.210 --> 00:30:44.650
Absolutely. Genetics is the key driver behind

00:30:44.650 --> 00:30:47.349
this component revolution. And the advancements

00:30:47.349 --> 00:30:49.869
we've seen in genomics over the past decade have

00:30:49.869 --> 00:30:51.990
been nothing short of game -changing. You know,

00:30:52.009 --> 00:30:54.329
I remember when genomic testing first came on

00:30:54.329 --> 00:30:56.700
the scene, it was like this futuristic technology

00:30:56.700 --> 00:30:59.140
that nobody really understood, but now it's become

00:30:59.140 --> 00:31:01.440
an indispensable tool for dairy producers across

00:31:01.440 --> 00:31:04.119
the globe. It really has by analyzing an animal's

00:31:04.119 --> 00:31:07.099
DNA and comparing it to a massive database. We

00:31:07.099 --> 00:31:10.220
can now predict with remarkable accuracy, about

00:31:10.220 --> 00:31:12.980
70 % to be precise, the genetic potential of

00:31:12.980 --> 00:31:15.059
a young calf, even before she's had her first

00:31:15.059 --> 00:31:17.210
calf. It's like having a crystal ball for your

00:31:17.210 --> 00:31:19.930
breeding program. You can identify those genetically

00:31:19.930 --> 00:31:22.990
superior animals early on and make informed decisions

00:31:22.990 --> 00:31:25.150
about which ones to invest in. And the amount

00:31:25.150 --> 00:31:27.490
of data we've collected on dairy cattle is staggering.

00:31:27.950 --> 00:31:30.829
It's made the dairy cow one of the most intensely

00:31:30.829 --> 00:31:33.630
studied domestic animals on the planet, as Dr.

00:31:33.809 --> 00:31:37.430
John Cole from USDA AGIL pointed out. He's right.

00:31:37.470 --> 00:31:39.730
We have this incredible wealth of phenotypic

00:31:39.730 --> 00:31:41.769
data, which is the stuff we can actually measure,

00:31:41.869 --> 00:31:44.210
like milk yield component percentages and health

00:31:44.210 --> 00:31:47.309
traits. And it's this phenotypic data that really

00:31:47.309 --> 00:31:50.769
allows us to fine tune the accuracy of our genomic

00:31:50.769 --> 00:31:52.849
predictions. It's like having the recipe book

00:31:52.849 --> 00:31:55.190
and then detailed notes on how every batch turned

00:31:55.190 --> 00:31:57.789
out. Combining the genetic code with real world

00:31:57.789 --> 00:32:00.349
performance data gives us a powerful tool for

00:32:00.349 --> 00:32:02.549
driving genetic progress. And speaking of progress,

00:32:02.609 --> 00:32:04.710
the adoption rate for genomic testing has been

00:32:04.710 --> 00:32:07.190
absolutely phenomenal. It's been exponential.

00:32:07.250 --> 00:32:09.269
It took seven years after the technology emerged

00:32:09.269 --> 00:32:12.549
in 2009 to hit one million genotype dairy animals.

00:32:12.630 --> 00:32:14.509
But then things really took off. Yeah, we hit

00:32:14.509 --> 00:32:17.650
five million tests by March of 2021. And then

00:32:17.650 --> 00:32:19.890
just a few short years later, in December 2024,

00:32:20.329 --> 00:32:22.789
we blew past the 10 million mark. And this isn't

00:32:22.789 --> 00:32:25.190
just a U .S. phenomenon. Either a third of those

00:32:25.190 --> 00:32:27.670
tests have been conducted in 72 other countries

00:32:27.670 --> 00:32:30.329
around the world. So it's a truly global revolution.

00:32:30.829 --> 00:32:32.730
It really highlights the impact this technology

00:32:32.730 --> 00:32:35.170
is having on the dairy industry worldwide. And

00:32:35.170 --> 00:32:37.210
it's not just about having access to this genetic

00:32:37.210 --> 00:32:39.490
information. It's about how it's fundamentally

00:32:39.490 --> 00:32:42.769
changing the way we think about improving productivity

00:32:42.769 --> 00:32:44.950
on our farms. You're absolutely right. If we

00:32:44.950 --> 00:32:47.470
go back a few decades, say, to the period between

00:32:47.470 --> 00:32:50.730
the late 1950s and the 1980s, most of the gains

00:32:50.730 --> 00:32:52.529
in milk production were driven by management

00:32:52.529 --> 00:32:54.950
practices. Things like better nutrition, improved

00:32:54.950 --> 00:32:57.740
housing, and herd health protocols. Back then,

00:32:57.759 --> 00:32:59.700
it was all about optimizing the environment and

00:32:59.700 --> 00:33:02.099
providing the best possible care for the animals.

00:33:02.359 --> 00:33:04.819
Then from the 1980s to around the year 2000,

00:33:05.079 --> 00:33:07.579
we saw a more balanced contribution from both

00:33:07.579 --> 00:33:10.079
genetics and management. That's when sire selection

00:33:10.079 --> 00:33:12.680
based on pedigree and production records really

00:33:12.680 --> 00:33:15.039
started to gain traction. It was a time of transition

00:33:15.039 --> 00:33:17.660
as producers began to understand the power of

00:33:17.660 --> 00:33:20.019
selective breeding. But then around the turn

00:33:20.019 --> 00:33:21.380
of the millennium, something really interesting

00:33:21.380 --> 00:33:23.920
happened. Genetics started to overtake management

00:33:23.920 --> 00:33:26.339
as the primary driver of productivity gains.

00:33:26.579 --> 00:33:29.819
Yeah. By 2015, genetics was estimated to be contributing

00:33:29.819 --> 00:33:32.380
over 60 % to the increase in milk production.

00:33:32.420 --> 00:33:35.619
And by 2022, that figure had climbed to over

00:33:35.619 --> 00:33:39.160
70%. It's like the DNA of our cows became the

00:33:39.160 --> 00:33:41.740
engine of progress. And that brings us to a major

00:33:41.740 --> 00:33:44.539
event that every dairy producer needs to be aware

00:33:44.539 --> 00:33:48.650
of, the April 2025 genetic reset. It's a major

00:33:48.650 --> 00:33:51.029
recalibration of the entire dairy cattle breeding

00:33:51.029 --> 00:33:54.210
landscape. April 1st, 2025, mark it on your calendars,

00:33:54.210 --> 00:33:56.450
folks, because the CDCB is rolling out some big

00:33:56.450 --> 00:33:58.769
changes. We're talking simultaneous updates to

00:33:58.769 --> 00:34:01.450
the lifetime merit indices and a shift to a new

00:34:01.450 --> 00:34:04.089
base population of cows born in 2020. It's the

00:34:04.089 --> 00:34:05.750
first time we've seen a combined update of this

00:34:05.750 --> 00:34:08.269
magnitude since 2015, and it's all about keeping

00:34:08.269 --> 00:34:10.309
our genetic compass pointed in the right direction.

00:34:10.489 --> 00:34:12.210
So it's like hitting the reset button on the

00:34:12.210 --> 00:34:14.610
entire genetic evaluation system. In essence,

00:34:14.690 --> 00:34:17.110
yes, the CDCB typically adjusts these evaluations

00:34:17.110 --> 00:34:19.429
every five years or so to keep pace with the

00:34:19.429 --> 00:34:23.309
industry's advancements. And the 2025 shift is

00:34:23.309 --> 00:34:25.289
a reflection of the incredible genetic progress

00:34:25.289 --> 00:34:27.829
we've made over the past decade. And this means

00:34:27.829 --> 00:34:30.030
that all animals will now have their genetic

00:34:30.030 --> 00:34:33.449
merit assessed relative to a new benchmark, the

00:34:33.449 --> 00:34:36.389
average genetic merit of cows born in 2020 instead

00:34:36.389 --> 00:34:39.329
of 2015. Exactly. And this new base population

00:34:39.329 --> 00:34:42.869
is going to lead to some adjustments. in the

00:34:42.869 --> 00:34:45.769
predicted transmitting abilities, or PTAs, for

00:34:45.769 --> 00:34:48.070
various traits. So what kind of adjustments can

00:34:48.070 --> 00:34:50.090
we expect to see? Well, for Holsteins, we're

00:34:50.090 --> 00:34:52.829
projecting a downward adjustment around 750 pounds

00:34:52.829 --> 00:34:57.469
for milk, PTA, 45 pounds for fat, and 30 pounds

00:34:57.469 --> 00:34:59.989
for protein. Wow. Those are some significant

00:34:59.989 --> 00:35:01.690
adjustments. They are, but it's important to

00:35:01.690 --> 00:35:03.449
remember that it's not a reflection of any decline

00:35:03.449 --> 00:35:05.489
in the actual genetic potential of the animals.

00:35:05.650 --> 00:35:08.570
It's simply a new frame of reference, a recalibration

00:35:08.570 --> 00:35:10.650
of the system. It's like Dr. Cole pointed out.

00:35:10.650 --> 00:35:12.869
It's like resetting the odometer on your car.

00:35:12.989 --> 00:35:14.869
The numbers go down, but the capability of the

00:35:14.869 --> 00:35:17.849
vehicle hasn't changed. Precisely. And to really

00:35:17.849 --> 00:35:20.550
grasp the speed of genetic improvement, it's

00:35:20.550 --> 00:35:22.789
helpful to compare the scale of these base changes

00:35:22.789 --> 00:35:27.150
over time. In 2025, the Holstein base for butterfat

00:35:27.150 --> 00:35:30.190
is rolling back by 51 pounds and for protein

00:35:30.190 --> 00:35:32.829
by 36 pounds. Those are some big numbers. They

00:35:32.829 --> 00:35:34.530
are, especially when you compare them to the

00:35:34.530 --> 00:35:37.869
2015 reset, where the rollback was just 17 pounds

00:35:37.869 --> 00:35:40.769
for fat and 12 pounds for protein. That dramatic

00:35:40.769 --> 00:35:43.429
acceleration really highlights how rapidly our

00:35:43.429 --> 00:35:46.219
dairy genetics are evolving. So a bull that might

00:35:46.219 --> 00:35:48.119
have looked like a superstar with a sky -high

00:35:48.119 --> 00:35:50.780
PTA last month might appear a little less dazzling

00:35:50.780 --> 00:35:52.940
under the new system in April. That's true, but

00:35:52.940 --> 00:35:54.500
it's not just the base change that's shaking

00:35:54.500 --> 00:35:56.860
things up. The merit indices themselves are getting

00:35:56.860 --> 00:35:59.239
a major makeover as well. Okay, let's dive into

00:35:59.239 --> 00:36:01.880
this NM dollar shakeup. What are the big changes

00:36:01.880 --> 00:36:03.719
that producers need to wrap their heads around?

00:36:04.039 --> 00:36:05.860
Well, one of the most significant shifts is the

00:36:05.860 --> 00:36:09.010
increased emphasis on butterfat. Its weighting

00:36:09.010 --> 00:36:10.929
in the NM dollar formula is going up by about

00:36:10.929 --> 00:36:13.969
13%, reflecting the strong market demand for

00:36:13.969 --> 00:36:16.349
butterfat, driven in large part by the booming

00:36:16.349 --> 00:36:18.809
cheese industry. Cheese, yeah, it seems like

00:36:18.809 --> 00:36:21.050
everyone's going crazy for cheese these days,

00:36:21.250 --> 00:36:24.369
and fat is a key ingredient in both yield and

00:36:24.369 --> 00:36:26.409
flavor, so it makes sense that butterfat is getting

00:36:26.409 --> 00:36:29.349
more attention. Absolutely, and with fat prices

00:36:29.349 --> 00:36:33.030
often hovering around $3 .20 per pound, the economic

00:36:33.030 --> 00:36:35.590
signals are clear fat pays. That's for sure.

00:36:35.690 --> 00:36:37.670
And what else has seen a shift in the NM dollar

00:36:37.670 --> 00:36:40.449
calculations? Fee deficiency is another area

00:36:40.449 --> 00:36:42.050
that's getting a much bigger slice of the pie.

00:36:42.500 --> 00:36:45.760
The combined impact of traits related to how

00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:48.539
efficiently cows convert feed into milk components

00:36:48.539 --> 00:36:52.139
is going up by a whopping 41%. With feed costs

00:36:52.139 --> 00:36:53.920
being what they are, that makes a lot of sense.

00:36:54.000 --> 00:36:56.199
Any genetic edge we can get on feed efficiency

00:36:56.199 --> 00:36:58.760
is a win for dairy producers. You bet. With feed

00:36:58.760 --> 00:37:02.320
costs often around $300 per ton, anything we

00:37:02.320 --> 00:37:04.019
can do to help cows make better use of their

00:37:04.019 --> 00:37:05.760
feed is going to have a big impact on the bottom

00:37:05.760 --> 00:37:07.880
line. It's all about turning feed dollars into

00:37:07.880 --> 00:37:10.159
milk component dollars as efficiently as possible.

00:37:10.239 --> 00:37:12.539
And what about other economically important traits?

00:37:12.619 --> 00:37:14.559
Have those seen any changes in the NM dollar

00:37:14.559 --> 00:37:16.920
formula? Well, livability is another one that's

00:37:16.920 --> 00:37:19.159
getting a lot more attention, with its weighting

00:37:19.159 --> 00:37:23.000
increasing by a full 100%. This reflects the

00:37:23.000 --> 00:37:25.820
rising value of cull cows, which are now often

00:37:25.820 --> 00:37:29.420
bringing in upwards of $1 ,800 per head. So keeping

00:37:29.420 --> 00:37:32.019
cows in the herd longer and reducing involuntary

00:37:32.019 --> 00:37:34.000
culling is becoming even more important from

00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:36.630
an economic standpoint. Precisely, a longer -living,

00:37:36.630 --> 00:37:39.789
healthier cow is simply more profitable. So it

00:37:39.789 --> 00:37:42.650
seems like the recipe for the ideal cow, according

00:37:42.650 --> 00:37:44.849
to the new NM Dollar, is one that lives longer,

00:37:45.030 --> 00:37:47.710
stays healthier, eats less per unit of production,

00:37:47.969 --> 00:37:50.690
and pumps out milk loaded with butterfat. You

00:37:50.690 --> 00:37:52.769
got it in a nutshell. And I think a quote from

00:37:52.769 --> 00:37:55.050
CDCB Chair Amy Hazel really sums it up nicely.

00:37:55.050 --> 00:37:57.179
She said, We're essentially giving fertility

00:37:57.179 --> 00:37:59.940
traits a 20 % promotion and putting milk volume

00:37:59.940 --> 00:38:02.019
on performance improvement plans. That pretty

00:38:02.019 --> 00:38:03.960
much says that all the industry's priorities

00:38:03.960 --> 00:38:06.119
are shifting towards component sufficiency and

00:38:06.119 --> 00:38:08.219
longevity. And these shifting priorities are

00:38:08.219 --> 00:38:10.179
reflected in the updated lifetime merit indices.

00:38:10.559 --> 00:38:13.340
The weight for fat in NM dollar has gone up,

00:38:13.360 --> 00:38:15.199
while the weight for protein has actually gone

00:38:15.199 --> 00:38:18.389
down from 19 .6 to 13. So the message is clear

00:38:18.389 --> 00:38:21.170
in the new NM dollar efficiency and components,

00:38:21.269 --> 00:38:23.710
especially butterfat, are king. That's right.

00:38:23.769 --> 00:38:26.610
And it's fascinating to see how these broad genetic

00:38:26.610 --> 00:38:29.809
trends are playing out differently across the

00:38:29.809 --> 00:38:32.429
diverse dairy regions of the U .S. We've got

00:38:32.429 --> 00:38:34.530
different climates, different regulations, different

00:38:34.530 --> 00:38:36.730
market conditions, all of which can influence

00:38:36.730 --> 00:38:39.619
our breeding strategies. Dairy economists have

00:38:39.619 --> 00:38:42.420
observed some interesting patterns in how traditional

00:38:42.420 --> 00:38:45.420
dairy states, primarily in the Midwest and Northeast,

00:38:45.780 --> 00:38:48.099
and modern dairy states, mostly in the West,

00:38:48.199 --> 00:38:50.199
have approached production improvement over the

00:38:50.199 --> 00:38:52.059
years. So we're talking about different herd

00:38:52.059 --> 00:38:55.340
sizes, different growth patterns, different philosophies

00:38:55.340 --> 00:38:58.380
almost. In a way, yes. Traditional states have

00:38:58.380 --> 00:39:00.820
historically focused on boosting milk yield per

00:39:00.820 --> 00:39:03.760
cow through meticulous genetic selection and

00:39:03.760 --> 00:39:06.079
refined management practices. While modern dairy

00:39:06.079 --> 00:39:08.500
states have focused on both yield and cow numbers,

00:39:08.800 --> 00:39:10.920
they've scaled up their operations significantly

00:39:10.920 --> 00:39:14.050
in recent decades. And the difference in average

00:39:14.050 --> 00:39:17.070
herd size between the two regions is pretty striking

00:39:17.070 --> 00:39:19.550
in the West. You'll see herds with well over

00:39:19.550 --> 00:39:21.989
a thousand cows, while in the traditional states,

00:39:22.070 --> 00:39:24.250
herds tend to be much smaller. But here's the

00:39:24.250 --> 00:39:26.349
interesting part. Despite these differences in

00:39:26.349 --> 00:39:29.230
scale and approach, the productivity gap between

00:39:29.230 --> 00:39:31.710
the two regions has been steadily shrinking.

00:39:32.010 --> 00:39:35.050
Back in the year 2000, modern dairy states had

00:39:35.050 --> 00:39:37.309
a significant advantage in average milk yield

00:39:37.309 --> 00:39:41.739
per cow. But by 2022, That gap had narrowed to

00:39:41.739 --> 00:39:44.480
less than 100 pounds of milk per cow annually.

00:39:45.059 --> 00:39:47.260
So they're catching up. It seems like the playing

00:39:47.260 --> 00:39:49.440
field is leveling out in terms of per cow production.

00:39:49.760 --> 00:39:52.500
And the timing of this convergence suggests that

00:39:52.500 --> 00:39:55.099
the widespread adoption of genomic testing has

00:39:55.099 --> 00:39:57.320
played a key role, especially in the traditional

00:39:57.320 --> 00:40:00.820
dairy states. So, faced with limitations on expanding

00:40:00.820 --> 00:40:03.320
their land base and cow numbers, they've turned

00:40:03.320 --> 00:40:05.699
to genetics as their primary pathway to growth.

00:40:05.840 --> 00:40:08.260
Exactly. They've invested heavily in selecting

00:40:08.260 --> 00:40:10.119
for higher -producing, more efficient animals,

00:40:10.239 --> 00:40:12.260
and they've complemented those genetic gains

00:40:12.260 --> 00:40:14.679
with advances in milking technology and management

00:40:14.679 --> 00:40:16.940
practices. It's almost like the modern dairy

00:40:16.940 --> 00:40:19.619
states, having already focused on achieving economies

00:40:19.619 --> 00:40:22.099
of scale, might now start to place a greater

00:40:22.099 --> 00:40:24.820
emphasis on maximizing yield per cow through

00:40:24.820 --> 00:40:26.949
genetics as well. It's definitely a trend to

00:40:26.949 --> 00:40:28.929
watch and it aligns with a broader shift we're

00:40:28.929 --> 00:40:32.349
seeing across agriculture in general, where gains

00:40:32.349 --> 00:40:35.590
in overall output are increasingly driven by

00:40:35.590 --> 00:40:37.989
improvements in efficiency and productivity rather

00:40:37.989 --> 00:40:41.250
than simply expanding land use or animal numbers.

00:40:41.869 --> 00:40:43.989
So while different regions may have slightly

00:40:43.989 --> 00:40:46.190
different priorities, they're all leveraging

00:40:46.190 --> 00:40:49.130
the same powerful genetic tools to achieve their

00:40:49.130 --> 00:40:51.530
goals. And this industry -wide focus on higher

00:40:51.530 --> 00:40:53.829
milk components is having ripple effects throughout

00:40:53.829 --> 00:40:56.449
the entire dairy supply chain. Yeah, with over

00:40:56.449 --> 00:40:59.150
80 % of U .S. milk now going into manufactured

00:40:59.150 --> 00:41:01.489
dairy products like cheese butter and yogurt.

00:41:02.300 --> 00:41:04.719
Higher component levels translate to more valuable

00:41:04.719 --> 00:41:07.159
raw material for processors and better returns

00:41:07.159 --> 00:41:09.619
for producers. Exactly. And the U .S. milk pricing

00:41:09.619 --> 00:41:11.559
system, with its premiums for higher component

00:41:11.559 --> 00:41:14.039
levels, provides a strong financial incentive

00:41:14.039 --> 00:41:16.079
for producers to select for these traits. You're

00:41:16.079 --> 00:41:18.420
literally getting paid more for milk that's richer

00:41:18.420 --> 00:41:20.420
in butterfat and protein, so it's a win -win

00:41:20.420 --> 00:41:22.460
for everyone involved. And these market signals

00:41:22.460 --> 00:41:24.940
have spurred innovation in breeding technologies

00:41:24.940 --> 00:41:28.079
that go beyond traditional genomics. We've seen

00:41:28.079 --> 00:41:30.260
a surge in the use of gender -sorted semen, for

00:41:30.260 --> 00:41:33.440
instance. Yeah, by 2024, gender -assorted semen

00:41:33.440 --> 00:41:36.340
accounted for 61 % of all dairy semen sold in

00:41:36.340 --> 00:41:38.719
the U .S. That's a huge increase. It allows producers

00:41:38.719 --> 00:41:41.019
to accelerate genetic progress in their replacement

00:41:41.019 --> 00:41:43.960
heifer pool by using sexed semen on their top

00:41:43.960 --> 00:41:46.820
cows and then using beef semen on the rest to

00:41:46.820 --> 00:41:48.920
produce high -value beef -class calves. It's

00:41:48.920 --> 00:41:50.940
a smart strategy that optimizes both genetic

00:41:50.940 --> 00:41:54.050
gain and revenue. And it's not just sexed semen

00:41:54.050 --> 00:41:56.289
that's gaining traction. We're also seeing increasing

00:41:56.289 --> 00:41:59.530
use of embryo technology. Absolutely. Both conventional

00:41:59.530 --> 00:42:02.849
and in vitro fertilized embryos are being used

00:42:02.849 --> 00:42:06.409
to amplify the impact of superior genetics, allowing

00:42:06.409 --> 00:42:08.550
producers to get more offspring from their elite

00:42:08.550 --> 00:42:11.440
cows. So it all ties back to that massive investment

00:42:11.440 --> 00:42:13.559
in new processing capacity we talked about earlier.

00:42:13.679 --> 00:42:15.760
The market is demanding more high component milk

00:42:15.760 --> 00:42:17.659
and the genetics are helping us deliver. And

00:42:17.659 --> 00:42:20.199
the pace of innovation isn't slowing down. The

00:42:20.199 --> 00:42:23.139
2025 genetic reset is actually setting the stage

00:42:23.139 --> 00:42:25.280
for even more advanced selection tools in the

00:42:25.280 --> 00:42:27.139
years ahead. Oh, that's exciting. Can you give

00:42:27.139 --> 00:42:29.079
us a sneak peek at what's on the horizon? Well,

00:42:29.119 --> 00:42:31.119
one area that's generating a lot of buzz is the

00:42:31.119 --> 00:42:35.219
development of rumen microbiome, PTAs. These

00:42:35.219 --> 00:42:37.739
will link the specific populations of microbes

00:42:37.739 --> 00:42:41.860
in a cow's rumen to her feed efficiency. So we're

00:42:41.860 --> 00:42:44.219
talking about selecting for the tiny organisms

00:42:44.219 --> 00:42:46.860
that live inside the cow's gut to improve her

00:42:46.860 --> 00:42:49.480
ability to convert feed into milk. Exactly. It's

00:42:49.480 --> 00:42:51.559
taking genetic selection to a whole new level,

00:42:51.639 --> 00:42:53.739
and we're also expecting to see methane emission

00:42:53.739 --> 00:42:56.679
indexes emerge as environmental regulations around

00:42:56.679 --> 00:42:59.349
greenhouse gases become more stringent. these

00:42:59.349 --> 00:43:01.809
tools will allow producers to select for cows

00:43:01.809 --> 00:43:04.329
that produce less methane helping to reduce the

00:43:04.329 --> 00:43:06.670
environmental footprint of dairy farming and

00:43:06.670 --> 00:43:08.750
heat tolerance updates will become increasingly

00:43:08.750 --> 00:43:11.170
important as well with more and more regions

00:43:11.170 --> 00:43:13.909
facing heat stress selecting for cows that can

00:43:13.909 --> 00:43:16.090
handle the heat will be crucial for maintaining

00:43:16.090 --> 00:43:18.880
production and animal welfare It sounds like

00:43:18.880 --> 00:43:21.239
we're on the cusp of a new era in dairy genetics

00:43:21.239 --> 00:43:23.440
with even more precise and powerful tools at

00:43:23.440 --> 00:43:25.920
our disposal. So how should dairy producers be

00:43:25.920 --> 00:43:28.260
thinking about positioning their herds to thrive

00:43:28.260 --> 00:43:30.500
in this rapidly evolving landscape? Well, as

00:43:30.500 --> 00:43:32.840
dairy economist Chris Wolf put it, The upcoming

00:43:32.840 --> 00:43:35.900
April genetic overhaul is both a progress report

00:43:35.900 --> 00:43:39.019
and a crystal ball. It shows us how far we've

00:43:39.019 --> 00:43:41.559
come and gives us a glimpse into the future of

00:43:41.559 --> 00:43:43.820
dairy genetics. So the cows we'll be milking

00:43:43.820 --> 00:43:46.940
in 2035 are being designed today through the

00:43:46.940 --> 00:43:49.599
evaluations and breeding decisions we make. Exactly.

00:43:49.599 --> 00:43:51.960
So it's crucial for producers to stay informed

00:43:51.960 --> 00:43:54.780
and adapt their strategies accordingly. What

00:43:54.780 --> 00:43:57.280
are some concrete steps that producers should

00:43:57.280 --> 00:43:59.880
be considering right now to ensure their herds

00:43:59.880 --> 00:44:03.079
are future ready? First, it's essential to recalibrate

00:44:03.079 --> 00:44:05.699
your sire selection thresholds. Remember that

00:44:05.699 --> 00:44:08.219
a bull with a plus 2 ,000 NM dollar under the

00:44:08.219 --> 00:44:10.679
old system will likely have a lower NM dollar

00:44:10.679 --> 00:44:13.519
after the reset, so adjust your benchmarks accordingly.

00:44:13.820 --> 00:44:15.639
Don't panic when you see those numbers change.

00:44:15.880 --> 00:44:17.920
Exactly, and pay close attention to component

00:44:17.920 --> 00:44:21.179
ratios. The increasing value of butterfat relative

00:44:21.179 --> 00:44:24.019
to protein means you should prioritize fat in

00:44:24.019 --> 00:44:26.079
your selection decisions. And of course, feed

00:44:26.079 --> 00:44:27.679
efficiency is always important, especially with

00:44:27.679 --> 00:44:29.719
high feed costs. Selecting for animals that can

00:44:29.719 --> 00:44:32.199
convert feed efficiently will have a big impact

00:44:32.199 --> 00:44:35.059
on your bottom line. And don't neglect fertility

00:44:35.059 --> 00:44:38.199
and overall health traits while components and

00:44:38.199 --> 00:44:41.360
feed efficiency are taking center stage in the

00:44:41.360 --> 00:44:44.099
revised NM dollar. These are still critically

00:44:44.099 --> 00:44:46.920
important for profitability and longevity. It

00:44:46.920 --> 00:44:50.480
really makes you wonder how high can these butterfat

00:44:50.480 --> 00:44:53.860
and protein percentages go? Is there a limit?

00:44:54.460 --> 00:44:56.519
That's a great question. And frankly, I don't

00:44:56.519 --> 00:44:58.280
think we know the answer yet. I believe we're

00:44:58.280 --> 00:45:00.500
still just scratching the surface of the genetic

00:45:00.500 --> 00:45:02.679
potential within our dairy cattle. So we can

00:45:02.679 --> 00:45:05.019
expect to see even further gains in milk components

00:45:05.019 --> 00:45:07.199
in the years to come as we continue to refine

00:45:07.199 --> 00:45:09.960
our breeding programs and selection tools. Absolutely.

00:45:10.000 --> 00:45:12.320
And these genetic advancements aren't just abstract

00:45:12.320 --> 00:45:14.199
numbers. They're having a real impact on the

00:45:14.199 --> 00:45:16.340
entire dairy industry. We're seeing a transformation

00:45:16.340 --> 00:45:19.500
in both dairy production and processing. The

00:45:19.500 --> 00:45:21.940
continuous improvements in butterfat and protein

00:45:21.940 --> 00:45:24.659
are ensuring that we can meet the growing demand

00:45:24.659 --> 00:45:27.719
for high quality dairy products. And it's inspiring

00:45:27.719 --> 00:45:30.820
to see how producers of all sizes are embracing

00:45:30.820 --> 00:45:33.039
these new technologies and incorporating them

00:45:33.039 --> 00:45:35.480
into their operations. The U .S. dairy sector

00:45:35.480 --> 00:45:38.239
is truly a global leader in genetic improvement,

00:45:38.380 --> 00:45:40.960
and it's clear that this genetic revolution is

00:45:40.960 --> 00:45:43.179
far from over. In fact, I think we're just getting

00:45:43.179 --> 00:45:46.179
started. The future of dairy is bright, and it's

00:45:46.179 --> 00:45:48.769
driven by genetics. So to wrap up today's deep

00:45:48.769 --> 00:45:51.469
dive, let's recap the key takeaways. We've seen

00:45:51.469 --> 00:45:53.969
this remarkable rise in milk components driven

00:45:53.969 --> 00:45:56.329
by the power of genomics. We've talked about

00:45:56.329 --> 00:45:58.829
the significance of the upcoming 2025 genetic

00:45:58.829 --> 00:46:01.789
reset and the shift in economic priorities reflected

00:46:01.789 --> 00:46:04.760
in the updated NM dollar index. And we've highlighted

00:46:04.760 --> 00:46:07.079
the importance of focusing on both components

00:46:07.079 --> 00:46:10.199
and feed efficiency as key drivers of future

00:46:10.199 --> 00:46:13.139
profitability and sustainability. So as you head

00:46:13.139 --> 00:46:15.239
back to your farms, we encourage you to think

00:46:15.239 --> 00:46:17.079
about the specific adjustments you'll be making

00:46:17.079 --> 00:46:19.880
to your breeding strategies to ensure your herds

00:46:19.880 --> 00:46:22.280
are future ready. Take a close look at your herd

00:46:22.280 --> 00:46:24.619
data. Familiarize yourself with the new genetic

00:46:24.619 --> 00:46:26.739
evaluations coming out in April and consider

00:46:26.739 --> 00:46:28.900
how these changes will impact your breeding decisions.

00:46:29.320 --> 00:46:31.820
The future of dairy is in your hands. And with

00:46:31.820 --> 00:46:34.000
the right tools and knowledge, you can position

00:46:34.000 --> 00:46:36.900
your herds for success in this exciting component

00:46:36.900 --> 00:46:39.400
-driven era. Thanks for joining us today, folks.

00:46:39.460 --> 00:46:42.880
Until next time, happy milking. Finally, we're

00:46:42.880 --> 00:46:45.579
turning our focus to global trade. U .S. exports

00:46:45.579 --> 00:46:48.280
of skim milk powder to China have hit a historic

00:46:48.280 --> 00:46:52.300
low, zero to be exact. This marks a major structural

00:46:52.300 --> 00:46:55.239
shift in trade dynamics and puts the dairy industry

00:46:55.239 --> 00:46:58.480
in a tough spot. Can American producers reclaim

00:46:58.480 --> 00:47:01.260
their footing? Or is this a sign of bigger changes

00:47:01.260 --> 00:47:04.960
ahead? Let's get into it. Global trade, you hear

00:47:04.960 --> 00:47:07.039
about it constantly, but sometimes, honestly,

00:47:07.219 --> 00:47:09.260
a single number, it really makes you stop and

00:47:09.260 --> 00:47:12.920
think. Right. Like this one. U .S. skim milk

00:47:12.920 --> 00:47:17.559
powder exports to China. Yeah. Zero. Nada. Nothing.

00:47:18.300 --> 00:47:21.659
last February. It's a massive shift. And that's

00:47:21.659 --> 00:47:24.460
exactly what we're diving into today. What caused

00:47:24.460 --> 00:47:27.340
this huge collapse? What does it mean for us,

00:47:27.420 --> 00:47:30.119
the U .S. dairy industry? Well, what I find really

00:47:30.119 --> 00:47:32.119
interesting is not just the fact that it happened,

00:47:32.260 --> 00:47:36.119
but how fast it happened and just how completely

00:47:36.119 --> 00:47:39.480
that market seems to have vanished for U .S.

00:47:39.480 --> 00:47:42.599
suppliers. Poof. Gone. Not even a little dip,

00:47:42.679 --> 00:47:45.059
just gone. Right. So we've got this report here,

00:47:45.179 --> 00:47:47.099
fresh from the bullvine. It lays it all out.

00:47:47.139 --> 00:47:48.579
We're going to unpack why this happened, right?

00:47:49.300 --> 00:47:52.059
Pricing pressures. China's honestly amazing growth

00:47:52.059 --> 00:47:54.460
in their own dairy production and how these other

00:47:54.460 --> 00:47:57.420
big players, New Zealand, the EU, they've kind

00:47:57.420 --> 00:47:59.199
of positioned themselves. Yeah, it's fascinating.

00:47:59.400 --> 00:48:02.820
It's a complex situation tied into bigger economic

00:48:02.820 --> 00:48:05.579
trends like deflation in China, potential oversupply

00:48:05.579 --> 00:48:07.900
here in the U .S. Yeah, a lot to cover. So our

00:48:07.900 --> 00:48:10.739
mission today. is to really get to the heart

00:48:10.739 --> 00:48:13.340
of this change. And it is crucial, absolutely

00:48:13.340 --> 00:48:15.500
crucial for anyone involved in dairy or even

00:48:15.500 --> 00:48:17.639
just following it to understand what this means.

00:48:17.760 --> 00:48:19.539
For sure. Because this isn't just some isolated

00:48:19.539 --> 00:48:23.280
trade thing. It reflects like these much deeper

00:48:23.280 --> 00:48:25.619
changes happening in the global market. It's

00:48:25.619 --> 00:48:28.019
like tectonic plates shifting. Exactly. So let's

00:48:28.019 --> 00:48:30.280
get into the nitty gritty. Let's do it. That

00:48:30.280 --> 00:48:34.000
zero number, right? US S &P exports to China

00:48:34.000 --> 00:48:38.070
in February 2025. That just... That jumps off

00:48:38.070 --> 00:48:39.789
the page. Yeah. It's the first time we've seen

00:48:39.789 --> 00:48:43.969
a complete stop since May 2019. Wow. And it's

00:48:43.969 --> 00:48:46.730
the lowest level since, get this, 2013. That's,

00:48:46.730 --> 00:48:48.750
yeah, that's a while ago. So break it down for

00:48:48.750 --> 00:48:51.570
us. What are the main forces at play here? So

00:48:51.570 --> 00:48:54.150
this Bullvine report, they pinpoint two main

00:48:54.150 --> 00:48:56.550
things. First, there's a big price difference

00:48:56.550 --> 00:49:00.550
between US S &P and what the EU and New Zealand

00:49:00.550 --> 00:49:03.969
are offering. By late 2024, US S &P was going

00:49:03.969 --> 00:49:08.139
for like... $27 more per metric ton. When you're

00:49:08.139 --> 00:49:09.960
talking bulk orders, that's a lot of money. And

00:49:09.960 --> 00:49:12.380
this price gap, it probably has to do with the

00:49:12.380 --> 00:49:14.860
fact that U .S. S &P production dropped by 14

00:49:14.860 --> 00:49:18.659
% in 2024. Less supply, higher prices. The less

00:49:18.659 --> 00:49:21.760
supply here pushed prices up. Makes sense. But

00:49:21.760 --> 00:49:23.880
that second thing you mentioned, China's own

00:49:23.880 --> 00:49:26.599
dairy sector, that seems like a huge part of

00:49:26.599 --> 00:49:29.079
this story. Oh, it absolutely is. China has been

00:49:29.079 --> 00:49:31.039
amazing at boosting their own milk production.

00:49:31.280 --> 00:49:34.480
They set this goal back in 2018 to be self -sufficient.

00:49:34.639 --> 00:49:38.820
And by 2023, they'd already hit 85 % self -sufficiency.

00:49:38.980 --> 00:49:41.559
Wow. Which is like way ahead of schedule. They

00:49:41.559 --> 00:49:44.280
had this massive increase in domestic raw milk

00:49:44.280 --> 00:49:47.280
production. I'm talking a jump of about 10 million

00:49:47.280 --> 00:49:50.340
metric tons from 2018 to 2023. So they just don't

00:49:50.340 --> 00:49:53.199
need to import as much anymore. 10 million metric

00:49:53.199 --> 00:49:55.579
tons. That's that's mind boggling. I mean, you

00:49:55.579 --> 00:49:57.280
can see how that would just it would just completely

00:49:57.280 --> 00:49:59.260
change their needs. So while we were dealing

00:49:59.260 --> 00:50:00.860
with less production and higher prices, they

00:50:00.860 --> 00:50:03.780
were basically becoming their own supplier. Exactly.

00:50:03.780 --> 00:50:06.739
Like impressive and also kind of spanky for us.

00:50:06.780 --> 00:50:08.719
Right. So who's filling that gap then? It's the

00:50:08.719 --> 00:50:10.579
one the U .S. used to have. Well, New Zealand

00:50:10.579 --> 00:50:12.599
and the European Union, they've really stepped

00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:14.860
in. You look at the market share, New Zealand,

00:50:14.940 --> 00:50:18.139
they control like 68 percent of China's S &P

00:50:18.139 --> 00:50:21.269
imports now. 2024 numbers. Wow. U .S. share.

00:50:21.389 --> 00:50:23.230
Well, we already talked about that. And it's

00:50:23.230 --> 00:50:26.010
not just S &P. New Zealand, they've got 90 percent

00:50:26.010 --> 00:50:28.130
of China's whole milk powder market. 90 percent.

00:50:28.309 --> 00:50:32.449
90 percent. We sent zero WMP to China in February.

00:50:32.590 --> 00:50:35.469
So they basically got a monopoly. What's their

00:50:35.469 --> 00:50:38.429
secret? Well, a big one is their tariff -free

00:50:38.429 --> 00:50:40.610
trade deal with China. That gives them a massive

00:50:40.610 --> 00:50:42.829
advantage on price, competitiveness, everything.

00:50:43.110 --> 00:50:45.869
The EU, they're doing well with S &P, but they

00:50:45.869 --> 00:50:47.829
also benefit from, you know, their political

00:50:47.829 --> 00:50:50.030
relationship with China. The U .S., we don't

00:50:50.030 --> 00:50:51.969
really have that same leverage. The Bullvine

00:50:51.969 --> 00:50:54.230
Report, they put it pretty bluntly. How so? They

00:50:54.230 --> 00:50:56.570
said the U .S. has been priced out of the Chinese

00:50:56.570 --> 00:50:59.659
market. Ouch. So it's not just about... Who's

00:50:59.659 --> 00:51:01.719
got the cheapest product at any given time? It's

00:51:01.719 --> 00:51:03.920
about trade deals, relationships, the whole picture.

00:51:04.039 --> 00:51:06.400
Right. And all of this is happening against a

00:51:06.400 --> 00:51:10.239
backdrop of deflation in China. Exactly. Their

00:51:10.239 --> 00:51:13.480
economy is in a deflationary period. Their consumer

00:51:13.480 --> 00:51:16.619
price index fell by 0 .7 percent in February

00:51:16.619 --> 00:51:19.619
2025. Wow. Which is the biggest drop since 2020.

00:51:19.900 --> 00:51:22.800
So stuff in China is getting cheaper. And when

00:51:22.800 --> 00:51:26.239
that happens, expensive imports like RSMP, they're

00:51:26.239 --> 00:51:28.659
even less appealing. Makes sense. If everything

00:51:28.659 --> 00:51:31.139
else is cheaper, why buy the pricey import? Are

00:51:31.139 --> 00:51:33.260
we seeing this affect other dairy imports too?

00:51:33.699 --> 00:51:37.599
Kind of. UHT milk imports dipped in January 2025,

00:51:37.920 --> 00:51:41.159
but then they leveled off in February. And the

00:51:41.159 --> 00:51:43.559
bullvine, they suggest this might be because

00:51:43.559 --> 00:51:45.860
China is really pushing for self -reliance. They

00:51:45.860 --> 00:51:48.480
just need less imported UHT milk regardless of

00:51:48.480 --> 00:51:50.639
price. It's like a double whammy. Cheaper local

00:51:50.639 --> 00:51:52.639
options. They want to rely less on imports in

00:51:52.639 --> 00:51:54.559
general. Yeah. So what about the global milk

00:51:54.559 --> 00:51:56.280
supply? Could that mess things up even more for

00:51:56.280 --> 00:51:58.420
us? Well, Rabobank, they're predicting global

00:51:58.420 --> 00:52:01.159
milk supply will grow by about 0 .8 percent in

00:52:01.159 --> 00:52:04.619
2025. OK. It's not a huge jump, but the problem

00:52:04.619 --> 00:52:06.960
is we don't know what China's import demand will

00:52:06.960 --> 00:52:09.519
be. If it doesn't pick up, that extra supply

00:52:09.519 --> 00:52:12.139
could push global prices down even further. And

00:52:12.139 --> 00:52:14.579
that's, you know, especially worrying when you

00:52:14.579 --> 00:52:16.639
consider we might have too much cheese here in

00:52:16.639 --> 00:52:18.539
the U .S. Yeah, the report mentioned that, the

00:52:18.539 --> 00:52:21.219
risk of overproduction. Right. We've got all

00:52:21.219 --> 00:52:23.539
this new cheese processing capacity coming online,

00:52:23.679 --> 00:52:26.539
something like 200 million pounds per year. They

00:52:26.539 --> 00:52:29.139
probably plan that expansion, expecting global

00:52:29.139 --> 00:52:32.420
demand to keep growing. But if those export markets,

00:52:32.500 --> 00:52:34.820
especially China, don't come through, we could

00:52:34.820 --> 00:52:36.840
end up with way too much cheese and that means

00:52:36.840 --> 00:52:39.659
prices could crash. So it's like the perfect

00:52:39.659 --> 00:52:42.179
storm. We're locked out of a major market. We

00:52:42.179 --> 00:52:44.739
might have a cheese glut at home and prices are

00:52:44.739 --> 00:52:46.900
under pressure globally. Now, the report does

00:52:46.900 --> 00:52:49.280
say Mexico has become a really important market

00:52:49.280 --> 00:52:51.619
for U .S. dairy. Oh, absolutely. But is that

00:52:51.619 --> 00:52:54.019
enough to counter all of this? Mexico is a great

00:52:54.019 --> 00:52:55.659
market. Don't get me wrong. But putting all your

00:52:55.659 --> 00:52:57.920
eggs in one basket, it's always risky. You need

00:52:57.920 --> 00:53:00.420
to diversify. Yeah. The Bullvine report, they

00:53:00.420 --> 00:53:03.320
actually point to some critical errors that got

00:53:03.320 --> 00:53:33.159
us here. Like what? Yeah. It's all connected.

00:53:33.300 --> 00:53:36.409
Yeah. Given all this, what does the bull vine

00:53:36.409 --> 00:53:39.489
recommend? How can U .S. exporters adjust? They

00:53:39.489 --> 00:53:41.590
have some really good recommended shifts. One

00:53:41.590 --> 00:53:44.110
is we need to be more strategic. They suggest

00:53:44.110 --> 00:53:46.630
U .S. producers should focus more on butter and

00:53:46.630 --> 00:53:49.469
cheddar cheese, less on SMP. China might not

00:53:49.469 --> 00:53:51.829
be buying as much SMP and WMP, but there's still

00:53:51.829 --> 00:53:54.550
some demand for cheese. This would align our

00:53:54.550 --> 00:53:56.969
production with what the market actually wants,

00:53:57.110 --> 00:53:59.389
and it's what the EU and New Zealand are already

00:53:59.389 --> 00:54:01.860
doing. So go where the demand is. And their other

00:54:01.860 --> 00:54:03.619
big recommendation is about trade policy, right?

00:54:03.699 --> 00:54:05.840
Yeah, they say we need to really push for tariff

00:54:05.840 --> 00:54:07.980
parity with New Zealand in our trade talks with

00:54:07.980 --> 00:54:10.579
China. That tariff -free access they have, it's

00:54:10.579 --> 00:54:13.239
such a huge advantage. We need to level the playing

00:54:13.239 --> 00:54:15.380
field. If we can get tariff relief, that would

00:54:15.380 --> 00:54:17.380
directly address that price gap and make our

00:54:17.380 --> 00:54:19.340
dairy products more attractive to Chinese buyers

00:54:19.340 --> 00:54:22.099
if and when that market comes back. But the thing

00:54:22.099 --> 00:54:25.659
is, and the bull vine, they're pretty blunt about

00:54:25.659 --> 00:54:27.820
this in their provocative takeaways for dairy

00:54:27.820 --> 00:54:30.880
farmers. The Chinese S &P market, it might just

00:54:30.880 --> 00:54:33.219
be closed for a while. They have so much surplus

00:54:33.219 --> 00:54:35.619
and they're really focused on being self -sufficient

00:54:35.619 --> 00:54:38.420
with the UMAP. They don't see our S &P exports

00:54:38.420 --> 00:54:41.579
recovering before 2026. Yeah, that's a tough

00:54:41.579 --> 00:54:43.559
one. And that warning about potential cheese

00:54:43.559 --> 00:54:45.500
plant closures here if exports don't improve,

00:54:45.619 --> 00:54:48.260
that's serious. They recommend farmers use tools

00:54:48.260 --> 00:54:51.239
like dairy revenue protection, DRP, to hedge

00:54:51.239 --> 00:54:53.320
their risk. That's good advice. And they also

00:54:53.320 --> 00:54:55.360
say we can't just rely on Mexico. We need to

00:54:55.360 --> 00:54:57.920
diversify. Look at places like Southeast Asia,

00:54:58.039 --> 00:55:00.239
where there was some S &P demand growth. Exactly.

00:55:00.239 --> 00:55:02.280
We need to think long term. So what's the call

00:55:02.280 --> 00:55:04.360
to action? What does the bullvines say the U

00:55:04.360 --> 00:55:06.710
.S. dairy industry needs to do? They lay out

00:55:06.710 --> 00:55:09.130
three main things. First, we need better price

00:55:09.130 --> 00:55:11.409
transparency. We need to know what's going on

00:55:11.409 --> 00:55:13.230
in the market. They say we should be publishing

00:55:13.230 --> 00:55:16.590
weekly S &P benchmarks. OK. Second, we need to

00:55:16.590 --> 00:55:20.489
innovate, create new products like high protein

00:55:20.489 --> 00:55:23.429
S &P blends specifically designed for what the

00:55:23.429 --> 00:55:25.530
Chinese market needs, like their bakery sector.

00:55:25.750 --> 00:55:28.289
Find those niche opportunities. Exactly. And

00:55:28.289 --> 00:55:31.829
lastly, they really emphasize advocacy. We need

00:55:31.829 --> 00:55:34.510
to put pressure on. policymakers in Washington

00:55:34.510 --> 00:55:37.570
to fight for tariff relief in those trade talks

00:55:37.570 --> 00:55:39.869
with China. Yeah. Make our voices heard. Yeah.

00:55:40.010 --> 00:55:42.110
So this really shows just how interconnected

00:55:42.110 --> 00:55:44.510
the global dairy market is. Yeah. How quickly

00:55:44.510 --> 00:55:46.929
things can change. It absolutely does. And the

00:55:46.929 --> 00:55:49.530
key takeaway here, the big one, is that the U

00:55:49.530 --> 00:55:51.909
.S. dairy industry has got some serious challenges

00:55:51.909 --> 00:55:53.670
in China right now. It's not just one thing.

00:55:53.690 --> 00:55:55.769
It's the pricing. It's China's self -sufficiency.

00:55:55.849 --> 00:55:58.289
It's how strong our competitors are. And that

00:55:58.289 --> 00:56:01.619
brings us to the bull vines final warning. It's

00:56:01.619 --> 00:56:03.860
a bit ominous, but they say New Zealand and the

00:56:03.860 --> 00:56:06.099
EU, they're basically reshaping the rules of

00:56:06.099 --> 00:56:08.940
the game in global dairy trade. And the question

00:56:08.940 --> 00:56:10.780
for everyone listening for the whole U .S. dairy

00:56:10.780 --> 00:56:14.179
sector is, can we adapt fast enough to these

00:56:14.179 --> 00:56:17.440
changes? Can we keep up or are we going to get

00:56:17.440 --> 00:56:20.659
left behind? The bullvine, they put it pretty

00:56:20.659 --> 00:56:22.280
starkly. They say we could become collateral

00:56:22.280 --> 00:56:25.139
damage. That's yeah, that's a sobering thought.

00:56:25.280 --> 00:56:28.460
It shows just how high the stakes are. So as

00:56:28.460 --> 00:56:30.739
you process all this information. Think about

00:56:30.739 --> 00:56:33.579
what it means for the future of U .S. dairy exports.

00:56:34.280 --> 00:56:36.880
What are the big decisions we need to make now

00:56:36.880 --> 00:56:40.219
to stay competitive in a global market that is

00:56:40.219 --> 00:56:43.440
clearly transforming? These are the big questions

00:56:43.440 --> 00:56:45.980
the situation forces us to confront. And those

00:56:45.980 --> 00:56:47.579
are the questions we'll be grappling with in

00:56:47.579 --> 00:56:49.780
the weeks and months to come. Absolutely. Thanks

00:56:49.780 --> 00:56:51.719
for joining us today on this deep dive. It's

00:56:51.719 --> 00:56:53.420
been a pleasure. And be sure to check out The

00:56:53.420 --> 00:56:55.900
Bullvine for the full report and more in -depth

00:56:55.900 --> 00:56:58.380
analysis. Till next time, thanks for listening.

00:56:58.519 --> 00:57:00.400
See you later. And that's a wrap for this week's

00:57:00.400 --> 00:57:03.519
top stories in the dairy world. From biosecurity

00:57:03.519 --> 00:57:06.599
wake -up calls to groundbreaking genetic advances

00:57:06.599 --> 00:57:09.739
and shifting trade dynamics, it's clear that

00:57:09.739 --> 00:57:12.260
every day brings new challenges and opportunities

00:57:12.260 --> 00:57:15.920
for this industry we all love. If you enjoyed

00:57:15.920 --> 00:57:18.440
today's episode, be sure to subscribe, share,

00:57:18.579 --> 00:57:20.760
and stay connected with The Bullvine for more

00:57:20.760 --> 00:57:23.860
timely insights. Until next time, keep those

00:57:23.860 --> 00:57:26.780
herds healthy, those milk checks flowing, and

00:57:26.780 --> 00:57:29.329
that optimism alive. Catch you later.